Out of bed now, so I’m a bit late with the news that Morgan has completed a hat-trick of polls that have produced their closest result for the year just in time for polling day. Conducted last night, it has Labor ahead 53.5-46.5, their primary vote at 43.5 per cent (the lowest since January) and the Coalition’s at 41.5 per cent (highest since last November). The odd pollster out, ACNielsen, conducted its poll much earlier in the week.
In administrative news, I just did cleared out a huge volume of comments from moderation, so apologies to those who were held up there. Most of you were first timers – you should be able to comment freely now. I’m off to perform my civic duty, and will have a think about how to handle the election night traffic on my return. I’m much preferring IRC to Meebo (see “Dress Rehearsal 3″ post below) and beginning to think that alone should be enough to divert enough blog comment traffic to prevent my server from melting down.
595 Comments
Take the usual 2 % off morgan and you get a coalition win.
take out the usual liberal trolling comments, and you actually have an intelligent comment.
Just heard on the news. The Liberals are claiming a major irregularity in Corgangamite, and are saying the election in that seat is invalid.
Apparently the sitting Liberal member Stewat Macarthur died six months ago, but no one could tell the difference until today.
haha.
“Take the usual 2 % off morgan and you get a coalition win”
This is because in Liberal maths, 51.5 is less than 50.
53.5 would be fine at 6pm WA time, though by the look of the Newspoll state breakdowns mine has become the redneck state. Honestly, everyone ‘over east’ we’re not all materialistic miners in this western third of the country. A 0.6% swing to the government does make us look bad though. And obviously that means coughing up at least one seat… go Queensland, you good thing.
Stunning late Spring day in Melbourne. Clear blue skies give rise to a spirit of optimism and a greater inclination to bring on change.
My intelligent prediction Pi is that you lot are going to be very disappointed!
The World is watching now.
CNN: Bush ally fights for survival in Aussie vote.
http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/asiapcf/11/23/australia.election/
Anything to make George Bush sad is a sweet thing.
Come on Ruddiger!
Morgan has beens lightly higher than the others all year, so I think this confirms Newspoll and Galaxy.
This will be very, very close.
Chijoff goes with the “Sergeabt Scultz” defence. Hands up if you believe her.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/24/2100097.htm
Spiros,
That’s because the Libs own the Polls.
LOL Spiros -you had me going for a moment there!
Just came back from handing out HTV’s and doing my civic duty -the atmosphere seemed much calmer than at previous elections and it was hard to detect a trend. But then again I’m in a safe Liberal seat so perhaps it wasn’t as evident as in the key marginals
Voted in Selby at the School Hall at 9.15.
Isn’t it funny how your eyes run along the line of waiting voters at hip-height, carefully examining which how-to-vote leaflets are at the top of their pile. I saw mostly Labor, and a solitary green, but that is not surprising – Selby is a Labor-leaning booth.
I sense that Labor will fall short in La Trobe, based on gut-feeling and the polls of the last two days, dark clouds on a refulgent day.
My advice for Labor for the next election – have a different set of ads for the last two advertising days of the campaign. Throw something new at people, a message appropriate to the final stage of the campaign. I thought the message was stale by the last week – it needed something fresh and reactive.
#3 Where on earth is Corgangamite ? Some place where they grow dwarf zucchinis perhaps? And what sort of a name is Stewat?
Hell, my geography must be shot to pieces. I’m off to do my bit to stave off illiteracy and unemployment.
Just heard that SA exit polls are showing 11.5% swing to ALP.
Does this sound likely? That would ALP 4 extra seats in SA yes?
Gee, some people are slow learners.
If the Labor Party gets 52%, as predicted by Galaxy and Newspoll, they will win easily. Every party that has ever got 52% in Australian electoral history has always won easily. You don’t like history? Look at the state breakdowns of Newspoll. They show Labor winning 83 seats. Queensland in particular will be a killing field.
Of course, 52% is the minimum of the poll range. If the vote gets up near Morgan, let alone ACN, it will be a wipeout.
Just voted and to my surprise I voted greens then alp.
Was always going to give Andrew Bartlett number in the Senate but then struggled with who to put last – Pauline Hanson’s mob or the Shooters Party.
Always intend being rude to the Lib how to vote card people but then when it happens I can never be bothered.
“Just heard that SA exit polls are showing 11.5% swing to ALP. ”
Good news – what is the source?
Yo Ho Ho is having a laugh.
Got the message from my YRAW organiser.
Obviously, the viewpoint of unions can be considered to have a degree of bias, hence i brought it here for someone to hopefully confirm….
So yeah, i guess i’m saying grain of salt and all that.
Yo, if you’d said 8%, you might have fooled a few more people.
11.5% would be pretty close to the ACNielsen poll. If we were to say that the others were outliers… or there has been a developing backlash from the Lindsay pamphlet scandal… then I could believe it. But I don’t dare hope.
Yep yep lots of salt – four hours til the count starts – so not much longer running on rumors
Just about to head up the road to the National Tallyroom.
The Galaxy, Newspoll and even the Morgan polls have sown a lot of angst among we predictors of a big ALP win. The projections still show about a 54.8% TPP and a seat range in the 85-95 area…. but see this morning’s Lazrus cartoon to make your knees go wobbly. The polls certainly seem to be picking up something stirring, but perhaps it’s just rolling over in bed. If the voters really have changed their intentions by 3 or 4 percentage points in as many days, it will have been the greatest such shift ever seen. Either that or the voters have been having a lend of the pollsters all along. I suggested to Possum last week that we need a new regression paramter to model trend- “dramatic unexpected disaster factor”. Perhaps a underdog coefficient?
Another poll, another ALP win, which of course is being reflected on the ground today.
The lib supporters on here might try and talk up their odds, but let’s face it, the odds are firml against them, and hanging all their hopes on a questionable newspoll and galaxy poll which still had them losing anyway really is a case of reaching.
Bring on the result!
Let’s face the facts.
52-48, if it is to be believed, is still a Labor win.
57-43 is closer to the Reuters average of the trend of all the polls, which is 55-45.
On the 52-48 polls, I refuse to believe two things
- That in the Newspoll the Labor vote fell by 5 per cent in WA in just 4 days.
- That in Galaxy Labor only got 42% primary vote.
My surprise predictions: Boothy, Bennelong Labor gains. N.Sydney and Higgins in strife. Wentworth 50/50.
I worked a poll booth for the ALP today, giving how to votes. I’m in the ACT and the only ‘feeling’ I got is that a lot of people will vote Greens or vote below the line, preferencing the Greens, to help Tucker get past Humphries here.
I still don’t think the Greens will get the second senate spot, but I hope so.
Be optimistic, friends. Labor WILL win.
Ozymandias @ 6
Correct me if I am wrong but I am imagining it may partly be the aspirational easterners who move over to WA purely for the economic prospects which may be tipping the balance toward the Liberals?
I am imagining that the ordinary people of Perth and it’s surrounds who work the same jobs and live the same types of lives that people do in the Eastern states would divide roughly along the same political lines as people do in the east.
Greeensborough Growler @ 11,
Lindsay will fall to Labor anyway. That’s for sure.
Just hope that Howard’s dirty racist trick spills over to a wider communities.
” just heard from a YR@W person. Exit polls show 12% in Qld and 8 in NSW”
That lends some weight to the 11.5% reported above for SA.
Do not believe exit polls. They are the ultimate in unscientific dodginess.
Yes Ricky, Labor will win…but its highly amusing how nasty some of your little comrades can get when things tighten up a bit – cf Pi. Of course, this morning’s hysterical headlines will probably help the ALP just in the way a similar phenomenon help Clinton in 1992 – they will energise the “time for change” vote.
Albert @18, if that exit poll is true, does it really surprise you? There will be carnage in SA tonight, its been on the cards for months, I won’t be at all surprised if Downer and Secker are the only Liberal MHRs returning to Canberra.
And talking of upsets, here my three nominations:
(1) we will lose Forde to the Nationals
(2) we will lose Forrest to an Independent
(3) Corio to go down to the wire, although I lack the guts to suggest an ALP loss
Spiros @29
Can you explain why (slowly, i’m not particularly poll-nous)?
It doesnt matter what happens in WA, I firmly beleive that the elections will have been done and dusted before their votes has commenced being counted. Of course, the media will try to make it exciting and show unexpected early counting figures massively overstating the prediciton one way or the other in individual seats….history shows that although the amopunt of swing varies between states the trend to or away from the governing party is pretty much uniform federally at every election. WA has always been abberant, and theres are only 10 seats at stake. It doesnt take much for them to not figure in the final needed tally. I expect we will know early who is to be the next government.
Spiros@29
Oh, i assumed exit polls would be more accurate then pre-polling….
Don’t forget that John Kerry supporters got the cruellest blow in 2004 from exit polls that turned out to be utterly wrong.
Just go back from my first shift of HTV. Interesting, the Democrat candidate is definitely a Liberal man. Him and the Liberal staffer were talking about things and he was falling for Liberal party propaganda.
Over the skys of Melbourne was a plane writing “Kev 4 PM”
A lot of younger people went for the Greens HTV, or Greens and ALP. The young ones who came with their Liberal voting parents, took no HTV or went just took the Liberal HTV.
Mostly people took all, or none, and I dare say in my 2 hours, more people took left leaning HTVs over Liberal / Family First.
As I said earlier, the polls are actually quite consistent with each other if you do your own preference weighting and take account of sample size correctly.
If you allocate preferences as 75% green to ALP and 50% other. This gives the following table (with sample size as 2nd column):
ALP n Poll
53.75 2615 Newspoll
55.63 2071 ACN(p)
56 1421 ACN(o)
52.13 1200 Galaxy
54.25 1300 Morgan1
53.13 2115 Morgan2
The weighted mean is ALP 54.2% of TPP vote. That would yield around 88-92 seats.
