Roy Morgan has released a phone survey of 1670 voters including 1025 in hand-picked Coalition marginals. It shows Labor with an overall lead of 54.5-45.5 on two-party preferred, or 46.5 per cent to 40 per cent on the primary vote. The picture is somewhat better for the Coalition in the marginals, where the swing to Labor is 5.2 per cent compared with 7.2 per cent overall. Morgan aren’t done yet: the accompanying release tells us “the final Morgan Poll will be conducted tonight and released on election morning”.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Morgan: 54.5-45.5
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1,119 Comments
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Btw, what’s the odds that Newspoll will be released with 2 separate figures – 1 for the national TPP and another for the marginals TPP?
My Family breakdown of voting for tomorrow is:
Labor – 4
Liberal – 2
Undecided – 1
Dad is voting Labor for the FIRST time in his life. He is 68.
Good for him.
Yeah, it does give me the sh*ts when they repeat Liberal party mantra. I don’t think they do it because they are biased. I think they do it because they are not thinking critically enough.
I was delighted to see Kerry O’Brien take Howard to task on the economy the other night on the 7.30 report. Journalists should have been doing that for years, but you never hear anyone having a go at him like that because they are all too afraid of being cut off from the drip-feed of information and interviews.
Regardless of the last bunch of single polls – it is too late for dramatic changes [and there being no cause], dramatic changes only come on dramatic events like 9/11 – doesn’t matter what Newspoll says on one day of the year. It does matter what a group of polls have been pointing to during the election campaign; it WILL be 54% on election day. At the very worst – a comfortable Labor win.
SL (723) That article might have made me feel better if I’d been able to read it without that damned annoying Lib advert next to it, with its sliding texts and its flashing pictures. Any subliminals buried in that thing? Who’d be surprised if there were?
Newspoll is NOT being leaked at 4:00 it is being released at 4:00.
Lose the Eeyore Please, are you really voting for Family First or was that a joke?
Given polls are the topic, some may enjoy the cartoon from the Tiser today:
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/cartoonpopup/0,22639,5004760-32762,00.html
It was a joke, if you read a few posts above it I was merely responding to yet another claim I’m anything but what I purport to be. Someone with an independent mind who will be voting Labor.
For what it’s worth to Henry, I will not cease posting here without William’s request but I understand any claims you’ve made about bandwidth and will contribute to the upkeep of this site as necessary. My sincere apologies if my posts aren’t optimistic enough for your liking. In future I will try and include one ray of sunshine per post.
Rudd to win 127 seats in an historic landslide.
I’m with you there Swing Lowe. It’s all about the money, and spinning the results for maximum intrigue and entertainment. In this election campaign that means showing that Howard is in with a chance.
The Oz website says Newspoll will be released at 4pm
Australians like to flirt with Labor but rarely marry it.
Has it dawned on everyone else that only us tragics think “polls” in themselves are “news”.. ie that polls will make a difference to what people will actually vote? my thoughts are it won’t… further… it is good for the ALP for people to think it will be closer than it really is… people made their minds up some time ago…
what always gets me about these polls is why no one ever rings me… I am a quintessential mid 20’s voter… I really think they must have a lot of trouble getting people who don’t rely on a fixed line to answer these polls… as such I think there is an ingrained pro LNP bias in this election given that the “young” vote is so strongly behind KEVIN07… someone care to explain how they overcome this?
They definitely want to make news headlines at 6pm.
Ashley – exactly. One problem is that some of them think they are so important they can dictate the terms of engagement with pollies – Alan Jones is one, and I suspect Bazza the C thinks of himself similarly. In the US, these sort of people run the show. Here. less so, and Howard has been really good at ‘disciplining’ journos who don’t toe the line. However they’ve all been arking up a bit lately. I notice Michelle isn’t pulling her punches at all lately, Laurie O (the artist formally known as Jabba) is giving it to them big-time as the end looms, and Koutsoukis. But notice the more marginal ones (Annabelle Crabbe, Virginia Trioli) and their ilk still don’t know how to take them on. Although VT did trip up Reith over kids overboard. But that was like shooting a fish in a bucket, I guess.
My argument is for more engagement between people who know stuff and pollies, perhaps mediated by a journo. As Sean suggested, ‘Insiders’ with a panel of house-trained specialists (possum, some sensible economists, academics etc) would be a hoot for the serious minded (if as dull as the lawn bowls on tv for everyone else) but you would have to find a bunch of academics and so on with something like pizzazz. So it won’t happen, sadly. C’est la vie!
