| 2007 | 2004 | ||||
| ALP | LIB | ALP | LIB | Swing | |
| Booths | 34,067 50.16 |
33,851 49.84 |
26,919 41.21 |
38,402 58.79 |
8.95 |
| Pre-Poll | 2,802 46.03 |
3,285 53.97 |
1,635 36.21 |
2,880 63.79 |
9.82 |
| Absent | 1,681 52.43 |
1525 47.57 |
1,456 44.16 |
1,841 55.84 |
8.27 |
| Postal | 2363 50.05 |
2358 49.95 |
1,769 41.30 |
2,514 58.70 |
8.75 |
| Provisional | 58 51.79 |
54 48.21 |
180 45.80 |
213 54.20 |
5.98 |
| Total | 40,971 49.94 |
41,073 50.06 |
31,805 40.88 |
46,004 59.12 |
9.06 |
| ALP | 50.0 | ||||
| LIB | 50.0 | ||||
Saturday evening. This post will be used to follow the final stages of the count in Bowman, where at the close of election night counting the ABC computer has Liberal incumbent Andrew Laming and Labor candidate Jason Young locked together on 50.0-50.0. On raw figures Labor is 0.3 per cent ahead, but the Liberals had a relatively stronger performance on absent, pre-poll and postal votes in 2004.
Sunday evening. About a quarter of the pre-poll votes have been counted, and they have so far been swinging to Labor 8.1 per cent compared with 9.3 per cent from the booths. If that 8.1 per cent remains constant through the pre-poll and postal votes, the result will go right down to the wire with a Labor win of 200 votes.
Monday 6pm. I was in error in the previous entry: pre-polls are not in fact swinging differently to booth votes, although Laming is still closing the gap in absolute terms. Today they have added 609 for Laming and 539 for Young, after yesterday’s 590 and 466. Together they have narrowed the gap from 159 votes to 55. Pre-polls are thus following their pattern from 2004 when they favoured the Liberals. Postals and absentee votes however were a lot stronger for Labor, which is why my adjusted figures in red and blue above have Labor in the lead.
Tuesday 3pm. Laming has taken a 27-vote lead after the addition of another 1366 pre-polls, which split 724-642 in his favour. However, the swing to Labor on pre-polls is in fact tracking slightly upwards. Everything depends on whether absents and postals follow the same pattern of relative favourability to Labor from 2004.
Wednesday 5pm. Young has recovered the lead after a strong performance from 1664 postal votes, about a third of the likely total. These have split 856-808 in his favour for a double-digit swing compared with 2004, putting him 21 votes in front. His adjusted lead has increased from 0.1 per cent to 0.2 per cent.
Thursday 4pm. Postal votes continue to trickle Young’s way, a further 1955 breaking 997-958 and increasing his lead to 60 votes.
Friday 3pm. The addition of 1672 absent votes, probably half of the total, has increased Young’s lead by 56 votes.
Monday 3pm. A further 1105 absent votes have increased Young’s lead by 47, while adjustments to booth figures have cost Young seven votes and Laming three. Young currently leads by 159.
Monday 11pm. A curious development: the results from the Capalaba booth have been shifted to Capalaba School, and Capalaba is now listed as having 81 fewer votes for Laming and 121 fewer for Young than Capalaba School did previously (uncanny how every single thing seems to be running against Labor in every single seat). On top of that, a further 903 postal votes have gone 465-438 in Laming’s favour. Combined with minor adjustments in other booths, Young is now just 90 votes ahead. There are still 762 postal and about 400 provisional votes to be counted.
Wednesday 7pm. Truly are the election gods smiling upon the Coalition. A further 2043 pre-poll votes have split 1129-914 in Laming’s favour, giving him 55.3 per cent compared with his previous 53.9 per cent from this source. After a few more booth result adjustments, Laming has now gained a 119-vote lead. Still to come are 1003 absent votes, which might be expected to boost Young by around 40 votes, 627 pre-polls which should boost Laming by about 50, and a handful of postals which should split evenly. Nor can Young expect to gain around 40 votes from provisionals.
Thursday 7pm. Postals: another 425 gives Young a surprise 57-vote break. Pre-polls: a further 429 provide another pleasant surprise for Young, going 217-212 his way. Provisionals: 112 of these, going 58-54 to Young. Re-checking: Laming gains nine votes and Young gains two. That leaves Laming with a lead of just 46 votes. Reportedly still to come: 226 postals and 70 pre-polls. Young needs 58 per cent of them.
Friday 8pm. With 199 postal votes breaking 127-72 to Laming, the prospect of a Young comeback is diminishing. Other than that, only a small number of pre-poll and absent votes added. Booth votes are unchanged.
220 Comments
Go Laming! Hope you can hold on!
As one other blog (can’t remember who) commented: The Libs lose a good minister in Mal Brough but may keep an accident-prone numbnuts in Andrew Laming. Great stuff……..
No Marcus, its worse than that. Brough gone and probabaly Dutton as well while useless hacks like Somlyay and Slipper remain in parliament and bible-bashing lunatics like the guy in Fadden get elected
Speaking of Slipper, wonder if Brough will challenge him for Fisher preselection next time around? That would be a win-win situation all round if Brough got up.
I bet $25 on Labor winning this seat, paying $7. Go $ !
I expect Young to get over the line,this is going to the wire.We’ll wait a long time for the result.Nervous times for all.
Was scutineering pre-poll yesterday
about 55-45 to Laming
Bye Bye Laming
Only 55 votes in it now.
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-13745-155.htm
Laming’s attracting around 55% of pre-poll votes and can expect around 50-50 on postals
This should get him over the line
It looks to me like Laming will get home.
I do not get the analysis, how does Labor get a lead when the postal/prepolls and absentees favors Liberal last election?
William’s analysis is wrong
My analysis is not wrong. The booths have swung 9.2 per cent. The pre-polls (so far) have swung 9.4 per cent. The margin was 8.9 per cent. If all the remaining votes continue to swing around 9.3 cent (e.g. Labor gets 53.5 per cent of absent votes compared with 44.2 per cent last time), which they may or may not do, Labor will win by 0.4 per cent.
