Comments on: Photo finish: Macarthur

By: Ben Raue

Ben Raue — Fri, 30 Nov 2007 13:55:38 +0000

Yeah, apparently the votes were counted, so no hope of a court appeal. Also I expect Pat to not last out the term and the ALP will win the by-election.

By: dovif

dovif — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 23:54:28 +0000

see Rockdale which I belong to around 1994, Labor tried to parachute someone in, the swing in the safe labor sear was about 14% and the Lib who noone knew won the seat

By: dovif

dovif — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 23:52:54 +0000

adrian Griffith

The election is already decided, why force the voter to vote again just to decide one seat. I know if I was force to vote again in 2 weeks, I will definitely vote against the person who caused me the pain.

There has been many bi-election that had been forced on the people by one party or the other, in some cases the swing is about 10% against the party who forced the by-election.

By: bootjack

bootjack — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 02:31:59 +0000

I do not think the Alp would go for a new election , only if Pat resigned which I dont think he would, but sitting on the other side with no protection and with inquiries from the auditor general, who knows what will happen..
Pity the seat did not fall into govt hands as the current member will have no support or respect from either side as the former PM has goooonnnnnnneee.,
This seat is too close to call

By: Adrian Griffiths

Adrian Griffiths — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 00:54:26 +0000

Is there evidence to suggest that by-elections have the swing effect you speak of Dovif? Without evidence, thats just an opinion.
If one labels a by-election as ‘forceful’ well there should be more information out there, to describe WHY a by-election takes place. In this case…stuff up(s) with a polling booth. As a resident of this electorate, id say…forcing a by-election is the right thing to do under the circumstances.

It would only really create ill will…if people believe the posturing of participants like Pat, who might just go ahead with an attempt to shame the process of the by-election. If it creates ill will….because people beyond the polling booth that stuffed up dont believe those lost votes really matter, well then, something is wrong with peoples attitudes.

If i had a friend, whose vote didnt count…id care. Simple.
Same should go for a complete stranger.

On a side note, I wonder how the next few years pan out in our electorate. Considering at this point, we have a liberal seat…in a federal labour government.
Why would the government in power want to give funding to our area? If its not self serving via a pat/liberal seat.

Just wondering is all.
Especially as (a weekago?)
The auditor general released a paper/report
detailing thats what the liberal government was doing…
with its own seats around the country.

By: dovif

dovif — Wed, 28 Nov 2007 21:37:56 +0000

Oh god, that one is horrible – Pat me …. maybe he really should go into acting instead, Forest Gump 2 maybe.

Rudd won the election already, if they force the people to vote again, there will be a big swing back to the Liberal, I do not think the ALP will want to force a byelection through the disputed return. It would not make sense and create ill-will at the electorate

By: bootjack

bootjack — Wed, 28 Nov 2007 13:38:28 +0000

no dovif it is not a safe labor seat. I just want a sticker that say’s “Belt me spank Me” instead of Pat me. Geeze that was some fantastic marketing, who thought of that.. Or the one that stated I love Pat… well I love thai.. Pat thai..lololooolo

By: Marcus

Marcus — Wed, 28 Nov 2007 05:17:44 +0000

Whoops

Actually it’s 600 votes that split 390-210, a gap of 180….

Same question applies: is 180 votes a magic figure that may determine whether to overturn the result or not?

By: Marcus

Marcus — Wed, 28 Nov 2007 05:08:40 +0000

Re the alleged AEC bungle: I am wondering whether to challenge a result with Disputed Returns, you not only have to prove there was a stuff-up, but that it cost you election (ie you wouldn’t even bother if the electorate was Grayndler or Mitchell)?

Or is the result overturned purely on the principle that an error has been made?

From my calcs:
Rosemeadow had 3000 formal votes, so assuming an even spread of electors 500 of them arrived between 8-10am. They split 65-35 to Labor, so that’s 325 vs 175, a gap of 150. So does this mean that if the final margin is less than 150 votes, it might be overturned, and if it’s greater than 150 it probably won’t??

By: Nick R

Nick R — Wed, 28 Nov 2007 01:30:09 +0000

There may be more to play out yet.
I have heard whispers from outside either party about discrepencies at a booth in the Camden region. No real info yet, I’ll check my sources and let you all know if its legit, ASAP.