If you use the a 63% weighting for the Greens, it is ALP 53.2%. This yields 81-85 seats.
Those two numbers are your bounds of plausibility. Somewhere between a Ruddslide and a very comfortable ALP win.
Yo 31.
Because they are not random samples.
Exit polls are potentially prone to selection bias, and don’t typically include late-hour voters, so I wouldn’t put too much stock in them. They’ll tell us that there’s a swing on, but not really how big it is, if that makes sense.
Ta Spiros
Yo Ho Ho, it takes a huge and professional, US style exit polling company to do it well.
1. You’re asking folk moments after the privacy of the booth, to disclose their vote to strangers. Just witness how many take all HTVs just to be polite/opaque.
2. Without a real army, how are you going to target a true cross-section?
3. How, within an hour or less can you weight the data as done by normal polling (eg for over-sampling ages, gender etc)?
4. Any exit poll leaking at 2:30pm can only have sampled morning voters – who knows what bias that might create? (A lot to Labor if early turnout is motivated by a desire for change; a lot to Libs if the elderly are oversampled)
very strange story here. What is going on there?
From news.com: “AWARD winning journalist Caroline Overington hurled abuse at Labor candidate for Wentworth George Newhouse before slapping him across the face at a polling station in Sydney’s east, witnesses say.”
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22813949-5012863,00.html
Exit polls may be rough, but it’s still an indicator and I happy that they are good. If the exit polls were the other way round the Libs would be banging on about the narrowing.
All in all, looking good.
news.com.au online exit poll has Labor ahead 47 to 39 on the LNP. Obviously that will change once all the lib stooges log on and fudge the figures, but a good sign.
SportingBet still open? Offering Labor $1.3 / Coalition $3.5
William, where ever you are, can I suggest you close one of the threads. Having two threads open is making it difficult to follow what’s going on.
Oh Ms Overington, you so crazy
Just finished a stint at ST Andrews primary school in McEwen (a small booth)most took a Greens or ALP HTV card very few took Liberal.
Just did 6hrs of Greens HTV in very safe Labor so nothing out of the ordinary.
Libs didn’t even turn up until about 10am.
That Newhouse must be a ladies man of the highest order or Caroline just a bit embarrassed.
What exit polls? I think it’s just guess work.
Chijoff turned up at my booth and I walked away, needed to exercise self-control.
BetFair still opens. Offering Labor $1.33 / Coalition $3.7
Here I am!
“That Newhouse must be a ladies man of the highest order”
Hehe.
A woman scorned?
That Caroline Overington story is gold. She’s lost it!
Damn, this bottle is empty aready?… Better call a cab…
@34 Flash
Yes there is a very valid sdchool of thought that Kerry won in 2004 but for some polling ‘irregularities’ in Ohio and certain other places… Many articles if you care to look.
54 Frank – and $3 about Maxine with Betfair. The chaps laying these odds must be mad!
I heard that Caroline Overington has been re-assigned already by the Oz editor – she’ll be starting up a personal relationships advice column.
OverandOutington couldn’t even handle that Sam in the City crap at fairfax….
Re: Overington’s Slap
I’m looking forward to the MSM eating one of their own in the days to come.
I wonder if we can expect any more high profile implosions…
Did not realise there was a new thread but this is BREAKING NEWS so will repost.
Just back from voting at Church in Oxford St Bulimba where Rudd voted earlier.
To say there is a lingering vibe down there is an understatement.
Over the church and its grounds but not anywhere else in the street. IT IS TEAMING WITH RAIN.
If you stare for a while at the ground you can see the brown grass turning green and new shoots sprouting up.
The drought is about to BREAK !!!
I have diagnosed Overington: Narcisstic personality disorder IMHO
K Jin
Praise the LORD Praise the LORD!!!!!!!
It’s not St Crsipins day…tis St Kevin’s day!!!!
“any more high profile implosions…”?
All eyes on Tony Abbott about 8pm I suppose.
AJ not sure if you got my message on the other thread. Can you use AJ2 as I have used aj on this site for a long time and it will stop the confusion. Thanks again.
Is there a new OverItington piece up?
Imagine seeing Abbott just stonewalling and denying until Howard comes on to concede and then Abbots head exploding on camera midsentence…..
Maurico @ 65 – She and Malcolm must go to the same therapist. Maybe that’s how they met.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22813949-12377,00.html
George FYI
Just back from voting in Fairfax – asked the Labor guy how he felt things were going “Good -Very Good” was the reply.
Lots of people not taking Liberal HTV – Family First Girly (in Pink Bikini top under see through T-Shirt) Ignored by most.
Get Up and Libs in the prime spots. No Dams put Labor last signage but no people.
That’s usually a pretty good booth at St Andrews, from memory SilverBodgie.
Things looked pretty good at Diamond Creek PS too. Were the Libs at St A’s wearing those silly pinko Fran Bailey baseball caps, too?
It will be interesting hear how the new housing areas around Mill Park etc go when it comes to McEwen.
50@thesilverbodgie,
I’m not surprised for St Andrews is a booth that the Liberals only win when they are travelling well the Greens always do well in that booth.
I’m not surprised by the comments of Will of Kooyong for I have known for a while that the Green vote is surging in Melbourne’s East.
Cheers Gerr, reading it now.
So the ‘exit poll’ is just another online vote you do at home is it? Useless then.
Yep thats the impression lots of people voting GREENS, which is good for Labor.
Sky News claims it is doing an exit poll .. no indication who is doing it, or how professional it will be.
Well f*ck me! Ms Over-IveLostItOnDrugsNeedHelpPlease-ington is one sick puppy. Seriously deranged loser.
Overington’s problem is that she is not content to report on the story or even comment on the story. She wants to be the story.
Well, now she is.
She was already skating on particularly thin ice after the email affair. He bosses at the GG are likely to take a dim view of a supposedly serious journalist assaulting a candidat outside a polling place.
73 ruawake That doesn’t sound like a Family First person, remember they are very religious. Maybe they paid someone, who didn’t dress for the ocassion.
Caroline Overington sounds like a walking version of Glen Close’s character in “Fatal Attraction’. Newhouse must be really creeped out by this woman and her delusions and obsessions about him
Voted earlier in Boothby – heaps of people about, sun is shining, nice day. Didn’t see a single HTV for Southcott. Everyone had Cornes or Greens. The earlier prediction that said Cornes may win with Greens preferences might be right.
Overington is presumably peeved that Newhouse leaked her ‘flirty’ emails.
Good to see a journo who believes in freedom of information, except for herself.
Chris B
It was at Coolum Beach HS.
Jordan… how does your booth usually go?
Just got back from Glen Eira, a strong Liberal area in Melbourne Ports (just next to Higgins, etc).
Still doggedly Liberal, but no show from FF (which surprised me), heard from a friend that FF had a runction that scared off a lot of their booth workers this time round.
People were interested in GetUp. More people interested in Lyn Allison than the Democrats … she probably should’ve run as an independent (ala Bartlett in QLD).
Very strong Green presence, but I think votes thin on the ground for minor parties in that area.
A lot of people taking Labor and Green/GetUp.
The Greens lady next to me was slightly crazy – she tried to out green me but the Democrats kick ass in that category to be frank and so she looked like a fool, especially when it turned out she had driven to the booth (I had ridden my push bike)
The socialist guy told me when he went to hand me his HTV that he would by me a coffee if I took it. Obviously he had been watching the main parties and was attemting to me middle class welfare.
I voted this morning in Berowra. Not one Labor person there to hand out HTVs, only a Liberal bloke and a lady from the Greens. I guess the ALP have put all their manpower into the neighbouring seat of Bennelong(any intelligence from there so far?). That’s what you get for living in a safe Liberal seat where I guess there won’t be much of a swing against Howard, but who knows?
Went 53-47 Southcott last time. The swing is on in SA.
#81 Spiros. Agreed. You can’t report on the news and be it at the same time without shredding your credibility.
Jordon: do you think Nicole can win? Despite all the crap she’s copped in the media, I like her actually, from the little I’ve seen of her on TV.
Not sure about here, but in France the exit polling is near perfect. So much so that elections and referendums are called the second the polls close. They’ve never been even out more than 0.5%.
The 2004 Exit Polls in America showed Kerry winning. We’ll never know for sure, but it’s clear fraud and deliberately long lines prevented many people from voting in Ohio.
If the sampling is random and not affected by “ashamed” voters, exit polls are innately *more* accurate than other polling because you are asking someone about something that they have just done, rather than something they *plan* to do.
As for N.S.W, I’ve heard a whisper that Hughes will be the real surprise tonight.
In some ways, Cornes very public persona probably helps her – people will remember her name. (All publicity is good publicity.)
I’m amazed the Government Gazette actually endorsed Rudd. Today’s edition was wall to wall pro Howard/anti Labor propoganda – Shanahan’s last stand?
Cornes is up against a historically doggedly Liberal seat in SA. Theyve held it for 50 years. More than 60% of the people in the seat are 55+. But I tell ya, from what I saw today, and from what a friend said about what he saw at his booth in the upper-class Hawthorn area…. the swing is on.
Exit poll of 3000 by news.com says 47/39 to ALp on primaries
Both Seven and Nine will be calling the election based on exit polls in a pre-election night show at 5:30 PM AEDT.
HH 95
Hughes is the smokey, just as it was in’96. Every election has one.
Does anyone know when the Sky News exit poll is going to be released?