The latest update on AEC has Laming in front by 27
ok I understand your analysis, I am not sure I agree with it, but it makes sense, Laming is useless anyway
Okay, I was a little bit wrong: an error in my redistribution adjustment was adding an extra 0.14 to the Labor booth swing.
Laming will be (and always has been) a lame duck. I could not have less respect for a politician. Anyway labor has far more postal votes to be counted than Laming so my money is on Young. And at least he’s an honest and sincere sort of guy. Who wants their local politician to be in opposition? Laming never did anything before, except be rude to people with problems, so he’d get less done now.
When are all results finalized?
If Young has 300 more postal voters that his workers have visited than Laming it makes sense to me Young will catch up and will have an overall win. Thank you God. For people in Bowman it’s as needed as getting rid of Howard.
the analysis is right – if the swing to Young is consistent (as it appears to be going) then Young will sneak in. Laming did extraordinarily well on pre-poll last time but 9% will get Young over the line. Also there were over 3000 Absent votes last time and if they follow the swing (which you would have to assume) that supports Young.
bye bye Laming
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefsByVoteType-13745-155.htm
Young has pulled ahead. The pre-poll votes split 1923-1647 in his favour.
Wait, mistake on my part. That should read 856-808 postal votes in Young’s favour.
two party preferred has Young 21 ahead. the swing on these first postals is 10% backing up the earlier analysis and making my bet on Jason when he was at $1.95 looking pretty good!!!!
bye bye Laming (I love saying that)
The member for denim is on the ropes.
Latest figures has Young 60 in front.
It says he won the postals 1853 – 1766. That is a great result for a challenger.
Kick it home son. Kick it home !!
If Labor wins here – I get muchas plata.
So I hope my statement @11 will be proved wrong.
Now we’re in the home straights looking towards the finish line. My money has to be on Jason Young. And lame Laming claims to be down in Canberra choosing a new leader, who isn’t going to be his! Yet another wrong choice! Hope Turnbull asks for a recount.
the member for distressed denim couldn’t comment to the local paper because he was in canberra – I didn’t know mobile coverage was that bad, nor that no land lines existed that could connect him with far-off Cleveland!!!
I shall say it again
BYE BEY BYE BYE LAMING
I think jason young will eventually win bowman as for laming he is a lectch and a grandstander good for nothing who was all spin, and over ambitious good riddance
Young is pulling ahead – i think he’s got it. That would mean (Yet another potentially defamatory comment deleted – PB) Vasta, Hardgrave and Laming have all got the chop and good riddance. Im in the Bonner electorate and was at Mass on Sunday sitting just behind Ross Vasta’s brother and his family when Senator John Hogg brought the collection plate around – he was wearing a red t-shirt with a yellow happy face on it and the words “Im Happy” – he went straight to the Vastas stuck the plate under their noses and said “My kids gave me this and I definitely am happy!” All of the aisle broke into laughter even the Vastas.
When jason young gets over the line what will laming do????
1. Run For Mayor???
2. Go back to Medicine SNIP: Defamatory statement deleted – PB
3. SNIP: Another defamatory statement deleted. Please watch your tongue, Thorny Mick – PB
4.call for recount and then if unsucessfull off for a court challenge?
if could get a bet on id pick all 4
Jason Young, the ALP candidate has pulled ahead by 116 votes. I hope he pulls through. Potentially defamatory comment deleted – PB.
Perhaps Laming could go back to his old job! Now was that sweeping mines in Afghanistan or performing abortions in London? Lovely choice.
AEC update, Dec 3 11:33 am
Young (Labor) now leading by 163 (up by 47 from 116).
This increase from counting of another 1105 absent votes which split 576:529 to Young.
William,
Commen 32 goes very close to being libelous….
As does comment 30
Not sure what you mean about comment 30, Shane-o. While I have you, allow me to rub your nose into comment 13.
Oh, I see now. Acceptable political rhetoric in my view, but I’ve removed the offending word just in case.
The trend continues in Jasons favour, and the booth recounts have no impact
My prediction on Sunday night was Labor by 58 votes, based on extrapolation of 2004 voter turnout in the various categories. the higher enrolment numbers (and subsequent voter turnout) warrants a re-assessment and I now say Young by 150.
BYE BYE LAMING BYE BYE 9whistled)
Yes, yes, I consider my nose thoroughly rubbed
Thanks for removing those comments.
Young by less than 50
yes the people of Bowman must be proud to have removed a well educated articulate member who spent his spare[holiday]time doing humanitarian work overseas for a planted E.T.U. official who was very noticable by his lack of campaigning on his own right and thoughts[if he ever had any]
To suave re comment 33. At least his productivity at hospitals was more useful than merely changing light bulbs.
According to the AEC site after the update Dec 4 12:21 (AEDT), there are 991 more absent votes, 2539 more pre-poll votes and 1130 more postal votes left to count.
Projecting the tallies based on the current splits, this will give Laming a net gain of 133 votes. The large number of pre-polls is where Laming gains.
Young is currently ahead by 154 votes. So this could go very close.
Left out of this analysis are the two unknowns of 1) the 1049 provisionals (not able to project how they will split) and 2) possible further rejections of votes by scrutiny.
i think Callum is spot on. my updated prediction (at comment 39) was based on the assumption that all pre-polls had been counted. As pre-polls is the only area laming has led, callums prediction looks on the money and my original prediction of Young by 58 votes looks on the mark too.
As for Noodles and their cutting retorts – call the ambulance my sides are splitting.
idiot
Redlands Rod said: “idiot”
Now now Rod, name calling will get you nowhere.
What’s interesting though is Young’s claim on his website.
“I am a member of the Queensland Government’s Workplace Health and Safety Manufacturing Industry Sector Standing Committee.” – http://www.bowmanlabor.com
My research say that, yes, he is a current member of that committee.
So, wouldn’t this be an office for profit under the crown?
Interesting….
I am very sorry if i have caused Redlands Rod to have an anatomical explosion.
But Shane-O brings up a very interesting point indeed re A.E.C. regulations.
It is interesting, yes – I would assume it is an honorary position and not subject to any remuneration and therefore not an office for profit under the crown. i would also assume that some-one in the Liberal Party, noodles, would have checked well before now and in fact Young would have been named along with the others in the last week of the election by Malcolm Turnball – don’t you??
