Four observations that grabbed me from Insiders this morning. One from Barrie Cassidy:
• “Paul Keating described his win in 1993 as one for the true believers. Last night’s was not. Kevin Rudd promised to govern for all Australians. His appeal within the Labor Party itself is tempered because of his conservative cautious stance on so many issues. He will be seen as the leader the party had to have to beat John Howard. Julia Gillard will be the light on the hill.”
Three from George Megalogenis:
• “I suspect Jackie Kelly tipped (Bennelong) over the line for Maxine McKew. Her performance that Thursday morning on AM radio – my understanding of the tracking polls, a few of them went mad on Thursday night. There was actually swings back to Labor in marginals where there were previously narrowings through the week.”
• “Going into this election, 12 out of the top 30 seats for single mothers were held by the Coalition. They’ve lost eight straight off the bat, another three are doubtful, they’ll be left with one out of 30. (Cassidy: Why?) Welfare to work. Mal Brough. May have been popular in the intervention into Aboriginal affairs, but you know, he wanted single mums to go to work. And if they didn’t go to work they were going to lose their benefits. If you think that this didn’t shift votes where the government didn’t expect them … I think it did.”
• “The Liberal Party needs to have a good hard look at its membership base. This wasn’t just Lindsay, we saw a breakout at the Press Club on Thursday where Liberal Party members were heckling female journalists including Michelle Grattan, I think there was a meanness of spirit in the Liberal Party this year that came from its grass roots. I don’t know what it’s about, but Peter Costello (sic) needs to have a good look at it.”
To elaborate on the second point. I don’t have figures on single mothers specifically, but Megalogenis’s demographic tables include data for single parents which shows 11 previously Coalition-held seats in the top 30: Wakefield, Cowper, Lindsay, Leichhardt, Dunkley, Dobell, Solomon, Page, Robertson, Kingston, Bass, with Macarthur, Hasluck, Blair, Herbert and Longman not far out. The only definite survivor out of these is Dunkley, with Labor narrowly ahead in Solomon, Robertson and Herbert, just trailing in Cowper and Macarthur, and victorious in the other nine.
862 Comments
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Oh geez we’re still on the hot button issue of the ABC.
Ciao all.
Maybe Costello could have a morning show on ABC radio so we can bag him one on one.
Surely Maxine should claim victory in Bennelong on 51.7% of the vote. If the Liberal candidate was anyone else but Howard, Labor wouldn’t be so damn cautious.
Dont be naive ShowsON,
You can’t handle the new government having higher standards than the old government.
Abbott will be the new Albanese style headkicker, but who on the ALP’s side will do the dorothy dixers?? Maybe Garrett cos he’ll be a backbencher after this.
Seriously with this inexperienced lot coming into Government we all should watch Yes Minister and Yes Prime Minister because that’s exactly what’s going to happen in the first few years of Rudd lol. Fun times ahead.
Maybe Paul J Keating has a copy of ACME Fight Back, Malcolm can put some money into Keating’s pigery for a peak lol!
Edward StJohn, I’m pessimistic about the American dollar but extremely optimistic about gold!
Anyway, I’m off to bed now.
Goodnight all
Could someone please sack Barry Cassidy? The man is a hack!
It is funny to see that old habits die hard. I know it has only been one day since you lost power but here is some advice for the Liberal trolls on here who think that their side can still control the narrative of the public debate. Those days are well and truly gone my friends.
It is the new Govt which will rewrite the narrative of the Howard/Costello era not the Liberals. The same was true for the Howard Govt which had successfully rewritten the Hawke/Keating era to its own advantage until it was finally challenged and the record was corrected. Beazley, Crean and Latham were unable to correct the narrative and it took Rudd to set the agenda and challenge the Govt on its lies re strikes, unemployment, interest rates, inflation, economic reform etc etc.
Keating correctly argued that until Labor was prepared to take on Howard’s lies and distortions regarding Labor’s record on economic management and reform head on, they would always be on the back foot and lose the argument.
Beazley and Latham were scared of the Hawke/Keating legacy and ran away from its proud record. The tables only turned when economists started to dispute the Howard/Costello spin. And Rudd in a masterstroke successfully outsmarted Howard on economic management during the campaign but also ensured Labor’s achievements were recognised as well as Howard’s disastrous record as treasurer.
So in summary, the Libs have lost power and with it the control of the narrative.Your record will be taken apart and the myth called “best treasurer” and ‘best pm” etc won’t last 3 months.
Welcome back to earth Liberals. Ain’t it pretty? You will learn to live with reality. There is no stronger medicine.
Apologies if it’s already been posted, but I reckon the following is one of the funniest things of the whole election; in fact, probably for several elections. The following 4 paragraphs were written by Peter Costello’s chief hagiographer and press-sec-in-waiting Glenn Milne, and went online at 7:41am today.
“Despite Labor’s depiction of Mr Costello as a “living smirk”, he’s a gregarious, funny and self-deprecating person. This side will be on show as opposition leader.
And, despite speculation he might not want the job after almost 12 years as treasurer, Mr Costello has already taken the decision to accept the challenge of the opposition leadership.
