Four observations that grabbed me from Insiders this morning. One from Barrie Cassidy:
• “Paul Keating described his win in 1993 as one for the true believers. Last night’s was not. Kevin Rudd promised to govern for all Australians. His appeal within the Labor Party itself is tempered because of his conservative cautious stance on so many issues. He will be seen as the leader the party had to have to beat John Howard. Julia Gillard will be the light on the hill.”
Three from George Megalogenis:
• “I suspect Jackie Kelly tipped (Bennelong) over the line for Maxine McKew. Her performance that Thursday morning on AM radio – my understanding of the tracking polls, a few of them went mad on Thursday night. There was actually swings back to Labor in marginals where there were previously narrowings through the week.”
• “Going into this election, 12 out of the top 30 seats for single mothers were held by the Coalition. They’ve lost eight straight off the bat, another three are doubtful, they’ll be left with one out of 30. (Cassidy: Why?) Welfare to work. Mal Brough. May have been popular in the intervention into Aboriginal affairs, but you know, he wanted single mums to go to work. And if they didn’t go to work they were going to lose their benefits. If you think that this didn’t shift votes where the government didn’t expect them … I think it did.”
• “The Liberal Party needs to have a good hard look at its membership base. This wasn’t just Lindsay, we saw a breakout at the Press Club on Thursday where Liberal Party members were heckling female journalists including Michelle Grattan, I think there was a meanness of spirit in the Liberal Party this year that came from its grass roots. I don’t know what it’s about, but Peter Costello (sic) needs to have a good look at it.”
To elaborate on the second point. I don’t have figures on single mothers specifically, but Megalogenis’s demographic tables include data for single parents which shows 11 previously Coalition-held seats in the top 30: Wakefield, Cowper, Lindsay, Leichhardt, Dunkley, Dobell, Solomon, Page, Robertson, Kingston, Bass, with Macarthur, Hasluck, Blair, Herbert and Longman not far out. The only definite survivor out of these is Dunkley, with Labor narrowly ahead in Solomon, Robertson and Herbert, just trailing in Cowper and Macarthur, and victorious in the other nine.
862 Comments
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Paul Keating summed up Peter Costello back in 1995.
THIS VIDEO IS A CLASSIC!
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=aaLLP4sc_6Q
THE ABC BOARD IS FULL OF HOWARD APPOINTEES
One of Howard’s best mates Donald is chairman , Krogh , Janet from the ‘oz’
NOW you Liberals want to change who appoints directors after you have lost !!
The ABC is disliked by Liberals BECAUSE it is balanced
The ‘Age’ is disliked by Liberals BECAUSE it is balanced
The ‘SMH’ is disliked by Liberals BECAUSE it is balanced
Lets look at the pro Liberal News
Channel 9 (but NOT when the Packers owned it)
Channel 7
Daily Telegraph
HeraldSun
Courier Mail (only Q’ld paper)
Advertiser (only SA paper)
WA News (only WA paper)
What Rudd should do is progressively get rid of the ABC board Liberal hacks
and appoint ‘even handed’ Directors like a Michelle Grattan
Then pass a Law that any NEW appointees need a Senate majority
meaning the Liberals NEVER will be able to stack the ABC again
Kennett has got stuck into Smirk big time in todays Age
ShowsOn,
There were separate Senate elections in 1964, 1967 and 1970. The major parties did not like it becasue the government was not at stake so minor parties got record Senate votes (e.g., Frank McManus’s 19.1 per cent in 1970).
Nice…!!
http://www.roadtosurfdom.com/2007/11/25/dream-teams-for-the-libs/
I particularly like the Kevin Andrews / Philip Ruddock combination “..suck the light out of any room they entered.” LOL
700 [You can have a separate Senate election, but the term remains three years.]
Are you sure?
Yep, its wall to wall. (and why didnt the Tories make more of that?)
We’re ‘coming’ back??? The ALP is the only show in town.
In fact, I dare say the Greens run more local councils than the Libs. Since I can think of at least one thats Green majority. Thats one more than I can for the Libs.
