Sky News reports tomorrow’s Newspoll at 52-48. The Australian reports a sample size of 2614, but no primary votes. Normally you wouldn’t doubt the result with four polls telling you 52-48, 52-48, 54.5-45.5 and 57-43, but surely there’s some significance to the fact that the two closest polls of the year have come in the day before polling day.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
1,500 Comments
1st
You beauty.
Hopefully it gets closer and closer
How very Galaxy of them…
I’m still predicting 87 seats to Labor at the least. Bring on tomorrow night!
phew
it won’t be less than 52 then.
labor will win
Bahahaha. Cliffhanger pffft!!!
What an anticlimax.
Government still pooned.
whats happening on the betting markets?
Well, 52-48. I’ll take that with MOE, which I guess is about 2-3%? I can’t see the LNP being happy with that.
4 poll average 53.6?
yawn. i’ll take the less volatile and steady AC Neilsen thank you.
galaxy and newspoll. what a farce.
Well this is the last Newspoll, and considering that last time round, Newspoll favoured Labor by 2.7 points, it puts Howard in the lead on 2pp, and will romp home to victory.
Have the primaries been published ?
This will be as low as it goes – labor will win.
So 3 Pollsters show a 2% drop to ALP in one week
IF they are right , then 9 months polling was absolutely useless and MISLEADING
Absolutely disgusted and sad
@brad: looks like a lot of money is being dropped on the LNP this arvo.
80 seats I will be right. Was it Charles that had all the predictions a while ago?
Still sticking with 89 seat to Labor with a TPP of 54%.
Oh, Denis, never stop being Denis.
Newspoll uses the fixed 69/31 ratio for distributing preferences. Labor would probably pick up at least 75% or more of Green preferences plus some others. So it’s probably more like 54/46.
I see no reason to change my prediction of a minimum 80 seats to Labor.
Primaries?
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22808891-601,00.html
cliffhanger yawn – no news here people just moe
labor to win comfortably
The simple fact is, the Coalition is out of it.
The only two possible scenarios are:
1) Comfortable ALP win
2) Crushing ALP win.
Reminder to all: John Howard did NOT campaign today in Leichart, held on a 10% margin, because this one will be tight.
So, 4 poll average is the best predictor
ACN 57 = ALP win
Galaxy 52 = ALP win
Morgan 54.5 = ALP win
Newspoll 52 = ALP win
Average = 53.87 a swing of over 6% from 2004
Bring it on!
Oh smeg.
This is exactly what JWH needed – a poll which could be spun to give the electorate the feeling that by voting for him, they are backing a winner.
Smeg. I’m going to have a word with the “analyst” of Newspoll….
That’s it? Cliffhanger, days of counting, court of disputed returns? I guess they have to sell papers but after the build up this is a serious let down. Average of polls must be about 54 ALP – no change
What a shame they’ve sorted out their dodgy preference allocation from last time.
Bull Butter
Bahahaaa! I cant wait to see your faces tomorrow when Rudd romps it.
So cruel of Newspoll to do this to you. And actually, its 52-48. Nothing new, another poll showing ALP will win.
I personally think elements of the Oz public ARE dumb enough that Howard will get a 1% kick out of Lindsay gate. Usual grubby trick – but to no avail.
It wont save your hides Saturday!
Again, tell me, what national poll has the ALP losing this election?
The sample size was larger than average – 2614.
sweet!!!!!!!!!!!!
52-48
Howie by 3
ladies and gentleman we now have the narrowing.
GAME ON
it will be fun to watch some of the pollsters wipe away all that egg
http://www.iasbet.com has the Coalition blowing out ot $4.50.
Newspoll are just copying Galaxy so they don’t look stupid by themselves.
ALP will have 12 seats won by the times the polls close in QLD.
I think John, you are falling into the same trap we “lefties” are falling into. You’ve been so use to seeing mid to high 50’s for Labor’s TPP that you view 52 as being bad for Labor and 48 being good for the coalition this far out from the election. Hell, that is a loss for your side John.
Take some time to remember just why Howard will be voted out tomorrow:
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=MVzO017lcA4
An rant about what was wrong with the last 11 years set to a pretty catchy tune.
defence chief to make announcement at 4.30
Shanahan makes me want to puke
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22808891-601,00.html
“After being written off as a ‘has been’ John Howard’s last week of campaigning will give the Coalition hope of pulling off a miraculous victory tomorrow. “
They’ve used the 2004 preference flows. Can one of the wiser heads explain if that is or isn’t a problem?
what poll was best in 2004?
pamphletgate impact still to come…tomorrow
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22808949-12377,00.html
Rudd shakes hands ‘like a girl’
MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE
With ACN disappearing in one direction and Galaxy and Newspoll heading in the other, Morgan musn’t be able to believe his luck…
The media narrative tonight and tomorrow morning, unfortunately, will be:
Howard is making a potentially remarkable comeback in the very last moments of the campaign. Sad, but true, nothwithstanding the true import of the poll, which is not clear yet, given no primary etc.
Nostro: Nielsen has got it pretty much right for the last 3 elections.
David Briggs must be suddenly doing Newspoll as well.
Or, they’ve oversampled Western Australia for some strange reason.
Ron Brown (15) I told you earlier today that Morgan DOESN”T show a 2% drop in the ALP primary. Their phone poll at the beginning of the campaign was 45% ALP. Now it is 44.5% ALP. Also it’s much bigger face to face poll, which always has a higher ALP primary than its phone polls, is still to come tomorrow. Try to get a grip man.
Well at least now they can gets some bets on the LNP.
Nice to have two independent pollsters around.
This poll result is of course not credible except for being moe and, not consistent. You will see 54/46 tomorrow – and Rudd is out there still tring to pick up those 10% seats.
How in the world do you coalition supporters expect to win the election with 48% TPP? It won’t happen?
Dario – this is hardly the time nor place to promote a Simpsons cartoon character!!
The Narrowing!The Narrowing!The Narrowing!The Narrowing!The Narrowing!The Narrowing!The Narrowing!The Narrowing!The Narrowing!The Narrowing!The Narrowing!The Narrowing!The Narrowing!The Narrowing!The Narrowing!The Narrowing!
Dario, what have you got against Larry and Curly?
Jason Wood in La Trobe must be in trouble. Some old duck (probably his mum) standing on the side of the road with a lib sign.
1. Why is Geoffery Rush commenting on the election on Sky?
2. Any suggestions on what the big red banner of Defence Chief statement at 4:30 is going to be about?
Glen: Newspoll is the same size as ACN
Big sample – 2614 – when was it taken, and was it loaded towards the marginals?
i’d say death of troops
Taking into consideration the recent volatility of newspoll, the real figure is a reasounding win to Libs at 50/50…
I am eminently happy with 52:48. Frightens the waverers back into line.
You Lib supporters just don’t know what’s coming.
Then plug 53.87 TPP into AG’s calculator and you get
ALP 87
LNP 61
IND 2
Grover @ 56 – apparently an incident re an Aussie soldier in Afghanistan.
Burgey, Richie Benaud said a little bit of it was after the Lindsay fiasco.
Does anyone know the MOE?
Denial – is that all you leftards can manage?
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/poll.gif
Looks a bit silly to me.
I am praying it’s not a troop death – I have a mate serving o/s. A troop death on election eve – surely could not bode well for Howard?
That idiot from Dickson won’t vote for Rudd because of his handshaking method?
LMAO
best news all day… you lot got me all worked up for the last hour about impending “narrowing”… this is a great result.. it is well within MOE…the only independent poller is ACN and they have the best methodology (whether it will be accurate who knows but that is the case) .. . the average of the polls suggests well over 53… which is landslide territory…
This Defence Chief announcement at 4.30pm makes me extremely nervous – is it the ultimate rabbit out of hat from Howard?
Yes Asanque, so we have AC outlyer at 57, a dodgy Morgan phone poll at 55-45 and 2 polls at 52-48…hmmm either way 2 polling companies are wrong.
Still id rather it be 52-48 than 58-42.
So from 61/39 to 52-48 Howie has done well to come back but its anybodies guess who’ll win tomorrow.
The 2004 preference flows belong to 2004, much stronger to Labor this time round. Across the country at that to.
No Nostradamus.
I know.
You are right.
Howard in a landslide.
Grover. I think someone mentioned a death in Afghanistan.
Flash. Friday night is the lowest point in the news cycle. everyone is out at the pub, or taking kids to friends’ houses, or having people over for dinner.. etc. no impact.
No political party has ever lost an election with 52% of the vote.
Ever.
Howard Hater he voted pre-polled for Labor i think from the article lol he wanted to change his vote though lol!
Something is really f’ed up here. ACN has a poll that is 57/43 and a MOE of about 2%, and Newspoll has a 52/48 with a MOE of 2%. These don’t overlap. Only one to overlap wan others is Morgan.
MOE: 0.98/sqrt(2614)= 1.9%
Pamhplettgate will only aid coalition, I’m afraid. But too late.
Its really well poised for a very satisfying night: ALP will win easily, by 830pm, and if that aint good enough: look at the ridiculous contortions the GG are in!
backing ALP at the last mo, after a full year of scandalously stupid pro-government spin, then spinning this poll (which shows ALP winning) as a last minute reprieve! Oh boy. This is gonna be good.
Ship the eggs in. Its gonna be a long messy breakfast on Sunday.
I think the SMH says it all
“The latest Newspoll says the Coalition is improving but Kevin Rudd will still win for Labor tomorrow.
The results, announced at 4pm, puts Labor in front at 52 per cent on a two-party preferred basis, compared with the Coalition’s 48 per cent.”
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/rudd-will-win-new-poll/2007/11/23/1195753279860.html
I told you all the Budget Bounce would come.
Thanks, Autocrat.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22808968-601,00.html
Digger killed in Afghanistan
AN Australian soldier is believed to have died in an “operational incident” in Afghanistan.
I think in fact the worst result long-term for the Libs would be Labor 76, Ind 2, LNP 72. This is because the fewest of the current bunch would be swept away – there would be much gnashing of teeth over things like the Lindsay pamphlets, the Costello “handover” etc. Howard might still be there causing problems. This was the pattern of several states – NSW 95, Qld 98, Vic 99 – followed by massive Labor wins. I think a Coalition wipe-out is probably better for them in the long term – gets rid of more “deadwood”.
Or how about ALP 75, Ind 2, LNP 73 – Bob Katter / Tony Windsor could be speaker and wouldn’t either of them just love that!
As has beenpointed out, some pollsters are gogni to look very silly on Saturday night. They can’t all be right.
Maybe an attempt to limit the damage to Howard.
good luck everyone. we’ll know in just over a day now.
The Australian reports:
“Newspoll’s two-party preferred figure, based on preference flows at the 2004 election, has the Labor Party in front by 52 per cent to the Coalition’s 48 per cent”
How does this compare to 2pp this election?
Reactions to this poll from both “sides” is quite funny. The poll itself is quite ho-hum. It’s possible the Coalition may still win, but two 52-48 polls not in their favour is piss weak evidence and I’m not going to worry about something that’s not likely to eventuate.
Lenore Taylor & Ovington on Sky coming up now – very mismatched pair.
caroline going to be completely outclassed
This movement defies all logic (MOE considerations notwithstanding). This last week as been a disaster for the coalition as was the previous week. Are we to believe that campaign has had no effect whatsoever??
Rejoice 28 hours left and no more Howard govt.
The 52:48 2pp is just for the loser libs to buy the friggin newspaper and read about the narrowing. Had they been more realistic like Nielson or Morgan Uncle rupes papers wouldn’t have sold as well
Yet another poll showing Labor will win. Very reassuring. When I see a single poll or analyst showing a Labor loss, I’ll start worrying. In the words of the Bard;
Banquo: It will be rain tonight
First murderer: Let it come down
Lenore Taylor zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Well I guess that’s it then.
Every poll conducted since Rudd was elected has Labor at least 4 points ahead.
And the Liberals are ecstatic? How come they’re still $4.50?
For them it’s a bit like the excitement of watching the Lotto balls coming up. You figure you’re in with a chance but really, deep down, you know it’s not going to happen.
Tony Windsor even without his mentor Peter Andren would possibly be a fine speaker and give impetuous to making the speakers electorate a non-contestable one.
When was the Newspoll taken? Shanahan’s story refers to final 72 hours being a cliffhanger – does this mean it was taken 3 days out?
OVerington on sky = chunder…
The Australian Newspoll – will have to wait until tomorrow to find out the primary votes.
Ho Hum – rodents still going down
Pretty much.
Or more precisely the minutiae of the campaign and their analysis are of low importance to most voters.
At least we know now there are no other polls to worry about. The worst polls for the year came out as 52/48 for the ALP.
I’m still a little surprised they didn’t poll Bennelong for publication this morning.
So, in sum, all polls point to Ruddster.
I can get back to work!
Enjoy, bludgers. May drop in tonight – last night of the Howard regime.
So, apparently Morgan have one more poll coming out.
Doubt they’ll be predicting a “cliffhanger”.
