Sky News reports tomorrow’s Newspoll at 52-48. The Australian reports a sample size of 2614, but no primary votes. Normally you wouldn’t doubt the result with four polls telling you 52-48, 52-48, 54.5-45.5 and 57-43, but surely there’s some significance to the fact that the two closest polls of the year have come in the day before polling day.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Newspoll: 52-48
Copyright © 2008 Private Media Pty Ltd, Publishers of Crikey.com.au. All Rights Reserved.
Independent news, blogs and commentary on politics, media and business.
Editor: Jonathan Green.
Publishers: Eric Beecher, Diana Gribble.
Level 7, 22 William St, Melbourne, 3000. Ph: 1800 985 502 Fax: (03) 8623 9975
1,500 Comments
Pages: « 1 … 24 25 [26] 27 28 … 30 » Show All
Howard Hater,
Arbib has said exactly the same thing every week on Skynews, where every time the Lib opponent has eaten him for lunch. What a sorry advert for Labor instead of a Penny Wong with her steely glare and razor edged voice.
On November 21/22, with just one day until the Federal election, L-NP two-party preferred support is 45.5% (up 1% from the telephone Morgan Poll conducted November 15-17), ALP 54.5% (down 1%). This represents a swing of 7.2% to the ALP since the 2004 Federal election. However, in 22 key L-NP marginal seats, where Labor needs to win 16 seats to win Government, the swing is less (5.2% to ALP). Coalition primary support is 40.5% (up 0.5%), while ALP support is 44.5% (down 2%). Full article.
From Morgan site
Oh yeah I hope Labor promote Penny Wong – she could be shadow finance to Medicare Gold’s shadow treasurer. That would be the Liberal partys dream team.
Historic,
I reckon betting sites close when polls open in NSW.
Morgan will be the 2nd biggest winner from this election – after Kev & Co of course
Basil,
I think you are referring to the article that came out today
I’m waiting on their marginals analysis
Thanks, Basil
“slow eddie” Penny Wong would kick your teeth out and laugh at you.
Go try and pick on her – what a joke !
Go try
Gold, Basil, gold.
Been reading comments this evening and it appears that many worriers are now calming down a bit, having many good folk here remind them about MoE and trend (it’s the trend, stupid!).
Labor are the closest you’ll ever see to a sure thing tomorrow, and it won’t be close. I expect at least 90 seats, and am hoping that they’ll meet my prediction of 106.
Those still worrying should think about it more closely and remember:
103 polls in a row predicting a Labor victory (not just a lead)
average TPP of around 54 in those polls, and also in the most recent polls today
Galaxy and Newspoll always considered somewhat suspect by most
Rudd campaigning in Liberal ’safe’ seats
Rodent campaigning in Liberal ’safe’ seats
QLD swing of about 8-12%
SA swing about 7.5-10%
Vic swing 5% and moving up
NSW swing about 7.5%, and still going
WA moving back to Labor over last few weeks
Workchoices
Bookies are irrelevant – poll trends are not.
9:00pm tomorrow night we’ll all be safe from another term of therodent and Smirk. Then the fun begins!
Good luck to all those working for the betterment of the country tomorrow at Labor polling booths – i know you, and the country, will be well rewarded.
And thanks to all for the interesting and illuminating commentary over the past few months.
Thanks also to william for making this possible. I look forward to reviewing, and possibly participating in, tomorrow night’s and Sunday’s celebrations.
Hey, no worries LTEP I rang Lib HQ and on Thursday and told them i wasn’t going to be renewing my Liberal party membership. I told them I had heard Jackie Kelly on the radio and was outraged. A couple of friends did this too.
Only thing is none of us are members of any party.
Yeah, got a bit carried away and realised after posting, getting trigger happy
Hemingway-Thanks for the compliment. It’s nice to be appreciated! Actually, the point I was making is that everyone seems to be acting as if tomorrow will be the end of the world if the Rodent gets back in, or that we will be living in an Elysian paradise if Rudd wins. Neither is the case.
WTF? Kroger laments that the Liberals can’t get donations from business.
Maybe if the Liberals had better policies more businesses would donate to them?
