Four observations that grabbed me from Insiders this morning. One from Barrie Cassidy:
• “Paul Keating described his win in 1993 as one for the true believers. Last night’s was not. Kevin Rudd promised to govern for all Australians. His appeal within the Labor Party itself is tempered because of his conservative cautious stance on so many issues. He will be seen as the leader the party had to have to beat John Howard. Julia Gillard will be the light on the hill.”
Three from George Megalogenis:
• “I suspect Jackie Kelly tipped (Bennelong) over the line for Maxine McKew. Her performance that Thursday morning on AM radio – my understanding of the tracking polls, a few of them went mad on Thursday night. There was actually swings back to Labor in marginals where there were previously narrowings through the week.”
• “Going into this election, 12 out of the top 30 seats for single mothers were held by the Coalition. They’ve lost eight straight off the bat, another three are doubtful, they’ll be left with one out of 30. (Cassidy: Why?) Welfare to work. Mal Brough. May have been popular in the intervention into Aboriginal affairs, but you know, he wanted single mums to go to work. And if they didn’t go to work they were going to lose their benefits. If you think that this didn’t shift votes where the government didn’t expect them … I think it did.”
• “The Liberal Party needs to have a good hard look at its membership base. This wasn’t just Lindsay, we saw a breakout at the Press Club on Thursday where Liberal Party members were heckling female journalists including Michelle Grattan, I think there was a meanness of spirit in the Liberal Party this year that came from its grass roots. I don’t know what it’s about, but Peter Costello (sic) needs to have a good look at it.”
To elaborate on the second point. I don’t have figures on single mothers specifically, but Megalogenis’s demographic tables include data for single parents which shows 11 previously Coalition-held seats in the top 30: Wakefield, Cowper, Lindsay, Leichhardt, Dunkley, Dobell, Solomon, Page, Robertson, Kingston, Bass, with Macarthur, Hasluck, Blair, Herbert and Longman not far out. The only definite survivor out of these is Dunkley, with Labor narrowly ahead in Solomon, Robertson and Herbert, just trailing in Cowper and Macarthur, and victorious in the other nine.
862 Comments
ShowsOn – you mentioned you were standing next to Pyne yesterday – which booth was he at? I think you said you were going to be at Higbury South sometime? What times did you have there?
Ah yes, the greatest irony of all, the big huggable Jackie Kelly, Mr Howard’s great champion of the ‘battlers’ finally took the lid off the stinking fish heads of the NSW Liberal party just in time for everyone to get a good whiff.
Bless her cotton socks, and her amazingly stupid mouth!
Re point 3: Does anyone have a link to what happened at the Press club? Or more details?
Another good reason for the Libs to elect Turnbull as leader. He is smart enough, tough enough and rich enough to demand and get a thorough purge of the NSW Liberal Party. Most of its staff should be sacked and the Ugly faction led by Clarke should be expelled. if they don’t do this they’ll be in opposition for ever.
I was at Highbury South from 11:30 – 5:00.
Pyne was there from about 2 – 3.
It seems as though Karen Chijoff might not have known about the pamphlets.
Apparently she turned up the booth yesterday without her husband, and with no wedding ring on. She said that her husband has moved out, and that she has not spoke to her husband for a while…..
Or is she saying this to save herself?
Anyone heard anything?
Speaking of pollies, we were at a 4yr olds birthday party yesterday arvo, and one guy had just voted in Bennelong earlier and who should pass by, with his horde in tow, but the Rodent itself. He grabbed the blokes wife’s hand and then his, so he quickly shot off “Enjoy your retirement Mr Howard” to the loud groans of his entourage.
I went down on my knees and shook the hand that had farewelled the Rodent! Oh, did we have a good laugh when I told them not to worry about the ‘narrowing’ and we’d see the Rodent finished off by 8.30 or 9.00. Everyone was palpably relieved when I told them it was finished, Rudd would win handsomely.
Does it really matter? Surely her political career is dead. If she ever runs again Labor will just bring up Kakie Jelly-Gate
I dont think Brendan Nelson is captive to the Christian Right either Adam.
Adam what are your thoughts on the Deputy Leadership?
I think Julie Bishop will be elected unopposed, WA is our last bastion of support it would be foolish to deny their most senior member a high profiled position IMHO.
It’s official!
Steven Kaye is a dickhead
1243
neophyte
Bloody GOLD my friend. Thank you for that link. So much happens on a daily basis that you tend to foget the details of those previous litany of lies and propoganda peddling. Both video clips were excellent. Brilliant get.
ShowsOn 8
Agreed that her career is gone. I simply brought it up a an interesting side point. Politics can be so fickled that you career is killed through no fault of your own…..
I though that Brendan was a gay former ALP member from modbury (not there is anything wrong with that) so definitely not a captive of the religous right
Shows On @ 5. Would you happen to be poor unfortunate soul who was stuck with the 2 young libs? (were you wearing the Kevin-07 t-shirt?).
Is Malcolm the only one to put up the hand for the Libs leadership?
Is Vaile staying on as deputy?
Vaile was deputy PM, leader of NATs only so he was never deputy
Julie Bishop is as dumb as a post. She will make excellent deputy material.
I think the liberals can pick who they want for the leadership team, it will all change in 9-12 years when they will get a cyclic look in at a general election. What sort of loser would want it now?
Made it to the Tally Room last night, had to wait about 90 minutes in a queue with my daughters.
Worth the wait though, wanted my kids to experience the histroic occassion.
Saw tears in Hockeys eyes, only a couple of metres from him, Julia came to the front of the stage to wild cheers, Kerry walked the floor later, Tanya was very, very happy. Great crowd and atmosphere, recommend it if any can make the next one.
Yelled Nantuck Sleigh Ride to Antony about 4 times and Pollbludger a couple of times for good measures.
Did Antony actually use Nantucket Sleigh Ride last night himself?:)
Yep that was me. Here’s some things they talked about:
Mussolini was great, because he got trains to run on time
Tasmania should only have 1 seat in the House of Reps
There shouldn’t be a senate
State governments should be abolished
There never was a hole in the ozone layer
Robert Mugabe only became a tyrant after his Christian wife died (this point was seconded by the Family First volunteer) I challenged this by saying Mugabe is a strict Catholic, who even attended the funeral of the last Pope.
I C Moore 16
Yes, I meant is he staying on as deputy leader of the opposition?
I am assuming the coalition agreement still holds up, and the Nationals leader is the deputy leader when the coalition are in opposition.
BTW, question to all, when is the next poll coming out? LOL
Sorry, force of habit….
NY Times report on the result – liked this bit:
“Mr. Rudd, 18 years younger than Mr. Howard, has a reputation as a cerebral student of policy, as opposed to the Liberal leader’s image of a hardened and aggressive political animal.”
What sort of animal could they possible mean?
Swan looks gone. Labor up by 39 now, with postals to come…
6 Sir Eggo This was in the ‘Curious Snail’ today.
LIBERAL candidate Karen Chijoff, who revealed yesterday she had split from husband Greg after he was caught distributing fake race-hate election flyers, appeared last night to have lost her bid to win the crucial western Sydney suburbs seat of Lindsay.
Labor candidate David Bradbury had an 11.5 per cent swing and was ahead of Ms Chijoff on primary votes.
Lindsay, held since 1996 by retiring Liberal MP Jackie Kelly, hit the headlines this week when Ms Chijoff’s husband Greg and Ms Kelly’s husband Gary Clark were caught distributing a phony leaflet from a fake Islamic group claiming Labor wanted the Bali bombers forgiven and supported building a local mosque.
“I’m not speaking to him any more,” she said yesterday while casting her ballot. “I’m personally outraged by the offensive and unauthorised material.”
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22817525-5013650,00.html
Sir Eggo, Vaile has already indicated he wants to stay on as leader of the Nats no matter what (Yesterday). Therefore we would be the Dep leader of the opposition, barring any bunfights.
Evening all
Can anybody tell me when Mr Rudd officially becomes the PM? I initially thought that he needed a vote of support from Parliament, but after reading up last week learnt this isn’t the case.
I assume it’s when he goes to visit the GG, and thus assume that this will happen after the Labor caucus meeting.
Does this mean Howard makes executive calls until then? If a national emergency arose, who would make the call? You would assume Howard would do what Rudd told him to do, as I imagine caretaker conventions are still in place, but I am curious as to the technicalities.
I trust you have all been enjoying your day of jubilee. The senate ensures it will be an interesting few years to follow.
Everyone needs to watch Shanahan’s report. He looks very tired / emotional / disappointed:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22458164-5013871,00.html
Fozzy (3), some of the local libs took to heckling the journos, because they believed that the journos were focusing too much on the Lindsey incident when asking questions of the then PM. They even had the temerity to heckle La Gratton! The then PM was also exasperated: ‘What more can I say?’ he asked. He did condemn the Lindsey alleged breachers of the Electoral Act in every which way except for one thing. He was careful not to say that that their activity was ‘racist’. I suppose that is one reason why Labour now holds the top thirty of the seats with the highest number of foreign born voters. Some soul searching needs to be done on the use of the race dog whistle. Some nice bookends for the historians. At the beginning of the larger campaign period we had Haneef, the Sudanese refugees (remember: the then Minister Andrews decided to limit the number of Sudanese refugees after a young Sudanese was murdered early in the election? Imagine how the youth’s family felt!). Lindsey was the other campaign bookend. The larger, government-long, bookend was Howard co-opting the Hanson dog whistle in the early days of this Government, only in the end to find that the battlers rated their rights at work a bit higher than the siren calls of racism and xenophobia and related calls to patriotism, security and militarism. A sorry national saga. Let’s all hope the Wets rally, regroup, reflect and set a new agenda for the loyal opposition.
ShowsOn @ 21. We actually met yesterday – I came in during your shift at about 3.15 & then stayed on the scrutineer (stood at the other entrance).
Mia & Mike Rann were there during my shift earlier in the day – pity they didn’t arrive when Pyne was there to cause a bit of a stir
Julie Bishop – cold, metallic, spooky, freaky rightwing – the opposite of Julia
I imagine Howard would consult Rudd. Howard is still acting-P.M., Rudd is P.M.-elect.
Cool! Pity it didn’t work out for Mia, looks like she has lost by about 1000 votes.
Unfortunately I arrived just as Mia was leaving. I talked to her a bit on Thursday night, and told her if she didn’t win, there was always the senate.
IC Moore – apparently Brendan Nelson had a gay brother (now deceased). You may be confusing that story with Nelson’s own sexuality. As for being a former member of ALP I think thats right.
From a gay rights perspective it would be really interesting to see Turnbull as Opposition leader. In order to hang on to his seat he will have to play nice on gay rights but how will that sit with the far-right in his party?
And who will the Exclusive Bretheren have left to support?
If Turnbull or Nelson become leader, you can expect the Liberal party to make a big step left on social policy.
Expect support for civil unions, equal rights for homosexuals, the end of support for the Pacific Solution and support for the Republic and Aboriginal Reconciliation.
The Liberal party will go back to its base after this election and try to rebuild from there…
29 Boerwar. The material wasn’t racist (there wasn’t even a race mentioned). Certainly defamatory to the Labor party though.
ShowsOn. Yes, it is a real pity. She certainly held her own with Pyne in a couple of public forums I attended & I was most impressed with the way she relates to the people around her – all round, a very nice person & would make a very good representative.
Highbury South ended up having a pretty good swing – more than the minimum required. It looks like Beaumont, Burnside & the other “Born to Rule” suburbs didn’t deliver enough votes in the end according to the AEC site.
What are people’s thoughts on the likely final seat count after doubtfuls have been decided?
i was going thru scenarios in my head as to what the Libs do now re: leadership,direction,policy,membership,money etc etc
i came to the conclusion they are focked.
its gonna get very nasty,very desperate and very unedifying to the public.
to sum up their future i would say:
temporary/permanent irrelevance.
i mean, they have been flatly rejected at every level of office in the land …. and the worst is to come.
ABC is now projecting 88 seats for Labor. I think that’s a trifle optimistic – I’m expecting something around 85 or 86 seats (although I’d be glad to be proven wrong).
So is it true – $weeite is outta there!!!
Can you remember what the final 2pp for Highbury South was?
I believe it was 62/38 last time. Even 55/45 would’ve been good.
One good thing about the result Boerwar is that awful dog whistling has now stopped.
As for Howard doesn’t he have to make a second concession to Maxine in Benelong when the seat is finally called.
“Hello Maxine, it’s John, I’m ringing to say I have conceded”
“Hello, John, sorry can’t hear you, you’re ringing to say your constipated?”
“No, no, I’m conceding, conceding”
“You’re conceited?, yes we know that, so why are you calling?”
All this of course whilst the speaker phone is on and everyone is rolling around the floor doubled over in laughter.
Matt Price dies, age 45.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22818522-7582,00.html
“And who will the Exclusive Bretheren have left to support?”
Didn’t they say that it would be the beginning of the end of the world with a loss of Howard? They seemed to think he was some kind of God-appointed messiah.
Sadly off-topic, Matt Price has lost his battle with cancer. Story & open comments for condolences can be found here
“i mean, they have been flatly rejected at every level of office in the land …. and the worst is to come.”
It can’t get much worse than this so i dispute your comment.
Malcolm Turnbull – Julie Bishop leadership team does it for me.
Yes, sad news about Matt. Was very sudden too.
SwingLowe: The gay community will hold Turnbull to this stance on gay rights. It would be amazing if the Libs are the ones that pressure the ALP on gay rights, though I doubt it in their first term of opposition. If Tanner is right in saying that the ALP will move on gay rights, then I would hope Turnbull says that the Libs want a bi-partisan approach. In fact, for the Libs to regain the lower-l liberal voters, they might actually have do the bipartisan approach on the ALP social policy. Time will tell.
On a personal note, I was at the Laird Hotel celebrating last night. This is a gay hotel in inner north of Melbourne. Only a few people were upset, including my partner. I think amazingly he started asking me more questions about how government works. He still wonders why majority of the gay community votes Greens and ALP. I hope a few years under a federal Labor government will help him see it’s not all that bad.
ShowsOn, TPP was 53.89/46.11.
Here’s the breakdown of the other booths according to the AEC:
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionTcpByPollingPlace-13745-190.htm
So when “The Gimp” finally gets the chance to lead the party he goes scurrying and hides in the corner yelling “no master, no master”……….just doesn’t have it in him.
