LIVE ELECTION BLOGGING. Entries should be added at every minute or two. You will need to hit “refresh” to see new entries.
12.10am. ABC computer had Swan as Liberal gain earlier tonight, but it’s tightened.
11.54pm. Forgot about Paterson: turned out a narrow Liberal win.
11.46pm. Macarthur’s 58-year reign as a bellwether is now over. It is now officially Eden-Monaro.
11.37pm. 5.2 per cent in Victoria could have yielded Labor nothing, so they should be pleased with Deakin and Corangamite.
11.36pm. ACT: with no Senate boilover, a boring result.
11.36pm. Swing to Liberal in Franklin a measure of Harry Quick’s popularity. I figured the Libs were in trouble when Nick Minchin started tooking it up.
11.35pm. Bass closer than expected, but Labor. Contrary to expectations, Braddon was an easier win for Labor.
11.34pm. Okay, live blogging of ABC call of the board.
11.29pm. I exaggerated about the Coalition blocking majority. The clear loss of SA and Tasmanian Senate seats will leave them one short. But if they take the final seat from the Greens in Victoria, they’ll be able to do it if they can woo Steve Fielding or Nick Xenophon, and will have an absolute majority in both. A long-winded way of saying the Greens most likely will not have the balance of power.
11.28pm. Not much doubt about 3 LIB, 2 ALP and 1 GRN in Western Australia.
11.27pm. Straightforward Tasmanian Senate result: 3 ALP, 2 LIB, 1 GRN.
11.24pm. Greens firming in SA Senate. Looks like 2 ALP, 2 LIB, 1 XEN and 1 GRN.
11.21pm. Greens falling behind in Victorian Senate. Looking more like Labor 3, Coalition 3. That leaves the Coalition with a blocking majority.
11.18pm. No surprises lurking in the NSW Senate count. A clear 3-3 for the majors, with Kerry Nettle losing her seat.
10.56pm. Straightforward contest between Labor and Greens for last Queensland seat, with Labor ahead. Most likely LNP 3, ALP 3; but possible LNP 3, ALP 2, GRN 1.
10.55pm. Pauline Hanson gets enough votes for public funding.
10.50pm. Libs home in Cowan.
10.47pm. Howard pretty much concedes Bennelong. And here I was buying Nick Minchin’s line about postal votes.
10.40pm. Still early Senate figures from Queensland point to a very tight race for the last seat between Labor and the Greens, with the Coalition clear on three. It is worth dwelling on the significance of the Coalition’s performance in the Senate: they will very likely win more seats than Labor, and will have a blocking majority when combined with Family First. There’s a good chance we’ll get a double dissolution during the coming term, if Labor has reason to feel bold.
10.26pm. Taking a step back, I believe we have a strong Senate result for the Coalition, who will only drop seats in South Australia and Tasmania.
10.23pm. Liberal ACT Senate vote fading a little, but not quite enough to trouble them.
10.21pm. Labor pulling further ahead in Hasluck, not going to win Stirling, probably gone in Swan, not quite dead yet in Cowan.
10.19pm. Lineball in Bowman. The Liberals might lose Mal Brough, and keep Andrew Laming. Great.
10.12pm. Big Liberal win in Swan, actually – over half counted, 0.1 per cent margin, 2.1 per cent swing.
10.12pm. ABC calls Swan for the Liberals.
10.10pm. ABC not yet calling Stirling for Liberal, but they probably should be: with over 50 per cent counted, the Liberals lead by 1.2 per cent. Slow count in Hasluck, but still lineball.
10.01pm. Another big loser from the evening: the tally room. Don’t think we’ll be seeing it again.
9.59pm. Greens Senate position in SA improving. They’re struggling to stay ahead of Labor at the second last exclusion. If they stay there they’ll get up on Labor prefs. Otherwise it will be ALP 3, LIB 2, XEN 1
9.55pm. Labor with a narrow lead in Solomon after half the vote counted.
9.54pm. Big Labor win in Flynn also: 10.7 per cent swing, 3.0 per cent margin.
9.53pm. Double-digit swings: Barker, Blair, Calwell, Dawson, Flynn, Forde, Groom, Holt, Leichhardt, Longman, Macarthur (yet not quite enough) and Petrie. Mal Brough conceding in Longman.
9.49pm. Raw AEC figures from Hasluck have Labor 1.25 per cent ahead from 31.6 per cent, ABC has it lineball from 12.6 per cent.
9.45pm. Labor behind in Swan and likely to lose Cowan, but likely to win Hasluck. Liberals looking good in Stirling.
9.43pm. Not much doubt about 3 ALP, 2 LIB, 1 GRN in Tasmania.
9.41pm. Three seats for Coalition in Victoria, two for Labor, close fight for final seat between Labor and Greens with Greens in front.
9.40pm. Not looking good for Kerry Nettle. Likely NSW Senate result 3 ALP, 3 LNP.
9.38pm. Senate result currently pointing to 2 LIB, 2 ALP and Xenophon, with a very close battle between the Liberals and Greens for the last seat.
9.33pm. Twenty-three Labor gains now from ABC, but the Liberals have probably gained Cowan and are ahead in Swan.
9.32pm. ABC computer now calls Flynn for Labor.
9.30pm. Liberals keeping their noses in front in Sturt.
9.29pm. Stirling count into the teens, Liberal ahead but it’s not over yet. Lineball in Hasluck and Swan. Liberals look likely to gain Cowan.
9.26pm. Scratch that on ACT Senate, I’m now told otherwise. Liberal member Gary Humphries to hold.
9.24pm. Close race for ACT Senate.
9.21pm. Labor ahead in Bowman now.
9.18pm. ABC calls Petrie for Labor, meaning big money for me from PortlandBet.
9.17pm. Smith not sounding at all confident about any of the four Perth marginals.
9.16pm. Not looking good for Labor in Stirling, too early to say in Hasluck. Stirling would have more new development/urban infill than Hasluck.
9.14pm. Quite well ahead, actually.
9.13pm. But Labor now ahead in Petrie.
9.12pm. ABC downgrades Dickson to ALP ahead.
9.10pm. I’m told that early indications for the Senate suggest 3 ALP, 3 LNP in NSW, so Kerry Nettle in trouble, and 3 LIB, 2 ALP, 1 GRN in Victoria.
9.09pm. WA no quicker at counting votes than Queensland. Perhaps it’s the heat.
9.06pm. Big result – ABC calls Forde for Labor. Very little of the vote counted though, as far as teh ABC website is concerned.
9.04pm. Labor probably enough ahead in Bennelong that they’re the favourite. Very tight in Petrie.
9.02pm. CLP 0.8 per cent ahead in Solomon with 15.1 per cent counted.
9.01pm. ABC calls for Dickson for Labor, too early I’d suggest: 0.2 per cent ahead, 14.5 per cent counted.
8.56pm. Very impressive Labor win in Leichhardt.
8.55pm. Very first results coming in from WA.
8.53pm. The ABC is explicitly calling 20 seats for Labor, but might be wrong about Bennelong and perhaps one other. The Coalition can still desperately hope for a scenario where everything else goes right and they can win Solomon, Cowan and Swan.
8.52pm. Labor now back ahead in back-and-forth battle for Flynn.
8.50pm. Narrow early CLP lead in Solomon. Labor out of trouble now in Lingiari.
8.50pm. Early, but looking very close in Forde.
8.46pm. ABC’s calls for Labor in Queensland: Blair, Bonner, Dawson, Leichhardt, Longman, Moreton. No significant figures from Herbert. Kerry O’Brien saying Dickson “in trouble”. Interesting early swing to CLP in Lingiari.
8.42pm. ABC calls Blair and Leichhardt for Labor and gives them back Bennelong.
8.40pm. Nationals have pulled ahead in Flynn.
8.34pm. Line-ball in Sturt, but the Liberals should get up in Boothby.
8.32pm. Labor 1.0 per cent ahead in Blair with 14.3 per cent. Still slow count in Queensland.
8.31pm. Ryan not living up to the hype on early figures.
8.30pm. Still lineball in Robertson.
8.29pm. Labor pulls slightly further ahead in Bennelong, but it will be very tight.
8.28pm. Julia Gillard calls it. ABC computer ticks over to 76 for Labor at that very moment.
8.26pm. Count finally building up in Bonner and Moreton, Labor swings of 7.2 per cent and 4.1 per cent.
8.26pm. Nationals looking good in Hinkler – not a huge surprise.
8.24pm. Big swing to Labor in Capricornia – unnecessary for them, but enforces the picture in Flynn and Dawson. Still nothing credible from Leichhardt.
8.23pm. Many crucial seats in Queensland counting agonisingly slowly.
8.19pm. ABC computer calls Bass for Labor.
8.18pm. Labor also hold narrow early lead in Flynn.
8.18pm. Very big early Labor swing in Longman.
8.14pm. Haven’t mentioned Sturt yet: lineball with a third of the vote counted.
8.13pm. ABC computer calls Wentworth for Turnbull.
8.13pm. Kingston now a Labor gain on ABC.
8.10pm. Early 4.0 per cent swing gives Labor a slight early lead in Moreton.
8.09pm. Very early 10.1 per cent swing to Labor in Leichhardt, 0.2 per cent short of the required swing.
8.07pm. Bob Hawke has called the election for Labor, just as he memorably did in 1993.
8.06pm. Big gain for Labor, according to the ABC: Dawson.
8.05pm. ABC has Macarthur as Liberal retain.
8.03pm. Bonner called for Labor, as expected.
8.02pm. Maddeningly slow count in most important Queensland seats.
8.01pm. Bennelong lead continues to narrow. Now line-ball.
8.01pm. Nick Minchin makes well-made but probably exaggerated point about postal votes in Bennelong.
7.59pm. Big early swing to Labor in Blair.
7.57pm. Finally, intelligence from Queensland. Dawson looking very interesting.
7.57pm. Only a slight early swing to Labor in Kingston, but enough for them to win if they maintain it.
7.56pm. Labor lead narrowing Bennelong.
7.55pm. Line-ball in Robertson. Labor back ahead in Bass.
7.50pm. Very slow count so far in Queensland.
7.49pm. Most of the booth vote counted in Bass, and it won’t be decided tonight.
7.45pm. Dobell down for Labor from ABC.
7.42pm. Not looking good for Labor in Boothby.
7.38pm. Sounds like the entire Poll Bludger readership is at the tally room. ABC computer still says “in doubt” in Bennelong, but surely Howard is gone.
7.40pm. Liberals back ahead in Bass.
7.38pm. Nine seats called for Labor by ABC computer so far.
7.37pm. ABC computer calls Eden-Monaro for Labor.
7.36pm. NEWS FLASH: ABC computer calls Bennelong for Labor.
7.35pm. Labor catching up but still behind in Cowper.
7.33pm. Labor now ahead in Bass.
7.32pm. Liberals doing very well in La Trobe and McMillan – areas which also went against Labor at the state election.
7.30pm. No big surprise here, but ABC computer gives Lindsay and Parramatta to Labor.
7.30pm. Couple of outer Sydney seats Liberals were getting excited about aren’t coming in: Hughes and Greenway, anyhow.
7.29pm. Deakin back to Labor gain.
7.28pm. More figures in from Bennelong and Labor lead still holding.
7.28pm. Early results in Sturt suggest it’s tight. Ditto Boothby, but they’re slightly behind.
7.27pm. Still only 6.3 per cent, Labor looking very good in Bennelong.
7.26pm. Very first figures from Queensland coming in.
7.25pm. Labor ahead in Eden-Monaro, but only just.
7.24pm. ALP computer has demoted Deakin from ALP gain to ALP ahead.
7.24pm. Labor now ahead in Robertson.
7.23pm. Have I said ABC computer calls Page for Labor?
7.22pm. Labor slowly catching up in Bass.
7.20pm. Big Labor swings being wasted in seats they already hold.
7.19pm. Early big swing in Lyne has moderated below 5 per cent.
7.18pm. Malcolm Turnbull looking good on the early Wentworth count.
7.17pm. Labor also falling just short in Robertson and Paterson. Let’s just say it will be interesting to see results from Queensland.
7.17pm. Liberals holding on in McMillan.
7.16pm. Swing in Macarthur also falling short at this stage.
7.16pm. No Labor coup in Hughes, by the look of it.
7.15pm. Nationals just slightly ahead in Cowper, but nothing in it. Lower than expected swing to Labor in Dobell.
7.14pm. ABC calls Braddon as Labor gain.
7.09pm. ABC computer calls Deakin for Labor.
7.09pm. ABC computer calls Page for Labor, Gippsland for Nationals.
7.07pm. Liberals pull further ahead in Bass. 10.5 per cent counted. Still close.
7.07pm. Labor swing perhaps picking up a little in Melbourne suburbs.
7.06pm. Corangamite a Labor gain, according to ABC computer.
7.04pm. Paterson count now in double digits, and Labor will need to do a bit better here.
7.04pm. Said McMillan then and meant McEwen. Corrected. Actually a small Liberal swing in McMillan.
7.02pm. Labor just ahead in Corangamite and McEwen, with almost significant number counted. Not looking like it will all be over before Queensland though.
7.01pm. Swing in Bennelong moderating – below 5 per cent now.
7.00pm. Still no sign of a big swing to Labor in Tasmania; they are slightly ahead in Braddon and slightly behind in Bass.
6.59pm. Double digit swing in Page holding up with 5.1 per cent counted.
6.57pm. Early 12.4 per cent swing to Labor in Macarthur.
6.57pm. Swings everywhere in New South Wales, but Tasmania looking a bit sticky.
6.56pm. Bass count starting to build up to almost interesting level of 6 per cent, and Labor swing surprisingly mild. Probably not from Launceston though.
6.55pm. Corangamite swing to Labor sticking at 6-7 per cent, 3.9 per cent counted.
6.48pm. Big early swing in Gilmore, as you all saw. I had a vague feeling about this one. But yeah, still too early to say.
6.46pm. The very early swing in Flinders caught my eye, but the next booth dampened it down. Still too few to mean anything though.
6.46pm. Tally room over-reaction to 0.2 per cent of the booth in Bennelong.
6.45pm. 15 per cent Labor swing in Page from 1.2 per cent counted.
6.45pm. Dean Jaensch observes 90 per cent of booths swings so far are to Labor.
6.44pm. All very small figures, but all seats with results from Victoria show very mild swings to Labor.
6.40pm. Also a big swing to Labor in Lyne – not enough to win, but significant to the Central Coast and North Coast generally. Throw Page and Cowper on that to-watch list.
6.37pm. Antony reckons he spots an 8 per cent swing on the Central Coast. We’ll be hearing a lot more about Dobell, Robertson and Paterson.
6.36pm. Less than 1 per cent counted in McMillan, only 1 per cent swing to Labor.
6.35pm. Overall swing to Labor of 1.2 per cent to Labor in Tasmania, but these are all small rural booths.
6.35pm. Five booths in from Braddon, only 1 per cent, but 4 per cent swing to Labor. These are the rural parts of the electorate.
6.33pm. Early 8.3 per cent swing to Labor in Robertson.
6.32pm. Antony Green says a 5.9 per cent swing to Labor in Eden-Monaro, regardless of what current figures say.
6.31pm. 6.6 per cent swing to Labor in Braddon from 488 votes.
6.20pm. First figures from rural New South Wales dribbling in. Slowly getting act together. Stay tuned.
985 Comments
Live results from AEC
.01% in
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/
Well, it seems the labor guys on all the tv stations are pretty happy and the libs look likethey’ve swallowed s sh*t sandwich.
Have to wait and see.
Costello’s advisers do not expect a Liberal win.
Still close – Labor to win by 2?
landslide to the ALP… it’s on its way.
Minchin reckons no swing in Bennelong… on ONE booth. lol
wow…4 beers in 40min’s…hurry up and win ALP
Only 4 beers Stark……….lift your game
6 now
Still confindent 10.5 swing to labour in QLD
this is the one and only time im going to say this…GO QLD!!!!
Channel Nine has the Libs in trouble and Channel Two has them holding the line. Crazy.
Its slowly building from how I’m reading it.
Its going to be a long night……….
W Bowe 9.5 to 11 % is projected in Qld 10.5 is seen as the magic figure.
If ALP is winning in Deakin, Corangmite and McEwen and hold them its game over in my opinion.
Big swings happening everywhere.
hows the clapping every time they annouce the Benne figures..like it
Need the swing in QLD to bring it home
Will Howard remain composed in conceding both his own seat the election?
My guess: Yes he will, but only just.
still early i know…current overall swing in VIC is low, NSW on target…so hope QLD is target
ALP has got the election but it won’t be a landslide.
Go Victoria
ABC TC coverage has ALP 39 seats won, 56 to coalition?
Yet the ABC website has 54 to 37 ALP?
TV coverage I mean.
antony calls wakefield
WHAT IS GOING ON?
I am afraid.
I noticed that. I think some drongo has mixed it up, just set up the display then gone off to have a brew.
Well, let’s just say if the ALP can’t win from here…
ABC “Seats Won” figures are flipped.
The figures should be the other way around. ALP are ahead.
Someone at ABC’s IT department is going to be sacked.
yah know so far im loving the FF vote…I like all the zeros…insignificant prefrences
Looking like a cliffhanger
Yah Victoria to deliver 2 seats. Thats 2 seats on the otherside of the firewall
Is anybody watching the Senate race?
