Four observations that grabbed me from Insiders this morning. One from Barrie Cassidy:
• “Paul Keating described his win in 1993 as one for the true believers. Last night’s was not. Kevin Rudd promised to govern for all Australians. His appeal within the Labor Party itself is tempered because of his conservative cautious stance on so many issues. He will be seen as the leader the party had to have to beat John Howard. Julia Gillard will be the light on the hill.”
Three from George Megalogenis:
• “I suspect Jackie Kelly tipped (Bennelong) over the line for Maxine McKew. Her performance that Thursday morning on AM radio – my understanding of the tracking polls, a few of them went mad on Thursday night. There was actually swings back to Labor in marginals where there were previously narrowings through the week.”
• “Going into this election, 12 out of the top 30 seats for single mothers were held by the Coalition. They’ve lost eight straight off the bat, another three are doubtful, they’ll be left with one out of 30. (Cassidy: Why?) Welfare to work. Mal Brough. May have been popular in the intervention into Aboriginal affairs, but you know, he wanted single mums to go to work. And if they didn’t go to work they were going to lose their benefits. If you think that this didn’t shift votes where the government didn’t expect them … I think it did.”
• “The Liberal Party needs to have a good hard look at its membership base. This wasn’t just Lindsay, we saw a breakout at the Press Club on Thursday where Liberal Party members were heckling female journalists including Michelle Grattan, I think there was a meanness of spirit in the Liberal Party this year that came from its grass roots. I don’t know what it’s about, but Peter Costello (sic) needs to have a good look at it.”
To elaborate on the second point. I don’t have figures on single mothers specifically, but Megalogenis’s demographic tables include data for single parents which shows 11 previously Coalition-held seats in the top 30: Wakefield, Cowper, Lindsay, Leichhardt, Dunkley, Dobell, Solomon, Page, Robertson, Kingston, Bass, with Macarthur, Hasluck, Blair, Herbert and Longman not far out. The only definite survivor out of these is Dunkley, with Labor narrowly ahead in Solomon, Robertson and Herbert, just trailing in Cowper and Macarthur, and victorious in the other nine.
862 Comments
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Adam,
i also think Kevin will be extremely happy that FF are in a position to counter the Greens on social policy.He will get enough support in the Senate to do everything Labor wants except social policy reform….and that will suit kev fine.
it is the best possible scenario for Kevin…..not so for us progressive people of the centre, the left and the right though.
Adam @ 98 – Yep. And whoever assumes the mantle of leadership is going to have to rebuild all of the State Liberal parties as well. They can’t just expect to survive by flipping the Federal Parliament. That might – just might – take six years. Or it could take 15 years. In the meantime, they’re going to have to gin up new leaders, and they can’t do that unless they control a State or two. But, right now, even the chances of that look impossibly remote.
Funniest quote in Sat night’s ABC coverage was when Kerry O’Brien mentioned a strong “swing to the ABC”.
Too true! Especially in Bennelong.
Andrew Robb, in what little I have seen of him, comes off as quite unpleasant.
He has an air of meanness about him, fitting considering the mean spirited govt he belonged to, but in a new Liberal party perhaps not the image you want to cultivate.
The reason why we’ve not heard from Nelson is because he’s doing the numbers and when he’s got them he’ll announce. Brendan has always been tauted as a potential leader, why not give him a shot up until 2010 if he fails or doesnt bring back enough seats, we can go with Malcolm who’ll by then have oodles of experience in politics.
Julie Bishop and Malcolm Turnbull could fight it out for the leadership in 2010.
Thanks, Adam. I am sure you are right about Kevin Rudd’s implementing his promises. It’s what happens next that will create some tensions. You are also right about the infl;uence of unions like the SDA and the AWU. In fact, I wonder if unions that funded non-ALP candidates should not be disaffiliated as an individual member who donated to a non-ALP candidiate woul be expelled. That would shift the balance of power in the party, wouldn’t it?
Andrew Robb is like Tony Abbott, an ex-DLPer who lost his way.
Marko @ 95,
Our resident right-wing wingnut ‘Thommo’ has actually commented on The Times’ article. So at least we know that he’s out there reducing the IQ of people in the UK as well as those here…
What a patronising article – he seems to think he knows more about how Australia should be governed than an Australian. There’s a bit too much “silly cobbers” seeping through that article for my liking.
Keating said long before that Costello will never be a Prime Minister.
He was right. What an astute politician! I’d like to hear, again, how he reach that prediction
Out of the 7 seats in doubt, it looks like Labor are going to win 6 of them.
So that would be a final result of 89 – 59 (49 + 10) – 2.
How sweet it is!
For a more favourable UK viewpoint, there’s this article from The Observer:
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/world/story/0,,2216548,00.html
That’s Andrew I’ve got the personal charms of a grave Robb(er)?