Glen
Try a DLP-style split:
Nelson, Tunrbull Gerrgio etc become the True Liberal Party.
While The far right Christians become the Christian Liberal Party.
I’m not suggesting it’s likely. Just conceivable – and worse.
[ShowsOn, TPP was 53.89/46.11.
Here’s the breakdown of the other booths according to the AEC:
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionTcpByPollingPlace-13745-190.htm
That’s so sad… so close but so far, including a few booths with double figure swings.
Splits never work out well RA, and unless we lose another 25 seats in 2010 i don’t see such a thing happening.
Glen,
it is all very well to say Malcolm or Brendan or Julie but do you think the Right are going to lay down and cop that?
The uglies are the powerbrokers at the moment. that is a big part of your problem.
which direction is your party going to go/
what will be their ideals?
what will be their goals?
what will be their policy?
a fight is looming because of the dominance and subseviance to JWH all these years.
it won’t be pretty and its gonna take a long time.
what are your answers?
Max, I answered the question about the leadership handover earlier. Howard will be PM, with full executive authority, until he formally resigns. That will be on Friday at the earliest. If a 9/11-type disaster happened tomorrow, Howard would be in charge, although he’d probably consult with Rudd.
I agree that a Turnbull-Bishop ticket would give the Libs the best short-term prospects.
Who says Nelson is a social liberal? I’ve never seen any sign of it.
Yes because who in the hard right has the numbers and who in the hard right has profile to lead us.
The uglies are not the powerbrokers atm they may be in some parts of NSW but not nationally.
Let’s wait and see who the new leader is before we speculate on how the party is going to change.
Maybe it was an alcohol induced blur, but I seem to recall Malcolm Turnbull rambling incoherently about “The Serfs” in his victory speech last night.
Not sure if that was wise, but can’t believe that Dr Nelson is seriously being mentioned as leader – no bathhouse in the country would be the same again.
Landeryou is advocating Kevin Andrews as Leader of the Opposition:
http://andrewlanderyou.blogspot.com/2007/11/good-to-go-malcolm-turnbull-first-out.html
This demonstrates the problems for the Liberal right – Andrews is probably the most qualified right-winger left in the Liberal party. What this means is that the Uglies are going to have to put up with a Wet being Leader, with hopefully a fellow Ugly being deputy Leader. I have my doubts on that, though…
Thanks Adam
I have trouble seeing the same people who said Julia Gillard was unfit because she was “Barren” passionately arguing for the right of two Lesbians to marry.
And that might be where Turnbull takes the party.
There are serious numbers of current Liberal party members who would ideaologically more at home in the ALP right. (Which is now comftably overlapping the original Liberal Wets. That’s got to cause some tension.)
Andrews wont be deputy, Bishop will and shes not Christian right you guys.
According to ABC News, Andrew Robb just threw his hat into the ring as Opposition leader…
WPC @ 36
Your comment made me think a bit and I come out of it with some uncertainty with respect to Lindsey, because I do not know the material well enough. My understanding of it in the general and the particular (Lindsey) is that with a racist dog whistle you actually do not need to actually mention race. You put some cues in there so it is just understood. Therefore you have your cake and eat it too. You can be racist without it being possible for you to be called out as racist. It depends on your target audience being ‘in the know’. The beauty of it is that if your opponents get grumpy about it you just brand them ‘PC’. It all has a certain sort of system beauty. For the Lindsey material. for a successful dog whistle, there would need to be cues to muslims and bali bombers. The audience would be expected to put two and two together, so they generate a personal ‘Aha!’ moment.
The husband-wife parliamentary team seems to be becoming popular. Jon Sullivan, new member for Longman, is the husband of Carryn Sullivan, state member for Pumicestone. Belinda Neale, new member for Robertson, is the wife of NSW Minister John Della Bosca. Any others come to mind?
63# LOL
Matt Price, dead, according to Sky
How dumb is this from Christopher Pearson:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22810937-5013596,00.html
The demeanour of the Canberra press gallery at large towards the Prime Minister in his last campaign address bordered on the churlish, although there were the usual honourable exceptions.
….
Nearly half of question time on the last formal occasion of the campaign was wasted on an ill-considered stunt of no real importance. It’s hard to imagine that in London or Washington the press corps on the eve of national elections would use such a trivial pretext for none-too-subtle barracking. But the gallery often behaves like a rather ratty co-ed boarding school, with Michelle Grattan, the political editor of The Age, an earnest but dull head girl. On Thursday Grattan forgot her prefect’s badge and engaged in a spot of unseemly barracking. It was no more than she deserved when government staffers started booing her.
Are you serious about Andrew Robb?
Glen – Weirdly enough, I’m not joking.
Nelson is an opportunist – AMA president who sold his soul to be in Govt.
He is the quintessential Liberal “Star Candidate” he has no factional backing (yes the Libs have factions – just like Labor).
He is likely to be another casualty – get the stethescope ready. We need more doctors.
I know you weren’t i was laughing out loud that Andrew zzzzzzzz Robb would put himself up as a Leadership contender
Like the Sun said it’ll be a Melbourne Cup field of candidates.
Kerry Obrien and Michael B will lap this up wont they next week.
Can a Senator realistically be the opposition leader? Would the deputy leader handle HoR business?
63 Marko good joke, but the ALP isn’t that lucky!
The Lindsay material was designed to link Labor with Muslims, not with any race. Islam is not a race, it’s a religious ideology. It’s perfectly possible to be a white Muslim – ask Abu Hicks if you can find him. Muslims are thoroughly unpopular in western Sydney, hence the dog whistle about a mosque in St Mary’s, the most working-class part of Lindsay.
Adam,
I asked a question of you at 401 on the previous thread, which you may not have seen, so I’ll repeat it here – just in case you read this:
‘Adam (if you are viewing),
‘In ‘Idle speculation about the federal election’ (10/2/2007), you said that a “Rudd government will probably be the nearest thing to a Christian Democrat government Australia has ever had”. Do you maintain that view? I have said on one thread that Kevin Rudd will be our first DLP prime minister. I just wanted to say it first, but I am sure someone else in the ALP or the media will say it at a future date, just as they said that Steve Bracks was Victoria’s first DLP premier.
‘I also wonder how soon the usual suspects will start attacking the Rudd Government on the same issues as they attacked the Howard Government and how the ALP will deal with the internal tensions that arise from Mr Rudd’s election-winning conservatism and the ALP activists’ trendyism.’
Bloody Hell
If Mr. Personality (Robb) runs for leader, politics will soooooo exciting
Sarcasm meter just blew up…..
Adam, somehow I don’t think it’s the white Muslim’s that racist Australia are worried about.
51
red wombat
He doesn’t even have the numbers! This is Bracket Creep chucking the biggest dummy spit in Oz politics since, well, Latham actually.
Instead of them rolling Howard for him, 18 months ago, they wouldn’t back him, so now he’s just telling them to shove it.
Great “TEAM” huh?
Glen,
Console yourself with the thought that if you’re going to have a leadership contest, you may as well get it right the first time. So if there are a lot of candidates, there’s a better chance of getting the right person elected than if someone was appointed by unanimous acclimation.
Of course, Robb as opposition leader would only be marginally worse than Andrews (actually, I think Robb may be better).
Maybe Robb has found that according to google he has some support
Maybe this was mentioned earlier? If not more info:
NEWSPAPER columnist and political sketch writer Matt Price has died in Perth, just hours after votes were cast in the federal election he had planned to cover.
Price, 46, died today after being diagnosed in September with brain tumours.
Prime Minister-elect Kevin Rudd today expressed shock at the death of the political journalist and commentator and paid tribute to his work.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22818841-2,00.html
No.
You think Downer wishes Costello had told him his decision before Downer wen t on Insiders?
http://www.abc.net.au/insiders/content/2007/s2100454.htm
BARRIE CASSIDY: Malcolm Turnbull won his seats against the odds, will that boost his stocks within the party?
ALEXANDER DOWNER: Well, he has been in Parliament for 3 years and I think he’s gradually building up a bank of experience there, and I think he has a very good future in the party.
He is a very good friend of mine and I think very highly of him as a person. But look, you need to build up experience in politics and he’s doing that. Nobody in the party, well, I suppose at least in theory with the exception of me, but I’m not running for leader, but no one in the party has the experience of Peter Costello and I think there shouldn’t be a contest to the leadership. It should just go straight to Peter Costello.
On the Kath’n'Kim Movie (yes I know) there was just a line regarding Brett’s new job and the hours he is working.
Kath “If you must blame anyone, blame John Howard.”
Kim: “Who?”
It was clear from the Downer “taking of soundings” incident at the time of Apec that none of these guys talk to Costello except when unavoidable.
And it was obvious that Costello hadn’t told Howard of his future intentions before Howard’s concession last night.
If Howard knew, he wouldn’t of endorsed Costello so strongly.
William re Mega George:
dropped this on Possum yesterday
‘I live on the borderline of 2 NQ electorates, one 10% the other 7%; checked out both major booths: Not one picture or name of JWH; not one!
Big lineups, vocal women with kids knocking back liberal balloons ‘not more advertising’. Feels like it’s on.’ Thanks Poss. November 24, 2007 @ 11:43 am
Herbert & Dawson.
BTW hope all the nervous nellie mexicans enjoyed the march of the cane toads last night on meebo thingy. Ta Mr Bowe.
Maxine appears to have ruined the opening of the new parliament; JWH front centre or back…bugger.
Chris, yes I do maintain that view. On many issues Rudd is a conservative and the ALP left will not be happy with him, and of course there will be the usual rows along the way. But Rudd will deliver on his commitments – repeal WorkChoices, sign Kyoto, invest in education, fix the hospitals, get out of Iraq – so the party faithful won’t have much to complain about. His remarks about Bernie Banton showed that he is an orthodox Labor man in many ways. The unions will get due recognition but won’t be allowed to dominate. Of course it’s a mistake to assume that unions always pressure from the left. The right-wing unions, the SDA and the AWU, will have a big voice in the Rudd government.
As I recall, Rudd was criticised early in his leadership because he decided to go the full monte on a one-election strategy. The first thing the libs need to do is assess whether one-election or two-election is the better strategy. If two elections, pick some one who will make up ground, get damaged and get ditched after the next election. If one term, try to pick a one-election winner. Hmmm. They would need a serious set of national disasters for the latter option to be at all credible. Not impossible with some of the external independent variables operating world-wide. Still, they should probably be looking for the human sacrifice-as-leader right now.
as funny as Robb sounds as Leader, he was the one i was thinking might be the man for the job right now(seeing as that gutless shit Costello has left the donkey work to others).
Robb could be the Simon Crean for the Libs for a while.
Party elder, party experience,steady,boring and eminently expendable.
18 months(or 18 years , depending how bad they get) of Robb might be needed.
If Turnbull takes it now he will be crushed. He is, however, arrogant enough to want it now.
Robb…Leader
J Bishop deputy
who knows.
Robb is a joke. A dream come true for Labor.
“Any others come to mind?”
Steve Hutchins, Labor senator from NSW, used to be married to Dianne Beamer, NSW state Labor MP and former minister.
Julie Bishop on the other hand would be an investment in the future. A better looking, smoother top woman in politics than Julia Gillard. She has time to grow in the job since the Coalition won’t be competitive until 2013. Can you imagine? Julia versus Julie.
If none of you have seen this:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article2936993.ece
A whole lot of Tory rot (it is the Times, after all) about “Australia’s Mystery Landslide”
Worth a read, though it’ll get your blood boiling.
Favorite quote: “Don’t blame them, for they know not what they do.”
Which I believe makes JWH the Messiah. And here I thought Rudd was the messiah – at least according to Barnaby Joyce…
Labor’s finance spokesman Lindsay Tanner has told ABC TV’s Insiders Liberal voters do not know who they will be electing.
“If the Howard Government gets re-elected, it’s going to be a total snake pit, it’ll be a complete internal free-for-all,” he said.
Will it be even uglier now?
How quickly we all move on , or don’t. Matt Price’s untimely and very sad death has already been reported many times. Don’t start up with rubbish about this, fellow Bludgers, like Ruawake, it’s up front and personal for me. Leadership speculation in what remains of the LNP is indicative of what they have become. If they don’t have a good, very long, and very hard look, and I mean very hard look at themselves, they are an ex-Parrot of a party, IMO.
No Australian government has been defeated after one term since Jim Scullin in 1931, and that was only because of the Great Depression. There would have to be a major disaster, politically or economically, for Rudd to lose in 2010. So the chances of whoever the Libs pick as Leader ever becoming PM are pretty slim. Think Snedden, Hayden, Peacock, Beazley. That’s the real reason Costello is quitting. He blew his chance of being PM when he failed to challenge Howard, and he knows it.
94
Flash – now that would be interesting, Julie should prevail id think.
The last thing we want is a Crean fat load of good he did for Mark Latham.
We tories might as well go with half-Nelson see how he goes if he’s a disaster like Downer, give him the boot and put Turnbull in.
Julie Bishop will be the deputy leader of the Libs.
Labour has ticker
Liberal has tiptoe
Adam,
i also think Kevin will be extremely happy that FF are in a position to counter the Greens on social policy.He will get enough support in the Senate to do everything Labor wants except social policy reform….and that will suit kev fine.
it is the best possible scenario for Kevin…..not so for us progressive people of the centre, the left and the right though.
Adam @ 98 – Yep. And whoever assumes the mantle of leadership is going to have to rebuild all of the State Liberal parties as well. They can’t just expect to survive by flipping the Federal Parliament. That might – just might – take six years. Or it could take 15 years. In the meantime, they’re going to have to gin up new leaders, and they can’t do that unless they control a State or two. But, right now, even the chances of that look impossibly remote.
Funniest quote in Sat night’s ABC coverage was when Kerry O’Brien mentioned a strong “swing to the ABC”.
Too true! Especially in Bennelong.
Andrew Robb, in what little I have seen of him, comes off as quite unpleasant.
He has an air of meanness about him, fitting considering the mean spirited govt he belonged to, but in a new Liberal party perhaps not the image you want to cultivate.
The reason why we’ve not heard from Nelson is because he’s doing the numbers and when he’s got them he’ll announce. Brendan has always been tauted as a potential leader, why not give him a shot up until 2010 if he fails or doesnt bring back enough seats, we can go with Malcolm who’ll by then have oodles of experience in politics.
Julie Bishop and Malcolm Turnbull could fight it out for the leadership in 2010.
