Four observations that grabbed me from Insiders this morning. One from Barrie Cassidy:
• “Paul Keating described his win in 1993 as one for the true believers. Last night’s was not. Kevin Rudd promised to govern for all Australians. His appeal within the Labor Party itself is tempered because of his conservative cautious stance on so many issues. He will be seen as the leader the party had to have to beat John Howard. Julia Gillard will be the light on the hill.”
Three from George Megalogenis:
• “I suspect Jackie Kelly tipped (Bennelong) over the line for Maxine McKew. Her performance that Thursday morning on AM radio – my understanding of the tracking polls, a few of them went mad on Thursday night. There was actually swings back to Labor in marginals where there were previously narrowings through the week.”
• “Going into this election, 12 out of the top 30 seats for single mothers were held by the Coalition. They’ve lost eight straight off the bat, another three are doubtful, they’ll be left with one out of 30. (Cassidy: Why?) Welfare to work. Mal Brough. May have been popular in the intervention into Aboriginal affairs, but you know, he wanted single mums to go to work. And if they didn’t go to work they were going to lose their benefits. If you think that this didn’t shift votes where the government didn’t expect them … I think it did.”
• “The Liberal Party needs to have a good hard look at its membership base. This wasn’t just Lindsay, we saw a breakout at the Press Club on Thursday where Liberal Party members were heckling female journalists including Michelle Grattan, I think there was a meanness of spirit in the Liberal Party this year that came from its grass roots. I don’t know what it’s about, but Peter Costello (sic) needs to have a good look at it.”
To elaborate on the second point. I don’t have figures on single mothers specifically, but Megalogenis’s demographic tables include data for single parents which shows 11 previously Coalition-held seats in the top 30: Wakefield, Cowper, Lindsay, Leichhardt, Dunkley, Dobell, Solomon, Page, Robertson, Kingston, Bass, with Macarthur, Hasluck, Blair, Herbert and Longman not far out. The only definite survivor out of these is Dunkley, with Labor narrowly ahead in Solomon, Robertson and Herbert, just trailing in Cowper and Macarthur, and victorious in the other nine.
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An even better way to ensure independence of the ABC would be to remove its funding from the annual budget. I don’t know whether the license fee route would be politically feasible, but the current mechanism means that it needs to be ‘in’ with the current government every year.
The other interesting thing is that the Government and Opposition will be led by 2 men who have or have access to 9 figure personal wealth. All very American as where the 2 speeches last night “this great nation” “our best days are ahead of us” etc etc
I thought KR’s victory speech was awful. Someone must – must – MUST train him out using that rhetorical device “you know what?” or “guess what?” every second sentence.
GP@590, not necessarily. They could introduce something like the UKs TV license fee, which gives the BBC a source of funding not directly controllable by the government. I don’t envisage anyone ever bringing something like this back, but it would be another pathway to greater financial independence without commercialisation or privatisation.
You got to hand it to Malcolm Mackerras, he predicted a Labor Landslide with Howard losing Bennelong on October 15:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22586061-5014047,00.html
He got Wentworth wrong though. But he got Lindsay and Paramatta right.
599 You must admit though that the Board of the ABC has been a particularly deliberate and effective dumbing down directly attributable to the Liberal Government as a matter of policy.
597,
Rudd’s speech was “Captain Bland” I thought. Ok, but nothing more. The stuff about a “cup of tea and an Iced Vo Vo” showed what a nerd he truly is. (Dame Edna’s going to have fun with that line). But nerds might make good PMs, we’ll find out soon enough.
Howard did ok with his, under the circumstances. His only real requirement was not to cry, and to remember to congratulate Rudd (which he actually did pretty well I thought). His was a pass.
Big deal.
Of course Australia’s best years are ahead of it – John Howard is no longer prime minister.
GP,
I have read Kevin Donnelly’s “Dumbing Down”, and it did not convince me. It’s a little late in the evening for me to present a detailed arguent here, but in Victoria the Liberals were the ones who caused immense damage to the education system, damage which the ALP has started to repair, though not fast enough for some (including me). International tests show Australia performs very well compared with other OECD nations in literacy and numeracy, though that is not the whole story, of course.
