A more lucid analysis will have to wait for tomorrow. For the moment I can only offer some swing breakdowns: 5.6 per cent in Sydney, 5.5 per cent in the rest of New South Wales; 5.4 per cent in Melbourne, 4.7 per cent in the rest of Victoria; 7.8 per cent in Brisbane, 8.5 per cent in the rest of Queensland; 1.4 per cent in Perth, 4.1 per cent in the rest of WA; 5.8 per cent in Adelaide, 9.2 per cent in the rest of SA (Mayo, Barker and Grey); 2.5 per cent in Tasmania; 1.7 per cent in ACT; 2.8 per cent in NT.
I think I can also manage an overview for the Senate, which has produced a surprisingly strong result for the Coalition and a number of disappointments for the Greens. Kerry Nettle is gone in NSW, with three seats each for Labor and the Coalition. It’s looking like the same result in Victoria, although Greens candidate Richard di Natale might yet take the final seat from the third Liberal candidate Scott Ryan. The Greens also seem to be falling short in Queensland, their candidate 2.4 per cent behind Labor’s third for the final seat. Better news for the Greens from Western Australia, which turned in its expected result of three Liberal, two Labor, one Greens, and South Australia, where their candidate looks likely to just keep ahead of Labor at the second last exclusion and win the final seat on their preferences. Tasmania is a clear three for Labor, two for Coalition and one for Greens, and Australian Capital Territory and Northern Territory split one Labor and one (Country) Liberal as normal.
Assuming the Greens don’t get up in Victoria, and unless my late night/early morning arithmetic leads me astray, that points to 18 seats out of 40 for both Labor and the Coalition, three for the Greens and one for Nick Xenophon. Combined with ongoing Senators, that means 37 for the Coalition (one short of a blocking majority) and 32 for Labor, with the balance consisting of five for the Greens, one Family First and one Nick Xenophon. The Greens will thus not hold the balance of power in their own right, with the Coalition being able to stitch together a blocking majority with Fielding or Xenophon or an absolute majority with them both. Interesting times ahead.
1,248 Comments
So do we interpret that the Senate swing has not matched that in the House of Reps?
Hi William,
Do you mean ACT and NT splitting one ALP and one LP (CLP) as normal?
Have to say I am really disappointed that Humphries got his quota in ACT. Real shame, I think Tucker would have been an infinite improvement on that cretin.
I would also like to say that the wonders of modern communication meant I was able to watch the entire ABC election coverage, and part of rage, live from Wimbledon. Marvellous stuff. Made me really homesick!
Have corrected that point of confusion in my post, Dogford. Liberal vote in ACT is 34.07 per cent, so Gary Humphries home and hosed.
How did others make out with the bookies? We found out in this house how futile betting really is. We bet on 5 individual seats, won in only two of those and made a grand total of $1 compared to our initial layout. Have Mal Brough to thank for that, otherwise we would have lost $50 compared to the inital layout.
How did others do?
I cleaned up.
Made a nice little profit, well worth the effort!
This thread does not come up with the initial load of the PB page. You have to go to the end of the old thread and get it through your link, William. Is that a problem with my computer or if not, will you load it to the main page? The first thread I see is one of the special threads for monitoring the seats that are too close to call.
Well done William. Which seats did you bet on? Corangimite?
I made money only on Bennelong, and that was with a free bet. I was counting on North Sydney.
Morning tragics.
QUEENSLANDER.
Petrie, Richmond, Macquarie, Deakin, Braddon, Moreton, Bonner and Greenway. $2500 payout on $1300 outlay. Only bet that didn’t come in was a speculative $20 flutter on Wentworth at 6-1.
Re 7,
Thanks, William
Wiliam,
My I ask if you need more donations for running the site? Your bandwidth has served us well in the last few days.
I take it you’re not still getting that problem Julie?
William, first thanks for the great work.
Congrats on nailing the Labor seat total.
This is an excellent Senate update which the silly tv networks totally ignore.
My only comment at this stage is that thankfully the Family First Senator promised to abolish WorkChoices in his electoral advert on television, which is the most important legislation for Rudd Labor to get through.
