Time for a new thread. Here’s a chart showing state-level swings to Labor as recorded by Newspoll throughout the campaign. Note that the most recent result seems to indicate a mild Coalition recovery in Victoria being offset by worsening results elsewhere.
620 Comments
Bull butter.
“Note that the most recent result seems to indicate a mild Coalition recovery in Victoria being offset by worsening results elsewhere.”
No problem there, very happy with that!
Is it just me, or does the 11/11/07 datapoint look the odd one out?
Why, Glen?
George wouldn’t that mean it would be tough for the Laborites to pick up seats in VIC?
If you discount the 11/11 in Vic result the trend there actually looks pretty consistent.
Glen says bull butter to any poll he doesn’t approve of.
Socrates…from the previous thread.
“Serenity Now, Insanity Later”
Glen Says: “George wouldn’t that mean it would be tough for the Laborites to pick up seats in VIC?”
and your point is? Do you think this is a prerequisite for winning the election?
Those happy lines remind me of something from earlier in this campaign. What is it? Um. Oh yeah, that’s right THE WORM (TM)!!!!
Glen,
It’s still a 7% swing to Labor in VIC – more than enough to pick up the 4 seats they want…
someone was asking on the thread which just closed about Hughes. Dana Vale won’t hang on. People there are upset with her and she has promised 1 million to upgrade a local sports oval. You know that they are in trouble when they promise pork to the constituents
……
Out at the prepoll today, in solid Costello territory (his office is across the road). The greens candidate is there, as is the democrats. You can pick the liberal voters from a mile, old, badly but expensively dressed. Funny enough 1 in 3 are coming from outside the electorate roughly.
Oh and I think Kellygate won’t go down well in Forrest, with a large number of Muslim folk working in the meatworks in Kattaning either.
Look! Squint hard and you can see the n-a-r-r-o-w-i-n-g!
frank frederic @ 1045 in previous thread-
‘betting markets delsert Howard by the day
Best offer for both parties is at BetFair: 1.24 / 5′
Such a narrowing of the betting market has always been on as we get very close to the day. The big money will wait until the polls are incontrovertible. Perhaps it started a bit earlier this time in the overall result due to the extra consistency. The delay is especially obvious in the seat by seat betting, where events in the campaign can make a big local difference, whereas the overall market is more predictable and therefore more reflects the poll trend. That is also why the individual seats are – even now – where the value is. (except Lindsay now!) Better get on quick though.
Glen, not really. Punching a 6.5% swing into the calculator they still lose 6 seats there.
Frank Calabrese do you have any proof that Muslims vote for the Liberal Party anyway?
do people really beleive that the alp is going to get more than 50 2pp in qld?
centaur,
Don’t know if you saw this, you were very quiet on PB yesterday. Peel back a number of threads to “Morgan – Liberal swing in the Perth Marginals” …. post #36. That was my answer to your astrology question of Tuesday night. Cheers
But Friends and co-workers probably do.
Swings aren’t uniform NB you could get swings in Menzies, Wanon and Indi and not pick up any of our marginals. Still i think Fran Bailey is in trouble.
I hear a mosque will be built where Costellos office is. Can anyone verify this?
the alp already has a majority of seats in vic, so time for the other states to do something.
I like Galaxy polls in my opinion they are the best. I remeber Kina saying that she was watching AC Neilsen as they were close to the mark in 2004 but for me its Galaxy.
Hey congrats to Grover on the other thread for re-naming the Liberal campaign:
“Sham-paign”
(Although the alternative spelling is also allowed: “Sham-pain”!)
So raise your flutes, and toast Dennis’s winning effort to get the Rodent re-elected!
hmmm, this Sham-paign is as sweet as victory!
# 5 Glen Says: November 22nd, 2007 at 2:26 pm
It would if the swing was uniform Glen… but that isn’t going to happen.
Higgins is going down.
Well lets wait and c 4 2nites Galaxy poll b4 we get 2 xcited about a meltdown.
Centaur, I will be handing out how-to-vote cards in Higgins on Saturday. Will be doing what I can to produce a healthy swing away from Costello.
I know Glen, but you’d have your head in the sand to think that with the kind of swing shown they wouldn’t lose at least 4.
LOL… I can see why you libs supporters are all climate-change deniers.
JoM, the Galaxy was the closest on 2PP. ACN was pretty accurate on primaries but overestimate Coalition primary support.
I’d say both are worth a look in. ACN for Labor primary, Galaxy for 2PP.
28,
“Well lets wait and c 4 2nites Galaxy poll b4 we get 2 xcited about a meltdown.”
I have news for you. The meltdown is already in progress
[i.e PAST tense 
]
centaur_007 Says: “I hear a mosque will be built where Costellos office is. Can anyone verify this?”
That’s what it says on the pamphlet I have here – next to it will be a heroine shooting gallery, then a union bosses lounge, and just a little further than that a fairy shop.
Noocat you should be in LaTrobe or Deakin where your help could cause an upset, Higgins will not fall.
At least im at a Liberal booth in Mt Waverly i wont get spat on like i would should i be at a booth in the western suburbs lol!
“do people really beleive that the alp is going to get more than 50 2pp in qld?”
Yep – Beattie got 54.5% at the last state election so why not?
I cannot wait to ask some questions of the liberal volunteers on Saturday.
-”Vote Liberal. Here, have a how to vote card.”
-”Is this a real one or is it faked?”
If Howard and Costello both lose we can declare the current Liberal Party dead.
A new one will have to be reinvented.
Edward StJohn Says: “Well lets wait and c 4 2nites Galaxy poll b4 we get 2 xcited about a meltdown.”
so we’re finally letting go of any change of narrowing are we?
only if it was uniform NB and that is unlikely, election night will be full of surprises
Glen is one of those people who believes that if you say something is so, it is so.
how many times have they got more than 50% 2pp in queensland, once I think since ww2. it will still swing big, but i doubt they’d get more than 50%. I hope im wrong!
2GB and 2UE talkbacks both spinning the race-hategate and NPC appearance furiously. Anyone pro-Lib allowed to ramble on whilst anyone anti gets short shrift.
Heavy criticism of the ALP’s Voting Card mailout as a “dirty trick”.
BV they are real if they are authorised simple answer to ur question.
It’s alright Glen I am in La Trobe and will be working to get rid of Jason Wood………consider it my civic duty.
-”Vote Liberal. Here, have a how to vote card.”
-”Is this one authorised or one of the ‘other’ Liberal publications?”
Geepee…so?
Re Galaxy at the last election
Yeah, they were the closest last election on 2pp but only because in the lottery of where a poll falls within the MOE they happened to land closest to the actual result. They’ve been dining out on it ever since but the fact that they did so is of absolutely no significance. All the other polls bar Newspoll with their dodgy formula got the 2pp within their MOE.
What Galaxy result would make the Liberal Party hopeful? 52/48 or below? Or will you be happy with 53/47?
I have a feeling we’ll probably get a 53/47… but I won’t be surprised with one point either way. No chance of a 55/45.
I’m with Glen on one point, I think people will be surprised on the night just how close it is.
Watched bits and pieces of the PM’s Press Club address (I’ll watch the whole thing later). There’s no one in politcs better at fielding questions from pestilent hacks than the PM. At one point one smug little specimen noted the presence of Mr Howard’s grandson at the Liberal launch and then wondered whether he worried about future generations and the effect climate change would have on Angus’ generation. The PM responded by saying that Angus spoke to him often about greenhouse gases.
Brought the house down. The grub who’d asked the question – Ben Packham – flopped into his chair and looked very sulky.
Swings in Vic and NSW are underestimated by Newspoll, as they always give 61% of minor prefs to Labor. With Greens on 8% in NSW and 9% in Vic, add a point to Labor’s 2PP in those states. However, in Qld, where Greens only have 3%, subtract a point.
Well i am in Chisholm damn that Anna Burke! Bring back Michael Wooldridge!
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=state&national=0&nsw=7&vic=7&qld=11&wa=5.5&sa=9&tas=5&act=5&nt=5&retiringfactor=1
to Liberal staffer on HTV card –
“is this a core or non-core HTV card?”
LTEP AC Neilsen primary
Coalition = 43%
Labor = 47%
I’m hoping the ALP primary vote is biggest in safe Labor, Liberal seats
Caroline It Is OVERington has a new blog up.
I haven’t read but I get the gist from the headline and thought I show her my support – below
Little value in a Priceless election
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/coverington/index.php/theaustralian/comments/Little_value_in_a_Priceless_election/
“I totally agree with you Caroline. What was really needed was more dirt, sleaze, titillation and mindless fluff. And you provided just that.
I nominate you as the outstanding troll of the campaign, sweetie. You indeed made my day every time you post. Love your work. Keep it up and don’t let those naysayers put you off your important contributions to the national debate.
I have to make one final qualification however and that is the immense passion evoked over the “phamphletgate affair” which is vying for top spot against your “shag for story gate”.
LTEP a 52-48 poll and anything could happen but anything at 55-45 and well that’s gonna be tough.
Mr Speaker……hahahahahahahahaha
Fat chance of that mate.
glen, i thought you said you were in melb poorts?
-”Vote Liberal. Here, have a how to vote card.”
-”Is the ‘Liberal Party’ listed on this card a real organisation or a made-up one like the ‘Islamic Australia Federation’?”"
Steven Kaye @ 50, yes there will be a new question in the next poll asking:
“Who do you think is better managed at fielding questions from pestilent hacks?”
