Roy Morgan has released a phone survey of 1670 voters including 1025 in hand-picked Coalition marginals. It shows Labor with an overall lead of 54.5-45.5 on two-party preferred, or 46.5 per cent to 40 per cent on the primary vote. The picture is somewhat better for the Coalition in the marginals, where the swing to Labor is 5.2 per cent compared with 7.2 per cent overall. Morgan aren’t done yet: the accompanying release tells us “the final Morgan Poll will be conducted tonight and released on election morning”.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Morgan: 54.5-45.5
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1,119 Comments
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hunstundho. its all talk. it’ll all be within MoE. The GG is just talking up a fight. reminds me of teh press trying to talk up the QLD Reds v Waratahs match this year.
And I will lose a lot of money.
What I think this means:
Newspoll was projecting early this week that Labor would win 2 in W.A. now they will have a net gain of 0
Early this week Newspoll said Labor was on a 9.6% swing in QLD, take that down to 7 or 8%, which is still gigantic.
Early this week Newspoll said Labor was on a 6% swing in Victoria, take this down to 4.5 or 5%.
All the polls say Rudd is going to win. Galaxy says he will get 80 seats, AC Nielsen says he will get 95 – 100. Newspoll will probably fit in at 85 – 90.
But the real answer is only 1 day away!
less than 24 hours till the election day,
I don’t see any narrowing in the betting markets,
Average across the markets: Labor 1.22 / Coalition 4.30
BetFair has best offer for both parties: 1.25 / 4.8
If ACN is more correct than the other two. That will mean a big shake up or at least wierd spin in the years ahead when News LTD are reporting on its own future polls.
Hustundho,
That report seems to be in line with the statement by Jim Middleton on ABC 702 this morning that there has been a slight narrowing, but Labor still in front. I’m still sticking with my 53/47 prediction for Newspoll.
Did O’Shannasy actually say the newspoll was showing “a cliffhanger”?
Middle Man,
Agree with you on that point. The MOE seems to have disappeared from political commentators’ vocabulary in the past two weeks…
O’Shaughnessy said that Galaxy was showing a “cliffhanger” – I believe…
Morning K Jin!
On the day i’m picking 54.5… or a bit higher… but not the full 55.
What the latest polls are showing is that every vote counts. People will rightly feel as they go into the polling booth that it is their vote that could be difference, for either party.
It’s been an extremely long campaign which basically started in December last year when Mr Rudd became Opposition Leader. Whatever happens tomorrow I think for the ALP to be in the position they are in is amazing. Both sides know they are in a battle.
I would say Mr Rudd has had a better year politically than the PM. He has withstood nearly a year of constant attacks and criticisms. To out campaign someone like JWH is a feat in itself.
I sincerely hope the poll tomorrow reflects the sentiment of the whole year and the ALP are successful. I would say that most of us have enjoyed the contests of differing opinion from all sides of the Australian political spectrum on this fantastic site . Thanks William, you’ve made this election a great roller coaster ride for all of us.
Trioli said on ABC radio yesterday that both parties internal polling indicated an 8 seat Labor victory. I’m not sure how credible that is, but it was reassuring, particularly in light of the SMH remark.
Well that’s quite different then. It’s fair enough if he wants to call Galaxy a cliffhanger…. but I thought some folks were suggesting that he said that Newspoll was also a cliffhanger?
Swing Lowe. it has competely disappeared. they are reading 1 point moves as though they are true and accurate reflections of the whole populace. these are guides.
If Trioli was saying that I’d say it’s pretty good… particularly since she was stating both parties’ internals were showing that.
It depends who told her though.
(Note – there are two posters using “Andrew” here now…)
The betting markets follow the money – the money comes from regular Joes – the regular Joes don’t understand how our electoral system works.
The betting agencies are going to go out of business! The polling companies only reflect the 2PP result, which may still be close to the final outcome, but the number of seats needed won’t go to Labor.
The front page of the Herald – “Howard needs a miracle” – will be framed on the wall of Young Libs HQ.
I’m not getting burned again.
It should’ve been Latho, dammit.
