Roy Morgan has released a phone survey of 1670 voters including 1025 in hand-picked Coalition marginals. It shows Labor with an overall lead of 54.5-45.5 on two-party preferred, or 46.5 per cent to 40 per cent on the primary vote. The picture is somewhat better for the Coalition in the marginals, where the swing to Labor is 5.2 per cent compared with 7.2 per cent overall. Morgan aren’t done yet: the accompanying release tells us “the final Morgan Poll will be conducted tonight and released on election morning”.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Morgan: 54.5-45.5
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1,119 Comments
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79 Webroar Liberals had never had polls like that before Malcolm Fraser in 1975. Doesn’t mean it can’t be done does it.
worth remembering that half this sample is in Lib marginals, dragging down Labor’s 2PP
John Stirton say min 20 seats to Labor.
One day to go!
Coalition surging back in the marginals:
——————————
On Saturday tee hee
It will be Coalition glee!!
Looking forward to getting up 7am Sat for live results!!
80
Bring Back CL’s blog Says:
November 23rd, 2007 at 8:54 am
rumour has it Newspol is 54-46 ALP
Who says? Or is this just another make a post then leave the blog beat-up a la yesterday?
Croatia 3 England losers.
tdt yes, last night there was someone who claimed to know the Newspoll results.
56/44 Qld, 54/46 NSW, 52/48 Vic, 55/45 SA and 48/52 WA with an overall 54/46.
I would take it with a grain of salt though.
We also had another person who leaked early that Galaxy would show ‘too close to call’ state that Newspoll would be 55/45.
WHAT!? Martin O’Shaunessy from Newspoll just said that he doesn’t think we will know the election result for about one week.
153 Australia football LOLOLOLOL
stick to the Aussie Rules!
O’Shannasy says cliffhanger – maybe – perhaps.
CEO of Newspoll reckons it will be a cliffhanger – Y-A-W-N
He says he is CERTAIN it will be a cliffhanger.
That’s the biggest fence sit of all time.
Martin O from Newspoll spruiking the Australian tomorrow
Ave it 07 – What was the score last time the aussies played england?? 3-1 wasn’t it?
That means he’s got 52-48
Hey Ave it 07 – Take a F#@& off pill
@ 101 & 102:
Thanks heaps guys, really really appreciate it!
Now to figure out which booths the electorate got from Farrer and lost to Gillmore!
As far as I can tell they got:
Adelong
Brungle
Batlow
Lacmalac
Jingellic
Rosewood
Tooma
Talbingo
Tumbarumba
Tumut
Tumut East
and lost:
Batehaven
Batemans Bay
Long Beach
Malua Bay
Mogo
Nelligen
Sunshine Bay
Sutton (Eden-Monaro)
Tomakin
if anyone knows for sure, much appreciated!
If Newspoll is saying that AC Nielsen is the odd man out?
He seemed to imply that the 2pp is higher than that, but that it is closer in marginal seats.
Aussieguru01, it’s not even 10am yet – don’t let these Lib dorks get to you so early – stay focussed
ESJ,
The problem is that ACN conducted 2 separate polls (one online and one traditional) with 2000 people sampled in the traditional and 1400 sampled online. Both point to the exact same result…
George Its only that retard that gets ’special mention’
161 – little friendly game – we like to give you developing nations encouragement
163 – you know you’re worried – you will be crying by Sat night lol
130 Ashley Yes, but it backs up the previous poll.
Labor now favourite in Petrie on Centrebet and Portlandbet. Still behind on Sportingbet…
LTEP: As for deciding between Green or Dems in the Senate, just remember the Dems have a split ticket. Even if you vote below the line, then there should be no issue. If you vote above the line, your initial transfer value might not be 100% but could be 50% (depends on who was eliminated before the transfer). The Greens don’t have a split ticket so the transfer value should be 100%.
I know other parties do split tickets, but I detest split tickets more than the voting above the line. At least below the line I have my say.
Ave it 07, why don’t you shove a hot poker up your arse and go f*ck yourself….
swe damn it, I didn’t follow my own advice Aussieguru01!
Ave it 07 – your just a ‘cyber fart’, piss off!
Growler @ 145
Thanks for the helpful quote, particularly about the internal polling from both parties. Graham Richardson, who has called the winner of every election for the past 30 years and has seen the Labor Party’s internal polls. Richo stated late Sunday that Labor will win 80 seats, and it’s likely that he would give the conservative minimum figure with a few more still in sight.
But as someone said earlier, the polls (MSM or internal), Betting markets and Possums’ (and others’) stats analysis don’t matter a whole lot to the hunchpeople.
174 – lol – Australia a civilised mature country………
10am there soon. 32 hours to Coalition win – alll you labor will have your handouts stopped lol – get back in the tent on the street
Martin O said “we won’t know the result for a week, there will be recounts”, meaning that he thinks a lot of seats will be closely fought. Doesn’t mean that the overall 2PP is close.
George…some digression please…William will whack us if we keep up this form…he might be asleep!
Ave it 07 don’t you have some flyers to deliver?
Ave it 07 – investing your precious time posting about election polling on the other side of the world. LOL.
In the world of polling Swing Lowe – someone is going to get hurt!
Apologies if this has already been covered here, getting harder + harder to roll with the times.
Jim Middleton said on 702 that tomorrow’s Oz/Newspoll would show some “tightening but Labor still in a position to win”.
Anyone got any more on this? Do we know the actual figures or do we just guess? It can only be 53-47, can’t it? Or 52.5-48.5? Any less and Libs would have 48 and be theoretically able to win, thus he wouldn’t have said that?
Or am I reading 2 much into this?
175 lol missed that – dont forget we british can disolve your government if we dont like it – we’ve done it before
180 – haha quite funny
nah, Ave it 07 loves the tit for tat! now back to listening to cassidy on the radio
Sorry, I meant to say 52.5/47.5 …
Betamax,
Rumour is that it’s going to be 54/46. However, that statement suggests a 53/47 result – 50/50 would be outside the MOE, but it would signify a “tightening”
I agree. Last newspoll was 54-46. Tightening but still in a position to win would suggest 53-47 or at worst 52.5-48.5.
Has to be 53/47 I would have thought. Which will be disappointing if a large amount of the polling was done yesterday, during the Lindsay saga.
Ha. I can’t subtract either.
53/47 to Coalition?
Thanks SL.
I wish he’d said where he got the info from — I’m guessing Jim would use reliable sources, even if he is a bit middle-of-the-road he always seems dependable
I don’t think Lindsay is going to swing the national vote too much. Might pull a percentage or two in certain seats though.
So in the Oz’s editorial, it says that the latest Newspolling (which was still going on last night) shows the coalition coming back strongly…
Anyone concerned?
Lose the election please@128:
Anything we Democrats can do to sweeten the deal?
Galaxy Primaries 42.5 (ALP) to 42.5(Lib)
Preference Split: 15% -> 9.5(ALP) to 5.5(Lib) ie. 63% toi Lab
Nielson 48 (ALP) to 40 (Lib)
Preference Split: 12% -> 9(ALP) to 3(Lib) ie 75% to Lab
Who is right?
169 – please do not use that word. You clearly have no idea just how offensive it can be.
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