Roy Morgan has released a phone survey of 1670 voters including 1025 in hand-picked Coalition marginals. It shows Labor with an overall lead of 54.5-45.5 on two-party preferred, or 46.5 per cent to 40 per cent on the primary vote. The picture is somewhat better for the Coalition in the marginals, where the swing to Labor is 5.2 per cent compared with 7.2 per cent overall. Morgan aren’t done yet: the accompanying release tells us “the final Morgan Poll will be conducted tonight and released on election morning”.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
1,119 Comments
Friday night polls … not that I have ever been polled, but I’m normally not at home on a Friday night. Wouldn’t this be the case for a lot of Australian working families, sorry, people?
The 54.5-45.5 TPP sounds realistic nationwide, but to me perhaps a little optimistic for Coalition marginal seats. Mind you with this week on the campaign being a bad one for the Coalition, I wouldn’t be surprised if there has been a further swing to Labor in the Coalition marginals.
Anyway after the last couple of weeks I’d like to revise my election predictions.
I’ll be slightly more optimistic than I was a few weeks ago and say TPP of 54-46 in Labor’s favour, primary support of 46% for Labor and 42% for the Coalition and a seat count of 83 for Labor, 65 for Coalition and 2 Independents.
The 23 seats that Labor will win off the Coalition are:
NSW (7) = Bennelong (by a very narrow margin), Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Lindsay, Macquarie – held by a Liberal MP although it is a Labor seat on paper (or Parramatta – which is on paper a Liberal seat), Page, Robertson
Vic (3) = Corangamite, Deakin, La Trobe
Qld (6) = Blair, Bonner, Bowman, Herbert, Moreton, Petrie
WA (1) = Hasluck
SA (3) = Kingston, Makin, Wakefield,
Tas (2) = Bass, Braddon
NT (1) = Solomon
Ooops … I’ve misread the poll – 54.5-45.5 TPP is nationwide in the Morgan poll.That sounds like quite a sensible TPP for a Morgan poll which in the past has overstated Labor’s TPP. It’s interesting is now being the most favourable pre-election poll for Labor!
Ooops … I’ve misread the poll – 54.5-45.5 TPP is nationwide in the Morgan poll.That sounds like quite a sensible TPP for a Morgan poll which in the past has overstated Labor’s TPP. It’s interesting that ACN (which overstated the Coalition’s TPP just before the 2004 election) rather than Morgan is now the most favourable pre-election poll for Labor!
Morning Kiwipundit,
INteresting point, Morgan does tend to overstate the ALP position, sometimes by up to 2%.
This Morgan number today (54.5 minus 2 = 52.5) supports the Galaxy number more than the AC neilson number.
When was the last time AC Neislon threw in an outlier? sheesh!!!
That swing distribution beautiful. Here’s hoping that the marginals are close but get over the line, saving the big swings for further up the pendulum.
Mr. Squiggle, it’s the face-to-face that’s been accused of having a Labor bias. The ph poll is okay generally.
Morning All,
So, in a nutshell what explains the discrepency between the two polls?
Morning.
It’s the narrowing of course.
Hi Lord D,
So my only comfort is that Morgan shows the L-NP have picked 1.5-2% in just one week?
would this poll support Neilson or Galaxy?
Actuallu, just looked more closely at the Morgan primary for the L-NP
They report it as 40.5 (4)… Morgan has given the National party (4) only 3 times since the last election
Huh?
headline – “I’ve never lied to you, says Howard”
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22805707-5012863,00.html
Don’t know what he was thinking when he said that
Galaxy appear to have shot themselves in the foot. For such a young and brash polling organisation I wonder whether they will be able to survive after the election. Even if Morgan is splitting the difference between AC Nielsen and Galaxy and has it right which I would say they do. I suggest Galaxy will come off as grossly getting it wrong whereas ACN will just be seen as picking it on the higher side of the result and forgiven because they have been largely on track for the last year or so.
The Oz editorial today says both Galaxy and Newspoll (still polling) show the government is “coming home strongly”. Hope it’s a landslide but my original forecast still stands: two seats either way.
Hey has there been a 48/52 Newspoll, it must be a misprint on the Today show newsbar
David Briggs from Galaxy on 702 ABC radio at approx. 6:40am talking about “THE NARROWING” this morning. One thing he said was that whilst a lot of people said they would like to vote for Rudd they think John Howard has been doing such a good job that they will vote for him again. He then concluded by having a bet each way and declaring that the ALP will probably win with about 17 or 18 seats.
No lies ey?
http://www.alp.org.au/features/lies.php
I doubt that the Morgan poll’s overall figure of 54.5 has any validity. The sample of 1670 voters included 1025 in “hand picked Coalition marginals”. I would dispute therefore that the sample is an accurate representation of the whole population.
Also worth noting is that if the swing in the coalition marginals is 5.2% and the overall swing is 7.2% then the swing in the remaining seats must be 10.4%.
Ah! The “honest John” defence! I wonder if AWB, Iraq, David Hicks etc constituted “non-core” lies?
David Briggs of galaxy just on Sky News says he is “confident with these numbers”
We’ll see…
Well nothing new here – ANOTHER poll saying a victory for Labor.
One thing about polls and the Nationals, who seem understated constantly.
Everyone keeps saying that this doesn’t matter because the Coalition sample is right overall. Do we know this?
BR @ 20,
Yes.
Although if the swing in marginals is as low (?) as 5.2%, we won’t be sure of the result early in the night.
Unicorn,
They might have weighted the overall average for the sample by electorate. So the swing outside the marginals might be a bit lower than that.
AnthonyL @ 12,
We’re so close to the big day that I’ll reserve judgment on Galaxy – after all, if Labor gets less than (say) 80 seats, Galaxy will be geniuses.
They’re certainly a bit “out there” – I’d have to agree with you on that.
Remember 52% in Qld is a gain of 11 seats
mccabe gave the week to labor!
though she did say that galaxy is correct cos she works closely with briggs????
wonder if lindsaygate will run hot in the news today
Dyno,
True, they may have,
Thanks
Even now he can’t help himself. See post below in OzElection2007
Earlier, at the Riverlink shopping centre in Ipswich, in the electorate of Blair, Mr Howard got a heroes welcome – from a five year old.
“He’s a hero!” cried Benjamin Choat before the PM gave him a giant hug.
“I love John Howard,” called Ben’s sister Charlotte, 10, before the PM gave her the same treatment.
Ben and Charlotte’s father, Sean said he’d definitely be voting for the Coalition, citing economic stability as his No. 1 reason.
Now being a compulsive googler I could not resist slapping the name Sean Choat into the spider web and seeing what flew out the other end:
http://elections.nationalforum.com.au/c … 02987.html
http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/sta … date3.html
Sorry, URL truncated. Anyway, turns out Sean is a Liberal Party employee!!
davidk- links dont work
David K – why am I not surprised!
Please, for the love of God, let this all end.
I don’t like these rumours of a bad Newspoll.
Despite yesterday I still don’t feel very confident at all. I’m sticking to my 51.7/48.3 2PP prediction.
Hopefully that turns out to be enough to get the ALP over the line.
Coast poll upset is on the cards
12:00a.m. 23 November 2007
A random poll taken this week shows Labor could come close to claiming a safe Sunshine Coast Liberal seat tomorrow.
The Daily poll, conducted in Fisher over three days, showed Labor’s Darrell Main with 41.5% of the two-party preferred vote (???). The sitting member, Liberal Peter Slipper, had 43.5%.
Fifteen percent of voters were undecided.
Mr Slipper won the seat with a margin of 11% in 2004.
In 2004 the final four poll average was almost exactly spot on.
So far the final average Galaxy, ACN and Morgan has Labor at 54.5. If Newspoll has Labor at 52 then the final 4 average at a shade under 54. If Newspoll has Labor at 53 then the final 4 average is a shade over 54.
54 it will be. That’s 90 seats or so.
But as I have said repeatedly, worst case 52 still delivers a comfortable Labor victory. The only time it ever “goes down to the wire”, “is too close to call” etc is when one party is on 50 point something and the other is on 49 point something.
Dolly’s on RN Breakfast. Says he was going round the pubs in his electorate last night. Now Adeleaide beer is errr… questionable at the best of times but that accent would have curdled it quick smart.
I am quietly confident that it will be around 56/57 – 44/43. Peter Hartcher’s comments in today’s SMH, where ACNielsen validated its polling by running a parallel poll (albeit an online poll) leads me to this conclusion.
Enjoy yourselves, as I will tomorrow night.
Fran Kelly is a pathetic joke apologist for the tories. She is sickening and should be dismissed.
#34 Spiros: agree, looks like 85+ to me also
#35 Albert Ross: I hope you don’t include Coopers in that!
Is it just me? I count myself to be a tolerant person who would hear out other peoples opinions even if they differ from my political point of view.
But these days especially the last fortnight I just switch off all together when I hear Howard & Costello on audio. Its painful.
Are other Australians feeling that too? Is its a reflection on how most of us feel?
I guess the only thing I only want to hear from Howard is a concession speech & the loss of his seat!
After the leaflet fiasco, I predict 89 seats to Labor.
A big call but I’ll stick my neck out.
I go on the record again. Labor to take it 90 -105 !
Is anyone else (ALP voters that is) getting a little jumpy? You have to admit the outcome has gone from a sure thing to having to justify why a certain poll is “wrong”. I have a feeling this is going to be a lot closer than most people think.
Another rock solid poll, everything points to the win, I predict it will actually be higher on 57-43 during the leaflet fallout amongst other things.
Kevin Rudd – Prime Minister, just one more sleep and that will be a reality.
42 mr awesome Galaxy does push polling, they asked a series of questions favourable to the government first. According to people on this site who were polled. Then the 4th question is who you will vote for.
Also the Lindsaygate affair may not show up in recent polls.
Aussieguru01 @ 39, like you I think a lot of the electorate is sick and tired of the campaign and the Libs in particular, there is a limit to how many trashy adds people will tolerate before they switch off. So the strategy of a long campaign that would wear Labor down has backfired and they have worn the electorate down instead.
I am confident that ACN has it right. It has been 55/45 all year. Then we have had a Rate rise, Abbott’s IR gaffe, Campaign launches and now the pamphlet fiasco. They have to be worth a couple of percent.
Long live King Kev.
All hail the king…
Thanks C the C you make sense.
Chris B, why would Galaxy (& ACN for that matter) be happy to produce a poll which they thought was an inaccurate representation of true voting intentions?
When it’s your last poll for the campaign, surely you want to make sure you get it right. You reputation for the next 3 years hangs on it – that’s been the reason for Morgan’s demise in the mainstream press.
Stop panicking folks. Given the MOE for each of ACN, Galaxy, Morgan and Newspoll they can all be right (within their range). However, the three higher polls lowest levels based on MOE are higher than Galaxy’s mid point. This indicates the Galaxy is likely to go to the higher end of it’s MOE. Hence the figure of 54:46 is much more statistically accurate than any other. A win of about 30 seats for the ALP.
No one has to assume any polls are wrong or biased. But since they each ask a sample of people they can only be right within a certain range. The average of the polls is more likely to predict the outcome than any single poll.
(Exlude Morgan F2F and Nielsen online fron the average. They are not comparable to the four major polls.)
Well, Murdoch Tabloid TV Skynews website has a whole new way of interpreting polls:
They say in their introductory paragraph reporting the Galaxy 52-48 to Labor and the ACN 57-43 to Labor that these two polls are showing “varying indications of who will win”. Gobsmackingly dishonest journalism, even by Skynews low standards.
Whoever wrote that should contact the incumbent and Lib candidate in Lindsay and get a job writing fake pamphlets.
Heres a good read
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/100-reasons-rudd-is-in-like-flynn/2007/11/22/1195753249787.html
Hi everyone – it’s the inverse narrowing!
Thanks Aussieguru01 @ 53, interesting read. I like the “ahead in 100 consecutive polls”
If Galaxy has engaged in push polling then that is a disgrace. That is blatant bias which has most likely been done to script a narrative about Howard coming back and trying to make it acceptable again to vote Liberal. Overall, I think for everyone who changes their vote one way because of this poll there will be another who changes it the other way.
Jumpy about the ALP’s prospects tomorrow ??? …
No.
Books should be written about the Howard government’s re-election campaign. I can even suggest a few titles … how about “Failure to Launch” or maybe even “Campaigning for Dummies – 101 things you should NEVER do”.
The Libs have spent most of this year trying to drive around a corner by staring straight at the big gum tree (and annihilation) at the bend.
Time’s up people.
Give me my little pencil, point me to the cardboard box polling station, I’m ready to cast off the dead skunk that has been hanging around the neck of this nation for 11 years.
ratcatcher Says: “Jumpy about the ALP’s prospects tomorrow ??? …”
Not for a second ratcatcher!
Gary Morgan is at it again.
“ALP Set To Win Close Election” but the headline is 54.5/46.5??
What’s close about this (Antony’s calc says 54.5% gives 91 to Labor)?
Labor set to win an extra 31 seats and it’s close? Please, Gary.
Also the hard to reconcile ““John Howard should retain Bennelong and Malcolm Turnbull Wentworth”.
Yet there were only “843 electors in the 22 L-NP marginal seats” is his marginal sample.
Does this mean he polled 38 people in each of the 22 electorates and then comes to the outrageous conclusion that JH and MT are safe?
Or does it mean he polled more people in Bennelong and Wentworth – thereby polling only a handful in the other 20 seats? Be nice to know if this was done.
Or does it mean Gary Morgan took all of the 22 seats, looked at the overall swing then concluded that Bennelong and Wentworth were safe for the Libs? This can’t be true because both those seats are held by less than the 5.2% swing stated.
Or does he just make it up.
Gary Morgan habitually comments on his own polling to make it reflect current issues and makes conclusions not supported by the data. Highly dubious considering the margin of error.
But I guess he owns it.
I think the problem is one of perception. Even if 52-48 is right, that’s GREAT for Labor supporters. But we’ve become used to 55-45 and so 52-48 doesn’t feel so good.
There has been a narrowing since the campaign started, but only enough to reduce the annihilation to a solid trouncing. Breathe deep and take the election into your own hands: convince a neighbour!!!
Am I right in assuming that the safest way to go is to ask people where they would direct their preferences?
If so, the ACN should really be 56-44 which makes a 53 or 54 in it’s MoE. I think around 54 probably seems more reasonable than 57.
A Coalition victory at this stage would be unbearable and would leave us all in the dark for the 2010/2011 election as the polls would not be able to be believed again.
Another good read –
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/pm-needs-a-miracle/2007/11/22/1195753249705.html
John Hewson in the AFR is predicting a Labor margin of 3-7 seats ie 78-82 seats.
Kevin Rudd is writing off the unions in the Australian this morning – “not my concern if they live or die”.
Looks like we are going to get Howardism without Howard or perhaps a more appropriate slogan – “After Howard, Howard”
Is it too late for Howard to feign a health scare and step down today, thus remaining undefeated ?
Adjusting for the Morgan bias this poll is 52-48.
Adjusting for the Galaxy bias their poll is 54-46.
Morgan then supports Galaxy
Galaxy then supports ACN.
All support Labor.
I think the Liberals shouldn’t appoint Costello as leader. They should go for an overhaul and move straight to Turnbull and encourage as many ex ministers to go as quickly as possible.
“63
Edward StJohn Says:
November 23rd, 2007 at 8:38 am
John Hewson in the AFR is predicting a Labor margin of 3-7 seats ie 78-82 seats.
Kevin Rudd is writing off the unions in the Australian this morning – “not my concern if they live or die”.
Looks like we are going to get Howardism without Howard or perhaps a more appropriate slogan – “After Howard, Howard””
Ah, Eddie’s first sh!t of the day, but not his last, I fear.
After Howard, Rudd.
Not Howard. Rudd.
Live with it. And feel the pain that we’ve felt through 11 years of vileness, pettiness and vindictiveness.
$34 Billion Tax Cuts. If there is one fault of both parties in this campaign it would be the handout of $30-$34 Billion in tax cuts over 5 years. Personally, a pay rise of some $10-$20 a week for the average Australian is hardly worth the benefit that could be had if this money was equally across every electorate in Australia for the purposes of infastructure including roads, hospitals, schools and community facilities. (Thats $226 MILLION DOLLARS per electorate). Not to mention the added inflationary pressure these personal tax cuts will have on the economy at a time when inflation is being fueled by higher prices for groceries, fuel, rent and wages. In the past I like many other people have always negotiated salary with employers on the basis of ‘take home pay’ nett of tax therefore this tax cut is not the carrot politicians belive it to be. Communities should be the ones to receive the greater benefit of this massive surplus.
Ha John Hunt that’s some very creative work you’ve got going there.
I’m not sure ESJ, they may want to stick with Costello through Rudd’s honeymoon. You don’t agree with Greg Sheridan? He thinks they should go for Tony Abbot.
Just back from voting at Oz house in London. Had to queue for over an hour and there were at least 8 ALP how-to-vote cards taken for every Lib one – it’s on for KEV07!
The Liberals would need a quick clean-out LTEP of ministers who are seen as past it, people like Downer for example. They would want to maintain some who are not so shopworn – say Julie Bishop or Helen Coonan for example.
By the way, you Laborites shouldn’t be happy with 52% of the 2pp.
52% tpp equates to a uniform swing of 4.7 percent, which would yield Labor 15 seats, resulting in a hung parliament. Considering that they would probably not win either Bennelong on Wentworth, and that they would also lose a seat or two in WA, coupled with the fact that the swing in the Coalition marginals is lower than nationwide, the net result would be another Howard Government with a reduced majority.
Slowly but surely the tortoise crawls up to the hare…….
I think they should go for a labotamy!
I predict a landslide of historic proportions with Labor TTP of around 55%. This will get them more than 90 seats, but being a Geelong supporter I will stick with my earlier predictions of 89. This will be enough to keep Kevin as PM for at least 2 terms- enough to undo much of the damage done by the rat brigade over the past 11 years.
I think AC Nielsen is wrong – its really 60-40, all over the leafy north shore of sydney and Melbourne equivalents accountants, lawyers and doctors are rising up (as predicted by that seer Possum) and calling for a revolution – Kevin07, the national orgasm has begun.
At least Edward, to his credit, believes Labor will win, instead of trying to interpret the latest polls as some type of narrowing resulting in a close coalition win.
Gusface (26) said:-
>mccabe gave the week to labor!
though she did say that galaxy is correct cos she works closely with briggs????>
Yeah – my initial reaction was “well, she would say that, wouldn’t she?” Given she works for the paper that commissions Galaxy polls…… She also gave a spiel saying that many people, when they enter the booth, will think about how wll they’ve done under the Govt and vote accordingly.
Interestingly, Mark Reilly seemed to be trying to say that the Neilsen poll was closer to both sides’ private polling, but he was interrupted by David Koch (whose “I’m so sick of the election” mantra is wearing pretty thin). Anybody hear that, or was it my imagination?
Thats it Liberal losers keep telling your selves ‘Its going to be alright,Its going to be alright’
Asking people where their preferences will go is what produced the widely variable TPP figures in the final polls before the 2004 election. Thats why some of the pollsters have gone back to estimating them themselves this time around.
As far as the Galaxy Poll goes there are two things in my mind that tend to discount their findings on their latest poll. Firstly it is the first poll all year to show the two sides equal on primary vote and secondly it does not seemed to have moved the betting markets at all. Centrebet in fact has actually lengthened the Coalition’s price this morning. If in fact the result of the election was in some doubt you would not be seeing a price in excess of $4.00 for one of the contenders. I would be taking the Galaxy Poll with a grain of salt and looking at this Morgan and the latest ACN poll to draw my conclusions.
I thought 52.5% and 82 seats for Labor for about a week. Morgan does overstate Labor strength so knocking 2% off their number is reasonable.
AC Neilsen is crazy. Labor has neve achieved a vote like that. It is very brave indeed to predict a labor vote higher that 1972 or 1983 so 52.5% is probably as good as it gets.
rumour has it Newspol is 54-46 ALP
ESJ
I think most of Howard’s Minister’s are mostly past it. I don’t know whether Coonan would be hard-hitting enough in Opposition. They may want to choose some of their harder hitting members/senators who will really go for it. I see Senator Corey Bernardi being on their front bench within a few years. Senator McGauran perhaps would be able to provoke slips in the ALP front bench. I agree on Julie Bishop though, I think she’ll be fine.
Nostradamus if you want a proper response…
The truth is at 52% the election could go either way. Now I don’t agree with people here who say Labor can’t lose on 52% because it’s never happened before… but, on 52% if the swing is less in certain marginals then it will be more in other seats. The question is whether this additional swing would occur in seats that would fall to the ALP.
Yes, the ALP could lose 2 seats in WA, but they could gain 1 in NT, which would hardly effect the national 2PP at all. At 52% I’d say it’s too close to call either way.
Yeah, I’d much rather have the reconstituted possum urine that is a Swan Lager or a XXXX than a nice pint of Coopers…
Oh, please, please install Tony Abbott as leader of the Libs. Labor would be in power for as long as Abbott was their leader.
Averaging the primaries for the three polls produced thus far produces 45.5/41 on the primaries. If we assume 7.5 for Greens (can’t find primaries for these, but this about the level of the last election) and a 75%/40% preference flow Greens/Others, we get a TPP of about 53.5/46.5.
This is a swing of just over 6%, and about 82-85 seats to Labor. I like the 53.5% figure because it is in line with previous highest TPPs recorded in elections (just pips Hawke’s, I think).
LTEP,
In 1974 Nixon advised Ford to fire the entire Cabinet except Henry Kissinger, the Liberals will need to be seen to make a clean break from the Howard era to get re-elected if they lose tomorrow.
Movement to Labor in QLD:
PETRIE
ALP 1.80
LIBS 1.90
RYAN
LIBS 1.50
ALP 2.30
“77
Aussieguru01 Says:
November 23rd, 2007 at 8:51 am
Thats it Liberal losers keep telling your selves ‘Its going to be alright,Its going to be alright’”
Yes, it’s an interesting development.
1. Spend 12 months saying Labor can’t win, right up to the last minute.
2. At the last minute, backpedal furiously and say that Rudd is just as right-wing as Johnny.
Shanahan has written the blueprint in today’s Oz. Watch his minions fall into line.
Yet you can bet your bottom dollar that by the time of the next election, they’ll be back to banging on about the evils of Ruddite socialism…
FYI, Centrebet has blown out again over night:
1. LABOR 1.20 (in from $1.26)
2. COALITION 4.60 (out from $4.35)
Gary Bruce,
I may be a jinx though, I thought PJK would win in 1996 too!
anyone see gillard and abbott on nine tis morning
gillard had the line of the election so far
“dont worry tony ,you can stay on in parliament -as the fitness instructor!”
Albert Ross @ 35 – them’s fighting words.
How can a Greens supporter not like real ale ie Coopers ? (as opposed to that gassy chemical rubbish you people on the eastern seaboard drink).
The question you really need to ask yourself is this, given the polls all year and the election campaign performances , do you really believe Labor’s primary vote stands at 42.5%? My belief is that it is more like 46%.
I think it’ll be astounding if the betting markets don’t move to the Coalition during the day. The pay-off really is too good to resist if you believe Galaxy is the most accurate pollster (which a lot of people do believe).
I think the betting markets are really mostly worthless. It just tells us who people think will win. I also don’t believe the individual betting markets are really anything swish either. It’s just people taking a stab in the dark and hoping they get more than they would by betting on the national figure (believing the ALP is a lock-on).
I dont know Gary the people I associate with are not swinging voters so hard to say what the real world thinks or the mythical index patient believes.
89 Edward StJohn – I think you’ll get it right this time Edward.
hey guys,
this has probably been covered before, but I can’t find any booth-by-booth results from last election.
I would LOVE to know the numbers and %s for booths in what is now Eden-Monaro, can anyone point me in the right direction?
The Liberals could be outsourced – a bunch of 457 visas and some AWAs get them signed on for the next 5 years.
Re: the galaxy poll.
The primary vote is particularly interesting. The Coalition on 42.5 is not unreasonable, since their election campaign average is around 41.
It’s the Labor primary which is weird… 42.5. That’s a significant drop, and one which isn’t backed up by the ACN or Morgan (48 and 46.5).
I’m hanging out to see the ALP primary vote in the Newspoll. If it’s 44 or over then you’d have to say that Galaxy have screwed up on the Labor primary. Galaxy is obviously looking the most likely to be wrong, since the ACN and Morgan are in agreement with all the other ALP primary results up to this point.
Predictions on Newspoll ALP primary? I think we’ll see something in the range 44-46.
I think newspoll 53-47 would be consistent with a win but not quite a Hawke 83.
gusface Says:”
gillard had the line of the election so far
“dont worry tony ,you can stay on in parliament -as the fitness instructor!”
”
Gold LOL! Did Abbott respond with “f*ck you, you a**-hole b*tch, I’ll go you with a knife!”
verbal @ 96 :
go to the Aust Electoral Commisiion Website. Its all there. Try this :
http://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/HouseDivisionPollingPlaces-12246-117.htm
http://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/HouseDivisionPollingPlaces-12246-117.htm there you go dude
hmm, too slow….
Yes ESJ, I think we’ll get a 53-47 or 54-46 from Newspoll. That’s a convincing win, but we might only see Labor ahead by 10 seats in the end.
Ashley, the overriding question on primaries is whether you really believe this election is so polarising that the minor party vote is so tiny.
Personally, I’m an ex-minor party voter who will probably vote 1 Labor this time… but I’m not sure that’s wipe-spread. In any case, a Labor primary of 42.5 would be higher than any result they’ve achieved since 1993.
LTEP, I officially dub thee:
Eeyore!!!
http://images.easyart.com/i/prints/rw/lg/7/1/Mini-Posters-Winnie-the-pooh—Eeyore-71119.jpg
As far as the the Galaxy poll is concerned, the simple fact is that whilst the Coalition primary vote of 42.5 is in line with what most polls have been saying all campaign (averaging at about 41/42), the labor vote is clearly on the low side, probably explained by the high primary for the greens/others.
LTEP, I think if Galaxy is correct (big if) then most of the missing ALP primary will be with the Greens, and it will flow straight back to Labor on preferences. Can’t see any Coalition marginals getting over the line on primaries.
In relation to the galaxy poll how many people were polled?
In relation to the questions what were the questions and how were they framed, for example the Telegraph reports:
However, voters told Galaxy pollsters they expected a Labor election victory on Saturday – 62 per cent to 25 per cent for the Coalition.
But they were not sure either side deserved to win.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22806538-5001021,00.html
They were not sure either side deserved to win? sounds like push polling?
Yes Ashley and I think Rudd will govern very conservatively in that case – he will have a small margin, small number of seats and will not want to upset anybody in caucus – and hope the Liberals implode with a view to a big win in 2010.