Gary Bruce, personally I think Labor will get over the line by a couple of seats. But let’s be very clear – the Coalition can win if they get 48%. As I showed on this site a few days ago…. they could actually do it with less, though obviously it becomes less likely.
The thing people are not factoring in is that the Liberals have not campaigned in any Labor seats, so there are big swings to the ALP in seats it already holds. There are also some bigger swings in Lib safe seats…
So the swing in the marginals could be such that the Govt holds on, just. Now as I say, I think Labor will get over the line, but don’t think 52-48 is safe for Labor. If it is 52-48 tomorrow it will be a coin toss. Remember, in 1987 Hawke would have won with 47.9% (though he got more)
This is a con – buy tomorrows GG to get the full results. Ha Ha
This poll shows Bennelong lost, yeah.
Overington on Sky…..what to do the “coloring in”
3% improvement for the LNP after this week? pfft…
Econocrat. my thought exactly.
When was the last election a party won with 48%TPP?
Accept it. It looks as though 52 48 is where we are sitting at the moment.
57 for Labor is so out of the ballpark for Labor that its not funny. This is the outlier and it should be forgotton.
I have got the gut feeling that this election is going to be very very close.
Either side can win at this stage.
Does Overington make animals out of long balloons or juggle as well?
thanks Guru. it takes a bit of guts to go against the pack.
The problem with just dismissing this (and the Galaxy poll which is unfavourable) as MOE is that you’re dismissing all incremental movements. Surely you have to look at the totality of campaign Newspolls. Effectively you have seen the gap close from 16% at the start of the campaign to 4% on Election Eve. It may comfort people to dismiss that 12% close as all MOE. For mine though, it represents a genuine narrowing. Having said that, I still expect Labor to win 53/47. ACN is dreaming, just quietly.
Howard cannot win win 48% tpp.
LOL!
Ah, poor lib sympathisers. Newspoll/Galaxy flunkies giving you a little tune to whistle in the dark to keep your spirits up.
It beggers belief that after the campaign week the coalition had they’d pull back so much. . . And with Howard campaigning in seats with a 10% buffer
The devil will be in to detail ( and the rounding which we wont see)
There’ll be an anomaly in the national vote and negligible movement on primary.
Is there any reason to suspect this is any more than NO CHANGE from a week ago ?
It’s likely this was taken Wed/Thur nights; this is normal for Newspoll’s final. Newspoll uses aggregate minor party prefs flows from 2004. That means it doesn’t matter what the Greens got, it just gives 61% of prefs to Labor automatically. If Labor support has gone to the Greens, the 2PP will not reflect any increase in Greens; it’ll only reflect a decrease in Labor’s primary.
Haha – just look at the Newspoll history – see the odd one out? Are the playing games here or just an unlucky sample?
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/poll.gif
I don’t see why we can’t take the Morgan polls of 58+ seriously but we will take these 52s so serious.
I think it is dumb asking who has had the better or worse campaign. The winner of the campaign is whoever wins the election.
If we take the five polls released in the last 24 hours (ACN did phone and online, both with the same results, hmm), and throw out the highest and lowest, we still have 57-43, 54-46 and 52-48.
Which seems to point to something in the 54-46 range.
Ruawake, i agree 48% is not good, but the simple math of this shows they can win with 48% …. it is not open to dispute, it is a matter of simple maths… .whether they do is entirely a matter of where the swings are…
that said, i think Labor will get there
Labor can get 51% and still lose.
Newspoll says Labor has 52%
Can the lefties at least acknowledge that the election might be close?
Talk of a landslide is now clearly hubris.
We knew the final polls would show a narrowing. This is no longer in dispute.
I expect there will be a continuing move back to the coalition until polls close.
Forget the pollsters (we always knew these were nothing more than a rough guide). The real ‘egg on face’ brigade will be the bookies.
Greg
True, to go from 16% to 4% is a narrowing, but such a movement against such anionept government especially with the campaigning is not right, there are errors in there.
probably the 16% is too high and the 4% is too low and the final result is somehwere in between.
God let this be over. I’ve done bugger all work this week. If my boss has been tracking my web use I’m out. I wonder if i can get a job as a pollster. After Saturday some of them will be losing there jobs.
ruawake – Your on the money!
Now Now. Leave the Liberals be. So far they’ve enjoyed believing their own spin, don’t deny them their last moments of delusion. “We caught them napping”
10pse you can say that ’til you’re blue in the face and they won’t agree with you.
Jim I doubt the bookies are going to care if Labor lose… they’ll pocket heaps.
Damn.
If the preferences are being allocated 60/40 then the primary votes are 46/44.
If the preferences are being allocated 70/30 then the primary votes are 45/45. I bet they did 60/40 and that is underestimating.
So , I reckon Labor are on at least a 46% primary and that the we can’t but win with that.
Hold the line people. Hold the line.
I’d really like a look at the state-by-state, frankly.
POLL ANALYSIS
Lets accept 3 pollsters drop Labor’s vote by 2% in a week
and maybe the ‘Lindsay’ Muslim rort DID FAVOR the Liberals in thurs nite polling
1/ What does 52% mean ???? 52% can be anywhere from 51.51% to 52.44%
2/ 52% to 48%….but we do NOT know now WHICH STATES have the swing
OPTIMISTIC
eg. if it is 52 to 48 in Q’LD vs 2004 ACTUAL Labor 2 PP vote of 42.91%
then that is a state (but NOT seat swing of 9.09%)
PESSIMISTIC
5% in Vic and 8% in SA is useless
Labor needs the big swing in Q’ld OR a bigger swing again in NSW
I am shattered to see 2% primary disappear in a week
Without seeing the primary votes, I’d suggest that preference flows aren’t factored in correctly (as some have noted above). Higher Greens primaries, as they’ve only started to advertise in the last two weeks, and bad preference allocation depress what should be 53/47 to 52/48.
As a Labor supporter, yes, there has been a tightening in the polls, but only because the 60/40 stuff was outrageous and never going to happen. Remember, the most popular Labor PM ever, Hawke, got 53.7% of the TPP in ‘83. And Rudd ain’t Hawkie (neither is Howard’s Government as unpopular or as economically beset as Fraser’s was). So Rudd was never going to get 55% at the ballot box.
My prediction? 53-47 tomorrow, and ultimately 82-84 seats for the ALP. Along with a lot of big swings in safe seats, and a couple of potential upsets, eg North Sydney. Some margins cut down to become low-hanging fruit for the ALP in their first tilt at re-election come 2010.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/poll.gif
Doesn’t look a narrowing to me. The sequence makes this poll look like an outlier.
Only the Galaxy has shown a genuine narrowing of sorts.
primaries 44 43 according to rumour at PP
Well, that’s the narrowing over and done, bring on the election. Still Labor’s election.
incidentally, in case Ruddites were hoping that the 52 was rounded down from 52.4 for instance, i am reliably informed from party sources that it was in fact rounded up…. just trying to get exact number… sounds like 51.7 – 48.3
Hahahahahaha….look at the lib backers…..like a 13 y/o boy who has found dads stash of porn………in the end still not the real thing
So does that mean that if the Libs win tomorrow
EVERY POLLING COMPANY WILL HAVE EGG ON THEIR FACE?
It is funny how happy some of the Labor supporters are at the prospect that John Howard will lose this election. And they are so happy that Kevin Rudd will win this election, so who is Kevin?
He is a fiscal conservative, whose wife is one of the most successful entrepreneur in Australia. He is from a business background and his whole campaign has been “that we will do everything that Howard has done”. The policy of the 2 is so similar, that it is almost impossible to differentiate between them ….. yes Kevin will agree to Kyoto, no target in the near future, but Australia will reduce emmition by 50% by 2050 (ie when Kevin is dead)
He wants to be the next John Howard, the nerd his own party didn’t like, but was at the right place and the right time to win an election. Rudd’s policy is so far to the right that he might have won the Liberal leadership challenge if there was one.
There is really no choice on Saturday, we can vote for the Liberals or the Liberals under Rudd. And people here are so happy. LOL
yes 10pse, Isabella was talking about a 51.5/48.5 earlier.
Accept it, we are probably at lowest ALP 53% at highest ALP 55% but most likely close to 54% This will be a landslide or at worst a comfortable win.
The real worry for Howard is if the AC Nielsen did pick up a trebd of a lot of dissafected voters because of his disasterous campaign and the interest rate rise and were on exodus.
We will just change it dufus……hahahahahahaha
New Boothby poll thread, if anyone’s interested.
Battening down the hatches, are we, dovif?
Jim @ 125
It might be you that has egg on your face tomorrow Jim. If the polls are only a rough guide, how can you say there is a narrowing based on one or two polls? There’ve been over 100 polls averaging 55/45 yet you choose the two lowest in the set to demonstrate that the rest are wrong?
pathological logic
no, just happy the right will remain in power
Anyone know when the poll was actually taken and whether it was based on a broad national sample or something more specifically focused?
I get suspicious when only 2PP results are presented, especially given “issues” with preference treatment by some pollers.
The absence of any breakdown of the “Coalition” vote into Lib and Nat leaves some big questions too. When Newspoll has “peaked” for the coalition in recent times we’ve often seen it associated with a higher than usual Nat primary vote, sometimes even counteracting a decline amongst the Libs. This suggests that sometimes a higher proportion of country voters get polled. Given that almost all of the vulnerable coalition seats are actually held by the Libs this can make a big difference to the meaning of the poll.
Cheers
Rod
This is a mid-week poll. Haven’t we seen previous mid-week polls are less favourable for ALP ? If so, don’t know why ? Working people harder to track down on a weeknight ? Anyone found any underlying data for the Newspoll ?
If neophyte’s 44-43 primaries are the case, the Greens must be doing well, and their prefs will go to Labor. Probably more like 53-47 in that case.
52% TPP in Qld is 10 seats. Ha Ha
Its not close at all.
LOL redwombat – I agree. The REAL thing is on tomorrow & I KNOW Labor will win!
This is such transparently biased polling I cannot believe we are giving it credence by posting.
83:65:2.
Rob at #149:
To be fair, Jim did choose the two latest as well as the two lowest.
151 Jim
we do know the Galaxy was taken BEFORE race-hate gate
This will be my last post on this blog before the big night. I am predicting 87 seats to Labor and feeling pretty good. I will sleep well tonight and enjoy the fireworks tomorrow.
Thanks to william and the other contributers for making this a great site.
See you all tomorrow
there is normally a 2% error in the sample anyway most people who are at work are not been sampled or has no time to be sampled
ruawake where do you get the idea it’s 52 in Queensland?
At Newspolls usual 69:31 pref split, this’d give 53/47. Something isn’t quite right.
So LTEP, you didn’t have the guts to take me on, you phony gutless fake.
this poll certainly make the Libs happy, but I’m sure they would be in heaven if the results was reversed: Labor 48 / Coalition 52. hahahahhhh
Sure, Labor are not so happy with this result, but get real gentlemen, who are happier?
CALM DOWN YOU LOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
There, that should work!
First thing, it’s Newspoll, ’nuff said.
Second thing: Rudd will win this
Third thing: See second thing
Oh yeah, and it’s much better that we get a couple of dodgey and anomalous polls the day before voting because it really focuses the mind of the electorate. Punters will have to think about it more, and not just go ‘oh well, Rudd’s in anyway so my vote won’t count’.
So, calm down, the Rodent is packing now.(In both senses)
I can’t for the life of me understand why on the eve of an election they can’t ask voters who specify a minor party with their first preference “who will receive your higher preference between Liberal and Labor?”
The fact that the Oz still thinks it is 2004 makes me think they want to get a bad result.
Why would Newspoll trash their own reputation at this stage of the election? It’s not biased. It may be right. It may be wrong. But it’s not biased.
I’d not heard that one about mid-week polls before. Interesting theory.
centre I’m here to discuss polls and politics, not to get into petty and childish fights with anyone. Who cares if I’m fake? Get over it. If William had a problem with me posting here he’d let me know and I’d go. Let’s not waste his time with petty squabbling.
Wake up to yourself, Centre.
William, yes… I’ve noticed mid-week polls tend to produce lower numbers for the ALP. That’s not scientific, it’s just what I’ve noticed. Remember that (at that time) low 55/45 for the ALP a few months ago that was taken mid-week to judge Budget reactions?
Rob, I would rather take the last 23 of your 100 polls than the first 2, that were when, in April?
You have to have punt and I think ACN will be proven closet of the polls done today. But I will take the Hubris off my toast and say Labour will have to settle for 56 TPP. = 95 seats.
Needed that 52-48 Newspoll like a hole in the head. I was hoping to be able to enjoy the day tomorrow – now I will be worrying about Collywobbles all day.
10 pse, assuming 44/43 is correct for primaries:
If it was TPP 51.7 then that would imply that Labor’s primary of 43.5 (worst case) and Coalition’s primary (best case) of 43.5 that the preference allocation was 63% to Labor!!!
