Roy Morgan has released a phone survey of 1670 voters including 1025 in hand-picked Coalition marginals. It shows Labor with an overall lead of 54.5-45.5 on two-party preferred, or 46.5 per cent to 40 per cent on the primary vote. The picture is somewhat better for the Coalition in the marginals, where the swing to Labor is 5.2 per cent compared with 7.2 per cent overall. Morgan aren’t done yet: the accompanying release tells us “the final Morgan Poll will be conducted tonight and released on election morning”.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Morgan: 54.5-45.5
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1,119 Comments
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I think that’s the funniest thing Tabitha has ever said
O’Shaughnessy’s comments about the swings not being even might explain the divergence in the polls so far
This is a cracker:
“How to give out HTVs”
I’ll follow their advice tomorrow!
Paul K, he wasn’t asking me to censor myself but to post less often. Which I can do.
Labor to win Mallee
http://pulse.ninemsn.com.au/forecast/
Now says Labor are going to win 24 with 11 too close to call.
Earlier this week it said Labor was going to win 21.
Early last week it said Labor was going to win 19.
Brissy Rod, i’ll buy your dad a beer for his first real vote.
Tabitha,
On Monday we’re sending the Union Bosses over to “talk” with you about your “re-education” course.
ShowsOn, unless they explain their methodology all I can say about passion pulse is its too volatile. Every time I look at it, the swings dip and sway like the bars on an equaliser.
790
Tabitha Says:
November 23rd, 2007 at 2:13 pm
“Now only at the end does that pathetic Old Fool realise he forgot to take his viagra medication.”
- Crosby/Textor 23rd November 2007
I’m nervous about this “cliffhanger” newspoll due to be published in the Australian this afternoon. I don’t want to be pessimistic, but I think we’ve been down this path before. I only hope it ain’t so.
Howard has not exactly had a good week in his campaign and yet, on election eve, he is within millimetres of victory. Perhaps Krudd was doomed from the start.
Ralp – we have never been down this path before. It’s teh day before the election.
Oh dear have I cursed another Labor victory?
You consider half a million votes millimetres?
No.
John Hunt, you miss the joke. Its a quote from Star Wars. The emperor says that not long before he ends up getting vaporised.
Gezza – an Adelaide Uni poll of 800 people in Boothby suggest a 50-50 deadlock.
Mr Nostradaime
Only if you believe Galaxy.
If you believe ACN he’s around 28 hours from oblivion.
2010 everyone, 2010………. is but 1095 days away……………
jc sez:
How many different ways can you say “Will you have fries with that?”
Yep, Ralph, never been down this path before.
Last election Newspoll on the eve of the election had a 50/50 result didn’t they? And look how that turned out.
Just heard Howard on Kellygate again on Radio National; what’s striking is the lack of moral outrage. No moral bone in his body.
If Labor does drop in tomorrow’s Newspoll, well that would make perfect sense wouldn’t it?.
I mean it has after all been a shockingly bad week for Labor…oh wait that would be the Coalition. So please tell me again why should Labor drop in the polls? Are they only polling morons now?.
Oh, by the way, who remembers 2004?
Where Newspoll also called a cliffhanger?
50/50?
816 – ‘Are they only polling morons now?’
LOL
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/polls.shtml
Looks fine to me folks.
no mad cow you missed the joke – howard can’t get it up…in time for the poll
I think the accusations of Insiders being a Pro-Howard program say more about the bias of the posters on this site!
Paul Kelly notwithstanding, Barrie seems to be pretty even handed, and the three journos are more often all centre/left than centre/right. I’ve seen plenty of eps with Marr, Megalogenis and Toohey, or Middleton, Price and Milne. How often are Bolt and Akerman on at the same time? Bolt and Henderson? All three? Ever happened?
Shame they don’t repeat it on ABC2 on Sunday nights anymore. I hate having to get up early…
(Andrew – $200.00 on the Coalition to hang on)
did newspoll reallly have 50/50 last election eve?
Gezza @ 793
Were you able to listen all morning to mattndave from Boothby ? Can you confirm a poll by Flinders Uni (?) that has Boothby “too close to call” ?
Go Nicole !
The numbers have all been pointing in the right direction thus far. But, the talk of the cliffhanger newspoll has spooked me a little. It’s hard to believe that people are rushing back to the rodent at the last minute. However, I’m confident the people will make the right decision tomorrow. Undoubtedly, the general feeling in the community is that Howard’s been a fairly decent PM, but he’s had his day and it’s time for a new bloke. I can only hope that people that sentiment with them into the ballot box.
