Sky News reports tomorrow’s Newspoll at 52-48. The Australian reports a sample size of 2614, but no primary votes. Normally you wouldn’t doubt the result with four polls telling you 52-48, 52-48, 54.5-45.5 and 57-43, but surely there’s some significance to the fact that the two closest polls of the year have come in the day before polling day.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Newspoll: 52-48
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1,500 Comments
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L – yup.
Anything would be better than this small, insular, petty, banal little, little man.
Anything that is on the front bench on the Coalition would be preferable.
I would actually prefer Turnbull or Brough as I think they are both good HR’s but if I had to settle for the smirk I would.
The Shambollocks writes:
“After he was written off as a ‘has-been’, John Howard’s last week of campaigning will give the Coalition hope of pulling off a miraculous victory tomorrow. ”
All hail the Great Leader’s campaign against the Barbarians!
What the f#ck won’t he do to lick Howard’s nether regions?
Howard’s last week of campaigning was as flat as last last night’s beer and had a racist act in the middle of it, courtesy his one time pall Ms Kelly.
Oh yeah, Shambollocks, it was truly brilliant stuff!
GALAXY FEEDBACK
no good news today
rang Galaxy re where was labor’s 52% (between 51.51% up to 52.44%)
would NOT give the figure
BUT UNFORTUNATELY said it was UNDER 52%
Nostradamus,
Enjoy it while you can. In about 30 hours from now you’ll be a snivelling emotional wreck.
Nostradamus and Glen I hope so.
Shanahack was insufferable on the Sky news piece you can get at the GG web site.
10pse – it’s not barracking – it’s arithmetic
A win is a win. In 2002, Mike Rann had to rely on a disaffected Liberal to govern. Look how he turned that around to a landslide in the next election.
At least my tip of 79 seats to the ALP on Ozpolitics from the first half of the year is looking good. After all, the polls are only about what I’d like to see right?
Ha 52-48 could mean if we hold the swings to safe Lib and safe Lab seats and hold our marginals we could still cling to power, also this result means WA should be status quo or Cowan and maybe Swan thus the Tories will have 2 + Calare.
Glen @ 198
Cowan – yes, the Tories will win Cowan, but not Swan. If the ALP held Swan against Cyclone Latham last time, they won’t lose it this time, especially not against a Lib candidate who refuses to campaign in person.
Cowan, however, will be the only seat in the country to be taken off the ALP by the Coalition.
Watch Forrest, Canning, and O’Connor though. Forrest has the independent in with a real chance, Canning will swing back to the ALP by about 6-7%, and Tuckey better hope he gets at least 48% of first preferences or he is GORN in O’Connor – every candidate on the ballot is directing prefs to the Nats.
Listen guys, according to Antony:
52% – Lab: 76 Coal: 72 Ind: 2
57% – Lab: 106 Coal: 42 Ind: 2
Like everything else life, the truth or reality will lie somewhere in between. That is the law of nature, somewhere in between. But please dont me tell, but… but… it depends on where the swing is. If so, WTF we are doing here.
This looks like the Vic 99 election in reverse. At that election, Morgan was always much closer over the trend than the other polls, and was close to the actual result. Newspoll said Kennett would win easily for a long time, but got its final results right. ACN, however, had Kennett easily on its final poll 54-46.
In this election, Galaxy may have replaced Morgan as the closest one, and similar pattern to Vic 99 for Newspoll and ACN.
Just to play the devil’s advocate for a moment, I have been concerned ever since Howard promised a truck load of middle/upper class welfare in his campaign launch and Rudd decided to take the high moral ground and offer a lot less. He got the plaudits of the newspaper editors and the journos, but government subsidised private school fees and expenses must have looked mighty attractive to a lot of voters out there. The Liberals have been letter boxing that message furiously since then and I have been waiting to see if there was going to be any spike in the polls for them
Don’t get me wrong. I’m glad Rudd didn’t go down that path. No Labor government, indeed no decent government of ANY persuasion, could go down the path of taking taxes from the less well off to give to the already very comfortable. But I think he could easily have promised a few other goodies with some of the massive amount of money that Howard promised.
Anyway, hopefully in the end it won’t make any difference. This is one time I will be very happy to be proved totally wrong.
202 – but the TPP is a calculation based on presumed preference flows. That breakdown is still an open question.
Comparing the posts here in the last day or so to last week, you have to say there is a massive change in setiement/confidence.
Some like Gary Bruce have (admirably) held the line. He may be stoic, but in defeat.
If LNP win, and its obviously a big ‘if,’ PollBludger will be a sociology student’s wet dream. So much hubris, so many bold predictions, so much anger. And yet the possibility of being so wrong….
If LNP win (bif ‘if and all that), I wont be here tomorrow night. To come back from so far behind. It would equate to the 1979 Carlton GF win over Collingwodd as one of life’s greatest moments. If Labor win, as expected for so long, well, we’ll all survive, hopefully… If LNP win, well, fathers lock up your daughters.