Generic Person, You’ve called me away one last time in relation to privatisation of the ABC. You’re thinking is just what has got you and your political party just where it is now. Nowhere. Zip. Nada. Nothing. Just try and understand, privatising does not mean anything beneficial in any domain necessarily. Look at what’s happened to for example Victoria’s public transport system since it’s been privatised. It’s complex, I know, but unless you even try to understand, you’re f****d. as a political force
“argument”
Well, folks, the highlight of the polling day for me in Curtin took place at the Cottesloe Civic Centre. A group of four likely lads turned up to vote at the same time as a visit from the putative Lib deputy leader. One of said lads was dressed, if that is the word, in a Kev07 shirt and a bright pink jock strap. He was as a camp as the proverbial row of tents and proceeded to prance around in front of Ms Bishop and the queuing punters, purporting to be about to vote for Kev. Ms Bishop was looking aghast throughout and made a hurried departure. One of the aforementioned punters left the queue and came over to one of the ALP volunteers, tore up her HTV card sayng. “I was going to vote for the ALP but after that I’m not”. The quick-witted volunteer replied that “They are all young Liberals!” At which she took another Labor HTV saying. – “Well, that’s ok then!” We didn’t get a pic but of all people, the Family First volunteer did! Such debauchery! The final act was that the man in pink bent over at one stage causing an elderly lady in a car to almost collapse laughing.
The Howard Government is gone and the Liberal party shield John Howard is gone. There is no longer such thing as voter support for a Howard Government or even a Howard liberal party, with a Costello on the backbench.
The Liberal party now lacks credibility as an alternative government and you would think that in a very short term their Poll support will plummet.
They will not want a DD any time before they can rebuild themselves and present themselves as a credible alternative which, may take some time. In the meantime Rudd Labor has the strong hand and will be able to be aggressive with policies if they like and, may even use as a tactic.
The LNP will not allow the conditions for a DD to appear if they are in fledgling state and especially if Rudd builds his stature in this time.
They would risk a total route and loss in the Senate and, if the LNP do struggle to rebuild themselves, you may see Labor seek out DD conditions to strike and weaken them further if it becomes a real possibility.
LTEP @ 600,
Fair point.
When I say “dumbed down” I mean that people know less than they used to about the sort of stuff that was considered important when I was at school.
It’s at least debatable whether that is really dumbing down, or whether it’s just me getting old.
PJK, the pic is probably up on the FF porn site by now.
No 609
Not all of his arguments were convincing, I agree. But the argument that was quite telling and undeniable was the fact that a central tenet of the state education bureaucracies was that education was a vehicle for affecting social change rather than for learning. It’s all there in their respective mission statements etc.
Basil Fawlty,
Thanks for reminding me of Nelson’s respectful appearance for Beazley’s farewell speech. He was also reasonably civil on the Skynews panel last night as opposed to some of the Lib panel members on other channels. He and Hawkie seemed to be kindred spirits at times. Robb is just appalling and Hockey nearly as bad.
The Coalition would be wise to support Labor’s changes to industrial relations.
They need to admit that WorkChoices played a part in their defeat.
I thought Rudd’s speech was just right. Sincere, direct, simple, good humoured, forceful, passionate without being a rant. I agree he has some annoying quirks of phrasing, but they have become his trademark and he enjoys using them. I thought Howard’s speech was very good too, by the way – generous and dignified.
Have the Liberal trolls on here noticed A SEISMIC SHIFT IN AUSTRALIAN POLITICAL LANDSCAPE? It happened yesterday. Most if not all of your arguments and predictions over the last few weeks and today have finally proven their worth – TOTALLY AND UTTERLY USELESS.
I actually didn’t mind Rudd’s speach. I thought it was quite endearing in some parts, particularly as he loosened up. Maybe I was just so happy about the result that I was deluded.
Of course education results in social change, it takes a population that is dumb, and makes it smarter.
Is the Young Liberal theme song “if I only had a brain” from The Wizard of Oz?
No-one has yet discovered WHERE IS TONY ABBOTT?
ShowsOn,
The Liberal Party Federal President today said they have to face up to the role Workchoice paid in losing their “battlers”, so your take is sound.
