Four observations that grabbed me from Insiders this morning. One from Barrie Cassidy:
• “Paul Keating described his win in 1993 as one for the true believers. Last night’s was not. Kevin Rudd promised to govern for all Australians. His appeal within the Labor Party itself is tempered because of his conservative cautious stance on so many issues. He will be seen as the leader the party had to have to beat John Howard. Julia Gillard will be the light on the hill.”
Three from George Megalogenis:
• “I suspect Jackie Kelly tipped (Bennelong) over the line for Maxine McKew. Her performance that Thursday morning on AM radio – my understanding of the tracking polls, a few of them went mad on Thursday night. There was actually swings back to Labor in marginals where there were previously narrowings through the week.”
• “Going into this election, 12 out of the top 30 seats for single mothers were held by the Coalition. They’ve lost eight straight off the bat, another three are doubtful, they’ll be left with one out of 30. (Cassidy: Why?) Welfare to work. Mal Brough. May have been popular in the intervention into Aboriginal affairs, but you know, he wanted single mums to go to work. And if they didn’t go to work they were going to lose their benefits. If you think that this didn’t shift votes where the government didn’t expect them … I think it did.”
• “The Liberal Party needs to have a good hard look at its membership base. This wasn’t just Lindsay, we saw a breakout at the Press Club on Thursday where Liberal Party members were heckling female journalists including Michelle Grattan, I think there was a meanness of spirit in the Liberal Party this year that came from its grass roots. I don’t know what it’s about, but Peter Costello (sic) needs to have a good look at it.”
To elaborate on the second point. I don’t have figures on single mothers specifically, but Megalogenis’s demographic tables include data for single parents which shows 11 previously Coalition-held seats in the top 30: Wakefield, Cowper, Lindsay, Leichhardt, Dunkley, Dobell, Solomon, Page, Robertson, Kingston, Bass, with Macarthur, Hasluck, Blair, Herbert and Longman not far out. The only definite survivor out of these is Dunkley, with Labor narrowly ahead in Solomon, Robertson and Herbert, just trailing in Cowper and Macarthur, and victorious in the other nine.
862 Comments
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I agree with the person who said on the previous thread that Costello is lazy and sees as below him the job of rebuilding the party, a-la Bomber in 1996. I like to think it summarises the collective state of mind of the Liberals. In which case, they’d better get ready for a VERY long time in Opposition.
Bishop as deputy would be flogged by Julia in any respect anyone cares to mention. For the life of me I can’t see why she’s hailed as a promising prospect. If this is the best the Libs can offer, Heaven help them.
As for Rudd’s agenda, in particular the ABC, I found this article very heartening (apologies if it’s been posted before):
http://thebulletinelection.ninemsn.com.au/the_wizard_of_oz.htm
just remember royal commissions can bite those who start them up…
148 Flash – yes he was asked (can’t remember where) in the last week. He fudged.
(I’ll try and find it)
i think Rudd would be highly highly reluctant to put the Howard Government to the legal sword thru commisions and such.
but he might just make an exception for Dolly and AWB. It is personal between the 2 diplomats.
i think Rudd has total disdain for Dolly and his performances as Foreign Affairs head…especially AWB.
Generic Liberal, that was the first sensible thing I’ve ever seen you say here (apart from the last paragraph of course). Have you considered running for leader?
Re your last point. The first boatload of bearded pseudo-refugee jihadists that pokes its bow into Australian waters will learn that Rudd Means What He Says. It will be off to Xmas Island and then back to Bankruptistan with them.
The state elections are (now) always held in November – which makes the postal dynamic a little different.
As it’s just after the end of Uni, the Uni people on post-exam holidays are a larger part of the postals.
Hence the state experience (i’m lead to believe) indicates the postals favour the Liberals by less than is historically the case in November elections.
There will be as many Royal Commissions as needed to keep the Libs down for as long as desired. That’s pretty much how this game is going to be played. It will decimate the Lib leadership – which may explain why Costello is so quick to head to the exits. He’s not weak willed: he knows what’s coming.
Marko,
From the AEC website, no postals have been counted in Bennelong. They have counted the pre-polls though (which Howard won 51/49 – not enough to reverse the trend).
What is this with “white muslims” ? 75 & 78? Do you /have you lived in western Sydney? How can you say what they are afraid of?
Bosnians were white but that didnt help them much -just ask the Dutch who handed over severalthousands of males aged between 9 & 60.
Call a spade a spade. Declare your prejudices .
Thanks Grog.
Holding a Royal Commission into WorkChoices would be completely at odds with Rudd’s mantra that “it’s about the future not the past”.
