Sky News reports tomorrow’s Newspoll at 52-48. The Australian reports a sample size of 2614, but no primary votes. Normally you wouldn’t doubt the result with four polls telling you 52-48, 52-48, 54.5-45.5 and 57-43, but surely there’s some significance to the fact that the two closest polls of the year have come in the day before polling day.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Newspoll: 52-48
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Anyone know when the poll was actually taken and whether it was based on a broad national sample or something more specifically focused?
I get suspicious when only 2PP results are presented, especially given “issues” with preference treatment by some pollers.
The absence of any breakdown of the “Coalition” vote into Lib and Nat leaves some big questions too. When Newspoll has “peaked” for the coalition in recent times we’ve often seen it associated with a higher than usual Nat primary vote, sometimes even counteracting a decline amongst the Libs. This suggests that sometimes a higher proportion of country voters get polled. Given that almost all of the vulnerable coalition seats are actually held by the Libs this can make a big difference to the meaning of the poll.
Cheers
Rod
This is a mid-week poll. Haven’t we seen previous mid-week polls are less favourable for ALP ? If so, don’t know why ? Working people harder to track down on a weeknight ? Anyone found any underlying data for the Newspoll ?
If neophyte’s 44-43 primaries are the case, the Greens must be doing well, and their prefs will go to Labor. Probably more like 53-47 in that case.
52% TPP in Qld is 10 seats. Ha Ha
Its not close at all.
LOL redwombat – I agree. The REAL thing is on tomorrow & I KNOW Labor will win!
This is such transparently biased polling I cannot believe we are giving it credence by posting.
83:65:2.
Rob at #149:
To be fair, Jim did choose the two latest as well as the two lowest.
151 Jim
we do know the Galaxy was taken BEFORE race-hate gate
This will be my last post on this blog before the big night. I am predicting 87 seats to Labor and feeling pretty good. I will sleep well tonight and enjoy the fireworks tomorrow.
Thanks to william and the other contributers for making this a great site.
See you all tomorrow
there is normally a 2% error in the sample anyway most people who are at work are not been sampled or has no time to be sampled
ruawake where do you get the idea it’s 52 in Queensland?
At Newspolls usual 69:31 pref split, this’d give 53/47. Something isn’t quite right.
So LTEP, you didn’t have the guts to take me on, you phony gutless fake.
this poll certainly make the Libs happy, but I’m sure they would be in heaven if the results was reversed: Labor 48 / Coalition 52. hahahahhhh
Sure, Labor are not so happy with this result, but get real gentlemen, who are happier?
CALM DOWN YOU LOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
There, that should work!
First thing, it’s Newspoll, ’nuff said.
Second thing: Rudd will win this
Third thing: See second thing
Oh yeah, and it’s much better that we get a couple of dodgey and anomalous polls the day before voting because it really focuses the mind of the electorate. Punters will have to think about it more, and not just go ‘oh well, Rudd’s in anyway so my vote won’t count’.
So, calm down, the Rodent is packing now.(In both senses)
I can’t for the life of me understand why on the eve of an election they can’t ask voters who specify a minor party with their first preference “who will receive your higher preference between Liberal and Labor?”
The fact that the Oz still thinks it is 2004 makes me think they want to get a bad result.
Why would Newspoll trash their own reputation at this stage of the election? It’s not biased. It may be right. It may be wrong. But it’s not biased.
I’d not heard that one about mid-week polls before. Interesting theory.
centre I’m here to discuss polls and politics, not to get into petty and childish fights with anyone. Who cares if I’m fake? Get over it. If William had a problem with me posting here he’d let me know and I’d go. Let’s not waste his time with petty squabbling.
Wake up to yourself, Centre.
William, yes… I’ve noticed mid-week polls tend to produce lower numbers for the ALP. That’s not scientific, it’s just what I’ve noticed. Remember that (at that time) low 55/45 for the ALP a few months ago that was taken mid-week to judge Budget reactions?
Rob, I would rather take the last 23 of your 100 polls than the first 2, that were when, in April?
You have to have punt and I think ACN will be proven closet of the polls done today. But I will take the Hubris off my toast and say Labour will have to settle for 56 TPP. = 95 seats.
Needed that 52-48 Newspoll like a hole in the head. I was hoping to be able to enjoy the day tomorrow – now I will be worrying about Collywobbles all day.
10 pse, assuming 44/43 is correct for primaries:
If it was TPP 51.7 then that would imply that Labor’s primary of 43.5 (worst case) and Coalition’s primary (best case) of 43.5 that the preference allocation was 63% to Labor!!!
