Sky News reports tomorrow’s Newspoll at 52-48. The Australian reports a sample size of 2614, but no primary votes. Normally you wouldn’t doubt the result with four polls telling you 52-48, 52-48, 54.5-45.5 and 57-43, but surely there’s some significance to the fact that the two closest polls of the year have come in the day before polling day.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Newspoll: 52-48
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1,500 Comments
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for those interested here is the state breakdown of swing to alp based on ACN: nsw-8.1 / vic-8.4 / qld 9.9 / sa.nt-10.4 / wa-3.1
Whoa Dave, what’s up no ganga tonight at the share house?
Lionel, Many thanks back at you!
A new poll out of WA – about 6000 respondents – has the Government ahead 53-47 2PP.
Also, both leaders delivered a final pitch to voters on ACA tonight and afterwards the viewing audience SMSed their verdict: the PM winning 76%-24%.
#1279- It might just because its getting late, and I’m getting tired, but that letter makes me feel very sad that we might miss out on this man when I believe he is what we need now. God I want to have faith in Australia. I understood why they didn’t vote Latham. I understood the fear of 2001, the desire to give Howard one more chance in ‘98, but tomorrow Australia, you have no excuses left.
Ah Mr Squiggle, I’m on the Illawarra line, and it’s true two years. I’ve always wanted to ask you how is Miss Jane these days?
ittle eddie smith – always slow and dumb until he joined the libs – then he became smart
John Howard is a silly bunt
where did you find those numbers?
Soc, where are you finding the final morgan?
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2007/4250/
Mark,
Ms jane is deply satisfied,
I upgraded to 2B thinkness recently and haven’t had any complaints since
1304 Yeah SK you’re right. The SMS figures were ridiculous, even the Ch 9 presenters were laughing at them.
1304
6000 “respondents”
does that mean it was an online poll?
Barry @1280, all part of the fun of the wild west
1310, are we sure this isnt the last morgan result yesterday?
just got home and found all the gear for being “BOOTH CAPTAIN”……JHO YOU ARE GOIIIIINNNNGGG DOOOOWWWWNNN
SMS poll
Edward SJ 1265
Nothing personal against Penny Wong or any of the candidates on either side but there aint a lot of naturally gregarious ones? Penny Wong may be bright but that demeanour will kill off any serious hopes of advancement
News for you, ESJ, bright is good. That’s why Labor has always placed a lot of emphasis on education. Penny Wong could eat you for breakfast.
Steven Kaye you are a busy little voter! Fortunately you only get one (1) tomorrow.
Poor rodent on the ACA special tonight was just awful.
He was cut off mid sentence by Grimshaw and just looked totally bewildered.
It has been a long time for the old guy – plenty of time for rest from sunday on him.
Studio audience went big time for ALP.
Anyone wanna comment on my senate ticket post at 1097 ?
1311
The B in 2B refers to “b”lackness in pencils Mr. Squiggle.
Mr Squiggle just read tomorrow’s AGE…
1320 – it was hilarious.
JH is a C – plug that ACN state breakdown into the ABC calculator (with the assumption that both Tassie Coalition seats fall) and you get 97-51-2.
ACA -Very reliable indicator that one- the studio audience had the same figures reversed.
WISYWYG-Thats what Im saying, Cos was too spineless to, as Joe Mantegna said in Godfather 3, ‘take what will not be given’. In the end his turned out to be all piss and wind. And some people want this man to be the countrys next leader, God help us.
Rusted on,
I am not interested in having an argument and I seem to always attract the crustaceans on this site when I do (and LTEP is now the resident Limpet mine) but to surmise I would say voters would pick a Cornes over a Penny Wong.
That would still be around a 2% swing to the alp steven kaye. That would mean stirling and hasluck would both swing to the alp
“Who will revenge me of the injuries I have sustained from one turbulent priest?”. Now is the hour. Today is the day.
“1315
Erytnicam Says:
November 23rd, 2007 at 11:56 pm
1310, are we sure this isnt the last morgan result yesterday?”
Can’t be sure, to be honest. I’m becoming dizzy with all this polling. But it’s the latest one on the site and is dated today.
