Time for a new thread. Here’s a chart showing state-level swings to Labor as recorded by Newspoll throughout the campaign. Note that the most recent result seems to indicate a mild Coalition recovery in Victoria being offset by worsening results elsewhere.
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Glen: I’d go for a combination of the ABC and Nine.
Channel 7 trying to turn it into some light entertainment Sunrise type program: no thanks!
Glen Says:
November 22nd, 2007 at 4:06 pm
Geepee even if he loses he’ll be liked by more Australians than Paul J Keating.
My guess is that after he loses a lot of Howard lovers will realise what an arid dead end he led them down.
Over the last year PJK’s stocks are beginning to rise as the ALP is at last admitting that it was His reforms that enabled the rainbow economy we had… which Howard and Costelloe ruined by looking for the pot ‘o gold from their hammocks.
His overweening pride is slowly being forgotten, and we are again remembering his devestating wit!
Neither will be loved, but PJK will be admired.
“Keating the Musical”
“Howard the ####”……….wont get past the censors
Always watch ABC, nothing else. Hopefully this year we get to see a wry grin from Kerry Obrien, rather than a look of panic and astonishment
Ah, there’s nothing like a bit of poll anxiety. That dreaded 52-48 or worse is circling in peoples minds like a rabid hyena. I don’t think we’re gonna see it..
Madonna King ABC Radio Brisbane 612. http://www.abc.net.au/brisbane
But im going to tape it so i’ve got to choose thats the trouble, ill probably do ABC but those smug ABC journos may give me the red ass if we lose.
Let me guess, Kerry with a beaming smile says and “we’re now crossing to the new member for Bennelong” grrrrrr!
Keating the musical will be rated M 15+ too much swearing!
madonna king is 612 ABC Brisbane. equivalent of 702 ABC Sydney.
345 [who the f* is madonna king?]
Local Courier Mail radio presenter in Brisbane.
Scholars, I thought these might be of interest.
Final Polls
1987 election L/NP ALP
Newspoll 43 (-3) 48.5 (+2.7)
Morgan 44 (-2) 48 (+2.2)
Result 46 45.8
1990 election L/NP ALP
Newspoll 39.5 (-4) 44.5 (+2.1)
Morgan 42 (-1.5) 39.5 (+0.1)
Result 43.5 39.4
1993 election L/NP ALP
Newspoll 45 (+0.7) 44 (-0.8)
Morgan 44.5 (+0.2) 45 (+0.2)
Result 44.3 44.8
1996 election L/NP ALP
Newspoll 48 (+1) 40.5 (+1.8)
Morgan 42 (-5) 43 (+4.3)
ACN 46 (-1) 41 (+2.3)
Result 47 38.7
1998 election L/NP ALP
Newspoll 40 (+0.5) 44 (+3.9)
Morgan 43 (+3.5) 39 (-1.1)
ACN 42 (+2.5) 40 (-0.1)
Result 39.5 40.1
2001 election L/NP ALP
Newspoll 46 (+2.9) 38.5 (+0.7)
Morgan 38.5 (-4.6) 43.5 (+5.7)
ACN 46 (+2.9) 38 (+0.2)
Result 43.1 37.8
2004 election L/NP ALP
Newspoll 45 (-1.7) 39 (+1.4)
Morgan 45.5 (-1.2) 38.5 (+0.9)
ACN 49 (+2.3) 37 (-0.6)
Galaxy 46 (-0.7) 39 (+1.4)
Result 46.7 37.6
Husband of Lib candidate quits over flyer
THE husband of Liberal candidate Karen Chijoff has quit the party after admitting his role in distributing a bogus leaflet in the marginal Sydney seat of Lindsay.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22803398-12377,00.html
Glen promise me you won’t cry on election night. I took 1996 with dignity and I even gave John Howard a go for a few months until he proved himself to be the rodent he is today. I hope you’ll give Rudd a go as well.
love n kisses
ABC all the way. I dont want adverts roooning me evening! 7 reckons they’ll be ad free until the outcome is known. they must have some inside knowledge that is going to be a landslide and they can put the ads on by 7pm.
Have you had a call from John Howard at your place.
Well I have and it sounded so warm and personable.
He’s “gunna” help families with rebates, make home purchasing more affordable and other stuff too. What a guy.
Sorry missed the rest of it as I was dry-retching at the time.
Aristotle – cheers for that. Basically shows what we all know – the polls are rarely, if ever, a true representation of what will happen.
There don’t appear to have been any updates on individual seat odds on Portlandbet for a couple of days now. Anyone know if they only occasionally update these? It would seem unlikely that there wouldn’t have been aby change at all in 48 hours?