I’m following the SA results. Way, way, way too early to call (the Liberal primary is 56!!) but it will be a tough battle. Xenophon has 11%, the greens 5%
Completely useless figures of course, but I like to speculate nonetheless
10 so far ESJ….6 to go
Christ I cant believe that Blonk Jason Wood is going to win La Trobe.
The govt is gone:
6 down in NSW (Dobell,Robertson,E-M,Lindsay,Page,P’matta)
2 Tas: Bass, Braddon
2 Vic: Corrangamite, Deakin
Thats 10, with 3 to come in SA, then Qld..they cant come back from here.
Bennelong is GONE!
Herbet Gone. Dawson a BIG CHANCE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 10.5 in QLD DICKSON IS GONE Bough is off to the camps
Libs are not doing ‘well’ in La Trobe at all…Belgrave, upwey and mortgage belt Berwick still to come in
Betfair will pay $1.03 for an ALP win
Repeat … Wood is in trouble in La Trobe…from last AEC check on la trobe
NSW could be bigger swing than QLD….beaten by NSW again
Antony provisionally calls it for ALP at 7.44pm
HUZZAAAHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ahem….. much as predicted by sensible bloggers.
Labor are now 1.03 on betfair, coalition 11.00 – that says it all!
Looks like Sheriff Johnny could follow Stanley Bruce – both going down over industrial relations. I reckon after that no PM will dare touch the subject again…
hey
go kevin 07 AUSTRALIA NEEDS A CHANGE!
and can u change the law of drinking cheers
Labor are 1.21 in Bennelong
No network yet has the guts to call Bennelong!
But Im calling it
MAXINE Baby!
Shame on you all….JWH deserves his rightful place in history….second to stanley bruce
Please, please let Rod Cocks win La Trobe!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I just couldnt believe that Deakin was going, but not La Trobe.
Yesssss – go the Ruddster. Starting to gently ease the cork out of the bottle as we speak!
blair balir blair!
Antony cautiously calls it ! lol
the cheering is beggining the celbrating has begun kevin rudd is the new PM!!
The ABC Website has Bennelong as an ALP Gain!
Pyne in trouble. Love it.
10.5 % swing in QLD I said it 2/ 1/2 hours ago not on a hunch but on info Watch it come true
Antony’s cautious Labor has WON!!!!!!! 7:50pm
Start printing the new letterheads.
Hi, gals and guys. Looking interesting, looking interesting…
15 % swing in Bennelong!!!!!
looks like all the wavering LNP have gone to Greens…which means ALP
sorry in TAS
I am off but 10.5 is looking good up here.
SA Senate results are NOT what was expected.
Libs are 44, Labor 31, the Greens 7 and Xenophon 10
Still very very early days… but that’s off 2000 votes, which is nothing to sneeze at.
yi yi yi yi !!!! Libs are going down.. hmmm early days but i think its over soon…LABOUR!
Bennelong very close.
50.2 to Labor.
Greens got a swing towards them.
7.8% of the vote, a +0.7 swing
Rattus coming back…
Tassie has done its job….5 in the bag
WA will decide it?
me thinks ACT will decide it?
Labor 67 seats
Liberal 50 seats
Malcolm Turnball to hold on.
anyone single???
I call a Labor victory.
74 ingo…not for now but GF has left to go to her BF house
Fifield commenting on Lindsay is interesting. The Costello-ites positioning against Howard’s favored head girl…
you can see why she left…I cant even say ichigo
Labor 50.8 in Bennelong.
36.1 counted.
Anthony Green:
14 seats majority to labor.
A.Green calls it already,Libs gone.
2 to go… Yes
I reckon Maxine will need to be at least 2% ahead tonight to win. Postals will favour the Vermin.
71-50 at the moment definite.
Labor looking for 82 seats.
The Libs talking about postals. Desperation.
probably a bit more than 52% to be certain but who cares at this point
8:15pm Bruce Hawker & friends called the election for Labor on Skynews!!!!! Hurray Hurray
7TV – Lindsay NSW- David Bradbury about to claim victory and Jackie Kelly congratulates him
Its a labor win.
Coonan saying only the postals can save them now.
Queensland – beautiful one day, ruddy perfect the next. Must visit there.
Leichhardt comes in….im off to vegas
ABC site has no new updates..
Where is Nostradamus?
Whats the beer count Stark?
Kroger is full of it. Carrying on about the postals.
I know I know but at the moment the 2PP after 32.28% of National Vote is 53.6% to 46.40% ALP way – amazing 53-54 2PP vote for ALP who would have thought!
Trends all year have shown it and campaigns mean squat!
Cocks seems to have made a bit of a comeback in La Trobe,still .80 behind though. Still hoping.
Delphin…GF has left me.
Why isn’t anyone telling us how the vote went on the “Extremely important measure of who is the better economic manager”?
I have a nap under Howard and wake up to Rudd.
Hawke has already declared victory.
Big call.
asl stark world?
It is a vote on the future.
Kevin – future
Rodent – past
ABC – Labor
9 – Labor
sky – Labor
7 – to close
Looks like Costello has won his seat easily so he’ll be the new Leader of the Opp.
bennelong update – 50.6
36.2 counted
WA results now coming through. To early to make any predictions
I’ve cracked open the French bubbly – onya everyone! (the white/red wine was already flowing!)
The RAT is dead!
Long live the RUDD!
I’ll be horizantal in t-minus 1 hour
To the Labor faithfuls: finally rid of the right-wing politics that has been so divisive in this country
To the right-wing nut-jobs: eat shit and die!
7TV Lindsay NSW: David Bradbury (ALP) Lindsay has always been a trophy for Liberals. John Howard regards it as his good luck charm. Tonight Lib Party luck has run out.
antony green calls Bennelong.
51.1%.
crowd goes wild.
Howard Embruced!!!!!!!
Howard is GAWWWWWWNNNNN@!!!!
And that pr*ck Brough. Yeah!
Looks like Labor will do it – at around 80, swing of about 7% in QLD, unless there is a disaster in WA waiting.
Some real close results in QLD – small margin, large number of seats on under 2.5% will result. Ironically Labor will not win the 2PP in Qld.
Ahhhhhhhhhh
relief……..
thanks for the site william!!!!!
Our children’s future is looking great.
Narrowing my arse!!!
but what a star NSW is ESJ?
Ray Martin just told Kroger “you’re clutching at straws”
Kroger admitted defeat.
Edward,
How’s the Senator’s heart rate?
Cocks really pulling back in La Trobe now. Only .28% behind now. Im feeling more confident.
Coonon on 9 should be in fright night
7TV claims that Howard is on the way to Wentworth Hotel to CONCEDE at 9PM
I can’t wait to see Downer’s reaction.
Kevin Rudd is meant to be speaking at 9:30pm.
time for another pina colada (actually 12 bourbon)
you fg beauty
happy days are here again
well done australia
my prediction of 82 seats isn’t out of the picture…woo hoo
Bob Hawke calls the election! Says: “Any boss who sack anyone for not turning up to work today is a bum.”
Jules called it first on ABC for the networks.
hockey is dumbfounded.
I feel pretty good because I’ve been saying for months it would be Labor on 80 to 85 seats and they did it.
for more than an hour the electronic tv guide for sky news has had ‘00:30 Howard address’ ‘01:00 Rudd address’
anyone recording it should have a go for posterity
Hehe. Stephen Smith called it at 6.15! He knew something.
Aah, happy days. The Rodent being turfed out would be the icing on a very nice cake.
7TV Andrew Robb says “Howard is under the pump in Bennelong but I won’t concede until John does”
Gee, it’s over for the libs and I’m on my first beer.
Oh well, it’s a long night.
8:40pm Antony Prediction: Lab 85, Coal: 63 Ind: 2
My prediction was: Labor: 86 seats. Coal: 62 and Ind: 2.
Kerry says: “Swing to the ABC” is 5% Ok you can sack Kerry and not be a bum.
time to switch from beer.
79 Definite.
ITS A LABOR WIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ITS A LABOR WIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ITS A LABOR WIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ITS A LABOR WIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ITS A LABOR WIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ITS A LABOR WIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
its goood to see QLD gaining momentum
No I don’t don’t think Stephen called it… he went out on a limb. Anyway Jules outranks Stephen (who will be the best education minister since Beasley snr.).
a win is not good enough…it has to be a massacre
so the 103 opinion polls were right!
Where is JWH?
Senator locked in “private conference” with Tabitha, Paul K.
86 seats please.
The weight is lifting.
Advance.
LABOR TO HAVE 86 SEATS – ABC
22 seat majority.
Well played Nicole – but not this time. You did draw a lot of fire and that helped the cause.
ESJ…the ex-senator
The Libs on Channel Nine are unbelievable. Talk about being in denial.
libs still in denial
isnt denial a river in america
Greens not looking likely in ACT.
Kroger is a wanker
Oh they are just going through the ritual of denying defeat until JWH does it for them.
Hey everybody, Newspoll and Galaxy were actually a lot more accurate then AC Nielsen. Ironic isnt it?
I hate this – I want it all conceded!!!!! Done and dusted!!!!
WA is still in play….
Yeah, but all this stuff from Libs about swings in labor seats was bull. Its a 22 seat majority to Labor.
No, it’s in Egypt.
How is ESJ…LNP is at 36.3 primary?
Rodent meant to be conceding soon.
I think the coalition is about 41.5 and Labor about 43.
Since 7-30 I have only been following the elction on the internet, except when my kids let me channell-surf during ad-breaks in “The Empire Strikes Back” – the theme of the rebels taking on the Emperor and Darth Vader reminds me of something!
36.3 at 8:44pm.
Leichardt an absolute rout!
Has pollbludger called it?
Labor 43.6
Liberal 36.3
National 5.3
Greens 7.8
Family First 2.0
Others 5.0
Greens coming second in Melbourne with 4.1% swing. Great result.
I think we should.
WILLIAM CALL IT!
Wait till WA but it will be about the consensus low 80’s with a margin of about 1-2%.
Goodbye AC Nielsen.
Goodbye John Howard, hello Medicare Gold
AC Nielsen will be around, but it will not be very popular. Like morgan.
Channel Nine has the call back to 77 seats!!! I hate their freaking tally count!!!
Looks like Morgan will be the closest to the ‘07 result.
They’ve redeemed themselves.
How did they do that???????
for old times sakes
unions BOO
Senate votes – ABC is posting once 10% available. So far:
TASMANIA
Elected Candidates Candidate Party
1 SHERRY Nick Australian Labor Party
2 COLBECK Richard M Liberal Party
3 BROWN Bob Australian Greens
4 BROWN Carol Australian Labor Party
5 BUSHBY David Liberal Party
6 BILYK Catryna Australian Labor Party
Detailed Results
Percentage vote counted: 40.76%
Quota: 19683 votes
2 cases down of champs – it’s wild here at home – evreyone’s going nuts – theyre trying to drag me away from the laptop- huge swings in many seats ; WA doesn’t look like its gonna make sweet-f-all to th overal result – elation , tears, relief, phone ringing nonstop. some friends calling from o/s – they cant believe it
2PP vote with 50.17% counted nationwide is ALP 53.87 to Coalition 46.13 – continues to amaze and consistent with 54-46 polling all year – never doubt the trend in polls.
Its around 53%……..
ACT
Elected Candidates Candidate Party
1 LUNDY Kate Australian Labor Party
2 HUMPHRIES Gary Liberal Party
Detailed Results
Percentage vote counted: 20.72%
Quota: 16176 votes
Count 1: Initial allocation Party Transfer Total Votes % Votes Quotas
Australian Labor Party 0 19,676 40.55% 1.2163
Liberal Party 0 16,947 34.92% 1.0476
The Greens 0 10,423 21.48% 0.6443
Australian Democrats 0 788 1.62% 0.0487
What Women Want 0 282 0.58% 0.0174
Climate Change Coalition 0 212 0.44% 0.0131
Liberty and Democracy Party 0 126 0.26% 0.0077
Nuclear Disarmament Party 0 71 0.15% 0.0043
Even Speers has conceded!
It’s been a tough year but it was worth it.
We’re coming back!!
we’re coming back!
hahahahahahahahaha!!!
Eat ratsack and die Rodent!
I see that Garry Humphries retained his senate seat in the ACT. Never mind.
ACT senate:
1 LUNDY Kate Australian Labor Party
2 HUMPHRIES Gary Liberal Party
Greens are nearly in, IF libs lose about .5%.
I love you Maxine, be mine.
9pm 54-36 TPP from ABC
Where are the Lib troll when you need them?
sorry 54-46 TPP
Greens got a vic senate seat.
Antony now says 87-61-2 incl: bennelong
Tas Senate Votes have Greens on 18.48% of the vote. 1.3 quotas. Libs have 37.05% of the vote. 2.6 quotas. Lib vote going down and green going up as big urban booths added.
Could the greens get ahead of the Libs in Tas senate race. Andrew Wilkie?
regardless of the benne outcome the rodent will retire….so whats the point.
Maxine!!! Love that $100 on sportingbet….
Love how Antony’s prediction that the losing side would start talking postal votes has come true!
Where’s Ave ‘It ‘07?
Maxine is now replacing Jim Killen as “The Magnificent “
Christian democratic party getting 10,000 votes in NSW
Anybody knows if Kerrie Tucker in ACT has won?
“190
Lose the election please Says:
November 24th, 2007 at 9:07 pm
Where’s Ave ‘It ‘07?”
Rummaging under his sofa for the cyanide capsule and the Luger
Even Alan Ramsay has to get the occassional prediction right!
The Finnigans, they don’t count the Senate vote very quickly. It’s very tight but I’d say Humphries just has it.
So Paul K did you clean up on the betting?
Mal Brough gone… stunning
Cornes is hot.
Senator has do not disturb sign on the door to the conference room.
Hawkie giving Nelson heaps.
ACT
1 LUNDY Kate Australian Labor Party
2 HUMPHRIES Gary Liberal Party
23% of votes counted
Its a very close race.
Edward,
I didn’t put any bets down.
Hockey on Channel 7 is great viewing…
oh geez he has to sack staff.
unfortunately….women are much harder on other women…if you could do a post election poll…i bet you it was the women who denied nicole not the media. ALP party machine’s fault on this.
That Tony Jones should get a bullet! What a prat! Asks such stupid questions.
Go Maxine!
ABC flogging dead horse on Cornes,lets see see some losing Libs
Joe hocking says Costello definite PM.
Thats 2010 for Labor.
Can anybody with a spare paper shredder please rush it down to Liberal HQ.
Nicole Cornes – What a bimbo!
Jeff Kennett giving advice on depression to Hockey – Joe: suicide is painless!
Nicole Cornes on ABC, what a sweetie. Just because she’s camera shy, so what seems like a very decent person. What a loss.
Greens get senate position in SA.
Howard is gone! Brilliant!
Xenophon is in in AS to.
Qld has done it for Labor
they dont get it…theyre still going on abount unions
Queensland 10 seats to labor.
I thought Tony Jones was a pig to Cornes too!
8 beers and going strong! Just fired off some party poppers.
where’s johnny
in the cellar scoffing the red lol
yes QLD delivers
Who else hates the halfwits in WA?
Six seats under about 2% margin, Ball Lightning for Labor. Thats not a guarantee for 2010 – but if they dont stuff it up they would expect to get a second term regardless, even Gough got one.
Kroger is still going on about WA saving them!!!
They’re calling Latrobe on Channel 9.
I’m going to call the ABC and recommend they fire Tony Jones. Always asks inappropriate questions.
Edward! Belinda Neal won!
Kroger is a fascist!
Come on…leave WA alone…theyre too worried about their curtains fading
Nick Minchin looks like he needs some Prozac.
Go Maxine.
Edward St John wrote:
I think Tony Jones is being a total arse. Not in the spirit of
an election count at all!
Kerry’s “And the swing to the ABC…” is the line of the night.
Tony Jones has an enormous ego – bigger than Howard’s, and that’s saying something.
No greens in SA.
I love Maxine – beating a PM – what an effort
Kerry’s “freudian slip”. Fantastic. Can’t conceal his glee.
Hey, ESJ, Glen, Tabitha, you know who you are, assume the position!
when JWH going to concede?
maybe tony jones backed cornes to win
WOOO MAXINE!!! we’ve waited 11 years!!!
I think JWH will wait for WA to be clear…
i love a sexy intelligent woman…go max
Damn she is good.
LTEP, Yes,
Watching McKew.
Rudd is a fool if he cant get her a ministry. Who do you think is more likely for a ministry, Belinda Neal or Maxine McKew (assuming she gets in)
Greens with a chance in ACT, the Libs Quota has slipped to 1.0436 (i just updated it)
Julia got some competition?
Maxine is very good indeed.
How good does it get?
Maxine EsJ , he’d be a fool not
Where is Glen?
Yahoooooooo.Bye bye johnny bye bye. Good riddance, farewell, you won’t be missed
Shes the best out there. Better then kerry.
I want to Maxine to have my baby.
Glen said he was going to be here, probably in one of the chatrooms
ESJ…there is far too many good people to decide 3hrs after the fact
Glen is watching his copy of the 2004 election.
Maxine is on 51.15 with 31,128 so far.
Minchin says if Howard wins Bennelong he’ll probably retire. (Howard that is, not Minchin lol)
Turnbull’s win is great for the instabililty of the Libs.