Voted at a tiny school this morning and on the way in was handed a Tony Windsor HTV and took, told the bloke with the Betts ( Nats) HTV that I didn’t want that. As I walked away I heard the Nats fella say “First honest voter we’ve had today!”.) Made me laugh. Voted ALP 1, Tony 2.
Senate, Greens………
Link BBD?
ruawake, can you vote at the hs. i thought it was only the church or primary school?
Swing Lowe, apparently 5.30pm.
“Caroline Overington sounds like a walking version of Glen Close’s character in “Fatal Attraction’. Newhouse must be really creeped out by this woman and her delusions and obsessions about him”
Hope he doesn’t own a rabbit.
I was just told 47/39 to ALP- but i cant find where my mate saw it yet
Just voted in Deakin. about 4 lib people handing out how to vote cards, no one from labor was there, well at least no one i could see which was a shame.
There was one greens man there but i had to tap him on the shoulder and ask for an how to vote card.
As a result everyone in the line pretty much only had lib how to vote cards dammit
Sorry it was the PS, near the roundabout on Sth Coolum Road.
Oh my god. If the primaries are like that, it’s all over.
Yep sure, didnt realise there were two of us
AJ II
Oh please. Do NOT take anything from exit polls. Please please please. They’re never accurate.
John Kerry led 54-46 on the exit polls in the 2004 US election. And look what happened.
it’s the online poll.
Everyone in the media has been giving Cornes a bad time. Dumb blond etc But what about Jackie Kelley It is only now they tell us she is a airhead. Not that we would need any help knowing that after AM interview the other day. But that was 6 years after she had been a minister.
Exit polled by phone by Channel 7. Result to be broadcast before 6pm news.
Questions:
Have you voted.
Year of birth.
Which party did you vote for.
Chijoff is an even lighter weight than Kelly, if that’s possible. Of course, you have to discount her lardarse first.
javascript:window.open(’http://www.news.com.au/poll/1,,1242-5031842,00.html’, ‘_blank’, ‘width=350,height=450′); void(0);
K Jin – if Cornes was a Liberal, rather than Labor, then the Adelaide media, particularly the Advertiser, wouldve given her an armchair ride.
The Sky exit is out at 3.00 o’clock Qld Time which after tonight will be the only time that matters.
thanks ruawake ill head down to the church. then the pub!
dont worry it is an online election poll
111 Jordan. So, do you reckon if we ignore the exit polls it should help John Howard win?
This News exit poll is that silly online vote thing they’ve got up, correct?
Any predictions on the swing to Labor in Lindsay?
10% I think, at least.
yep, William
Jordan – Bullsh-t.
EXIT POLLS ARE USUALLY ACCURATE. 2004 is perhaps the only exception, but many would argue extensive fraud was involved in that election.
They are used around the world to *detect* electoral fraud.
“In some instances, problems with exit polls have encouraged polling groups to pool data in hopes of increased accuracy. This proved successful during the 2005 UK General Election, when the BBC and ITV merged their data to show an exit poll giving Labour a majority of 66 seats, which turned out to be the exact figure.”
The Young Libs have already started hacking the news.com.au online poll
Chris B – ignore the exit polls in general
Swing Lowe, I’ve heard the Sky poll will be 4.30 EDT. Seven and Nine I believe will have polls an hour later. Don’t quote me on that though.
Yes William- sorry guys, i got a call from a mate and got excited
Yes William, and now it’s changed to 44/43. I suspect we’ve got the silly multiple click thing going on.
Libs have hacked the News.com.au poll
If the Sky exit is at 4:30 EDT, there’s only 65 minutes to go…
John Ryan – like a phone poll, you can refuse to take part in an exit poll. They’re inaccurate.
I know Swing Lowe… I can’t believe how nervous I am about the election. Have to keep telling myself it doesn’t matter haha.
Yes of course. They automatically adjust for the “shy Tory” factor of UK 1992.
On the question of the accuracy of exit polls, Sky did one for the NSW State Election this year.
What happened was that they underestimated the swing to the Libs on TPP, BUT overstated the amount of seats that the Libs would gain from Labor. However, they were pretty close to the mark on both…
125 John Ryan. That’s right. They detected the fraud in the Ukraine election this way and forced another election.
“Leaks of exit poll figures for the 2004 presidential election, mainly via the Internet, appeared to indicate a victory for John Kerry. The discrepancies between the exit poll data and the vote count that were outside of the margin of error, coupled with irregularities in the election which seem to explain the discrepancies and what many perceive as evasive tactics by the polling companies, have shed doubt on the legitimacy of that election amongst political activists and some government officials.”
133 Jordan. As we keep asking. Show us the evidence. You can only quote one which was dubious.
It is so dodgy how the news.com.au polls always spike all the sudden once the young libs attack in force.
Still you could see the trend prior and it was looking very promising.
I would take a sky news poll with a grain of salt, but this close to the end it hardly matters.
Apparently the Greens have ratted on their deal to preference Labor, in Adelaide and Hindmarsh at least. Their HTVs suggested a 1 in the Greens square, then fill out the other squares according to choice.
Caroline Overington sounds as if she is auditioning for a role in Sex in the City produced and directed by Malcolm Turnbull with cameo roles for members of the Demented Bondi Bonkers Association.
I dont have evidence – I just think that people can shirk the exit polls. Im not an expert in it. I take your knowledge over mine.
Portlandbet project Labor to win 82 seats overall:
http://betelection.com/elections/?p=85
141
Phil Robins Says:
November 24th, 2007 at 3:28 pm
“Apparently the Greens have ratted on their deal to preference Labor, in Adelaide and Hindmarsh at least. Their HTVs suggested a 1 in the Greens square, then fill out the other squares according to choice.”
Phil – did’nt Bob Brown say that you could ‘double whammy’ your vote by voting 1 Green and then preference any way you liked ?
I don’t think that means that the Greens have ratted on any agreement, however I stand to be corrected.
Jordan well then we suggest you put up or shut up.
All polling can be “shirked”. That’s why we wont decide the election of it. But exit polls are as accurate or more so than pre-vote opinion polls.
The news.com.au was dodgy to begin with and now has been hijacked by Young Libs HQ, rendering it totally worthless if it wasn’t already.
The punters’ verdict:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22814196-29277,00.html
Sorry Sir John Ryan, just expressing my opinion. I bow to your holiness.
Unusually long queues in busy Barton booth for first few hours. Despite five entrances to the booth, Liberals had one person doing HTVs: a Year 12 student from local Catholic girls’ school who seemed to have zero interest in or knowledge of politics, but said she was best friend of the daughter of the candidate. Had promised to stay all day but was whingeing about exhaustion by 9am. At least 10 ALP workers, handful of Greens, one Christian Democrat. Robert McClelland swung by for a sausage roll and gee-up of the troops.
Front page of the Age
http://www.theage.com.au/
News.com.au (young Libs) exit poll is a joke. Just clicked refresh after 5 minutes and the Lib vote increased by 50 whiloe Labour increased by 10 LOL!
chino @ 151, Overington looks like a photo on Australia’s Most Wanted… mad cow.
151,
Chino, Caroline’s picture looks like a bloody mug shot? Is that an omen or what?
Greens were going to preference Labor on the mainland in exchange for getting Labor’s Senate surplus. Looks like they’ve reneged on the deal.
Just back from the Henley Primary Booth in Hindmarsh. All going well. Saw Nick Bolkus (former labor minister) come to vote earlier. Only other celeb. was K.G. who is a sports commentator here in Adelaide, who gave me a smile and a thumbs up as he left the booth.
yes razmatazz… it started off at a little higher than you’d expect… and then quickly descended into a Coalition landslide.
yup…..at least the SMH had the grace not to put her photo up….just a bemused pix of Newhouse. She is certifiable.
The fact is the news poll is still roughly neck and neck despite the lib attacks. That doesn’t look good for them at all. That particular site has been hijacked by lib supporters all through the campaign. If you look at something like the SMH site in comparison, the views are much more ALP orientated.
William, for those of us with firewall issues, are you going to run a Meebo page tonight as well as an IRC?
Phil, Calm Down! I know heaps of Green Voters and they will preference Labor whether HTV cards or not. The aim is to get rid of the Howard GOvernment and I think it is a credit to all the opposition parties that they have focussed on the Big Issue at hand and have worked together. If you are a Labor man, I am sure that you will be very happy with Green preferences before the end of the evening.
Voted on the news exit poll a few times and only got one message that I’d already voted but it still let me vote again. The young libs fingers must be getting sore
yes thats right Phil, well never trust a rat
Matti really N Bolkus a celeb??? give us a break
That photo of overtington is scary she looks like a real Psycho
Actually Phil Brenton has a ponit greens arent capable o following a ticket in any case
For those of you not on the other thread, this is fantastic
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=H1lYCbjzQ4I
also linked via the Crikey page.
based upon the exit polls and PB reports from around the country, anyone want to guess when antony will call it? I will be conservative and say 8pm as soon as the WA polls close
.
Mrs Danvers has a tick over 2 hours left in Kirribilli House – I hope the butler’s hidden the matches…
It is clear from Overington’s columns in the GG that she has been eating barbed wire for breakfast for far too long. Her fit of madness in Wentworth will go down in the annals of election day history.
classic chino
Ratcatcher . . . that’s a gem!!
Pretty please,William.I can read Meebo but with limited IT experience and worried about security stuff-up re firewalls, just can’t access IRC.
Its time to leave the house “Jeanette”
Julie, I also think somewhere between 8 and 8.30. Enough to get at least an hour from QLD, NSW + VIC, and a bit from SA. WA hopefully irrelevant.
Just got back handing out HTVs for Greens in North Sydney. Wouldn’t hold on to many hopes for Bailey. Hope I’m wrong, but libs were handing out more than ALP. Lot’s of old dyed-in-the-wool types rolling up to vote, and lots of young libs. Yuck!
