Roy Morgan has released a phone survey of 1670 voters including 1025 in hand-picked Coalition marginals. It shows Labor with an overall lead of 54.5-45.5 on two-party preferred, or 46.5 per cent to 40 per cent on the primary vote. The picture is somewhat better for the Coalition in the marginals, where the swing to Labor is 5.2 per cent compared with 7.2 per cent overall. Morgan aren’t done yet: the accompanying release tells us “the final Morgan Poll will be conducted tonight and released on election morning”.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
1,119 Comments
Friday night polls … not that I have ever been polled, but I’m normally not at home on a Friday night. Wouldn’t this be the case for a lot of Australian working families, sorry, people?
The 54.5-45.5 TPP sounds realistic nationwide, but to me perhaps a little optimistic for Coalition marginal seats. Mind you with this week on the campaign being a bad one for the Coalition, I wouldn’t be surprised if there has been a further swing to Labor in the Coalition marginals.
Anyway after the last couple of weeks I’d like to revise my election predictions.
I’ll be slightly more optimistic than I was a few weeks ago and say TPP of 54-46 in Labor’s favour, primary support of 46% for Labor and 42% for the Coalition and a seat count of 83 for Labor, 65 for Coalition and 2 Independents.
The 23 seats that Labor will win off the Coalition are:
NSW (7) = Bennelong (by a very narrow margin), Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Lindsay, Macquarie - held by a Liberal MP although it is a Labor seat on paper (or Parramatta - which is on paper a Liberal seat), Page, Robertson
Vic (3) = Corangamite, Deakin, La Trobe
Qld (6) = Blair, Bonner, Bowman, Herbert, Moreton, Petrie
WA (1) = Hasluck
SA (3) = Kingston, Makin, Wakefield,
Tas (2) = Bass, Braddon
NT (1) = Solomon
Ooops … I’ve misread the poll - 54.5-45.5 TPP is nationwide in the Morgan poll.That sounds like quite a sensible TPP for a Morgan poll which in the past has overstated Labor’s TPP. It’s interesting is now being the most favourable pre-election poll for Labor!
Ooops … I’ve misread the poll - 54.5-45.5 TPP is nationwide in the Morgan poll.That sounds like quite a sensible TPP for a Morgan poll which in the past has overstated Labor’s TPP. It’s interesting that ACN (which overstated the Coalition’s TPP just before the 2004 election) rather than Morgan is now the most favourable pre-election poll for Labor!
Morning Kiwipundit,
INteresting point, Morgan does tend to overstate the ALP position, sometimes by up to 2%.
This Morgan number today (54.5 minus 2 = 52.5) supports the Galaxy number more than the AC neilson number.
When was the last time AC Neislon threw in an outlier? sheesh!!!
That swing distribution beautiful. Here’s hoping that the marginals are close but get over the line, saving the big swings for further up the pendulum.
Mr. Squiggle, it’s the face-to-face that’s been accused of having a Labor bias. The ph poll is okay generally.
Morning All,
So, in a nutshell what explains the discrepency between the two polls?
Morning.
It’s the narrowing of course.
Hi Lord D,
So my only comfort is that Morgan shows the L-NP have picked 1.5-2% in just one week?
would this poll support Neilson or Galaxy?
Actuallu, just looked more closely at the Morgan primary for the L-NP
They report it as 40.5 (4)… Morgan has given the National party (4) only 3 times since the last election
Huh?
headline - “I’ve never lied to you, says Howard”
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22805707-5012863,00.html
Don’t know what he was thinking when he said that
Galaxy appear to have shot themselves in the foot. For such a young and brash polling organisation I wonder whether they will be able to survive after the election. Even if Morgan is splitting the difference between AC Nielsen and Galaxy and has it right which I would say they do. I suggest Galaxy will come off as grossly getting it wrong whereas ACN will just be seen as picking it on the higher side of the result and forgiven because they have been largely on track for the last year or so.
The Oz editorial today says both Galaxy and Newspoll (still polling) show the government is “coming home strongly”. Hope it’s a landslide but my original forecast still stands: two seats either way.
Hey has there been a 48/52 Newspoll, it must be a misprint on the Today show newsbar
David Briggs from Galaxy on 702 ABC radio at approx. 6:40am talking about “THE NARROWING” this morning. One thing he said was that whilst a lot of people said they would like to vote for Rudd they think John Howard has been doing such a good job that they will vote for him again. He then concluded by having a bet each way and declaring that the ALP will probably win with about 17 or 18 seats.
No lies ey?
http://www.alp.org.au/features/lies.php
I doubt that the Morgan poll’s overall figure of 54.5 has any validity. The sample of 1670 voters included 1025 in “hand picked Coalition marginals”. I would dispute therefore that the sample is an accurate representation of the whole population.
Also worth noting is that if the swing in the coalition marginals is 5.2% and the overall swing is 7.2% then the swing in the remaining seats must be 10.4%.
Ah! The “honest John” defence! I wonder if AWB, Iraq, David Hicks etc constituted “non-core” lies?
David Briggs of galaxy just on Sky News says he is “confident with these numbers”
We’ll see…
Well nothing new here - ANOTHER poll saying a victory for Labor.
One thing about polls and the Nationals, who seem understated constantly.
Everyone keeps saying that this doesn’t matter because the Coalition sample is right overall. Do we know this?
BR @ 20,
Yes.
Although if the swing in marginals is as low (?) as 5.2%, we won’t be sure of the result early in the night.
Unicorn,
They might have weighted the overall average for the sample by electorate. So the swing outside the marginals might be a bit lower than that.
AnthonyL @ 12,
We’re so close to the big day that I’ll reserve judgment on Galaxy - after all, if Labor gets less than (say) 80 seats, Galaxy will be geniuses.
They’re certainly a bit “out there” - I’d have to agree with you on that.
Remember 52% in Qld is a gain of 11 seats
mccabe gave the week to labor!
though she did say that galaxy is correct cos she works closely with briggs????
wonder if lindsaygate will run hot in the news today
Dyno,
True, they may have,
Thanks
Even now he can’t help himself. See post below in OzElection2007
Earlier, at the Riverlink shopping centre in Ipswich, in the electorate of Blair, Mr Howard got a heroes welcome – from a five year old.
“He’s a hero!” cried Benjamin Choat before the PM gave him a giant hug.
“I love John Howard,” called Ben’s sister Charlotte, 10, before the PM gave her the same treatment.
Ben and Charlotte’s father, Sean said he’d definitely be voting for the Coalition, citing economic stability as his No. 1 reason.
Now being a compulsive googler I could not resist slapping the name Sean Choat into the spider web and seeing what flew out the other end:
http://elections.nationalforum.com.au/c … 02987.html
http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/sta … date3.html
Sorry, URL truncated. Anyway, turns out Sean is a Liberal Party employee!!
davidk- links dont work
David K - why am I not surprised!
Please, for the love of God, let this all end.
I don’t like these rumours of a bad Newspoll.
Despite yesterday I still don’t feel very confident at all. I’m sticking to my 51.7/48.3 2PP prediction.
Hopefully that turns out to be enough to get the ALP over the line.
Coast poll upset is on the cards
12:00a.m. 23 November 2007
A random poll taken this week shows Labor could come close to claiming a safe Sunshine Coast Liberal seat tomorrow.
The Daily poll, conducted in Fisher over three days, showed Labor’s Darrell Main with 41.5% of the two-party preferred vote (???). The sitting member, Liberal Peter Slipper, had 43.5%.
Fifteen percent of voters were undecided.
Mr Slipper won the seat with a margin of 11% in 2004.
In 2004 the final four poll average was almost exactly spot on.
So far the final average Galaxy, ACN and Morgan has Labor at 54.5. If Newspoll has Labor at 52 then the final 4 average at a shade under 54. If Newspoll has Labor at 53 then the final 4 average is a shade over 54.
54 it will be. That’s 90 seats or so.
But as I have said repeatedly, worst case 52 still delivers a comfortable Labor victory. The only time it ever “goes down to the wire”, “is too close to call” etc is when one party is on 50 point something and the other is on 49 point something.
Dolly’s on RN Breakfast. Says he was going round the pubs in his electorate last night. Now Adeleaide beer is errr… questionable at the best of times but that accent would have curdled it quick smart.
I am quietly confident that it will be around 56/57 - 44/43. Peter Hartcher’s comments in today’s SMH, where ACNielsen validated its polling by running a parallel poll (albeit an online poll) leads me to this conclusion.
Enjoy yourselves, as I will tomorrow night.
Fran Kelly is a pathetic joke apologist for the tories. She is sickening and should be dismissed.
#34 Spiros: agree, looks like 85+ to me also
#35 Albert Ross: I hope you don’t include Coopers in that!
Is it just me? I count myself to be a tolerant person who would hear out other peoples opinions even if they differ from my political point of view.
But these days especially the last fortnight I just switch off all together when I hear Howard & Costello on audio. Its painful.
Are other Australians feeling that too? Is its a reflection on how most of us feel?
I guess the only thing I only want to hear from Howard is a concession speech & the loss of his seat!
After the leaflet fiasco, I predict 89 seats to Labor.
A big call but I’ll stick my neck out.
I go on the record again. Labor to take it 90 -105 !
Is anyone else (ALP voters that is) getting a little jumpy? You have to admit the outcome has gone from a sure thing to having to justify why a certain poll is “wrong”. I have a feeling this is going to be a lot closer than most people think.
Another rock solid poll, everything points to the win, I predict it will actually be higher on 57-43 during the leaflet fallout amongst other things.
Kevin Rudd - Prime Minister, just one more sleep and that will be a reality.
42 mr awesome Galaxy does push polling, they asked a series of questions favourable to the government first. According to people on this site who were polled. Then the 4th question is who you will vote for.
Also the Lindsaygate affair may not show up in recent polls.
Aussieguru01 @ 39, like you I think a lot of the electorate is sick and tired of the campaign and the Libs in particular, there is a limit to how many trashy adds people will tolerate before they switch off. So the strategy of a long campaign that would wear Labor down has backfired and they have worn the electorate down instead.
I am confident that ACN has it right. It has been 55/45 all year. Then we have had a Rate rise, Abbott’s IR gaffe, Campaign launches and now the pamphlet fiasco. They have to be worth a couple of percent.
Long live King Kev.
All hail the king…
Thanks C the C you make sense.
Chris B, why would Galaxy (& ACN for that matter) be happy to produce a poll which they thought was an inaccurate representation of true voting intentions?
When it’s your last poll for the campaign, surely you want to make sure you get it right. You reputation for the next 3 years hangs on it - that’s been the reason for Morgan’s demise in the mainstream press.
Stop panicking folks. Given the MOE for each of ACN, Galaxy, Morgan and Newspoll they can all be right (within their range). However, the three higher polls lowest levels based on MOE are higher than Galaxy’s mid point. This indicates the Galaxy is likely to go to the higher end of it’s MOE. Hence the figure of 54:46 is much more statistically accurate than any other. A win of about 30 seats for the ALP.
No one has to assume any polls are wrong or biased. But since they each ask a sample of people they can only be right within a certain range. The average of the polls is more likely to predict the outcome than any single poll.
(Exlude Morgan F2F and Nielsen online fron the average. They are not comparable to the four major polls.)
Well, Murdoch Tabloid TV Skynews website has a whole new way of interpreting polls:
They say in their introductory paragraph reporting the Galaxy 52-48 to Labor and the ACN 57-43 to Labor that these two polls are showing “varying indications of who will win”. Gobsmackingly dishonest journalism, even by Skynews low standards.
Whoever wrote that should contact the incumbent and Lib candidate in Lindsay and get a job writing fake pamphlets.
Heres a good read
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/100-reasons-rudd-is-in-like-flynn/2007/11/22/1195753249787.html
Hi everyone - it’s the inverse narrowing!
Thanks Aussieguru01 @ 53, interesting read. I like the “ahead in 100 consecutive polls”
If Galaxy has engaged in push polling then that is a disgrace. That is blatant bias which has most likely been done to script a narrative about Howard coming back and trying to make it acceptable again to vote Liberal. Overall, I think for everyone who changes their vote one way because of this poll there will be another who changes it the other way.
Jumpy about the ALP’s prospects tomorrow ??? …
No.
Books should be written about the Howard government’s re-election campaign. I can even suggest a few titles … how about “Failure to Launch” or maybe even “Campaigning for Dummies - 101 things you should NEVER do”.
The Libs have spent most of this year trying to drive around a corner by staring straight at the big gum tree (and annihilation) at the bend.
Time’s up people.
Give me my little pencil, point me to the cardboard box polling station, I’m ready to cast off the dead skunk that has been hanging around the neck of this nation for 11 years.
ratcatcher Says: “Jumpy about the ALP’s prospects tomorrow ??? …”
Not for a second ratcatcher!
Gary Morgan is at it again.
“ALP Set To Win Close Election” but the headline is 54.5/46.5??
What’s close about this (Antony’s calc says 54.5% gives 91 to Labor)?
Labor set to win an extra 31 seats and it’s close? Please, Gary.
Also the hard to reconcile ““John Howard should retain Bennelong and Malcolm Turnbull Wentworth”.
Yet there were only “843 electors in the 22 L-NP marginal seats” is his marginal sample.
Does this mean he polled 38 people in each of the 22 electorates and then comes to the outrageous conclusion that JH and MT are safe?
Or does it mean he polled more people in Bennelong and Wentworth - thereby polling only a handful in the other 20 seats? Be nice to know if this was done.
Or does it mean Gary Morgan took all of the 22 seats, looked at the overall swing then concluded that Bennelong and Wentworth were safe for the Libs? This can’t be true because both those seats are held by less than the 5.2% swing stated.
