Sky News reports tomorrow’s Newspoll at 52-48. The Australian reports a sample size of 2614, but no primary votes. Normally you wouldn’t doubt the result with four polls telling you 52-48, 52-48, 54.5-45.5 and 57-43, but surely there’s some significance to the fact that the two closest polls of the year have come in the day before polling day.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Newspoll: 52-48
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1,500 Comments
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1st
You beauty.
Hopefully it gets closer and closer
How very Galaxy of them…
I’m still predicting 87 seats to Labor at the least. Bring on tomorrow night!
phew
it won’t be less than 52 then.
labor will win
Bahahaha. Cliffhanger pffft!!!
What an anticlimax.
Government still pooned.
whats happening on the betting markets?
Well, 52-48. I’ll take that with MOE, which I guess is about 2-3%? I can’t see the LNP being happy with that.
4 poll average 53.6?
yawn. i’ll take the less volatile and steady AC Neilsen thank you.
galaxy and newspoll. what a farce.
Well this is the last Newspoll, and considering that last time round, Newspoll favoured Labor by 2.7 points, it puts Howard in the lead on 2pp, and will romp home to victory.
Have the primaries been published ?
This will be as low as it goes – labor will win.
So 3 Pollsters show a 2% drop to ALP in one week
IF they are right , then 9 months polling was absolutely useless and MISLEADING
Absolutely disgusted and sad
@brad: looks like a lot of money is being dropped on the LNP this arvo.
80 seats I will be right. Was it Charles that had all the predictions a while ago?
Still sticking with 89 seat to Labor with a TPP of 54%.
Oh, Denis, never stop being Denis.
Newspoll uses the fixed 69/31 ratio for distributing preferences. Labor would probably pick up at least 75% or more of Green preferences plus some others. So it’s probably more like 54/46.
I see no reason to change my prediction of a minimum 80 seats to Labor.
Primaries?
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22808891-601,00.html
cliffhanger yawn – no news here people just moe
labor to win comfortably
The simple fact is, the Coalition is out of it.
The only two possible scenarios are:
1) Comfortable ALP win
2) Crushing ALP win.
Reminder to all: John Howard did NOT campaign today in Leichart, held on a 10% margin, because this one will be tight.
So, 4 poll average is the best predictor
ACN 57 = ALP win
Galaxy 52 = ALP win
Morgan 54.5 = ALP win
Newspoll 52 = ALP win
Average = 53.87 a swing of over 6% from 2004
Bring it on!
Oh smeg.
This is exactly what JWH needed – a poll which could be spun to give the electorate the feeling that by voting for him, they are backing a winner.
Smeg. I’m going to have a word with the “analyst” of Newspoll….
That’s it? Cliffhanger, days of counting, court of disputed returns? I guess they have to sell papers but after the build up this is a serious let down. Average of polls must be about 54 ALP – no change
What a shame they’ve sorted out their dodgy preference allocation from last time.
Bull Butter
Bahahaaa! I cant wait to see your faces tomorrow when Rudd romps it.
So cruel of Newspoll to do this to you. And actually, its 52-48. Nothing new, another poll showing ALP will win.
I personally think elements of the Oz public ARE dumb enough that Howard will get a 1% kick out of Lindsay gate. Usual grubby trick – but to no avail.
It wont save your hides Saturday!
Again, tell me, what national poll has the ALP losing this election?
The sample size was larger than average – 2614.
sweet!!!!!!!!!!!!
52-48
Howie by 3
ladies and gentleman we now have the narrowing.
GAME ON
it will be fun to watch some of the pollsters wipe away all that egg
http://www.iasbet.com has the Coalition blowing out ot $4.50.
Newspoll are just copying Galaxy so they don’t look stupid by themselves.
ALP will have 12 seats won by the times the polls close in QLD.
I think John, you are falling into the same trap we “lefties” are falling into. You’ve been so use to seeing mid to high 50’s for Labor’s TPP that you view 52 as being bad for Labor and 48 being good for the coalition this far out from the election. Hell, that is a loss for your side John.
Take some time to remember just why Howard will be voted out tomorrow:
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=MVzO017lcA4
An rant about what was wrong with the last 11 years set to a pretty catchy tune.
defence chief to make announcement at 4.30
Shanahan makes me want to puke
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22808891-601,00.html
“After being written off as a ‘has been’ John Howard’s last week of campaigning will give the Coalition hope of pulling off a miraculous victory tomorrow. “
They’ve used the 2004 preference flows. Can one of the wiser heads explain if that is or isn’t a problem?
what poll was best in 2004?
pamphletgate impact still to come…tomorrow
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22808949-12377,00.html
Rudd shakes hands ‘like a girl’
MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE
With ACN disappearing in one direction and Galaxy and Newspoll heading in the other, Morgan musn’t be able to believe his luck…
The media narrative tonight and tomorrow morning, unfortunately, will be:
Howard is making a potentially remarkable comeback in the very last moments of the campaign. Sad, but true, nothwithstanding the true import of the poll, which is not clear yet, given no primary etc.
Nostro: Nielsen has got it pretty much right for the last 3 elections.
David Briggs must be suddenly doing Newspoll as well.
Or, they’ve oversampled Western Australia for some strange reason.
Ron Brown (15) I told you earlier today that Morgan DOESN”T show a 2% drop in the ALP primary. Their phone poll at the beginning of the campaign was 45% ALP. Now it is 44.5% ALP. Also it’s much bigger face to face poll, which always has a higher ALP primary than its phone polls, is still to come tomorrow. Try to get a grip man.
Well at least now they can gets some bets on the LNP.
Nice to have two independent pollsters around.
This poll result is of course not credible except for being moe and, not consistent. You will see 54/46 tomorrow – and Rudd is out there still tring to pick up those 10% seats.
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