Roy Morgan has released a phone survey of 1670 voters including 1025 in hand-picked Coalition marginals. It shows Labor with an overall lead of 54.5-45.5 on two-party preferred, or 46.5 per cent to 40 per cent on the primary vote. The picture is somewhat better for the Coalition in the marginals, where the swing to Labor is 5.2 per cent compared with 7.2 per cent overall. Morgan aren’t done yet: the accompanying release tells us “the final Morgan Poll will be conducted tonight and released on election morning”.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Morgan: 54.5-45.5
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Not long to go now until the end of Rattus. Can’t wait for tomorrow night 6PM!!!
Jordan, you were the one panicking earlier remember?
Has newpoll leaked iedy?
#840, the Boothby poll from Adelaide Uni was from last week, Nov. 15.
Neo
“Just heard Howard on Kellygate again on Radio National; what’s striking is the lack of moral outrage. No moral bone in his body.”
What I’m surprised about is that Humphries did a similar thing in the ACT with Costello’s support and it hasn’t got as much coverage.
Senator Gary Humphries was also under fire today for distributing a pamphlet linking Labor frontbencher Lindsay Tanner to radical Greens policy to decriminalise illegal drugs.
But he stood by a pamphlet that did not feature any Liberal Party logo, instead featuring a photograph of senior Labor MP Lindsay Tanner who is quoted as saying, “in order to form government we might have to do some of the things they want.”
Callers to local radio in Canberra stated the flyer was confusing and was designed to appear as if it was endorsed by Mr Tanner.
Treasurer Peter Costello also defended the pamphlets
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22803835-5014046,00.html
Why does anyone take this cliffhanger nonsense seriously. We are dealing with a government that has told ANY LIE to cling to office – from the economy (record low interest rates) to matters of national security (Haneef, SEIVE X and Iraq). Does anyone think they won’t call in favours from mates to lie about polls? Ignore Galaxy, LTEP and Newspoll “cliffhangers”. AC Neilsen are professional pollsters, not politicians. They wouldn’t put their names on something they thought was false. AC Neilsen 57/43 means best case 55/45 win to Labor.
Has anyone seen all of the jaded Tories tearing shreads off David Penberthy on his blog today?
If I was a Liberal party member I would be trying to get rid of this vitriolic hard right element that has taken over the party. They have adopted a style of politics (US Republican) that just doesn’t work in this country.
Heres to a long reign in opposition for the Australian Tories!
Newspoll: Think about it from a marketing point of view.
They will do everything they possibly can to frame the information they release today (as opposed to the full poll info tomorrow) to try to create interest in the poll, thereby encouraging people to buy The Australian.
It is that simple. Putting out a poll that suggests “same old, same old” would be dumb commercially so they are really tailoring the think to breathe some life into the contest.
I think ACN has gone out on a bigger limb than Galaxy. For ACN to be right, they need to get an massively unprecedented result… if they have picked it they will be polling gods for the next 3 years.
But if the end result is between 53-54% then Galaxy won’t look too bad (maybe only 1.5% off) but ACN will be way out. Ouch.
Morgan has gone for the safest option on 54.5. I bet he didn’t even do a poll… probably just took the average of the past 10 polls we’ve had.
Andrew 821 – I agree with you. I watch Insiders most weeks and I think Cassidy is fairly well balanced. The producers try to even up the panels – eg Bolt and Ackerman never appear together. Pity Matt Price is mia at present, George Mega is always informative. Someone here earlier said the show could be improved by including a non journo on the panel – I think that would be an improvement.
We already are in a long reign of opposition for the Coalition ND duh!
We just dont wanna lose the last thing we got!
Newspoll 52-48 i think
845 – i know. i dont know what im thinking. one minute i think labor has it in the bag, the next minute i think howard will get in. Im now regretting coming to this forum!
Yes. And I’m being serious.
“Newspoll says cliffhanger: full results 4 PM”
Headline on The Australian website now
Are some of you afraid of winning or are you so jaded after 11 years in the wilderness that you cant accept that Labor will win? There has not been a single poll or a single respected analyst which shows anything else will happen. Labor will win as predicted by Possum, Jackman etc. The TPP will be 54-46 with about 80-85 seats. I understand your agony but look at it rationally and ignore the emotion.