Or does he just make it up.
Gary Morgan habitually comments on his own polling to make it reflect current issues and makes conclusions not supported by the data. Highly dubious considering the margin of error.
But I guess he owns it.
I think the problem is one of perception. Even if 52-48 is right, that’s GREAT for Labor supporters. But we’ve become used to 55-45 and so 52-48 doesn’t feel so good.
There has been a narrowing since the campaign started, but only enough to reduce the annihilation to a solid trouncing. Breathe deep and take the election into your own hands: convince a neighbour!!!
Am I right in assuming that the safest way to go is to ask people where they would direct their preferences?
If so, the ACN should really be 56-44 which makes a 53 or 54 in it’s MoE. I think around 54 probably seems more reasonable than 57.
A Coalition victory at this stage would be unbearable and would leave us all in the dark for the 2010/2011 election as the polls would not be able to be believed again.
Another good read -
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/pm-needs-a-miracle/2007/11/22/1195753249705.html
John Hewson in the AFR is predicting a Labor margin of 3-7 seats ie 78-82 seats.
Kevin Rudd is writing off the unions in the Australian this morning - “not my concern if they live or die”.
Looks like we are going to get Howardism without Howard or perhaps a more appropriate slogan - “After Howard, Howard”
Is it too late for Howard to feign a health scare and step down today, thus remaining undefeated ?
Adjusting for the Morgan bias this poll is 52-48.
Adjusting for the Galaxy bias their poll is 54-46.
Morgan then supports Galaxy
Galaxy then supports ACN.
All support Labor.
I think the Liberals shouldn’t appoint Costello as leader. They should go for an overhaul and move straight to Turnbull and encourage as many ex ministers to go as quickly as possible.
“63
Edward StJohn Says:
November 23rd, 2007 at 8:38 am
John Hewson in the AFR is predicting a Labor margin of 3-7 seats ie 78-82 seats.
Kevin Rudd is writing off the unions in the Australian this morning - “not my concern if they live or die”.
Looks like we are going to get Howardism without Howard or perhaps a more appropriate slogan - “After Howard, Howard””
Ah, Eddie’s first sh!t of the day, but not his last, I fear.
After Howard, Rudd.
Not Howard. Rudd.
Live with it. And feel the pain that we’ve felt through 11 years of vileness, pettiness and vindictiveness.
$34 Billion Tax Cuts. If there is one fault of both parties in this campaign it would be the handout of $30-$34 Billion in tax cuts over 5 years. Personally, a pay rise of some $10-$20 a week for the average Australian is hardly worth the benefit that could be had if this money was equally across every electorate in Australia for the purposes of infastructure including roads, hospitals, schools and community facilities. (Thats $226 MILLION DOLLARS per electorate). Not to mention the added inflationary pressure these personal tax cuts will have on the economy at a time when inflation is being fueled by higher prices for groceries, fuel, rent and wages. In the past I like many other people have always negotiated salary with employers on the basis of ‘take home pay’ nett of tax therefore this tax cut is not the carrot politicians belive it to be. Communities should be the ones to receive the greater benefit of this massive surplus.
Ha John Hunt that’s some very creative work you’ve got going there.
I’m not sure ESJ, they may want to stick with Costello through Rudd’s honeymoon. You don’t agree with Greg Sheridan? He thinks they should go for Tony Abbot.
Just back from voting at Oz house in London. Had to queue for over an hour and there were at least 8 ALP how-to-vote cards taken for every Lib one - it’s on for KEV07!
The Liberals would need a quick clean-out LTEP of ministers who are seen as past it, people like Downer for example. They would want to maintain some who are not so shopworn - say Julie Bishop or Helen Coonan for example.
By the way, you Laborites shouldn’t be happy with 52% of the 2pp.
52% tpp equates to a uniform swing of 4.7 percent, which would yield Labor 15 seats, resulting in a hung parliament. Considering that they would probably not win either Bennelong on Wentworth, and that they would also lose a seat or two in WA, coupled with the fact that the swing in the Coalition marginals is lower than nationwide, the net result would be another Howard Government with a reduced majority.
Slowly but surely the tortoise crawls up to the hare…….
I think they should go for a labotamy!
I predict a landslide of historic proportions with Labor TTP of around 55%. This will get them more than 90 seats, but being a Geelong supporter I will stick with my earlier predictions of 89. This will be enough to keep Kevin as PM for at least 2 terms- enough to undo much of the damage done by the rat brigade over the past 11 years.
I think AC Nielsen is wrong - its really 60-40, all over the leafy north shore of sydney and Melbourne equivalents accountants, lawyers and doctors are rising up (as predicted by that seer Possum) and calling for a revolution - Kevin07, the national orgasm has begun.
At least Edward, to his credit, believes Labor will win, instead of trying to interpret the latest polls as some type of narrowing resulting in a close coalition win.
Gusface (26) said:-
>mccabe gave the week to labor!
though she did say that galaxy is correct cos she works closely with briggs????>
Yeah - my initial reaction was “well, she would say that, wouldn’t she?” Given she works for the paper that commissions Galaxy polls…… She also gave a spiel saying that many people, when they enter the booth, will think about how wll they’ve done under the Govt and vote accordingly.
Interestingly, Mark Reilly seemed to be trying to say that the Neilsen poll was closer to both sides’ private polling, but he was interrupted by David Koch (whose “I’m so sick of the election” mantra is wearing pretty thin). Anybody hear that, or was it my imagination?
Thats it Liberal losers keep telling your selves ‘Its going to be alright,Its going to be alright’
Asking people where their preferences will go is what produced the widely variable TPP figures in the final polls before the 2004 election. Thats why some of the pollsters have gone back to estimating them themselves this time around.
As far as the Galaxy Poll goes there are two things in my mind that tend to discount their findings on their latest poll. Firstly it is the first poll all year to show the two sides equal on primary vote and secondly it does not seemed to have moved the betting markets at all. Centrebet in fact has actually lengthened the Coalition’s price this morning. If in fact the result of the election was in some doubt you would not be seeing a price in excess of $4.00 for one of the contenders. I would be taking the Galaxy Poll with a grain of salt and looking at this Morgan and the latest ACN poll to draw my conclusions.
I thought 52.5% and 82 seats for Labor for about a week. Morgan does overstate Labor strength so knocking 2% off their number is reasonable.
AC Neilsen is crazy. Labor has neve achieved a vote like that. It is very brave indeed to predict a labor vote higher that 1972 or 1983 so 52.5% is probably as good as it gets.
rumour has it Newspol is 54-46 ALP
ESJ
I think most of Howard’s Minister’s are mostly past it. I don’t know whether Coonan would be hard-hitting enough in Opposition. They may want to choose some of their harder hitting members/senators who will really go for it. I see Senator Corey Bernardi being on their front bench within a few years. Senator McGauran perhaps would be able to provoke slips in the ALP front bench. I agree on Julie Bishop though, I think she’ll be fine.
Nostradamus if you want a proper response…
The truth is at 52% the election could go either way. Now I don’t agree with people here who say Labor can’t lose on 52% because it’s never happened before… but, on 52% if the swing is less in certain marginals then it will be more in other seats. The question is whether this additional swing would occur in seats that would fall to the ALP.
Yes, the ALP could lose 2 seats in WA, but they could gain 1 in NT, which would hardly effect the national 2PP at all. At 52% I’d say it’s too close to call either way.
Yeah, I’d much rather have the reconstituted possum urine that is a Swan Lager or a XXXX than a nice pint of Coopers…
Oh, please, please install Tony Abbott as leader of the Libs. Labor would be in power for as long as Abbott was their leader.
Averaging the primaries for the three polls produced thus far produces 45.5/41 on the primaries. If we assume 7.5 for Greens (can’t find primaries for these, but this about the level of the last election) and a 75%/40% preference flow Greens/Others, we get a TPP of about 53.5/46.5.
This is a swing of just over 6%, and about 82-85 seats to Labor. I like the 53.5% figure because it is in line with previous highest TPPs recorded in elections (just pips Hawke’s, I think).
LTEP,
In 1974 Nixon advised Ford to fire the entire Cabinet except Henry Kissinger, the Liberals will need to be seen to make a clean break from the Howard era to get re-elected if they lose tomorrow.
Movement to Labor in QLD:
PETRIE
ALP 1.80
LIBS 1.90
RYAN
LIBS 1.50
ALP 2.30
“77
Aussieguru01 Says:
November 23rd, 2007 at 8:51 am
Thats it Liberal losers keep telling your selves ‘Its going to be alright,Its going to be alright’”
Yes, it’s an interesting development.
1. Spend 12 months saying Labor can’t win, right up to the last minute.
2. At the last minute, backpedal furiously and say that Rudd is just as right-wing as Johnny.
Shanahan has written the blueprint in today’s Oz. Watch his minions fall into line.
Yet you can bet your bottom dollar that by the time of the next election, they’ll be back to banging on about the evils of Ruddite socialism…
FYI, Centrebet has blown out again over night:
1. LABOR 1.20 (in from $1.26)
2. COALITION 4.60 (out from $4.35)
Gary Bruce,
I may be a jinx though, I thought PJK would win in 1996 too!
anyone see gillard and abbott on nine tis morning
gillard had the line of the election so far
“dont worry tony ,you can stay on in parliament -as the fitness instructor!”
Albert Ross @ 35 - them’s fighting words.
How can a Greens supporter not like real ale ie Coopers ? (as opposed to that gassy chemical rubbish you people on the eastern seaboard drink).
The question you really need to ask yourself is this, given the polls all year and the election campaign performances , do you really believe Labor’s primary vote stands at 42.5%? My belief is that it is more like 46%.
I think it’ll be astounding if the betting markets don’t move to the Coalition during the day. The pay-off really is too good to resist if you believe Galaxy is the most accurate pollster (which a lot of people do believe).
I think the betting markets are really mostly worthless. It just tells us who people think will win. I also don’t believe the individual betting markets are really anything swish either. It’s just people taking a stab in the dark and hoping they get more than they would by betting on the national figure (believing the ALP is a lock-on).
I dont know Gary the people I associate with are not swinging voters so hard to say what the real world thinks or the mythical index patient believes.
89 Edward StJohn - I think you’ll get it right this time Edward.
hey guys,
this has probably been covered before, but I can’t find any booth-by-booth results from last election.
I would LOVE to know the numbers and %s for booths in what is now Eden-Monaro, can anyone point me in the right direction?
The Liberals could be outsourced - a bunch of 457 visas and some AWAs get them signed on for the next 5 years.
Re: the galaxy poll.
The primary vote is particularly interesting. The Coalition on 42.5 is not unreasonable, since their election campaign average is around 41.
It’s the Labor primary which is weird… 42.5. That’s a significant drop, and one which isn’t backed up by the ACN or Morgan (48 and 46.5).
I’m hanging out to see the ALP primary vote in the Newspoll. If it’s 44 or over then you’d have to say that Galaxy have screwed up on the Labor primary. Galaxy is obviously looking the most likely to be wrong, since the ACN and Morgan are in agreement with all the other ALP primary results up to this point.
Predictions on Newspoll ALP primary? I think we’ll see something in the range 44-46.
I think newspoll 53-47 would be consistent with a win but not quite a Hawke 83.
gusface Says:”
gillard had the line of the election so far
“dont worry tony ,you can stay on in parliament -as the fitness instructor!” :)”
Gold LOL! Did Abbott respond with “f*ck you, you a**-hole b*tch, I’ll go you with a knife!”
verbal @ 96 :
go to the Aust Electoral Commisiion Website. Its all there. Try this :
http://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/HouseDivisionPollingPlaces-12246-117.htm
http://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/HouseDivisionPollingPlaces-12246-117.htm there you go dude
hmm, too slow….
Yes ESJ, I think we’ll get a 53-47 or 54-46 from Newspoll. That’s a convincing win, but we might only see Labor ahead by 10 seats in the end.
Ashley, the overriding question on primaries is whether you really believe this election is so polarising that the minor party vote is so tiny.
Personally, I’m an ex-minor party voter who will probably vote 1 Labor this time… but I’m not sure that’s wipe-spread. In any case, a Labor primary of 42.5 would be higher than any result they’ve achieved since 1993.
LTEP, I officially dub thee:
Eeyore!!!
http://images.easyart.com/i/prints/rw/lg/7/1/Mini-Posters-Winnie-the-pooh—Eeyore-71119.jpg
As far as the the Galaxy poll is concerned, the simple fact is that whilst the Coalition primary vote of 42.5 is in line with what most polls have been saying all campaign (averaging at about 41/42), the labor vote is clearly on the low side, probably explained by the high primary for the greens/others.
LTEP, I think if Galaxy is correct (big if) then most of the missing ALP primary will be with the Greens, and it will flow straight back to Labor on preferences. Can’t see any Coalition marginals getting over the line on primaries.
In relation to the galaxy poll how many people were polled?
In relation to the questions what were the questions and how were they framed, for example the Telegraph reports:
However, voters told Galaxy pollsters they expected a Labor election victory on Saturday - 62 per cent to 25 per cent for the Coalition.
But they were not sure either side deserved to win.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22806538-5001021,00.html
They were not sure either side deserved to win? sounds like push polling?
Yes Ashley and I think Rudd will govern very conservatively in that case - he will have a small margin, small number of seats and will not want to upset anybody in caucus - and hope the Liberals implode with a view to a big win in 2010.
Or he may go for the Whitlam option (or his ministry might) God has given us the papacy we should enjoy it sort of school of thought. On reflection through the campaign I doubt the later will happen and obviously the elites have come to the same view which is why he will win.
You realise the only difference between putting a minor party first and a major party second in most lower house seats is who gets the electoral funding flowing from your first preference vote?
