Sky News reports tomorrow’s Newspoll at 52-48. The Australian reports a sample size of 2614, but no primary votes. Normally you wouldn’t doubt the result with four polls telling you 52-48, 52-48, 54.5-45.5 and 57-43, but surely there’s some significance to the fact that the two closest polls of the year have come in the day before polling day.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
1,500 Comments
1st
You beauty.
Hopefully it gets closer and closer
How very Galaxy of them…
I’m still predicting 87 seats to Labor at the least. Bring on tomorrow night!
phew
it won’t be less than 52 then.
labor will win
Bahahaha. Cliffhanger pffft!!!
What an anticlimax.
Government still pooned.
whats happening on the betting markets?
Well, 52-48. I’ll take that with MOE, which I guess is about 2-3%? I can’t see the LNP being happy with that.
4 poll average 53.6?
yawn. i’ll take the less volatile and steady AC Neilsen thank you.
galaxy and newspoll. what a farce.
Well this is the last Newspoll, and considering that last time round, Newspoll favoured Labor by 2.7 points, it puts Howard in the lead on 2pp, and will romp home to victory.
Have the primaries been published ?
This will be as low as it goes – labor will win.
So 3 Pollsters show a 2% drop to ALP in one week
IF they are right , then 9 months polling was absolutely useless and MISLEADING
Absolutely disgusted and sad
@brad: looks like a lot of money is being dropped on the LNP this arvo.
80 seats I will be right. Was it Charles that had all the predictions a while ago?
Still sticking with 89 seat to Labor with a TPP of 54%.
Oh, Denis, never stop being Denis.
Newspoll uses the fixed 69/31 ratio for distributing preferences. Labor would probably pick up at least 75% or more of Green preferences plus some others. So it’s probably more like 54/46.
I see no reason to change my prediction of a minimum 80 seats to Labor.
Primaries?
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22808891-601,00.html
cliffhanger yawn – no news here people just moe
labor to win comfortably
The simple fact is, the Coalition is out of it.
The only two possible scenarios are:
1) Comfortable ALP win
2) Crushing ALP win.
Reminder to all: John Howard did NOT campaign today in Leichart, held on a 10% margin, because this one will be tight.
So, 4 poll average is the best predictor
ACN 57 = ALP win
Galaxy 52 = ALP win
Morgan 54.5 = ALP win
Newspoll 52 = ALP win
Average = 53.87 a swing of over 6% from 2004
Bring it on!
Oh smeg.
This is exactly what JWH needed – a poll which could be spun to give the electorate the feeling that by voting for him, they are backing a winner.
Smeg. I’m going to have a word with the “analyst” of Newspoll….
That’s it? Cliffhanger, days of counting, court of disputed returns? I guess they have to sell papers but after the build up this is a serious let down. Average of polls must be about 54 ALP – no change
What a shame they’ve sorted out their dodgy preference allocation from last time.
Bull Butter
Bahahaaa! I cant wait to see your faces tomorrow when Rudd romps it.
So cruel of Newspoll to do this to you. And actually, its 52-48. Nothing new, another poll showing ALP will win.
I personally think elements of the Oz public ARE dumb enough that Howard will get a 1% kick out of Lindsay gate. Usual grubby trick – but to no avail.
It wont save your hides Saturday!
Again, tell me, what national poll has the ALP losing this election?
The sample size was larger than average – 2614.
sweet!!!!!!!!!!!!
52-48
Howie by 3
ladies and gentleman we now have the narrowing.
GAME ON
it will be fun to watch some of the pollsters wipe away all that egg
http://www.iasbet.com has the Coalition blowing out ot $4.50.
Newspoll are just copying Galaxy so they don’t look stupid by themselves.
ALP will have 12 seats won by the times the polls close in QLD.
I think John, you are falling into the same trap we “lefties” are falling into. You’ve been so use to seeing mid to high 50’s for Labor’s TPP that you view 52 as being bad for Labor and 48 being good for the coalition this far out from the election. Hell, that is a loss for your side John.
Take some time to remember just why Howard will be voted out tomorrow:
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=MVzO017lcA4
An rant about what was wrong with the last 11 years set to a pretty catchy tune.
defence chief to make announcement at 4.30
Shanahan makes me want to puke
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22808891-601,00.html
“After being written off as a ‘has been’ John Howard’s last week of campaigning will give the Coalition hope of pulling off a miraculous victory tomorrow. “
They’ve used the 2004 preference flows. Can one of the wiser heads explain if that is or isn’t a problem?
what poll was best in 2004?
pamphletgate impact still to come…tomorrow
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22808949-12377,00.html
Rudd shakes hands ‘like a girl’
MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE
With ACN disappearing in one direction and Galaxy and Newspoll heading in the other, Morgan musn’t be able to believe his luck…
The media narrative tonight and tomorrow morning, unfortunately, will be:
Howard is making a potentially remarkable comeback in the very last moments of the campaign. Sad, but true, nothwithstanding the true import of the poll, which is not clear yet, given no primary etc.
Nostro: Nielsen has got it pretty much right for the last 3 elections.
David Briggs must be suddenly doing Newspoll as well.
Or, they’ve oversampled Western Australia for some strange reason.
Ron Brown (15) I told you earlier today that Morgan DOESN”T show a 2% drop in the ALP primary. Their phone poll at the beginning of the campaign was 45% ALP. Now it is 44.5% ALP. Also it’s much bigger face to face poll, which always has a higher ALP primary than its phone polls, is still to come tomorrow. Try to get a grip man.
Well at least now they can gets some bets on the LNP.
Nice to have two independent pollsters around.
This poll result is of course not credible except for being moe and, not consistent. You will see 54/46 tomorrow – and Rudd is out there still tring to pick up those 10% seats.
How in the world do you coalition supporters expect to win the election with 48% TPP? It won’t happen?
Dario – this is hardly the time nor place to promote a Simpsons cartoon character!!
The Narrowing!The Narrowing!The Narrowing!The Narrowing!The Narrowing!The Narrowing!The Narrowing!The Narrowing!The Narrowing!The Narrowing!The Narrowing!The Narrowing!The Narrowing!The Narrowing!The Narrowing!The Narrowing!
Dario, what have you got against Larry and Curly?
Jason Wood in La Trobe must be in trouble. Some old duck (probably his mum) standing on the side of the road with a lib sign.
1. Why is Geoffery Rush commenting on the election on Sky?
2. Any suggestions on what the big red banner of Defence Chief statement at 4:30 is going to be about?
Glen: Newspoll is the same size as ACN
Big sample – 2614 – when was it taken, and was it loaded towards the marginals?
i’d say death of troops
Taking into consideration the recent volatility of newspoll, the real figure is a reasounding win to Libs at 50/50…
I am eminently happy with 52:48. Frightens the waverers back into line.
You Lib supporters just don’t know what’s coming.
Then plug 53.87 TPP into AG’s calculator and you get
ALP 87
LNP 61
IND 2
Grover @ 56 – apparently an incident re an Aussie soldier in Afghanistan.
Burgey, Richie Benaud said a little bit of it was after the Lindsay fiasco.
Does anyone know the MOE?
Denial – is that all you leftards can manage?
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/poll.gif
Looks a bit silly to me.
I am praying it’s not a troop death – I have a mate serving o/s. A troop death on election eve – surely could not bode well for Howard?
That idiot from Dickson won’t vote for Rudd because of his handshaking method?
LMAO
best news all day… you lot got me all worked up for the last hour about impending “narrowing”… this is a great result.. it is well within MOE…the only independent poller is ACN and they have the best methodology (whether it will be accurate who knows but that is the case) .. . the average of the polls suggests well over 53… which is landslide territory…
This Defence Chief announcement at 4.30pm makes me extremely nervous – is it the ultimate rabbit out of hat from Howard?
Yes Asanque, so we have AC outlyer at 57, a dodgy Morgan phone poll at 55-45 and 2 polls at 52-48…hmmm either way 2 polling companies are wrong.
Still id rather it be 52-48 than 58-42.
So from 61/39 to 52-48 Howie has done well to come back but its anybodies guess who’ll win tomorrow.
The 2004 preference flows belong to 2004, much stronger to Labor this time round. Across the country at that to.
No Nostradamus.
I know.
You are right.
Howard in a landslide.
Grover. I think someone mentioned a death in Afghanistan.
Flash. Friday night is the lowest point in the news cycle. everyone is out at the pub, or taking kids to friends’ houses, or having people over for dinner.. etc. no impact.
No political party has ever lost an election with 52% of the vote.
Ever.
Howard Hater he voted pre-polled for Labor i think from the article lol he wanted to change his vote though lol!
Something is really f’ed up here. ACN has a poll that is 57/43 and a MOE of about 2%, and Newspoll has a 52/48 with a MOE of 2%. These don’t overlap. Only one to overlap wan others is Morgan.
MOE: 0.98/sqrt(2614)= 1.9%
Pamhplettgate will only aid coalition, I’m afraid. But too late.
Its really well poised for a very satisfying night: ALP will win easily, by 830pm, and if that aint good enough: look at the ridiculous contortions the GG are in!
backing ALP at the last mo, after a full year of scandalously stupid pro-government spin, then spinning this poll (which shows ALP winning) as a last minute reprieve! Oh boy. This is gonna be good.
Ship the eggs in. Its gonna be a long messy breakfast on Sunday.
I think the SMH says it all
“The latest Newspoll says the Coalition is improving but Kevin Rudd will still win for Labor tomorrow.
The results, announced at 4pm, puts Labor in front at 52 per cent on a two-party preferred basis, compared with the Coalition’s 48 per cent.”
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/rudd-will-win-new-poll/2007/11/23/1195753279860.html
I told you all the Budget Bounce would come.
Thanks, Autocrat.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22808968-601,00.html
Digger killed in Afghanistan
AN Australian soldier is believed to have died in an “operational incident” in Afghanistan.
I think in fact the worst result long-term for the Libs would be Labor 76, Ind 2, LNP 72. This is because the fewest of the current bunch would be swept away – there would be much gnashing of teeth over things like the Lindsay pamphlets, the Costello “handover” etc. Howard might still be there causing problems. This was the pattern of several states – NSW 95, Qld 98, Vic 99 – followed by massive Labor wins. I think a Coalition wipe-out is probably better for them in the long term – gets rid of more “deadwood”.
Or how about ALP 75, Ind 2, LNP 73 – Bob Katter / Tony Windsor could be speaker and wouldn’t either of them just love that!
As has beenpointed out, some pollsters are gogni to look very silly on Saturday night. They can’t all be right.
Maybe an attempt to limit the damage to Howard.
good luck everyone. we’ll know in just over a day now.
The Australian reports:
“Newspoll’s two-party preferred figure, based on preference flows at the 2004 election, has the Labor Party in front by 52 per cent to the Coalition’s 48 per cent”
How does this compare to 2pp this election?
Reactions to this poll from both “sides” is quite funny. The poll itself is quite ho-hum. It’s possible the Coalition may still win, but two 52-48 polls not in their favour is piss weak evidence and I’m not going to worry about something that’s not likely to eventuate.
Lenore Taylor & Ovington on Sky coming up now – very mismatched pair.
caroline going to be completely outclassed
This movement defies all logic (MOE considerations notwithstanding). This last week as been a disaster for the coalition as was the previous week. Are we to believe that campaign has had no effect whatsoever??
Rejoice 28 hours left and no more Howard govt.
The 52:48 2pp is just for the loser libs to buy the friggin newspaper and read about the narrowing. Had they been more realistic like Nielson or Morgan Uncle rupes papers wouldn’t have sold as well
Yet another poll showing Labor will win. Very reassuring. When I see a single poll or analyst showing a Labor loss, I’ll start worrying. In the words of the Bard;
Banquo: It will be rain tonight
First murderer: Let it come down
Lenore Taylor zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Well I guess that’s it then.
Every poll conducted since Rudd was elected has Labor at least 4 points ahead.
And the Liberals are ecstatic? How come they’re still $4.50?
For them it’s a bit like the excitement of watching the Lotto balls coming up. You figure you’re in with a chance but really, deep down, you know it’s not going to happen.
Tony Windsor even without his mentor Peter Andren would possibly be a fine speaker and give impetuous to making the speakers electorate a non-contestable one.
When was the Newspoll taken? Shanahan’s story refers to final 72 hours being a cliffhanger – does this mean it was taken 3 days out?
OVerington on sky = chunder…
The Australian Newspoll – will have to wait until tomorrow to find out the primary votes.
Ho Hum – rodents still going down
Pretty much.
Or more precisely the minutiae of the campaign and their analysis are of low importance to most voters.
At least we know now there are no other polls to worry about. The worst polls for the year came out as 52/48 for the ALP.
I’m still a little surprised they didn’t poll Bennelong for publication this morning.
So, in sum, all polls point to Ruddster.
I can get back to work!
Enjoy, bludgers. May drop in tonight – last night of the Howard regime.
So, apparently Morgan have one more poll coming out.
Doubt they’ll be predicting a “cliffhanger”.
Gary Bruce, personally I think Labor will get over the line by a couple of seats. But let’s be very clear – the Coalition can win if they get 48%. As I showed on this site a few days ago…. they could actually do it with less, though obviously it becomes less likely.
The thing people are not factoring in is that the Liberals have not campaigned in any Labor seats, so there are big swings to the ALP in seats it already holds. There are also some bigger swings in Lib safe seats…
So the swing in the marginals could be such that the Govt holds on, just. Now as I say, I think Labor will get over the line, but don’t think 52-48 is safe for Labor. If it is 52-48 tomorrow it will be a coin toss. Remember, in 1987 Hawke would have won with 47.9% (though he got more)
This is a con – buy tomorrows GG to get the full results. Ha Ha
This poll shows Bennelong lost, yeah.
Overington on Sky…..what to do the “coloring in”
3% improvement for the LNP after this week? pfft…
Econocrat. my thought exactly.
When was the last election a party won with 48%TPP?
Accept it. It looks as though 52 48 is where we are sitting at the moment.
57 for Labor is so out of the ballpark for Labor that its not funny. This is the outlier and it should be forgotton.
I have got the gut feeling that this election is going to be very very close.
Either side can win at this stage.
Does Overington make animals out of long balloons or juggle as well?
thanks Guru. it takes a bit of guts to go against the pack.
The problem with just dismissing this (and the Galaxy poll which is unfavourable) as MOE is that you’re dismissing all incremental movements. Surely you have to look at the totality of campaign Newspolls. Effectively you have seen the gap close from 16% at the start of the campaign to 4% on Election Eve. It may comfort people to dismiss that 12% close as all MOE. For mine though, it represents a genuine narrowing. Having said that, I still expect Labor to win 53/47. ACN is dreaming, just quietly.
Howard cannot win win 48% tpp.
LOL!
Ah, poor lib sympathisers. Newspoll/Galaxy flunkies giving you a little tune to whistle in the dark to keep your spirits up.
It beggers belief that after the campaign week the coalition had they’d pull back so much. . . And with Howard campaigning in seats with a 10% buffer
The devil will be in to detail ( and the rounding which we wont see)
There’ll be an anomaly in the national vote and negligible movement on primary.
Is there any reason to suspect this is any more than NO CHANGE from a week ago ?
It’s likely this was taken Wed/Thur nights; this is normal for Newspoll’s final. Newspoll uses aggregate minor party prefs flows from 2004. That means it doesn’t matter what the Greens got, it just gives 61% of prefs to Labor automatically. If Labor support has gone to the Greens, the 2PP will not reflect any increase in Greens; it’ll only reflect a decrease in Labor’s primary.
Haha – just look at the Newspoll history – see the odd one out? Are the playing games here or just an unlucky sample?
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/poll.gif
I don’t see why we can’t take the Morgan polls of 58+ seriously but we will take these 52s so serious.
I think it is dumb asking who has had the better or worse campaign. The winner of the campaign is whoever wins the election.
If we take the five polls released in the last 24 hours (ACN did phone and online, both with the same results, hmm), and throw out the highest and lowest, we still have 57-43, 54-46 and 52-48.
Which seems to point to something in the 54-46 range.
Ruawake, i agree 48% is not good, but the simple math of this shows they can win with 48% …. it is not open to dispute, it is a matter of simple maths… .whether they do is entirely a matter of where the swings are…
that said, i think Labor will get there
Labor can get 51% and still lose.
Newspoll says Labor has 52%
Can the lefties at least acknowledge that the election might be close?
Talk of a landslide is now clearly hubris.
We knew the final polls would show a narrowing. This is no longer in dispute.
I expect there will be a continuing move back to the coalition until polls close.
Forget the pollsters (we always knew these were nothing more than a rough guide). The real ‘egg on face’ brigade will be the bookies.
Greg
True, to go from 16% to 4% is a narrowing, but such a movement against such anionept government especially with the campaigning is not right, there are errors in there.
probably the 16% is too high and the 4% is too low and the final result is somehwere in between.
God let this be over. I’ve done bugger all work this week. If my boss has been tracking my web use I’m out. I wonder if i can get a job as a pollster. After Saturday some of them will be losing there jobs.
ruawake – Your on the money!
Now Now. Leave the Liberals be. So far they’ve enjoyed believing their own spin, don’t deny them their last moments of delusion. “We caught them napping”
10pse you can say that ’til you’re blue in the face and they won’t agree with you.
Jim I doubt the bookies are going to care if Labor lose… they’ll pocket heaps.
Damn.
If the preferences are being allocated 60/40 then the primary votes are 46/44.
If the preferences are being allocated 70/30 then the primary votes are 45/45. I bet they did 60/40 and that is underestimating.
So , I reckon Labor are on at least a 46% primary and that the we can’t but win with that.
Hold the line people. Hold the line.
I’d really like a look at the state-by-state, frankly.
POLL ANALYSIS
Lets accept 3 pollsters drop Labor’s vote by 2% in a week
and maybe the ‘Lindsay’ Muslim rort DID FAVOR the Liberals in thurs nite polling
1/ What does 52% mean ???? 52% can be anywhere from 51.51% to 52.44%
2/ 52% to 48%….but we do NOT know now WHICH STATES have the swing
OPTIMISTIC
eg. if it is 52 to 48 in Q’LD vs 2004 ACTUAL Labor 2 PP vote of 42.91%
then that is a state (but NOT seat swing of 9.09%)
PESSIMISTIC
5% in Vic and 8% in SA is useless
Labor needs the big swing in Q’ld OR a bigger swing again in NSW
I am shattered to see 2% primary disappear in a week
Without seeing the primary votes, I’d suggest that preference flows aren’t factored in correctly (as some have noted above). Higher Greens primaries, as they’ve only started to advertise in the last two weeks, and bad preference allocation depress what should be 53/47 to 52/48.
As a Labor supporter, yes, there has been a tightening in the polls, but only because the 60/40 stuff was outrageous and never going to happen. Remember, the most popular Labor PM ever, Hawke, got 53.7% of the TPP in ‘83. And Rudd ain’t Hawkie (neither is Howard’s Government as unpopular or as economically beset as Fraser’s was). So Rudd was never going to get 55% at the ballot box.
My prediction? 53-47 tomorrow, and ultimately 82-84 seats for the ALP. Along with a lot of big swings in safe seats, and a couple of potential upsets, eg North Sydney. Some margins cut down to become low-hanging fruit for the ALP in their first tilt at re-election come 2010.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/poll.gif
Doesn’t look a narrowing to me. The sequence makes this poll look like an outlier.
Only the Galaxy has shown a genuine narrowing of sorts.
primaries 44 43 according to rumour at PP
Well, that’s the narrowing over and done, bring on the election. Still Labor’s election.
incidentally, in case Ruddites were hoping that the 52 was rounded down from 52.4 for instance, i am reliably informed from party sources that it was in fact rounded up…. just trying to get exact number… sounds like 51.7 – 48.3
Hahahahahaha….look at the lib backers…..like a 13 y/o boy who has found dads stash of porn………in the end still not the real thing
So does that mean that if the Libs win tomorrow
EVERY POLLING COMPANY WILL HAVE EGG ON THEIR FACE?
It is funny how happy some of the Labor supporters are at the prospect that John Howard will lose this election. And they are so happy that Kevin Rudd will win this election, so who is Kevin?
He is a fiscal conservative, whose wife is one of the most successful entrepreneur in Australia. He is from a business background and his whole campaign has been “that we will do everything that Howard has done”. The policy of the 2 is so similar, that it is almost impossible to differentiate between them ….. yes Kevin will agree to Kyoto, no target in the near future, but Australia will reduce emmition by 50% by 2050 (ie when Kevin is dead)
He wants to be the next John Howard, the nerd his own party didn’t like, but was at the right place and the right time to win an election. Rudd’s policy is so far to the right that he might have won the Liberal leadership challenge if there was one.
There is really no choice on Saturday, we can vote for the Liberals or the Liberals under Rudd. And people here are so happy. LOL
yes 10pse, Isabella was talking about a 51.5/48.5 earlier.
Accept it, we are probably at lowest ALP 53% at highest ALP 55% but most likely close to 54% This will be a landslide or at worst a comfortable win.
The real worry for Howard is if the AC Nielsen did pick up a trebd of a lot of dissafected voters because of his disasterous campaign and the interest rate rise and were on exodus.
We will just change it dufus……hahahahahahaha
New Boothby poll thread, if anyone’s interested.
Battening down the hatches, are we, dovif?
Jim @ 125
It might be you that has egg on your face tomorrow Jim. If the polls are only a rough guide, how can you say there is a narrowing based on one or two polls? There’ve been over 100 polls averaging 55/45 yet you choose the two lowest in the set to demonstrate that the rest are wrong?
pathological logic
no, just happy the right will remain in power
Anyone know when the poll was actually taken and whether it was based on a broad national sample or something more specifically focused?
I get suspicious when only 2PP results are presented, especially given “issues” with preference treatment by some pollers.
The absence of any breakdown of the “Coalition” vote into Lib and Nat leaves some big questions too. When Newspoll has “peaked” for the coalition in recent times we’ve often seen it associated with a higher than usual Nat primary vote, sometimes even counteracting a decline amongst the Libs. This suggests that sometimes a higher proportion of country voters get polled. Given that almost all of the vulnerable coalition seats are actually held by the Libs this can make a big difference to the meaning of the poll.
Cheers
Rod
This is a mid-week poll. Haven’t we seen previous mid-week polls are less favourable for ALP ? If so, don’t know why ? Working people harder to track down on a weeknight ? Anyone found any underlying data for the Newspoll ?
If neophyte’s 44-43 primaries are the case, the Greens must be doing well, and their prefs will go to Labor. Probably more like 53-47 in that case.
52% TPP in Qld is 10 seats. Ha Ha
Its not close at all.
LOL redwombat – I agree. The REAL thing is on tomorrow & I KNOW Labor will win!
This is such transparently biased polling I cannot believe we are giving it credence by posting.
83:65:2.
Rob at #149:
To be fair, Jim did choose the two latest as well as the two lowest.
151 Jim
we do know the Galaxy was taken BEFORE race-hate gate
This will be my last post on this blog before the big night. I am predicting 87 seats to Labor and feeling pretty good. I will sleep well tonight and enjoy the fireworks tomorrow.
Thanks to william and the other contributers for making this a great site.
See you all tomorrow
there is normally a 2% error in the sample anyway most people who are at work are not been sampled or has no time to be sampled
ruawake where do you get the idea it’s 52 in Queensland?
At Newspolls usual 69:31 pref split, this’d give 53/47. Something isn’t quite right.
So LTEP, you didn’t have the guts to take me on, you phony gutless fake.
this poll certainly make the Libs happy, but I’m sure they would be in heaven if the results was reversed: Labor 48 / Coalition 52. hahahahhhh
Sure, Labor are not so happy with this result, but get real gentlemen, who are happier?
CALM DOWN YOU LOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
There, that should work!
First thing, it’s Newspoll, ’nuff said.
Second thing: Rudd will win this
Third thing: See second thing
Oh yeah, and it’s much better that we get a couple of dodgey and anomalous polls the day before voting because it really focuses the mind of the electorate. Punters will have to think about it more, and not just go ‘oh well, Rudd’s in anyway so my vote won’t count’.
So, calm down, the Rodent is packing now.(In both senses)
I can’t for the life of me understand why on the eve of an election they can’t ask voters who specify a minor party with their first preference “who will receive your higher preference between Liberal and Labor?”
The fact that the Oz still thinks it is 2004 makes me think they want to get a bad result.
Why would Newspoll trash their own reputation at this stage of the election? It’s not biased. It may be right. It may be wrong. But it’s not biased.
I’d not heard that one about mid-week polls before. Interesting theory.
centre I’m here to discuss polls and politics, not to get into petty and childish fights with anyone. Who cares if I’m fake? Get over it. If William had a problem with me posting here he’d let me know and I’d go. Let’s not waste his time with petty squabbling.
Wake up to yourself, Centre.
William, yes… I’ve noticed mid-week polls tend to produce lower numbers for the ALP. That’s not scientific, it’s just what I’ve noticed. Remember that (at that time) low 55/45 for the ALP a few months ago that was taken mid-week to judge Budget reactions?
Rob, I would rather take the last 23 of your 100 polls than the first 2, that were when, in April?
You have to have punt and I think ACN will be proven closet of the polls done today. But I will take the Hubris off my toast and say Labour will have to settle for 56 TPP. = 95 seats.
Needed that 52-48 Newspoll like a hole in the head. I was hoping to be able to enjoy the day tomorrow – now I will be worrying about Collywobbles all day.
10 pse, assuming 44/43 is correct for primaries:
If it was TPP 51.7 then that would imply that Labor’s primary of 43.5 (worst case) and Coalition’s primary (best case) of 43.5 that the preference allocation was 63% to Labor!!!
Nice try – but BUZZZZ – you lose
If the preference allocation is more like 69% where it should be you get 52.47 worst case for Labor
LTEP
If Qld is not 52% then other states are even higher. 52-48 is a Labor win no matter how anyone would like to spin it.
The polls which came out at the start of the campaign (after the Libs tax cuts) were mid-week polls weren’t they?
So what is Johnnie going to say when he calls George W to apologise for losing the election?
