Four observations that grabbed me from Insiders this morning. One from Barrie Cassidy:
• “Paul Keating described his win in 1993 as one for the true believers. Last night’s was not. Kevin Rudd promised to govern for all Australians. His appeal within the Labor Party itself is tempered because of his conservative cautious stance on so many issues. He will be seen as the leader the party had to have to beat John Howard. Julia Gillard will be the light on the hill.”
Three from George Megalogenis:
• “I suspect Jackie Kelly tipped (Bennelong) over the line for Maxine McKew. Her performance that Thursday morning on AM radio – my understanding of the tracking polls, a few of them went mad on Thursday night. There was actually swings back to Labor in marginals where there were previously narrowings through the week.”
• “Going into this election, 12 out of the top 30 seats for single mothers were held by the Coalition. They’ve lost eight straight off the bat, another three are doubtful, they’ll be left with one out of 30. (Cassidy: Why?) Welfare to work. Mal Brough. May have been popular in the intervention into Aboriginal affairs, but you know, he wanted single mums to go to work. And if they didn’t go to work they were going to lose their benefits. If you think that this didn’t shift votes where the government didn’t expect them … I think it did.”
• “The Liberal Party needs to have a good hard look at its membership base. This wasn’t just Lindsay, we saw a breakout at the Press Club on Thursday where Liberal Party members were heckling female journalists including Michelle Grattan, I think there was a meanness of spirit in the Liberal Party this year that came from its grass roots. I don’t know what it’s about, but Peter Costello (sic) needs to have a good look at it.”
To elaborate on the second point. I don’t have figures on single mothers specifically, but Megalogenis’s demographic tables include data for single parents which shows 11 previously Coalition-held seats in the top 30: Wakefield, Cowper, Lindsay, Leichhardt, Dunkley, Dobell, Solomon, Page, Robertson, Kingston, Bass, with Macarthur, Hasluck, Blair, Herbert and Longman not far out. The only definite survivor out of these is Dunkley, with Labor narrowly ahead in Solomon, Robertson and Herbert, just trailing in Cowper and Macarthur, and victorious in the other nine.
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“There is an unwritten agreement (I wouldn’t say a convention) between political parties not to hold serious inquiries into the activities of a previous government.”
Howard held inquiries into Keatings piggeries and labors Centennial House, both were bullsh*t muckraking inquiries desigend to embaress labor that did not find anything.
But as others have said Rudd said it is about the future and he was elected to fix the stuff ups and damage the libs have done to the Australian economy and society.
There won’t be any inquiries, the’yd be a huge waste of money, a Royal Commission costs upwards of $100 million, and time and just confirm what everyone already knows.
Interesting that Costello mentioned he’d now spend time deciding on a career outside of politics.
Wouldn’t the honourable thing to do be to resign immediately?
I’m not sure I like having our funds spent on subsidising Costello’s job search for up to 3 years.
Interesting Grog, thanks.
I think the next opposition leader COULD become the next PM for the following simple reason:
Sadly, the indications are reasonably strong that the economy could tank in the upcoming term through no fault of Labor. The US is on the brink on recession. One US investment bank said the US housing market right now is in its worst state since the Great Depression. And Australia has now recorded 17 consecutive years of expansion so statistically, some kind of crunch is on.
So Labor could get thumped, just as Whitlam did, with dire economic circumstances beyond its control – and pay the toll.
The best hope is that China keeps expanding at current levels without a hitch.
The Libs are pretty stupid, but Andrews as leader? don’t think so.
No 198
Costello was an excellent Treasuer Alex McDonnel. You talk about us living in the past, but if you’re going to keep mentioning Keating, you’re no better.
GP – when did I mention keating?
Re: the Lib base, I thought it was somehow apt that Howard couldn’t get through his concession speech for all the yobbo shouting of “Go Johhny”. That’s the current Lib base right there. Bay 13.
My thoughts on Turnbull (from Ozforums):
I think putting Turnbull as Liberal leader has the prospect of actually destroying the Liberal Party forever.