Presumably it can’t be until after 1 July, or will it be allowed to go through earlier? Minchin on ABC didn’t sound inclined to give Labor a mandate free pass, saying that Labor previously held up the GST and other legislation for which Howard had won a mandate in an election.
Then again, it will be Opp. Leader Costello calling the shots, and he might be more than happy to see the Workchoices albatross cut down sooner rather than later, and being obstructionist for the sake of a few months is not a good look. It will be an indicator whether he’s going to show a different style of leadership than never give an inch Howard.
13, No William, it cleared itself up as soon as I noted the problem. Seems the gremlins out there heard me
William, do you keep a count of the number of posts since the campaign was launched, must be in the many thousands.
QUEENSLANDER. YES we hand cricket bats in both hands. Interesting the guy who made the baseball quote Goss Now works for his former employees wife and his former employee is now PM
(10) Impressive. I wish I’d bet on Dickson. Dutton was a cretin, and really had to go. I am really pleased to see the parliament rid of a few first class idiots. None more so that Dutton, and maybe Dave Tollner. Gee whizz, how did these guys ever get in there?
On Gary Humphries winnng in ACT. Can we take it that Rudd’s threat to drastically slash the Public Service might have hurt Labor there?
Julie,
I lost a bunch of lettuce betting on Howard to win, way back when the odds were almost even at 2 to 1 because I so desperately wanted Howard to lose.
Obviously doesn’t matter compared to the Homeric Ruddslide (biggest swing since Fraser’s over Whitlam?).
“Oh,happy days, oh happy day……” -haven’t felt so good in years!!!!
Just a small niggle-there should have been some official acknowledgement by Labor of the contribution that the Greens made in their win they would not have won it without them. And good to see John Faulkner receive a public thanks for all the work he has done….such good value. Lastly,relieved that Petro Georgiou has retained his seat as he had the courage to speak up re asylum issues.
May the phoenix that rises from the Lib ashes be truly liberal and humanitarian.
Thanks,William ….a priceless site. And thanks to all of you who provided this ‘L’ plater with so much insight and humour.
I also did ok on betting. Had 2k on Labor @ 1.22, 40 on McKew @ 2.85 and the free $10 on Wentworth. Shame about Wentworth, but so happy that the direction of the ation will change for the better.
Happy happy day.
Yesterday I dared not hope, but today I feel like a big weight has dropped from my shoulders. Look forward to all the post-analysis here. What will Dennis, Milne, Bolt, Akerman etc have to say???
Ok everyone – last night had to be a rogue poll right??
Did labor win?
Hehe
Good luck to you labor supporters – and all you australians under labor
feeling abit hazey today…but I suppose you also mean that it will be interesting to see how far the Libs go with trying to block the IR rollback that KR will no doubt claim a big mandate for – then interesting to see if they can stitch that opposition together.
Ding dong the witch is dead!
QLD’ers were waiting. We’re a harsh bunch when we want to be.
Good morning all. How good was that night????
Nick Minchin on the ABC last night was already saying that the Labor didnt necessarily have a mandate to roll back Workchoices… and that he couldn’t guarantee that the Libs would pass it. If that’s any sign of what’s to come, things could get interesting. Nick X and the Greens could be in a powerful position. But then again what does Fielding have to gain by helping the Lib’s to block?
If the Senate screws Rudd over, there will be a DD election. Only question might be how far into the piece?
My prediction of a 53.4% 2PP is looking good at the moment as this is the exact figure quoted on the ABC News special this morning at 8am.
My seat prediction was 83. Haven’t got a clue how that’s going.
I lost my $10 on Mike Bailey, and my $20 on Peter Tilney.
However, I won with my $100 on Maxine at $2.85. So I guess that’s $155 nett winnings, which is nice as yesterday I paid a $145 fine for not voting in a local government council election 8 months ago.
Ka-ching…
Therefore, I’m ten bucks ahead on electoral matters this weekend.
At least I broke even, which is happily more than I can say for the Rodent.