I suppose the Libs would have raised this as an issue already….
Unless they were keeping it as a trick up their sleeve?
Ah Rod, my favourite Redlander….wrong again.
Under the Workplace Health and Safety Act 1995, Division 7, Section 64, members of this committee are entitled to be paid the remuneration and allowances fixed by the Minister. The WHS Act 1995 makes no provision for automatic resignation of the position if the member nominates for state or federal parliament.
Mr Young didn’t resign did he?
Can anybody say by-election?
And today’s postals have thrown it wide open again!
My projections now have Laming winning by 27!
I had so much fun this time a by-election looks good! i dont believe the Workplace health and Safety Act requires that anyone (including WHSQ) update their websites Shane-o but I appreciate your research. that is where turnbulls rubbish statements about 12 labor candidates came unstuck.
Also, does “entitled” mean you actually get paid anything and does this have relevance to an office for profit etc etc? I’m not sure but I think you’ll let me know.
If by some long bow your research about it has validity some Liberal hack should be getting a pasting for not raising it earlier.
I think its the pre-polls that have brought it back (Ordinary, Postal and Absent votes have all favoured Young) but i don’t disagree it is going to be extremely close – my original call of Young by 58 looks good!
Yes, and if I’d been working for Laming I’d be pretty fed up with his lack lustre performance. There is no way this bloke?> would ever get pre selected again. A sitting member should have been able to improve his position. Instead he’s been done like a turkey and the swing against him is far greater than the national average.
Yes Doodles, a guy who understands and cares about people and their problems, add to that a true sincerity and you have Jason Young. Give me a practical person any day, not someone who changes their job every week and sticks at nothing, who however many times he meets you never seems to remember that he has.
i am interested in callums numbers (comment 44) from the AEC site – 1049 Provisionals?? I don’t see anywhere that the AEC says how many votes are left in any particular category to count. Last time there were less than 400 Provisional – where are these votes from and why such a big increase?? any thoughts??
Update at 6.51 Tuesday by AEC- Young ahead by 90
can we get a definitive number of how many left to count??
Rod,
here’s the link to the page detailing votes yet to count:
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionDecScrutinyProgress-13745-155.htm
And also Poodle, Laming tried to claim credit for work that in fact belonged to State Labor anyway and noticeably he dropped all association with Liberals and John Howard in the first week of the campaign. Young did not have to drop the leader of the Labor party as he was proud to be part of a winning team and pleased to talk about Labor party policy. With strong leadership he did not have to make up local issues and policies of his own.
I WENT TO TWO FORUMS THAT LAMING WAS INVITED TO PARICIPATE IN, ONE ABOUT WORK CHOICES AND THE OTHER AT INDIGISCAPES ABOUT THE ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE.
ANDREW LAMING DID NOT COME. HE DID NOT TURN UP. ALL THE OTHER CANDIDATES WERE THERE.
HE DID NOT RESPOND TO A QUESTIONNAIRE ABOUT CLIMATE OR ONE FROM THE GET UP ORGANISATION?
WHO KNOWS WHAT HE THINKS BUT I SUPPOSE HE HOPES WE’RE ALL IDIOTS. WELL WE’RE NOT.
thanks callum
they are massive increases on last time for each of those categories – any thoughts why??
I’ve prepared a results to date spreadsheet with projected totals based on the current splits.
Link below should take you there:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pohWYDTarjPB0KDGQkQStDQ&gridlines=false
Certainly a big increase in pre-poll and provisional votes since 2004 Rod. No, I don’t know why. I too would welcome explanations, especially with the pre-polls favouring the Liberal candidate so much.
The spreadsheet is worrying, here’s to hoping the second half of the pre-polls split more favourably at more like 48.5/51.5 or that the provisionals swing by more than the electorate average
Only a small number of the provisional votes are actually going to be counted. You cast a provisional vote if your name has been crossed off already and you swear you haven’t voted, or when you raise a stink at the polling booth about not being on the roll. In either case you lodge a “provisional” vote which doesn’t get counted unless you establish your bona fides. Most of them turn out to be people who simply weren’t on the roll and are thus ineligible. Look at the results from Swan: 1469 envelopes received, 1099 rejected, 134 counted, 236 presumably to be adjudicated.
And following the overnight correction, my projections have
Laming by 80
Following this morning’s counting, I direct you to comment 13
I’ve updated my spreadsheet:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pohWYDTarjPB0KDGQkQStDQ&gridlines=false
With Laming’s improved split on the last batch of pre-polls the projected margin is now Laming by 126 votes. Still close.
To The Speaker and Redlands Rod.
Dont try to claim on those betting tickets just yet. Interesting figures coming in.
This is extremely close.
SoSo it is Noodles with an N.
How on earth is Lamming now 60 in front?
To SoSo re comment #58.
I am so sorry, I was under the misapprehension that we went to the Polls to vote for a LOCAL representative who would give us a voice at Federal level for any issues that we may have.
Under your understanding we should have merely voted Nationwide on a two party basis. I am happy to have a representative who can actually think for themselves instead of merely following party directives. I am sorry but I think local issues should be important at all levels of Government. Maybe if we had a television sports commentator to call upon that would give us some much needed political credibility at a State level as well.
Laming stretches further ahead – now 125 votes in front.
Projections (excluding provisionals) now say a Laming victory by 140
Dear Spoodles
If Laming had been so excited about what he was going to do for us at a local level why didn’t he bother to turn up to two forums to tell us. No, this bloke is only concerned with “me, me, me” and is not interested in helping people with problems. I’ll say it again , he has done nothing for this electorate and he will do even less if he wins in opposition. If he wins there will be a by-election within 18 months.
*smirks*
My spreadsheet linked to in #67 now updated with results from AEC at 2:17 pm.
Another batch of pre-polls counted with the split to Laming being slighty less, percentage wise, than last time.
Laming now leads by 125 with a projected final margin of 140 votes.
Did anyone put money on Bowman being the most marginal seat after the election?
What about Solomon…?
My predictions are that Labor will win Solomon by 9 votes!