No I think it’s new, cos it doesn’t seem to be in Antony Green’s calculator
little eddie smith is a coward !!
steven kaye is a bit slow with figures and swing
“long election for the old guy – plenty of time for rest from sunday on for him”
oops – need an edit/preview facility.
Penny Wong is one of those totally trust worthy pollys you can send out by themselves and not worry what they might say – not like Abbott and co. Some of those Labor women are serious talent.
WELCOME TO MY NIGHTEMARE HOWARD – BBRRRRAAAAAUUUUGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHAAAAAAA!
You can’t trust those socialists they hire for Channel 9 audiences LOL
I think I’ll watch a lot of Nine tomorrow night: Swan vs Kroger could be amusing
Wow
The labor team has really got their game on
They are even advertising those “I will, I wont” ads on gaydar.com.au, which is major social networking site for those of that particular persuasion
I dont think ill be seeing a Liberal on there lol
Speak for yourself ESJ – I prefer voting for intelligent women wearing suits, very fetching indeed! BTW as a mostly silent trawler, I must say I have enjoyed your contributions. You’re also quite fetching in your own way.
It looks to be the 21/22 November Morgan phone poll, i.e. the one that was reported this morning:
“1331
dave Says:
November 24th, 2007 at 12:00 am
little eddie smith is a coward !!”
Why do you call him Eddie Smith?
I thought his real name was Norman StJohn Pole Vaulter, “who for the past three years has been contradicting people”.
(How’s that for remembering Python sketches from three decades ago!)
(and of course, he might spell it Poll, rather than Pole)
# 1327
Edward StJohn Says:
“I am not interested in having an argument and I seem to always attract the crustaceans on this site when I do (and LTEP is now the resident Limpet mine) but to surmise I would say voters would pick a Cornes over a Penny Wong.”
using the dog whistle again ! You really are scum !
Edward StJohn Says: “I am not interested in having an argument and I seem to always attract the crustaceans on this site when I do (and LTEP is now the resident Limpet mine) but to surmise I would say voters would pick a Cornes over a Penny Wong.”
You must have one giant carrot up your arse mate. Your posts are usually of the simplest and most stupid nature, what do you expect. Get a thicker skinner, loser.
The plunge on the Greens candidate in Mayo continues, backed in from $501 to $201 in the past 24 hours. Amazing what a stupid $5 bet on my behalf can do – an interesting waste of $5 on my behalf.
Dave – I dont mind you having a go at me but at least try and be witty in the way you go about it here at our on line community.
Thank you wysiwyg.
AG01 – Do you think you will wear a blindfold if it does come to that?
1327 EST
And what do you know about voters? Fail sociology 101 for gross oversimplification. Then again, that’s what you’re good at.
VoterBoy @ 1271 – the thing is, it’s just not credible that we get 103 polls that say ALP easy, then we get two in one day from the same large and essentially corrupt organisation that just somehow manage to be identical and to put the libs on the same lap (where they haven’t been since the starter’s gun). And it just happens that they become the new story of the day on election eve, and they all mention the name of the organisation. It just seems like they sandbagged the sampling to make sure they were on the low side, since their main competition is way out the other side.
It goes against my neo-keynsian heart to say so, but the betting markets make a lot more sense at the minute. I think somewhere around 89 is quite reasonable, and I also think a 2pp in the range of 54 is very likely. Certainly 53.6% (in the right places) would deliver 89.
You probably don’t have to live through the quotidian shite of the Aus media (and the ABC have been pretty damn bad this time around) so you don’t see the nonsense they spout as though it were the word of God. That may give you better perspective! Anyway, despite being slightly sick in the stomach (just as i was on Grand Final eve) I feel that victory is within our grasp! We just have to live through the next 24 hours …
VoterBoy of Over the Water
Thank you kind sir
Always happy to meet a gentleman
Settle petals, George, Rusted on etc etc
Regarding the WA poll and SMS and website polls in general, I’m not a pseph but IMO they are rubbish, because there is no atempt to ensure that they are have random and representative sample. The worst of them don’t even exclude people multiple voting. You see a lot of the internet polls on the SMH website running 70/30 in favour of a Labor position, but they means nothing either.
I don’t Know ESJ……do they work?
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