So if for no other reason, if you are sympathetic to a minor party it’s worthwhile thinking about putting them first and then preferencing the major party of your choice in order to improve funding to the minor party.
93- You might consider beting markets worthless but I would take them anyday over your collection of “gut feelings” and obvious personal insecurities about the result. There is more than enough evidence to backup the accuracy of betting markets as a predictor especially at the pointy end of an election.
Worthless might be used to describe an argument that has been banging the same drum for six weeks without any eveidence to back it up apart from anectdotal personal stories and ” gut feelings”.
ESJ — dunno how conservative he will be in some areas. Don’t forget he has “the buck stops with me” line hanging over his head. He’s gotta know that that’s going to come back and bite him on the ass, so I think he’ll be doing some headkicking when it comes to health.
Patrick, I’m more than aware of all that and I will not decide my vote based on funding. I’m yet to decide on my Senate vote and may decide on the spot.
I am in Bennelong. My mum rang me just now excited. She said Howard had rung her and said you will get all these benefits etc listing them. I told her that it must be a recorded message. Campaigning is getting hectic.
Edward,
I doubt they’ll go the Whitlam route. Once in power the new government will like the feel of the place and want to stay as long as possible. They won’t want to upset too many people. I suspect we’re about to see the most conservative and careful Labor government in history.
Best way for Rudd to get Howard riled up: go and campaign in Bennelong with Maxine. However, it seems both leaders will be in QLD today.
Mccabe wa spushing her usual liberal BS this mroning, was waiting for her to give the week as a win for the coalition again…….but even she coudln’t…….althoigh she did poopoo the flyer scandal she did say that both sides use dirty tricks?????……
LTEP@93:
I couldn’t agree more. The betting market is just reflecting who it is people expect to win, not who they WANT to win.
According to the Galaxy Poll 62% of people believe that the ALP will win, but only 52% are going to vote for them. It’s 25%/48 2PP for the Coalition.
Throughout this campaign (and pre-campaign) when there has been a high expectancy that the ALP will win there has been a commensurate drop in the 2PP figure for the ALP. When it looks like the ALP is going to romp home people scratch their heads out in the marginals and wonder “why is that again given that it ain’t broken?”
I maintain that I don’t think the electorate is sold on either of the parties, and being the favourite this time might possibly be a net negative thing.
george
i think his sackcloth was chafing him as he squirmed very uncomfortably
bet abbott thought it though-then did penance for thinking it!
More info on the galaxy poll in the Courier mail:
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22806358-952,00.html
The Galaxy poll of 1,200 voters was taken on Tuesday and Wednesday for News Ltd - before the revelations of a bogus leaflet scandal that threatens to hand a key marginal Sydney seat to Labor.
The sample was 1200 and specifically done for News Limited, so what were the questions and how were they framed?
Wow, portlandbet is out to 1.67 for Howard in Bennelong, Centrebet on 1.65. That’s a big move (just over a week ago Howard was on around 1.45).
Paul K,
True, the best model is a Carr style NSW government. Do nothing controversial, spin furiously, paper over the cracks.
Sound like something we already know federally?
LTEP,
So, you might decide your Senate vote on the spot. Well, you’ve had me fooled in here for many dozens of posts that you were someone with rational and sensible basis for making decisions. This is written in sadness, not anger, that I will take your future posts with a ton of salt if, after all this discussion, you are a decide-in-the-booth voter.
A view from Tasmania - Dr Kevin Bonham’s opinion on Tas seats and Senate - some campaign comment.
http://tasmaniantimes.com/index.php?/weblog/article/it-aint-the-economy-stupid/
ESJ - hmm ‘the elites’? That old chestnut? No elitist thinking in the born-to-rule silver-spoon Libs then?
Did anyone else notice that the ACNielsen poll also mentioned that they repeated their Online Poll (with a totally different sample), and got the same result.
..b*gger, link doesn’t work … cut ‘n’ paste if you care.
Hemingway, I’m torn between the Democrats and the Greens but not yet fully decided. Leaning more to the Democrats. There’s a lot to consider.
Oh Dangerous I am sure they didnt get any variance with people like Dave from Albury answering the on-line questions.
How reliable is the online poll? Are respondents self-selected? If so, it doesn’t count for much.
Ashley, they say it’s possible to weight respondents to these polls… I’m not really sure about that but we must keep an open mind to new sampling methods.
More info on the Galaxy poll:
Support for the greens 8.5%
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22806119-661,00.html
The Galaxy poll showed Mr Rudd a clear leader as preferred prime minister, 51-43.
Mr Rudd easily out-campaigned the Prime Minister, according to the poll.
It showed 57 per cent agreed the Labor leader had been more impressive on the hustings, compared with just 27 per cent who rated Mr Howard the better performer.
Many Coalition supporters even gave the nod to Mr Rudd, with 27 per cent agreeing he was more impressive in campaigning.
Voters were more cynical about the parties themselves, with almost half those polled believing neither Labor nor the Coalition deserved to govern.
Half of those polled said they were better off than three years ago. Less than a third, or 29 per cent, thought they were worse off.
The Government has run its campaign on the basis of superior economic management.
After an extended period of economic growth, 55 per cent said they were not financially stressed. But Labor’s cost of living arguments may be resonating, with 44 per cent describing themselves as financially stressed or more stressed than they were three years ago.
Support for the Greens was 8.5 per cent while Family First came in with 2.5 per cent.
The Herald Sun/Galaxy phone survey of voter intentions was taken on Tuesday and Wednesday evenings and involved the views of 1186 voters.
More fabulous reporting from news.com.au… apparently “two out of three polls back Labor win”. Which I guess means a 52-48 Galaxy poll in favour of the ALP actually points to a Liberal win.
ACN Online poll isn’t self-selecting - people are sampled, selected and weighted in the same manner as phone polling.
The Senator believes anything less than 52.1% can be adjusted by traditional methods to ensure the right outcome.
No Patrick Bateman, it could just mean they’re saying it doesn’t clearly back either party to win.
…but not having the guts or intelligence to preference another party ahead of them or register their displeasure at compulsory preferential voting with a donkey vote…
Which is incorrect. It suggests a narrow ALP win.
That’s my point, it doesn’t “decide your vote”. Labor doesn’t care if they’re getting your first preference or your sixth preference, so long as the LibNatz are at least one behind them.
If you discount the polls and the betting markets, Labor is heading for a massive electoral defeat. I refuse to accept polls or betting odds at face value. Psephology is the new Voodoo Science. Astrology has never let me down. Except of course during my divorce, unemployment, drinking problem, smoking problem and depression. But I am on new medication now (combination of prozac and viagra) and I have never been better. I can see clearly now and Howard can never be beaten. Only fools deny reality.
We’ve got to be nice to news ltd now, considering that a good proportion of their newspapers are backing Rudd.
Check out http://smh.com.au
It’s full of Labor online ads today.
49 Samuel K Yes you are right, but I am quoting a number of people on this site. And it has happened twice. Also it has been mention that Galaxy has a connection to the Liberal Party. We will know the answer on Saturday.
OR (as has been pointed out many times) it might actually mean a big ALP win on seats, as the Newspoll and Galaxy polling in marginals has been showing the ALP also ahead 52-48. So, if the ALP win 52-48 in marginals and are 52-48 overall, they will also get 52-48 in a lot of other seats.
There is an acute logic deficiency being experienced by many people at the moment.
By all means tug on your rabbit’s feat and chant your incantations in the hope of your desired outcome, but please don’t attempt to bend the polling results to suit some contorted logic.
I don’t really care Patrick Bateman. I base my vote on who I believe deserves it. Over the past few years I’ve grown to doubt the Greens and I don’t think the Democrats are running a candidate in my seat.
I’m not just going to vote a particular way due to financial benefits to political parties.
From the SMH article about the AC Neilsen poll:
“A Galaxy Poll to be published in News Limited newspapers today shows the election to be a tight contest, with the two main parties tied on 42.5 per cent of the primary vote and Labor leading by 52 per cent to 48 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis.
But sources from both main parties believed that the Herald poll more accurately reflected what their internal polling had found.”
Just had a look the Galaxy poll primary figures which apparently show Family First on 2.5% after not registering anything in the previous Galaxy Polls, and the 2.5% seems to have come straight from the labor primary since the last poll!?
Pollsters and Anthony streaming on http://www.abc.net.au/brisbane
Just about to start
79 Webroar Liberals had never had polls like that before Malcolm Fraser in 1975. Doesn’t mean it can’t be done does it.
worth remembering that half this sample is in Lib marginals, dragging down Labor’s 2PP
John Stirton say min 20 seats to Labor.
One day to go!
Coalition surging back in the marginals:
——————————
On Saturday tee hee
It will be Coalition glee!!
Looking forward to getting up 7am Sat for live results!!
80
Bring Back CL’s blog Says:
November 23rd, 2007 at 8:54 am
rumour has it Newspol is 54-46 ALP
Who says? Or is this just another make a post then leave the blog beat-up a la yesterday?
Croatia 3 England losers.
tdt yes, last night there was someone who claimed to know the Newspoll results.
56/44 Qld, 54/46 NSW, 52/48 Vic, 55/45 SA and 48/52 WA with an overall 54/46.
I would take it with a grain of salt though.
We also had another person who leaked early that Galaxy would show ‘too close to call’ state that Newspoll would be 55/45.
WHAT!? Martin O’Shaunessy from Newspoll just said that he doesn’t think we will know the election result for about one week.
153 Australia football LOLOLOLOL
stick to the Aussie Rules!
O’Shannasy says cliffhanger - maybe - perhaps.
CEO of Newspoll reckons it will be a cliffhanger - Y-A-W-N
He says he is CERTAIN it will be a cliffhanger.
That’s the biggest fence sit of all time.
Martin O from Newspoll spruiking the Australian tomorrow
Ave it 07 - What was the score last time the aussies played england?? 3-1 wasn’t it?
That means he’s got 52-48
Hey Ave it 07 - Take a F#@& off pill
@ 101 & 102:
Thanks heaps guys, really really appreciate it!
Now to figure out which booths the electorate got from Farrer and lost to Gillmore!
As far as I can tell they got:
Adelong
Brungle
Batlow
Lacmalac
Jingellic
Rosewood
Tooma
Talbingo
Tumbarumba
Tumut
Tumut East
and lost:
Batehaven
Batemans Bay
Long Beach
Malua Bay
Mogo
Nelligen
Sunshine Bay
Sutton (Eden-Monaro)
Tomakin
if anyone knows for sure, much appreciated!
If Newspoll is saying that AC Nielsen is the odd man out?
He seemed to imply that the 2pp is higher than that, but that it is closer in marginal seats.
Aussieguru01, it’s not even 10am yet - don’t let these Lib dorks get to you so early - stay focussed
ESJ,
The problem is that ACN conducted 2 separate polls (one online and one traditional) with 2000 people sampled in the traditional and 1400 sampled online. Both point to the exact same result…
George Its only that retard that gets ’special mention’
161 - little friendly game - we like to give you developing nations encouragement
163 - you know you’re worried - you will be crying by Sat night lol
130 Ashley Yes, but it backs up the previous poll.
Labor now favourite in Petrie on Centrebet and Portlandbet. Still behind on Sportingbet…
LTEP: As for deciding between Green or Dems in the Senate, just remember the Dems have a split ticket. Even if you vote below the line, then there should be no issue. If you vote above the line, your initial transfer value might not be 100% but could be 50% (depends on who was eliminated before the transfer). The Greens don’t have a split ticket so the transfer value should be 100%.
I know other parties do split tickets, but I detest split tickets more than the voting above the line. At least below the line I have my say.
Ave it 07, why don’t you shove a hot poker up your arse and go f*ck yourself….
swe damn it, I didn’t follow my own advice Aussieguru01!
Ave it 07 - your just a ‘cyber fart’, piss off!
Growler @ 145
Thanks for the helpful quote, particularly about the internal polling from both parties. Graham Richardson, who has called the winner of every election for the past 30 years and has seen the Labor Party’s internal polls. Richo stated late Sunday that Labor will win 80 seats, and it’s likely that he would give the conservative minimum figure with a few more still in sight.
But as someone said earlier, the polls (MSM or internal), Betting markets and Possums’ (and others’) stats analysis don’t matter a whole lot to the hunchpeople.
174 - lol - Australia a civilised mature country………
10am there soon. 32 hours to Coalition win - alll you labor will have your handouts stopped lol - get back in the tent on the street
Martin O said “we won’t know the result for a week, there will be recounts”, meaning that he thinks a lot of seats will be closely fought. Doesn’t mean that the overall 2PP is close.
George…some digression please…William will whack us if we keep up this form…he might be asleep!
Ave it 07 don’t you have some flyers to deliver?
Ave it 07 - investing your precious time posting about election polling on the other side of the world. LOL.
In the world of polling Swing Lowe - someone is going to get hurt!
Apologies if this has already been covered here, getting harder + harder to roll with the times.
Jim Middleton said on 702 that tomorrow’s Oz/Newspoll would show some “tightening but Labor still in a position to win”.
Anyone got any more on this? Do we know the actual figures or do we just guess? It can only be 53-47, can’t it? Or 52.5-48.5? Any less and Libs would have 48 and be theoretically able to win, thus he wouldn’t have said that?
Or am I reading 2 much into this?
175 lol missed that - dont forget we british can disolve your government if we dont like it - we’ve done it before
180 - haha quite funny
nah, Ave it 07 loves the tit for tat! now back to listening to cassidy on the radio
Sorry, I meant to say 52.5/47.5 …
Betamax,
Rumour is that it’s going to be 54/46. However, that statement suggests a 53/47 result - 50/50 would be outside the MOE, but it would signify a “tightening”
I agree. Last newspoll was 54-46. Tightening but still in a position to win would suggest 53-47 or at worst 52.5-48.5.