John Howard will get 55% of the vote and go on to win the election! (snort, snort, snoooooort)
Glen I haven’t seen anyone getting spat on before, but I did see an Asian man go ape at the liberals this morning. We had to calm him down, it was quite a sight.
Got to go back for more sultanas…back to booth.
See you all 2nite.
George I really enjoyed our lunch and I’m looking forward to our celebratory drink/dinner/banquet after
“Noocat you should be in LaTrobe or Deakin where your help could cause an upset, Higgins will not fall.”
Well, someone has to be there. We can’t let Costello have a free run.
I can’t see what all the fuss is about.
It was obviously a non-core pamphlet.
I am a resident of Melbourne Ports but i am assisting at a booth in Chisholm handing out HTV cards.
-”Vote Liberal. Here, have a how to vote card.”
-”Does this how to vote card have any ‘pranks’ about Bali Bombers on it?”
centaur_007 @ 63 – can’t wait
I was listening to ABC radio earlier and they took a crew out to Lindsay to monitor reaction on the street. It was overwhelmingly negative, with a couple of lib voters saying they’d reconsider their vote. One guy said that people out west were tired of being taken for fools…
I personally think that the affair (coupled with all the other lib stuff ups) is good news for Labor in those small L Liberal seats they’re after – wentworth, northsydney etc – the more politically attuned seats where questions of ethics might get a bigger run. It could make for some unexpected results on Sat night.
35 Glen. So Anna Burke should wipe your candidate.
Der Krieg ist fast verloren Kollegen, aber es gibt immer noch Hoffnung, dass wir ziehen Sie es aus.
I wonder how many volunteers ring the LNP and cancel out of handing out HTV cards…………I certainly would.
Well not at our booth its a Tory stronghold in the seat
Glen, I think Chisholm will be a safe Labor seat after Saturday LOL
Here is Antony’s authorised version for this poll breakdown:
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=state&national=0&nsw=7.9&vic=7&qld=11.1&wa=5.4&sa=9.4&tas=5&act=5&nt=5&retiringfactor=1.5
100 seats to Labor.
Anna Burke is a wonderful candidate. Does a great job in the electorate.
maybe fairly safe LOL
-”Vote Liberal. Here, have a how to vote card.”
-”Are the ‘tax cuts’ you mention in your flyers really planned or are they like the St Mary’s Mosque?””
Same with the booth I’ll be working at (Highbury South, in Sturt).
But I just figure that means there’s more voters to switch.
Glen Says:”Der Krieg ist fast verloren Kollegen, aber es gibt immer noch Hoffnung, dass wir ziehen Sie es aus.”
Not a chance Glen – it’s lost and you know it.
JHIC
I haven’t read the overington article but I’ve already composed my response:
‘You’re an idiot!”
I’ve been working for Anna for the last 3 weeks.
And I can guarantee Berowra will still be a safe Liberal seat after Saturday, with a trimmed margin.
BV, keepem coming
Also Glen
Du sagst es so ist, natuerlich is es so.
Wir koennen zusammen Deutsch sprechen, und die andere koennen uns nicht verstehen.
But we should speak English …
George nicht unbedingt wir gewinnen können, wird es hart, und es wird eng, aber Sie wissen nie, Wenk Mai zur Rettung kommen, nachdem alle.
meltdown – i want a BLEV
Good work!
-”Vote Liberal. Here, have a how to vote card.”
-”Was the reaction of the candidate for [seat x] to ‘laugh’ when they first saw the Kelly Gang’s flyer? Because that was apparently the reaction she received when she showed it around.”
I did a bit of letterboxing over the weekend. The woman at the ALP campaign HQ in Deakin said that people had been coming in asking if they could help – never helped the ALP before but Kevin Andrews just made them feel they had to do something. Will this latest situation drive more this way?
Andrew Robb Press Release:
“I find it offensive that the senior Liberals have been smeared in this way. If we had done this, you can bet your bottom dollar that it would have been produced on proper printing stock with properly produced photos and logos and the written copy would have been clever and cunning.
To associate the Liberal HQ in any way or fashion to this amateur attempt is offensive in the extreme and any and all of you (you know who you are) should apologise and not just say sorry.”
Gewinnen? Unmoeglich!
I wish I’d learnt German at school!
Glen, nice trick LOL
Thanks, I finished my fourth pre polling stint today.
Glen, Volkswagen Messerschmidt, Junkers and Panzer to you.
Glen Says: “George nicht unbedingt wir gewinnen können, wird es hart, und es wird eng, aber Sie wissen nie, Wenk Mai zur Rettung kommen, nachdem alle.”
You’ve lost me, somthing about winning is hard? But it’s close? …You’re close to being hard?
@Chris B (97)
Hows the pre-polling sound? been getting any wind of what people are thinking?
Don’t worry the only things ill be saying on election night may be in German should we lose, i am sure you’ll find this amusing enough.
Zumindest haben wir den Bürgermeister von Brisbane, wenn wir verlieren.
Chris B? Are you getting any idea of how things are going?
Oh I forgot Porsche.
Yeh – people get spat on – at the Liberal booths.
Das ist richtig George.
We’re all going to learn Madarin if Rudd wins.
Very busy, it’s hard to judge at pre polls. Although have had good comments.
Chairman Rudd
It’s gotta be better than putting up with General Wenck’s infernal ramblings in Deutsch…
Yeah steven Kaye
Only a smug little specimen grub Journo would ask a question to the PM about the future of the planet. His response, as you breathlessly report, (as always) was a Joke. But it brought the house down…well done rodent! Keep churning out all that crap. We’re not going to die tomorrow are we Steven. Got any children?
Sean are you part of a working family?
oi let’s keep it like a poker table, English only. It’s great that some of you speak other languages but how are us lurkers supposed to follow?
Fisher and Ryan falling?
Now that I’d like to see…
Eisene Kanzler Rudd
Democrats MySpace page pulled
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/22/2098036.htm
HAHAHAHAHAAHH
107 Sean The audience was full of Liberal supporters. Didn’t you notice the way they tried to intimidate reporters when asking about Lindsay?
John of M – If the Libs win, I’m going to buy AC Neilsen or Newspoll – they’ll be going cheap!
Ok you guys my shock of the election will be Forde to the National Party.
Glen sagt “Der Krieg ist fast verloren” …. Bestimmt! But it’s not warfare: happily it is an election.
I’ll stop speaking German if Glen does
Alex good point.
I’m part of TWO working families.
Also, as of today:
I weigh 80 KG. On day 1 of the campaign I weighed 86.
My goal by election day was 79, but 80 is pretty good.
Glen wo sind der Rathaus?
Natürlich
ShowsOn
Go for 100+ on polling day
“George nicht unbedingt wir gewinnen können, wird es hart, und es wird eng, aber Sie wissen nie, Wenk Mai zur Rettung kommen, nachdem alle.”
Not necessarily, we can win, it will be hard and tight but you never know, General Wank may come to the rescue after all.
This is a translation from atrocious German. If Glen were a dog, he would be a german mongrel.
putting on 20 kgs in 2 days would not be healthy.
John Hunt…google translate can only do so much lol!
for those interested?
and the letter is weirder than the lindsay crap
http://voiceoftheshire.blogspot.com/
113 Chris B – Did you see the furious glare on Michelle Grattan’s face directed at rent-a-lib when they heckled her for asking another question about the Lindsay fiasco?
So has Kevin07 got up off the floor ans stopped laughing yet?
Google is a german mongrel dog
Having all those Libs cheering did more harm than good.
The journalists couldn’t help themselves im glad she and others got a kick in the pants for not sticking to the issues.
When it rains it pours…
The Commonwealth Bank has announced that they will be increasing home loan interest rates AGAIN. They have already increased them in response to last weeks rate rise, so this will be on top of that! No mention of how much the rise will be though. How many nails are in Johnny’s coffin now?
Issue du Jour Glen – PamphletHateMuslimsGate
Glen
Are you saying the Lib muckraking in Lindsay is not an issue?
If you think what the tories did in Lindsay was bad that was nothing compared to this.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUKL1391837120070913
Muslims irked by Italian senator’s “pig” comments
“A far-right Italian senator outraged Muslims on Thursday by calling for a “Pig Day” protest against the planned construction of a mosque in northern Italy.”
Can I just say this – the GG is for turning!!!
Have you all noticed the not so subtle shift in the last few days?
Glen,
Stop shooting the Messenger.
Howard is dead, kaput, finished.
and how ironic that the candidate for Lindsay was a former Police Officer, and Kelly was in the airforce.
Great morals there.
Funnily enough ESJ I am and I really can’t get enough of the phrase. Rudd I think is underutilising it. What with both parents being absorbed into the workforce with no attendant compensation, child care that costs a fortune, the fact that user pays is the predominant Howard ethos and AWA’s are set to force our noses to the grindstone even more I think its an accurate description of the modern family – maybe not in vaucluse though.
Not an important one no, managing the economy, IR, climate change, national security they are more important Geepee.
Glen @ 135, why are you talking about Italian politics?
Isn’t it funny that in what is likely to be John Howard’s last parliamentary speech, he was defending the government against a dirty tricks campaign, yet it turned out to be completely true.
gusface: The letter sounds like something straight out of the EB.
BV Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 2:35 pm
-”Vote Liberal. Here, have a how to vote card.”
-”Is this one authorised or one of the ‘other’ Liberal publications?”
I’ll be greeting them with “Ala akbar!”
The Australian doesn’t manage the economy. There are no levers left Glen, Hawke and Keating got rid of them because they were holding us back.
Glen,
1 managing the economy – f*cked up skills, inflation, interest rates
2 IR – not sure why you would bring this up, but hey, it’s your funeral
3 climate change – again, your point?