Or he may go for the Whitlam option (or his ministry might) God has given us the papacy we should enjoy it sort of school of thought. On reflection through the campaign I doubt the later will happen and obviously the elites have come to the same view which is why he will win.
You realise the only difference between putting a minor party first and a major party second in most lower house seats is who gets the electoral funding flowing from your first preference vote?
So if for no other reason, if you are sympathetic to a minor party it’s worthwhile thinking about putting them first and then preferencing the major party of your choice in order to improve funding to the minor party.
93- You might consider beting markets worthless but I would take them anyday over your collection of “gut feelings” and obvious personal insecurities about the result. There is more than enough evidence to backup the accuracy of betting markets as a predictor especially at the pointy end of an election.
Worthless might be used to describe an argument that has been banging the same drum for six weeks without any eveidence to back it up apart from anectdotal personal stories and ” gut feelings”.
ESJ — dunno how conservative he will be in some areas. Don’t forget he has “the buck stops with me” line hanging over his head. He’s gotta know that that’s going to come back and bite him on the ass, so I think he’ll be doing some headkicking when it comes to health.
Patrick, I’m more than aware of all that and I will not decide my vote based on funding. I’m yet to decide on my Senate vote and may decide on the spot.
I am in Bennelong. My mum rang me just now excited. She said Howard had rung her and said you will get all these benefits etc listing them. I told her that it must be a recorded message. Campaigning is getting hectic.
Edward,
I doubt they’ll go the Whitlam route. Once in power the new government will like the feel of the place and want to stay as long as possible. They won’t want to upset too many people. I suspect we’re about to see the most conservative and careful Labor government in history.
Best way for Rudd to get Howard riled up: go and campaign in Bennelong with Maxine. However, it seems both leaders will be in QLD today.
Mccabe wa spushing her usual liberal BS this mroning, was waiting for her to give the week as a win for the coalition again…….but even she coudln’t…….althoigh she did poopoo the flyer scandal she did say that both sides use dirty tricks?????……
LTEP@93:
I couldn’t agree more. The betting market is just reflecting who it is people expect to win, not who they WANT to win.
According to the Galaxy Poll 62% of people believe that the ALP will win, but only 52% are going to vote for them. It’s 25%/48 2PP for the Coalition.
Throughout this campaign (and pre-campaign) when there has been a high expectancy that the ALP will win there has been a commensurate drop in the 2PP figure for the ALP. When it looks like the ALP is going to romp home people scratch their heads out in the marginals and wonder “why is that again given that it ain’t broken?”
I maintain that I don’t think the electorate is sold on either of the parties, and being the favourite this time might possibly be a net negative thing.
george
i think his sackcloth was chafing him as he squirmed very uncomfortably
bet abbott thought it though-then did penance for thinking it!
More info on the galaxy poll in the Courier mail:
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22806358-952,00.html
The Galaxy poll of 1,200 voters was taken on Tuesday and Wednesday for News Ltd – before the revelations of a bogus leaflet scandal that threatens to hand a key marginal Sydney seat to Labor.
The sample was 1200 and specifically done for News Limited, so what were the questions and how were they framed?
Wow, portlandbet is out to 1.67 for Howard in Bennelong, Centrebet on 1.65. That’s a big move (just over a week ago Howard was on around 1.45).
Paul K,
True, the best model is a Carr style NSW government. Do nothing controversial, spin furiously, paper over the cracks.
Sound like something we already know federally?
LTEP,
So, you might decide your Senate vote on the spot. Well, you’ve had me fooled in here for many dozens of posts that you were someone with rational and sensible basis for making decisions. This is written in sadness, not anger, that I will take your future posts with a ton of salt if, after all this discussion, you are a decide-in-the-booth voter.
A view from Tasmania – Dr Kevin Bonham’s opinion on Tas seats and Senate – some campaign comment.
http://tasmaniantimes.com/index.php?/weblog/article/it-aint-the-economy-stupid/
ESJ – hmm ‘the elites’? That old chestnut? No elitist thinking in the born-to-rule silver-spoon Libs then?
Did anyone else notice that the ACNielsen poll also mentioned that they repeated their Online Poll (with a totally different sample), and got the same result.
..b*gger, link doesn’t work … cut ‘n’ paste if you care.
Hemingway, I’m torn between the Democrats and the Greens but not yet fully decided. Leaning more to the Democrats. There’s a lot to consider.
Oh Dangerous I am sure they didnt get any variance with people like Dave from Albury answering the on-line questions.
How reliable is the online poll? Are respondents self-selected? If so, it doesn’t count for much.
Ashley, they say it’s possible to weight respondents to these polls… I’m not really sure about that but we must keep an open mind to new sampling methods.
More info on the Galaxy poll:
Support for the greens 8.5%
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22806119-661,00.html
The Galaxy poll showed Mr Rudd a clear leader as preferred prime minister, 51-43.
Mr Rudd easily out-campaigned the Prime Minister, according to the poll.
It showed 57 per cent agreed the Labor leader had been more impressive on the hustings, compared with just 27 per cent who rated Mr Howard the better performer.
Many Coalition supporters even gave the nod to Mr Rudd, with 27 per cent agreeing he was more impressive in campaigning.
Voters were more cynical about the parties themselves, with almost half those polled believing neither Labor nor the Coalition deserved to govern.
Half of those polled said they were better off than three years ago. Less than a third, or 29 per cent, thought they were worse off.
The Government has run its campaign on the basis of superior economic management.
After an extended period of economic growth, 55 per cent said they were not financially stressed. But Labor’s cost of living arguments may be resonating, with 44 per cent describing themselves as financially stressed or more stressed than they were three years ago.
Support for the Greens was 8.5 per cent while Family First came in with 2.5 per cent.
The Herald Sun/Galaxy phone survey of voter intentions was taken on Tuesday and Wednesday evenings and involved the views of 1186 voters.
More fabulous reporting from news.com.au… apparently “two out of three polls back Labor win”. Which I guess means a 52-48 Galaxy poll in favour of the ALP actually points to a Liberal win.
ACN Online poll isn’t self-selecting – people are sampled, selected and weighted in the same manner as phone polling.
The Senator believes anything less than 52.1% can be adjusted by traditional methods to ensure the right outcome.
No Patrick Bateman, it could just mean they’re saying it doesn’t clearly back either party to win.
…but not having the guts or intelligence to preference another party ahead of them or register their displeasure at compulsory preferential voting with a donkey vote…
Which is incorrect. It suggests a narrow ALP win.
That’s my point, it doesn’t “decide your vote”. Labor doesn’t care if they’re getting your first preference or your sixth preference, so long as the LibNatz are at least one behind them.
If you discount the polls and the betting markets, Labor is heading for a massive electoral defeat. I refuse to accept polls or betting odds at face value. Psephology is the new Voodoo Science. Astrology has never let me down. Except of course during my divorce, unemployment, drinking problem, smoking problem and depression. But I am on new medication now (combination of prozac and viagra) and I have never been better. I can see clearly now and Howard can never be beaten. Only fools deny reality.
We’ve got to be nice to news ltd now, considering that a good proportion of their newspapers are backing Rudd.
Check out http://smh.com.au
It’s full of Labor online ads today.
49 Samuel K Yes you are right, but I am quoting a number of people on this site. And it has happened twice. Also it has been mention that Galaxy has a connection to the Liberal Party. We will know the answer on Saturday.
OR (as has been pointed out many times) it might actually mean a big ALP win on seats, as the Newspoll and Galaxy polling in marginals has been showing the ALP also ahead 52-48. So, if the ALP win 52-48 in marginals and are 52-48 overall, they will also get 52-48 in a lot of other seats.
There is an acute logic deficiency being experienced by many people at the moment.
By all means tug on your rabbit’s feat and chant your incantations in the hope of your desired outcome, but please don’t attempt to bend the polling results to suit some contorted logic.
I don’t really care Patrick Bateman. I base my vote on who I believe deserves it. Over the past few years I’ve grown to doubt the Greens and I don’t think the Democrats are running a candidate in my seat.
I’m not just going to vote a particular way due to financial benefits to political parties.
From the SMH article about the AC Neilsen poll:
“A Galaxy Poll to be published in News Limited newspapers today shows the election to be a tight contest, with the two main parties tied on 42.5 per cent of the primary vote and Labor leading by 52 per cent to 48 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis.
But sources from both main parties believed that the Herald poll more accurately reflected what their internal polling had found.”
Just had a look the Galaxy poll primary figures which apparently show Family First on 2.5% after not registering anything in the previous Galaxy Polls, and the 2.5% seems to have come straight from the labor primary since the last poll!?
Pollsters and Anthony streaming on http://www.abc.net.au/brisbane
Just about to start
79 Webroar Liberals had never had polls like that before Malcolm Fraser in 1975. Doesn’t mean it can’t be done does it.
worth remembering that half this sample is in Lib marginals, dragging down Labor’s 2PP
John Stirton say min 20 seats to Labor.
One day to go!
Coalition surging back in the marginals:
——————————
On Saturday tee hee
It will be Coalition glee!!
Looking forward to getting up 7am Sat for live results!!
80
Bring Back CL’s blog Says:
November 23rd, 2007 at 8:54 am
rumour has it Newspol is 54-46 ALP
Who says? Or is this just another make a post then leave the blog beat-up a la yesterday?
Croatia 3 England losers.
tdt yes, last night there was someone who claimed to know the Newspoll results.
56/44 Qld, 54/46 NSW, 52/48 Vic, 55/45 SA and 48/52 WA with an overall 54/46.
I would take it with a grain of salt though.
We also had another person who leaked early that Galaxy would show ‘too close to call’ state that Newspoll would be 55/45.
WHAT!? Martin O’Shaunessy from Newspoll just said that he doesn’t think we will know the election result for about one week.
153 Australia football LOLOLOLOL
stick to the Aussie Rules!
O’Shannasy says cliffhanger – maybe – perhaps.
CEO of Newspoll reckons it will be a cliffhanger – Y-A-W-N
He says he is CERTAIN it will be a cliffhanger.
That’s the biggest fence sit of all time.
Martin O from Newspoll spruiking the Australian tomorrow
Ave it 07 – What was the score last time the aussies played england?? 3-1 wasn’t it?
That means he’s got 52-48
Hey Ave it 07 – Take a F#@& off pill
@ 101 & 102:
Thanks heaps guys, really really appreciate it!
Now to figure out which booths the electorate got from Farrer and lost to Gillmore!
As far as I can tell they got:
Adelong
Brungle
Batlow
Lacmalac
Jingellic
Rosewood
Tooma
Talbingo
Tumbarumba
Tumut
Tumut East
and lost:
Batehaven
Batemans Bay
Long Beach
Malua Bay
Mogo
Nelligen
Sunshine Bay
Sutton (Eden-Monaro)
Tomakin
if anyone knows for sure, much appreciated!
If Newspoll is saying that AC Nielsen is the odd man out?
He seemed to imply that the 2pp is higher than that, but that it is closer in marginal seats.
Aussieguru01, it’s not even 10am yet – don’t let these Lib dorks get to you so early – stay focussed
ESJ,
The problem is that ACN conducted 2 separate polls (one online and one traditional) with 2000 people sampled in the traditional and 1400 sampled online. Both point to the exact same result…
George Its only that retard that gets ’special mention’
161 – little friendly game – we like to give you developing nations encouragement
163 – you know you’re worried – you will be crying by Sat night lol
130 Ashley Yes, but it backs up the previous poll.
Labor now favourite in Petrie on Centrebet and Portlandbet. Still behind on Sportingbet…
LTEP: As for deciding between Green or Dems in the Senate, just remember the Dems have a split ticket. Even if you vote below the line, then there should be no issue. If you vote above the line, your initial transfer value might not be 100% but could be 50% (depends on who was eliminated before the transfer). The Greens don’t have a split ticket so the transfer value should be 100%.
I know other parties do split tickets, but I detest split tickets more than the voting above the line. At least below the line I have my say.
Ave it 07, why don’t you shove a hot poker up your arse and go f*ck yourself….
swe damn it, I didn’t follow my own advice Aussieguru01!
Ave it 07 – your just a ‘cyber fart’, piss off!
Growler @ 145
Thanks for the helpful quote, particularly about the internal polling from both parties. Graham Richardson, who has called the winner of every election for the past 30 years and has seen the Labor Party’s internal polls. Richo stated late Sunday that Labor will win 80 seats, and it’s likely that he would give the conservative minimum figure with a few more still in sight.
But as someone said earlier, the polls (MSM or internal), Betting markets and Possums’ (and others’) stats analysis don’t matter a whole lot to the hunchpeople.
174 – lol – Australia a civilised mature country………
10am there soon. 32 hours to Coalition win – alll you labor will have your handouts stopped lol – get back in the tent on the street
Martin O said “we won’t know the result for a week, there will be recounts”, meaning that he thinks a lot of seats will be closely fought. Doesn’t mean that the overall 2PP is close.
George…some digression please…William will whack us if we keep up this form…he might be asleep!
Ave it 07 don’t you have some flyers to deliver?
Ave it 07 – investing your precious time posting about election polling on the other side of the world. LOL.
In the world of polling Swing Lowe – someone is going to get hurt!
Apologies if this has already been covered here, getting harder + harder to roll with the times.
Jim Middleton said on 702 that tomorrow’s Oz/Newspoll would show some “tightening but Labor still in a position to win”.
Anyone got any more on this? Do we know the actual figures or do we just guess? It can only be 53-47, can’t it? Or 52.5-48.5? Any less and Libs would have 48 and be theoretically able to win, thus he wouldn’t have said that?
Or am I reading 2 much into this?
175 lol missed that – dont forget we british can disolve your government if we dont like it – we’ve done it before
180 – haha quite funny
nah, Ave it 07 loves the tit for tat! now back to listening to cassidy on the radio
Sorry, I meant to say 52.5/47.5 …
Betamax,
Rumour is that it’s going to be 54/46. However, that statement suggests a 53/47 result – 50/50 would be outside the MOE, but it would signify a “tightening”
I agree. Last newspoll was 54-46. Tightening but still in a position to win would suggest 53-47 or at worst 52.5-48.5.
Has to be 53/47 I would have thought. Which will be disappointing if a large amount of the polling was done yesterday, during the Lindsay saga.
Ha. I can’t subtract either.
53/47 to Coalition?
Thanks SL.
I wish he’d said where he got the info from — I’m guessing Jim would use reliable sources, even if he is a bit middle-of-the-road he always seems dependable
I don’t think Lindsay is going to swing the national vote too much. Might pull a percentage or two in certain seats though.
So in the Oz’s editorial, it says that the latest Newspolling (which was still going on last night) shows the coalition coming back strongly…
Anyone concerned?
Lose the election please@128:
Anything we Democrats can do to sweeten the deal?
Galaxy Primaries 42.5 (ALP) to 42.5(Lib)
Preference Split: 15% -> 9.5(ALP) to 5.5(Lib) ie. 63% toi Lab
Nielson 48 (ALP) to 40 (Lib)
Preference Split: 12% -> 9(ALP) to 3(Lib) ie 75% to Lab
Who is right?
169 – please do not use that word. You clearly have no idea just how offensive it can be.
Latest Lindsay campaign update all liberal booth workers will be wearing this on their tshirts.
I’m not a racist but…
I am a liberal.
My biggest fear in this election is how many seats Labor will lose so closely. For example they need a swing of 8% but they only 6.5%.
Spent a few hours handing out how-to-vote cards for the ALP in London and surprisingly the Lindsay-leaflet saga was mentioned quite a few times by the people i was talking to. For some it was that last nail in the coffin getting them down to Australia House, put up with long queues and vote. Nothing motivates quite so much as anger.
As you would expect, there were lots of positive energy for Labor and the Greens from the predominately young group of voters.
Greens were spruiking very hard on the fact that people can vote Green because their preferences were going directly to Labor.
And Morgan has a 60% split for preferences
The Newspoll rumours is like a game of Chinese Whispers. Hopefully, somebody leaks it properly soon before we all drown in a sea of disinformation.
Is that a joke Anthonyl? – Its almost believable !
This could be the first election since ‘96 where the preferred PM has not won the election.
Thats incorrect LTEP. Rudd been preferred every time – get your hand off it!
Lose The Eeyore Please – no it wont be.
For a Morgan Poll, 54.5/45.5 is not that great to be honest. Forgive me, I’ve become a tad bit pessimistic.
Rudd is preferred pm. Anyone saying the libs will win with 48% of the vote needs to get their hand off it. It will not happen.
Settle down Nervous Nellies. There’s nothing you can do to change anything now. The course is set.
My prediction is 53.4 2PP, 83 seats.
LTEP @ #144
I’m not normally one to turn an elector away from “my” party, but you don’t come across as a Greens voter to me. You’re way to pessimistic and negative. We Greens are full of hope and optimism for the future. And while we welcome all new members, I feel that from your postings over the last few months, and your mood today, you might be better off parking your vote with the Dems. They are in terminal decline anyway, and may suit your mindset better.
But if you ever decide to embrace hope and optimism, Bob’s waiting for your call….
DR
The size of the Labor win will be dependant on how the preferences flow.
Don’t panic:
(1) Possum says ALP 55-45 (based on in-depth analysis of poll trends), and see his comments on Galaxy’s methodology,
(2) The bookies have about 1.20 / 4.60. Do many bookies go broke?
(3) Shortest spread is ALP to win 53% to 54%
(4) Look where the leaders are campaigning: not in marginal seats but where the Libs hold 5 – 10 % – both of them.
Sit back, relax, enjoy.
Suncorp stadium here I come!
To the punters (Ashley and Swing Lowe, I’m particularly looking in your direction) have you got anything on this exact Labor seats market: https://www.portlandbet.com/index.php?cPath=3156&event_id=ALL&market_type_id=-#go_?
Collapsed a bit since it opened but still looking pretty generous through the 90s. I got 95 and 96 seats at 81-1 yesterday
184 Ave it 07 Good to see you have got a democracy at last in the UK. How long did it take to change the house of Lords?
There seems to be a misconception about polling in the marginals.
A smaller swing in marginals is by definition not that much of a problem – they are marginal, it only takes a smallish swing to win them. The big swing is only required to win the safer seats.
Likewise a result of 52-48 in marginal seats (or any government held seats) would be fine for the ALP. What would be a problem would be if the 52-48 represented big swings to the ALP in safe and marginal Labor seats, with relatively little movement in safe and marginal government seats. That does not appear to be the case.
I still can’t see Labor winning. I only say that because my first election was in 1996 and therefore I’ve only ever known and seen John Howard victories. These past 11 years have been hell on my mentality. I’ve become so cynical and angry because of the Howard Government ( and the media ). I used to love Australia but Howard has made me very unpatriotic. Every day, actually every hour for the past 11 years I have something bad about the Howard Govt go through my head which brings me down. Something on tv or a lyric in a song can just make me depressed because it has a link to what Howard has done or is doing. For the sake of my mental health I hope Howard loses but I don’t have any faith in the Australian public. God I need help.
So AC Nielsen is now the outlier?
And funny how the media this morning only discussed the Galaxy poll: showing their biases again!
Aussieguru01. stop rubbing it in.
A smaller sing in marginals (be definition less than 6%) is completely irrelevant when the nationwide swing is also at least 6%. For any seat saved, another will go.
Luke. hang in there buddy. having seen the defeats i too have been cautious. but this time i think its the real deal.
nice picture in the online version of Michelle Grattan’s Age piece this morn, shows a wood duck and a lame duck….
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/its-time-say-voters/2007/11/22/1195321951483.html
212 – House of lords is good!
I preferred it when there were only proper lords there tho, none of these ‘nominated’ do gooders!
I’m a bit like Luke! I’m getting anxious also! I guess the good thing about Galaxy and Newspoll is that it’ll cause some fence sitters to move into the Labor camp.
Patrick Bateman says: “A smaller swing in marginals is by definition not that much of a problem – they are marginal, it only takes a smallish swing to win them. The big swing is only required to win the safer seats.”
Correct Patrick, and if the swings in the marginals are not as large as the national swing (but as you point out, will still fall), then the swings in other less marginal seats will most likely be even bigger.
O’Shannasy wouldn’t be saying the result would be a cliffhanger if his poll was showing a bigger margin than 52/48. In this is the case there must be a late swing to the Govt not picked upped by ACN which started polling a day earlier than Galaxy.
ESJ @ 129. I actually didn’t receive an invite to this Nielsen, they randomize it within their pool of respondents. The online Nielsen isn’t self selected and it isn’t a rolling sample so there’s no reason to doubt its statistical credability.
Luke, I feel your pain. I feel it… but cling to hope, it’s all we’ve got (until tomorrow night, one hopes)
Dave R, you’ll hope one day when your party is in decline… and it will happen some day… that people don’t automatically count you out. All parties deserve the chance to get their message across.
To me, the Dems are hopeless media performers and don’t know how to run a campaign if their life depended on it… but when you watch them in Parliament it’s hard not to acknowledge their worth.
I dispute you on the Greens not being negative. Watch Senator Milne for a few hours and you will see negative. The hope for the Greens, to me, is Senator Siewert, who has credibility. In addition I’m impressed with Larissa Waters in Queensland. However, I’ve never been particularly fussed with Kerry Nettle, who happens to be the Senate candidate in my state. Hence the tough choice.
This is why Australia has a Senate, to piss off people like you.
Morning MM…1 more day to go YYyyyyyyyyyeesssssssssssssssss
the statement by the SMH that sources within both parties say the ACN poll more accurately reflects internal party polling is enough for me.
when the swing is on, its on.
Goodmorning AG01!! one more sleep!!!! woohoooooooooooooooooo!!!!! the champagne and xxxx is on ice!
Pancho @ 211,
That betting market looks a bit odd. What seems to be happening is that the money is being spread throughout the market, but particularly focused toward the higher end. I remember a couple of days ago that 100+ seats was at $101, now it is at $10.
My overall impression is that the punters have NFI how many seats that Labor is going to get, but they’re guessing that it’ll be somewhere between 79 and 91 seats.
middle man it’s a question of whether you believe SMH. I don’t. The official party lines are that it’s tight. There’s no reason they’d be letting it out of the bag now.
Anyone saying they are now “getting anxious” what did you expect?!
If I’d told you 10 months ago that on the eve of the election:
-ACN would come out 57-43;
-Galaxy would come out 52-48;
-the Australian, the SMH and the Daily Telegraph would endorse Rudd; and
-Centrebet would have the ALP favourite $1.25-$4.50
would you have told me you would be anxious at this point?
I think not.
You’re allowing yourselves to be fooled by a media keen for hype/a story, Coalition supporters desperate for something to hold on to in the hope of winning (just as ALP supporters were in 2004) and your own inate pessimism.
Look at it this way, even if Rudd loses:
-Howard is never standing for another election;
-polling companies are going to be worthless; and
-the world will keep turning.
LTEP,
The official party lines is that ACN is closer to what they’ve been hearing.
Greetings all.
Been reading this blog for a while now and have enjoyed it immensely. Like many here I long to see the end of conservative rule but cant help feeling nervous.
As I see it most Aussies still think the economy is going ‘gangbusters’ and this may see people drift back to the Coalition. Unfortunately the myth that Labor are poor economic managers persists in the minds of many and this may hurt the ALP.
As it is I’ll sleep restlessly tonight. I also feel some of the optimism expressed on these forums may be misguided. Hope I’m wrong and admit I’m no psephologist but my gut tells me its gonna be close. I’ve felt this way from day one and certain polls seem to confirm my fears.
Very sensible comment BV.
Letp. agreed on Kerry Nettle. She too easily opts for hyperbole to get her message across. a bit too much chicken little for me.
The betting markets follow the money – the money comes from regular Joes – the regular Joes don’t understand how our electoral system works.
The betting agencies are going to go out of business! The polling companies only reflect the 2PP result, which may still be close to the final outcome, but the number of seats needed won’t go to Labor.
The front page of the Herald – “Howard needs a miracle” – will be framed on the wall of Young Libs HQ.
I’m not getting burned again.
It should’ve been Latho, dammit.
Maxine’s odds have shortened even further!
Centrebet now has Howard on 1.72 and Maxine on 2.00!
*jumps for joy*
“Mr Rudd heads into the final two days of the campaign with an election-winning lead in the polls, although early figures from Newspoll and the latest Galaxy poll in News Limited newspapers give the Coalition some hope.
Newspoll is detecting strong gains for the Coalition in Western Australia and a minor recovery in Queensland and Victoria, with full figures to be available in the final poll of the campaign exclusively in The Weekend Australian tomorrow.”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22806913-11949,00.html
No I haven’t. The over-round is pretty large (ie. if you sum up the probabilities implied by the odds the total is much much bigger than 1) which means the bookie is being particularly stingy… which isn’t unusual when there are this many outcomes covered.
I’m tipping the ALP to win by 18 seats. Certainly don’t evpect them to win anywhere north of 90 seats total. Maybe next time they can solidify their majority.
I have seen the Newspoll chief on Skynews for a few interviews.
1. He always expresses astonishment that the “better economic manager” support for the Coalition has not resulted in Howard leading in the primary and 2PP.
2. He always talks up whatever part of that week’s poll is positive for the Coalition, in the same vein as Shanahan (though with less emotive language, of course).
3. He makes a big fuss that the approval/disapproval rating for Howard is “very good” for someone in the PM job so long, and says Rudd’s high approval rating is irrelevant because it’s for Opposition Leader, not PM.
3. He often answers questions which are merely his opinions about the election campaign and totally irrelevant to his polling.
4. He is very defensive about having stuffed the 2PP calculations last time, and says Newspoll has gone back to old calculation used before 2004.
As for his comments reported in here this morning, are they in the genre of Gary Morgan’s too close to call CYA comments reported in here, but with the added spin of how long the count will take. I hope he didn’t use the word “certain” because that’s not a word anyone with credibility would use about their polling data and calculations.
William would it be possible to set something up where all bloggers here, of whatever persuasion, can register their prediction of say TPP and seats in the one place, so that we can really see who was closest in the final wash-up.
Hopefully it might avoid some of the spin-doctoring that will occur, when people try to explain away their errant multiple predictions.
Perhaps in tabular form something like :-
USERNAME TPP SPLIT ALP/L&NP ALP SEATS L/NP
Just a thought!
hunstundho. its all talk. it’ll all be within MoE. The GG is just talking up a fight. reminds me of teh press trying to talk up the QLD Reds v Waratahs match this year.
And I will lose a lot of money.
What I think this means:
Newspoll was projecting early this week that Labor would win 2 in W.A. now they will have a net gain of 0
Early this week Newspoll said Labor was on a 9.6% swing in QLD, take that down to 7 or 8%, which is still gigantic.
Early this week Newspoll said Labor was on a 6% swing in Victoria, take this down to 4.5 or 5%.
All the polls say Rudd is going to win. Galaxy says he will get 80 seats, AC Nielsen says he will get 95 – 100. Newspoll will probably fit in at 85 – 90.