Adam 136 – there will not be a further Royal Commision into AWB. There is an unwritten agreement (I wouldn’t say a convention) between political parties not to hold serious inquiries into the activities of a previous government. The rationale is that if one party does try to nail their opponents, then the other mob will do the same in return at a later date. Not a bad idea really. Better to get on with something positive. We all know that Howard, Downer and Vaile lied to the Cole commision – they have to live with that.
Who agrees with Glenn Milne that governments can no longer rely on a strong economy to win elections?
Was yesterday a sign that voters now understand that the government doesn’t really control or manage the economy, and that the real role of government is to figure out the best ways to spend money?
Here’s the rub with the Liberal leader. Whoever takes up the mantle sips from a poisoned chalice (mixing my metaphors only slightly). Labor will be in for at least 2 terms, so whoever leads now will be opp leader for at least 6 years before having a real chance of winning the 2013 election. By that time the punters are used to that person being ONLY an opp leader. Think about it. Gough got the leadership (was it ‘67?), lost in 69 but recorded (still) greatest 2pp swing. Hawkie was leader for about 3 nanoseconds before he scored the top job, Howard was made leader again in ‘95 and won in ‘96 and of course Rudd had < 12 mths in the job before winning. Whoever becomes opp leader now will not be their next PM, unless he/ she is dumped at some point and then re-claims the leadership role, and then goes on to win an election. 2016 maybe at the earliest?
So….do you think this is Costello’s game plan? To have some other shmuck sort out the carnage, lose in 2010 and then make a play for leader so he can win in 2013? Such a fanciful scenario would appeal only to the most devious mind. On the other hand, Costello is a lazy, arrogant, totally self-centred egoist (verging on the pathological variety) who has only ever thought about himself, and never had the guts to grab what he thought was rightfully his. It’s probably the latter.
Marko 157 – read my 161
Swing Lowe – Ta. They must be starting their postal count with the undecided seats first…
I agree. Not to mention a huge waste of money. We already know that WorkChoices is bad policy, and bad economically. The government should just get rid of it.
Who wrote that crap George…did you have a good night?
Alex – Sensible. It’s mutually assured destruction any other way.
Marko,
None of the undecided seats have any postals recorded as being counted. Just pre-polls. The first postals should start trickling in tomorrow…
Aussieguru01, an awesome night! Didn’t get to bed until 5AM. Howbout you?
Just read the Landeryou blog. Couldn’t work it out — is he seriously barracking for Kevin Andrews as the dark horse for the Lib leadership? Honestly?
The man is as sinister as the Blair Witch Project and his values are about two decades behind even Jonny Howard. I’d have thought Bronwyn would have a better chance than Andrews?
Did we see anything of the Exclusive Brethren? When the Lindsay scandal broke out I fully expected to see a flood of complaints, centered around their operations.
They did operate in Chisholm last time, but not a whimper here. Glen I didn’t see you at Anna Burke’s victory celebrations.
Alex, well it’s time that convention was broken. AWB was a criminal conspiracy immensely harmful to Australia’s economic and security interests, and the Cole Commission was hamstrung by its terms of reference. One way or another the truth will be brought out and when it is Downer and Vaile will be politically ruined for good.
No 151
Pathological Logic, I think you have to consider the fact that after nearly 12 years in government, it is not going to be easy for members to pick themselves up and move on. Especially someone like Costello.
In terms of Julie Bishop’s prospects, I don’t think she’ll be a good choice for any leadership job. My ideal leadership team would be a Costello and Turnbull, as leader and treasurer respectively. However, that won’t be so with Costello’s retirement.
It is sickens me that Brough was defeated in Longman. He was a talented politician and had potential to be Leader or another high-profile shadow minister.
I think the first inquiry will be in to the Haneef matter. Rudd has flagged that and I get the impression he intends to implement his programme asap.
Tiptoe may have a two-election strategy in mind. Someone else as human sacrifice for the first election, while Tiptoe ‘mentors’ up and comers (ie builds his support base). An election loss, and Tiptoe is available as white knight. He appears to have a psychological problem with being a front runner. Alternatively, he may be getting ready to pull the plug and go out and make a mozza. That would leave field that looks a bit like it has had a good dose of EI. Meanwhile, there must be something wrong with the Murray water by the time it gets to Adelaide. Dolly appears to believe that the voters must have got it all wrong. To fix it all he has to do is call for a Please Explain.
Okay, I lost my $200.00, but I’m happier than can be imagined.
Went out for breakfast this morning – I’ve never seen so many happy faces in Grayndler (the most depressed electorate in Australia, or so they said 2 years ago)!
This is good. Latham would have been better, but it’s good.