Thanks, Adam. I am sure you are right about Kevin Rudd’s implementing his promises. It’s what happens next that will create some tensions. You are also right about the infl;uence of unions like the SDA and the AWU. In fact, I wonder if unions that funded non-ALP candidates should not be disaffiliated as an individual member who donated to a non-ALP candidiate woul be expelled. That would shift the balance of power in the party, wouldn’t it?
Andrew Robb is like Tony Abbott, an ex-DLPer who lost his way.
Marko @ 95,
Our resident right-wing wingnut ‘Thommo’ has actually commented on The Times’ article. So at least we know that he’s out there reducing the IQ of people in the UK as well as those here…
What a patronising article – he seems to think he knows more about how Australia should be governed than an Australian. There’s a bit too much “silly cobbers” seeping through that article for my liking.
Keating said long before that Costello will never be a Prime Minister.
He was right. What an astute politician! I’d like to hear, again, how he reach that prediction
Out of the 7 seats in doubt, it looks like Labor are going to win 6 of them.
So that would be a final result of 89 – 59 (49 + 10) – 2.
How sweet it is!
For a more favourable UK viewpoint, there’s this article from The Observer:
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/world/story/0,,2216548,00.html
That’s Andrew I’ve got the personal charms of a grave Robb(er)?
For party leader? Oh, make my day!
This is getting better by the minute!
Chris, yes I think the CFMEU is on very thin ice. I have forgiven the ETU now that Mike Symon has rather unexpectedly won Deakin.
Ah, ShowsOn, we’re just colonials. What would we know?
Swing Lowe @ 108 -
I knew that. But chose to overlook it.
Oh, and for a lefty viewpoint in the UK, here’s The Independent:
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/australasia/article3194066.ece
Showson, no postals have been counted yet so far. Postals always favour the Libs strongest, as they tend to be cast by elderly people.
ShowsOn
Bull butter, there’s still roughly 20% to be counted for each of those 7 seats, the Tories wont lose 6.
Downer on ninemsn -
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=322564
Proving Costello is a rat (and that Downer is delusional):
“Completely unexpected,” Mr Downer said, adding that he had yet to decide whether to throw his hat into the ring for the Liberal leadership role he quit 12 years ago.
And further proof he doesn’t get it:
The long-serving foreign affairs minister said it was impossible to say whether Mr Rudd would be a good prime minister.
“He basically put together a poll-driven campaign and done so very – let’s not be mean spirited about it – very successfully.
“Basically (Mr Rudd) put together a package built on focus groups and quantitative polling and marketed it really well.
That’s the flavour at work… you know, like when Keating dared to touch the Queen, and Fleet Street printed “Hands off Cobber!” They can’t help bringing out that sort of garbage, you know – treating us like we are all convicts.
I believe that postal votes favor the incumbent, not the Liberals, per se. Something like 60/40. Someone correct me if I’m wrong…
Harry H – I hope you’e wrong about Rudd using FF as a way to get the ALP’s socially progressive reforms to fail but we shall soon see.
Thats why I think Turnbull as Opp Leader would be interesting. Given the make-up of his seat Malcolm would surely have to allow a conscience vote on some of these issues? Im hoping he will be like Brogden was in NSW (at least on certain issues). Unfortunately that might mean he suffers the same fate as Brogden. Lets not forget Alex Hawke is in the mix now (shudder).
I think it’s the showpony ticket – all show and no substance. Turnbull *may* become a good politician with some more experience, but I think the campaign showed he’s not quite there yet. And what is it with the Libs and women with the surname “Bishop”? Julie now is like Bronwyn was in the 90s – apparently the next great Coalition woman, for no discernible reason.
I think Joe Hockey would be a solid candidate, though Workchoices does leave a bit of a taint. Brendan Nelson has been the invisible man for a while – why? A friend did float the idea that he was staying low so that he could come out of the election loss not looking too bad and assume the Opposition leadership without much trouble, but I subscribe more to the idea that he’s fairly useless.
Greetings all.
In my first post here since the truly magnificent Labor victory last night, I would firstly say congratulations to Labor supporters and the new PM, Kevin Rudd.
Having watched John Howard’s concession speech at the Wentworth hotel last night, he was statesman-like and dignified in defeat. Of course, it was a terrible way to be retire from politics, but at least he had the conviction to go down fighting for a policy in which he believed. He is the greatest PM in Australia’s history, and will remain so in my view.
I am disappointed that Costello sees no future in politics. He is still young – Howard became PM at 57, whilst Costello is 50. I enjoy his dominating performances in parliament, which would have kept question time interesting.
However, in terms of the Liberal Party’s future, I like the fact that Turnbull has entered the race because I feel he is now the best choice for moving the party forward, and as Adam said earlier, purging the disaster that is the NSW Liberal Party. Having done limited campaigning in Wentworth during the election campaign, Turnbull’s approach is something from which the Liberal Party has much to gain. The inconsistent and complex campaign of 2007 is something which should never be repeated by the Liberals.
As for my thoughts on Rudd’s prime ministership, it seems clear that if he keeps his communist front bench under control, he should be a relatively decent PM. I would also hope that he refrains from sloganeering and maintains a tough stance on illegal immigration and national security.
Oh well, I knew I was being blindly optimistic at 91 for Labor, but Kerist, me and himself indoors haven’t stopped grinning all day. “the Long Dark Teatime of the Soul” is finally over.
Andrew Robb?
Ha HA de har ha. I agree with Glen lol.
Geez Chris,
these dlp’ers are everywhere aren’t they lol
Didn’t know that about Robb.
in regard to Robb, i agree with what everyone says about him. he is an oaf, nasty, boring, hopeless….but that is all irrelevant.
the Libs have got to understand that THEY are irrelevant for the immediate future. the rebuilding must start from within and it will take time. A blonk like Robb could just wile away time federally and do some hard yard fixing behind the scenes for a few years.
the ascension, when and if it occurs, must start thru the states.
I can’t see the politically and partywise inexperienced Turnbull doing anything other than doing more longterm trouble for the Libs.
but they can do what they like. i hope they remain irrelevant.
wonder what the first royal commission will be about
my tip-worstchoices or health
The Labor leads are too big Glen, and the postal / pre-poll votes are splitting close to 50/50.
No need for a Royal Comission into WorkChoices. They just need to get rid of it.
But it would be great to see Gillard holding press conferences releasing all the workplace statistics that Hockey has suppressed.
I just checked Bennelong – it’s 51.86/48.34. Which seems a comfortable lead, just a touch over 3.5%. When will Howard concede?
Postals used strongly to favour the Liberals because rich people tended to be away from home more than poor people. That’s changed because (a) many more people are travelling (b) many more rich people vote Labor and (c) many more people are voting by post just for convenience. It’s true that postals still favour incumbents, because sitting MPs can run stronger postals campaigns by (mis)using their office facilities, but a good opposition campaign can do just as well if it is well funded.
125. GP…his communist front bench..?
Please.
So basically you think he’ll do ok, so long as he behaves like a Liberal PM.
How big of you.
If the Libs are pointing at Labor for their loss (as can be seen from Downer’s comments in 120), they can stay in opposition forever. I’ve seen Labor do a few post-mortems and it usually comes down to the campaign was f’ed, the party didn’t listen to the grass roots members, and that power needed to go more to the grass roots members not the party machines (like factions and all that). The Libs need to do a real post-mortem and actually plan for their future.
A Royal Commision into AWB would see Downer, Vaile and Truss in very deep trouble. Bring it on!
Grog you and the lefties have said you’ll think Turnbull will be good so long as he’s more progressive, don’t be a hypocrite lol!
How many of you lot read the international newspapers. SOme of the American ones have a passing mention of Australian politics. The Washington Post has what looks like a Liberal Party press release. You can find some stories here:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/11/24/AR2007112401406.html
The original mentioned a ’swag of union bosses’
Another over at the New York Times seems to be confused over the RuddStar’s ability at Mandarin and labels him ‘The Premier of Australia’
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/25/world/asia/25australia.html?ref=world
But ‘The Independent’ in the UK – gets it right – and a warning – it is very harsh.
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/australasia/article3194066.ece
“As for my thoughts on Rudd’s prime ministership, it seems clear that if he keeps his communist front bench under control, he should be a relatively decent PM. I would also hope that he refrains from sloganeering and maintains a tough stance on illegal immigration and national security.”
yeah, thanks.. we’ll… umm… take your advice on board…. hmmm…
Pretty quickly you would imagine. Howard knows that the Liberals really don’t want a by-election.
I think Labor is playing this right in not claiming a victory.
Haven’t we already had a Royal Commission into AWB?
HarryH,
I don’t have time or the inclination to post a full list – you’d be surprised! From a former Governor-General down!
The danger for the Libs is that they become like the state parties. Some Labor people might like this to happen, but it’s bad for democracy. Even Labor Governments have to be kept under pressure, and we all benefit from strong oppositons.
Julie Bishop is utterly unimpressive. Her policies on education are IPA babble.
The likelihood is that whomever the Libs choose will not get to be PM but will be overthrown by impatient coupsters who can’t be bothered to do the actual work needed to rebuild.
Adam: Albanese and Tebbut are another.
Howard will concede once the first batch of postal votes come in. Unless they come in at a 2:1 ratio in favour of him, he’s lost the seat. So expect it to happen then…
I’ll be honest about last night and say before Qld results I was nervous. We were getting a seat here, seat there, and I was wondering where the 16 were going to come from. I even said that I was concerned to my mates who were political novices. Then Qld hit, and it was over. I never expected Qld to go THAT well. Other states went OK, but it was won in Qld.
Laborites from all over Australia are in debt to the Banana benders. I’m never going to look at that state the same way again. I wish Qld Labor supporters the best for the future
Except in the State of Origin Rugby League off course
LOL
Question without notice to all. How many of the seats that changed hands were Labor behind on primaries but won on the back of (mostly) Green preferences?
For George@139
$weetie is originaly a red-head – makes him a Communist I guess .
Glen, I don’t think Turnbull will be good. (I think Turnbull thinks he’ll be good).
Just out of curiousity, did any journo press Costello pre-election what he would do if they lost? Howard was pressed, of course, but I have no recollection that Cossie was.
Swing Lowe, my impression is that they have been counting postal ballots all day today at the AEC…
ps just got nice sms from craig thompson
pps shows on-maybe a royal commission is best because then ALL the shite that was done can be fully exposed and put on the public record (also future generations would have a guide as to not what to do)
And Worstchoices should be the first of many royal commissions imho
I agree with the person who said on the previous thread that Costello is lazy and sees as below him the job of rebuilding the party, a-la Bomber in 1996. I like to think it summarises the collective state of mind of the Liberals. In which case, they’d better get ready for a VERY long time in Opposition.
Bishop as deputy would be flogged by Julia in any respect anyone cares to mention. For the life of me I can’t see why she’s hailed as a promising prospect. If this is the best the Libs can offer, Heaven help them.
As for Rudd’s agenda, in particular the ABC, I found this article very heartening (apologies if it’s been posted before):
http://thebulletinelection.ninemsn.com.au/the_wizard_of_oz.htm
just remember royal commissions can bite those who start them up…
148 Flash – yes he was asked (can’t remember where) in the last week. He fudged.
(I’ll try and find it)
i think Rudd would be highly highly reluctant to put the Howard Government to the legal sword thru commisions and such.
but he might just make an exception for Dolly and AWB. It is personal between the 2 diplomats.
i think Rudd has total disdain for Dolly and his performances as Foreign Affairs head…especially AWB.
Generic Liberal, that was the first sensible thing I’ve ever seen you say here (apart from the last paragraph of course). Have you considered running for leader?
Re your last point. The first boatload of bearded pseudo-refugee jihadists that pokes its bow into Australian waters will learn that Rudd Means What He Says. It will be off to Xmas Island and then back to Bankruptistan with them.
The state elections are (now) always held in November – which makes the postal dynamic a little different.
As it’s just after the end of Uni, the Uni people on post-exam holidays are a larger part of the postals.
Hence the state experience (i’m lead to believe) indicates the postals favour the Liberals by less than is historically the case in November elections.
There will be as many Royal Commissions as needed to keep the Libs down for as long as desired. That’s pretty much how this game is going to be played. It will decimate the Lib leadership – which may explain why Costello is so quick to head to the exits. He’s not weak willed: he knows what’s coming.
Marko,
From the AEC website, no postals have been counted in Bennelong. They have counted the pre-polls though (which Howard won 51/49 – not enough to reverse the trend).
What is this with “white muslims” ? 75 & 78? Do you /have you lived in western Sydney? How can you say what they are afraid of?
Bosnians were white but that didnt help them much -just ask the Dutch who handed over severalthousands of males aged between 9 & 60.
Call a spade a spade. Declare your prejudices .
Thanks Grog.
Holding a Royal Commission into WorkChoices would be completely at odds with Rudd’s mantra that “it’s about the future not the past”.
Adam 136 – there will not be a further Royal Commision into AWB. There is an unwritten agreement (I wouldn’t say a convention) between political parties not to hold serious inquiries into the activities of a previous government. The rationale is that if one party does try to nail their opponents, then the other mob will do the same in return at a later date. Not a bad idea really. Better to get on with something positive. We all know that Howard, Downer and Vaile lied to the Cole commision – they have to live with that.
Who agrees with Glenn Milne that governments can no longer rely on a strong economy to win elections?
Was yesterday a sign that voters now understand that the government doesn’t really control or manage the economy, and that the real role of government is to figure out the best ways to spend money?
Here’s the rub with the Liberal leader. Whoever takes up the mantle sips from a poisoned chalice (mixing my metaphors only slightly). Labor will be in for at least 2 terms, so whoever leads now will be opp leader for at least 6 years before having a real chance of winning the 2013 election. By that time the punters are used to that person being ONLY an opp leader. Think about it. Gough got the leadership (was it ‘67?), lost in 69 but recorded (still) greatest 2pp swing. Hawkie was leader for about 3 nanoseconds before he scored the top job, Howard was made leader again in ‘95 and won in ‘96 and of course Rudd had < 12 mths in the job before winning. Whoever becomes opp leader now will not be their next PM, unless he/ she is dumped at some point and then re-claims the leadership role, and then goes on to win an election. 2016 maybe at the earliest?
So….do you think this is Costello’s game plan? To have some other shmuck sort out the carnage, lose in 2010 and then make a play for leader so he can win in 2013? Such a fanciful scenario would appeal only to the most devious mind. On the other hand, Costello is a lazy, arrogant, totally self-centred egoist (verging on the pathological variety) who has only ever thought about himself, and never had the guts to grab what he thought was rightfully his. It’s probably the latter.