Whichever way the result goes I thank William,Callum, Redlands Rod and Shane-O for interesting and intelligent input and analysis on this matter. As an OLDER voter it is indeed refreshing and encouraging for all of our futures that we have a generation of clear thinkers coming through the ranks[whichever political persuasion you may hold]. Please all keep up your interest after this election is forgotten as all of our futures depend on it.
My poor SoSo,
Perhaps your good man Jason could direct you to the local dyslexic support group as you seem to have trouble with your spelling.
By the way you didn’t happen to attend the open forum at the Donald Simpson center at Cleveland when both candidates were asked unannounced questions from the floor, Jasons stumbling responses were priceless. It almost seemed as if he needed to know the questions before he attended.But that would be cynical.
As for a by-election where did that come from.
Noodles,
Thanks for the kind message but those is glass houses….
Your grammar is atrocious!
Isn’t that atroshus.
(Cough) … not over yet …
Correction to my comment at #74: last batch of pre-polls actually split slightly *better* for Laming which is why his projected margin has increased slightly.
Hardly an open forum old Doodles when you had to register and rsvp to attend. In fact so closed that even a senator was not allowed to speak and so obviously rigged even some paticipants were embarrassed and changed their vote. Why else was there a 9% swing to the Labor Party and Bowman has become the least safe seat in the country for the Liberals (if Laming is still a member of the Liberals?).
*giggles*
I think a few early mornings on Old Cleveland Road has sent Soso a little stir crazy!
Who would want to hear (demoted) Senator McLucas’ dribble anyway?
I would have thought that an R.S.V.P. would ensure that the forum wouldn’t be may i say stacked as it was a day-time week day occasion where only people with a genuine interest would attend. As for safe seats …..after the last week and a half one thing should be blatently obvious to both sides of the political fence….THERE ARE NO SAFE SEATS IF YOU DONT’T LISTEN TO PEOPLE!!!!
By the way you forgot to say if you attended the said event.
P.S. keep working on the spelling.
Must be wonderful for Andy to have such a sopportive mummy like Noodles. I notice you agree it was not an open forum. A working day in working time, if you understand the meaning of the word, is hardly a time many people can attend.
Well,another useless Liberal joke survives.Poor Bowman!!!
He wasn’t much chop whilst Howard ruled the Tory roost,he’ll be even less value now that Rudd runs the show.
Roll on the next poll,and Bowman will shift back into the Labor fold,where it has been in past times.
Work hard Laming,you’ll need to.LOL!!!!
sorry I’ve been working all day and missed all the interesting discussion -hmmm
Pre-polls have certainly slammed young all the way through – worth looking at after the election I think.
at 119 the difference is certainly do-able but always a hard ask for the one who is behind as laming has known until yesterday. still think my bet is live though!!
Callum – if there were 5618 postals issued and they have until Friday to be returned shouldn’t the “number to be counted” be higher? there is a difference of about 700 and I wouldn’t expect anywhere near that many, but I would think some would come in. what do you think?
Noodles – I suspect SoSo doesn’t think Laming will stick it out for a full term , dilettante that he is, and that will cause a by election.
This evening’s AEC update at 6:27 pm just some adjustment to ordinary vote tallies. Laming down by 4, Young up by 2 and informals up by 5.
I’ve updated my spreadsheet with these figures.
Rod, for my Votes figures for the non-ordinaries I’m using ‘Envelopes Received’ minus ‘Rejected at Preliminary Scrutiny’. Yes, in the case of postals there might still be some received before Friday but I don’t know how many so I’m just using the figure we have now. BTW, I’m just a rank amateur at this.
I am repeatedly having to delete or edit comments relating to the “printgate” affair which are plainly defamatory. Suave was the most recent offender.
Asking for an inquiry into the actions of the federal police is defamatory? How and why?
“Printgate ” has become like Basil in Fawlty Towers “don’t mention the war.” This is biased journalism on your part William.
thanks callum – you are doing great. i do my figures on the back of an envelope while i sit here. the large number of pre-polls (and the consistent support for laming in them) is what affected my earlier predictions. still going to be close i think!
As for noodles, and other liberal supporters – seeing Laming is such a fantastic local representative and outstanding politician I hear he will be parachuted into one of the very few safe state seats and be made Liberal leader in QLD!!! what a great outcome that would be for Queensland and Bowman.
Suave, your comment included a statement that any reasonable person would interpret as meaning that a certain person who has not been charged and isn’t going to be did in fact commit a criminal offence. Since you obviously can’t be trusted to behave sensibly, I don’t see I have any choice but to ban you.
Hear hear!
One thing that is a constant in politics across the country….
The more your opposition hates you, the better you’re doing.
Laming has withstood a dodgy investigation, a $1.5 million local Labor campaign funded by the ETU (No Ticket No Start Pty Ltd) and an active YR@W campaign with paid local organisers.
Despite these setbacks, he looks set to claim victory.
Pretty impressive if you ask me
Methinks Shane-o is really Andrew Laming
I don’t have the energy!
Latest AEC update at 12:38 pm today.
Simply more finessing of the ordinary votes tallies.
Laming up by 2, Young up by 9, Informals down by 7. Total ordinary vote count up by 4.
My updated spreadsheet showing Laming ahead by 112, with a projected final margin of 117.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pohWYDTarjPB0KDGQkQStDQ&gridlines=false
This projection does not factor in the provisionals as we do not know how many will be accepted and how they will split.
Sorry, projected margin of 127 not 117.
They’ve also received (found?) some more pre-polls which I’ve added in, but no more postals.
I see Bowman is tightening up again (at 3.19PM) , with the gap back down to 68 votes!
(Spreadsheet updated.)
Yes, that was a very good update for Young.
A batch of 192 absent votes counted with 114 going to Young, 70 to Laming and 8 informal.
It’s a battle now between the remaining absent votes (favouring Young) and pre-polls (favouring Laming). Also how many provisionals are accepted and how they split is going to be crucial.
Word from the mountain is that there are actually significantly fewer absentees left to count (around 200). Not sure how this is the case but my guess would be that a significant number have been ruled out.
Further, I have learnt that there will be approximately 110 provisionals to count with the remainder having been ruled out.
3.38 update has gap at 55!!!!
who is this new rod?
3.38pm – 55 votes in it !!
41 votes and closing.