In this respect, he learned a lesson from former Labor leader Mark Latham’s early departure from politics.
Mr Costello considers politics to be his vocation and does not want to repeat Mr Latham’s mistake – abandoning his career too early and living the rest of his life wondering “what if”.”
Gee, that guy’s finger is right on the pulse of decisions in the corridors of power. Can’t stop the hubris, sorry. Surely the guy can be retrained for a career that he’s good at?
I’m not aware of any requirement for the Senate to approve an ABC board appointment.
525
lets not forget the IPA harping on about how howards reforms didn’t go far enough. Talk about legitimising howard as a “moderate”, whilst simultaneously pushing a radical agenda and moving the debate to the far right. Pity IPA have pulled their journal offline since Roskam took over. It was always fun to see where Andrew Bolt was cutting and pasting his “ideas” from.
Not really, patronage to boards etc is a legitimate gift of government, harmless positions like the ABC board are ideal for party hacks – salary, trips and no chance to cause any real damage to the community or economy.
Don’t worry ESJ. I think parliamentary entitlements have been rising like the tide since Howard’s Latham me tooism of 2004. Even if Belinda can’t get the old scheme, in full season, there will be adequate and just compensation for our tireless representatives on both sides of the house.
Edward, I think your line in superior North Shore smartypants sarcasm has rather lost its edge now that YOU HAVE LOST THE ELECTION – or haven’t you been paying attention? Belinda Neale may not be a genius but she had quite enough talent to kick one of your oh-so-brilliant Howard ministers out of a seat he had held for eleven years and in which the demographics were working in his favour. The good people of Robertson obviously don’t share your supercilious attitude, so why go on fighting a war you have already lost? Get over it, and get over yourself while you’re at it.
imacca @ 533,
You’d be more right were it not for the fact that Rudd copied most Liberal policies.
Good luck with the history re-write on that one!
Glen, you’re just jealous that there are more people on our side to ask Dorothy Dixers. That job will probably fall to the new MPs for Dawson, Forde, Deakin etc.
As an antidote to all that has happened yesterday and today in Federal politics, myself and him indoors watched “John Lennon vs. the U.S.”. Made me weep. I recommend it to all those who value intellectual freedom.
Dyno,Rudd is not a proven liar.
544: I assume that now they will dump it all onto Downer, Abbott, Bishop and Vaile. My impression is that Nelson and Turnbull have maintained far more civility, but I’m open to be disabused of the quaint notion.
Hemingway, I was impressed by Nelson during the retirement speech by Bomber a few weeks ago. He was the only Lib in the house at such a momentous event, went up a lot of notches for me then. The rest of that sad shower were conspicuous by their absence.
Speculation tonight on ABC News that Mark Dreyfuss will go straight into cabinet. This bloke is a barrister, so AG?
Thank you for reminding me that we never have to hear De-Anne Kelly speak ever again.
Glen @ 498
The Greens at my booth ran about 85% to ALP. They were still inconsequential in the result but I am guessing that the overall preference flow between ALP and Greens will be at a record high this election.
I would like to know if there is any difference between Green pref flows in Tas to ALP versus rest of the nation as they were deliberately not preferencing ALP there. This might (hopefully) put to bed once and for all the ridiculous notion that Green preferences are so important that ALP needs to sacrifice Senate preferences and important policy positions etc…
Once again we have had a hyperbolic performance by the Greens which ended in a performance well below their predictions. We should acknowledge that this was very much a polarizing election for the major parties but even so their relevance as a major party outside of Tasmania must once be brought into question.
Bob Brown would appear to me to have only one more election left in him tops. He was all of a sudden looking pretty tired this time round. The Greens have not been able to demonstrate an ability to succession plan so there must be a reasonable risk that they will decline or even implode when he leaves the scene. Milne (I think she is the next senior Green now) was an ineffectual leader of the Tasmanian Greens and therefore not a natural successor.
I’m going to throw a speculator out right now and suggest that the Greens will have real trouble with succession and may well become “the party that ate itself”. Reasons:
1. Tasmanian Greens see themselves as the true heart of the Green movement in Australia and therefore there might be a belief that they should keep the leadership crown.
2. In counter to this the WA Greens arose separately to the Tas Greens and may feel that they are the “true heart”.
3. The Greens nationally lack a Federal structure to bind themselves. They very much rely on grass roots up.
3. There is a “cult of personality” around Bob Brown which may very well disintegrate with his departure from the leadership role, similar to Tito and Yugoslavia
From this I suggest that the Greens may be at risk of “balkanising”. Even in certain States they have weird sbstructures e.g. in NSW there are various Green groups – Newcastle Greens, NSW Greens. They lack the true discipline to go forward as a major party.
Oh Adam I am just going to put you on ignore, you’ve been very nasty ever since I refused to post on your blog – it was just too worthy and dull.
HH @ 553,
I reckon you’re right about the Labor caution in Bennelong.
At one stage last night Channel 9 were refusing to call Bennelong even thought Blind Freddie could see Howard was gone. Again, because it would be so noticeable if you made that call too early and it ended up being wrong.
Howard Hater – AG will certainly go to either Dreyfus or Debus.
