Roy Morgan has released a phone survey of 1670 voters including 1025 in hand-picked Coalition marginals. It shows Labor with an overall lead of 54.5-45.5 on two-party preferred, or 46.5 per cent to 40 per cent on the primary vote. The picture is somewhat better for the Coalition in the marginals, where the swing to Labor is 5.2 per cent compared with 7.2 per cent overall. Morgan aren’t done yet: the accompanying release tells us “the final Morgan Poll will be conducted tonight and released on election morning”.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Morgan: 54.5-45.5
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1,119 Comments
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Latest Lindsay campaign update all liberal booth workers will be wearing this on their tshirts.
I’m not a racist but…
I am a liberal.
My biggest fear in this election is how many seats Labor will lose so closely. For example they need a swing of 8% but they only 6.5%.
Spent a few hours handing out how-to-vote cards for the ALP in London and surprisingly the Lindsay-leaflet saga was mentioned quite a few times by the people i was talking to. For some it was that last nail in the coffin getting them down to Australia House, put up with long queues and vote. Nothing motivates quite so much as anger.
As you would expect, there were lots of positive energy for Labor and the Greens from the predominately young group of voters.
Greens were spruiking very hard on the fact that people can vote Green because their preferences were going directly to Labor.
And Morgan has a 60% split for preferences
The Newspoll rumours is like a game of Chinese Whispers. Hopefully, somebody leaks it properly soon before we all drown in a sea of disinformation.
Is that a joke Anthonyl? – Its almost believable !
This could be the first election since ‘96 where the preferred PM has not won the election.
Thats incorrect LTEP. Rudd been preferred every time – get your hand off it!
Lose The Eeyore Please – no it wont be.
For a Morgan Poll, 54.5/45.5 is not that great to be honest. Forgive me, I’ve become a tad bit pessimistic.
Rudd is preferred pm. Anyone saying the libs will win with 48% of the vote needs to get their hand off it. It will not happen.
Settle down Nervous Nellies. There’s nothing you can do to change anything now. The course is set.
My prediction is 53.4 2PP, 83 seats.
LTEP @ #144
I’m not normally one to turn an elector away from “my” party, but you don’t come across as a Greens voter to me. You’re way to pessimistic and negative. We Greens are full of hope and optimism for the future. And while we welcome all new members, I feel that from your postings over the last few months, and your mood today, you might be better off parking your vote with the Dems. They are in terminal decline anyway, and may suit your mindset better.
But if you ever decide to embrace hope and optimism, Bob’s waiting for your call….
DR
The size of the Labor win will be dependant on how the preferences flow.
Don’t panic:
(1) Possum says ALP 55-45 (based on in-depth analysis of poll trends), and see his comments on Galaxy’s methodology,
(2) The bookies have about 1.20 / 4.60. Do many bookies go broke?
(3) Shortest spread is ALP to win 53% to 54%
(4) Look where the leaders are campaigning: not in marginal seats but where the Libs hold 5 – 10 % – both of them.
Sit back, relax, enjoy.
Suncorp stadium here I come!
To the punters (Ashley and Swing Lowe, I’m particularly looking in your direction) have you got anything on this exact Labor seats market: https://www.portlandbet.com/index.php?cPath=3156&event_id=ALL&market_type_id=-#go_?
Collapsed a bit since it opened but still looking pretty generous through the 90s. I got 95 and 96 seats at 81-1 yesterday
184 Ave it 07 Good to see you have got a democracy at last in the UK. How long did it take to change the house of Lords?
There seems to be a misconception about polling in the marginals.
A smaller swing in marginals is by definition not that much of a problem – they are marginal, it only takes a smallish swing to win them. The big swing is only required to win the safer seats.
Likewise a result of 52-48 in marginal seats (or any government held seats) would be fine for the ALP. What would be a problem would be if the 52-48 represented big swings to the ALP in safe and marginal Labor seats, with relatively little movement in safe and marginal government seats. That does not appear to be the case.