Has to be 53/47 I would have thought. Which will be disappointing if a large amount of the polling was done yesterday, during the Lindsay saga.
Ha. I can’t subtract either.
53/47 to Coalition?
Thanks SL.
I wish he’d said where he got the info from — I’m guessing Jim would use reliable sources, even if he is a bit middle-of-the-road he always seems dependable
I don’t think Lindsay is going to swing the national vote too much. Might pull a percentage or two in certain seats though.
So in the Oz’s editorial, it says that the latest Newspolling (which was still going on last night) shows the coalition coming back strongly…
Anyone concerned?
Lose the election please@128:
Anything we Democrats can do to sweeten the deal?
Galaxy Primaries 42.5 (ALP) to 42.5(Lib)
Preference Split: 15% -> 9.5(ALP) to 5.5(Lib) ie. 63% toi Lab
Nielson 48 (ALP) to 40 (Lib)
Preference Split: 12% -> 9(ALP) to 3(Lib) ie 75% to Lab
Who is right?
169 - please do not use that word. You clearly have no idea just how offensive it can be.
Latest Lindsay campaign update all liberal booth workers will be wearing this on their tshirts.
I’m not a racist but…
I am a liberal.
My biggest fear in this election is how many seats Labor will lose so closely. For example they need a swing of 8% but they only 6.5%.
Spent a few hours handing out how-to-vote cards for the ALP in London and surprisingly the Lindsay-leaflet saga was mentioned quite a few times by the people i was talking to. For some it was that last nail in the coffin getting them down to Australia House, put up with long queues and vote. Nothing motivates quite so much as anger.
As you would expect, there were lots of positive energy for Labor and the Greens from the predominately young group of voters.
Greens were spruiking very hard on the fact that people can vote Green because their preferences were going directly to Labor.
And Morgan has a 60% split for preferences
The Newspoll rumours is like a game of Chinese Whispers. Hopefully, somebody leaks it properly soon before we all drown in a sea of disinformation.
Is that a joke Anthonyl? - Its almost believable !
This could be the first election since ‘96 where the preferred PM has not won the election.
Thats incorrect LTEP. Rudd been preferred every time - get your hand off it!
Lose The Eeyore Please - no it wont be.
For a Morgan Poll, 54.5/45.5 is not that great to be honest. Forgive me, I’ve become a tad bit pessimistic.
Rudd is preferred pm. Anyone saying the libs will win with 48% of the vote needs to get their hand off it. It will not happen.
Settle down Nervous Nellies. There’s nothing you can do to change anything now. The course is set.
My prediction is 53.4 2PP, 83 seats.
LTEP @ #144
I’m not normally one to turn an elector away from “my” party, but you don’t come across as a Greens voter to me. You’re way to pessimistic and negative. We Greens are full of hope and optimism for the future. And while we welcome all new members, I feel that from your postings over the last few months, and your mood today, you might be better off parking your vote with the Dems. They are in terminal decline anyway, and may suit your mindset better.
But if you ever decide to embrace hope and optimism, Bob’s waiting for your call….
DR
The size of the Labor win will be dependant on how the preferences flow.
Don’t panic:
(1) Possum says ALP 55-45 (based on in-depth analysis of poll trends), and see his comments on Galaxy’s methodology,
(2) The bookies have about 1.20 / 4.60. Do many bookies go broke?
(3) Shortest spread is ALP to win 53% to 54%
(4) Look where the leaders are campaigning: not in marginal seats but where the Libs hold 5 - 10 % - both of them.
Sit back, relax, enjoy.
Suncorp stadium here I come!
To the punters (Ashley and Swing Lowe, I’m particularly looking in your direction) have you got anything on this exact Labor seats market: https://www.portlandbet.com/index.php?cPath=3156&event_id=ALL&market_type_id=-#go_?
Collapsed a bit since it opened but still looking pretty generous through the 90s. I got 95 and 96 seats at 81-1 yesterday
184 Ave it 07 Good to see you have got a democracy at last in the UK. How long did it take to change the house of Lords?
There seems to be a misconception about polling in the marginals.
A smaller swing in marginals is by definition not that much of a problem - they are marginal, it only takes a smallish swing to win them. The big swing is only required to win the safer seats.
Likewise a result of 52-48 in marginal seats (or any government held seats) would be fine for the ALP. What would be a problem would be if the 52-48 represented big swings to the ALP in safe and marginal Labor seats, with relatively little movement in safe and marginal government seats. That does not appear to be the case.
I still can’t see Labor winning. I only say that because my first election was in 1996 and therefore I’ve only ever known and seen John Howard victories. These past 11 years have been hell on my mentality. I’ve become so cynical and angry because of the Howard Government ( and the media ). I used to love Australia but Howard has made me very unpatriotic. Every day, actually every hour for the past 11 years I have something bad about the Howard Govt go through my head which brings me down. Something on tv or a lyric in a song can just make me depressed because it has a link to what Howard has done or is doing. For the sake of my mental health I hope Howard loses but I don’t have any faith in the Australian public. God I need help.
So AC Nielsen is now the outlier?
And funny how the media this morning only discussed the Galaxy poll: showing their biases again!
Aussieguru01. stop rubbing it in.
A smaller sing in marginals (be definition less than 6%) is completely irrelevant when the nationwide swing is also at least 6%. For any seat saved, another will go.
Luke. hang in there buddy. having seen the defeats i too have been cautious. but this time i think its the real deal.
nice picture in the online version of Michelle Grattan’s Age piece this morn, shows a wood duck and a lame duck….
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/its-time-say-voters/2007/11/22/1195321951483.html
212 - House of lords is good!
I preferred it when there were only proper lords there tho, none of these ‘nominated’ do gooders!
I’m a bit like Luke! I’m getting anxious also! I guess the good thing about Galaxy and Newspoll is that it’ll cause some fence sitters to move into the Labor camp.
Patrick Bateman says: “A smaller swing in marginals is by definition not that much of a problem - they are marginal, it only takes a smallish swing to win them. The big swing is only required to win the safer seats.”
Correct Patrick, and if the swings in the marginals are not as large as the national swing (but as you point out, will still fall), then the swings in other less marginal seats will most likely be even bigger.
O’Shannasy wouldn’t be saying the result would be a cliffhanger if his poll was showing a bigger margin than 52/48. In this is the case there must be a late swing to the Govt not picked upped by ACN which started polling a day earlier than Galaxy.
ESJ @ 129. I actually didn’t receive an invite to this Nielsen, they randomize it within their pool of respondents. The online Nielsen isn’t self selected and it isn’t a rolling sample so there’s no reason to doubt its statistical credability.
Luke, I feel your pain. I feel it… but cling to hope, it’s all we’ve got (until tomorrow night, one hopes)
Dave R, you’ll hope one day when your party is in decline… and it will happen some day… that people don’t automatically count you out. All parties deserve the chance to get their message across.
To me, the Dems are hopeless media performers and don’t know how to run a campaign if their life depended on it… but when you watch them in Parliament it’s hard not to acknowledge their worth.
I dispute you on the Greens not being negative. Watch Senator Milne for a few hours and you will see negative. The hope for the Greens, to me, is Senator Siewert, who has credibility. In addition I’m impressed with Larissa Waters in Queensland. However, I’ve never been particularly fussed with Kerry Nettle, who happens to be the Senate candidate in my state. Hence the tough choice.
This is why Australia has a Senate, to piss off people like you.
Morning MM…1 more day to go YYyyyyyyyyyeesssssssssssssssss
the statement by the SMH that sources within both parties say the ACN poll more accurately reflects internal party polling is enough for me.
when the swing is on, its on.
Goodmorning AG01!! one more sleep!!!! woohoooooooooooooooooo!!!!! the champagne and xxxx is on ice!
Pancho @ 211,
That betting market looks a bit odd. What seems to be happening is that the money is being spread throughout the market, but particularly focused toward the higher end. I remember a couple of days ago that 100+ seats was at $101, now it is at $10.
My overall impression is that the punters have NFI how many seats that Labor is going to get, but they’re guessing that it’ll be somewhere between 79 and 91 seats.
middle man it’s a question of whether you believe SMH. I don’t. The official party lines are that it’s tight. There’s no reason they’d be letting it out of the bag now.
Anyone saying they are now “getting anxious” what did you expect?!
If I’d told you 10 months ago that on the eve of the election:
-ACN would come out 57-43;
-Galaxy would come out 52-48;
-the Australian, the SMH and the Daily Telegraph would endorse Rudd; and
-Centrebet would have the ALP favourite $1.25-$4.50
would you have told me you would be anxious at this point?
I think not.
You’re allowing yourselves to be fooled by a media keen for hype/a story, Coalition supporters desperate for something to hold on to in the hope of winning (just as ALP supporters were in 2004) and your own inate pessimism.
Look at it this way, even if Rudd loses:
-Howard is never standing for another election;
-polling companies are going to be worthless; and
-the world will keep turning.
LTEP,
The official party lines is that ACN is closer to what they’ve been hearing.
Greetings all.
Been reading this blog for a while now and have enjoyed it immensely. Like many here I long to see the end of conservative rule but cant help feeling nervous.
As I see it most Aussies still think the economy is going ‘gangbusters’ and this may see people drift back to the Coalition. Unfortunately the myth that Labor are poor economic managers persists in the minds of many and this may hurt the ALP.
As it is I’ll sleep restlessly tonight. I also feel some of the optimism expressed on these forums may be misguided. Hope I’m wrong and admit I’m no psephologist but my gut tells me its gonna be close. I’ve felt this way from day one and certain polls seem to confirm my fears.
Very sensible comment BV.
Letp. agreed on Kerry Nettle. She too easily opts for hyperbole to get her message across. a bit too much chicken little for me.
The betting markets follow the money - the money comes from regular Joes - the regular Joes don’t understand how our electoral system works.
The betting agencies are going to go out of business! The polling companies only reflect the 2PP result, which may still be close to the final outcome, but the number of seats needed won’t go to Labor.
The front page of the Herald - “Howard needs a miracle” - will be framed on the wall of Young Libs HQ.
I’m not getting burned again.
It should’ve been Latho, dammit.
Maxine’s odds have shortened even further!
:) 
Centrebet now has Howard on 1.72 and Maxine on 2.00!
*jumps for joy*
“Mr Rudd heads into the final two days of the campaign with an election-winning lead in the polls, although early figures from Newspoll and the latest Galaxy poll in News Limited newspapers give the Coalition some hope.
Newspoll is detecting strong gains for the Coalition in Western Australia and a minor recovery in Queensland and Victoria, with full figures to be available in the final poll of the campaign exclusively in The Weekend Australian tomorrow.”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22806913-11949,00.html
No I haven’t. The over-round is pretty large (ie. if you sum up the probabilities implied by the odds the total is much much bigger than 1) which means the bookie is being particularly stingy… which isn’t unusual when there are this many outcomes covered.
I’m tipping the ALP to win by 18 seats. Certainly don’t evpect them to win anywhere north of 90 seats total. Maybe next time they can solidify their majority.
I have seen the Newspoll chief on Skynews for a few interviews.
1. He always expresses astonishment that the “better economic manager” support for the Coalition has not resulted in Howard leading in the primary and 2PP.
2. He always talks up whatever part of that week’s poll is positive for the Coalition, in the same vein as Shanahan (though with less emotive language, of course).
3. He makes a big fuss that the approval/disapproval rating for Howard is “very good” for someone in the PM job so long, and says Rudd’s high approval rating is irrelevant because it’s for Opposition Leader, not PM.
3. He often answers questions which are merely his opinions about the election campaign and totally irrelevant to his polling.
4. He is very defensive about having stuffed the 2PP calculations last time, and says Newspoll has gone back to old calculation used before 2004.
As for his comments reported in here this morning, are they in the genre of Gary Morgan’s too close to call CYA comments reported in here, but with the added spin of how long the count will take. I hope he didn’t use the word “certain” because that’s not a word anyone with credibility would use about their polling data and calculations.
William would it be possible to set something up where all bloggers here, of whatever persuasion, can register their prediction of say TPP and seats in the one place, so that we can really see who was closest in the final wash-up.
Hopefully it might avoid some of the spin-doctoring that will occur, when people try to explain away their errant multiple predictions.
Perhaps in tabular form something like :-
USERNAME TPP SPLIT ALP/L&NP ALP SEATS L/NP
Just a thought!
hunstundho. its all talk. it’ll all be within MoE. The GG is just talking up a fight. reminds me of teh press trying to talk up the QLD Reds v Waratahs match this year.
And I will lose a lot of money.
What I think this means:
Newspoll was projecting early this week that Labor would win 2 in W.A. now they will have a net gain of 0
Early this week Newspoll said Labor was on a 9.6% swing in QLD, take that down to 7 or 8%, which is still gigantic.
Early this week Newspoll said Labor was on a 6% swing in Victoria, take this down to 4.5 or 5%.
All the polls say Rudd is going to win. Galaxy says he will get 80 seats, AC Nielsen says he will get 95 - 100. Newspoll will probably fit in at 85 - 90.
But the real answer is only 1 day away!
less than 24 hours till the election day,
I don’t see any narrowing in the betting markets,
Average across the markets: Labor 1.22 / Coalition 4.30
BetFair has best offer for both parties: 1.25 / 4.8
If ACN is more correct than the other two. That will mean a big shake up or at least wierd spin in the years ahead when News LTD are reporting on its own future polls.
Hustundho,
That report seems to be in line with the statement by Jim Middleton on ABC 702 this morning that there has been a slight narrowing, but Labor still in front. I’m still sticking with my 53/47 prediction for Newspoll.