4 national security – Australia is the Control of Maxwell Smart fame
“they are more important Geepee.”
Agree with you
130 ShowsOn Yes I did, and I also wondered whether some reporters were intimidated.
Glen – after consuming a huge amount of celebratory grog on Saturday night, I’ll probably be speaking Russian and blogging in syrillics!
George – it is an easier thing to do than trying to defend the indefensible
The reporters have a good way of coming back in the articles they write over the next 2 days.
Glen @ 131 – [The journalists couldn’t help themselves im glad she and others got a kick in the pants for not sticking to the issues.]
They weren’t journalists Glen – who among them would dare heckle the matriarch of political commentators and risk that look? Not even GS or GM.
Wouldn’t be funny if the reporters when they get back to work go “you know what? f#@k em” and type what they really think of the LNP.
Well Grattan wasn’t intimidated thats for sure, if fact Old man J up at the dias was shitting himself cos he could see she wasn’t impressed, if he could I think Ol J would have told them to shut up.
Between Rob’s google research skillz and the Kelly Gang’s alleged desktop publishing operation, the Liberals seem to support Rudd’s support for laptops and technology in deed if not word.
A comment on the radio by a Lindsay voter. We have always voted Liberal, I don’t know what we are going to do now. We have two days to make up our minds. The person sounded very down.
Glen,
Sledging an icon like Gratten by a bunch of immature Liberal plants is very poor form. I suspect the coverage will be wall to wall shite for the Libs.
I was referring how the journalists couldnt help themselves asking 90% of their questions about Lindsay, im glad Grattan got booed for brining Lindsay up for the 8th time enoughs enough.
Chris B
I admired the fact that most reporters ignored the Howard hoons up the back and asked their questions regardless (did anyone notice that deranged tory David Barnett in the crowd..)
They obviously had trouble selling tickets to the press so the gates were opened to the lib riff raff. Steven Kaye was probably there..
Oh FFS Glen, we have a FREE PRESS they can ask whatever they want.
hahahahh Sean @ 81
no hard feeling mate, in her article “Little_value_in_a_Priceless_election”, Overington talking about missing Matt Price (hence “priceless”) comments/analysis in this election. More or less a “tribute” to Mr. Price
You’re right Glen. They should have done their jobs properly and just asked about Union Bosses just like Rupert’s instructions. Silly of those journos.
Glen she’s just doing her job. This Lindsay story is likely to sell more papers than a discussion of the Libs campaign lines, which noone is interested in.
No Paul is it too much to ask for journos to ask about policy?
will
suspect we will hear more about this one
http://voiceoftheshire.blogspot.com/
- EB is definitely in the frame
what do you think brother glen and elect vessel esj ????
Frank
She’s still an idiot.
LTEP 7 other people asked the same questions she didn’t need to ask another for crying out loud…
First comment is nothing has changed in any polls re the result – a landslide
Second comment re ALLEGED improvement for Labor in NSW and ALLEGED decrease for Labor in Vic is SIMPLY UNTRUE
The previous Newspoll had an UNTRUE few $ lead to Labour in NSW and
an UNTRUE 19% lead in Vic
This poll has merely CORRECTED Newspoll’s wrong earlier state breakup poll
Frankly , the idea of doing a National Poll is correct BUT the subsequent breakup of that National poll into state by state is flawed as the state samples are too small
Irrespective of the above , to use a ‘Ruddism’ …am I happy ?……..ABSOLUTELY
…why ?…..because the correct polling (the National polls) are consistent for Rudd
by a large 2PP margin
They can ask about WHATEVER THEY WANT TO ASK!
Your attitude to the media, and your admiration for Ian Smith suggests you have some sort of deep hatred for democracy.
ShowsOn Says:”Oh FFS Glen, we have a FREE PRESS they can ask whatever they want.”
I think there’s something more to Glen breaking out into German. Meanwhile at the Press Club:
M. Grattan: “Prime minister, on the leaflet that was…”
Glen [Interrupting]: “Grattan! We don not vask unt Fuhrer difficult questions… NEXT!”
Maybe Grattan should have asked JHO if Jackies husband was OK and if he needed counseling after those nasty union bullies stuffed a pamphlet in his and and took photos?
Are you saying that “Mr Speaker” should’ve ruled them out of order!?
jaundiced view @ 127
I noticed that. It was an almost hostile reaction to Michelle having the cheek to ask the question. A strange moment in the whole affair. It was the clapping that got me, too. Last hurrah. The final rally of the troops. Howard’s finale.
Someone earlier on this thread – Stephen Kayke – referred to the question on climate change from a journo grub. Howard responded with basic orifice stuff, which is about the level of a Liberal joke. Howard is certainly a climate-change septic, but knows all about farts …
Glen you personally asked about earwax about 10 times on this very blog. Since the topic at hand today is illegal behaviour by a member of the NSW Liberal Party Executive I think the journos can ask 8 different questions, even if they are similar.
Whew! Now I finally get it. What’s transpired in Lindsay is no big deal, thanks to Skynews’ downgrade of the scandal to merely “questions”. Hope it makes Mr. Howard feel better he hasn’t been deserted by his cheerleading squad on Skynews:
Pamphlet questions
Pamphlet questions
Updated: 15:21, Thursday November 22, 2007
There are reports that the husband of Karen Chijoff, the Liberal candidate for Lindsay, was involved in the distribution of a fake election pamphlet aimed at inciting anti-Muslim sentiment.
165 Glen Yeah, that was great wasn’t it.
Glen,
Yes Glen if it had been Labor caught with dishonest phamphlets I’m sure you wouldn’t expect the jounos to ask Rudd many questions.
loving glen’s posts in german. I feel like the Allies toward the end of WW2, worrying about the Germans wheeling out a secret weapon and grabbing a last-minute victory. Thankfully all Lib weapons so far have either fizzed or blown up in their faces.
34
George Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 2:32 pm
That’s what it says on the pamphlet I have here – next to it will be a heroine shooting gallery, then a union bosses lounge, and just a little further than that a fairy shop.
Hey George.. would thar heroine be Jackie Kelly?
Sure ask 1 or 2 but don’t waste half an hour on that anyway id rather they scrutinise Rudd’s dodgy policies.
It’s a press club lunch. Press = news. News = Lindsay. The Libs have been talking about policy all thru the campaign.
Makes Kelly & co’s shenanigans all the more reprehensible (from the Tory standpoint).
Nicht wahr, Greg?
he he, Gippslander @ 177, I mean heroin of course, but that works for me!
Glen,
Maybe if Howard would confess his crimes the journos wouldn’t need to keep asking.
Yeah it was my favourite part. It will be in my highlights package.
Glen,
And that is why you guys are getting a bollocking.
Just because you have had enough does not mean the story is over. New details emerged as the conference proceeded. Do you think Howard knew that Clijoff’s husband was involved? Of course he did, but made no reference beforehand. By not revealing all up front the story will eke out over the coming hours and days and be far far worse for the Libs overall.
The possibility that the spouses of Kelly and Clijoff could end up in jail is a big story. The fact that the Liberal Director says he has done nothing that wasn’t authorised means there are many aspects of this story to be explored.
It is a nice juicy scandal at the worst possible moment for the Libs as individuals and as a party.
Glen, the dirty tricks in Lindsay are after all the issue of the day, and it was made the issue by the Liberal Party. For Kelly’s husband to be involved when she is known to be close to the PM is a very, very poor look. Then Rattus’s idiot mate Jackie defends it as a prank??
And a new take on an old song for the kiddies out there (just for you Glen mate!!).
the wheels on the bus fall off off off, off off off, off off off,
the wheels on the bus fall off off off,
all around the town.
the engine of the bus goes boom clank hiss, goes boom clank hiss,goes boom clank hiss,
the engine of the bus goes boom clank hiss,
all around the town.
the Rat driving the bus goes WTF,WTF,WTF,
the Rat driving the bus goes WTF,
before election day.
Bye bye Rattus!
Glen your lust for Julie Bishop is sickening
98
Glen Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 2:49 pm
Zumindest haben wir den Bürgermeister von Brisbane, wenn wir verlieren.
You do know that Newmann is a Liberal Mayor of a Council with a Labor majority? Brisbane City may have a budget larger than Tasmania’s but still, the BAC is not a big enough rat hole to accomodate every unemployed Liberal staffer in Australia, (even if Newman didn’t have to ask permission from his other Councillors). Unlike the other bunker escape, there is no Argentina this time.
The Kelly Gang’s effort will be all over the 6.00 pm news today and in all the papers tomorrow. Howard needed that like rabies – he will be kicking a few arses later today. But as someone said earlier here, dirty tricks and lies are part of Howard’s ‘liberal’ ethos, so we shouldn’t be surprised when this type of desperate stunt is perped by his supporters.
Guys, confirming that ALL polling companies are releasing their final analysis overnight. That is Galaxy, Newspoll, Morgan and AC Nielsen.
Anthony Green will be giving special comments on ABC Brisbane radio tomorrow morning with Madonna at around 8.30 covering 3 of those companies the big three’s results (ex Morgan – poor bastards – here’s hoping they get close on the result this year)
Galaxy and ACN have done big polls apparently, and also single seat polling. There will also be releases from Westpoll and EMRS on several state polls.
That should satiate any poll hungry people I think.
Grattan/Oakes/Bongornio are experienced operators – who actually have a brain. They’ve seen it all in 30 to 40 years in Canberra. The Kelly story would have offended them. They see politics as a tough game – but they also know what is acceptable in politics and what is not. Oakes on “Today” will be the same Oakes on the 6pm news – probably the second story, after Bernie Banton. It will be very very pointed.