Matthew @ 847 – the web page says the Boothby poll was conducted on Monday 19 November and Wednesday 21 November. That makes sense given 891 did their live broadcast from Boothby today (23rd).
Cheers
Matthew 847
Thanks I didn’t kow that. In that case though, its even better. From that position the Liberal scandals since might get Nicole over the line.
YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
its gonna be close i told u guys i told ya’ll it would be a squeaker who ever win!
This will only help Rudd. He’s already in front.
The WORST outcome for voters would be going through ANOTHER entire election campaign and election in 3 months time.
Oh, and Matthew – this Boothby poll gives the Greens more than 10% fp – 11.1% actually. Keep in mind this is a tiny 442 sample.
Go Nicole !
unless ACN is correct Glen. (and mind you that’s 2 ACNs, phone and net)
Or Morgan.
Clifhanger means 52-48 or 51-49 or even 50-50 (which would be bullbutter IMHO)…
SWEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEET
Diogenes #848,
#2 for me – I’m disillusioned with the (lack of) capacity of the Australian public to look beyond the next tax cut, never mind the next ten years.
Anyways polls are bull butter. It’ll come down to Saturday LTEP as u say.
Which is their usual 7 – 8, plus 2 – 3 who don’t want to give Cornes their first preference.
Poor LNP supporters. Their hopes are going to be raised, and then crushed. Rather like supporters of the England football team really.
What, does he think he’s King Cnut or something and is attempting to control the tides?
(NB: I’m aware that the thing about Cnut holding back the tide is often misinterpreted, it was more an attempt to show his court, though his failure to do so, that he was human after all.)
Exactly.
If I don’t get to say it tomorrow – happy Democracy Day Glenie – Enjoy the miracle of Democracy at work in the greatest country this planet has.
Glen, are you starting to practice you “nya nya nye nya nya’s” yet?
At this point, who really cares about Newspoll – the reall poll is tomorrow!!
Mad Cow – no and it is hard to get any feelings from my own area which is a bit mixed. Self-funded retirees and tradies on small holdings, many in the village on welfare payments and people working in Taree/Forster. Although a few more have spoken to me about wanting a change I can’t push it further than that. Some I didn’t expect to change are saying they will but there are still a lot of There are a lot of ‘rednecks’. They loved Howards’ let-them-sink attitude to Tampa which horrified me and the other big thing is the aboriginal question. Many just want them eliminated. So although I have big community involvement since retiring it seems those of us who are die-hard softies seem to group together to do things. Very difficult to get a clear feeling one way or the other. However, Jim Arneman walked the streets of the Village and I know one shop owner who has changed her vote because he took the time to return to her with a pamphlet outlining a policy that she was interested in. I am like you – just sitting here nervously hoping Jim will cross the line. Will be handing out and scrutineering tomorrow.
I think NewsPoll will be 53/47 and they’ll talk up swings in the “wrong” seats.
Absolutely right. Let’s all close our browsers and come back online on Sunday.
NOT!!!!!
Diogenes @ 858 has said it well.
To me, it’s like the ALP has tried to run this same race 4 times previously, and it’s suffered losses of varying magnitude. It’s like watching sad sack teams like South Sydney in the NRL or Richmond in the AFL – they get to a point where they are in a position to win matches but somehow manage to f*ck it up. That’s what losing does. Now we’re in the final few steps to the finishing line, the jitters are here again. If they can fall over the line for a win, confidence will return and most likely there will be a few more wins ahead. If they lose, they must be doubting their ability to ever win a contest. Having said all that, I’m firmly crossing fingers for an ALP win tomorrow.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BEmnlqArPVo if newspoll means it will be a tight election.
Ashley I tried. I don’t have the willpower. I will be refreshing like a demon for the next 30 hours.
Ian @859, the headline of Last Update: Thursday, November 15, 2007. 9:00am ACDT at the top of the article was putting me off. My apologies.
In which case I will laugh at them in the following manner:
[deep booming voice] Mmuuuuuaaaahaaaaahaaaaa! Fools!
MGM no im just happy that if we lose it wont be by much and we have an outside chance of winning, how can i gloat when Labor have been ahead for a year.
I’ll be signing off now. I have read often and posted rarely. I honestly don’t know where you all get the time!