For party leader? Oh, make my day!
This is getting better by the minute!
Chris, yes I think the CFMEU is on very thin ice. I have forgiven the ETU now that Mike Symon has rather unexpectedly won Deakin.
Ah, ShowsOn, we’re just colonials. What would we know?
Swing Lowe @ 108 -
I knew that. But chose to overlook it.
Oh, and for a lefty viewpoint in the UK, here’s The Independent:
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/australasia/article3194066.ece
Showson, no postals have been counted yet so far. Postals always favour the Libs strongest, as they tend to be cast by elderly people.
ShowsOn
Bull butter, there’s still roughly 20% to be counted for each of those 7 seats, the Tories wont lose 6.
Downer on ninemsn -
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=322564
Proving Costello is a rat (and that Downer is delusional):
“Completely unexpected,” Mr Downer said, adding that he had yet to decide whether to throw his hat into the ring for the Liberal leadership role he quit 12 years ago.
And further proof he doesn’t get it:
The long-serving foreign affairs minister said it was impossible to say whether Mr Rudd would be a good prime minister.
“He basically put together a poll-driven campaign and done so very – let’s not be mean spirited about it – very successfully.
“Basically (Mr Rudd) put together a package built on focus groups and quantitative polling and marketed it really well.
That’s the flavour at work… you know, like when Keating dared to touch the Queen, and Fleet Street printed “Hands off Cobber!” They can’t help bringing out that sort of garbage, you know – treating us like we are all convicts.
I believe that postal votes favor the incumbent, not the Liberals, per se. Something like 60/40. Someone correct me if I’m wrong…
Harry H – I hope you’e wrong about Rudd using FF as a way to get the ALP’s socially progressive reforms to fail but we shall soon see.
Thats why I think Turnbull as Opp Leader would be interesting. Given the make-up of his seat Malcolm would surely have to allow a conscience vote on some of these issues? Im hoping he will be like Brogden was in NSW (at least on certain issues). Unfortunately that might mean he suffers the same fate as Brogden. Lets not forget Alex Hawke is in the mix now (shudder).
I think it’s the showpony ticket – all show and no substance. Turnbull *may* become a good politician with some more experience, but I think the campaign showed he’s not quite there yet. And what is it with the Libs and women with the surname “Bishop”? Julie now is like Bronwyn was in the 90s – apparently the next great Coalition woman, for no discernible reason.
I think Joe Hockey would be a solid candidate, though Workchoices does leave a bit of a taint. Brendan Nelson has been the invisible man for a while – why? A friend did float the idea that he was staying low so that he could come out of the election loss not looking too bad and assume the Opposition leadership without much trouble, but I subscribe more to the idea that he’s fairly useless.
Greetings all.
In my first post here since the truly magnificent Labor victory last night, I would firstly say congratulations to Labor supporters and the new PM, Kevin Rudd.
Having watched John Howard’s concession speech at the Wentworth hotel last night, he was statesman-like and dignified in defeat. Of course, it was a terrible way to be retire from politics, but at least he had the conviction to go down fighting for a policy in which he believed. He is the greatest PM in Australia’s history, and will remain so in my view.
I am disappointed that Costello sees no future in politics. He is still young – Howard became PM at 57, whilst Costello is 50. I enjoy his dominating performances in parliament, which would have kept question time interesting.
However, in terms of the Liberal Party’s future, I like the fact that Turnbull has entered the race because I feel he is now the best choice for moving the party forward, and as Adam said earlier, purging the disaster that is the NSW Liberal Party. Having done limited campaigning in Wentworth during the election campaign, Turnbull’s approach is something from which the Liberal Party has much to gain. The inconsistent and complex campaign of 2007 is something which should never be repeated by the Liberals.
As for my thoughts on Rudd’s prime ministership, it seems clear that if he keeps his communist front bench under control, he should be a relatively decent PM. I would also hope that he refrains from sloganeering and maintains a tough stance on illegal immigration and national security.
Oh well, I knew I was being blindly optimistic at 91 for Labor, but Kerist, me and himself indoors haven’t stopped grinning all day. “the Long Dark Teatime of the Soul” is finally over.
Andrew Robb?
Ha HA de har ha. I agree with Glen lol.
Geez Chris,
these dlp’ers are everywhere aren’t they lol
Didn’t know that about Robb.
in regard to Robb, i agree with what everyone says about him. he is an oaf, nasty, boring, hopeless….but that is all irrelevant.
the Libs have got to understand that THEY are irrelevant for the immediate future. the rebuilding must start from within and it will take time. A blonk like Robb could just wile away time federally and do some hard yard fixing behind the scenes for a few years.
the ascension, when and if it occurs, must start thru the states.
