Sky News reports tomorrow’s Newspoll at 52-48. The Australian reports a sample size of 2614, but no primary votes. Normally you wouldn’t doubt the result with four polls telling you 52-48, 52-48, 54.5-45.5 and 57-43, but surely there’s some significance to the fact that the two closest polls of the year have come in the day before polling day.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Newspoll: 52-48
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1,500 Comments
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# 1442
Edward StJohn Says:
“Nath,
I think Richo said to reach the “top echelon” you have to be able to carry a schooner or a “pot” and hold your own in a boardroom.
Neither party really has many people in that category.”
And you are not one either – you are a fool and a goose !
Ramsay also wrote an article in 1993 stating not to believe the polls and that Hewson would win the election… it wouldn’t even be close.
All, brothers
I’m fading fast….must keep eyes open…must not fall asleep.
The last six weeks have been an experience, thank you all for your thoughts and wisdoms
would that we can all meet on the other side!!!
My pick is L-Np Howard by 2 seats
good night all
nath lol
CONFESSION
All Labor bloggers have blindly accepted the Newspoll 52-48
rather than Morgan or ACN or ACN less 2%
Probably because Labor supporters are so desperate for John Howard to be defeated that the ‘poor’ Newspoll result has caused anxiety
The desperation to see Howard go is based on
1/ For 11 years all of his decisions (apart from IR) have been EXCLUSIVELY
driven by will he gain or lose votes on an issue (rather than on sensible policy)
2/ Howard has used “wedge” politics to win votes IRRESPECTIVE of whether the
” AUSTRALIAN victim” is a Muslim or an Indian doctor or David hicks or ending
troops to Iraq or refugees or Tampa boat people or Tassie timber workers or
90% of unionists or NT aboriginal intervention etc.
3/ Work choices in many ways returns Aussie workers to a ‘master’ to servant’
relationship.
Whilst Aussie workers deserve better than that , work choices represents the
REAL philosophical core of the ‘dry Liberal’ party
Which is why I’m proudly passionate in seeing Howard defeated
ltep – another me too post from a loser ! You will never be close in anything you say or do …..
Dave,
Maybe its not the education revolution but one of those medical intervention centres Labor is talking about!
wyiswyg – If attacked I must defend myself -thats not trolling is it?
dave, be careful, ESJ is the master Liberal, he’s EJAKATED you know! He knows what he’s saying and is plenty smart.
see you squiggle. copping out by predicting on the final night I see.
And what are you George the dalek?
Who are you Dave and should I care?
That’s like saying they don’t mind blacks as long as they wear white paint on their skin. Of coarse the Libs care about Homosexuals. It bothers them unless the homosexual in question is famous or rich.
Bleak’s cartoon is a good one:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/imagedata/0,,5765913,00.jpg
Edward StJohn Says: “And what are you George the dalek?”
Call me whatever you like, but one thing I’m not and that’s a bigot.
Ron Brown, just do like the rest of us and cast your vote today (DST). More than that we cannot do (apart from handing out HTVs). The poll numbers have entertained us over the last few months, but now truly is the moment when so few have done for so many … errr … something … Oh! Right! vote Labor – for a New Leadership! and especially, to remove the meretricious and over-adumbrated dog-whistle-virtuoso JWH from any significant spoiling role in our nation. Advance Australia! yee-hah! kick him out the back door! (oh we’re supposed to stop doing that) – anyway, vote early, legally, and often!
Oh come on Paul K,
I am not getting drawn into this debate, of course attitudes in 1971 were silly, but I honestly dont think anyone cares today.
Dave and George – the Beavis and Butthead of Poll Bludger
hehehe, Bleak has been a highlight.
See you all for the count, and the post-mortem!
I wanna see Ministerial heads roll!
HUZZAH!
Edward,
I agree it’s not worth arguing about but I still don’t think most Libs could accept an openly gay candidate.
Edward StJohn Says: “Dave and George – the Beavis and Butthead of Poll Bludger”
ESJ, the bigot… like the rest of the right-wing Liberals. And B&B are awesome!
ESJ @ 1457, LOLROTFL – even though i fundamentally disagree with you in so many ways he he he
ESJ @ 1458 – you could always try the echidna defence. You don’t always have to play the chihuahua behind the big fence you know!