Well, two can play at the click-script game…Nahm why should I bother? It’ll make the ALP victory even more sweeter.
Caroline Overington – putting the ‘ass’ in ‘class’
She seems to have forgotten that the election’s not about her.
I wonder about Caroline Overington. She writes that book about AWB and does some good things in pursuing the Government, then she descends into being a sneering Tory ‘colour writer’ and blogger, then she gets involved in the Wentworth campaign in a bizarre manner, and now this…. Good grief. Whatever they have got her on, cut the dose….
In the another post
768
Nostradoofus Said that the SMH was reporting that Rudd was downbeat can anyone link to that article I cannot find it
So, who will be left in the smoking ruins of the GG political staff? After the change in editorial opinion to the ALP and Ms OverItington, and the irrelevant Shananananhahan, what is left and will they jump on board the Rudd-train?
I presume Nostradoofus was talking about this article:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/i-can-still-win-it-pm/2007/11/23/1195753314707.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
Rudd was down playing the forecast result. “It will be tight etc….” That’s all.
For heaven’s sake! Will someone in Sydney please sleep with Caroline…lets end this fustration!
Maybe she ran out of walls to climb…
Voted this morning with wife at local booth – stong liberal booth
The this afternoon took mother-in-law to vote at different boot – lots of labor
Solomon
Ms OverItington’s already started her new job clicking the Liberal button on the news exit poll
Chino,
I also think WA will be irrelevant BUT I think that even if he has called enough individual seats to make the tally obvious, that he will do the politically correct thing and wait until WA polls close. Of course, that might be just my USA experience speaking there (I’m a dual citizen and lived there until December 2004). Over there, the folks in California, Oregon and Washingon get really all bent out of shape if the MSM call the election before their polls have closed. It has been so bad in some years gone by that now they just won’t do it. It is like the elephant in the room that no one can talk about. Its worse there too because the US West coast is 4 hours behind the east coast, not 2 hours like WA is here. No compulsory voting there either so once the race has been “decided” there is no motivation to get out to the ballot box and lots of local races on the WC suffer from decreased turnout.
stark world – Sydney may have a trashy rep, but we do have some standards!
Send her some new batteries.
Voted at Hyacinth’s old school, Daceyville Public, on scenic Bunnerong Road. That’s the school she won’t admit going to. Anyways, the vibe there is total carnage for her hubby. But then again, it always is in these parts.
If it comes down to WA then It’s over already either way.
Any thoughts as to what impact the Sky Exit Polls will have in the Wild West?
could we get her interested in Joe Hockey- start a rumour that Joe is quietly interested
Further to what Julie’s saying Wiki tells us:
“Widespread criticism of exit polling has occurred in cases, especially in the United States of America, where exit-poll results have appeared and/or have provided a basis for projecting winners before all real polls have closed, thereby possibly influencing election results. In the 1980 U.S. presidential election, NBC predicted a victory for Ronald Reagan at 8:15 pm EST, based on exit polls of 20,000 voters. It was 5:15 pm on the West Coast, and the polls were still open. There was speculation that voters stayed away after hearing the results. Thereafter, television networks voluntarily adopted a course of not projecting the presidential victor until after polls closed in the West, Hawaii and Alaska excluded.”
Kina:
HAHAHAHHAHAHHA
guys that smh article where Kev was down beat was written earlier this morning… he is just playing a straight bat…
Thanks Swing Low
no wonder I missed it that was just standard Rudd press speak with the adjective added by the reporter I was expecting some big talk of inside the Rudd camp faces are glum etc
Chino – finally had a laugh on e day -
Re N Sydney – we have to leave some seats for 2010/2011…
Beware Skynooz exit polls folks. Going on their past form it will probably be biased towards the Coalition. Wait till the real thing.
Greens penetrating deeep into labor strongholds in SEQ – can’t wait the roll-call
Neilbris — disagree. They will want to be the first to call the election correctly. Will give them heaps of cred.
Time to go to the party……thanks for all the cameraderie on site. Hope you all have a great night tonight.
5pm Champagne
6pm Gather round to watch the count
7pm Make egregious remarks about LNP, watch Minchin turn white
8pm Antony Green calls it for Rudd – open the good stuff
9pm Concession from Rodent
10pm Bennelong confirmed lost
11pm Taxi!
Stark world @ 182
Jeez. That’s beyond the call of duty. Would require high penalty rates. As of memory, Ms Overaries flashed her jiggers somewhat at The Age. Chaps, most of whom indulged in sport, kind of looked at each other and decided – nah. As it were …
Sorry. I was to remain silent until after 6pm.
Sky News saying that exit polls are out in half an hour…
janey…sometimes yah gotta take a hit for a good cause
Ashley I think any chance of Skynooz having cred is long gone.
OK, getting confused with so many time zones.
1800
NSW, VIC, TAS + ACT
1830 [+30 mins]
SA
1900 [+ 60 mins]
QLD
1930 [+90 mins]
NT
2000 [+120 mins]
WA
So, no earlier than 2030 to give due respect to the sandgropers.
LOL. Won’t stop them trying.
‘For heaven’s sake! Will someone in Sydney please sleep with Caroline…lets end this fustration!”
Who will volunteer for this suicide mission?????
187 Julie. But those states are blue states, Julie and they could effect the result because they have so many votes up for grabs. California on its own has 55 votes and can change the election on its own. Unless its close here W.A. won’t make a difference.
Senior Libs keeping a very low profile is telling. Costello got his head on early but no-one likes being associated too closely with a loss. They want Howard to own it.
Derek Corbett, thanks…..needed that laugh!
210
Only one person could possibly do it, Costello!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/24/2100097.htm?section=justin
Chijoff may need someone to volunteer as well…..3 days!
Anyone who wants to play dirty like the Young Libs:
http://www.freewareland.com/internet/775/
Overington’s wikipedia page has already been updated.
Ashley….on the other hand Skynooz could pump up the ALP vote in an attempt to encourage the late voting masses to vote for the government to avoid a landslide. It strikes me that whatever they come out with I will see a conspiracy. Think I need a wine.
no way Snoopy Doo Doo he’s already committed to john and knows he leaves the lid off the tooth paste
202 Ashley Not with the Young Liberals rigging it.
Spiros……gotta love the www.
Back off Overington. I have it on good authority that she is a pollbludger and she posts here as Generic Person. She is only trying to add some colour to the campaign with a bit of sleaze and titillation. After all isn’t that her job over at the OP (Opposition Gazette..LOL)
Maybe Caroline an Shannas can get together for a dirty weekend of two types.
A couple of days ago she thought it was hilarious. What a loser.
Neilbris,
I think you need one too…
202 Ashley Sorry got it mixed up with the news.com.au
lol #222! Kinda has a ring to it, “Opposition Gazette”
Howard on Sky:
Body Language says
THEY ARE FOCKED
Chijoff…it may be the end of that marriage if she loses…which she most certainly will.
Heard of an exit poll showing 8pt swing. Exit polls are conducted by phone.
Perhaps Chijoff and Overington could console each other. It’d make a great front page!
214, I think 215 is more Costellos go judging by Tanya’s rather large backside
Damm I thought Overington was Tabatha
HarryH – agree – still saying – undecideds…if you think the country is heading in the right direction crap.
diogenes…that thought did cross my mind. I decideded to file it under “use when in need of puking”
Is it legal to do this?
“On Saturday Mr Turnbull placed an advertisement in a Sydney newspaper claiming Mr Newhouse was an invalid candidate.”
Would the majority of the pop voted by now?
What % leave it till now-6pm?
There’s nothing to be gained in Sky rigging the poll. But they might not be any good at it and f#%k it up by accident.
I’m tipping them to call an easy ALP win with 80-90 seats.
BMWofVictoria are Tabitha and ESJ and Glen and GP and LTEP not the same person?
Rudd in the Skynews interview this morning was exceptionally jolly. Nothing remotely about his words or body language could be taken as “downbeat”.
I think Newhouse could contest for a by-election if Turnbull’s action is illegal and deemed to have affected the result?
Alcohol sales have skyrocketed as it seems that every true believer has simultaneously hit the grog hard…the stress is almost unbearable. Could we really be finally freed from the yoke of this psycho?
I think Glen is many people……say the ones sitting in the Lib HQ building in Barton….
Just pulled a long stint on a Warringah booth, returning soon for the finish. But it’s looking good. Loads of support for the RuddStar, with the Greens going very strong. It’s a friendly booth, but this is loooooking good.
The SKY is going fall today and take TV and Galaxy and Newspoll with it
Ashley…may your wishes turn to realities
Has anyone heard Chijoff talk? She has the oratory skills of a 7th grade kid giving a speech to the class.
Kina, Dunno, I can’t imagine him doing it unless he had advice that it was though.
I think it will just piss of people in his electorate anyway. OK, there is an element of ‘Newhouse is an idiot’ but tactics like this make Turnbull look desperate and at any rate, why would people change their vote on a by-election when the by-election was forced on them by a sore loser.
Rudd said today: ALP will be more than competitive.
The first coky statement all year!
Is there some extra-bad punishment for threatening and assualting a candidate in an election? It strikes at the heart of democracy. I think that despite competition from Abbott and Garrett that Overington gets Loser Of the Election Award.
“I think Glen is many people”
All of which are quite annoying.
I will be shocked if Sky calls it for the Libs. Not going to happen. Boy would they look stupid if they got it wrong.
You’ve gotta love Howards bizarre tenacity “If people dont vote for me they risk not getting a tory govt” urrrrr yes and that would deter us why???