Where’s Glen?
so i guess carloine is going back to to malcolm after this
Gee hasn’t Kerry been in fine form tonight! Did the hockster have a sook on ch 7?
Liberals are very shaky in ACT.
can it get even better….turnbull vs cotello…within 3 months
Well I’d say the fight will be as to who gets to lead the Libs for the 2013 poll (the first contestable one I would say).
Howard retire??!! What a coward. In that circumstance, Maxine would win by 20% 2PP. Just remember Ryan.
GREENS HAVE 9.73% OF THE VOTE!!!!!!!! NATION WIDE!!!!!!!!!
I thought Maxines speech was great Grog, why wouldnt Rudd give her a go?
Maxine is very inspiring. Future leadership material possibly.
ITS A LANDSLIDE!!!!
EsJ – Sorry I thought I had agreed with you . There is no reason he shouldn’t give her a go. He’d be a fool not to.
Wow, we all said that SA could go 2-2-1-1, but I never really thought it would happen.
Democrats picked up LESS than one percent of the vote. It’s a sad end
Howard needs 52.6%+ of the last 30.2% of the vote to win Bennelong – seems unlikely.
If i could, i would vote for the democrats.
Greens closing on the Libs in the ACT
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/SenateStateFirstPrefsByGroup-13745-ACT.htm
All the greens need is teh libs to go below 1 quota, due to preferances.
Liberal/National Coalition 12
Australian Labor Party 12
The Greens 3
Family First 0
Others 1
Unallocated 12
Looks good for the greens. 1 in vic, SA and Tas.
Democrats got a 1% swing to them in Wills
Where’s Hockey gone on Channel 7???
And when can we cross to Mayo????? (7% swing against Downer)
Who’s the “Others” in the Senate?
53-47 2PP. So there was “a narrowing!!”
So Shanahan can lead with “The narrowing arrives!!!!!”
Hockey has gone to the pie shop
Meg Lees achieved TWO things – the GST and the eleimination of all Federal Democrats – in 2010 they will lose their last representative in the upper house in SA.
The Nationals must be devastated. They thought they’d hold all their seats.
Because currently it’s looking like,
Liberal/National Coalition 31
Australian Labor Party 26
The Greens 5
Family First 1
Others 1
Unallocated 12
So, FF sides with the Coalition, Greens with Labor, and it’s LibNat32 LabGrn 31. So the identity of the “Other” is important. Left, right, single issue, loonie, what?
As Eden-Monaro goes, so goes the nation.
Mal Brough is a big loss for the Libs.
He shows a lot of class.
Others is Mick Xenaphon in SA.
I am sad Mal Brough has lost his seat. Seems fair dinkum for Aborigines
Anything on NSW seats like Hughes, Cowper, Gilmore & Paterson? Assumption is that they are all safely staying Coalition….
De-anne Kelly loses. Fabulous!
My prediction
Liberal/National Coalition 16-7
Australian Labor Party 18-9
The Greens 4-5
Family First 0-1
Others 1
Unallocated 12
Yup Grog agree.
The Labor party could do worse than use him with the aborigine issue
OK, I have to ask
Does LTEP still reckon the ALP is going to lose?
Mick Xenaphon is definitly in, hes passed the needed quota.
WILLIAM!!!!
Nick Xeneophon,independant more likely to side with Labor.
Whoops, got his name wrong, sorry nick.
Oh yep, Xenophon. He’ll go with Labor. So we’re looking at a hung parliament so far.
Maybe Howard will advise them to do to Rudd what they did to Whitlam when he himself started in Parliament…
er, hung Senate, I meant
Greens will have balance of power after june next year, in the mean time john howard has the majority unless greens get in the ACT.
.
.
LTEP is waiting on the postals.
SORRY SHERIFF JOHNNY, YOU WERE DISMISSED FOR OPERATIONAL REASONS.
Ok, let’s go to the predictions…. anyone have the link to our list?
I know I said 80…
I said 87 – both here and on Poss’s site.
Howard has phoned Rudd to condede!
Well that’s that then, now for the really good stuff – the bloodletting on both sides!
Postal votes = surprise 20% swing to coalition!
LOL
Howards gone on the phone.
“305
Edward StJohn Says:
November 24th, 2007 at 10:06 pm
Well that’s that then, now for the really good stuff – the bloodletting on both sides!”
Dream on.
ACT heading towards the greens.
Ave it that means a gain of zero
George
Did you also predict the captain being clean bowled?
The scum has gone!
and he’s left Kirribilli house…
Howard has done nothing except ride on the back of Keating’s work and waste 11 years.. sorry Minchin.
an extrodindarly leader…who has lost his seat….he he
Howards moving back in with mum
ACT Senate: Lib quota is falling, slowly. Now at 1.0331.
I said 88 and we may still get there. But I know one thing -
“They’ve come back”
Oh joy, oh wonder.
Thank you to the Australian people for showing that you do have a conscience and a heart.
Rudd will govern for all of us. (a special thanks to Qld, we knew you would deliver but the size of the swings in some seats – pinch me!)
Eat ShIt johnnie… the filth has gone.
Enjoy your celebrations comrades.
Enjoy the forthcoming economic chaos hehehehehehe
The current TPP 53.63/46.37 … damn WA dragged it down.
“our industrial relations reforms may well have cost us the election”
Nick “Brainiac” Minchin
ACT Libs quota falls to 1.0277 looking good.
Common FOI
{VoterBoy of Over the Water Says:
November 24th, 2007 at 10:12 pm
“our industrial relations reforms may well have cost us the election”
Nick “Brainiac” Minchin}
True indded
i love the chaos AI07…..I have just won $11k
It’s time Says: “George Did you also predict the captain being clean bowled?”
Yes, that was in my swing calculator as one of the seats that would fall. Although originally (way become before the campaign) I thought there would only be a swing of 1-2% away from the rodent.
BTW, grab the best paper front page from tomorrow’s papers and get into Officeworks – they have a “canvas” art service where they’ll print it up big on canvas for framing – I’ll be there first thing tomorrow for sure!
Rudd will soon get to choose a new Chief Justice and then a replacement for Kirby.
“320
Edward StJohn Says:
November 24th, 2007 at 10:12 pm
Enjoy your celebrations comrades.”
Why, thank you. Not as graceful and elegant as Julia’s fine tribute to the outgoing PM, but that will do for now.
ACT Libs quota falls to 1.0215 looking like a GREEN in ACT.
Props to ESJ for turning up here tonight and being very gracious. Thankfully he didn’t bring Isabell, Tabitha and Glen with him.
Mrs Kina is quite happy.
New government, new beginning. etc etc
yep ESJ is a legend….if he was a better he may be poor but he is a lengend for putting up with our crap
ACT Libs quota falls to 1.0197.
327 n1 – help you fund your move to New Zealand!
actually vegas with my winnings
dont worry i’ll help you out
Howard needs 53%+ of the last 27% of votes to win Bennelong – even less likely.
LOL enjoy it!
Where is Tony Abbott?
Won’t it be a pleasure to see Downer on the opposition benches whining and bleating until further investigations into the AWB scandal force him to resign in disgrace.
Suck it up, Ave it 07.
“Enjoy the forthcoming economic chaos hehehehehehe”
Stupid giggling loser twerp.
Abbott is in Tassie working in the hospital he bought.
I think Howard will get over the line in Bennelong…
Candidate Party Votes This Election (%) Last Election (%) Swing (%)
HOWARD, John Winston Liberal – 48.92
McKEW, Maxine Labor – 51.08
It;s been narrowing – I guess that’s what Shanahan was tlaking about…
“342
Jordii Says:
November 24th, 2007 at 10:21 pm
Where is Tony Abbott?”
Sacrificing a child to Satan.
Sorry… Santa.
Give it up on the Green in ACT, I think… wishful thinking.
Where is Howard?
Jordii Says:
November 24th, 2007 at 10:21 pm
Where is Tony Abbott?
Hiding.
my prediction has been arrived at…84
AI07….no probs…last tiime I was there $3K came my way…I’ll show you what a ALP voter is all about
I am looking forward to getting some sleep, way too many evenings on this blog. Now that it is all settled. But all the fun of the ministry and the opposition leadership, sigh it never ends …
Look at the smile on Costello’s face.
Captain Smirk about to… smirk
If there is in the last 30% a swing of about .02% to greens on the current level then they are in not libs.
It is only 1000 votes different atm.
The Leading Loser, the Lurking Smirker speaks ….
Hey
A great night for Australia!
Now the hard work begins.
Again with the postal votes – frig!
I make 20 certain pickups
6 very likely pickups (herbert, flynn, forde, dickson, bennelong, hasluck) – might be being a bit pessimistic on some of these (from an ALP viewpoint)
2 toss-ups (solomon, bowman)
2 potential losses (swan, cowan).
ALP seat count of 84-86 probably most likely at this stage?
I have just resigned from the position of union rep and will be resigning from the union altogether as well. The final straw was seeing the head of the YR@W driving an AMWU car ( he is not in the AMWU) that my fees pay for. After shafting me i cannot belong to such a gutless using union and my mates will follow me. As rudd is in theres no point being in the union lol
pea hearted pete has surfaced,slime ball
8 seats have swung towards none labor seats.
You got that scaper…
Peter “No Ticker” Costello thinks he just won the election and still the Treasurer!!
I believe the Coalition are looking at 18 Senate seats, so they’ll only be one seat off half. Plus Family First they will still have a blocking majority. Still a bit early to say though.
Costello is the political equivalent of a prostate examination.
Peter Smirk.. the PM that never was
Ball Lightning
Thanks for the ACT Senate count, please keep posting. Go the mighty greens
ACT Libs quota falls to 1.0192.
Peter Costello = Billy Sneddon.
Have been drinking too much since Rudd victory confirmeed.
Can someone give me a snopsis of what has happeened in the senate.
Ancient Mariner Says:
November 24th, 2007 at 10:28 pm
Ball Lightning
Thanks for the ACT Senate count, please keep posting. Go the mighty greens
sure can… new figues above.
Smirk is babbling
Trevor Says:
November 24th, 2007 at 10:29 pm
Have been drinking too much since Rudd victory confirmeed.
Can someone give me a snopsis of what has happeened in the senate.
Greens to get 3 definite, and maybe one more. Nick Xenaphon is in, and labor and libs still fighting.
Costello is conceding. Stealing Howard’s moment in the spotlight.
Thank god the smirk is out of government… taking credit for keatings work and wasting it! Can he survive 3 years in opposition?
Can I say one thing for you all – as you celebrate tonight spare a thought for the bomber – it must be bittersweet.
Ball Lightning…
How far below the quota do you think Humphries has to fall to go down to Tucker?
Hate to say this – i predicted La trobe Wood just…
“349
Geepee Says:
November 24th, 2007 at 10:23 pm
Where is Howard?”
Sacrificing Tony Abbott to Satan.
Yes, Satan.
Thank God…. democracy has been saved at the 11th hour.
ACT Libs quota back out to 1.0212.
The French champagne is waiting for Howards speech…bubble bubble…
William,
I put the QLD Senate figures into Antony’s nifty calculator and it came to 2 ALP, 2 Lib, 1 GRN, 1 FF. Is this how it looks to you?
Ball Lightning Says:
November 24th, 2007 at 10:30 pm
Trevor Says:
November 24th, 2007 at 10:29 pm
Have been drinking too much since Rudd victory confirmeed.
Can someone give me a snopsis of what has happeened in the senate.
Greens to get 3 definite, and maybe one more. Nick Xenaphon is in, and labor and libs still fighting.
Thankss. But does that mean the Libs have lost control as od 1/7/2008?
Can someone tell Smirk he lost
Here we go. Howie is on his way.
Smirk waxing…here come Ratty!
Is Costello giving a victory speech?
The Lying Rodent cometh!
Maxine’s vote is holding at 51.06%..
This is a sweet moment comming up.
Here comes Howard
here comes the liar
wayaway Says:
November 24th, 2007 at 10:32 pm
Ball Lightning…
How far below the quota do you think Humphries has to fall to go down to Tucker?
no more then 0.0071. As all other parties apart from LDP are preferencing greens i think, checking now.
Coalition should lose Senate majority…
My husband, Socrates, wishes me to say that this is, and I quote, “schadenfreudelicious.”
Not that I would, myself, use such a word. I am notoriously bad-tempered. But not tonight!
All others are, but still not 100% transfer…
its gonna happen now
the LNP represents the aspirations of every aspitional voter and the aspirational party that is the LNP represents aspriation…so those who have been aspirational keep aspirated….PC love
please…twitch..twitch…please
The rat has had his shots – he seems “buzzy”
I wouldnt be calling LaTrobe yet. Very much line ball.
I certainly am prouder now John.
Early days but 3-3 Queensland Senators…
{Trevor Says:
November 24th, 2007 at 10:33 pm
Ball Lightning Says:
November 24th, 2007 at 10:30 pm
Trevor Says:
November 24th, 2007 at 10:29 pm
Have been drinking too much since Rudd victory confirmeed.
Can someone give me a snopsis of what has happeened in the senate.
Greens to get 3 definite, and maybe one more. Nick Xenaphon is in, and labor and libs still fighting.
Thankss. But does that mean the Libs have lost control as od 1/7/2008?}
definitly
Is the Rat slurring?
Makes me sick the ,start packing .
Bloody hell, they still cannot accept that they have F****** LOST the election. From the rodent, to Smirk, Kroger etc etc
Yeah, suddenly became a *lot* prouder in the last few hours of tonight…
Happy days are here again
The skies above are clear again
Lets us sing the song of cheer again
Happy days are here again!
Altogether shout it now
There’s no-one who can doubt it now
So let’s tell the world about it now
happy days are here again
sanctimonious little turd. Good riddance.
OK we’ve heard enough now. Please, STFU.
Where’s Kevvie!
Does he concede Bennelong here? Perhaps not, but he should. Just get it over with.
3 stooges on 7 nodding their stupid scones
Look at Hyacinth will you? I think she’s melting…..
Woo hoo Peter Costello is the future of the Liberal Party!
That must warm the hearts of it’s supporters….
Many thanks Ball Lightning (as I skull another drink).
1993 and 2007 – the sweetest victories.
Spiteful, spoilt audience that Howard is addressing. Tabatha and Glen must be in attendance.
Where’s Paul Keating? He should do the warm up before Rudd comes on
Again, you did not make me proud of Australia John.
IF LIBERALS GO DOWN .7% and everyone else is scaled up GREENS ARE IN.
Anthony greens calculator.
Big cheer for Brian lol.. err not really.
The expert at using racism, xenophobia, wasting our money, trashing justice, abusing the public service.. mate you have no honour.
First time he has accpeted responsibility – its only taken 11.5 years.
The labor party puts a tiny (0.24%) towards Libs which is problem.
prouder and stronger and more prosperous…..than other coutries that are not so stronger prosperous
with people… I mean Peter… I mean…. where the f*ck am I?
The dustbin of history awaits you, Rodent.
Go there, now!
What does Howard retire on 150,00 a year.
So he’s sorry to the Liberal Party..
ACT Libs at 1.0222. Up 0.0010.
Right till the end, Smirk and rodent are still trying to outdo each other. Smirk’s victory speech before rodent was incredible
So he’s going to say nothing about Bennelong
Goodbye. He’s out of our lives. How do you feel?
HOW DO YOU FEEL?
Bennelong 77.2% counted and Maxine McKew still on 51.1%.
…I hear knives sharpening…
What about the Tory jerks in the audience, are they an embarrassment or what? They are wrecking Howard’s moment, what morons!
Personal staff out on their arses,unfair dismissal claims coming up.
Wonder if he will say, I now pass the baton on to Cambell Newman
I will give the rodent this….blood is blood…no matter the outcome
Get off
will he hit the grog again?
Sorry can’t feel any sympathy for this man…a cuckoo on the PM nest
blah blah blah – rodent
Has anyone seen this about Overignton?
Caroline Overington denies slapping George Newhouse
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22813951-2,00.html
Shove off loser
What a momentous night!
At last we can emerge from the dark night that this nasty little neo-con man has foisted upon us, and be proud to be Australians again.
On another note, what wild swings in Queensland, how could you pick that? Also wtf was wrong with the delay in results from here, sounds like Ruddster needs to have a good look at the AEC in Qld, might be a few rats there perhaps. And then turn to the ABC Board members.
FFS, can i turn the tele back on yet
Yeah, I think it’s a big ask still for Green in ACT
What a Freudian slip that Hyacinth “has been” his companion for 36 years. As usual Hyacinth pulls him up.
a loser is a loser….you cant begrude family
Greens will come back with the below the line.. but will it be enough.
kina 444…His policies at least will never hit ME again
Caroline is a nutter,must have known the result.
Y-A-W-N… finally, he’s off!
{450
wayaway Says:
November 24th, 2007 at 10:47 pm
Yeah, I think it’s a big ask still for Green in ACT}
It is, but it is possible.
I know most of you won’t agree but I thought Howard made a good speech.
A fairly dignified concession speech, it would have to be acknowledged.
He’s gone! GONE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I almost hope that the Libs cause problems in the Senate, then we can call a double dissolution and get rid of the rest of the swill. Bring it on.