Marko 157 – read my 161
Swing Lowe – Ta. They must be starting their postal count with the undecided seats first…
I agree. Not to mention a huge waste of money. We already know that WorkChoices is bad policy, and bad economically. The government should just get rid of it.
Who wrote that crap George…did you have a good night?
Alex – Sensible. It’s mutually assured destruction any other way.
Marko,
None of the undecided seats have any postals recorded as being counted. Just pre-polls. The first postals should start trickling in tomorrow…
Aussieguru01, an awesome night! Didn’t get to bed until 5AM. Howbout you?
Just read the Landeryou blog. Couldn’t work it out — is he seriously barracking for Kevin Andrews as the dark horse for the Lib leadership? Honestly?
The man is as sinister as the Blair Witch Project and his values are about two decades behind even Jonny Howard. I’d have thought Bronwyn would have a better chance than Andrews?
Did we see anything of the Exclusive Brethren? When the Lindsay scandal broke out I fully expected to see a flood of complaints, centered around their operations.
They did operate in Chisholm last time, but not a whimper here. Glen I didn’t see you at Anna Burke’s victory celebrations.
Alex, well it’s time that convention was broken. AWB was a criminal conspiracy immensely harmful to Australia’s economic and security interests, and the Cole Commission was hamstrung by its terms of reference. One way or another the truth will be brought out and when it is Downer and Vaile will be politically ruined for good.
No 151
Pathological Logic, I think you have to consider the fact that after nearly 12 years in government, it is not going to be easy for members to pick themselves up and move on. Especially someone like Costello.
In terms of Julie Bishop’s prospects, I don’t think she’ll be a good choice for any leadership job. My ideal leadership team would be a Costello and Turnbull, as leader and treasurer respectively. However, that won’t be so with Costello’s retirement.
It is sickens me that Brough was defeated in Longman. He was a talented politician and had potential to be Leader or another high-profile shadow minister.
I think the first inquiry will be in to the Haneef matter. Rudd has flagged that and I get the impression he intends to implement his programme asap.
Tiptoe may have a two-election strategy in mind. Someone else as human sacrifice for the first election, while Tiptoe ‘mentors’ up and comers (ie builds his support base). An election loss, and Tiptoe is available as white knight. He appears to have a psychological problem with being a front runner. Alternatively, he may be getting ready to pull the plug and go out and make a mozza. That would leave field that looks a bit like it has had a good dose of EI. Meanwhile, there must be something wrong with the Murray water by the time it gets to Adelaide. Dolly appears to believe that the voters must have got it all wrong. To fix it all he has to do is call for a Please Explain.
Okay, I lost my $200.00, but I’m happier than can be imagined.
Went out for breakfast this morning – I’ve never seen so many happy faces in Grayndler (the most depressed electorate in Australia, or so they said 2 years ago)!
This is good. Latham would have been better, but it’s good.
I knew waking up with Style Council’s “Walls come tumbling down” in my head was a good sign.
As for Costello’s resignation – whle Tip is a good nickname, I think VB (Victoria Bitter) may serve him well.
Maybe Robb is prepared to be the sacrifical lamb.
Just logged on for the first time since this morning – did I hear right that Matty Price passed away?
No doubt Costello remembers Gareth Evans’s complete failure to adapt to opposition after a long stint in government. Imagine having to answer your own phone!
Every early on in the campaign I wrote a post called ‘Women Ket to Election’. Can I get some feedback of what people think now the election is over.
http://ozdemocracy.com/?p=8
sorry ‘Women Key to Election’
Sorry Mad Professor, hadn’t read your entry at 163. Two devious minds at work.
Your predictions in QLD were worse than hopeless.
How’s that for feedback?
Adam,
Do you have an idea as to how many postal votes are expected in Bennelong?
4AM for me George (thats 5AM your time). You know where I was…History being made!
#183 – only 2 devious minds? I wouldn’t be surprised if hacks from both sides trawl this site for ideas!
ShowsOn @ 184
I already said I eat my own words like I said I would. There is such a think as a sore winner.
Don’t you love how Costello still think what he thinks matters:
Hands Off Futures Fund
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22818280-29277,00.html
Adam 173 – I totally agree with your views on the AWB crime. I just don’t think Rudd will go in that direction. I mentioned here some weeks ago that I personally have reasonable proof (from my previous work connections to a government agency) that Howard broke the law in regard to certain intelligence activities in Australia. Others know about this too but there won’t be any inquiry. If I stuck my head up, I’d be sent off to the gulag.
Adam – Why would the CFMEU be on thin ice? Because their left wing? If you go by that mantra then you would have to add the AMWU and CPSU no?
I raise this here because the earlier thread was closed, but I think K Jin’s comments about his view of Greens policy needs addressing.
K Jin suggests , at # 561 in the previous thread when suggesting that “The Greens are bad for Trees” that: “Greens are bad for trees because: They stop back burning during the winter and so in the summer, the bonfire of the bush is all the bigger.
Now, I’m no expert on the policies of all parties on this matter, but I AM aware that the Green’s policy on Biological Diversity includes the goal of:
“effective habitat management, including ecologically appropriate use of fire.“
It also , in its policy on Natural resource management states that:
“The Australian Greens believe that:
Australia’s natural resources must be managed in accordance with the principles of intergenerational equity, biodiversity conservation and respect for the traditional ownership of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples.”
I’ve worked with Aboriginal groups in Australia for more than 30 years, and I’ve seen traditional Aboriginal fire management practices in action in remote parts of Australia. I’ve yet to see anything in the policy of any other parties, I’m afraid, that recognises the importance of such things.
K-Jin, myths like your suggestions here are easy to start but often harder to stop. If you can show me where a Greens policy suggests that they are opposed to controlled burns in situations where they are necessary and appropriate, please feel free to point them out to me.
I’m more than happy to accept that there may be particular situations where they have opposed such things from time to time, and more than happy to accept that they may well have “got such things wrong” on occasion too.
But it seems to me that in their policies they provide a recognition of the importance of environmental burns that you won’t actually find in those of other political organisations here. As I said, please point me to some concrete, documented, examples if I am wrong about this.
Cheers
Rod
Vale Matt Price
160 Flash
Here it is:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22781986-29277,00.html
He pretty much telegraphs what he was going to do.
O/T, but while looking at the AEC’s 2PP by Division page (http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseTppByDivision-13745-NAT.htm), I couldn’t help noticing the significant (15-20%) drop in voter turnout in many electorates, even where all polling places have returned results. Not being familiar with this stuff, I have to ask: is this actually indicative of a reduced turnout, or does it just mean they’re waiting for postal votes or somesuch?
Emphasis on the word “winner”.
Stephen it would certainly be interesting to know whether any one particular demographic aided Rudd’s election but I don’t think we can really know. What we do know is polling showed a weaker swing to Labor among women. Whether this is accurate or not I don’t know. Surprisingly most polling I’ve shown suggest women are more likely to vote for conservative parties.
Landeryou couldn’t possibly be serious about Kevin Andrews?
Costello has no clever plan to regain the leadership later on. He will quit fairly soon, probably after the first session of parliament. With big bucks jobs in the offing, he won’t be sitting on any backbench for too long. Good riddance.
197
Which polling are you using? I would like to have a look.
OK, Turnbull expected, Nelson I could understand, Hockey, yeh OK, but Andrews?
For the love of God, Allah, Buddha and anything else considered holy….
NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
“There is an unwritten agreement (I wouldn’t say a convention) between political parties not to hold serious inquiries into the activities of a previous government.”
Howard held inquiries into Keatings piggeries and labors Centennial House, both were bullsh*t muckraking inquiries desigend to embaress labor that did not find anything.
But as others have said Rudd said it is about the future and he was elected to fix the stuff ups and damage the libs have done to the Australian economy and society.
There won’t be any inquiries, the’yd be a huge waste of money, a Royal Commission costs upwards of $100 million, and time and just confirm what everyone already knows.
Interesting that Costello mentioned he’d now spend time deciding on a career outside of politics.
Wouldn’t the honourable thing to do be to resign immediately?
I’m not sure I like having our funds spent on subsidising Costello’s job search for up to 3 years.
Interesting Grog, thanks.
I think the next opposition leader COULD become the next PM for the following simple reason:
Sadly, the indications are reasonably strong that the economy could tank in the upcoming term through no fault of Labor. The US is on the brink on recession. One US investment bank said the US housing market right now is in its worst state since the Great Depression. And Australia has now recorded 17 consecutive years of expansion so statistically, some kind of crunch is on.
So Labor could get thumped, just as Whitlam did, with dire economic circumstances beyond its control – and pay the toll.
The best hope is that China keeps expanding at current levels without a hitch.
The Libs are pretty stupid, but Andrews as leader? don’t think so.
No 198
Costello was an excellent Treasuer Alex McDonnel. You talk about us living in the past, but if you’re going to keep mentioning Keating, you’re no better.
GP – when did I mention keating?
Re: the Lib base, I thought it was somehow apt that Howard couldn’t get through his concession speech for all the yobbo shouting of “Go Johhny”. That’s the current Lib base right there. Bay 13.
My thoughts on Turnbull (from Ozforums):
I think putting Turnbull as Liberal leader has the prospect of actually destroying the Liberal Party forever.
If you look at what is actually going on in the grass-roots branches in NSW – think the Kelly Gang in Lindsay, think the back-stabbing of Brogden, think the religious far-right – Turnbull is so completely out of step with these people that I cannot imagine a less suited leader for them.
He is moderate, he is a Republican, he was in the ALP, he is “soft” on social issues (gay rights), he is pro-Kyoto. If he is made leader there is the prospect of trench-warfare and a break between leadership and base.
Interesting times.
Having always looked forward to Matt’s articles, I felt so so sad to hear of his passing away. It was hard not to like him even though I did not know him personnally. My thoughts are with his family!!
Who will be the first to get stuck into Costello in the first sitting and how many minutes in?
Boerwar @29 Thanks
Johnny B Gon @58 and ruawake @71
“Nelson is an opportunist – AMA president who sold his soul to be in Govt.”
When he was AMA president he took it to the left after the rule of Bruce Sheppard. I remember at the time the commentary being about his support of Aboriginal Health, Gay Rights and the fact that he had an earring (shock horror!).
In politics there is always the balance of having to support some things you don’t like to get the things that are important to you up. Deciding which battles to fight is always difficult. From what has been said of the Howard years, there didn’t seem to be a lot of “melting pot of ideas” but rather a single rodent’s iron fist. So Nelson maybe an opportunist, or more kindly, he may have naively thought he could influence policy from within. With the Iron fist gone, him (and probably others, e.g. Petro Georgio) may pull the party back from the Brotherhood.
I suppose at the end of the day, like Rudd I’m prepared to give them the benefit of the doubt and try to see the best in most people – they were all working in different ways under the Howard dictatorship. Now the rat poison has been applied, I’m hoping Rudd will soften some of his policies and the wets of the Liberal party will find their voice.
I realise I maybe living with the fairies, hoping for the best in people, but it gets me through the day.
Oh dear. Still peddling the ‘Costello was an excellent treasurer’ myth. He will go down in history as the laziest treasurer since Howard. His one great achievement – giving us a new tax. Learn something about economics before making a judgment on Cossie’s skill as a finance man.
Flash @ 203
I main problem with China is that its big export is cheap manufactured products to places like the US. China could be in for a slow down if the US falls.
I’m not so pessimistic Flash.
But.
The next opposition leader could be the next PM, if s/he is good enough to stick around till at least 2013. (and probably 2016)
Generic Person Says:
“Costello was an excellent Treasuer Alex McDonnel. You talk about us living in the past, but if you’re going to keep mentioning Keating, you’re no better.”
Costello didn’t have the balls to take over the leadership when he could have. He coasted along as treasurer (the “laziest” ever?). He lost the election (that’s right, remember the “team”) and now he’s resigned and doesn’t wanna play any more. He’s a loser and history will remember him as the no-action treasurer.
GP – Costello was a suburban lawyer with no knowledge of economics. He basically just read out the documents provided by all the Economics PhD s in Treasury. He paid off government debt by selling the family silver like Telstra. Then along comes China with buckets of money for our minerals. Blind Freddie could have run the economy well over the past five years. Costello was a gutless, bully boy fraud.
Condolences to Matt Price’s family and friends. Far too young to go.
That much is true I admit. Opposition Leader after a defeat is not a fun job. But in Costello’s case it fits in with past behaviour. He presented in this campaign as part of ‘the team’ (we can argue whether this was willingly or grudgingly), but if they had won, presumably he would have been happy to accept the prime ministership.
Costello failed to take any opportunity to challenge, even when he had the numbers (after APEC, for example). The fact remains that he does not have, and never has had, the requisite ‘killer instinct’. He was happy to have it handed to him but some (OK, a lot) of thankless flogging is suddenly below him.
Whatever you think of that, the fact is that his departure has suddenly left the Libs spectacularly lacking in top-level ‘talent’, or at least anyone who has cred with the electorate at large. As Possum observed over on his site, the disloyalty is plain for all to see. And one presumes that cuts both ways.
Man of steel.
Rust in peace.
Yes, so sad about Matt Price. Rest in peace. I am glad he had the little amount of time/warning he did to say his good byes and make his peace. We are the poorer to his passing.
BV,
I have to disagree with you. The Liberal base still remains the North-Shore/Eastern Suburbs set – moderate conservatives, who are economically conservative but socially progressive. This is why the blue-ribbon Liberal seats are Bradfield and Higgins – they personify this mindset perfectly.
The problem with the Libs is that their membership base (not their voting base) is ultra-conservative in NSW. They are the disgusting runts who think that playing sexual or racial politics is a perfectly acceptable tactic to win seats or preselection – people like Alex Hawke, Michael Towke, David Clarke and Jackie Kelly.
Malcolm Turnbull (and Brendan Nelson and Joe Hockey) all come from the traditional Liberal base. The only chance that the traditional Libs in NSW have a chance of wresting power from the Uglies is if one of the above three become leader of the Federal party and impose their will on the State party. Otherwise, you’re likely to see more incidents like what happened to John Brogden…
Should Costello resign, I will fully support him. It gives him a chance to start a new life. There is no need to imprison him for the next three years. It will also give the Liberal a chance to inject someone new from Higgins. In this way someone would be making a positive contribution in Parliament and at the same time would be better serving Higgins. Costello in the meantime would flourish outside Parliament. This makes so much of sense to me – everyone wins. I should say I am a Labor supporter!