” That bloody Muslim pamphlet thing you told us to try didn’t work ”
” It’s Costello’s fault. I could have won but the people didn’t want me to hand over to the Smirk ”
” I still love you George “
Calm down people. There will be no landslide. 82-84 seats is still 22-24 won by the ALP…that’s around 16% of the House changing hands. if you want more, you;re greedy – if you expect more you’ll be disappointed.
Newspoll actually does us all a favour. Waters down the anticipation of 90+ seats. Would hate to see mass depression on this site if the ALP ‘only’ win 80-85 seats, which has been the likely result all along. Maybe now, given the increased nervousness, people will take the 10-15 majority and be mighty pleased indeed – its a great result.
Agree its hard to reconcile narrowing with this week of Lib campaigning. Had bullishly gone out to 84:64:2, but anything >80 meets expectations.
Here’s the predictable Shanahack piece: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22808891-601,00.html
Zochling, I did mention the Colliwobbles here a month ago.
True ruawake, the national figures will mostly be comprised of the most populous states. Unless there’s a huge wild result in one of the less populous states it wouldn’t have a huge impact on the national figure.
Samuel K, unlike you, i don’t apply my own preference flows… i am simply reporting what the Newspoll showed… i don’t vouch for their methodology one way or the other… i am just reporting that that is what i have been told. make of it what you will. unlike many on hear i just like to analyse the info, i don’t barrack
The GG is already linking to it, don’t miss the Star Wars Election – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H1lYCbjzQ4I
Brilliantly done
Why don’t the editors correct Shanhan’s stupid mistakes? He used the word “average” when he actually meant “normal” or “usual”.
If they’ve narrowed this much hopefullly they narrow further tomorrow.
180
I will take any majority, even with indies as per Bracks in 99.
Anything to be rid of the rodent.
Anything. Even the rodent losing his seat and the smirk would be better.
Well I’m actually quite relieved. I was expecting 50/50 at the very least!
All I can say now is that I hope it’s ACN that comes up trumps and that Newspoll and Galaxy end up, in the immortal words of Senator Ron Boswell: with “egg all over their faces from head to toe”!
and yes i know i misspelt here as hear
If it is a hung parliment and the independants have to choose I hope they choose JWH
Joffaboy,
You would rather Peter “HR-Nicholls-Dollar-Sweets-Lets-Have-no-more-awards-or-youth-wages” Costello?
Jeez, give me Abbott anyday, if I had to pick one of that lot.
Well, if it is close in the end then we’ll probably learn something about how quickly a population can change it’s mind – I certainly wouldn’t have credited it after the trend we’ve watched.
I’ll be a disappointed amateur pseph if the trending can change so rapidly, because it’ll mean the trends are worthless. Personally I don’t believe it can – it means nearly a million people will change their minds in a fortnight, against the campaign logic; though that same campaign logic could go out the door too…
It’ sounds like sour grapes at this stage, but a change of the magnitude suggested is a real smack in the face for the pollsters – it means they’ve been failing to get below the surface of the voters to discover anything meaningful.
The ALP problem with this presumed momentum is that it might bring even more focus to voters in tight electorates, and then there’s definitely momentum…
This is going to be a tense 30 hours or so.
Portlandbet.
UPDATE – 100+ seats in total Labor seat market backed into $8.50!!
What a surprise.
The conservatives have firmed slightly in the betting so far. They are still 4.50 with IAS but that should be snapped up soon.
William, LTEP has gone from being pessimistic to being ecstatic. He never fooled me as to his true colours. You can support anyone you like, but he has been taking the other commenters for a ride.
They will narrow further tomorrow. Nothing like a real election will test the electorate’s mettle when considering change; most are likely to stick with the safe option.
ALP – 74
LNP – 74
IND – 2
ALP gains (14) – Kingston (SA), Bonner (QLD), Wakefield (SA), Makin (SA), Braddon (TAS), Parramatta (NSW), Hasluck (WA), Bass (TAS), Solomon (NT), Moreton (QLD), Lindsay (NSW), Eden-Monaro (NSW), Blair (QLD), Herbert (QLD)
LNP gains (0) – Nil
If it is 52-48 that means the Tory vote in WA must be big enough to give us a shot at Cowan and Swan
Just received an automated SMS from Kevin07:
L – yup.
Anything would be better than this small, insular, petty, banal little, little man.
Anything that is on the front bench on the Coalition would be preferable.
I would actually prefer Turnbull or Brough as I think they are both good HR’s but if I had to settle for the smirk I would.
The Shambollocks writes:
“After he was written off as a ‘has-been’, John Howard’s last week of campaigning will give the Coalition hope of pulling off a miraculous victory tomorrow. ”
All hail the Great Leader’s campaign against the Barbarians!
What the f#ck won’t he do to lick Howard’s nether regions?
Howard’s last week of campaigning was as flat as last last night’s beer and had a racist act in the middle of it, courtesy his one time pall Ms Kelly.
Oh yeah, Shambollocks, it was truly brilliant stuff!
GALAXY FEEDBACK
no good news today
rang Galaxy re where was labor’s 52% (between 51.51% up to 52.44%)
would NOT give the figure
BUT UNFORTUNATELY said it was UNDER 52%
Nostradamus,
Enjoy it while you can. In about 30 hours from now you’ll be a snivelling emotional wreck.
Nostradamus and Glen I hope so.
Shanahack was insufferable on the Sky news piece you can get at the GG web site.
10pse – it’s not barracking – it’s arithmetic
A win is a win. In 2002, Mike Rann had to rely on a disaffected Liberal to govern. Look how he turned that around to a landslide in the next election.
At least my tip of 79 seats to the ALP on Ozpolitics from the first half of the year is looking good. After all, the polls are only about what I’d like to see right?
Ha 52-48 could mean if we hold the swings to safe Lib and safe Lab seats and hold our marginals we could still cling to power, also this result means WA should be status quo or Cowan and maybe Swan thus the Tories will have 2 + Calare.
Glen @ 198
Cowan – yes, the Tories will win Cowan, but not Swan. If the ALP held Swan against Cyclone Latham last time, they won’t lose it this time, especially not against a Lib candidate who refuses to campaign in person.
Cowan, however, will be the only seat in the country to be taken off the ALP by the Coalition.
Watch Forrest, Canning, and O’Connor though. Forrest has the independent in with a real chance, Canning will swing back to the ALP by about 6-7%, and Tuckey better hope he gets at least 48% of first preferences or he is GORN in O’Connor – every candidate on the ballot is directing prefs to the Nats.
Listen guys, according to Antony:
52% – Lab: 76 Coal: 72 Ind: 2
57% – Lab: 106 Coal: 42 Ind: 2
Like everything else life, the truth or reality will lie somewhere in between. That is the law of nature, somewhere in between. But please dont me tell, but… but… it depends on where the swing is. If so, WTF we are doing here.
This looks like the Vic 99 election in reverse. At that election, Morgan was always much closer over the trend than the other polls, and was close to the actual result. Newspoll said Kennett would win easily for a long time, but got its final results right. ACN, however, had Kennett easily on its final poll 54-46.
In this election, Galaxy may have replaced Morgan as the closest one, and similar pattern to Vic 99 for Newspoll and ACN.
Just to play the devil’s advocate for a moment, I have been concerned ever since Howard promised a truck load of middle/upper class welfare in his campaign launch and Rudd decided to take the high moral ground and offer a lot less. He got the plaudits of the newspaper editors and the journos, but government subsidised private school fees and expenses must have looked mighty attractive to a lot of voters out there. The Liberals have been letter boxing that message furiously since then and I have been waiting to see if there was going to be any spike in the polls for them
Don’t get me wrong. I’m glad Rudd didn’t go down that path. No Labor government, indeed no decent government of ANY persuasion, could go down the path of taking taxes from the less well off to give to the already very comfortable. But I think he could easily have promised a few other goodies with some of the massive amount of money that Howard promised.
Anyway, hopefully in the end it won’t make any difference. This is one time I will be very happy to be proved totally wrong.
202 – but the TPP is a calculation based on presumed preference flows. That breakdown is still an open question.
Comparing the posts here in the last day or so to last week, you have to say there is a massive change in setiement/confidence.
Some like Gary Bruce have (admirably) held the line. He may be stoic, but in defeat.
If LNP win, and its obviously a big ‘if,’ PollBludger will be a sociology student’s wet dream. So much hubris, so many bold predictions, so much anger. And yet the possibility of being so wrong….
If LNP win (bif ‘if and all that), I wont be here tomorrow night. To come back from so far behind. It would equate to the 1979 Carlton GF win over Collingwodd as one of life’s greatest moments. If Labor win, as expected for so long, well, we’ll all survive, hopefully… If LNP win, well, fathers lock up your daughters.
Higgins will be painted blue.
Is it possible for that many people to change their minds just days before the election. Polls experts????
ABC radio are reporting another Digger has been killed in Afghanistan. Hope neither side tries to use this.
Try and plug that figure in here:
http://www.newspoll.com.au/image_uploads/1105%20Fed%2020-11-07.pdf
Ron Brown @ 203:
So Galaxy told you they rounded *UP* to 52% ?
Well well.. this electon is starting to get interesting..
They are playing with our minds.
Centre, maybe you’re right about LTEP, maybe not. But really who cares? If you don’t like another poster’s comments then apply what I call a Glen filter – ignore them.
I love how the nervous nellies are wringing their hands and saying “thats not right, it cant be right, can it?”
Let me tell you, they would not publish these figures if they did not believe it. They have thousands of dollars of revenue relying on the accuracy, and reputation, of their figures.
You cannot just choose the one poll that gives you favourable results and rubbish the others.
Surely the latest Newspoll can only mean greater devastation for the government. It must be remembered that his popularity is still quite solid, many voters aren’t convinced he’s evil, just that they feel it’s time for a change.
Looking at the Neilson poll they would have been thinking “oh, the poor fella, he’s done a reasonable job and we don’t want to see him humiliated. Now with the apparent narrowing they, to use one of the PM’s favourite lines, “won’t risk it”…voting for JWH again that is!
I haven’t been on since this morning. At that time we were all exuberant. I think ESJ described it as workers and peasants singing in flowering fields, bringing in a bountiful harvest. What has changed? Almost all the papers have endorsed Rudd, even the terror and the GG. Momentum is clearly on the ALP side. Regardless of Newspoll, which overestimated the 2PP of the loser in 2004 by 3 percent, and after the disasterous campaign by the Libs, especially this week courtesy of the Kelly gang, can we really see the weasel snatch this?
I Doubt it! Enjoy it!
Dovif youve come home. Welcome back!
Jim, I just knew you were a Carlton supporter too; I bet your heart pumps pure evil:)
Sumpin wrong here fellas. Good dose of Poss or Oz will help. Ain’t no problem these are bashing at the limit of MOE. Some weighting problems somewhere. Trend line, trend line, trend line. Goes against all media negativity to coalition. Does not make sense. She is still steady as she goes. Anxiety ain’t good for your digestion.
Rocket @ 85
I reckon you’re dead right.
A close Labor win will leave most of the ugliest Libs in place without Unca John to (god only knows how or why) give them a human and respectable face. Rudd will run a tight ship anyhow but a close result will ensure discipline.
When the economy doesn’t tank and the unions don’t take over the nation and terrorists don’t blow us all up the lies, smear and fear of the Coalition will be clear to even the stupid that hang on to Unca John this time.
A decimation for this pack of crooks is coming. I still think it’s tomorrow, but if it’s only a close Labor win then 2010 will do fine.
For the sake of democracy I’d love to see Windsor in the big chair. The disgraceful performance of the incumbent demands reform of the Speaker.
The Speaker, rumour has it that both the Newspoll and Galaxy were rounded up to 52/48.
“52-48 is a Labor win no matter how anyone would like to spin it.”
Exactly. People need to take a chill pill. Of course, we all want the polls to point towards a CERTAIN Labor win, but the fact is that all polls have Labor ahead. The chances of the Coalition getting across the line on 48% are VERY LOW. Sure, it can happen, and a Labor win is not certain, but a Labor win is HIGHLY probable.
Better to be 52 than 48. I wouldn’t want to be a Lib supporter right now, desperately hanging onto one tiny shred of hope.
I’m so excited by this election I can’t concentrate.
Sometimes I mean to go to another site but I start typing in http://www.pollb.. automatically oops.
Watcher,
I must be evil. To the posters on this blog, for voting Liberal I am the devil incarnate. Its just that almost half the population side agree.
John of Melbourne, Bob Katter has already said he will support Kevin Rudd.
44-43 primaries sounds normal to me at this stage, but it depends what they are in the different states. WA may well be 46 Lib 44 Lab and that would distort the other states. Libs need to be 3% ahead of Labor on primaries to win. 44-43 would be a comfortable win for Labor. Still go for 85 62 3 or 85 63 2. Final %? 53-47 down to 52.5- 47.5. It was never going to be 56-44. Queensland and western Sydney are the key.
Thanks Richard.
Wow, big gain for Coalition. Must be due to the great last 5 days they’ve had. lol
Richard Jones WA will have minimal impact on the overall figure unless it’s a huge difference to the national figure. All the states should be weighted according to population.
230, LTEP – Galaxy was reported as primaries 42.5 to 42.5, you can do your own calculations and rounding.
Samuel K and others… let’s settle the 52-48 thing once and for all…
52% is 4.7% national swing to Labor…..
…you all respect Antony Green… so let’s do the following:
1. open his HoR calculator.
2. plug in the following:
- NSW 4.7% swing to Labor
- Vic 4.1% swing to Labor
- QLD 6.8% swing to Labor
- WA 0.3% swing to Coalition
- SA 7.1% swing to Labor
- Tas 6.0% swing to Labor
- ACT 5.8% swing to Labor
- NT 0% swing
This produces a national result of 4.7% and it produces 76 seats for Labor… meaning Labor by a nose.
However….. it also is just applying the swings uniformly across all seats which is crazy. For instance, on this scenario it assumes 1 seat gain for Libs in WA… but it could be 2 without affecting the national figure.
Similarly…. it assumes Wentworth would fall under this scenario which is not likely if the statewide NSW swing is only 4.7%… adjust for that and government holds on
…and because i know someone will say but the swing has to come from somewhere… the point is that getting 8% in Joe Hockey’s seat is not enough.
there endeth the lesson.
that said – Labor will win by a nose
Well Galaxy had FF going from 1% to 2.5%, so I think we can get out the salt for that.
2moro will either be one of the best days of my life
or one of the worst days of my life
there will be no in between!!!
For what it’s worth I think this is an excellent poll for the ALP.
For a long time now, a highish Newspoll has been counterbalanced by a low one, and vice-versa. That says to me that there is a select bunch of voters – maybe 2 percent – who want the government out but are wavering about giving Labor too big a majority. A perceived narrowing now is exactly what is needed to frighten them into line and make them vote the right way on the only day that counts.
People voting against Labor because they’re expecting a blowout is the last thing we need. Chill, people. We’re going to win.
Possum does not seem worried. So neither am I. Much. Well maybe a little bit. But I now I really want Newspoll to be wrong, just so the Shill’s “we understand it because we own it” is banished forever
A question I have meant to ask for sometime now…. why do you all worship possum? i mean i get that he has a blog, and does his thing, but you all have your own views surely… why sprout his?
Regarding Greens preference flows . . . I would be VERY surprised if Labor received less than 75-80%. While it’s anecdotal, I believe that where preferences are directed Labor’s way, around 80+% flow. Where there is an open ticket around 70% do. Of course there is some leakage thru interposing other minor parties, but in the current election most of these (at least in urban/regional areas) will be knocked out long before Greens prefs are distributed.
That’s why it’s REALLY frustrating not to have the primaries tabulated right now. What are the Greens results vs the other minors? I guess I’ll have to wait and see.
Doing Greens HTVs/scruting all day 2moro, so I’ll have to take a break from lurking until after the party. Keep up the pace all – it’s great!
10pse – Because Poss is such an animal with his numbers!
Possums has done up some graphs that provide perspective to the hopeful Lib supporters.
http://possumcomitatus.files.wordpress.com/2007/11/allpollsnov231.jpg
Hawkey was hoping for a record [and he would know insider figures] the SMH tells us that the Nielsen 57/43 reflects more closely both the internal Lib and Labor polling than does the Galaxy…and really, the trend tells us that 54% is just about inevitable.
NOW if Howard had some fantastic news and press coverage and a really good last week…..hahaha…quite the opposite, he had a week that gave even faithfull liberal supporters a bad tasted in their mouth.
Even grannys are voting Green in the Senate and Labor.
I’m no poll expert, but it’s interesting to speculate as to the cause of a large shift (if indeed it exists).
I think there’s one message which has been hammered strongly by the Coalition, and not answered well enough by Labor: “they are full of slogans, but there’s no detail behind it”.
Everyone has heard the slogans a million times by now and I think they’ve over done it. In the last week they should have had more ads illustrating their plans in more detail (eg. all their education initiatives). My GF is a Labor supporter and she is completely unaware of most of the education package that Labor has put forward.
I’m still backing Labor to win, but I think they may have failed to lock in the undecided voters in the past week. Labor has a positive message, but I think some swinging voters are a little suspicious of the “spin” because Labor hasn’t emphasized the detail enough.
BTW, still predicting a comfortable Labor win.
Poss attempts to bring rigorous stastistical methods to bear on the polls. He has opinions which he supports by analysis. His analysis is the most convincing I’ve read.
Re 192,
L Says:
L, you need to understand that there are more issues driving our choice than work choices in this instance where Costello is concerned. While I can’t speak for Joffaboy’s reasons, I can share with you my own. I don’t like anyone in the coalition. I am a left leaning labor voter and in fact just today have changed my voting intention tomorrow from 1 ALP 2 Greens in the HOR to 1 Greens 2 ALP. Reason? – because Rudd scuttled the Republic in the short term in the Australian’s article this morning. While I hate the coalition with a passion, IF they were returned [won't happen though
] I would pray with everything inside of me for Howard to lose his seat and Costello to win as then we would HAVE a Republic. The Queen, as well as JWH, has passed her use-by date. Mind you, I grew up and lived in the USA for 43 years (have been here now for 3) and we ditched the monarchy there in 1776 
240 Grog – nice one – pass the sauce eh?
Mock me if you like but it seems Labor dropping in recent polls may be due to karma. There’s been alot of hubris on this website of a Labor victory. I laughed along with it, thought yeah that would be great. Now two polls in a row where Labor’s 2PP is 52% and their primaries I would assume are under 45%. Maybe you guys should stop talking up a Labor win. Karma may actually be a right wing bitch.
Digger killed in Afghanistan
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22808968-601,00.html
God Bless his Soul!
So….why are Galaxy and Newspoll right while ANC and Morgan are wrong??? There’s something fishy about those numbers. Why? Because the Galaxy and Newspoll figures are so at odds with all that has gone before – which makes them the most suspicious. Surely after the last few days there is no one in the country who would swich TO the Libs! I’m not even sure Howard will vote for himself after the past week of nonsense and shame. ALP to win in a thumping great walloping.
Of course the SMH are going to say party insiders say their poll is closer. They don’t want to seem silly straight off the bat.
Furthermore, we had someone on here stating the other night that Lib internal polling had the 2PP at just under 52% and 5 seats in it either way, but leaning more to the Libs. It seems at least possible that was legit.
This victory is just going to be all the sweeter due to the pain and agony suffered over the last few weeks due to these polls. Todays polls have caused torment which will be washed away in tears of relief at about 8.30 tomorrow night when Antony says the immortal words “I’m calling this election for Labor” and Kerry adds “Kevin Rudd will be the next Prime Minister of Australia”.
Ok, I’ll mock you Luke!
Yes, the newpoll has gone insane because of pollbludger comments.
a lot is two words
Was away for a while.
Last I heard was Glen predicting a 50/50 Newspoll and definite Coalition victory. Has this eventuated or was this just HUBRIS???
Looks like my prediction of 82 seats to the ALP is still alive, with Libs making a gain in Cowan. A comfortable enough majority to make the Chief Whip’s job bearable.
One way or another, SOMEONE, be it Galaxy/NewsPoll (close win), Mumble/Possum/Morgan/Jackman/all bookmakers (crushing win) or Nielsen (annihilation) is going to be enjoying a facio-cranial omelette on Sunday! Not that the bookmakers would care; they’ll handle the ruin of their reputation as election predictors by crying all the way to the bank.
Or maybe EVERYONE will be a fool, if the Unthinkable happens. I’ll be in Broome this time tomorrow afternoon so if it does happen I’ll just keep on flying north, instead of returning to Perth
If anyone thinks the last 11.5 years was bad, then contemplate vindicated/vengeful Howard, who values loyalty and unity above all else. But not too long, lest you want to get into a warm bath with a sharp razor.
Julie,
The entire Lib Party have been taken over by raving right-wing nutters…even Tip Costello has gone Hillsong on us.
So you might as well take the most union-friendly of the bunch.
Warringbah,
fair enough, was just curious. I am a political science academic and have only started reading this site recently and i just found it fascinating how many times he gets mentioned, that’s all
234,
“It was never going to be 56-44. Queensland and western Sydney are the key.”
They lost western Sydney with the antics in Lindsay this week (if they ever had it it the first place). Probably lots of other seats too when voters heard about that stunt.
i warned you. we will not see a labor government in this country for 20 years. john howard IS australia. he is australia’s just deserts. sad greedy little people. sad little backwater of a country.
Well, personally, I’m not worried. Labor will win.
If Newspoll’s right, by a few seats. If Neilsen’s right, by landslide.
I’m punting for the landslide myself, particularly after the Kelly Gang’s Lindsay capers earlier this week.
That’s gonna piss-off a whole lot of small “ls” in places like North Sydeny, Higgins and Ryan. So, the swing will go well beyond the marginals. WorkChoices will do the rest.
Say no more:
Bookie says Labor favoured to win easily – November 23, 2007 – 5:00PM – The Age
http://www.theage.com.au/news/National/Bookie-says-Labor-favoured-to-win-easily/2007/11/23/1195753295758.html
10PSE @ 244
Because Poss has ensured we don’t have a nervous break down every time many of us see the bogus polls that we have experienced this afternoon.
For me personally tomorrow is an enormous day for my future, the future of my kids and an end to the most disastrous page in this countries history since the Cook stuck the flag in.
Poss has done the hard yards to provide us the comfort that it all ends in 24 hours..or thereabouts.
And the SMH ACN Poll, may be proven correct and the lib internal polling is pure bullsh@t.
Neilbris – exactly. I never thought the LNP couldn’t come back (though think it very unlikely) but they would have had to have a great last week. They have not. Even that Sunday Tel woman on Sunrise this morning gave the week to Labor!
Can someone confirm for me the the newspoll on eleciton day last time was 50-50?
muk0le 264 give Howard some respect. He is a poor old bugger refusing to retire. It is sad to see an old man so deluded and being thrown on the scrap heap of history…
Francis – love the hockey character here
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H1lYCbjzQ4I
Brilliantly done as you say
Coalition into 3.85 on CanBet, Labor 1.29
Just to confirm- since we all hang on the words of the pollsters
If the Libs win tomorrow- all pollsters were wrong.
Of course sondeo. You can’t really take seriously anyone that comes to this site with internal polling. What would be the point of posting it on here?
Love this from Howard:
Mr Howard told The Daily Telegraph the Galaxy poll was “very interesting” and said: “I always said we could win.”
He said the people of western Sydney who delivered him victory in the 1996 election had made him believe victory could be his once more.
He really thinks western Sydney is going to deliver him the victory this time? Really?? Guess that’s why he rushed up to Cairns.
No. He deserves everything that’s coming to him.
Julie @ 250.
You didn’t drop the monarchy – you just replaced it with an elected one. As for ditching Rudd because of what you read in the GG….Good grief.
Possum is attempting to do what a quality MSM should do, instead of prognosticating on the precise political reason for a movement in a poll which is statistically expected anyway due to sampling error (e.g a 2% movement in Newspoll was due to Howard’s NT intervention). I think that if Possum’s analysis is vindicated by the election results (on Crikey he has forecast the 2PP to two decimal places and also a number of seats based on a non-uniform swing) he will become quite well known in the MSM (he is already well known online).
just a reminder that #pollbludger is active on austnet on irc. maybe it will save william a few $$ if everyone gets on and stops f5-ing as much
Ashley – of course the money is going to come for the LNP at this time. At $4.25 etc it’s just a reaction to the newspoll. So hardly “smart money”.
just what we need to kick the small undecided out of complacency. it will still be a landslide – Tories Gooooooooorn
IASBet, Sportingbet and Portlandbet all have L/NP on $3.85. But all that means is that there’s less attraction for me to burn spare cash plonking it down there.
276 spoken like a true prodigy – i was just trying to lift the spirits of poor old muk0le
BBDK 273 – exactly.
All of them.
All year.
Without exception.
Even up till the day before the election.
Elected Monarchy?
Now there’s an oxymoron.
Because as we all know there’s been absolutely no hubris from any conservatives on any other web sites. God chose to only punish the Lefties on this site.
Mark Riley on 7 news is going to release some “very interesting” internal party polling.
“Elected Monarchy”. That might be one of the planks of an Opportunity Society’s Aspirational Nationalism.
Listening to ABC PM show now it is completely undermining Howard’s claim that the peeps at the shops are giving him the love.
He will twist, distort and lie with chutzpah til the bitter end.
JHIAC
About as sad as seeing a rat being taken out with a piece of four by two
Can only be Lib polling showing they are coming back – Labor would have no interest in releasing its own polling, whether to show widening or tightening
why would they bother releasing the internal polling at this stage?
Today couldn’t have gone better for Rudd – any ALP waverers will be back on deck. No one in punterland will be taking the result for granted now.
Unlike me. An ALP victory is assured.
53.5 tomorrow. 85 seats.
Darn, above – I hear your fears (about Howard outspending Rudd) but note for example yesterdays Herald Sun. Most read paper in the country.
it had a promises breakdown for average two child family which had ALP =19k better off; LNP= 13k better off.
What Ashley? interesting internal polling that shows the public have observed the performance of the LNP this week and thought, yep, that’s the team for me?