Good night all
night Edward.
Missed your last comment wyiswyg, true, but I cant resist administering a good smackdown.
BBC World News has a bit on the election in Australia and from listening to it you’d think Iraq was the major issue of the campaign. I’m constantly amazed at how foreign journos misunderstand Australia. Makes you wonder if any of the stuff we hear about what’s going on overseas is accurate either.
I have to make some calls to the States, but I’ll leave you all with the words of Tracee Hutchison in today’s SMH:
Today is the day that we tell John Howard — and his elephant — it is time for them to go. Today is the day for Australia to reclaim its sense of justice, humanity, equality and pride. Today is the day we tell each other and the world that we are a decent, good-hearted, generous people who reach out and reach down and walk tall because of it.
And today is the day John Winston Howard walks into the hall of mirrors that is the politically, socially and culturally redefined multicultural electorate of Bennelong.
Oh, what an epitaph. That the man whose political party played the race card once too often — in his 11th hour — is not only tipped out of government, but the man himself tipped out of his now culturally diverse seat by the very people he used so successfully for so long as pawns in his political chess game.
Could there be a sweeter decline?
nite all, see ya round like a rissole
George @ 1461 – Thanks! Bill Leak has been the chronicler of the campaign for sure. I can’t wait for monday – his effort *has* to be the result in the ring!
Night, night.
Booth duties, Boothby, crack of.
Happy Voting.
paul k, couldn’t agree more, except for the correspondents who have lived here for a while. Only then do they realise just how blessed, clever, and thtoopid we are
Labor by 80 seats.Goodnight all.
George, me + you + Tracee = 3 votes. Long way to go buddy, but we’ll get there. Otherwise I’m a goin back to Brasil!!!
Me too. Good night folks. Hopefully my last sleep under a Howard Govt.
nath, night, see you on Happy Sunday!
FINAL TIP
Labor-Rudd by 10 seats.
Reality check. OK new govt…margin?, seats? whatever. now what…..party is over on MONDAY START THINKING OF THE FUTURE
FFS – did not one of you suposedly accute obsrevers look, as I did, at the eyes of PC on LL and see what I saw?!?
I suppose the lot of you are too busy staring down JoM and LTEP to see what the rest (99.95%) of the electorate are seeing? Sorry little bunch of poll-wankerz!
Look beyond the electoral significance of your own waffle (approaching 0)
Newspoll is pro-coalition rubbish, read this article:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/howard-needs-a-miracle/2007/11/22/1195321949364.html
and especially note this line:
“But sources from both main parties believed that the Herald poll more accurately reflected what their internal polling had found.”
good moaning everyone. http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/newspoll24.11.07.pdf
Newspoll pdf is online now.
What a beat up. Take out the 12 point swing in the last 3 days in the WA figures and guess what, u end up with, about 54/46 lead the ALP’s way.
In fact, SA looks like being strong (57/43 from memory), Qld, Nsw & Vic hold up well too.
So much for the “narrowing” hype. Anything to sell a paper hey.
I can’t get my head around that HUGE shift in primaries in WA in 3 days. Can this be a completely different polling base to the previous one? I can’t figure it out now, too tired, but going to bed happy knowing that the 8 point gap is still largely in play, praise the Lord. Staying with 88-60-02 and looking good.
Centrebet now blown back out:
ALP $1.30
COAL $3.55
Centrebet now further back out:
ALP $1.29
COAL $3.65
Go Australia!
Davo @ 190
Might that be The Herald’s way of trying to legitimise its poll’s findings? (Hope it is correct however)
same old newspoll rubbish the key statement is ‘preference flow calculated on 2004 result’ That is now hopelessly out of date with the rise of the greens and the much higher flow of greens preferences to labor
Morning All,
Wishing everyone a happy election day.
Go Labor!
Anyone voting at Excelsior Publi School in Castle Hill this morning between 8-10, come up & say g’day – I’m in Kev 07 livery.
Likewise Bert Oldfield Primary School Seven Hills between 2-5.
Good luck to all.
Vote early & vote often.
Morning all.
The final Morgan poll is 53.5-46.5: http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2007/4251/
Morgan: 53.5-46.5
Worst case scenario: Taking two points off Labor, and adding two points to LNP gives 51.5-48.5
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