Westpoll brings results from four Perth seats with a combined sample of 1850. Cowan: ALP 47-LIB 53. Stirling: ALP 52-LIB 48. Hasluck: ALP 47-LIB 53. Swan: ALP 50.25-49.75. Graphic to follow.
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Westpoll: mixed bag in Perth marginals
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36 Comments
People polled per seat is 350.
MOE ?
Sounds dodgy
More like 460, Frank.
Status quo in the west then? Is there an overall figure? Might be more useful than 450 per seat.
Wiliam,
I divided 1850 by 5 to get the figure
On these figures, no net gains or losses for anyone, although very close on some of those and very high margin of error
Johnny Wood Duck
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2007/11/22/1195321951483.html?s_rid=www:top5
Did it again dividing it by 4 and got 462.5
A wood duck is technically a species of goose, EC.
It’s a Westpoll, so it’s as likely you could get a similar result by polling 1850 lots of chicken entrails. That said, it’s interesting that Labor look best placed in Stirling of the lot…
Is it just me or on Preferences do those look good for Labor?
Nil gain for Howard. Like it!
But Swan is on a knife’s edge
It is hard to reconcile those Westpoll figures with the repeated Newspoll state breakdown showing close to 50/50.
If the tight marginals in WA are close to 50/50 and given the ALP only holds three other seats ( Perth, Fremantle and Brand) then there must be big swings in some of the remaining eight liberal seats to get to a statewide figure close to 50 50 (or at least one of the Westpoll or the consistent Newspoll state breakdown is wrong).
lurker, supposedly the current Newspoll had a split in wa of 56/44 (Libs/ALP) which confuses things further.
I thought those were hardheads not wood ducks? but haven’t checked the field guide yet
this is getting confusing – duck, goose, swan, chicken entrails? The overall message is maybe those eastern states should just wrap it up early?
cowan and hasluck are odds on with all the bookies. So these polls are rubbish. My strong feeling remains alp 53% tomorrow. Newspoll and Galaxy after firming so big will bounce back to alp slightly. Markets always yo-yo that way. Believe me, I’m a bookie myself. If libs really had a chance betfair wouldn’t have them at 3.65.
No, wysiwyg, that’s a dead set wood duck.
http://www.birdphotos.com.au/australianwoodduckweb/
You’re right EC, hardhead is brown all over. Might have been a better paradigm for JWH tho
Everyone on the eastern states thread seems to have gone to bed. I have to as well (booth duty to do) but a wonderful good evening to the West. Please don’t be offended if I’m hoping Antony calls “Nantucket Sleigh Ride” before your booths close
When does the final Morgan come out? It’ll be interesting to see if Gaz man picks up any late movements…
I always thought WestPolls were a conspiracy … but after seeing these numbers I think I can settle for the cock-up.
There are more than a dozen people over on the @pollpludger site on the ITRC server irc.freenode.net. No Liberal supporters – which is a shame.
The tightness of these seats doesn’t surprise me. What is a little odd is the Hasluck result – the ALP should be doing better there than in the other seats.
I had picked both Swan & Cowan to go a while back but looks like Wilkie may be ok? I hope so; and Stirling looks good for net no change. Goodnight, leave you with best headline today “ALP Set To Win Close Election”.
Those preference allocations look dodgy (too low for Labor given where most of the Green vote is likely to flow). I suspect all of those seats are still up for grabs on the basis of those numbers.
Newspoll and Westpoll are pro-coalition rubbish, read this article:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/howard-needs-a-miracle/2007/11/22/1195321949364.html
and especially note this line:
“But sources from both main parties believed that the Herald poll more accurately reflected what their internal polling had found.”
Rounding to a quarter of one percent in Swan is novel. Presumably they just want to call a winner.
This election day release will be a good test of Westpoll’s standing.
Plenty has been said about bookies odds, but if Westpoll was being replicated in Liberal Party polling, you wouldn’t be seeing these odds at Portlandbet.
Who is right, then…
These are the divs for Coalition:
Cowan $2.35
Hasluck $2.60
Swan $3.50 (and Westpoll have it 50/50!)
Stirling $1.65 is the exception
That preference allocation is completely pants. How do these pollsters sleep at night?
When we reflect on it all, a wood-duck is a bird & when you get a really stale, old one incapable of updating itself, it’s fairly clear that what you have is a dinosaur.
As at 7 am this morning, liberal odds have drifted slightly in 2 of 3 markets I checked. Centrebet 3.50 to 3.65, portland 3.55 to 3.45 and betfair 3.65 to 3.75
Cowan, Hasluck and Swan are all solid alp favs. No money at all for libs there despite westpoll. Money speaks. Morgan’s poll today has it 53.5/46.5. Nuff said.
My gut feeling for a while now has been that Labor would lose Cowan but retain Swan. I’ll see if I felt right tonight. However, on the other end I thought it more likely Labor would win Hasluck than Stirling.
Cowan will be interesting, with Edwards retiring. No matter how big an election win is, there’s usually a seat that goes against the trend. In 2001 it was Labor winning Ballarat. In 2007 it could be the Libs winning Cowan.
It would be thrilling nail-biting stuff if the WA results are required to decide the election tonight. But somehow I doubt it.
Can someone remind if Labor has had any good polling in Cowan?
can someone repost the seat predictions by westpoll that were so WRONG in 2004, often by a large margin
I hope Peter Tinley wins Stirling. It’d be great if all 3 military blokes got up for Labor(the others being Mike Kelly and Rodney Cocks)