Maxine at $2.10 with portland bet….thats the shortest i’ve seen. No wobbles there from the girl. You lads need to stay strong too.
If I told all the ALP supporters 12 months ago that on poll eve 2007 the ALP would have 2 polls saying 52/48 and another 2 saying 55/45 & 57/43 you would all be ecstatic. Instead there is just jaded dejection. Dare I suggest that some perspective might not go astray…?
Newspoll on election day in 2004 was 50:50
http://www.newspoll.com.au/image_uploads/cgi-lib.2613.1.1025_Final_Poll.pdf
O’Shannasy said this morning (just checked the recording) that Newspoll had changed their weighting to give more “weight” to regions in their polling.
So in the last week they change the sampling method? It may be the correct thing to do but it expains the change.
She was at $2 this morning.
261 L,
Again, while I would never vote for any of the pollies on that side of the aisle, I did remember too since I made the first post, that Turnbull of course is a Republican too. So he would be fine in my book too. Any Coalition pollie who was a Republican would pass muster in my book.
Has all four poling companies ever got the winning party result wrong in the same election before?
Guess they want to try and get any sort of momentum LTEP…
Sounds kind of wishful at this late stage.
ND, but Howard is like a creature from a horror movie that just refuses to be slayed…eg terminator 2 grabbing onto the back of the car
As other wise and sagacious people on this blog have noted these polls will perk up the desperate tory hordes just enough that they will feel even more keenly the hot poker up their arse on Sat night..
Victoria election ‘99 and Britain in ‘92 come to mind
Grog – yes Newspoll called the last election at 50/50. Splashed in big letters across the face of the GG it made sure they sold lots of papers – as was intended. Why own a pollster if they don’t assist with circulation?!
Ruawake – Im not at all surprised to hear that.
Interesting internal polling at this late stage – i could imagine perhaps 53-47 in bennelong? That would be interesting. I wonder if howard has a speech written for handing over to a victorious costello on election night.
Maybe one day it will be dug up, like the ‘in the event of a moon disaster’
It was just in the 7 news teaser on commercial radio.
I don’t think the liberal party f#$k ups this week are really going to bother a lot of the voters that actually count. I think the “slogan” line is beginning to bite. Even as a strong Labor supporter I cringe every time I hear ‘education revolution’ and ‘plan for the future’. It sounds so much better when they just list all the different things they are planning to do. People are suspicious of too much spin.
I would rather like to see the primaries from Newspoll. They had the ALP on 47% primaries when they put out that 53/47 a fortnight ago. If the polls have tightened 1 point on 2PP since then it is possible the Newspoll primary has the ALP on 45/46%, which is still historically high. Primary votes are also more reliable because they don’t depend on the pollseters arbitrary statistical modelling…
At this stage any money comming in on the LNP is a reaction to the newspoll – but is there much movement on individual seats?
Rodents spread disease time to exterminate, exterminate, exterminate.
Julie (at the risk of carrying on a personal conversation over PollBludger)…
Republics are all very well, but health care (particularly in Aboriginal areas), equitable education, fairness in the workplace, better refugee treatment, less denigration of the minorities among us all rate higher in my book.
Can’t see wealthy lawyers from Wentworth doing too much about a lot of those.
These late close polls may actually reflect (as well as MOE issues and method problems) that a few voters are saying “OK, Rudd’s clearly won, we want Howard gone, but we want to keep our sitting member, so we’ll vote Liberal now”.
If there is that element then the perception that it’s genuinely close will probably do Rudd no real harm at all.
Why is it considered bad form for Labor to express confidence, yet when the rodent says he can win, no one bats an eyelid?
Unless Lizzy falls under a bus in the next 3 years we aint becoming a Republic…..when she karks it we will!
I will be with you Ophup, my wife is adamant that a Howard win means we sell up and leave. She really hates him. Haha.
True we have 4 polls. You would have to follow the polls that were consistent with what has gone before. You can only accept Newspoll suddenly dipping to 52 in a week if you can find a specific cause. All the causes have been negative. AND Morgan’s ‘Reactor’ found that the LNP scare ads fairly ineffective.
No, large groups do not change in a short space of time with no significant reason.
The last time we had a large shift of voters was when Rudd took over. The undecideds break 2/1 in favour of the trend on average and, broke about 59/41 to Beazely in 2001 [and that was the 9/11 election!].
You wont get big numbers suddenly going to Howard unless you have a major attention catching event. The only events he has had have been negative ones and consistent negative news – Rudd has been getting positive news.
Thus you would most certainly have to discard the Newspoll and go with the Morgan and Nielsen indication that not much has changed.
Yes, if Labor’s primary is on 45 or 46 it is all over.
316, because the Rodent is the incumbent, and is behind in the polls
Possum is already well respected outside of blogs. I saw his analysis of interest rates vs Labor vote referred to in an Access Communications report of the election. This report in an independent report for multinationals etc to allow them to determine how the election and policies will affect them. He is big time.
Re 277,
Neilbris Says:
He will still get my vote. I am in a safe Labor seat. Matter of fact, in my polling booth, Latham got 1324 at the last election and the greens got 25. I am preferencing Labor.
There are those issues, different for each of us, that we must take a stand on and the Republic is one for me. Some people don’t make up their mind till the last minute, some don’t care, some like me care very deeply and are making their decisions based upon the governments record or the pollies themselves (”Do I like this man?” …..). I make my decision upon the issues that are important to me. Mind you, > 90% of the time, that coincides with Labor issues. When it doesn’t, then the Greens will get my vote parked there and Labor will get my preferences. My vote still goes to Labor anyways and I have made a moral choice in my own mind. Isn’t that what most of us voters who are lefties do anyways?
I would not be too concerned about the slogan jibe – name a major pollie who does not talk in soundbites?
The ‘working families’ line is driving me nuts. There should be a royal commission investigating its usage if the labor party lose. Heads should roll
Rx – because no one really believes him so its taken as just trying to rally the troops.
321, was Possum credited with it? Did Access use his Possum psuedonym?
By the way, in the UK in 1992 Labour only ever had a small lead, which the last few polls showed had changed to a lead to Major in the days before the election.
I need a Tabitha moment.
Before the election:
Rodent
Rudd
After the election:
Rodent
Rudd
Are you serious??? Wtf?
LOTS of money flying around online
CENTREBET: ALP $1.27 : L/NP $3.80
As a little distraction I thought I would show the state-by-state
changes in enrolments, compared to 2004:
ACT +4.9%
NSW +6.0%
NT +4.4%
Qld +5.5%
SA +2.3%
Tas +2.0%
Vic +4.0%
WA +5.3%
National +4.9%
So, demographic destiny says we should choose Rudd/Swan, whose
average population increase is greater than Howard/Costello! If you
throw in Foreign Ministers the choice becomes even more stark.
314 L,
No reason we can’t do both. Keating would have. You guys turfed him out and didn’t give him a chance to show you. He was heading that direction. I couldn’t vote in 1996.
It was reading about O’Shannasy’s tinkering with his weightings that made me want to see the primaries…. dare I suggest the reason News are hiding the primaries is because they still show a fairly big (eleciton winning) lead to Labor?
… assuming people want a distraction at the moment. Might help a few here …
Ruawake at 299 – what program did Martin O say that on?
326 Warringah- Yes they referred to him as Possum. I cant remember exactly what they said but it was something like the psephological pseudonymous Possum. And by the way, you can kill those horrible monsters. It’s called a Head Shot!
Mumble has insider info on the primaries – 44-43-7 (Greens)
I cant imagine what would have caused a collapse in Labor’s primary like that
If the polls are so close, why was JWH in Leichhardt today?
Don’t the libs hold that seat by a fair margin?
Why is he going through Qld today?
I’m confident now, but it is not a certainty anymore.
I still think Labor could win 90 seats, if it is around 54/46
14 Hours 19 minutes till polls open…..
Changing the weightings, that’s what
#275
Western Sydney is not that important to the Government, Queensland is. The Liberals only have Macarthur and maybe Greenway and Hughes (if they can be counted as part of Western Sydney) to defend there (but they are on comfortable Liberal margins). They lost Parramatta last time and written off retaining Lindsay.
On the other hand Queensland has a lot of seats that need to be defended, in spite of their big margins, because of Rudd Factor.
In other words this particular poll cannot be compared with its previous polls and we know how accurate it is. Why change at the last second?
Wouldn’t want them to be my accountants!
Tinkering with their weightings????
That would probably mean not so much the 2PP but how they come at the primary – i.e give weight to marginals over safe seats or some such nonsense. SOunds like hocus pocus.
Thanks God the election isn’t actually decided by the polls.
But it does show how hardit is to win from opposition (in a mental sense)
If the LNP were 52-48, it would hardly rate.
ALP is 52-48, and it’s all run for the hills!!!
It was on ABC Local Radio QLD.
But I don’t think he used the word “weight” he said they increased the sample taken in rural / regional areas to ensure a better representation of voters from that sector.
#304 like Rasputin
ruawake writes “O’Shannasy said this morning (just checked the recording) that Newspoll had changed their weighting to give more “weight” to regions in their polling.
So in the last week they change the sampling method? ”
If this is, indeed, the case then any change is almost certainly simply due to an increase in the Nat vote, rather than improvement in the Libs vote. As all but 2 of the most 30 marginal coalition seats are currently held by the Libs (Cowper and Page are the two exception). In other words, it is irrelevant to the result.
There have been recent occasions when a “high” coalition Newspoll has actually involved an INCREASE in the Nat vote, but a DECREASE in the Lib primary.
If we are looking at a change in the Country / City balance here then I suspect we are really seeing another manifestation of “no change” 54-55% lab / 45-46% Lib line.
Labor would still win comfortably on a 44 primary. It’s the 42.5 from Galaxy which is a massive collapse.
I can believe 44, not such a crazy change.
just saw a add on ten
“you thought u only had 2 choices?”
“The empire strikes back!!”
Gee i hope the empire (rodent) isnt starting to fight back
Possum
It was the interview with Madonna King on ABC 612 Radio Brissy.
The BIG problem with the Galaxy is that Family First have gone from Less than One Percent to 2.5 percent in the space of 16 days, and it has occurred at the expense of the Labor primary.
If the Labor primary drops that much in such a short period you’d expect some of it to go to the Greens. But to have it go to Family First seem suspicious.
I’m happy to accept the punters’ and bookies’ tips:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/bookies-tip-labor-win/2007/11/23/1195753272917.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap2
Weight of money 75% to Labor. Lasseter:
“We’re betting on 136 seats. Now the other 14 we’ve predicted as foregone conclusions and didn’t bother with them.
“Looking at those 136 seats plus the 14 and who is favoured and how it breaks down, we have 80 to Labor, 65 to the Coalition and the two independents stay where they are. But there’s still three in which we are offering $1.85 for a Labor win and the same for a Coalition win, making them currently equal favourites in those seats.
“The problem is that even when you add up those seats, you can’t come up with a Howard win.
“So what we’re desperately looking for is for some of those Labor candidates who have been backed, to not win. But, historically, the punters are normally on the mark.”
Simon Jackman now has expected seat count 81.98 Labor.
I’d be happy with a slim majority to Labor, but I’m sticking with 87 seats prediction. Let’s all relax. Vote early. Vote legally.
Julie,
I certainly voted for PJK…and would again if I’d ever been given the chance
Australia’s first true leader of the post-war period
When exactly will betting end? 6 PM eastern daylight saving time? i.e. once the votes start being counted?
“But I don’t think he used the word “weight” he said they increased the sample taken in rural / regional areas to ensure a better representation of voters from that sector.”
Whatever they changed it means the current poll is not usefull in making comparisons. I think what is being concealed here is an extra point on Libs and an extra point on Nats.
351 L,
GET Howard out at any cost
which is why we will get Rudd tomorrow, but OMG what I would give to have a PJK clone …… 
I narrowly missed out on a chance to meet him Tuesday of this week too. He was going to do a luncheon speech engagement for Mike Bailey in North Sydney and I was all fixed up to attend. It was cancelled at the last minute with no explanation given.
I know this may sound crazy but I believe it is possible that Labor could possibly win, even when taking into consideration the terrible polls just released. But it is of course only a tiny chance…LOL
Does anybody know when the betting markets close, or will they run all day tomorrow?
Sorry “weight” was my term – but they have changed the sample.
I agree. It may be more accurate, but it makes it hard to make fair comparisons against previous Newspolls.
I don’t understand why you would change your methodology in the final poll!?
Increase your sample to reduce the margin of error sure, that makes sense, but why would you change the ratio of people that you poll across demographics, or even across different states?
We find out if it was a good decision on Newspoll’s part tomorrow.
I think it will be too low. I think Labor will get 53.5 2pp, and 85 seats.
356,
I think I heard earlier this week that they stop accepting bets at 7am but I don’t remember for sure. Can someone confirm this?
Unfortunately I’m getting a sinking feeling again -just like I did the day before Latham’s defeat three years ago. I was confident of a Labor win previously but I now think it will go down to the wire -I think Labor will either just win or just fall short.
@Julie, cheers for that…it would make sense to close them early in the day. Will be interesting to see what happens overnight, I reckon the LNP will close on about $3.20 or so.
Relax, people, relax. Remember, quantitive polls are not predictive tools, they are indicative ones.
82 – 84 seats to the ALP by 11pm tomorrow night. A tick over 53% TPP.
But I do confess to a secret longing for Bennelong to fall….
ShowsON, you speak the truth. ALP losing votes to Family First? Yep, and Guy Sebastian will take over as lead singer of AC-DC next year as well…
My guess is 6 PM eastern daylight saving time.
After that time votes start being counted, and results come in which makes it easier for punters to judge the actual outcome.
I honestly believe that any referral to “plunges” now on the betting markets can be disregarded. Any money back to the L/NP will be ill informed cash being thrown around based upon Galaxy and Newspoll.
I’m pretty confident that there is enough expertise on Poll Bludger, albiet strongly left, but educated nonetheless, to make an educated assessment on the mood of the electorate.
EXACTLY what you said!
This bit of doubt thrown into the mix will make Labors comfortable win even sweeter
Thanks Rua
http://www.theage.com.au/news/National/Leaflets-stuffed-PMs-campaign–Beattie/2007/11/23/1195753297511.html
Betting closes tomorrow at 8am AEST on portland (basically they close when the ballot boxes open).
Simon Jackman is in the country and was just on ABC radio national. He was being sensible, listing stat MoE type reasons as to why ACN could be so divergent when compared to Galaxy & Newspoll. I was prepared to dismiss Galaxy but Newspoll makes me a little more uneasy. Not about Labor winning, because I still firmly believe that’s going to happen – people talking up a Coalition victory on 48% of the 2PP are drawing pretty long bows imho – but my prediction of 95 seats to the ALP is looking somewhat more ambitious than I thought it would be. We’ll all know in 26 or 7 hours from now.
I’m not sure what they mean by changing the weight of regions unless they mean polling more in the regions?
Changing your sampling technique the last poll of the election is weird really and, you cannot be sure of the veracity of your results until it is tested [tomorrow lol].
It doesn’t mean it is more accurate at all but may explain why they have shifted so suddenly and probably picked up a higher percentage of lib/nat voters? It is hard to know what the poll indicates. It is like a brand new pollster coming in with their very first poll.
All the more reason to look to the Morgan and Nielsen. Anyway will know how much Rudd wins be soon enough.
Primaries:
ACN 49+ / 39- (??)
Galaxy 42.5 / 42.5
Morgan 46.5 / 40
Newspoll 44 / 43 (??)
The galaxy result is weird. A LNP primary vote of 42.5 should see Labor on at least 44.
From these results you’d have to say that Galaxy has underestimated the Labor primary, which could be anything from 44 upwards. That’s a Labor win.
Get a grip, folks. No need to panic. First – Galaxy has consistently been providing the lowest estimates of Labor support. Second, as Possum Comitatus hints in an update to his latest post, Newspoll has a strange house effect when the ‘others’ vote hits 13 which results in the estimated preference flow being absurdly low for Labor – applying his figures would suggest that without this house effect you would get 53-47 tpp from the likely primaries. That is within error margin (2%) of 55-45. Newspoll at 57-43 is within its error margin of 55-45 as well. And don’t forget that Nielsen ran two polls (one online) that both got 57-43. Labor will win tomorrow with a post-WWII record vote (record for Labor, that is) in the vicinity of 55%. I’m still confident of over 90 seats. Less than 90 seats would be more of a surprise than cracking 100.
Remain calm. Proceed to your polling places and perform your civic duty.
Well, I just slapped $100 on the ALP. Easiest $28 I ever made.
Bring it. Bored now. Lets get voting Rodent out.
Sorry, that should be “Nielsen at 57-43″ in the midst of my comment #374.
Leftye:
where can you still get 1.28?
L ?
Keating Aus first true leader since the post war periond
Which war?
Was it involving shots fired in the locker ?
Ben Chifley seemed a good man for his times I would say.
ACN to be closet to the mark tomorrow and today.
Labour 56 TPP 95 seats
In previous elections, if you look through the final polls, it is pretty common for some of the pollsters to get the primary vote of one party correct, but screw up the other party. Don’t have the figures here but I think ShowsOn posted them yesterday.
Another thing that people seem to have overlooked is that Neilsen effectively had two polls, both of which had exactly the same 2pp result. So there have actually been 5 polls in the past 24 hours, 3 of which point to a landslide ALP win.
Asanque @ 377,
Centrebet at the moment.
Bahahaha. Oh my, so much angst and worry. I hope some of you are channelling this nervous energy actually campaigning for your chosen party/independent tomorrow!
ShowsOn – I always respect people who quote me!
Need to identify those key indicative seats that are going to tell us the directional result:
• ALP have 11 seats in the bag (Kingston, Bonner, Wakefield, Makin, Braddon, Paramatta, Hasluck, Bass, Lindsay, Moreton and Eden-Monaro)
• VIC: any seat that moves is a sign of a big ALP swing (Deakin, McMillan, Corangamite, La Trobe, Gippsland, McEwan) – more than 3/6 here should indicate a rout?
• QLD: Blair & Herbert should fall if ALP have any chance. It’s the 8+%’ers that are probably the best indicator of a landslide (Flynn, Forde, Leichardt, Longman, Petrie, Ryan)
• SA: The 3 SA potential seats (Boothby, Sturt, Lilley) probably an indicator of rout vs modest result?
• WA: Canning and Swan are HUGE if they swing Lib. Need to watch Canning & Stirling as well. Any net gain to Libs will be a big bump in the road to overcome.
• NSW: along with Qld is the key…
- Dobell and Page, I think, need to move to ALP or else they’re in big trouble
- Cowper, Gilmore, Paterson, Robertson are big determinants of comfort levels (if any)
- Wentworth & Bennelong – for obvious reasons. If Libs hang on to both, then worried about broader implications in NSW
- Nth Sydney – this should be close unless all the polls are wrong
Some polling would have other safer seats in play, but if they move then this isn’t going to be close at all?
Take the 11 as given (ALP at 71)? Of the others nominated:
• 8 Qld seats in play (unless we’re talking landslide elsewhere) – less than 3 is bad for ALP
• 3 SA seats – need at least 1. {Along with Qld should be enough}
• NSW seats (9 nominated) – less than 4 would be a disappointment. Not needed unless Libs gain in WA, or ALP can’t pull any of the seats in Qld
• Vic seats (6) – anything here is a bonus, might be needed to offset WA/Qld as above
• WA (2 ALP, 2 Lib) – net zero movement will be acceptable. Worst case +1 to Libs. Shouldn’t matter – if they end up mattering, then I think its good for JWH
10 of 28 possible net gain gets them >80, 5 enough to form govt. They have to win 5. All 28 = 99 seats for ALP!!!
NSW/Qld exit polling will probably tell us by 7pm if it’s a wipeout or a cliffhanger. If the latter, its going to be a long night!!
lefty e at 375. you should have waited. the way the market is going the alp will be over 1.50 later this evening
I agree that the Newspoll and Galaxy results seem off to me. Although AC Nielsen’s result overstates the ALP’s position slightly, the other two seem totally counterintuitive.
The government is dead. The smell of death is in the air across the country, and I expect my initial prediction of 85-63-2 is slightly under what is probably going to happen.
ShowsOn says:
I don’t understand why you would change your methodology in the final poll!?
The only reason that I can think of is to get a “headline” figure that looks “tighter”, ShowsOn. Votes in the “Nat” seats in regional areas, for the most part are irrelevant in this election. All but Page and Cowper of the Coalition’s 30 most marginal seats are held by the Libs.
It is really VERY, VERY cheeky of Newspoll and means that any talk about “narrowing” should be taken with a grain of salt. One might almost think they were trying to create a ‘bandwagon” effect. Just about as dirty as the Kelly gang really.
I’ll stick with the 54-55% ALP 45-46% figure, thank you very much.
Sorry – in WA meant Cowan and Swan
The polled 2614 on 23 November????? Is that doable?
Sorry, that should have ben “I’ll stick with the 54-55% ALP 45-46% Coalition figure, thank you very much.”
I’ve already voted…does that mean I can start drinking? ooohh, could be a big weekend!
I fear it this will be one motion that will need endorsement, for the wife…she already knows it’s going to be an ugly day in downtown Nadi!
I know history doesn’t necessarily give you an indication as to what may happen tomorrow but it is interesting to note that at this stage of the election campaign polling conducted by Newspoll and ACN in the 2004 and 1998 campaigns, ACN was closer to the TPP by a long way.
Labor figures first – 1998 election: TPP was 51 -49. NP – 53 -47, ACN – 50 -50.
2004 election: TPP was 47 -53. NP – 50 -50, ACN – 46 -54.
I think there is something in that for all of us, don’t you?
K Jin @ 378 ,
Chifley was good, but not great. The bank nationalisation stuff saw to that in my view. For the most part he merely administrated an existing agenda, albeit extremely well.
Hawke could have and should have been great, but his best years, the most forceful and articulate years, came before his ascent to the Lodge. Mind you, he pissed 90% of the time in those days, so it would have been a pretty drunked reign.
Whitlam reformed the ALP and made it electable, and then nearly made it unelectable again. Fraser was a moneyed, third-rate toff, Holt, Gorton and McMahon all risible (Gorton slightly less so at times) and Menzies a patrician joke who aspired to statesmanship but hardly acheived mediocrity.
That leaves Keating… 5 years of true leadership that the country didn’t deserve and couldn’t appreciate.
Re #384
Expat Follower, you might want to include Solomon in the NT as a likely gain for Labor.
Oakes on naarn-nooz:
Poll confusion reigns
He said last night before today’s polls were release that ’senior liberals had given up’.
They have history doing this, last election it was a 0.5 shift making the final poll 50/50.
But wouldn’t they get more credit for being ACCURATE rather than showing a close result?
Anyone catch 7 news? What about the internal polling?
Shcrift at 394 – you are absolutely right, forgot all about poor NT!
Sporting bet, it was. Might have been 1.27 actually.
OK it is all starting to make sense. Newspoll have made a change in the way they sample and we have this comment at possums site:
Which also will skew the overall result. The WA result is obviously not right but it will also certainly help to muck up this particular poll.
They might have to do another one!
I still think Labor will win, but as I have been saying for months now poor candidate selection (the LabCest) is a big time issue in Labor. How sad will some of the Labor people on this site be if it costs you the election in a squeaker.
Does anybody think in a close election there will be a personal vote for the Labor candidate in:
Robertson
Dobell
Deakin
Hasluck
Braddon ?
Also not rebutting a negative campaign always costs. Not rebutting the union scare campaign has had a cost.
If it is a loss how soon after Saturday will Gartrell walk the plank?
Grog @ 312…
Some seat movement
http://betelection.com/elections/
If we lose, Gatrell resigns Sunday.
Much as my personal opinion of her is low, there might be something of a personal vote for Sharryn Jackson in Hasluck. Her recognition is extremely high there.
Are they trying to halt a masacre?
Just saw both the PM and Krudd on the news. Mr Howard was energetic, fresh, and confident. Krudd looked flat, pale, and tired. There was also something wrong with his left eye, something I’ve noticed on previous occasions when he’s been under pressure.
A telltale sign. Your words may deceive, Krudd, but your body’s giving you away.
OK it is all starting to make sense. Newspoll have made a change in the way they sample and we have this comment at possums site:
“A little birdy told me: Newspoll surveyed 397 voters in WA and recorded primary votes of 50% for Coalition and 37% ALP – a 6% turnaround. TPP is 56-44.”
Which also will skew the overall result. The WA result is obviously not right but it will also certainly help to muck up this particular poll.
They might have to do another one!
This means Howard is going to look energetic in retirement.
What was the internal polling on channel 7 ? Please.
ACN was apparently 48 – 40 on primaries… (I assume this has been posted previously, but I missed it).
The Doors of Perception 57-43
The Jaws of Deception 52-48
Kina, that does help explain things. Means its about 53-47 back here. Enough to cover a coupla WA losses if it comes to that!
Easy money to be made on the ALP punters – get in while you can!
Sportingbet has Maxine closing from $2.20 to $2.10.
Rodnet out from $1.58 to $1.65
Shortest odds ever for Maxine, so there’s a narrowing alright, but not the type the squatter at K House would like to see.
I think we can safely discount AC Nielsen (and independents like Dave from Albury being sampled). The Goldstein factor is also a non-starter too.
9 News said that for Jews in Wentworth like the candidate himself, Newhouse, they can not vote tommorrow as Saturday is their Sabbath. Wentworth has a large Jewish population. They will have voted pre-poll and postal votes. That means if Wentworth comes down to the wire, that we will NOT know the result on Saturday night. It might take several days for those other votes to be counted.
Agree, great chance to get on before the price bubble bursts!!
steven Kaye,
About this time tomorrow that will be ‘Prime Minister Elect KRudd’ to you.
labor back out to 1.30 at canbet
Paul K,
Do you agree with my sentiments in 401?
Heard on Nine News, Morgan is showing Labor lead of 9 points. By my calculations that’d be 55.5-45.5.
What so you do now? Average them all out?
Never mind folks, only one more day of anxiety. Comfy win for Labor.
I had 90 in the PB sweep. I think it may come in more, but I’ll stick by it.