There is nothing wrong with Julie Bishop.
She’s at least got more brains than Gillard, sure she goes to schools when not invited but she gets there on time.
Julie could be the Thatcher we need should we lose and for the middle aged she aint half bad to look at
enjoy John Hunt lol!
Galaxy results are apparently showing the election as “too close to call”
Stiflers Mum for PM (the Libs Adelaide candidate)
Grooski can you post the site where you got that from please
Socrates
I agree with you it will be a disaster if we lose. But that’s politics for you.
Remember, ‘Serenity Now, Insanity Later’
Glen you conveniently changed the subject
“Julie could be the Thatcher we need should we lose …” Oh FFS!
188 Grooski The full effect of the Lindsay issue may not show up in these polls.
so 52/48 for Galaxy?
Glen sagte
Ja, aber er ist nur im Tunnel!
Galaxy to show 50/50
No site John – spoke to ABC radio people this morning.
As an ALP supporter i really really hope that Julie Bishop is the next leader of the Libs.
190 Glen I thought Howard was a Thatcher.
Bishop may have a chance because she isn’t a muslim. Nah she has no hope with the Libs she’s a woman.
Maybe Kerry Obrien will get mesmorised by those eyes.
So many German speakers. It’s like Monty Pythons Fliegende Zirkus.
Chris B Howie is a man though lol.
208 Glen Isn’t Thatcher?
204 Yes that is why Cossie is all luvvy duvvy with him/her
Glen,
you are getting as boring and desperate as Howard.
Whining about how the journos don’t ask about policy – boo-hoo – poor widdle boi!
I didn’t hear you making those complaints when journos were going after Rudd because of his wife’s business. I didn’t hear you complainging when Julia Gillard’s ANCIENT and irrelevant membership of the socialist forum became news – or are you suggesting that those are policy issues.
I take no issue with your political allegiances – I take issue with the fact that you are a boring, repetitive, whiny hypocrite who knows bugger all about politics, history or public policy. You, Glen are a mindless barracker.
Cool Grooski. When and where will the poll be released?
Loved that comment by Howard that just because Kelly and the new candidates partners were implicated in this mess that in or enlightened society there is now way a woman should be held responsible for their partners sins.
WTF remember Kevin”s wife under attack and having to sell her Australian arm of her business.
Then their was the attacks on Gillard’s ex partner for allegedly dodgy dealings.
Howard = Thatcher……..umm hasn’t she got dementia too?
But Star did the media ask Rudd in questions at the Press Club all of those gaffes and ’smear issues’ no!
Julie for PM
http://aycu39.webshots.com/image/36438/2004995965204485611_rs.jpg
Rudd’s campaign hasn’t used racial and religious hatred to try to win votes.
“Julie for PM” – yeah, not for a while boss.
Galaxy reporting 50-50? So LNP have made up 4 points in as many days?
Glen,
are you familiar with something called the news cycle?
Glen, the bigoted message in the leaflet handed out by the Libs is not a “gaffe” or “smear”. It is shear racism and dog whistling to the red-necks.
Ja
Star. Although I hate to admit it I think Howard’s response to the question was correct. We still have a presumption of innocence, and two wrongs don’t make a right either. However, the feds should be going through their houses right now to get t the bottom of the matter.
Y’all we should be listening to Grooski!
Toby 219 Glaxy 50/50 was my prediction
Galaxy is sligthly biased in their method…
BV Thats great!
Shame the polls released today/tomorrow won’t reflect today’s Kelly gang calamity
Will this be investigated as thoroughly by the Feds like the outstanding investigation into the EB from 2004?
Galaxy = General Wenck or Stiener
John of Melbourne,
I’d like to listen to Grooski, but it’s difficult when people keep asking him questions on a possible Galaxy Poll, and there’s no answer. We don’t have a clue, mate.
225 JHIAC – Ah OK, cool. On 2PP’s I think:
Newspoll – 54-46
Morgan – 54-46
Galaxy – 52-48
Well that is three right wing nutters kicked out of the Liberal party, at this rate there is hope yet.
John Hunt — these results haven’t been released yet have they? Is there really a report saying Galaxy is too close to call?
You’re kidding right???!
Nb
As Howard would put it ”Too wongs do not make a white. “
Bushfire Bill,
How are you going with giving up the smokes?
…… will assume alright and wish you good luck, keep it up 
NB 223
If Haneef had written, authorised and distributed those pamphlets, he would be in an unknown location right now under heavy AFP interrogation…
The final Galaxy won’t be biased. However, I’m not sure whether ‘too close to call’ is based on their seat polling or their national polling.
225 JHIAC
Aaaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrrrrrrgggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhh!!!
I thought that 50-50 was a real poll. I think I just lost the last of my hair…
John Hunt is a Coward,
Would you be so kind as to tell us if you have any other basis for your prediction other than your feelings that Galaxy are “biased in their method”. If you don’t, I don’t understand why you are predicting.
234 Star
Hahahahahahahahahaha
Sorry Ashley – false alarm
it is only my short and jocular prediction
Bitte sprechen Deutsch nicht. Glen, du bist ein twit.
Who said this and where?
Ernest look at the overall trends and where they have been all year
Morgan is Labor Bias
Galaxy is Liberal Bias
Newspoll ok
ACN best
CH7 news tonight “race hate pamphlets”………noooooooooooo
Yeah, Im an ACN man too, JHIAC.
A poll about if the leaflet would change people’s votes. http://www.news.com.au/poll/1,,26697-5031825,00.html
who is ernest?
236 JHIAC
You are right of course, but the reason I’m so happy to anticipate Howard’s demise is that I want to see a return to a more decent society. Not the sick social puppy we have now.
Clearly you don’t understand a fair go for all.
John Hunt — no more short and jocular conversations around here thanks!
Grooski — is your comment about too close to call based on something you heard on the radio or your own opinion? You are yanking my chain aren’t you?
gusface 248 Hemingway
I do i just think its funny that the Greens probably did this.
247 Will – Obviosuly the Young Libs were too busy watching Howard’s speech to sit at their computers and vote 1000 times for the Coaltion like usual.
248 gusface I don’t know but I feel their is an Importance of being Ernest. Couldn’t help myself.
#250
Libs dont like democracy…..eg “race hate pamphlets……..heckling journalists….etc etc”
Re :John Hunt Is A Coward @236
Too extrapolate further – Would the Lindsay candidate and Kelly if they were on temp visas be deported by K Andrews as Minister because of their association with family members facing criminal charges?
the Hun is up to it’s old tricks, trying to spin the Lindsay pamphlet debacle as boozed up lark…
“NSW MP Jackie Kelly’s husband Gary Clark whipped up a dodgy campaign leaflet after a few beers. What’s the worst idea you’ve come up with after a skinful?”
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22802776-662,00.html
THE UNION BOSSES DID IT! THEY ARE COMING BACK!!!
Heres some more AWA stuff to talk about
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,22802626-462,00.html
Re 227,
Wally Says:
No, but the ones released Saturday night WILL reflect it
any idea what time polls will be released tonight, and where they will be first released?
Star @ 234
That was Arthur Calwell. He said it in Parliament as Minister for Immig in 1947:
“Two Wongs don’t make a White”
V funny, if v non-PC
Don’t know if anyone’s commented on this quote.
“Mr Clark asked the Liberal Party to accept his “sincere apology … for the damage done by my actions in preparing and distributing a pamphlet in St Mary’s on Tuesday night,” his letter says.
“I confirm that neither the candidate for Lindsay nor Jackie, nor you, had any advance knowledge of this matter.”"
Um…isn’t he apologising to the wrong party?
A nice one for all of those aspirationals:
http://www.domain.com.au/Public/PropertyDetails.aspx?adid=2006832414
258 Bakunin
Imagine using the booze excuse for vandalising a cementery? Trashing a car? Putting a swastika graffiti on a synagogue?
I wonder if it would wash?
Oh no, it’s the Liberals he needs to apologise too.
Why would he apologise to Labor for sealing their victory?
Bakunin, I posted on the Hun, but I doubt they’ll let it go up:
“Oh, I know what you mean! The other day I got so p*ssed that I took a 4-be-2 and smashed the windows of my local synagogue, then started yelling at some arabs to “go back home” at the train station, before picking a fight with some 10 year old Sudanese migrants …. you mean like that?”
“Oh no, it’s the Liberals he needs to apologise to”, I meant.
gotta love Glen and other Libs complaining about the media. The ONE factor that has contributed most to the Howard is a hero mythology is media bias in his favour. Give me a break
Do go to Musrum’s link @ 264.
It’s a scream.
The Libs only meant to say sorry and not apologise. There is a difference, you know.
Slaughterhouse #5 – 2 days to go
George # 34 a “heroine” shooting gallery? And who will shoot these poor courageous women – a unionist with a top hat a cape and a twirly moustache?
261 Julie. Good one Julie.
I’d be surprised if there was a Newspoll released for tomorrows GG. They usually appear on election day.
OK, has anyone else other than Grooski heard anything about the polls coming out tomorrow?
We’re stronger, prouder and richer than the Muslims: PM
Here’s part of a report on today’s speech at the NPC:
“When it comes to the Murray-Darling plan, we have seen the most disgraceful obstruction from the Victorian Labor government,” the prime minister told the National Press Club in Canberra.
Mr Bracks, who has since been replaced as Victoria premier by John Brumby, withheld support for the plan at a meeting between Mr Howard and the premiers on February 23.