Did O’Shannasy actually say the newspoll was showing “a cliffhanger”?
Middle Man,
Agree with you on that point. The MOE seems to have disappeared from political commentators’ vocabulary in the past two weeks…
O’Shaughnessy said that Galaxy was showing a “cliffhanger” - I believe…
Morning K Jin!
On the day i’m picking 54.5… or a bit higher… but not the full 55.
What the latest polls are showing is that every vote counts. People will rightly feel as they go into the polling booth that it is their vote that could be difference, for either party.
It’s been an extremely long campaign which basically started in December last year when Mr Rudd became Opposition Leader. Whatever happens tomorrow I think for the ALP to be in the position they are in is amazing. Both sides know they are in a battle.
I would say Mr Rudd has had a better year politically than the PM. He has withstood nearly a year of constant attacks and criticisms. To out campaign someone like JWH is a feat in itself.
I sincerely hope the poll tomorrow reflects the sentiment of the whole year and the ALP are successful. I would say that most of us have enjoyed the contests of differing opinion from all sides of the Australian political spectrum on this fantastic site . Thanks William, you’ve made this election a great roller coaster ride for all of us.
Trioli said on ABC radio yesterday that both parties internal polling indicated an 8 seat Labor victory. I’m not sure how credible that is, but it was reassuring, particularly in light of the SMH remark.
Well that’s quite different then. It’s fair enough if he wants to call Galaxy a cliffhanger…. but I thought some folks were suggesting that he said that Newspoll was also a cliffhanger?
Swing Lowe. it has competely disappeared. they are reading 1 point moves as though they are true and accurate reflections of the whole populace. these are guides.
If Trioli was saying that I’d say it’s pretty good… particularly since she was stating both parties’ internals were showing that.
It depends who told her though.
(Note - there are two posters using “Andrew” here now…)
The betting markets follow the money - the money comes from regular Joes - the regular Joes don’t understand how our electoral system works.
The betting agencies are going to go out of business! The polling companies only reflect the 2PP result, which may still be close to the final outcome, but the number of seats needed won’t go to Labor.
The front page of the Herald - “Howard needs a miracle” - will be framed on the wall of Young Libs HQ.
I’m not getting burned again.
It should’ve been Latho, dammit.
Ashley there were:
Newspoll is detecting strong gains for the Coalition in Western Australia and a minor recovery in Queensland and Victoria, with full figures to be available in the final poll of the campaign exclusively in The Weekend Australian tomorrow.”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22806913-11949,00.html
Btw, my TPP prediction is 53.5/46.5. Just a hunch - nothing much to back me up on that one…
Andrew,
You should change your profile name then…
Martin O’Shaunessy/Gary Morgan - peas from the same pod. Both like to interpret their own polls according to their political leanings. Both like to see their names being reported. Both like to be controversial.
Assuming the (as yet unannounced) Newspoll to be 52 or 53 for Labor…
For O’Shaunessy to talk about cliffhanger/won’t know for a week etc on the basis of ONE poll, when the moe for this upcoming poll is probably no smaller than 2.5% (prob +/- 3%), is really showing his colours.
He knows full well that the undecideds/don’t cares/apathetics split mostly to the party with the momentum when they get to mark their ballot paper.
This is the reason for his statements today - and also the purpose of the headline in News Ltd tabloids. For example, see..
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/
…with statements like “knife edge” and photo “finish” when commenting on the Galaxy poll (also just one poll with moe of probably 3%).
For their supporters, the LNP needs to be seen at this late stage to be on the way back.
Maxine is in to $2 in Bennelong at Centrebet!!!
The betting contest is also tighetening in Longman!
BROUGH 1.65, SULLIVAN 2.10 (Centrebet)
I said somewhere yesterday that Michelle Grattan wouldn’t take kindly to Howard’s attempt to fob off questions about possible candidate involvement in the Kelly Gang affair.
Looks like I was right!
THAT the Coalition apparently stands on the brink of defeat at tomorrow’s election is an extraordinary indictment of John Howard.
This Prime Minister has been the overwhelming driving force in his Government and, if the Coalition is swept away, as the polls are suggesting, he will have to shoulder most of the blame personally.
He has made bad decisions this term, ranging from WorkChoices to his refusal to retire. After many years of warning against hubris he has succumbed to it. And he has run a poor campaign.
(Grattan from http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2007/11/22/1195321945520.html )
No, I’ll stick with my name.
My attempt to post under an alternate name resulted in the comment approval process again, and William is occupied elsewhere.
(Andrew - The one with the $200.00 bet)
240
Curtins for the Rodent
Already been done.
http://pbpredict.googlepages.com/home
Latest Lindsay campaign news.
Liberals will be wearing this message on their shirts.
I’m not racist but…
I am a liberal.
242 - Ashley - not as much as me
261. Swing Lowe
What is Howard at?
When do the betting markets close?
Hustundho,
Howard is at $1.72 on Centrebet.
Sportingbet has Howard up $1.58/$2.20
Portlandbet has Howard up $1.67/$2.08
bryce @ #260
Poster “toby” was giving advance Newspoll figures last night. He’s previous “advance” figures have been spot on.
TPP was 54/46.
he also gave state breakdowns. I can’t remember all:
Qld was a big gap at 56/44
Vic had narrowed considerably, maybe 52/48 (which surprised us all)
WA 48/52
SA ?
NSW ?
Toby did not have primaries.
Rudd, if elected, is promising to say sorry (and actually apologise) to the Aborigines in his first term.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22808100-29277,00.html
Galaxy is a good poll for Labor it gives the Coalition false hope, scares some people in voting for Labor in the fear Howard gets back in, then on Saturday comes the flood that washes them out of office
SA was 55/45 and NSW 54/46.
As I said earlier. Treat with caution as there was a strange ‘identity thraud’ plea that came from Toby.
thanks LTEP.
No they are all wrong its 60-40 Viva la educatione revolucione.
Galaxy may be considered the Accurate 1 with regrets to the last Fed, NSW and QLD elections. But in all these cases there didn’t seem to be a chance of a government change. As Galaxy has not been involved in a government change, maybe they should be discounted at this election as it appears there will be a change of government.
It’s important to note Rudd still enjoys a wid(ish) lead on Preferred PM 51-43 I believe. It’s hard to imagine the case where someone who has lead on Preferred PM for so long could fail to win the election.
Still… I suppose people could just love their local member that much.
All the TPP’s are based on preference flows. The Polls got this wrong in 2004 and changed their approach. Could that be wrong now? Are the Greens primary higher and is their preference flow going to be stronger to Labor?
TO WILLIAM BOWE
YOUR INTRO STORY HAS THE WRONG “MORGAN” FIGURES
YOUR Story says a 5.2 swing to Labor in the 22 ‘marginals’
BUT Morgan’s Poll sayss the 22 seat 2PP is Labor 51.5% tp 48.5%
ie a swing to Labor of 4.2% NOT 5.2% AS YOU REPORTED
Henry DO you agree ??????????????????
Rusty (195) It seems Galaxy have suddenly come up with a 2.5% primary for Family First, after having not registered a reading for them over their last three surveys since September. This seems to account for most of the 2.5% fall in their ALP primary since their last survey. The Coalition vote has increased by just 0.5%, yet somehow the two party preferred falls from 54/46 to 52/48.
Meanwhile Morgan comes up with 54.5/45.5 - a 7.2% swing since 2004 - and declares it will be a close election (WTF). It’s also worth noting that all of Morgan’s 5 or 6 phone polls over recent times have shown a lower ALP primary than their larger face to face ones. They will be putting out their final face to face poll tomorrow, so it’s most unlikely their 2pp figure will be any lower for Labor.
So far, on what we’ve seen, it’s very hard to see anything other than an ALP win. Newspoll will be very interesting
It will be close to 57% if not over it.
Howard and the libs have very few core constituances that support them.
Should be 92 seats minium and be interesting to see the number of ministers going, Hocker Pyne for starters, representing Work Choices and Aged Care which they have stuffed up. Brough is laso a big risk to go.
As to lib MP’s jumping ship after the elction, a good win by labor of 92 would see quite a few go as they would not relish the years in opposition, amore comfortable win could see some stay on to avert further seats being lost in by elections.
Either way Costello won’t stay around long, he won’t get the oppostion eader job and will probably only get get aminor shadow ministry.
Costelo was useless and a negative in government, no way the libs want him in any prominent position in opposition.
Downer will most likely be the stop gap opposition leader until they find someone sensible, most likely someone new brought into a seat vacated by one of the older libs in a by election.
Here’s Jackman from the Bulletin today for those who consider his opinions worth considering:
“Now if the Galaxy result is independent of the Nielsen result, then the probability of both outcomes is the product of the individual probabilities, or about .0005; i.e., 5 times in 10,000 would random sampling give rise to results at least as dispersed as the ones we got. If we add the on-line Nielsen poll to the mix, then it gets even more ridiculous. Sampling error alone can’t explain these diverse poll results.
The more plausible scenario is what are known as “house effects”. That is, Nielsen is doing something in its question-wording, its weighting, etc, that is generating some bias (and the fact that its phone and on-line polls agree so closely is interesting in this regard), and Galaxy has its own set of in-house procedures that is also generating some bias. Perhaps these house effects are small, perhaps large, we don’t know, at least not yet.”
Btw, one of my contacts who has strong connections to Grey says that Labor is in with a real shot there. He reckons there’s more chance of Grey falling to Labor than Boothby, as the local MP who is retiring there was responsible for building up the Coalition margin there.
That said, he still think it’s unlikely that Labor will win there, but expect a big swing.
Labors 2PP vote in 2004 was 47.26% as per http://www.aec.gov (Electoral commission)
Relax punters.
Newspoll is being spun - it will indicate, much like Morgan, that the real result is between Galaxy and ACN.
Fact: If it was very good for the coalition we’d already know it.
Ergo: It aint.
53+% and an piss easy win for the ALP. You can put that one in the bank.
I’m astonished by the GG editorial, and that in the Daily Telegraph, for that matter. Given the bias in their coverage of the campaign towards the Government, I can’t help thinking the editorials represent panic - sniffing the wind and jumping ship (to mix metaphors) to show they really are in touch with their readers. About the only bright point, if the weasel squeaks across the line tomorrow, will be the well deserved, copious servings egg on the faces of the respective editors and commentators of these two cynical and indelibly soiled rags.
Thanks 264! Please excuse my ignorance but how do I my prediction in?
53% you are being way to conservative Lefty E - all over suburban Australian, housewives are getting into their Kevin07 gear with a quiet and righteous determination to bring in the education revolution, Medicare Gold is having her hair done, Peter Garrett is getting a last minute polish and working families are looking to the heavens and saying at last our prayers have been heard… surely it will be 60%?
ESJ! You’re showing your ‘in-house bias’ you ALP hack. 57 tops.
ESJ
Its AUSTRALIAN working families.
Sheesh….get it right.
ESJ, don’t forget… they’re all going to go out the back door.
Yes LTEP all the unclean, wicked and insufficiently fervent will indeed be cast out the back door into damnation!
Has an election ever been decided in the last 2 days of a campaign without a dramatic intervening event?
Michael @ 293 - No.
the rattus is using the auto dial in dobell
ps we are on the do not call register
You know what O’S’s comments mean to me … they mean I’m keen to buy the Australian tomorrow to find out the truth. Actually, I’ll look on line, but the deal is his comments are all about circulation.
Go red!
Local free paper Penrith Press out today has the Lindsay pamphlet scandal on the front page and page 3 again with same photos as in the Tele. Yay!
Dolly Downer was bitchin’ (as only she can) on radio about how Rudd is just offering cliches from a marketing company, and then went on to say that he will wake up on Sunday morning with no idea how to run “Australia’s 1.1 trillion dollar economy”.
She’s a hoot! They just don’t get it: the population is sick of them, and no amount of badmouthing with their own silly mantras can change that.
Bring it on!
Message to nervous nellies:
can you think of a better way to firm up ALP voters than “oooh, its close” style reports?
Say farewell to Galaxy poll. They’ll be doing cutprice market research for Soul Pattison Chemists this time next week.
Does anyone know the betting odds prior to the last NSW election?
If Newspoll is showing 52-48 tomorrow than Labor will lose for sure. It is all over red rover. The Libs are back in power! Even 53-47 would see the Libs returned and possibly even 54-46 if the marginals hold.
Actually no matter what the polls show for Labor, it will be a close victory for the Libs.
How do I know this and how can I make such a bold and confident statement?
I read it on this forum…lol
Mr Awesome,
It was something like ALP $1.04/ Coalition $10.
Kirribilli Removals @ 297:
http://www.ozforums.com.au/viewtopic.php?id=2116
heard some goss that internal lib polling 2 weeks ago had them losing by only 3 seats….. gulp! I’m trying not to get nervy.
Check out this betting market at Sportingbet:
http://www.sportingbet.com.au/uipub/sport.aspx?l1id=34&l2id=189195&l3id=750185
I knew it! Morgan is going to b the closest final poll, and win back all their credibility!
Regardless of the differences in polls we have now had a consistent 100 all pointing to a Labor win and not one single solitary poll showing Libs any better than 48%. So it would seem 48% is the very best the Libs can hope for and while I know there are some on here that believe the Libs can win on 48% I don’t, no party has EVER won on 48% (Lowest is 48.9 assisted by One Nation).
I have seen nothing in the campaign itself to suggest a potential collapse of ALP vote so am very confident of approx 54/46 result with ALP at least 85 seats.
The Lib’s can now go back to being the Opposition part that they all aspired to. I always thought Costello would be a great Opposition leader as he can’t say anything without putting the Labor part down - a true reactionary. He can only react to what others are doing.