# 403, ICWFFZ
Stop that silly talk, and repeat after me:
Nantucket sleigh ride, the Rodent is getting a right royal Nantucket sleigh ride
L says:
“I certainly voted for PJK…and would again if I’d ever been given the chance
Australia’s first true leader of the post-war period”
I guess you weren’t around in the late 60’s early 70’s, L.
I posted the following on Andrew Bolt’s blog today, after he had yet another gratuitous go at Gough:
“Andrew, I’m intrigued by the special vitriol that you often save for Whitlam.
You were just 13 when Whitlam came to power and had just turned 16 when he left. You didn’t experience the same mindblowing issues of facing conscription to fight in what most of us saw as an unjust war; of a declining, elitist, “two tier” education system in which the wealthy regarded a university education as a right but which most, even in the “middle class”, saw as something beyond their means even when it was well within their abilities ( it is worth remembering that it was Whitlam who introduced needs based funding for private schools – before that they essentially received nothing); of a health system that denied access to many of those who needed it most, and so forth.
You also ignore the huge task economically that Whitlam faced after years of structural neglect by Menzies and his followers.
It was Whitlam who began the process of giving Australia a place in the modern international economic world. It was Whitlam, for example, who began the process of breaking down the massive tariff barriers that Australia lived behind at that time. He did so, unfortunately, at a time when international commodity prices collapsed and the 1973 oil crisis reared its head, which made the transition much harder than it would otherwise have been, but the dangers for Australia in NOT making these changes were already beginning to rear their head during the last decade of the previous conservative government.
Whitlam did try to do too much too quickly, but the need was very pressing in many, many areas. Without the reforms which he introduced who knows when, or whether, Australia would have begun to take a meaningful place as a modern independent nation in the modern world?
Yes, Keating was underestimated by many, but Whitlam’s victory in ‘72 was far, far more important to Australia being what it is today than most people realise.
Cheers
Rod
ALP @ $1.25 on Sportsbet..interestingly McKew is solid at $2.00
If Labor loses, it will be because:
1) Labor/Union connection is seen as out-of-date
2) People like to blood leaders, they like Rudd but want to be sure, ie 2010
3) Economy is just too strong
4) People dont trust Labor with the economy
Centrebet 128 370, Sportingbet 1.27 3.85, Portlandbet 128 3.72
If Newspoll have changed their polling methodology then that is very suspect. It means that a comparison with earlier Newspolls is useless. Are they professionals or not, surely a change in their last polls methodology is weird.
Lucky you don’t do maths as a job then!
I think they must have been referring to the 54.5-45.5 Morgan phone poll from earlier today.
Goddammit…. absolute work free zone around here again today. Thank god this is all over after tomorrow cause I am getting absolutely f$%king nothing done!!
Everyone calm down, the green vote has gone up; now let me look who are the greens preferencing.
To be honest I am thinking of voting 1 greens so they get the $2.xx dollars and preferencing labor so we get a decent government.
#406 [Krudd looked flat, pale, and tired.] LOL!
Steven, maybe it’s that shine on the glass jaw you fellers have kept rabbiting on about.
In that case I won’t vote for him. I hear he shakes hands like a girl too.
Seems to me AC Nielsen might actually be getting close even with moe. Supported by Morgan and we know the Newspoll is a damaged poll due to bad sampling in WA [and possibly elsewhere].
Is this an attempt to stop a masacre – has it really blown out to 54++?
I think we can safely ditch the latest Newspoll and look to their previous ones.
Time to go.
Zai4 Jian4 peng you
Ashley
I’m with you – this election is killing productivity ’round here.
Possum, as always, has light to cast:
The problem when Newspoll gets the number 13 for the minors is that they end up distributing preferences 53.8% rather than 61.x% (which is their 2004 prefs distribution target) to the ALP regardless of the size of the Greens vote. As a result, rounding issues compound realistic preference flows from the Greens to give an underestimate of the ALP TPP vote. That happened when Newspoll had the ALP at 53 a few weeks ago, before the rate rise and I said watch it bounce back next poll – which it did. That’s a house issue Newspoll has – they’re allergic to the number 13 in the minor party vote total.
….
UPDATE :
Mr Mumbles hears that the primaries are 44/43 to the Coalition with 7 Greens and 6 others.
7+6 = the dreaded 13.
Hang on, it ain that – Possum again
“Grooski, 13 isnt the problem this time as they’ve actually slightly overdone the prefs rather than underdone. It’s the pump up of the regional sample that looks to have changed the numbers. It will be interesting to see whether it plays out for them. I’m not of the mind that it will.” (Possum)
Possum was also predicting Higgins, Kooyong and Goldstein to fall.
Steven Kaye Says: “Just saw both the PM and Krudd on the news. Mr Howard was energetic, fresh, and confident. Krudd looked flat, pale, and tired. There was also something wrong with his left eye, something I’ve noticed on previous occasions when he’s been under pressure.”
I also just saw the Rodent and Rudd on the news. The Rat looked like a racist red-neck, mean-spirited and full of piss-n-wind. Rudd looked like a Prime Minister in the waiting, ready to lead this country out of the cesspool of ugliness the Liberals have slowly pushed us into.
So no one caught 7 news???
52 to ALP would be a swing of around 5%. In historical terms that is very signicant – a real rebuff to an incumbent. What is so strange about this year has been the inflated expectations Rudd has generated, and the absence of any analysis of the absurdity of a voting system that would not give the leading party a guaranteed, modest majority with such a relatively clear margin. Even the US electoral college does better than this.
I hear Channel 7 have “Exit polls” anyone know the deal with them and if anyone here will be “leaking” a few early ones our way tomorrow?
Rod @ 423
Thanks, you’ve just reminded me why many of us are here, and why we will be celebrating on Saturday night.
(Even if I have to get the truck out on Sunday for the big eviction!)
Lefty E – it’s a bit more complicated than that – this time they’ve actually overpreffed the ALP (that it was in the next update) a little by the looks of it after the rounding – the issue is the regional sampling pump. It makes sense now.
Business as usual.
Edward,
I still say Labor by a minimum of 80 seats regardless of what you think of their candidates. Both parties have their share of hopeless hacks, has beens and hangers on. I can tell you the Pollies I’ve met in person from both sides haven’t much excited me. God, if Dolly Downer can keep getting elected how much effect does a local candidate really have?
Laurie Oakes on Nine News said the Liberals were quite pessimistic and about ready to give up BEFORE THE NEWSPOLL CAME OUT. Right now, everyone is confused, according to Mr Oakes.
Possum was doing no such thing Eddie, I pointed out that the Newspoll data was suggesting those seats would fall a while back, using the state breakdowns, and the seat category swings.
Paul K,
The proverbial monkey can win in a safe seat. They do matter in tight finishes in marginals. Thats were it might bite Labor on the backside. Ironic if it does.
If I have a channel 7 exit poller ask me who I voted for I will tell them I voted for “David Koch is w*nker”
Possum
What do you mean by business as usual?
ABC Bias
tis morning i rang local radio (92.5) to complain about some old weezer on the phone trying to extort my coat or vote -wasnt sure these perverts always muffle their voices- anyway the studio said that i could expect more of them and hung up
WTF
ESJ #402
I really think Hasluck & Braddon are gone.
Lab cannot have less than 71 seats.
Another 29 realistic net gains possible (to take them to 100)
Qld/NSW comprise 17 of those 29. ALP need >5 and should get them there.
12 more thru Vic, WA, SA and NT (thanks Schf). 0 for 12 would be unlikely!
At most confident of times, thinking 13-15 of the 29 will deliver an ALP count of 85 or so, but low 80s the most likely bet?
Well, what’s their internal polling telling them? Hmmm…
We’re confused too, so for once everyone’s in the same boat.
Ch 9 has some show with Ray Martin and Tracey Grimshaw. She described him as “Mr Election”. Went right to the Newspoll result. We can vote live! From our lounge rooms. I hate this stuff and am terrified that the election will be decided by people who don’t care about the result.
Whoops! Thanks for that Ashley. Lousy maths, I agree. Still, I’ll take 54.5.
Hey Edward, while we’re both around. About The Senator and Droogs. It sounds like he might have started in the dens of Sussex Street and the NSW Right if Droogs were his thing. I assume he ‘turned’ (or ’saw the light’) at some later stage, a la Sir Les Patterson.
I always suspected that Howard’s role model was not Thatcher, Menzies or Reagan or Rove, but Richardson. Perhaps that explains a bit about The Senator’s machinations. I do hope the trail on the Kelly Gang doesn’t lead back to The senator’s desk.
Beautifully written, Expat Follower.
Even if you throw in Solomon to make it 12 ‘gimmes’, the fact is that Labor needs to win some (near-enough-to) 50/50s to form Government. The good news for them is that there’s somewhere around 20 line-ball contests, and they only must win 3 or 4. Massively optimistic Labor fans proclaim they’ll win all of them, plus some shock results on top. The Coalition supporters (or Labor pessimists) say that they could win only a couple, offset by a shock failure in one or two of the ’should wins’ and a loss or two in WA.
My 5c worth: to govern comfortably (i.e. do more than squeak home by one or two seats), Labor needs to win something(s) in Victoria.
Labor will not win anything in SA beyond the 3 in-the-bag seats.
The NSW and Qld seats, of those not in the ‘in-the-bag’ category, all have their problems. As far as Qld is concerned, you don’t want to be relying on getting 8%+ swings in particular seats to form government.
Cowper and Gilmore are science fiction as possible Labor gains IMO. Paterson and Robertson have better demographics to give hope as outlier ‘when the swing’s on, some big ones will go’ seats; but again, you shouldn’t have to rely on those unexpected big gains to form Gov’t.
Libs to hold Bennelong and Wentworth. 2PPs from 2004, adjusted for redistributions, can be misleading of themselves: Labor’s historic primary votes in both Bennelong and Wentworth have been pathetic, and the redistributions in both seats haven’t been extensive enough to change that in any profound way.
If you look at the betting markets, all 5 or so of the Victorian target seats are near enough to a toss of the coin. Chances that Howard could hang on in his own right might be infinitesimal; but the chances that he might force Katter and Windsor to jump one way or t’other, could depend on whether the old stager can win 5 coin tosses in a row.
Galaxy has been riding shotgun for GG Newspoll all year and in particular this ‘renovated’ Sham-I-am Newspoll. Wot CanberraBoy said above…& 55 all year same on Saturday.
Money now for Max…
Who is the person here who knows the Liberal staffer? Maybe he could give us an update later!
I think my prediction of 79 seats for Labor is looking good.
I think that is Voter Boy Over the Water who knowss the Lib staffer.
I hear serious claims here that newspoll have changed their methods for this latest poll- is there any evidence of that anywhere?
Expat
It seems to me:
WA will be 0 or +1 for Liberal
SA +3 Labor
Tas +2 Labor
NT +1 Labor
Vic +1 Labor (just because they should get 1 with a 5% swing)
They will need 5 in NSW and 5 in QLD
If the swing is on Labor will do it, if it is at the 6-7% level in QLD and 5% in NSW it will come down to the campaign in the actual seat. That’s how Labor may still lose.
I was debating whether to record Channel 9’s election special because I always record pre-election highlights/debates/specials and things like that. But I think my initial decision not to record was probably well-advised -it looks amateurish, gimmicky, cliched and predictable with nothing of value to be gained from watching. I actually have begun to like Ray Martin but I can’t stand Tracey Grimshaw. Think I’m going to give this one a miss
Edward,
Maybe Dolly was a bad example but I still think you exaggerate the influence of “unionists”, etc. If Labor loses it won’t be because their candidates weren’t up to scratch.
ESJ: Labor don’t have a mortgage on bad candidates.
Jackie Kelly, Dana Vaille and that dope down in La Trobe come to mind.
VoterBoy over the Water
Ring Your Mate!!!!! Please!!!!!
We need to hear it. So we can get some sleep tonight!
Door knocker – if they have made the regions a larger proportion of the sample, then the Coalition vote will be higher. That would explain what is actually a very very unusual poll result.
The question comes down to whether the rural and regional sample used is a higher proportion of the broader electorate sample than it used to be. If it is, the poll numbers are reporting nothing new – they’ve just been knocked down a bit as a result of the increased non-metro poll sample. That then begs the question of whether the previous newspolls were wrong because the composition of their sample was wrong.
Hopefully tomorrow they might explain it.
Their own polling must be very, very bad. Amazing how people keep trying to read so much into a single poll. It’s the trends ffs!!!
Kina, if you’re right about the WA result for this Newspoll, I calculate that the TPP for the rest of Australia is about 53.4/46.6:
LNP TPP = ((2614*48)-(397*56))/(2614-397) = 46.6
Still is far too close for comfort, though, and doesn’t make much sense in terms of ACN.
Of course, at this point it is worth remembering that 50% of the voting public are below average intelligence …
Just had fun on Antony’s calculator getting the ALP over the line with 76 seats and on 51.3% 2PP.
It’s quite easy to do. Even with SA, WA, Vic and QLD with ALP <50% 2PP I got the ALP a win (54.5% in NSW – Thanks Jackie Kelly)
Bring it on, is all I have to say.
The uncertainty will make it all that much sweeter if Labor do win.
The date of polling according to Oz was 23rd; sample size 2614. Can someone enlighten me please: is this doable?
Actually scratch that I played around some more – I got the ALP 2PP to 50.9%
Possum, I noted your comment on your own site, indicating that Newspoll has increased the number of rural/regional respondents for this poll. If so, wouldn’t this compromise the random sampling method? In effect, isn’t it similar to over-sampling marginal seats?
462 Howard Hater
The Senator generally tries to avoid the uncouth rough types of the angry tradesmen variety but he finds they go down a treat with the aspirationals.
Don, he prides himself on not believing in anything other than personal power.
Sorry, Kina. The Newspoll will also show a swing away from Labor in Queensland.
469- it was actually 20th/21th/22nd according to Shanahan
Just got back on line. Can anyone tell me if Possum has given any kind of a summary of what he believes the latest poll results are telling us.
If not – Possum, any chance you could do that please? We lesser mortals always appreciate a bit of professional help in interpreting these things.
Either way, one polling companys reputation will be burned tomorrow night. Funny how Morgan is now in the middle.
Steven Kaye. Yep Rudd will never be as popular as Latham in QLD.
Sorry S.Kaye, the “actual” poll will show a swing to the ALP. Mr Rudd will defeat the lying, divisive, mean and nasty little thing called John Howard and will be PM tomorrow night.
It smells to me like Newspoll trying to artifically create a supposed swing back to Howard by oversampling National Party strong regional areas and including more figures from WA. Possum and other qualified psephologists, could I be right about this?
Simon H thx for your comments. Make a lot of sense.
ESJ – if you accept my ‘11 in the bag’ premise (3 SA, 2 Qld, 3 NSW, 2 Tas, 1 WA) – which you do with respect to SA & Tas at least, then the ALP need a net gain of 5 more seats out of the remaining 29 around the country.
You’re more bullish than me to give Solomon to them already!!
WA could go -2 (Cowan & Swan), which means they must win 7 rather than 5. (6 not including Solomon). Personally, -2 in WA (or net -1 after Hasluck), is worst case – but will accept that as reasonably likely.
Agree NSW & Qld will determine it. Bonus is anything in Vic plus the 3 others in SA (you don’t give them a chance in Boothby, Sturt & Lilley).
But you are right – if NSW/Qld don’t deliver out of the 17 seats nominated, then ALP lose.
Think this is unlikely (as do you) – but not impossible.
By 6:30 or 7, the NSW/Qld exit polls should at least tell us if its a rout. If not, then we’re going to have a lot of fun watching for hrs and hrs…
479
I understand the polling companies use weighting based on regions and age groups and other things.
Steven Kaye Says:
November 23rd, 2007 at 6:43 pm
Sorry, Kina. The Newspoll will also show a swing away from Labor in Queensland.
I will bet almost anything that there is a swing to labor even in the Newspoll never mind the election in Queensland.
I think Newspoll/shannnna are saying that the swing is not as strong in QLD as in the last poll.
Rudd is the New Wally ! The New King of Lang Park tomorrow night !
TPP 56 seats 95
Trendlines still has Labor at about 88 seats.
480: Labor won’t be losing Lilley.
Howard was in Leichardt today(10% margin)
Rudd was in Dickson today(10% margin)
Both of their internal polling doesn’t seem to be agreeing with Newspoll or Galaxy.
Blindoptimist says: Possum, I noted your comment on your own site, indicating that Newspoll has increased the number of rural/regional respondents for this poll. If so, wouldn’t this compromise the random sampling method? In effect, isn’t it similar to over-sampling marginal seats?
Yes, blindoptimist, unless they, and ACN, and Morgan, have all been UNDERSAMPLING rural seats all the rest of the time.
I know which answer I think is most likely!
Cheers
Rod
All the momentum (according to news reports) is with the coalition. They are reporting 52/48 as Howard on the verge of snatching another come from behind victory (even had grabs of Howard claiming that he could sense that he was coming back) Is there such a thing as a bandwagon effect? They seem to ignore that Howard is still behind.
If not a rout, and I think its less likely than more likely – then following a comment of yours from another thread, ESJ, I thoroughly agree that Libs should turn to Turnbull rather than Costello and create a moderate vibe.
With a smallish majority, if Rudd disappoints or circumstances work against the ALP govt, then I think a mod Lib party can definitely win in 2010…
If either a rout or Costello getting it or Turnbull losing Wentworth, then obviously the ALP is better off
Big Blind Door Knocker and HH, the issue is that someone heard on the radio today that Newspoll had oversampled rural electorates, which means a boost to the National vote (and hence the Coalition vote in the final 2PP result). Considering that there’s only two National seats that are really in play (Page and to a lesser extent, Flynn) this inflation in the National and Coalition 2PP vote is artificial.
Ta #474; does that mean no full effect from Kellygate?
Yes pretty hard to see Lilley going down. I have been in Clayfield and Hamilton a lot in the last few weeks and there are nearly as many Swan posters in those oldmoney suburbs as for the Lib Guy.
I admire the folks who live in huge 10 to 15 rooms houses with Swan posters out the front they must be hated by a lot of the Locals
I listened to AM and the world at noon on ABC radio today. Government spokepeople were sh*t scared. I don’t think they’re confident at all. I agree, the movements of the leaders aare telling. It must be on.
It seems Morgan’s face to face poll tomorrow is going to show 55.5/45.5, which would be consistent with their phone poll results today of 54.5/45.5. (their face to face polls are always a little bit better for Labor)
This puts them right in the middle of Nielsen on the one hand and Galaxy and Newspoll on the other. What a pisser it would be if they turned out to be the right ones – after all the nasty things we’ve said about them this year.
To be fair, ESJ, maybe you were not advocating a moderate vibe – rather a changing of the guard for its own sake. Just wishful thinking on my part that you would agree a moderate Lib party would be a good thing – perhaps !!
This means that Newspoll is trying to mess with everyone’s heads and sell more papers, and if you want to insinuate it, alter the election result by having an atention grabbing headline which has Howand coming back. Let’s hope they’re badly wrong.
ducko – most people don’t know there is even “momentum”.
Momentum in the last week yes. If it was 50-50 all campaign, then yes. But momentum in the last 6 hours? Momentum to do what?
I should remind everyone that according to Galaxy 62% of the electorate would wonder what we are bothering as they think the ALP will win.
That stupid show on 9 is “home polling” by SMS. It showed 65-35 for Abbot against Roxon and 65-35 for Turnbull against Garrett. Hockey’s on now. Gillard was described as “Labor’s answer to girl power” why do I put myself through this stuff
The result of those polls is that 100% of people polled like handing over money to Channel 9.
I’m sticking with the ACN prediction, something fishy about Newspoll and Galaxy if you look at their timing, how very convenient!
495 Nick – On recent past elections chances are they are wrong.
So let me try and summarise here cause I think both sides need a bit of a kick up the bum: Labor supporters, STOP worrying, Liberal supporters keep clutching at the Newspoll/Galaxy straws that have been flung at you.
Let’s look at the week:
1. NOTHING policy wise happened. Nada. Nothing for even the marginals, and especially nothing for swinging voters to get excited about.
2. The Liberal Party had a disastrous week campaigning – no need to re-list them all here, but think instead “what was something really positive about the Liberals I can remember in the last week” – um, nada again? I think so.
3. Suddenly we have two polls that show a 52 instead of the usual 54-55 for TPP for Labor. WTF? If 1 and 2 are true (which they are) what suddenly changed so hundreds of thousands of voter’s minds? The BS narrowing? The BS on all those undecideds in the last 1-2 days? I don’t think see.
Putting to one side the Galaxy poll (reasons? where do I begin?!), which leaves us with a sudden large movement in TPP to the Libs in the Newspoll. We are starting to hear that Newspoll has added more regional voter sampling in this final poll… WTF? Why? Not why have they done this politically (although we all know the answer) but why have they done this from a polling/statistical point of view? Anyone? Hmmm, doesn’t make sense does it.
They’re [Newspoll] trying to achieve a lot with this strategy – assist Howard politically and hopefully remain within the MoE, which looks like they’ll fail both. If this poll somehow manages to move some voters back to the coalition and the result is closer to 53 TPP for Labor tomorrow then at least they’ll look like they still have a respectable outfit… even if it means the rodent loses. If this doesn’t happen, then boy, will they have played the worst hand of all-in poker of all time.
The different sampling methods being used must introduce questions about the utility of the reported results. This makes me wish i had paid a lot more attention to stats when i had the chance. Anyway, considering the strong pro-labor swings are in States where they can win lots of seats, even 52% will be easily enough to defeat the coalition. I am not alarmed (yet) but am intrigued!
Basil, I think that Newspoll is O’Reilly and AC Neilsen is Stubbs
Grog – to imply that Howard is finishing with a wet sail. That this superman is coming from nowhere to win the unwinnable. Only Howard can do this!!! Of course it’s all crap & will amount to nought but this is what they are trying to do?
498 ShowsOn – the young Libs in full swing.
I’ve hardly been a nervous nellie during the campaign, until this newspoll came out. I know it is totally irrational .. unfortunately as a union official I don’t want to be up a wall and shot if howard gets back in
Here’s something to do while you wait for tomorrow’s Oz
Use the newspoll state by state breakdowns.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=state&national=0&nsw=7.9&vic=7&qld=11.1&wa=5.4&sa=9.4&tas=5&act=5&nt=5&retiringfactor=1.5
Move the sliders according to what we know – QLD and WA are less of a swing.
Move them all till you get a pretty realistic looking state by state that comes to a national 52%, and see if you have the ALP losing.
Or see if you have the ALP getting about 79-80 seats….
But ducko to what end? There’s nothing left to do. No ads, no anyhting really. You think peope whose vote is undecided at this point first thing get up in the morning and read The Oz?
RGee @ 506 see my post above. Stop being nervous.
On a 2pp basis 87% of Labor voters
pronounce Edward StJohn’s surname as ‘Saint John’.
In the marginals, 60% were not aware he would prefer ’sin-gin’.
The other 27% were aware, but just said it that way to piss him off.
Now I gotta cook dinner – back soon to read through the hundreds of posts I’ll miss
ESJ, regarding Neilsen versus Newspoll accuracy:
I was polled in this Newspoll sample and said I was going to vote Liberal. I didn’t want people sticking with the Libs to avoid a landslide.
lol JFC.
I thought the other 27% knew but think it sounds wanky.
LOL JFC
Expat Follower – Labor may really be crying in this state (NSW) about Dobell and Robertson. If you know the candidates, one has lost previously the other came from Melbourne you will know why
K JIn – I think in QLD a 6% swing gives 2 or 3 seats. Not enough
Maybe JWH is right, you cant fatten the pig on market day?
Still if the election is to be won it is in NSW and QLD.
rod @ 486…
…
Thanks for confirming this for me. I also think it is very unlikely that the pollsters routinely under-sample regional voters. This would invalidate many years of data. But I can see why they might want to publish a ‘too-close-to-call’ result on election-eve.
Obviously, what we need is a long-run data series that is collected, validated and presented in a completely consistent way every time. Sounds like ACN, maybe? We will see soon enough!
In a way, it’s good that the 52/48 occurred once the Tele and Oz had already made up their editorial minds. Can you see the Oz ediotorialising for Rudd if they had the 52 Newspoll. They are trying to pick a winner.
Just looking at the odds in the safe liberal seat of Ryan, Labor has shortened today into the lowest price since betting on the seat began, now @ $2.25, I got set a week or so ago @ $3.05, the narrowing, the narrowing.
Dave from Albury 512 -
People like you are why you have to be suspect about the polls!
Insiders has been averaging the four major polls each week throughout the campaign and the 2pp average hadn’t moved from the range of 54/46 – 55/45 up until last Sunday. Now that we have the final figures from all four this week, guess what the average is – 54/46. Still unchanged.
As far as the primaries are concerned, from memory the average was about 46/47 for Labour and 41 the coalition up to last Sunday. This week it is 45/41.
Not sure what to make of all that, but there doesn’t seem to be any reason to leap to the conclusion that Galaxy and Newspoll are automatically right. Nor is there any reason to believe that the 2pp will be any less than 52/48 tomorrow.
That stupid show had Hockey at 68 over Gillard 32. All these results are the exact inverse of the studio polling. What a joke.
RGee,
Maybe you can be “retrained” in an Australian Technical College?
O bretheren, have faith, for the messiah Rudd is at hand. That does not apply to the exclusive variety though.
52 wtf?
See this is why pollbludger is so good. My wife came in and told me there was some election show on Channel Nine. And I was able to tell her without having to get up and have a look that it was cr*p.
That’s polling you can take to the bank my friends.
HEY! HEY!
Bro’ just rang me to say Nicole Cornes doing a walkthrough at the Esplanade Pub, Brighton, South Oz. (Boothby)
All the boys gave their votes!!!
#507 – using the swing calculator I can’t even get it down to 52 using realistic numbers :S Unless Queensland goes 50-50 TPP I can’t see how it gets that low.
Cheers george!
ESJ, he’ll be waiting for retraining at an Australian Technical College because most of them haven’t started up yet. Those that have usually contract their voc ed from the local TAFE anyway.