Thanks George, still needed the tv tonight . it was in jeopardy until I turned it off
{457
paul k Says:
November 24th, 2007 at 10:48 pm
I know most of you won’t agree but I thought Howard made a good speech.}
Its the same old thing, but from now on hes not going to be there!!!!!!
I think Joe Hockey is going to cry.
Hockey is blubbering on 7
Typical arrogant prick Minchin. Howard deserves to win his seat and then retire!! And waste $1m for a byelection. How typical.
Of course it was dignified. What else was he going to be?
Stick that up your ass Tabitha and Glen!!!!
464, what a f****** horrible sight that must have been, bit like a beached whale, pack of c****, now they know how it feels.
Coonan on Nine knows her career is gone – she’s over 60 and firmly in the Howard camp.
Well, he didn’t weep. And he wasn’t vindictive. Beazley on Sky just used the word ‘dignity’ to describe the speech.
New mantra, double dissolution, double dissolution, …………………………….
Senate:
Victoria will be a cliff hanger between the greens and Labor for 6th spot.
ACT: Will be close, but probably a liberal
NSW: Definitly 3 each
Tas: 3 ALP (possibly 2), 2 LNP, 1 GRN (possibly 2)
SA: 2 Labor, 2 NLP, 1 GRN, 1 IND
NT: 1 Labor, 1 CLP
QL: 3 LNP, 2 definite ALP, and a possible GRN
Notice how he “lurves” the Liberal Party.
Shorter Howard: Don’t trash my record.
Shorter Costello: I can’t wait to trash Howard’s record.
Shorter Turnbull: I can’t wait to destabilise Costello and take over.
Beazley was saying the other day how when he lost, Costello had said, “The next Labor Prime Minister is not in this House”, and Beazley felt pretty stink. He said he Costello was right, but it was a harsh thing to say, and he looked forward to saying it back to Costello.
“The next Liberal Prime Minister is not in this House.”
Glen, Tabitha,ESJ , etc, etc-IN YOUR FACE!! The people have spoken. Goodbye Ratty and good riddance.
The wicked witch is dead!
Advance.
at this point the senate doesnt matter…a DD will be in favour of ALP not Greeens…the LNP will just be prefrences
Senate:
WA: to close to tell, 2 ALP, 3 LNP, 1 GRN atm
So who will be shadow Treasurer?
Gillard watching Minchin talk his stupid self into his very own hole is a sight to behold.
Julia is very good indeed.
So is Maxine.
A delightful embarassment of riches.
Bill Leak didn’t waver…
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/opinion/cartoons/
Grog Says: “So who will be shadow Treasurer?”
Please, oh PLEASE let it be Downer!
My commiserations Glen, ESJ, Thommo et al. I’m still in heaven!
{477
stark world Says:
November 24th, 2007 at 10:57 pm
at this point the senate doesnt matter…a DD will be in favour of ALP not Greeens…the LNP will just be prefrences}
It does matter, as if LNP get the ACT spot then they control the senate until june next year. But if greens win then it is in the control of the greens
No Hockey!! (Then we can keep remembering him on Seven tonight)
One point that has not been pointed out anywhere and anyone is that Labor actually WON the election rather than the Govt lost it, eg: Keating in 1996.
Greens lost victoria atm.
The Tally Room – it is an amazing experience. I remember 1977 when Hawke was there with Kate Ballieu. The Democrats first night – they had Chardonnay and a cheese platter and no idea what was happenning!
BTW, how many of us are now horrifed at how nervous we were only yesterday? The polls and the Possums didn’t lie, but by God, I had my doubts…
Lead item at http://www.bbcnews.com
Australian PM John Howard concedes election defeat to Labor, and looks set to lose his own seat.
And check out the photo of Howard at
http://www.cnn.com
Not too bad from John Howard …. but Hyacinth did not look happy at all.
Ball why cant my comments be without reason… like Ave it’s or Glen’s
The govt sure did help though Finnigans…
Work Choices.
No Climate change policy
….
(I thank my beloved Xanthippe for access to the sacred keyboard on this most joyous of nights.) Hurray! Aristotle may be right, but after 4 strikes democracy has judged wisely in Australia again. Bacchus has by now taken a heavy toll in our household.
To a philosopher the pathos of the occaision is indeed striking. One of the coalitions few potential future leaders in Mal Brough defeated, leaving only Captain Smirk and Turnbull, with the weaker of the two endorsed by the outgoing Rodent.
Finally, I cannot help but noting that the predicted outcome is now Labor 86 seats, with 2 undecided, causing Socrates (87 prediction) to smile deaply as he reaches once more for his wine glass.
If any of this makes no sense, blame the Houghtons Pemberton Pinot Chardonnay 1999 now flowing in my bloodstream, a most excellent drop. In Vino Veritas
alas, my poor Democrats
I tell you what – that Qld Council merger wedge worked well didn’t…
Still, how great is it to get rid of the Liberal government!
Ackerman must be stewing in his own slime at the moment’
492
stark world Says:
November 24th, 2007 at 11:01 pm
Ball why cant my comments be without reason… like Ave it’s or Glen’s
If your comments had reason then i would except that, the senate does matter which is why everyone is interested in it.
Howard did well with his speech. Let’s give the man his due.
Lab 78 seats + what it can get of Herbert, Flynn, Forde, Dickson, Bennelong, Hasluck, Solomon & Bowman
84-86 in total.
Rudd’s on… go boy!
KR is on
On the drinking theme … what a pity we don’t have the custom of offering hemlock – drink deep you Tory scum
Glen and other Libs, not feeling vindictive, but Mal Brough was your best performer in recent times, and gave a very dignified speech in defeat. If you want to rebuild you have got to find a way to get that guy into parliament in the near future.
balll….irony
Go Kevin!!!!!!!!!!
Very classy acknowledgement of Howard by Rudd in his speech.
Where is is Nostradamus?
Kevs in tonight
Well, looking at the 2 Party Vote
Labor 53.3%
Libs 46.7%
Looks like the Morgan Poll was pretty close with 53.5 to 46.5.
they look to have regained some credibility there, don’t know about ac neilsen though.
My God…no more GG. What is it now??
It’s no “this is one for the true believers”
but he knows he has to be very gracious.
No need to be cocky now.
Concession speeches are no indication of the personal attributes of the person. Howard and Brough are two prime examples.
He needs to not lose votes and potential votes for the future…costs nothing to be generous
Tonight’s all about dignity and scrambling for the high moral ground. Plenty of time for trashing legacies and so on later.
Beg to differ PJK from ‘93, but I think THIS is the sweetest victory of all.
Right Kina.. The campaign for 2010 starts now.
He can win more votes by the way he takes this defeat
This is a great victory speech from Howard. Sounds just like 96, for all of us!
Have they stopped counting in Bennelong? It’s been stuck on 77.18% counted for ages.
victory i mean!
Well i’m going to bed people.
Got a tennis competition tomorrow.
I hope that the greens pick up ACT, another tasmania, victoria and queensland.
Well good night people
Thank you for the site william
Ball Lightning
we could get a DD… so Rudd needs to build more support right now
KR, the Statesman, makes JWH look like a politician ..
Dame Edna is wrong.
He sounds like he’s started running for 2010!
517
DGW Says:
November 24th, 2007 at 11:10 pm
This is a great victory speech from Howard. Sounds just like 96, for all of us!
Howard didn’t win………….
Agree with others, both Howard and Rudd are giving quite dignified speeches. Costelo’s smirk was wider than the grand canyon at the thought of finally being leader. But I bet he will never be PM.
You forget that a lot of postal/prepoll is now as a result of people having to work on w/ends
Alos the day of the ALP forgetting to do anything about postal/prepoll have long gone.
Oops this isn’t Howard is it… Maybe this new guy will be different? He sure is trying to sound like J-Ho
I told you so:
Time To Say Goodbye
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=CBdCO5S0_kI
Excellent – EXCELLENT – speech from John Howard, the best PM this country has had and will ever have. Krudd can only dream of achieving a tenth of what Mr Howard achieved in his political career.
Now to sit back and watch this rabble stuff up the country. it’s going to be fun!
Kevin 11!!!!!
woohoo!!!
Kevin, I will keep you accountable!!!!!
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=BKmXSYi49IU
USA TODAY
Australia ousts conservatives
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2007-11-24-australia_N.htm
Bennelong is done except for pre-poll and postal. It’s likely over.
We won’t get a DD – the Libs would get decimated. Australian’s don’t like sore losers.
The Victorian Senate is close with Labor just falling below the 41.6% threshold .
In Bennelong it pays to look at the postals votes issed.
Sum of AEC and Parties AEC Other Liberal Labor Country Libs National Greens Democrat Total Postal Votes to Date (Incl. GPV)
Bennelong (C) 5035 1403 2 2332 1297 - 1 - - 6789
You can expect that John will receive around 2/3rds of the postal vote. (Based on the 2004 split.
As to absentee its anyones guess…
THE AEC system does not provide stats on absentee and there is no information on the prepolls… Something the AEC should look at in the future..
If the Greens get up in Victoria… And it is early days… Then they will sdo so on the back of Liberal Party preferences.
529,Howard was the best liar the country ever had.
VoterBoy at 489
You guys cracked cracked me up.
Nervous nellies the lot of you
Hey Steven Kaye. Your not Danny Kaye’s idiot twin brother are you. You certainly sound like it. This is not the time for undignified behaviour like your’s. Think about it . Where’s your pride.
Steven Kaye
Ever gracious in defeat.
Let’s reflect on newspoll:
Martin O’Shanessy says that, based on a poll to be published tomorrow, the result is certain to be a cliffhanger.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/23/2099148.htm
KR just a tad pompous. Hit the right notes, but for inspiration I’ll take PJK in ‘93. A little like JWH acceptance in ‘96. Wish he’d use more “we” than “I”…
Rudd’s certainly pouring out sentimental bucketfuls of patriotism, isn’t he. I keep expecting him to offer around a plate of Anzac biscuits.
Never in doubt…I thought it was going to be 90+
Thanks for that Steven Kaye. Thank you for confirming for us that Australia made the right choice today.
But but but…
We’ll all be rooned said Shanrahan!
he’s bringing them back
stephen…hubble bubble….boil boil….2 sugars with mine
you were right possum, I should never have worried.
Nice touch about Bernie Banton, in contrast to that dog Abbot
now he slows down to talk better!
I was very, very proud while watching the PM’s concession speech. I’m certainly not proud of the moronic decision made by the electorate today. What a disgrace.
Awesome results.
Thanks for having us, Mr Bowe.
Howard was the worst thing that happened to Australia…took us backward and wasted 10 years of prosperity. a shameful man that lived on deceit, racism, xenophobia, fear…etc. Our worst PM and worst Treasurer. Thank god the nightmare is over.
Australia, you have decided:
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=BiO_BFgTYsw
551,how about the morons that kept your clowns in .
I didn;t realise up till now that Steven Kaye is Alexander Downer.
How’d you like that 7% swing against you curly?
Steven Kaye,
It’s democracy. You’d rather live in a one party state? You’ve had 11 years. Now it’s Labor’s turn and if they stuff it up you’ll get another turn.
Well at least I have proof I kept the faith:
1065
Grog Says:
November 23rd, 2007 at 10:25 pm
Anyhoo. Enough of this I says. I’m feeling relatively settled, and staying on this damn thing will only get my nerves going (OMG sportsbet has moved 5 cents!!!!)
….
I said 80 seats to the ALP. I’ll stick with it. Though if Rudd’s campaigning strategy has been on the money, I believe it will be more. But I’ll take 80.
Steven Kaye get off the site, go in the shower, suck your thumb and rock yourself to sleep. You’re the moron mate!
I s’pose old Dubya in Washington must be feeling lonely now, he’s the last one left, every other President or PM who supported the invasion of Iraq is gone now.
hey guys…i like steven…he’s just entertainment!
“to this their son” .. rather a quaint form of words to refer to himself
Stephen, you seem a bit miffed. Are you out of a job? Never mind, with Newmann still mayor of Brisbane there are probably many opportunities as parking inspectors.
Rudd’s speech is too long, says my wife.
Steven Kaye
You display the same vindictive small-mindedness as Howard.
Little wonder you lost.
Australia has woken up.
‘bye
C’mon end with an inspirational bang – sounds like a bureaucrat
Agree, speeches are too long. Can we have interviews with the losers now please? I hear Shrek was blubbering on 7.
But a sound bureuacrat…
Steven
I recall a similar dummy spit from John Moore representing the born to rule class on TV in 1993. Loser.
What a magnificent campaign, stayed on message in contrast to that other shower, and we get Julia as a bonus, geez she is as smart as a whip, not to mention people like Maxine (go you good thing) and Penny Wong. HALLELUJAH.
Well this means Kyoto is signed and Australia will withdraw from Iraq. How is Dubbya feeling now?
And my “notoriously bad-tempered wife” wants the keyboard back. Farewell to fellow citizens of Athens. Peace to Glen, kudos to Rudd, Swan and Gillard. They were given an opportunity, and ran a great campaign.
And it looks like Morgan actually got it right, with a 43.5%-41.5% primary vote breakdown. Nielsen’s looking utterly ridiculous, as I knew they would. In fact, what happened to that stratospheric Labor primary everyone was forecasting all year?
Steven Kaye, once again, suck it up and accept that finally the Australian people have rejected racism, dog whistling, divisive politics and right-wing ideological agendas. They’ve rejected a flavour of neo-conservatism that should be put to bed forever more. And as far as your thoughts on Howard and Rudd, we don’t give a f*ck, not one bit.
Couldn’t agree more Basil. I think Julia was a standout on the election trail, almost from obscurity.
Doesn’t matter Steven Kaye, the ALP won.
Steven
You lost.
We won.
Get used to it.
Red Kez to Munchkins, now you are facing wall to wall labor governments.
Yeah, now its our turn you bastards!
Where the hell was Keating??? Have they hidden him away.
Correction new Senate results show labor now above 42% Looks like a 3 x 3 in Victoria. Well done Feeney
Now I am happy… (Just need John to loose his seat in Bennelong) Shame about Alex D…
#575 -
“Doesn’t matter Steven Kaye, the ALP won.”
Unfortunately, Australia lost.
580, piss off
Steven Kaye, i bet you’re having a cry… go on, you can tell us, you’re amongst friends.
Yeah bet he is a f***** girl
hiya everyone, just want to say how much better i feel now!
if this is what a loss is…then give me a loss evrey time
Steven
It’s called democracy.
Happy naked dance time. And a one and a two, Step to the left, slide, skip, jump, spin, dip, twirl…fall down delirious
Cheers
Hey chino, me too, must be catching
Someone get over to Kirribili and open up the place. We need to get the old person smell out before Kevvie needs to use it.
No Steven, Australia won. Haven’t you been paying attention? Alseep at the wheel with your coalition cronies?
They should have had PJ Keating on the stage with Kev, really rubbed it into those inbred tory creeps out there!
but what happens with bennelong? vote counting stopped at 77% and a 5.27 majority, with no declaration from either howie or max, or the AEC.
Where does Johnny sleep tonight ,maybe he could share S.Kayes bed.
chino assume postal prepoll whatever, still nervous but reasonably confident
593, probably already has
Coonan and Kroger are now being quite gracious in defeat.
LTEP, now is the time to come clean. Are you Gerard Henderson?
593 Well Hyacinth certainly won’t let him near her because he’s not got that nice big house anymore.
DLP did not do as well as expected Family First I was spot on.. Much of my Senate prediction has come true.. There has been a strong consolidation behind the major Parties. WA is interesting (They’re still counting being 3 hours behind Eastern Australia… SA the x factor did not do as string as some polls were predicting. one seat only…
Greens left at the Alter again. This time sold out by the Libs and a string ALP vote in Victoria. Great Result… Still I guess those Greens will skim off a Million on public funding… There not as Enviro friendly as you might think. Australia really needs a true Environment party and not some ultra left party in disguise.
#593
pru’s place
I am sad but not about the election, how will I spend my evenings from here on in?
There isnt another election for ages? no?
Goodnight all. I’m not off to bed, but rather some more serious drinking to go – see you guys back here soon. Thanks to everyone who made this campaign bearable, and I look forward to keeping Rudd Labor accountable.
I also look forward to meeting some of you in person maybe – I’ve met a couple of you through these blogs, and it’s been awesome. Cheers.
Love how Kroger says there’s not much to fix with the Lib Party…
By the way, drought breaking rains in parts of queensland today, floods on darling downs, it is true then that labor brings the rain, also good rain in catchment of brisbane dams.
Edward,
Console Glen and Tabitha. They’ll need anti-depressives for a start.
Maxine McKew leading 45.9 to 45.1% and Antony Green tipping her to hold on even after postal votes. Thanks to those who pointed out that Sportingbet was offering the free $100 bet!
what ever Rudd does from here… he has saved Australia and its democracy from Howard’s sick plans. He has done us a great service already.
that is good news Seamus, looking forward to collecting on sportingbet on that one, plus a couple of others
Now it is time to plan for the future.
Seamus I’m not so confident (but I was also on the $100)
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-13745-105.htm
Dave 55
This will hardly shock you now but I have worked on hardcore liberals booths in Berowra for a long time and today was the best ever. The liberals were depressed and I had a constant stream of first time voters looking for Labor HTV cards and advice on voting properly. And the night just continued the joy!
scaper… how’s the trump going??
Where is LTEP?