There is one iron rule about new governments – the predictions of what they will be like almost always turn out to be untrue, that’s why new leadership is exciting!
Keating did more in his first 12 months than Costello did in 11.5 years.
Did Costello actually ever have an original policy idea? He says the future fund was his idea, but why do we need to lock away a few billion only to cream off the interest every year? Why not just pay for things when you want to do something, or give it back by lowering taxes?
The future funds are really just something to talk about, they aren’t actually good policy.
Keating was right on Costello – he spent 11 years swinging in a hammock.
He will be largely forgotten; remembered only as a political warning for those young ambitious politicians who think everything will get handed to them.
True, not many people thought Hawke and Keating would be as successful as they turned out to be when elected in 1983. No one knew they would create the modern Australian economy in the way they did.
Like most of the people at my ALP/Green election party last night, I was disappointed in Rudd’s speech — bureaucratic, heavily loaded with cliches and formulaic phrases, lacking fire. But today when responding to questions he was lively and engaging. I hope we see more of this Rudd.
On Julie Bishop, I can’t understand why Glen et al think she would be good in leadership positions. She’s of limited intelligence, narrow and rigid in her thinking (believe me). OK, she looks ‘well groomed’, but that’s not going to get her far. She’s more or less a younger version of Bronwyn.
Can I just say the De-Anne Kelly’s loss is one of the sweetest.
(at least she won’t have to worry about resigning over the RPP rorts lol)
The other rule is the calumny and evil of the old government must be exposed by the incoming government, shock horror budget black holes discovered in 1983 and 1996 that no one knew about! The horror, Right now a standard narrative is being discussed about the old government which will probably be debuted at the first sitting of parliament in feb 2008 – my tip 12 years of indolence in using good times to prepare australia for the future.
hahahahhh amazing! BetFair still offers bet on Bennelong
McKew $1.02 / Howard $15
Howard still has hope
Even though it was expected, I imagine he would’ve been feeling a bit of shock.
I actually really liked the part when he said we have to build a new consensus, and end the division based on union & business, federal & state, environment & economic growth. Of course that’s very Third Way Blair / Clinton talk, but it is true.
I can’t believe we just went through an election campaign when one side wanted to talk constantly about unions and interest rates. My early prediction for 2010 is that unions won’t be an issue at all.
Kennett was on tv tonight saying Costello was ditching the Libs when they needed him the most.
But it ’s the truth Edward.
George it may happen that there could be another crack at Higgins in a by-election. I wouldn’t be surprise.
ESJ:
“my tip 12 years of indolence in using good times to prepare australia for the future.”
That’s your “tip”??? It should be the bleeding obvious!
The Higgins by-election will be quite soon.
Aussieguru01 Says:
“George it may happen that there could be another crack at Higgins in a by-election. I wouldn’t be surprise.”
I hope so mate.
I’m so glad someone else enjoyed this! The parliament will be improved immeasurably without her pretending Labor are communists.
This would be true. The Coalition pissed billions against the wall in the form of massively increased transfer payments – $90 billion in fact.
The future fund is a con – sell off income producing assets so they can be invested in – income producing shares.
Codswallop.
Fair go, Costello needed SOMETHING to talk about during all those question times.
What a disgusting effort by Costello!. No true intestinal fortitude. No feeling of responsibility to the party and crafting its recovery. Just what one would expect from a bully-boy.
does anybody know who the “father” or “mother” of the house will be?
De-Ann Kelly’s last words in parliament:
Mrs De-Anne Kelly—Mr Deputy Speaker, I rise on a point of order. I understand the Leader of the Opposition supports this, but he is not in the House. He is never here.
Interjection
The DEPUTY SPEAKER (Hon. IR Causley)—There is no point of order. That was a frivolous point of order.
lol well done. On your way.
I recall a while back that De Anne Kelly was publicly criticising veterans – not long after she was made junior minister for Defence. She failed at that and was dumped.
I predict that, as a result of the Coalition scare campaign at this election, unions will enjoy something of a minor resurgence – they will be kind of trendy, intrigueing, macho in a good way.
3/4 down the page
http://www.crooksandliars.com/
Edward StJohn Says:
“does anybody know who the “father” or “mother” of the house will be?”
ESJ, that’s one bit of our democracy I’d rather they dispensed with.
Quess what guys I have just placed a $500 bet on the Australian Labor Party to win the next election,
The ALP’s odds are currently at $1.16 to ANY OTHER PARTY at $4.60 at Centrebet
And if the next election campaign is anything to go by what has happened in the past 6 weeks
I can hardly wait
I agree to some extent that Costello lacked the conviction to challenge for the leadership when he had the opportunity. But even if he had challenged at APEC, I doubt whether it would have made much difference, especially with Rudd so well established. Any change was best made in 2006, not a nanosecond before the election.
As for thankless flogging being below him, well I think it is below him. He’s been a successful Treasurer for more than a decade and is now thrust into the political wilderness for a minimum of three years. A man his age can achieve more in the commerical world and retain a family life. I don’t think I can blame him, as much as it is a disappointing loss to the party leadership-wise.
The liberals do have talent on the front bench. It is a shame, however, that Mal Brough was defeated in his seat. While people may disagree with the intervention, Brough was a talented politician and he came across as reasonably honest and moderate. Internal sources are very much aggrieved by the loss, as they considered him leadership material.
As for top-level talent, there is no doubt that Turnbull is talented. He has had real world experience and I think he will do well as leader, if elected.Yes, he is politically inexperienced, but I doubt Downer, Nelson or Abbott will be as marketable.
My choice for leadership team Malcolm Turnbull & Julie Bishop with Senate leader Marie Payne’s (NSW)
In writing that the Liberal Party needs to reform its membership base which appears to be dominated by two groups.
The older members longing for Menzies
The younger ones tend to be negative and nasty
The Liberal Party needs to return to its roots, may I suggest its time for a proper membership drive, currant membership is less than 10,000 now in the UK the Conservatives have a membership base of around 300,000.
Based on the Australian population the Liberal Party should have a membership of around 100,000 but this will mean the Liberal Party will need to get in touch with the 20 and 30 somethings.
To show my point at the height of Menzies the Kooyong young Liberal branch had more members than the whole of the currant Young Liberals.
Yes its true that people are busier today, but that is an excuse run by both Parties, the people see our Parties for what they are.
The Liberal Party has become a miserable nasty and extreme outfit that hasn’t moved with the times and while the ALP has its faults at least its a more open and diverse Party
Henceforth I will no longer refer to Julia Gillard as Medicare Gold, henceforth it will be Oskar Mk2.
Nelson was in Young Labor (or whatever it was called then) when he was a student at Flinders Uni. He was not liked & by all reports was a d*****d
Tiptoe probably is not thinking about two elections. He is probably hardly able to think at all. Very difficult to have all that power withdrawn. His boss ratted on him. His mates did not consult him at APEC time. He got to thrash the hapless, but he never found his ticker. when it might have counted. Hardly anybody out there liked Tiptoe. After the election, he didn’t talk to Ratty and Dolly, nor they with him, so they talked him up. Then he announced his intention to tiptoe quietly to the political sunset. No wonder his face was so full of pain during his talk on election night.
Third rule of post elections:
Journalists must write articles about whats wrong with the party that lost.
Evening fellow bludgers
ESJ is right. The way out of opportunistic election promises is the well worn line: “we didn’t know how bad it was”. I expect at least two Royal commissions – AWB and immigration and several other relevations.
I note Alan Ramsay’s column in yesterday’s Herald in which he referred to the 300 big recycling bins in the basement of Parliament House on Friday. You can bet Peter Shergold and the other mandarins will be shredding everything including the yellow pages right now. They’ll still find enough to get the libs chewing at their own guts for the next two or three years.
It’s the political equivalent of Balmain folk dancing. You knock them down then you make sure they can’t get up.
Can’t wait.
No 224
Future funds are good policy. Almost all economists I heard that commented on the elections said that with existing inflationary pressures, governments should be saving more.
Is it true that Matt Price has passed away?
Sadly Yes
Dogs, yes.
Regarding Andrews, I understand that parties tend not to investigate their predecessors but there is surely still risk here. Haneef’s case is still in the courts and will come back to bite him in the new year. There will be no reason for Labor to protect him, so soem quite embarrassing information could come to light without the powers of office and Keelty to protect Andrews. A high risk IMO.
Whoever the Libeals pick as leader it would be amazing if Labor lost in one term. As I said last night Glen you shoudl get Brough back into parliament, and I can’t remember the last time Slipper or Somylay did anything useful. It is true the demographics of those electorates are changing, but that is the reality of the world, and if the Libs are to have any hope, they must find candidates who can survive in that environment.
Glen, please understand I have no love of the current Liberal party but this is meant constructively. I grew up in Queensland and saw what a weak opposition does to governments and ultimately democracy. The Liberals need to rebuild, and can’t afford to carry deadwood in safe seats where future leaders could develop. If you guys realy want to be brave, you shoudl merge teh Nationals or reinvent them too, as they are no longer even potent in country areas, as Dawson and Leichardt demonstrated.
Happily Labor took some hard decisions before the election and now has some good new blood and a solid leadership team. Good for them.
my 2 cents
Damien J – 255 Pls read my 161 – No royal commissions
Fourth and final rule : one of the anticipated stars of the new team turns out to be a dud, my new team pick, step forward “Peter Garrett”.
Gee Hansard is fun.
This is from Jackie Kelly’s valedictory speech:
http://parlinfoweb.aph.gov.au/piweb/view_document.aspx?id=2765257&table=HANSARDR
I owe John [Howard] a lot and wish him every success in the future and hope he sees my 12 years of unexpected service as repayment. I apologise for not being with John in the trenches for this one, but Gary [Clark] is thrilled that he finally rates higher in my priorities than the Prime Minister.
I think Rudd can make an exception with regard to a full inquiry into the Haneef case – because it IS about the future. It is about the proper application of terrorism laws, and that is very much about tomorrow’s challenges.
Grog,
If Hansard gives u a buzz u need to get out more, cant you got out and demand a closed shop or close down a business somewhere?
ESJ not necessarily – if he’s given Arts he’ll be fine. (At least the ALP put out an Arts policy!)
One more thing, on Lindsey I have no idea what the truth is, but I refuse to believe that the candidate didn’t know what her husband, her former bosses’ husband and various campaign team members were doing. Plus the leaflets didn’t print themselves. The damage is done now anyway. The sooner they all admit the truth and apologise the sooner the Libs can move on. Does anyone know what the relevant penalties are?
Meant in jest Grog, nah transplants dont work Grog (at least in ALP politics).
And unlike the coalition, Labor put out a defence policy.
Good evening fellow bloggers, this is my first post since the voting started.
I had to dash down to Sydney this morning.
The result was better than I had predicted for Kevin Rudd. I could only find 85 seats for his team. The two party preferred was spot on.
It’s an amazing outcome.
I’m not actually surprised that John Howard has lost his seat. When the analysis is done it will be found that the crucial votes were in the Chinese and Korean communities.
We are now to have a swag of by-elections. It will anger the voters and there are likely to be big swings in those seats.
If Alexander Downer does a runner that seat may go to Labor.
Obviously Malcolm Turnbull will want to have a go at being PM. How long is he prepared to wait? As he has now fulfilled most of his other ambitions he may be prepared to wait nine years.
He might not get it this time but really who else could match him?
I couldn’t imagine Andrew Robb matching Kevin Rudd. He will be at best an interim leader of the Opposition if he gets it.
Unless the world economy goes belly up Kevin Rudd will be there for a long time.
Heard that Chijhof (sp?) has split with her husband she is so peeved. Anyone know whether this is true?
Flash – I agree there probably will be an inquiry into Haneef. Rudd will want to pull ASIO and the Fed cops into line.
I find it surprising that people are condemning Costello for quitting (leadership roles) today.
Seems to me that the bloke’s done his best for 17 years in Parliament and 11 years as Treasurer, and if he now thinks it’s in his best interests to have three years on the back bench and then get out – why is that a problem? And, I might add, the timing of his announcement was perfectly ok as well.
EdStJ
I may have missed it earlier but you promised to reveal your identity today. Was this a core promise?
Swing Lowe – that’s the point. I Turnbull becomes leader, to appeal to the traditional voter base, the current right-wing membership base may possibly go nuts and try to cut him down and push their own kind.
Richard Jones the last line in your post is the important part, will your biofuels shares survive a downturn? Go for recession proof stocks – newspapers, gambling etc in my view
I think the father of the House is Phillip Ruddock!
Very sorry to here Matt has gone ,condolences to his family and friends ,did not always agree with him ,his journalism was always entertaining and thoghtful,RIP.
MNC – only if the Liberals won, not non-core, non-operative.
Chris Curtis, lets assume Ruddock (class of 74) leaves who is next? Must be someone from the class of 83 (if any are left?)
Boerwar
It (Chojhof’s split) has been reported but that is why I am sceptical. Very convenient timing and if your spouse was that much of a bigot and you weren’t, you would think you would know after a few years of marriage. Besides, if Kelly meant her “joke” explanation then her boss was a bigot too, and why would you put up with that if you weren’t. Doesn’t add up IMO.
I see your point, but over the last two months we have been told repeatedly that Costello will be the next P.M. of the country after Howard. Only now do we find out that his heart wasn’t really in it, and he can’t wait to get the hell out of parliament.
192 Rod. K Jin has been banned.
Boerwar – I read about the so called ’split’ between Chijoff and her husband this morning. She announced it yesterday morning – I think it was a stunt to try to save her arse in the election. I’ll bet they are ‘reconciled’ soon.
I trust The Australian will publish a retrospective of Matt Price’s best columns (and there were many) with all the proceeds to go to his family.
Who else will bail out or head for the bilges? Any guesses? Can’t believe that it will only be Tiptoe.
lol ESJ. yes I need to get out more.
I know Garrett is not a politician. But I live in hope. Seriously doubt he’ll be given Environment.
Indigenous Affiars (his other big love) is also probably too hot right now as well. But then no one would doubt his passion for it.
But my tip is Arts and Heritage. (which means the Dept of Communications, IT and the Arts will probably split up (it also has sport in it).
WOnder what they’ll call the Dept of Emplyoment and Workplace Relations?
