Roy Morgan has released a phone survey of 1670 voters including 1025 in hand-picked Coalition marginals. It shows Labor with an overall lead of 54.5-45.5 on two-party preferred, or 46.5 per cent to 40 per cent on the primary vote. The picture is somewhat better for the Coalition in the marginals, where the swing to Labor is 5.2 per cent compared with 7.2 per cent overall. Morgan aren’t done yet: the accompanying release tells us “the final Morgan Poll will be conducted tonight and released on election morning”.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Morgan: 54.5-45.5
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1,119 Comments
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Does anyone know what the 2PP was from the Victorian election last year?
Coalition moved out again on Betfair to $4.90…
wasnt it 54-46?
937. regardless of such, all those in a democracy should be asked to participate, and to at least consider the foundation, and leadership, of their society once every three years. if they still dont want to participate drop a blank piece of paper in the box, but at least make it a conscious decision not to participate.
and on their stupidity… these people my not grasp the jargon and rhetoric of policy “speak”, but they daily make instinctive decisions to trust or not trust another person. we all learn that innate skill. sometimes they might not always get it right but i think they generally know when enough is enough.
Can we stop playing with imaginary and silly figures like 50-50?
Its only an hour away people.
Ok that’s it. I can’t handle it.
I’m not coming back to this site until the election’s decided.
Good luck to everyone, don’t torture yourselves too much over the next 24 hours.
William, thanks for your fantastic coverage. Your blog and one or two others have made this easily the most interesting election ever from a psephological (is that a word?) perspective.
And for Christ sake, just get rid of Howard.
No! It’s all coming true! The Preserved Head of John Howard!
I’ll be voting labor but not for the generally accepted reasons. I want the monarchist gone and the Republicans in charge of the Liberal Party. I also want change for change sake and a totally new epoch, life was getting boring politically.
Labor is generally all spin and bullshit on the unions, the economy and their conservative tag, however I hope that Rudd and Gillard are beholding enough to the electorate (and common sense), to hold back the die hard lefties in their ranks.
I predict an avalanche, Labor to win 100!
MGM
how about “aspirational racism”?
I think people are kidding themselves if they think Libs are back in the game or even close, REGARDLESS of what Newspoll produce in this poll. Seems some think 600,000 people have changed their mind in the one direction at the last moment.
If anything the flow will be away from Howard.
The last time AC Nielsen released its 55/45 the Galaxy guy was angry with them saying the ruined a good week for Howard [Galaxy having just released a favourable poll for Howard].
BUT it is good for Rudd if the rhetoric is of a close election as people are quite concerned about giving too much power to one side – that is the way they see it.
AN old lady on ABC News Radio said she was voting Green in the Senate because she wanted a ’split senate’, she said that was very very important. But she didn’t know who she was voting for otherwise.
Maybe Leichardt is where the Rattus will retire to, just checking the house prices, plenty of time from Sunday.
No movement on Centrebet – Coalition still $4.35.
903 Jyrki – not true. The Herald Sun (which carries the Galaxy poll) has the heading “Photo Finish”. Same thing isn’t it?
Swing Lowe
labor 100+ seats on Portland bet is the equal favourite result.
One significant item from the Kelly leaflet scam was that it was a liberal insider who tipped labor off with the exact details of what was going to happen and where.
There are quite a few inside the iberals and former liberals who want Howard and his far right mates voted out in a comprehensive manner so that they can regain control of their party.
The libs have been leaking info to labor since Rudd took over, some of it internal polling, some of it campaign tactics and some policy details.
Oh I hope JWH wins tomorrow! I’m a guest at a wedding tomorrow so if he does I’m going to get drunk and if he loses I’m going to get drunk, either way I’m gogin to get drunk!
Observer: Well the Atherton Tablelands is retirement heaven.
Sorry folks but I’ve seen nothing on any of the three polls to suggest anything other than a Labor landslide.
So it remains 85 seats on 53/47 minimum
The Australian’s website suggests Newspoll is pointing to a cliffhanger – results will be up at 4pm
If it turns out that Rudd gets 55% 2pp tomorrow, will The Austrailan sell NewsPoll and start up a new polling company?
Saying that an Australian federal election is going to be a cliff hanger, and that we will need recounts that will take a week is a HUGE call. It is so easy to be wrong in so many ways.
for all you wavereres-this article from express advocate (central coast nsw)should cheer you up
“local independent -doug eaton (exliberal) will preference the alp because it offered the best deal”
so stick that in ya pipe and smoke it.
i will call dobell now based on
the fact that eaton is ex liberal mayor and highly respected businessman
maybe 121 seats now!
I reckon we can pretty much predict the newspoll result:
national: 53-47
BUT: in the marginals the swing is less and Labor is projected to only win 17 marginal seats
therefore: “cliff-hanger”
Ha, yeah right.
ah 957 wok! I nearly fell out of my chair!
Just as a quick note, ACN was closest to the Vic state result last year. Although they slightly overestimated Coalition support.