Nice try – but BUZZZZ – you lose
If the preference allocation is more like 69% where it should be you get 52.47 worst case for Labor
LTEP
If Qld is not 52% then other states are even higher. 52-48 is a Labor win no matter how anyone would like to spin it.
The polls which came out at the start of the campaign (after the Libs tax cuts) were mid-week polls weren’t they?
So what is Johnnie going to say when he calls George W to apologise for losing the election?
” That bloody Muslim pamphlet thing you told us to try didn’t work ”
” It’s Costello’s fault. I could have won but the people didn’t want me to hand over to the Smirk ”
” I still love you George “
Calm down people. There will be no landslide. 82-84 seats is still 22-24 won by the ALP…that’s around 16% of the House changing hands. if you want more, you;re greedy – if you expect more you’ll be disappointed.
Newspoll actually does us all a favour. Waters down the anticipation of 90+ seats. Would hate to see mass depression on this site if the ALP ‘only’ win 80-85 seats, which has been the likely result all along. Maybe now, given the increased nervousness, people will take the 10-15 majority and be mighty pleased indeed – its a great result.
Agree its hard to reconcile narrowing with this week of Lib campaigning. Had bullishly gone out to 84:64:2, but anything >80 meets expectations.
Here’s the predictable Shanahack piece: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22808891-601,00.html
Zochling, I did mention the Colliwobbles here a month ago.
True ruawake, the national figures will mostly be comprised of the most populous states. Unless there’s a huge wild result in one of the less populous states it wouldn’t have a huge impact on the national figure.
Samuel K, unlike you, i don’t apply my own preference flows… i am simply reporting what the Newspoll showed… i don’t vouch for their methodology one way or the other… i am just reporting that that is what i have been told. make of it what you will. unlike many on hear i just like to analyse the info, i don’t barrack
The GG is already linking to it, don’t miss the Star Wars Election – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H1lYCbjzQ4I
Brilliantly done
Why don’t the editors correct Shanhan’s stupid mistakes? He used the word “average” when he actually meant “normal” or “usual”.
If they’ve narrowed this much hopefullly they narrow further tomorrow.
180
I will take any majority, even with indies as per Bracks in 99.
Anything to be rid of the rodent.
Anything. Even the rodent losing his seat and the smirk would be better.
Well I’m actually quite relieved. I was expecting 50/50 at the very least!
All I can say now is that I hope it’s ACN that comes up trumps and that Newspoll and Galaxy end up, in the immortal words of Senator Ron Boswell: with “egg all over their faces from head to toe”!
and yes i know i misspelt here as hear
If it is a hung parliment and the independants have to choose I hope they choose JWH
Joffaboy,
You would rather Peter “HR-Nicholls-Dollar-Sweets-Lets-Have-no-more-awards-or-youth-wages” Costello?
Jeez, give me Abbott anyday, if I had to pick one of that lot.
Well, if it is close in the end then we’ll probably learn something about how quickly a population can change it’s mind – I certainly wouldn’t have credited it after the trend we’ve watched.
I’ll be a disappointed amateur pseph if the trending can change so rapidly, because it’ll mean the trends are worthless. Personally I don’t believe it can – it means nearly a million people will change their minds in a fortnight, against the campaign logic; though that same campaign logic could go out the door too…
It’ sounds like sour grapes at this stage, but a change of the magnitude suggested is a real smack in the face for the pollsters – it means they’ve been failing to get below the surface of the voters to discover anything meaningful.
The ALP problem with this presumed momentum is that it might bring even more focus to voters in tight electorates, and then there’s definitely momentum…
This is going to be a tense 30 hours or so.
Portlandbet.
UPDATE – 100+ seats in total Labor seat market backed into $8.50!!
What a surprise.
The conservatives have firmed slightly in the betting so far. They are still 4.50 with IAS but that should be snapped up soon.
William, LTEP has gone from being pessimistic to being ecstatic. He never fooled me as to his true colours. You can support anyone you like, but he has been taking the other commenters for a ride.
They will narrow further tomorrow. Nothing like a real election will test the electorate’s mettle when considering change; most are likely to stick with the safe option.
ALP – 74
LNP – 74
IND – 2
ALP gains (14) – Kingston (SA), Bonner (QLD), Wakefield (SA), Makin (SA), Braddon (TAS), Parramatta (NSW), Hasluck (WA), Bass (TAS), Solomon (NT), Moreton (QLD), Lindsay (NSW), Eden-Monaro (NSW), Blair (QLD), Herbert (QLD)
LNP gains (0) – Nil
If it is 52-48 that means the Tory vote in WA must be big enough to give us a shot at Cowan and Swan
Just received an automated SMS from Kevin07:
L – yup.
Anything would be better than this small, insular, petty, banal little, little man.
Anything that is on the front bench on the Coalition would be preferable.
I would actually prefer Turnbull or Brough as I think they are both good HR’s but if I had to settle for the smirk I would.
The Shambollocks writes:
“After he was written off as a ‘has-been’, John Howard’s last week of campaigning will give the Coalition hope of pulling off a miraculous victory tomorrow. ”
All hail the Great Leader’s campaign against the Barbarians!
What the f#ck won’t he do to lick Howard’s nether regions?
Howard’s last week of campaigning was as flat as last last night’s beer and had a racist act in the middle of it, courtesy his one time pall Ms Kelly.
Oh yeah, Shambollocks, it was truly brilliant stuff!
GALAXY FEEDBACK
no good news today
rang Galaxy re where was labor’s 52% (between 51.51% up to 52.44%)
would NOT give the figure
BUT UNFORTUNATELY said it was UNDER 52%
Nostradamus,
Enjoy it while you can. In about 30 hours from now you’ll be a snivelling emotional wreck.
Nostradamus and Glen I hope so.
Shanahack was insufferable on the Sky news piece you can get at the GG web site.
10pse – it’s not barracking – it’s arithmetic
A win is a win. In 2002, Mike Rann had to rely on a disaffected Liberal to govern. Look how he turned that around to a landslide in the next election.
At least my tip of 79 seats to the ALP on Ozpolitics from the first half of the year is looking good. After all, the polls are only about what I’d like to see right?
Ha 52-48 could mean if we hold the swings to safe Lib and safe Lab seats and hold our marginals we could still cling to power, also this result means WA should be status quo or Cowan and maybe Swan thus the Tories will have 2 + Calare.
Glen @ 198
Cowan – yes, the Tories will win Cowan, but not Swan. If the ALP held Swan against Cyclone Latham last time, they won’t lose it this time, especially not against a Lib candidate who refuses to campaign in person.
Cowan, however, will be the only seat in the country to be taken off the ALP by the Coalition.
Watch Forrest, Canning, and O’Connor though. Forrest has the independent in with a real chance, Canning will swing back to the ALP by about 6-7%, and Tuckey better hope he gets at least 48% of first preferences or he is GORN in O’Connor – every candidate on the ballot is directing prefs to the Nats.
Listen guys, according to Antony:
52% – Lab: 76 Coal: 72 Ind: 2
57% – Lab: 106 Coal: 42 Ind: 2
Like everything else life, the truth or reality will lie somewhere in between. That is the law of nature, somewhere in between. But please dont me tell, but… but… it depends on where the swing is. If so, WTF we are doing here.
This looks like the Vic 99 election in reverse. At that election, Morgan was always much closer over the trend than the other polls, and was close to the actual result. Newspoll said Kennett would win easily for a long time, but got its final results right. ACN, however, had Kennett easily on its final poll 54-46.
In this election, Galaxy may have replaced Morgan as the closest one, and similar pattern to Vic 99 for Newspoll and ACN.
Just to play the devil’s advocate for a moment, I have been concerned ever since Howard promised a truck load of middle/upper class welfare in his campaign launch and Rudd decided to take the high moral ground and offer a lot less. He got the plaudits of the newspaper editors and the journos, but government subsidised private school fees and expenses must have looked mighty attractive to a lot of voters out there. The Liberals have been letter boxing that message furiously since then and I have been waiting to see if there was going to be any spike in the polls for them
Don’t get me wrong. I’m glad Rudd didn’t go down that path. No Labor government, indeed no decent government of ANY persuasion, could go down the path of taking taxes from the less well off to give to the already very comfortable. But I think he could easily have promised a few other goodies with some of the massive amount of money that Howard promised.
Anyway, hopefully in the end it won’t make any difference. This is one time I will be very happy to be proved totally wrong.
202 – but the TPP is a calculation based on presumed preference flows. That breakdown is still an open question.
Comparing the posts here in the last day or so to last week, you have to say there is a massive change in setiement/confidence.
Some like Gary Bruce have (admirably) held the line. He may be stoic, but in defeat.
If LNP win, and its obviously a big ‘if,’ PollBludger will be a sociology student’s wet dream. So much hubris, so many bold predictions, so much anger. And yet the possibility of being so wrong….
If LNP win (bif ‘if and all that), I wont be here tomorrow night. To come back from so far behind. It would equate to the 1979 Carlton GF win over Collingwodd as one of life’s greatest moments. If Labor win, as expected for so long, well, we’ll all survive, hopefully… If LNP win, well, fathers lock up your daughters.
Higgins will be painted blue.
Is it possible for that many people to change their minds just days before the election. Polls experts????
ABC radio are reporting another Digger has been killed in Afghanistan. Hope neither side tries to use this.
Try and plug that figure in here:
http://www.newspoll.com.au/image_uploads/1105%20Fed%2020-11-07.pdf
Ron Brown @ 203:
So Galaxy told you they rounded *UP* to 52% ?
Well well.. this electon is starting to get interesting..
They are playing with our minds.
Centre, maybe you’re right about LTEP, maybe not. But really who cares? If you don’t like another poster’s comments then apply what I call a Glen filter – ignore them.
I love how the nervous nellies are wringing their hands and saying “thats not right, it cant be right, can it?”
Let me tell you, they would not publish these figures if they did not believe it. They have thousands of dollars of revenue relying on the accuracy, and reputation, of their figures.
You cannot just choose the one poll that gives you favourable results and rubbish the others.
Surely the latest Newspoll can only mean greater devastation for the government. It must be remembered that his popularity is still quite solid, many voters aren’t convinced he’s evil, just that they feel it’s time for a change.
Looking at the Neilson poll they would have been thinking “oh, the poor fella, he’s done a reasonable job and we don’t want to see him humiliated. Now with the apparent narrowing they, to use one of the PM’s favourite lines, “won’t risk it”…voting for JWH again that is!
I haven’t been on since this morning. At that time we were all exuberant. I think ESJ described it as workers and peasants singing in flowering fields, bringing in a bountiful harvest. What has changed? Almost all the papers have endorsed Rudd, even the terror and the GG. Momentum is clearly on the ALP side. Regardless of Newspoll, which overestimated the 2PP of the loser in 2004 by 3 percent, and after the disasterous campaign by the Libs, especially this week courtesy of the Kelly gang, can we really see the weasel snatch this?
I Doubt it! Enjoy it!
Dovif youve come home. Welcome back!
Jim, I just knew you were a Carlton supporter too; I bet your heart pumps pure evil:)
Sumpin wrong here fellas. Good dose of Poss or Oz will help. Ain’t no problem these are bashing at the limit of MOE. Some weighting problems somewhere. Trend line, trend line, trend line. Goes against all media negativity to coalition. Does not make sense. She is still steady as she goes. Anxiety ain’t good for your digestion.
Rocket @ 85
I reckon you’re dead right.
A close Labor win will leave most of the ugliest Libs in place without Unca John to (god only knows how or why) give them a human and respectable face. Rudd will run a tight ship anyhow but a close result will ensure discipline.
When the economy doesn’t tank and the unions don’t take over the nation and terrorists don’t blow us all up the lies, smear and fear of the Coalition will be clear to even the stupid that hang on to Unca John this time.
A decimation for this pack of crooks is coming. I still think it’s tomorrow, but if it’s only a close Labor win then 2010 will do fine.
For the sake of democracy I’d love to see Windsor in the big chair. The disgraceful performance of the incumbent demands reform of the Speaker.
The Speaker, rumour has it that both the Newspoll and Galaxy were rounded up to 52/48.
“52-48 is a Labor win no matter how anyone would like to spin it.”
Exactly. People need to take a chill pill. Of course, we all want the polls to point towards a CERTAIN Labor win, but the fact is that all polls have Labor ahead. The chances of the Coalition getting across the line on 48% are VERY LOW. Sure, it can happen, and a Labor win is not certain, but a Labor win is HIGHLY probable.
Better to be 52 than 48. I wouldn’t want to be a Lib supporter right now, desperately hanging onto one tiny shred of hope.
I’m so excited by this election I can’t concentrate.
Sometimes I mean to go to another site but I start typing in http://www.pollb.. automatically oops.
Watcher,
I must be evil. To the posters on this blog, for voting Liberal I am the devil incarnate. Its just that almost half the population side agree.
John of Melbourne, Bob Katter has already said he will support Kevin Rudd.