Post me up some fresh Dolmades George
Exactly Ertnicam. You have to be deeply pessimistic to even get there.
if howard gets back in the chest will puff out and he will have forgotten all about prostituting himself around the joint. I need to see the end of this f*cker.
Rudd was in Ryan today 10% plus at the Indooroopilly Shopping Town. I am told that Lib candidate Johnson threw a wobbly in public at the shops when the ALP dared to intrude into this Tory fiefdom. Anyway tomorrow night Ryan goes ALP.
Pre-Howard
Muslim-Wog
Sydney Harbour Bridge-Tourism Icon
Job- secure
aussie tourist- respected, envied
culture- relaxed, easy going, compassionate, generous
House- if you worked hard enough
Australian- Proud
Post-Howard
Muslim- terrorist
Sydney Harbour Bridge- a target
Job- work twice as hard for half as much
Aussie tourist- DON’T show the flag
culture- bigoted, scared and greedy
House- If you work for it…twice as hard (see above)..actually forget it
Australian- (see culture)
This is why the ALP will win tomorrow.
ESJ @ 521 – Hahahah… nah I’ll just go work for the darkside (Corp HR).
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=state&national=0&nsw=7.9&vic=7&qld=11.1&wa=5.4&sa=9.4&tas=5&act=5&nt=5&retiringfactor=1.5
That was the best effort I could to get it to 52. Anyone else got any ideas?
oh the irony
im watching ch 9 for political analysis- the abc sucks
ps howard and rudd up live
I’ll be waiting to see the final odds tomorrow on Portland. If ALP is over $1.60, then I put the Coalition in with a shot. If not, it’s all over.
nath, if he get’s back do you have any suggestions about how to get a beer bottle out of a flat screen TV
didn;t work ertnicam – went back to the newspoll nnumbers (I don’t know how to do it)
damien J, forget the beer bottle, throw the tv out the window.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=state&national=0&nsw=5&vic=4.2&qld=7.1&wa=1.4&sa=5&tas=1.5&act=1&nt=3&retiringfactor=0
Edward StJohn Says:
Maybe JWH is right, you cant fatten the pig on market day?
Was that not what Howard was trying to do with Workchoices by appointing Joe Hockey ?
I have studied the published opinion polls (acn and news ) for every federal election from 1993 to now.
What I did is that I took current poll and the last poll for both companies and averaged them out to get a two week moving average;
acn1+acn2+news1+news2/4=n. The folowing are from the campaign start to the election result, including the final opinion polls that seen to come out around now. The results below;
1993 – 46.5 – 47 – 48.5 – 49.75 – 49.75 election = 51.4 (news only)
1996 – 46 – 46 – 46 – 46.75 – 46.75 election = 46.25
1998 – 51 – 52.125 – 51.75 -51 -51 election = 51
2001 – 45.5 – 47.625 – 47.75 – 47.75 – 48 election = 49
2004 – 49.75 – 49.375 – 49.125 – 48.875 – 48.375 – election = 47.2
2007 – 55.5 – 54.5 – 54.75 – 54.75 – 54.25 – election = 54.2 to 53.8 (f)
As we can see, the vote doesn’t move much at all if we can smooth out the MOE noise.If we look at the two big mover elections (1993 and 2001 ), the trend was clearly established ie, If we are going to get hit by a truck, we will see it long before it hits us – as long as we look! ( Also note Latham’s election trend!).
Rest easy…… and enjoy the show!
p.s – Sorry about the Galaxy stuff-up last night – I didn’t read the sample dates!
Hold your nerve guys.
I agree the Newspoll and Galaxy poll are counter-intuitive the way the campaign has run, particularly the last two weeks, and the consistent trend of 55-45 or 54-46 two-party preferred all year across the polls.
It really defies belief that so many people would have swung in behind the Coalition given the run of stuff-ups, the interest rate rise, the auditor general’s report on pork barreling development grants, the dodgy flyer scandal etc; etc;
But then again, how would it be in Newspoll’s interests to rig the poll when, if Labor wins by a more substantial amount, it would blow their credibility out of the water? And why would they fix it in Howard’s favour when their patrons at News Ltd have thrown their weight behind Rudd? Murdoch does not back losers.
The only realistic explanation is that it is a stuff-up, a change in sampling. Bear in mind, also, that Newspoll has been all over the place in recent weeks. It was a couple of weeks ago, it had Labor at 59-41.
But if you factor in retiring members
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=state&national=0&nsw=5&vic=4.2&qld=7.1&wa=1.4&sa=5&tas=1.5&act=1&nt=3&retiringfactor=0
Scaper, I’m holding my rosary beads. And I’m an atheist.
she’s cool scaper… we’re in mucking around mode now.
Is anybody else going to wear a string of garlic cloves into the polling booth tomorrow?
Is wearing your Kevin 07 t-shirt vote violating the prohibition on advertising in the polling station?
to vote
And the Coffee Bean Result is out.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22808475-948,00.html
#549 – You’re in Ruddock’s electorate then?
Postcript to 549: in addition to regular clothes, of course.
how do you link to the ABC calculator so it shows your numbers?
550 I’m calling..
basically your T shirt is fine, so long as you’re not ‘working’ at the booth
Howard’s on 9 now. Looks tired and pale. Exhausted, in fact.
the garlic cloves might finally destroy the undead
One thing I wonder about the last few polls is in regards to the larger sample sizes. Of course you could argue that this would increase their reliability. The counter argument is that by moving the sample size away from what you normally sample, the sampling becomes less familiar and untested. Where do you go to get you extra sample ??
I said 83 seats, 53.5% many weeks ago.
Did anyone keep a copy of that tipping list before bluebottle got toasted?
Re #553: Do you happen to be in his county? I’m actually next door in Bennelong
hey “Im calling warringah for Zochling”.. how are you feeling about Warringah?
556: Thanks.Wouldn’t want to have to strip off in Australia St school hall.
FC @ 552 It has been running for 4 fed elections and has accurately predicted each one. Possibly a bell weather poll, or possibly just conducted at a coffee shop frequented by more rusted on liberal Voters!!!
562: I’m calling it. For Zochling.
Yes Dave55- but once they advertised that fact, I think you can guarrantee a few party faithful started drinking there.
You’re probably right.
Whats the MOE on that bean poll?
What happened to Toby’s predictions from last night. Was it really just a hack or was Toby having us on?
Worst case scenario is Labor 19, absolute best 42 (extra seats) The answer will lie in between but I’m still sticking to 80, although looking at the odds that means 22 seats have to hold the tide. That is not likely either.
mad cow 560
http://pbpredict.googlepages.com/home
Does anyone here know the MoE for the latest Galaxy poll? Or don’t we have the sample size yet?
thanks Just Me
Whoa on Ch.9 Rudd blasted Howard in the poll of the audience…something like 66% to 34%
On the plus side, over the last hour or so PB has become a bit more relaxed. It was Panic Disorder central there for a while. Or Psephophobia.
Ha de Ha!
Just spoke to Nicole on bro’s mobile from my home. She is still at the pub. Drawing the raffle.
Offered her all our best!!
562: I came up with the name when I was driving through Mosman one Saturday during the campaign and saw the Mad Monk in chambray shirt and chinos handing out flyers to people amidst the BMW X5s. And I thought, as I beat a hasty retreat to the safe harbour of Grayndler, how sweet it would be if a rogue swing knocked out the Mad Monk. But realistically Zochling has Buckley’s and none.
Frank, mad cow et al.
I am broadband! Soooooooo cool!
Current speed 48 Mbps.
Congrats
http://media.theage.com.au/?rid=33487
Michelle Grattan’s analysis
Crikey, Crikey
CW – You are Broadband? Is Rudd paying $4.7Bn for you?
Tech said I am soooooooo Lucky!
Not before I got something, Dave55.
Ha – this phone in channel 9 stuff is a joke – Ray refers to it as a ‘trend’……
nice free advertising for both parties though
LOL. Welcome to the fast lane CW.
Looks like Krudd’s been backtracking on indigenous affairs lately, perhaps in a bid to lure back those conservative “battlers” who are returning to the Government. He has ditched his support for the PM’s constitutional referendum on reconciliation, and this reversal has earned a sharp rebuke from Noel Pearson. Krudd, according to Pearson, has an “innately contemptuous view of indigenous people”, and is a “heartless snake”.
Heartless snake. Sums up Krudd perfectly.
586: As opposed to JWH, who is compassionate, caring, unselfish…
Peter Beattie. Labor will win and Qld will be the backbone.
Did you read my recent re Nicole Cornes?
She is still at the pub, apparently.
Another bro’ is making haste to catch her.
ruawake – a link?
Call me a cynic. It’s all about selling papers, nothing more, nothing less hence the bottom tag of the single result page stating that full results are available in the w/e GG.
It’s mass manipulation of the highest order. Like George, I’m not buying it.
Pearson calling Rudd a heartless snake is a bit rich coming from someone who looks like Jabba the Hut.
Has Cornes got the tits oot for the lads?
Cripes the odds on Centrebet are diving/blowing out depending on who you are punting for…a TON of money is being put on the LNP!
Doesn’t need them out, Mr Katter.
Perception is all.
Pearson has sold his soul to Howard. So now he owes him big time. This is nothing more than that.
Pearson has become Howard’s glove puppet. If Pearson were fair dinkum he’d have no time for Howard at all after the 11 years of neglect for aboriginal affairs. I suspect Pearson has a personal interest in supporting Howard.
The only explanation I can come up with for a significant shift in the polling, if indeed it is a true reflection of voter sentiment, is the following:
This week, the tone from Labor could be described as “restrained triumphalism”. No matter how many times Labor figures trotted out the line “it’s going to very close” there was a strong sense from their demeanour, and from media coverage, that the contest was all over.
I just wonder if a lot of punters out there reacted to this presumpuous mood that had suddenly taken hold. Apart from that, as others have noted, it was a disastrous week for the Coalition.
ALP at 1.33 now
Libs 3.35
I never know what Pearson is for. He seems to change his mind every other week. He was previously a Labor member.
OK, when I first heard 52-48 I panicked.
Several things tell me this could be a bit fishy…..
1. Newspoll guy admitting to fiddling with the weightings
2. Laurie Oakes talking of pessimism in the Libs ranks
3. VoterBoy’s mate (VB, call him any time you want…)
4. Leaders hanging out in 10%+ Lib seats
5. Closest Poll of the whole bloody year on the day before the election (coincidence?)
6. The fact both 52-48 polls were commissioned by News Ltd
7. ACN and Morgan being 54.5 +
Any others to add to the list?
just me 571
Seems the Galaxy poll is a bit of a mystery. I’ve heard no sample size. No moe.
But this is politics – with 24 hours to go. Who needs details?
But usually voters like jumping on the bandwagon when it seems there is a sure winner.
James.
The odds have been pushed out by the bookies to ridiculous amounts (in excess of $4) In a two horse race which one of them is already given a 16 length start basically means, they are gone. The bookies push the price out so far that it lures unsuspecting libs to put some money on them, so they can use the libs funds to pay out to the labor backers at the end of the election. Any coalition price at above 2.60 basically means they have no hope what so ever.
602 Bryce – Galaxy was around 1200 people
OK folks, here are the seats Labor will win from the coalition (based on conversations with an insider):.
For certain
NSW: Dobell, Eden Monaro, Lindsay, Macquarie, Page, Robertson
VIC: Corangamite, La Trobe
QLD: Blair, Bonner, Bowman, Herbert, Leichardt, Moreton, Petrie, Ryan
Tas: Bass, Braddon
SA: Kingston, Makin, Wakefield
NT: Solomon
That’s 22 seats = Kevin Rudd PM
The cream, if it arrives, will be
NSW: Bennelong (too close to call), Patterson (outside chance only), look for Hughes to be a smokey, forget wild talk about Cowper, Joe Hockey will be re-elected in North Sydney, and Newhouse has butchered Wentworth for Labor, just butchered it.
Vic: Deakin, McEwen – but not McMillan
QLD: Flynn, Forde
WA: nothing. Labor will not win Stirling.
One thing is for sure. Antony won’t be calling this early, because it will be Queensland, one hour gehind, that will drive it home for Labor.
Its the young libs blowing their life savings.
Its definitely not the smart money.
Anyone who believes the final polls when they differ from the trend, needs their head read.
Sorry, forgot about Hasluck. Line ball according to my source.
Spiro
How reliable is your source?
What’s that, I manged to get an ALP win on the calculator with the 2PP vote at 50-50? You bet I did….. http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=state&national=0&nsw=3.4&vic=1.1&qld=3.3&wa=2.4&sa=6.9&tas=1.6&act=-9&nt=3.7&retiringfactor=1.5
That’s a good list Spiros, it almost coincides with mine, difference being I pick Bennelong to fall and Dawson.
The biggest problem with the Galaxy is that Family First have gone from “Less than 1%” to 2.5% in the space of 16 days, and what’s more. The increase has come 2% from Labor, and 0.5% from the Greens.
To me that doesn’t make much sense.
ALP Landslide is guaranteed folks. Just look at where the leaders where campaigning today. You need any more proof than that?
What has been the “message” from Labor? It will be close!
This Newspoll is manna from heaven for the ALP.
There are 2 reasons:
1. Force waverers to follow through.
2. Prevent dangerous hubris
The consequence is that the ALP primary will be even higher. When the swing is on it is on.
ROY MORGAN say they are doing a “Marginal” seat poll tonight
IT WILL NARROWING
We will not know whether its a further shift or Pollsters covering their back
605
Asanque Says:
602 Bryce – Galaxy was around 1200 people.
Thanks for that. Got a source/link?
#592 -
“Pearson calling Rudd a heartless snake is a bit rich coming from someone who looks like Jabba the Hut.”
That doesn’t even make sense. What does one have to do with the other?
And, yes, the bets are pouring in for the Coalition. Actually, a spokesman from Sportingbet was on the radio this morning and he observed that even though the big money had been on Labor throughout the campaign, the number of bets placed favoured the Coalition 2-1.
the Morgan poll WILL show a NARROWING
According to research recently released by Tabitha, 98% of Liberal voters under the age of 37 only did so because
‘Daddy only hugs me when he’s really pissed and the Libs win a federal election.’
No polling companies ever call me
#510 I thought Edward St John was “edward street john”
615 Just Me
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/new-poll-tips-cliffhanger/2007/11/23/1195753259333.html
612
ShowsOn
Agree. Something not right about those numbers.
621
Asanque
Thank you kindly.
613: Do you really think that the waverers follow the opinion polls so closely?
Steven Kaye – that same bookmaker said despite 60% of bets going to the coalition – the big money headed to the ALP and the big money bets are the ones you pay more attention to. He said a lot of small money would flow to the coalition because why wouldn’t you throw a bit of cash at something paying $4+ in a two horse race.
With your selective editing you could work on Sunrise or Sky!
Centrebet has moved massively…. ALP 1.33 to Coalition 3.35. I have previously discarded today’s Galaxy and Newspoll as crap….but I can only hope this betting market movement is a bunch of ill informed young lib hopefuls….
RUTB 609
My source is someone who doesn’t see the internal polling but gets told what it is.
NEWSPOLL PRIMARYs
heard its Labor 44 Liberals 43 Greens 7 Others 6 (guess Family ist gets 2% of the 6
Yeah, it’s all too suss, for mine.
I prefer qualitative, looks all good to me.
Warning hubris alert
Whose face are we most looking forward to seeing when the Libs lose? Dolly? Rodent? Smirk?
Ron Brown, where is this information coming from?
Just put $10 bucks on Robb losing his Goldstein seat (9/1)…. Bloody long shot, but I’m willing to blow $10 bucks just on the off chance of seeing that wanker lose and me cleaning up with the bookies.
I have just collated the individual seat betting on Centrebet, ALP favourite to win:
NSW, 28 seats,
Vic 21
Qld 11
SA 6
WA 6
Tas 5
ACT 2
NT 2
Making total of 81 seats where ALP is now clear favourite to win.
Good luck Red Under the Bed
Thanks Warringah
Robb on lateline after Lindsaygate made me think “born to rule wanker”
Basil Fawlty, Simon Jackman has been doing this every day of the campaign and putting it into graphs! He collaborates Centrebet, Sportingbet, and Portlandbet.
Check it out: http://jackman.stanford.edu/oz/index.php
Today’s chart: http://jackman.stanford.edu/oz/Aggregate2007/bettingmarkets/avgProb.pdf
Howard believes his own lies:
PRIME Minister John Howard has made his boldest prediction of a marathon campaign, claiming his party will be returned at tomorrow’s poll.
Making a final-day campaign blitz across Queensland, Mr Howard said his conversations with ordinary voters convinced him the Coalition will win.
Hubris I suspect!
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22808635-661,00.html
Thanks Nick, I am aware of Simon’s site, I just needed the diversion to avoid watching tv.
We’ll know for sure tomorrow how easily the Australian people can be bought. If the Libs win, I think I’ll go to the nearest branch and sign up. I am fairly certain they won’t so I hopefully don’t have to make good on this. Hell if you can’t beat them, join them, right?
I am watching the show on channel 9 much to the familys displeasure. Anyway up hear in Brisbane they are showing the numbers to vote from home and then after the break showing the result of the phone polls. They have no disclaimer saying this show is on delay and your vote therefore meanless, except from the revenue point of view for 9 and the telcos.
fair enough basil…nine’s election eve thingo was pretty spectacularly crap, i must say.
John Howard saying that he can win because Liberal voters told him he could is like those awful kids on Australian Idol who can’t sing for shite, but their mum assures them they are great!
To the nervous nellies out there, hopefully you can all take comfort in the following statistics that I’ve got out of my Monte Carlo simulator at the 52/48 TPP.
ALP on 76+: 89.2%
ALP on 75: 5.4%
ALP on 74: 3.0%
LNP on 75: 1.4%
LNP on 76+: 1%
The 95% confidence range for the ALP number of seats is 73-84, with the average of 79 seats.
Note the chance of a majority government is 10 times that of a minority ALP government (assuming Katter supports ALP), and the chance of the LNP winning government is only 2.4%.
This was based on a swing average of 4.7, with a standard deviation of the swing being 3.05% (this would give 99% of swings between -4.45 to 13.85, 95% of swings between -1.4 and 10.8)
Anyway, I’m out of here. Happy Election Day, and take care.
You guys who are obsessed with the betting markets, why not slaughter a chicken and examine the entrails instead?
And the mere possibility of a Krudd win continues to effect the economy adversely. First it was a tumbling dollar, now its tumbling business confidence, according to the Sensis Business Index quarterly survey. Its small business confidence indicator has fallen 16 percentage points to 43 per cent, the lowest level in six years.
“We have never seen such a dramatic one-quarter fall in confidence in the 14 years Sensis has been tracking small businesses,” report author Christena Singh said.
Thanks Will from Kooyong!!! I’ve been seriously pissed off at the MSM reporting the 52-48 result as a “possible win for the coalition” without mentioning that it would bring almost certain victory for the ALP.
OK, this is worrying me:
Centrebet has the Libs on 3.20 and the ALP on 1.35. Here’s hoping that I won’t have to join the Libs next week.
spiros that was early umr results your insider told U
ex to line ball/wish list dobell,McQ, Robertson, Coranga, Latrobe, Leichardt,solomon
therefore 15 go figure!!!
Just rang the mate. Not in. Girlfriend answered. Quote, unquote: “He’s at a wake with the other people in his office”.
“It’s like that, is it?” I asked.
“Oh yes,” she replied, giving her best impression of Elaine from Seinfeld.
Without giving anything away, I can say with some confidence that that has national rather than local implications.
I shall, nevertheless, try again later.
If it is bothering you so much, put some money on the Libs. That way if they win you’ll be able to drown your sorrows.
The surprise of both parties gives it away: their own polls show ALP home easy.
Who’s the only dufus in the room? News Ltd.
I really hope that Ron settles down!
Ed StJ, because the betting markets are better than polls, let alone chook entrails for predicting elections. The betting markets have the voluntary participation of informed people putting their money where they think the election’s going to go…need I say more?
Honest John: I’ve never lied
JOHN Howard has used one of his final pitches for re-election to declare that he is an honest man and has never lied to the Australian people.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22808575-5013964,00.html
As sure as JWH is a liar God tommorrow please let the political ground open up and swallow JWH and all his lies.
PortlandBet
Labor favoured in Coalition Marginals
VIC 2
NSW 6
QLD 6
TAS 2
WA 1
SA 3
No Coalition favoured in Labor Marginals
Net Gain according to Portlandbet punters – 20
Steven Kaye
I am surprised you or any Lib would quote a report by someone with the last name Singh
Steven Kaye – You goose.
I suppose Rudd is to blame for Citibank losing $20 billion and the sub-prime debacle dominating market sentiment atthe moment.
Just as Howard is taking credit for the boom in China.
Fool!
Listening to these Liberal clowns you wouldnt have any idea we have a free market economy.
Its all run by TEH GOVERNMENT!
Sorry (that not an apology) Forgot NT with 1 … Net Gain 21
He is saying that when he lied they were only non-core lies.
Steven Kaye,
No, it’s the possibility that Howard might lose in Bennelong and Costello will be the PM that’s effecting the economy badly. Costello is terrifying everyone. Makes as much sense as your silly comments.
Yes, Howard and Costello talk as if they are leaders of a Politburo.
Six or 12 months ago, if anyone had offered you that Newspoll would be 52-48 on Pollday you would have grabbed it with both hands!
ESJ @ 645:
“You guys who are obsessed with the betting markets, why not slaughter a chicken and examine the entrails instead?”
No way, that is the method King Rat has been using to govern the country, give me the comparative honesty of a betting market any day.
I have friends working on the Libs campaign…. I asked about their polling after seeing the Newspoll and Galaxy….and apparently their polling is picking up similar numbers…similar movement…though only in last couple days
Steven Kaye – the fact that you are blaming Rudd (who isn’t yet PM) for a slipping ASX and Aussie Dollar is indicitive of the tripe we should come to expect from Liberals if Rudd is to win.
Check the global markets mate, most notably the U.S. Heard of this little thing called sub-prime? Due to some people in the banking/lending sector having the foresight of a legally blind mole, the US stock market is in a continual slump. Not to mention the US is on the brink of recession due to the economic policies of your U.S neo-con mates in the Republican party.
If the govt of the day has as much control over the financial state of the nation as Steven Kaye says, the Libs can’t have been very good at implementing their small government/free market ideology over the past 12 years, can they?
“Socialism is defeated.
The country is united.
Re-elected Prime Minister Howard please stay and lead us beyond 2010″
- Tabitha 24th November 2007
Sorry dunno how to do a link, but I think I’ve worked out how the Coalition can get a majority of the 2PP vote and still lose!! This formula, in Antony Green’s calculator, gives Labor 76 seats with 49.9% of the vote.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=state&national=0&nsw=3.4&vic=1.1&qld=3.3&wa=2.4&sa=6.9&tas=1.6&act=-9&nt=3.7&retiringfactor=1.5
tabitha’s back from responding 1,000 times to Newspoll
10pse, do they think they’ll win?
Someone came to this site the other night and said Lib internals were showing a result just under 52% and 5 seats in it either way, but leaning towards the Libs.
“Socialism is defeated. The country is united.” – wasn’t that part of one of Hitler’s victory speeches in the 30’s Tab??
And furthermore it means they deliberately forced up interest rates.
Chris Schact on Stateline predicts 20 seat margin to Labor, but says quite likely an underestimate if anything, Minchin peddles the mythical narrowing.
Honest John: I’ve never lied.
Richard Nixon: The President is not a crook.
Antonio, forget the calculator, the calculator assumes relative uniformity in swings. It’s possible to get a result lower than that and Labor to still lose. As someone was saying on here earlier Labor could’ve won the 1987 election with a 2PP of 47.9%
Anyone want a roughie to bet on before they close tomorrow morning. Go for the independant Brunning in Forrest (WA). Former GWN newsreader for the South-West is very popular and could cause an upset. With Lib Wanker Prosser retiring, the environment is set for an upset win by the newsboy.
I have slaughtered a stack load of chickens, extracted their entrails, and on-sold them to Inghams. The entrails have led me to have a bet on the Greens candidate in Mayo.
I would suggest others do the same, the odds are very tempting $501 or thereabouts – wait now into $401. I think it would be fascinating if everyone wagered a $1 as well and we’d start a mini-plunge going in a seat where it would probbly be a small hold.
Tabitha, are you really Bronwyn Bishop? Just curious, remarkable resemblance.
Okay, let’s settle this 52-48 thing once and for all….. clearly Labor could win with less than 52, but they could also lose with 52.
52 is a 4.7% swing from 2004…. you all love Antony so plug this into his calculator
NSW 4.7%
Vic 4.1%
QLD 6.8%
WA 0.3% to coalition
SA 7.1%
Tas 6%
ACT 5.8%
NT 0%
this gives 4.7% swing overall for a 52% result, but only 76 seats…. a win by a nose.
However, is assumes only +1 for Coalition in WA, when that could be 2 without affecting the national figures….
And it assumes the swings are even in each state which is not going to happen. For instance, it assumes Wentworth would fall which is highly unlikely if NSW swing statewide is only 4.7%….. and before you all say “the swing has to come from somewhere”… getting 8% in hockey’s seat is not good enough.
so take out wentworth too and Govt holds on by a smidgeon… despite 48-52.
that said, i think labor will win… just making a point
If all these mates of people are so freely giving out internal numbers you would think some of it would fall off the back of truck and into the press more often than it does such as the Crobsy Texter stuff earlier in the year.
Thanks George, Basil Fawlty and Will from K, I was about to pop a cyanide tablet. And to the nervous nellies, you reassure me that I’m not the only one to be terrified of the prospect that after all I haven’t seen the end of Little Blue Running Shorts.
I don’t think Labor will get 7.1 in S.A. At most they’ll get 6.5.
There’s no campaign reason for a narrowing, The Libs have been every bit as woeful as the first five.
My feeling, if anything, is again that Lindsaygate probably did them a favour – all attention went to the PM over the last two days, “and something about Muslims=bad”.
Thus is the power of the wedge over idiots.
Having said that – it aint enough, and its too late.