I just like to DECLARE that to all pollbludgers that now that election day is upon us that I just want to say to all left and right that I have enjoyed this adventure with you all.
If you appreciate this service that William Bowe provides for us nerds then get a tener or what you can afford & donate to this great web site to keep it going.
There is a paypal box on the left column on the opening page if you are inclined to be generous and it will sustain our secret corner of the web.
Diogenes the voice of reason. So Cornes to win?
Dearest Basil
it only happens once a decade
BANG bang!!
Ha!
Happy Democracy Day!
Predictions at Crikey for those that haven’t had a look yet.
http://www.crikey.com.au/Election-2007/20071123-Crikey-predictions.html
VoterBoy @ 1159. You de man. I love the optimism. I’m sticking with 89, but after reflecting on Newspoll I would like to go a bit higher.
Edward StJohn Says:
November 23rd, 2007 at 11:30 pm
Oh yeah I hope Labor promote Penny Wong – she could be shadow finance to Medicare Gold’s shadow treasurer. That would be the Liberal partys dream team.
It is a credit to labour that Penny Wong is the opposite to Andrew Robb. Most Australians are very racist. If Rudd was so risk adverse he would not have Wong in this position. So media important. 2 weeks ago 2GB tried to have her arrested when she turned up for a interview with Ray Hadlee.
BTW – The LNP desperately needs to get beaten so it can actually be rebuilt as the Liberal party and, not some personal Howard fiefdom of hard right-wing hacks and weirdos.
Labor 81 seats.
Still.
In SA, Centrebet for Sturt has seen Mia Handshin’s odds close in dramatically to 2.05 (as opposed to Christopher Pyne’s odds of 1.68). This will be a seat to watch!
I would like to say that win, lose or draw, I have appreciated the contributions of several coalition supporters, especially those that had the good grace to present opposing points of view politely to a largely hostile audience. To those few, you have made this site more enjoyable than had it merely been a partisan self congratulatory back patting festival.
Kudos
Kroger is Costello’s gimp. And thick as a brick. And implicated at every point in the internecine warfare of the Victorian Liberal Party. Vic Labor owes him.
ESJ I suspect Penny W in a one-on-one may soon have you crying “Hold!”
Penny Wong will have a major role in the incoming rudd administration.
She is devastating as a debater. An idea replacement for faulkner in senate estimates committees
Nothing personal against Penny Wong or any of the candidates on either side but there aint a lot of naturally gregarious ones?
Penny Wong may be bright but that demeanour will kill off any serious hopes of advancement
re: mad cow @ # 1087
I suggest that “Like to Kill Things” would be a more appropriate label for the Liberty and Democracy Party. Their firearms policy is here http://www.ldp.org.au/federal/policies/firearms.html
1252 ESJ- I think not. Too much damage early to her rep although she has tried hard to overcome it. I am tipping Mia to beat Pyne, as well as the obvious three marginals (although not by as much as most say, they’re pretty pissed off that Labor has assumed they’re in the bag). And my roughie is that Labor has a good chance of getting Grey. It seems to have gone under the radar and losing the sitting member, who was hugely popular, might make the difference.
Sorry if others have alrady gone over this but there is more than just trend to calm the nervous. Newspoll changed the way they allocated preferences in their last reported poll! With the Green vote up and most preferencing Labor, this makes a big difference. If I understand Poss correctly, and Newspoll had allocated preferences consistently, it would be 54/46
There is no narrowing in a week where the government got caught on two separate smear scams, one involving racism. Labor will win. Sleep well.
Kevin Rudd’s thank you to many of us – his supporters. I guess there would be many of us have today received this one:
“1256
CL de Footscray Says:
November 23rd, 2007 at 11:35 pm
VoterBoy @ 1159. You de man. I love the optimism. I’m sticking with 89, but after reflecting on Newspoll I would like to go a bit higher.”
Hey, someone’s got to stick their neck out.
And a helpful story to all you nervous nellies out there. I wasn’t here when Blair got in (funnily enough I was walking through the streets of Richmond with a radio glued to my ear), but every single Labor voter I’ve ever spoken to said that they really didn’t believe Blair could pull it off. Despite all the polls, all the evidence from the tenor of the campaign, all the news stories of Tory hopelessness, they still thought that Major will pull a rabbit out of his hat, as he had in the previous election.