44-43 primaries sounds normal to me at this stage, but it depends what they are in the different states. WA may well be 46 Lib 44 Lab and that would distort the other states. Libs need to be 3% ahead of Labor on primaries to win. 44-43 would be a comfortable win for Labor. Still go for 85 62 3 or 85 63 2. Final %? 53-47 down to 52.5- 47.5. It was never going to be 56-44. Queensland and western Sydney are the key.
Thanks Richard.
Wow, big gain for Coalition. Must be due to the great last 5 days they’ve had. lol
Richard Jones WA will have minimal impact on the overall figure unless it’s a huge difference to the national figure. All the states should be weighted according to population.
230, LTEP – Galaxy was reported as primaries 42.5 to 42.5, you can do your own calculations and rounding.
Samuel K and others… let’s settle the 52-48 thing once and for all…
52% is 4.7% national swing to Labor…..
…you all respect Antony Green… so let’s do the following:
1. open his HoR calculator.
2. plug in the following:
- NSW 4.7% swing to Labor
- Vic 4.1% swing to Labor
- QLD 6.8% swing to Labor
- WA 0.3% swing to Coalition
- SA 7.1% swing to Labor
- Tas 6.0% swing to Labor
- ACT 5.8% swing to Labor
- NT 0% swing
This produces a national result of 4.7% and it produces 76 seats for Labor… meaning Labor by a nose.
However….. it also is just applying the swings uniformly across all seats which is crazy. For instance, on this scenario it assumes 1 seat gain for Libs in WA… but it could be 2 without affecting the national figure.
Similarly…. it assumes Wentworth would fall under this scenario which is not likely if the statewide NSW swing is only 4.7%… adjust for that and government holds on
…and because i know someone will say but the swing has to come from somewhere… the point is that getting 8% in Joe Hockey’s seat is not enough.
there endeth the lesson.
that said – Labor will win by a nose
Well Galaxy had FF going from 1% to 2.5%, so I think we can get out the salt for that.
2moro will either be one of the best days of my life
or one of the worst days of my life
there will be no in between!!!
For what it’s worth I think this is an excellent poll for the ALP.
For a long time now, a highish Newspoll has been counterbalanced by a low one, and vice-versa. That says to me that there is a select bunch of voters – maybe 2 percent – who want the government out but are wavering about giving Labor too big a majority. A perceived narrowing now is exactly what is needed to frighten them into line and make them vote the right way on the only day that counts.
People voting against Labor because they’re expecting a blowout is the last thing we need. Chill, people. We’re going to win.
Possum does not seem worried. So neither am I. Much. Well maybe a little bit. But I now I really want Newspoll to be wrong, just so the Shill’s “we understand it because we own it” is banished forever
A question I have meant to ask for sometime now…. why do you all worship possum? i mean i get that he has a blog, and does his thing, but you all have your own views surely… why sprout his?
Regarding Greens preference flows . . . I would be VERY surprised if Labor received less than 75-80%. While it’s anecdotal, I believe that where preferences are directed Labor’s way, around 80+% flow. Where there is an open ticket around 70% do. Of course there is some leakage thru interposing other minor parties, but in the current election most of these (at least in urban/regional areas) will be knocked out long before Greens prefs are distributed.
That’s why it’s REALLY frustrating not to have the primaries tabulated right now. What are the Greens results vs the other minors? I guess I’ll have to wait and see.
Doing Greens HTVs/scruting all day 2moro, so I’ll have to take a break from lurking until after the party. Keep up the pace all – it’s great!
10pse – Because Poss is such an animal with his numbers!
Possums has done up some graphs that provide perspective to the hopeful Lib supporters.
http://possumcomitatus.files.wordpress.com/2007/11/allpollsnov231.jpg
Hawkey was hoping for a record [and he would know insider figures] the SMH tells us that the Nielsen 57/43 reflects more closely both the internal Lib and Labor polling than does the Galaxy…and really, the trend tells us that 54% is just about inevitable.
NOW if Howard had some fantastic news and press coverage and a really good last week…..hahaha…quite the opposite, he had a week that gave even faithfull liberal supporters a bad tasted in their mouth.
Even grannys are voting Green in the Senate and Labor.
I’m no poll expert, but it’s interesting to speculate as to the cause of a large shift (if indeed it exists).
I think there’s one message which has been hammered strongly by the Coalition, and not answered well enough by Labor: “they are full of slogans, but there’s no detail behind it”.
Everyone has heard the slogans a million times by now and I think they’ve over done it. In the last week they should have had more ads illustrating their plans in more detail (eg. all their education initiatives). My GF is a Labor supporter and she is completely unaware of most of the education package that Labor has put forward.
I’m still backing Labor to win, but I think they may have failed to lock in the undecided voters in the past week. Labor has a positive message, but I think some swinging voters are a little suspicious of the “spin” because Labor hasn’t emphasized the detail enough.
BTW, still predicting a comfortable Labor win.
Poss attempts to bring rigorous stastistical methods to bear on the polls. He has opinions which he supports by analysis. His analysis is the most convincing I’ve read.
Re 192,
L Says:
L, you need to understand that there are more issues driving our choice than work choices in this instance where Costello is concerned. While I can’t speak for Joffaboy’s reasons, I can share with you my own. I don’t like anyone in the coalition. I am a left leaning labor voter and in fact just today have changed my voting intention tomorrow from 1 ALP 2 Greens in the HOR to 1 Greens 2 ALP. Reason? – because Rudd scuttled the Republic in the short term in the Australian’s article this morning. While I hate the coalition with a passion, IF they were returned [won't happen though
] I would pray with everything inside of me for Howard to lose his seat and Costello to win as then we would HAVE a Republic. The Queen, as well as JWH, has passed her use-by date. Mind you, I grew up and lived in the USA for 43 years (have been here now for 3) and we ditched the monarchy there in 1776 
240 Grog – nice one – pass the sauce eh?
Mock me if you like but it seems Labor dropping in recent polls may be due to karma. There’s been alot of hubris on this website of a Labor victory. I laughed along with it, thought yeah that would be great. Now two polls in a row where Labor’s 2PP is 52% and their primaries I would assume are under 45%. Maybe you guys should stop talking up a Labor win. Karma may actually be a right wing bitch.
Digger killed in Afghanistan
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22808968-601,00.html
God Bless his Soul!
So….why are Galaxy and Newspoll right while ANC and Morgan are wrong??? There’s something fishy about those numbers. Why? Because the Galaxy and Newspoll figures are so at odds with all that has gone before – which makes them the most suspicious. Surely after the last few days there is no one in the country who would swich TO the Libs! I’m not even sure Howard will vote for himself after the past week of nonsense and shame. ALP to win in a thumping great walloping.
Of course the SMH are going to say party insiders say their poll is closer. They don’t want to seem silly straight off the bat.
Furthermore, we had someone on here stating the other night that Lib internal polling had the 2PP at just under 52% and 5 seats in it either way, but leaning more to the Libs. It seems at least possible that was legit.
This victory is just going to be all the sweeter due to the pain and agony suffered over the last few weeks due to these polls. Todays polls have caused torment which will be washed away in tears of relief at about 8.30 tomorrow night when Antony says the immortal words “I’m calling this election for Labor” and Kerry adds “Kevin Rudd will be the next Prime Minister of Australia”.
Ok, I’ll mock you Luke!
Yes, the newpoll has gone insane because of pollbludger comments.
a lot is two words
Was away for a while.
Last I heard was Glen predicting a 50/50 Newspoll and definite Coalition victory. Has this eventuated or was this just HUBRIS???
Looks like my prediction of 82 seats to the ALP is still alive, with Libs making a gain in Cowan. A comfortable enough majority to make the Chief Whip’s job bearable.
One way or another, SOMEONE, be it Galaxy/NewsPoll (close win), Mumble/Possum/Morgan/Jackman/all bookmakers (crushing win) or Nielsen (annihilation) is going to be enjoying a facio-cranial omelette on Sunday! Not that the bookmakers would care; they’ll handle the ruin of their reputation as election predictors by crying all the way to the bank.
Or maybe EVERYONE will be a fool, if the Unthinkable happens. I’ll be in Broome this time tomorrow afternoon so if it does happen I’ll just keep on flying north, instead of returning to Perth
If anyone thinks the last 11.5 years was bad, then contemplate vindicated/vengeful Howard, who values loyalty and unity above all else. But not too long, lest you want to get into a warm bath with a sharp razor.
Julie,
The entire Lib Party have been taken over by raving right-wing nutters…even Tip Costello has gone Hillsong on us.
So you might as well take the most union-friendly of the bunch.
Warringbah,
fair enough, was just curious. I am a political science academic and have only started reading this site recently and i just found it fascinating how many times he gets mentioned, that’s all
234,
“It was never going to be 56-44. Queensland and western Sydney are the key.”
They lost western Sydney with the antics in Lindsay this week (if they ever had it it the first place). Probably lots of other seats too when voters heard about that stunt.
i warned you. we will not see a labor government in this country for 20 years. john howard IS australia. he is australia’s just deserts. sad greedy little people. sad little backwater of a country.
Well, personally, I’m not worried. Labor will win.
If Newspoll’s right, by a few seats. If Neilsen’s right, by landslide.
I’m punting for the landslide myself, particularly after the Kelly Gang’s Lindsay capers earlier this week.
That’s gonna piss-off a whole lot of small “ls” in places like North Sydeny, Higgins and Ryan. So, the swing will go well beyond the marginals. WorkChoices will do the rest.
Say no more:
Bookie says Labor favoured to win easily – November 23, 2007 – 5:00PM – The Age
http://www.theage.com.au/news/National/Bookie-says-Labor-favoured-to-win-easily/2007/11/23/1195753295758.html
10PSE @ 244
Because Poss has ensured we don’t have a nervous break down every time many of us see the bogus polls that we have experienced this afternoon.
For me personally tomorrow is an enormous day for my future, the future of my kids and an end to the most disastrous page in this countries history since the Cook stuck the flag in.
Poss has done the hard yards to provide us the comfort that it all ends in 24 hours..or thereabouts.
And the SMH ACN Poll, may be proven correct and the lib internal polling is pure bullsh@t.
Neilbris – exactly. I never thought the LNP couldn’t come back (though think it very unlikely) but they would have had to have a great last week. They have not. Even that Sunday Tel woman on Sunrise this morning gave the week to Labor!
Can someone confirm for me the the newspoll on eleciton day last time was 50-50?
muk0le 264 give Howard some respect. He is a poor old bugger refusing to retire. It is sad to see an old man so deluded and being thrown on the scrap heap of history…
Francis – love the hockey character here
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H1lYCbjzQ4I
Brilliantly done as you say
Coalition into 3.85 on CanBet, Labor 1.29
Just to confirm- since we all hang on the words of the pollsters
If the Libs win tomorrow- all pollsters were wrong.
Of course sondeo. You can’t really take seriously anyone that comes to this site with internal polling. What would be the point of posting it on here?
Love this from Howard:
Mr Howard told The Daily Telegraph the Galaxy poll was “very interesting” and said: “I always said we could win.”
He said the people of western Sydney who delivered him victory in the 1996 election had made him believe victory could be his once more.
He really thinks western Sydney is going to deliver him the victory this time? Really?? Guess that’s why he rushed up to Cairns.
No. He deserves everything that’s coming to him.
Julie @ 250.
You didn’t drop the monarchy – you just replaced it with an elected one. As for ditching Rudd because of what you read in the GG….Good grief.
Possum is attempting to do what a quality MSM should do, instead of prognosticating on the precise political reason for a movement in a poll which is statistically expected anyway due to sampling error (e.g a 2% movement in Newspoll was due to Howard’s NT intervention). I think that if Possum’s analysis is vindicated by the election results (on Crikey he has forecast the 2PP to two decimal places and also a number of seats based on a non-uniform swing) he will become quite well known in the MSM (he is already well known online).
just a reminder that #pollbludger is active on austnet on irc. maybe it will save william a few $$ if everyone gets on and stops f5-ing as much
Ashley – of course the money is going to come for the LNP at this time. At $4.25 etc it’s just a reaction to the newspoll. So hardly “smart money”.
just what we need to kick the small undecided out of complacency. it will still be a landslide – Tories Gooooooooorn
IASBet, Sportingbet and Portlandbet all have L/NP on $3.85. But all that means is that there’s less attraction for me to burn spare cash plonking it down there.
276 spoken like a true prodigy – i was just trying to lift the spirits of poor old muk0le
BBDK 273 – exactly.
All of them.
All year.
Without exception.
Even up till the day before the election.
Elected Monarchy?
Now there’s an oxymoron.
Because as we all know there’s been absolutely no hubris from any conservatives on any other web sites. God chose to only punish the Lefties on this site.
Mark Riley on 7 news is going to release some “very interesting” internal party polling.
“Elected Monarchy”. That might be one of the planks of an Opportunity Society’s Aspirational Nationalism.
Listening to ABC PM show now it is completely undermining Howard’s claim that the peeps at the shops are giving him the love.
He will twist, distort and lie with chutzpah til the bitter end.