We should all remember that the final Newspoll was released on election day 2004 was out by 2.7% at the last election. That’s not a very good record for final poll accuracy.
John Hunt the only drug he needs is HCN.
It might be a Coalition-friendly sample. It might be that there’s a huge surge for Howard because they all feel sorry for him. Who knows?
Polls are not absolute, nor are they perfect. I like to overanalyse polls as much as everybody else, but to obsess and engage in microanalysis over individual poll results is silly.
Newspoll is so cruel.
Theyve done it time and time again, try and make the Coalition look better when they most need it.
I just take comfort in that last time they said 50-50. Gosh I’m gonna have trouble sleeping tonight
Afternoon bludgers from sunny Broken Hill. Is the GG they delivered to BH the same as the real one or was it a Lindsay-style practical joke? It endorsed Ruddski. WTF is going on?
Jordan,
If true (Boothby 50/50), that is great for Labor. apart from being a 5% swing in itself, it represents a 2% improvement since the previous Boothby poll, where up till now the reported swing has been below the average for South Australia. If that carries across Adelaide, Mia Handshin will win Sturt as well. Hurray
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/23/2099148.htm
Funny how 52-48 is “panic stations”. Does anyone ACTUALLY think that Labor will get 55 2PP tomorrow?
This might be a song to listen to tomorrow night as well
From Elton John – Can You Feel The Love Tonight?
(Chorus)
And can you feel the love tonight?
It is where we are
It’s enough for this wide-eyed wanderer
That we got this far
And can you feel the love tonight
How it’s laid to rest?
It’s enough to make kings and vagabonds
Believe the very best
Yes, at SunCorp Stadium the wide-eyed wanderers of 11+ years in the ALP wilderness will definitely feel the love tomorrow night and will definitely be believing the very best for the future
Not much longer to go folks. Don’t let the last opinion polls get you down or worried. Just feel the love tomorrow night
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PkGDrV_2ehI
Yes Edward, it’s all about you. The Universe is only interested in what you say and do.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/tides-turning-pm/2007/11/23/1195753279860.html
The tide is “coming back” to the coalition strongly enough for it to win tomorrow’s election, Prime Minister John Howard said today.
Top story online
To all those predicting a landslide ALP victory, I issue this reminder: never underestimate the cupidity, timidity, shortsightedness or traditionalism of the electorate as a whole. Also never overestimate its collective intelligence or willingness to see the truth. Despite this extremely damaging week for the Coalition, I’m still predicting Rattus Falsehoodinus to scrape in. The only way that JWH was going to be voted out, after having perfected the application of election bribes (like throwing scraps to the pigs), was if he was caugght in bed with an underage partner.
Democracy is a device that ensures we shall be governed no better than we deserve. – George Bernard Shaw, playwright.
In case you fail to notice, my opinion of my fellow Australians could use some improvement. But that’s due to experience with them, at the 1996, 1998, 2001 and 2004 elections.
My prediction stands: Coalition with 78-80 seats.
The last Boothby Advertiser Poll was flawed because it distributed preferences 60/40 to Labor (which was the split at last election). I think it will be higher than that tomorrow, perhaps 70 or even 75%.
If that is the case, Cornes will get over the line on preferences.
Re 832,
“Jordan Says:
November 23rd, 2007 at 2:27 pm
Funny how 52-48 is “panic stations”. Does anyone ACTUALLY think that Labor will get 55 2PP tomorrow?”
Yes
I believe ACN poll over all others Jordan 832 and I am mightily spooked by getting anything less than 100 seats.
Small Boothby poll conducted by Adelaide university:
http://www.abc.net.au/adelaide/stories/s2099106.htm
LOL. Not as much difficulty as the punter who put $160,000 on Labor last week.
As confident as I am that Labor will win, with $160,000 on the line I would be freaking out slightly.
The critical thing about the Boothby poll from the Advertiser was it showed the greens at 9%. This is significant, and a potentially huge supply of 2PP for Cornes. If Cornes can get around 36-37% of the primary, she may stand a very good chance. She may even need less if the greens votes pops above 10%.
I hope more of this is not happening around the country…
Was speaking to the admin girl at work at morning tea this morning. She’s mid-40s, not overly blessed with intelligence and I dare say not in tune with politics. Was having a discussion about the election and a few people jumped in with stuff about Johnny packing his bags. But the admin lady says something along the lines of “I think Howard’s done a pretty good job, I just don’t know why we need to change”. I really worry that people out in the suburbs who don’t give a rats about politics (most of them) will just get cold feet at the last minute and go for the ’safety’ option. If there is a chance that Labor won’t get up, that’s it in my opinion.
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