Diogenes at 231…plus Chijoff’s hubby and a photocopier…let him distribute those pamphlets
247 I haven’t. She came to my booth and I ignored her.
yes Grover, I was shocked when I first heard her also. Is that the best they could do?? In a tight marginal?? The talent is really drying up.
Responding to Amaranthus (text below mine)
Do you know far and wide I’ve been looking for this? Thank you!!
If you have several samples, you may as well (i) do whatever possible to make the estimates commensurate (ii) POOL them … and (iii) try to deal with anomalies if and where possible.
The weighted mean is the result of pooling these samples, and is likely a better indicator, given we don’t know which is actually the best.
The Galaxy is an anomaly, only if you take a whole lot of things as being ideal that never are inpractice. Anomalies and differences are far more likely the product of very specific methodlogical points and/or weaknesses in implementing random sampling, than any genuine differences in voter intentions.
The standard deviation of the means (percentages) is about 1.4%. The Galaxy poll is within about 2 standard deviations of the mean of the means, without weighting because I’m considering between samples variance a bigger factor given the sample sizes.
In short, if you’re realistic that there is more variation between polls than among, and admit you don’t know which is best, they’re not really that inconsistent and the best estimate available remains right around 54%.
The nice Monte Carlo simulations based on the same mean gave about a 0.97 chance of a Labor win.
*********************************
Amaranthus Says:
November 24th, 2007 at 2:29 pm
As I said earlier, the polls are actually quite consistent with each other if you do your own preference weighting and take account of sample size correctly.
If you allocate preferences as 75% green to ALP and 50% other. This gives the following table (with sample size as 2nd column):
ALP n Poll
53.75 2615 Newspoll
55.63 2071 ACN(p)
56 1421 ACN(o)
52.13 1200 Galaxy
54.25 1300 Morgan1
53.13 2115 Morgan2
The weighted mean is ALP 54.2% of TPP vote. That would yield around 88-92 seats.
If you use the a 63% weighting for the Greens, it is ALP 53.2%. This yields 81-85 seats.
*******************************
I’m finding it very hard not to pour a drink before vote-counting begins. I’m forcing myself to drink cups of tea.
Reading about Overington and Chijoff makes me want to open the champagne now. Best laughs of the campaign arrive shortly before the polling booths close.
she’d be ok with something stuck in her gob
I think it’s especially ironic that Ovaries wrote a piece about there not being enough humour in the campaign yesterday. She has been absolutely hilarious.
One correction. I meant if …. if you’re realistic that there is more variation between polls than within for these sample sizes; i.e. than if they were all done in exactly the same way by same people …
Me too antonio infact I have begun celebrating already their f**ked
10 mins till sky makes their call…
Caroline deserves a Nantuckett Sleigh Ride
thanks ashley I’ll get another bottle ready
Anyone watched the Sky News channel of Rudd? They have camera and mics on him when he goes to vote – and you can clearly hear his address. Not sure if they should have done that.
Voters talking to livenews
http://www.livenews.com.au/MultimediaPopUp.aspx?id=18375&cat=2
Don’t be too hard on Chijoff. Remember, Jackie Kelly left it till pretty late to decide not to stand again. The Liberals would have struggled to get a new candidate, with the polls (and Kelly’s decision not to re-nominate) suggesting the seat was gone anyway.
Chijoff, Newhouse and McKew are the three candidates from this election who won’t be easily forgotten. For different reasons, of course.
In McEwen we had the mildly amusing situation of the Family First candidate manning the booth all by himself while our entire family were handing out Greens cards
Ashley, I’m sure Skynooz is quite used to looking stupid
Kina (241) I think it’s a very risky thing for Turnbull to do. If he is challenged and the result over turned Labor don’t have to select the same candidate in the re-run. They could come up with someone a lot more competent and anything could happen. If Labor wins and there are by-elections as a result of resigning Liberals I’m tipping the ALP will do very well in them.
The commenter known as Adam: it might be a good idea for you to use a different name. Chap called Adam Carr kind of has a monopoly on the Adam handle round here.
OMG the amount of idiots on that video.
Why is Bruce Baird bright red on Sky Nooze
I don’t think ESJ and Glen are the same person. ESJ does fuddy duddy oldster brilliantly and Glen does young and naive the same. I have Glen’s wide variety of punctuation and mood for exactly the same reason I expect he does – late night drinking!
All of them have a right to be heard and I’m eith the redoubtable William, this site is a Pseph site not a left wing love in site.
General Wenck had better turn up with those divisions pronto!
Ruawake 274
195/110 BP
14 minutes ago. Award-winning journalist Caroline Overington has hurled abuse at Wentworth ALP candidate George Newhouse before slapping him across the face at a polling station in eastern Sydney, according to witnesses.
At first we thought who was this woman yelling at Newhouse, then she slapped him and we realised it was Caroline Overington.
It’s 4.30..
Looked like normal queenslanders to me
Appeal for sanity:
Please, please don’t read too much – or even much at all – into the Sky News exit polling to be released any moment.
This is simply a marketing gambit by Sky to get people tuned into their coverage early, as opposed to the various free-to-air options.
Well I guess thr ALP wont win Wentworth then. Not that they ever would….
William. Computerless tonight but I’ll be thinking all night of this fine forum and it’s excellent citizens. Thanks to you and all others for both the (at times) compelling insight and great entertainment. I’ve lost far too many hours here due to the exceptional quality of this blog. Have a great night.
It’s OK, he’s changing it soon.
Grover @ 266.
Surely, everyone must know where the Lodge is?
Important to remember to make the distinction between meaningless online ‘exit’ polls, and phone polls it would seem, to avoid unnecessary palpitations at this stage I’d say
Might put a dvd of “The Longest Day” – that’s what it feels like. The waiting is unbearable. Sweet Jesus I hope Kev wins.
At my booth the Lib HTV man was standing 50m away from the booth and on the edge of the footpath. While in line, I saw him almost run over twice by passing traffic looking for parking. I guess they mistook him for a car jacker…or mybe not.
It otherwise would be a good tactic. For any candidate who has worked for govt you could advertise in the paper, just before an election, saying they are invalid. The defence [and no doubt Turnbull's] is that if they hadn’t resigned properly they would be invalid.
I guess you could say someone is invalid due to a possible criminal history – since they haven’t provided evidence of not having one.
I suspect if Turnbull wins Newhouse will have grounds to challenge.
Will Sky say that Labor is looking at an easy win in the exit polls so that WA step up and bring in the Johnnie vote?
Doubt it Jordan.
sky news poll?????????????????????????
Young Libs are falling behind again
http://www.news.com.au/poll/1,,1242-5031842,00.html
Sky News has banner “Exit poll results live on Sky News shortly” but nothing yet.. (for those without pay TV)
Does anyone have a link for watching Sky on the web?
Sinic 292 – Haha. Even the young libs cant keep up with the ACTUAL honest voting
i have it on the TV – will post anything coming.
They are dribbling out the exit polls results .. first they are giving most important issues to voters. 1. health and hospitals 2. the economy 3. IR/environment
Did anyone else see Liberal HTV cards which had a Bold 9 Point Plan on them and the Labor HTV card I saw just had a pic of Kevin on the back….
It was a bit concerning – a lot of people were reading through the Bold Plan as they were lining up….
I hope Labor was a bit smarter about this in more marginal seats – I was in a fairly safe Labor seat.
The problem with the weighted mean approach is that it assumes that the population proportions remain constant over time and that variation between the polls is just sampling error. This may be invalid if the underlying proportions are changing over time.
still things looking somewhat good for the alp
cheers
Howard too long? Agree 58 per cent disagree 42 per cent.
Sky exit polls: – Biggest issues – health, environment, IR, climate change.
58% agreed Howard been there too long
58% agree Howard in too long
Sample size – 2787
So does that mean 58%=ALP
Howard too long – those who agree could also favour Costello arrangement
AJ 2 thx for that. Cheers
Speers was nice enough to remind us this polling company is used by the ALP. Will David now announce is own bias?
Some people do say it rains more when the ALP is in government. Guess the weather gods already know the result.
My totally non professional opinon is she is suffering from prolonged constipation, ie full of….
If Newhouse doesn’t press charges he’s a a #@#$ idiot!
Just hope Overington never gets the hots for Milne. They might breed!!
The AEC are trialling electronic voting with the troops in Iraq and Afghanistan. Not sure what it entails but US type electronic voting machines must be resisted at all costs.
Rudd too inexperienced to govern 61% disagree
These results are fantastic for the ALP. 61% disagree that Rudd is inexperienced.
unions too much power – if alp elected 54% disagree
typical sky news, waffle on waffle on waffle on
Polling comapny used by the ALP enough said, useless….my suggestion is wait 80 mins for the real results to start coming out.
So far so good at SkyNews
Howard out of touch with working familys – 58% agree
Rudd has fresh ideas 64% agree
58% agree Howard out of touch with working families.
If they haven’t said the result yet, it’s gotta be good for Labor
311:
“unions too much power – if alp elected 54% disagree”
But does that mean 46% agree or ~30% agree and ~16% undecided?
Where were these exit polls conducted??
Re Overington – she’s recently separated iirc. Wonder if she’s lost it a bit as a reult of that.
Anyway, take this with a greain of salt, ALP exit polling v. good in Lindsay, v. good Parramatta, not very good Wentworth, 50-50 Bennelong. Apparetnyl a big swing on in SA.
given all the union ads then thats 54% for ALP vote
Howard has experience to manage the economy 71% agree
I dont want Costello to be PM 59% agree
http://www2.skynews.com.au/election07/article.aspx?id=202771
Oh please, these results are for some safe ALP seat released by some dodgy ALp polling company. Wait 80 misn people for the real results to come.
