Roy Morgan has released a phone survey of 1670 voters including 1025 in hand-picked Coalition marginals. It shows Labor with an overall lead of 54.5-45.5 on two-party preferred, or 46.5 per cent to 40 per cent on the primary vote. The picture is somewhat better for the Coalition in the marginals, where the swing to Labor is 5.2 per cent compared with 7.2 per cent overall. Morgan aren’t done yet: the accompanying release tells us “the final Morgan Poll will be conducted tonight and released on election morning”.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Morgan: 54.5-45.5
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1,119 Comments
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Guys, my earwax is telling me that the Libs are going to win. It keeps building up everytime LTEP posts and I’m running out of cotton buds!
Newspoll is ensuring they make the 6pm TV news. If they are that excited, it sounds like the movement back to the Coalition might be significant.
Jordan 692
I can dig
? I’m voting Labor.
This really is the on-line equivalent of Big Brother (minus the turkey slapping). Congratulations on a great site, William.
BV Says:
November 23rd, 2007 at 11:35 am
Ron Brown, if you really did speak to Gary Morgan can you please call him back and ask him “is Australia heading in the ‘right direction’”?
Yes I DID speak to Gary Morgan this morning
Yes I did not know of a 2004 Morgan marginal poll & the 5.2% swing referred to IT
Yes I incorrectly took his 2007 51.5% marginal against 2004 ALP’s ACTUAL 47.26%
equals my 4.2%, whereas Morgan compared his 51.5% to his 2004 Marginal of 46.3
But in answer to your question , well I erroneously convinced Gary Morgan his release was mathematically wrong
My excuse is I was UNAWARE of a 2004 ‘marginal’ poll
but yes appologies , I forgot to ask him if we are heading in the right direction !
Yeah I noticed that. I must admit I have snapped up Howard at 1.72 at Centrebet. I still think he is going to lose, but I already had a fair bit of money riding on a Maxine McKew win and didn’t want Howard hanging on in Bennelong to spoil my night.
The upshot is an $80 loss if Howard holds Bennelong, and a $460 profit if Max wins. Not bad odds methinks!
Newspoll doesn’t do ‘half’ margins, so I’m guessing either 53/47 or 54/46.
692 Wait till the landslide against the Libs tomorrow night and then tell us how you feel.
alpal @ 563
Ta for that link. Good stuff.
BTW: ALP 89 seats.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/23/2099148.htm
Pollster tips cliffhanger, recounts
A polls analyst from Newspoll is expecting tomorrow’s federal election to be an extremely close contest and says it could be a week before a definitive result emerges.
Martin O’Shanessy says that, based on a poll to be published tomorrow, the result is certain to be a cliffhanger.
“I think we might find it very very close in those key marginal seats that we have to see and there may be a lot of recounts and protests around the edges,” he said.
“Vote coalition for job security: Howard” (Canberra Times)
Aaaaaahrg.
what was the last newspoll?
Yes, I too have been a longtime Labor voter but now I think they cannot win as Rudd is weak on the economy. He shouldn’t have made those rude remarks about that harmless pamphlet – that really turned off a lot of longtime Labour voters I know.
54/46
god you’re quick at responding SL
My predicition for Newspoll: 53.5/46.5
LTEP the Senator says its time to break cover and come home. Your work here is done, they are on to us. Well done to operate for so long behind enemy lines without support.
just had adiscussion with 2 of my collegues one is 35 with 2 kids and another about 25 and married…..both are voting liberal????….b/c tehy are worried about the economy apparantly……these are meant to be smart epopel, one of them even has a phd…….I just dont get it, how can they have no moral repulsion doing that????
and yes i know newspoll dont do half margins, but i think they might this time to try and make it seem closer for the govt
Forgive me if someone’s already posted this, but can anyone give any credence to this rather worrying item I found on Yahoo?
http://au.news.yahoo.com/071123/21/151s5.html
Kat – Its called show me the money
Btw, all of you who read signs about the direction of Newspoll depending on what time it is released are stupid (sorry, but I have to say it).
If you may recall, both the 53/47 and 55/45 newspolls were released at the exact same time – 9:50pm on Agenda the day before.
This one is coming early, because if it was released tomorrow, no one would care about it…
“THREE polls released on the election campaign’s last day have given wildly different results – and a Newspoll yet to be published tips a cliffhanger.