I have absolutely no doubt we’ll be whooping it up tomorrow night, round 830-9pm.
, with 53% in the bag.
For the rest of you, get used to PM Rudd. He’ll be around a while.
LETP Yes I realise that, but it’s fun using the calculator. I’m just challenging anyone else to get a Labor win on the calculator with 49.9% of the national 2PP.
I mean, it’s Friday night. Who’d want to go out and have fun when we can discuss margins of error on the computer?
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=state&national=0&nsw=3.4&vic=1.1&qld=3.3&wa=2.4&sa=6.9&tas=1.6&act=-9&nt=3.7&retiringfactor=1.5
10pse is very interested in who we love. Antony and Possum. We could come to love you too, 10pse, in time, if your analysis is good enough.
Why are people surprised at the polls narrowing? Moons ago I said compulsory voting helps the status quo, especially an incumbent in prosperous times. Labor has gone out of its way to not give people a strong reason to vote for them, so the saliency of their support has been low. The government is hardly any better – indeed its campaign has been grotesque. But it can rely on the apoliticals breaking its way late in the piece, if not as decisively as in ‘04.
Labor are still favourites, and if they win I owe Peter Brent a healthy cheque from a bet made six months ago. If they lose, he owes me a smaller one, which I will donate to William’s PayPal.
I think the most telling statistic of the day is simply this
Rudd was today campaigning in a safe coalition seat (10%)
Now if there was any credible sniff of a 53-48 margin that would not have happened
ABC news just said labors lead has been cut to 3%, waht is that about?……any new polls?…..
Time to put my reputation on the line
I’m standing by my May 28th prediction of an ALP win and while the polls are very interesting I’m tipping tomorrow the following will happen
ALP 54.1 – Liberal/National 45.9
I expect both Windsor and Katter will be returned with Calare going to the National Party
I think the Liberals will pick up Cowan but will be slaughtered.
I’m tipping the ALP to gain 33 seats to win 92- 56 – 2
Kingston 0.1 Bonner 0.6 Wakefield 0.7 Makin 0.9 Braddon 1.1 Parrmatta 1.1 Hasluck 1.8 Bass 2.6 Lindsay 2.6 Moreton 2.8 Solomon 2.8 Eden-Monaro 3.3 Bennenlong 4.0 Dobell 4.8 Deakin 5.0 McMillan 5.0 Corrangamitte 5.3 Page 5.5 Blair 5.7 Lt Trobe 5.8 Herbert 6.1 McEwen 6.4 Paterson 6.8 Stuart 6.8 Flynn 7.9 Petrie 7.9 Hudges 8.8 Hinkler 8.8 Bowman 8.9 Leichhardt 10.3 Ryan 10.4
McPherson 14.0
I’m expecting some very close results in seats like Casey, Goldstein, North Sydney, Longman, Boothsby, Stirling, Gippsland, Canning.
By this time tomorrow the result will be very clear, I’m not saying the Liberals can’t win, I just will be very surprised for the campaign has been rather poor.
I wish to thank William and all who post here.
Cheers
BMW (now as anyone seen my pencil)
LTEP,
i didn’t get into it with them about whether they thought they would win… though it is fair to say they have always thought their vote on the day would be higher because of the “in the ballot box, putting pencil to paper” effect.
it is fair to say that a week ago most of them were down…. not giving up…. just down…. they seem much more confident now
but they have always said that it was much closer in the marginals. From what I have heard from both sides I have thought for sometime that Labor would probably fall over the line, but with 1-3 surprises needed to do it…. they just aren’t going to win enough of the 16 most marginal…. but they could get some random surprises…
Nick, re the betting markets;
Lassiter on NSW Stateline program said that the bets on the Coalition are mostly large amounts, but the bets on Labor are smaller and numerous. Team Howard’s rich mates continue to throw their pocket change of 5K or 10K into the betting markets, which is a lot cheaper than paid adverts in newspapers and internet.
Business executives on massive salaries already have a big tax cut at stake here, let alone their virulent hatred of Labor and unions (see Jacky Kelly’s comment justifying her husband’s smear pamphlets: “He just really hates unions”, and he’s just upper middle class).
This is how it works in America, where the big business lobby groups and evangelical Christians (Howard’s holy brethren here) secretly pay for swiftboating campaigns and Democratic voter suppression schemes. Sad to see it on the increase here now.
Centrebet narrowed to ALP 1.37 LNP 3.10….who are these people lumping thousands of $$$ on the Coalition?
Kat, maybe its Newspoll without the rounding: 51.5 to 48.4 = 3.1 gap.
What people forget about federal Australian elections is that one of NSW or VIC swings and the other doesn’t. It is always upto QLD to decide who wins and the polls of 52-48 are more inline with the current QLD mood. I work at a state high school in the seat of Bowman and about 60% of techers are going to vote Liberal tomorrow. Most were undecided for a long time but went with Howard because they know him and got fed up with the constant emails and texts from the union. Most other swinging voters I have talked to in QLD seem to feel the same. Look for a 50/50 TPP tomorrow night with it being called for Howard at 8pm Sydney time when they relize QLD will not swing.
686
Antonio Says:
I mean, it’s Friday night. Who’d want to go out and have fun when we can discuss margins of error on the computer?
What are PBers going to do with themselves next week? Post-election analysis is nowhere near as much fun, especially if your side loses.
Gee, I don’t know about this. I saw people in Lindsay interviewed on LateLine, and others interviewed in today’s Oz and they all condemned it. One woman on Lateline said it was “cheating”.
Honest John: I’ve never lied.
Bill Clinton: I did not have sexual relations with that woman.
The difference is I love Bill…..
I’m crash reading some of the comments to catch up.
“Hold your nerve guys”
“Scaper, I’m holding my rosary beads. And I’m an atheist.”
Good stuff.
oops 52-48 margin
How are you feeling Centre?
Hemingway @ 692…..riiiiiggght. If the Coalition gets under $3 i’m going to struggle to keep a lid on it….
694
I’m calling Warringah for Zochling Says:
November 23rd, 2007 at 8:31 pm
Kat, maybe its Newspoll without the rounding: 51.5 to 48.4 = 3.1 gap.
is that teh actual decimal point figures?…..
If the figures really do move towards 52/48 or less tomorrow, and it’s not just poll-e-technic manipulation, then what can it be put down to? ALP has not put a foot wrong in the last 2-3 weeks. The only thing I can put it down to is the LNP fear ads over the same period which must have had more impact than its stuff-ups.
Perhaps this is should be a refreshing ‘pull-through’ at this late stage for those of us here on the chattering pages who assume everyone else out there is just as smart and savvy as us. Just maybe there is a strainer-post demographic, and they respond to the negative stuff – there must be a demographic like this in the US, where it comes from. Does Homer Simpson live here too?
Sorry, not actual decimal point figures, just a surmise to make 3 per cent gap consistent with 52-48
centrebet odds are changing faster than the comments page on PB – now ALP 1.38 LNP 3.05. I hope you’re right hemingway
This is quite plainly nonsense.
The Newspoll has changed its sampling weights at the very last poll making it impossible to compare with its previous polls or any other poll. It has a wildly skewed result in WA and, we don’t know what they did to sampling weights elsewhere. In short it can serve no indicative purpose.
And why on earth would they do such a thing at the very last poll? Knowing the result would defy any sensible interpretation. It is however being run in the news as a comeback and possible recovery by Howard. Maybe that was its purpose.
We have no choice but to fall back on their previous Newspolls.
http://www.newspoll.com.au/image_uploads/1105%20state%20&%20dem%2022-11-07.pdf
The AC Nielsen has produced what appears to be a high end moe. So we are best going back to their last poll as well.
http://au.acnielsen.com/news/documents/NielsenPoll2007.pdf
The Morgan phone poll is making sense with itself. Forget the f2f polls they are good for nothing at this time.
55.5, 56, 56, 56, 54.5 [with family first up 2%]
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2007/4250/
Forget the marginal polls they are subject to far too much moe and difficulty sampling properly.
The most recent polls Newspoll, Nielsen and Morgan phone are:
55,54
55,54
56, 54.5
Tomorrow we are going to get 54+/46
The betting is probably following the way Newspoll & Galaxy are being shown in the news as a Howard come back.
#616 Steven Kaye: “Actually, a spokesman from Sportingbet was on the radio this morning and he observed that even though the big money had been on Labor throughout the campaign, the number of bets placed favoured the Coalition 2-1.”
Well, this is bleedin’ obvious, isn’t it? The odds for the coalition are so much higher than for Labor, that you don’t have to bet as much to win a decent sum of money. And people who might want to bet a small some of money on Labor may not, because the payout is so small it’s not worth it.
The really big money would tend to come from professional punters who are in it to make money. The smaller bets would come from smaller punters, and one-off punters, who either are betting on a party because they like the party, or betting on the Coalition because the odds are so good.
Having said that, the betting market suggestion that Labor is going win 80-81 seats (ie a narrow win) is spot-on with the last-minute polls.
#703 – If the coalition win it will be pure cowardess and inertia. At the end of the day, you know precisely the devil your getting in JOhn Howard, no matter how much you hate him. No matter how well Rudd presents, he is still someone who is different, and as unfair or cruel as that sounds, people will vote for John Howard because John Howard after eleven years is a precisely known quantity. The electorate would need to put on their big boy pants to vote for Rudd, who’s to say if they will?
Doesnt anyone get it?
Its a giant conspiracy by the betting agencies to get dumb Libs to practically give them money betting for JWH win
AND
Its just hype to try and keep the Liberal foot soldiers motivated to minimise the losses
Nick 705 – I bet the bookies are rubbing their hands with glee at the money coming in on the Coalition
jaundiced @ 703
The Morgan Reactor analysis of the Liberal negative ads showed they had little effect.
IAS bet has Labor $1.34 Coalition $3.45. I don’t think this bet site moves as quickly as the much larger Centrebet.
Stephen @ 696
God you are full of it. Still making up stories about swinging voters going over to Howard for all sorts of reasons. Do you still claim to have access to both Labor and Liberal internal polls or have you dropped bit of BS.
Somebody may have aleready pointed this out (apologies if they have) but Newspoll TPP is likely to have understated Labor share by about 1% if it uses last election preference flows.
In 2004 Geen votes was 7.2% of which 80.79% flowed to Labor (see aec stats). The “other’ vote was 8.5% of which about 45% flowed to Labor so that all up preferences flowed to labor by 61.1%.
However Newspoll have previoulsy forecast that Greens vote will be 7% while ‘others’ only 6%. With reported TPP of 52/48 this implies (based on a Green plus Other share of 13% as per Bewspoll on Nov 16) FP vote of 44 for ALP and 43 for Coalition
Given the preference deal with the Greesn plus clear differences in Climate policy you could reasonably expect Labor to get 90% of Green preferences. Assuming they remain steady at 45% of “other” this implies that ALP preference share will be closer to 69%. On a TPP this means tha a 44% primary share would be 53% TPP not 52TPP that would arise by using 61.1% preference share.
But he has a BLOG, he MUST be RIGHT.
I just got a canned phone call from Hockey in North Sydney.
I get it Seanof Perth, I get it !! Mass manipulation.
Nothing more a bookie loves than a late plunge on a 3 legged nag that can’t win.
Paul K at 716 – Of course Stephen K has access to internal polling – most teachers in govt schools do, and are mainly Liberal voters too. Just like stockbrokers.
@705
This was ALWAYS going to happen. Look through the weeks og posts here, most people were expecting the Libs to narrow on the day. Whether its real or not is another matter entirely.
For the record once more 53.7 Lab tomorrow.
If the latest Galaxy and Newspoll polls are indicative of the election result (and I hope they are not) but if they are I put the narrowing down to the coalition’s campaign of using attack adds and them resonating with a lot of waverers. The majority of posters at this site and a fair number of journalists in the MSM have commented on how poor the coalition’s campaign has been but I’m not so sure this is the case. I’ve always thought that their adds have had more bite than those of the ALP (at least here in Adelaide) but maybe that is just me. Anyhow hoping I’m wrong and that I won’t have tomorrow night spoilt by another ALP loss.
sheople sheople sheople
the last day of chez howard is nearing its fitful end
ps i hear liberal intrenal polling has produced high demand for rectinol
Stephen are you sure you didn’t miss a career as a pollster. 60% of teachers in one school in Bowman (which school was it – Sheldon College?) swing the TPP in QLD to 50/50. Wow – the fact that you are going against EVERY pollster in the country means that when on Saturday it is 50/50 you will be the only pollster in the country! Well played sir!
Seriously guys
Why would a polling company try to get a result that is wrong?
As for winning party they all agree- the margin is in dispute
Erytnicam 709 – the Liberals aren’t stupid… they know they lost most of the rational voters long ago but the aim of their campaign has been psychological – to spread messages of fear and uncertainty about Labor. Nothing I’ve seen from the Liberals in the last couple of weeks has had any substance to it – it’s all been branding Labor as ‘extremists’, ‘learners’, ‘thugs’ – any other negative labels they can think of – and suggesting that ‘If you vote Labor, you’ll be sorry’.
The whole aim of the campaign is to threaten voters, breaking down their confidence, with the hope that they will go for a perceived safety option. It’s extraordinary, and I hope voters can stand up to it tomorrow.
Whilst it’s been clear for much of the year the punters are trailing, not leading the polls, why attribute significant late movement in the markets to outsiders speculating on news reports? It would take large bets to shift the markets in the final day/s.
These bets could Packer-rich ne’er do wells who just can’t resist a punt. More likely they are monied folk with connections. The latter would be informed by matey leaks from inside the parties, particularly the Liberals. They may still be rent-seekers, but their ‘inside’ information can only be the race is tightening albeit with the Liberals are behind, but the odds look too good.
It’s looking more and more like the Rodent could be returned.
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRRGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The Hon. Noel Pearson, Liberal MP
Hahaha
I love bookies… with the help of two dodgy polls, the lure of large odds (in excess of 3-4 times your money) and the stupidity of coalition backers, they have managed to suck alot of money out of these tories in the last few hours, and like good robin hood types, redistribute the money to themselves and the labor backers after the election. The only losers are the Lib lovers.
If Howard wins then it will be the fault of the silly tossers I see postesting in the city every week they so should be moved on
Teachers… in govt schools… voting for Howard.
OK. He’s managed to achieve the US GOP trick of getting people to vote against their own self-interest.
The Hon. Noel Pearson, Liberal MP, alias Judas sold out Aboriginals to JWH for 30 pieces of silver.
Extract from possum’s thread for everyone’s info
A little birdy told me: Newspoll surveyed 397 voters in WA and recorded primary votes of 50% for Coalition and 37% ALP – a 6% turnaround. TPP is 56-44.
Westpoll out tomorrow has the Coalition ahead 53-47 in Cowan and Hasluck, ALP ahead 52-48 in Stirling and 50.25-49.75 in Swan. Greens polling between 6-8% across these marginals.
Westpoll surveyed 1850 voters from Sunday to Wednesday.
Comment by short&jocular — November 23, 2007 @ 4:44 pm
do NOT know how reliable Westpoll is….POSSUM OR WILLIAM may know
Chris Schacht didn’t say Labor would win by 20 seats but that it would win about 20 extra seats. Minchin seemed smugly confident that the Libs would hang on to one or two of Kingston, Makin and Wakefield, and that would make a Labor victory impossible. One should not be surprised if that happens, because the people running the SA campaign are the same ones who said that David Cox would hold Kingston last time.
If you read Stephen’s blog it is absolutely amazing. Everywhere he goes he comes across swinging voters who were going to vote for Rudd but have now changed their minds and want to vote for Howard. They’re coming out of the woodwork there’s so many of them, and they just can’t help telling Stephen about it. What a wanker.
People assume that everyone having to vote favours Labour. I do not thinks so. Most people by a mile are not rich and have no dreams once they are past the age of Thirty, of moving into the 180 000 a year bracket. Yet Libs who at there heart mostly about serving the forces of capital get 50 % give or take of the vote at elections.
I think people who hear the word muslim and then walkout side there fibros hut, past the rusting car bodies and jump into their 1991 Holden parked on the footpath and head down to their kids troubled state school and vote Lib with a grunt and a puff of their cig. Would not vote at all if they did not have to.
Please do not call me a snob, I am one of Rudds battlers.
Sure, but the Liberals have taken all their money out of those three and put it into Boothby and Sturt. Actions speak louder than rhetoric.
Big Blind Dave @ 725
What would a newspaper do to increase circulation?
And let me guess, the people he meets have blogs where they write about listening to Stephen report that swinging voters are backing Howard?
Some might be interested in Barry Cassidy’s take and prediction.
“Those who still believe the Coalition can make a miraculous comeback and win the 2007 election, essentially rely on two qualifications – and both of them are dodgy.”
“Given that, far from being hard to win, 16 seats will be a snap.
Keep in mind, the Coalition all but conceded 12 to 14 of those 16 seats very early on. They concentrated instead on seats with strong local factors, like Wentworth and Bennelong, and a handful of other marginals a little further up the pendulum than the most vulnerable 16.
And all the while, Kevin Rudd was campaigning in a range of seats in NSW and Queensland even further up the pendulum, seats requiring swings of 10 and 12 per cent. Parties do not spend valuable time in those seats unless they have research suggesting they are in play.
The Coalition had to run with that limited bunker warfare approach in a handful of key seats. But such a strategy has left them exposed to big losses further afield.”
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/A-night-for-the-record-books-9779L?OpenDocument?OpenDocument
I just got one from the ALP. It’s definitely on in North Sydney…
The Newspoll chart in The Australian says latest and all polls are based on preference flow in 2004 election.
Man, you get a poll or two that are marginally off and ppl are crying like a bunch of schoolgirls.
Hellol! Every single poll points to a win for Rudd.
IMO it the AC poll is the one that will prove to be right. Trust me, this time tomorrow you will be laughing.
Did anyone here PM tonight. ABC reporter travelling with Howard said after people had shaken his hand and thanked him for the ‘good years’ some said directly to his face that they wouldn’t be voting for him because they wanted a change. Others were telling the reporter after Howard went ahead that altho they still liked him it was time for a change. She said this had been a comment heard over and over again. But then I heard Howard saying words to the effect that he could feel it ‘the love’ and he would win.
I wouldn’t put it past the bookies to do some fast odds-changing to try to draw in the novice punters as interest intensifies in tomorrow’s poll.
Basically, they need as much cash as possible on the Coalition to offset the payouts they will be making on Labor. While they try to maintain a certain margin, they get caught occasionally when a very big bet is placed (in this instance on Labor) which throws things out of whack.
Big Blind Dave @ 725:
Because the poll results shape the media narrative and potentially shape the outcome itself.
@745 Su H
Yep that explains why Howard polls so favourably in is he doing a good job. AND why that polling for that ‘doing a good job’ is misleading.
And that’s what it’s all about. Liberal voters changing over. There won’t be any going the other way.
And what did you hear, my blue-eyed son?
And what did you hear, my darling young one?
I heard the sound of a thunder, it roared out a warnin’,
Heard the roar of a wave that could drown the whole world,
Heard one hundred drummers whose hands were a-blazin’,
Heard ten thousand whisperin’ and nobody listenin’,
Heard one person starve, I heard many people laughin’,
Heard the song of a poet who died in the gutter,
Heard the sound of a clown who cried in the alley,
And it’s a hard, and it’s a hard, it’s a hard, it’s a hard,
And it’s a hard Election to be called.
(Sorry Bob, can’t help it)
Su H, yes I was listening to that.
I think there’s a lot of people out there who won’t vote for Howard who are afraid to say so for reasons of social acceptance.
And I think Howard isn’t just spinning. I think he genuinely thinks he’s invincible.
Neilsen, sadly, draw a rogue out of its hat this week. Sadly, as it’s the poll associated with the least spin (Newspoll), bias (Galaxy) and amateurism (Morgan).
People here are always quoting Bookmakers.
I would think you could place as much veracity in Bookmakers words (they just want you to bet- someone just put 200000 on the favorite they say so all the little bets follow) as folks on this blog who quote insider polling from their mates.
This is interesting, I didn’t get this impression at all from the TV pictures. It was more like 75/25 for Howard.
But it seems it was really just a victory lap / last goodbye.
745 – I liked the report that Michael Johnson, the Liberal member for Ryan, in complaining that Kevin Rudd would not shake his hand referred to Rudd as the future Prime Minister of Australia.
In regard to the Bookies, they are all crooks and the tightening is just to cash in on public sentiment that Johnny is coming back.
Finnigans, I think a good background song for the ABC election coverage is..
Another one bites the dust.. crank it up every time a seat falls
“L-NP Ads Fail To Convert ALP Supporters
Overall the electorate has been more ‘persuaded’ by ALP advertising than L-NP advertising — according to Roy Morgan’s Reactor”
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2007/4244/
K Jin.. Money talks. A lot of the big bets are placed by people genuinely “in the know”. If you are a Liberal insider who just sees some truly awful internal polling, the temptation is enormous to use that inside knowledge to get a very good financial return. Unlike the stock market, there is no law against insider trading in election betting markets.
Ni hao, Kina.
Are you a Danish zhongguren or a Chinese dansker (In Danish Kina = China)?
In rank order end of WW2 1945, fall of the berlin wall 1989. and rud labor win 2007. Democracy will prevail always.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=5muLIq9PqUk
Only 24 hours until a 5th term Howard Government! I can’t wait! Yippee!!!!!!
ShowsOn, there’s still a cult following for Howard, sadly.
Think about it. Almost every day you hear another sound bite from Howard in the news, on some issue… the footie.. the weather.. anything. The press have been so keen to be manipulated by someone that just wants to make sure everyone knows his voice.
Me, I cringe every time I hear his voice. That’s the number one thing I’m gonna enjoy a year from now. No more Howard sound bites.
ICWFZ re#700.
I have always had some doubts about the true trustworthy of the polls. The trustworthy of the polls has been factored into the betting from the word go.
The betting market versus the polls has been a great debating point this year. I really hope that the polls are not going to get their brains kicked in tomorrow.
If Howard wins tomorrow, the polls will never be taken seriously again more than one week out from the election ever.
Replying to you late as was reading previous comments.
BRIDGER!
I just remembered Noel Coward’s big boss gangsta character from the original Italian Job.
Tomorrow night will they be chanting his name while banging their pots and pans?
tap, tap taptaptap taptaptaptap tap tap RUDD! tap tap tap tap…..
I must say it’s been eerily quiet in Moreton all election. Just the odd letterbox full of junk. Not a sign of a doorknocker, few billboards (at least since before the campaign) and definitely no canned calls. It suggests this seat is written off.
On the other hand you have the odd sight of Rudd’s unattractive and unlikely Liberal opponent with huge billboards on main streets. What explains that? A wannabe hoping to earn his spurs (unlikely, Rudd will have a fair swing to him). A bloke with cash hoping for 15 seconds media and public attention? The need to hit main roads with something to keep the Senate vote up? However you cut it, it seems like an odd way to spend the campaign $$.
as for positive images of people in shopping centers shaking howards hands, well i hate him and his whole party but if he came up to me with 10 cameras follwing i’m not exactly sure i woudl start hurling abuse…….probably just shake his hand , move on and then spend the next hour thinking of whitty things i could have said
Piss off you lib dope Nostro
Newspoll got stung in 2004 by trying to predict the preference flow instead of going by the 2001 flow, so now they have reverted to using 2004 flows. This is why they get better figures for the coalition on TPP.
The problem is that this time round the Greens are going to poll well and the preference flows are likely to flow more strongly to labor this time round due to the fact that there is now a stark difference in Labor and The Coalition in green issues (Kyoto namely).
If you look at the history of the Morgan polls this year it can be seen very clearly that the TPP through 2004 distributions and the TPP through how the people polled WILL preference is usually resulting in a 0-2% increase in the TPP for Labor. Newspoll should’ve been at least 53/47 IMHO even if their primaries were correct.
The trouble is, the closest polls are the latest.
Passion pulse is suggesting a Labor landslide.
How much money has Galaxy and Newspoll just made for the bookies? Who are the major shareholders in the major Australian Bookies?
I rest my case.
Next election no one will care what the predictions for this one are (except us tragics).
Another “cunning plan” from the money makers.
People, chill. All this angst about a poll with a 95% MOE of +-2%, at the bottom end of the average, minus MOE for the 120 polls preceding it. IT MEANS NOTHING AT ALL ON ITS OWN!!! Why don’t you decide that you like the ACN polls instead? That would be more rational, since they involve bigger overall samples. No single poll tells you anything except that a snapshot of ‘primary voting intention’ for a supposedly randomly sampled, but representative, after suitable massaging, group of 1400, 1800, 2300, or whatever people, was , according to the polling company, something. They then add their currently accepted method of allocating preferences for the minors, (before or after rounding?) and come up with a number. The fact that it just happens to be taken nearer to the actual election date has no effect whatsoever on the ‘accuracy’, which is never, ever, better than the MOE indicates. (That’s a whole book on its own).
Labor will win this election easily. Just imagine how the bookies feel. Its a two horse race, and 76% of the money is on the horse that is going to win, and they have to pay back all that money plus the winning margins, when only 24% of the bets are losers. They are feeling sick! So’s Johnny.
cheers,
Alan H
CaptainJackSparrow @ 744
Exactly – on the basis of a single Newpoll a few people suddenly forget or lose faith in logic and common sense – they have a graph like this behind them
http://possumcomitatus.files.wordpress.com/2007/11/allpollsnov231.jpg
but somehow think that by some unkown magic hundreds of thousands of people have decided to vote for Howard because…..
768
But are they Phil? Galaxy was taken early in the week.
@767 Red
Yeah, that’s why I mentioned it , I think de same ting.
Only 24 hours until the end of the Howard Government! I can’t wait! Yippee!!!!!!
LOL @ Stephen’s blog:
‘The result of this poll got me thinking, why are ACNielsen and Newspoll coming up with historic swings and others polls are not. Surely if there is an historic swing on then all the polls should be showing the same. One possible answer I came up with was union involvement. I am not sure of this but I would expect most of the workers at Newspoll and ACNielsen are union members. It would not be hard to move every 10th Coalition vote to Labor or have a list of friendly numbers to call.’