Let me just say woooohhooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
To all the doubters, this is why there was nothing to fear, nothing to fear!
The good fight has been fought and won.
Word has it there is a newspoll outon Monday which shows the Libs in front 52-48,
ESJ, not unless your lot gets control of the senate and then we have to call a double dissolution, and we can get rid of dolly, smirk and the rest of them.
Fat Joe nearly shed a fat tear.
Tabitha may say:
Winners are grinners
Losers can please themselves
Before the Green soothsayers chime in about below the line votes. The data published on the AEC site is based on First preferences allocated to a group. IE they voted one for someone in that group. Most people stay within and preference the group of their choice so you can more or less say that 70% of the below the line vote remains with the party of first choice. Any below the line vote for the liberal/ALP number 3 will be locked in in the count. The number of below the line votes that vote for a major party and skip before the number three is very small.. There is no optional preferential voting in the Senate. The ALP in Victoria is showing three quotas 42% The Liberal Party would need to fall below 37% (Unlikely) … Outcome determined on the primary count. It would be quicker for the AEC to count this election manually then to do a data-entry preference count. Looks pretty much the same in the other states.
Eat dirt!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
#586 -
“It’s called democracy.”
Democracy? When the media manipulates the weak of mind into voting out a brilliant Prime Minister? That’s democracy? Hah!
Alex Hawke gets in, but suffers a 10% swing against…
Tomorrow it will be a sweet morning, the birds will be chirping again, the sun shining, damn right it will be a beautiful day!:)
whgat a great day. quite drunk
burgey what do you think shamaham will say on Monday. ‘Labor victory thanks to Lib’s’..maybe
Burgey 616 don;t worry, on MOE we’ll be ok.
The next issue of the day….Liberal party internal wars
Steven K: Pleassse!! Labor won despite media bias, not because of it. A neutral media probably would have seen a 60/40 result to Labor.
Nath me too. quite suprise I can still type
Burgey @ 616 LOL
ESJ./Basil.. It is unlikely for a first term government to call a double dissolution partially given that they would have more to lose the next senate election then their opponents. The Liberal party have lost control of the Senate thanks to the ACT… (Who have a double dissolution every election). No do not expect a double next election. Labor should seek approval/by-partisan agreement to adopt a four year-term. We should also become a republic and get a new flag…
The icing on top of the cake…
Steven
Ah, you’re going through the anger stage of coping with loss. You’ll feel better tomorrow when you’ll find out it was all a bad dream
what happened to pyne anybody??
It looks like the final Morgan poll was dead right.
Galaxy is f***** so is Nielsen, Newspoll so so
Shananhan says Rudd’s first day on the jobsuggests he is unlikely to be re-elected in 2010.
Oh steven kaye, your capacity to insult the Australian people knows no bounds
well actually the 5th estate was right…
Hey, Steve K, why don’t you have a couple of drinks and then a couple more and then buy some rum. And then go away and leave us alone.
Ta
Shanahan says: Howard hangs tough in Mitchell. Still preferred on economic management.
God, I’m so pissed. Think I’ll have a another triple bourbon.
God love u all.
what you all reckon… two terms of labor?, maybe more? god I hope….
and when will the spills start for the former evil empire? I give them 12 weeks at the outside
Pyne looks likely to hold on (only just though)
Just wait for the leadership challenge… next exciting installment:)!!!
612 Grog
Who needs a trump when you hold all the cards?
We will see what eventuates, hey.
Pyne is right wing fascist bastard bully boy. He got the scare of his life but he’ll hold on.
I happened to switch over to 9 early tonight to see Robert Ray say to Kroger, “are you still on the ABC board, no, oh well that is one less to get rid of”. How soon can we expect to hear that Madam Lash has fallen on her sword?
There’s always some good news to take out of a situation like this – Labor’s two prized bimbos in South Australia, Handjob and Cornes, failed to win their seats.
And I congratulate West Australians on not joining the lemmings in the East in their headlong plunge into disaster.
A dream come true, we got our country back. Happy, happy, happy chappy!
There won’t be a DD. If you think Rudd or Costello will want to head back to the polls quickly you’re crazy. They’ll compromise on legislation and Costello won’t want Work Choices hanging around his neck.
…but Mal Brough bit the big one. Sweet justice.
hear hear to that!
looks like lots of the former GG staff might be looking for work now
What was “the trump” though scaper…?
I thought the “the spending stops here” in the speech was pretty good.
Melbcity: “The Liberal party have lost control of the Senate thanks to the ACT”. Really? The ABC has Gary Humphries on 34.07 per cent.
I wondered about that as well
Steven Kaye,
I hope your not going to be so grumpy for the whole of the next 3 years.
648 SK, you really are dolly arent you?
aj – Pyne leads by a tiny margin (50.05 to 49.95) at the moment but will likely hold on after postal votes.
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-13745-190.htm
Crikey tips and rumours:
“Umm actually we got nothin on Rudd. Sorry didn’t mean to get you worried at all”
Wilson Tuckey. Next Shadow Treasurer???
Where was our Nantucket Sleigh Ride?
just in from an election party -Im sooooooo happy yhank you NSW and QLD
Well, hopefully we’ll get a govt for everyone not just the rich bastards among us.
Kevin 07 – dont let us down (just change it all now you’re in!!)
wow, how much will my k07 shirt signed by maxine 2 weeks ago be worth now? of course, i will never, ever sell it.
Props to Stephen Smith he got in first and got it right.
I’m wearing mine to sleep tonight
When they first said Bennelong was swinging away from the Rodent and likely to be won by McKew, I cried. I tear up every time I hear about it. What a wonderful night.
Did Antony mention the Nantuckey sleigh ride??
Smoked the biggest, fattest cigar tonight (mrs not happy) – oh well, hard cheese!!
Whooppeee!!!!!
Hope Barrie Cassidy cries in his weetbix tomorrow .
hey piers, how’s that little heiner thing going, you odious freaking toad? eat sh*t and you know the rest!!!
wish I had a Kev 07nt shirt. Will just have to settle for my Maxine T.
Grog…..fishing?
So is Morgan back as the #1 polling outfit??! They’re final poll was almost spot on on primary & 2PP
Dave @ 661 – it was in NSW, SA, Qld, Tassie and to a lesser extent in Vic.
lol don’t care now scaper… just interested.
someone want to confirm what the senate situation is?
Balance of power appears to be with no pokies, ffp and the greens?
Gary morgan has rung galaxy and newspoll and said the following
‘nah nah nah nah nah!’
And here’s one for ‘Ad it 07:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/
Grog
A reduction of a tax or excise would not be considered inflationary.
Late Finish,
Yep Morgan nailed it, but what about Gary Morgan’s comments that 20% of Labor vote was still soft, which was based on bogus criteria. It pissed me off throughout as a two bob each way cop-out if Labor lost.
I am soooo glad Howard is gawn!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
My pe#nis is so hard! I am 41 years old. The last time Labor won office, I was 17!! Odds are, next time they win from opposition, I’ll be in my sixtie’s!! To all the true believers, go hard tonight!!!
Best WTF moment – Queensland overall.
Forde, Dawson, Leichhardt (ok, that one not so surprising, but the magnitude of the swing was), Longman, Dickson (maybe), Petrie with a decent margin – WTF?
A toast to Queensland!
Scaper, Congrats from another Blogocracy bloke. Well done.
I did nicely with the bookies when Jim Tourner got up in Leichardt. Our fair electorate managed to score one of the biggest, if not the biggest swings in the country. 14.5%. Like Eden-Monaro we have remained a bellwether seat and have changed hands again. I got odds of $2.60 so am very happy.
I was absolutely right that all those tourism workers had their base ball bats out for a government that destroyed their overtime and was indifferent to the destruction of the GBR from global warming.
best if luck everyone, been great. I dont have to think about politics for a long time again. ciao
Bye Nath.
Hemingway
I think the soft vote was Gaz kept rattling on about was an attempt to counteract Newspoll’s constant referral to data they had on those who make up their mind on polling day. EIther way Gaz Morgan has won back a vast amount of credibility.
What’s the fallout from AC going to be?
Bugger you lot! Go on, get all teary about a new Orstraya, and cry into your beer about the humanity, and your kids not having to sign their dignity away with a contract to work for nothing, but I’ve got to get the truck down to Kirribilli in the morning.
What a gawd awful prospect, to get the old guy, in his tracky daks, into the truck with his portrait of the queen, and his wife on horse tranquilisers. (She’s being sedated now, but will be foaming at the mouth by breakfast!)
Go on, celebrate if you must, but spare me a thought tomorrow morning, having to cart that old political corpse out of Kirribilli House.
Well, fwiw, I think the WA result largely against the trend had a lot to do with the ongoing resources boom and nothing much to do with other factors. I think a big lesson should be learned from this — howard claimed credit for years and he was believed. Clearly none was due for WA’s situation.
Hi guys! First-time poster here. Quick question: Does anyone knows when the individual polling booth results become available for public consumption?
Newspoll was pretty accurate with the primaries – 43%-44%. The count at the moment has the Coalition on 42% and Labor on 43.5%. Galaxy, too, was pretty spot on. It was only the grotesque John Stirton at Nielsen who really stuffed up – and, of course, all those polls throughout the year that had Labor in the high 40s or low 50s were absolute rubbish.
Just proves what I’ve always said – polling is completely useless except in the last week of an election campaign.
Other good news – the Greens’ improvement on their 2004 vote was negligible and Kerry Nettle is gone!!
It will be interesting to see what Costello does with all the ex-Howard Ministers. Does he dump them to try to make a break with the past or does he have to suck up to them and reappoint them as Shadows. I hope he makes Turnbull Shadow Treasurer.
ooooh Im gonnna enjoy the fallout from this!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Ah the old supertax (which should be done!)
We now have a new Labor member, see you Richo, and a new government. Maxine is a winner.
Let me be magnanimous. I acknowledge that about 47% of Australians would prefer John Howard to be Prime Minister. This is the same amount of people who preferred Mark Latham in 2004!
I gotta say, I am really proud of Queensland, I thought we would go all redneck and vote LNP in, but we embraced the future and played a pivotal roll in the new era of Rudd. Awesome stuff.
Hems… it is worth it.
Advance.
NSW right…the nutters…what can they do? These people should make up their own Facist party.
Morgan also said Bennalong would be held by Howard
What is the latest 2PP count for the nation as a whole?
I was sort of right to not have too much faith in the bookies. Yes they had Labor winning BUT they had John Howard holding onto Bennelong. I thought he would, damn if I knew that I would have put money on Maxine McKew.
One last thing in the beginning the ABC’s seat count had Labor way behind the Coalition. I was shitting myself, but then I went to Sky News and Labor well ahead. After awhile the ABC got their act together had fixed the seats won banner. Phew, I was scared for a moment.
Now here’s my big question – the Senate? Who will hold the majority from July 1, 2008? Not the Coalition again please.
Well done William Bowe – a great effort.
Thank you.
What will Dennis Shanahan write in his next column?
Ash – was your pe#is last hard when you were 17?
Mind you, I shouldn’t joke – last itme ALPwon from opposition I was 13, so there’s not much difference!!!
Anyways, cheers to Glen, ESJ & S Kaye who fronted & put their positions as a significant minority (like their supporters are a significant minority in Australia right now) but who had a go. Fair play to you.
Thanks William, and thanls to Possum as well for his site.
You all da bomb and I’m reall t hammered now.
Rock on.
The stress is over…phewww… can relax for a few years now and enjoy FOI releases from the past 10 years to The Australian to keep us entertained.
well. BetFair still offers bet on Bennelong
McKew 1.1 / Howard 3.8
TPP Results so far:
Liberal/National Coalition TPP= 4,602,306votes or 46.76% Swing -5.50%
Australian Labor Party TPP= 5,240,615 or 53.24% Swing +5.50%
It’s funny how yesterday and early today everyone was stressing but in the end it all came good. It’s almost hard to believe.
Just goes to show that it can’t rain all the time. Feels like the country has got its soul back, and that’s a mighty good feeling.
Thanks paul k.
Steven Kaye at 690 said:
“all those polls throughout the year that had Labor in the high 40s or low 50s were absolute rubbish.”
That’s not a very nice thing to say about Crosby Textor, they had the ALP at that for most of the year.
Phew. Well thanks one and all – and especially William B. Great effort. lol
I’ve been going over some of the posts fom yesterday trying to find one by someonewho suggested the Libs would barely have a swing against it in QLD. lol
As I’ve always said, compared to Latham Rudd was going to kill in QLD. But geez.
Anyhoo, good night one and all.
Well done Morgan.
ALP 44% primary – hard to believe some panicked when a newspoll a couple weeks ago had it at 47%!
Interstingly all the loss of vote was from the Libs. The Nat’s essentially stayed at 5% And FF got 1.93% (a bit less than Galaxy’s 2.5%).
Enjoy the papers tomorrow.
ciao
kina
No time to relax, it’s time to get pro-active and meet the challenges that face us.
We have been given the opportunity now to facilitate a long term plan.
Got to seize the opportunity.
Just got home. Drunk as all hell, have been at the work Christmas Party. But HELL YES. The moment that we have all been predicting for the last 9 months seems to have come true. Goooooo PM Rudd, hope he rises to the occasion. Does anyone know where to find senate results? Link appreciated as am barely able to operate a keyboard at this stage.
Thank you William, I have appreciated the opportunity you have provided to participate in this blog and to all participants I enjoy your contributions,
Just having a look at Newspoll this year – in 21 separate polls they had the ALP’s primary vote at 47% or higher, and in 6 of them it was at or above 50%! How could anyone have actually believed that to be possible?
So did you Possum or should I say Mr Goldstein/Mr MacPherson.
Yup, i cried.
For the last 11 years i have consoled myself with the basic truth that some fights must be had. Even if you suspect or know you will lose, you must still fight, simply to keep the cause alive. Humiliation, hard as it is, means nothing. Keep fighting if its what you believe in. Because days like today happen as well.
To Glen; although i think you are an immature fascist manipulator of appendages (yup this is a 1/2 of Jameson’s speaking), if you really believe, stick with it. Apart from giving me someone to beat up on online for the next decade, we need difference in politics, or we are really doomed as a society. I have been where you are probably at now, and i wouldn’t wish it on anyone.
Advice: Drink more and find a VERY bad woman (maybe Tabitha!!!!).
Ok, so the actual reality is that you are not actually beaten in a political sense till you chose to roll over and die, but as a unionist who has had to negotiate with a large employer and represent in the workplace at the grass roots level, let me tell you, its been a shit since Rattus took power. That bastards legacy and lesson to those of the left is NEVER give up. Fight as best you can with whatever you have.
Read Sun Tzu, it will help make sense of both the political wilderness and the view from the high ground. Even better, understand it!!
I feel somewhat vindicated as is natural after an election win. Even won a fiver off the boss!! And now, it goes on. Hope Rudd and Co do well. Julia for PM after Rudd has 2 terms though!!!!!!!!!!!
Seeyahs!
where is Lose The Election Please? his side lose?
Look, this is unbelievable. I was actually deflated when Stephen Smith predicted a 20-25 gain by Labor! (By the way, congragts on a spot-on prediction!) Just shows how wild our expections have become! There is a lot of low hanging fruit for 2010!
pissed.. hard to see keyboard..my estimate of 79 setas puts me in the pessimiist camp
You beauty… Mia not dead yet in Sturt…The long dark night has finally broken…
walking in a Kevin wonderland
Beazley had it right… he says Rudd will lead for 12 years but his first election will be the closest one.
I can’t wait to see the first news bulletin that reads – Opposition Leader Peter Costello. Ha! Couldn’t have happened to a nicer guy. Not PM Costello but Opposition Leader Costello. Sucked in you wage destroying gimp!
#710 -
“That’s not a very nice thing to say about Crosby Textor, they had the ALP at that for most of the year.”
And they should have known that kind of support for Labor would never eventuate in an election. Actually, I think the ALP should be concerned that their primary wasn’t higher.
Kina,
Are you now the left wing version of Nostradamus?
Absolutely tremendous job William B. and Possums C.
Haha, so bloody Morgan were closest after all
Heres to a cabniet dominated by ex trade union officals.
Australia has given us a mandate!
I’m sure they’re terrified. Shaking in their boots. It probably means they’ll get voted out in about 6 to 9 years.
Indeed ND,
If Rudd rolls over to you guys it will be a short lived cabinet, but after the campaign I believe him that he will keep you guys at arms length.
William, I’m hardly sober enough to type this, but please accept my thanks for your brilliant efforts, even if it means a big job removing one rodent and furnishings tomorrow morning!
As I put a nice wager on Ms McKew some weeks back, I’ll be slinging a bit to yours truly when I’m sober!
KR
I feel like its the end of the Poseidon adventure and that music comes on ” there’s got be a morning after”
There is a serious chance that O’Connor will fall to the Nationals. The Nats have polled above the ALP and will therefore pick up almost all Labors and the Greens preferences. My life would be completre if old Iron Bar Tuckey lost.
NB: I did mention this months ago, im glad it may come true.
Edward,
I don’t think you’ll notice much difference now that Rudd’s in charge. He’s a ’steady as she goes’ kind of guy. He’s not a revoltionary. That’s not what Australians wanted. He’ll be pretty much middle of the road on most things.
Only disappointment of the night was to see Pyne get up by such a small margin.