No 570
Nelson’s only chance is treasury. There’s no way he’d put a finger on Rudd as leader.
Edward if you had posted on my blog I would have deleted it on sight. I’ve been very nasty since about 1975.
That’s not surprising, I can’t imagine many Green voters support nuclear power.
Edward… how’s your blog at the Australian going by the way… is it true they pay by the hit?
Adam @ 565
I was at a joint booth on Saturday for Dobell and Robertson and the Liberal booth captain was waging a war on voters – a sure sign of defeat in my experience.
Apart from expressing certain homophobic and xenophobic sentiments he was handing out the Liberal how to vote cards with a line as follows in counter to YR@W:
“Vote for Work Choices. Your choice. Have a job or go on the dole.”
With Lib talent like this – who needs ALP booth workers?
563 [Not really, patronage to boards etc is a legitimate gift of government, harmless positions like the ABC board are ideal for party hacks - salary, trips and no chance to cause any real damage to the community or economy.]
ABC radio in Brisbane has degenerated in line with the whole dumbing down of Australia during the Howard years. It is just not true that this has not caused real damage to the community.
Oh someone wants to privatise the ABC.
Yeah, good luck with that.
Open warfare …calm down Adam & ESJ. Adam I missed your blogs on the last week..glad your back!
SimonH, that’s seriously funny. Bugger, I’m going to have to stop visiting so often and do some serious work.
And seriously, anyone with some ideas about health, anything from primary care to tertiary, and research, please email me at 47wankel@optusnet.com. Please note obscure Monty Python reference in both moniker and email address. Sniggle!
No 582
Howard has not been responsible for the dumbing down of Australia. It has been the state education boards that have presided over that policy disaster.
Read Kevin Donnely’s “Dumbing Down” for a more detailed picture.
DOGS @ 569,
Rudd’s record for honesty will speak for itself once he’s been in power for a while.
I honestly don’t know that much about the guy’s integrity, very willing to give him the benefit of the doubt unless/till he proves otherwise.
Which shadow ministers will Rudd drop? That’ll be the media narrative for the next few days.
John Who?
I must confess, for all the excitement, and how happy I am today – I rather wished Beazer was giving the victory speech last night. His concession speech in 01 was twice the calibre.
Id prefer Rudd in government to Beazer, and on soundbites – but let Beazer give the big speeches.
Part of the tragedy of the last 9 months is that it was a Presidential style battle between two of the least inspiring orators in Australian political history.
Somebody hire a decent speechwriter – please!
No 583
Exactly. Privatising the ABC is politically impossible.
But my response was related to Basil who mused that the ABC should be independent of the government.
There’s no other legitimate way of doing this other than privatising it.
All is well LTEP, and you?
I have however made irreversible promises that Radio Berlin (ie posting on Pollbludger) will cease broadcasting on Saturday for the forseeable future.
Apologies if I’ve missed someone making a similar comment before now, but one of the last journos who deserves being taken seriously is jilted lover Cassidy.
Cassidy did the election analyis on last Friday’s Noon ABC News Bulletin in place of the usual Middleton and took the opportunity to tell the newsreader that Rudd “fell short” of showing the voters that he is a credible alternative PM. It was petty adolescent revenge, and of course, he didn’t have the guts to go within cooee of repeating it this morning. It would have been a treat to watch Penny Wong step on him like a bug if he said that to her.
My experience over many decades in the Labor Party is that they forget nothing and forgive even less.
However, George Mega is always worth quoting.
586 [Howard has not been responsible for the dumbing down of Australia. It has been the state education boards that have presided over that policy disaster.]
GP that is the one single, greatest achievement of the Howard era. How dare you deny the ‘dumbing down of Australia’ as Howard’s legacy? Surely you are not going to try and convince us that Howard actually achieved nothing while in office?
The dumbing down effect is due to our commercial (ie privately owned) television networks and their mindless pursuit of everything that is crap from the Evil Empire run by the Village Idiot. Thank god we only have another 12 months of that bast*rd to run, unless they impeach him first and lock him in Gitmo.
HowardHater,
The game of the next 72 hours.
GP 586
If anybody is going to be now trading at discount, it’ll be Kevin Donnelly.
I’m glad everyone else was as unmoved as me by KR’s victory speech last night. His verbal tic (’our great nation Australia’, repeated every second sentence) pissed me off after the second time – like we were unsure what our nation was called…
The only slightly uplifting stuff was the ‘third way’ stuff, which may or may not mean anything in the long run.
I’m pleased to see the back of Howard, but having been burnt with one Blair already, I’m nervous about another one…
Generic Peabrain @ 505
You make them a statutory body with heads appointed by parliament for fixed terms longer than a parliamentary cycle. A similar thing works for the bureau of statistics and the ANAO. You guys don’t like the ANAO do you? A bit too independent for Mark Vailes liking I guess…
steve @ 593,
Pretty much every Western country has dumbed down during the period of Howard’s PMship. Not sure that you can blame him all that much. It’s mainly driven by changes in culture and technology.
Noone’s being dumbed down. It’s a myth that’s cooked up once every generation to make them feel as if they were smarter back in the day.
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