“In a private meeting he said: ‘John, just give me a few weeks. I’ve got to bring a change of attitude inside my own government – it’ll be okay, we’ll sign up’,” Mr Howard said.
“It’s now the 22nd of November and we’re still not signed up.”
It’s interesting to see that Howard is prepared to reveal what was said (or so he claims) in a private meeting when his political life is at stake. I look forward his reaction who others are prepared to say what went on in private meetings with him. His reputation is going to cop a hammering over the next 12 months and he will not be able to claim the moral high ground about the details of private meetings remaining private..
Any changes in the national batting market? That’ll be the key. I suspect now would be the time to jump on the Coalition if you want a good pay-out.
279 – or if you want to throw money away
The Jackie Kelly thing actually made me sick to the stomach. I no longer have any interest in the ALP winning a modest majority so the Libs can keep a parliamentary eye on them. The LNP deserves to lose all the seats they can, they will only have themselves to blame. Check out Kelly trying to laugh it off here: http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=327460 if you want your blood boiled. Stick around for Laurie Oakes’ scathing analysis at the end. Bring on the bloodbath.
I have been watching the markets today too but no movement. Maybe grooski is right about Galaxy getting ready to give labor the heebie jeebies one last time
No movement on betting markets (though I haven’t checked betfair, which always seems to bounce around).
We know from the last election that the final polls were pretty good as far as primaries, stuffed on 2PP and not as accurate as the betting market was.
Musrum Says:
“A nice one for all of those aspirationals:”
http://www.domain.com.au/Public/PropertyDetails.aspx?adid=2006832414
That’s hilarious!
HAHA George – the HUN posted your message!
Are people here saying that Galaxy is showing 50/50???????
Overall or for a particular seat??
Toby @ 285 – never expected that! I thought they moderated those pages.
No Michael, the result is ‘too close to call’. No outcomes known yet.
Was Newspoll 50-50 too close to call on election day in 2004?
Bahahaha. If Galaxy says that they are full of it!
Post election landslide comments:
Howard: Hyacinth is not going to be happy
Costello: Does anyone know where the rodents gone. I want to meet with him alone, in a room, with this baseball bat.
Abbott: that’s bullshit
Downer: Vile ingrates! The aust people deserve a good spanking…
Hockey: can I stop saying ‘union bosses now’
Milne: ‘i never had relations with that man’ (tip).
Shanaghan: ’sets the coalition up nicely to regain office in the year 2020.
Jackie Kelly’s husband: ‘muslim Jehad!!
Brendan Nelson: ‘i voted labor once’
Andrew Robb: ‘we’ll see you in court’
Anyone have some other possibilities…
Would expect no less from the voice of progressive elitism
Glen’s favorite song:
JULIE, DO YOU LOVE ME ?
As recorded by Bobby Sherman
Whoa-oh
Julie, Julie, Julie, do you love me?
Julie, Julie, Julie, do you care?
Julie, Julie, are you thinking of me?
Julie, Julie, will you still be there?
http://www.superseventies.com/sl_juliedoyaloveme.html
http://www.stlyrics.com/songs/b/bobbysherman10358/doyoulovemejulie335886.html
That Domain.com thingy is great!… lol
279 [I suspect now would be the time to jump on the Coalition if you want a good pay-out.]
There is never a good time to back a loser, what have you got against backing winners?
Steve K @ 278,
The water thing was hardly the Victorian Government’s finest hour, though, was it?
The impression I get is that they essentially delayed the process for about 9 months, just to help Rudd win. (Presumably it will all now get sorted out quickly and will be portrayed as a “triumph for Labor’s new Federalism”).
Bracks should come out and say that Howard has verballed him, if that is the case.
Anyone wanna have a go at writing out Howard’s concession speech?
There’s no way Galaxy will show 50-50. I suspect they might even call a 52-48 result too close to call, though I think it should really be 51-49 for a ‘too close to call’ result.
If they really do get a result like that in the final poll, and ACN and Newspoll don’t, Galaxy will lose a lot of credibility if they are wrong.
slartybardfast Says: “That Domain.com thingy is great!… lol”
I’m made a high res copy of it on our xerox here and saved the page for later – good fun
Paul K that could be my favourite but that would gross out the Julie who posts on pollbludger lol.
betfair – someone was asking just a bit ago
alp – 1.24 coalition 4.90
lindsay – 1.01 alp, 7.00 liberal, anyone else 25
They were just blowing off steam.
Where is this galaxy stuff coming from?
Unitl I see the Galaxy poll I will be a doubting Thomas
Toby @297, meaningless platitudes, and short.
And no tears I suspect, he absolutely knows he is gone already.
well 60% of SKY viewers think the Lindsay affair will harm the governments chances in the seat. That probably equates to 90% of the community!!!
I think Howard’s concession speech will be uncharacteristically gracious. He will thank everybody. He will wish the country well.
Then he will say goodbye.
Forever.
Michael — it’s a rumour passed on by Grooski. No idea whether it is true.
Geepee even if he loses he’ll be liked by more Australians than Paul J Keating.
My guess is galaxy will be static at 53; the other will rise a point to 55.
What Morgan blows out to is anyone’s guess.
lol @ Glen
Glen Says: “Geepee even if he loses he’ll be liked by more Australians than Paul J Keating.”
you poor, deluded Liberal voter
The Galaxy Poll is for Higgins.
310 [Geepee even if he loses he’ll be liked by more Australians than Paul J Keating.]
It’s the first thing I’ll have ever liked about Howard when he loses.
Surely the polls will come out saturday not tomorrow?!?!
Everyone loves Keating now, especially the kids, look at the number of PJK fanclubs on facebook.
ruawake, does that mean there is no National Galaxy Poll?
310
Yes, Glen, and the most popular car in Australia has hitherto been a Holden Commodore. But that doesn’t mean it’s better than a Maserati
Grooski reckons they’re all out overnight.
ND there is meant to be a National Galaxy Poll
all Labor party members
Re 301,
Glen Says:
No, not offended
……. that song, btw, was big in America when it first came out and I was about 12 as I recall. I have lived with this one for a number of years 
… and besides, when you guys all mention my name with no surname I know who you are talking about anyways 
So long as ACN stays above or equal to 53-47 I will be confident. If any of the polls comes in at 52-48 I will be a bit nervous, because we haven’t had a poll like that since Rudd has been leader have we?
Geepee @ 308,
Actually (showing my age a bit here) Howard’s 1987 concession speech was the most gracious I can remember (though I don’t remember them all). I don’t think he’s very likely to disgrace himself on the night.
Glen
He’ll lose alright.
And I disagree about PJK. e is still widely admired by many, me inc.
Not many people admire, or even like, Howard.
It’s not even auf wiedersehen. It’s Untergang (or Götterdämmerung)
Glen,
So many Julie’s. So little time.
ruawake Says: “The Galaxy Poll is for Higgins.
”
Is this true?
Madonna King is having a panel discussion on the polls tomorrow at 8:30 am.
Apparently all the major polls will be out. Antony Green is listed as one of the commentators.
Still reckon the polls will be out Saturday
Ruawake: you’re joking! There’s no way anyone would be polling Higgins.
No, it’s another short and jocular comment.
I doubt there’ll be anything tonight. They usually all poll big right up to the last day to get the most accurate reading for bragging rights. Galaxy releasing a national poll today wouldn’t make sense -
George
No sorry.
Newspoll and AC Nielsen put out their last minute polls in the Saturday/election day papers, or that’s what they’ve done in previous years.
Rudd’s interview on after the commercial break on Sky …..
I am not so sure what coverage to watch on Saturday?
ABC -Gillard and Minchin zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
7 – Hockey Kennet, Beattie
9 – Ray and Oakes
?????
Peachy @ 298
” b) The Australian Rain Corp is 75% Swiss-owned, and one of the main if not the chief shareholders in this Swiss company is Turnbull. Therefore his grant of $10 million is effectively a payoff to himself ”
Looks like Turnbull is going the way of the ‘Tirpitz’ – didn’t even get out of the shed for a run.
If it really is 50:50, David Spears will no doubt be crowing about it on Sky.
I assume the Madonna King interview with Green is about the existing polls and the State breakdowns.
Glen @ 310: Will John Howard have a musical written about him? I doubt it.
Julie let me gues what he’s going to say. whilst moving his right arm all over the place
When it comes to…
Working families…
Very mean of Grooski to lob a rumour grenade into the discussion and then leave. Now I am chained to my computer for the next 12-24 hours. Grrrrrr.
I thought we’d already received confirmation a while ago that some were being released tomorrow. Nothing new.
who the f* is madonna king?
Andos the Great Says: “Glen @ 310: Will John Howard have a musical written about him? I doubt it.”
Andos, they already have – it’s called “Springtime for Hitler”
Howard – Keating
Man who wasted boom – Man who created boom
They will be linked forever with Howard the loser who wasted the opportunies Keatings courage created.
Hope Rudd cracks a ton on saturday
Well everybody. I’m off now. Got no work at all done today – my first ever period of posting to this addictive site.
Love youse all (even you Glen, at least you have the civilising trait of speaking German).
Two more sleeps!
Glen: I’d go for a combination of the ABC and Nine.
Channel 7 trying to turn it into some light entertainment Sunrise type program: no thanks!
Glen Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 4:06 pm
Geepee even if he loses he’ll be liked by more Australians than Paul J Keating.
My guess is that after he loses a lot of Howard lovers will realise what an arid dead end he led them down.