Luke @ 214
I reckon they’ve got it this time. I remember the 1993 election. I was sure Hewson would take it and, believe me, that Fightback package was scary. Nick Greiner was in in NSW and Kirner was imploding in Victoria. Kennet was waiting in the wings. Fightback was replete with then fashionable, untested Thatcherite extreme policies. I well remember the headiness of conservatives who were convinced that the only role of government was law and order and defence. Some even wanted to privatise consular functions of Asutralian embassies.
Well, the night of the 93 election, a steamy March night, I tuned in to Red Kerry, as usual. Bob McMullan started off looking grim and the liberal hack (can’t remember who) looked cocksure to say the least. About 7 pm, Bob started saying things like “I think we’ll hold that one” and similar. The night just got better and better.
I anticipate a similarly good night on Saturday and have just about dispelled my fears that the 2007 election will be the exact inverse of 2003.
Enjoy.
SIEV XI, don’t beileve rumours of internal polling.
Trioli has mentioned internal polling from both parties suggests a win by the ALP by 8 seats.
Apparently both sides of internal polling are currently closer to the ACN poll
Update on Matt Price -
I sent an email message to the Canberra Bureau Chief to ask about him. I received a reply today in my inbox with this information.
The tumour was cancerous. He has undergone (past tense) heavy doses of radio therapy in the past weeks. Doctors still do not know yet if it has worked. It is too soon to tell yet.
Matthew Franklin (Canberra Bureau Chief) says we could all pray for him.
Er… exact inverse of 1993. Sorry
Is there any truth to the push polling rumor re: Galaxy?
That’s very sad news Julie. It’s tough to beat if it’s malignant. I’m sure he’s a fighter though.
Nothing concrete, but several people here have raised anecdotal evidence, whatever that’s worth
Of course Galaxy was push polled ND, there is a wave of righteous anger in this nation demanding that the Great Satan and his hoarde be expelled from the people’s house and demanding that Kevin come and restore peace and harmony to Australian working families.
simon jackman..
‘If we do what statisticians call a precision-weighted average, we wind up with 55.7%, with the larger sample size of the Nielsen poll giving it higher weight. ‘
http://thebulletinelection.ninemsn.com.au/polls_diverge_but_labor_still_on_course_for_victory.htm
ahhhhh thats better
BV, we all love Dolly, eh? She gives good quote, as they say!
Speaking of lines, I had to pinch myself after reading the GG’s editorial:
We recognise that no change is free of risk, but we recommend a vote for Mr Rudd.
Am I dreaming?
Yes, that’s terrible news on Matt Price. It’ll take a while to fight that off…
I just remembered an interesting article I read a month or two ago in which The Age referred back to their polling in 1996 which showed a similar stability to this years’ polls. They said, when averaging them that the result was very close to the final result.
They then went on to look at what this years’ result should be if that held true and came up with 57/43.
gee seems ESJ has been converted.
hehaheahehahehahe
believe you me. newspapers know all the inside running. they just cant print it as its not “on the record”. If the DT, CM and GG are backing Rudd you can be guaranteed they know whats going on.
Its a state by state or key demographic consideration.
Age on the fence? Hun going against stable mates. i reckon they know there isn’t much of a swing in the state.
CM and DT know the swing is on in QLD and NSW so are going with their customers.
The GG takes a national view therefore backing the overal winner Rudd.
AFR is for the business types who all regardless of background seem to think they shoudl be liberal voters.
Julie: That’s sad to hear about Matt Price. Hope he can pull through.
qld will bring home for the local lad. just watch.
Much better Esj. Now if you could just so something about how Mr howard has no plan for the future, make some references to “stale” and “out of touch”, i’ll be happy!
Does anyone know where Rudd is campaigning today? A few weeks back I heard he was thinking of leaving the last day for a swing through Bennelong, Wentworth and North Sydney. But maybe they have backed off due to the likely accusation that he was succumbing to hubris.
Is he in NSW today?
Of course nothing would have changed too much, especially nothing favourable for Howard. I would expect Howard to actually lose more votes for a pretty bad week.
The polls are giving the usual noise. I have more trust in AC Nielsen than Morgan F2F or Galaxy simply because it has been consistent in its polling figures compared to election results since 1996. So its recent figures probably tell the right story, though the latest one is at the high end of moe.
The Morgan phone polls seem of late to now reflect the same levels as Newspoll/Nielsen.
Newspoll and Nielsen have been telling the exact same story, a 54%+ result is on the cards.
If this Morgan is correct it would be the worst possible news for the LNP. Getting just the right amount of swing in the marginals to win them leaves all that ’spare’ swing to pick up a bunch of safe seats. Possum’s analysis in action.
The Liberals wont even get close, regardless of what the next Newspoll says. It is all too late.
Swing Lowe 269
The Narrowing! The Narrowing!
It is proven fact that rainfall has always be higher under a Labour government than a Liberial Government.
An unproven forecast I just heard is for above normal rainfalls in the summer months ahead.
I am just off to the kitchen to inspects the entrails of last nights chicken.
330 - why do we only taint change with risk? I would have thought that doing nothing (or not changing) was fraught with risk.
Thats funny schtick today, ESJ.
Ron Brown, Morgan’s article contains a table which indicates the combined 2004 result in the 22 marginal seats they have covered was 53.7-46.3, and their current polling has it at 48.5-51.5. Hence a 5.2 per cent swing.
yes K Jin, Kevin Rudd’s first action will be to say “Let there be rain” and then there will be rain.
After the election the Galaxy Poll will be shiped of to a Galaxy far far away.
Fine analysis, as usual, Kina @ 338. Jackman seems in line with your reasoning in his Bulletin article today.
With thanks to Aristotle yesterday, let’s look at the final ACN polls over the last few elections. Look at the Labor polling vs the actual vote in each.
1996 election L/NP ALP
ACN 46 (-1) 41 (+2.3)
Result 47 38.7
1998 election L/NP ALP
ACN 42 (+2.5) 40 (-0.1)
Result 39.5 40.1
2001 election L/NP ALP
ACN 46 (+2.9) 38 (+0.2)
Result 43.1 37.8
2004 election L/NP ALP
ACN 49 (+2.3) 37 (-0.6)
Result 46.7 37.6
they’ve got a pretty good record at picking the final ALP figure. If they’re this close again, it’s a drubbing.
For everyone concerned about the polls, think about this:
When has any election (anywhere) been close when the TPP is 53/47? When has a 53/47 polling result suggested a close election?
The answer is simple - never.
When Sarzoky beat Royal in this year’s French Presidential Election, it was considered a landslide. If Newspoll is 53/47, it should signify the end of JWH - not a close result.
Re 85,
Edward StJohn Says:
Yes, I lived through this. I was 13 when Nixon resigned. Agreed. The Libs need a CLEAN break with no or very few holdovers or they won’t be able to resell themselves to the electorate. Very astue observation from a Liberal supporter
Im not changing, its too risky. Im not moving to that chair to watch the telly, as I havent done it before, and the experience may be full unknown terrors.
In fact, I’m going to sit here and not even blink, case I miss a single moment of never being better off.
I must say I agree Swing Lowe. And I’d like to add that the apparent acceptance over the last 10 months that 48-52 is “close” and “winnable” for the Coalition could in part be put down to Coalition supporters framing such a result, should it eventuate tomorrow, as somehow not a terrible loss. I beg to differ. And will do so loudly.
Thanks, Julie for for the update on Matt Price. Malignant brain tumours are never good news. Our thoughts are with Matt and his family.
Any loss for the Libs will be a terrible loss. 3 years ago it was unimaginable that the ALP could even come close to winning. Somehow this has turned into it being unimaginable that the ALP could lose.
And then LTEP, the fields will bloom and the peasants will sing as they bring in the bountiful harvest. Workers will link hands with the peasants and throw out the running dogs in the GG.
The national birthrate will rise, Medicare Gold will be abolished in the second term as no one becomes sick ever more …..
Yeah, the “we can win at 48%” line is the equivalent of the Volkssturm troops in April 1945. Old blokes and 14 yo with Panzerfausts, facing the Red Army.
Its all illusion. The line cannot hold. The Libs will lose at 52-48.
Not that it will be that close!
I JUST SPOKE TO GARY MORGAN
to let him know his 5.2% marginal swing to Labor is mathematically wrong
because the swing is 4.% not 5.2 % in the marginals based on his figures
ie. Morgan is showing Labor in marginals at 51.5% to 48.5%
against 47.26% in 2004 election
ie. a swing of 4.2% NOT 5.2%
GARRY MORGAN AGREED WITH ME AND SAID HE WOULD CORRECT HIS PRESS RELEASE AND WEB SITE !!
Unfortunately fellow guys , Labor can NOT win on Morgan’s 4.2% marginal swing
and realistically can not win on Galaxy’s overall 4.8% swing
Good point LTEP.
It mustn’t be forgotten that this election should have been unloseable for the coalition.
:):):):):)
When the polls are saying somewhat divergent things then go to the great aggregators of this information, and that is the betting markets.
Labor is $1.20-$1.22 and has not moved today. Neither the Galaxy poll nor the ACN poll has moved the market.
On these figures, Labor has about a 79% chance of winning the election, which is highly likely but not certain.
For comparison, on the eve of the last election, the coalition was at $1.16, implying an 82% chance of winning, a little bit higher.
Of course then the coalition only had not to lose 10 seats to win the election, whereas this time Labor has to win 16. Yet Labor’s chances in 2007 are rated only slightly less likely than the coalition’s were in 2004.
And let’s remember, on the day before the 2004 election, betting odds aside. only a mad man would have given Labor any chance at all of winning, and so it proved.
Ron Brown/Lefty E
You see faith in the fuhrer’s miracle weapons was not mistaken.
ALP is gone according to Ron Brown. Libs to win on 48-52
Re 119,
Howard Hater Says:
I know …… I was hoping too that he would be in Bennelong today. I hope that Maxine gets up in the seat but if she doesn’t, I wonder if he will regret not going there today. I don’t doubt for one minute that they will win by enough in margin that one seat (be it Bennelong or any other) isn’t going to matter, but it would be a crying shame to have to have her get the seat in a byelection.
Exactly Swing Lowe. In any past election the media would be proclaiming 53/47 as a landslide. The only difference this time around it that expectations have been raised so high on the back of 12 months of ALP 55-58.
galaxy and morgan are polling sideshows. more volatility than Mark Geyer!
ACN has long been the real deal.
Here’s a note that recently turned up in my email, it’s from David Williamson, via a few other people.
Hang in there folks.
David Williamson writes:
In 1971 I wrote the play Don’s Party about the 1969 election night, when Labor supporters were fervently hoping for the arrival of the Great Gough. As it turned out he was five seats short of arriving and we had to wait until 1972 before the long dark night of conservative rule ended.
The similarities with this Saturday’s election are obvious, and many of the old baby boomers, faint memories of the idealistic dreams of the sixties not yet erased by Alzheimer’s, are hoping fervently we won’t see a re-run of 1969. There are many reasons to wish Johnnie bon voyage, the most pressing being the thought of another eighteen months of television footage of his morning walks.
It’s time to say no to those daggy shorts, the horrible knees, the resolute stride towards a neo con past where Anglo man still rules the world, and the total lack of wit or spontaneity in his travelling badinage. Joy number two will be picturing the tears and foot stamping of the well paid hosts of Howard acolytes littering our press.
Any journalist who can turn a man his own party dubbed a “lying rodent”, into the Saint who saved Australia, has, like their idol, a superb grasp of slippery rhetoric which has hopefully earned them enough money to retire. These same scribes have falsely divided Australia into “Howard hating elites”, and “ordinary Australians,” without ever asking the question as to why many with the remnants of a conscience, including “ordinary Australians”, find it hard to stomach him.
The shameless exploitation of fear and hysteria over four hundred genuine and dehydrating refugees on Tampa might be a start. The ludicrous and hugely expensive “Pacific solution” might be another. The moral sleaze of the Saddam kickbacks, the lies of children overboard, the blatant and immoral pork barrelling of Coalition electorates, the attempt to deliver a cowed and cheap workforce to employers without a mandate, the constant and unrelenting grovelling to George Bush, the deathbed conversion to climate change and reconciliation lite - the list could go on.
If John can’t pull a Tampa out of his baggy green in this last week, it looks over for him. But we’ve been through 1969, and the anxiety is rising nonetheless. The thought of the most unlovely and thuggish front bench in Australian political history, namely Abbott, Downer, Costello, Ruddock, Andrews, Hockey and the rest retaining power is a thought that could send our already soaring rate of depression exponential.
If Rudd does win it will be heartening proof that the cynical pundits who say the hip pocket nerve is the only factor are wrong. Many would like a return to simple decency, and Rudd patently has more of it than Howard. If it’s not a re-run of 1969 and John and Janette are prised out of Kirribilli, the greatest relief for me will still be the end of the morning walks.
The met bureau is forecasting drought breaking rains in Queensland over coming months. In 1983, just after Hawke was elected, the then drought broke. Hawke, of course, claimed the credit. I guess Rudd will do the same. Why not?
Ron Brown,
Then Gary Morgan is an idiot - William has given a perfectly good explanation for why it is 5.2% rather than 4.2% at 343.
The point Howard misses is although people may be richer materially than they were 11 years ago we as a society have become poorer.