I dont want Gillard to be deputy PM
57% disagree
TELL ME FOR CHRIST’S SAKE
Just back from voting in Hume. For what it’s worth, an acquaintance who has been an electoral officer for many elections here told me that he has seen a marked increase in people entering with labor HTVs compared to previous elections. In his view the swing is on. Keep in mind that Hume is one of the safest LNP seats in the country, but that booths in Goulburn (where I voted) are generally pretty solid Labor.
We should be in for an interesting night. Can’t wait for news about the exit polls.
Just got back from the hustings in Parra. If I’ve missed it, can someone enlighten me on the prevailing thoughts re. accuracy of exit polling?
Is this long winded 100% agree
Thommo clutching at straws…
It is still raining over the church in Oxford St where Rudd voted.
In some of the bushes in the garden there are foraging dodos and a mother is suckling 6 baby Tassie Tigers.
Also a bemused Harold Holt is being sat down and been given a cup of tea as he drys off.
Jeez, Speers is having truble hiding his disappointment at some of these results…
So Thommo also dismisses the vote on Howard and the economy of course.
We will see in a few hours Ashley….I look forward to my apology.
Yep i dismiss it all LTEP.
Hawker says results so far good sign for Labour Howard brand Bad.
And I look forward to you eating your hat!
No posters of Howard/Costello found anywhere near my polling booth
Channel 7 says exit polls show a big swing to the ALP.
Channel 7 news says exit polls show big swings to labour in Northern Tasmania seats.
Sorry in Tas.
Exit poll shows big swing to ALP in Bass and Braddon says CH 7 News
Sweat it, Thommo.
haha channel 7 are smart and jump in before sky give their overall result
On the basis of the SkyNews exit poll questions it is looking like 56% or so for the ALP
The Landslide is on!
Thommo you have problems with Geography?
Did you think that deNial is a river in Egypt?
TPP 56 95 seats, looking chicken pick on my part. Unless this is wonkette 2004 in the US
I’m in Deakin and I saw plenty of posters with Howard and Costello on them. Pity they were ALP posters. Their pictures were bloody awful.
Ruddslide!
so sky didnt even give a “who did you vote for” poll? what a waste of time then.
Bit of gossip on Solomon.
One of the strong liberal booths (which has a large army contingent) is “too close to call” at this stage.
It’s true that the Exit polls are innacurate to a point, BUT if Howard was going to win they would have showed a trend toward the Libs, which they haven’t It’s over.
John Hunt Is A Coward: “Did you think that deNial is a river in Egypt?”
Quote of the day!
Don’t think the precise numbers in the exit polls can be relied on, but the general trend can.
Good…my local booth is a strong liberal one…I was standing there with a solitary Labor htv card.
No wonder Howard is still going around his seat. He is Bill Clinton Standing in the rain in Iowa on the night of the primary. Yes Clinton one in the end but he finished 3rd in Iowa.
352 RGee The actual count doesn’t start till after 6pm.
I did my on poll last night at my party…the poeple who wanted ALP were to use the upstairs toilet and the LNP vote were to go downstairs. Unfortunately there was a “house’ bias later on in the night when all the LNP women refused to use the downstairs toilet. So there is no point publishing figures.
Exit polls suggest late H*ward “surge” fabricated by Murdoch press.
Excellent news RGee. If Howard has lost the Defense crowd, it’s all over.
It is isn’t it Thommo?
There were no pictures of Howard or Costello where I voted in Macquarie, just reems of negative rubbish and plooms of Kerry Bartlett signs. Some capricious official made me put my ‘your rights at work shirt’ on inside out though before I could vote…
So Sky’s exit poll wasn’t a real exit poll at all???
If they didn’t ask them how they voted you can be sure it’s because they have no idea how to tally the data up properly.
The sudden change in method by Newspoll for the very last poll was too strange to take without suspicion.
Ashley they said they will reveal the vote question later… it’s a teaser
No, Sky just hasn’t released the national voting intention figures yet
Chris B – This is from a reliable source…
Or should I say, construct a proper sample. So they weren’t game to use their info to actually call the result.
Can anyone confirm that they are not actually giving a result??
Here’s a tribute to Thommo.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZhMbVuXH0JI
Yeah, Sky will release their exit poll voting figures around 11pm tonight….
Are you guys telling me that after all this refreshing I’m not going to get a voting exit poll!!!?????
Ah, OK. They’d better watch it or 7 and 9 will get in first!
Howards end said:
The problem with the weighted mean approach is that it assumes that the population proportions remain constant over time and that variation between the polls is just sampling error. This may be invalid if the underlying proportions are changing over time.
Snap says: Yes, that is what it assumes. However, you’re still better off to take the weighted mean, without knowing which is best. You can decompose things into errors associated with polls and time. This means the standard error is far bigger than you’d get for the weighted mean.
That’s why I took the sd of the means from the polls above, which is about 1.4%. This is vastly bigger than can be attributable to sampling error.
The weighted mean is still the best bet, without knowing which is best, and the s.e. is clearly most affected by between polls/samples variance.
Voting intention shortly – including eden monaro and bennelong
Are we Peeved off with Sky News 99.99% Agree
Diogenes,
You will get a voting exit poll. Expect it by 5:30 AEDT.
368 RGee It maybe, but no one knows until they are actually counted. I have worked as a scrutinizer.
William states what he is doing tonight on new thread…..
Looking at Sky’s exit poll discussion, looks like Neilsen was about rght. They haven’t got the the actual exit poll results yet, but of the 5 top issues identified by voters as impacting on their votes, 4 are owned by Labor. Those 5, in descending order of importance are: Hospitals, The Economy, IR Laws, The Environment and Education.
Agreed. It’s a landslide.
GHow much fun is doing th HTV?
I was at a booth in Seven Hills, a lib guy there saying “liberals for a strong economy” “liberals for jobs growth”. I thought that was really cool, so I started saying “liberals for Iraq, Liberals for Tampa, Liberals for kids overboard, liberals for interest rate lies”.
He stopped.
Have to say thoug, all in all it was pretty pleasant, just one knob this morning at my first booth. Apart from that, all pretty civilised, and I was amazed to find that some liberal voters don’t have two heads.
I passed by the AEC’s Melbourne CBD office just ninety minutes ago, where there’s a polling booth. Liberal ads plastered all over it, only a couple of Labor ads.
Makin. I volunteered handing out Labor and Greens cards.
Bob Day was there. He sounded down.
Anyone a prediction for Makin, Wakefield & Kingston?
379 – couple of beers and some nibblies I imagine….
58% think Howard has stayed in for too long and 59% don’t want Costello.
What does that tell you?
One reporter please. Facts.
BillBowe
SkyNews
http://www.news.com.au/live/popup
377 Swing Lowe- How accurate do you think it will be? I’d think that a lot of people who voted Rodent would be too ashamed to admit it in an exit poll. They’d scurry away to their lairs and hope for some cheese tonight.
I think some are calling it a bit early on flimsy evidence – not much to hang the hat on yet. Patience … patience. We don’t know much about these exit polls so far – where, sample etc.
HooHoo – All will fall easily to Labor with 5% margins.
Excellent sky results, you know when the libs don’t like what sky is telling them that they are in trouble.
Fair Dinkum, if that despicable dessicated coconut was going to win this election, there is no way the odds were going to stay as rock solid as they still are.
If enough of a swing was going back to the coalition, their odds would have shortened markedly in the betting to at least 2.75 by now from the current Sportingbet 3.25.
If I am wrong, I will walk from ever making comments on politics again.
The wording of the economy question was dubious as well. But I think – superseding all are the questions that Howard has been there too long AND I dont want costello to be PM
Hmmm.. Yeha I know… but I can’t say much more..
Thanks Possum (and anyone else who answered).
Settle.Down.People.
They haven’t cracked a single cardboard box yet.
Poss, thanks for the Sky news web feed – I couldn’t be bothered moving to the next room where the TV is
Once again, a RIDICULOUSLY WORDED economy question.
“Is Howard experienced enough to handle the economy?”
What a stupid question. Of course most people would say he is. He’s a 68-year-old who has been PM for 11 years!
The question SHOULD be: “Are Rudd and Swan too inexperienced to handle the economy?”
The markets closed at 12pm centre.
The Sky questions released so far were incredibly loaded ones and probably skewed the results significantly… Hopefully their voting intention questions weren’t as loaded…
Could Howards prediction come true? Decimation? I kind of hope not. I tight majority for ALP would probably be a better way for them to start. 10-12 seats should be enough.
Details of exit poll:
http://www2.skynews.com.au/news/article.aspx?id=202770
Thommo – not on Betfair – it’s open to the happy end when the result is known.
If those qualitative exit polls were right, that’s compatible with about a 7-8% on other comparable polling which has anchored voting intention to issue importance.
Are these exit polls skewed to whom?
snap
theres a whole bunch of stuff you could do.. but i agree in the end there isnt enough data to really make a conclusion so the weighted mean is your best bet from a statistical view. I was just making the point that if the underlying proportion had changed then the weighted mean wouldnt be appropriate.
cheers
heres hoping for a ruddslide
Thommo – You can still get $3 about Maxine on Betfair
I would imagine that Sky did ask people how they voted, but considers it inappropriate to release these results while booths in all states are still open.
The margins for every question are so pro-Labor that there’s no doubt how they’ll vote. Even if the exit poll is inaccurate, it would have to be enormously inaccurate to stop Labor winning.
And re the previous comment about the army-based booth in Solomon…
The defence vote is also very important in Herbert. Rudd made a really significant pledge, which the rest of the country wouldn’t have noticed, to give free medical and dental care to the families of all defence force personnel, not just the force members themselves. I’d vote for any party that gave both me and my family totally free medical care!