Over the last year PJK’s stocks are beginning to rise as the ALP is at last admitting that it was His reforms that enabled the rainbow economy we had… which Howard and Costelloe ruined by looking for the pot ‘o gold from their hammocks.
His overweening pride is slowly being forgotten, and we are again remembering his devestating wit!
Neither will be loved, but PJK will be admired.
“Keating the Musical”
“Howard the ####”……….wont get past the censors
Always watch ABC, nothing else. Hopefully this year we get to see a wry grin from Kerry Obrien, rather than a look of panic and astonishment
Ah, there’s nothing like a bit of poll anxiety. That dreaded 52-48 or worse is circling in peoples minds like a rabid hyena. I don’t think we’re gonna see it..
Madonna King ABC Radio Brisbane 612. http://www.abc.net.au/brisbane
But im going to tape it so i’ve got to choose thats the trouble, ill probably do ABC but those smug ABC journos may give me the red ass if we lose.
Let me guess, Kerry with a beaming smile says and “we’re now crossing to the new member for Bennelong” grrrrrr!
Keating the musical will be rated M 15+ too much swearing!
madonna king is 612 ABC Brisbane. equivalent of 702 ABC Sydney.
345 [who the f* is madonna king?]
Local Courier Mail radio presenter in Brisbane.
Scholars, I thought these might be of interest.
Final Polls
1987 election L/NP ALP
Newspoll 43 (-3) 48.5 (+2.7)
Morgan 44 (-2) 48 (+2.2)
Result 46 45.8
1990 election L/NP ALP
Newspoll 39.5 (-4) 44.5 (+2.1)
Morgan 42 (-1.5) 39.5 (+0.1)
Result 43.5 39.4
1993 election L/NP ALP
Newspoll 45 (+0.7) 44 (-0.8)
Morgan 44.5 (+0.2) 45 (+0.2)
Result 44.3 44.8
1996 election L/NP ALP
Newspoll 48 (+1) 40.5 (+1.8)
Morgan 42 (-5) 43 (+4.3)
ACN 46 (-1) 41 (+2.3)
Result 47 38.7
1998 election L/NP ALP
Newspoll 40 (+0.5) 44 (+3.9)
Morgan 43 (+3.5) 39 (-1.1)
ACN 42 (+2.5) 40 (-0.1)
Result 39.5 40.1
2001 election L/NP ALP
Newspoll 46 (+2.9) 38.5 (+0.7)
Morgan 38.5 (-4.6) 43.5 (+5.7)
ACN 46 (+2.9) 38 (+0.2)
Result 43.1 37.8
2004 election L/NP ALP
Newspoll 45 (-1.7) 39 (+1.4)
Morgan 45.5 (-1.2) 38.5 (+0.9)
ACN 49 (+2.3) 37 (-0.6)
Galaxy 46 (-0.7) 39 (+1.4)
Result 46.7 37.6
Husband of Lib candidate quits over flyer
THE husband of Liberal candidate Karen Chijoff has quit the party after admitting his role in distributing a bogus leaflet in the marginal Sydney seat of Lindsay.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22803398-12377,00.html
Glen promise me you won’t cry on election night. I took 1996 with dignity and I even gave John Howard a go for a few months until he proved himself to be the rodent he is today. I hope you’ll give Rudd a go as well.
love n kisses
ABC all the way. I dont want adverts roooning me evening! 7 reckons they’ll be ad free until the outcome is known. they must have some inside knowledge that is going to be a landslide and they can put the ads on by 7pm.
Have you had a call from John Howard at your place.
Well I have and it sounded so warm and personable.
He’s “gunna” help families with rebates, make home purchasing more affordable and other stuff too. What a guy.
Sorry missed the rest of it as I was dry-retching at the time.
Aristotle – cheers for that. Basically shows what we all know – the polls are rarely, if ever, a true representation of what will happen.
There don’t appear to have been any updates on individual seat odds on Portlandbet for a couple of days now. Anyone know if they only occasionally update these? It would seem unlikely that there wouldn’t have been aby change at all in 48 hours?
Nice image, that about sums it up.
I think it’ll be pretty astounding if we have our first 52-48 result. I’m thinking Galaxy will have us at 53-47. But given the MOE of these polls, a 52-48 result is entirely possible even if the election ends up being 54-46.
I’ll take an average of Galaxy, ACN and Newspoll, with a bit more weight on ACN I think.
Jai-mei if Unca Howie bites the dust i won’t shed a tear because i know what good he’s done for Australia and history will be kind for him at least those histories not written by the rabid left.
The only reason why i wont give Rudd a go is he’s got no experience ill be waiting till he makes a blunder and it wont take long trust me.
Oh and you can be sure if Howard loses he wont blubber like Fraser, John can take it like a man. The question is will Rudd cry if he loses by the barest of margins?
I’ll be watching the ABC for Antony, but Seven is tempting if only for the chance of seeing Hockey lose his seat live on air.
I don’t think it is:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/entertainment/return-of-the-musical-we-had-to-have/2007/04/11/1175971180129.html
What’s going on here?????
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22803410-5001021,00.html
This insanity has to stop!!!
What is the origin of this Galaxy rumour?
And is it a trustworthy sourcE?
If he loses by the barest of margins we probably won’t know the outcome on Saturday night. Close elections can drag for a while…
sky are replaying the Howard interview instead of showing the Rudd interview. what the???
I’m not sure about the galaxy poll coming in that low….will wait and see!!
Happy to see Telegraph is recommending a vote for Rudd – I never thought I’d see the day this tabloid would back the ALP!! I wonder if Uncle Rupert has given them his blessing?
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph
Don’t know how to make the link work – sorry!!
The Daily Telegraph back Rudd! Holy Camoly!
371 Sean
It was a little joke by someone about 2 hours ago – pay it no mind
Bennelong on Centrebet.
Howard 1.63
Maxine 2.15
Sweepstake for Sat Night: At what time will someone say “It’s early days yet”.
“Serenity Now, Insanity Later”
looking at the Tele, I think the whale should be called Kevin07…
Thanks NB at 376, i was fretting!
Wow, the Tele to back A Rudd Labor Government. Hoodathunkit…
Did the Daily Telegrph back Carr before he passed onto Iemma?
The Daily Telegraph backs Kevin Rudd
From: The Daily Telegraph
November 22, 2007
AFTER backing John Howard and the Coalition at every federal election since 1998, The Daily Telegraph will tomorrow recommend a vote for Kevin Rudd and Labor.
In its election-eve editorial, The Daily Telegraph argues that Mr Howard has dealt himself out of the equation by failing to serve a full term – and by denying the democratic right of voters to elect or reject Peter Costello as Prime Minister.
In contrast, it argues that Kevin Rudd has shown a commitment to the future, with better policies for education and the environment – but warns that he must stand up to unions and prevent them from running the show.
367 [Jai-mei if Unca Howie bites the dust i won’t shed a tear because i know what good he’s done for Australia and history will be kind for him at least those histories not written by the rabid left.]
Glen,That’s one explanation but the more likely reason is the delusion.
“It was The Sun wot won it”
News Corp loves nothing better than a winner do they.
The next polls will be the most accurate of this election, although the full effect of Lindsaygate will not be taken into account. It doesn’t help their credibility if their not.
Is this the same Howard who attacked Rudd after Therese’gate’?
I think at 6.30 p.m aedt when the libs have lost all 5 of the act seats
i take back anything bad i ever said against rupe
except for the true stuff
insanity has arrivd earlier than glen anticipated. much earlier.
I shouldn’t be surprised about the Daily Terror backing Rudd. They’ve been gradually backing away from the Rodent recently. Good news for Labor, it’ll help a lot in marginal seats on the outskirts of the Sydney Metro area.
Not sure if anyone posted this before:
http://www.domain.com.au/Public/PropertyDetails.aspx?adid=2006832414
The Daily Telegraph is a commie bolshy union rag of no influence or importance…
always has been and always will be
Murdoch is showing his true colours – CLASS TRAITOR
It didn’t look like a joke to me. It was just someone saying, quite seriously, that the Galaxy result would be ‘too close to call’. There was no clarification of whether this would be in relation to their national 2PP result or the individual seat polling that they’ve been doing.
Why would the Telegraph, which will publish the Galaxy, back Rudd if the next Galaxy is “too close to call”? Why back a possible loser when you have the polling information prior to anyone else?
I call shenanigans on this rumour.
I reckon sitting through hours of Channel 7’s lollipop coverage would be worth it if I got to see Joe Hockey lose his safe seat live on national television.
It won’t change a vote. Nice though
392,
Combined with the Sunday Telegraph, it is worth its weight in gold to Mike Bailey
Chris B @ 387
Actually the next poll has every chance of being as wrong as all those from the last 12 months. Only Saturday night can tell us what people are thinking.
bv
here here
Probably already noted but Laura Tingle on News Radio confirmed it was the Tory rent-a-crowd cheering on Ratty and booing journos with the temerity to ask questions suitable questions and not the News Corp table.
Spears will have his interview with Rudd at 5pm, time just announced on screen …
This pamphletgate could turn a few newspapers.
William can I humbly suggest opening a new thread? This 50-50 prank is getting out of hand.
So if all the polls come out tomorrow when can we expect news of the results?
Will we hear some tonight on Agenda/Lateline?
Betfair odds have narrowed slightly (ie towards Govt) in the last ten minutes.
Could be anything, but interesting in the light of this Galaxy rumour.
Hopefully the wusses at fairfax… I’m looking at you Andrew Jaspan.
50-50 from Galaxy
409
Glen, you are an evil man.