I liked Mrs Rudd!!!!! She looks like an older version of Miss Connie from Sneaky Sound System-very sweet!!!!!
kina, the Labor Party would not be so ruthless would they? ROTFL
I mean those factional disputes over the years have given Labor a tender merciful and empathic attitude to their opponents, and they would never stoop to kicking them when they are down, WOULD THEY
No 622
I will no longer dignify your ignorant utterances with a response, hereafter.
They should just let Labor pass whatever it wants to, get that out of the way, then debate some other things.
If the new leader of the opposition stands up in the House and shows a bit of humility, then I think that would go a long way to stamping new authority on the Liberals, and to show they will admit mistakes.
Adam,
Do you reckon Tony’s just taken the day off (possible I guess), or are you hypothesising something is afoot and he’s considering his leadership position?
I was more interested in his press conference today…the story hasn’t changed, he appears deadly serious about his policy platform.
I was just stating the f’ing obvious.
Sadly that seems to be the hardest thing to comprehend for your type.
I agree ShowsOn,
They should vote up Labor’s IR policy as long as it is consistent with Forward with Fairness.
Coast to Coast Labor Governments-it doesnt get much better than this.
Is the next Liberal PM in the Parliament? I hope its not Alex Hawke.
I think Abbott will run for deputy. His terrible campaign killed of any chance he had of being leader. He is on record as saying he is too conservative to be leader, which would just remind people of Howard.
625 – full votes for Therese Rein’s busted move on stage. My highlight of the night (only because unfortunately I didn’t get to hear Chris Pyne concede).
Perhaps Abbott will become the keeper of the flame?
Yep, it will be. There is absolutely nothing in it for the coalition blocking that mandated legislation.
Same deal with ratifying Kyoto. In fact, it would reveal the new opposition leader as treating climate change seriously, which would immediately differentiate him/her from Howard.
BENNELONG LATEST AS AT 4.30 PM TODAY
79.09% counted
Whilst Maxine leads by 2PP 3.32%
but only by 2439 in 2PP votes
Lets hope the postals are not a large number of the 20515 votes still to count
PS
1/ Informal 9protest vote) was 4.90 % !!!
2/ all ‘others’ preference liberal ,eg Fred Nile , Family first
So Greens 7 Democrats have preferenced Maxine 96.81% !!!
Had their preferences run 755 , Maxine’s 2PP would be 482 votes NOT 2439
Abbott got thrashed by Roxon every time they discussed anything, I don’t think he has got it as leader or deputy. Then again all the debates went Labor’s way.
630 Kina, Labor in government will implement everything that was promised in the election campaign. This has always been one of the major differences between the Liberal party which will promise anything and then do whatever it wants in government. Labor election policy can be read like a map for the next three year term.
By the time it is Alex Hawke for PM, I will be retired and I can leave the country. I suggest the site ‘International Living’ for anyone else who wants to prepare to leave as well!!!!! LOL.
I think Abott will either run for Leader or quit politics. Given his substantial share of responsibility for the Saturday Night Massacre, I would have thought the latter more likely. But it will depend on what Cardinal Pell advises I guess.
He is certainly the keeper of the Howard legacy. However I don’t think he would be good as deputy. He will be far more conservative than any leader, and thus you’d have tension from the get go.
The Liberals need a leader who is a Republican, and who believes in climate change and reconciliation.
If they don’t have that, then they will be painted as old fashioned like Howard.
steve @ 640,
Your faith is touching.
I must confess I still keep having flashbacks to Julie Bishop telling KR that he was a naughty boy and he should go to the naughty boys corner, I wonder was she ever in B+D, she did it so well.
Correction – hit 5 button instead of % button
had Green/Dem. preferences run 75% ,
Maxine’s lead would be 482 2PP not 2439
No 642
I don’t think Abbott was responsible for the Liberals’ defeat. If you’re all supposed to be psephology junkies, the polls had been consistent all year about an ensuing landslide.
Generic Person… I’m interested to know… did you ever believe the polls?
I look forward to the new Leader of the House passing bull$hit motions that stop the opposition from taking points of order whenever Rudd speaks.
That was the sort of arrogant crap that Abbott liked to deploy, so I can’t wait for the new government to throw it right back at the coalition (if it remains a coalition).
I don’t blame it on Abbott either, I think the entire government was equally inept.
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