Young is storming down the outside !!
That last update was again absent votes. Not quite as stunning as the last batch but still narrowed the gap. Of the 249, 127 went to Young, 114 to Laming and 8 informal.
I can’t keep up!
4:03pm update was a batch of 229 pre-polls votes that split, against the trend, to Young. Good news indeed for Labor.
Split was 120 Young, 106 Laming and 3 informals.
I just wish we’d get the same regular updates for McEwen! Nothing new on the AEC board since 12.21.
Given the ups and downs in some categories of votes in McEwen at different times , I can see a recount coming on there.
Anything similar in Bowman?
shane-o
how many pre-polls left to count?
This is freaking me out. Has anyone [particularly William] seen a poll that is so swinging at this late stage.
Poor Callum will need a holiday after all of his good hard work updating for us.
To me there is only one Rod and that is Redlands Rod. No pretenders allowed.
I can only rely on the AEC website for pre-polls which says 626 left on them
My calculation from the AEC website is that there are only 395 pre-polls left to count.
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionDecScrutinyProgress-13745-155.htm
Wow this is exciting! its like watching a melbourne cup in slow motion!
Sorry, I missed an update
I’ve done my projections and (excluding provisionals) they’re now saying Laming by 43
…unless the latest swing to young is maintained…
got to try!
Sorry about the name, Redlands and Noodles, but I’m Rod just about everywhere else from Crikey to Possum and beyond. I’d get confused if I became Jim or somesuch after more than half a century!
Looking at Bowman from my Mexican McEwen perspective I reckon those provisionals are going to come into serious play in Bowman as well as at my end of the continent .
Shane , I reckon projections based on vote flow in particular categories become almost meaningless by the time you get down to this sort of margin, because such minor variations can have such big implications.
Cheers
Rod (Not the Redlands variety)
I agree with that last comment by Rod that projections on such a small number of remaining votes become almost meaningless. I’ve kept them in my spreadsheet but only for past consistency.
This has been an instructive count to watch
Word from the AEC in Cleveland is that there are approximately…
226 postals left
110 provisionals and
70 pre-polls
If this is correct, one has to ask why the AEC website is so out of whack???
New AEC update at 5:21.
Pre-poll tallies have changed.
Another 106 to Laming, 97 to Young and 7 informal.
Pre-poll total vote has also increased 6413 from 6352.
End result: Laming now ahead by 50.
50 votes – that just one neat bundle put in the wrong pile
Still no sign of the provisionals in the latest AEC posted figures, and a few hundred absents left too.
If Shane-o’s word of mouth on votes left is correct it would be interesting to know what the actual lead was (and to whom) at that point.
Cheers
Rod (not the Redlands one)
this is excrutiating – and i dont mean there being 2 rods! no offence meant rod I’m happy to share – keep us informed about Mceen.
earlier comments about flows being meaningless when we get to these tiny margins are spot on
What were all your predictions straight after polling day??
I called it on Sunday at Young by 58
others???
Latest AEC update at 6:08 pm.
117 provisionals now counted.
58 to Young, 54 to Laming and 5 informal.
Laming now ahead by 46.
my squirrels tell me a vote has gone back to laming – lead now 57
checking of booth results is still going on tonight – might be some small changes later
Bowman looked gone for Labor last night, now it looks like it’ll come down to the swing on provisionals – if it can get up to the overall swing for the seat, Young might just squeak in by 10 or 20 votes. If not, Laming might hold on by a similar margin.
Young needs to win the provisionals by a couple percent and get just one good batch of absentees above the swing or a better than average set of prepolls that break even.
Come on, one more Labor seat in Brisbane! This is getting exciting
47 of course – sorry to get your hopes up noodles.
maybe shane-o will have a scrutineer report for us later tonight?
spot on Oliver – squirrels tell me the booth checking is favouring Young by a couple per booth – i know that sounds odd but thats what i hear. that times the 15 booths left to check we are at square one and your call comes well into play, more so on young’s side than the other bloke
exciting indeed
AEC update 6:57.
Slight adjustments in pre-poll tallies.
Laming up by 1, Young down by 2.
Thus Laming’s lead now 49.
I suspect the provisionals counted early are all the ones that have been allowed.
That would mean it’s down to the 549 absents, 246 pre-polls and 241 postals left to count (on current AEC figures).
thats how i understand it callum – plus the booth checks
now changed to 50!
Libs seem to have gone very quiet tonight – celebrating prematurely maybe?
Probably all depressed about it still hanging in the air when they thought they had it in the bag, Redlands R.!
McEwen was sitting on 77 last time I checked. Seems to be a fair bit of “housekeeping” going on in McEwen with minor changes in several categories of votes but a fair batch of absentees (which have been favouring Labor) outstanding. 90% of the provisionals there seem to have been given the boot, at least provisionally.
I get the feeling that we may have quite a while (I’m thinking recounts and disputed returns) before we get the real answer on these two.
Cheers
Rod (the McEwen one)
Glad to see you missed me guys.
Reconfirming that Absentees and now provisionals are exhausted.
There are about 60 or so pre-polls left
and about 220 postals plus whatever arrives in tomorrow’s mail.
So Young needs about 68% of the remaining votes to break even.
A tough ask…
There still seem to be minor adjustments occurring to the booth results, so I presume rechecking is still being done?
Quite right
I know you guys all stay up very late at night but some of us start work very early. Any chance of morning updates as to the state of the Nation. Anything interesting to report from your end as well Rod[McEwen]
From what i hear it could be all over. Now who is going to claim and who is going to concede. Maybe a recount to prolong everybody’s agony. What say your numbers Callum.
Are all the Labor guys still in bed, or do they just have nothing to say.
liberals claim victory
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/bowman-mp-back-from-the-brink/2007/12/07/1196812976664.html#
still haven’t heard if votes are final yet but it looks to be over (for now)
AEC update 11:37 am.
Ordinaries unchanged.
Absents: Laming +4, Young +0.
Provisionals unchanged.
Pre-polls: Laming +20, Young +27, Informals +6.
Postals: Laming +127, Young +72, Informals +1.
Result: Laming ahead by 102.
The change in postals confirms the ABC story. However, the AEC website still shows a significant number of Absent votes (545) and Pre-poll votes (194) to be counted.