Of course, it can all be sheeted back to Howard’s ubercentralist federalism (aka “Canberron the destroyer, runs amok”).
Thus, were all these defences carefully erected by the people at State and Local level over 10 years.
Now look at what you got, Libs: a big fat nuthin.
Zip.
Thanks JHo!
Yes. It occurs because an early election is called for the House, which puts the Senate out of synch. You cannot dissolve the Senate.
We probably need Antony Green.
Bet he’s asleep. Slacker. No AWA.
He’s probably still celebrating with Kevin Rudd and Maxine McKew about now CW.
Thanks, Chris Curtis.
Still strung out. Seeing fishy where no need, looks like.
Oh, Glen.
Oh Crikey Whitey lol.
Has anyone seen a full text transcript of Rudd’s victory speech?
Who cares about that slogan filled semanic traced script, Howard made his up on the go and it sounded better than KR’s speech.
His speech wont go down in History ShowsOn but wait awhile and someone will put the transcript up im sure.
BTW has Nostro popped up today?
Ms Crikey Whitey to you. Glen.
ShowsOn….You really want a transcript of Rudd’s speech?? Have you got insomnia or sumthin’?!
LV @ 701
God I miss Keating…
The Senate CAN NOT be dissolved without the Reps also being dissolved
IF this occurs the FULL Senate is up for re-election
(and of course the full House of Reps)
But there will be not a full dissolution unless Mr X and Family first think they can gain politically out of it…obviously they cann;t gain politically as they’re already elected !
715 [BTW has Nostro popped up today?]
He’s at Tony Abbott’s place.
CW, a thousand pardons.
Wouldn’t he still be in der bunker?
Let’s hope the Liberal party purges its reactionary majority, for the country can’t afford another Howard government
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/the-liberals-must-purge-the-reactionaries/2007/11/25/1195975866030.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
I must say I’ve waited over 11 years for a Labor victory….and Rudd’s speech was such an anticlimax. Like being excited about a xmas pressie and discovering it’s just socks. An inspiration he aint. Still, let’s give the guy a chance.
ShowsOn
Look at the BBC UK website. They have video of Rudd and Howard speeches.
Don’t know if in full. But surely our (maybe once more) ABC will have it, in due season.
722
ShowsOn – i know you don’t like the liberal party but our party is not controlled by the christian right i hate to break it to you, they are the minority in the party.
Dont worry Neilbris he’ll have at least 2 terms to bore us with answering his own questions zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.
Read the article Glen – Keating wasn’t referring the religious right. He was referring to politicians who want to divide us between unionists and non-unionists. Between Anglo-Celtics and non-Angleo Celtics. Between worker and boss, between citizen and refugee. His argument is that it is the job of the prime minister to bring everyone together, not to play up divisions.
Glenn Milne dumps on Howard (again):
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22819422-7583,00.html
Well Glen, we’ve been bored silly for 11 years by the former PM. I daresay the new incumbent will be just as gifted as his predecessor in the oratory dept. I guess we were hoping for some ‘light on the hill’ from KR. Faint hope.
I think he will get much better when he feels more confident in the job. It took Howard until 1998 until he was confident as P.M.
I think Rudd was feeling a mix of shock and relief, which is probably what I was feeling. I couldn’t believe it when Forde, Longman and Dawson fell, including swings of 20% to Labor in some booths!
On that note. Quotes.
By TIM JOHNSTON Published: November 25, 2007 New York Times Asia Pacific
Australian Premier, an Ally of Bush, Is Defeated
SYDNEY, Australia, Nov. 24 — Australia’s prime minister, John Howard, one of President Bush’s staunchest allies in Asia, suffered a comprehensive defeat at the hands of the electorate on Saturday..
..Mr. Howard’s defeat, after 11 years in power, follows that of José María Aznar of Spain, who also backed the US-led invasion of Iraq, and political setbacks for Tony Blair, who stepped down as Britain’s prime minister
..Mr. Howard may suffer the indignity of losing his own seat..to a former television anchor and rookie politician. He would be the first sitting prime minister to lose his seat since 1929.