But the real answer is only 1 day away!
less than 24 hours till the election day,
I don’t see any narrowing in the betting markets,
Average across the markets: Labor 1.22 / Coalition 4.30
BetFair has best offer for both parties: 1.25 / 4.8
If ACN is more correct than the other two. That will mean a big shake up or at least wierd spin in the years ahead when News LTD are reporting on its own future polls.
Hustundho,
That report seems to be in line with the statement by Jim Middleton on ABC 702 this morning that there has been a slight narrowing, but Labor still in front. I’m still sticking with my 53/47 prediction for Newspoll.
Did O’Shannasy actually say the newspoll was showing “a cliffhanger”?
Middle Man,
Agree with you on that point. The MOE seems to have disappeared from political commentators’ vocabulary in the past two weeks…
O’Shaughnessy said that Galaxy was showing a “cliffhanger” – I believe…
Morning K Jin!
On the day i’m picking 54.5… or a bit higher… but not the full 55.
What the latest polls are showing is that every vote counts. People will rightly feel as they go into the polling booth that it is their vote that could be difference, for either party.
It’s been an extremely long campaign which basically started in December last year when Mr Rudd became Opposition Leader. Whatever happens tomorrow I think for the ALP to be in the position they are in is amazing. Both sides know they are in a battle.
I would say Mr Rudd has had a better year politically than the PM. He has withstood nearly a year of constant attacks and criticisms. To out campaign someone like JWH is a feat in itself.
I sincerely hope the poll tomorrow reflects the sentiment of the whole year and the ALP are successful. I would say that most of us have enjoyed the contests of differing opinion from all sides of the Australian political spectrum on this fantastic site . Thanks William, you’ve made this election a great roller coaster ride for all of us.
Trioli said on ABC radio yesterday that both parties internal polling indicated an 8 seat Labor victory. I’m not sure how credible that is, but it was reassuring, particularly in light of the SMH remark.
Well that’s quite different then. It’s fair enough if he wants to call Galaxy a cliffhanger…. but I thought some folks were suggesting that he said that Newspoll was also a cliffhanger?
Swing Lowe. it has competely disappeared. they are reading 1 point moves as though they are true and accurate reflections of the whole populace. these are guides.
If Trioli was saying that I’d say it’s pretty good… particularly since she was stating both parties’ internals were showing that.
It depends who told her though.
(Note – there are two posters using “Andrew” here now…)
The betting markets follow the money – the money comes from regular Joes – the regular Joes don’t understand how our electoral system works.
The betting agencies are going to go out of business! The polling companies only reflect the 2PP result, which may still be close to the final outcome, but the number of seats needed won’t go to Labor.
The front page of the Herald – “Howard needs a miracle” – will be framed on the wall of Young Libs HQ.
I’m not getting burned again.
It should’ve been Latho, dammit.
Ashley there were:
Newspoll is detecting strong gains for the Coalition in Western Australia and a minor recovery in Queensland and Victoria, with full figures to be available in the final poll of the campaign exclusively in The Weekend Australian tomorrow.”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22806913-11949,00.html
Btw, my TPP prediction is 53.5/46.5. Just a hunch – nothing much to back me up on that one…
Andrew,
You should change your profile name then…
Martin O’Shaunessy/Gary Morgan – peas from the same pod. Both like to interpret their own polls according to their political leanings. Both like to see their names being reported. Both like to be controversial.
Assuming the (as yet unannounced) Newspoll to be 52 or 53 for Labor…
For O’Shaunessy to talk about cliffhanger/won’t know for a week etc on the basis of ONE poll, when the moe for this upcoming poll is probably no smaller than 2.5% (prob +/- 3%), is really showing his colours.
He knows full well that the undecideds/don’t cares/apathetics split mostly to the party with the momentum when they get to mark their ballot paper.
This is the reason for his statements today – and also the purpose of the headline in News Ltd tabloids. For example, see..
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/
…with statements like “knife edge” and photo “finish” when commenting on the Galaxy poll (also just one poll with moe of probably 3%).
For their supporters, the LNP needs to be seen at this late stage to be on the way back.
Maxine is in to $2 in Bennelong at Centrebet!!!
The betting contest is also tighetening in Longman!
BROUGH 1.65, SULLIVAN 2.10 (Centrebet)
I said somewhere yesterday that Michelle Grattan wouldn’t take kindly to Howard’s attempt to fob off questions about possible candidate involvement in the Kelly Gang affair.
Looks like I was right!
THAT the Coalition apparently stands on the brink of defeat at tomorrow’s election is an extraordinary indictment of John Howard.
This Prime Minister has been the overwhelming driving force in his Government and, if the Coalition is swept away, as the polls are suggesting, he will have to shoulder most of the blame personally.
He has made bad decisions this term, ranging from WorkChoices to his refusal to retire. After many years of warning against hubris he has succumbed to it. And he has run a poor campaign.
(Grattan from http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2007/11/22/1195321945520.html )
No, I’ll stick with my name.
My attempt to post under an alternate name resulted in the comment approval process again, and William is occupied elsewhere.
(Andrew – The one with the $200.00 bet)
240
Curtins for the Rodent
Already been done.
http://pbpredict.googlepages.com/home
Latest Lindsay campaign news.
Liberals will be wearing this message on their shirts.
I’m not racist but…
I am a liberal.
242 – Ashley – not as much as me
261. Swing Lowe
What is Howard at?
When do the betting markets close?
Hustundho,
Howard is at $1.72 on Centrebet.
Sportingbet has Howard up $1.58/$2.20
Portlandbet has Howard up $1.67/$2.08
bryce @ #260
Poster “toby” was giving advance Newspoll figures last night. He’s previous “advance” figures have been spot on.
TPP was 54/46.
he also gave state breakdowns. I can’t remember all:
Qld was a big gap at 56/44
Vic had narrowed considerably, maybe 52/48 (which surprised us all)
WA 48/52
SA ?
NSW ?
Toby did not have primaries.
Rudd, if elected, is promising to say sorry (and actually apologise) to the Aborigines in his first term.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22808100-29277,00.html
Galaxy is a good poll for Labor it gives the Coalition false hope, scares some people in voting for Labor in the fear Howard gets back in, then on Saturday comes the flood that washes them out of office
SA was 55/45 and NSW 54/46.
As I said earlier. Treat with caution as there was a strange ‘identity thraud’ plea that came from Toby.
thanks LTEP.
No they are all wrong its 60-40 Viva la educatione revolucione.
Galaxy may be considered the Accurate 1 with regrets to the last Fed, NSW and QLD elections. But in all these cases there didn’t seem to be a chance of a government change. As Galaxy has not been involved in a government change, maybe they should be discounted at this election as it appears there will be a change of government.
It’s important to note Rudd still enjoys a wid(ish) lead on Preferred PM 51-43 I believe. It’s hard to imagine the case where someone who has lead on Preferred PM for so long could fail to win the election.
Still… I suppose people could just love their local member that much.
All the TPP’s are based on preference flows. The Polls got this wrong in 2004 and changed their approach. Could that be wrong now? Are the Greens primary higher and is their preference flow going to be stronger to Labor?
TO WILLIAM BOWE
YOUR INTRO STORY HAS THE WRONG “MORGAN” FIGURES
YOUR Story says a 5.2 swing to Labor in the 22 ‘marginals’
BUT Morgan’s Poll sayss the 22 seat 2PP is Labor 51.5% tp 48.5%
ie a swing to Labor of 4.2% NOT 5.2% AS YOU REPORTED
Henry DO you agree ??????????????????
Rusty (195) It seems Galaxy have suddenly come up with a 2.5% primary for Family First, after having not registered a reading for them over their last three surveys since September. This seems to account for most of the 2.5% fall in their ALP primary since their last survey. The Coalition vote has increased by just 0.5%, yet somehow the two party preferred falls from 54/46 to 52/48.
Meanwhile Morgan comes up with 54.5/45.5 – a 7.2% swing since 2004 – and declares it will be a close election (WTF). It’s also worth noting that all of Morgan’s 5 or 6 phone polls over recent times have shown a lower ALP primary than their larger face to face ones. They will be putting out their final face to face poll tomorrow, so it’s most unlikely their 2pp figure will be any lower for Labor.
So far, on what we’ve seen, it’s very hard to see anything other than an ALP win. Newspoll will be very interesting
It will be close to 57% if not over it.
Howard and the libs have very few core constituances that support them.
Should be 92 seats minium and be interesting to see the number of ministers going, Hocker Pyne for starters, representing Work Choices and Aged Care which they have stuffed up. Brough is laso a big risk to go.
As to lib MP’s jumping ship after the elction, a good win by labor of 92 would see quite a few go as they would not relish the years in opposition, amore comfortable win could see some stay on to avert further seats being lost in by elections.
Either way Costello won’t stay around long, he won’t get the oppostion eader job and will probably only get get aminor shadow ministry.
Costelo was useless and a negative in government, no way the libs want him in any prominent position in opposition.
Downer will most likely be the stop gap opposition leader until they find someone sensible, most likely someone new brought into a seat vacated by one of the older libs in a by election.
Here’s Jackman from the Bulletin today for those who consider his opinions worth considering:
“Now if the Galaxy result is independent of the Nielsen result, then the probability of both outcomes is the product of the individual probabilities, or about .0005; i.e., 5 times in 10,000 would random sampling give rise to results at least as dispersed as the ones we got. If we add the on-line Nielsen poll to the mix, then it gets even more ridiculous. Sampling error alone can’t explain these diverse poll results.
The more plausible scenario is what are known as “house effects”. That is, Nielsen is doing something in its question-wording, its weighting, etc, that is generating some bias (and the fact that its phone and on-line polls agree so closely is interesting in this regard), and Galaxy has its own set of in-house procedures that is also generating some bias. Perhaps these house effects are small, perhaps large, we don’t know, at least not yet.”
Btw, one of my contacts who has strong connections to Grey says that Labor is in with a real shot there. He reckons there’s more chance of Grey falling to Labor than Boothby, as the local MP who is retiring there was responsible for building up the Coalition margin there.
That said, he still think it’s unlikely that Labor will win there, but expect a big swing.
Labors 2PP vote in 2004 was 47.26% as per http://www.aec.gov (Electoral commission)
Relax punters.
Newspoll is being spun – it will indicate, much like Morgan, that the real result is between Galaxy and ACN.
Fact: If it was very good for the coalition we’d already know it.
Ergo: It aint.
53+% and an piss easy win for the ALP. You can put that one in the bank.
I’m astonished by the GG editorial, and that in the Daily Telegraph, for that matter. Given the bias in their coverage of the campaign towards the Government, I can’t help thinking the editorials represent panic – sniffing the wind and jumping ship (to mix metaphors) to show they really are in touch with their readers. About the only bright point, if the weasel squeaks across the line tomorrow, will be the well deserved, copious servings egg on the faces of the respective editors and commentators of these two cynical and indelibly soiled rags.
Thanks 264! Please excuse my ignorance but how do I my prediction in?
53% you are being way to conservative Lefty E – all over suburban Australian, housewives are getting into their Kevin07 gear with a quiet and righteous determination to bring in the education revolution, Medicare Gold is having her hair done, Peter Garrett is getting a last minute polish and working families are looking to the heavens and saying at last our prayers have been heard… surely it will be 60%?
ESJ! You’re showing your ‘in-house bias’ you ALP hack. 57 tops.
ESJ
Its AUSTRALIAN working families.
Sheesh….get it right.
ESJ, don’t forget… they’re all going to go out the back door.
Yes LTEP all the unclean, wicked and insufficiently fervent will indeed be cast out the back door into damnation!
Has an election ever been decided in the last 2 days of a campaign without a dramatic intervening event?
Michael @ 293 – No.
the rattus is using the auto dial in dobell
ps we are on the do not call register
You know what O’S’s comments mean to me … they mean I’m keen to buy the Australian tomorrow to find out the truth. Actually, I’ll look on line, but the deal is his comments are all about circulation.
Go red!
Local free paper Penrith Press out today has the Lindsay pamphlet scandal on the front page and page 3 again with same photos as in the Tele. Yay!
Dolly Downer was bitchin’ (as only she can) on radio about how Rudd is just offering cliches from a marketing company, and then went on to say that he will wake up on Sunday morning with no idea how to run “Australia’s 1.1 trillion dollar economy”.
She’s a hoot! They just don’t get it: the population is sick of them, and no amount of badmouthing with their own silly mantras can change that.
Bring it on!
Message to nervous nellies:
can you think of a better way to firm up ALP voters than “oooh, its close” style reports?
Say farewell to Galaxy poll. They’ll be doing cutprice market research for Soul Pattison Chemists this time next week.
Does anyone know the betting odds prior to the last NSW election?
If Newspoll is showing 52-48 tomorrow than Labor will lose for sure. It is all over red rover. The Libs are back in power! Even 53-47 would see the Libs returned and possibly even 54-46 if the marginals hold.
Actually no matter what the polls show for Labor, it will be a close victory for the Libs.
How do I know this and how can I make such a bold and confident statement?
I read it on this forum…lol
Mr Awesome,
It was something like ALP $1.04/ Coalition $10.
Kirribilli Removals @ 297:
http://www.ozforums.com.au/viewtopic.php?id=2116
heard some goss that internal lib polling 2 weeks ago had them losing by only 3 seats….. gulp! I’m trying not to get nervy.
Check out this betting market at Sportingbet:
http://www.sportingbet.com.au/uipub/sport.aspx?l1id=34&l2id=189195&l3id=750185
I knew it! Morgan is going to b the closest final poll, and win back all their credibility!
Regardless of the differences in polls we have now had a consistent 100 all pointing to a Labor win and not one single solitary poll showing Libs any better than 48%. So it would seem 48% is the very best the Libs can hope for and while I know there are some on here that believe the Libs can win on 48% I don’t, no party has EVER won on 48% (Lowest is 48.9 assisted by One Nation).
I have seen nothing in the campaign itself to suggest a potential collapse of ALP vote so am very confident of approx 54/46 result with ALP at least 85 seats.
The Lib’s can now go back to being the Opposition part that they all aspired to. I always thought Costello would be a great Opposition leader as he can’t say anything without putting the Labor part down – a true reactionary. He can only react to what others are doing.
Luke @ 214
I reckon they’ve got it this time. I remember the 1993 election. I was sure Hewson would take it and, believe me, that Fightback package was scary. Nick Greiner was in in NSW and Kirner was imploding in Victoria. Kennet was waiting in the wings. Fightback was replete with then fashionable, untested Thatcherite extreme policies. I well remember the headiness of conservatives who were convinced that the only role of government was law and order and defence. Some even wanted to privatise consular functions of Asutralian embassies.
Well, the night of the 93 election, a steamy March night, I tuned in to Red Kerry, as usual. Bob McMullan started off looking grim and the liberal hack (can’t remember who) looked cocksure to say the least. About 7 pm, Bob started saying things like “I think we’ll hold that one” and similar. The night just got better and better.
I anticipate a similarly good night on Saturday and have just about dispelled my fears that the 2007 election will be the exact inverse of 2003.
Enjoy.
SIEV XI, don’t beileve rumours of internal polling.
Trioli has mentioned internal polling from both parties suggests a win by the ALP by 8 seats.
Apparently both sides of internal polling are currently closer to the ACN poll
Update on Matt Price -
I sent an email message to the Canberra Bureau Chief to ask about him. I received a reply today in my inbox with this information.
The tumour was cancerous. He has undergone (past tense) heavy doses of radio therapy in the past weeks. Doctors still do not know yet if it has worked. It is too soon to tell yet.
Matthew Franklin (Canberra Bureau Chief) says we could all pray for him.
Er… exact inverse of 1993. Sorry
Is there any truth to the push polling rumor re: Galaxy?
That’s very sad news Julie. It’s tough to beat if it’s malignant. I’m sure he’s a fighter though.
Nothing concrete, but several people here have raised anecdotal evidence, whatever that’s worth
Of course Galaxy was push polled ND, there is a wave of righteous anger in this nation demanding that the Great Satan and his hoarde be expelled from the people’s house and demanding that Kevin come and restore peace and harmony to Australian working families.
simon jackman..
‘If we do what statisticians call a precision-weighted average, we wind up with 55.7%, with the larger sample size of the Nielsen poll giving it higher weight. ‘
http://thebulletinelection.ninemsn.com.au/polls_diverge_but_labor_still_on_course_for_victory.htm
ahhhhh thats better
BV, we all love Dolly, eh? She gives good quote, as they say!
Speaking of lines, I had to pinch myself after reading the GG’s editorial:
We recognise that no change is free of risk, but we recommend a vote for Mr Rudd.
Am I dreaming?
Yes, that’s terrible news on Matt Price. It’ll take a while to fight that off…
I just remembered an interesting article I read a month or two ago in which The Age referred back to their polling in 1996 which showed a similar stability to this years’ polls. They said, when averaging them that the result was very close to the final result.
They then went on to look at what this years’ result should be if that held true and came up with 57/43.
gee seems ESJ has been converted.
hehaheahehahehahe
believe you me. newspapers know all the inside running. they just cant print it as its not “on the record”. If the DT, CM and GG are backing Rudd you can be guaranteed they know whats going on.
Its a state by state or key demographic consideration.
Age on the fence? Hun going against stable mates. i reckon they know there isn’t much of a swing in the state.
CM and DT know the swing is on in QLD and NSW so are going with their customers.
The GG takes a national view therefore backing the overal winner Rudd.
AFR is for the business types who all regardless of background seem to think they shoudl be liberal voters.
Julie: That’s sad to hear about Matt Price. Hope he can pull through.
qld will bring home for the local lad. just watch.
Much better Esj. Now if you could just so something about how Mr howard has no plan for the future, make some references to “stale” and “out of touch”, i’ll be happy!
Does anyone know where Rudd is campaigning today? A few weeks back I heard he was thinking of leaving the last day for a swing through Bennelong, Wentworth and North Sydney. But maybe they have backed off due to the likely accusation that he was succumbing to hubris.
Is he in NSW today?
Of course nothing would have changed too much, especially nothing favourable for Howard. I would expect Howard to actually lose more votes for a pretty bad week.
The polls are giving the usual noise. I have more trust in AC Nielsen than Morgan F2F or Galaxy simply because it has been consistent in its polling figures compared to election results since 1996. So its recent figures probably tell the right story, though the latest one is at the high end of moe.
The Morgan phone polls seem of late to now reflect the same levels as Newspoll/Nielsen.
Newspoll and Nielsen have been telling the exact same story, a 54%+ result is on the cards.
If this Morgan is correct it would be the worst possible news for the LNP. Getting just the right amount of swing in the marginals to win them leaves all that ’spare’ swing to pick up a bunch of safe seats. Possum’s analysis in action.
The Liberals wont even get close, regardless of what the next Newspoll says. It is all too late.
Swing Lowe 269
The Narrowing! The Narrowing!
It is proven fact that rainfall has always be higher under a Labour government than a Liberial Government.
An unproven forecast I just heard is for above normal rainfalls in the summer months ahead.
I am just off to the kitchen to inspects the entrails of last nights chicken.
330 – why do we only taint change with risk? I would have thought that doing nothing (or not changing) was fraught with risk.
Thats funny schtick today, ESJ.
Ron Brown, Morgan’s article contains a table which indicates the combined 2004 result in the 22 marginal seats they have covered was 53.7-46.3, and their current polling has it at 48.5-51.5. Hence a 5.2 per cent swing.
yes K Jin, Kevin Rudd’s first action will be to say “Let there be rain” and then there will be rain.
After the election the Galaxy Poll will be shiped of to a Galaxy far far away.
Fine analysis, as usual, Kina @ 338. Jackman seems in line with your reasoning in his Bulletin article today.
With thanks to Aristotle yesterday, let’s look at the final ACN polls over the last few elections. Look at the Labor polling vs the actual vote in each.
1996 election L/NP ALP
ACN 46 (-1) 41 (+2.3)
Result 47 38.7
1998 election L/NP ALP
ACN 42 (+2.5) 40 (-0.1)
Result 39.5 40.1
2001 election L/NP ALP
ACN 46 (+2.9) 38 (+0.2)
Result 43.1 37.8
2004 election L/NP ALP
ACN 49 (+2.3) 37 (-0.6)
Result 46.7 37.6
they’ve got a pretty good record at picking the final ALP figure. If they’re this close again, it’s a drubbing.
For everyone concerned about the polls, think about this:
When has any election (anywhere) been close when the TPP is 53/47? When has a 53/47 polling result suggested a close election?
The answer is simple – never.
When Sarzoky beat Royal in this year’s French Presidential Election, it was considered a landslide. If Newspoll is 53/47, it should signify the end of JWH – not a close result.
Re 85,
Edward StJohn Says:
Yes, I lived through this. I was 13 when Nixon resigned. Agreed. The Libs need a CLEAN break with no or very few holdovers or they won’t be able to resell themselves to the electorate. Very astue observation from a Liberal supporter
Im not changing, its too risky. Im not moving to that chair to watch the telly, as I havent done it before, and the experience may be full unknown terrors.
In fact, I’m going to sit here and not even blink, case I miss a single moment of never being better off.
I must say I agree Swing Lowe. And I’d like to add that the apparent acceptance over the last 10 months that 48-52 is “close” and “winnable” for the Coalition could in part be put down to Coalition supporters framing such a result, should it eventuate tomorrow, as somehow not a terrible loss. I beg to differ. And will do so loudly.
Thanks, Julie for for the update on Matt Price. Malignant brain tumours are never good news. Our thoughts are with Matt and his family.
Any loss for the Libs will be a terrible loss. 3 years ago it was unimaginable that the ALP could even come close to winning. Somehow this has turned into it being unimaginable that the ALP could lose.
And then LTEP, the fields will bloom and the peasants will sing as they bring in the bountiful harvest. Workers will link hands with the peasants and throw out the running dogs in the GG.
The national birthrate will rise, Medicare Gold will be abolished in the second term as no one becomes sick ever more …..
Yeah, the “we can win at 48%” line is the equivalent of the Volkssturm troops in April 1945. Old blokes and 14 yo with Panzerfausts, facing the Red Army.
Its all illusion. The line cannot hold. The Libs will lose at 52-48.
Not that it will be that close!
I JUST SPOKE TO GARY MORGAN
to let him know his 5.2% marginal swing to Labor is mathematically wrong
because the swing is 4.% not 5.2 % in the marginals based on his figures
ie. Morgan is showing Labor in marginals at 51.5% to 48.5%
against 47.26% in 2004 election
ie. a swing of 4.2% NOT 5.2%
GARRY MORGAN AGREED WITH ME AND SAID HE WOULD CORRECT HIS PRESS RELEASE AND WEB SITE !!
Unfortunately fellow guys , Labor can NOT win on Morgan’s 4.2% marginal swing
and realistically can not win on Galaxy’s overall 4.8% swing
Good point LTEP.
It mustn’t be forgotten that this election should have been unloseable for the coalition.
When the polls are saying somewhat divergent things then go to the great aggregators of this information, and that is the betting markets.
Labor is $1.20-$1.22 and has not moved today. Neither the Galaxy poll nor the ACN poll has moved the market.
On these figures, Labor has about a 79% chance of winning the election, which is highly likely but not certain.
For comparison, on the eve of the last election, the coalition was at $1.16, implying an 82% chance of winning, a little bit higher.
Of course then the coalition only had not to lose 10 seats to win the election, whereas this time Labor has to win 16. Yet Labor’s chances in 2007 are rated only slightly less likely than the coalition’s were in 2004.
And let’s remember, on the day before the 2004 election, betting odds aside. only a mad man would have given Labor any chance at all of winning, and so it proved.
Ron Brown/Lefty E
You see faith in the fuhrer’s miracle weapons was not mistaken.
ALP is gone according to Ron Brown. Libs to win on 48-52
Re 119,
Howard Hater Says:
I know …… I was hoping too that he would be in Bennelong today. I hope that Maxine gets up in the seat but if she doesn’t, I wonder if he will regret not going there today. I don’t doubt for one minute that they will win by enough in margin that one seat (be it Bennelong or any other) isn’t going to matter, but it would be a crying shame to have to have her get the seat in a byelection.
Exactly Swing Lowe. In any past election the media would be proclaiming 53/47 as a landslide. The only difference this time around it that expectations have been raised so high on the back of 12 months of ALP 55-58.
galaxy and morgan are polling sideshows. more volatility than Mark Geyer!
ACN has long been the real deal.
Here’s a note that recently turned up in my email, it’s from David Williamson, via a few other people.
Hang in there folks.
David Williamson writes:
In 1971 I wrote the play Don’s Party about the 1969 election night, when Labor supporters were fervently hoping for the arrival of the Great Gough. As it turned out he was five seats short of arriving and we had to wait until 1972 before the long dark night of conservative rule ended.
The similarities with this Saturday’s election are obvious, and many of the old baby boomers, faint memories of the idealistic dreams of the sixties not yet erased by Alzheimer’s, are hoping fervently we won’t see a re-run of 1969. There are many reasons to wish Johnnie bon voyage, the most pressing being the thought of another eighteen months of television footage of his morning walks.
It’s time to say no to those daggy shorts, the horrible knees, the resolute stride towards a neo con past where Anglo man still rules the world, and the total lack of wit or spontaneity in his travelling badinage. Joy number two will be picturing the tears and foot stamping of the well paid hosts of Howard acolytes littering our press.
Any journalist who can turn a man his own party dubbed a “lying rodent”, into the Saint who saved Australia, has, like their idol, a superb grasp of slippery rhetoric which has hopefully earned them enough money to retire. These same scribes have falsely divided Australia into “Howard hating elites”, and “ordinary Australians,” without ever asking the question as to why many with the remnants of a conscience, including “ordinary Australians”, find it hard to stomach him.
The shameless exploitation of fear and hysteria over four hundred genuine and dehydrating refugees on Tampa might be a start. The ludicrous and hugely expensive “Pacific solution” might be another. The moral sleaze of the Saddam kickbacks, the lies of children overboard, the blatant and immoral pork barrelling of Coalition electorates, the attempt to deliver a cowed and cheap workforce to employers without a mandate, the constant and unrelenting grovelling to George Bush, the deathbed conversion to climate change and reconciliation lite – the list could go on.
If John can’t pull a Tampa out of his baggy green in this last week, it looks over for him. But we’ve been through 1969, and the anxiety is rising nonetheless. The thought of the most unlovely and thuggish front bench in Australian political history, namely Abbott, Downer, Costello, Ruddock, Andrews, Hockey and the rest retaining power is a thought that could send our already soaring rate of depression exponential.
If Rudd does win it will be heartening proof that the cynical pundits who say the hip pocket nerve is the only factor are wrong. Many would like a return to simple decency, and Rudd patently has more of it than Howard. If it’s not a re-run of 1969 and John and Janette are prised out of Kirribilli, the greatest relief for me will still be the end of the morning walks.