Mia really was a superb candidate & I think would have represented those of us in Sturt very well.
I see he’s already talking about becoming deputy Liberal leader (God help the Liberal Party).
Just got back from the ALP party at the Semaphore Surf Lifesaving Club in Adelaide. Was great to hear victory speeches from Steve Georganas (Hindmarsh) and Mark Butler (Port Adelaide). I hadn’t heard Mark Butler speak before, but he is very impressive, and will be a future minister in a Rudd Labor government. Congratulations to all associated with the ALP.
ABC reckon Wilson will hang on.
The Liberals will wake up tomorrow without a leader. I wonder what they will do.
Rudd has done an absolutely amazing thing. Took over in December and hit the ground running and didn’t stop until now. He has held it all together for so long with the MSM just waiting for every slip to condemn him. He has been brilliant.
Beazley did make the point tonight that the it is always the first election of a government that is the hardest one to win.
No Paul K – not for me. I am simply happy Rudd broke the Howard hold on democracy. I would have voted for him even if he were Mickey Mouse. Most important thing to get rid of this dangerous govt.
I doubt Rudd will last that long without a challenge. There is some serious talent around him, if he goes on the nose they will out him quick. Not like the silly Libs.
Last night on Lateline, Trioli started the program with a smarty bum “It WAS the economy, stupid!” Well to Trioli I say, “Stupid, it WASN’T the economy!”
733 Paul K,
I think so too.
As Tony Abbot’s mate Jesus says: ” Man does not live by bread alone “.
Can we hear more from Steven Kaye? He’s cracking me up.
Eddie at 716, if illiteracy is your coping mechanism – more power to you.
McPherson and, for that matter, Ryan are very interesting though – although for two different reasons entirely.
Forde became a cracker of a seat.
Paul K #736
I know he will probably hold on I just like the thought of him loosing O’Connor.
Which if any Liberal members will now retire rather than wallow in opposition?
Its kind of ironic Paul K, despite being tagged as a “Liberal” on this site many of the doubts I had about Rudd were assuaged over the course of the year.
I think he will break decisively with the unions and I think he bring in some moderate IR legislation, do something on climate change, spend more on ed and otherwise be steady as she goes.
Thats not too bad all things considered.
How long do you give Gillard as Deputy PM?
When will have the final result on Bennelong?
I bet $200 on McKew @ $2.3 back then out of hatred of Howard (not that I believed McKew would win
Possum I am relaxed and comfortable.
Your predictions were your predictions, you did predict a rock solid ALP primary of 46% as I recall and a loss of the doctors wives heartland at one stage.
Too much reliance on econometrics
And the interest rate/vote correlation went down the drain too Possum
S Kaye @ 723 – well now the alp have incumbency. if they’re behind they’ll have the narrowing to rely on as the election draws closer.
Edward,
I hope you still are going to be around to talk politics in the future. There’s an election in the US coming up and maybe one in the UK and lots of interesting stuff will be going on with the new government here and the new Opposition.
Just remember Lefties, when the Coalition came to power back in 1996, it was with a primary vote of 46.9% compared to Labor’s 38.8%.
What was it last night? 43.5% to 42%? Hah! Pathetic.
Just got back from a great election night party – everyone was SO happy, lots of cheering and dancing. Just great. An historic night for sure.
So congratulations to all those wanting a change of government. And my commiserations to Glen, LTEP, and the others.
Thanks also to William for providing this very informative site.
It’s a new era, and the end of Howard, maybe even the loss of his seat. I’m sure there will be LOTS of analysis to come – how did it all go so horribly wrong for the Libs?
Gillard will remain deputy…it is a plus. People will get familiar with her.
Time to break.
PAUL KEATING’S 1993 VICTORY SPEECH WAS WRONG !!!!
Paul said “this was the sweetest victory of all”
No Paul , the Rodent’s 2007 humiliating defeat IS the sweetest victory of all !!!
Why ?
well not only did the Rodent lose BUT FOR EVER MORE
Howard will be remembered as the PM who ALSO lost his own seat
frank don’t worry. You will win big time.
Arghhh!!! My other half has logged on to Pollbludger and is giving me heaps. Must be more polite in the future.
Glad the LNP got a caning though!!!
Willam – cheers for beers for the site. Well done mate.
WOW! WOW WOW WOW!!!
WHAT A NIGHT!
I watched the ABC and got depressed after promising exit polls. The early figures Antony Green brought up were shite. I thought here we go another disaster. But then we decided enough of this crap. We changed to Ch7 and got a better labor asap with the tower of power. And then we switched to Ch9 and there they had the countdown to 6 more seats to Labor for win. We cheered we cried we laughed and we finally relaxed and enjoyed the night. CH9 was right on the pulse of the night and ABC was far too cautious. So every time the seats when down to 6-5-4-3-2-1 we cheered.
If you change the govt you change the country. TOO BLOODY RIGHT YOU DO!!!!
HOWARD GONE IN THE SUNSET OF LIFE!!! RUDD IS THE FUTURE.
BYE BYE LIBS YOU PRICKS!!! GOOD BLOODY RIDDANCE!!!!
DIE AND ROT IN HELL!!! YOU DESERVE IT!!!
THE FUTURE IS HERE NOW! GET OUT OF THE WAY OF THE FUTURE!!!
NEW BEGINNING STARTING NOW!!!
And today the Liberals polled worse than Latham Labor.
What happened to the Greens? I thought people on this site were saying they were going to take over from the Libs and become the new Opposition.
As for “smirk” (Peter Costello :
well he aid in opening his speech he would not comment on the overall election result and then proceeded to effectively concede defeat
No Government has ever been a ONE TERM government in last 80 years
Guess what “smirk” , you can never been PM !
Good Night All.
Maybe now the ALP can tell its economic story.
That It was the party that delivered the floating dollar
That it was the parrty that deregulated the banks
That it was the party who removed the tariff wall
That it was the party that decentralised wage fixing
That it was the party that introduced competition policy
And that the Tories sat on their bums for 11 years and reaped the rewards.
No they weren’t. They were tiny rural and regional booths that were showing 3% swings to Labor and against Liberal / National on primaries. That was a sure fire sign that the swing in more urban areas was going to be much higher.
Looking forward to seeing Dolly on Insider’s tomorrow!!
Enjoy the honey moon period folks.
There has to be some tough calls made in the immediate future.
This will test their mettle.
I await.
Thanks to William Bill Bowe for your wonderful site which kept me sane. I love you man. I really really love you man. And I am not even gay. So all the best to the ball boys the ball girls, the linesmen and women and the referee. This is a victory for the true believers!!!
Steven Kaye
I find great satisfaction in your loss.
George Lilly @ 755
thank you
Returned half way through KrRs speech from an evening with Shortis and Simpson. Canberrans amongst you will know who they are. For others, they are a comedy duo (+1) who specialize in satirising the pollies. Tonight they even had a sketch on the Overington’s slap – that’s quick work.
My highlights from the election are:
!. we won
2. el rodente lost his seat
3. the bigot Deanne Kelly lost her seat
4. the bastard Brough lost his seat.
I’m celebrating with the better half of a 5-litre cask of Berri Fresh Dry White (fairly low alcohol, can drink longer, no headache).
William, thanks so much for the entertainment.
JHIAC,
I think we all know this is better than 1993. Everyone is hoping for a better future (I am not 100% optimistic, but still hopeful). I know I am biased, but who really prefers Howard??!!
Excuse my lack of knowledge on the Senate. But does a double dissolution mean we have to have another federal election to deal with the Senate or is it just a senate election, not a House of Representatives election.
High irony that Asians will cost Howard his seat.
First there is a small matter I would like all Lefties who attacked the Australian people after the 2004 election to offer an apology for the people quite rightly rejecting Latham.
I wish to congratulate Kevin Rudd and the ALP for winning today’s Election, they out campaign the Liberals all year with a better set of policies and a clearer positive message.
Interesting night, maybe it was me but the three networks appeared to have problems with their coverage, the people in the telly room were a pain with there cheering and while I understand the ALP people loving the slight of Howard losing Bennenlong, there needed to be better crowd control, the count appears at times to very rather slow.
But it was good having three networks cover the results although in saying this the ALP guy on Channel 7 with Beattie was painful, and Michael Kroger wasn’t a happy chappy, I felt Senator Ray was quite kind to him.
Now for the results, it would appear the ALP have fallen short of my prediction of 93 seats but not by much when you consider how close the ALP came in McEwen, La Trobe, MacCarthur, Bowman, Flynn and Sturt.
All up no real surprises with the expectation of Dawson and I see Tuckey might lose to a Nat, but all up I’m a little surprised that the ALP scored 43% considering the trend of high 40s while the Liberals polled around what the polls have been reporting, I would be interested to see were that 5% went.
A Double Dissolution means BOTH houses of Parliament go to the polls and the whole Senate not just half as happens at most elections.
Eddie at 747 thereabouts:
The interest rate relationship is a cumulative relationship – statistically it *starts* to come out the third Newspoll after the rate rise, where the polls are two weeks apart. So ordinarily we’d expect it to *start* to show up next week or the week after.
I just modelled the data, using Newspoll. Newspoll seemingly was out by a few percentage points upwards on the ALP vote (until they changed their sample structure for the last poll via the regional cohort) , as a result so was the TPP forecast based on the Newspoll figures.
You might also have noticed though, that my actual seat prediction was 89, based on the fact that the big swings weren’t enough- even at 55.15 (my Newspoll model) to deliver the 94 seats that would be expected, and stated clearly from September that 89 seats was the likely result. Currently the ALP seems to have 85 in the bag with 6 undecided.Split that 3/3 and it becomes 88.
That’s 1 off.
What’s your excuse?
Very interesting night inside the National Tally Room- most exciting since 1983. Congrats to Mumble and Malcolm for a perfect prediction.
Senate simulations
Senate count still being added to, looks like GRN in WA, TAS, SA. Margins at the final cut-up in VIC and QLD are less than 0.01 of a Quota. GRN could win both. NSW very unlikely, ACT now probably impossible.
Eddie has left the building. Gone beddy byes.
Hey Y’all…
Phew.
Phew.Phew Phew…
Significant I think that in Lyons, Bass, and Denison the Greens were the only major party to receive a swing TO them. ALP was down…
But – the point of this little post is to thank William. Although I don’t pop my head up much on the Bludger, just thanks so much for facilitating a read which is one half erudite, one half rambunctious.
Friggin’ legend.
Cheers – Stu in Bass
Glenn Milne dumps on Howard for perhaps the last time:
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22815622-5012477,00.html
What about LaTrobe? Are labor still in with a chance there? Never saw it mentioned all night.
I would’ve loved to hear what Senator Ray had to say, but I couldn’t stand listening to Michael Kroger.
I mean has Kroger even conceded that Rudd is in with a chance of winning yet?
ND, you have hit the nail on the head.
William B. , thank you for a wonderful and informative site. You have bought democracy to everyones eyes and fingertips. Democracy spoke tonight and we liked what we heard.
Isn’t it funny, this morning we woke up with a Howard govt, and many feared the axis of evil would win again…
And yet tonight we are living in a new era, the old regime has been swept away, expelled to the political wilderness…
A sweet sweet victory, I bet many of here will sleep well tonight. Sweet dreams everyone! Tomorrow we awake to a new world!:)
What will be Milne’s excuse if Costello loses the next election?
Has anyone seen any sign of Tabitha and Isabella. It would be interesting to know how cocky they are feeling now.
Good to see that Glen, Steven Kaye and ESJ fronted up. Says a lot for them I think, Although I’m having trouble understanding Steven’s point regarding Labor’s primary vote. Who cares if it was “only” 43.5%. It won us the bloody election and a very handsome majority.
Too many Scotches, too many beers, fell sleep and just woke up with Late Nigh Ledends on from 1974 NRL GF (Gough was PM).
What a night.
Coalition swept from power.
Howard the lying rodent loses his seat
Who could ask for anthing more/
Well tune into Insiders 9.00 tomorrow and watch Dolly have a hissy.
To see Howard the extremist, frog marched out of power is something I wil never forget.
Never again will the extremist right attempt to enslave the working man and woman with their 19th century IR laws
WE’RE COMING BACK!!!!!!
Be afraid you tory c###s.
La Trobe
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/guide/ltro.htm
….and, oh yes- Morgan hit the nail on the head as well. Now everyone will have to put him in their trend lines.
Probably that Howard tainted his character.
Bugger, we needed 5.9. Thats taken the edge off for me!
Newspoll out tomorrow – tpp3-47 ish.
Rud PPM by shit loads to not many.
Howard to lose bennelong.
Burt coalition still preferred economic managers and of course this is absolutely vita- even more than who people are voting for.
F*ck newspoll,
f*ck Shanahan (where to from here?)
and miost of all f*ck Costello in the leadership in the future – workchpoices willbe an albatross around their neck for ages junless malcolm gets a go.
so p*ssed right now (obvious).
Have a good one all. looking forward to monay’s galaxy with oalition ahead 51-49.
LIFE IS GOOD!
My faith in the Australian people as a good and decent people is restored. I guess the people always do get it right after all.
Have to admit, that was a gracious concession speech from Howard. Love him or loathe him, he is no coward.
I wish him well in retirement and hope that he sees enough years to see Rudd prove that he too can oversee a prosperous economy.
Also, look out state Labor – you will be next on the chopping block (assuming the Libs can come up with decent alternatives).
Its going to be such a pleasure watching Costello’s dignity (whatever is left)being flayed from him slowly. The press will see him as damaged goods and roast him alive. Turnball will white ant him mercilessly when it becomes apparent that Costello’s popularity score doesn’t pick up.
In the words on Keating, “I want to do you slowly”.
Can’t see Costello taking the leadership long term. I think he’ll do a Jim Kennan (Vic State Opp Leader) and lose heart after six months or so. In fact, there may well a whole string of Lib retirements/by-elections on the offing.
seen my last poll for a while thank you.
today is 24.12 ?! Xmas come early!
Just read an article about how President Bush will give Kevin Rudd the cold shoulder. LOL! He’s gone January 2009, like Rudd gives a damn what that Texan idiot thinks. He’ll get on fine with Clinton or Guiliani, but Bush – ha! get over yourself. Your mate Howard is gone! Australia just gave you the finger.
Wonder how many by-election in the next 12 months?
A selfish old man denied his loyal colleagues and chance at renewal. That same selfish old man had achieved all that he had wanted to in his long career and yet he wanted more.
I never supported John Howard but my attitude turned to real hostility when he took my country to war on a lie, invaded a country that had not threatened us and with his foolish allies made an appalling mess of the whole thing.
Many have expressed respect for his service and sympathy for his defeat. I do not share that sentiment.
Good riddance selfish old warmionger.
The world has been watching
http://edition.cnn.com/
http://www.nytimes.com/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/
Well,thank you comrades,one and all!!!
And I send a special cheerio to my Queensland friends on this Forum,we came through,did we not!!!!!
I note I picked 85 seats and I think that’ll be it ,mind you I hope for more.LOL!!!!!
To all the Tories,everywhere,eat sh*t and die!!!!
Thx William and Possum for a great election,I never doubted the result.
Back to the piss.
Bascially Michael Kroger spent the night crapping on with comments like
“The postal will favor us”
“Considering the polls the ALP have not won by much”
he basically spun that over and over again, in defence of Possum Goldstein swung by 5% which matched the state swing,
I’m delighted the ALP won, while I would have liked Maxine to have waited until after John ‘Bruce’ Howard had spoken I couldn’t help but cheer for Maxine.
I do hope Bernie was award of Rudd making mention of him, that was very touching
801 – mate, we’ve al beeen watching.
thank god, or whatever it is u thank.
800 – fully agree, I don’t share any sentimentality over the rodent’s exit, he was an mean spirited, twisted little man, let’s not sugarcoat things.
Well that’s blair gone, now howard, bush will go next year, the world is looking up all round!:)
Possum
You predicted 89 yet it looks like labor will only win 88, how could yoi be so wrong, all your modelling all your data, the numbers with the funny squiggles, the calculations that made our eyes glaze over.
Yet everyday we faithfully logged on to look at the trends and the next set of calculations that looked like Einstein on acid, but all we wanted was that the beast was to be slayen and evey day your mystic runes showed it was to be.
But one out, one, where did you go wrong.
Look, this is lovely! Costello won’t be there at the next election – I doubt he’ll be there at Christmas!! Does anyone believe Greg Sheriden that Tony is the future??!!
Sorry,one more thing,having a father who died of mesothelioma,I thought the mention of Bernie Banton was something special as well.
Well done PM,a greatway to start!!!
kina,
no by-elections in Bennelong!
I was watching the ABC and rejoiced when those on the floor did to the Bennelong result.
I am so happy Howard is gone, ecstatic to say the least. But I am still concerned.
I wonder if a Rudd government will be better. I think we are waiting for Gillard.
Re bell weather seats – apart fom 04 when the philanderer got caught out, Parramatta still goes with the party which forms gvt.
well done J Owens – great local member and a dish to boot!
Yeah Possum. Hang your head in shame.
I know AJ, I have sinned – whip me , beat me, call me names!
No-one can answer my question at #689? Sorry if it sounds a little silly – I haven’t really taken an interest in politics until the last year or so.
The next election will over issues not yet comprehended.
But let’s enjoy the moment.