I knew waking up with Style Council’s “Walls come tumbling down” in my head was a good sign.
As for Costello’s resignation – whle Tip is a good nickname, I think VB (Victoria Bitter) may serve him well.
Maybe Robb is prepared to be the sacrifical lamb.
Just logged on for the first time since this morning – did I hear right that Matty Price passed away?
No doubt Costello remembers Gareth Evans’s complete failure to adapt to opposition after a long stint in government. Imagine having to answer your own phone!
Every early on in the campaign I wrote a post called ‘Women Ket to Election’. Can I get some feedback of what people think now the election is over.
http://ozdemocracy.com/?p=8
sorry ‘Women Key to Election’
Sorry Mad Professor, hadn’t read your entry at 163. Two devious minds at work.
Your predictions in QLD were worse than hopeless.
How’s that for feedback?
Adam,
Do you have an idea as to how many postal votes are expected in Bennelong?
4AM for me George (thats 5AM your time). You know where I was…History being made!
#183 – only 2 devious minds? I wouldn’t be surprised if hacks from both sides trawl this site for ideas!
ShowsOn @ 184
I already said I eat my own words like I said I would. There is such a think as a sore winner.
Don’t you love how Costello still think what he thinks matters:
Hands Off Futures Fund
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22818280-29277,00.html
Adam 173 – I totally agree with your views on the AWB crime. I just don’t think Rudd will go in that direction. I mentioned here some weeks ago that I personally have reasonable proof (from my previous work connections to a government agency) that Howard broke the law in regard to certain intelligence activities in Australia. Others know about this too but there won’t be any inquiry. If I stuck my head up, I’d be sent off to the gulag.
Adam – Why would the CFMEU be on thin ice? Because their left wing? If you go by that mantra then you would have to add the AMWU and CPSU no?
I raise this here because the earlier thread was closed, but I think K Jin’s comments about his view of Greens policy needs addressing.
K Jin suggests , at # 561 in the previous thread when suggesting that “The Greens are bad for Trees” that: “Greens are bad for trees because: They stop back burning during the winter and so in the summer, the bonfire of the bush is all the bigger.
Now, I’m no expert on the policies of all parties on this matter, but I AM aware that the Green’s policy on Biological Diversity includes the goal of:
“effective habitat management, including ecologically appropriate use of fire.“
It also , in its policy on Natural resource management states that:
“The Australian Greens believe that:
Australia’s natural resources must be managed in accordance with the principles of intergenerational equity, biodiversity conservation and respect for the traditional ownership of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples.”
I’ve worked with Aboriginal groups in Australia for more than 30 years, and I’ve seen traditional Aboriginal fire management practices in action in remote parts of Australia. I’ve yet to see anything in the policy of any other parties, I’m afraid, that recognises the importance of such things.
K-Jin, myths like your suggestions here are easy to start but often harder to stop. If you can show me where a Greens policy suggests that they are opposed to controlled burns in situations where they are necessary and appropriate, please feel free to point them out to me.
I’m more than happy to accept that there may be particular situations where they have opposed such things from time to time, and more than happy to accept that they may well have “got such things wrong” on occasion too.
But it seems to me that in their policies they provide a recognition of the importance of environmental burns that you won’t actually find in those of other political organisations here. As I said, please point me to some concrete, documented, examples if I am wrong about this.
Cheers
Rod
Vale Matt Price
160 Flash
Here it is:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22781986-29277,00.html
He pretty much telegraphs what he was going to do.
O/T, but while looking at the AEC’s 2PP by Division page (http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseTppByDivision-13745-NAT.htm), I couldn’t help noticing the significant (15-20%) drop in voter turnout in many electorates, even where all polling places have returned results. Not being familiar with this stuff, I have to ask: is this actually indicative of a reduced turnout, or does it just mean they’re waiting for postal votes or somesuch?
Emphasis on the word “winner”.
Stephen it would certainly be interesting to know whether any one particular demographic aided Rudd’s election but I don’t think we can really know. What we do know is polling showed a weaker swing to Labor among women. Whether this is accurate or not I don’t know. Surprisingly most polling I’ve shown suggest women are more likely to vote for conservative parties.
Landeryou couldn’t possibly be serious about Kevin Andrews?
Costello has no clever plan to regain the leadership later on. He will quit fairly soon, probably after the first session of parliament. With big bucks jobs in the offing, he won’t be sitting on any backbench for too long. Good riddance.
197
Which polling are you using? I would like to have a look.
OK, Turnbull expected, Nelson I could understand, Hockey, yeh OK, but Andrews?
For the love of God, Allah, Buddha and anything else considered holy….
NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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