Roy Morgan has released a phone survey of 1670 voters including 1025 in hand-picked Coalition marginals. It shows Labor with an overall lead of 54.5-45.5 on two-party preferred, or 46.5 per cent to 40 per cent on the primary vote. The picture is somewhat better for the Coalition in the marginals, where the swing to Labor is 5.2 per cent compared with 7.2 per cent overall. Morgan aren’t done yet: the accompanying release tells us “the final Morgan Poll will be conducted tonight and released on election morning”.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Morgan: 54.5-45.5
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1,119 Comments
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ESJ
Its AUSTRALIAN working families.
Sheesh….get it right.
ESJ, don’t forget… they’re all going to go out the back door.
Yes LTEP all the unclean, wicked and insufficiently fervent will indeed be cast out the back door into damnation!
Has an election ever been decided in the last 2 days of a campaign without a dramatic intervening event?
Michael @ 293 – No.
the rattus is using the auto dial in dobell
ps we are on the do not call register
You know what O’S’s comments mean to me … they mean I’m keen to buy the Australian tomorrow to find out the truth. Actually, I’ll look on line, but the deal is his comments are all about circulation.
Go red!
Local free paper Penrith Press out today has the Lindsay pamphlet scandal on the front page and page 3 again with same photos as in the Tele. Yay!
Dolly Downer was bitchin’ (as only she can) on radio about how Rudd is just offering cliches from a marketing company, and then went on to say that he will wake up on Sunday morning with no idea how to run “Australia’s 1.1 trillion dollar economy”.
She’s a hoot! They just don’t get it: the population is sick of them, and no amount of badmouthing with their own silly mantras can change that.
Bring it on!
Message to nervous nellies:
can you think of a better way to firm up ALP voters than “oooh, its close” style reports?
Say farewell to Galaxy poll. They’ll be doing cutprice market research for Soul Pattison Chemists this time next week.
Does anyone know the betting odds prior to the last NSW election?
If Newspoll is showing 52-48 tomorrow than Labor will lose for sure. It is all over red rover. The Libs are back in power! Even 53-47 would see the Libs returned and possibly even 54-46 if the marginals hold.
Actually no matter what the polls show for Labor, it will be a close victory for the Libs.
How do I know this and how can I make such a bold and confident statement?
I read it on this forum…lol
Mr Awesome,
It was something like ALP $1.04/ Coalition $10.
Kirribilli Removals @ 297:
http://www.ozforums.com.au/viewtopic.php?id=2116
heard some goss that internal lib polling 2 weeks ago had them losing by only 3 seats….. gulp! I’m trying not to get nervy.
Check out this betting market at Sportingbet:
http://www.sportingbet.com.au/uipub/sport.aspx?l1id=34&l2id=189195&l3id=750185
I knew it! Morgan is going to b the closest final poll, and win back all their credibility!
Regardless of the differences in polls we have now had a consistent 100 all pointing to a Labor win and not one single solitary poll showing Libs any better than 48%. So it would seem 48% is the very best the Libs can hope for and while I know there are some on here that believe the Libs can win on 48% I don’t, no party has EVER won on 48% (Lowest is 48.9 assisted by One Nation).
I have seen nothing in the campaign itself to suggest a potential collapse of ALP vote so am very confident of approx 54/46 result with ALP at least 85 seats.
The Lib’s can now go back to being the Opposition part that they all aspired to. I always thought Costello would be a great Opposition leader as he can’t say anything without putting the Labor part down – a true reactionary. He can only react to what others are doing.
Luke @ 214
I reckon they’ve got it this time. I remember the 1993 election. I was sure Hewson would take it and, believe me, that Fightback package was scary. Nick Greiner was in in NSW and Kirner was imploding in Victoria. Kennet was waiting in the wings. Fightback was replete with then fashionable, untested Thatcherite extreme policies. I well remember the headiness of conservatives who were convinced that the only role of government was law and order and defence. Some even wanted to privatise consular functions of Asutralian embassies.
Well, the night of the 93 election, a steamy March night, I tuned in to Red Kerry, as usual. Bob McMullan started off looking grim and the liberal hack (can’t remember who) looked cocksure to say the least. About 7 pm, Bob started saying things like “I think we’ll hold that one” and similar. The night just got better and better.
I anticipate a similarly good night on Saturday and have just about dispelled my fears that the 2007 election will be the exact inverse of 2003.
Enjoy.
SIEV XI, don’t beileve rumours of internal polling.
Trioli has mentioned internal polling from both parties suggests a win by the ALP by 8 seats.
Apparently both sides of internal polling are currently closer to the ACN poll
Update on Matt Price -
I sent an email message to the Canberra Bureau Chief to ask about him. I received a reply today in my inbox with this information.
The tumour was cancerous. He has undergone (past tense) heavy doses of radio therapy in the past weeks. Doctors still do not know yet if it has worked. It is too soon to tell yet.
Matthew Franklin (Canberra Bureau Chief) says we could all pray for him.
Er… exact inverse of 1993. Sorry
Is there any truth to the push polling rumor re: Galaxy?
That’s very sad news Julie. It’s tough to beat if it’s malignant. I’m sure he’s a fighter though.