Ashley there were:
Newspoll is detecting strong gains for the Coalition in Western Australia and a minor recovery in Queensland and Victoria, with full figures to be available in the final poll of the campaign exclusively in The Weekend Australian tomorrow.”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22806913-11949,00.html
Btw, my TPP prediction is 53.5/46.5. Just a hunch – nothing much to back me up on that one…
Andrew,
You should change your profile name then…
Martin O’Shaunessy/Gary Morgan – peas from the same pod. Both like to interpret their own polls according to their political leanings. Both like to see their names being reported. Both like to be controversial.
Assuming the (as yet unannounced) Newspoll to be 52 or 53 for Labor…
For O’Shaunessy to talk about cliffhanger/won’t know for a week etc on the basis of ONE poll, when the moe for this upcoming poll is probably no smaller than 2.5% (prob +/- 3%), is really showing his colours.
He knows full well that the undecideds/don’t cares/apathetics split mostly to the party with the momentum when they get to mark their ballot paper.
This is the reason for his statements today – and also the purpose of the headline in News Ltd tabloids. For example, see..
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/
…with statements like “knife edge” and photo “finish” when commenting on the Galaxy poll (also just one poll with moe of probably 3%).
For their supporters, the LNP needs to be seen at this late stage to be on the way back.
Maxine is in to $2 in Bennelong at Centrebet!!!
The betting contest is also tighetening in Longman!
BROUGH 1.65, SULLIVAN 2.10 (Centrebet)
I said somewhere yesterday that Michelle Grattan wouldn’t take kindly to Howard’s attempt to fob off questions about possible candidate involvement in the Kelly Gang affair.
Looks like I was right!
THAT the Coalition apparently stands on the brink of defeat at tomorrow’s election is an extraordinary indictment of John Howard.
This Prime Minister has been the overwhelming driving force in his Government and, if the Coalition is swept away, as the polls are suggesting, he will have to shoulder most of the blame personally.
He has made bad decisions this term, ranging from WorkChoices to his refusal to retire. After many years of warning against hubris he has succumbed to it. And he has run a poor campaign.
(Grattan from http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2007/11/22/1195321945520.html )
No, I’ll stick with my name.
My attempt to post under an alternate name resulted in the comment approval process again, and William is occupied elsewhere.
(Andrew – The one with the $200.00 bet)
240
Curtins for the Rodent
Already been done.
http://pbpredict.googlepages.com/home
Latest Lindsay campaign news.
Liberals will be wearing this message on their shirts.
I’m not racist but…
I am a liberal.
242 – Ashley – not as much as me
261. Swing Lowe
What is Howard at?
When do the betting markets close?
Hustundho,
Howard is at $1.72 on Centrebet.
Sportingbet has Howard up $1.58/$2.20
Portlandbet has Howard up $1.67/$2.08
bryce @ #260
Poster “toby” was giving advance Newspoll figures last night. He’s previous “advance” figures have been spot on.
TPP was 54/46.
he also gave state breakdowns. I can’t remember all:
Qld was a big gap at 56/44
Vic had narrowed considerably, maybe 52/48 (which surprised us all)
WA 48/52
SA ?
NSW ?
Toby did not have primaries.
Rudd, if elected, is promising to say sorry (and actually apologise) to the Aborigines in his first term.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22808100-29277,00.html
Galaxy is a good poll for Labor it gives the Coalition false hope, scares some people in voting for Labor in the fear Howard gets back in, then on Saturday comes the flood that washes them out of office
SA was 55/45 and NSW 54/46.
As I said earlier. Treat with caution as there was a strange ‘identity thraud’ plea that came from Toby.
thanks LTEP.
No they are all wrong its 60-40 Viva la educatione revolucione.
Galaxy may be considered the Accurate 1 with regrets to the last Fed, NSW and QLD elections. But in all these cases there didn’t seem to be a chance of a government change. As Galaxy has not been involved in a government change, maybe they should be discounted at this election as it appears there will be a change of government.
It’s important to note Rudd still enjoys a wid(ish) lead on Preferred PM 51-43 I believe. It’s hard to imagine the case where someone who has lead on Preferred PM for so long could fail to win the election.
Still… I suppose people could just love their local member that much.
All the TPP’s are based on preference flows. The Polls got this wrong in 2004 and changed their approach. Could that be wrong now? Are the Greens primary higher and is their preference flow going to be stronger to Labor?
