More than one commenter reports that Paul Bongiorno has indicated on the Channel Ten News has reported tomorrow’s Galaxy poll at “52-46”, a most unfortunately timed slip of the tongue. We will presumably know soon enough whether he meant 54-46 or 52-48.
UPDATE: Thanks to Adelaide readers for confirming it as 52-48.
| TWO-PARTY | PRIMARY | ||||
| ALP | LNP | ALP | LNP | ||
|
Nov 23
|
52 | 48 | ? | ? | |
|
Nov 4
|
54 | 46 | 45 | 42 | |
|
Oct 19
|
53 | 47 | 45 | 43 | |
|
Sept 24
|
56 | 44 | 46 | 40 | |
|
Aug 27
|
57 | 43 | 47 | 39 | |
|
July 30
|
54 | 46 | 44 | 41 | |
|
July 2
|
55 | 45 | 46 | 41 | |
|
June 4
|
53 | 47 | 44 | 42 | |
|
May 14
|
57 | 43 | 49 | 39 | |
|
April 23
|
58 | 42 | 49 | 37 | |
NOTE: Please exercise some common sense when speculating on poll results in comments. For the love of God, do not leave comments like “ACN 50-50″ and then, 10 minutes and 115 comments later, say “oh sorry, that was only a prediction”.
147 Comments
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Has Galaxy come up with this 52-48 in their polls in the last, say, 6 months?!?
If this just another fresh poll (with 1-2k sample size), I wouldn’t take it seriously.
By now pollsters should announce their aggregated poll, weighting over the last few months. That would be more convincing.
Except it’s not possible for the ALP to win by more than 100 points…
I would need to see the primaries first to see if 52-48 result reported in Galaxy is on mark. Anyway that would still mean Labor winning the election with between 76-78 seats.
3LO melbourne. Ian Henderson (ABC TV News) said “there will be something in the polls for everybody for everyone. One of the polls is narrowing and the other is widening.”
It’s great to see the tory supporters building up hope. Oh, the let down is going to be tremendously bad for them now. At least if you feel you have no hope you can steel yourself well before hand.
Glen, when it ends up ALP 53/47 they still will be
Yeah, William.
Trollbludgers.
i liked morgan’s 62-38 better
I probably won’t know the result as it happens im scrutineering but it shouldnt take so long before Antony Green is telling Labor supporters not to jump off bridges because the early results are from rural booths with conservative voter bases lol!
Ah, I remember ‘04 and Newspoll came in at 50/50 the day before… didn’t that make for extra fun on election night?
Galaxy has always been the low mark for Labor and ACN the high mark. Average them out and you’ll be close to the mark. I can see a 53 plus for Labor coming up. A comfortable victory.
59,
Go to the ABC site and sign up for Antony’s service that will send results to your mobile
…. My husband is handing out HTV cards and scrutineering and that is what he is doing to keep in touch 
The Daily Telegraph which commissioned the Galaxy Poll has endorsed Labor.
The confidence, the sanity, the wisdom…DT moment of zen…
Loved the house for sale on Domain jimbob! May be vacant in a week.
For gods sake when is the left going to get its act together and realize we are in for the fight of our life. It makes me sick to think of the YR@W volunteers slogging it out in the marginals and then to read the triumphalisim and hubris from many of the commentators, 85 seats, 9896 seats whatever. All the polls are bullshit probably even this one.
This election is to close to call, for the last to weeks the ALP primary has been trending down, and now this poll confirming the trend though I don’t believe ALP has fallen to 52% the TREND is clear. Weird things are happening first Comitatus ground breaking results to detect the large swings in the safe seats. Then the Neo Liberal comeback on the western front. This election has come down to vicious guerilla warfare in the marginals with no prisoners taken.
ALP@52 is still a win, and if true for Bennelong, it puts Maxine in, I’ll take that!
Julie cheers, although my mobile phone is an old piece of shiat so i cant do it
All ill miss is the Tassie results and a glum looking Barker in Braddon banging on about the Mersey lol
Oh and Antony’s early results from rural NSW where they have massive swings to the Nats and Antony tells Labor voters not to jump off bridges hilarious stuff lol!
Where do I sign up for Anthony Greens results service? Can’t see it on ABC election site
If this is a fresh poll I would take notice; if it is not it is not worth concern – AC Nelson should be interesting
I listened to Howard today at the Press Club – he was asked a question around building bridges with the Muslim commuity if he was re elected. His response was very interesting he went in to a spiel about terroists – he was not asked about this!!! The man plays on peoples fears – muslims / terroists!! Howard politics 101
68,
I will post the link in about 10 to 15 minutes. I have to go to another computer and get it out of sent mail ……. I sent it to my husband at work earlier this week
Glen your phone is old piece of shit
You are not one of Howards battlers are you ?
68 – Hit the “Mobile” tab at the top of the page at ABC Elections
Ahh cool… although I may have found it… like an ABC election application
Yeah, thanks guys!
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/coverage/coverage.htm#mobile
K Jin my phone is not even in colour lol meh it does the trick.
74,
sounds like you have it now, but for the record -
http://www.abc.net.au/mobile/
Has anyone seen any printed confirmation of this result, or of the details of the alleged Galaxy poll (sample size? Full national or marginals? etc etc)
Cheers
Rod
PHEW and I thought it was 50/50
You had me worried for a moment
52/48 is a much nicer set of numbers
52/48 was my prediction. It certainly backs a close election result. There will be no landslide.
forget the polls gentlemen
stick with the punters, they are correct all time time
the they say $1.2x / $4.x
Is 52/48 the new 50/50 or the new 49/51 ?
Apparently the 55-45 ACN result was mentioned on radio national… according to a commenter on possum’s blog.
@ Ashley: I heard that too. A big difference
OMG 57-43 Neilson
@Ricky: Holy WTF, where did you hear that?!
Apparently Channel 7 just said ACN is 57 to 43 to Labor
According to Prime News in Canberra (14 point gap)
Ill take that one on Saturday!!
Brilliant result!
52-48 will keep the punters honest, and result in a firming of ALP vote
Plus Galaxy was unquestionably push polling with the “close to unions” question.
ACN is the better poll; and it looks big.
Landslide coming.
@Ricky: Cheers for that. How on earth can the two ‘best’ polls have such a gargantuan gap between them!? This is crazy :S
I picked ACN for 57! I WIN! I WIN!
roll on the annihilation.
Shit, I was just joking early about ACN being 57. Woooooohooo!!!
Everyone will be laughing at galaxy coming sunday.
you guys could’ve made a few bucks with betting on the polls
Hey folks, come and join us over on the 57-43 ACN thread. It’s much more fun than the nasty 52-48 galaxy thread.
there are 2 threads opened at the moment, I don’t wanna miss either of them. But it’s a pain to follow 2 threads at the same time
Will be interesting to see what happens with the bookies tomorrow, with such a discrepancy we could see the ALP firm even more or a *teensy* LNP comeback. Either way, I hope the LNP is routed come Saturday.
Maybe I’m just cynical, but I can never fully shake the feeling of waking up on Sunday seeing Howard, Costello, Abbott etc all beaming on the TV set announcing “Workchoices: The Empire Strikes Back”
52/48 from the most reliable pollster out there (I know, that’s not saying much, but still…)
And the Tele has endorsed Labor? What a surprise! Of course its wet-behind-the-ears editor Penberthy is going to endorse wet-behind-the-ears Krudd. Big deal.
bull butter
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