..Mr. Rudd, 50, .. said his first acts as prime minister would include pushing for the ratification of the Kyoto agreement on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and negotiating the withdrawal of Australia’s 500 troops from Iraq…,Analysts said the leadership change was unlikely to bring a radically new foreign policy, although they expected a shift in emphasis in the relationship with the United States, Australia’s closest ally. ..
Mr. Howard has a strong personal relationship with Mr. Bush that is based on a similar socially conservative philosophy and a shared outlook on terrorism.
Australian opinion polls have shown that although Australians remain strong supporters of the so-called Anzus alliance .. they do not approve of Mr. Bush or the Iraq war..
..Mr. Rudd’s dry image was altered by the news that he had visited a strip club during a trip to New York in 2003.
He was a diplomat in Beijing and speaks Mandarin. He impressed many with a fluent address to President Hu Jintao of China when Mr. Hu visited Australia in September.
Australia’s PM-elect Rudd vows better global ties
By Rob Taylor Reuters Sat, November 24, 2007; 8:02 PM WASHINGTON POST
BRISBANE Incoming Labor Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, a Mandarin-speaking former diplomat, has pledged closer Australian ties with overseas allies and unity at home after ending 11 years of conservative rule under John Howard…
Rudd, 50, presented himself as a new-generation leader by promising to pull about 500 frontline Australian troops out of Iraq and sign the Kyoto Protocol on climate change, further isolating Washington on both issues. ..
As part of Rudd’s promised “fresh thinking,” he also teamed with a female deputy, former lawyer Julia Gillard, who will be Australia’s first woman deputy prime minister. ..
Neilbris… it’s hard to imagine Rudd can get much worse. We’ll see how he loosens up over the next year or two… but I certainly don’t see a personality of the calibre of Whitlam, Hawke or Keating from him. It’ll be hard to measure up to those Labor giants.
A Labor figure reiterates my point that Labor will do what it has promised in its election policy unlike the corrupted process we have come to expect over the past 12 years.
”What we will be doing is what we said we’ll do … reinstating CDEP and permits,” he said.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22818337-601,00.html
Glenn Milne’s article doesn’t make sense:
“And Howard played a role, as always. It was noted as Costello watched Howard’s concession speech from the Wentworth Hotel in Sydney that the Prime Minister specifically limited his responsibility for the awful defeat to the campaign itself. This was taken as a clear signal that as the inevitable internal bloodletting took its course Howard was going to make certain that Costello shared the odium of his politically fatal ideological obsession with Work Choices.”
Costello was making his speech when Howard was making his!?
Unless Costello stopped speaking and watched TV?
ShowsOn@517: That’s a bit rich coming from the side of politics which abolished the senate in Queensland and which produced the only PM whose lack of respect for the upper house caused him to get the sack.
?MALCOLM TURNBULL Making a pitch to break from the Howard era. Return party to Liberal orientation, rebuild next election, fix climate change. Ruffled feathers during the campaign.
?BRENDAN NELSON Had a difficult time as defence minister but has solid support on the backbench, where he has been assiduously courting numbers.
?TONY ABBOTT Had a shocking election campaign but is in politics for the long haul. Colleagues doubtful about his steadiness.
?ALEXANDER DOWNER Not particularly ambitious for the role, but could step up as a gesture to ensure the party survives the enormity of the defeat.
?JULIE BISHOP Woman, ambitious, would present an alternative to the NSW candidates, would recognise the Liberal’s continuing strength in Western Australia.
?JOE HOCKEY Moderate friendly face to re-position after the Howard years. Had a strong campaign.
?ANDREW ROBB Significant experience as a party tactician and strategist. Regarded as decent by colleagues.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/liberal-leadership-up-for-grabs/2007/11/25/1195975872410.html
MALCOLM TURNBULL Making a pitch to break from the Howard era. Return party to Liberal orientation, rebuild next election, fix climate change. Ruffled feathers during the campaign.
BRENDAN NELSON Had a difficult time as defence minister but has solid support on the backbench, where he has been assiduously courting numbers.
TONY ABBOTT Had a shocking election campaign but is in politics for the long haul. Colleagues doubtful about his steadiness.