Nice try – but BUZZZZ – you lose
If the preference allocation is more like 69% where it should be you get 52.47 worst case for Labor
LTEP
If Qld is not 52% then other states are even higher. 52-48 is a Labor win no matter how anyone would like to spin it.
The polls which came out at the start of the campaign (after the Libs tax cuts) were mid-week polls weren’t they?
So what is Johnnie going to say when he calls George W to apologise for losing the election?
” That bloody Muslim pamphlet thing you told us to try didn’t work ”
” It’s Costello’s fault. I could have won but the people didn’t want me to hand over to the Smirk ”
” I still love you George “
Calm down people. There will be no landslide. 82-84 seats is still 22-24 won by the ALP…that’s around 16% of the House changing hands. if you want more, you;re greedy – if you expect more you’ll be disappointed.
Newspoll actually does us all a favour. Waters down the anticipation of 90+ seats. Would hate to see mass depression on this site if the ALP ‘only’ win 80-85 seats, which has been the likely result all along. Maybe now, given the increased nervousness, people will take the 10-15 majority and be mighty pleased indeed – its a great result.
Agree its hard to reconcile narrowing with this week of Lib campaigning. Had bullishly gone out to 84:64:2, but anything >80 meets expectations.
Here’s the predictable Shanahack piece: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22808891-601,00.html
Zochling, I did mention the Colliwobbles here a month ago.
True ruawake, the national figures will mostly be comprised of the most populous states. Unless there’s a huge wild result in one of the less populous states it wouldn’t have a huge impact on the national figure.
Samuel K, unlike you, i don’t apply my own preference flows… i am simply reporting what the Newspoll showed… i don’t vouch for their methodology one way or the other… i am just reporting that that is what i have been told. make of it what you will. unlike many on hear i just like to analyse the info, i don’t barrack
The GG is already linking to it, don’t miss the Star Wars Election – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H1lYCbjzQ4I
Brilliantly done
Why don’t the editors correct Shanhan’s stupid mistakes? He used the word “average” when he actually meant “normal” or “usual”.
If they’ve narrowed this much hopefullly they narrow further tomorrow.
180
I will take any majority, even with indies as per Bracks in 99.
Anything to be rid of the rodent.
Anything. Even the rodent losing his seat and the smirk would be better.
Well I’m actually quite relieved. I was expecting 50/50 at the very least!
All I can say now is that I hope it’s ACN that comes up trumps and that Newspoll and Galaxy end up, in the immortal words of Senator Ron Boswell: with “egg all over their faces from head to toe”!
and yes i know i misspelt here as hear
If it is a hung parliment and the independants have to choose I hope they choose JWH
Joffaboy,
You would rather Peter “HR-Nicholls-Dollar-Sweets-Lets-Have-no-more-awards-or-youth-wages” Costello?
Jeez, give me Abbott anyday, if I had to pick one of that lot.
Well, if it is close in the end then we’ll probably learn something about how quickly a population can change it’s mind – I certainly wouldn’t have credited it after the trend we’ve watched.
I’ll be a disappointed amateur pseph if the trending can change so rapidly, because it’ll mean the trends are worthless. Personally I don’t believe it can – it means nearly a million people will change their minds in a fortnight, against the campaign logic; though that same campaign logic could go out the door too…
It’ sounds like sour grapes at this stage, but a change of the magnitude suggested is a real smack in the face for the pollsters – it means they’ve been failing to get below the surface of the voters to discover anything meaningful.
The ALP problem with this presumed momentum is that it might bring even more focus to voters in tight electorates, and then there’s definitely momentum…
This is going to be a tense 30 hours or so.
Portlandbet.
UPDATE – 100+ seats in total Labor seat market backed into $8.50!!
What a surprise.
The conservatives have firmed slightly in the betting so far. They are still 4.50 with IAS but that should be snapped up soon.
William, LTEP has gone from being pessimistic to being ecstatic. He never fooled me as to his true colours. You can support anyone you like, but he has been taking the other commenters for a ride.
They will narrow further tomorrow. Nothing like a real election will test the electorate’s mettle when considering change; most are likely to stick with the safe option.
ALP – 74
LNP – 74
IND – 2
ALP gains (14) – Kingston (SA), Bonner (QLD), Wakefield (SA), Makin (SA), Braddon (TAS), Parramatta (NSW), Hasluck (WA), Bass (TAS), Solomon (NT), Moreton (QLD), Lindsay (NSW), Eden-Monaro (NSW), Blair (QLD), Herbert (QLD)
LNP gains (0) – Nil
If it is 52-48 that means the Tory vote in WA must be big enough to give us a shot at Cowan and Swan
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