JHIAC
About as sad as seeing a rat being taken out with a piece of four by two
Can only be Lib polling showing they are coming back – Labor would have no interest in releasing its own polling, whether to show widening or tightening
why would they bother releasing the internal polling at this stage?
Today couldn’t have gone better for Rudd – any ALP waverers will be back on deck. No one in punterland will be taking the result for granted now.
Unlike me. An ALP victory is assured.
53.5 tomorrow. 85 seats.
Darn, above – I hear your fears (about Howard outspending Rudd) but note for example yesterdays Herald Sun. Most read paper in the country.
it had a promises breakdown for average two child family which had ALP =19k better off; LNP= 13k better off.
What Ashley? interesting internal polling that shows the public have observed the performance of the LNP this week and thought, yep, that’s the team for me?
Maxine at $2.10 with portland bet….thats the shortest i’ve seen. No wobbles there from the girl. You lads need to stay strong too.
If I told all the ALP supporters 12 months ago that on poll eve 2007 the ALP would have 2 polls saying 52/48 and another 2 saying 55/45 & 57/43 you would all be ecstatic. Instead there is just jaded dejection. Dare I suggest that some perspective might not go astray…?
Newspoll on election day in 2004 was 50:50
http://www.newspoll.com.au/image_uploads/cgi-lib.2613.1.1025_Final_Poll.pdf
O’Shannasy said this morning (just checked the recording) that Newspoll had changed their weighting to give more “weight” to regions in their polling.
So in the last week they change the sampling method? It may be the correct thing to do but it expains the change.
She was at $2 this morning.
261 L,
Again, while I would never vote for any of the pollies on that side of the aisle, I did remember too since I made the first post, that Turnbull of course is a Republican too. So he would be fine in my book too. Any Coalition pollie who was a Republican would pass muster in my book.
Has all four poling companies ever got the winning party result wrong in the same election before?
Guess they want to try and get any sort of momentum LTEP…
Sounds kind of wishful at this late stage.
ND, but Howard is like a creature from a horror movie that just refuses to be slayed…eg terminator 2 grabbing onto the back of the car
As other wise and sagacious people on this blog have noted these polls will perk up the desperate tory hordes just enough that they will feel even more keenly the hot poker up their arse on Sat night..
Victoria election ‘99 and Britain in ‘92 come to mind
Grog – yes Newspoll called the last election at 50/50. Splashed in big letters across the face of the GG it made sure they sold lots of papers – as was intended. Why own a pollster if they don’t assist with circulation?!
Ruawake – Im not at all surprised to hear that.
Interesting internal polling at this late stage – i could imagine perhaps 53-47 in bennelong? That would be interesting. I wonder if howard has a speech written for handing over to a victorious costello on election night.
Maybe one day it will be dug up, like the ‘in the event of a moon disaster’
It was just in the 7 news teaser on commercial radio.
I don’t think the liberal party f#$k ups this week are really going to bother a lot of the voters that actually count. I think the “slogan” line is beginning to bite. Even as a strong Labor supporter I cringe every time I hear ‘education revolution’ and ‘plan for the future’. It sounds so much better when they just list all the different things they are planning to do. People are suspicious of too much spin.
I would rather like to see the primaries from Newspoll. They had the ALP on 47% primaries when they put out that 53/47 a fortnight ago. If the polls have tightened 1 point on 2PP since then it is possible the Newspoll primary has the ALP on 45/46%, which is still historically high. Primary votes are also more reliable because they don’t depend on the pollseters arbitrary statistical modelling…
At this stage any money comming in on the LNP is a reaction to the newspoll – but is there much movement on individual seats?
Rodents spread disease time to exterminate, exterminate, exterminate.
Julie (at the risk of carrying on a personal conversation over PollBludger)…
Republics are all very well, but health care (particularly in Aboriginal areas), equitable education, fairness in the workplace, better refugee treatment, less denigration of the minorities among us all rate higher in my book.
Can’t see wealthy lawyers from Wentworth doing too much about a lot of those.
These late close polls may actually reflect (as well as MOE issues and method problems) that a few voters are saying “OK, Rudd’s clearly won, we want Howard gone, but we want to keep our sitting member, so we’ll vote Liberal now”.
If there is that element then the perception that it’s genuinely close will probably do Rudd no real harm at all.
Why is it considered bad form for Labor to express confidence, yet when the rodent says he can win, no one bats an eyelid?
Unless Lizzy falls under a bus in the next 3 years we aint becoming a Republic…..when she karks it we will!
I will be with you Ophup, my wife is adamant that a Howard win means we sell up and leave. She really hates him. Haha.
True we have 4 polls. You would have to follow the polls that were consistent with what has gone before. You can only accept Newspoll suddenly dipping to 52 in a week if you can find a specific cause. All the causes have been negative. AND Morgan’s ‘Reactor’ found that the LNP scare ads fairly ineffective.
No, large groups do not change in a short space of time with no significant reason.
The last time we had a large shift of voters was when Rudd took over. The undecideds break 2/1 in favour of the trend on average and, broke about 59/41 to Beazely in 2001 [and that was the 9/11 election!].
You wont get big numbers suddenly going to Howard unless you have a major attention catching event. The only events he has had have been negative ones and consistent negative news – Rudd has been getting positive news.
Thus you would most certainly have to discard the Newspoll and go with the Morgan and Nielsen indication that not much has changed.
Yes, if Labor’s primary is on 45 or 46 it is all over.
316, because the Rodent is the incumbent, and is behind in the polls
Possum is already well respected outside of blogs. I saw his analysis of interest rates vs Labor vote referred to in an Access Communications report of the election. This report in an independent report for multinationals etc to allow them to determine how the election and policies will affect them. He is big time.
Re 277,
Neilbris Says:
He will still get my vote. I am in a safe Labor seat. Matter of fact, in my polling booth, Latham got 1324 at the last election and the greens got 25. I am preferencing Labor.
There are those issues, different for each of us, that we must take a stand on and the Republic is one for me. Some people don’t make up their mind till the last minute, some don’t care, some like me care very deeply and are making their decisions based upon the governments record or the pollies themselves (”Do I like this man?” …..). I make my decision upon the issues that are important to me. Mind you, > 90% of the time, that coincides with Labor issues. When it doesn’t, then the Greens will get my vote parked there and Labor will get my preferences. My vote still goes to Labor anyways and I have made a moral choice in my own mind. Isn’t that what most of us voters who are lefties do anyways?
I would not be too concerned about the slogan jibe – name a major pollie who does not talk in soundbites?
The ‘working families’ line is driving me nuts. There should be a royal commission investigating its usage if the labor party lose. Heads should roll
Rx – because no one really believes him so its taken as just trying to rally the troops.
321, was Possum credited with it? Did Access use his Possum psuedonym?
By the way, in the UK in 1992 Labour only ever had a small lead, which the last few polls showed had changed to a lead to Major in the days before the election.
I need a Tabitha moment.
Before the election:
Rodent
Rudd
After the election:
Rodent
Rudd
Are you serious??? Wtf?
LOTS of money flying around online
CENTREBET: ALP $1.27 : L/NP $3.80
As a little distraction I thought I would show the state-by-state
changes in enrolments, compared to 2004:
ACT +4.9%
NSW +6.0%
NT +4.4%
Qld +5.5%
SA +2.3%
Tas +2.0%
Vic +4.0%
WA +5.3%
National +4.9%
So, demographic destiny says we should choose Rudd/Swan, whose
average population increase is greater than Howard/Costello! If you
throw in Foreign Ministers the choice becomes even more stark.
314 L,
No reason we can’t do both. Keating would have. You guys turfed him out and didn’t give him a chance to show you. He was heading that direction. I couldn’t vote in 1996.
It was reading about O’Shannasy’s tinkering with his weightings that made me want to see the primaries…. dare I suggest the reason News are hiding the primaries is because they still show a fairly big (eleciton winning) lead to Labor?
… assuming people want a distraction at the moment. Might help a few here …
Ruawake at 299 – what program did Martin O say that on?
326 Warringah- Yes they referred to him as Possum. I cant remember exactly what they said but it was something like the psephological pseudonymous Possum. And by the way, you can kill those horrible monsters. It’s called a Head Shot!
Mumble has insider info on the primaries – 44-43-7 (Greens)
I cant imagine what would have caused a collapse in Labor’s primary like that
If the polls are so close, why was JWH in Leichhardt today?
Don’t the libs hold that seat by a fair margin?
Why is he going through Qld today?
I’m confident now, but it is not a certainty anymore.
I still think Labor could win 90 seats, if it is around 54/46
14 Hours 19 minutes till polls open…..
Changing the weightings, that’s what
#275
Western Sydney is not that important to the Government, Queensland is. The Liberals only have Macarthur and maybe Greenway and Hughes (if they can be counted as part of Western Sydney) to defend there (but they are on comfortable Liberal margins). They lost Parramatta last time and written off retaining Lindsay.
On the other hand Queensland has a lot of seats that need to be defended, in spite of their big margins, because of Rudd Factor.
In other words this particular poll cannot be compared with its previous polls and we know how accurate it is. Why change at the last second?
Wouldn’t want them to be my accountants!
Tinkering with their weightings????
That would probably mean not so much the 2PP but how they come at the primary – i.e give weight to marginals over safe seats or some such nonsense. SOunds like hocus pocus.
Thanks God the election isn’t actually decided by the polls.
But it does show how hardit is to win from opposition (in a mental sense)
If the LNP were 52-48, it would hardly rate.
ALP is 52-48, and it’s all run for the hills!!!
It was on ABC Local Radio QLD.
But I don’t think he used the word “weight” he said they increased the sample taken in rural / regional areas to ensure a better representation of voters from that sector.
#304 like Rasputin
ruawake writes “O’Shannasy said this morning (just checked the recording) that Newspoll had changed their weighting to give more “weight” to regions in their polling.
So in the last week they change the sampling method? ”
If this is, indeed, the case then any change is almost certainly simply due to an increase in the Nat vote, rather than improvement in the Libs vote. As all but 2 of the most 30 marginal coalition seats are currently held by the Libs (Cowper and Page are the two exception). In other words, it is irrelevant to the result.
There have been recent occasions when a “high” coalition Newspoll has actually involved an INCREASE in the Nat vote, but a DECREASE in the Lib primary.
If we are looking at a change in the Country / City balance here then I suspect we are really seeing another manifestation of “no change” 54-55% lab / 45-46% Lib line.
Labor would still win comfortably on a 44 primary. It’s the 42.5 from Galaxy which is a massive collapse.
I can believe 44, not such a crazy change.
just saw a add on ten
“you thought u only had 2 choices?”
“The empire strikes back!!”
Gee i hope the empire (rodent) isnt starting to fight back
Possum
It was the interview with Madonna King on ABC 612 Radio Brissy.
The BIG problem with the Galaxy is that Family First have gone from Less than One Percent to 2.5 percent in the space of 16 days, and it has occurred at the expense of the Labor primary.
If the Labor primary drops that much in such a short period you’d expect some of it to go to the Greens. But to have it go to Family First seem suspicious.
I’m happy to accept the punters’ and bookies’ tips:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/bookies-tip-labor-win/2007/11/23/1195753272917.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap2
Weight of money 75% to Labor. Lasseter:
“We’re betting on 136 seats. Now the other 14 we’ve predicted as foregone conclusions and didn’t bother with them.
“Looking at those 136 seats plus the 14 and who is favoured and how it breaks down, we have 80 to Labor, 65 to the Coalition and the two independents stay where they are. But there’s still three in which we are offering $1.85 for a Labor win and the same for a Coalition win, making them currently equal favourites in those seats.
“The problem is that even when you add up those seats, you can’t come up with a Howard win.
“So what we’re desperately looking for is for some of those Labor candidates who have been backed, to not win. But, historically, the punters are normally on the mark.”
Simon Jackman now has expected seat count 81.98 Labor.
I’d be happy with a slim majority to Labor, but I’m sticking with 87 seats prediction. Let’s all relax. Vote early. Vote legally.
Julie,
I certainly voted for PJK…and would again if I’d ever been given the chance
Australia’s first true leader of the post-war period
When exactly will betting end? 6 PM eastern daylight saving time? i.e. once the votes start being counted?
“But I don’t think he used the word “weight” he said they increased the sample taken in rural / regional areas to ensure a better representation of voters from that sector.”
Whatever they changed it means the current poll is not usefull in making comparisons. I think what is being concealed here is an extra point on Libs and an extra point on Nats.
351 L,
GET Howard out at any cost
which is why we will get Rudd tomorrow, but OMG what I would give to have a PJK clone …… 
I narrowly missed out on a chance to meet him Tuesday of this week too. He was going to do a luncheon speech engagement for Mike Bailey in North Sydney and I was all fixed up to attend. It was cancelled at the last minute with no explanation given.
I know this may sound crazy but I believe it is possible that Labor could possibly win, even when taking into consideration the terrible polls just released. But it is of course only a tiny chance…LOL
Does anybody know when the betting markets close, or will they run all day tomorrow?