If you look at what is actually going on in the grass-roots branches in NSW – think the Kelly Gang in Lindsay, think the back-stabbing of Brogden, think the religious far-right – Turnbull is so completely out of step with these people that I cannot imagine a less suited leader for them.
He is moderate, he is a Republican, he was in the ALP, he is “soft” on social issues (gay rights), he is pro-Kyoto. If he is made leader there is the prospect of trench-warfare and a break between leadership and base.
Interesting times.
Having always looked forward to Matt’s articles, I felt so so sad to hear of his passing away. It was hard not to like him even though I did not know him personnally. My thoughts are with his family!!
Who will be the first to get stuck into Costello in the first sitting and how many minutes in?
Boerwar @29 Thanks
Johnny B Gon @58 and ruawake @71
“Nelson is an opportunist – AMA president who sold his soul to be in Govt.”
When he was AMA president he took it to the left after the rule of Bruce Sheppard. I remember at the time the commentary being about his support of Aboriginal Health, Gay Rights and the fact that he had an earring (shock horror!).
In politics there is always the balance of having to support some things you don’t like to get the things that are important to you up. Deciding which battles to fight is always difficult. From what has been said of the Howard years, there didn’t seem to be a lot of “melting pot of ideas” but rather a single rodent’s iron fist. So Nelson maybe an opportunist, or more kindly, he may have naively thought he could influence policy from within. With the Iron fist gone, him (and probably others, e.g. Petro Georgio) may pull the party back from the Brotherhood.
I suppose at the end of the day, like Rudd I’m prepared to give them the benefit of the doubt and try to see the best in most people – they were all working in different ways under the Howard dictatorship. Now the rat poison has been applied, I’m hoping Rudd will soften some of his policies and the wets of the Liberal party will find their voice.
I realise I maybe living with the fairies, hoping for the best in people, but it gets me through the day.
Oh dear. Still peddling the ‘Costello was an excellent treasurer’ myth. He will go down in history as the laziest treasurer since Howard. His one great achievement – giving us a new tax. Learn something about economics before making a judgment on Cossie’s skill as a finance man.
Flash @ 203
I main problem with China is that its big export is cheap manufactured products to places like the US. China could be in for a slow down if the US falls.
I’m not so pessimistic Flash.
But.
The next opposition leader could be the next PM, if s/he is good enough to stick around till at least 2013. (and probably 2016)
Generic Person Says:
“Costello was an excellent Treasuer Alex McDonnel. You talk about us living in the past, but if you’re going to keep mentioning Keating, you’re no better.”
Costello didn’t have the balls to take over the leadership when he could have. He coasted along as treasurer (the “laziest” ever?). He lost the election (that’s right, remember the “team”) and now he’s resigned and doesn’t wanna play any more. He’s a loser and history will remember him as the no-action treasurer.
GP – Costello was a suburban lawyer with no knowledge of economics. He basically just read out the documents provided by all the Economics PhD s in Treasury. He paid off government debt by selling the family silver like Telstra. Then along comes China with buckets of money for our minerals. Blind Freddie could have run the economy well over the past five years. Costello was a gutless, bully boy fraud.
Condolences to Matt Price’s family and friends. Far too young to go.
That much is true I admit. Opposition Leader after a defeat is not a fun job. But in Costello’s case it fits in with past behaviour. He presented in this campaign as part of ‘the team’ (we can argue whether this was willingly or grudgingly), but if they had won, presumably he would have been happy to accept the prime ministership.
Costello failed to take any opportunity to challenge, even when he had the numbers (after APEC, for example). The fact remains that he does not have, and never has had, the requisite ‘killer instinct’. He was happy to have it handed to him but some (OK, a lot) of thankless flogging is suddenly below him.
Whatever you think of that, the fact is that his departure has suddenly left the Libs spectacularly lacking in top-level ‘talent’, or at least anyone who has cred with the electorate at large. As Possum observed over on his site, the disloyalty is plain for all to see. And one presumes that cuts both ways.