So it’s completely normal to be as nervous as hell. I am too, believe me. But I still think Rudd’s going to cream the little sh!t. And I think we’ll see some remarkable surprises on the night.
It might be earlier up in QLD but I have got to skip
Thanks for the line Kev07
I say Labor with a minimum of 80 seats tomorrow night. But no matter who wins can I just say it’s great to live in a democracy. I’ve been to plenty of countries where the people can only dream of the freedoms we have. Win or lose tomorrow I am happy and proud to be an Australian. For any I may have offended with my comments I apologise but you know I’ll probably just do it all over again next time there’s an election on. William you’ve done an awesome job. Good luck everyone, but more good luck to the Labor voters.
ESJ but there not many as gregarious (or indeed egregious) as you …
I was hoping for a liberal party, the it’s name ( Liberal) has some meaning.
God I thought I was the only one who loathed Kroger at first sight watching him closely on LL. That cosmopolitan laugh, those unseeing, supercilious, fluttering eyes with an expression of the most curious emptiness, that patronising patter, the airy joke every time Bob made a point he’d rather avoid (like how WorkChoices affects ordinary people). You know he knows he maddens people with that born-to-rule act, so the best thing to do is not to get angry but to treat it with the contempt that this kind of rudeness and silliness dressed up as worldly sophistication deserves. It wouldn’t surprise me though that this will be the next Hydra head of the Liberal Party coming up.
ESJ
Penny Wong’s demeanour? From a party that has put Phillip “Palpatine” Ruddock, Tony “Mad Monk” Abbott and Kevin Andrews in Cabinet, that is laughable.
re: Liberty and Democracy Party
An interesting article on LDP and their ACT lead Senate candidate, Lisa Milat. http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=308074
Eritnycam 1261, I endorse those comments, to those Tories who were genuinely putting forward their views in a sometimes exuberant environment, well done. Get a decent leader next time though, preferably small l liberal. Send the neo-anderthals to the gulag where they belong.
I like Penny Wong but she has some very unusual vowel sounds tucked into her otherwise fairly broad Australian accent
Again apologies if others have posted it, but Morgan has gone up, ALP 54.5/45.5.
Serenity now Glen.
Kroger has every reason to be gumpy and pissed off. Back in the day when he and Cossie were masters of all they surveyed in the heady world of student politics they got their jollies dreaming of the day that Pete would be the PM and Kroges would be there as the ‘man behind the man’. Alas Pete lacked the courage of his convictions and will go down as a latter day Richard Casey, the man who would be king but was too much of a wimp and who was continually outfoxed by an older, hungrier man. So long suckers.
Understand the financial mood of the country and you will understand its politics. People generally feel the economy is sound; in fact they have so much faith in it that millions have overextended themselves in debt.
I don’t want to argue economics here, frankly don’t know enough about it, but I do know many are doing it tough. People are nervous, and more than a little insecure. These are not sentiments conducive towards change.
Earlier favourable polls were likely the result of people expressing their difficulties. On Election Day, because of these difficulties, the same people could retreat back to Howard.
Unfortunately the fear campaign is working and the mob in power always knew it was their best bet. Once again fear may be paying off big time for the conservatives.
I hope I’m wrong
# 1265
Edward StJohn Said:
“Nothing personal against Penny Wong or any of the candidates on either side but there aint a lot of naturally gregarious ones?
Penny Wong may be bright but that demeanour will kill off any serious hopes of advancement”
“Nothing personal against Penny Wong” Crap – we all know what you imply. Dog whistle !
You show a serious lack of understanding of the scope of prospective roles for a senator with serious talent in a party in government, “slow eddie’ but I expect this has been a feature of your unfortunate life.
Tell us the truth – really little eddie smith – always slow and dumb until he joined the libs – then he became smart
ESJ Penny’s actually a pretty nice person if you meet her in real life. One of the truly pleasant politicians.
Tory Crimes you can’t reasonably blame Tip for being pissed off. Just imagine being personally screwed by the rodent for over a decade.
Pages: « 1 … 24 25 [26] 27 28 … 30 » Show All