And I don’t think Iraq would be a favourite destination for the army either..
If there’s a swing in Solomon, there’ll be a swing in Herbert too. I think one of the seats in s/w Sydney that includes Ingleburn (Hughes? Macarthur?) would also have a defence-influenced vote.
Any news? ive just come to after an acid induced coma….I picked the wrong day to kick acid….
Ben: I’ll gladly take decimation of the Liberal Party, and the Nationals too.
But, too early for you all to be celebrating. God, I sound like LTEP LOL
You lazy bugger George!
Howard Hater… the Senator says your cover is blown. Retreat.
Ok …. walking home from the chinese rest. with our takeaway, I must have looked a sight. Holding 2 bags of food and drinks and a bottle of red wine and wearing my Kevin07 shirt.
I got a couple of horn toots from passing by cars 
. ….. exit polls will not be here for another 30 minutes per David Spears BUT the bar officially is open at our house 
…..
Goose says exit poll @5:30
Well, I’ve completed my civic duty in Watson.
Not much activity for an 1800 vote booth.
ALP had two people handing out HTVs.
Greens had a few posters and no people.
Libs had no people and no posters!
If Newspoll is blatantly proved wrong tonight, David O’Shaunessy should resign.
Goose = Spears?
exit polling seems to be validating labor’s strategy
What tie will Kerry O’Brien be wearing? A red one?
Whoever the talking head on Sky is.
418 – yes. All key strategy messages scored favourably for ALP
Possum Comitatus Says:”You lazy bugger George!”
You know, one of these days I’m actually gonna get the TV man to come to my place and organise for a connection in my home office. I hate watching TV in the other rooms of the house, cause even though I can drag the laptop there easily, two 24″ LCDs isn’t so easy
BTW, didn’t stick around on therapy thread on your site – did you manage to settle all those nervous nellys?
Well folks – only two hours left for the Howard goverment.
afternoon all , i’m feeling a mite nervous , this election has the feel of 96, change is a coming , i bloody hope so!
Yes a note of caution. Questions seem skewed and the pollster is the Labour Crosbt Texter. Buttwould be interesting to know if the first question after you answered if you had voted was. Who was it for. If they asked all the other questions first you may get some buyers remorse.
http://www.news.com.au/0,,qld,00.html
Check the major headline at news.com
its looking good
Anyone want to come with me and run around naked in ryde shopping centre if howard loses bennelong?
cheers
K Jin… answering all the other questions wouldn’t change the answer of who you voted for.
Unless you believe people lie to pollsters en masse and I don’t.
Thommo, that’s of their online poll which you can vote multiple times on.
channel ten news shows chaser boys handing out ‘those flyers’ in Lindsay…
Thommo – Haha. The internet poll? Hahahaha.
kjin
crosby textor are the lib pollsters
Come on guys! Why all the fuss about the exit polls when the real thing is less than an hour away. To all you tragics…it reminds of people who prefer looking at porn rather than actually having sxxxxxxx…(Ouch I just got hit by my girlfriend who acused me of being on a porn site. I had to admit to the porn, as there is no way I could have told her the truth!!!)
Barry #415
No Liberals at the booth at Ginninderra Lake College, in Fraser ACT, either. Not a good look if they want to win the 2nd Senate seat.
Sorry only read the headline folks.
They’re just drooling over the menu while they wait for the main course to arrive.
Thommo they’ve been peddling this “cliff-hanger” bullsh-t for a while now.
52-48 is not a cliff hanger and neither is 57-43 I’m afraid…
A typical Liberal failing, Thommo!
Latest on Medowie (in Paterson). The public school booth is feeling fairly even. If anything there are more people sailing past the liberal htv people. Labor have definitely got their act together this time. Strong xtian presence in this area too and the mood at the same booth last time was pretty ugly (pro Baldwin). Today despite the rain it felt hopeful.
Rumor has it that Raymond Terrace is doing very well.
Looking great. I find the new.com.au story hilarious, however, they are are saying it’s a cliffhanger based on their little web poll.
Chaser handed out how to vote cards to the Liberal candidate in Lindsay dressed as Osama Bin Laden.
So – what colour ties for Kerry O’Brien and Tony Jones? I’m tipping red power stripe and black suit for KO’B and the milticolour [orange, red and blue] with grey suit for TJ.
This is gusfaces son dads resting
BUT, thanks for voting out the liberal baddies now I can sleep at night
cheers mate – our pleasure!
432
howard’s end Says:
November 24th, 2007 at 5:07 pm
kjin
crosby textor are the lib pollsters
Yes I know. but the folks doing the exit of sky are the Labors party private pollsters. Hence they are the Labour mirror of Crosby Texter
Oh one other funny thing. Labor dominated the entrance to the school, standing under umbrellas. The Libs were cowering inside the school under walkways. That way you couldn’t walk around them. Even so there were plenty of people refusing to make eye contact with them.
To all. From the booths of Boothby. Good luck!!!
Booth traffic seemed pretty good. Best of luck William.
Off to the party.
Catch up later tonight.
sorry thommo at #426 that’s an old headline from last night…
Don’t know about the other ranks, but he started losing the top levels after ‘children overboard.’ And Nelson’s disregard for the opinions of the senior officers has really put noses out of joint.
could this really be howards end? please say it is so
450 – it is so:)
now if only maxine can get over the line in bennelong
I think Gusface went too hard too early – Bourboun will do that to you!
I dont think Howard has lost the defence crowd. I have a few mates in the Navy and they say the vast majority support Howard.
The Labor man sounded fairly confident about Qld
That’s Navy for you Thommo
Yeah Thommo right.
The Labor Party has continued to hold on as strong short priced favourites.
Betfair approaching the $4m matched bets mark – ALP 1.35 / LIB 3.85.
Bring home the bacon K07.
Thommo the defence crowd has always been conservative. However what I hear is there is a noticeable protest vote from the RAAF base here.
Howard’s end, don’t get me wrong — you are dead right … just from personal experience, I wanted to pool them.
Anyhow, yup — I’ve been saying for weeks that the likelihood is something between a comfortable win and a Ruddslide. Here’s hoping for the latter! But I’ll take either
Sky will say 51-49 or something like that for the exit poll, to keep it all brewing along as long as possible.
Guys,
Don’t be too hard on Thommo, Glen or ESJ – I like to remember that during their triumphal processions through Rome, even the most revered emperors had a person on the back of their chariot (just behind them), saying “You are but a mortal”, again and again.
To me, the Lib posters are these people – reminding us that not everyone (or for that matter the universe) inevitably sees things our way….
It looks like betting on Betfair is still open. It doesn’t look good for Maxine McKew as there is $3 available to back her but no offers at all to lay. http://www.betfair.com/
I can reveal exclusively that Labor has captured 100% of my household vote
PhilG Howard will retain Bennelong.
35 Mins and we get the first results from Tassie. Buckle your seatbelts Ladies and Gentlemen. We’re in for a bumpy ride this evening.
I think if defence votes Labour that is a good thing but if they do not that is Ok too. Though Having Navy mates voting Lib is very sus NOT Remember Navy just takes other blokes somewhere to do the fighting.
Also remember the AIF on the western front voted against conscription twice.
Dunno if this means anything – but was speaking to my Father-in-law earlier – he is working up on Koolan Island Iron Ore mine off the coast of Broome – he said he voted last week before heading out to the island for his next shift but most workers there have not done so and will not be able to get their vote in.
Make of it what you will
Booth on the border of Fadden and Moncrief felt pretty much like recent state elections (which may not be good for Libs as they were kicked pretty badly here lasrt time). There was a genuine feeling of change in the senate vote. I could tell the Fadden voters as there was a definite low level anger that wasn’t there at the last state plebiscite.
A few of the rusted-on Labor voters were wuite chipper but not the HTV people, who were a bit gloomy if anything. Interestingly, the Fadden National Party HTV person didn’t seem to know the names of any of the National Party candidates – probably a shirt-swapping Lib.
I was handing out for the Greens and there were three people who said they were new to the area and said that they would vote Green. Maybe a telling anecdote for all parties in the region.
Tassie will be a liberal party wipeout 5-zip win to ALP with strong preferences coming from the Greens
Overington denies slapping Newhouse
It was an “open handed push”. Hey baby, that’s still assualt!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22814756-12377,00.html
Our grandson was born last night. I hope he has come into a fairer, more tolerant Australia.
You should name him Gough.
“Betfair” … clearly an oxymoron, but thanks … I put some money on Maxine …
Mad Cow: I’ll be keeping my fingers crossed for your bloke Jim Arneman.
Unfortunately for those of us Labor supporters in Berowra, we’re stuck with the walking corpse for another 3 years.
Hawker said 8 to 9 % is do able in NSW
I don’t care if Rudd wins by a nose or 46 seats. The collect is the same. Give him strength.
I did a quick exit poll in my car on the way home – on that basis, Labor’s going to get 150.
@471 I hope so too. I was in Year 6 when JWH was voted in
its time @ 471
Are you going to call him Kevin?
Name him Gough Bob Paul Kevin Ruddling
Bruce Baird will not drop that 71% economy question. He looks like he’s had a few.
The kids might take our advice on politics but not on baby naming.
It’s time #471,
May all of his days be blessed by the gods, and may they smile upon his household.
My hope is that Berowra suddenly becomes very marginal and the Rudd Government spends some money here – unlikely though!
“Liberal Party” another oxymoron
Hunstundho Says: “Bruce Baird will not drop that 71% economy question. He looks like he’s had a few.”
Hmmm, not sure about that – I think he’s just heavily constipated.
James, that kind’a puts things in perspective!
Hunstundho they usually have polling booths in the camps. It would be unusal for the people working the roster wouldn’t have polling booths brought to them in the camps. Could be wrong though.