I’m not a member of any political party and don’t have any inside information. All along I’ve only been reporting on the AEC updates. Not having any other reliable source I will wait until I see figures on the AEC website that show either one of the candidates can not now win.
Correction, Brisbane Times story.
very drustrating it hasnt changed since this morning – i assume its done and dusted. waiting to hear from my squirrels
Been celebrating for most of the day guys so apologies for not updating.
All fresh votes are exhausted with only a dribble of postals maybe arriving this afternoon (less than ten).
Laming is 102 in front with only a few booths left to be re-counted.
Labor may call for a full recount.
I always say “Never Give Up”
But in this case, Jason Young definitely should….
You beauty!
with so few votes in it why would jason give up?? would you ifit was the other way around? I doubt it.
Enjoy – while you can…..
Ah, Shane-O, I’ve been following elections for too long to imagine that a situation as close as the one in Bowman is worth celebrating by the Libs just yet. Lemmings have a shocking habit of falling off the cliff at the last moment, you know! Just by the way, isn’t Laming one of the Qld guys who was having serious trouble with rushing “into print” a while back?
If elected , I’m sure he’ll make the most of three years in opposition, but if this is the best he can manage this time around he won’t be there next time. Probably time he made yet another career change, don’t you think?
Cheers
Rod
2007 represent a high water mark for Labor in Bowman
This is the best you’ve got, you threw everything you had at us and still couldn’t get over the line.
I don’t know anything about printing but if you’re referring to a Federal Police investigation,,,
It’s a matter of public record that the Labor party instigated that investigation.
An ALP Member led the investigation, an ALP member magistrate signed the warrants and it wouldn’t surprise me if the genesis of it all was members of the local ALP and in the view of hurting Laming beforew the election.
Still didn’t work!
Noodles asks: Anything interesting to report from your end as well Rod[McEwen]
Bailey is in front by 32 votes with about 500 (mainly absentees) outstanding, Noodles. Should know the result of the count some time today. Wouldn’t be at all surprised to see a recount here.
Cheers
Rod
Enjoyed the coverage and nail biting finish thanks a lot to all who participated on here. Small clue to Labor guys as an undecided seeing union sponsored demonstations on streets of Cleveland “Before” Lamming was cleared of “charges” got him my vote something smelled in the “utopian state” .
Bill
Dream on Shane-O
you aint seen nothing yet and as for printgate I can see history being rewritten already, just like someone else’s CV!
bill – the protests were always about Work Choices and lamings support for that legislation. Apart from his famous “Pizza” speech he never once engaged in the debate despite numerous invites and opportunities.
Quick note before I head out.
AEC update today at 6:41 pm.
Laming’s lead now 94.
Following Noodles request, and just in case anyone hasn’t heard, Labor have pulled the rug out from under Howard minister, Fran Bailey’s feet with a 7 vote win in McEwen.
Rob Mitchell returned from the dead by picking up enough to win from a 90 vote plus deficit over the last couple of days of counting, all from the last few hundred absentee, Pre Poll and Postals.
Good luck in Bowman, RR!
Cheers
Rod (from McEwen)
Bye Bye Jason Young
Bye Bye Jacquline King
Bye Bye Ross Franks
Bye Bye Alan Hicks
Bye Bye Your Rights at Work Pty Ltd
Correction:
Bye Bye No Ticket No Start Pty Ltd
I note the seat hasn’t been declared yet.
I think you’ll find it isn’t bye bye – just au revoir shane-o and andrew
ps: go mcewen!!
Bye Bye Weightman
Bye Bye Howard government, WorkChoices, GWB über alles, John Howard, Peter Costello, “Freaky” Downer , Fran Bailey, that bigot in Menzies, and the perks of office, Shane-O.
Hello, a return to some semblance of sanity on most of the things that actually matter to most of us and a front bench with some real competence and ability!
Cheers
Rod
Mmm. I see there are still several hundred absentees, and a couple of hundred pre-polls to go in Bowman according to AEC. Gee that reminds me of McEwen when the Libs thought they were home and hosed!
Cheers
Rod
All fresh votes are exhaustedthere is no further counting other than booth recounts.
Don’t hold your breath.
Though on second thoughts…..do
Don’t worry Shane-E, I’m sure the official figures must be wrong as you say.
Those recounts must be worrying though. Fran is going for a full recount in McEwen of course. The various booth recounts there cost her dearly.
Cheers
Rod
As the Libs aren’t prepared to accept the result in McEwen, I guess Labor won’t in Bowman either.
Heck, they might both take them to the CDR! I know which side I’d be backing for both seats if it comes to a re-election!
Cheers
Rod
good to see shane-o is taking such a mature approach.
of course we wont concede until it is final as you know you wouldn’t. stop this high and mighty rubbish – it just reinforces peoples opinions of your lot as arrogant a-holes.
you are going to get flogged again in Cleveland, Redlands and Capalaba and many other seats around Queensland- do you seriously think the vote so far represents a resurgence of the Liberals in the Redlands?? when you have nearly a 9% swing against you???
dream on shane-o and andrew, dream on
As Ferny suggested about Glen in another thread, RR. I think Shane-eieio is also suffering from stage one Kübler-Ross
Yes, I feel some (mmm, though , if I’m honest, not a whole lot of ) sympathy for the poor lad , having gone through something similar in 1975 and 1996. I suspect some may well feel the same again some time around 2020 or so when the Greens cream the Labor Party for their first stint in Government!
Heck, the poor lad may even be a Qld Liberal Party member! If so, we should, of course, be extending our heart felt condolences (heh, heh, heh!)
Yes indeed Mcewen Rod- I am led to believe there are still 5 or 6 active members of the Qld Liberals, and 2 or 3 of them active in our part of the world.
I am saving my analysis of the apparently major benefit afforded by the donkey vote to Eeyore Laming for a not to distant date…..
stay tuned
See you in Cleveland in 09!
Get ready for fun!
You’re on!
AEC Updated: 10/12/2007 12:23:44 PM
Laming’s lead cut to 87.
What or who the hell is No Ticket no Start Pty.Ltd.
Is this a joke [that i don't get].
Can somebody fill me in.