Sorry “weight” was my term – but they have changed the sample.
I agree. It may be more accurate, but it makes it hard to make fair comparisons against previous Newspolls.
I don’t understand why you would change your methodology in the final poll!?
Increase your sample to reduce the margin of error sure, that makes sense, but why would you change the ratio of people that you poll across demographics, or even across different states?
We find out if it was a good decision on Newspoll’s part tomorrow.
I think it will be too low. I think Labor will get 53.5 2pp, and 85 seats.
356,
I think I heard earlier this week that they stop accepting bets at 7am but I don’t remember for sure. Can someone confirm this?
Unfortunately I’m getting a sinking feeling again -just like I did the day before Latham’s defeat three years ago. I was confident of a Labor win previously but I now think it will go down to the wire -I think Labor will either just win or just fall short.
@Julie, cheers for that…it would make sense to close them early in the day. Will be interesting to see what happens overnight, I reckon the LNP will close on about $3.20 or so.
Relax, people, relax. Remember, quantitive polls are not predictive tools, they are indicative ones.
82 – 84 seats to the ALP by 11pm tomorrow night. A tick over 53% TPP.
But I do confess to a secret longing for Bennelong to fall….
ShowsON, you speak the truth. ALP losing votes to Family First? Yep, and Guy Sebastian will take over as lead singer of AC-DC next year as well…
My guess is 6 PM eastern daylight saving time.
After that time votes start being counted, and results come in which makes it easier for punters to judge the actual outcome.
I honestly believe that any referral to “plunges” now on the betting markets can be disregarded. Any money back to the L/NP will be ill informed cash being thrown around based upon Galaxy and Newspoll.
I’m pretty confident that there is enough expertise on Poll Bludger, albiet strongly left, but educated nonetheless, to make an educated assessment on the mood of the electorate.
EXACTLY what you said!
This bit of doubt thrown into the mix will make Labors comfortable win even sweeter
Thanks Rua
http://www.theage.com.au/news/National/Leaflets-stuffed-PMs-campaign–Beattie/2007/11/23/1195753297511.html
Betting closes tomorrow at 8am AEST on portland (basically they close when the ballot boxes open).
Simon Jackman is in the country and was just on ABC radio national. He was being sensible, listing stat MoE type reasons as to why ACN could be so divergent when compared to Galaxy & Newspoll. I was prepared to dismiss Galaxy but Newspoll makes me a little more uneasy. Not about Labor winning, because I still firmly believe that’s going to happen – people talking up a Coalition victory on 48% of the 2PP are drawing pretty long bows imho – but my prediction of 95 seats to the ALP is looking somewhat more ambitious than I thought it would be. We’ll all know in 26 or 7 hours from now.
I’m not sure what they mean by changing the weight of regions unless they mean polling more in the regions?
Changing your sampling technique the last poll of the election is weird really and, you cannot be sure of the veracity of your results until it is tested [tomorrow lol].
It doesn’t mean it is more accurate at all but may explain why they have shifted so suddenly and probably picked up a higher percentage of lib/nat voters? It is hard to know what the poll indicates. It is like a brand new pollster coming in with their very first poll.
All the more reason to look to the Morgan and Nielsen. Anyway will know how much Rudd wins be soon enough.
Primaries:
ACN 49+ / 39- (??)
Galaxy 42.5 / 42.5
Morgan 46.5 / 40
Newspoll 44 / 43 (??)
The galaxy result is weird. A LNP primary vote of 42.5 should see Labor on at least 44.
From these results you’d have to say that Galaxy has underestimated the Labor primary, which could be anything from 44 upwards. That’s a Labor win.
Get a grip, folks. No need to panic. First – Galaxy has consistently been providing the lowest estimates of Labor support. Second, as Possum Comitatus hints in an update to his latest post, Newspoll has a strange house effect when the ‘others’ vote hits 13 which results in the estimated preference flow being absurdly low for Labor – applying his figures would suggest that without this house effect you would get 53-47 tpp from the likely primaries. That is within error margin (2%) of 55-45. Newspoll at 57-43 is within its error margin of 55-45 as well. And don’t forget that Nielsen ran two polls (one online) that both got 57-43. Labor will win tomorrow with a post-WWII record vote (record for Labor, that is) in the vicinity of 55%. I’m still confident of over 90 seats. Less than 90 seats would be more of a surprise than cracking 100.
Remain calm. Proceed to your polling places and perform your civic duty.
Well, I just slapped $100 on the ALP. Easiest $28 I ever made.
Bring it. Bored now. Lets get voting Rodent out.
Sorry, that should be “Nielsen at 57-43″ in the midst of my comment #374.
Leftye:
where can you still get 1.28?
L ?
Keating Aus first true leader since the post war periond
Which war?
Was it involving shots fired in the locker ?
Ben Chifley seemed a good man for his times I would say.
ACN to be closet to the mark tomorrow and today.
Labour 56 TPP 95 seats
In previous elections, if you look through the final polls, it is pretty common for some of the pollsters to get the primary vote of one party correct, but screw up the other party. Don’t have the figures here but I think ShowsOn posted them yesterday.
Another thing that people seem to have overlooked is that Neilsen effectively had two polls, both of which had exactly the same 2pp result. So there have actually been 5 polls in the past 24 hours, 3 of which point to a landslide ALP win.
Asanque @ 377,
Centrebet at the moment.
Bahahaha. Oh my, so much angst and worry. I hope some of you are channelling this nervous energy actually campaigning for your chosen party/independent tomorrow!
ShowsOn – I always respect people who quote me!
Need to identify those key indicative seats that are going to tell us the directional result:
• ALP have 11 seats in the bag (Kingston, Bonner, Wakefield, Makin, Braddon, Paramatta, Hasluck, Bass, Lindsay, Moreton and Eden-Monaro)
• VIC: any seat that moves is a sign of a big ALP swing (Deakin, McMillan, Corangamite, La Trobe, Gippsland, McEwan) – more than 3/6 here should indicate a rout?
• QLD: Blair & Herbert should fall if ALP have any chance. It’s the 8+%’ers that are probably the best indicator of a landslide (Flynn, Forde, Leichardt, Longman, Petrie, Ryan)
• SA: The 3 SA potential seats (Boothby, Sturt, Lilley) probably an indicator of rout vs modest result?
• WA: Canning and Swan are HUGE if they swing Lib. Need to watch Canning & Stirling as well. Any net gain to Libs will be a big bump in the road to overcome.
• NSW: along with Qld is the key…
- Dobell and Page, I think, need to move to ALP or else they’re in big trouble
- Cowper, Gilmore, Paterson, Robertson are big determinants of comfort levels (if any)
- Wentworth & Bennelong – for obvious reasons. If Libs hang on to both, then worried about broader implications in NSW
- Nth Sydney – this should be close unless all the polls are wrong
Some polling would have other safer seats in play, but if they move then this isn’t going to be close at all?
Take the 11 as given (ALP at 71)? Of the others nominated:
• 8 Qld seats in play (unless we’re talking landslide elsewhere) – less than 3 is bad for ALP
• 3 SA seats – need at least 1. {Along with Qld should be enough}
• NSW seats (9 nominated) – less than 4 would be a disappointment. Not needed unless Libs gain in WA, or ALP can’t pull any of the seats in Qld
• Vic seats (6) – anything here is a bonus, might be needed to offset WA/Qld as above
• WA (2 ALP, 2 Lib) – net zero movement will be acceptable. Worst case +1 to Libs. Shouldn’t matter – if they end up mattering, then I think its good for JWH
10 of 28 possible net gain gets them >80, 5 enough to form govt. They have to win 5. All 28 = 99 seats for ALP!!!
NSW/Qld exit polling will probably tell us by 7pm if it’s a wipeout or a cliffhanger. If the latter, its going to be a long night!!
lefty e at 375. you should have waited. the way the market is going the alp will be over 1.50 later this evening
I agree that the Newspoll and Galaxy results seem off to me. Although AC Nielsen’s result overstates the ALP’s position slightly, the other two seem totally counterintuitive.
The government is dead. The smell of death is in the air across the country, and I expect my initial prediction of 85-63-2 is slightly under what is probably going to happen.
ShowsOn says:
I don’t understand why you would change your methodology in the final poll!?
The only reason that I can think of is to get a “headline” figure that looks “tighter”, ShowsOn. Votes in the “Nat” seats in regional areas, for the most part are irrelevant in this election. All but Page and Cowper of the Coalition’s 30 most marginal seats are held by the Libs.
It is really VERY, VERY cheeky of Newspoll and means that any talk about “narrowing” should be taken with a grain of salt. One might almost think they were trying to create a ‘bandwagon” effect. Just about as dirty as the Kelly gang really.
I’ll stick with the 54-55% ALP 45-46% figure, thank you very much.
Sorry – in WA meant Cowan and Swan
The polled 2614 on 23 November????? Is that doable?
Sorry, that should have ben “I’ll stick with the 54-55% ALP 45-46% Coalition figure, thank you very much.”
I’ve already voted…does that mean I can start drinking? ooohh, could be a big weekend!
I fear it this will be one motion that will need endorsement, for the wife…she already knows it’s going to be an ugly day in downtown Nadi!
I know history doesn’t necessarily give you an indication as to what may happen tomorrow but it is interesting to note that at this stage of the election campaign polling conducted by Newspoll and ACN in the 2004 and 1998 campaigns, ACN was closer to the TPP by a long way.
Labor figures first – 1998 election: TPP was 51 -49. NP – 53 -47, ACN – 50 -50.
2004 election: TPP was 47 -53. NP – 50 -50, ACN – 46 -54.
I think there is something in that for all of us, don’t you?
K Jin @ 378 ,
Chifley was good, but not great. The bank nationalisation stuff saw to that in my view. For the most part he merely administrated an existing agenda, albeit extremely well.
Hawke could have and should have been great, but his best years, the most forceful and articulate years, came before his ascent to the Lodge. Mind you, he pissed 90% of the time in those days, so it would have been a pretty drunked reign.
Whitlam reformed the ALP and made it electable, and then nearly made it unelectable again. Fraser was a moneyed, third-rate toff, Holt, Gorton and McMahon all risible (Gorton slightly less so at times) and Menzies a patrician joke who aspired to statesmanship but hardly acheived mediocrity.
That leaves Keating… 5 years of true leadership that the country didn’t deserve and couldn’t appreciate.
Re #384
Expat Follower, you might want to include Solomon in the NT as a likely gain for Labor.
Oakes on naarn-nooz:
Poll confusion reigns
He said last night before today’s polls were release that ’senior liberals had given up’.
They have history doing this, last election it was a 0.5 shift making the final poll 50/50.
But wouldn’t they get more credit for being ACCURATE rather than showing a close result?
Anyone catch 7 news? What about the internal polling?
Shcrift at 394 – you are absolutely right, forgot all about poor NT!
Sporting bet, it was. Might have been 1.27 actually.
OK it is all starting to make sense. Newspoll have made a change in the way they sample and we have this comment at possums site:
Which also will skew the overall result. The WA result is obviously not right but it will also certainly help to muck up this particular poll.
They might have to do another one!
I still think Labor will win, but as I have been saying for months now poor candidate selection (the LabCest) is a big time issue in Labor. How sad will some of the Labor people on this site be if it costs you the election in a squeaker.
Does anybody think in a close election there will be a personal vote for the Labor candidate in:
Robertson
Dobell
Deakin
Hasluck
Braddon ?
Also not rebutting a negative campaign always costs. Not rebutting the union scare campaign has had a cost.
If it is a loss how soon after Saturday will Gartrell walk the plank?
Grog @ 312…
Some seat movement
http://betelection.com/elections/
If we lose, Gatrell resigns Sunday.
Much as my personal opinion of her is low, there might be something of a personal vote for Sharryn Jackson in Hasluck. Her recognition is extremely high there.
Are they trying to halt a masacre?
Just saw both the PM and Krudd on the news. Mr Howard was energetic, fresh, and confident. Krudd looked flat, pale, and tired. There was also something wrong with his left eye, something I’ve noticed on previous occasions when he’s been under pressure.
A telltale sign. Your words may deceive, Krudd, but your body’s giving you away.
OK it is all starting to make sense. Newspoll have made a change in the way they sample and we have this comment at possums site:
“A little birdy told me: Newspoll surveyed 397 voters in WA and recorded primary votes of 50% for Coalition and 37% ALP – a 6% turnaround. TPP is 56-44.”
Which also will skew the overall result. The WA result is obviously not right but it will also certainly help to muck up this particular poll.
They might have to do another one!
This means Howard is going to look energetic in retirement.
What was the internal polling on channel 7 ? Please.
ACN was apparently 48 – 40 on primaries… (I assume this has been posted previously, but I missed it).
The Doors of Perception 57-43
The Jaws of Deception 52-48
Kina, that does help explain things. Means its about 53-47 back here. Enough to cover a coupla WA losses if it comes to that!
Easy money to be made on the ALP punters – get in while you can!