Higgins will be painted blue.
Is it possible for that many people to change their minds just days before the election. Polls experts????
ABC radio are reporting another Digger has been killed in Afghanistan. Hope neither side tries to use this.
Try and plug that figure in here:
http://www.newspoll.com.au/image_uploads/1105%20Fed%2020-11-07.pdf
Ron Brown @ 203:
So Galaxy told you they rounded *UP* to 52% ?
Well well.. this electon is starting to get interesting..
They are playing with our minds.
Centre, maybe you’re right about LTEP, maybe not. But really who cares? If you don’t like another poster’s comments then apply what I call a Glen filter – ignore them.
I love how the nervous nellies are wringing their hands and saying “thats not right, it cant be right, can it?”
Let me tell you, they would not publish these figures if they did not believe it. They have thousands of dollars of revenue relying on the accuracy, and reputation, of their figures.
You cannot just choose the one poll that gives you favourable results and rubbish the others.
Surely the latest Newspoll can only mean greater devastation for the government. It must be remembered that his popularity is still quite solid, many voters aren’t convinced he’s evil, just that they feel it’s time for a change.
Looking at the Neilson poll they would have been thinking “oh, the poor fella, he’s done a reasonable job and we don’t want to see him humiliated. Now with the apparent narrowing they, to use one of the PM’s favourite lines, “won’t risk it”…voting for JWH again that is!
I haven’t been on since this morning. At that time we were all exuberant. I think ESJ described it as workers and peasants singing in flowering fields, bringing in a bountiful harvest. What has changed? Almost all the papers have endorsed Rudd, even the terror and the GG. Momentum is clearly on the ALP side. Regardless of Newspoll, which overestimated the 2PP of the loser in 2004 by 3 percent, and after the disasterous campaign by the Libs, especially this week courtesy of the Kelly gang, can we really see the weasel snatch this?
I Doubt it! Enjoy it!
Dovif youve come home. Welcome back!
Jim, I just knew you were a Carlton supporter too; I bet your heart pumps pure evil:)
Sumpin wrong here fellas. Good dose of Poss or Oz will help. Ain’t no problem these are bashing at the limit of MOE. Some weighting problems somewhere. Trend line, trend line, trend line. Goes against all media negativity to coalition. Does not make sense. She is still steady as she goes. Anxiety ain’t good for your digestion.
Rocket @ 85
I reckon you’re dead right.
A close Labor win will leave most of the ugliest Libs in place without Unca John to (god only knows how or why) give them a human and respectable face. Rudd will run a tight ship anyhow but a close result will ensure discipline.
When the economy doesn’t tank and the unions don’t take over the nation and terrorists don’t blow us all up the lies, smear and fear of the Coalition will be clear to even the stupid that hang on to Unca John this time.
A decimation for this pack of crooks is coming. I still think it’s tomorrow, but if it’s only a close Labor win then 2010 will do fine.
For the sake of democracy I’d love to see Windsor in the big chair. The disgraceful performance of the incumbent demands reform of the Speaker.
The Speaker, rumour has it that both the Newspoll and Galaxy were rounded up to 52/48.
“52-48 is a Labor win no matter how anyone would like to spin it.”
Exactly. People need to take a chill pill. Of course, we all want the polls to point towards a CERTAIN Labor win, but the fact is that all polls have Labor ahead. The chances of the Coalition getting across the line on 48% are VERY LOW. Sure, it can happen, and a Labor win is not certain, but a Labor win is HIGHLY probable.
Better to be 52 than 48. I wouldn’t want to be a Lib supporter right now, desperately hanging onto one tiny shred of hope.
I’m so excited by this election I can’t concentrate.
Sometimes I mean to go to another site but I start typing in http://www.pollb.. automatically oops.
Watcher,
I must be evil. To the posters on this blog, for voting Liberal I am the devil incarnate. Its just that almost half the population side agree.
John of Melbourne, Bob Katter has already said he will support Kevin Rudd.
44-43 primaries sounds normal to me at this stage, but it depends what they are in the different states. WA may well be 46 Lib 44 Lab and that would distort the other states. Libs need to be 3% ahead of Labor on primaries to win. 44-43 would be a comfortable win for Labor. Still go for 85 62 3 or 85 63 2. Final %? 53-47 down to 52.5- 47.5. It was never going to be 56-44. Queensland and western Sydney are the key.
Thanks Richard.
Wow, big gain for Coalition. Must be due to the great last 5 days they’ve had. lol
Richard Jones WA will have minimal impact on the overall figure unless it’s a huge difference to the national figure. All the states should be weighted according to population.
230, LTEP – Galaxy was reported as primaries 42.5 to 42.5, you can do your own calculations and rounding.
Samuel K and others… let’s settle the 52-48 thing once and for all…
52% is 4.7% national swing to Labor…..
…you all respect Antony Green… so let’s do the following:
1. open his HoR calculator.