In case this has not been posted:
Labor leader Kevin Rudd will be elected next prime minister with a 6.8 per cent national swing against the Howard Government, a Ninemsn poll predicts.
In the largest poll of the 2007 election campaign, the Passion Pulse forecasts as many as 24 seats will swing Labor’s way on the back of a 53.4% two party preferred vote.
The Prime Minister will lose his seat to Maxine McKew while the result in his chosen successor Peter Costello’s electorate of Higgins will be too close to call.
The Passion Pulse is based on ninemsn’s online surveying of 86,763 people through the campaign and puts the following seats in play:
BenC, Jim is still 2.10 on sportingbet, which gives him about 55/45 against.
I think he’s 60/40 in favor.
Medowie is a strangely quiet place today. Looks like people have something on their mind.
Rumor has it that pre polling has swung heavily to Labor. Rumor also has it that the RAAF guys are swinging too (not that that bunch will ever get to 50/50 but the swing is in Labor’s favor).
Down with Bob.. down with Bob…
Cool LTEP – things are moving too fast to keep up!
Have you tried changing your deodorant?
So will Newspoll be 50/50?
Betting market movements at Portlandbet:
In favour of Coalition:
Bennelong ($2.07 to $2.15)
Dobell ($1.14 to $1.16)
Eden-Monaro ($1.12 to $1.14)
Wentworth ($2.50 to $2.65)
To Labor:
Cowper ($2.70 to $2.65)
Hughes ($2.65 to $2.45)
Lowe ($1.07 to $1.02)
Macarthur ($2.70 to $2.58)
North Sydney ($4 to $3.95)
Paterson ($2.20 to $2.18)
Page ($1.53 to $1.46)
To IND:
Calare ($5 to $4.25)
Parkes (something to $5.50, but I know it’s a move towards the IND)
And that’s just in NSW from the top of my head. Still quite a bit of volatility out there
Not asking for a ray of sunshine in your posts LTEP, less posting will suffice thanks.
Yep, I think you’re right. The 2PP will be officially the epitaph of the government, but the will provide a marginal poll (with huge MOE per seat of course) to cover their ass and say it will be ‘tight’.
Of course it will be frigging tight in the marginals!!!! THEY ARE MARGINALS!!!!
My old man called me, just did his pre-poll out in Aston. He voted 1 Greens in both, pref Labor in Reps. Mum voted 1 Greens senate, 1 Labor Reps, having voted Libs in ‘04 (due to her school being on Latham’s list). Very proud of them both.
In the office the undecideds are splitting 8-1 in favour of the ALP, 7 of the 9 voted Libs in ‘04. The singular vote for the Libs is more against Rudd (she thinks he’s a smart-ass) than for Howard. But it’s in a safe Labor seat so no worries there. No-one I’ve spoken to gives a rats about ‘local issues’, and barely any had heard of their local members before the campaign started. This is a professional office, everyone with degrees, and although a fairly creative field (architecture) there’s a strong anti-union sentiment amongst most in the office.
I’m living in a dualism at the moment. Head says Labor easily, heart says that zombie Howard and his undead goons will somehow claw through the electoral coffin.
But then I’ll be out there tomorrow trying to help Adam Bandt knock off Lindsey Tanner here in Melbourne so I can’t be too pro-Labor
re: Ozymandias @ #748
To get rid of the annoying Lib adverts, just disable javascript in your browser settings. Then refresh the page.
Swing Lowe – So Nairn is now raging favourite in EM?
Say it aint so Joe!
Dario @ 766,
The more I read O’Shaughnessy’s remarks, the more it strengthens my belief that two sets of figures will be released. Expect a 53/47 TPP result, with a 51/49 result in the marginals (or something along those lines).
Adam Bandt? Now there’s a choice for commonsense.
Henry @ 769,
No – Labor has gone from $1.12 to $1.14 – it means there’s been some movement back to the Coalition but Labor is still the heavy favourite…
I’ve been surprised that we haven’t seen more positive ads from Labor in the last week (before wed). They went pretty negative, which kind of reduces it down to ‘my scare campaign is scarier than yours’.
I think they should have done a few more positive ads on health and education.
Anyone know the whereabouts of the Galaxy poll table. We’ve had some dribbles from News Ltd. But that’s all. I can’t find it anywhere.
Bit sus if no sample number and moe. And with each side sitting on 42.5% primary would be nice for something to back it up.