Sportingbet has Maxine closing from $2.20 to $2.10.
Rodnet out from $1.58 to $1.65
Shortest odds ever for Maxine, so there’s a narrowing alright, but not the type the squatter at K House would like to see.
I think we can safely discount AC Nielsen (and independents like Dave from Albury being sampled). The Goldstein factor is also a non-starter too.
9 News said that for Jews in Wentworth like the candidate himself, Newhouse, they can not vote tommorrow as Saturday is their Sabbath. Wentworth has a large Jewish population. They will have voted pre-poll and postal votes. That means if Wentworth comes down to the wire, that we will NOT know the result on Saturday night. It might take several days for those other votes to be counted.
Agree, great chance to get on before the price bubble bursts!!
steven Kaye,
About this time tomorrow that will be ‘Prime Minister Elect KRudd’ to you.
labor back out to 1.30 at canbet
Paul K,
Do you agree with my sentiments in 401?
Heard on Nine News, Morgan is showing Labor lead of 9 points. By my calculations that’d be 55.5-45.5.
What so you do now? Average them all out?
Never mind folks, only one more day of anxiety. Comfy win for Labor.
I had 90 in the PB sweep. I think it may come in more, but I’ll stick by it.
# 403, ICWFFZ
Stop that silly talk, and repeat after me:
Nantucket sleigh ride, the Rodent is getting a right royal Nantucket sleigh ride
L says:
“I certainly voted for PJK…and would again if I’d ever been given the chance
Australia’s first true leader of the post-war period”
I guess you weren’t around in the late 60’s early 70’s, L.
I posted the following on Andrew Bolt’s blog today, after he had yet another gratuitous go at Gough:
“Andrew, I’m intrigued by the special vitriol that you often save for Whitlam.
You were just 13 when Whitlam came to power and had just turned 16 when he left. You didn’t experience the same mindblowing issues of facing conscription to fight in what most of us saw as an unjust war; of a declining, elitist, “two tier” education system in which the wealthy regarded a university education as a right but which most, even in the “middle class”, saw as something beyond their means even when it was well within their abilities ( it is worth remembering that it was Whitlam who introduced needs based funding for private schools – before that they essentially received nothing); of a health system that denied access to many of those who needed it most, and so forth.
You also ignore the huge task economically that Whitlam faced after years of structural neglect by Menzies and his followers.
It was Whitlam who began the process of giving Australia a place in the modern international economic world. It was Whitlam, for example, who began the process of breaking down the massive tariff barriers that Australia lived behind at that time. He did so, unfortunately, at a time when international commodity prices collapsed and the 1973 oil crisis reared its head, which made the transition much harder than it would otherwise have been, but the dangers for Australia in NOT making these changes were already beginning to rear their head during the last decade of the previous conservative government.
Whitlam did try to do too much too quickly, but the need was very pressing in many, many areas. Without the reforms which he introduced who knows when, or whether, Australia would have begun to take a meaningful place as a modern independent nation in the modern world?
Yes, Keating was underestimated by many, but Whitlam’s victory in ‘72 was far, far more important to Australia being what it is today than most people realise.
Cheers
Rod
ALP @ $1.25 on Sportsbet..interestingly McKew is solid at $2.00
If Labor loses, it will be because:
1) Labor/Union connection is seen as out-of-date
2) People like to blood leaders, they like Rudd but want to be sure, ie 2010
3) Economy is just too strong
4) People dont trust Labor with the economy
Centrebet 128 370, Sportingbet 1.27 3.85, Portlandbet 128 3.72
If Newspoll have changed their polling methodology then that is very suspect. It means that a comparison with earlier Newspolls is useless. Are they professionals or not, surely a change in their last polls methodology is weird.
Lucky you don’t do maths as a job then!
I think they must have been referring to the 54.5-45.5 Morgan phone poll from earlier today.
Goddammit…. absolute work free zone around here again today. Thank god this is all over after tomorrow cause I am getting absolutely f$%king nothing done!!
Everyone calm down, the green vote has gone up; now let me look who are the greens preferencing.
To be honest I am thinking of voting 1 greens so they get the $2.xx dollars and preferencing labor so we get a decent government.
#406 [Krudd looked flat, pale, and tired.] LOL!
Steven, maybe it’s that shine on the glass jaw you fellers have kept rabbiting on about.
In that case I won’t vote for him. I hear he shakes hands like a girl too.
Seems to me AC Nielsen might actually be getting close even with moe. Supported by Morgan and we know the Newspoll is a damaged poll due to bad sampling in WA [and possibly elsewhere].
Is this an attempt to stop a masacre – has it really blown out to 54++?
I think we can safely ditch the latest Newspoll and look to their previous ones.
Time to go.
Zai4 Jian4 peng you
Ashley
I’m with you – this election is killing productivity ’round here.
Possum, as always, has light to cast:
The problem when Newspoll gets the number 13 for the minors is that they end up distributing preferences 53.8% rather than 61.x% (which is their 2004 prefs distribution target) to the ALP regardless of the size of the Greens vote. As a result, rounding issues compound realistic preference flows from the Greens to give an underestimate of the ALP TPP vote. That happened when Newspoll had the ALP at 53 a few weeks ago, before the rate rise and I said watch it bounce back next poll – which it did. That’s a house issue Newspoll has – they’re allergic to the number 13 in the minor party vote total.
….
UPDATE :
Mr Mumbles hears that the primaries are 44/43 to the Coalition with 7 Greens and 6 others.
7+6 = the dreaded 13.
Hang on, it ain that – Possum again
“Grooski, 13 isnt the problem this time as they’ve actually slightly overdone the prefs rather than underdone. It’s the pump up of the regional sample that looks to have changed the numbers. It will be interesting to see whether it plays out for them. I’m not of the mind that it will.” (Possum)
Possum was also predicting Higgins, Kooyong and Goldstein to fall.
Steven Kaye Says: “Just saw both the PM and Krudd on the news. Mr Howard was energetic, fresh, and confident. Krudd looked flat, pale, and tired. There was also something wrong with his left eye, something I’ve noticed on previous occasions when he’s been under pressure.”
I also just saw the Rodent and Rudd on the news. The Rat looked like a racist red-neck, mean-spirited and full of piss-n-wind. Rudd looked like a Prime Minister in the waiting, ready to lead this country out of the cesspool of ugliness the Liberals have slowly pushed us into.
So no one caught 7 news???
52 to ALP would be a swing of around 5%. In historical terms that is very signicant – a real rebuff to an incumbent. What is so strange about this year has been the inflated expectations Rudd has generated, and the absence of any analysis of the absurdity of a voting system that would not give the leading party a guaranteed, modest majority with such a relatively clear margin. Even the US electoral college does better than this.
I hear Channel 7 have “Exit polls” anyone know the deal with them and if anyone here will be “leaking” a few early ones our way tomorrow?
Rod @ 423
Thanks, you’ve just reminded me why many of us are here, and why we will be celebrating on Saturday night.
(Even if I have to get the truck out on Sunday for the big eviction!)
Lefty E – it’s a bit more complicated than that – this time they’ve actually overpreffed the ALP (that it was in the next update) a little by the looks of it after the rounding – the issue is the regional sampling pump. It makes sense now.
Business as usual.
Edward,
I still say Labor by a minimum of 80 seats regardless of what you think of their candidates. Both parties have their share of hopeless hacks, has beens and hangers on. I can tell you the Pollies I’ve met in person from both sides haven’t much excited me. God, if Dolly Downer can keep getting elected how much effect does a local candidate really have?
Laurie Oakes on Nine News said the Liberals were quite pessimistic and about ready to give up BEFORE THE NEWSPOLL CAME OUT. Right now, everyone is confused, according to Mr Oakes.
Possum was doing no such thing Eddie, I pointed out that the Newspoll data was suggesting those seats would fall a while back, using the state breakdowns, and the seat category swings.
Paul K,
The proverbial monkey can win in a safe seat. They do matter in tight finishes in marginals. Thats were it might bite Labor on the backside. Ironic if it does.
If I have a channel 7 exit poller ask me who I voted for I will tell them I voted for “David Koch is w*nker”
Possum
What do you mean by business as usual?
ABC Bias
tis morning i rang local radio (92.5) to complain about some old weezer on the phone trying to extort my coat or vote -wasnt sure these perverts always muffle their voices- anyway the studio said that i could expect more of them and hung up
WTF
ESJ #402
I really think Hasluck & Braddon are gone.
Lab cannot have less than 71 seats.
Another 29 realistic net gains possible (to take them to 100)
Qld/NSW comprise 17 of those 29. ALP need >5 and should get them there.
12 more thru Vic, WA, SA and NT (thanks Schf). 0 for 12 would be unlikely!
At most confident of times, thinking 13-15 of the 29 will deliver an ALP count of 85 or so, but low 80s the most likely bet?
Well, what’s their internal polling telling them? Hmmm…
We’re confused too, so for once everyone’s in the same boat.
Ch 9 has some show with Ray Martin and Tracey Grimshaw. She described him as “Mr Election”. Went right to the Newspoll result. We can vote live! From our lounge rooms. I hate this stuff and am terrified that the election will be decided by people who don’t care about the result.
Whoops! Thanks for that Ashley. Lousy maths, I agree. Still, I’ll take 54.5.
Hey Edward, while we’re both around. About The Senator and Droogs. It sounds like he might have started in the dens of Sussex Street and the NSW Right if Droogs were his thing. I assume he ‘turned’ (or ’saw the light’) at some later stage, a la Sir Les Patterson.
I always suspected that Howard’s role model was not Thatcher, Menzies or Reagan or Rove, but Richardson. Perhaps that explains a bit about The Senator’s machinations. I do hope the trail on the Kelly Gang doesn’t lead back to The senator’s desk.
Beautifully written, Expat Follower.
Even if you throw in Solomon to make it 12 ‘gimmes’, the fact is that Labor needs to win some (near-enough-to) 50/50s to form Government. The good news for them is that there’s somewhere around 20 line-ball contests, and they only must win 3 or 4. Massively optimistic Labor fans proclaim they’ll win all of them, plus some shock results on top. The Coalition supporters (or Labor pessimists) say that they could win only a couple, offset by a shock failure in one or two of the ’should wins’ and a loss or two in WA.
My 5c worth: to govern comfortably (i.e. do more than squeak home by one or two seats), Labor needs to win something(s) in Victoria.
Labor will not win anything in SA beyond the 3 in-the-bag seats.
The NSW and Qld seats, of those not in the ‘in-the-bag’ category, all have their problems. As far as Qld is concerned, you don’t want to be relying on getting 8%+ swings in particular seats to form government.
Cowper and Gilmore are science fiction as possible Labor gains IMO. Paterson and Robertson have better demographics to give hope as outlier ‘when the swing’s on, some big ones will go’ seats; but again, you shouldn’t have to rely on those unexpected big gains to form Gov’t.
Libs to hold Bennelong and Wentworth. 2PPs from 2004, adjusted for redistributions, can be misleading of themselves: Labor’s historic primary votes in both Bennelong and Wentworth have been pathetic, and the redistributions in both seats haven’t been extensive enough to change that in any profound way.
If you look at the betting markets, all 5 or so of the Victorian target seats are near enough to a toss of the coin. Chances that Howard could hang on in his own right might be infinitesimal; but the chances that he might force Katter and Windsor to jump one way or t’other, could depend on whether the old stager can win 5 coin tosses in a row.
Galaxy has been riding shotgun for GG Newspoll all year and in particular this ‘renovated’ Sham-I-am Newspoll. Wot CanberraBoy said above…& 55 all year same on Saturday.
Money now for Max…
Who is the person here who knows the Liberal staffer? Maybe he could give us an update later!
I think my prediction of 79 seats for Labor is looking good.
I think that is Voter Boy Over the Water who knowss the Lib staffer.
I hear serious claims here that newspoll have changed their methods for this latest poll- is there any evidence of that anywhere?
Expat
It seems to me:
WA will be 0 or +1 for Liberal
SA +3 Labor
Tas +2 Labor
NT +1 Labor
Vic +1 Labor (just because they should get 1 with a 5% swing)
They will need 5 in NSW and 5 in QLD
If the swing is on Labor will do it, if it is at the 6-7% level in QLD and 5% in NSW it will come down to the campaign in the actual seat. That’s how Labor may still lose.
I was debating whether to record Channel 9’s election special because I always record pre-election highlights/debates/specials and things like that. But I think my initial decision not to record was probably well-advised -it looks amateurish, gimmicky, cliched and predictable with nothing of value to be gained from watching. I actually have begun to like Ray Martin but I can’t stand Tracey Grimshaw. Think I’m going to give this one a miss
Edward,
Maybe Dolly was a bad example but I still think you exaggerate the influence of “unionists”, etc. If Labor loses it won’t be because their candidates weren’t up to scratch.
ESJ: Labor don’t have a mortgage on bad candidates.
Jackie Kelly, Dana Vaille and that dope down in La Trobe come to mind.
VoterBoy over the Water
Ring Your Mate!!!!! Please!!!!!