I still can’t see Labor winning. I only say that because my first election was in 1996 and therefore I’ve only ever known and seen John Howard victories. These past 11 years have been hell on my mentality. I’ve become so cynical and angry because of the Howard Government ( and the media ). I used to love Australia but Howard has made me very unpatriotic. Every day, actually every hour for the past 11 years I have something bad about the Howard Govt go through my head which brings me down. Something on tv or a lyric in a song can just make me depressed because it has a link to what Howard has done or is doing. For the sake of my mental health I hope Howard loses but I don’t have any faith in the Australian public. God I need help.
So AC Nielsen is now the outlier?
And funny how the media this morning only discussed the Galaxy poll: showing their biases again!
Aussieguru01. stop rubbing it in.
A smaller sing in marginals (be definition less than 6%) is completely irrelevant when the nationwide swing is also at least 6%. For any seat saved, another will go.
Luke. hang in there buddy. having seen the defeats i too have been cautious. but this time i think its the real deal.
nice picture in the online version of Michelle Grattan’s Age piece this morn, shows a wood duck and a lame duck….
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/its-time-say-voters/2007/11/22/1195321951483.html
212 – House of lords is good!
I preferred it when there were only proper lords there tho, none of these ‘nominated’ do gooders!
I’m a bit like Luke! I’m getting anxious also! I guess the good thing about Galaxy and Newspoll is that it’ll cause some fence sitters to move into the Labor camp.
Patrick Bateman says: “A smaller swing in marginals is by definition not that much of a problem – they are marginal, it only takes a smallish swing to win them. The big swing is only required to win the safer seats.”
Correct Patrick, and if the swings in the marginals are not as large as the national swing (but as you point out, will still fall), then the swings in other less marginal seats will most likely be even bigger.
O’Shannasy wouldn’t be saying the result would be a cliffhanger if his poll was showing a bigger margin than 52/48. In this is the case there must be a late swing to the Govt not picked upped by ACN which started polling a day earlier than Galaxy.
ESJ @ 129. I actually didn’t receive an invite to this Nielsen, they randomize it within their pool of respondents. The online Nielsen isn’t self selected and it isn’t a rolling sample so there’s no reason to doubt its statistical credability.
Luke, I feel your pain. I feel it… but cling to hope, it’s all we’ve got (until tomorrow night, one hopes)
Dave R, you’ll hope one day when your party is in decline… and it will happen some day… that people don’t automatically count you out. All parties deserve the chance to get their message across.
To me, the Dems are hopeless media performers and don’t know how to run a campaign if their life depended on it… but when you watch them in Parliament it’s hard not to acknowledge their worth.
I dispute you on the Greens not being negative. Watch Senator Milne for a few hours and you will see negative. The hope for the Greens, to me, is Senator Siewert, who has credibility. In addition I’m impressed with Larissa Waters in Queensland. However, I’ve never been particularly fussed with Kerry Nettle, who happens to be the Senate candidate in my state. Hence the tough choice.
This is why Australia has a Senate, to piss off people like you.
Morning MM…1 more day to go YYyyyyyyyyyeesssssssssssssssss
the statement by the SMH that sources within both parties say the ACN poll more accurately reflects internal party polling is enough for me.
when the swing is on, its on.
Goodmorning AG01!! one more sleep!!!! woohoooooooooooooooooo!!!!! the champagne and xxxx is on ice!
Pancho @ 211,
That betting market looks a bit odd. What seems to be happening is that the money is being spread throughout the market, but particularly focused toward the higher end. I remember a couple of days ago that 100+ seats was at $101, now it is at $10.
My overall impression is that the punters have NFI how many seats that Labor is going to get, but they’re guessing that it’ll be somewhere between 79 and 91 seats.
middle man it’s a question of whether you believe SMH. I don’t. The official party lines are that it’s tight. There’s no reason they’d be letting it out of the bag now.
Anyone saying they are now “getting anxious” what did you expect?!
If I’d told you 10 months ago that on the eve of the election:
-ACN would come out 57-43;
-Galaxy would come out 52-48;
-the Australian, the SMH and the Daily Telegraph would endorse Rudd; and
-Centrebet would have the ALP favourite $1.25-$4.50
would you have told me you would be anxious at this point?