Ron Brown, if the swing is 4% in marginals, then it must be about 10% in the rest of Australia no? With numbers like this it is all over, no matter how you wish to spin it. Maintain the rage though…
Great article at OLO comparing 2007 with the 1929 election in which Labor was elected two days before the Wall Street crash:
http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=6681
Includes this quote:
“A Rudd Government, if we get one, might last as long as Scullin’s did. That would take us perhaps to the beginning of 2010. Labor would probably split long before that. The Treasurer or some other minister might take a few Labor dissidents to form a government with Opposition members led perhaps by Peter Costello. Somehow, we might then stumble through a long, deep and terrible depression, to end around, let us say, 2017 in World War Three.”
It took til then before I appreciated the humour.
Ron Brown, if you really did speak to Gary Morgan can you please call him back and ask him “is Australia heading in the ‘right direction’”?
356 Ron Brown.
You are using the 2004 2pp of the entire 150 seats as the base not of just the 22 marginals. See William’s post at 343 for the explanation of why he is correct.
It doesn’t say much for Gary Morgan if he agreed with you.
Chris in London,
What the h*** has happened to Brown? I have Sky on now and this half hour is the British Sky news. They just showed Brown’s opinion polls. 33% drop in overall approval and who can best handle the economy. It isn’t just the identity scandal of the computer discs being lost. My goodness ….. back 2 months ago, people were speculating if Britain would call a snap election before we went to the polls. With the Tories now having the best polls in 15 years maybe Glenn and company can relocate to London after tomorrow night ?
You’re applying a marginal seats 2007 poll to a NATIONAL 2pp result in 2004. It’s not comparable.
“You’re applying a marginal seats 2007 poll to a NATIONAL 2pp result in 2004. It’s not comparable.”
Maybe so. BUT WHAT IF RON WRITES IN CAPITALS?
Rudd does not need viagra to make his poll figures look good.
Howard on the other hand…well…and even then his figures need to be artificially inflated for him to have any lift off.
yes we’re all so stupid that if Ron write in caps maybe we’ll understand him.
Julie. someone in the public service over there sent a file containing millions of records of families with kids, their personal details, how much they get paid from the govt, the bank account it gets paid to etc, through the internal govt mail and it never arrived at its destination. Its gone missing.
The public are going ballastic over it!
New poll in Boothby by Adel. Uni reported on ABC Local Radio, very close, details not on web page yet. Apologies if someone reported already, I’m snowed under with work stuff & can’t go through all comments to check. Local forum of candidates on radio, Cornes a no show, but crowd & calls very anti-Libs so far. Local State independent member in area own polling in some of Boothby same pattern.
LOL pancho!
i wRITE iN tOGGLE tO bUILD tHE tENSION!
No one can discount Galaxy completely until tomorrow evening, we’ll know either way by 7.30pm. I CAN HARDLY WAIT. Having an Election party drinks.
NewsPoll guy spends far too much time drooling over Helen Daley everytime I see him to make any sense.
347
Holy sh**….
With this track record, we can expect an OVERestimation of the Lib primary, and pretty much bang on for the Labor primary. That means the REAL result is likely to be about 48-38 on primaries and therefore a bigger landslide than 1996, not to mention that the ALP will also win the preferences, blowing it out even further!!
Won’t galaxy look link a pack of numpties if this is the case.
Leave Ron alone! I once had a boss who used capitals all the time because he did not know when they should be used!
Re 212,
Bushfire Bill Says:
Still off the smokes?
@380
lEFTY, yOU’RE kILLING mE wITH tENSION!!!!
Mine is 53.7 Labor. How many seats?
yOu cAlL tHAt tEnSioN ?
Damien J
my economic history is a little hazy these days, but was not Australia already in a terrible trough by the time of the Wall ST crash and that was the reason the Bruce government fell and then things only got worse after the crash on Wall ST and Labour was then thrown out.
Don’t know if this has been posted, well worth a look:
http://www.domain.com.au/Public/PropertyDetails.aspx?adid=2006832414
Ha Ha
I think it’s interesting that noone is seriously suggestion the Coalition will obtain a majority of the 2PP, yet it is open that they may win the election.
I have to echo ESJ on his desire to implement MMP in Australia.
If Boothby is going to be tight that’s a decent sign.
220 Luke,
Well said
….. don’t worry, you are not alone. I married my Aussie husband in 1996 but have been ineligible to vote until this election. I’ve lived through all of those defeats too but haven’t been able to add my vote into the tally until now. It has been incredibly frurstrating for me because I have not been able to participate before this year.
ESJ
I love your The Senator character. I’ve been speculating on whether he might be real, and who he might be based on.
My first guess was Heff. I based this on yours and his obsession with (mg) Gillard. And especially so when you related Glen being called to a special assignment in Brisbane in a chicken suit.
Now, with the exile plans you outlined (which sound way too sophisticated for Heff), I’m not so sure. Any further hints?
Don’t know if this has been posted before, but it’s a cracker:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H1lYCbjzQ4I
Howard is in Leichhardt and Herbert today - not a good sign if you’re a Coalition supporter…
Let’s put the ‘Libs can win on 48% proposition’ to the sword. What happened in 1998 was due to a very specific set of results in a number of marginal seats. The chances of such a thing happening tomorrow is very slim indeed. Sure, the system favours the Libs slightly, but with polling showing some predicted huge swings out there, the ‘48% win’ idea is just ludicrous.
THere will be a horror movie made soon, called ‘The narrowing’ about a homicidal poison dwarf called the rat that looks like a duck crossed with a chimpanzee.
Does anyone remember 2004 where the accepted wisdom was that Labor needed a primary of only about 40% to be in with a chance of winning on preferences. The lowest primary for Labor I have seen is this Galaxy with it at 42.5% which is still damn good given Labors recent form on primaries. The mere fact that the worst poll for the ALP has them equal with the Liberals on primaries is something that we could have only dreamed about in 2004.
Also, in the same way that the media (and bloggers) talked up the chances of Latham winning with a hopeless primary vote of 40% or below, they are now talking up the chances of Howard winning with a 2PP of 48%. It is all about maintaining interest I would suggest. There are a lot more dollars to be made out of a close eleciton that a likely landslide.
Don,
I can tell you the Senator was obsessed in his teenage years with A ClockWork Orange. He believes Cabinet government is similar to being a member of the Droogs.
LTEP
We should form a unity ticket. I’d say if the Libs sneak in on 48% (and after seeing the Gary Nairn sugar daddy ad who knows) there may be a whole lot of Labor people who suddenly discover the merits of MMP.
Nothing has happened in this campaign to move votes to Howard. In fact, the campaign has cost him. Possum is right: there has been no narrowing. Arguing about a point here or there is irrelevant to what is happening out there. Long ago Australians decided it was time for a change - we know that because of the tens of thousands that have been sampled. It is over - the only issue is wether Labor has 85 to 90 seats,or 90plus.
From Today’s Illawarra Mercury (a very right-wing Fairfax rag) that Gash will retain Gilmore, a NSW southcoast seat, but the last paragraph is interesting!
Exclusive poll: Gash to cling on
PAUL McINERNEY
A Mercury/IRIS Research poll of Gilmore voters shows Mrs Gash has a two party-preferred lead of 53 to 47 per cent. But the significant erosion of her primary vote means the once safe Liberal seat has now been reshaped into a marginal electorate which will play a key role in the outcome of future federal ballots.
The poll gives Mrs Gash her fifth term in Parliament, but allowing for a margin of error in polling, she could be sitting on a cushion of less than the predicted 2.9 per cent.
Mrs Gash received a primary vote of 50.62 per cent - a 3.58 per cent drop based on 2004 redistributed results.
Because her predicted majority is so small, the two party preferred figures provide a more accurate picture of the likely outcome.
“This is a very large swing, certainly well above the level being measured against the Coalition across NSW, but I think Mrs Gash will just get over the line,” IRIS Research executive director Simon Pomfret said.
If the swing against Mrs Gash was to be translated across the country, the Howard government would be swept away in a historic landslide victory for Labor leader Kevin Rudd.
Speaking of ads, as we were, the current ALP ad on SMH online is a beauty, and actually made me laugh as a growling Howard is replaced by a super smirking Costello. Worth a look.
“359
Edward StJohn Says:
November 23rd, 2007 at 11:31 am
Ron Brown/Lefty E
You see faith in the fuhrer’s miracle weapons was not mistaken.”
YAAA IST GOOOT, VERE IST VENCK????
DONT worry Ron - Labor WILL win, easily, NO doubt, Without doubt. EVEN if Morgan had ALP 37% LNP 63%. IT IS ALL TOO LATE FOR Mr Rodent.
There is only one question that remains - How BIG will the win BE.
ND- nice point. But it doesn’t make me any less nervous. I’m almost positive labor’s in like flynn, but I still have a tiny part of me not wanting to jinx it and will celebrate like a mofo tomorrow night (hopefully).
Gusface @ 302 I just bumped into ur other half at tuggerah shopping centre.
She says she hasn’t been able to get a kev07 shirt because you won’t get off the internet.
We’ve run out of adult sizes but we think we have some left for the kids.
Burgey that is hilarious.
Let’s have a look at the current state of play:
In favour of a Labor victory, we have:
1. Every poll conducted this year showing a Labor victory (including the Galaxy today)
2. Every bookie predicting a Labor landslide
3. Every bookie that offers individual seat betting showing Labor winning 16+ seats
4. Every bit of marginal seat polling showing Labor will win at least 18 seats NET
In favour of a Coalition victory, we have:
1. A bunch of hypothetical scenarios showing how the Coalition may be able to win with 48% TPP (note that a Monte Carlo simulation done on a 52/48 TPP to Labor suggests that Labor has an 80% chance of winning on this TPP)
2. Nothing
So why are people nervous?
seems the chaser lady will still be on seven.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Kelly-going-ahead-with-Seven-appearance/2007/11/23/1195753265421.html
ESJ & Co @ 349 etc
Read this if you haven’t already about those lurking ready to ‘çlean out’ the Libs after it happens tomorrow.
The Lindsay brethren are in the same group. It won’t be a renewal, but rather a cultifying.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/unholy-battle-for-bible-belt/2007/11/22/1195321949400.html
swing lowe:
labor supporters are naturally pessimistic
#387 “Mine is 53.7 Labor. How many seats”
To answer your Q: 6.4% swing - 86 ALP, 62 LNP, 2 IND
a 4.5% swing (51.8% 2PP) - 76 ALP, 72 LNP, 2 IND
Swing Lowe at 409 - Because it has been 11 long years
Re 389 K Jin
Probably - it’s still a good article and made me laugh. Have a look.
http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=6681
I bet you Coalition supporters were quite nervous before ‘96, particularly given ‘93. Or they should’ve been in any case.
Swing Lowe, a good summary, but I won’t believe it will happen until it actually does. Labor has snatched defeat from the jaws of victory so often in the past that I am trying not to totally believe that they have won, even though all the objective evidence points to a resounding victory.
On the front page of ‘The Age’ today is a picture of two ‘ducks’ taken near Lake Burley Griffin. One is a live duck and one is a dead duck. The live duck is the one with feathers.
Thanks Tin Pusher.
I actually think 53.4 now but am sticking with 53.7 cause I said so earlier.
Well, it was misplaced, because those weapons didn’t win them the war…and the Galaxy weapon isn’t going to win either…
POLL UPDATE
Galaxy shows Labor primary 42.5% and Liberals 42.5%
Morgan shows overall Labor 44% to 40.5%
but in Marginals Morgan shows Labor 41.5% to 44.5% !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Conclusion
Galaxy are showing a 2% Labor primary drop in the last 2 weeks
Morgan are showing a 2% Labor drop in the last week (& a 0.5% Liberal rise)
I find it hard to believe such a Labor primary vote drop could occur
377,
I know that. I listen to Sky regularly (I know, I am a sucker for punishment) so I have British news on at least 30 minutes every day. The problem with the disks though has been just in the last few days to a week or so as I understand it (I could be wrong though, correct me if you know different?). Browns problem seems to extend back before that to sometime in September from the polling data I saw about 25 minutes ago.
@410 Blaicklight, Kelly on the election coverage?
THAT IS APPALLING. But then again its only channel 7.
RE tdt @347.
Very consistent results of being close on the opposition primary but 2% plus over on the government primary, including ALP in 96.
The point is that the ALP has done absolutely nothing wrong this campaign.
“Kevin has had his turn,
I am ready to serve this nation”
Julia Gillard, 25th November 2007
Alpal (401) Good point. Neither Nielsen or Morgan have shown any lessening of the ALP primary over the past six weeks. It will be interesting to see the Newspoll primary later tonight or tomorrow morning. Last time they had it at 46%.
I wonder if seven will invite sheik hillay
Has anyone considered the fact that if the ALP actually lose, then its hard to imagine a scenario where they could actually win short of the Coal imploding. They have run a perfect campaign. Kind of scary really.
Anyway 79 seats to the ALP, you heard it here first.
Nice concession, tabby cat…
You haven’t given up on your Libs 150 seat prediction already have you Tabitha?
Swing Lowe: My Monte Carlo simulation had 52/48 at 89% chance of an ALP win, 2% for a LNP win (including a 75 seat minority government), and 9% of the ALP with 74/75 seats.
Try this for size!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_zoXi0JYmmU
Ron Brown
My exclusive research shows that you have gained 55% this morning on the crucial question of “who is the most annoying poster?”.
ALP primary drop without a corresponding LNP rise just means Greens 1st prefs, and straight back to ALP (less $2.70).
Me, Im chillin’, never illin’.
All hail the Kruddmeister General!
What is happening with the FF primary vote - in both Galaxy and Morgan it has gone up 2% (which seems to be where the Labor primary is going).
Very unusual (particularly as FF has barely campaigned this election).
BV,
Have to agree with you there…
“Very unusual (particularly as FF has barely campaigned this election).”
Yes they have - it has just been a counterintuitive campaign - trying to wedge families with a ‘we’re conservative but love smut’ line.