ALEXANDER DOWNER Not particularly ambitious for the role, but could step up as a gesture to ensure the party survives the enormity of the defeat.
JULIE BISHOP Woman, ambitious, would present an alternative to the NSW candidates, would recognise the Liberal’s continuing strength in Western Australia.
JOE HOCKEY Moderate friendly face to re-position after the Howard years. Had a strong campaign.
ANDREW ROBB Significant experience as a party tactician and strategist. Regarded as decent by colleagues.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/liberal-leadership-up-for-grabs/2007/11/25/1195975872410.html
The Liberals do not have anybody who is capable of winning at the next election. None of the current bunch, including Turnbull have what is neccessary. Turnbull is not the political animal you need to be for success. And, he waffles far too much and sounds like he is talking down to you.
Surely with 50 members there must be one acceptable candidate as leader?
Many would say Rudd wasn’t either Kina until he got the job and he’s PM.
The fact is the tories are that far behind they’ll need big swings back to them in 2010 to regain ground ie 10+ seats leaving Rudd with a comfortable majority.
Turnbull could do this, Nelson well who knows and Bishop is an outsider too.
As I said, Kina. Glen.
Justin, the Borbidge Liberal Government in Queensland promised to reintroduce their Legislative Council… but then conveniently realised they didn’t want to when they won government.
Also, I’m not sure how you read 1975 to say it was the PM’s lack of respect for the upper house that got him the sack… if you can explain it to me I’ll agree with you.
LOL! Why didn’t the Tory’s respect Westminster convention, and not block supply?
Oh, I remember, because they are hypocrites, only interested in conventions and traditions that suit them.
Turnbull may make an acceptable interim to bring them some cohesion while they look for a real leader.
You have to salute Glenn Milne and Peter Costello.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22819422-7583,00.html
Only Glenn Milne could hail Costello for crafting an economic policy that he hoped would – if adopted by a Labor government – limit its options in best managing the economy, therefore maximising his chances of being returned to office in three years time.
Only Peter Costello could think of such a selfish act of bastardry.
And people call Howard selfish…
Permits back? Means I get another staff member back..lol
For the record there are Northern Territory remote figures here.
Mr Snowdon said Mr Howard’s pledge for a referendum on a pre-amble to the Constitution recognising indigenous people was not a “relevant issue” in his electorate.
He said he got an unprecedented vote in remote communities with their Maningrida booth in the Top End getting a 94per cent vote for Labor. He said four other mobile remote area voting booths received between an 84 and 95 per cent vote for Labor.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22818337-601,00.html
Glen,
What do you see in Bishop that makes you think she is some sort of untapped prospect? What has she actually achieved which makes you think this? (Aesthetic arguments shall be ignored.)
ShowsOn & LTEP: Flowing rhetoric and powerful oratory is never going to be one of KR’s strengths. He’s a technocrat and is more interested in efficiencies and outcomes than with inspiring the true believers with his speeches. So yes, LTEP, he will never be a Whitlam, Hawke or Keating. But let’s hope his leadership and his actions are made of the things that inspire a nation. The way he speaks about them will matter less then. Besides, I imagine after 6 weeks of going 7 days a week, criss-crossing the country and being under intense scrutiny he was just plain buggered!
739 Also just for the record Borbidge was a National Party Premier.
Glenn Milne | November 26, 2007
“YOU have to hand it to John Howard. The man who immortalised himself as “Lazarus with a triple bypass” has reached from just beyond the point of political extinction to achieve his ultimate personal aim; denying Peter Costello his chance to lead the Liberal Party.”
Wow, so that is why he lost the election?
739: By refusing to acknowledge that two different senates didn’t want to pass the six bills originally proposed in 1974, then calling a joint sitting to get them through (refusing to respect the senate’s right to reject/review bills independently of the HOR). This set the precedent for ignoring conventions with regards to the upper house, which in turn cause Fraser to block supply.
I cant see any of that lot winning-sorry! Had to laugh, Robb decent, you have to be kidding. Is there a more mean spirited politician anywhere else in the country? he is a grub pure and simple. So much so, I am amazed he sought a front of house role.
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