I can’t see the politically and partywise inexperienced Turnbull doing anything other than doing more longterm trouble for the Libs.
but they can do what they like. i hope they remain irrelevant.
wonder what the first royal commission will be about
my tip-worstchoices or health
The Labor leads are too big Glen, and the postal / pre-poll votes are splitting close to 50/50.
No need for a Royal Comission into WorkChoices. They just need to get rid of it.
But it would be great to see Gillard holding press conferences releasing all the workplace statistics that Hockey has suppressed.
I just checked Bennelong – it’s 51.86/48.34. Which seems a comfortable lead, just a touch over 3.5%. When will Howard concede?
Postals used strongly to favour the Liberals because rich people tended to be away from home more than poor people. That’s changed because (a) many more people are travelling (b) many more rich people vote Labor and (c) many more people are voting by post just for convenience. It’s true that postals still favour incumbents, because sitting MPs can run stronger postals campaigns by (mis)using their office facilities, but a good opposition campaign can do just as well if it is well funded.
125. GP…his communist front bench..?
Please.
So basically you think he’ll do ok, so long as he behaves like a Liberal PM.
How big of you.
If the Libs are pointing at Labor for their loss (as can be seen from Downer’s comments in 120), they can stay in opposition forever. I’ve seen Labor do a few post-mortems and it usually comes down to the campaign was f’ed, the party didn’t listen to the grass roots members, and that power needed to go more to the grass roots members not the party machines (like factions and all that). The Libs need to do a real post-mortem and actually plan for their future.
A Royal Commision into AWB would see Downer, Vaile and Truss in very deep trouble. Bring it on!
Grog you and the lefties have said you’ll think Turnbull will be good so long as he’s more progressive, don’t be a hypocrite lol!
How many of you lot read the international newspapers. SOme of the American ones have a passing mention of Australian politics. The Washington Post has what looks like a Liberal Party press release. You can find some stories here:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/11/24/AR2007112401406.html
The original mentioned a ’swag of union bosses’
Another over at the New York Times seems to be confused over the RuddStar’s ability at Mandarin and labels him ‘The Premier of Australia’
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/25/world/asia/25australia.html?ref=world
But ‘The Independent’ in the UK – gets it right – and a warning – it is very harsh.
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/australasia/article3194066.ece
“As for my thoughts on Rudd’s prime ministership, it seems clear that if he keeps his communist front bench under control, he should be a relatively decent PM. I would also hope that he refrains from sloganeering and maintains a tough stance on illegal immigration and national security.”
yeah, thanks.. we’ll… umm… take your advice on board…. hmmm…
Pretty quickly you would imagine. Howard knows that the Liberals really don’t want a by-election.
I think Labor is playing this right in not claiming a victory.
Haven’t we already had a Royal Commission into AWB?
HarryH,
I don’t have time or the inclination to post a full list – you’d be surprised! From a former Governor-General down!
The danger for the Libs is that they become like the state parties. Some Labor people might like this to happen, but it’s bad for democracy. Even Labor Governments have to be kept under pressure, and we all benefit from strong oppositons.
Julie Bishop is utterly unimpressive. Her policies on education are IPA babble.
The likelihood is that whomever the Libs choose will not get to be PM but will be overthrown by impatient coupsters who can’t be bothered to do the actual work needed to rebuild.
Adam: Albanese and Tebbut are another.
Howard will concede once the first batch of postal votes come in. Unless they come in at a 2:1 ratio in favour of him, he’s lost the seat. So expect it to happen then…
I’ll be honest about last night and say before Qld results I was nervous. We were getting a seat here, seat there, and I was wondering where the 16 were going to come from. I even said that I was concerned to my mates who were political novices. Then Qld hit, and it was over. I never expected Qld to go THAT well. Other states went OK, but it was won in Qld.
Laborites from all over Australia are in debt to the Banana benders. I’m never going to look at that state the same way again. I wish Qld Labor supporters the best for the future
Except in the State of Origin Rugby League off course
LOL
Question without notice to all. How many of the seats that changed hands were Labor behind on primaries but won on the back of (mostly) Green preferences?
For George@139
$weetie is originaly a red-head – makes him a Communist I guess .
Glen, I don’t think Turnbull will be good. (I think Turnbull thinks he’ll be good).
Just out of curiousity, did any journo press Costello pre-election what he would do if they lost? Howard was pressed, of course, but I have no recollection that Cossie was.
Swing Lowe, my impression is that they have been counting postal ballots all day today at the AEC…
ps just got nice sms from craig thompson
pps shows on-maybe a royal commission is best because then ALL the shite that was done can be fully exposed and put on the public record (also future generations would have a guide as to not what to do)
And Worstchoices should be the first of many royal commissions imho
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