The met bureau is forecasting drought breaking rains in Queensland over coming months. In 1983, just after Hawke was elected, the then drought broke. Hawke, of course, claimed the credit. I guess Rudd will do the same. Why not?
Ron Brown,
Then Gary Morgan is an idiot – William has given a perfectly good explanation for why it is 5.2% rather than 4.2% at 343.
The point Howard misses is although people may be richer materially than they were 11 years ago we as a society have become poorer.
Ron Brown, if the swing is 4% in marginals, then it must be about 10% in the rest of Australia no? With numbers like this it is all over, no matter how you wish to spin it. Maintain the rage though…
Great article at OLO comparing 2007 with the 1929 election in which Labor was elected two days before the Wall Street crash:
http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=6681
Includes this quote:
“A Rudd Government, if we get one, might last as long as Scullin’s did. That would take us perhaps to the beginning of 2010. Labor would probably split long before that. The Treasurer or some other minister might take a few Labor dissidents to form a government with Opposition members led perhaps by Peter Costello. Somehow, we might then stumble through a long, deep and terrible depression, to end around, let us say, 2017 in World War Three.”
It took til then before I appreciated the humour.
Ron Brown, if you really did speak to Gary Morgan can you please call him back and ask him “is Australia heading in the ‘right direction’”?
356 Ron Brown.
You are using the 2004 2pp of the entire 150 seats as the base not of just the 22 marginals. See William’s post at 343 for the explanation of why he is correct.
It doesn’t say much for Gary Morgan if he agreed with you.
Chris in London,
What the h*** has happened to Brown? I have Sky on now and this half hour is the British Sky news. They just showed Brown’s opinion polls. 33% drop in overall approval and who can best handle the economy. It isn’t just the identity scandal of the computer discs being lost. My goodness ….. back 2 months ago, people were speculating if Britain would call a snap election before we went to the polls. With the Tories now having the best polls in 15 years maybe Glenn and company can relocate to London after tomorrow night ?
You’re applying a marginal seats 2007 poll to a NATIONAL 2pp result in 2004. It’s not comparable.
“You’re applying a marginal seats 2007 poll to a NATIONAL 2pp result in 2004. It’s not comparable.”
Maybe so. BUT WHAT IF RON WRITES IN CAPITALS?
Rudd does not need viagra to make his poll figures look good.
Howard on the other hand…well…and even then his figures need to be artificially inflated for him to have any lift off.
yes we’re all so stupid that if Ron write in caps maybe we’ll understand him.
Julie. someone in the public service over there sent a file containing millions of records of families with kids, their personal details, how much they get paid from the govt, the bank account it gets paid to etc, through the internal govt mail and it never arrived at its destination. Its gone missing.
The public are going ballastic over it!
New poll in Boothby by Adel. Uni reported on ABC Local Radio, very close, details not on web page yet. Apologies if someone reported already, I’m snowed under with work stuff & can’t go through all comments to check. Local forum of candidates on radio, Cornes a no show, but crowd & calls very anti-Libs so far. Local State independent member in area own polling in some of Boothby same pattern.
LOL pancho!
i wRITE iN tOGGLE tO bUILD tHE tENSION!
No one can discount Galaxy completely until tomorrow evening, we’ll know either way by 7.30pm. I CAN HARDLY WAIT. Having an Election party drinks.
NewsPoll guy spends far too much time drooling over Helen Daley everytime I see him to make any sense.
347
Holy sh**….
With this track record, we can expect an OVERestimation of the Lib primary, and pretty much bang on for the Labor primary. That means the REAL result is likely to be about 48-38 on primaries and therefore a bigger landslide than 1996, not to mention that the ALP will also win the preferences, blowing it out even further!!
Won’t galaxy look link a pack of numpties if this is the case.
Leave Ron alone! I once had a boss who used capitals all the time because he did not know when they should be used!
Re 212,
Bushfire Bill Says:
Still off the smokes?
@380
lEFTY, yOU’RE kILLING mE wITH tENSION!!!!
Mine is 53.7 Labor. How many seats?
yOu cAlL tHAt tEnSioN ?
Damien J
my economic history is a little hazy these days, but was not Australia already in a terrible trough by the time of the Wall ST crash and that was the reason the Bruce government fell and then things only got worse after the crash on Wall ST and Labour was then thrown out.
Don’t know if this has been posted, well worth a look:
http://www.domain.com.au/Public/PropertyDetails.aspx?adid=2006832414
Ha Ha
I think it’s interesting that noone is seriously suggestion the Coalition will obtain a majority of the 2PP, yet it is open that they may win the election.
I have to echo ESJ on his desire to implement MMP in Australia.
If Boothby is going to be tight that’s a decent sign.
220 Luke,
Well said
….. don’t worry, you are not alone. I married my Aussie husband in 1996 but have been ineligible to vote until this election. I’ve lived through all of those defeats too but haven’t been able to add my vote into the tally until now. It has been incredibly frurstrating for me because I have not been able to participate before this year.
ESJ
I love your The Senator character. I’ve been speculating on whether he might be real, and who he might be based on.
My first guess was Heff. I based this on yours and his obsession with (mg) Gillard. And especially so when you related Glen being called to a special assignment in Brisbane in a chicken suit.
Now, with the exile plans you outlined (which sound way too sophisticated for Heff), I’m not so sure. Any further hints?
Don’t know if this has been posted before, but it’s a cracker:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H1lYCbjzQ4I
Howard is in Leichhardt and Herbert today – not a good sign if you’re a Coalition supporter…
Let’s put the ‘Libs can win on 48% proposition’ to the sword. What happened in 1998 was due to a very specific set of results in a number of marginal seats. The chances of such a thing happening tomorrow is very slim indeed. Sure, the system favours the Libs slightly, but with polling showing some predicted huge swings out there, the ‘48% win’ idea is just ludicrous.
THere will be a horror movie made soon, called ‘The narrowing’ about a homicidal poison dwarf called the rat that looks like a duck crossed with a chimpanzee.
Does anyone remember 2004 where the accepted wisdom was that Labor needed a primary of only about 40% to be in with a chance of winning on preferences. The lowest primary for Labor I have seen is this Galaxy with it at 42.5% which is still damn good given Labors recent form on primaries. The mere fact that the worst poll for the ALP has them equal with the Liberals on primaries is something that we could have only dreamed about in 2004.
Also, in the same way that the media (and bloggers) talked up the chances of Latham winning with a hopeless primary vote of 40% or below, they are now talking up the chances of Howard winning with a 2PP of 48%. It is all about maintaining interest I would suggest. There are a lot more dollars to be made out of a close eleciton that a likely landslide.
Don,
I can tell you the Senator was obsessed in his teenage years with A ClockWork Orange. He believes Cabinet government is similar to being a member of the Droogs.
LTEP
We should form a unity ticket. I’d say if the Libs sneak in on 48% (and after seeing the Gary Nairn sugar daddy ad who knows) there may be a whole lot of Labor people who suddenly discover the merits of MMP.
Nothing has happened in this campaign to move votes to Howard. In fact, the campaign has cost him. Possum is right: there has been no narrowing. Arguing about a point here or there is irrelevant to what is happening out there. Long ago Australians decided it was time for a change – we know that because of the tens of thousands that have been sampled. It is over – the only issue is wether Labor has 85 to 90 seats,or 90plus.
From Today’s Illawarra Mercury (a very right-wing Fairfax rag) that Gash will retain Gilmore, a NSW southcoast seat, but the last paragraph is interesting!
Exclusive poll: Gash to cling on
PAUL McINERNEY
A Mercury/IRIS Research poll of Gilmore voters shows Mrs Gash has a two party-preferred lead of 53 to 47 per cent. But the significant erosion of her primary vote means the once safe Liberal seat has now been reshaped into a marginal electorate which will play a key role in the outcome of future federal ballots.
The poll gives Mrs Gash her fifth term in Parliament, but allowing for a margin of error in polling, she could be sitting on a cushion of less than the predicted 2.9 per cent.
Mrs Gash received a primary vote of 50.62 per cent – a 3.58 per cent drop based on 2004 redistributed results.
Because her predicted majority is so small, the two party preferred figures provide a more accurate picture of the likely outcome.
“This is a very large swing, certainly well above the level being measured against the Coalition across NSW, but I think Mrs Gash will just get over the line,” IRIS Research executive director Simon Pomfret said.
If the swing against Mrs Gash was to be translated across the country, the Howard government would be swept away in a historic landslide victory for Labor leader Kevin Rudd.
Speaking of ads, as we were, the current ALP ad on SMH online is a beauty, and actually made me laugh as a growling Howard is replaced by a super smirking Costello. Worth a look.
“359
Edward StJohn Says:
November 23rd, 2007 at 11:31 am
Ron Brown/Lefty E
You see faith in the fuhrer’s miracle weapons was not mistaken.”
YAAA IST GOOOT, VERE IST VENCK????
DONT worry Ron – Labor WILL win, easily, NO doubt, Without doubt. EVEN if Morgan had ALP 37% LNP 63%. IT IS ALL TOO LATE FOR Mr Rodent.
There is only one question that remains – How BIG will the win BE.
ND- nice point. But it doesn’t make me any less nervous. I’m almost positive labor’s in like flynn, but I still have a tiny part of me not wanting to jinx it and will celebrate like a mofo tomorrow night (hopefully).
Gusface @ 302 I just bumped into ur other half at tuggerah shopping centre.
She says she hasn’t been able to get a kev07 shirt because you won’t get off the internet.
We’ve run out of adult sizes but we think we have some left for the kids.
Burgey that is hilarious.
Let’s have a look at the current state of play:
In favour of a Labor victory, we have:
1. Every poll conducted this year showing a Labor victory (including the Galaxy today)
2. Every bookie predicting a Labor landslide
3. Every bookie that offers individual seat betting showing Labor winning 16+ seats
4. Every bit of marginal seat polling showing Labor will win at least 18 seats NET
In favour of a Coalition victory, we have:
1. A bunch of hypothetical scenarios showing how the Coalition may be able to win with 48% TPP (note that a Monte Carlo simulation done on a 52/48 TPP to Labor suggests that Labor has an 80% chance of winning on this TPP)
2. Nothing
So why are people nervous?
seems the chaser lady will still be on seven.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Kelly-going-ahead-with-Seven-appearance/2007/11/23/1195753265421.html
ESJ & Co @ 349 etc
Read this if you haven’t already about those lurking ready to ‘çlean out’ the Libs after it happens tomorrow.
The Lindsay brethren are in the same group. It won’t be a renewal, but rather a cultifying.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/unholy-battle-for-bible-belt/2007/11/22/1195321949400.html
swing lowe:
labor supporters are naturally pessimistic
#387 “Mine is 53.7 Labor. How many seats”
To answer your Q: 6.4% swing – 86 ALP, 62 LNP, 2 IND
a 4.5% swing (51.8% 2PP) – 76 ALP, 72 LNP, 2 IND
Swing Lowe at 409 – Because it has been 11 long years
Re 389 K Jin
Probably – it’s still a good article and made me laugh. Have a look.
http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=6681
I bet you Coalition supporters were quite nervous before ‘96, particularly given ‘93. Or they should’ve been in any case.
Swing Lowe, a good summary, but I won’t believe it will happen until it actually does. Labor has snatched defeat from the jaws of victory so often in the past that I am trying not to totally believe that they have won, even though all the objective evidence points to a resounding victory.
On the front page of ‘The Age’ today is a picture of two ‘ducks’ taken near Lake Burley Griffin. One is a live duck and one is a dead duck. The live duck is the one with feathers.
Thanks Tin Pusher.
I actually think 53.4 now but am sticking with 53.7 cause I said so earlier.
Well, it was misplaced, because those weapons didn’t win them the war…and the Galaxy weapon isn’t going to win either…
POLL UPDATE
Galaxy shows Labor primary 42.5% and Liberals 42.5%
Morgan shows overall Labor 44% to 40.5%
but in Marginals Morgan shows Labor 41.5% to 44.5% !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Conclusion
Galaxy are showing a 2% Labor primary drop in the last 2 weeks
Morgan are showing a 2% Labor drop in the last week (& a 0.5% Liberal rise)
I find it hard to believe such a Labor primary vote drop could occur
377,
I know that. I listen to Sky regularly (I know, I am a sucker for punishment) so I have British news on at least 30 minutes every day. The problem with the disks though has been just in the last few days to a week or so as I understand it (I could be wrong though, correct me if you know different?). Browns problem seems to extend back before that to sometime in September from the polling data I saw about 25 minutes ago.
@410 Blaicklight, Kelly on the election coverage?
THAT IS APPALLING. But then again its only channel 7.
RE tdt @347.
Very consistent results of being close on the opposition primary but 2% plus over on the government primary, including ALP in 96.
The point is that the ALP has done absolutely nothing wrong this campaign.
“Kevin has had his turn,
I am ready to serve this nation”
Julia Gillard, 25th November 2007
Alpal (401) Good point. Neither Nielsen or Morgan have shown any lessening of the ALP primary over the past six weeks. It will be interesting to see the Newspoll primary later tonight or tomorrow morning. Last time they had it at 46%.
I wonder if seven will invite sheik hillay
Has anyone considered the fact that if the ALP actually lose, then its hard to imagine a scenario where they could actually win short of the Coal imploding. They have run a perfect campaign. Kind of scary really.
Anyway 79 seats to the ALP, you heard it here first.
Nice concession, tabby cat…
You haven’t given up on your Libs 150 seat prediction already have you Tabitha?
Swing Lowe: My Monte Carlo simulation had 52/48 at 89% chance of an ALP win, 2% for a LNP win (including a 75 seat minority government), and 9% of the ALP with 74/75 seats.
Try this for size!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_zoXi0JYmmU
Ron Brown
My exclusive research shows that you have gained 55% this morning on the crucial question of “who is the most annoying poster?”.
ALP primary drop without a corresponding LNP rise just means Greens 1st prefs, and straight back to ALP (less $2.70).
Me, Im chillin’, never illin’.
All hail the Kruddmeister General!
What is happening with the FF primary vote – in both Galaxy and Morgan it has gone up 2% (which seems to be where the Labor primary is going).
Very unusual (particularly as FF has barely campaigned this election).
BV,
Have to agree with you there…
“Very unusual (particularly as FF has barely campaigned this election).”
Yes they have – it has just been a counterintuitive campaign – trying to wedge families with a ‘we’re conservative but love smut’ line.
“Julia Gillard launches shock leadership challenge after landslide election win”
CASSIDY JUST SAID TOMORROWS NEWSPOLL HAS LABOR 54.4! On chn2!
UNLESS HE MISPOKE< THATS WHAT HE SAID.
All the Nervous Nellies here should print off Swing Lowe’s #409 post and chant it over and over for the next 36 hours. Otherwise, just be relaxed and comfortable and put the beer in the fridge.
Julia Gillard, 25th November 2017
“Kevin has had his turn,
I am ready to serve this nation”
#440: Lies! I’ll believe it when I read it in the paper!
Ron, where is the extra primary coming from then in the national figure? It’s possible it’s all in Labor held seats but unlikely.
Barry Cassidy getting his revenge on Rudd by spouting Andrew Bolt!
He said Newspoll is out tomoorrw and that shows Labor 54…..
Now he may have mispronounced as he was talking about a number of polls.
Nostradamus you should already know the result.
Put it in a nice and vague quatrain for us will you.
Sweeeeet. Downer is going to be on Insiders on Sunday morning. Not to be missed!!! (Penny Wong also will be on).
A Newspoll representative on ABC radio news at 12.00 pm predicted a cliffhanger. No actual numbers yet.
Cassidy said Rudd “fell short” of showing he was a good alternative PM, but didn’t make any mistakes.
Its been a strange election. A few people I know who I was convinced would be voting Rudd have changed back to Howard. But on the other hand a good friend of mine who has always voted liberal will be voting for Rudd. So I really don’t know.
Commonsense tells me it should be around 54/46, but I have been so disappointed in the past that I can see a possibility of an upset. Just a possibility mind you. If it was close, Labor should squeak in.
I mentioned a week ago, that a staffer had told me that Goldstein was a possibility for a win, albeit still a very tough one to get over the line. Robb wouldn’t have done himself any favours since then with his hopeless media appearances on the Kelly and 13 ineligible ALP members affairs.
I am somewhat heartened by all these indicators that seats that the ALP shouldn’t even be contemplating winning are contests.
Hopefully, tomorrow night is a short night. I can’t bear the thought of having to wait for WA results to come in.
But that’s what he siad, I shit you NOT.
LTEP 416: “I bet you Coalition supporters were quite nervous before ‘96, particularly given ‘93. Or they should’ve been in any case.”
Not the coalition supporters I talked to, because
— Howard wasn’t Hewson (Rudd isn’t Latham)
— unlike ‘93, which was a horror show, in ‘96 they had run a virtually flawless campaign (ditto Labor ‘04 and ‘07)
— unlike ‘93, on the election eve in ‘96 the polls had them well in front (ditto Labor ‘04 and ‘07)
Did he? I was watching and I didn’t hear him say that.
Cassidy say Bolt is right that the electorate wants to change the PM, not the government. NO basis for this “wisdom” has ever been given.
Tabitha (426) Good to see you are finally conceding defeat. And for the record, most of us Labor supporters would be very happy to have Julia as our Prime Minister.
“Sweeeeet. Downer is going to be on Insiders on Sunday morning. Not to be missed!!! (Penny Wong also will be on).”
Oh yes! I hope I’m not too hungover to see the soupuss berating Australia for embracing a showoff. Merci Alex!
The symbol of longevity
Prevails in the south seas.
Remember that Egyptian fable
Again comes to pass.
There you go punters – Newspoll and Morgan to win the guernsey this time. Both about right on 54.5. Galaxy and ACN’s turn to spend 3 years in doghouse.
Did somebody say LANDSLIDE?
What did you hear then Ashley?????
K. Jin – Re: the Wall Street crash and the Great Depression. The crash was not the ’cause’ of the depression, but certainly didn’t help. The depression was a product of collapsing aggregate demand resulting in price deflation, resulting high unemployment and wage deflation, and entrenchment of a cycle of reducing agg demand, more unemployment and so on. The crash was a concatentation of a collapse in confidence resulting from the recognition that the ‘real’ economy wasn’t travelling well, which was reinforced by widespread margin lending, which left many people exposed. The depression endured for so long because governments didn’t understand that prices needed to rise and would only do so if demand increased – as Keynes pointed out. The conventional wisdom had it that fiscal retrenchment (cutting government spending to balance the budget) would result in recovery. This, of course, was nonsense, as even the Libs would probably say (if Treausry had the nous to tell them). A collapse such as that of 1929 would be very unlikely to have similar consequences today but would reflect to some extent concerns about the nature of actual economic activity. Our problem is not that Wall St goes south but that Chinese or Indian demand growth slows markedly or is stopped. Will this happen?
Australia wasn’t travelling well in the late 1920s and certainly didn’t go well into the 1930s but appears to have suffered somewhat less than many parts of the USA. Which is not to say it wasn’t terrible. The problem with stock markets and stuff is that they provide a singlepoint to focus on, and their importance as signals of economic activity are over-rated. IMHO
Scenario:
Libs scrape over the line but Howard loses Bennelong. (Onyer Max)
All hail PM Pete! In only 1 more sleep.
If that don’t put the frighteners on the indians, I don’t know what will.
Cassidy repeats Howard’s new slogan that “Country is heading in right direction, so don’t change government”. Gary Morgan will be puffed up that Team Howard has borrowed his basis for claiming huge “soft” vote for Labor in Morgan Poll.
LEFTY, Maybe Cassidy was referring to Morgan? But said Newspoll?????????
The dream scenario is Howard winning Bennelong and Costello losing Higgins.
31 hours till the polls close along the Eastern seaboard.
Galaxy poll: bringing market research services to Channnel 31 viewers, nationally.
For f***’s sake, what did Cassidy say? (Not what you think he meant…)
Gerr, Ive heard other rumours that Newspoll is 54.
But yes, I suppose, lets wait for confirmation.
I am sure Cassidy said Newspoll was 60:40, LOL
nostrils
dont you mean “when the boat comes in”
ps great TV show with wonderful ditty “when the boot coms inn”
for gerr where did you hear that 54 percent.
Damn it, I was trying to read pollbludger comments at the same time so wasn’t paying 100% attention. I thought he was just talking about the poll average he’d done this morning.
Anyone got Cassidy’s phone number?
Ron Brown,
WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THIS?!?!
Has Gary Morgan got anything to say?!?!?!
Ashley,
I couldn’t tell whether Cassidy’s 54.4 % was the Insiders program’s running composite or tomorrow’s Newspoll.
He said somehting like
there are big poll discrepancies with galaxy and morgan with Newspoll due out tomorrow the last poll and that shows Lab 54.4′
Thats the gist of what he said.
Now what he MEANT could be something else entirely.
That;s ALL I know. Did anyone TAPE IT?
tdt @ 347
Nice data. The thing I notice out of that is that ACN seem to overestimate the vote for the incumbent government by around 2.5% pretty consistently. Would be good to see if that trend goes back before 96. It would make some sort of sense to see an incumbency bias in polling close to an election even when they are about to cop a hiding like in 96.
They seem to get the opposition primary right to well inside the MOE though.
I’ll just cross my fingers that tomorrow night we’ll see ACN has again overestimated the government by 2.5% and got the challenger within a % of correct. Vive la Annihilation!
Those Morgan polls also always said that everyone thought that the ALP was going to win.
Maybe that’s why they thought the country was going in the right direction.
The question is also ridiculously biased.
“Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”
Generally the right direction or seriously in the wrong direction! Sound symetric to any one?
Hey guys I am cleaning out the study and came across a letter to me from:
Kevin Rudd MP
Leader of the opposition
Think it might be worth some money 1 day as you will never see that name and title printed together. What do you think?
OTOH, check this. http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/23/2099148.htm
Suggests Newspoll is close (or maybe just in margies)
Interesting Scenario:
NSW 3.9% swing (52/48 2PP to ALP)
SA 6.4% swing (52/48 2PP to ALP)
QLD 9.1% swing (52/48 2PP to ALP)
WA 2.0% swing TO LNP (57.4/42.6 to LNP)
Vic no swing (51/49 to LNP)
Tas no swing (54.2/45.8 to ALP)
ACT no swing (61.5/48.5 to ALP)
NT no swing (52.1/47.9 to ALP)
Outcome 3.3% 50.6 2PP – 77 ALP, 71 LNP, 2 IND
Bottom line: Its all about QLD, NSW and SA
CLdeF 461 – Also, in Australia, we were f…ed over by the Bank of England which controlled our export prices. This made the effects of the Depression in Australia worse than they needed to be.
Of course, I just wrote the essay above to take my mind of things such as rumours of Newspolls showing the mythical narrowing, as elusive, I still believe, as the Medusa (aka Helen Coonan). But Swing Lowe @ 409 talk good sense.
you people make me laugh… seriously.
Yeah he did say something about poll average, but he was SO convoluted that What he said sounded like tomorrow Newspoll is 54.4 but he could have meant anything. He’s on crack I think.
Nuff said.
perhaps he said “new poll”. I’ll have to wait another 110minutes for the midday news in WA.
He said the poll average he’d done this morning showed Labor on 54.4 (or was it 54.5). If he also said that Newspoll was showing 54.4 then I missed it (sorry).
Howard’s spending his last campaigning day in Leichhardt, which is on 8.8%. In other words, they’ve drawn a line under 8.8%. Everything under that, presumably, is gone. This equates to 90+ to Labor.
I say again though: If Newspoll was very close, we’d be getting figures today.
My guess: its 54-46, but closer in marginals (allowing the spin)
Well, that was moronic… Guess we’re going to have to wait for Agenda at 4:15 to find out what’s going on…
what about those in SA – they get it in 15 mins
Dear Labor friends. Take a deep breath, Take another one. Good. Now relax that in the knowledge that Howard will loose big & as well loose to Maxine, most of his cabinet & even the respect of the Liberal party.
It wont happen over night, BUT it will happen…probably Saturday night !!
Why would Newspoll publish a 54.4 result? Wouldn’t they just round it to 54 like usual?
I seriously don’t think it’s going to be higher than 53 as they’ve indicating a tightening will be shown.
True – who is in SA? I know ShowsOn is there, but I’m not sure if he’s around…
Come on, Cassidy is still one of the good guys. He has a media role to play and is also playing the ‘keeping a lid on it’ role.
Looks like we’ll have to wait for Lateline.
Not really Mad Professor… he was also in Moreton earlier on (2.2% I think).
I did my own polling
I’ve come across many friends, friends’ relative who say they will vote for Rudd this time. Those people have no interest in politics at all, I can assure you.
Reason? Howard has been there for too long. It’s time for others…
A fair go for all? I guess. The mood for change is so great.
If Howard’s ever sorry / apology for anything at all. It must be that he did not step down at the right time.
David Speers (Soggy Biscuit Boy One) on Sky has predicted an ALP
win with a 5 seat majority. Any ideas on how a 5 seat majority can
be had in a 150 seat chamber?
As posted above, O’Shanessy is saying Newspoll shows it will be very close. But I think that’s on the basis of marginal seat polling:
——–
Martin O’Shanessy says that, based on a poll to be published tomorrow, the result is certain to be a cliffhanger.
“I think we might find it very very close in those key marginal seats that we have to see and there may be a lot of recounts and protests around the edges,” he said.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/23/2099148.htm
A polls analyst from Newspoll is expecting tomorrow’s federal election to be an extremely close contest and says it could be a week before a definitive result emerges.
Martin O’Shanessy says that, based on a poll to be published tomorrow, the result is certain to be a cliffhanger.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/23/2099148.htm
Sorry maybe its me….maybe it was that crack I had earlier.
Flaneur @ 499
You’d need an odd number of independents . . . or a number of odd independents
Flaneur,
That would come about from a 76-71-3 result. Which is odd, because I only expect there to be 2 independents in the next Parliament.
According to Antony Green’s calculator the Coalition need 49.5 to form a majority.
Labor need 51.5, anything in between would be a hung parliament. So the lower end of the MOE from the Galaxy poll would need to be achieved for the Govt to retain office. If Galaxy turns out to be the best of the final polls for the Coalition this would seem highly improbable.
Looks like Newspoll is going to be 53-47 national, but line-ball on a marginal seat analysis.
Actually, yes LTEP.
IMHO It’s probably 53 in newspoll, with marginals down around 51.5.
We all know newspoll: how to explain the non-leak? totally out of character.
My guess: It aint that good overall for Rodent (ie better for ALP than galaxy) , but can still be spun in the marginals. hence the spin with no details.
Talking about cliff hangers in the marginals is a load of sh*t – he can say it look close in the marginals but to be predicting recounts on the basis of the sample sizes we have been seeing is clearly just this guy talking out his a*se
CLoF @ 461
Don’t forget that back then the average mortgage lasted for three years. When incomes started dropping the default rates skyrocketed ensuring a glut of houses in a market that couldn’t afford to buy them. This led to mass bankruptcies and a hell of a lot of bad debt on bank books.