I’m betting signwriters will be busy in Canberra for the next month or so.
No 271
I wouldn’t be surprised if Chijoff is angered. Though, even I expected Lindsay to go before the scandal broke cover.
Chris B, why was K Jin banned?
Steveo @ 248
That’s crazy mate, 1.16 is a 16% return over three years.. you would make more putting the money in an ING account with no risk and your money at call!
271 – she was last seen wearing no wedding ring, and when asked, said she didn’t know where he was, and hadn’t spoken to him.
Ha!
Lindsay was long gone before the scandal. I have no idea why they even bothered.
ESJ,
I don’t know who’s next as the FotH, and I don’t want to trawl through bios. to find out. I’m not even certain re PR.
No 292
You could say that for any seat, but the aim is not to make it a safe Labor seat.
Just a quick point, not related to anything before it…
I don’t get the Brough love-in.
I haven’t followed him closely, but he look sand sounds like an A class tool to me.
I don’t know what the hell is going on with the NT intervention – the motives stated don’t match the action for mine, the money never stacked up and there’s a general stench about it, not the least because it happened a few months before an election loss it seems everyone (who counted) in government knew was coming.
Brough is either the fall-guy or the mastermind – an idiot or nasty piece of work.
Hockey is also in one of these categories; take your pick.
Flash, I’ve spent the arvo reading some of Price’s columns and blogs on the Oz’s website. Just great stuff.
Ruddock is the other member of the class of 74 (with Howard)
Tend to agree re Steveo @ 248
Even if you just wait for the first decent Labor scandal to break, or for Turnbull’s star to rise a little, the odds on Labor would improve considerably from $1.16. Let’s face it – Labor was never, to my knowledge, as short as that during this campaign.
Also sympathy to Matt Price; I hadn’t followed the story and that is quite tragic. Maybe it is only my perception but I can’t help reflecting that a lot of journalists seem to die young. Sympathy to all concerned.
The modern Liberal party is a means spirited, cynical, divisive bastard of an organisation.
Similar to our ex-Government and PM really.
Father of the Senate after 1 July 2008 will be Senator Ron Boswell, first elected in 1983.
Edward St John, many of my shares are hot rocks and they have a guaranteed future. Actually I’m going for gold in the main. Gold is rising towards $A1,000 an ounce. The Chinese currently hold very little (2%) and will want to swap their one and a half trillion dollars for other currencies and gold. The Indian economy is rising and they love their gold. South African production is down again. There are a couple of Australian companies which are vastly undervalued at present and will become even more undervalued as gold rises in Australian dollars. Gold in the long term is headed towards $US2,500 an ounce. Seems impossible? Just watch.
So when do we get to see Kevin McDonald’s dirt file on Rudd and Julia??
lol
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Rudd-pleased-WA-union-heavy-has-quit-ALP/2007/11/16/1194766944220.html
Tip got his name from Paul Keating
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/
costello-all-tip-no-iceberg/2007/03/05/1172943358207.html
Regarding Chinese exports to US & flow through effects. The Chinese have been investing a significant part of their massive surpluses in US Treasury Bonds. In the event of a decline in the US it would clearly be in their own interest to increase this pattern, thus making funds available for the usual practice of US governments (with support from interdependent countries including China) bailing out the private sector,as has already happened to a modest degree in both the US & UK. A negotiated adjustment of relative exchange rates between the US$ & the Chinese currency (as occurred between the US & Japan in the early 1980s). This would force up US interest rates – hurting the poorest & some businesses, but would simultaneously attract funds into the US which would result in a managed crisis as per the 1982 debt crisis in Latin America & a serious of similar bail outs in Mexico in the 1990s. This would hurt the world economy, especially the poorest countries, but would be likely to sustain a reasonable level of growth in China. The so-called tsunami would be grossly exaggerated. The free-market is a myth. Learn some basic political economy before making ridiculous claims about treasurers’ competence levels.
295,Totally agree ,both lard heads with no substance,Hockey feeilng sorry for his staff,were they on AWA’S ,as if he really cares,Brough should be a race caller.
“The Liberal Party needs to return to its roots…”
This would be my ideal situation/fantasy:
After repeated attempts to unite the moderates and extremists, and after another crushing defeat in 2010, the Liberal Party becomes completely unelectable, both federally and at state level. The Liberal Party then begins a rapid descent into minority party status as it becomes confined to the hard Right, either along with Family First or usurping Family First. The moderates – Doctor’s wives, etc. – shift to the Greens. And so begins the rise of the Greens as Australia’s second major party… the Liberal Party consigned to the fringes of Australian politics.
To me, this is 21st century stuff.
why would the Libs expose Turnbull to the task of eliminating the uglies?
it is suicide. the uglies will crush him.
the Libs need Turnbull in 4 years time.
better to let an expendable nuff nuff like Robb do all the hard yards.He’ll do what the Party needs and then be dumped one way or the other.
i don’t see another option for them.
if they put Turnbull in now, the uglies will fight and Labor will giggle.
On broken promises etc,
Rudd will be able to get away with a lot and still cruise back in (probably with an increased seat majority) in three years time.
The one thing he won’t get away with is if the economy stuffs up. If that happens, the electoral retribution will be brutal, as long as the Libs look credible.
I would have thought Turnbull just has to be leader, if they’re fair dinkum. He’s the only one with the profile and the ability to distance himself from Howard on issues like climate change, Iraq and education.
Nelson – no charisma whatsoever.
Bishop – seems too lightweight.
Robb – too obscure and too much of a JWH man.
Abbott – nothing needs to be said.
OK, who’s done the biggest political dummy spit in Federal politics in the last few years? Costello or Latham?
Maybe they should go on telly together and badmouth their respective parties.
It would get a very wide audience!
Grog,
Joe, not Kevin. Kevin is Kevin Reynolds.
If 7 want to spice up there coverage in 2010 they should call that pair.
311 Chris lol I always get the two of them confused!
Bill and Ben on the WA union movement.
wpc @ 36: while the material distributed in lindsay, per se, wasn’t racist, their intention in distributing it definitely WAS, appealing to, what they perceived as being, the latent racism of the good burghers of lindsay.
it backfired spectacularly of course not least of all because they got caught in the act but also because the people whom they imagined were going to respond in this wave of anti-muslim (and hence anti-labor) sentiment seemed in the main, when interviewed on the msm , not to be racist at all. in fact, most of them said they were appalled and many said they were changing their vote to back the labor man.
it’s a delicious irony i think that racism has come back to smack john howard in the kisser, not only in lindsay but also in his own seat. even if the jackie kelly thing hadn’t happened i get a feeling that because bennelong has now got so many asian constituents they became a critical group whose support he absolutely needed to win. many of these people remember his statements in the 80s about asian immigration and many, i’m sure, must have really delighted in punishing him now for what he said openly back then and all his racist antics since.
howard has been real and truly hoisted on his own petard ,.. silly bitch
262 Blogs moved on a bit but… I think you re underselling Garrett. He is one of the exciting new(ish) faces of new Labor and epitomises the anti-political narrative espoused by The Piping Shrike. Rudd explicitly commented about Garrett’s so called gaffe that “things are bad when you can’t have a joke anymore” which to me is a vote of confidence.
My bet is that Garrett will be environment minister and will enthusiastically sell the consensus message that transforms the growth vs environment arguments of the past. Also if the Greens want to be viable in the new regime they will have to be putting up costed business cases with KPI’s and defined outcomes to get look in.
Robb is a shocker,looks like he has been out with Ben Cousins.
Philip Ruddock is currently the longest-serving member of the House (1973). If he were to resign, and assuming Howard (1974) has been defeated, the longest-serving member would be Wilson Tuckey (1980). Senator John Watson (Lib, Tas) would be the longest-member of the Parliament (1977). His term will end on 30 June. The longest-serving Senator will then be Ron Boswell (1983). The longest-serving Labor member is Roger Price (1984), who will apparently become Speaker.
Richard Jones I would never have picked you for having the gold bug, you must have a very pessimistic view of the future of the economy. Have you read Jim Rodgers on commodities? Worth a read
Joint fathers of the house, Roger Price ALP and Alex Downer (1984)
Yes I forgot Tuckey.
Price as speaker, maybe Crean?
307 – Noocat
I think you just blew my mind. It has the ring of truth to it.
Saying things about Barry Cassidy that were not nice.
Noocat @ 307,
A scenario like this could play out. It would have unforeseen consequences for all, though, for example:
- there’d be an influx of people into the Labor party who currently support the Liberals, which would change the culture of the Labor Party
- there’d be an outflow from the Labor Party of people who are currently in the Left- they’d join the Greens and significantly change the culture of the Greens. The influence of green policies over the next 40-50 years will depend more on whether global warming is as bad as (or worse than) expected, than it will on party structures and names.
Thanks for the info Chris @ 282
I will accordingly stop wasting my breath!
Cheers
Rod
Not only not nice… as if he’d spent time on another planet or ingested large quantities of cocaine.
Labor could of course amend the laws so that there is a ten year limit on records from the Howard era which can be revealed. We could have a never ending feast of the skullduggery of the past twelve years on slow drip feed beginning from 1996. March 1996 records could be revealed first and every month another month’s worth of the Howard years can be released. It would be a fun read. Just call it the Myth busting project.
Wrong on Garrett, I’m afraid. He will be punished big time. Rudd may have tried to spin it but they are all furious that he could be so profoundly dumb – and this during an incredibly disciplined, well managed campaign. That will be remembered for a very long time.
ESJ @ 318, isn’t Ruddock now father of the House. (He got in in 1974 I think). Or have I missed his retirement announcement today?
Where’s Abbot?
#314
I’m surprised there wasn’t a larger swing against Kevin Andrews
Well Ruddock must be up there with the candidates for by-elections.
For mine the Libs should even look at transplanting Brough to Berowra. The ALP certainly had a similar contingency plan for Beazley to Greenway in 1996 which was talked about.
Two comments:
1. Shocked about Matt Price. Only the good die young. And he was really good.
2. Re AWB and Downer. Don’t need another enquiry. Just speed up the prosecutions, that have been on hold by the former govenrment (feels nice to say that!). I think the defence lawyers will have some very interesting information that we haven’t been able to hear, yet.
To clarify K Jin was banned for saying things about Barry Cassidy that were not nice and not true.
Is Robb the straw man for Turnbull? I can’t see Turnbull capturing the hearts and minds of the conservative homeland. I also can’t see why Turnbull wants this now. It is a poisoned chalice. My tip is that the libs will implode and the wets and moderates will coalesce around a different brand within five years. The loony far right will be in the wilderness, where it needs to be.
Dyno / Noocat -
The Labor party in its current incarnation is sufficiently centre-right (oh god that’s going to get me into trouble) as to present a welcome opportunity for some Liberal voters, particularly if the Libs get sucked into a “race to the bottom” with Family First.
The question then becomes: will these oh-so-mythical “Doctor’s Wives” feel at home in the Australian Greens party? My gut is they wouldn’t feel entirely at home in the party of 2007. The Greens are probably going to change more in the next 3 years than Labor will – and 2010 should show us if a migration is on…
Any thoughts on the Overington slap? Will The Oz do anything?
Maybe she’ll be Turnbull’s press officer? lol
Grog, I used to watch Bill and Ben and the unforgetable Weeeeeed 50 years ago. KR and JM do look alike, to say the least.
Andrew Robb is not leadership material. I have never been a fan of Paul Keating, but at leasrt he could put some passion into his words.
I’ve been trying to get through to my Lib staffer mate this morning, but no answer. Will keep trying though. The saga has not yet ended.
Tip is a disgrace. I have no reason to believe that Kevin will crash and burn, but the world economy isn’t getting any better and it could be that the Rudd Labor Government finds itself facing the sort of external pressures that Whitlam felt.
I’m confident that Rudd and his team will face these down far more successfully than Whitlam, but if we ever needed a confirmation that the Libs rang a scare campaign against Labor’s handling of the economy, it is Tip’s announced departure.
This is a man who on Saturday effectively told us that only he could stop Australia from becoming an Antipodean Weimar Republic, and on Sunday effectively said that it didn’t matter, and that he was off to make some money. No hanging around for 3 years doing the hard yards for him. Oh yes, Labor and its union thug mates will wreck the economy and wreck it in one term, but I can’t wait that long (and when, pray tell, did he think Howard was going to hand over?)
What a schmuck.
Still, he is who is he. One thing I have picked up from my staffer mate over the years is that Costello’s failure to challenge Howard was not simply gutlessness. He never had the numbers. Indeed, it was joked a couple of years ago that Petro Georgiou had a bigger grouping of hardcore serious support. He simply was not liked, whatever revisionist history his father-in-law Peter Coleman might like to spout. But gutlessness and laziness also had its place.
Still, it would be hypocritical of me not to want him to go, and go soon. His speech on Saturday night was probably the best he’s ever given, and it was still mediocre, especially when compared to Turnbull’s. Even if Labor implodes over the next few years (which I doubt), Costello must have known that there was still a hard core of Howardites in the party who resented Costello’s undermining over the years (as my mate pointed out). Despite the anointment (shades of Fraser and Peacock), life wouldn’t have been easy.
Talk about an unsafe and unreliable pair of hands. Good riddance.
329 Darryl Yes I thought Kevin Andrews would have a big swing against him.
I actually think we’ll get a good early view on Rudd very quickly – how will he treat Garrett?
If Garrett gets punished, that probably means Rudd will be (a) very focussed on winning at all costs in 2010 and (b) not all that interested in solving our real problems (surely Garrett’s the kind of person we need in an important job?).
I hope he doesn’t get punished.
No 319
David Hawker will be missed.
Ruddock has been father of the house for some time, he was elected in 73 in a byelection.
Of course Rudd will punish Garrett. Risk minimisation is one of Rudd’s guiding principles. Doesn’t mean Rudd can’t take Garrett’s counsel behind the scenes. If Garrett behaves himself, expect him in a minor ministry mid-term of perhaps after the next election.
Garrett is getting Arts. He’s been acting as the Minister-in-Waiting for Arts for the past several months…
337,Costello is and will always be a gug with no heart.
Kevin Rudd will be focused on winning in 2010 and 2013 and 2016…..
Yes Voter Boy – Costello is so worried about the financial tsunami comming that he wants to get a job in the sector.
And btw Voter Boy. Given the result, I have to say your posts from you Lib mate have proven to be right on the money.
Hhahahahahha whatever.