“Julia Gillard launches shock leadership challenge after landslide election win”
CASSIDY JUST SAID TOMORROWS NEWSPOLL HAS LABOR 54.4! On chn2!
UNLESS HE MISPOKE< THATS WHAT HE SAID.
All the Nervous Nellies here should print off Swing Lowe’s #409 post and chant it over and over for the next 36 hours. Otherwise, just be relaxed and comfortable and put the beer in the fridge.
Julia Gillard, 25th November 2017
“Kevin has had his turn,
I am ready to serve this nation”
#440: Lies! I’ll believe it when I read it in the paper!
Ron, where is the extra primary coming from then in the national figure? It’s possible it’s all in Labor held seats but unlikely.
Barry Cassidy getting his revenge on Rudd by spouting Andrew Bolt!
He said Newspoll is out tomoorrw and that shows Labor 54…..
Now he may have mispronounced as he was talking about a number of polls.
Nostradamus you should already know the result.
Put it in a nice and vague quatrain for us will you.
Sweeeeet. Downer is going to be on Insiders on Sunday morning. Not to be missed!!! (Penny Wong also will be on).
A Newspoll representative on ABC radio news at 12.00 pm predicted a cliffhanger. No actual numbers yet.
Cassidy said Rudd “fell short” of showing he was a good alternative PM, but didn’t make any mistakes.
Its been a strange election. A few people I know who I was convinced would be voting Rudd have changed back to Howard. But on the other hand a good friend of mine who has always voted liberal will be voting for Rudd. So I really don’t know.
Commonsense tells me it should be around 54/46, but I have been so disappointed in the past that I can see a possibility of an upset. Just a possibility mind you. If it was close, Labor should squeak in.
I mentioned a week ago, that a staffer had told me that Goldstein was a possibility for a win, albeit still a very tough one to get over the line. Robb wouldn’t have done himself any favours since then with his hopeless media appearances on the Kelly and 13 ineligible ALP members affairs.
I am somewhat heartened by all these indicators that seats that the ALP shouldn’t even be contemplating winning are contests.
Hopefully, tomorrow night is a short night. I can’t bear the thought of having to wait for WA results to come in.
But that’s what he siad, I shit you NOT.
LTEP 416: “I bet you Coalition supporters were quite nervous before ‘96, particularly given ‘93. Or they should’ve been in any case.”
Not the coalition supporters I talked to, because
— Howard wasn’t Hewson (Rudd isn’t Latham)
— unlike ‘93, which was a horror show, in ‘96 they had run a virtually flawless campaign (ditto Labor ‘04 and ‘07)
— unlike ‘93, on the election eve in ‘96 the polls had them well in front (ditto Labor ‘04 and ‘07)
Did he? I was watching and I didn’t hear him say that.
Cassidy say Bolt is right that the electorate wants to change the PM, not the government. NO basis for this “wisdom” has ever been given.
Tabitha (426) Good to see you are finally conceding defeat. And for the record, most of us Labor supporters would be very happy to have Julia as our Prime Minister.
“Sweeeeet. Downer is going to be on Insiders on Sunday morning. Not to be missed!!! (Penny Wong also will be on).”
Oh yes! I hope I’m not too hungover to see the soupuss berating Australia for embracing a showoff. Merci Alex!
The symbol of longevity
Prevails in the south seas.
Remember that Egyptian fable
Again comes to pass.
There you go punters - Newspoll and Morgan to win the guernsey this time. Both about right on 54.5. Galaxy and ACN’s turn to spend 3 years in doghouse.
Did somebody say LANDSLIDE?
What did you hear then Ashley?????
K. Jin - Re: the Wall Street crash and the Great Depression. The crash was not the ’cause’ of the depression, but certainly didn’t help. The depression was a product of collapsing aggregate demand resulting in price deflation, resulting high unemployment and wage deflation, and entrenchment of a cycle of reducing agg demand, more unemployment and so on. The crash was a concatentation of a collapse in confidence resulting from the recognition that the ‘real’ economy wasn’t travelling well, which was reinforced by widespread margin lending, which left many people exposed. The depression endured for so long because governments didn’t understand that prices needed to rise and would only do so if demand increased - as Keynes pointed out. The conventional wisdom had it that fiscal retrenchment (cutting government spending to balance the budget) would result in recovery. This, of course, was nonsense, as even the Libs would probably say (if Treausry had the nous to tell them). A collapse such as that of 1929 would be very unlikely to have similar consequences today but would reflect to some extent concerns about the nature of actual economic activity. Our problem is not that Wall St goes south but that Chinese or Indian demand growth slows markedly or is stopped. Will this happen?
Australia wasn’t travelling well in the late 1920s and certainly didn’t go well into the 1930s but appears to have suffered somewhat less than many parts of the USA. Which is not to say it wasn’t terrible. The problem with stock markets and stuff is that they provide a singlepoint to focus on, and their importance as signals of economic activity are over-rated. IMHO
Scenario:
Libs scrape over the line but Howard loses Bennelong. (Onyer Max)
All hail PM Pete! In only 1 more sleep.
If that don’t put the frighteners on the indians, I don’t know what will.
Cassidy repeats Howard’s new slogan that “Country is heading in right direction, so don’t change government”. Gary Morgan will be puffed up that Team Howard has borrowed his basis for claiming huge “soft” vote for Labor in Morgan Poll.
LEFTY, Maybe Cassidy was referring to Morgan? But said Newspoll?????????
The dream scenario is Howard winning Bennelong and Costello losing Higgins.
31 hours till the polls close along the Eastern seaboard.
Galaxy poll: bringing market research services to Channnel 31 viewers, nationally.
For f***’s sake, what did Cassidy say? (Not what you think he meant…)
Gerr, Ive heard other rumours that Newspoll is 54.
But yes, I suppose, lets wait for confirmation.
I am sure Cassidy said Newspoll was 60:40, LOL
nostrils
dont you mean “when the boat comes in”
ps great TV show with wonderful ditty “when the boot coms inn”
for gerr where did you hear that 54 percent.
Damn it, I was trying to read pollbludger comments at the same time so wasn’t paying 100% attention. I thought he was just talking about the poll average he’d done this morning.
Anyone got Cassidy’s phone number?
Ron Brown,
WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THIS?!?!
Has Gary Morgan got anything to say?!?!?!
Ashley,
I couldn’t tell whether Cassidy’s 54.4 % was the Insiders program’s running composite or tomorrow’s Newspoll.
He said somehting like
there are big poll discrepancies with galaxy and morgan with Newspoll due out tomorrow the last poll and that shows Lab 54.4′
Thats the gist of what he said.
Now what he MEANT could be something else entirely.
That;s ALL I know. Did anyone TAPE IT?
tdt @ 347
Nice data. The thing I notice out of that is that ACN seem to overestimate the vote for the incumbent government by around 2.5% pretty consistently. Would be good to see if that trend goes back before 96. It would make some sort of sense to see an incumbency bias in polling close to an election even when they are about to cop a hiding like in 96.
They seem to get the opposition primary right to well inside the MOE though.
I’ll just cross my fingers that tomorrow night we’ll see ACN has again overestimated the government by 2.5% and got the challenger within a % of correct. Vive la Annihilation!
Those Morgan polls also always said that everyone thought that the ALP was going to win.
Maybe that’s why they thought the country was going in the right direction.
The question is also ridiculously biased.
“Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”
Generally the right direction or seriously in the wrong direction! Sound symetric to any one?
Hey guys I am cleaning out the study and came across a letter to me from:
Kevin Rudd MP
Leader of the opposition
Think it might be worth some money 1 day as you will never see that name and title printed together. What do you think?
OTOH, check this. http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/23/2099148.htm
Suggests Newspoll is close (or maybe just in margies)
Interesting Scenario:
NSW 3.9% swing (52/48 2PP to ALP)
SA 6.4% swing (52/48 2PP to ALP)
QLD 9.1% swing (52/48 2PP to ALP)
WA 2.0% swing TO LNP (57.4/42.6 to LNP)
Vic no swing (51/49 to LNP)
Tas no swing (54.2/45.8 to ALP)
ACT no swing (61.5/48.5 to ALP)
NT no swing (52.1/47.9 to ALP)
Outcome 3.3% 50.6 2PP - 77 ALP, 71 LNP, 2 IND
Bottom line: Its all about QLD, NSW and SA
CLdeF 461 - Also, in Australia, we were f…ed over by the Bank of England which controlled our export prices. This made the effects of the Depression in Australia worse than they needed to be.
Of course, I just wrote the essay above to take my mind of things such as rumours of Newspolls showing the mythical narrowing, as elusive, I still believe, as the Medusa (aka Helen Coonan). But Swing Lowe @ 409 talk good sense.
you people make me laugh… seriously.
Yeah he did say something about poll average, but he was SO convoluted that What he said sounded like tomorrow Newspoll is 54.4 but he could have meant anything. He’s on crack I think.
Nuff said.
perhaps he said “new poll”. I’ll have to wait another 110minutes for the midday news in WA.
He said the poll average he’d done this morning showed Labor on 54.4 (or was it 54.5). If he also said that Newspoll was showing 54.4 then I missed it (sorry).
Howard’s spending his last campaigning day in Leichhardt, which is on 8.8%. In other words, they’ve drawn a line under 8.8%. Everything under that, presumably, is gone. This equates to 90+ to Labor.
I say again though: If Newspoll was very close, we’d be getting figures today.
My guess: its 54-46, but closer in marginals (allowing the spin)
Well, that was moronic… Guess we’re going to have to wait for Agenda at 4:15 to find out what’s going on…
what about those in SA - they get it in 15 mins
Dear Labor friends. Take a deep breath, Take another one. Good. Now relax that in the knowledge that Howard will loose big & as well loose to Maxine, most of his cabinet & even the respect of the Liberal party.
It wont happen over night, BUT it will happen…probably Saturday night !!
Why would Newspoll publish a 54.4 result? Wouldn’t they just round it to 54 like usual?
I seriously don’t think it’s going to be higher than 53 as they’ve indicating a tightening will be shown.
True - who is in SA? I know ShowsOn is there, but I’m not sure if he’s around…
Come on, Cassidy is still one of the good guys. He has a media role to play and is also playing the ‘keeping a lid on it’ role.
Looks like we’ll have to wait for Lateline.
Not really Mad Professor… he was also in Moreton earlier on (2.2% I think).
I did my own polling
I’ve come across many friends, friends’ relative who say they will vote for Rudd this time. Those people have no interest in politics at all, I can assure you.
Reason? Howard has been there for too long. It’s time for others…
A fair go for all? I guess. The mood for change is so great.
If Howard’s ever sorry / apology for anything at all. It must be that he did not step down at the right time.
David Speers (Soggy Biscuit Boy One) on Sky has predicted an ALP
win with a 5 seat majority. Any ideas on how a 5 seat majority can
be had in a 150 seat chamber?
As posted above, O’Shanessy is saying Newspoll shows it will be very close. But I think that’s on the basis of marginal seat polling:
——–
Martin O’Shanessy says that, based on a poll to be published tomorrow, the result is certain to be a cliffhanger.
“I think we might find it very very close in those key marginal seats that we have to see and there may be a lot of recounts and protests around the edges,” he said.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/23/2099148.htm
A polls analyst from Newspoll is expecting tomorrow’s federal election to be an extremely close contest and says it could be a week before a definitive result emerges.
Martin O’Shanessy says that, based on a poll to be published tomorrow, the result is certain to be a cliffhanger.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/23/2099148.htm
Sorry maybe its me….maybe it was that crack I had earlier.
Flaneur @ 499
You’d need an odd number of independents . . . or a number of odd independents
Flaneur,
That would come about from a 76-71-3 result. Which is odd, because I only expect there to be 2 independents in the next Parliament.
According to Antony Green’s calculator the Coalition need 49.5 to form a majority.
Labor need 51.5, anything in between would be a hung parliament. So the lower end of the MOE from the Galaxy poll would need to be achieved for the Govt to retain office. If Galaxy turns out to be the best of the final polls for the Coalition this would seem highly improbable.
Looks like Newspoll is going to be 53-47 national, but line-ball on a marginal seat analysis.
Actually, yes LTEP.
IMHO It’s probably 53 in newspoll, with marginals down around 51.5.
We all know newspoll: how to explain the non-leak? totally out of character.
My guess: It aint that good overall for Rodent (ie better for ALP than galaxy) , but can still be spun in the marginals. hence the spin with no details.
Talking about cliff hangers in the marginals is a load of sh*t - he can say it look close in the marginals but to be predicting recounts on the basis of the sample sizes we have been seeing is clearly just this guy talking out his a*se
CLoF @ 461
Don’t forget that back then the average mortgage lasted for three years. When incomes started dropping the default rates skyrocketed ensuring a glut of houses in a market that couldn’t afford to buy them. This led to mass bankruptcies and a hell of a lot of bad debt on bank books.
From the Daily Telegraph here in Sydney (excuse the suburb and street references, they are part of the quote)
“Signs Everywhere?”
“An omen? One commuter gleefully reports a large election poster of a smiling John Howard on the grass verge at the Cheltenham M2 entrance had blown over on Wednesday night and was lying forlornly in the rain yesterday morning.”
How they measure majorities? Is it how many more than half of the chamber you have? (ie, 80 seats = 5 seats more than 75 = 5 seat majority)…
Or
Is it measured by how many seats more than all of the other parties you have (eg. 80 ALP seats = 70 seats to all the others = 10 seat majority???)
Which is it?
Option B, ND
I don’t usualy get so aggressive on this forum, but really… how can he predict that some results won’t be known for any period of time on the basis of polling with such small per seat sample sizes. it’s just rubbish