I think not.
You’re allowing yourselves to be fooled by a media keen for hype/a story, Coalition supporters desperate for something to hold on to in the hope of winning (just as ALP supporters were in 2004) and your own inate pessimism.
Look at it this way, even if Rudd loses:
-Howard is never standing for another election;
-polling companies are going to be worthless; and
-the world will keep turning.
LTEP,
The official party lines is that ACN is closer to what they’ve been hearing.
Greetings all.
Been reading this blog for a while now and have enjoyed it immensely. Like many here I long to see the end of conservative rule but cant help feeling nervous.
As I see it most Aussies still think the economy is going ‘gangbusters’ and this may see people drift back to the Coalition. Unfortunately the myth that Labor are poor economic managers persists in the minds of many and this may hurt the ALP.
As it is I’ll sleep restlessly tonight. I also feel some of the optimism expressed on these forums may be misguided. Hope I’m wrong and admit I’m no psephologist but my gut tells me its gonna be close. I’ve felt this way from day one and certain polls seem to confirm my fears.
Very sensible comment BV.
Letp. agreed on Kerry Nettle. She too easily opts for hyperbole to get her message across. a bit too much chicken little for me.
The betting markets follow the money – the money comes from regular Joes – the regular Joes don’t understand how our electoral system works.
The betting agencies are going to go out of business! The polling companies only reflect the 2PP result, which may still be close to the final outcome, but the number of seats needed won’t go to Labor.
The front page of the Herald – “Howard needs a miracle” – will be framed on the wall of Young Libs HQ.
I’m not getting burned again.
It should’ve been Latho, dammit.
Maxine’s odds have shortened even further!
Centrebet now has Howard on 1.72 and Maxine on 2.00!
*jumps for joy*
“Mr Rudd heads into the final two days of the campaign with an election-winning lead in the polls, although early figures from Newspoll and the latest Galaxy poll in News Limited newspapers give the Coalition some hope.
Newspoll is detecting strong gains for the Coalition in Western Australia and a minor recovery in Queensland and Victoria, with full figures to be available in the final poll of the campaign exclusively in The Weekend Australian tomorrow.”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22806913-11949,00.html
No I haven’t. The over-round is pretty large (ie. if you sum up the probabilities implied by the odds the total is much much bigger than 1) which means the bookie is being particularly stingy… which isn’t unusual when there are this many outcomes covered.
I’m tipping the ALP to win by 18 seats. Certainly don’t evpect them to win anywhere north of 90 seats total. Maybe next time they can solidify their majority.
I have seen the Newspoll chief on Skynews for a few interviews.
1. He always expresses astonishment that the “better economic manager” support for the Coalition has not resulted in Howard leading in the primary and 2PP.
2. He always talks up whatever part of that week’s poll is positive for the Coalition, in the same vein as Shanahan (though with less emotive language, of course).
3. He makes a big fuss that the approval/disapproval rating for Howard is “very good” for someone in the PM job so long, and says Rudd’s high approval rating is irrelevant because it’s for Opposition Leader, not PM.
3. He often answers questions which are merely his opinions about the election campaign and totally irrelevant to his polling.
4. He is very defensive about having stuffed the 2PP calculations last time, and says Newspoll has gone back to old calculation used before 2004.
As for his comments reported in here this morning, are they in the genre of Gary Morgan’s too close to call CYA comments reported in here, but with the added spin of how long the count will take. I hope he didn’t use the word “certain” because that’s not a word anyone with credibility would use about their polling data and calculations.
William would it be possible to set something up where all bloggers here, of whatever persuasion, can register their prediction of say TPP and seats in the one place, so that we can really see who was closest in the final wash-up.
Hopefully it might avoid some of the spin-doctoring that will occur, when people try to explain away their errant multiple predictions.
Perhaps in tabular form something like :-
USERNAME TPP SPLIT ALP/L&NP ALP SEATS L/NP
Just a thought!
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