Man of steel.
Rust in peace.
Yes, so sad about Matt Price. Rest in peace. I am glad he had the little amount of time/warning he did to say his good byes and make his peace. We are the poorer to his passing.
BV,
I have to disagree with you. The Liberal base still remains the North-Shore/Eastern Suburbs set – moderate conservatives, who are economically conservative but socially progressive. This is why the blue-ribbon Liberal seats are Bradfield and Higgins – they personify this mindset perfectly.
The problem with the Libs is that their membership base (not their voting base) is ultra-conservative in NSW. They are the disgusting runts who think that playing sexual or racial politics is a perfectly acceptable tactic to win seats or preselection – people like Alex Hawke, Michael Towke, David Clarke and Jackie Kelly.
Malcolm Turnbull (and Brendan Nelson and Joe Hockey) all come from the traditional Liberal base. The only chance that the traditional Libs in NSW have a chance of wresting power from the Uglies is if one of the above three become leader of the Federal party and impose their will on the State party. Otherwise, you’re likely to see more incidents like what happened to John Brogden…
Should Costello resign, I will fully support him. It gives him a chance to start a new life. There is no need to imprison him for the next three years. It will also give the Liberal a chance to inject someone new from Higgins. In this way someone would be making a positive contribution in Parliament and at the same time would be better serving Higgins. Costello in the meantime would flourish outside Parliament. This makes so much of sense to me – everyone wins. I should say I am a Labor supporter!
There is one iron rule about new governments – the predictions of what they will be like almost always turn out to be untrue, that’s why new leadership is exciting!
Keating did more in his first 12 months than Costello did in 11.5 years.
Did Costello actually ever have an original policy idea? He says the future fund was his idea, but why do we need to lock away a few billion only to cream off the interest every year? Why not just pay for things when you want to do something, or give it back by lowering taxes?
The future funds are really just something to talk about, they aren’t actually good policy.
Keating was right on Costello – he spent 11 years swinging in a hammock.
He will be largely forgotten; remembered only as a political warning for those young ambitious politicians who think everything will get handed to them.
True, not many people thought Hawke and Keating would be as successful as they turned out to be when elected in 1983. No one knew they would create the modern Australian economy in the way they did.
Like most of the people at my ALP/Green election party last night, I was disappointed in Rudd’s speech — bureaucratic, heavily loaded with cliches and formulaic phrases, lacking fire. But today when responding to questions he was lively and engaging. I hope we see more of this Rudd.
On Julie Bishop, I can’t understand why Glen et al think she would be good in leadership positions. She’s of limited intelligence, narrow and rigid in her thinking (believe me). OK, she looks ‘well groomed’, but that’s not going to get her far. She’s more or less a younger version of Bronwyn.
Can I just say the De-Anne Kelly’s loss is one of the sweetest.
(at least she won’t have to worry about resigning over the RPP rorts lol)
The other rule is the calumny and evil of the old government must be exposed by the incoming government, shock horror budget black holes discovered in 1983 and 1996 that no one knew about! The horror, Right now a standard narrative is being discussed about the old government which will probably be debuted at the first sitting of parliament in feb 2008 – my tip 12 years of indolence in using good times to prepare australia for the future.
hahahahhh amazing! BetFair still offers bet on Bennelong
McKew $1.02 / Howard $15
Howard still has hope
Even though it was expected, I imagine he would’ve been feeling a bit of shock.
I actually really liked the part when he said we have to build a new consensus, and end the division based on union & business, federal & state, environment & economic growth. Of course that’s very Third Way Blair / Clinton talk, but it is true.
I can’t believe we just went through an election campaign when one side wanted to talk constantly about unions and interest rates. My early prediction for 2010 is that unions won’t be an issue at all.
Kennett was on tv tonight saying Costello was ditching the Libs when they needed him the most.
But it ’s the truth Edward.
George it may happen that there could be another crack at Higgins in a by-election. I wouldn’t be surprise.
ESJ:
“my tip 12 years of indolence in using good times to prepare australia for the future.”