Glen and JoM, good luck gentlemen. I hate your politics but I’d buy you a beer.
LNP now down to $4.25 at Centrebet. Looks like a fair bit of money has been dropped on these guys today.
973
Lose the election please Says:
November 23rd, 2007 at 3:14 pm
Just as a quick note, ACN was closest to the Vic state result last year. Although they slightly overestimated Coalition support.
I like you much more than you have come out. And the nickname is much more appropriate now..
Yep, something is up on Betfair.
In the last 20 minutes, the Coalition has gone from $4.80 to $5.10, with all the momentum going towards Labor
Sportingbet now has the Coalition at $4.00, down from $4.15 and the ALP is now $1.24…
977 swing lowe it must mean insiders info on newspoll
it happen last week as well
William,
Not that I’m one to limit freedom of expression – why not close the threads until 4.00pm AEDT ? Everyone could have a little break, get a cup of tea, a walk in the sunshine or something – and then go crazy over the Newspoll figures. Think of it as a contribution to public health.
Someone at The Australian is in cahoots with one of the bookies. The whole ‘cliffhanger’ thing is designed to get some money onto the Coalition so the bookies don’t get too badly burnt by a Labor landslide.
Chicken.
85 seats is hardly a landslide, nor is 53/47. It is a comfortable Labor victory, with similar comfort levels to 2001 & 2004 for the Coalition.
Considering Galaxy this morning, the commentators (with understandable reason) will conclude that ACNielsen was the rogue poll. Whether this plays out tomorrow will be interesting to say the least.
I’m sticking with ALP 86 LNP 62 IND 2 TPP 53/47.
Yep, the momentum is turning on Betfair now – down to $4.90…
Swing Lowe — then Bet Fair is moving in the opposite direction to Centrebet. Strange.
Poss has a new post up to calm the nervous nellies:
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/11/23/heading-in-the-right-direction/
That is perfect for it is in Victoria Labor would like to pick up an extra 0.5% and this will help.
You may have noticed The Australian and Courier Mail endorse Rudd – they are the two main Newspapers to influence Queenslanders – the area where Rudd can pick up a heap of seats.
The Telegraph endorses Rudd covers NSW, another place Rudd can pick up heaps of seats.
The Hun can endorse Howard as victoria is least important to Rudd and anyway ‘The Age’ has been spruiking Rudd all year.
In SA The Advertiser endorses Howard but it doesn’t matter they have made up their minds enough to deliver seats.
Now I get why the big swings in betfair – there’s practically no money behind the Coalition at $5 or $5.10. So it’s switching up and down there…
I think the possible outcomes tomorrow, in descending order of likelihood are as follows:
(1) A narrow Coalition victory, with a much reduced majority.
(2) A narrow Labor victory, by only a handful of seats.
(3) A comfortable Labor victory leading to a parliament approximating a mirror image of what it is today.
(4) A Labor landslide.
(5) A hung parliament.
Opinion polls are just bullshit they interview 1000 people whom are supposed to represent 13.5 million
The only thing 50/50 is Boothby – which Libs hold by 8%. Welcome to reality, Team Rodent.
We’re home!
Ive got the feet up, bong loaded, setting controls for the heart of the sun.
Wake me up for the count, muchachos.
Labor has just dropped from $1.23 to $1.21 on Portlandbet in the last 10 minutes. WTF is going on?
988 Swing Lowe — that’s the problem with BetFair probabilities. They do swing around a lot.
CAT, let me guess… you’re a Coalition supporter?
Does it matter what this next poll says? Or any of these polls over the last day or so?
There”ll be a poll tomorrow, with 13.6 million respondents, nil margin of error, 100% accurate.
RGee I would buy you a beer too mate!
Centrebet, Bennolong: Howard, $1.68; McKew, $2.05.. well in today, I believe
Thommo #930,
Pearson’s effectively saying “A pox on both your houses!” The day that any Aboriginal leader endorses Howard is the day that either a) they’ve been bought off, or b) there’s an ice-rink in hell.
MGM #943 – has a point.
The problem is, that these people (are now a minority @40% primary), have been shafted by 6 interest rate rised and serf choices and rising costs.
Howard is gone, and all you fascist liberal losers can suck on that and wallow in the mire while the uglies tear your party apart – what you deserve really for trying to tear Australia apart.
Rudd, though not impressive, by 12 Seats .
BTW, can someone tell me what LOL and LTEP stand for?
I’m a Geelong supporter and I was as nervous as hell before the Grand Final. I was at the game and felt physically ill just a few minutes before the first bounce thinking of all the things that could go wrong.
We played brilliantly from the first bounce and scored two goal from hard fast play. Port Adelaide got a goal or two and then we kicked two more blinders. In the second quarter we blew them away.
That’s how it will be tomorrow night. Fans who haven’t tasted success for many years often only see doom and gloom but this election will be won by Labor before the first quarter is over. The rest of the evening will be an exhibition for political junkies and boring as crap for everyone else.
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