After a Galaxy poll had the Government within reach of a stunning come-from-behind win but AC Nielsen tipped a Labor landslide, Newspoll will tomorrow morning predict a “cliffhanger” that could mean the result will remain unclear for days.
Martin O’Shannessy, chief executive of Newspoll, said the latest poll, to be published in The Australian tomorrow, indicated a late surge for John Howard.”
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22806173-5013964,00.html
712 I thought you gave him more than enough support ESJ
kat – we all have different values
a guy at work who i talk to openly admits that values/morals etc have no impact on his vote. it’s about money to him
which is fine… makes life interesting
Edward,
Will LTEP qualify for protection under the Senator’s Witness Protection scheme?
MOE ffs
Swing Lowe, thanks for that insight – I didn’t realise I was stupid. Now it’s all so perfectly clear. What a waste of time becoming an actuary then… oh well. I guess I’ll have to vote Liberal now like all the other stupid people.
More from O’Shaughnessy:
and
Samuel K,
What I’m saying is that timing of release is not correlated with Newspoll results. I personally don’t care which party you vote for, just don’t use junk science to extrapolate predictions…
What’s with everyone automatically knocking 2% off the Labor figure – regardless of what it is – and insisting this is the REAL Labor figure? What about margin of error? Why can’t 55% actually just mean 55% once the Labor bias AND margin of error have been factored in?
The Australian Website reports that the latest Newspoll will be released at 4pm eastern summer time. http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au.
Ashley – the point is not that journos give all pollies a hard time; the point is that they tend to do it from a position of generally uncritical acceptance of the conventional wisdom. Thinsk how nice it would be were the pollsters to be interviewed by Possum? They’d have nowhere to hide at all.
Paisano – your analysis of keybaord styles will no-doubt produce many more examples of neurosis and fragmentation as the afternoon wears on into the evening …
Neophyte (707) Howard was talking about his OWN job.
Because that wouldn’t be exciting enough…
Morning folks!
One more sleep till judgment day
Jesus maddie, don’t you have cows to milk?
If any ALP supporter wants to feel good about themselves for a few minutes read this article:
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2007/11/22/1195321951483.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
Has someone got a handy reference to the election eve poll results from previous elections?
Agreed chinda. I really think it’s going to be a massacre.
Newpoll is covering its arse so, no matter what the result, it can say “told you so”.
Not everything is about scientific methods, Swing. Common sense dictates that the timing might be significant. My observation is that polls have leaked earlier in this campaign where they have shown some movement back to the Coalition – e.g. Galaxy.
What is your blog address Ron Brown?
Of course the Newspoll is showing movement back to the Coalition. What part of ‘late surge’ don’t you understand?
Knowing Newspoll that’ll be 53:47.
720
Michael Says:
November 23rd, 2007 at 1:42 pm
kat – we all have different values
a guy at work who i talk to openly admits that values/morals etc have no impact on his vote. it’s about money to him
which is fine… makes life interesting
Its not fine….b/c ist not even about ideologies any more, these peopel are so far from what a “liberal” actually means….they have turned this country into a selfish, intolerant, ego driven one………its just really makes me despair……….
Samuel K,
That’s because Galaxy is always leaked to Ch 10 news, which is the first major news bulletin to come out at 5pm. Newspoll always comes out at 9:50pm on Agenda, whilst ACN is often leaked sometime in between.
I don’t believe pollsters are trying to set a political agenda – they just time their leaks to get as much media exposure as possible. Newspoll, by leaking their results at 4pm today, ensures that their poll is covered in the 6pm bulletins – if it was leaked later, it would only come out on the late night news bulletins and in tomorrow’s papers, which would be useless as most people will never see or hear the results.
LTEP, no offence, but I’m kind of sick of seeing your username and accompanying pessimism every time I log onto to this site.
Can you give it a rest for a while and stop hogging the bandwith.
Hi Mad Cow,
Whats the feeling in deepest darkeest medowie today? The bookies certainly seems to think Arneman is in with a chance – in to $2.18 now.
BTW last night ran into Baldwin and his lib goons at Greenhills last night. Becuase he has been on TV som much my 5 year old to my etrnal shame went up to him and said “Hi Bob”. Bob put his hand out for a Hi-5 but then kept pulling his hand away and would not touch him. Smart arse!!
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