ASh 807 – its Turnbull or bust 4 the libs – a bit moderate and bucked the trend. ANyway, f*ck ‘em!
So Debus won Macquarie and has never sat on the opposition benches in his whole career.
Burgey,
lose the “a” from “weather” but, hey, we won!
Yeah. Especially when people realise he is a smug f’head who has never had an original idea.
Good nighty all.
Thanks William, thanks Poss.
Well done all – except the coalition – losers!!!!!!
get to bed everyone its very very late and we all slayed the dragon together
this is the sweetest victory of all
Give poss a go here!
I predicted 86 with a MoE of 2.
Gee, sorry.
If Wilkie can hang on then Possum has his 89 seats also I wouldn’t rule the ALP out in McEwan, MacCarthur or La Trobe
Yes its Turnbull for me too. Of course the Tories will be totally unimaginative and select Costello for the leadership, but this will be a great error on their part.
Burgey, my sentiments exactly!!
Costello is finished. Dead Man Walking. Howard could not resist one last twist of the knife.
I was watching the ABC coverage, and Cossie was just launching into the meaty part of an actually quite good, rally the somewhat routed troops type of speech (not as good as the Bomber’s were though).
Then,they cut to Rattus heading out for his concession speech in mid Costello sentence!!!!! Surely JWH knew Cossie was in the middle of his pitch to be a valid opposition leader at the time he left der Fuhrer-Bunker to capitulate???
Is the LNP machine broken to the extent that that they would allow a defeated leader to so badly poison his designated successor’s chances??
Costello’s speech would have made a difference in nowhere but Higgins, and even there they probably ignored him to listen to the great pooh bah say bye bye on the tele.
The country, AND the LNP are so much better off without Howard.
Oh dear. Looks like the Swan River is going to be packed with suicides tomorrow morning:
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/comments/0,21590,22813731-5014058,00.html
I think Wilkie will just hold on in Swan, as a incumbent his postal vote should be higher and he always comes home strong.
Just wondering, has Tony Windsor ever sat an election anywhere, where he didnt actually get a swing to him?
At the moment he’s sitting on a primary of 62, a TPP of 74.5 and a swing to him of 3%
Now there’s a political unit!
I and all your followers expect better next time Poss.
REALITY CHECK LABOR BLOGGERS
You have been in cyberspace playing 2007 election virtual reality
the Election IN REAL TIME WILL OCCUR Sunday 25/11/07
Newspoll reports ” A NARROWING” in the polls to 52 to 48
Australia’ election guru MR Shanahan says Howard leads as best economic manager
Australia’s leading political moderate Piers Ackerman predicts a cliff hanger
Howard rumoured to appoint before the election Governor General Maxine McKew
Howard to annoint POSSUM as an official “saint”
I believe they’re available now. Any particular seat you’re after.
How about the GG tipping Christopher Pyne to stand for deputy? The hubris of the man!
Holy smokes CK, and I thought us Queenslanders (although you can now call us The Deliverers!
) were parochial.
How many are still in doubt? What do you guys think will happen in these seats? Anybody want to make some calls?
AJ – I shall sacrifice a goat to the gods forthwith!
Serious now Poss and William
Thanks very mcuh for the open bloggs where our talks are posted instantly and can get fast responses.
Best of luck on your Phd William and Poss I think you should think of putting out a little book like kukelda with graphs, your wity and biting comments, especially the one about the blogger talking to himself that was an absolute crackup and selected other blogger comments as a momento.
breakfast for me at this Sunday morn at the north Cot cafe, I can’t wait to hear the distressed wailing as I quietly have my marmalade on toast..
Hey, does anyone have the URL for the AEC’s postal votes? I was in the chat room a while back and asanque posted it, but by the time I’d realised that it didn’t work in Firefox, the original post had disappeared.
And Possum, I laughed out loud at the sight of the baseball bat. That was a wonderful touch to end a great contribution to this whole campaign.
A goat???
It’s whale season….
Paul at 691
What makes you think Costello will be the next leader?
He will not want the poison chalice surely and will ensure it goes elsewhere. I think he will let Malcolm pick it up and come soaring through after he next election when the Coalition have lost again.
He will think he can beat Labor at the second election.
There has not been a one term government in recent history.
Über den Krieg ist, haben wir verloren.
Nichts wird je wieder sein.
Zu den Sieger geht, wenn die Beute, sondern lassen Sie dieses Ergebnis zu bekommen Ihren Kopf werden Sie tut mir leid. Das Land ist in der Hand und Mängel irgendwelche Probleme können nicht wieder auf uns.
Noch mindestens Julie Bishop gewonnen.
All i can say is enjoy the night to the Labor supporters i know what its like to win and lose so enjoy winning while you can make the most of it.
I’ll probably pop my head up tomorrow for a chat and to see who’ll be the new Liberal leader.
Serenity Now and if i don’t see you good afternoon good evening and goodnight.
So says Glen aka bull butter aka General Wenck.
Gary
I was going to ask Poss and Wiliam the same, some of those prefernce distributions seem weird, I thought greens should be going 80/20 but it doesn’t seem so.
I am also curiuos why Tucker in the ACT seems to have been written off with only 75% of the vote counted.
Most of the electorates seem to be 75-79% counted and I think a few may still be in play.
I have a vested interest here, I tipped 92 ( as a minimum) and want the bragging rights.
Jenny – I have to thank my better half for that one. She was bored waiting for the election coverage to start so I asked her to make me a “Howardista 5000″ baseball bat.
Cracked me up when I saw it
Colin,
I have no doubt that Costello will be the new Leader of the Opposition. However if he makes it to the next election in 2010 or whenever is entirely another matter.
Howard feels so sorry-for, and sure apologize-to Costello that he repeatedly mention Costello should lead the new opposition now that Howard is booted out from his very own electorate (So shamed and humiliated indeed.)
OK- I am back from the Hasluck party where the final results are between a 3% and 4% swing to ALP and an ALP win.
All other three seats were losses to Lib, but on the up side there was a MASSSIVE swing in Canning, which makes the west winnable if KRudd can impress for next time. 4 Lib seats within a few percent and only one ALP seat in that range.
Can I just say that todays referendum on the role of unions in the community and the apropriateness of wall to wall labor governments was an overwhelming YES.
If there are Libs that think the vote was about something else, I have 1km of polling booth bunting authorised by your party that agrees with me- thanks for the mandate!
Yeah Cocks in LaTrobe was on 49.8 TPP with 74% contented, one booth not counted. On the Green preferences It looked good, but Ant Green predicted that The Libs would hold it.
Vani viini vichi- or something like that!!
I got burnt, tired, drunk, blisters but it was all worth it.
841 Colin
Disagree. The next term is a good one to try to win. Whitlam lost. Hawke and Howard has narrow wins at their second go.
With no Coalition party in government anything that goes wrong will be considered to be Labor’s fault.
I do believe that Australia is trending more toward Labor in the longer term at the moment (eg kept a disliked NSW state government, but got rid of a PM with a 51% approval), but the public will still always be ruthless in their voting.
Auf wiedersehen, General Wenck. Schlafen Sie wohl.
djamak ,
Go to:
http://orgburo.com/elections/boothbybooth.php?select=Adelaide
Which is the booth results for Adelaide. Click on which ever seat you are interested in at the top left and it will take you to the booth results you are after.
Kevin 07 done and dusted, bring on Kevin 11
Who is going to hold the balance in the senate?
Thank you William Bowe for the opportunity to participate (if only passively) in your exceptional site.
Regards, also, to those psephologists who 1) believe in evidence based psephology and 2) use sensible models and 3) got it pretty right and 4) kept out faith in rationality alive:
- Adam Carr
- Simon Jackman
- William Bowe
- Malcolm Mackerras
- Bryan Palmer
- Possum Commitatus
- Peter Brent
Congratulations to all the others who also got it right.
Gary
You do 80/20 in La Trobe and labor is ahead.
Possum – well, pass on my thanks to your better half – it was a great touch.
Anyone know that damn URL for the postal votes?
And did anyone notice that Rudd only mentioned working families once in his victory speech, but rabbitted on about the nation about a zillion times?
Turnbull ran ads in the newspapers saying Newhouse was inelligble to stand. That is likely to have cost him some votes. I would imagine that action was illegal and may give grounds for Newhouse to ask the AEC to investigate. He would be entitled to a by-election.
Maybe..who knows the law?
The Senate is going to be really, really difficult. It looks as if the revolting Steve Fielding will have the balance of power.
happy happy joy joy happy happy happy joy!
Has Gerard Henderson made his prediction yet?
kina, I so hope that they challenge turnbull in the courts over that.
he so deserves it.
Yeah Arbie Jay I know, but Labor isnt ahead. I dont trust the Greens. They do preference deals that we deliver on, but are they manning all the booths all the time? I reckon Labor are getting shafted. We should have done far better off Green preferences in Latrobe.
Kina,
Labor is not going to force the people of Wentworth into a By Election. They would probably just punish Labor for it anyway.
Glen
I thank you for your input, as others have said you have been great, A conversation about politics cannot continue if it is all in agreement.
I like most others here dont agree with your comments but they are generally thoughtful and persistent.
I have enjoyed reading what you have written,
If Steve Fielding hold power then we can expect no serious social changes
Gay unions and the like?
hey dont forget me!
I predicted 53.5 2pp, 83 seats and Paterson was my last over the line and bob the bastard won it with a few hundred votes by spending 1.5 million
moral victory yes!
Oh Yeah Happy Cow
And a lot of kudos to William and Possum, who remained unbiased throughout, yet provided their sites for the exchange of ideas and opinions.
It would be worth Labor’s while to get rid of Turnbull..and I believe Newhouse wouldn’t have to be the candidate. Tactically it may be useful for Labor if they can find a notable candidate.
Glen, you lost
]
(insert childish repetitive laughter and finger pointing here)
Kina no chance Labor will challenge! Politically it would be a disaster and the voters would only vote Turnbull back in with an even bigger majority.
Kina,
You’re dreaming.
Adz, that scares me. I just hope they can have a conscience vote in the senate over gay law reform and Im fairly sure if they did there would be a majority
Failing that, a double dissolution, please
840
scaper… Says:
A goat???
It’s whale season….
Nah, rodent season.
868
happy cow Says:
I predicted 53.5 2pp, 83 seats…
Me too. I am very happy to be wrong.
I predicted the biggest swings would be in Macarthur and Ryan iirc, I was obviously wrong about Ryan but I was sop on with Macarthur. I was telling people to bet on the ALP taking it. Lucky nobody listened to me because it looks like the Libs just held on.
gary if that is the case then there is no harm done. its the principle that counts. we dont want high flying lawyers to get away with breaking the law in the future.
/me pokes possum for fun!
You wouldn’t bother unless you knew you had some sort of chance. But that is assuming the AEC would think it illegal.
Where is LTEP by the way?
No I dont want Turnbull to get away with it either, but the fact is that challenged results normally result in the candidate being challenged winning by an even bigger margin in the re-run.
Gary
I don’t know how the preferences are being done on the ABC computers, whether it is actual or an allocation.
I thought that the greens had agreed to go with labor, but when it comes down to it it depends on whether people follow the how to vote card or decide themselves.
Family First went with the liberals, but I don’t know whether tis automatically means that all their preferences go to the libs.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=F54rqDh2mWA
Paul K #832: I’m after the results for each of the polling stations within my electorate. Do you know how long it takes the AEC to put them up on their site?
I’m in the electorate of Flynn. I was pleasantly surprised to hear of Labor candidate Chris Trevor’s success up here. Now I’m curious to learn how Mr Trevor performed in places like Gayndah, Biloela, Barcaldine etc.
Hey, the Oz result is on the front page of the Guardian! http://www.guardian.co.uk/
867 Adz – That’s a good question.
If the Rudd government were to introduce civil union legislation, and allow MPs to vote on confidence, its possible that there are Liberal senators who would cross the floor.
There’s plenty of stuff for Rudd to get on with before coming to the issue of gay rights, though – and stuff that’s on politically safer ground. Labor don’t want to start off a term in government by scaring the social conversatives.
oh the humanity! hehe
yes of course hugorune he has more major issues to work through anyhow but Ijust would love to know how he is eventually going to get it past family first without having to get some liberals to cross the floor.
Gary and happy cow, I can’t think of something that would be a better start for Labor losing the next election than to challenge Wentworth.
Arbie Jay. Its hard to fathom many Greens supporters giving a second preference to a Tory, so I thought maybe the Green’s coverage of the booths may not have been too flash. You know maybe they werent handing HTV cards out to begin with in some booths.
djamak
I think this is what you are after:
http://orgburo.com/elections/boothbybooth.php?select=Flynn
hey jenny!
Oh, Glen, it’s not that bad. It’s only the government of the country changing, after all.
Hey Just me…. that was so yesterday.
Thanks for that Paul K!
Hey, Happy Cow. I shd have gone to bed hours ago, but then I started looking at tomorrow’s ‘papers’.
wpc, I agree with you it would be a disaster, thats what I was arguing.
897 Sorry Gary, I wrote the wrong person in.
Thats OK wpc.
Of all of the people in all of the world – tonight – Glen is my champion.
wpc @850
I beg to differ, Whitlam won the election in 1974 irrespective of the world circumstances,
Historically, there have been a number of first term leaders of the opposition who have sunk to obscurity. I cannot see Costello being another Beasley, he should let Turnbull take the leadership now. If he allows himself to follow the succession plan he is stuffed and he knows it.
Costello has two choice. He can take the leadership now, or he can get out of parliament. He will not be allowed to stand back, let Turnbull take the heat for the next loss and then step in. Even if he was, who is say the Tories will not fall even further behind after the next poll? For Costello there is only one shot in the locker-2010.
Paul K
That’s my point, I don’t think he will want to from opposition,
901 Colin. Well I did get the impression from Costello tonight that he knows he may have missed his time.
Gary is correct, the next one is Costello’s last chance.
Gary
The libs will start to eat themselves.
Turnball can be subject to a legal challenge beacuse of the ads he placed, telling people the labor canidate may not be entitled to stand.
Costello does not want the job, never had the guts for it, he will probably get out, he is totally unelectable and Rudd would wipe him, take out Costello and Turnball and who do they have next.
I’m so pretty; you’re so pretty!! We’re pretty vaaaaa-cant!!
Colin,
Costello has been working for a shot at PM all his adult life. Who knows what he is willing to endure to get there. For now the Opposition Leader job is his. What he decides after that is anyone’s guess. He’s still young enough to wait another decade if need be. People like Costello and Turnbull are not only ambitious to get where they are, they are also self disciplined. If he wants it bad enough he’ll stay, if not he’ll go.
wpc @904
Exactly right, He cannot accept the leadership now.
His time may come later but not in this Parliament. If he does it now he has the proverbials.
Anyone know if that nit Pyne has survived?
I partyed with tears of joy @ Suncorp tonight watching Kevin claiming victory & watching history being made.
Pyne is expected to hang on.
Does anyone really think that after being ministers for 11 years that
Abbott, Costello and Downer are going to hang around in opposition!!!!
Forget Costello guys. He piked it 18 months ago and left the party to face defeat because of Rattus’s selfishness. He has repeatedly taken the position that the leadership must be given to him, he will not fight for it. No guts, less glory, he is finished.
It was worth waiting for, that’s for sure. It’s just a relief to be rid of Howard and his whole scurvy crew.
Since it’s all backslapping and the like…. let me tell you where I come from.
Due to the lack of vision, I have taken upon myself to embark on the burden myself.
Hey, do you expect the magic waive of the wand?
It ain’t going to happen folks.
We have forgotten that these representatives work for us….. yes us!
The sooner this is acknowledged, then we can get on with the job in hand.
I see so much talent here and I think if this was harnessed, then maybe the blogosphere will be the forum of the people.
Banish the thought…
Paul k: Pity. He really got-up my nose. At least his seat will be some desperate marginal next time.
They have the Jolly Green Giant, they have She of the Scarey Eyes, they have the Mad Monk, they have the The Former ALP Member, they have the Prince of Darkness. And Dolly how could I forget him? Not a great choice is it? Personally I would go for Bishop. They wont though.
Just added my opinion on Howard to the BBC website…..feel much better.
912 I could see all of them staying on.
Does anyone expect whether at the next state elections there will be a reverse swing to tonight? Or is Labor now tribally strong enough to hold them as well?
What about the idea of Mal Brough as new QLD state Liberal leader?
SENATE
At this stage , after 1/7/08 it look like
Liberal/NP 38
Labor/Greens/Democrats 38
Mr X (S.A.) 1
Family first 1
The last 2 TOGETHER can pass Bills and either one can defeat them
Alot of power to these 2
NOTE/
Family First is a clever vote catching name- got 1.95% primary vote !!!
they are well funded thr churchs
their enate votes to now can be disregarded as the Coalition had the balance of power so their Senate voting to date was ‘tokenism’
NOW we will find out what they stand for
but Labor should get across to the public it preferenced the Liberals
in EVERY one of the 150 seats
(Labor does not want another DLP)
As for leadership of the Liberals, who’d want the job now? Costello? No-way. Too much hard work. Abbott? Not after Bernie Banton. Downer? He’s been there and failed at that. Perhaps one of the surviving women.
Does this means the inmates at the ABC could soon be freed?
Didn’t Family First say they wanted to get rid of workchoices?