Glen, do you know that about 50-50, or are you just torturing everyone?
If the Galaxy does have it “too close to call”; then Galaxy is wrong.
My guess is it doesnt, and we’re getting odd rumours: probably still 53.
Predictions for other newspapers tomorrow.
I think the SMH in Sydney will sit on the fence and not pick a side, like they did in 2004
The Government Gazette: another plug for Howard, although reluctantly, and only because Rudd wouldn’t retain AWAs.
50-50 from Galaxy in Menzies
409 Glen
Galaxy were polling in Mitchell when they got 50/50.
Dyno.
It was someones opinion, no basis in fact.
Perhaps a 53 from ACN and Newspoll and a 51 from Galaxy. I could imagine that.
That’s the rumour isn’t it Dyno?
and if the markets firm further this would suggest it is a possibility
Further to me @ 407, can a rumour on PB move Betfair?
Glen, do you have any new information to base that on?
396 BV For the last time there is at present no Galaxy poll. It was a joke.
400 slackboy Yes that’s right, but for commercial reasons, it is very very important to get this one right. Maybe bragging rights for the next election, would be another term to use.
Holy shit! Just got word ACN is 57-43!!
Just scaring Glen. I have no idea
At the very worst Galaxy will be 53. It will be 54plus on the night
Dyno @ 419, I wouldn’t be surprised!
Glen, the thread over at ozelections2007 board quoting the supposed Galaxy poll figures was just deleted by the moderators.
so its not true?
Sorry about that bludgers…. As you were…. Statement of regret etc.
Good one Lefty E
Chris B, Grooski indicated earlier there is a Galaxy and the result will be too close to call. Since then she/he has not posted any further. I have no reason to doubt that.
Perhaps Rudd has been trying to warn us all not to get our hopes up? I dunno…
maybe its a bennelong poll?
Until there’s something to back up the claim, we have to regard it as just rumour or someone’s idea of a joke.
Breaking news!
New Galaxy Poll
60 ALP
40 COALITION
If only it were true LOL
so who started the skuttlebut?
DT is backing Rudd??? Wtf is going on? Next there’ll be dogs and cats getting married and talking rabbits!!! ARRRGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!
Just rang Galaxy and they said there is a 50/50 chance that Glen is a cross dresser
The polls have been rock solid all year 55:45. At most they will tighten to 54:46. Stop stressing everyone
Narrow polls tonight/tomorrow would probably be a good thing in some ways for the ALP.
There’s a bit of complacency going around in the electorate. It would be good to stir some people into action, particularly off the back of this race pamphlet saga.
There was always the chance that Howard would get a sympathy vote if it looked like Rudd was going to waltz it in.
Hi all,
Just catching up onthis thread.
Interesting link from Domain.com. I think it is a Deceased Estate up for sales.
http://www.domain.com.au/Public/PropertyDetails.aspx?adid=2006832414
Ice 44 said
I think at 6.30 p.m aedt when the libs have lost all 5 of the act seats
That’ll be some trick seeing as there’s only 4 seats (2 H of R, 2 sen)
Kirribilli ‘for sale’
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federalelection2007/kirribilli-for-sale/2007/11/22/1195321932510.html
It’s made the news!
ALL THE TALK OF “50-50 GALAXY” IS GARBAGE. If youre going to say what you think will happen, please state this. Dont just post “galaxy 50-50″.
Lefty E: Are you sorry but not apologising or what?
Bloody Grooski. He/she started the ‘too close to call’ thing and then left immediately after.
DLP
bit worried about the smell though
11yrs of rattus shite sure is going to leave a pong
437 Misty
“There’s a bit of complacency going around in the electorate.” You have got to be kidding, one word Lindsaygate.
Labor on Betfair now solidly dug in at $1.26. Would take more than $10k to move the price in either direction.
Coalition $4.70. It’s a thinner market, though, so the price could move more readily.
It wouldn’t shock me however if Galaxy is 51:49 and the rest of them are 55:45.
David Briggs isn’t to be trusted!
This election will be a referendum on Glens inability to handle the truth
Where is Mad Cow?
Patterson
1.60 Libs
2.10 ALP
First time poster, after lurking a while.
Didn’t Grooski say (in 201) that the source of his/her “Galaxy 50:50″ rumour was from “talking to ABC radio people this morning”?
If so, how would ABC radio have that much advance knowledge of a Galaxy poll?
Glen
Keating was only ever disliked by the outer suburban punters and Lib hacks like yourself. The ones who generally know jack sh.t about politics and barely watch the news. They can hardly remember him now. The elites that the Howard has spent the last ten years deriding are the ones that get to write history and they’re not going to be nice.
JFC Says: at 37,thread earlier today.
November 22nd, 2007 at 7:38 am
From a small Coorey piece in the SMH, which may be overlooked on such a newsworthy day.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/a-party-losing-its-youthful-appeal-resorts-to-hy
How come the article has the dirty scumbag ad by the disgraceful and disgraced Libs running on that article?
Isn’t there an advertising blackout?
And what does the SMH think its playing at, positioning the ad on that article?
Chris @ 445: Sure the Lindsaygate thing will score some votes.
But have a read through today’s cabby panel on Crikey. There’s been a recurring theme for some time in that that Rudd is expected to win, but people are more and more unconvinced that’s actually what they want.
Hopefully today’s drama seals the deal, but who knows? Can’t hurt to have people galvanised behind the ALP in the fear they make not make it across the line.
Crikey at 450, the blackout applies only to TV and radio ads. Billboards, newspapers and the web are immune. Ridiculous, I know.
CW
No advertising blackout on the internet.
DT backs Labor?! Surely time to put the blue tarp over the Coalition car wreck.
“No advertising blackout on the internet”
There is for me…Firefox + NoScript extension. Magic stuff.
TV without political ads tonight: woohoo!
In my view there is no way that Kevin Rudd can lose this election.
He can almost win it in Queensland alone where the numbers may well be neatly reversed.
The Daily Telegraph has done the sensible thing and backed its readers.
Note the decision was made after consulting with their readers on their blog.
It would look a bit silly of David Penberthy to back the retiring John Howard and then have him lose his seat as well as the election in a landslide.
Obviously Rupert Murdoch, who is becoming more moderate in his old age, would not mind David backing Kevin Rudd.
I believe Rupert Murdoch may well be of the view that Kevin Rudd will be a considerably better PM now than John Howard.
This campaign is the worst Coalition campaign I have seen in thirty five years of politics.
Even if the Galaxy poll shows it to be close it should be discounted. It’s only a single poll. The aggregate of all the polls in the last week would tell a more accurate story.
Also the betting market has always been right.
It’s not a question of whether Labor can win, it’s much more a question of by how many seats.
F*rt Ding F*rt Ding F*rt Ding F*rt Ding F*rt Ding.
Just so you don’t get withdrawal symptoms.
Can someone provide the Sky News internet link for the Rudd interview at 5pm?
Thanks
Murdoch likes backing winners, and more to the point, having it known that it was his support which made the difference. IF, and it is a huge if, the Galaxy is 50:50, is it really beyond the bounds of possibility that a few preference flows and such were meddled with? Result: Tele endorses Rudd, Labor wins massively (which they were going to do anyway), and Murdoch can claim the credit.
Yeah, I know, I’m too cynical by half. But this is KRM we’re talking about.
There’s no way galaxy will be 50-50. At worst it will be 52-48 and the ‘too close to call’ will come from a hocus-pocus analysis of the marginal seats.
This talk about which poll is most accurate is pretty useless.
The way the analysis will go is this:
Poll that favours Labor more will be backed by Labor supporters
Poll that favours the Coalition more will be backed by Coalition supporters
Poll in the middle will be forgotten by all (and will most likely be correct)
We’re now so close to the polls will probably overlap on their MOE (like what happened last time), so it’s all pretty irrelevant anyway – one poll will be as good as another…
Stop being foolish all. No chance of a 50:50. This one is too important for business to be fudged so badly.
what’s this about the odds firming in the govt’s favour?
Richard Jones 457 – Interesting post.
We all sit here and say that the Libs get a good run by most of the media, and that is true. They do. But theyve also been in power for 11 years. Heads of media are hardly going to go to the Opposition, who keep losing elections, to discuss media opportunities!
What is happening is that Howard is basically gone. The journo’s know it. If the Coalition had these polls for 6 months running, then we wouldn’t even be disussing the possibility of them losing.
So, with this in mind, the papers need to position themselves for the next 3 years. You will see a big switch after the election from many typically right-win publications, claiming their ground with Labor.
Michael — Centrebet and Sportingbet are unchanged on the national market.
thanks Ashley – i sort of read bits and pieces on here and find it hard to follow the thread – can be nerve racking
Swing Lowe @ 462
You are usually one of the most enjoyable posters in here, but to be honest I can’t fathom what you’re trying to say in this post 462.
Whoever joked about the 50/50 should be shot. Seriously.
Lefty E, dude, don’t do that. But I accept your apology
39 hours till booths open…….
By the way – the final polls in isolation dont mean anything. Even with small MoE’s. You need to look at them over a period of time. All 3 polls could suggest Labor 51-49 or even 50-50 and I would still be confident of a Labor win.
At 52:48 Labor wins easily. No party has ever lost with 52% of the TPP. In fact no party has ever lost with 51%.
This marginal seat targeting stuff is pure Liberal propaganda to give the impression that they are still in the game despite the polls. It is rubbish, just rubbish.
Sorry it was 467 Swing Lowe
Hemingway,
Looking back at it – neither can I
Um – I guess what I’m saying is that there is no point in arguing which poll is the most accurate, coz partisans (on both sides) will back the poll that favours them.