You’re kidding right GP? It’s generally accepted Hawker is the worst of the Howard speakers.
VBOW,
Costello’s entitled to make a decision for his own life that’s in the best interests of him and his family. He lost (in effect), so he’s decided to do something else.
How that makes him a “disgrace” is completely beyond my comprehension.
Whoever the libs put in as leader, HAS to be someone they can do without into the future, and who will probably retire before the next election.
They need to let things settle down, and get some kind of agenda formed before they put anyone with real prospects in the chair.
I reckon Abbot or Downer for those reasons, maybe Julie Bishop as deputy to balance off Julia G, if Bishop can hack the tokenism of it.
I think the libs are going to have major issues with gender balance going forward as their women are not the best performers, while the ALP has a whole crop of experienced women who have learned how in opposition. They have Gillard and Wong as operators, Roxon and Plibersek did well in the campaign and will define themselves in the next couple of years. And, St Max of Bennelong for heart.
Don’t think she will be a minister 1st term,( i think she’s too smart for that) but for slaying the dragon in its lair, she is on the road to icon status. Her inaugural speech in parliament will be one of the most awaited events for poly tragics i think.
But all that said, i really hope the libs can get their act together. It is not good for the country to have a weak opposition, and that they are so weak and divided is Howards fault. As always, he put his own wants and needs before his party or the country. I hope Rudd has learnt from that and if he lasts that long will leave the ALP in good shape when he goes.
Dyno, I agree. But on second thought, such a reconfiguration of the main parties might also coincide with the end of the old Left vs. Right continuum, ominously heralded by Rudd in his acceptance speech when he talked about the end of old divisions of environment vs. growth, public vs. private, employers vs. employees. A new way of defining the positioning of political parties could take place, whatever that might be.
OK how many members of parliament will not be eligible for Latham pensions ? 1/3?
Do the superannuation rules mean returning members like Belinda Neal and Sharryn from Hasluck do get pensions?
348 Lose the election please. You’ve got to remember the Liberals don’t have very high standards.
309 Dyno,
Even if the world economy goes belly up Labor will point the finger at Howard and Costello’s incompetent management of the windfall generated by the mining boom. Libs are out for at least 2 terms.
Re post 271/292 Does any one really believe that neither lady knew?
I suspect that they actively involved!
Yes imacca I think Kevin will commence by abolishing WorkChoices on Day 5, declaring a national Labor front forcibly combining AACI and the ACTU on Day 6 and rest on the seventh day.
David Hawker will be missed.
By who?
No 348
I don’t know where you get the “generally accepted” moniker, but Hawker was an excellent speaker, especially in his constant expulsion of ALP members.
David Hawker (1983) would be the next long serving Liberal after Wilson Tuckey.
I suspect there will be no members elected in the 80’s by 2010.
Lose the election please. I must say you do sound more like an ALP supporter now that we have won.
ESJ are you writing from Vorkuta? Didn’t know they had broadband out there.
Boerwar,
From my bunker on the Kamchatka peninsula dining on frozen deer actually.
One of the better things to come out of the election apart from the defeat of Brough was the rejection of the Liberal candidate for Leichardt. A former journalist who has worked for senior Libs thought she was just going to take over a safe Liberal seat. Centrelink awaits.
Hawker has been a very weak Speaker, nearly as bad as Leo McLeay. He will be another earky departure I expect, especially since his fellow Western District drone Stewie McArthur has gone.
Did Costello actually say that he’s going to spend the whole of this term on the backbench before getting a job in the private sector? I find that hard to believe. I’m sure he would want to go now, and I’m equally sure the new leader will want him gone. In fact the new leader will want the whole Howard Old Gang. By-elections in Higgins, Berowra, Mayo, Mackellar, Menzies and Wannon should provide an opportunity to bring in some new talent.
Yeah, that REALLY helped the coalition win the election.
but Hawker was an excellent speaker, especially in his constant expulsion of ALP members
Well, he certainly served the partisan interests of the (former) government well.
Woohoo! Hate to brag but most of my predictions were correct.
I predicted Labor to win 30 seats, they won 23.
I predicted Labor to win Bennelong if Howard lost the election… this came true.
I predicted Malcolm Turnbull to win Wentworth easily and that some Labor voters in here were dreaming. Turnbull is NOT in a marginal seat, it’s a Lib Safe seat, it was only marginal last election due to King(ousted Lib member) running as in independent. King recieved 18% in that election with Malcolm recieving 42%…. this is WHY Turnbull actually increased his vote this election!
I also predicted Turnbull would probably be the next Lib leader… Costello is pathetic.
Ahhh now if only I put money down
I suspect there will not be byelections anywhere for lib held seats for a while esp
in Queensland. Mr Ruddock & Mr costello promised to stay the full terms as Mps
I think they will keep their word.
I suspect KR will be spending substantial time in WA during his first term.
the (former) government
Ooh, it feels good to be able to say that.
Mick, on what the ladies knew: I suspect that Jackie K knew. Did they meet in her hous? There was form on this sort of stuff. Business as usual, perhaps? Not asserting, not even alleging. After all, a criminal act? About Chijhof I am less certain. The latter is hardly an Anglo name and the lady may have paid a personal price for that in the past. Not sure.
ROFL!
The mosque down the road in my neighborhood is letting off fireworks.
Today is a great day for Australia Fair.
“349
Dyno Says:
November 25th, 2007 at 9:46 pm
VBOW,
Costello’s entitled to make a decision for his own life that’s in the best interests of him and his family. He lost (in effect), so he’s decided to do something else.
How that makes him a “disgrace” is completely beyond my comprehension.”
On Saturday he was pleading with Australian voters to ensure he would spend at least another three years cheating his family of quality time with dad.
On Saturday it was vitally important that experienced people were kept at the helm to secure Australia’s prosperity.
On Sunday it was all out of the window once the immensity of the task ahead became apparent.
He is a disgrace, a coward, a sloth, and a blowhard.
And perhaps now his dead hand and that of his idiot chum Kroger can be released from the Victorian Liberal Party’s throat.
Who can provide a quote of Costello saying that he will waste the next three years of his life as a bored and frustrated opposition backbencher?
“The Greens are probably going to change more in the next 3 years than Labor will – and 2010 should show us if a migration is on…”
Marko, yep, could happen. I actually think that the biggest problem the Greens has is not their policy platform, although some refinement in this would be required, but in their marketing of it. They need to work harder to combat the old stereotypes of being loony Lefties or drugged-up hippies – they do not pose the kind of threat to the economy that many believe.
345 CC says -
(Kevin Rudd will be focused on winning in 2010 and 2013 and 2016…..)
If Kevin Rudd has learned anything it is not make the ‘Howard mistake” of thinking you can hang on to power like your ass would age like a good wine. No.
Kevin Rudd will do 2 or maybe 3 terms & bow out like Carr, Bracks & Beattie. He’s too smart to be caught out like that.
326 Flash. See Mumble. ” Rudd is a Conviction Politician”. Rudd needs other conviction politicians and that includes Garrett. Garrett didn’t lose Labor one vote except when he had to follow Labor’s Pulp Mill politics.
I disagree it was a well run campaign. It was a focus group campaign so deliciously disparaged by Keating. Don’t you remember the miles of typing on this blog frustrated that Rudd/Labor weren’t responding effectively to LP messages?
It’s lineball as to who was the greater Howard stooge:
Hawker as Speaker
Calvert as President
Fifield as Chairman of the committee colloquially known as Senate Estimates
I have often daydreamed about the kind of conversation these three would have over afternoon tea, sitting around glumly staring at their coffee, sighing about the difficulty of maintaining decorum, and limply concluding that there was really nothing they could do about it, because after all, they’re only the Speaker, the President and the Chairman.
I did HTV duty at Berridale, a small town of approx 500 voters in Eden Monaro down near the snowfields. A very hot but enjoyable day. ALP had shifts of 4 to 6 on in 3 shifts, greens had one in 2 shifts. Libs had 2 in 2 shifts. All the Libs on the upper side of 65. With one exception, sullen and slightly belligerent to others. On a couple of occasions, red neck farmers sons with the heightened sense of entitlement that comes with inheritance of a farm and a lifetime on the Govt tit whilst professing to be proud of their self reliance and independence showed symptoms of outright aggression, including shouldering female HTV personnel (accidentally of course). This is a booth that has never had an ALP majority, in 2004 Libs got about 68%, this time they got approx 58%.
I spoke to the OK lib HTV man towards the end of the day. He stated that he thought things would not go well for his man Nairn, but thought the Libs would hang on federally. I asked him if he thought there would be a three cornered contest next election if Nairn did lose. He replied that there probably couldnt, as the membership strength just wasnt there to do it. He claimed that for this election, Nairn was forced to pay for assistance with HTV, and he didnt know a member younger than 60.
Not a promising outlook for a blue ribbon area of a notionally marginal electorate.
ESJ, lol. My advice is take it a day at a time. It worked for Ivan.
For the Greens to improve they’ll need to move to the centre, which will lose them support from the left. Unfortunately I think they’ll just have to be happy feeding off scraps.
The Liberal leader will spend a lot of time in QLD and NSW.
It won’t help much though.
He didn’t explicitly say it. He tried to imply that he was there to serve for the people of Higgins, but it came off sounding like he could go anytime between now and 2009.
No 373
VoterBoy, your characterisation of Costello is truly pathetic.
Picture yourself in the same position, and I wonder whether you wouldn’t pursue a different path.
Let’s get this straight on Garrett:
All Labor contenders were on red alert because it was an election campaign. He meets a guy who identifies himself as a high profile radio presenter. And he makes a joke, the import of which undermines the entire Labor strategy..
I know I’m simply restating a much trawled over incident but when it is baldly stated like that, how can anyone in Labor trust this guy again, for a very, very long time?
Wow, Liberal hacks lose an election, and now they start spouting New Age garbage.
The Liberal Party had a BIG lesson yesterday. The Liberal Party has isolated thousands of voters with their arch-conservative social policies. Australians are basically a secular people. The Liberals have become too close to Family First and groups such as The Exclusive Brethren and Hillsong. Big Mistake!!!!! Australia is not the United States of America. I think all the ‘true’ Liberals should form a new party and leave the CONSERVATIVES to their fate. I dont see any future for the Liberal Party if they continue with their increasingly right-wing religious agenda.
Mad Professor @212. et. al.
Agreed: I’m looking forward to, starting tomorrow, the demolition of “Liberals are better at managing the Economy” meme.
Re Royal Commissions:
Those suggesting an enquiry into ASIO via Haneef. Rudd needs to be careful. The Spooks are suspicious of Labor and the Yank Spooks less so. I suspect there is still bad blood from when Lionel Murphy as AG raided ASIO.
For those interested two films to watch: “Mr Neal is entitled to be an agitator” and “The Falcon and the Snowman”.
However, my impression is that Rudd plays the ball not the man. I don’t see him as the sort of person who will seek out vengeance just for the sake of it. However, if it’s over bad process, that maybe a different sotry.
I still think he will get a junior ministry. But not cabinet until after the next election if he performs really well.
I’d agree with Adam about the prospect of by-elections brining new talent, but the NSW branch is in such dissaray, I’m not sure the talent pool is there. Who of any talent would want the prospect of 6+ years of opposition? Nope. The libs are sedt for implosion. It’s happened several times on that side of politics, it’s overdue.
“346
Grog Says:
November 25th, 2007 at 9:45 pm
Yes Voter Boy – Costello is so worried about the financial tsunami comming that he wants to get a job in the sector.
And btw Voter Boy. Given the result, I have to say your posts from you Lib mate have proven to be right on the money.”
Yes. Again I don’t think he had access to internal polling and so on (certainly not up to date stuff), but he is an inveterate gossiper and is sufficiently centrally placed to hear snippets of a lot of what was going on around the country.
I haven’t gone back through everything he said. I think he was right about the Sydney mortgage seats and Queensland (although even the dogs were barking this). He was wrong about Higgins, or at least any swing he said had been there appears to have disappeared. But the sense of panic – which I always felt was a good indicator of what the polls must be saying – he captured very well.
I’m now dying to find out the inside goss on Cos, and the new field for the leadership race.
374 Adam
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/costello-wont-stand-for-leadership/2007/11/25/1195947541163.html
A01,
You are right about the need for leaders not to hang on too long, but the lure of power is very strong, and 2016 is only nine years away.
373 VoterBoy. Ditto for me.
“Spend more time with my family” is the biggest b*llshit excuse in politics.
On Friday it was essential for the future of Australia’s very survival that Costello be in the driver’s seat.
Now meh, he can’t even be bothered to try for 3 more years?
Obviously he’s all ripple no tsunami.
ShowsOn, thanks. I though so. He will be gone before Parliament resumes in February. And so should Ruddock, Downer, Hawker and Bishop be gone. (Bishop the Witch, not Bishop the Dominatrix).
And isn’t the NSW branch still run by the right, even after last week?
I don’t think Turnbull or Nelson would want 2 or 3 fundamentalist wackos taking over safe seats.
VBOW @ 373,
Costello didn’t get the job of “being an experienced person at the helm” anyway – his side lost the election. So what’s the logic of your argument? Are you saying he should try to be Treasurer/PM from the Opposition benches?
He’s had enough and he’s quit. Just like hundreds of politicians before him who’ve lost. I can’t actually see anything wrong with that.
Anybody who thinks the ALP will win the next NSW State election is certainly optimistic. The libs will surely bounce back there?
I think the Liberals need 6.4% in NSW baswitzer, big ask.
No 385
What is so new age about what I said?
I very much doubt whether anyone who has spent 11 years in top level government positions could be blamed for wanting to do something else after being thrust into opposition.
does anybody think danna vale will go as well? or even farmer after his tantrum especially if he sees all the others go.
The choice of the lyrical baldster was always going to be bad tactics. The main game was to get the centre and leave the Greens to take the left wing. In this scenario the lyrical baldster was going to be used by the Gov to call into doubt the sincerity of the centre thrust. Simultaneously, the Greens were going to be able to portray him as a piker. No wins at all there for the Labs. Meanwhile, he appears to have learned from his mistakes, is no dill, and probably deserves a run as a junior min or parl sec in less dangerous waters.
The ritual knife the leader mid term exercise is scheduled for Feb 2009 in NSW too
I’m in the ‘Costello is a waste of space camp’
He can chose to do whatever he wants, that’s true, but that party machine invests a lot of time and money in each and every candidate (a lot more on some..).