Red Under the Bed, are you saying that newspoll have changed the way they calculate preferences for this last poll?
Jeez Louise, what a bunch of pansies some people on this site are.
Every poll, every objective expert commentator, every betting market, say that Labor will not just win but win easily.
And you people are still wetting your pants, and because of what?
A couple of 52:48 polls with Labor in front! And with 44% of the primary vote. That’s 6.5% more than last time! Or the betting markets blowing Labor all the way out to $1.35. That still makes Labor the overwhelming favourite. And it’s shorter odds than Howard holding his own seat.
FFS grow some backbone.
Once again- election eve polls are the most volatile and least accurate compared to the four poll average and trends.
I am sure Possum, William, Adam and Mumble can confirm this- even Anthony if he stops by tonight.
Flash Says:
November 23rd, 2007 at 8:57 pm
K Jin.. Money talks.
I agree ! But how widespread are these numbers from internal polling. It is always stated that most of the cabinet have no access to them that they are held in a very close circle. 80 000 people worked on the Atom Bomb in WW2 and it never leaked. Yet polling that is said to be only known by 10 or less people becomes so widespread, to the extent that it is posted on blogs and 100s use it to place bets.
Centre (762). You might as well say the same thing about the betting markets. At least the polls are a democratic sample.
To those reading the tea leaves of leaders’ itineraries, why was Howard in a shopping mall in Rockie? (Capricornia, moderately safe Labor) My guess is ‘why not’, his itinerary today was designed to appeal to Qld parochial and regionalism.
My advice is the Green vote will be up in the Inner city Liberal seats, I suspect there are many Liberal voters who hate the ALP but hate Howard and these polls may well give them the excuse upon standing over the paper to vote 1 ALP, I notices something funny on my way to work this morning, not one person was reading a newspaper
Spiros, I’m not worried about the election, I’m worried about Paterson. Care to venture an opinion on that one?
HEY NOSTRADAMUS
Pick a goddam prediction and stik wit it…..it aint de middle ages no more!!!!!
mad cow 783 Libs will probably hold Patterson.
mad cow,
no, i am saying that they have changed the way they preference split from the last election.
In 04, they tried to guess instead of using 01 flows, which wouldve had them spot on in the TPP for 2004.
So now they use the 2004 flows for the 2007 TPP, but this is going to skew the result to coalition, cos the flows in 2004 are going to be nothing like the flows in 2007 because of the Green preferences due to the stark differences between the two major parties this time
I am a wai guo ren but my wife is a 24-year Australian resident zhong gua ren.
Yeah, chill pills everyone. Take the night off. The ALP has this election in the bag -miraculously enough, given the state of play 12 months back.
Show me how they can lose on 53.x%, and Ill think about changing my view.
Im out to celebrate!
On Sunday, I can assure LNP supporters this Lefty wont be rubbing it in too badly (unless you are the sort to take general whooping personally)
No ….. my special derision will be reserved for News Ltd, the GG and their dodgy little soon-to-be-exposed poll ‘modifications’.
You zero-cred creeps have got it coming! And Im looking forward to it.
Gerr, Nostradamus already picked a prediction a while back.
Graeme. What can I say but very wrong.
well that’s alright then
Noel Pearson has lost me for all time. He would rather a proven racist bigot over 30 odd years to a clean skin who has said over and over that he will govern for ALL Australians. Sold out his own people are not the words. What does he do anyway, surely we can not afford overpaid mushy political opportunists without any moral basis for what they convey representing people who generally deserve a lot better than this, or than they have ever had. Or is he just venting his anger over sucking up to the wrong guy for the whatever reason/s.
Kina,
Im a ‘foreigner’ too with a chinese mrs
This small l Liberal looks forward to Howards defeat as must as seeing Carlton win a wooden spoon
ah ok Red. Thats what I was thinking. Still doesn’t explain this last poll though.
Does anyone think the possible drift could be the small l base moving back to the Libs? I mean Rudd over the last week has said some things which wouldn’t have pleased them and they may have thought… well why should I vote for them?
We need 7 by 7pm. If we have 7 or more before SA and Queensland start we are there. It means we need just 4 from Q, considering we get NT1 and WA1.
mad cow
no it doesnt explain the poll but in no way can the libs here get excited about the Newspoll because it is plainly not that good for the coalition if the poll had been weighted correctly
If Coconut is to be returned tomorrow it will be a good win for the bookies and a bad loss for the big punting experts who have followed the election and polls closely.
772 kina – exactly, the fundamentals are solid, sure the media and the other side will play up their chances but you know, I think people on here are smart enough to know better.
We are less than 24 hours away from a new era, and Prime Minster Kevin Rudd. Savour that, not the fear that the losers are trying to instill in you.
764
Graeme Says:
I agree I live in Griffth and the Lib guy is clearly spending money. His add on the revolving billboard on the road to the Storey Bridge replaced Rudds !
I was driving back over the Storey Bridge towards Hawthorne one morning this week around 6.00 am and the Lib guy was next to me (his car was one of those full advert Jobs) so he may not even live in the area. Maybe he is just trying to earn points. After all if in the next state election he gets a ’safe’ Lib seat he could be a 1 in 6 chance of becoming leader within a few months.
Spiros @ 778
‘Onya, mate!
This yo-yoing is making me nervous. Is it possible that the silent majority have started to make themselves known? Could it be that the seeming domination of Rudd and Labor all year was really a distorted bubble in reality?
Has the silent majority been lying to the pollsters all year? That’s what it would take.
It’s possible James. Best not to worry. Nothing can be done to change the result. Worst case, this puts Labor in a truly competitive position in ‘10/’11.
Lay off Pearson. There’s no law that says that Aboriginals have to support Labor. That is presumptuous and, dare I say it, a little bit racist.
Pearson can say what he wants, and if he’s wrong, he gets called on it, same as everybody else. But calling him a sell out for supporting Howard displays a mindset that is plain stupid.
I didn’t see what was wrong with Pearson saying what he said. It was stupid of Rudd to back off the referendum. Why? What was he thinking?
I don’t know what Pearson supports. He changes his mind almost constantly.
If Labor lose this election (likely), Krudd will be lucky to last as Opposition Leader until Christmas. Dillard will be getting the knives out pronto.
On money being a great judge of things.
Why were all those, until very recently, rich folks, jumping of skyscrapers in 1929 ?
KEVIN 07!
… And I’m the youth vote.
From her handbag nostro?
ShowsOn I’d say he probably supports Indigenous people.
Thanks for that valuable contribution Nostradamus….*sigh*
Good points Marko and LTEP. I’m just surprised with the money been dropped and these polls (taken with a handful of salt) could dramatically do an about face in such a short time. Doubly so for a pretty bad week policy and news-wise for the LNP overall. It makes me think its an aberration – don’t get me wrong it will be close – but it seems almost insane that very large numbers of voters either change their mind at the last minute, or the large majority of people involved in the press could be so profoundly wrong all year.
Nosty,
Keep going. Less then 24 hours of delusion remaining.
hey guys, centrebet has just moved out from $3.05 to $3.10 for the coolition.
Nostradamus
Krudd Dillard
I think you could get a Job on a Australian Sitcom.
Pearson wants indigenous people to lead better lives than they do now. I think he talks a better game than he plays, but if he thinks John Howard is offering a better deal than Kevin Rudd, he can say so without being labelled a sell out.
If Howard wins how long before Costello stabs him in the back? Howard is already a lame duck.
Pearson is supporting Howard. He has every right to. It is on the record and there should be no distortion of this fact.
Here is an interesting polling stat
Todays Four Poll average gives the exact same seat outcome of the ACN and Newspoll from the start of the week.
81 seats to 61 seats
OI!!! You so called True Believers, Harden The F**K Up please.
C’mon is it really plausible that in the last few days, that 420,000 people have suddenly changed their vote in favor for the rodent after all the negative press the Libs have got recently.
Look to the magnificient numbers that John Stirton and ACNeilsen has provided us instead, or at least take an average and enjoy that number. The next 24 hours should be a time of happiness and joyous expectation.
i know when I’ve got my Kevin07 shirt on tomorrow, and while I am handing the HTV cards to my fellow labor worshipers, all I will be thinking is how good it is going to be waking up on Sunday morning knowing that Labor will rule the land and that the Rodent and maybe a few of his ministers have lost their jobs.
HARDEN UP BOYS & GIRLS
I am still confident of a Rudd victory. Don’t forget newspoll got it hopelessly wrong in 04. It was a headline prediction 50/50. Latham was never going to get close. Both parties knew it.
One thing for sure 52/48 now has also made it as a headline prediction.
I would just like to to put up me full prediction. 49.5-50.5 either way and 7 to 13 seats to Labor. I will eat my words tomorrow night if I am wrong, will you?
I remember when Pearson was running around looking for a safe Labor seat
Isn’t nervousness normal? tomorow we go into virtual battle….St Crispins Day…
so we wander round the campfires finding out what individual soldiers think….
we find mixed cheer and some consternation….
Coulton explains the difference between AC Neilson and Newspoll and Glaxay, its all in the preferences…ofcourse.
“Nielsen’s two-party preferred result is based on asking voters where their second preference will go. Other pollsters use the distribution of preferences at the last election to determine a final two-party preferred figure. If you apply this method to Nielsen’s final poll, you get a two-party preferred result of 56-44.”
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/a-hundred-reasons-rudd-is-in-like-flynn/2007/11/22/1195321949370.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
I don’t consider indigenous people a “what”.
Pearson is a self-contradictory sham. He calls for indigenous people to take more responsibility and then supported the NT intervention, the most paternalistic act since, well, the last one.
costello will get the knives from his handbag(pyne)
LOL liberal trolls
If Rudd wins Pearson will bend with the wind and move into Rudd’s camp. He is simply trying to do what is best for his own people and he owes nothing to either party.
No, you will.
Thanks KJin 803.
Marko, James 804/5 the ’silent majority’ is mythical. At most, there is an apolitical/uncommitted minority. They are much fewer in number than the Leibovic myth of ‘25% make up their mind in the last week’. They decide close elections (ie most of them). Laborites who remain wedded to compulsory voting without supporting decent electoral laws (caps on spending, truth in political advertising) are fools.
“796
Lose the election please Says:
November 23rd, 2007 at 9:10 pm
Does anyone think the possible drift could be the small l base moving back to the Libs? I mean Rudd over the last week has said some things which wouldn’t have pleased them and they may have thought… well why should I vote for them?”
I doubt it very strongly, and if they did, then they’ll have come back thanks to Lindsay.
Just musing on your name calling (Krudd, Dillard etc) Nostradamus, I am reminded of a Liberal Party function I was catering for (did not attend by choice – they just happened to have it at my cafe) earlier in the year, where some branch hack thought he’d coined a great term by referring to the ALP as the, wait for it:
“Rudderless Gillard”.
Went down a treat, I’m surprised the federal Libs didn’t pick up on it….:-( or not. I was also struck by how much curry we had left over from our set menu, showing the racist streak coming through – one old bloke actually said when we were handing out meals “No one’s going to want the bloody curry.”
Minister Fran Bailey also wholeheartedly agreed with a different old bloke who suggested that “there’s a lot of undesirable people coming to this country.”
Squirming in your seats, Laborites, hehehe.
ha… stephen I think most people here will have an awful lot of words to eat.
coincidentally, did you post a prediction a month or so ago when everyone else was?
I think the result will be just under 51% for the ALP (maybe 50.9%) and the Coalition with 78 seats. That was my prediction then and it is now.
The polls, I’d say, still give Rudd a good chance to pull it off. I don’t think ACN will be anywhere near the result though.
A lot less Liberals will have seats to squirm in after tomorrow.
I don’t think there is a silent majority. Labor’s campaign was weak.
Don’t take any notice of LTEP
he is a confirmed FAKE
Yes Red Under Bed, it will truly make victory sweet now. Otherwise we would have even been disappointed if it wasn’t a landslide.
I’ve got a prediction. If ACN is way out, in three years time when they are still doing political polls most people would’ve forgotten about it.
GP 836
Labor will win easily.
I don’t know if this was already posted, but on Poss’ blog:
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/11/23/polling-angst-and-therapy-thread-open-edition/#comment-6330
This explains everything about why this has been such a crazy-making day.
54-46. And you can take that to the bank. (Just not a US bank, because they’re having ahem difficulties at the moment.)
Let’s be blunt here, Pearson does not speak for the majority of Aboriginal people. Even within his own community there is considerable dissent from his views. I don’t believe he has delivered on his initial promise yet.
I agree with Spiros that Pearson “I think he talks a better game than he plays,”.
I also agree that he can support Howard if he likes. But I think he is making a big mistake alienating the Labor party in the way he has. He is going to find himself shut out of the real power game for a long time if he keep this shit up.
I think the message is clear. Win or lose, next election we must unleash the mother of ALL scare campaigns on the lousy Liberals.
I think it is racist for folks here to say that Pearson can say anything but because he is black cannot be questioned on it.
I think it is racist for folks here to say that Pearson can say anything but because he is black cannot be questioned on it.
#809 -
“It was stupid of Rudd to back off the referendum. Why? What was he thinking?”
As I’ve already noted, LTEP, it was probably a desperate ploy to win back the socially conservative “working families” who were thinking of voting Labor but have in the last few days decided to stick with the Government.
Still on the subject of indigenous affairs, Krudd has also started sliding around his promise to say sorry to the stolen generation. This is part of an interview on 3AW earlier today:
3AW HOST: Will you use the word “sorry”?
KEVIN RUDD: Well, the substance of it will be sorry, apology, but frankly if you ask me for the precise form of language.
3AW HOST: No, I’m asking for that one word, because this is where the Prime Minister has been targeted. Will you use the word “sorry”?
KEVIN RUDD: Yeah, I said in the debate against the Prime Minister at the beginning of the campaign that we’re elected to form the next government of Australia, I will as Prime Minister of the country of course express an apology, and I make no bones with that.
3AW HOST: But the Prime Minister has already done that. Will you say sorry?
KEVIN RUDD: Well apology is sorry, it’s the same thing.
And then:
KEVIN RUDD: I thought you were asking me what the precise form of language to be used.
3AW HOST: Oh, I see.
KEVIN RUDD: And that’s what I was … you know, being cautious about because we haven’t framed that, but of course the substance of it is sorry, that’s correct.
I’m having a laugh about all this too,Labor will win.
K jin, party polling is NOT shared with anyone,only the close campaign Cttee and the leadership see it.Trust me,I do know.
Anyone who sees they see party polling is not being truthful and are deling with rumour and nods and winks only.To share this info with anyone outside the circle is death.
For anyone who listened,Laurie Oakes nailed it,pessimism in the coalition camp until the rumour of newspoll then elation,and the grasping at straws.
You know the story they always allude to on this site.Namely,Newspoll is Wenck’s 12th Army on its way to save Hitler and his cronies in encircled Berlin in ‘45.
Trouble is Wenck never came,and Berlin fell.Wenck assisted the survivors of the smashed 9th Army to safety in the west.
No one is saving the coalition either.
Yes don’t take any notice of me. I’m an illusion.
I agree Piping Shrike but noone agrees with me. In the end though if Rudd wins the campaign will be called a good one. Won’t change my mind.
Bookie still says Labor.
http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/bookie-says-labor-favoured-to-win-easily/20071123-1cer.html
I am with you Coconut Is A Coward.
Is Newspoll about selling papers, as tomorrow it will be splashed all over the news ltd papers. I smell a poll aimed to sell papers.
Libs will win. 1-3 seat majority.
Red Under The Bed @ 823.
I agree.
Its time to press on & finish the job if you’ve been helping the campaign.
I like to think that there’s a real chance that our contribution tomorrow could push things our way, so be positive, confident & friendly to people as you hand out the HTV cards & don’t worry about what might happen.
Well Labor had the nuclear scare available, but it wasn’t used much, was it?
Geriatric Non Entity you are funny. So one “good” poll and it is a confirmed trend.
Your mouth is bigger than your brain…he he
so all the libs orcs and trolls are out tonight stirring the pot and creating as much mayhem as their nine year old minds will allow
patience fellow laborites -the red cordial will wear off soon
What did Rudd say about indiginous issues? I must have missed it all!
836
Generic Person Says:
Squirming in your seats, Laborites, hehehe.
No.
.
.
Stephen, I have no problem with people giving their honest opinion no matter how right or wrong it is. But you just make stuff up and lie thru your teeth so who cares what you think. So tell us all again how your Dad gives you internal polling from both the Labor and Liberal parties.
F Y I.
Bookies and how they make money out of you’n'me.
Northern Territory Lateline interviewed the boss of Lassiters.
He reckons about 10 mill has already been bet on these elections.
Philosophy is that roughly half of the punters vote coalition so the challenge for them is to turn the price out to the point where people can no longer resist and away we go. People see it tumbling and follow along. Nice work if you can get it. They don’t want hold any more on the Labor camp thank you.
if we were on meebo i could block out ltep – damn
does anyone know why Anthony Green has Victoria giving a seat to the ALP with a state swing of just 0.2%.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/
I thought the only marginals in VIC were held by 5% (ie Deakin/ McMillan) but the seat count moves if VIC moves to ALP by a twitch
Has there been a re-distribution I missed?
Oh, by the way, I just love Galaxy and Newspoll tonight. Can’t wait for the Morgan marginals
(In Danish Kina = China)?
I thought Kina = PNG Dollar ?
What was Workchoices but a scare campaign? It just made that fraud Howard into a conviction politician again. Stupid.
piping shrike you sound like i told you so
My goodness and Labor is ready for government if you drop your bundle like this over aboriginal reconciliation?
You know i ordered Kevin07 shirts for my kids and they still havent arrived
Thats it- whoever gives my kids a T-shirt, I will vote for them tomorrow.
Particularly if its Mia Handshin and its the one she is wearing.
Stephen, just had a look at your blog. Popular, ain’t it? NOT. One whole comment. And that wasn’t exactly gushing support for your views.
Piping Shrike I have very much enjoyed your analysis. V.Perceptive.
OK now this post has full on degenerated,
Hope William calls tomorrow’s post ‘D-Day’ since he’s been d-daying this and that for ages. It’ll lend an extra sense of drama.
Sleep well dear friends, i will see you on the field tomorrow and we will Ruddy our foes through with our sharpe gillards. Until then sleep well this crispin’s day eve of night….
FAO Tories-What on earth is Ratty doing scurrying around in safe Qld Tory seats the day before the poll? The marginals are shot? Damage limitation? He was suppossed to be somewhere else but had a ’senior’ moment? All of the above?
Edward, fortunately the fillet of fish (no backbone, no guts) Labor supporters won’t be the ones forming the government.
Your very wise B from B. Good analogy.
The WorkChoices campaign could be recycled next election. The Liberals are permanently marked as the WorkChoices party. It could be dramatically ramped up to be very very scary.
No, I’m not anticpating the result. Just saying given how weak the government was, Labor should have done better. I said this a week ago on the blog but I disagree with the view that Labor’s campaign was better than the government’s.
Su Hu
“Did anyone here PM tonight. ABC reporter travelling with Howard said after people had shaken his hand and thanked him for the ‘good years’ some said directly to his face that they wouldn’t be voting for him because they wanted a change. Others were telling the reporter after Howard went ahead that altho they still liked him it was time for a change. She said this had been a comment heard over and over again. But then I heard Howard saying words to the effect that he could feel it ‘the love’ and he would win.”
Bit like the Godfather, a kiss on each cheek, a hug, a pat on the back and the smile and wave as they put you in the car for your last drive out into the desert.
LTEP,
I think there is still enough “time for a change” to swing it but if Labor has lost it Generation X will be the culprits.
Kina is the word for China in Danish, Norwegian and Swedish…
Just got back. We haven’t heard the newspoll primaries for sure yet have we?
LTEP you’d better be here on sunday so we can all grill you for being plain stupid/a troll.
Workchoices scare campaign?
theres are tens or even hundreds of thousands of people negatively affected by workchoices all over the country.
how many people do you think are negativley effected by Joe MacDonald?
I have about 100-150 aboriginal clients/friends and not one of them votes Coalition and never have voted Coalition. To think that a prick like Pearson is going to sway the aboriginal vote is ludacris. Aboriginals know damn well that Howard couldnt give a shit about them. Labor will implement their own policies to help the Aboriginals, howards constitution referendum is dumb.
Recognising aboriginals in the constitution, like howard is proposing, isnt going to help them feed their kids, stop drinking grog or sniffing petrol, or dying early from diabetes or heart disease or fondling their nephews or nieces, commiting suicide or wagging school.
LTEP,
I think there is still enough “time for a change” to swing it but if the dirty rotten scumbags libs has lost it Generation X,yand z will be the culprits.
and good on them
The videos on the GG’s web site are just plain funny. First there’s Shanahan:
http://publish.vx.roo.com/australian/ausvideopage/?Channel=Politics&ClipId=1402_071123-shanahan&bitrate=300&Format=wmp
He takes the most aberrant poll number in favour of Labor from near the start of the campaign (58-42) and the latest one that is the most aberrant away from Labor (52-48), and concludes that Team Howard has run a great campaign – despite acknowledging that Labor had the better of pretty much every week of the campaign.
And then Sol Lebovic speaks in tongues:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22458164-5013871,00.html
Because the 4.8% swing to Labor in the current poll happens to be exactly what they need to win power, that means many voters are going to make their mind up at the last minute. Que?
don’t think so ashley, just lots of stupidity, nervousness and bickering….giving me a headache…
I agree Piping Shrike… I’ve said on here a few times that the ALP’s campaign team should be fired even if they win.
Seriously they had so much more to work with with WorkChoices. I would’ve built it around an issue of trust and whether you trust them to treat you and your children right in the future. To me, WorkChoices was a strong example of abused trust that you don’t get handed very often and the absence of the fairness test and subsequent addition was handing Labor a free kick.
I thought the Coalition’s campaign was very weak too. Go for Growth is just a terrible slogan. Most of their initiatives were completely forgettable and Howard is looking and acting his age.
However, I think Rudd has stumbled quite badly at several points and really needed to hammer home his humanity.
LTEP, See I told you the Senator wanted you out of country.
BBD,
The perception of WorkChoices was worse than the reality.
I saw some young ppl at my prepoll who voted howard and when i gave them my labor HTV, they refused. When i politely and accidently impulsvely said why not vote for change, they said “because its gay”.
Hi Aussie,I served 2 terms on the Queensland Administrative Committee for the Party.In that time NEVER saw internal polling for either state or federal polling.I know ppl on the current committee,they see nothing either.
Just blowhard stuff,rumour and innuedo only.
I’m a bit of a history buff so know my Third Reich stuff.LOL!!!!!
Anyone?
Why does our Lord anthony green’s calculator give a seat to the ALP in Victoria after just 0.2% state swing?
ESj- not to people who are effected and not by as much as the perception of Union Thugs
Nick, I’m not really concerned with what people think of me. I don’t come to this website to comment on other posters and I’d really appreciate it if they’d stop commenting on me. People criticise the Liberal Party for attacking the messenger… well have a look at yourselves.
Geez just got back from some late night shopping (my wife told me to get off the bl**dy computer!!). Some of you guys are acting like this is a footy game and the betting market is the score!
The betting market at this point is irrelevant? What you think they know something we don’t?
You really think over Australia at the moment there’s this mass movement of people simultaneously changing their minds.
lol
Actually you’re right, there a mass of people switching from The Biggest Loser to Shall We Dance.
I have never been able to tell if I am an old gen-X or a young baby boomer…..
Paul K @ 862
My Father was a state member of parliament in QLD, seat of Nerang, my last name is Connor look it up. As for the Labor polling everybody has access to it you just need to know which papers to look in and when. What alot of my prediction is based on however is maths. I am a maths teacher at Victoria Point SHS. Ring me on Monday when you have lost, it is in the phone book. The maths is hard to explain but when I have time I will go through the whole thing on my blog whether I am right or wrong. I have not been wrong yet.
Historic Election, those young people are correct. Change for change’s sake is pointless, if not gay.
Squiggle because the seat of Isaacs is held by Labor but has a retiring member. If you factor in the ‘retiring member’ factor it is notionally a Liberal seat but wouldn’t be counted as a Labor gain.
There’s a seat currently held by Labor that is notionally a Liberal seat due to a re-distribution.
Sorry Big Blind Dave, Gillard said recently that well under 10% of employment contracts are AWAs. They have been a flop, employers can pay less under indiviudal contracts under awards.
Business had no need of IR reform. It was only to give Howard a sense of agenda.
People who have been put on AWAs have obviously been put on them to screw them. But they haven’t been as screwed as those who were taken off collective bargaining agreements and put on individual contracts under awards, something which Labor FULLY supports. Let’s cut the crap here.
Ed STJ, try telling my mate who was paid $12 an hour on an AWA with no penalty rates (even though she often worked shifts between midnight and 6am), neither for public holidays (when she was ALWAYS expected to be available) in a chronically understaffed Pancake Parlour, that her perception of her job was worse than the reality. You actually make me sick.
You Tories are a scream the way you arrive here en masse. Its like after youve finished your Sky news ‘issue for the day’ voting for the day you decide ‘its time to go over the the Poll Bludger and stir up some lefties’ muhahahahah
Face it boys and girls once Ratty is out the door tomorrow night all youve got to lookk forward to is a generation of infighting, irrelevance, fighting off or joining the religious nuts that infest your organisation, and stirring up lefties on the Internet. Sad, sad little Tories.
thanks shows on!!
Which one?
The majority of employers have no interest in “ripping” of or cutting peoples wages BBD, if you think about it I am sure you will agree.
The union thing was never about scaring people about a return to the 70’s it was about showing how out of touch Labor is.
The perception thing is poision, I read an investment newsletter which is basically for self administered super funds, the newsletter author who is a guru to these people basically put the knife into Labor weeks ago – people like that who are apparently non-political are very very damaging.
You might all scoff but people like this have enormous clout on peoples thinking.
Mr Squiggle 893
you’re right.. totally weird.. whats AG doing
If the lousy Liberals win, and the expected economic downturn occurs during the next term, WorstChoices will do its dirtiest work on people. It would thus make the perfect subject for the mother of all scares next election.