That’s your “tip”??? It should be the bleeding obvious!
The Higgins by-election will be quite soon.
Aussieguru01 Says:
“George it may happen that there could be another crack at Higgins in a by-election. I wouldn’t be surprise.”
I hope so mate.
I’m so glad someone else enjoyed this! The parliament will be improved immeasurably without her pretending Labor are communists.
This would be true. The Coalition pissed billions against the wall in the form of massively increased transfer payments – $90 billion in fact.
The future fund is a con – sell off income producing assets so they can be invested in – income producing shares.
Codswallop.
Fair go, Costello needed SOMETHING to talk about during all those question times.
What a disgusting effort by Costello!. No true intestinal fortitude. No feeling of responsibility to the party and crafting its recovery. Just what one would expect from a bully-boy.
does anybody know who the “father” or “mother” of the house will be?
De-Ann Kelly’s last words in parliament:
Mrs De-Anne Kelly—Mr Deputy Speaker, I rise on a point of order. I understand the Leader of the Opposition supports this, but he is not in the House. He is never here.
Interjection
The DEPUTY SPEAKER (Hon. IR Causley)—There is no point of order. That was a frivolous point of order.
lol well done. On your way.
I recall a while back that De Anne Kelly was publicly criticising veterans – not long after she was made junior minister for Defence. She failed at that and was dumped.
I predict that, as a result of the Coalition scare campaign at this election, unions will enjoy something of a minor resurgence – they will be kind of trendy, intrigueing, macho in a good way.
3/4 down the page
http://www.crooksandliars.com/
Edward StJohn Says:
“does anybody know who the “father” or “mother” of the house will be?”
ESJ, that’s one bit of our democracy I’d rather they dispensed with.
Quess what guys I have just placed a $500 bet on the Australian Labor Party to win the next election,
The ALP’s odds are currently at $1.16 to ANY OTHER PARTY at $4.60 at Centrebet
And if the next election campaign is anything to go by what has happened in the past 6 weeks
I can hardly wait
I agree to some extent that Costello lacked the conviction to challenge for the leadership when he had the opportunity. But even if he had challenged at APEC, I doubt whether it would have made much difference, especially with Rudd so well established. Any change was best made in 2006, not a nanosecond before the election.
As for thankless flogging being below him, well I think it is below him. He’s been a successful Treasurer for more than a decade and is now thrust into the political wilderness for a minimum of three years. A man his age can achieve more in the commerical world and retain a family life. I don’t think I can blame him, as much as it is a disappointing loss to the party leadership-wise.
The liberals do have talent on the front bench. It is a shame, however, that Mal Brough was defeated in his seat. While people may disagree with the intervention, Brough was a talented politician and he came across as reasonably honest and moderate. Internal sources are very much aggrieved by the loss, as they considered him leadership material.
As for top-level talent, there is no doubt that Turnbull is talented. He has had real world experience and I think he will do well as leader, if elected.Yes, he is politically inexperienced, but I doubt Downer, Nelson or Abbott will be as marketable.
My choice for leadership team Malcolm Turnbull & Julie Bishop with Senate leader Marie Payne’s (NSW)
In writing that the Liberal Party needs to reform its membership base which appears to be dominated by two groups.
The older members longing for Menzies
The younger ones tend to be negative and nasty
The Liberal Party needs to return to its roots, may I suggest its time for a proper membership drive, currant membership is less than 10,000 now in the UK the Conservatives have a membership base of around 300,000.
Based on the Australian population the Liberal Party should have a membership of around 100,000 but this will mean the Liberal Party will need to get in touch with the 20 and 30 somethings.
To show my point at the height of Menzies the Kooyong young Liberal branch had more members than the whole of the currant Young Liberals.
Yes its true that people are busier today, but that is an excuse run by both Parties, the people see our Parties for what they are.
The Liberal Party has become a miserable nasty and extreme outfit that hasn’t moved with the times and while the ALP has its faults at least its a more open and diverse Party
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