He’s proven himself today, and on many other occasions to be a fair weather fellow. The instant he’s seen a cloud he’s disappeared up his mom’s skirt….on several occasions. Now when his party needs some ‘heavy lifting’ done, again, he’s nowhere to be found.
I don’t doubt he’s made the right decision for himself and his family, but waiting till someone else forces your hand is pretty poor form. He’s had so many occasions to put his own stamp on his own destiny…nothing!
375 – Noocat
The trouble is, the Greens don’t market at all. They somehow feel it beneath them. God, what they could do with a few pollsters and an image consultant…
No 397
If any government deserves to be tossed out, it certainly is the Dilemma NSW Government. Pity about the admittedly weak opposition.
Jacky Kelly has moved in with the loser from Lindsay.
What DOGS?
#406 – what? in a relationship?
I think O’Farrell is in with a real shot of taking out Iemma.
You must be like the Young Liberals at my booth yesterday who claimed that Iemma was worse than Mussolini.
Not many liberals left in the liberal party these days…
The Greens need to actually learn to play nasty. For one they need to preference with the Liberals in the inner-city seats to get into second spot and vote labor out on preferenes. Labor (under the hand of Chairman Albanese) has certainly had no qualms about teaming up with the Liberals on inner city councils to keep the Greens out.
The Greens will never be taken seriously as a ‘major’ party until a name change. While they have more policies other than the environment, but with a name like ‘The Greens’ makes them look like a one policy party.
CC don’t forget that 4 year terms might become a realty. That could be 3 + 4 + 4. Or leave a year before the end of his 2nd termto make way for who ever is inline. I’m just glad we have a 1st term.
No 404
Even with fancy marketing and focus groups, lunacy cannot be disguised.
WHAT! They’re lesbian lovers? Is that why the knew more about what each other knew than the whereabouts of their husbands?
Maybe their husbands are gay lovers, and it was all just cover?
Marko-
we don’t “market” because we don’t have the funds that the Major parties or the religious minor parties do. Believe me , we try. And we definitely need to do it better
but virtually the entire camapign is run by unpaid or very part-time staff.
I think they do a great job with such meager resources. (I’d love to see that change!)
J.
It works for Family First.
DOGS. What do you mean?
So will the Daily T headline tomorrow be “It’s the Telegraph wot won it”?
GP How about Mal Brough for NSW opposition Leader he is unelectable in Queensland. It seems to be the only job that hasn’t been canvassed for him by Liberal hacks today.
410 Edward StJohn They would not have got any part of my vote if they did. And a lot of other peoples as well.
No 409
I do think O’Farrel has a chance, but the problem is that the NSW Liberal opposition is starved of talent.
But then again, so is Dilemma’s camp. Reba Meagre Meagher anyone?
Well GP if Reba Meagher is so poor how come the Liberals havent been able to force her out?
413 Generic Person “Even with fancy marketing and focus groups, lunacy cannot be disguised.” It even shows through in that statement.
GP-
a little respect, Buddy. We’re the third party, and neither side of politics can actually afford to forget it, no matter how much it pisses them off.
It seems the entire Liberal party is starved of talent, hence they’re in opposition everywhere.
AAHHHHHHHhhhhhhhhhhh the smell of victory is swwwwwwwwwweeeeeeeeeeeeett.
I had to indulge in my HUBRIS.
No 419
I’m not into booting out other members to save talent. It’s unfair and undemocratic.
My understanding is that if it wasn’t for the support (discipline?) imposed by the PM’s office over the last few years, the Lib NSW branch would have self-destructed ages ago. Where is the strength for the Libs? Victoria – don’t think so. WA? umm… The fact is they’ve had a bunch of superannuants, business flunkies, wood ducks and yes men queuing up for seats. Turnbull is the notable exception. Hawker is a prime example but to this add Dutton, Morrison (now in Cook) and that lying pr*ck Pyne in Sturt. There’s so little substance it’s laughable. Except, I’m laughing.
Well Chris B, yet you no doubt gave your second pref to Labor, how pointless>?
Is it true that Matt Price has passed away?
Sorry,has Jacky moved in with the loser Lindsay,would be interesting.
While we’re all bad-mouthing Costello, does anyone else remember when he and Abbott took Bob Ellis to court because he had defamed their wives in a book? “New Jerusalem” I think it was.
That was the first time I thought what a no-hoper he was.
Yes, Basil, unfortunately.
Hmmm. If climate change does come in over the top of all other issues, which, on the balance of probabilities it will, then the Greens will be vindicated as the only sane ones in town. The rest of us will be regarded retrospectively as a bunch of lunatics playing with matches and cans of petrol in a house of straw. Of course, if climate change does come in like that, there will not be a whole of pleasure for the Greens in the old “I told you so.” Sort of no-win for them, really.
Or, sadly, I should say.
Brenton – what nonsense. You’re a political junkie, and hate the Liberals from the start for their conservatism, but the ordinary Australians who swung their votes do not. They were tired, wanted change, and Rudd looked nice.
“396
Dyno Says:
November 25th, 2007 at 10:06 pm
VBOW @ 373,
Costello didn’t get the job of “being an experienced person at the helm” anyway – his side lost the election. So what’s the logic of your argument? Are you saying he should try to be Treasurer/PM from the Opposition benches?
He’s had enough and he’s quit. Just like hundreds of politicians before him who’ve lost. I can’t actually see anything wrong with that.”
Hmmm.. I can see that you, like millions of other Australians, paid no attention whatsoever to the Liberal Party’s campaign themes this election.
Let me remind you. To run the country you need experience. Only experience will get you through the hard times. These guys in opposition have no experience. Therefore you’d be mad to vote them in.
Now, let’s take this forward three years. If you’re in opposition, and you’ve run that line in the previous election – and we now know only too well how lines from previous elections can come back and bite you in the bum – what is a better selling point: having a Leader of the Opposition who has had 11 years in the second most senior job in the country, or a leader who has had just a few years in parliament? Who will be better to harass the government in the intervening years – someone who knows where all the bodies are buried, or a tyro?
Still, it’s not my concern…
BoerWar FYI
Climate of Kamchatka
The absolute temperature maximum on Kamchatka is +34`C, the absolute minimum is -24:26`C on the islands and -49:60`C in central and northern parts of the peninsula.
The number of days with temperature over +20`C in summer: in coast area 1-6, in the valley of Kamchatka river 35-55.
Maximum amount of precipitation up to 2600 mm a year (south-east seaside).
Maximum wind speed in winter up to 40 m/c (at the seaside).
Volcanoes, glaciers, sea around take part in forming of the Kamchatka’s climate.
430 Basil Fawlty Earlier on today.
Australia’s most senior Liberal in power right now is Campbell Newman. Brisbane Lord Mayor. Come March next year we’ll ‘knock him off’ too!!
No 424
I’d respect the Greens more if they evenly divided their preferences between the Liberals and the ALP.
LTEP @ 381
The Greens can move to the center for the same reason that Labor doesn’t worry about the Greens: there’s no major party further to the left. People want their votes to count, even if they think their party has gone a bit too far to the right. They’ll still be to the left of New Leadership Labor ™.
Matt will be sadly missed by many, certainly by me. A good and decent journo.
ESJ
You left out the earthquakes. And lots and lots of hydrocarbons.
A01,
I haven’t forgotten the possibility of 4-year terms, which, if they are fixed, I support, but they won’t happen until the ALP gets over 1975.
VBOW @ 437,
It is possible that Costello’s presence at the next election could have helped the Libs (which is a different argument to the one you were running previously, btw).
Possible, just not very likely.
Voters decide preferences, not parties.
434 Boerwar,
you are right about ClimateChange. We didn’t just and raise it as an issue to win votes – it was actually because we are hoping like hell we can do something as a nation to at least minimse the extent an impact of it’s effects.
It’s a whole novel idea about politics being about issues,rather than party power.
I’m hoping it catches on.
441 Generic Person. I think they’ll take that into account next election.
DOGS – What a delicious twist come post election!
The blame game is alive and well:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/25/2100632.htm
441 [I’d respect the Greens more if they evenly divided their preferences between the Liberals and the ALP.]
Um,GP haven’t we just seen the Democrats disintegrate by using this disastrous policy? Any party that has anything to do with the Liberals is asking for extinction.
Rudd should just legislate for fixed 3 year terms. Then at the 2010 election we should have a referendum on going from 3 to 4 year terms.
He wouldn’t even need to campaign, he could just say “it is your choice”, thus he won’t appear as a loser if the proposition fails.
No 447
Did you miss all the pre-election preference deals?
GP -
sorry to break it to you, but I’m not sure that gaining your respect is a high priority for us.
It would seem that any chance of Pyne being elected deputy leader of the Liberal Party has gone now that Costello won’t be leader?
Would also think it would be pretty risky now he has a very small margin in Sturt.
CC. 1975…meaning?
No 452
The democrats disintegrated because they were really the Greens by another name. Lyn Allison was barely distinguishable from Bob Brown.
Did you miss the fact that when you vote YOU are the one that controls the pencil and YOU determined the order you put the numbers in the boxes?
Is being brain dead a pre-requisite for joining the Young Liberals these days?
No 455
Ditto for you jen. Remember, you’re the one that started the talk about respect.
It seems your sphere of lunacy is alive and well.
jen @ 415 –
As a Greenish person myself, I was delighted to see that my local HoR candidate for Sydney had a YouTube video up. That is, until I watched it. Almost embarrassingly, shockingly bad. I watched it and got quite angry. “What a missed opportunity to talk to their base in their native medium,” I thought.
So yeah, they made a video, but they made a complete botch of it. That’s just bad planning.
You don’t need money; you do need volunteers, and yes, you do need talent. If the Greens aren’t building up those networks, this needs to be a top priority.
(And yes, I plan on volunteering my services for just this task. I would have swung in to volunteer something, but it was about 72 hours before the poll and there was just no way to get something turned around that quickly.)
Oh dear… I thought all this nonsense would be over after the election.
Well I never voted Democrat in my life because they were formed by Chip who was a Liberal Minister and I could not stomach a party who gave preferences to Liberals.
Although Lyn is female and Bob is not. Might have slipped past you though.
It is obvious the Democrats are dead. But surely they would have some party organisation / infrastructure that the greens would like.
Bob Brown should propose to merge the parties just so he can get access to that.
GP@458, the Death of the Democrats can be traced directly to their support for a GST.
Lesson for history is, side with the libs and suffer.
The Liberals in NSW have to set about making themselves electable. Barry O’Farrell hasn’t layed a glove on Iemma yet.
It is time the ABC was made independent of government, we need an arm of the media which can act without fear or favour. Some formula for funding must be found which removes the possibility of any government, Labor or Liberal, strangling it to force promotion of their agenda. With some exceptions (George M etc) the MSM have generally been so biased they have lost all credibility.
Labor still ahead in Swan by 39 votes at 9:29 tonight. One booth left to count. Stirling seems lost (Labor behind by 2000), Cowan to Liberal 51.35 or almost 2000 votes.
if Brendon Nelson becomes leader of the libs, then the Libs will be led by an ex labor union boss
bahahahahahaha
i think i read somewhere that Tip needs to hang around til March 08 to qualify for the top bracket super plan, or something like that.
any news on that?
by election for Higgins before July i think. Gives him 6 months to line up his preferred money making appointments after his public announcement today that he is available.
452 steve Spot on, I never have voted for them since the GST was passed. And I’m still angry.
Costello has a history of wimping out when the going is tough. I know this has been posted before, but in case anyone hasn’t seen it, over a decade ago PK described Tip as a ‘low-altitude flyer’ for his failure to challenge Howard. His behaviour today is entirely consistent.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=Rnwn4q_ZE9c&feature=related
Marko -
good one. We definitely need this kind of support.
The fact that Howard did not know last night that Costello was quitting demonstrates to all how little regard Costello had for each other, and why their TT interview was such a joke.
Beazley is admired by all in the ALP. Everyone in the party knows he did the toughest job, and got no reward. (He will now though!)
No 466
Sorry imacca, but the party infighting over more than five years, a series of leaders and a convoluted message that ended up as a carbon copy of the Greens’, was the cause of death for the Democrats.
Have been away from my post for 48 hours or so on the ground fighting the election – as they say – we won our booth for ALP btw with a 14% swing.
Has anyone else logged into Centrebet and noticed they are still giving odds for who will win the election?
$1.16 ALP $4+ for “any other party”. They have paid out on some of my bets already so I just rolled it into the ALP to win.
Get on it whilst you can.
BTW does anyone knw where you can get a streaming version of the count as it unfolded? They stuck me at a booth at the far flung end of Dobell and the Deputy RO was so keen to have scrutineers around to ensure a free and fair election – hi Racheal at Wyoming Public (I meant what I said you run a great booth) – that I didn’t get away till about 9pm at which point it was really all over red rover and I missed out on all the Antony Green insights.
If Antony is reading this blog still I’d value his insight as to whether he still feels that scrutineers are relevant anymore in getting the results through on the night. What does he estimate is the delay between say the parties being able to call an Electorate and him being able to do so now?
Swing Lowe, nice one. For the next little while the telephone box will feel crowded to the small mob of remainders inside, slugging away, swinging dead cats and sloshing pails of bile over each other. Tanner was right.
Well, bloggers, off for a bit of shut-eye. Apart from Matt Price, it has been a very good weekend, especially for my wet tendency.
Did you hear Beazley on SkyNews say he wished he could’ve given Rudd’s victory speech, but doubted that he could’ve done it so well? He also said it will go down as one of the great political speeches in Australian history, which was a bit hyperbolic, but you can’t really blame him after what he went through.
Anyway, Bomber will be on the plane to Washington by January.
Rudd pays tribute to Matt Price…
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22818842-662,00.html
No 468
The ABC should be privatised. That’s the only way to make it truly independent of government.
Here’s an excellent bit of US reviewing of the Howard years, and his demise:
http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/?last_story=/opinion/greenwald/2007/11/24/howard/
Greenwald makes up for all that maudlin pap about the ‘man of steel’, and puts the little rodent’s actions in the right light.
You don’t seem to understand what the “C” stands for in A.B.C.
Goodnight all, from what has been an absolutely magnificent day. What was it? 24 seats minimum?
Commune?
Commissariat?
Conclave?
Co-operative?
No 483
You like playing dumb do you.
The ABC is fully funded by the Government and the Government also chooses its board members.
23 minimum 29 maximum