I’ll be away from a computer from now until after we know the result.
It’s been good for a natural pessimist like me to come here and be cheered up.
However, in the end you’ve all failed to convince me. Coalition to sneak in with 76 seats on about 48.2% of the TPP vote.
Howard to ride off into retirement as a Tory legend. 3 more years of miserable government for the wealthy maintained by massive bribes at every election. The sickening sight of Alexander Downer gloating for 3 years.
Oh well it’s been fun to imagine a different result but in the end.
Always back self-interest it’s the only horse that always tries – Jack Lang.
Remember Canada…..
STEPHANIE LEVITZ, CANADIAN PRESS
Ottawa – Canada’s electorate appears to have confounded the pollsters. Weeks of speculation, number crunching and supper-hour phone calls to more than 25,000 Canadians over the last five weeks meant little in the end as the Liberals beat projections that they were headed for a sound thrashing in the election…
June 2004
Show’s On, Im going to have to recycle my Boothby prediction from last weekend now after the 11% green’s vote in the Adelaide Uni ABC Boothby poll:
“The green vote last time was 7%, which is fairly decent. I suspect it will be much higher this time, easily getting over 10%. In fact, I’m going to go out on a limb here and predict 12% !”
You’re placing an awful lot of emphasis on one poll. “Cliffhanger” probably means they pulled back one point or something, but we’ll find out soon enough.
Medical alert:
Those with jangled nerves, dicky tickers, RSI, high blood pressure and any of the many variations of “Oh-my-God-John-Howard-has-got-in-again-I-am-leaving-the-country” syndrome please close down your computer now. Take a long walk. Get a good night’s sleep. Worrying will change nothing.
Thank-you.
Sean
The tide is “coming back” to the coalition strongly enough for it to win tomorrow’s election, Prime Minister John Howard said today.
That story is actually quite funny, has a picture of Howard surrounded by his goons and bodyguards, all looking totally morose, in the background are protestors holding up signds re climate change and Work Choices.
And Howard says “I believe that there is a bit of a tide coming back. I sense it in the streets.”
Priceless
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/tides-turning-pm/2007/11/23/1195753279860.html
Oh cmon even if this poll is 52-48 or 51-48 Labor have been ahead for all this year and still have a better chance of winning. Still if the ‘NARROWING’ has occured it may have come too late to save Howie. Im happy the election will be a squeaker though if galaxy and newspoll are correct.
jc another architect huh?
Fairly strong Labor office. The principle despises the Rodent.
We have a young woman who is your typical disengaged youth. Hasn’t got a clue. Even asked who she “should” vote for. I don’t advocate (sorry – I’d rather people think for themselves). She said she doesn’t know who she’s voting for – but leaning to Club Vermin. Said “it looks like Rudd is going to spend a lot of money”???? The Union Bogey Man also got a run. At that point I did say ‘who do you think fought for equal pay for women – the unions or business?’ But left it at that.
Oh well, she lives in Hughes, so probably no harm in the end.
If the Greens get 12, then Boothby is in the bag.
Exactly Flash, regardless of the poll to be released it’s not going to change the election outcome. There’s nothing that can be done now and whatever happens happens.
What’s the point of rigging or nobbling a poll this close to the election?
I can’t see why a polling organisation would trash their reputation by distorting results, or even by asking push-polling type questions. There’s too much to lose.
No, I think each polling company thinks they have it right and are going for bragging rights on the day.
As Possum says, it comes down to “house bias”.
There’s been a lot of talk about how Newspoll and Galaxy are supposed to be pro-Coalition, and how ACN and Morgan seem to be pro-Labor in their biases. But we really don’t know which proposition is right, do we? The figures have not been tested in an actual “live” election, and can’t be until tomorrow (at the earliest).
As for my personal prediction: I think those waverers, when they finally have the stubby pencil in their claws, will consider that Howard is going soon, will remember the Costello smirk, the abbot foot in the abbott mouth, the flouncing bitchiness of Downer, the zombie-like mask of Ruddock and the Inquisitorial, pasty faced pallor of Andrews and will resolve to be rid of them in one short, foul stroke of the pen.
Labor to win with 83 seats and about 53.4% of the 2PP vote.
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