Ive checked the major betting agencies and there is no change. Labor is low $1.20’s and Coalition early to mid $4.00’s, except Betfair where they are $4.75. Hell, these are fugures we only dreamed about, as with the poll figures.
Galaxy 52/48, with ACN bigger margin for Labor
Just said on Ch 10
Channel Ten news just said Galaxy is 52 to 46 (strange!) but ACN better for Labor.
Yes, as much as Rudd and Howard sound sincere in their earnest assurances that it will be a tight contest, you really have to discount such talk as self-serving. The polls have consistently pointed all year to a Labor win. The betting agencies are pointing in that direction and the “vibe” suggests it will happen. For there now to be an upset Howard victory just defies logic. But nothing is certain, especially in politics, and I would counsel those here getting excited about Howard’s long-awaited political demise to keep the champagne on ice for another 48 hours
Thanks Swing Lowe, thought I heard 52-46 which made no sense
Michael,
Betfair has firmed slightly (for Howard). It’s the site where the punters set the odds, so on the one hand it’s (in a sense) the most accurate up-to-the-minute reflection of what the whole market thinks, but on the other hand it jumps around a lot.
I don’t think it’s all that significant at this point. It could just be profit-taking, ie people betting against Labor who previously backed them at better odds, and can now lock in a profit.
I’ll say something if there’s a big shift.
10 said 52 per cent to 46 (wtf i know, its what he said), while AC has the ALP further ahead.
This kellygate is terrible for the lnp, they deserve the mother of all canings for this rubbish.
Actually, I heard 52/46, but I thought that Ch 10 had made a mistake…
So at worst it’s 52-48, at best 54-46
So is it 54 or 52 then? which part is the mistake?
Channel 10 and Paul B. really hammered the Lindsay pamphlet scandal with two separate reports.
52-48 Galaxy, 2 days out from the election? That means Newspoll and ACN will be at LEAST 54-46
I’m going with 52/48 – it fits in with the rumours we’ve been hearing all afternoon…
yep he said 52/46
Galaxy 52:46 according to Channel 10.
Galaxy Poll: 52 to 46
Ten News.
I refuse to anlyse a poll which doesn’t sum to at least 99.
Re my 450. That link has disappeared.
Thanks guys. Then Kevin better add yet another to the ‘continuous barrage of laws, rules and regulations’, as B Bishop suggests.
Ah.
New link to article:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/a-party-losing-its-youthful-appeal-resorts-to-hysteria/2007/11/21/1195321867182.html
Given that many people now rely on this blog for information I think we should at least make it clear when we are just guesstimating what the polls could be.
I heard 52 46?? But the other poll has a wider gap.
Maybe it’s 52/46 with 2% undecided – unlikely though…
News Flash!
Kevin Rudd will announce another new policy during his victory speech on Saturday night.
The new policy will reduce Australia,s carbon footprint and ensure that our future is in good hands forever.
All coalition voters will be granted assisted passage to anywhere they choose, outside Australian territory.
Surely you can tell which it is meant to be by the context of what they were saying. A 52-48 result would be a pretty significant result for the media, whereas 54-46 would be all-over-red-rover.
No, GB, this is what Ch 10 said
Channel 10 have lost the plot.
They mustve meant that Labor has 52 of the 2PP and 46 of the primary?
areaman @ 389
News has pig-brain “readers” to shepherd.
He said 52/46. ACN worse. The news report was an absolute shocker for the Libs.
52-46 hey?
Trust Ten to be first with the news that counts – not!!!
492
I’m with you Swing Lowe, more likely to be 52-48. I reckon 46 just slipped out because hes been saying it all year.
What was the tpp in the last galaxy before this one?
Michael — it was 53-47
so it’s barely a change then
News Bulletin
Rattus and Hyacinth are passionate animal lovers and have lots of creatures big and small at Kirribilli house. The downside of course is that Kirribilly is severely pest infested and there are layers upon layers of dog poo. The value of the property has deteriorated significantly to the point that it has been declared unfit for human habitation. No humans have been able to cope with the stench and so it won’t be declared liveable for the foreseeable future.
The Rodent Removal Pest Control company will commence major excavations on the 24th November 2007.
Estimated work: $500,000
Time: 6 months
ACN worse – so AC Nielsen has 51-49 or 50-50!
All over red rover for Krudd!
53 – 47, excellent. No change then. Landslide territory.
No, Nostro – worse for the Libs!
Margin is bigger in ACN…
I can live with 52 from Galaxy, if true. Means ACN will be 54!
And yes, sorry about that all – but the 50/50 crap was pissing me off.
If he’d meant 52-48 he would have said something like “but Government surging back” or some bullsh-t. I dare say it’s 54-46.
If not, it’s another shameless rouge released by Galaxy, just when the Coalition needs it most. I didn’t think they’d try that stunt so close to the election – but if they do it’ll be great to see them finally discredited on Sunday morning as being further out than Morgan!
Not only is it in MOE, it can be a rounding error here or there, especially taking preferences in to account.
GB, assume it is 52/48 until we hear more…
514 Nostradamus – somehow I think they may have meant worse for the government.
Are the other numbers out yet? Can someone summarize in one concise post the actual numbers released so far? I am confused by the numbers listed so far. They don’t add up properly …..
When was Galaxy taken, how big is it, blah, blah, blah?
Labor won’t mind a 52-48…. staves off talk of a landslide.
Numbers noted by Ch 10:
Galaxy 52/46 – yes I know it doesn’t add up to 100, but that’s what they said.
Also said the Labor lead in ACN was BIGGER, but didn’t say what.
Why doesn’t someone ring Channel Ten and ask them? Be sure to use words of one syllable, though.
Summary:
Galaxy either 52/48 or 54/46, Ten reported it in a confusing way
ACN no-one knows but Ten said worse than Galaxy (for the Govt it seems)
He said ACN was worse for the Liberals
Julie, all we’ve heard is apparently Ten news said 52-46. No one exactly sure whether they meant 52-48 or 54-46 (or 52-46 plus 2% undecided??).
Galaxy polls should be taken with a pinch of cyanide.
524 Ashley – do you ACTUALLY know what the Galaxy poll figures are?
OK, so Ive now been told that Galaxy is ACTUALLY 54-46, not 52-48… and that ACN is worse. This is unconfirmed info. ANyone know?
I didn’t see the news but it could also be 52 2PP, 46 primary.
GB – we’re just repeating the numbers said on Ch 10
52 -48 Hung parliament according to Ozpoll calculator
Are we sure it wasn’t 50 to 46 on primaries?
Just called channel 10 newsroom, they’ve said they’ll correct it later in the bulletin. Wouldn’t tell me what it was though
Bloody Hell
I wish Ch10 knoew how to count to 100
Now we’re just running around in circles….
RA, I don’t know if it’s primaries or TPP, but the numbers said was 52/46 (seems more likely to be TPP though)
Yes, John – well and truly hung
Yes but did she say
“Fifty-two to forty six”
or
“Fifty to forty-six”
Do you see the distinction?
No!! I’m hanging out for someone to tell us. Just saying that Labor wouldn’t mind 52-48 too much because it will stop people thinking about a landslide and voting against them.
Doesn’t matter, anyway.
Just heard researcher reporting on ABC local radio 891 her findings that Liberal Ads most disliked by respondents, for their anti-union and negative, long winded content.
Sloppy reporting on Ten’s behalf, but 52-48 sounds about right, especially if they are also saying that the margin is bigger for Nielsen.
OK – let’s just wait until the correction is issued…
Come on everybody. Could we please get the numbers right.I don’t know weather to jump for joy or jump off a chair?
It was a slip of the tongue by bongornio. Apparently, the primary vote with galaxy is tied between the ALP and coalition, and the final figure is supposed to be 52-48.
541 RA
It was definitely 52-46 and a mistake by the reporter according to CH10
Here’s an idea – let’s wait until we have actual confirmation!
Or we could speculate wildly about different ways of saying different strings of numbers…
Ring Mike Larkin (the overly-friendly idiot weatherman) at Channel Ten and ask him. He would have more clue than anyone in the entire news department IMHBCO.
NB 548 — huh?
Coota, got a source?
Either it was 52TPP and 46 primary (doubtful), or 52-48TPP (probable).
We have our first ingredient for tonight’s poll cocktail, it is slightly bitter, the sweet stuff to follow!
I don’t think that the DT would jump in the Labor pool if they thought they were going to drown.
Coota Bulldog,
Where did you get that info from?
52-48 is as rouge as they come. No doubt Galaxy will try and explain away the different on Sunday as it being down to the Kelly race-smear leaflet…
“Are we sure it wasn’t 50 to 46 on primaries?”
RA, VERY unlikely. That would only leave 4% for minor parties and undecideds.
547 – Coota Bulldog: How can the primary vote be TIED? No chance. Surely…?
Source?
Toby — could be 44 each.
It could be 52-46 on primaries which leaves 2% for others – and a 53-47 TPP.
If it is a hung parliament will Bob Katter favour Coalition or Labor he was a former National was he not?
Have we covered that the Daily Telegraph is advocating Rudd?
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22803410-5001021,00.html
551 Ashley
I called the newsroom and they acknowledged it was a mistake, said they would correct it later in the bulletin.
NB so what are the real figures?
Very bad reporting from a dare i say poorly conducted network
The upshot of it all is that the tortoise gets ever nearer to the hare, and the tortoise will win the race. We shouldn’t forget that the Coalition will probably win the election with 52% of the two party preferred.