I had $500 on Maxine @ $2.85, and some smaller bets on Page, and the only loser was a wild one, Cowper (ok, Sportingbet’s money, so no harm done)
But frankly, the sheer joy of seeing that lot depart was worth more than money!
Senate sounds like a bit of a worry though, and why such a strong showing for the coalition? The senate voting always seems like the dark arts are involved, and dark deals done, and is all rather opaque. On the one hand, a nice clean sweep in the House, but all that murky stuff ‘upstairs’.
Julie. And you can only imagine the electorate would punish those blocking.
Would the remaining rump have the hubris to block when there is a clear mandate?
YES
And if they do, then we can get rid of the rest of them!
But the balance could be with the greens, nick x and FF. These parties would have nothing to gain by blocking.
The only danger would be if Fielding tries to demand something in return for his vote like banning dancing in public or putting decent coverings on table legs.
The Libs will have nothing to gain by blocking roll back
‘morning all.
It was raining last nite, and this morning it’s sunny.
I got $700 on Maxine @ $3.65 months ago.
Und Glen ist noch nicht aufgestanden.
There is a God.
I cleaned up in Forde and Petrie, optimistic in Bennelong and Dickson, lost in McPherson because that is my local electorate, more of a patriotic bet than reality.
Ave it 07 #25,
Don’t think that we’ll forget your trolling. We won’t – neither side likes trolls.
Overall –
Pity about the Senate figures – I’d hoped for a big swing there, but it didn’t happen.
Posted on the other thread, however wanted to share my ranting with everyone on this new one
I would just like to apologise for my rather intemperate and vindictive post at 1.21am this morning (#787). I rather think it was the copious amounts of Scotch and half dozen beers I had consumed.
I dont believe the Unions are coming back, and I haven’t been a Unionist for decades (although I do work for a membership organisation with 115,000 members, where my co-workers dont find it very funny when I DO refer to us as a Union
). Prime Minister Rudd (oh that sounds good), will keep his promise to work with Australians of all persuasion ad the Unions are only a small part of the overall picture.
One thing I will not apologise for is my attack on the insidious, hatefilled, ideological attack on Australians through the Tories unauthorised and unheralded Workchoices crime. This legistlation, this vindictive, arrogant, extremist legistlation attacked not only current and future generations, but the memory of working Australians who fought and suffered for our basic working conditions.
Bob Hawke is deadset correct that every man and woman in the workforce owes the Union movement a debt for Annual Leave, Sick Leave, LSL, a five day working week, redundancy pay, and other. The basic rights of a decent country that respects and honours its citizens. These right wing extremists and ideologues wanted to strip us of our basic rights and our history.
Well Australians have spoken. Most Australians dont “hate” Unions like Jackie Kelly’s stupid husband. Australians see a Bernie Banton and what the Union movement and Bill Shorten did for him and his cause. That is decency, and that is right.
A couple of thank you’s.
1) Mark Latham.- Just over three years ago I sat watching Howard making his customary gloating victory speech after Latham had gone off the rails. I was mortified. The Labor party was going to be out of power for at least 6 years. What was worse was that the Tories had control of the senate. An unmittigated disaster.
Well hows that for irony. Through Mark Latham and his performance we got the conditions where the arrogant, born to rule, hubris laden government could finally drop their sheeps clothing and inflict on Australian working men and woman the hated Workchoices.
2) John Howard – Mr Howard, you have always been at the forefront of the NSW right uglies. You hounded the wets out of your party in the late 80’s and early 90’s, you attacked the weak in our society, you dog whistled and appealed to the basest of the electorates fears and prejudices and used these prejudices to wedge and divide the nation, you made our country bigoted, xenophobic, insular, and inward looking. And you did all this with the smug reassurance of a man who thinks he is so clever that the people will be fooled forever.
You allowed hubris and your insane extremist right wing views to allow you to believe that you had a mandate to attack the very people that elected you in the first place, the so called “Howard Battlers”. How a politician could be so arrogant to believe that they could get away with this is astounding.