From the Daily Telegraph here in Sydney (excuse the suburb and street references, they are part of the quote)
“Signs Everywhere?”
“An omen? One commuter gleefully reports a large election poster of a smiling John Howard on the grass verge at the Cheltenham M2 entrance had blown over on Wednesday night and was lying forlornly in the rain yesterday morning.”
How they measure majorities? Is it how many more than half of the chamber you have? (ie, 80 seats = 5 seats more than 75 = 5 seat majority)…
Or
Is it measured by how many seats more than all of the other parties you have (eg. 80 ALP seats = 70 seats to all the others = 10 seat majority???)
Which is it?
Option B, ND
I don’t usualy get so aggressive on this forum, but really… how can he predict that some results won’t be known for any period of time on the basis of polling with such small per seat sample sizes. it’s just rubbish
My predictions [nice timing mikem - I was just putting through a few calculations...]
I had two predictions – one being conservative [no pun intended] and the other being an outrageous win to the Alp. Since I havent had time to trawl the 2000+ comments made here in the past couple of days – I don’t know what everyone is punching in – in terms of numbers – so feel free to tell me what you guys think…
Numbers Put into ABC Calculator:
Area: Swing: 2PP:
NSW 5.2%[ALP] 53.3%[ALP]
VIC 4.3%[ALP] 53.3%[ALP]
QLD 6.6%[ALP] 50.5%[LIB]
WA 3.4%[LIB] 58.8%[LIB]
SA 5.4%[ALP] 51.0%[ALP]
TAS 3.0%[ALP] 57.2%[ALP]
ACT 2.1%[ALP] 63.6%[ALP]
NT 3.5%[ALP] 55.6%[ALP]
OVERALL 4.3%[ALP] 51.6%[ALP]
Seats:
COALITION: 73
ALP: 75
INDEPS: 2
LIB-GAINED ALP-GAINED
COWAN [WA] BOOTHBY [SA]
SWAN [WA] HERBERT [QLD]
BRAND [WA] DOBELL [NSW]
BASS [TAS]
SOLOMON [NT]
BLAIR [QLD]
BENNELONG [NSW]
PAGE [NSW]
BRADDON [TAS]
EDEN-MONARO [NSW]
MORETON [QLD]
LINDAY[NSW]
PARRAMATTA [NSW] (Notionally a gain)
WAKEFIELD [SA]
KINGSTON [SA]
MAKIN [SA]
BONNER [QLD]
MACARTHUR [NSW] **
**On my numbers – the calculator says Wentworth to fall to Labor…
I disagree and instead choose Macarthur to supplement the current
numbers. If I was choosing for a one-seat majority – I would
say La Trobe would be the next gain after that.
Election Dark Horse: Calare to Alp.
oops the top three wa ones are lib gains – the rest are alp ones
ND – depends on the commentator I guess
ND: I think it’s the second one, because it’s based on the number of votes a bill passes by. Since everyone votes by party lines, that becomes the measure of a majority.
It will take many years to unravell the Howardisation of the country after labor win. Every government board member, high court judge, notarary, kindergarten committe etc.
He has stacked everything that he possibly can in Australia.
So says Centaur_007 (a blast from the past)
O’Shaughnessy is a nitwit. There may well be recounts going on, but the chance of a recount determining the result of an election is incredibly low. We’ll know the results of the election (one way or the other) by Sunday morning.
Of course Newspoll will be spruiking its poll as a cliff hanger. They’re in it to sell newspapers and promote themselves – not declare the election already done and dusted.They’ll hype it as much as they can and keep all of the Liberal supporters interested as long they can.
Over on Ozelection forum is “Newspoll 54.5/45.5 ABC midday news.”
What is the definition of a marginal? Hypothetically, if you wanted to produce a result that looked positive for the coailtion, you would say , well,
Swing is around 6%.
Marginal is things held by 5% or less.
6% +5% is 11%. We’ll poll all seats where Coalition won in 2004 by between 4% and 11%.
Hey presto – the Coalition wins about 48% on this poll……
522:
No, that was the Barrie Cassidy’s poll average figure – I did a double take as well. He wasn’t very clear.
Let’s make this clear: A movement from 54/46 to 53/47 (or to 54.5/45.5) in the Newspoll means squat – it’s all within the MOE and indicates no trend back to the Coalition (or towards Labor).
For Newspoll to indicate a trend to Coalition, it would probably need to be 51.5/48.5 to be unambiguous – and there’s been no indication of such a poll…
centaur_007 and many years to remove the economic superhero myth created by howar [the book titled Ozonomics makes good reading on this issue]
I’d swear that Cassidy was talking about the new poll average he calculated this morning.
Surely there’s no way that Newspoll could be pretending that it was a cliff-hanger if they had 54.5 on national? Even if Labor had a lower swing in the marginals they would pick up quite a few safe seats with a 54.5% result.
Over on Ozelection forum is “Newspoll 54.5/45.5 ABC midday news.”
HUZZAH!!!! (provisionally, subject to confirmation)
‘Close’ my ar8e.
PO at 526.
I have a copy autographed by Wayne Swann
If O’shanessy is saying its going to be very close based on the marginals then he’d have to be saying that with an overall national result of (at the least) 52-48. There’s no way he can have a 53 or 54 for Labor in front of him and say it will be a cliffhanger. Then again the standard of poll analysis by the major pollsters is usually so bad it wouldn’t be out of the question.
If Oshanessy is saying that its gonna be a cliffhanger with a newspoll result of 52 or above then he can only be subscribing to the view that the swings will be contained to the labor safe seats. All the newspoll (and other polling) state by state breakdowns up to date have indicated that this isn’t the case. In fact the most recent breakdown had labor winning approx 100 seats..Things can’t have changed that quickly in a week…particularly given the succession of gaffs the libs have had..
THe only conclusion you can draw is that O’shanessy is full of sh.t. Either way I’m sick of having to deal with the stupid spin these guys put on things to satisfy their corporate masters.
Rudd press conference on TV right now. Someone asked him how he will spend tomorrow. Answer – “I am handing out HTV cards all over Brisbane in support of our various ALP candidates until polls close at 6pm.”
Watch out folks, coming to a polling place near you
Plus, as someone pointed out earlier, it would be unusual for them to not round it down to 54.
Even if there is a swing back to the Libs, big deal.
Its just one more poll amongst a hundred.
Its the trend that counts.
Some good indications of how it will go.
Humphreys the lib ACT senator has conceded and is reduced to begging for votes, this in itself is historic, (not the begging), it means a huge swing in the senate and never before result. Though it is only the ACT and the senate the swing and the mood to do this is historic.
Nairn in Eden-Monaro has conceded, this is a bell-wether seat.
Barnaby has conceded.
Hockey knows he is in huge trouble on a seat of 10% in a seat never held by labor.
Hemmingway says an article shows Gash in Gilmore (9.5%) may be in trouble bt could be expectd to survive.
The desperation of the liberal candidates and their ads says it all, they know what the mood is and what the result will be better than any pollster.
No way will it be close, peoples biggest worry is if Howard gets in he has no restraints as he still has control of the senate for the next 6 months.
The libs supporters look at every close poll like a farmer looking at every wispy cloud in the sky hoping for rain.
I agree Michael.. complete Rubbish… any of the marginal polling is complete rubbish and not worth getting worried about given the MOE’s.. IF… the LNP had at any stage been better than 50/50 in the marginals, even with the MOE’s, I would have been worried, but this has not happened…. not even 1 outlier….. it also means.. on the basis of what the overall 2pp will be, that there are massive swings on elsewhere.. which we all know to be the case and is why seats like Ryan and Petrie are going to Labor… it is probably right that the marginals will end up around 51/49… they are the marginals, that is the way it works… but the flow on effect if that is the case is some really big swings elsewhere…. .QLD, NSW… and guess what… it is all going to Labor…
Alex McD – indeed!
OK, this is the final time Ill run this line, but I believe it self-evident:
Newspoll would be leaking like a sieve if the overall result was close to Galaxy. Thats what would help Rodent at this stage.
But it isnt close: so the next best way to help Rodent is to pretend it is on Friday, then spin it Saturday as a comment ‘about the marginals’.
Left e
If thats the case and newpoll has Labor on 54, O’shanessey needs be permanently muzzled until the end of the election.
centaur @ 529 – ouch ownage
nice one – perhaps that should be a new textbook to be studied in schools around australia now all run by alp? 
Arbie Jay, Humphries hasn’t conceded he’s just trying to use ‘lose expectations’ to bolster his vote in the Senate.
Incidentally on talkback radio yesterday there appeared to be a fair bit of support for Kerrie Tucker, although couched in “Humphries is a good Senator and I think he deserves to be re-elected”.
#522 They look like the Morgan figures to me.
Latest betting market update from Simon Jackman’s site. In the last 24 hours, probability of an ALP win has increased from 77.4% to 78.1%, and the expected ALP seat count has shot up from 81.33 to 81.98. So no need for too many nerves. I think it will be 53/47.
The key seats to watch on Saturday night will be LaTrobe, Page and Robertson. We can expect Bass, Braddon, Macquarie, Lindsay (where the Liberals gave us a glimpse into their evil black hearts, at least of their extreme elements), Eden-Monaro & Dobell to all fall quickly, but that only takes us towards hung parliament territory. But if 1 or 2 of these 3 key seats above are falling, it’s just about all over. And if even others are in play, like Deakin, Corangamite and Bennelong, the ALP is heading for a large majority.
Seems to be a big shift in the Bennelong odds in the last couple of days. Howard is now out to $1.72 on one site.
This is a fabulous site, which I’ve only discovered in the last few weeks. It’s killing my productivity at work!
This is a worry!!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/23/2099148.htm
If you select the marginals properly then of course it’s close.
The argument is circular
So far as I understand NO POLLS have been done on the collection of seats held by either ALP or LNP by 5% or less.
Instead, all polls have been on LNP seats with various small margins on the basis that there is a swing to the ALP.
Of course these SELF-SELECTED seats show a closer result than the overall position. They have to. And the more aggressively you self-select the marginals the more likely it is the result is close.
Arguably, if you select the marginals properly, the result is 50-50.
Pancho @ 495
If you think Cassidy is one of the “good guys”, why did he say Rudd “fell short” of showing that he’s a “credible” alternative PM and that Rudd is just in the right position to “exploit” voters wanting to throw out Howard (but not the government)?
To be quoting what Andrew Bolt said many weeks ago would suggest Cassidy is going to jump ship to commercial media.
The Insiders show has been pro Coalition all the campaign. Even the supposed segment with “typical” voter groups always had a majority of them voting for the Coalition. Why not just get two people on each side? To make it worse, the panel is News Ltd. dominated, and the Fairfax representative is usually a light weight like Crabb who is there for comic relief while the blokes bloviate unabated.
Whatever the outcome tomorrow, Cassidy’s now a “rat in the ranks”. Penny Wong’s on Sunday. She’s great, but that’s the highest level Labor Party guest Cassidy is getting for a long time.
543 – I’m still amused how people can look at 1 poll as a worry.
Its just one more random sample.
Its not like suddenly 2 million people changed their votes over night for no reason.
Kate Ellis for PM (543) Refer my 521.
This is stupid – every marginal seats poll has Labor up (and winning seats).
So, again I ask, why is everyone freaking out?
O’Shaughnessy is a hanging chad…
And on Sunday it will rain, a biblical deluge ordered up by the new PM….
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22806538-5001021,00.html
Did any of our London BP’s get polled by these folks?
@519 Centaur
EXCEPT THE WOMEN, THE BASTARD!
(sorry its the crack)
Swing Lowe said:
Fair enough, though I had thought “a majority” was based on the number
of seats (in the HoR) that support the goverment. Either the independents
support (formally or informally) the government, or they don’t.
I think dyspnoeia may be the closest to the truth with
After cleaning the coffee off the monitor, another option came to mind:
perhaps he expects an odd number of empty seats at the first test of confidence.
Now who’d be most likely to to chuck a sicky on the first sitting day?
Kroger reckons that the swing is going to happen in safe labor seats and that local member recognition is going to pay off at the ballot box.
ROFL!
Really interesting spin in all the MSM – since the Galaxy and also in anticipation of the Newspoll. But it is just spin.
Take these from MSM over last 24 hours:
“Narrowing/photo finish/cliffhanger/extremely close/recounts/knife edge/anyones guess/too close to call/may take weeks to know the winner” etc
Got the picture?
Now to another interpretation…
The two horse race is reaching the final 50 metres and the nags are supposedly as close as that described above. But the bookies are still offering $4.50 for Howard and nobody’s taking it!
Sound a bit fishy? Sure does. If party insiders believe they are in with a chance, the 7/2 on offer would be gone in a flash. It speaks volumes.
If the Coalition firm to less than $2.50 in the next 24 hours I’ll sit up and take notice.
But until that happens… it’s all spin.
What rubbish. ” A polls Analyst..”. They don’t even say who he or she is. Could be one of Howard’s kids as far as we know. God, this election is getting stupid. People believing all sorts of rumours and stuff.
Centrebet is at:
1. LABOR 1.21
2. COALITION 4.50
if the bookies plan on keeping their recently famed reputation as “always getting it right” and it is going to be “close” they’re had better be some movement soon.
As the odds stand and the amount of money apparently wagered to date, there would need to be bets the size of the chip on Alexander Downer’s shoulder to move the odds in favour of the Coalition in time.
Disgust at the polls
A week ago , consistent with 9 months of polling Labor was to have a landslide
per the Polls
SINCE THEN ,
1/ the news of Howard’s $281 million political TV adds is disclosed
2/ the “Lindsay seat” race scandal has broken
VS
3/ stronger ’scare ads’ by the Liberals of ‘big problems in world economies’
YET the Labor PRIMARY vote with Galaxy and Morgan only this week drops
by 2% in both Pollsters Polls
make sense ?
“522
Hunstundho Says:
November 23rd, 2007 at 12:25 pm
Over on Ozelection forum is “Newspoll 54.5/45.5 ABC midday news.”
SEE It wasn’t just crack induced!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Cross posted from OzPolitics referring to Simon Jackman’s analysis
ABC link http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2098902.htm
Will everyone stop worrying
Has Howard actually said they will win yet? He did so during the final days in the last campaign to warn people not to lodge a protest vote.
If things weren’t narrowing – and particularly if ACN were even half-right – why would Rudd be sacrificing votes to the Greens in the Senate (and possibly the House) by attacking asylum seekers as in the Oz’s headline today?
If you want to know what Cassidy really thinks go to: http://www.businessspectator.com.au Click on Spectators and scroll to his post dated yesterday. He is predicting a record ALP win – and does a brilliant analysis of why it will beat Hawke’s 53.2 record in 83. Its the best argument I’ve read.
Martin O’Shanessy hasn’t even said in that article that the election will be close… he has said there will be recounts in marginals..
“I think we might find it very very close in those key marginal seats that we have to see and there may be a lot of recounts and protests around the edges,” he said.
that is all he said… the rest is the journalist paraphrasing.. if they are going to quote him then quote him, but of course that is not what he said.. all he said was that the marginals will be tight… big surprise!!… spin spin spin people .. relax… it is very concievable that the headline figure is still 54 or so and O”shanessy hasn’t said otherwise
Well done alpal
Would everyone stop telling everyone to stop worrying.
Look, ACN aside, there has been a narrowing – you just can’t refute that. Will it be enough? We’ll know tomorrow.
Pan down to “Today’s Cartoon” and look at it. It is a classic
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/opinion/
562 Graeme – Rudd is shoring up WA.
LMFAO at worried posters on this thread.
If you could see inside Liberal HQ now think about how it looks…
Hemmingway, I read those comments as an annoyed but impressed analysis of Rudd’s tactics. And also a toeing the line on the idea that it is not all over and going to be close. I’d be very surprised if Labor people attempt to bar Insiders. And I would suggest that Labor tacticians would be happier with his assesment that it will be tight rather than predicting a blowout.
PJK
And on Sunday it will rain, a biblical deluge ordered up by the new PM….
Just like Hawke in 83.
Parra
Some other options is leader of the opposition, I don’t think it will be Costello as he is damaged goods, Turnball could lose his seat, Nelson will probably have a nervous breakdown after the result, Abbott is unpalatable so it looks like Dolly as a fill-in leader.
slackboy @ 510 – yes, good point. Lots of things have changed since then! I guiess I was trying to suggest that the real economy is not the stock market, despite the attention it gets, and that it gets that attention because it’s a simple thing to report on and for journos to get worked up over. Just like polling that shows movement within MoE by dodgy pollsters.
Misty… why worry? Worse case we carry on the same way we have been for the last 11 years. We’ve survived this far and we’ll continue to move on no matter what happens tomorrow.
There’s absolutely nothing to fret about. In another 3 years we’ll lodge another vote and then after that another vote in the next 3 years. All we can do is wait…
Well I refute it. So there.
Why is Howard in Leichhardt Safe, Liberal 10.3%, the day before an election?
For fun?
For a good morning walk?
He likes FNQ?
Come on guys, stop worrying, its over.
Cassidy getting Penny Wong on sunday will no doubt trigger another tantrum. No wonder he’s out there putting Rudd down.
Any show that has Piers Ackerman, Bolte and Milne as regulars deserves not one iota of respect. Why would Rudd appear with a guy (ackerman) who’s been relentlessly trying to smear him with the cover up of a rape 15 years ago.
Hopefully next time Rudd will offer up his personal assistance as a guest on the show. Get Barry in a real lather.
ruawake, he was in Moreton earlier. Of course he’s going to visit a range of seats in the same state.
That’s a very patient approach you have there LTEP, but I’m fed up with waiting!
I’m 28 and I’ve never had the pleasure of seeing the party I voted for actually win the damned thing.
Alpal, thanks for the link. That puts Cassidy’s comments to the masses in perspective.
Re 562,
Graeme Says:
Good question Graeme, I have been wondering the same thing. I would beg to differ with the use of the word “attacking” though. While I was disappointed to see that story in the Australian, Rudd would never ever demonize asylum seekers the way that Howard has and does. Rudd is not a racist. I am a left leaning Labor voter and had always planned to vote Greens in the Senate. After seeing that headline though, I am voting Greens 1 ALP 2 in the HOR as opposed to 1 ALP 2 Greens. Just bloody glad that I didn’t do prepoll or postal vote as my vote would already be gone now.
Misty -it’s ben a long time between drinks for all of us.
1996 is little more than a drunken blur now… a devastating, drunken blur.
tomorrow night is going to rival ‘93 as a highlight of my life!!! and i’m not even a labor party member
(sad, i know)
Pancho,
Every point you make is correct. I’m stressing his anger at Rudd for blowing off his program, which certainly was a huge whack at Cassidy’s status as an “Insider”. But saying Rudd is not a “credible” alternative PM is way out of line.
Well there’s nothing much you can do about it Misty. Get out there and campaign if you want, otherwise there’s nothing you can do but lodge your one vote and worrying won’t change a single thing. They either win or they don’t win. The sky will not fall in either way.
Sean, I agree that Piers has no business being on the show though. And I also hear that Insiders are beginning to get more and more complaints about his performances. Perhaps he’ll be cut after the weekend.
LTEP
Morton fair enough but a safe seat on a 10%+ margin, that takes a few hours out of his day flying?
Leichhardt must be on a knife edge. The 10% swing in Qld is on.
You don’t need to be possum to conclude that the smallest swings will be where there is the highest concentration of Labor voters and the biggest swing will be where there are the lowest concentration of Labor voters [simply because there is a greater pool of non-Labor voters to swing]. Thus if there is a national swing on then safe Labor seats will swing the least and safe Liberal seats the most. That is just logical. Then we have Possum’s analysis that quanitified it.
Kroger must be on denial drugs.
It won’t be a cliff-hanger. We also have Rudd and Howard spending time in safe Liberal seats. You would expect Rudd to be wandering around marginal liberal seats all week if he were in the least bit concerned about that.
Cassidy’s show is essentially a morning rumour mill with political flavour. So of course we all watch it, it’s like going for brunch at whichever salon is fashionable in Forrest or Red Hill this year. But the regulars on it (Bolt, Ackerman particularly) are frequently cheerleaders as oposed to commentators, which is just boring. We all know what Piers is going to say, a puppet in a fat suit would be about as informative. Of course, Lenore Taylor and some others are exceptions.
Cassidy’s tanty about Rudd not doing his show says it all for me. Very unprofessional, drawing attention to the fact that you don’t have an audience worth turing up for (244,000 last Sunday I believe. Rove was about 2.4 mill).
Rudd has for a long time been involved with a refugee settlement and assistance charity service in Bris. a long time before he became op leader.
RU
Only thing I’m worried about is the bottle of Croobyar Cup 1985 that I was going to open tomorrow night.
I’ve got a good idea what it will taste like and thinking I should open it ealry so have something decent to drink later.
As to how worried the libs are, their bloggers are pushing the indecisive angle now of voting for independents, nice angle as most flow back to the libs through preferences.
But it does show how worried they are that they are too scared push their own brand.
I just saw my first real live politician today!
JOhn Howard doing the shopping tour of Castletown, Townsville. Seems a strange choice for his last campaign day seeing that Peter Lindsay is almost certainly stuffed, but I was happy to note that his retardedly huge media scrum does not seem to have in any way diminished. My girl friend and I were trapped for about 5 minutes unable to get our groceries to our car, with her remarking “I’m glad he didn’t try to shake my hand, I would have felt guilty”
Misty and Michael. dont be ashamed of it. i reckon after a few cold ones i might even need to wipe a tear away… especially if so happens that Rudd makes a victory speech.
Ron Brown (558) The Morgan (phone poll) primary for the ALP was 45% at the beginning of the campaign. It’s 44.5% now. No 2% drop there.
Kina – Kroger is a professional denier. He always says the coalition is doing well, everything’s under control, no worries, excellent campaign – and then five minutes after the result is clear starts shovelling blame on whichever factional enemy he most hates this year. Witness Vic state elections one after another.
ruawake says : “Come on guys, stop worrying, its over”
Sorry, gunna worry right up until Anthony tells me its over.
Although I suspect the we are looking at a planned combination
1) Push poll from Galaxy
2) Spin from Newspoll (the poll itself I trust)
3) Howard can say “the tide is turning” and rally all the troops
and thus get a sense of momentum in the final day.
29 hours to the start of the count
pod
Liberals
they are scared of the truth
they cant take the truth
so they fake the truth
strewth
I support Labor, the Canberra Raiders and the Hawthorn Hawks – so needless to say it has been a long wait since one of my teams has won the big one. My patience is wearing thin!
Grover ,
It’s your own fault for barracking for the Hawks.
Grover @ 596, believe me, it can happen. Cats won the flag(s); ALP will win the big one. This is the year!
Julie I think you are missing the game – Rudd is simply acting, to pick up those last middle/upper class voters in safe Liberal seats and it will work. These may be the ones that get a few extra seats over the line. All part of the game.
I wouldn’t be worried in anycase – Rudd has a great many good people around him that will stick to Labor principals.
Grover. I feel your pain
Im in WA and support FRemantle, Rabitohs and the alp
Although Paul K makes a good point @ 597
Slight move to the the Coal at centrebet if anyone is interested. 1.22/4.35
Grover you lucky b*stard.
I support the Demons.
Rudds speech will be worth watching, Howard will be as flat as a tack as he always is,no tears no emotion he was never one to inspire more of a drone.
As for the senate I think we get an idea of how it is going at the end of the night, but some of the more complex deals may mean not until later in the week.
Except for the ACT, Humphreys will probably be able to officially concede on the night, that initself will be historic.
GROVER
You’re not alone buddy. My three teams of choice as well…
RA – quelle tragique!
Grover during the late 80’s and early to mid 90’s you had more than your fair share of triumphs.
Ya… I’m on board too – 28, ALP and Freo Dockers
Interesting election coverage from the New York Times:
“Bush stalwart in Australia facing stiff opposition”
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/23/world/americas/23australia.html?ref=world
The share market seems to be holding its own today. No sign of Costello’s tsunami yet. Nothing to scare the horses.
Kroger is a fool. Maybe he’s got the graph upside down! In fact, some safe seats will swing big, maybe even 10+.
Did someone say they had a leak about newpoll for tommorow morning?
It’s Thanksgiving – not much of anything happening in markets.
It’s Thanks Giving Holiday in America so they’re on their own today.
reds, eels, blues. not much joy in that lot. (yeah i know the blues have the most flags but its past glories!)
Wall St closed tonight for Thanksgiving. Thanks be!
Closed last night.
But you’ve got the equivalent of the Melbourne Cup monday tonight.
Witht the public holiday one day away from the weekend, th “work” day is pretty soft….
Maybe we should start a market on when LTEP says after considering everything he has decided to stay with the safe pair of hands or go for an independent like Family first.
Actually i think there is a lot more people telling people not to worry than there are people worried. As far as I can tell not too many are worried.
So those worried about those worried please don’t worry about the worriers because there aren’t too many worrriers, really.
Kroger LOLger Ogre is as likely to have any credibility after this campaign as Costello has hope to become PM.
Just perusing the news sites – they are headlining stories that have little to do with the election. Election stories are ranking as second teir stories. news.com.au is running with a holiday giveaway and dogs being tasered on their front page. SMH is running with a story about Brad Pitt, BrisbaneTimes.com is all about TigerAirways. Only The Age is running the election as their main stories. Is the press ignoring the ‘narrowing’ and basically conceding that it is all but over?
I support the Dees too. And the Dragons. I’m convinced I’ll never see them win in my lifetime.
Raiders fan here too Grover.
I’ve decided to stay with a safe pair of hands or to go for an independent like Family First.
oh and the Brumbies.
Betting at Centrebet has ALP 1.22, LNP 4.35. Was 1.20/4.60 at one stage, looks like some punters are still hanging onto the LNP to retain office
Ltep, hahahaha. Good response.
Very, very senior Press Gallery journos who have been covering the campaign with links directly to Howard and Rudd ( and the campaigns) say privately this morning that it will be a huge Rudd win. They dismiss Galaxy out of hand.
Should I be worried that I’m not worried about the worriers worrying about the result?
Thanks RA @ 615. No meltdown overnight then? Too late anyway I guess …
LTEP,
May you be with the Lord in Heaven SOON.
Fear not – I’m a lifelong Cats fan and I think this is the year for the double! Same odds as the Grand Final too.
Misty stop telling people to stop telling people to stop errr.. worrying. And everyone STOP WORRYING
If you all just stop and think for a minute (ALP voters that is), the polls haven’t shifted all year, there is no ‘narrowing’, all the pundits and the betting agencies are predicting a massive ALP win, and even the News corp papers are getting on-side.