Happy to provide some enlightenment here noodles…
No Ticket No Start Pty Ltd is the name of the trading arm of the Electrical Trades Union.
During the campaign, it was exposed that they were providing significant funds to Jason Young’s campaign in Bowman.
One hates to think what kind of national agenda an organisation with a name like “No Ticket No Start” might push upon those MPs it “owns”.
Estimates suggest that the Young campaign in Bowman cost well over $1 million, the majority of which came from this “No Ticket No Start Pty Ltd.”
Shane-O,
With regards to your comments suggesting that Phil Weightman will lose his seat of Cleveland, you must be kidding yourself. I am a swinging voter who lives in Mr Weightman’s seat and I must say after watching his performance since his election in 2006, I find it very hard to accept that anyone would be foolish enough to vote him out (and that isn’t taking the state of the QLD Liberal Party).
I think that it is very clear that the QLD Liberals are out for at least two more elections after their recent performance. Especially with the game of Lucky Dip that was played to elect Mr McArdle. How do you expect people to take you and your party seriously when you can’t even act sensibly to elect a leader?
If you and your mates are looking to play more games in the coming weeks, I have a 4 year old son and he reccomends that you play the following two games: Duck, Duck, Goose and Pin The Tail On The Donkey. (Pin The Tail On The Donkey, can be altered to: Pin The Election Defeat On The Liberal Leader, so that will last for after the election as well)
I was honestly considering to vote for you people last State Election, but after watching your leader’s performance throughout the campaign, I was happy to vote Labor.
Get a life
Sandra
Correction: first Paragraph, last line: (and that isn’t taking the state of the QLD Liberal Party into account)
Sandra
We’re coming for him Sandra
Sure you are and I guess you think you’re going to win the election as well?
Ignore him Sandra and hopefully he will go away. ps: I think your suggestion of “Pin the Tail on the Donkey” is a great idea considering the value the donkey vote has given the liberal candidate in this election – and the last election too for that matter.
Spot on Rod
Shane-o writes:
We’re coming for him Sandra
Somehow, Shane, I don’t think the sight of 8 pairs of white sand shoes, all on the wrong feet, and marching in sixteen different directions, is going to strike a great amount of fear into the Labor Party in Queensland come the next election!
Cheers
Rod (the McEwen one)
I’m serious about the impact of the donkey vote – particularly, I saw stacks of pre-poll votes that went straight down the ballot paper delivery to laming. Interesting Shane-o hasn’t commented on any of my earlier posts about this.
i am going to have a real good look at this aspect but there is no doubt in my mid that the donkey vote contributed a lot more than the current (as at 6.25 tonight) difference of 81 votes or 0.05%.
I’m not sure whether to call Andrew Eeyore or Francis the Talking Mule – any other thoughts out there?
Shane-o is one of those sad,sad Liberals now twiddling their thumbs not knowing what to do.He’ll eventually get over it,and move on.But until then we have to put up with the tosser.Some losers never know how to move on,he’s one of them,just tragic!!!!
Somehow, when I think of Shane-O and the Qld Libs these days , the following are the other parties that come to mind:
Australia Party
Australian Labor Party (Anti-Communist)
Australian Party
Australian Progressive Alliance
Centre-Line Party
City Country Alliance
Commonwealth Liberal Party
Communist Party of Australia (1920 – 1991)
Country and Progressive National Party
Curtin Labor Alliance
Deadly Serious Party
Democratic Labor Party (1955-78)
Free Trade Party
Illawarra Workers Party
Lang Labor Also known as Non-Communist Labor Party
Liberal and Country League
Liberal Movement
Liberal Reform Group
Liberal Reform Party
National Alliance (WA)
Natural Law Party
No Aircraft Noise
New LM
National Action
National Socialist Party of Australia
Nationalist Party of Australia
Party! Party! Party!
Progressive Party
Protectionist Party
Reform the Legal System
SA First
Single Tax League
State Labor Party (NSW non-Lang)
Sun Ripened Warm Tomato Party
Surprise Party
Unite Australia Party
United Australia Party
United Tasmania Group
(from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_political_parties_in_Australia )
Cheers
Rod
Nonetheless, despite our hopelessness.
We still beat you in Bowman…
Hey Rod,
LOL!!!!
The Tosser thinks we care.
Who won the election,and who now gets to see what the drill was with Laming et al over that other business to see if anything else comes to mind
Now,now boys and girls,this is all getting a bit too personal.
I agree with Sandra about the State Libs playing childhood games but it is not much more depressing than Pete and Pete in a skirt[Anna] playing King in the castle. Let’s face it we don’t have any current competent politicians in this State on either side. We now even have the awful thought that “Honest” Mike Kaiser may well raise his ugly head again.
By the way Shane-O this “No Ticket no Start Pty.Ltd.” all sounds a bit behind closed doors type of a concern and indeed quite worrying.
By the way Redlands Rod, Equinely speaking Phar Lap may be more appropriate as i see it. I think you may be overvaluing the so called Donkey influence when you take in to account the massive influence that the Unions and the Greens had on Jason’s final tally.
I note that checking is continuing – where there is an electoral office process there is hope.
A couple of points noodles and shane-o:
1. the funding of the campaign is public knowledge and is subject to the electoral laws on disclosure. as your candidates funding is. no news there.
2. the unions and the greens campaigned in full accordance with the law as any organisation can. the greens are a legitimately constituted political party who preferenced the ALP. I could similarly suggest that real estate agents, family first , one nation and donkeys had an impact on the liberal vote. is there some sinister conspiracy you are alluding to?
3. lastly i notice that the liberal candidate for bowman is making no apologies for (if elected) spending as much time holding the state labor government to account as on his federal duties – don’t you people ever learn? you are on the nose big time could be construed as misuse of commonwealth funds in that he is planning to use tax payer funded time to campaign for the state liberal party!!!
I hope he campaigns for those losers
Redlands Rod– no conspiracy was alluded to i was merely suggesting that it was a long bow to draw suggesting that “Donkeys” was what got Laming over the line when you take into account the extremely robust campaigning by the Unions and also the [ legitimate] support of the Greens.
Re your third comment. That is a bit rich when you look at the input to the campaign not only of our local State member in the Bowman campaign but the State Labor party and all State members as a whole.