Nothing concrete, but several people here have raised anecdotal evidence, whatever that’s worth
Of course Galaxy was push polled ND, there is a wave of righteous anger in this nation demanding that the Great Satan and his hoarde be expelled from the people’s house and demanding that Kevin come and restore peace and harmony to Australian working families.
simon jackman..
‘If we do what statisticians call a precision-weighted average, we wind up with 55.7%, with the larger sample size of the Nielsen poll giving it higher weight. ‘
http://thebulletinelection.ninemsn.com.au/polls_diverge_but_labor_still_on_course_for_victory.htm
ahhhhh thats better
BV, we all love Dolly, eh? She gives good quote, as they say!
Speaking of lines, I had to pinch myself after reading the GG’s editorial:
We recognise that no change is free of risk, but we recommend a vote for Mr Rudd.
Am I dreaming?
Yes, that’s terrible news on Matt Price. It’ll take a while to fight that off…
I just remembered an interesting article I read a month or two ago in which The Age referred back to their polling in 1996 which showed a similar stability to this years’ polls. They said, when averaging them that the result was very close to the final result.
They then went on to look at what this years’ result should be if that held true and came up with 57/43.
gee seems ESJ has been converted.
hehaheahehahehahe
believe you me. newspapers know all the inside running. they just cant print it as its not “on the record”. If the DT, CM and GG are backing Rudd you can be guaranteed they know whats going on.
Its a state by state or key demographic consideration.
Age on the fence? Hun going against stable mates. i reckon they know there isn’t much of a swing in the state.
CM and DT know the swing is on in QLD and NSW so are going with their customers.
The GG takes a national view therefore backing the overal winner Rudd.
AFR is for the business types who all regardless of background seem to think they shoudl be liberal voters.
Julie: That’s sad to hear about Matt Price. Hope he can pull through.
qld will bring home for the local lad. just watch.
Much better Esj. Now if you could just so something about how Mr howard has no plan for the future, make some references to “stale” and “out of touch”, i’ll be happy!
Does anyone know where Rudd is campaigning today? A few weeks back I heard he was thinking of leaving the last day for a swing through Bennelong, Wentworth and North Sydney. But maybe they have backed off due to the likely accusation that he was succumbing to hubris.
Is he in NSW today?
Of course nothing would have changed too much, especially nothing favourable for Howard. I would expect Howard to actually lose more votes for a pretty bad week.
The polls are giving the usual noise. I have more trust in AC Nielsen than Morgan F2F or Galaxy simply because it has been consistent in its polling figures compared to election results since 1996. So its recent figures probably tell the right story, though the latest one is at the high end of moe.
The Morgan phone polls seem of late to now reflect the same levels as Newspoll/Nielsen.
Newspoll and Nielsen have been telling the exact same story, a 54%+ result is on the cards.
If this Morgan is correct it would be the worst possible news for the LNP. Getting just the right amount of swing in the marginals to win them leaves all that ’spare’ swing to pick up a bunch of safe seats. Possum’s analysis in action.
The Liberals wont even get close, regardless of what the next Newspoll says. It is all too late.
Swing Lowe 269
The Narrowing! The Narrowing!
It is proven fact that rainfall has always be higher under a Labour government than a Liberial Government.
An unproven forecast I just heard is for above normal rainfalls in the summer months ahead.
I am just off to the kitchen to inspects the entrails of last nights chicken.
330 – why do we only taint change with risk? I would have thought that doing nothing (or not changing) was fraught with risk.
Thats funny schtick today, ESJ.
Ron Brown, Morgan’s article contains a table which indicates the combined 2004 result in the 22 marginal seats they have covered was 53.7-46.3, and their current polling has it at 48.5-51.5. Hence a 5.2 per cent swing.
yes K Jin, Kevin Rudd’s first action will be to say “Let there be rain” and then there will be rain.
After the election the Galaxy Poll will be shiped of to a Galaxy far far away.
Fine analysis, as usual, Kina @ 338. Jackman seems in line with your reasoning in his Bulletin article today.
With thanks to Aristotle yesterday, let’s look at the final ACN polls over the last few elections. Look at the Labor polling vs the actual vote in each.
1996 election L/NP ALP
ACN 46 (-1) 41 (+2.3)
Result 47 38.7
1998 election L/NP ALP
ACN 42 (+2.5) 40 (-0.1)
Result 39.5 40.1
2001 election L/NP ALP
ACN 46 (+2.9) 38 (+0.2)
Result 43.1 37.8
2004 election L/NP ALP
ACN 49 (+2.3) 37 (-0.6)
Result 46.7 37.6
they’ve got a pretty good record at picking the final ALP figure. If they’re this close again, it’s a drubbing.
For everyone concerned about the polls, think about this:
When has any election (anywhere) been close when the TPP is 53/47? When has a 53/47 polling result suggested a close election?
The answer is simple – never.
When Sarzoky beat Royal in this year’s French Presidential Election, it was considered a landslide. If Newspoll is 53/47, it should signify the end of JWH – not a close result.
Re 85,
Edward StJohn Says:
Yes, I lived through this. I was 13 when Nixon resigned. Agreed. The Libs need a CLEAN break with no or very few holdovers or they won’t be able to resell themselves to the electorate. Very astue observation from a Liberal supporter
Im not changing, its too risky. Im not moving to that chair to watch the telly, as I havent done it before, and the experience may be full unknown terrors.
In fact, I’m going to sit here and not even blink, case I miss a single moment of never being better off.
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