But I understand. Your head says yes it will happen, but your heart, like a jilted lover, cannot bring itself to believe. Answer this you nervous nellies. How many of you that are saying you can’t believe it will happen have gone out and bought champagne?
Of course the betting markets are going to move. There’s no way people could resist the odds on the Coalition with that Galaxy poll and the rumblings about Newspoll.
It means nothing, although I suppose they didn’t move for Labor in ‘04 even with the 50/50 poll.
TO HENRY BOWE
thanks mate for finding Morgan ’s figures in Morgan’s release
So the Morgan Summary is
2004 ‘national’ poll labor 47.3% TODAY 54.5% = +7.2%
2004 22 ‘marginals’ poll 46.3% TODAY 51.5% = +5.2%
The CONSISTENCY HERE IS that the marginals in both 2004 and 2007 are lower than the ‘National’ Poll
On a PRIMARY vote comparison , it would be interesting to know how CLOSE
Morgan was in 2004 with his 22 marginals
(although many question these ‘marginal’ polls value)
Simon Jackam has an heartening piece over at ABC Unleashed. In case no one has seen it…
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2098902.htm
Have just downloaded the ABC mobile application to my phone. Neat. Now I can get the early results while doing the last shift here in WA…
Someone at the gym this morning said ‘Would you give your new car to the P plater next door? That’s Rudd!’. Luckily I was doing boxing training so I decked him …
Misty – a lot of bloggers on this sight are looking for re-assurance against all the spin and downright bullshit from those with a vested interest in a close contest.
If that irritates you in some way, perhaps a good walk or some other physical activity might be best for you right now. (For what it’s worth, I can understand how you feel).
alpal @ 626
Thanks I need to read more posts like that.
I can’t begin to tell you how much a Rudd win means to me. It has got to happen. It has got to happen!
CL
What also gets me about the insiders – is the closed shop smugness of the aust poltical commetariat. We have one of the most narrowly concentrated media’s in the western world – with newslimited and fairfax pretty much dominating everything. In light of this the ABC, which should offer some kind of independant alternative, has a show that is exculsively populated by employees of these two organisations. So not only do I get confronted with Glen Milne during the week in the australian and on the weekend in the Sunday telegraph, I also get to hear his views again on the ABC.
The use of Paul Kelly, the sad and slightly comical oracle of news limited is also a joke. Given his self appointed status as editor at large and elder statesman of Aust journalism he doesn’t even have to come into the studio – they beam him in from on high, as though he has some kind of exulted status. As I said once before here, you expect a flurry of heralding trumpets to preceed his every pronouncement. Somebody should tell Barry that we’re confronted with this gooses heavily dubious offerings every week in the oz.
Can you imagine what kind of a show it would be if the ABC followed their charter and got some genuinely independant opinion from the broad aust community. Academics, business people. artists etc – all of them politically engaged. You might actually get some discussion on the substance of poltical ideas/policy instead of endless tactical analysis of who scored what political point where….
Favorite “wisdom from the punters” moment so far:
Chatting with someone at the pub on Monday. A committed Lib voter, but he said he was contemplating voting ALP this time. Why? He despises the WA State Govt, and thought a federal ALP win would start the cycle of state ALP governments being tossed out.
A correspondent called wantok posted this at Possum’s site.
Since the Canberra Times, though a pretty good dead-tree product, utterly fails to comprehend the online world (”of course we couldn’t put more than three stories a day online – we wouldn’t sell any papers!”), I feel entirely justified in posting today’s Possum article for those with no access to the dead-tree edition:
(page 9, two column feature in the election spread, complete with our favourite possum pic)
“Playing possum with polls and politics”
Jenna Price
Possum Comitatus is the nom de plume of a 33-year-old Queensland economist, and he has become the cult figure of election analysis this year; the star of the political blogweb with links from every major electoral analysis site in Australia.
His prediction? Labor will win 94 seats if there’s a uniform swing but is more likely to get 89. (wantok: that’s a bit out of date now isn’t it Poss?)
Possum only started full time in September this year with his website, Possum’s Pollytics, examining each poll and every statistic. This week, on the issuing of the NewsPoll, he wrote, “The ALP two-party-preferred vote is currently at its long-term, pre-Rudd trend.”
But he resisted the temptation to mention dogs or drovers.
Possum only recently graduated in economics and specialises in econometrics by training and profession, including polling data. (wantok: ooh, what a giveaway!)
“[But] I must say analysing politics and being able to have a bit of a laugh in the process of looking a bit deeper into the empirical reality of things is a far more interesting thing to do on a day-to-day basis.”
Possum’s Pollytics came out of the blue. He’d been involved in forums and posted the occasional chart but soon people were responding.
“I started getting more comments and more traffic and within a few weeks, I found that I’d become the accidental blogger,” he says.
The editor of Crikey, Jonathan Green, spotted him and offered him a regular gig.
Green said, “He’s particularly perceptive, highly literate and can present complex information in a lucid and concise way… he’s got a dab hand with a telling graph.”
Not all are so impressed. The veteran election commentator, Malcolm Mackerras says he won’t put Possum on his favourites because he doesn’t know who he is.
“I can’t correspond with someone who is anonymous,” he says. (wantok – Er, yes you can, Malcolm.)
The anonymity may not last long. Possum, of northern bayside Brisbane, says there have been a couple of journalists sniffing around, so for the record, he went to Wingham Primary, in northern NSW, then Wingham High; will marry his girlfriend of 14 years in April; plays beach volleyball and is hoping to make a living doing what Possum does – which may require decloaking.
But the people who matter know who he is – a news junkie who curls up at night with The Financial Review. He talks to people about numbers and figures all day and usually uses his real name.
A blogger at election website Poll Bludger, William Bowe, links to Possum because he says the quality of the work is outstanding. Where’s the rivalry?
“I’m a terrible person so it is a measure of his outstandingness that I am able to put my misanthropy to one side,” Mr Bowe said.
Even the academics are now citing him. The newly appointed professor of journalism at Monash University and director of the Australian Centre for Independent Journalism, Chris Nash, says Possum has forced journalists to examine the way they use statistics.
“He has become an essential point of reference for any journalist writing about the polls,” he said.
Comment by wantok — November 23, 2007 @ 10:36 am
I just watched Cassidy I think he meant the insiders average was whatever figure he said. 54.5 I think ALP. He just slightly mangled his delivery so it sounded like he said NewsPoll was 54.5.
It would be on News website by now if it hand been given out on national TV
Well, no, but I would give him the clapped out old banger…
s you are the king of poll blogs and we all thank you
howard must be sooooooooo desperate
here he is flapping in the wind annoying grannies at shopping centres
ABC radio said he was leaving townsville to go to another shopping centre
he thinks he is uncle arthur opening all these new shiny shopping centres
what a sad sad sad sight
Bennelong is narrowing:
RODENT 1.70
MAXINE 2.00
There are also the lingering superstitious/agencement beliefs that (i) hubris comes to those who are overconfident (you know, those whom the Gods seek to destroy they first make proud) and (ii) worrying changes things, since in the absence of anything else to do to influence events all that energy has to go somewhere.
Go and do some letterboxing, clean up the yard, ring up all your family and tell them to vote ALP, volunteer to do the HTVs, or whatever! Or in my case, do some bloody work …
Darn @637 – just what I am about to do.
Barry Cassidy – lol – the jilted lover.
I’ve decided to stay with a safe pair of hands or to go for an independent like Family First.
Probably the truest thing you’ve said on here LTEP.
Great comment, Sean (639). That is exactly what is wrong with The Insiders, and much of the ABC, particularly local radio, in Sydney anyway.
If/when Rudd is elected it should be re-named The Outsiders.
Where is Rudd today?
Arbie Jay I just can’t help myself. I’m a compulsive liar.
dammit, has anybody seen my car keys?
LTEP – 561 – yes, I have heard Howard say a number of times this week that he is going to win. That means he knows he is in real trouble.
KIna – 586 – Kroger must be on denial drugs or else he is very thick. I saw him on Lateline a few weeks ago sprouting that the swing is all in Labor seats and some safe Liberal seats, hence the poll figures. He should log on to Possum and have his thoughts clarified.
652
Lose the election please Says:
November 23rd, 2007 at 1:15 pm
Arbie Jay I just can’t help myself. I’m a compulsive liar.
and a liberal party troll to boot (around)
So you’re fine with Peirs ackerman?
Do you realize how many C02s that methane producing weatherballoon produces after a meal?
He could single handedly give Mars an atmosphere.
We’ll be there tomorrow night, warming up the engine:
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/cartoon/gallery/0,22068,5005046-5006054,00.html
Swing Lowe @ 548 “This is stupid – every marginal seats poll has Labor up (and winning seats). So, again I ask, why is everyone freaking out?”
I don’t know why SwingLowe
, but this indeed is good. It would stop Labor leaning folk from “playing” with their votes. Stop the dangerous sign of hubris. If everyone think “Labor will win no matter which way I vote”, it will be a disaster.
Every vote counts ladies and gentlemen. Your vote is very much needed and valuable to bring down Howard and his degrading government. [ranting stop
]
It can now be confirmed that Libs WERE trucked into Howards speech yesterday.
SMH says that “local ACT Liberals had to be press-ganged into attending. Their swine like behaviour astonished even the most hardened journalists. Led by the ACT Assembly’s Opposition Leader, Bill Stefaniak, and his deputy, Jacqui Burke, the Liberals cheered Howard’s most mundane points and hissed and harrumphed as the journalists hunted him down on the party’s Lindsay suicide bomber.”
Will LTEP finally reveal himself for the Liberal troll he’s really been all along?
Alex, did he say he will win or that he can win?
Howard Hater, I revealed it long ago. I’m a member of the NSW Right. In fact I’m John Howard.
Now that that’s out of the way we can stop wasting time talking about my political persuasions.
HH – Rudd has been very quiet the last few days. It’s an interesting strategy.
William
it does not say much for Gary Morgan because he agreed with me
BUT IT IS WORSE !!
because I only summarised my Morgan call on my blog
When I said to Gary his ‘marginal seat 2 PP 5.2% swing was mathematically wrong because 51.5 % compared to the Labor 2004 2PP of 47.26 %
HE SHOULD HAVE SAID:I was wrong ,the 5.2% is against 2004 Morgan’ marginal poll
Instead Gary Morgan , said: you are right….the swing is 3.2% !!!
I then said : no , mathematically the difference is 4.2%
Gary Morgan then said: you are right …its 4.2% , I’ll change the web release now
What can I say
Re 651,
“Howard Hater Says:
November 23rd, 2007 at 1:14 pm
Where is Rudd today?”
In Brisbsne doing visits to various shopping malls. Tomorrow he is handing out HTV all over Brisbane in support of the Labor candidates until 6pm.
Love that Howard cartoon Kirribilli Removals!!
There is the old codger lying in bed, one eye closed, one eye bolt open as he hears the sound of the waiting removalist.
Love it!
I’m gunna see if I can order that one.
Good one KJin
So what we need now is our friends in WA to tape the ABC midday news and do an analysis on what Cassidy said to further verify.
Howard is actually on his farewell tour of Northern shopping centres. He’s saying goodbye.
Ah LTEP, hows the concession speech going? And why have you so passionately argued for your own defeat for so long?
And anyone who has heard of the newspoll result please confirm it, your driving me insane. William, you are personally to blame in this nations fall in productivity levels
Lose the election please LTEP has outed himself
The BIG surprise is that he IS a Liberal troll – yawn…
Ron Brown, what is the address of your blog? I need a good laugh and you seem like the kind of hack to provide it
That Liberal rent-a-crowd at the NPC yesterday was appalling. The way they attempted to intimidate the journalists asking questions about the Lindsay saga was pretty darned bullying. That sort of thing has no place in a liberal democracy IMO.
151 Chris B
I do not consider the conditions to be as favourable as 72 or 83. There is no recession (83) and Howard is not as much a dill as Billy McMahon was (72). I also think as impressive as he is Kevin07 is not as inspiring as Gough or Hawke.
A bigger win is possible but I don’t think this will be the time. 52.5% and 82 seats would be pretty impressive
LTEP<
If you are JWH all I want to know is where’s my pork? Why didn’t I get promised a new hospital or freeway or something?
Sean – the name says it all really. They are making a virtue out of crowing that they know stuff we mere mortals don’t. But think about how often they get it wrong? The thing is, journos rely on sources – that’s how they get stories. If they annoy the sources, no inside info any more. Koutsoukis wrote about it a couple of weeks ago, which was quite brave of him even if it’s bleedingly obvious. Very few actually do the hard yards, like Possum does, for example. Most of them are innumerate as the Canny Times piece on Possum demonstrates. Journos report on what people told them, and frequently lack the judgement to discern what is correct from what is spin and what is optimism/pessimism. Insiders is reproduction of privilige, ‘us’ who know and can commodify that knowledge into a nice little earner, and ‘them’ who only know what we tell them.
A decent politics show would do exactly as you suggest, and good political journos would actually talk to people who can produce evidence about what is going on. But I won’t be holding my breath!
Just for the record
#622
Lose the election please Says:
November 23rd, 2007 at 1:03 pm
I’ve decided to stay with a safe pair of hands or to go for an independent like Family First.
Cassidy’s prediction is here. He is no doubt at all.
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/A-night-for-the-record-books-9779L?OpenDocument?OpenDocument
Ackerman is one of those guys we all love to hate. If he didn’t exist we’d have to invent him. Where would Superman be without Lex Luthor or Batman without the Joker. It’s so much fun loathing Ackerman and he’s so easy to make fun of.
Misty@671. The recalcitrant fools probably still haven’t learnt their lessons in spite of Michelle Grattan’s thrashings in The Age today. Don’t bite the hand that…
I also thought it was appaling, and can’t remember ever seeing a more partisan and intimidatory bunch of children in the Press Club ever.
LTEP – I’m sure I have heard him say he WILL win, but probably has said both.
BV
Lay off Ron Brown..
He admitted he got his sums wrong. So what. He’s one of few people who’s actually trying to do the sums for himself rather than letting Possum do it for them.
680 – I agree. No need for nastiness
Michelle G on ‘airhead Kelly’ and the Liberal rent-a-crowd at the Press Club
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/silly-act-even-for-airhead/2007/11/22/1195321949891.html
Alex it’s just I’ve never heard him (or I should really say me after my shocking revelation) say the he (I) will win his seat. He (I) always says he (I) has no intention of losing it.
I suppose there’s no point trying to decipher his (my) words.
Forgot to mention, not only was Cassidy out of line badgering Gillard on Sunday about Rudd’s no-show, but he tried an Ackerman smear tactic showing a video of her handing out material many years ago with the implication she was doing legal work for the Socialist Alliance or someone in it. Julia scotched it easily, but this had absolutely nothing to do with the issues of the campaign. Just slimy point scoring by Cassidy.
More I think about it, I hope he joins the other former Labor rat Bolt in a News Ltd. tabloid somewhere. You know, like The Gollarganbone Gazette.
684 – don’t knock Gulargambone!
Apologies
Bennelong, Sportingbet, hasn’t moved:
RODENT 1.58
MAXINE 2.20
I’m confused….poll overload. Can someone explain to me if the newspoll in todays GG is a current one or is it a old one? Has newspoll released a new poll for this week?
Front page of the GG website says the latest Newspoll will be released at 4PM.
Go to the naughty corner.
I do ask, however, where these “sums” are being dissected/posted/analysed.
Still have a really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really bad gut feeling about tomorrow.
Paul K – re pork
A letter in one of the papers this morning apparently said something to the effect of
“Pork, pork, pork and more pork in this election! Is there nothing for the jewish voter?”
I have no problems whatsoever with Barry Cassidy or Tony Jones.
It’s a journalist’s job to have a go at the pollies. In fact, I object it to when they don’t.
You can’t tell me that Cassidy goes easy on the Libs. Seems to me like he dishes it up to both sides fairly evenly.
As psychoanalyst specialising in keyboard styles I can now reveal the results of some painstaking research. ESJ is LTEP. or vice versa. With a little Tabby on the side.
Any word on wat the Newspoll is?
Jordan 692 I would too if I was a Liberal troll
Guys, my earwax is telling me that the Libs are going to win. It keeps building up everytime LTEP posts and I’m running out of cotton buds!
Newspoll is ensuring they make the 6pm TV news. If they are that excited, it sounds like the movement back to the Coalition might be significant.
Jordan 692
I can dig
? I’m voting Labor.
This really is the on-line equivalent of Big Brother (minus the turkey slapping). Congratulations on a great site, William.
BV Says:
November 23rd, 2007 at 11:35 am
Ron Brown, if you really did speak to Gary Morgan can you please call him back and ask him “is Australia heading in the ‘right direction’”?
Yes I DID speak to Gary Morgan this morning
Yes I did not know of a 2004 Morgan marginal poll & the 5.2% swing referred to IT
Yes I incorrectly took his 2007 51.5% marginal against 2004 ALP’s ACTUAL 47.26%
equals my 4.2%, whereas Morgan compared his 51.5% to his 2004 Marginal of 46.3
But in answer to your question , well I erroneously convinced Gary Morgan his release was mathematically wrong
My excuse is I was UNAWARE of a 2004 ‘marginal’ poll
but yes appologies , I forgot to ask him if we are heading in the right direction !
Yeah I noticed that. I must admit I have snapped up Howard at 1.72 at Centrebet. I still think he is going to lose, but I already had a fair bit of money riding on a Maxine McKew win and didn’t want Howard hanging on in Bennelong to spoil my night.
The upshot is an $80 loss if Howard holds Bennelong, and a $460 profit if Max wins. Not bad odds methinks!
Newspoll doesn’t do ‘half’ margins, so I’m guessing either 53/47 or 54/46.
692 Wait till the landslide against the Libs tomorrow night and then tell us how you feel.
alpal @ 563
Ta for that link. Good stuff.
BTW: ALP 89 seats.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/23/2099148.htm
Pollster tips cliffhanger, recounts
A polls analyst from Newspoll is expecting tomorrow’s federal election to be an extremely close contest and says it could be a week before a definitive result emerges.
Martin O’Shanessy says that, based on a poll to be published tomorrow, the result is certain to be a cliffhanger.
“I think we might find it very very close in those key marginal seats that we have to see and there may be a lot of recounts and protests around the edges,” he said.
“Vote coalition for job security: Howard” (Canberra Times)
Aaaaaahrg.
what was the last newspoll?
Yes, I too have been a longtime Labor voter but now I think they cannot win as Rudd is weak on the economy. He shouldn’t have made those rude remarks about that harmless pamphlet – that really turned off a lot of longtime Labour voters I know.
54/46
god you’re quick at responding SL
My predicition for Newspoll: 53.5/46.5
LTEP the Senator says its time to break cover and come home. Your work here is done, they are on to us. Well done to operate for so long behind enemy lines without support.
just had adiscussion with 2 of my collegues one is 35 with 2 kids and another about 25 and married…..both are voting liberal????….b/c tehy are worried about the economy apparantly……these are meant to be smart epopel, one of them even has a phd…….I just dont get it, how can they have no moral repulsion doing that????
and yes i know newspoll dont do half margins, but i think they might this time to try and make it seem closer for the govt
Forgive me if someone’s already posted this, but can anyone give any credence to this rather worrying item I found on Yahoo?
http://au.news.yahoo.com/071123/21/151s5.html
Kat – Its called show me the money
Btw, all of you who read signs about the direction of Newspoll depending on what time it is released are stupid (sorry, but I have to say it).
If you may recall, both the 53/47 and 55/45 newspolls were released at the exact same time – 9:50pm on Agenda the day before.
This one is coming early, because if it was released tomorrow, no one would care about it…
“THREE polls released on the election campaign’s last day have given wildly different results – and a Newspoll yet to be published tips a cliffhanger.
After a Galaxy poll had the Government within reach of a stunning come-from-behind win but AC Nielsen tipped a Labor landslide, Newspoll will tomorrow morning predict a “cliffhanger” that could mean the result will remain unclear for days.
Martin O’Shannessy, chief executive of Newspoll, said the latest poll, to be published in The Australian tomorrow, indicated a late surge for John Howard.”
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22806173-5013964,00.html
712 I thought you gave him more than enough support ESJ
kat – we all have different values
a guy at work who i talk to openly admits that values/morals etc have no impact on his vote. it’s about money to him
which is fine… makes life interesting
Edward,
Will LTEP qualify for protection under the Senator’s Witness Protection scheme?
MOE ffs
Swing Lowe, thanks for that insight – I didn’t realise I was stupid. Now it’s all so perfectly clear. What a waste of time becoming an actuary then… oh well. I guess I’ll have to vote Liberal now like all the other stupid people.
More from O’Shaughnessy:
and
Samuel K,
What I’m saying is that timing of release is not correlated with Newspoll results. I personally don’t care which party you vote for, just don’t use junk science to extrapolate predictions…
What’s with everyone automatically knocking 2% off the Labor figure – regardless of what it is – and insisting this is the REAL Labor figure? What about margin of error? Why can’t 55% actually just mean 55% once the Labor bias AND margin of error have been factored in?
The Australian Website reports that the latest Newspoll will be released at 4pm eastern summer time. http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au.
Ashley – the point is not that journos give all pollies a hard time; the point is that they tend to do it from a position of generally uncritical acceptance of the conventional wisdom. Thinsk how nice it would be were the pollsters to be interviewed by Possum? They’d have nowhere to hide at all.
Paisano – your analysis of keybaord styles will no-doubt produce many more examples of neurosis and fragmentation as the afternoon wears on into the evening …
Neophyte (707) Howard was talking about his OWN job.
Because that wouldn’t be exciting enough…
Morning folks!
One more sleep till judgment day
Jesus maddie, don’t you have cows to milk?
If any ALP supporter wants to feel good about themselves for a few minutes read this article:
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2007/11/22/1195321951483.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
Has someone got a handy reference to the election eve poll results from previous elections?
Agreed chinda. I really think it’s going to be a massacre.
Newpoll is covering its arse so, no matter what the result, it can say “told you so”.
Not everything is about scientific methods, Swing. Common sense dictates that the timing might be significant. My observation is that polls have leaked earlier in this campaign where they have shown some movement back to the Coalition – e.g. Galaxy.
What is your blog address Ron Brown?
Of course the Newspoll is showing movement back to the Coalition. What part of ‘late surge’ don’t you understand?
Knowing Newspoll that’ll be 53:47.
720
Michael Says:
November 23rd, 2007 at 1:42 pm
kat – we all have different values
a guy at work who i talk to openly admits that values/morals etc have no impact on his vote. it’s about money to him
which is fine… makes life interesting
Its not fine….b/c ist not even about ideologies any more, these peopel are so far from what a “liberal” actually means….they have turned this country into a selfish, intolerant, ego driven one………its just really makes me despair……….
Samuel K,
That’s because Galaxy is always leaked to Ch 10 news, which is the first major news bulletin to come out at 5pm. Newspoll always comes out at 9:50pm on Agenda, whilst ACN is often leaked sometime in between.
I don’t believe pollsters are trying to set a political agenda – they just time their leaks to get as much media exposure as possible. Newspoll, by leaking their results at 4pm today, ensures that their poll is covered in the 6pm bulletins – if it was leaked later, it would only come out on the late night news bulletins and in tomorrow’s papers, which would be useless as most people will never see or hear the results.
LTEP, no offence, but I’m kind of sick of seeing your username and accompanying pessimism every time I log onto to this site.
Can you give it a rest for a while and stop hogging the bandwith.
Hi Mad Cow,
Whats the feeling in deepest darkeest medowie today? The bookies certainly seems to think Arneman is in with a chance – in to $2.18 now.
BTW last night ran into Baldwin and his lib goons at Greenhills last night. Becuase he has been on TV som much my 5 year old to my etrnal shame went up to him and said “Hi Bob”. Bob put his hand out for a Hi-5 but then kept pulling his hand away and would not touch him. Smart arse!!
Btw, what’s the odds that Newspoll will be released with 2 separate figures – 1 for the national TPP and another for the marginals TPP?
My Family breakdown of voting for tomorrow is:
Labor – 4
Liberal – 2
Undecided – 1
Dad is voting Labor for the FIRST time in his life. He is 68.
Good for him.
Yeah, it does give me the sh*ts when they repeat Liberal party mantra. I don’t think they do it because they are biased. I think they do it because they are not thinking critically enough.
I was delighted to see Kerry O’Brien take Howard to task on the economy the other night on the 7.30 report. Journalists should have been doing that for years, but you never hear anyone having a go at him like that because they are all too afraid of being cut off from the drip-feed of information and interviews.
Regardless of the last bunch of single polls – it is too late for dramatic changes [and there being no cause], dramatic changes only come on dramatic events like 9/11 – doesn’t matter what Newspoll says on one day of the year. It does matter what a group of polls have been pointing to during the election campaign; it WILL be 54% on election day. At the very worst – a comfortable Labor win.
SL (723) That article might have made me feel better if I’d been able to read it without that damned annoying Lib advert next to it, with its sliding texts and its flashing pictures. Any subliminals buried in that thing? Who’d be surprised if there were?
Newspoll is NOT being leaked at 4:00 it is being released at 4:00.
Lose the Eeyore Please, are you really voting for Family First or was that a joke?
Given polls are the topic, some may enjoy the cartoon from the Tiser today:
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/cartoonpopup/0,22639,5004760-32762,00.html
It was a joke, if you read a few posts above it I was merely responding to yet another claim I’m anything but what I purport to be. Someone with an independent mind who will be voting Labor.
For what it’s worth to Henry, I will not cease posting here without William’s request but I understand any claims you’ve made about bandwidth and will contribute to the upkeep of this site as necessary. My sincere apologies if my posts aren’t optimistic enough for your liking. In future I will try and include one ray of sunshine per post.
Rudd to win 127 seats in an historic landslide.
I’m with you there Swing Lowe. It’s all about the money, and spinning the results for maximum intrigue and entertainment. In this election campaign that means showing that Howard is in with a chance.
The Oz website says Newspoll will be released at 4pm
Australians like to flirt with Labor but rarely marry it.
Has it dawned on everyone else that only us tragics think “polls” in themselves are “news”.. ie that polls will make a difference to what people will actually vote? my thoughts are it won’t… further… it is good for the ALP for people to think it will be closer than it really is… people made their minds up some time ago…
what always gets me about these polls is why no one ever rings me… I am a quintessential mid 20’s voter… I really think they must have a lot of trouble getting people who don’t rely on a fixed line to answer these polls… as such I think there is an ingrained pro LNP bias in this election given that the “young” vote is so strongly behind KEVIN07… someone care to explain how they overcome this?
They definitely want to make news headlines at 6pm.