The beauty is, it is valid material with no use-by date. The lousy Libs will have to wear WorkChoices forever, just like Labor has had to wear 17% interest rates for decades.
thanks showson 901
All this wisdom from right-thinkers . . . and all based on Murdoch polls!
can anyone fill me on what group v and group z are on the nsw senate ticket?
{people like that who are apparently non-political are very very damaging.}
Only to Tories who read financial newsletters ESJ, I’d suggest.
EsJ, everytime, at every place I’ve ever worked, I’ve never had the company/organisation come up to the workers and say, it’s been 3 years, you guys deserve a pay rise.
OK, maybe they don’t like “ripping off” or “cutting” wages, but they sure as sh*t don’t like ever raising them.
You can get some great odds on Labor at the moment… 1.37 at centrebet. Pity the bookies will be closed tomorrow, because I have a feeling that if the papers put out their “cliffhanger!” headline the odds on labor would shoot up to around 1.50.
yeh good work showson except your wrong
Isaacs.
Hence if you start the calculator at 0% swing for Victoria, Isaacs appears in the Liberal column. But even the most trivial swing will keep it Labor. I don’t think there are any seats where the Coalition is achieving a swing to it.
Piping shrike you talk generally in the percentage of population this and the thousands of those.
I deal with this shit every day on a one-to-one basis and I know how people feel when they are sacked one day and their job is advertised cheaper the next.
I know how parents feel when they have to sign an aproval for thier kids AWA when they know it sucks and they know the kids want the job anyway.
I know how it feels for a new worker to be paid less than everyone else in the workplace doing the same job because they are on an AWA.
I know how it feel when someone thinks they can actually negotiate an AWA but when they ask the new employer to bargain, they never get a second meeting- or the job!
You cut the crap- you sound like the rest of the disconnected idiots that study politics but never meet real people.
Stephen,lol!!!Arrogance is hubris. Two mates of mine are maths masters at private schools as well,their viewpoint differs from yours.Lots of their fellow teachers are changing from Liberal to Labor,what do you make of that!!!LOL!!!
No, I’m right.
Its Antony’s correction for sitting member advantage
Shrike, you are the original and the best.
But on ‘WorkChoices’ you (and Peter B) miss the point. First, Labor needed a fillip. Second it matters to enough people, both ‘nice’ parents with kids being screwed in hospitality-jobs, and blue collar workers who’ve voted Howard in some recent elections, to be THE decisive factor if the election proves close.
A close election win for Labor is what the unions are hoping for. (A loss is their nightmare, a Ruddslide is a pyrrhic victory for them).
Howard would have played WC up as proof of his mana regardless of how Labor or the unions played it. Indeed, had they not stressed the unFairness of it, he would have sailed through the artifical middle, claiming it as both micro-economic miracle and a balanced, modernising policy. As you’ve argued, he has had little else this term to point to.
Employers never put workers on different contracts without trying to reduce wages. Which is why some use AWAs. What some people don’t like to admit though is they can do it better with an individual employment contract that Labor totally supports. Labor first, working people second.
The main problem with workchoices, I’ve always said, is that when the economy goes bad the lowest paid workers will get badly exploited.
Think about it. When the economy is good and unemployment low, the power is in the hands of the worker. But when economic conditions are poor, you can’t afford to walk away from a job and unscrupulous employers *will* screw people over… courtesy of workchoices.
WTF are you going on about? Do you make this crap up in your sleep?
.
.
Fine Stephen. You have access to everything. Did George Bush happen to give you the nuclear launch codes when he was here for APEC as well? And everywhere you go people are falling over themselves to tell you that they were going to vote for Rudd but have now changed to Howard. Lucky man to attract so many people so easily. Frankly I don’t care if your predictions are right or wrong. The people will decide tomorrow one way or another. It’s all the BS that I object to.
910-After 11 wasted years and the prospect of opposition for a long long time the Tory supporters will fasten themselves to any news, poll, fortune telling, astrological chart, entrail reading, tarot card,tea leave reading that gives them a glimmer of hope. All the bravado here is piss and wind.They know their times up deep down in those dark little places of the min where you wouldnt want to go, they know the pary is over.
I think workchoices particually affects the young, Generic Person
good on ya big blind dave
I can’t see anything other than a slaughter for the LNP. People do want a change from Howard, it has been obvious all year. AND Rudd is the reasonable alternative.
AND if your in Qld a couple of local guys is just the thing and, it is here Rudd will simply get a ‘tsunami’ of undecided Qld votes. A great number of people don’t know who their local member is, when they vote they will vote the party and, at the moment that is Rudd Labor. AND Qld see themselves as the best state so why shouldn’t they have the PM and Treasurer….
This Galaxy and Newspoll nonsense is seeming more and more like a method to stop the undecideds rupturing to Labor and maybe to get some wavering ex-Liberal voters to come back.
Labor will get 90+ seats in a masacre. I nominated 53.7 before but reckon now it is going to be 54+
I wonder if it crosses peoples mind that the LNP, this whole ‘regime’ for lack of a better word, in less than 22 hours will be gone. I mean extinct! The LNP will be decimated, wiped off the electoral map across the country.
The Tories come on here and talk their rubbish but truth is they are like the dinosaurs prior to the comet hit, they got no idea. Enjoy the end days, well day now, because after that as the Big O would sing ‘it’s oooovvveerrrrr’.
Yes he did, they’re in the members only section of his blog.
no your wrong its antony’s allowance forced retirement of ALP sitting member
The big question is this???
If we ignore Latham, and Rudd is better than Beazley, and there is no Tampa or 9/11, surely to God the only logical conclusion you can make is that Rudd wins in 07???
Geriatric Non Entity 399 who would you turn gay for?
Could the governments focus on the economy be their downfall?
HAHAHAHHAHAHAHAH
Loser.
Amen to that Capt’n.
932 spoken like a true prodigy
Bob from Bonner @ 918
I can only say about the people I have met. Maybe it was the constant texting by the QTU that changed their vote back to Howard. I just know they are now going to vote Liberal.
932- CENTER
either that or we can all believe the polls which say Rudd wins- then debate the margin.
your the loser goose
#885 Reds – yes I also work with a lot of Aboriginal people. I am sure most of the senior people that I know have voted for Labor or preferenced them via the Greens. They also agree with Pearson on some things but disagree on others. My impression is the preference to Labor is stronger this time than it was in 2004 when there was a far more detectable ‘pox on both houses’ attitude.
Check the sportspunter.com betting agencies comparisons
The coalition betting plunge is over. The betting agencies odds are now going back out $3.15-$3.55 for the Coalition. Normality is being restored.
You know what the real joke is,even if Rudd gets 15 seats the ALP still win,as Katter has already indicated he’ll support Rudd.LOL!!!!!!!!!
Graeme, Workchoices could have been used, but it should have been done better. Keating got the tone right when he called it a piece of bitchy vindictiveness by Howard, which it was. It shows the unpleasantness of it without lying to Australian people that it is a major IR reform. It is a flop. As for Costello taking it further! I seem to have an impression of Costello being a sham who talks big in closed doors and then falls apart under pressure and is incapable of taking anything further. Am I the only one with that impression?
The fact is that Rudd (and Gillard) are the smartest political animals in the ALP. It didn’t look like his campaign.
Stephen you seem to have a problem with the unions. I have to say I found your assertion that union members have been rigging the Newspoll and ACN results rather bizarre.
Do you back away from that claim now?
This coming from someone who can’t spell “you’re”!?
I just finished watching Agenda: The Last Word
Never in my life have I wanted to punch the TV screen as much as I wanted to tonight
McCabe from the Telegraph said Howard would win, based on the last Newspoll.
Milne, Farr and Speers picked Labor in a close one
They are saying that Newspoll indicates a narrowing
Don’t they read Pollbludger! LOL
Fiddle with the weightings and you get what ever result you want….
He had a discussion with some unionists and that is what they told him they were doing.
Went past the National Tally Room, a shirt load of trucks with TV station logos on them. Wanted to go in a have a bit of a snoop, but it has been all fenced off (it’s just a big showground pavilion).
No doubt Antony is inside thinking “Damn, I wish I was blogging on Pollbludger now”)
Just now on Skynews Agenda. Reluctantly, very reluctantly:
David Speers – Labor by 5
Glen Milne – Labor, no number
Malcolm Farr – Labor, ditto
Helen McCabe – Coal by a whisker
There you go.
946 Sir Eggo – so the poisoned dwarf jumped ship? wow
950 JHIAC
Yep, bagged the way the Libs campaign was done too….
If Speers is still thinking ALP win that would suggest the Libs haven’t been able to give him any great “inside polling news” (which let’s face it, they would)
944- LTEP
Union members rig the polls?
I work for the ACTU and I can tell you that every union member in australia has been told that if they are called by a polling company to say they are voting Libs.
This has been happening since 2005 and since members make up 20% of voters and we told them last weekend to be honest from now on but only with ACN, can you see the power we weild?
WTF? From a Newspoll saying he is behind by nearly 600,000 votes, this so called political commentator says he is the favourite to win!?
No wonder political commentary in Australia has such low standards, they let clowns like that on TV.
Stephen,same here.They are just convinced as you are.My workplace is also full of Libs changing their vote as are some of my neighbours.Anecdotals all,but very interesting.
Ah, McCabe you’ve done it again.
OK so focus on our lord Anthony’s write up on Isaacs for a second
Its the seat where the Somali immigrant issues were played on by Kevin Andrews earlier this year
The sitting ALP candidate is retiring, no doubt to make room for a union official of some sort
Maybe we should anticipate a swing to the Libs there
aha aha aha!! ahem
Re Isaacs – I think you will find if you stop the calculator factoring in retiring members, it no longer treats the seat as currently notional Liberal.
To quote Adam Smith “In the long run everything is reduced to a punchline”
Tomorrow night Rudd will be the new Emperor of Lang park !! Sorry Wal
10 hours to go….
BBD, read this post from Stephen’s blog:
http://ozdemocracy.com/?p=49
“The result of this poll got me thinking, why are ACNielsen and Newspoll coming up with historic swings and others polls are not. Surely if there is an historic swing on then all the polls should be showing the same. One possible answer I came up with was union involvement. I am not sure of this but I would expect most of the workers at Newspoll and ACNielsen are union members. It would not be hard to move every 10th Coalition vote to Labor or have a list of friendly numbers to call.”
wow- what a fool
as I said it was a forced retirement
944
It was just one of a number of possibilities. I just think it maybe something to think about. The polls have had Labor way ahead for a long time and do not match internal polling. There must be a reason for this. I just came up with one possible one. Goodnight all I will be back when the results are in.
Shanahan’s latest tactic.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/dennisshanahan/index.php/theaustralian/comments/politically_correct_will_stay_in_the_doghouse/
‘Rudd’s a reactionary so we are going to win anyway’.
Centrebet came in to 3.05 for coalition about an hour ago, now back out to 3.30
Grog 956 – classic
mad cow @ # 911
There is no Group Z. The last group is Group Y, followed by the Ungrouped column. Ungrouped are independents with no above the line box.
Group V are described as Independents on other Parties HTV cards. Unfortunately, I can’t find any other info about them.
I thought it was the case that when you move every 10th Coalition vote to Labor the Da Vinci Code is solved.
i have to say that Poll bludger has been a fantastic source of, by and large, insightful and entertaining commentary on Australia’s version of democracy – which I must say is a rare commodity in 2007. The modern version of the Hyde Park soapbox – very reassuring. Tomorrow we enter new period of the Australian story let’s make sure we make the most of it!
LOL!
What an f’ing conspiracy theorist. If Howard loses are you going to be taken away in a UFO?
They’ve just put Stephen’s straightjacket back on and given him his medication.
Does anybody here still think Labor will win Robertson tomorrow?
I believe our own Antony tipped it as a retain.
For Labor, WorkChoices can be the gift that keeps giving, campaign after campaign.
grog @ 968: hahahahahahahaha
Mind you, we voted nearly two weeks ago. It was pretty tense at the booths I worked on between us and the libs. I don’t expect it will be any better tomorrow. There is always a battle for htv worker top dog status at each contested booth. It can be very entertaining.
Nah Rx, Most employers treat their workforce well except if your Grog’s boss it seems.
ESJ, did you know Belinda Neal used to be in the Shadow Ministry?
941 Red Under the Bed
You’re right, mate.
The bets on the LNP are just specking. A decent punter could have made a bucketload of money out of this election with all the fluctuations – getting on Labor at anywhere between $1.30 and $2.00, and then covering off on the LNP at $4.00 to $5.00.
Interesting that despite the shift in overall odds, very little change in seat by seat. Portlandbet still showing 82 to Labor, Centrebet (if my arithmetic is correct) 80. And some big plunges on Labor candidates in NSW (Robertson and Page in particular). Fair bit of money for LNP candidates in Labor seats in WA, though.
The other interesting one is Cobb – there’s some bloke called Priestley up against him in Calare who’s been specked from double figures into $4.00. Anyone know anything about him?
Stephen is just ridiculous. I too work in a state high school, a bit further north than him and to say that teachers in schools are voting for the Coalition is simply ridiculous nonsense. Any teacher in a state high school in Queensland could tell you that the overwelming majority of teachers are well and truly on the side of Labor. And what’s more, I do actually get out to other schools very frequently in my role.
This is the first election I can recall where there wasn’t a resigned attitude among teachers that they would vote for Labor with little expectation of a win. This time there is a real movement towards Labor in Queensland which I have never seen before. People seem to be talking about Rudd as “one of us” and there is certainly an enthusiasm among semi-committed Labor voters that hasn’t been obvious before. All the talk of there being a great mass of uncommitted voters in Queensland is rubbish.
Almost noone in Queensland is undecided and what is more the decision was made weeks, if not months ago. Stephen and his ilk can talk and talk about what they claim to be happening but it simply bears no relationship to the reality.
No, if as Kina points out there has been no impact from the scary ‘Ed Wood’ ads, then the result is not in doubt. There has been absolutely nothing at all to engender any turning from the ALP back to ’safety’ . The whole campaign has confirmed the desirability of dumping JWH. Rudd’s last minute softening on some issues like the referendum and boat people won’t lose any votes but may win some waverers on the right.
The only conclusion, given the solid history of the polls throughout the year is a landslide. My tip last night (with the help of Antony’s tool) was 104 ALP/ 44 LNP/ 2 othr. Tonight, after an evening beginning with slight doubt, what followed was a period of reflection and re-assessment, which lead on to renewed confidence, and too what is now keen anticipation for tomorrow…
Everyone go to bed early so you are fresh and ready for your stint at your respective booths!
LTEP I heard a rumour that Union bosses own ACN. Is there any truth to that?
as for betting odds- a heck of a lot of punters have been holding their money back for just such an occassion.
Wait until just before the elction where the maximum amount of narrowing has occurred and election eve polls are all over the place as per usual- add to that the amount of dead money from dumb punters that hear all about people betting and want to put a bet on like thier mates, but chose the one that pays best.
Then get your money on ALP with better value.
Well, you must admit there are plenty of left-leaning conspiracy theorists on here too.
ESJ that’s not true. If you ask most people they’ve had one ‘mongrel boss’ in their lifetime.
# 964
Shanahan’s on the bottle again
btw LTEP – you are scum !
960
Lose the election please Says:
November 23rd, 2007 at 10:01 pm
BBD, read this post from Stephen’s blog:
http://ozdemocracy.com/?p=49
“The result of this poll got me thinking, why are ACNielsen and Newspoll coming up with historic swings and others polls are not. Surely if there is an historic swing on then all the polls should be showing the same. One possible answer I came up with was union involvement. I am not sure of this but I would expect most of the workers at Newspoll and ACNielsen are union members. It would not be hard to move every 10th Coalition vote to Labor or have a list of friendly numbers to call.”
Christ, what utter bollocks.
When I was out shopping tonight I felt like yelling out in the shopping centre at all the people to “Stop surging back to Howard!!!!”
Then I realised these poor people were unaware of the forces going on around them. So I bought Local Hero on DVD for $6 and felt much better.
sorry – ‘to’ , not ‘too’ in last line
Barry, I named them Z. Still love to know what they stand for
983- mongrel bosses
I strongly believe that more people have had a mongrel boss than a negative experience with a union official
One fault with this blog is that all the sporting analogies are to the VFL. That is the so Howard and the past. We have seen the future up here in Queensland with Rudd and we are well statisfed !
Go the Broncos !
I vaguely remember something to that effect LTEP. I just have to post this one more time, its so good:
Belinda has lived in Woy Woy Bay with husband John for over 20 years. Together they have raised their two sons on the Central Coast.
Belinda has experience as a Gosford City Councilor and as a Senator. Her priorities have always been local jobs, roads, services and infrastructure. She has a practical working knowledge of government to offer the electorate of Robertson.
Belinda established and ran a small business in Erina. Belinda knows that viable local businesses and a strong economy mean more local jobs.
She was a Foundation Board member of Central Coast Mariners, and is deeply committed to the Umina United Soccer Club. Belinda has been involved in many local groups including the Community Tenancy Scheme, the Central Coast Women’s Health Centre and Child Abuse Prevention Services.
Belinda’s work and life experiences will provide fresh thinking for the Central Coast. She will be a strong local voice and a vital part of Kevin Rudd’s team.
BBD,
How many officials in your union have beer guts?
Does anyone think Lateline will cary the Newspoll Primary?
I read earlier posts that said LNP was ahead, but I just don’t believe them
Hey people. There’s no reason to be calling anyone ’scum’. That’s pretty nasty, and I hope it’s not coming from a Labor voter.
To all you closet Liberals out from the woodwork tonight: Enjoy Howard’s last night, I look forward to reading your posts tomorrow after the greatest Labor landslide in history. I wonder how you’ll feel about your precious galaxy & newspolls at around 6.45pm tomorrow night? Ha ha ha!
Mr Squiggle, the Newspoll primaries are as follows:
ALP: 44, Coalition: 43 Green: 7 Other: 6
ESJ, ive seen you post this acouple of times now. i dont get it, can you explain?
I dont work for a particular union ESJ- mostly i am the one with the beer gut
Well fellow bludgers it is time for this little growler to sign off for the election. All my head bands are neatly folded and the chant of Tora! Tora! Tora! is well practised as I prepare for the battle tomorrow.
To all the Libs, Greens and other configurations, I hope you lose. However, I wish you well in the future.
For the Labor people, the Newspoll is regarded as a crock by all insiders of all persuasions. A comfortable victory beckons. Stay focussed, stay confident and continue working till six o’clock.
It has been a long journey, but this song always inspieres me to go on.
Cheers everyone.
http://au.youtube.com/results?search_query=you%27ll+never+walk+alone&search=Search
That’s ok EsJ, lucklily I had a union goon to help with negotiations.
The point is if you have a bad boss you leave or join a union. You dont need a $200 million dollar machinery which still doesnt do anything about the bad boss.
Edward StJohn
How many conservatives have brains ?
Can “the senator” tie his shoe laces ?
news.com.au poll Howard is kicking ass with over 8000 votes in total.
Squiggle, the Labor candidate in Isaacs is Mark Dreyfus QC, a barrister. He’ll be Attorney General in a couple of years.
Good night, nervous nellies and Liberal stirrers. Let me leave you with this thought.
No political party that has received 52% of the 2PP vote has ever lost a federal election.
Still not convinced?
No political party that has received 51% of the 2PP vote has ever lost a federal election.
Does anybody really think that a party that gets 57% by a respected pollster 2 days before an election is going to lose that election?
By this time tomorrow night, John Howard will be gone into the darkness whence he came. And Jeannette will be gone with him, thank Christ.
ESJ- dont understand your beer gut question or the machinery statement
The Senator has Italian loafers. Problems with shoelaces avoided that way.
That could only come from a heathen northerner. They are analogies to the AFL. The AUSTRALIAN Football League.
Dan
Gavin Preistly was endorsed by Peter Andren. Also, lot of people who used to help Andren with his campaign are helping Gavin. I think Andren (perhaps with the help of Tony Windsor) set up a bit of a network of independents. It had nothing to do with policy, more about ways to spruik the benefits of independent candidates and how to effectively campaign – that sort of thing. Gavin comes from this network I believe.
In any case, Peter Andren was going to run for the Senate but he annointed Gavin his successor in Calare. I guess he is a very slight chance because the ALP will run dead and Priestly may be able to hang on to some of Andrens voters in the eastern areas of the seat.
Still tip Cobb to win easily though.
I am about to retire to bed, long day tomorrow
Final prediction, ALP win, 93 seats
I give best wishes to all those who are giving out HTVs, or getting involved in this election, or even showing their passion in taking a keen interest in this election.
Looking on this site over the past 6 months leading up to this election has maintained my sanity, entertained me as well kept me informed on Australian politics in a way no media outlet could
For those coalition supporters who post, although I disagree with you views, I admire the fact you come on this blog and express them, even though you are extremely outnumbered here. I see you as my opponent, not my enemy, I hope you guys see me the same way.
For the Labor supporters out there, keep up the fight until the stroke of 6pm tomorrow. It could be still up in the air. I don’t want to get cocky, but things could be looking extremely good for us.
Finally, to William Bowe, the man who singlehandedly kept my sanity by keeping this site going through technical issues, bandwidth issues and some of the naming calling bun fights that have occurred, I extend my deepest and most humble thanks.
As for me, I’m giving out HTVs in Wilberforce tomorrow. Looking forward to it.
Best wishes to all
SirEggo
PS I’m not leaving the blog or anything like that. It’s just that the election is tomorrow, and I felt this had to be said.
If anyone wants to play with some new toys, please see my new IRC and Meebo chat room post.
Joe Hockey does not have a beer gut. It is something else entirely
The Senator is a loafer !
Priestley in Calare is running as an independent and has the support of the late Peter Andren’s partner. there is a suspicion that there may be a strong sympathy vote in the eastern half of the electorate – the original area represented by Andren.
If Priestley can keep ahead of the ALP candidate and there is a drop in the National vote then he might have an outside chance of knocking off Cobb, the National member originally representing the Parkes electorate.
Joe Hockey does not have a brain
Beazley 1998
LTEP,
Thank you!!!
Now just wating on the Morgan marginals number?
LTEP Are you in Melbourne Ports?
I just got a very shmick pamphlet in my mailbox from the libs talking about only the Green’s policies, unlike any other adds on TV..a very specific piece of advertising
WOndering if anyone else got the same
EsJ, they weren’t bad bosses. The job I’m at now does not have a bad boss. I like my job. I don’t want to leave. And because I’m not on pollbludger at work, my productivity is high.
But let me tell you they fought the staff every freaking step of the way to stop ANY increase in ANY aspect of our wages and conditions.
You also don’t give the bad boss more power over their employees.
It’s easy enough to say you can leave if you don’t like your boss… but some people just don’t have that option. What do you do in the meantime if you need to pay rent etc.? How about if you live in a small country town?
My dad lives in a smallish country town and works at an abattoir. All the staff there have been forced onto AWAs that make them work Saturdays, say they can’t have shorter working days on Fridays etc. He’s chosen to work their on a casual basis so he doesn’t have to sign the AWAs. However this means he gets no sick leave, annual leave etc.
To be honest, I don’t even know why anyone cares about polls at the moment… voting starts in a matter of hours.
We are pretty much here.
Forget the polls 2000 people sample here or there, it’s all nonsense at this stage, a multimillion person sample starts in a matter of hours.
BBD
a lot of union officials dont look like contemporary australia and unfortunately most people dont respect fatties – witness the attitude to Beazley.
The machinery is the industrial relations commission etc I’d support something like Keating suggested in June , a deregulated system with no bias either way against collective or individual action. removing that and breaking the link with the ALP might allow you guys to survive but it would be catch and kill your own.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/23/2099491.htm
“Home loan affordability hits 20-year low
By finance reporter Adrian Thirsk
The Real Estate Institute of Australia (REIA) says home loan affordability is the lowest it has been in more than 20 years.
Its September quarter measure of affordability shows that 36.6 per cent of family income is needed to meet average home loan repayments.
That is the worst outcome since the REIA started publishing affordability figures 22 years ago.”
AUSTRALIANS! PATRIOTS! DON’T RISK IT WITH RUDD! YES, WE’VE WELL AND TRULY SCREWED IT, BUT HE’D HAVE TO BE WORSE BECAUSE HE’S AN UNION THUG (AMALGAMATED AL QAEDA METALWORKERS UNION) WHO EATS HIS OWN EARWAX, AND HIS DEPUTY IS A RED HAIRED LEZZER WITH A STRING OF BAD BOYFRIENDS THAT MAKES PRINCESS DI LOOK GOOD! ONLY WE HAVE THE EXPERIENCE TO NAVIGATE THROUGH HARD TIMES! WHY? BECAUSE WE CREATED THEM!
No, ShowsOn, Beazley didn’t quite get 51%.
Good bye.
Re the ridiculous claim about union members influencing results in poling companies – in 30 years working in research I’ve never come across any. Interviewers are casuals – many students and some retireds. Hardly your typical unionists. Although most work under an award developed by the resaerch industry with some input from NUW. Except for Morgan who makes his interviewers get ABN’s so he can employ them as contractors and really screw them.
LTEP, did those Newspoll primaries come from the “grapevine” (as Mumble would have it), or are they confirmed?
VoterBoy, when I saw that today, I wished it had come out a few days back – will get lost in the news now.
But it is just further proof that the economy is great and we’re all richer is just b*llsh*t
Paul K
Been there, done that, with the Brisbane Bears 3 cups in a row !!!!
Labour 56 TPP 95 seats !!!!!!
Wow the odds on Centrebet are rebounding bigtime
LTEP,
Sure fair enough. A secretary in Sydney can command their own wage in the marketplace but a secretary in Parkes cannot. In my view you can give that person a measure of fairness without relying on the current schlerotic system.
ESJ @ 991 – Please don’t do it! Not again. Not the treatment, anything but the treatment!
Without having to confront that tract again, it’s cruel enough for someone living in Robertson who is on the left, just to contemplate the nearly physical contortions that will be necessary with the ballot paper tomorrow, with her as the candidate. You clearly have some sadistic traits.