If Costello devoted his whole life to getting the leaderrship, he didnt fight very hard to get it. The leadership was there to be picked up after APEC, but he piked it. No ticker thats the problem with him. Trust me, one way or the other he will be gone in a year or so’s time.
kina: You bet. Albrecthsen, Windschuttle and the rest of Howard’s culture-warriors will be purged, I reckon. What does Rudd owe them? He’s already spoken of the Razor Gang he proposes to set-up.
920 – Your maths doesn’t add up.
The Coalition are on 37, not 38.
Likewise, Labor + Greens have 37 between them, not 38. The Democrats are now out of the Senate (or will be mid next year).
You’re right that Xenophon and Fielding have a lot of power now. However, various Coalition senators could mute that, by opting to cross the floor themselves on key pieces of legislation.
At the risk of it being all too obvious after the race has been run, Possum calculated the main problems for the co-alition: interest rate rises and WorkChoices. You can argue that interest rates are beyond the government’s control, but that’s not what they argued in 2004!
Workchoices was far too ideoligiocal. No matter what your point of view, this is where the Libs lost it.
scrapr@915
Agree whole heartedly
Gary: I reckon Costello could see this disaster coming.
Hell, given the polls, Blind Freddie could see something awful was on the way. So why would he have wanted to topple Howard and give the old Rodent a perfect excuse. I fiure he just thought: “F**k it, I’m gonna make him hang around and face the music.”
The real question is does he want the leadership now. I agree that it’s his last chance.
Hey William. My 24 yo son put me on to this site about 6 weeks ago. He knows I’ve been passionate about politics since 1970, when my number came up to be conscripted into the Army and head off to Vietnam (even though I wasn’t old enough to vote).
I only every dreamed of having access to a wealth of various ideas, thoughts, knowledge and a bit of humour as I have on your window to the political world.
Younger contributors probably don’t understand that it wasn’t until Monday or possibly Tuesday that the broadsheeets might post anything like final numbers, and polls were very rudimentry in the least.
So thank you Sincerely for this opportunity, Kind Regards, Not So Mad Max.
P.S. When the site went down a couple of times recently, I got a little notation at the bottom of my screen which I can only think is /was an IP address for your site, and guess what —reading from right to left it read 88-60-?02. Spooky huh??
It’s very late: let me articulate the thoughts of many: John Hunt is a Coward!!!!!
“Costello has been working for a shot at PM all his adult life. Who knows what he is willing to endure to get there…”
Oh give me a break! Tip’s prepared to endure absolutely nothing.
They might as well put Keating in for all the good it would do.
CK:
I wonder how The West will cope with a new PM ? :_)
After November losses in 1925, 1928, 1958, 1963, 1966 and 2001 this is Labor’s first ever November win. There have been no elections in January, February or June, so now Labor have won in every other month. People may think this is minutiae but I am sure there would have been people in the Liberal strategy group urging a November poll for this reason (among others).
But at least PK had, you know, ticker. Costello is the Wizard of Oz politics.
Best moment in the election for me as an old lady (about 80), heading slowly up the hill with a walking frame in hand. The real kicker was her Kevin07 tee shirt and the fact that everyone she passed was wishing her good luck.
Hey everyone. What a relief and thrill. Confidence in Australians restored.
Why are people assuming that Pyne has got back? According to the AEC he leads by just .05%. By my calculations thats about 70 votes. OK sitting members do better from postals etc, but Mia Handshin has high name recognition so it may not follow this time.
#937 – oh yes!
Rocket
Sounds right that they would trust some mysticism rather than the people.
# 926 Hugorune re Senate after 1/7/08:
Yes its late and I said a senate of 78 instead of 76
but my conclusion is correct , ie. Coalition vs ALP/Greens have equal senators
THEREFORE Mr x and Family First collectively have the balance of power
IF they both vote with Labor/greens , then bills pass
IF EITHER votes with Coalition , then bills get defeated
I would not be counting on Coalition Senators to often cross the floor
Labor’s biggest challenge may come from the Greens in putting amendments to ‘green’ legislation like emission targets , carbon trading etc. where the greens do not back down
Fading out now we are.
I’ve got just about all the players at the table.
That is the name of the game.
A tall order???
Arbie Jay – I believe these things are taken into account.
It’s like Labor won in March 1983, then when in trouble called elections in March 1990 & March 1993 – the hat-trick (March 1996) didn’t come off. It’s also why the Coalition will never call a winter election (August 1943 and July 1987)
He normally gets a high percentage of postals.
What a huge night!
Messages going out, here comes the love fropm Lefty E
To Andrew: *Snort* *giggle*… bookie and Lola say cheers for a big night
To LTEP: Yes, Im sure it will get closer with postals.
To Nostradamus: Predict this: nnlnn
To Glen: actually, you’re a pretty good sport, for all your autopropaganda.
To Stephen K: Good luck with that CV, and say hi to Campbell
TO Howard: Gracious concession speech, enjoy your retirement. I know I will.
TO Rudd: Congrats, nice work. You managed to bore me in under 3 mins, but wtf, huzzah anyway.
To the GG Galaxy and Newspoll: Hey, listen here … no – come closer…: F*CK YOU LOSERS. I hereby Christen you PP (Pollfraud Press)
TO William and Pollbludgers: thanks for being there! Respect.
words……………………………..
thanks all. William.
Frank Calabrese @ 933 says:
“I wonder how The West will cope with a new PM ? :_)”
Much like Tony Abbot I imagine Frank. Complete brainsnap.
But if you pop over to the Sunday Times blog (sorry, can’t copy/paste link. Remote mouse doing bizarre things), I think there’s been a run on razor-blades tonight.
I suspect a few trolls over in JulieBishopLand are a bit bitter and twisted. Whatever will they do with her now? Minister of Nothing. Federal Opposition Leader of Nothing. State Opposition Leader of Nothing.
So, to sum up – nothing really.
At last the real reason why Howard lost.
Baume’s theory is that Howard has worked himself out of a job. The aspirationals who voted for him in 1996 and remained loyal through four elections “have achieved the great bulk of what they aspired to,” he said.
But then they wanted more, And “if you don’t get three cars in your garage rather than two, you’re p…ed off with someone”.
Dame Leonie Kramer agreed. “Once you start aspiring you never stop,” she said.
Night all
CK:
Yep, read some of the comments – bet poor old Simon Beaumont will be shattered on Monday, as will Tony Mac. and Howard Sattler will be inconsolable. – pity it’s the start of non ratings period
For Howardhuggers in the meeja – no sympathy.
Arbie Jay – I reckon that encapsulates the Libs’ failure to comprehend the issues. People aren’t idiots, as was obvious in the voting in Lindsay. At a really fundamental level, they know that the three-car lifestyle just doesn’t stack up.
It’s the one thing I like about Turnbull – must be the only senior Lib without a driver’s licence.
What’s this I seem to have heard?
Howard has actually lost his seat???
Costello cannot win an election or lead a party. He is damaged goods and his style against Rudd’s will lose each time in public sentiment.
Turnbull is probably their only decent prospect at the moment but I don’t believe he has the style to win an election either.
The Libs are going to need to do some searching for a viable leader for the next election – I can’t see one there yet. But who will survive the blood letting – can’t wait for it to begin.
Yep, note carefully the words “Previous Member” next to J.W.Howard
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-13745-105.htm
Must be hearing things.
Never before have I been so glad to have been wrong.
Today, Australia has rejected, comprehensively, the petty, mean-spirited, blinkered and backward-looking views of the Liberal Party of Australia. They have chosen to embrace the future, to embrace unity and to move forward as a nation.
I am proud to be an Australian this day.
Cannot get over the result. Scrutineered at big Dawson booth. There was a swing of nearly 20% IN THE BOOTH. CAN YOU CREDIT THAT. DISHONEST, BIGOTTED BITCH.
Costello’s concession speech
“My house may have burnt down, but it’s OK.
I managed to save this shit sandwich. “
Just woke up, discovered that I did not just dream it, we have our country back again YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY
heaven
Oh joyous day!
Never have I been so proud to be Australian.
Sweet, sweet democracy!!!!!
What a fantastic speech from Kevin Rudd. Prime Minister Rudd!
You little rippa!
Oh what a beautiful morning! RIP Howard.
On Senate, Mr X is anti-workers, but also an opportunist sleeze bag, so he will bend with the wind, he is a media sl… Here’s hoping the Green vote will render him meaningless.
The Mayor of Brisbane is the nations highest ranked Conservative polititian!!!!! Rodentus in exterminus!!!!
Free at last. Free at last.
Well done to Morgan for being the closest pollster.
Democracy is the strongest drug there is. I just woke up in a new country and never even left Australia. This is my country, this is the new Australia, this is the future. Kyoto signed, Iraq pullout, Workchoices gone, Howard humiliated. Can it get any better than this… WOW! WOW! WOW!
Morgan has a pro labor bias. if you take this into account alp loses election…ha ha ha LOL
So Morgan did end up closest?
This election was redemption for more than just the ALP….
Morning all, beautiful day in the new world.
I agree its great to see Australian voters noted something about the quality of their candidates as well as the overal swing. Those making some of the most obviously racist and sexist attacks saw some of the biggest swings in losing.
My thoughts:
Best wins: Rudd (a great campaign), Gillard (another great campaign and first female Deputy PM), McKew (someone who had a career to lose put it on the lien for the greater good; a historic win), James Bidgood (Dawson), David Bradbury (Lindsey and team who caught the racists on film)
Most deserving losers: Howard, Chijoff, Dee-Anne Kelly and Leichardt Liberals, Gary Nairn, Overington and the other right wing hacks, the Exclusive Brethren, Hillsong and the fundys who now have no more pet cabinet ministers
Least deserving losers: Mia Handshin, Mal Brough, Andrew Bartlett
Here in Sturt I think Mia won’t get up but what a great campaign. She must try again, and maybe be given a seat with a smaller margin.
I said a few days ago that it was all over bar the bitter recriminations, and they should be fun over coming weeks. Not to mention various desperate people who have probably committed crimes over the past few months and will now face an AFP free to do their job. That should put a chill through a few.
WE CRUSHED THE LIBS THIS TIME!!!! GREAT!!!!!!!!!!
Interest rates are about to rise, China has cancelled all orders, mineral boom finished, economy destroyed, union bosses in charge, wages are up, inflation is up, julia gillard julia gillard julia gillard julia gillard julia gillard julia gillard julia gillard julia gillard julia gillard julia gillard julia gillard boooooooooooooooooo
2PP this morning is 53.41/46.59
So Morgan were exquisitely close with their 53.5/46.5.
Whats the senate looking like this morning?
More quality reporting from the MSM:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/rudd-triumphs-as-howard-cast-aside/2007/11/24/1195753380642.html
The national two-party preferred swing to Labor of 6.3per cent was the second-largest since World War II, bettered only by Gough Whitlam in 1975.”
Oh yes – who amongst us can forget Gough Whitlam’s stunning victory of 1975?
Haven’t read all the pages of this thread so apologies if all this has already been said before, but:
- from the experience of the last two Victorian elections (both held at this time of year), the demographics of postal/prepoll voters will be very different to usual because it’s uni holidays (and schoolies) but not general school holidays. In the Victorian elections Labor has done better than usual on postals, and the Greens particularly well, and I’d expect the same to happen here.
- if the booth I scrutineered in (in Jagajaga) was remotely representative (I haven’t had time to look at detailed numbers from elsewhere), the flow of Green preferences to Labor was extraordinary (94% in my booth, compared with the 70-80 we’re used to seeing).
- the Greens Senate vote will also probably creep up because a disproportionate number of their voters vote below-the-line and BTL votes (as far as I know) haven’t been counted yet.
Onya Australia, you’ve done us proud!
What a night, what a glorious moment to savour, to see that trash taken out and the broom put right through what had become such a dirty and disorganised rabble.
And to all those on this blog, many thanks, you’ve kept this little brown duck well and truly sane and brilliantly entertained. Your collective wit and good spirits is something to behold.
Now, the truck’s warmed up, so off to pick up one dead Rodent and Mrs Rodent, and then cart them off the public stage, where they have well and truly outstayed their welcome.
Onya Kevin Rudd, and keep the faith of all of us who put you there, keep it safe in the years to come.
Costello looked like a new man reborn last night. Just saw a clip on Sky of part of what he had to say last night and he looked like a different person. If that is a reflection of how much Howard has been his albatross over all these years, Costello is privately probably glad he is gone. Don’t know if Costello will stay around BUT he did promise during the campaign that he would. Does Costello keep his promises? We’ll see ….
971, you obviously saw Clarke and Dawe on Thursday, had to be one of their best yet did it not?
Time to also record my sincere appreciation to William Bowe, Possum, Simon and Anthony for all the enjoyment and erudition they have given, but esp William.
I forgot to mention the bookies, I will also appreciate their contribution to my chancellor of the exchequer.
Very impressed by Mal Brough concession last night, he could not have expected that result, but behaved like a man. I am still blown away by all the crazy swings in Qld, whoda thunk it. On a sad note we did not get rid of the piece of useless excess baggage here in McPherson, mind you we needed 14%, a big ask. She can wait till next time, it will be good to see her vacuous face on the opposition benches anyway.
And now the fun begins, Costello, Turnbull, Bishop (now there is another vacuous piece of work), Admiral Nelson, omg, such a bewildering array to choose from. Meanwhile Kev and Julia now can get on with the job for which they are both so qualified, OH THE JOY.
Does anyone have a link to a video of Clarke and Dawe on Thursday? I missed it.
I would just like to apologise for my rather intemperate and vindictive post at 1.21am this morning (#787). I rather think it was the copious amounts of Scotch and half dozen beers I had consumed.
I dont believe the Unions are coming back, and I haven’t been a Unionist for decades (although I do work for a membership organisation with 115,000 members, where my co-workers dont find it very funny when I DO refer to us as a Union
). Prime Minister Rudd (oh that sounds good), will keep his promise to work with Australians of all persuasion ad the Unions are only a small part of the overall picture.
One thing I will not apologise for is my attack on the insidious, hatefilled, ideological attack on Australians through the Tories unauthorised and unheralded Workchoices crime. This legistlation, this vindictive, arrogant, extremist legistlation attacked not only current and future generations, but the memory of working Australians who fought and suffered for our basic working conditions.
Bob Hawke is deadset correct that every man and woman in the workforce owes the Union movement a debt for Annual Leave, Sick Leave, LSL, a five day working week, redundancy pay, and other. The basic rights of a decent country that respects and honours its citizens. These right wing extremists and ideologues wanted to strip us of our basic rights and our history.
Well Australians have spoken. Most Australians dont “hate” Unions like Jackie Kelly’s stupid husband. Australians see a Bernie Banton and what the Union movement and Bill Shorten did for him and his cause. That is decency, and that is right.
A couple of thank you’s.
1) Mark Latham.- Just over three years ago I sat watching Howard making his customary gloating victory speech after Latham had gone off the rails. I was mortified. The Labor party was going to be out of power for at least 6 years. What was worse was that the Tories had control of the senate. An unmittigated disaster.
Well hows that for irony. Through Mark Latham and his performance we got the conditions where the arrogant, born to rule, hubris laden government could finally drop their sheeps clothing and inflict on Australian working men and woman the hated Workchoices.
2) John Howard – Mr Howard, you have always been at the forefront of the NSW right uglies. You hounded the wets out of your party in the late 80’s and early 90’s, you attacked the weak in our society, you dog whistled and appealed to the basest of the electorates fears and prejudices and used these prejudices to wedge and divide the nation, you made our country bigoted, xenophobic, insular, and inward looking. And you did all this with the smug reassurance of a man who thinks he is so clever that the people will be fooled forever.
You allowed hubris and your insane extremist right wing views to allow you to believe that you had a mandate to attack the very people that elected you in the first place, the so called “Howard Battlers”. How a politician could be so arrogant to believe that they could get away with this is astounding.
Well Mr Howard your enduring legacy will not be the destructiion of the labour movement. Your legacy will be swept away by the new Labor Govt. Your legacy is now your epithaph.
You will have no victory lap, you will not be known in history as Menzies lite, you will be remembered for plunging our country into fear and for that crime being thrown out of not just office, but parliment alltogether.
I will not thank K-Rudd, Julia Gillard or my local member Nicola Roxon. Your work is in front of you. Time to walk the walk.
A final thank you to William Bowe for this tremendous site, and to all the other bludgers (especially the Keating lovers
) who has made me feel I am in a room full of fellow true believers.
The sun is up – its a new dawn, a new day, and Australia is once again back on an even keel.
End of rant
Julie 977 I have never seen Costello more upbeat. He must really hate the rodent and he celebrated with Maxine…
G’day VB, looks like your mate was right then? Alan Ramsey in yesterday’s SMH, told of the 300 bins under the Ministerial offices in Canberra!
Did you hear the collective sigh of relief that swelled across this big wide land last night?
And then the cheer for the newly chosen son?
It was indeed like Whitlam’s election, although I’m wondering how long it will be before there is talk of the new coalition: Labor and Green, because it could not have happened otherwise.
By the way, thanks for all your reportage from the Lib bunker, it made great reading.
Socrates:
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/clarkedawe.htm
Back to bed. Brain still addled.
Thank you William for this superlative site.
‘my fellow Queenslanders’ delivered a coup de grace to the government. Remarkable.
Closing this thread, so please take it over here.