Ashley – exactly. One problem is that some of them think they are so important they can dictate the terms of engagement with pollies – Alan Jones is one, and I suspect Bazza the C thinks of himself similarly. In the US, these sort of people run the show. Here. less so, and Howard has been really good at ‘disciplining’ journos who don’t toe the line. However they’ve all been arking up a bit lately. I notice Michelle isn’t pulling her punches at all lately, Laurie O (the artist formally known as Jabba) is giving it to them big-time as the end looms, and Koutsoukis. But notice the more marginal ones (Annabelle Crabbe, Virginia Trioli) and their ilk still don’t know how to take them on. Although VT did trip up Reith over kids overboard. But that was like shooting a fish in a bucket, I guess.
My argument is for more engagement between people who know stuff and pollies, perhaps mediated by a journo. As Sean suggested, ‘Insiders’ with a panel of house-trained specialists (possum, some sensible economists, academics etc) would be a hoot for the serious minded (if as dull as the lawn bowls on tv for everyone else) but you would have to find a bunch of academics and so on with something like pizzazz. So it won’t happen, sadly. C’est la vie!
In case this has not been posted:
Labor leader Kevin Rudd will be elected next prime minister with a 6.8 per cent national swing against the Howard Government, a Ninemsn poll predicts.
In the largest poll of the 2007 election campaign, the Passion Pulse forecasts as many as 24 seats will swing Labor’s way on the back of a 53.4% two party preferred vote.
The Prime Minister will lose his seat to Maxine McKew while the result in his chosen successor Peter Costello’s electorate of Higgins will be too close to call.
The Passion Pulse is based on ninemsn’s online surveying of 86,763 people through the campaign and puts the following seats in play:
BenC, Jim is still 2.10 on sportingbet, which gives him about 55/45 against.
I think he’s 60/40 in favor.
Medowie is a strangely quiet place today. Looks like people have something on their mind.
Rumor has it that pre polling has swung heavily to Labor. Rumor also has it that the RAAF guys are swinging too (not that that bunch will ever get to 50/50 but the swing is in Labor’s favor).
Down with Bob.. down with Bob…
Cool LTEP – things are moving too fast to keep up!
Have you tried changing your deodorant?
So will Newspoll be 50/50?
Betting market movements at Portlandbet:
In favour of Coalition:
Bennelong ($2.07 to $2.15)
Dobell ($1.14 to $1.16)
Eden-Monaro ($1.12 to $1.14)
Wentworth ($2.50 to $2.65)
To Labor:
Cowper ($2.70 to $2.65)
Hughes ($2.65 to $2.45)
Lowe ($1.07 to $1.02)
Macarthur ($2.70 to $2.58)
North Sydney ($4 to $3.95)
Paterson ($2.20 to $2.18)
Page ($1.53 to $1.46)
To IND:
Calare ($5 to $4.25)
Parkes (something to $5.50, but I know it’s a move towards the IND)
And that’s just in NSW from the top of my head. Still quite a bit of volatility out there
Not asking for a ray of sunshine in your posts LTEP, less posting will suffice thanks.
Yep, I think you’re right. The 2PP will be officially the epitaph of the government, but the will provide a marginal poll (with huge MOE per seat of course) to cover their ass and say it will be ‘tight’.
Of course it will be frigging tight in the marginals!!!! THEY ARE MARGINALS!!!!
My old man called me, just did his pre-poll out in Aston. He voted 1 Greens in both, pref Labor in Reps. Mum voted 1 Greens senate, 1 Labor Reps, having voted Libs in ‘04 (due to her school being on Latham’s list). Very proud of them both.
In the office the undecideds are splitting 8-1 in favour of the ALP, 7 of the 9 voted Libs in ‘04. The singular vote for the Libs is more against Rudd (she thinks he’s a smart-ass) than for Howard. But it’s in a safe Labor seat so no worries there. No-one I’ve spoken to gives a rats about ‘local issues’, and barely any had heard of their local members before the campaign started. This is a professional office, everyone with degrees, and although a fairly creative field (architecture) there’s a strong anti-union sentiment amongst most in the office.
I’m living in a dualism at the moment. Head says Labor easily, heart says that zombie Howard and his undead goons will somehow claw through the electoral coffin.
But then I’ll be out there tomorrow trying to help Adam Bandt knock off Lindsey Tanner here in Melbourne so I can’t be too pro-Labor
re: Ozymandias @ #748
To get rid of the annoying Lib adverts, just disable javascript in your browser settings. Then refresh the page.
Swing Lowe – So Nairn is now raging favourite in EM?
Say it aint so Joe!
Dario @ 766,
The more I read O’Shaughnessy’s remarks, the more it strengthens my belief that two sets of figures will be released. Expect a 53/47 TPP result, with a 51/49 result in the marginals (or something along those lines).
Adam Bandt? Now there’s a choice for commonsense.
Henry @ 769,
No – Labor has gone from $1.12 to $1.14 – it means there’s been some movement back to the Coalition but Labor is still the heavy favourite…
I’ve been surprised that we haven’t seen more positive ads from Labor in the last week (before wed). They went pretty negative, which kind of reduces it down to ‘my scare campaign is scarier than yours’.
I think they should have done a few more positive ads on health and education.
Anyone know the whereabouts of the Galaxy poll table. We’ve had some dribbles from News Ltd. But that’s all. I can’t find it anywhere.
Bit sus if no sample number and moe. And with each side sitting on 42.5% primary would be nice for something to back it up.
I guess we’ll have to take their word for it, eh? And Galaxy wouldn’t cheat, would they?
oldtimer @ 626
Gidday oldtimer! Long in the tooth myself and bear the scars. Never fear – it’s on! There are too many indicators and the pro-Rudd endorsements from such unlikely rags as the Daily Telegraph and the Australian probably indicate the state of affairs. Also the SMH. Cheers!
Everyone remember this, Geeks rule the world! Steve Jobs, Bill Gates are geeks. It’s time for us geeks to stand up and start a revolution, a geek revolution. Support the closest leader we have as a geek, Kevin Rudd.
Ah thanks SL.
What’s Murph paying in Lowe these days, $1.00000001??!![url=http://www.videowhip.co.uk][img]http://starwarsloser.info/smile/happy/happy0204.gif[/img][/url]
Does this smiley work??
byce IIRC the sample size for galaxy was a bit over 1000. ACN on the other hand did both a phone poll of about 2500 and an online poll of 1000 or so, so combined 3500 for ACN, and the online and phone polls both showed 57-43
Voting for the money – what money would that be? The pittance that Howard tosses back as welfare is miniscule to me. If Rattus Rattus does manage to squeak across the line, lots of people will get it in the neck with SerfChoices and AWAs. Most businesses won’t be able to restrain themselves. Howard will have only 6 months before the Senate changes so he’ll scrape up every insipid piece of legislation that he has ever thought of, and ram it through. And $weetie, screwed over again. Howard will say that HE made the difference that people voted for John Howard, and he’ll stay another 3 years – $weetie better get himself a supersize KY Jelly.
obviously not…
Yep, 2 bob each way for sure. Totally agree we could be seeing a 53/47 accompanied by a “cliffhanger” 51/49 marginal result… which isn’t really the cliffhanger it makes out, because Labor will pick up some safe seats too.
BrissyRod @ 771: Bandt is the first local candidate I’ve heard speak and actually been interested in campaigning for. As opposed to Tanner who’s not much use as a local member. But as long as we get above the no-name Libs candidate I’ll be happy.
My opinion?
The ‘late surge’ won’t be in 2pp much. probably 53-47.
But Newspoll will argue some sort of less than average swing in the marginals.
Just remember a few things:
Howard and Rudd haven’t been campaigning in 5-10% margin seats a lot for fun. Indeed, Howard was in 10% Leichardt just today.
If Rudd couldn’t pull off a win with the huge lead he had at the start of the campaign, then he probably would never have made a great PM anyway.
“Newspoll says Cliffhanger – results here 4pm” from the front page of the Oz.
BTW, if anyone needs some light entertainment I have updated my website link
I understand prepolls in Forster area ran 50/50 for first time in years. Fingers still crossed for Jim Arneman
Su H, got any other figures?
4.00 pm release by Newspol means that it will get mentioned on the nighly news but the stories by PaulB Laurie and the guy from 7 will be largely bedded down I would imagine. So there may be leaks before them if NewsPoll leak to the TV’s to really get in the stories. But all of it is marginal unless it is 51/49 or worse.
782 – I am happy for the Greens to increase their vote. But not at the expense of Mr Tanner.
sorry – as a long time Labor voter I just can bring myself to support the Greens. I will be voting below the line in the Senate this time.
“Now only at the end do the pathetic Labor fools realise their failure”
- Crosby/Textor 23rd November 2007
Oh – and don’t forget!
Polls are not there for our entertainment.
They are there to sell newspapers.
Which will sell more papers?
A poll which suggests the race could be tight and go down to the wire?
Or a pool which simply agrees with the trend and what everyone has been saying all year – that the Government will be smashed?
For Pete’s sake there’s only one day to go. Do we really have to ask LTEP to censor himself at this late stage. If you don’t like his comments don’t read them. After tomorrow night everything will change and he’ll either be right in his negativity or wonderfully wrong.
I just got a green leaflet saying nasty misleading things about Greens & on the supposed threat of them holding B.of P. in Senate. It is misleading in that it’s green, clearly intended to imply that is leaflet from Greens. Is authorised, address I believe is Libs Office in Adelaide. No identification of Libs on it, however. Southcott, lib member here in BOOTHBY knew about it & said he agreed with it all on local ABC here. I’m disgusted. The scare tactics have arrived in Boothby, so seems the recent polling that has the seat on a knife edge is accurate. I have been getting a series of letters, today 3 from libs, 2 from labor. Southcott has never, ever been this active (& that’s a core promise). Had to laugh at his assertion Libs to hold State Govts. to account, they wouldn’t know what accountability is, roll on the bloodbath.
I think that’s the funniest thing Tabitha has ever said
O’Shaughnessy’s comments about the swings not being even might explain the divergence in the polls so far
This is a cracker:
“How to give out HTVs”
I’ll follow their advice tomorrow!
Paul K, he wasn’t asking me to censor myself but to post less often. Which I can do.
Labor to win Mallee
http://pulse.ninemsn.com.au/forecast/
Now says Labor are going to win 24 with 11 too close to call.
Earlier this week it said Labor was going to win 21.
Early last week it said Labor was going to win 19.
Brissy Rod, i’ll buy your dad a beer for his first real vote.
Tabitha,
On Monday we’re sending the Union Bosses over to “talk” with you about your “re-education” course.
ShowsOn, unless they explain their methodology all I can say about passion pulse is its too volatile. Every time I look at it, the swings dip and sway like the bars on an equaliser.
790
Tabitha Says:
November 23rd, 2007 at 2:13 pm
“Now only at the end does that pathetic Old Fool realise he forgot to take his viagra medication.”
- Crosby/Textor 23rd November 2007
I’m nervous about this “cliffhanger” newspoll due to be published in the Australian this afternoon. I don’t want to be pessimistic, but I think we’ve been down this path before. I only hope it ain’t so.
Howard has not exactly had a good week in his campaign and yet, on election eve, he is within millimetres of victory. Perhaps Krudd was doomed from the start.
Ralp – we have never been down this path before. It’s teh day before the election.
Oh dear have I cursed another Labor victory?
You consider half a million votes millimetres?
No.
John Hunt, you miss the joke. Its a quote from Star Wars. The emperor says that not long before he ends up getting vaporised.
Gezza – an Adelaide Uni poll of 800 people in Boothby suggest a 50-50 deadlock.
Mr Nostradaime
Only if you believe Galaxy.
If you believe ACN he’s around 28 hours from oblivion.
2010 everyone, 2010………. is but 1095 days away……………
jc sez:
How many different ways can you say “Will you have fries with that?”
Yep, Ralph, never been down this path before.
Last election Newspoll on the eve of the election had a 50/50 result didn’t they? And look how that turned out.
Just heard Howard on Kellygate again on Radio National; what’s striking is the lack of moral outrage. No moral bone in his body.
If Labor does drop in tomorrow’s Newspoll, well that would make perfect sense wouldn’t it?.
I mean it has after all been a shockingly bad week for Labor…oh wait that would be the Coalition. So please tell me again why should Labor drop in the polls? Are they only polling morons now?.
Oh, by the way, who remembers 2004?
Where Newspoll also called a cliffhanger?
50/50?
816 – ‘Are they only polling morons now?’
LOL
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/polls.shtml
Looks fine to me folks.
no mad cow you missed the joke – howard can’t get it up…in time for the poll
I think the accusations of Insiders being a Pro-Howard program say more about the bias of the posters on this site!
Paul Kelly notwithstanding, Barrie seems to be pretty even handed, and the three journos are more often all centre/left than centre/right. I’ve seen plenty of eps with Marr, Megalogenis and Toohey, or Middleton, Price and Milne. How often are Bolt and Akerman on at the same time? Bolt and Henderson? All three? Ever happened?
Shame they don’t repeat it on ABC2 on Sunday nights anymore. I hate having to get up early…
(Andrew – $200.00 on the Coalition to hang on)
did newspoll reallly have 50/50 last election eve?
Gezza @ 793
Were you able to listen all morning to mattndave from Boothby ? Can you confirm a poll by Flinders Uni (?) that has Boothby “too close to call” ?
Go Nicole !
The numbers have all been pointing in the right direction thus far. But, the talk of the cliffhanger newspoll has spooked me a little. It’s hard to believe that people are rushing back to the rodent at the last minute. However, I’m confident the people will make the right decision tomorrow. Undoubtedly, the general feeling in the community is that Howard’s been a fairly decent PM, but he’s had his day and it’s time for a new bloke. I can only hope that people that sentiment with them into the ballot box.
We should all remember that the final Newspoll was released on election day 2004 was out by 2.7% at the last election. That’s not a very good record for final poll accuracy.
John Hunt the only drug he needs is HCN.
It might be a Coalition-friendly sample. It might be that there’s a huge surge for Howard because they all feel sorry for him. Who knows?
Polls are not absolute, nor are they perfect. I like to overanalyse polls as much as everybody else, but to obsess and engage in microanalysis over individual poll results is silly.
Newspoll is so cruel.
Theyve done it time and time again, try and make the Coalition look better when they most need it.
I just take comfort in that last time they said 50-50. Gosh I’m gonna have trouble sleeping tonight
Afternoon bludgers from sunny Broken Hill. Is the GG they delivered to BH the same as the real one or was it a Lindsay-style practical joke? It endorsed Ruddski. WTF is going on?
Jordan,
If true (Boothby 50/50), that is great for Labor. apart from being a 5% swing in itself, it represents a 2% improvement since the previous Boothby poll, where up till now the reported swing has been below the average for South Australia. If that carries across Adelaide, Mia Handshin will win Sturt as well. Hurray
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/23/2099148.htm
Funny how 52-48 is “panic stations”. Does anyone ACTUALLY think that Labor will get 55 2PP tomorrow?
This might be a song to listen to tomorrow night as well
From Elton John – Can You Feel The Love Tonight?
(Chorus)
And can you feel the love tonight?
It is where we are
It’s enough for this wide-eyed wanderer
That we got this far
And can you feel the love tonight
How it’s laid to rest?
It’s enough to make kings and vagabonds
Believe the very best
Yes, at SunCorp Stadium the wide-eyed wanderers of 11+ years in the ALP wilderness will definitely feel the love tomorrow night and will definitely be believing the very best for the future
Not much longer to go folks. Don’t let the last opinion polls get you down or worried. Just feel the love tomorrow night
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PkGDrV_2ehI
Yes Edward, it’s all about you. The Universe is only interested in what you say and do.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/tides-turning-pm/2007/11/23/1195753279860.html
The tide is “coming back” to the coalition strongly enough for it to win tomorrow’s election, Prime Minister John Howard said today.
Top story online
To all those predicting a landslide ALP victory, I issue this reminder: never underestimate the cupidity, timidity, shortsightedness or traditionalism of the electorate as a whole. Also never overestimate its collective intelligence or willingness to see the truth. Despite this extremely damaging week for the Coalition, I’m still predicting Rattus Falsehoodinus to scrape in. The only way that JWH was going to be voted out, after having perfected the application of election bribes (like throwing scraps to the pigs), was if he was caugght in bed with an underage partner.
Democracy is a device that ensures we shall be governed no better than we deserve. – George Bernard Shaw, playwright.
In case you fail to notice, my opinion of my fellow Australians could use some improvement. But that’s due to experience with them, at the 1996, 1998, 2001 and 2004 elections.
My prediction stands: Coalition with 78-80 seats.
The last Boothby Advertiser Poll was flawed because it distributed preferences 60/40 to Labor (which was the split at last election). I think it will be higher than that tomorrow, perhaps 70 or even 75%.
If that is the case, Cornes will get over the line on preferences.
Re 832,
“Jordan Says:
November 23rd, 2007 at 2:27 pm
Funny how 52-48 is “panic stations”. Does anyone ACTUALLY think that Labor will get 55 2PP tomorrow?”
Yes
I believe ACN poll over all others Jordan 832 and I am mightily spooked by getting anything less than 100 seats.
Small Boothby poll conducted by Adelaide university:
http://www.abc.net.au/adelaide/stories/s2099106.htm
LOL. Not as much difficulty as the punter who put $160,000 on Labor last week.
As confident as I am that Labor will win, with $160,000 on the line I would be freaking out slightly.
The critical thing about the Boothby poll from the Advertiser was it showed the greens at 9%. This is significant, and a potentially huge supply of 2PP for Cornes. If Cornes can get around 36-37% of the primary, she may stand a very good chance. She may even need less if the greens votes pops above 10%.
I hope more of this is not happening around the country…
Was speaking to the admin girl at work at morning tea this morning. She’s mid-40s, not overly blessed with intelligence and I dare say not in tune with politics. Was having a discussion about the election and a few people jumped in with stuff about Johnny packing his bags. But the admin lady says something along the lines of “I think Howard’s done a pretty good job, I just don’t know why we need to change”. I really worry that people out in the suburbs who don’t give a rats about politics (most of them) will just get cold feet at the last minute and go for the ’safety’ option. If there is a chance that Labor won’t get up, that’s it in my opinion.
Not long to go now until the end of Rattus. Can’t wait for tomorrow night 6PM!!!
Jordan, you were the one panicking earlier remember?
Has newpoll leaked iedy?
#840, the Boothby poll from Adelaide Uni was from last week, Nov. 15.
Neo
“Just heard Howard on Kellygate again on Radio National; what’s striking is the lack of moral outrage. No moral bone in his body.”
What I’m surprised about is that Humphries did a similar thing in the ACT with Costello’s support and it hasn’t got as much coverage.
Senator Gary Humphries was also under fire today for distributing a pamphlet linking Labor frontbencher Lindsay Tanner to radical Greens policy to decriminalise illegal drugs.
But he stood by a pamphlet that did not feature any Liberal Party logo, instead featuring a photograph of senior Labor MP Lindsay Tanner who is quoted as saying, “in order to form government we might have to do some of the things they want.”
Callers to local radio in Canberra stated the flyer was confusing and was designed to appear as if it was endorsed by Mr Tanner.
Treasurer Peter Costello also defended the pamphlets
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22803835-5014046,00.html
Why does anyone take this cliffhanger nonsense seriously. We are dealing with a government that has told ANY LIE to cling to office – from the economy (record low interest rates) to matters of national security (Haneef, SEIVE X and Iraq). Does anyone think they won’t call in favours from mates to lie about polls? Ignore Galaxy, LTEP and Newspoll “cliffhangers”. AC Neilsen are professional pollsters, not politicians. They wouldn’t put their names on something they thought was false. AC Neilsen 57/43 means best case 55/45 win to Labor.
Has anyone seen all of the jaded Tories tearing shreads off David Penberthy on his blog today?
If I was a Liberal party member I would be trying to get rid of this vitriolic hard right element that has taken over the party. They have adopted a style of politics (US Republican) that just doesn’t work in this country.
Heres to a long reign in opposition for the Australian Tories!
Newspoll: Think about it from a marketing point of view.
They will do everything they possibly can to frame the information they release today (as opposed to the full poll info tomorrow) to try to create interest in the poll, thereby encouraging people to buy The Australian.
It is that simple. Putting out a poll that suggests “same old, same old” would be dumb commercially so they are really tailoring the think to breathe some life into the contest.
I think ACN has gone out on a bigger limb than Galaxy. For ACN to be right, they need to get an massively unprecedented result… if they have picked it they will be polling gods for the next 3 years.
But if the end result is between 53-54% then Galaxy won’t look too bad (maybe only 1.5% off) but ACN will be way out. Ouch.
Morgan has gone for the safest option on 54.5. I bet he didn’t even do a poll… probably just took the average of the past 10 polls we’ve had.
Andrew 821 – I agree with you. I watch Insiders most weeks and I think Cassidy is fairly well balanced. The producers try to even up the panels – eg Bolt and Ackerman never appear together. Pity Matt Price is mia at present, George Mega is always informative. Someone here earlier said the show could be improved by including a non journo on the panel – I think that would be an improvement.
We already are in a long reign of opposition for the Coalition ND duh!
We just dont wanna lose the last thing we got!
Newspoll 52-48 i think
845 – i know. i dont know what im thinking. one minute i think labor has it in the bag, the next minute i think howard will get in. Im now regretting coming to this forum!
Yes. And I’m being serious.
“Newspoll says cliffhanger: full results 4 PM”
Headline on The Australian website now
Are some of you afraid of winning or are you so jaded after 11 years in the wilderness that you cant accept that Labor will win? There has not been a single poll or a single respected analyst which shows anything else will happen. Labor will win as predicted by Possum, Jackman etc. The TPP will be 54-46 with about 80-85 seats. I understand your agony but look at it rationally and ignore the emotion.
Matthew @ 847 – the web page says the Boothby poll was conducted on Monday 19 November and Wednesday 21 November. That makes sense given 891 did their live broadcast from Boothby today (23rd).
Cheers
Matthew 847
Thanks I didn’t kow that. In that case though, its even better. From that position the Liberal scandals since might get Nicole over the line.
YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
its gonna be close i told u guys i told ya’ll it would be a squeaker who ever win!
This will only help Rudd. He’s already in front.
The WORST outcome for voters would be going through ANOTHER entire election campaign and election in 3 months time.
Oh, and Matthew – this Boothby poll gives the Greens more than 10% fp – 11.1% actually. Keep in mind this is a tiny 442 sample.
Go Nicole !
unless ACN is correct Glen. (and mind you that’s 2 ACNs, phone and net)
Or Morgan.
Clifhanger means 52-48 or 51-49 or even 50-50 (which would be bullbutter IMHO)…
SWEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEET
Diogenes #848,
#2 for me – I’m disillusioned with the (lack of) capacity of the Australian public to look beyond the next tax cut, never mind the next ten years.
Anyways polls are bull butter. It’ll come down to Saturday LTEP as u say.
Which is their usual 7 – 8, plus 2 – 3 who don’t want to give Cornes their first preference.
Poor LNP supporters. Their hopes are going to be raised, and then crushed. Rather like supporters of the England football team really.
What, does he think he’s King Cnut or something and is attempting to control the tides?
(NB: I’m aware that the thing about Cnut holding back the tide is often misinterpreted, it was more an attempt to show his court, though his failure to do so, that he was human after all.)
Exactly.
If I don’t get to say it tomorrow – happy Democracy Day Glenie – Enjoy the miracle of Democracy at work in the greatest country this planet has.
Glen, are you starting to practice you “nya nya nye nya nya’s” yet?
At this point, who really cares about Newspoll – the reall poll is tomorrow!!
Mad Cow – no and it is hard to get any feelings from my own area which is a bit mixed. Self-funded retirees and tradies on small holdings, many in the village on welfare payments and people working in Taree/Forster. Although a few more have spoken to me about wanting a change I can’t push it further than that. Some I didn’t expect to change are saying they will but there are still a lot of There are a lot of ‘rednecks’. They loved Howards’ let-them-sink attitude to Tampa which horrified me and the other big thing is the aboriginal question. Many just want them eliminated. So although I have big community involvement since retiring it seems those of us who are die-hard softies seem to group together to do things. Very difficult to get a clear feeling one way or the other. However, Jim Arneman walked the streets of the Village and I know one shop owner who has changed her vote because he took the time to return to her with a pamphlet outlining a policy that she was interested in. I am like you – just sitting here nervously hoping Jim will cross the line. Will be handing out and scrutineering tomorrow.
I think NewsPoll will be 53/47 and they’ll talk up swings in the “wrong” seats.
Absolutely right. Let’s all close our browsers and come back online on Sunday.
NOT!!!!!
Diogenes @ 858 has said it well.
To me, it’s like the ALP has tried to run this same race 4 times previously, and it’s suffered losses of varying magnitude. It’s like watching sad sack teams like South Sydney in the NRL or Richmond in the AFL – they get to a point where they are in a position to win matches but somehow manage to f*ck it up. That’s what losing does. Now we’re in the final few steps to the finishing line, the jitters are here again. If they can fall over the line for a win, confidence will return and most likely there will be a few more wins ahead. If they lose, they must be doubting their ability to ever win a contest. Having said all that, I’m firmly crossing fingers for an ALP win tomorrow.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BEmnlqArPVo if newspoll means it will be a tight election.
Ashley I tried. I don’t have the willpower. I will be refreshing like a demon for the next 30 hours.
Ian @859, the headline of Last Update: Thursday, November 15, 2007. 9:00am ACDT at the top of the article was putting me off. My apologies.
In which case I will laugh at them in the following manner:
[deep booming voice] Mmuuuuuaaaahaaaaahaaaaa! Fools!
MGM no im just happy that if we lose it wont be by much and we have an outside chance of winning, how can i gloat when Labor have been ahead for a year.
I’ll be signing off now. I have read often and posted rarely. I honestly don’t know where you all get the time!
I’ll be away from a computer from now until after we know the result.
It’s been good for a natural pessimist like me to come here and be cheered up.
However, in the end you’ve all failed to convince me. Coalition to sneak in with 76 seats on about 48.2% of the TPP vote.
Howard to ride off into retirement as a Tory legend. 3 more years of miserable government for the wealthy maintained by massive bribes at every election. The sickening sight of Alexander Downer gloating for 3 years.
Oh well it’s been fun to imagine a different result but in the end.
Always back self-interest it’s the only horse that always tries – Jack Lang.
Remember Canada…..
STEPHANIE LEVITZ, CANADIAN PRESS
Ottawa – Canada’s electorate appears to have confounded the pollsters. Weeks of speculation, number crunching and supper-hour phone calls to more than 25,000 Canadians over the last five weeks meant little in the end as the Liberals beat projections that they were headed for a sound thrashing in the election…
June 2004
Show’s On, Im going to have to recycle my Boothby prediction from last weekend now after the 11% green’s vote in the Adelaide Uni ABC Boothby poll:
“The green vote last time was 7%, which is fairly decent. I suspect it will be much higher this time, easily getting over 10%. In fact, I’m going to go out on a limb here and predict 12% !”