I agree with you Centre, i don’t care by how much Labor wins by, as long as there is a result,
I would rather it to be Landslide for the only reason being I dont think I have the nerves to sit up tonight if it is very close
Well – he’s bright red – so it could be one or the other….or both
WTF I think I just saw a Channel 7 add with that lying racist slag, Jackie Kelly? Is this right? Is she part of the broadcast?
memo to self: calm down…..calm down……calm down……its not all over yet……
aj – I asked him about that – no booths
@487 yeah thats for sure. I’m almost 23 now! If Rudd wins, it will be almost like a coming of age party.
Hmmm… I appear to have walked into a room that is leaning to the left…
My Bad!!!
Yep, and he [Baird] might also explode – some kind of twitching going on there.
HH, how marginal do you think he might be tho?
James @ 478
Try being in Year 3 when Howard was elected. Even then I remember feeling slightly bad when I headed into school on Monday to be asked by the teacher who the new PM was. I got it right, but I never thought I would be in my second year of uni and he would still be around.
Heres to him not being PM in my 3rd year of uni!
Leek, you will be assimilated.
Same here James I am 22 and all I have know is John Howard to be Prime Miniser,
For someone else to have the title Prime minister other than John Howard would just sound funny
People, leave Leek alone. We welcome all non-trolling views here on PB, seriously Leek.
#499 Yep… That sounds like the left to me… “Resistance is futile!”
it’s too late Bruce, jump while you can
478 James this election is feeling mroe and more like 1972. The anticipation and then the sense of the Nation finally going foward was brilliant.
was just joking Mathew
Bruce Baird just thinks there are still some votes to pick up before 6. I’d say after 6 he’ll loosen up and drop the party lines – you’d hope so anyway
Hawker just said they (OZ public) This time have COMPREHENSIVELY accepted that Labour can handle the economy. I could be wrong but he seems to be trying to keep a lid on it till the polls close.
Exit 53 47 labour
they are talking as if it is all over for Howard – someone has some good early feedback
you normally only talk like this after the result is known not before counting start – AMAZING
even that loser german architect come journo David Albert Speer
exit poll 53/47
Any word on how the voting is going in Bennelong, Ed?
Marginal seats only!!!
53:47
Exit poll 53-47
In line with most polls.
Yes, Jackie Kelly is part of the Channel 7 team. Will she show up?
Sky exit poll from 31 most marginal seats – 53/47 to Labor
Exit poll says Labor wins
equivalent to a national 54/46
where, ruawake?
Pollster says the 56/47 exit poll was taken in 31(?) most marginal seats. Swings will be bigger in safe seats. Margin of error was 2%.
53 – 47
Catch ya later!
wow, that is great, very promising!
Sky guy is practically calling the election for Labor
30 odd seats for labor – howard has lost Bennelong according to exit poll!!!
I can’t believe Sky have called it based on an exit poll – I’d rather wait for the ACTUAL result thanks.
exit poll 53 – 47, 54 – 46 nationally, acccording to the pollster
bennelong ….yahhh… please be true
Mel just said ‘good morning’ to Beatie and Kennet.
Bennelong Lost. Ha Ha Ha
Bennelong gone too according to the exit poll, as is Eden Monaro.
Also says Howard “likely” to have lost Bennelong
“open handed slap”
~an apology does not equal sorry
~non-core promises
~never, ever GST
what is it with these people! Do they think that words do not have meanings?
Let’s not get too excited about a Tasmanian exit poll. Remember, for every two opinions, there is only one vote.
Eden monaro in the bag as well
53% to ALP in Bennelong
58% to ALP in Eden-Monaro
Sorry 53/47
Can I start unwrapping the Rockford’s Black Shiraz?
This exit poll stuff REALLY worries me. The big emotional set up early.. ahead of…
58:42
511 I’ve been stuck at home for most of the day so just depending on feedback here.
Did anyone just hear Baird exhale as they read the exit polls?
digenes, defintly have glass and corckscrew to hand…
Diogenes I have some Peter Rumble Sparkling Shiraz ready to go….
I don’t know about running the streets naked if Howard loses Bennelong, but after 35 years of lapsedness, I’ll go back to my Catholic roots and do the Novena
Is there any exit poll breakdown for wentworth? paterson?
Johnnie,
You have been a very naughty boy. You are now going to get a spanking.
1983 was 53-47, and that was a good night.
Hmmm well done Morgan maybe? and thank you Nielsen.
Re. Sky exit poll
In the words of Zoidberg “Woop woop woop woop woooop!!!”
SLOW DOWN PEOPLE. Can’t keep up with the comments.
I’ll tell you what Steveo, I had a big bet on Rafter once in a wimbledon semi final against Aggasi and it went to five very long sets. (Rafter then went on to lose the final)
Mate I don’t want to go through that again tonight.
I wouldn’t be paying too much attention to an exit poll on Bennelong — other than that it probably indicates a close result …
Howard Hater, I would *so* love to see some dancing in the streets
New thread up.
bennelong lost??? be still my beating heart
AND remember possums … smaller swings in the marginals
On that marginal seat swing, the pollster from Auspoll is saying that Labor should win about 30 extra seats.
omg omg omg omg
“smaller swings in the marginals”
The marginals only need smaller swings. That’s why they are marginal.
KIna is suggesting dome big swings in less marginals
Bruce Baird just got over his constipation
could have been worse centre…you could have bet on rafter against ivanisevic..he lost in the final there in 5 sets…and over 3 days
cheers
I’m glad I stayed home as the Channel 7 exit poll was for Bennelong showing 7% to Maxine
”On that marginal seat swing, the pollster from Auspoll is saying that Labor should win about 30 extra seats.” Presumably that means IF it is accurate that would be the implication.
#
416
Howard Hater Says:
November 24th, 2007 at 5:02 pm
If Newspoll is blatantly proved wrong tonight, David O’Shaunessy should resign.
H.H., sorry to disappoint you, but Newspoll (and Galaxy) Big Business clients aren’t going stop contracting David O’S. to do research after he’s had a go at saving Howard’s hind end. It’s like Scooter Libby coming out of Jail and straight to 5 figure fees for speeches to extreme rightwing think tanks and spots on Foxnews. The power elite always look after their own so that others will continue in the same way to “manufacture consent”.
Skynews have already called Bennelong for Labor (53:47 TPP) on basis of Exit Polls at 5.30 pm AEST…. did I chuckle..
and Eden-Monaro 58:42 TPP
but the panel is saying, “won’t believe it, till we see it”
it’s a trainwreck!!!!!!!
Why is Hawker still spouting so much spin? Is he hoping that some people in WA are watching and still haven’t voted?
Guys,
Can I ask again, what is the record of these exit polls like elsewhere around the world? I want to be excited, and as Mulder used to say:
I want to believe…
The landslide is on!
BetFair’s still on, offering Labor 1.18 / Coalition 4.0
Yes Leek Hawker showing how you win. Never give UP Never give IN.
QUEENSLANDER FOREVER
BIG swing up here 10.5 %
Howard Hater 474
Maybe you’ll be stuck with a by-election if Ruddock wins Berowra, have seen several respectful and serious hints on blogs that his health may not be good.
At 2.30 local time I voted at an inner Brisbane booth (Arch Bevis sitting member), poll official told me there was a 40 minute wait this morning, was about 15 mins this afternoon.
Labs/Greens helpers were positive, Libs looked disheartened, even though the entire length of the front fence of the school was covered with the Lib scare banner.
Was surprised to hear on ABC radio news that Turnbull apparently said if he’s voted out or is not successful at a by-election, he’ll leave politics for good. Too sad! Too bad!!
Not long to go now! Will be closely following the reactions of the Poll Bludger/Possum communities tonight!!
please let it be so…….
On ABC they were saying that word is a that after yesterdays narrowing there has been a divergence today and Labor is feeling good and the Liberals are very worried.
get on Max while there is still time!!
another thread going on – moving over now
Is there a potential vested interest in showing a labor landslide here to get more of a swing back to the libs in WA for the afternoon and the last hours in QLD and SA??
Again, I wouldn’t take the exit polls to seriously on the bennelong result — and I placed a fair bet on Maxine — but howard will be squirming. this was always gonna be the case. how sad!
seven news poll 53/47 ALP/LNP nationwide, sweeeet!
Re 474,
Howard Hater Says:
No, not really
he will resign and force a by election now 
Diogenes – keep the plonk for an hour or so – just get on the ALP on Betfair – again and again. Particularly on Maxine at $3 after seeing 53/47 there. Even just the overall result. No such gift has ever been given to a punter before. It’s money for jam.
537
Diogenes Says:
Can I start unwrapping the Rockford’s Black Shiraz?
Just the one bottle?
Bias potential: Labor voters more willing to participate in exit poll??
I just jumped in and took the $3 on Maxine at Betfair. For those with an account you have to ring up. Bet can’t be made on the net. Bloody stupid rule.
The exit poll people didnt qualify their figures very much
If early indicators are to be trusted this WILL be the last time the Libs dare to tread on the working mans toes
This election has become about 2 IMHO: Wotk choices and the environment.
i hope howard is gone in bennelong,
What is OzPoll’s record like?
They got pretty close in the NSW election Samuel K.
exit poll now headlining on news.com.au, ALP expected to win, PM to lose seat.
Maxine just came in from $3 to $2.10 on Betfair in one hit. I just made it! ALP in to $1.20
im starting to feel a bit more relaxed now
”Maxine just came in from $3 to $2.10 on Betfair in one hit. I just made it! ALP in to $1.20”
Well done! I only got 2:15 on Friday! Then I just want to be able to say I put the bet on if he goes down, and that’s far more important to me