We need to hear it. So we can get some sleep tonight!
Door knocker – if they have made the regions a larger proportion of the sample, then the Coalition vote will be higher. That would explain what is actually a very very unusual poll result.
The question comes down to whether the rural and regional sample used is a higher proportion of the broader electorate sample than it used to be. If it is, the poll numbers are reporting nothing new – they’ve just been knocked down a bit as a result of the increased non-metro poll sample. That then begs the question of whether the previous newspolls were wrong because the composition of their sample was wrong.
Hopefully tomorrow they might explain it.
Their own polling must be very, very bad. Amazing how people keep trying to read so much into a single poll. It’s the trends ffs!!!
Kina, if you’re right about the WA result for this Newspoll, I calculate that the TPP for the rest of Australia is about 53.4/46.6:
LNP TPP = ((2614*48)-(397*56))/(2614-397) = 46.6
Still is far too close for comfort, though, and doesn’t make much sense in terms of ACN.
Of course, at this point it is worth remembering that 50% of the voting public are below average intelligence …
Just had fun on Antony’s calculator getting the ALP over the line with 76 seats and on 51.3% 2PP.
It’s quite easy to do. Even with SA, WA, Vic and QLD with ALP <50% 2PP I got the ALP a win (54.5% in NSW – Thanks Jackie Kelly)
Bring it on, is all I have to say.
The uncertainty will make it all that much sweeter if Labor do win.
The date of polling according to Oz was 23rd; sample size 2614. Can someone enlighten me please: is this doable?
Actually scratch that I played around some more – I got the ALP 2PP to 50.9%
Possum, I noted your comment on your own site, indicating that Newspoll has increased the number of rural/regional respondents for this poll. If so, wouldn’t this compromise the random sampling method? In effect, isn’t it similar to over-sampling marginal seats?
462 Howard Hater
The Senator generally tries to avoid the uncouth rough types of the angry tradesmen variety but he finds they go down a treat with the aspirationals.
Don, he prides himself on not believing in anything other than personal power.
Sorry, Kina. The Newspoll will also show a swing away from Labor in Queensland.
469- it was actually 20th/21th/22nd according to Shanahan
Just got back on line. Can anyone tell me if Possum has given any kind of a summary of what he believes the latest poll results are telling us.
If not – Possum, any chance you could do that please? We lesser mortals always appreciate a bit of professional help in interpreting these things.
Either way, one polling companys reputation will be burned tomorrow night. Funny how Morgan is now in the middle.
Steven Kaye. Yep Rudd will never be as popular as Latham in QLD.
Sorry S.Kaye, the “actual” poll will show a swing to the ALP. Mr Rudd will defeat the lying, divisive, mean and nasty little thing called John Howard and will be PM tomorrow night.
It smells to me like Newspoll trying to artifically create a supposed swing back to Howard by oversampling National Party strong regional areas and including more figures from WA. Possum and other qualified psephologists, could I be right about this?
Simon H thx for your comments. Make a lot of sense.
ESJ – if you accept my ‘11 in the bag’ premise (3 SA, 2 Qld, 3 NSW, 2 Tas, 1 WA) – which you do with respect to SA & Tas at least, then the ALP need a net gain of 5 more seats out of the remaining 29 around the country.
You’re more bullish than me to give Solomon to them already!!
WA could go -2 (Cowan & Swan), which means they must win 7 rather than 5. (6 not including Solomon). Personally, -2 in WA (or net -1 after Hasluck), is worst case – but will accept that as reasonably likely.
Agree NSW & Qld will determine it. Bonus is anything in Vic plus the 3 others in SA (you don’t give them a chance in Boothby, Sturt & Lilley).
But you are right – if NSW/Qld don’t deliver out of the 17 seats nominated, then ALP lose.
Think this is unlikely (as do you) – but not impossible.
By 6:30 or 7, the NSW/Qld exit polls should at least tell us if its a rout. If not, then we’re going to have a lot of fun watching for hrs and hrs…
479
I understand the polling companies use weighting based on regions and age groups and other things.
Steven Kaye Says:
November 23rd, 2007 at 6:43 pm
Sorry, Kina. The Newspoll will also show a swing away from Labor in Queensland.
I will bet almost anything that there is a swing to labor even in the Newspoll never mind the election in Queensland.
I think Newspoll/shannnna are saying that the swing is not as strong in QLD as in the last poll.
Rudd is the New Wally ! The New King of Lang Park tomorrow night !
TPP 56 seats 95
Trendlines still has Labor at about 88 seats.
480: Labor won’t be losing Lilley.
Howard was in Leichardt today(10% margin)
Rudd was in Dickson today(10% margin)
Both of their internal polling doesn’t seem to be agreeing with Newspoll or Galaxy.
Blindoptimist says: Possum, I noted your comment on your own site, indicating that Newspoll has increased the number of rural/regional respondents for this poll. If so, wouldn’t this compromise the random sampling method? In effect, isn’t it similar to over-sampling marginal seats?
Yes, blindoptimist, unless they, and ACN, and Morgan, have all been UNDERSAMPLING rural seats all the rest of the time.
I know which answer I think is most likely!
Cheers
Rod
All the momentum (according to news reports) is with the coalition. They are reporting 52/48 as Howard on the verge of snatching another come from behind victory (even had grabs of Howard claiming that he could sense that he was coming back) Is there such a thing as a bandwagon effect? They seem to ignore that Howard is still behind.
If not a rout, and I think its less likely than more likely – then following a comment of yours from another thread, ESJ, I thoroughly agree that Libs should turn to Turnbull rather than Costello and create a moderate vibe.
With a smallish majority, if Rudd disappoints or circumstances work against the ALP govt, then I think a mod Lib party can definitely win in 2010…
If either a rout or Costello getting it or Turnbull losing Wentworth, then obviously the ALP is better off
Big Blind Door Knocker and HH, the issue is that someone heard on the radio today that Newspoll had oversampled rural electorates, which means a boost to the National vote (and hence the Coalition vote in the final 2PP result). Considering that there’s only two National seats that are really in play (Page and to a lesser extent, Flynn) this inflation in the National and Coalition 2PP vote is artificial.
Ta #474; does that mean no full effect from Kellygate?
Yes pretty hard to see Lilley going down. I have been in Clayfield and Hamilton a lot in the last few weeks and there are nearly as many Swan posters in those oldmoney suburbs as for the Lib Guy.
I admire the folks who live in huge 10 to 15 rooms houses with Swan posters out the front they must be hated by a lot of the Locals
I listened to AM and the world at noon on ABC radio today. Government spokepeople were sh*t scared. I don’t think they’re confident at all. I agree, the movements of the leaders aare telling. It must be on.
It seems Morgan’s face to face poll tomorrow is going to show 55.5/45.5, which would be consistent with their phone poll results today of 54.5/45.5. (their face to face polls are always a little bit better for Labor)
This puts them right in the middle of Nielsen on the one hand and Galaxy and Newspoll on the other. What a pisser it would be if they turned out to be the right ones – after all the nasty things we’ve said about them this year.
To be fair, ESJ, maybe you were not advocating a moderate vibe – rather a changing of the guard for its own sake. Just wishful thinking on my part that you would agree a moderate Lib party would be a good thing – perhaps !!
This means that Newspoll is trying to mess with everyone’s heads and sell more papers, and if you want to insinuate it, alter the election result by having an atention grabbing headline which has Howand coming back. Let’s hope they’re badly wrong.
ducko – most people don’t know there is even “momentum”.
Momentum in the last week yes. If it was 50-50 all campaign, then yes. But momentum in the last 6 hours? Momentum to do what?
I should remind everyone that according to Galaxy 62% of the electorate would wonder what we are bothering as they think the ALP will win.
That stupid show on 9 is “home polling” by SMS. It showed 65-35 for Abbot against Roxon and 65-35 for Turnbull against Garrett. Hockey’s on now. Gillard was described as “Labor’s answer to girl power” why do I put myself through this stuff
The result of those polls is that 100% of people polled like handing over money to Channel 9.
I’m sticking with the ACN prediction, something fishy about Newspoll and Galaxy if you look at their timing, how very convenient!
495 Nick – On recent past elections chances are they are wrong.
So let me try and summarise here cause I think both sides need a bit of a kick up the bum: Labor supporters, STOP worrying, Liberal supporters keep clutching at the Newspoll/Galaxy straws that have been flung at you.
Let’s look at the week:
1. NOTHING policy wise happened. Nada. Nothing for even the marginals, and especially nothing for swinging voters to get excited about.
2. The Liberal Party had a disastrous week campaigning – no need to re-list them all here, but think instead “what was something really positive about the Liberals I can remember in the last week” – um, nada again? I think so.
3. Suddenly we have two polls that show a 52 instead of the usual 54-55 for TPP for Labor. WTF? If 1 and 2 are true (which they are) what suddenly changed so hundreds of thousands of voter’s minds? The BS narrowing? The BS on all those undecideds in the last 1-2 days? I don’t think see.
Putting to one side the Galaxy poll (reasons? where do I begin?!), which leaves us with a sudden large movement in TPP to the Libs in the Newspoll. We are starting to hear that Newspoll has added more regional voter sampling in this final poll… WTF? Why? Not why have they done this politically (although we all know the answer) but why have they done this from a polling/statistical point of view? Anyone? Hmmm, doesn’t make sense does it.
They’re [Newspoll] trying to achieve a lot with this strategy – assist Howard politically and hopefully remain within the MoE, which looks like they’ll fail both. If this poll somehow manages to move some voters back to the coalition and the result is closer to 53 TPP for Labor tomorrow then at least they’ll look like they still have a respectable outfit… even if it means the rodent loses. If this doesn’t happen, then boy, will they have played the worst hand of all-in poker of all time.
The different sampling methods being used must introduce questions about the utility of the reported results. This makes me wish i had paid a lot more attention to stats when i had the chance. Anyway, considering the strong pro-labor swings are in States where they can win lots of seats, even 52% will be easily enough to defeat the coalition. I am not alarmed (yet) but am intrigued!
Basil, I think that Newspoll is O’Reilly and AC Neilsen is Stubbs
Grog – to imply that Howard is finishing with a wet sail. That this superman is coming from nowhere to win the unwinnable. Only Howard can do this!!! Of course it’s all crap & will amount to nought but this is what they are trying to do?
498 ShowsOn – the young Libs in full swing.
I’ve hardly been a nervous nellie during the campaign, until this newspoll came out. I know it is totally irrational .. unfortunately as a union official I don’t want to be up a wall and shot if howard gets back in
Here’s something to do while you wait for tomorrow’s Oz
Use the newspoll state by state breakdowns.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=state&national=0&nsw=7.9&vic=7&qld=11.1&wa=5.4&sa=9.4&tas=5&act=5&nt=5&retiringfactor=1.5
Move the sliders according to what we know – QLD and WA are less of a swing.
Move them all till you get a pretty realistic looking state by state that comes to a national 52%, and see if you have the ALP losing.
Or see if you have the ALP getting about 79-80 seats….
But ducko to what end? There’s nothing left to do. No ads, no anyhting really. You think peope whose vote is undecided at this point first thing get up in the morning and read The Oz?
RGee @ 506 see my post above. Stop being nervous.
On a 2pp basis 87% of Labor voters
pronounce Edward StJohn’s surname as ‘Saint John’.
In the marginals, 60% were not aware he would prefer ’sin-gin’.
The other 27% were aware, but just said it that way to piss him off.
Now I gotta cook dinner – back soon to read through the hundreds of posts I’ll miss
ESJ, regarding Neilsen versus Newspoll accuracy:
I was polled in this Newspoll sample and said I was going to vote Liberal. I didn’t want people sticking with the Libs to avoid a landslide.
lol JFC.
I thought the other 27% knew but think it sounds wanky.
LOL JFC
Expat Follower – Labor may really be crying in this state (NSW) about Dobell and Robertson. If you know the candidates, one has lost previously the other came from Melbourne you will know why
K JIn – I think in QLD a 6% swing gives 2 or 3 seats. Not enough
Maybe JWH is right, you cant fatten the pig on market day?
Still if the election is to be won it is in NSW and QLD.
rod @ 486…
…
Thanks for confirming this for me. I also think it is very unlikely that the pollsters routinely under-sample regional voters. This would invalidate many years of data. But I can see why they might want to publish a ‘too-close-to-call’ result on election-eve.
Obviously, what we need is a long-run data series that is collected, validated and presented in a completely consistent way every time. Sounds like ACN, maybe? We will see soon enough!
In a way, it’s good that the 52/48 occurred once the Tele and Oz had already made up their editorial minds. Can you see the Oz ediotorialising for Rudd if they had the 52 Newspoll. They are trying to pick a winner.
Just looking at the odds in the safe liberal seat of Ryan, Labor has shortened today into the lowest price since betting on the seat began, now @ $2.25, I got set a week or so ago @ $3.05, the narrowing, the narrowing.
Dave from Albury 512 -
People like you are why you have to be suspect about the p