You’re placing an awful lot of emphasis on one poll. “Cliffhanger” probably means they pulled back one point or something, but we’ll find out soon enough.
Medical alert:
Those with jangled nerves, dicky tickers, RSI, high blood pressure and any of the many variations of “Oh-my-God-John-Howard-has-got-in-again-I-am-leaving-the-country” syndrome please close down your computer now. Take a long walk. Get a good night’s sleep. Worrying will change nothing.
Thank-you.
Sean
The tide is “coming back” to the coalition strongly enough for it to win tomorrow’s election, Prime Minister John Howard said today.
That story is actually quite funny, has a picture of Howard surrounded by his goons and bodyguards, all looking totally morose, in the background are protestors holding up signds re climate change and Work Choices.
And Howard says “I believe that there is a bit of a tide coming back. I sense it in the streets.”
Priceless
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/tides-turning-pm/2007/11/23/1195753279860.html
Oh cmon even if this poll is 52-48 or 51-48 Labor have been ahead for all this year and still have a better chance of winning. Still if the ‘NARROWING’ has occured it may have come too late to save Howie. Im happy the election will be a squeaker though if galaxy and newspoll are correct.
jc another architect huh?
Fairly strong Labor office. The principle despises the Rodent.
We have a young woman who is your typical disengaged youth. Hasn’t got a clue. Even asked who she “should” vote for. I don’t advocate (sorry – I’d rather people think for themselves). She said she doesn’t know who she’s voting for – but leaning to Club Vermin. Said “it looks like Rudd is going to spend a lot of money”???? The Union Bogey Man also got a run. At that point I did say ‘who do you think fought for equal pay for women – the unions or business?’ But left it at that.
Oh well, she lives in Hughes, so probably no harm in the end.
If the Greens get 12, then Boothby is in the bag.
Exactly Flash, regardless of the poll to be released it’s not going to change the election outcome. There’s nothing that can be done now and whatever happens happens.
What’s the point of rigging or nobbling a poll this close to the election?
I can’t see why a polling organisation would trash their reputation by distorting results, or even by asking push-polling type questions. There’s too much to lose.
No, I think each polling company thinks they have it right and are going for bragging rights on the day.
As Possum says, it comes down to “house bias”.
There’s been a lot of talk about how Newspoll and Galaxy are supposed to be pro-Coalition, and how ACN and Morgan seem to be pro-Labor in their biases. But we really don’t know which proposition is right, do we? The figures have not been tested in an actual “live” election, and can’t be until tomorrow (at the earliest).
As for my personal prediction: I think those waverers, when they finally have the stubby pencil in their claws, will consider that Howard is going soon, will remember the Costello smirk, the abbot foot in the abbott mouth, the flouncing bitchiness of Downer, the zombie-like mask of Ruddock and the Inquisitorial, pasty faced pallor of Andrews and will resolve to be rid of them in one short, foul stroke of the pen.
Labor to win with 83 seats and about 53.4% of the 2PP vote.
It won’t be close.
But I suppose the good news is that *if* it is, it’s going to be all the sweeter. Raising Lib hopes, only to dash them oh-so-cruelly, is only the start of the payback.
Arbie Jay 888 Yes the tide that the Old Fool can feel is in his long johns…getting on a bit poor bugger
But they didn’t call the Galaxy Poll a “cliffhanger” and that was a 52/48! This whole “Cliffhanger” talk has really spooked me! I had so much confidence so I’m hoping it won’t be dampened too much after 4 PM..
or dash your hopes PL and another 2 years of Unca Howie lol!
I still don’t see a Labor victory.
Jukebox suggestions for tomorrow night:
Beatles – Revolution
McCarthy – We are all bourgeois now
Oasis – Acquiesce (Accompanying Rudd’s march to the podium in the (unlikely) event of a Labor win)
Manics – Motorcycle emptiness
RATM – Sleep now in the fire
Rolling Stones – Street Fightin’ Man
Oasis – Cigarettes and Alcohol
Billy Joel – Allentown
Libertines – Arbeit macht frei
Manics – Freedom of speech won’t feed my children
Dropkick Murphys – Fortunate son
Stone Roses – She bangs the drums
Pink Floyd – Money
Jarvis Cocker – Running the world
Jimi – All along the watchtower
Manics – A design for life
Radiohead – Electioneering
($200.00 on the Coalition to hang on)
Bugger it, I say Labor by 2. Any win’s a good win, no matter how small.
I say Liberal by 2
Wow if only people took a punt on Howie at 5$ wow.
Ah, the Indian summer of false hope, and fools gold…. tut tut tut.
This election will be called for the ALP by 830pm.
I am SO happy that Howard is going to win, this is from polls of 39-61 two party preferred for much of the year. This is going to make this one of the most greatest come from behind wins in Western political history.
To Ralph #843 – It is amazing that the ignoramus have Howard’s vote (but I think she was always a Howard voter anyway).
Perhaps the Jackie Kelly Jihad-gate will actually help the Libs and explains why people are turning to the coalition! After all, we are an isolated country full of ignorant bigots and this is what they like to hear, and confirms everything alan Jones tell’s them. Also it’s howard’s policy to keep his battlers dumb so they keep voting coalition.
Anyway I have $80 on JWH losing benelong ($2.20), $50 on Newhouse ($2.55) and $20 on Mike Bailey ($3.90) and $100 fee on Labor ($1.22).
If I win all four (small “L” libs going labor), the proceeds will go to a car GPS – and I’ll thanks the libs.
Labor by 12 seats.
Liberals by 3.
Rudd betrayed us: Pearson
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22808741-601,00.html
I’m concerned that Howard is going to be the recipient of sympathy votes. If so, how ironic – such a nasty piece of work.
Regarding the politically disingaged. A friend of mine used to work in a video/dvd store and he told me that election night is the busiest day. People would be lining up down the street to get there hands on ANYTHING as long as they didn’t have to watch the election coverage. However this may have changed rapidly since the ever growing popularity of Foxtel.
in a hung parliament, the independents decide, right?
Didn’t think I’d ever say this but seems like LTEP and Glen are more positive about a Labor win than most of the Labor supporters on this site.
or we have another election.
I wonder which headline sells more dog food ads:
CLIFFHANGER ELECTION – OUTCOME UNCERTAIN!
LANDSLIDE – ONE HORSE RACE!
Somebody be reassuring?
The Coalition can’t win by 3 seats because there are an even number of total seats.
I’m predicting 77 Coalition, 2 independent and 71 Labor; that’s a Coalition majority of 4.
Everything’s
Gonna be OK.
But this will give the impression that Howie can stay in power like a 1998 result.
It all depends on primaries if the Tories and Labor are equal on primaries anything is possible.
Newspoll 51-49 for me.
Flash: yep. OK for the Coalition, that is.
888 – I believe Howard said you’d have to be an idiot to not believe in the polls before. And he uses Textor Crosby polls.
However, now he says they are irrelevant.
Steph, the LNP primary vote is simply too low.
They havent got a hope in hell, and they know it.
Thats why Howard is in Leichardt, with a 10% margin. He’s trying to prevent a wipeout.
If he was trying to win an election, he’d be in a marginal seat.
getting considerably less confident as the seconds tick closer to the election. surely this is just a part of being a labor voter?
The problem here is that there is pretty much a vacuum – notwithstanding the imminent release of Newspoll which will just mean the nothingness will feed off not very much for a frantic few hours.. Bear in mind the following:
Too much of nothing
Can make a man abuse a king.
He can walk the streets and boast like most
But he wouldn’t know a thing.
Now, it’s all been done before,
It’s all been written in the book,
But when there’s too much of nothing,
Nobody should look.
BINGO!
I’M A BROAD!
Now I would imagine that this great Australian is one Rudd would like to have the endorsment of.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22808741-601,00.html
A bit too late in the day to Me-too Howard on this one.
They won’t be. Keep on dreaming Glen and Nosty. Labor with a minimum of 80 seats but keep on going. It’ll just make it all the more painful for you tomorrow night.
6 months ago i predicted 80 seats, 1 month a go I predicted 80 seats, 1 week ago I predicted 80 seats and now 80 seats.
And the lucky seats are:
kingston, bonner,wakefield, paramatta, makin, braddon, hasluck, bass, moreton, solomon, lindsay, eden mon, bennelong, dobbel, page,blair, herbert, robertson, bowman, dawson.
And the smokers are Ryan, Kalgoorlie, sturt, (coorangi/deakin/mcmillan 1 of)
Newspoll had 50/50 last election. 47% voted for humphrey b bear or equivalent.
Now we have a product, we have workchoices, and we have Kyoto. They have lies, cover up, scandell, spending.
Bank it do what you want. Last state election I predicted 8 and picked Morwell to fall.
I think its safe to say Rudd Lovers will be more unhappy should they lose than should we lol!
If it rains on Saturday night what will happen at Suncorp good if you win it’ll be like Woodstock bad if you lose though.
Neither side if they win will have a majority of more than 10.
Tories by 3 or Labor by 6.
But i think the Tories still have a decent chance especially with this lovely poll
Pearson is a Lib patsy.
Sorry, I should have credited that:
Too Much Of Nothing
The Basement Tapes
Official release: 1975
I remember a newspoll in the Australian the thursday of the 96 election, to the effect that it was “wait for it” now neck and neck. Even then, while hoping for a miracle I smelt a rat. It smacked far too much of an incentive to make sure you don’t take any risks with third parties and so forth.
I think regardless of why this poll shows a “cliff hanger” or indeed how, if there is genuine sentiment for change out there, this will only firm up the opposition’s support.
But with lh an kr both in Qld, and both touring 10% seats, their mail aint “teh narrowing” that’s for sure.
Watching a replay of “insight” is the greatest argument against compulsory voting I have ever seen. Mother of God some of these people are stupid. Evolution my ass :p
even if Newspoll comes out close to 50/50 that’s still 2 polls which are above 54% for the ALP.
So we have Galaxy and Newspoll below and ACN and Morgan above.
If we presume they will keep the same level of accuracy as the ‘04 election then it’s a pretty split bag, but I think Newspoll was the worst. This means we’d really be more inclined to weight slightly above Galaxy, so around 53.5%.
Of course, we can’t really know how accurate any of them are until the night.
Betfair is back out to Coalition $4.80 from $4.40 earlier today…
Anticipation of Newspoll???
anyone remember which electorates howard/latham visited in 2004 on their last day, and, perhaps of more relevance, which electorates howard/keating visited on their last day in 96?
if howard has been in leichdart then suuuurely that means something.
930 NP Always a raving Tory and always will be.
The odds of Labor winning 100+ seats on Portlandbet are now down to $8.50 – down from $101 two days ago…
If Howard gets back in it will confirm that appealing to peoples’ basest instincts of greed, racism and bigotry work.
Best contender for a national credo in the event of a return of the libs:
“Greed is good”
“I’m alright Jack, f*ck everyone else!”
“Racist bigotry is to be aspired to”
“The foreigners are coming and will steal our jobs then kill us all!”
“Live for today. The future of this planet’s not our problem. Let future generations deal with it”
“Workers are just fodder that can be bought and discarded at will and treated like shit as the lowlife scum they are”
I will thorughly despair for this country.
Personally I don’t care what the 2PP newspoll value is, I’ll be looking at the ALP primary vote. If it is less than 43 or 44 I will be worried. Otherwise I will be delighted.
Rudd Lovers don’t u remember the last newspoll of 2004….50-50 but we won 53-47 so even if it was 50-50 anything could happen including a big win for Mr Krudd. But also it could mean a cliff hanger
Looking at the Galaxy figures, does anyone believe that Family First went from “less than 1%” to 2.5% in the space of 2.5 weeks?
That’s the major change here. The Coalition primary only went up 0.5% which isn’t significant.
Glen, don’t assume it is a 50/50 – it could be anything (I’m still going for 53/47 national with 51/49 in marginals).
It may be a cliff hanger in terms of 2pp vote, but it won’t be a cliff hanger in terms of seats. Compulsory preferential stops that from happening.
Im not im just saying even if it was Labor more likely could do what we did in 2004, get 50-50 in the last newspoll but win 53-47 like we did. Either that or a cliff hanger.
Here’s a curious line from Rattus Rattus from the SMH article:
“No, certainly not, because I had things I wanted to do and many of them of course are part of our plans. The Murray-Darling water thing, if we are returned tomorrow I’m going to go back to the Victorian government and say ‘Look, the federal election is now over, can we stop this nonsense of the last year?’.”
So he will use an election victory to claim a mandate – here comes ‘SerfChoices II’
Does anyone know what the 2PP was from the Victorian election last year?
Coalition moved out again on Betfair to $4.90…
wasnt it 54-46?
937. regardless of such, all those in a democracy should be asked to participate, and to at least consider the foundation, and leadership, of their society once every three years. if they still dont want to participate drop a blank piece of paper in the box, but at least make it a conscious decision not to participate.
and on their stupidity… these people my not grasp the jargon and rhetoric of policy “speak”, but they daily make instinctive decisions to trust or not trust another person. we all learn that innate skill. sometimes they might not always get it right but i think they generally know when enough is enough.
Can we stop playing with imaginary and silly figures like 50-50?
Its only an hour away people.
Ok that’s it. I can’t handle it.
I’m not coming back to this site until the election’s decided.
Good luck to everyone, don’t torture yourselves too much over the next 24 hours.
William, thanks for your fantastic coverage. Your blog and one or two others have made this easily the most interesting election ever from a psephological (is that a word?) perspective.
And for Christ sake, just get rid of Howard.
No! It’s all coming true! The Preserved Head of John Howard!
I’ll be voting labor but not for the generally accepted reasons. I want the monarchist gone and the Republicans in charge of the Liberal Party. I also want change for change sake and a totally new epoch, life was getting boring politically.
Labor is generally all spin and bullshit on the unions, the economy and their conservative tag, however I hope that Rudd and Gillard are beholding enough to the electorate (and common sense), to hold back the die hard lefties in their ranks.
I predict an avalanche, Labor to win 100!
MGM
how about “aspirational racism”?
I think people are kidding themselves if they think Libs are back in the game or even close, REGARDLESS of what Newspoll produce in this poll. Seems some think 600,000 people have changed their mind in the one direction at the last moment.
If anything the flow will be away from Howard.
The last time AC Nielsen released its 55/45 the Galaxy guy was angry with them saying the ruined a good week for Howard [Galaxy having just released a favourable poll for Howard].
BUT it is good for Rudd if the rhetoric is of a close election as people are quite concerned about giving too much power to one side – that is the way they see it.
AN old lady on ABC News Radio said she was voting Green in the Senate because she wanted a ’split senate’, she said that was very very important. But she didn’t know who she was voting for otherwise.
Maybe Leichardt is where the Rattus will retire to, just checking the house prices, plenty of time from Sunday.
No movement on Centrebet – Coalition still $4.35.
903 Jyrki – not true. The Herald Sun (which carries the Galaxy poll) has the heading “Photo Finish”. Same thing isn’t it?
Swing Lowe
labor 100+ seats on Portland bet is the equal favourite result.
One significant item from the Kelly leaflet scam was that it was a liberal insider who tipped labor off with the exact details of what was going to happen and where.
There are quite a few inside the iberals and former liberals who want Howard and his far right mates voted out in a comprehensive manner so that they can regain control of their party.
The libs have been leaking info to labor since Rudd took over, some of it internal polling, some of it campaign tactics and some policy details.
Oh I hope JWH wins tomorrow! I’m a guest at a wedding tomorrow so if he does I’m going to get drunk and if he loses I’m going to get drunk, either way I’m gogin to get drunk!
Observer: Well the Atherton Tablelands is retirement heaven.
Sorry folks but I’ve seen nothing on any of the three polls to suggest anything other than a Labor landslide.
So it remains 85 seats on 53/47 minimum
The Australian’s website suggests Newspoll is pointing to a cliffhanger – results will be up at 4pm
If it turns out that Rudd gets 55% 2pp tomorrow, will The Austrailan sell NewsPoll and start up a new polling company?
Saying that an Australian federal election is going to be a cliff hanger, and that we will need recounts that will take a week is a HUGE call. It is so easy to be wrong in so many ways.
for all you wavereres-this article from express advocate (central coast nsw)should cheer you up
“local independent -doug eaton (exliberal) will preference the alp because it offered the best deal”
so stick that in ya pipe and smoke it.
i will call dobell now based on
the fact that eaton is ex liberal mayor and highly respected businessman
maybe 121 seats now!
I reckon we can pretty much predict the newspoll result:
national: 53-47
BUT: in the marginals the swing is less and Labor is projected to only win 17 marginal seats
therefore: “cliff-hanger”
Ha, yeah right.
ah 957 wok! I nearly fell out of my chair!
Just as a quick note, ACN was closest to the Vic state result last year. Although they slightly overestimated Coalition support.
Glen and JoM, good luck gentlemen. I hate your politics but I’d buy you a beer.
LNP now down to $4.25 at Centrebet. Looks like a fair bit of money has been dropped on these guys today.
973
Lose the election please Says:
November 23rd, 2007 at 3:14 pm
Just as a quick note, ACN was closest to the Vic state result last year. Although they slightly overestimated Coalition support.
I like you much more than you have come out. And the nickname is much more appropriate now..
Yep, something is up on Betfair.
In the last 20 minutes, the Coalition has gone from $4.80 to $5.10, with all the momentum going towards Labor
Sportingbet now has the Coalition at $4.00, down from $4.15 and the ALP is now $1.24…
977 swing lowe it must mean insiders info on newspoll
it happen last week as well
William,
Not that I’m one to limit freedom of expression – why not close the threads until 4.00pm AEDT ? Everyone could have a little break, get a cup of tea, a walk in the sunshine or something – and then go crazy over the Newspoll figures. Think of it as a contribution to public health.
Someone at The Australian is in cahoots with one of the bookies. The whole ‘cliffhanger’ thing is designed to get some money onto the Coalition so the bookies don’t get too badly burnt by a Labor landslide.
Chicken.
85 seats is hardly a landslide, nor is 53/47. It is a comfortable Labor victory, with similar comfort levels to 2001 & 2004 for the Coalition.
Considering Galaxy this morning, the commentators (with understandable reason) will conclude that ACNielsen was the rogue poll. Whether this plays out tomorrow will be interesting to say the least.
I’m sticking with ALP 86 LNP 62 IND 2 TPP 53/47.
Yep, the momentum is turning on Betfair now – down to $4.90…
Swing Lowe — then Bet Fair is moving in the opposite direction to Centrebet. Strange.
Poss has a new post up to calm the nervous nellies:
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/11/23/heading-in-the-right-direction/
That is perfect for it is in Victoria Labor would like to pick up an extra 0.5% and this will help.
You may have noticed The Australian and Courier Mail endorse Rudd – they are the two main Newspapers to influence Queenslanders – the area where Rudd can pick up a heap of seats.
The Telegraph endorses Rudd covers NSW, another place Rudd can pick up heaps of seats.
The Hun can endorse Howard as victoria is least important to Rudd and anyway ‘The Age’ has been spruiking Rudd all year.
In SA The Advertiser endorses Howard but it doesn’t matter they have made up their minds enough to deliver seats.
Now I get why the big swings in betfair – there’s practically no money behind the Coalition at $5 or $5.10. So it’s switching up and down there…
I think the possible outcomes tomorrow, in descending order of likelihood are as follows:
(1) A narrow Coalition victory, with a much reduced majority.
(2) A narrow Labor victory, by only a handful of seats.
(3) A comfortable Labor victory leading to a parliament approximating a mirror image of what it is today.
(4) A Labor landslide.
(5) A hung parliament.
Opinion polls are just bullshit they interview 1000 people whom are supposed to represent 13.5 million
The only thing 50/50 is Boothby – which Libs hold by 8%. Welcome to reality, Team Rodent.
We’re home!
Ive got the feet up, bong loaded, setting controls for the heart of the sun.
Wake me up for the count, muchachos.
Labor has just dropped from $1.23 to $1.21 on Portlandbet in the last 10 minutes. WTF is going on?
988 Swing Lowe — that’s the problem with BetFair probabilities. They do swing around a lot.
CAT, let me guess… you’re a Coalition supporter?
Does it matter what this next poll says? Or any of these polls over the last day or so?
There”ll be a poll tomorrow, with 13.6 million respondents, nil margin of error, 100% accurate.
RGee I would buy you a beer too mate!
Centrebet, Bennolong: Howard, $1.68; McKew, $2.05.. well in today, I believe
Thommo #930,
Pearson’s effectively saying “A pox on both your houses!” The day that any Aboriginal leader endorses Howard is the day that either a) they’ve been bought off, or b) there’s an ice-rink in hell.
MGM #943 – has a point.
The problem is, that these people (are now a minority @40% primary), have been shafted by 6 interest rate rised and serf choices and rising costs.
Howard is gone, and all you fascist liberal losers can suck on that and wallow in the mire while the uglies tear your party apart – what you deserve really for trying to tear Australia apart.
Rudd, though not impressive, by 12 Seats .
BTW, can someone tell me what LOL and LTEP stand for?
I’m a Geelong supporter and I was as nervous as hell before the Grand Final. I was at the game and felt physically ill just a few minutes before the first bounce thinking of all the things that could go wrong.
We played brilliantly from the first bounce and scored two goal from hard fast play. Port Adelaide got a goal or two and then we kicked two more blinders. In the second quarter we blew them away.
That’s how it will be tomorrow night. Fans who haven’t tasted success for many years often only see doom and gloom but this election will be won by Labor before the first quarter is over. The rest of the evening will be an exhibition for political junkies and boring as crap for everyone else.
Nostradamus@989, who are you, Gerard Henderson?
Btw, the only way you get a 2c movement in Sportingbet is if you drop $50000K plus on one side. Someone must have just dropped a commodity on the Coalition at $4.25…
This is not poll related, but I have posted the contents of a letter (In the La Trobe seat thread) sent to La Trobe constituents (me included) by a Bali Bombing survivor who was rescued by Rodney Cocks. The letter states that the smears spread by the Libs about Rodney’s military record are lies. It is pretty strong, might swing some late undecided voters.
Patho
That article by Poss also has a link to the article where Howard says he can sense it in the streets, the only one Howard is trying to convince is himself.
Quite pathetic really, Howard is more closetted than the queen the way the general public are kept from him, especially in his stage managed appearances where friendlies are lined up before hand.
LOL is Laugh Out Loud (indicating they thought the joke was funny.
LTEP is Lose The Election Please, the frequent poster.
Will@965
Been there once, I was about 9 I think, looked good then, but after 11 years of Howard and Costello, Ill be working until I’m 95 before I can retire.
JoM@964
‘gogin’ – WTF . On the turps already! Hope you don’t work forWoolworths – read your AWA lately.
Is someone keeping an eye out on Sky News? Coz they may get the leak again…
Sudoko Killer @ 999
LOL means, Laugh Out Loud
LTEP refers to ‘Lose The Election Please’ the name of a regular poster to this discussion.
Howard in press conf just in on Sky, going in hard on Rudd’s failure to go on Insiders.
Howard was on 1.65 earlier today, then went out to 1.72 an hour or two ago, now back to 1.68.
Plenty of bets being laid it seems.
I wonder how much of this is people laying off on bets they have already made in order to cover their a^se? If you’ve plonked a load of dosh on Labor in the past couple of weeks all this talk of ‘cliffhanger’ is bound to make you nervous.
Has anyone seen this?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H1lYCbjzQ4I
v.funny!
Yup, Arbie Jay, he’s completely stuffed – and I think he knows it. Somehow I always thought we were going to lose in ‘04. This time, we’re going to win, and win big.
Andrew Landeryou (www.andrewlanderyou.blogspot.com) has got the Newspoll – 52-48. If that’s right it makes things very interesting with Newspoll and Galaxy landing at the same point…
Sudoku
LOL stands for laugh out loud.
LTEP stands for, “Oh dear I don’t know who I am going to vote for, it is all so hard, but I think I will stay with the trustworthy Mr Howard or go for independent with family first”.
I want to know what Lose the Eeyore Please will say if Newspoll comes out at 4pm at 50-50…
CAT
I’m sure i’m not the only person thinking this….
but if you think that, then what the hell are you doing here?
no one will see any of what goes on this afternoon. friday nights are the lowest point in the news cycle. everyone is out doing stuff.
MM – 1017 – I agree
LTEP: You are what is commonly known as a “Internet Whore”. I suspect you’re are on this board 24 hours a day, enjoying all the attention!
Let me predict your reaction to possible scenarios:
HOWARD NARROWLY WINS: HA HA, I told you so, you should have listened to me
RUDD NARROWLY WINS: This can’t be right, the result will be overturned after recounts of postals and absentees
RUDD EASILY WINS: See above LOL
I am sure that the election will end up with a TPP Nationwide of about 53/47…I wouldn’t be too concerned with whatever newspoll comes out with – I reckon they will come in at 51.5/48.5 – just to keep Johnny happy and to protect themselves if the Libs scrape back in – this is all it is about – Polling companies trying to save their reputation. By hanging around the 52 mark they leave the result open.
If there is a mood for change in only a scattering of seats like the one I’m feeling here in Safe liberal (slightly inflated margin mind you) then i think ALP will win reasonably well. I’m sure there will be some recounts in seats like Mr O Shaunessy is suggesting – but Im not so sure it will be one that we are hanging onto too late tomorrow night.
As this will be my final post before the end of the Howard regime, I wish to record my thanks to William, for his brilliant site, and to you all for your wit, insights, your links to hot stories, your analysis, your predictions, your *hubris*, even for your invective… It’s been a fascinating ride, and great fun watching people chip away at eachother’s preconceptions. I don’t know if this site changed any votes -though it did record the growing up of both Glen and ESJ who, I must say, have moderated their ramblings considerably over the months, and have begun to sound almost reasonable. They have both been brave enough to hang in here and slug it out, and it looks like they’re big enough to admit defeat when it is about to step on their faces. Good for you, guys.
I suspect there are many like me who have used Pollbludger as therapy -knowing I can get a fix of optimism here at any hour, as well as some sound political reasoning. Hell, I’ve even enjoyed some of the whackier conspiracy theories aired here, but it is the voices of reason that have made the greatest impact on me. I especially thank Socrates and CL de Footscray, jasmine and Asanque, Swing Lowe, Just Me and Arbie Jay for their contributions.
Back on Monday (if my hangover’s gone) to read your Saturday night posts and enjoy the election all over again. -Ozymandias
Never mind the width, just feel the quality. Forget the polls. Howard is on Skynews right now. Just look at the desperation in his voice and face. Pleading to the undecided voters. Now, if you know you got a chance, that is not the kind of voice and body language you would display.
In addition, why is he storming around Queensland on the last day of the campaign? He knows he is on the nose in QLD big time. Dead man walking.
Where is Rudd? Relax and comfortable in sunny QLD. Labor will win, the only known or unknown or known known or unknown known or unknown unknown is HOW MANY!!!!