With Liberal member Jason Wood now 733 votes ahead, this post will not be further updated. Results below are not final. For up-to-date results visit the Virtual Tally Room site.
| 2007 | 2004 | ||||
| ALP | LIB | ALP | LIB | Swing | |
| Booths | 33,622 50.27 |
33,263 49.73 |
28,096 44.60 |
34,893 55.40 |
5.66 |
| Pre-Poll | 1,220 50.39 |
1,201 49.61 |
1,391 41.02 |
2,000 58.98 |
9.37 |
| Absent | 2,404 45.01 |
2,937 54.99 |
|||
| Postal | 2427 40.60 |
3,551 59.40 |
2,245 40.65 |
3,278 59.35 |
-0.05 |
| Provisional | 201 41.27 |
286 58.73 |
|||
| Total | 37,269 49.50 |
38,015 50.50 |
34,337 44.17 |
43,394 55.83 |
5.33 |
| ALP (adjusted) | 49.4 | ||||
| LIB (adjusted) | 50.6 | ||||
Saturday evening. This post will be used to follow the final stages of the count in La Trobe, where at the close of election night counting the ABC computer has Liberal incumbent Jason Wood 0.2 per cent ahead of Labor’s Rodney Cocks. Raw figures from the AEC put the lead at 0.3 per cent.
Sunday evening. Two-thirds of pre-polls are counted and they show a sharp swing to Labor. This adds only 19 votes to the raw Labor lead, but it turns the adjusted figure from a 0.2 per cent Liberal lead into a dead heat.
Monday 8pm. In a big surprise, Jason Wood has taken the lead after the addition of nearly 2000 postal votes: perhaps a third of the total. These have split 1262-696 split in Wood’s favour, a 5.1 per cent Liberal swing when compared with 2004 postals, turning a 378 vote deficit into a 166 vote surplus. In adjusted terms it turns the dead heat into a 0.3 per cent Liberal margin. No further pre-polls added.
Tuesday 4pm. A second batch of 1967 postal votes has been only slightly less bad for Labor, breaking 1123-844 in Wood’s favour. This has brought the two-party Liberal swing on postals down to earth, but Wood’s 467 vote lead in absolute terms looks formidable.
Tuesday 11pm. A third batch of postals proves very similar to the last, breaking 1166-887 Wood’s way. It’s now at a surely unassailable 746 votes, which means it’s almost time to shut up shop on coverage for this seat.
18 Comments
Wood is a hard working local member, and this will probably get him over the line. Cocks had very little time to establish a profile in the electorate. The nasty rumours regarding Cocks made it to 3AW, and no doubt this had some effect.
It will be interesting to see the vote count for the Berwick booths, as well as Narre Warren and Boronia.
I need a Berocca, or two.
I was at a Berwick booth for YR@W. I thought it was looking good for Rodney.
I’m a bit disappointed about this one. Here’s hoping that Cocks can somehow sneak over the line, because he’d be an asset to the party.
AEC LaTrobe 1st Prefs and 2PP
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-13745-223.htm
They’ll be some stiff competition from Wood, but I think Cocks will be able to keep this up.
Supposedly La Trobe falls to Labor:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22818152-29277,00.html
Go Rod!
Skynews has given La Trobe to the ALP
No-one can give this seat to anyone yet. They’ve only just started on the postals. Cocks is just ahead but the result won’t be clear for some days.
Am absolutely rapt to read this as I saw him sneaking closer as the night wore on. This seat didnt get much coverage last night, which was surprising considering how close it was.
Actually, the change today has nothing to do with trends in postal or absent votes. It is entirely due to the polling place matching being turned off in the post-election night period. Cocks may now have 50.3%, but if the postal votes go as they did in 2004, then he will end up with 49.8%. But then, if the postals and absent are different, then the result could go either way.
The ABC site is being updated again after the computers have been moved back to Sydney. But we have had to turn the polling place matching off.
There are still up to 20,000 votes out there somewhere of which only 8000 are postals! It points to a huge absentee vote.
Revise that… I think that there are 7000 absentee votes to come
The AEC now has the Libs ahead in LaTrobe following a recount and some pre-polls. On these figures it’s hard to see this one falling to Labor.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/la-trobe-still-too-close-to-call/2007/11/26/1196036793012.html
How can that talentless piece of garbage get a 5% swing on the postals? If Cocks doesnt win I’ll be very,very upset. This has wrecked my day.
Jason put out his postal vote letter to constituents on Parliamentary letterhead… a bit of dirty pool there.
Gee I hope Cocks gets Wood.
quintus
well he is/was in parliament wasn’t he, he was a sitting member. So he has every right to, I get letters from the member in my seat and it was from —–, your Labor sitting member of parliament, there was nothing wrong with that