2. plug in the following:
- NSW 4.7% swing to Labor
- Vic 4.1% swing to Labor
- QLD 6.8% swing to Labor
- WA 0.3% swing to Coalition
- SA 7.1% swing to Labor
- Tas 6.0% swing to Labor
- ACT 5.8% swing to Labor
- NT 0% swing
This produces a national result of 4.7% and it produces 76 seats for Labor… meaning Labor by a nose.
However….. it also is just applying the swings uniformly across all seats which is crazy. For instance, on this scenario it assumes 1 seat gain for Libs in WA… but it could be 2 without affecting the national figure.
Similarly…. it assumes Wentworth would fall under this scenario which is not likely if the statewide NSW swing is only 4.7%… adjust for that and government holds on
…and because i know someone will say but the swing has to come from somewhere… the point is that getting 8% in Joe Hockey’s seat is not enough.
there endeth the lesson.
that said – Labor will win by a nose
Well Galaxy had FF going from 1% to 2.5%, so I think we can get out the salt for that.
2moro will either be one of the best days of my life
or one of the worst days of my life
there will be no in between!!!
For what it’s worth I think this is an excellent poll for the ALP.
For a long time now, a highish Newspoll has been counterbalanced by a low one, and vice-versa. That says to me that there is a select bunch of voters – maybe 2 percent – who want the government out but are wavering about giving Labor too big a majority. A perceived narrowing now is exactly what is needed to frighten them into line and make them vote the right way on the only day that counts.
People voting against Labor because they’re expecting a blowout is the last thing we need. Chill, people. We’re going to win.
Possum does not seem worried. So neither am I. Much. Well maybe a little bit. But I now I really want Newspoll to be wrong, just so the Shill’s “we understand it because we own it” is banished forever
A question I have meant to ask for sometime now…. why do you all worship possum? i mean i get that he has a blog, and does his thing, but you all have your own views surely… why sprout his?
Regarding Greens preference flows . . . I would be VERY surprised if Labor received less than 75-80%. While it’s anecdotal, I believe that where preferences are directed Labor’s way, around 80+% flow. Where there is an open ticket around 70% do. Of course there is some leakage thru interposing other minor parties, but in the current election most of these (at least in urban/regional areas) will be knocked out long before Greens prefs are distributed.
That’s why it’s REALLY frustrating not to have the primaries tabulated right now. What are the Greens results vs the other minors? I guess I’ll have to wait and see.
Doing Greens HTVs/scruting all day 2moro, so I’ll have to take a break from lurking until after the party. Keep up the pace all – it’s great!
10pse – Because Poss is such an animal with his numbers!
Possums has done up some graphs that provide perspective to the hopeful Lib supporters.
http://possumcomitatus.files.wordpress.com/2007/11/allpollsnov231.jpg
Hawkey was hoping for a record [and he would know insider figures] the SMH tells us that the Nielsen 57/43 reflects more closely both the internal Lib and Labor polling than does the Galaxy…and really, the trend tells us that 54% is just about inevitable.
NOW if Howard had some fantastic news and press coverage and a really good last week…..hahaha…quite the opposite, he had a week that gave even faithfull liberal supporters a bad tasted in their mouth.
Even grannys are voting Green in the Senate and Labor.
I’m no poll expert, but it’s interesting to speculate as to the cause of a large shift (if indeed it exists).
I think there’s one message which has been hammered strongly by the Coalition, and not answered well enough by Labor: “they are full of slogans, but there’s no detail behind it”.
Everyone has heard the slogans a million times by now and I think they’ve over done it. In the last week they should have had more ads illustrating their plans in more detail (eg. all their education initiatives). My GF is a Labor supporter and she is completely unaware of most of the education package that Labor has put forward.
I’m still backing Labor to win, but I think they may have failed to lock in the undecided voters in the past week. Labor has a positive message, but I think some swinging voters are a little suspicious of the “spin” because Labor hasn’t emphasized the detail enough.
BTW, still predicting a comfortable Labor win.
Poss attempts to bring rigorous stastistical methods to bear on the polls. He has opinions which he supports by analysis. His analysis is the most convincing I’ve read.
Re 192,
L Says:
L, you need to understand that there are more issues driving our choice than work choices in this instance where Costello is concerned. While I can’t speak for Joffaboy’s reasons, I can share with you my own. I don’t like anyone in the coalition. I am a left leaning labor voter and in fact just today have changed my voting intention tomorrow from 1 ALP 2 Greens in the HOR to 1 Greens 2 ALP. Reason? – because Rudd scuttled the Republic in the short term in the Australian’s article this morning. While I hate the coalition with a passion, IF they were returned [won't happen though
] I would pray with everything inside of me for Howard to lose his seat and Costello to win as then we would HAVE a Republic. The Queen, as well as JWH, has passed her use-by date. Mind you, I grew up and lived in the USA for 43 years (have been here now for 3) and we ditched the monarchy there in 1776 
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