Nice image, that about sums it up.
I think it’ll be pretty astounding if we have our first 52-48 result. I’m thinking Galaxy will have us at 53-47. But given the MOE of these polls, a 52-48 result is entirely possible even if the election ends up being 54-46.
I’ll take an average of Galaxy, ACN and Newspoll, with a bit more weight on ACN I think.
Jai-mei if Unca Howie bites the dust i won’t shed a tear because i know what good he’s done for Australia and history will be kind for him at least those histories not written by the rabid left.
The only reason why i wont give Rudd a go is he’s got no experience ill be waiting till he makes a blunder and it wont take long trust me.
Oh and you can be sure if Howard loses he wont blubber like Fraser, John can take it like a man. The question is will Rudd cry if he loses by the barest of margins?
I’ll be watching the ABC for Antony, but Seven is tempting if only for the chance of seeing Hockey lose his seat live on air.
I don’t think it is:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/entertainment/return-of-the-musical-we-had-to-have/2007/04/11/1175971180129.html
What’s going on here?????
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22803410-5001021,00.html
This insanity has to stop!!!
What is the origin of this Galaxy rumour?
And is it a trustworthy sourcE?
If he loses by the barest of margins we probably won’t know the outcome on Saturday night. Close elections can drag for a while…
sky are replaying the Howard interview instead of showing the Rudd interview. what the???
I’m not sure about the galaxy poll coming in that low….will wait and see!!
Happy to see Telegraph is recommending a vote for Rudd – I never thought I’d see the day this tabloid would back the ALP!! I wonder if Uncle Rupert has given them his blessing?
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph
Don’t know how to make the link work – sorry!!
The Daily Telegraph back Rudd! Holy Camoly!
371 Sean
It was a little joke by someone about 2 hours ago – pay it no mind
Bennelong on Centrebet.
Howard 1.63
Maxine 2.15
Sweepstake for Sat Night: At what time will someone say “It’s early days yet”.
“Serenity Now, Insanity Later”
looking at the Tele, I think the whale should be called Kevin07…
Thanks NB at 376, i was fretting!
Wow, the Tele to back A Rudd Labor Government. Hoodathunkit…
Did the Daily Telegrph back Carr before he passed onto Iemma?
The Daily Telegraph backs Kevin Rudd
From: The Daily Telegraph
November 22, 2007
AFTER backing John Howard and the Coalition at every federal election since 1998, The Daily Telegraph will tomorrow recommend a vote for Kevin Rudd and Labor.
In its election-eve editorial, The Daily Telegraph argues that Mr Howard has dealt himself out of the equation by failing to serve a full term – and by denying the democratic right of voters to elect or reject Peter Costello as Prime Minister.
In contrast, it argues that Kevin Rudd has shown a commitment to the future, with better policies for education and the environment – but warns that he must stand up to unions and prevent them from running the show.
367 [Jai-mei if Unca Howie bites the dust i won’t shed a tear because i know what good he’s done for Australia and history will be kind for him at least those histories not written by the rabid left.]
Glen,That’s one explanation but the more likely reason is the delusion.
“It was The Sun wot won it”
News Corp loves nothing better than a winner do they.
The next polls will be the most accurate of this election, although the full effect of Lindsaygate will not be taken into account. It doesn’t help their credibility if their not.
Is this the same Howard who attacked Rudd after Therese’gate’?
I think at 6.30 p.m aedt when the libs have lost all 5 of the act seats
i take back anything bad i ever said against rupe
except for the true stuff
insanity has arrivd earlier than glen anticipated. much earlier.
I shouldn’t be surprised about the Daily Terror backing Rudd. They’ve been gradually backing away from the Rodent recently. Good news for Labor, it’ll help a lot in marginal seats on the outskirts of the Sydney Metro area.
Not sure if anyone posted this before:
http://www.domain.com.au/Public/PropertyDetails.aspx?adid=2006832414
The Daily Telegraph is a commie bolshy union rag of no influence or importance…
always has been and always will be
Murdoch is showing his true colours – CLASS TRAITOR
It didn’t look like a joke to me. It was just someone saying, quite seriously, that the Galaxy result would be ‘too close to call’. There was no clarification of whether this would be in relation to their national 2PP result or the individual seat polling that they’ve been doing.
Why would the Telegraph, which will publish the Galaxy, back Rudd if the next Galaxy is “too close to call”? Why back a possible loser when you have the polling information prior to anyone else?
I call shenanigans on this rumour.
I reckon sitting through hours of Channel 7’s lollipop coverage would be worth it if I got to see Joe Hockey lose his safe seat live on national television.
It won’t change a vote. Nice though
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