I guess we’ll have to take their word for it, eh? And Galaxy wouldn’t cheat, would they?
oldtimer @ 626
Gidday oldtimer! Long in the tooth myself and bear the scars. Never fear – it’s on! There are too many indicators and the pro-Rudd endorsements from such unlikely rags as the Daily Telegraph and the Australian probably indicate the state of affairs. Also the SMH. Cheers!
Everyone remember this, Geeks rule the world! Steve Jobs, Bill Gates are geeks. It’s time for us geeks to stand up and start a revolution, a geek revolution. Support the closest leader we have as a geek, Kevin Rudd.
Ah thanks SL.
What’s Murph paying in Lowe these days, $1.00000001??!![url=http://www.videowhip.co.uk][img]http://starwarsloser.info/smile/happy/happy0204.gif[/img][/url]
Does this smiley work??
byce IIRC the sample size for galaxy was a bit over 1000. ACN on the other hand did both a phone poll of about 2500 and an online poll of 1000 or so, so combined 3500 for ACN, and the online and phone polls both showed 57-43
Voting for the money – what money would that be? The pittance that Howard tosses back as welfare is miniscule to me. If Rattus Rattus does manage to squeak across the line, lots of people will get it in the neck with SerfChoices and AWAs. Most businesses won’t be able to restrain themselves. Howard will have only 6 months before the Senate changes so he’ll scrape up every insipid piece of legislation that he has ever thought of, and ram it through. And $weetie, screwed over again. Howard will say that HE made the difference that people voted for John Howard, and he’ll stay another 3 years – $weetie better get himself a supersize KY Jelly.
obviously not…
Yep, 2 bob each way for sure. Totally agree we could be seeing a 53/47 accompanied by a “cliffhanger” 51/49 marginal result… which isn’t really the cliffhanger it makes out, because Labor will pick up some safe seats too.
BrissyRod @ 771: Bandt is the first local candidate I’ve heard speak and actually been interested in campaigning for. As opposed to Tanner who’s not much use as a local member. But as long as we get above the no-name Libs candidate I’ll be happy.
My opinion?
The ‘late surge’ won’t be in 2pp much. probably 53-47.
But Newspoll will argue some sort of less than average swing in the marginals.
Just remember a few things:
Howard and Rudd haven’t been campaigning in 5-10% margin seats a lot for fun. Indeed, Howard was in 10% Leichardt just today.
If Rudd couldn’t pull off a win with the huge lead he had at the start of the campaign, then he probably would never have made a great PM anyway.
“Newspoll says Cliffhanger – results here 4pm” from the front page of the Oz.
BTW, if anyone needs some light entertainment I have updated my website link
I understand prepolls in Forster area ran 50/50 for first time in years. Fingers still crossed for Jim Arneman
Su H, got any other figures?
4.00 pm release by Newspol means that it will get mentioned on the nighly news but the stories by PaulB Laurie and the guy from 7 will be largely bedded down I would imagine. So there may be leaks before them if NewsPoll leak to the TV’s to really get in the stories. But all of it is marginal unless it is 51/49 or worse.
782 – I am happy for the Greens to increase their vote. But not at the expense of Mr Tanner.
sorry – as a long time Labor voter I just can bring myself to support the Greens. I will be voting below the line in the Senate this time.
“Now only at the end do the pathetic Labor fools realise their failure”
- Crosby/Textor 23rd November 2007
Oh – and don’t forget!
Polls are not there for our entertainment.
They are there to sell newspapers.
Which will sell more papers?
A poll which suggests the race could be tight and go down to the wire?
Or a pool which simply agrees with the trend and what everyone has been saying all year – that the Government will be smashed?
For Pete’s sake there’s only one day to go. Do we really have to ask LTEP to censor himself at this late stage. If you don’t like his comments don’t read them. After tomorrow night everything will change and he’ll either be right in his negativity or wonderfully wrong.
I just got a green leaflet saying nasty misleading things about Greens & on the supposed threat of them holding B.of P. in Senate. It is misleading in that it’s green, clearly intended to imply that is leaflet from Greens. Is authorised, address I believe is Libs Office in Adelaide. No identification of Libs on it, however. Southcott, lib member here in BOOTHBY knew about it & said he agreed with it all on local ABC here. I’m disgusted. The scare tactics have arrived in Boothby, so seems the recent polling that has the seat on a knife edge is accurate. I have been getting a series of letters, today 3 from libs, 2 from labor. Southcott has never, ever been this active (& that’s a core promise). Had to laugh at his assertion Libs to hold State Govts. to account, they wouldn’t know what accountability is, roll on the bloodbath.
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