I actually found it quite intriguing that when Rudd won he was introduced to the public and the media by Anna Bligh.
Good point Noodles
Written and authorised by Phil Weightman was seen on everything J.Young distributed.
I wonder if Redlands Rod would construe this as a misuse of taxpayer funds?
Not at all – he was the campaign director
what percentage is generally assigned to the donkey vote- half a percent?? 400 votes. quarter of a percent 200 votes.
seems pretty clear to me
Down to 55 , now, I see. The margin seems to be closing at a similar rate to McEwen, with a couple of hundred Pre-Polls outstanding.
Probably get closer, too, the way the late Pre-Poll counts have been going! And with Fran Bailey setting the precedent for recounts in this election it may get even more interesting still! I guess if it lingers much longer there won’t be time for a recount before the break. May well still be a few overly nervous tummies when the Christmas Pud arrives, I reckon!
Cheers
Rod
Whoops, sorry, that should have read 64, not 55.
Cheers
Rod
Double standards, Redlands Rod, Double standards
Young’s just called for a recount.
I wonder if he’ll get the same criticism from those who got stuck in to Fran Bailey for requesting a recount.
not at all – its a voluntary position. not like Lamings declaration of how he is going to spend his time as our elected representative.
who’s complained about bailey on this forum??
I am sure Laming would ask for a recount if it was the other way around.
Noodles Re: Comment 190 regarding Anna Bligh
I think that this shows just how good the relationship between the Federal and State Governments will be. Nothing to be looked down on at all.
DENIED!
http://www.redland.yourguide.com.au/news/local/political/recount-decision-pending/1144481.html
Hahahaha!
“Fresh eyes!”
Hahahaha!
a touch premature don’t you think Shane-o? – look what happened in Mcewen
as i said earlier -wherever there is an AEC process there is hope!!
certainly is interesting…. and excruciating
Just heard that the AEC have rejected Jason Young’s appeal and that Bowman will be declared on Thursday.
If that is the case Shane-O – congratulations
HI HO! HI HO!
Its off to the Court of Disputed Returns we go…..
Lawyers funded by No Ticket No Start Pty Ltd!
better than by jailbird pornographers, drug dealers, kidnappers and torturers, amongst others
Nice one Redlands Rod, perhaps you should try basing your postings in fact rather than fantasy.
Declaration’s at 2pm today! See you there!
I am reminded of post #13….
based on a lunch at Sirromet – fact pal.
on the analysis you mention – the much larger number of pre-poll votes and the donkey vote are what did it!!! and some extreme margins in mobile booths….
cant make the declaration unfortunately – enjoy
I love how you blame a variety of factors on the ALP’s loss in Bowman.
Quite simply, this is the only seat Labor couldn’t win out of the target seats of Bonner, Moreton, Bowman, Petrie, Longman etc..
This was despite Laming being targetted by a dodgy police investigation and a $1 million + ETU funded campaign machine.
No wonder they’re upset, money down the drain!
Shane-o glad to see you rally around your failed mates so readily.
The Liberals have been decimated and have no hope anywhere, and Laming is going to take on the QLD Government! Why not the Council too?? oops I forgot, of course they are on the same side so never any meddling there from our local member. don’t local roads maintained by the council warrant any of his time?? Local Development approvals not important enough??
A margin of 8.9% (a difference of over 14,000 votes) that is reduced to just 64 votes is some a major victory?
you know he won by the skin of his teeth and it could have easily gone the other way – stop the righteous claptrap.
Of course the Your Rights at Work Campaign and Lamings ignorance and denial of the impacts of Work Choices on working families played a big part – good thing too. Maybe he might listen in future but on past experience i doubt it.
i am sure that more detailed evaluation of the results here in Bowman will inform us all much better of the whys and wherefores of this outcome!
I suspect this blog will be closed down soon so see you next time around – or in court maybe.
I also want to say a very big thank you to the other contributors to this little blog in the big picture of election 2007, I mean Kevin O7! of course.
AND a gigantic thank to William Bowe for making this accessible and providing great stats , information and analysis all the way through. I’ve been a fan of this site for a long time and talk it up to others to engage a bit of political debate
thanks William
Sounds like Shane-O struck a raw nerve Redlands Rob. The liberals have won in Bowman, get over it. The majority of the electorate voted for Andrew Laming and in the end that is all that counts. Savour Labor’s federal victory and quit lamenting about opportunites lost and what might have been at the local level.
Seems like Redlands Rod is the one rallying around so-called “failed mates” (Jason Young = failure)
you guys and/or gals are unbelievable – you cant recognise what has happened to you?
I acknowledged ages ago the likelihood of a Laming win here – you lot seem incapable of acknowledging how badly you have performed all over the country and in every state – thats the point I’m making.
Mr Laming is in for some interesting times…… I can assure you
Sure, we acknowledge how badly the election went.
We just love how much it upsets you that the Libs held Bowman despite the big $$$ investment.
the money isn’t what bothers me, we are very satisfied with the turnaround we achieved – its that we have to put with an incompetent fool for another three years. such is life
Yes, an “incompetent fool” who still managed to beat you down!
The Bottom line in the Bowman Debate is to have a recount then we shall see just how much lamings 64 vote lead means, but of course if there is no recount it just means that laming has one of, if not the most marginal seats in the country. That’s thanks to his overwhelming support of Workchoices which has now been dumped by Brendan(Show me the Money) Nelson as Dead!!!!!!!!!!! If only Dr Laming had the common sense to see that Workchoices was as popular as tying a bag of xmas prawnheads around your neck for a week, but of course he is overambitious, to a fault, anyway it might not be 3 years till we’ll get rid of him i hear the federal dpp are still sniffing around there might be a nasty new year present for him!!!!!
Ps The American Political term for laming is a lame duck like bush!!!!!
Pss Hope you libs had a good xmas!!! I did!!!
I thought this blog would be shut down by now but thankfully not. thorny mick adds some reasonable insights.
I am happy to leave the last comments to Shane-o as above -
“incompetent fool” – says it all.
bye
redlands rod
I think this thread has finally breathed its last – I’m now closing it because it’s getting bombarded with spam.