TO WILLIAM BOWE
YOUR INTRO STORY HAS THE WRONG “MORGAN” FIGURES
YOUR Story says a 5.2 swing to Labor in the 22 ‘marginals’
BUT Morgan’s Poll sayss the 22 seat 2PP is Labor 51.5% tp 48.5%
ie a swing to Labor of 4.2% NOT 5.2% AS YOU REPORTED
Henry DO you agree ??????????????????
Rusty (195) It seems Galaxy have suddenly come up with a 2.5% primary for Family First, after having not registered a reading for them over their last three surveys since September. This seems to account for most of the 2.5% fall in their ALP primary since their last survey. The Coalition vote has increased by just 0.5%, yet somehow the two party preferred falls from 54/46 to 52/48.
Meanwhile Morgan comes up with 54.5/45.5 – a 7.2% swing since 2004 – and declares it will be a close election (WTF). It’s also worth noting that all of Morgan’s 5 or 6 phone polls over recent times have shown a lower ALP primary than their larger face to face ones. They will be putting out their final face to face poll tomorrow, so it’s most unlikely their 2pp figure will be any lower for Labor.
So far, on what we’ve seen, it’s very hard to see anything other than an ALP win. Newspoll will be very interesting
It will be close to 57% if not over it.
Howard and the libs have very few core constituances that support them.
Should be 92 seats minium and be interesting to see the number of ministers going, Hocker Pyne for starters, representing Work Choices and Aged Care which they have stuffed up. Brough is laso a big risk to go.
As to lib MP’s jumping ship after the elction, a good win by labor of 92 would see quite a few go as they would not relish the years in opposition, amore comfortable win could see some stay on to avert further seats being lost in by elections.
Either way Costello won’t stay around long, he won’t get the oppostion eader job and will probably only get get aminor shadow ministry.
Costelo was useless and a negative in government, no way the libs want him in any prominent position in opposition.
Downer will most likely be the stop gap opposition leader until they find someone sensible, most likely someone new brought into a seat vacated by one of the older libs in a by election.
Here’s Jackman from the Bulletin today for those who consider his opinions worth considering:
“Now if the Galaxy result is independent of the Nielsen result, then the probability of both outcomes is the product of the individual probabilities, or about .0005; i.e., 5 times in 10,000 would random sampling give rise to results at least as dispersed as the ones we got. If we add the on-line Nielsen poll to the mix, then it gets even more ridiculous. Sampling error alone can’t explain these diverse poll results.
The more plausible scenario is what are known as “house effects”. That is, Nielsen is doing something in its question-wording, its weighting, etc, that is generating some bias (and the fact that its phone and on-line polls agree so closely is interesting in this regard), and Galaxy has its own set of in-house procedures that is also generating some bias. Perhaps these house effects are small, perhaps large, we don’t know, at least not yet.”
Btw, one of my contacts who has strong connections to Grey says that Labor is in with a real shot there. He reckons there’s more chance of Grey falling to Labor than Boothby, as the local MP who is retiring there was responsible for building up the Coalition margin there.
That said, he still think it’s unlikely that Labor will win there, but expect a big swing.
Labors 2PP vote in 2004 was 47.26% as per http://www.aec.gov (Electoral commission)
Relax punters.
Newspoll is being spun – it will indicate, much like Morgan, that the real result is between Galaxy and ACN.
Fact: If it was very good for the coalition we’d already know it.
Ergo: It aint.
53+% and an piss easy win for the ALP. You can put that one in the bank.
I’m astonished by the GG editorial, and that in the Daily Telegraph, for that matter. Given the bias in their coverage of the campaign towards the Government, I can’t help thinking the editorials represent panic – sniffing the wind and jumping ship (to mix metaphors) to show they really are in touch with their readers. About the only bright point, if the weasel squeaks across the line tomorrow, will be the well deserved, copious servings egg on the faces of the respective editors and commentators of these two cynical and indelibly soiled rags.
Thanks 264! Please excuse my ignorance but how do I my prediction in?
53% you are being way to conservative Lefty E – all over suburban Australian, housewives are getting into their Kevin07 gear with a quiet and righteous determination to bring in the education revolution, Medicare Gold is having her hair done, Peter Garrett is getting a last minute polish and working families are looking to the heavens and saying at last our prayers have been heard… surely it will be 60%?
ESJ! You’re showing your ‘in-house bias’ you ALP hack. 57 tops.
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