Well Mr Howard your enduring legacy will not be the destructiion of the labour movement. Your legacy will be swept away by the new Labor Govt. Your legacy is now your epithaph.
You will have no victory lap, you will not be known in history as Menzies lite, you will be remembered for plunging our country into fear and for that crime being thrown out of not just office, but parliment alltogether.
I will not thank K-Rudd, Julia Gillard or my local member Nicola Roxon. Your work is in front of you. Time to walk the walk.
A final thank you to William Bowe for this tremendous site, and to all the other bludgers (especially the Keating lovers
) who has made me feel I am in a room full of fellow true believers.
The sun is up – its a new dawn, a new day, and Australia is once again back on an even keel.
End of rant
did someone say something about a narrowing ???
What a great morning. A bit disappointed by the Senate. The DD may be on now.
Want a good laugh? Here’s a snippet of Miranda Devine’s comments from the Wentworth Hotel last night:
Baume’s theory is that Howard has worked himself out of a job. The aspirationals who voted for him in 1996 and remained loyal through four elections “have achieved the great bulk of what they aspired to,” he said.
But then they wanted more, And “if you don’t get three cars in your garage rather than two, you’re p…ed off with someone”.
Dame Leonie Kramer agreed. “Once you start aspiring you never stop,” she said.
Constitutional Monarchist David Flint, another True Believer in the Wentworth ballroom, blamed internal Liberal fighting and media bias for the poor Coalition showing and giving Kevin Rudd “a dream run”.
He also blamed “a member of cabinet” who he would not name who he suspected of having leaked information detrimental to the Liberal cause, first that the Prime Minister had lost the confidence of Cabinet later APEC, and then that Malcolm Turnbull had tried to get him to ratify Kyoto. The Liberal party will be “shaken” for some time,” he said.
….don’t ya just love Dame Leonie’s comment? Oh, they really don’t get it, do they?
And oh yes, all that ‘media’ bias to Rudd!!!!!
The born to rule set always love to blame their inferiors, don’t they? God, it’s so hilarious watching them fall over themselves to bleat how wronged they are!
39 lol – never forget ave it!
but you probably wont hear too much from me going forward……
But for regular insight on uk politics try politicalbetting.com …….
Wonderful day for Australia.
Just don’t get the Senate though – it seems to be bucking the trend of the entire election.
Anyway, I am still hopeful for Richard DN in Victoria, and won’t feel that the election is really decided until the senate vote is finalised.
In the meantime, thanks for making this entire campaign (the one that actually started in Januuary), so much more enjoyable. I have had some great laughs, and the odd moment of irritation (you know who you are Glen), all of which has spiced up an otherwise contrived and boring campaign – apart from Tony Abbott and Jackie Kelly ,who win the for Most Entertaing and Gobsmackingly Stupid Behaviour Award.
William , you are a gem.
The booth I was handing out ‘How to vote’ did not have a Green’s and only had FF for the 1st 4 hours. Same at the Booth I scrutineered. So the Green’s did not help our cause at Hinkler, which was closer than I thought.
I was delighted to see Lord Downer’s margin sliced dramatically. He is going to have to work hard next time (if he doesn’t defect to state politics instead).
this is my post-victory music tip
‘I’m never talking to you again’ by Husker-Du
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AGd53tESmmk
My heart still went out to Latham.
But remember last night’s ancient proverb -
With a Rudd in the hand, do not consider the Latham in the bush.
Consider the dead rodent at your feet.
Does the counting continue today? Can’t find an answer on the AEC site. Might be my bleary eyes though.
“my chains fell off, my heart was free”
As a “union thug”, last night was incredible.
All I need to say.
I still think Kerry Tucker is in with a chance. If the rest of the count and postals and pre-polls have the Liberals under 31% that could bring them under quota on the total count. That and BTLs can make the difference. I think ACT has a fairly high BTL count historically. I expect we’ll have to wait a couple of weeks. I hope Kerry Tucker gets in. That way the Greens can embarrass the ALP into undoing Workchoices. Also make sure they sign Kyoto.
What a classic line from Jim Middleton: “It’s as though John Howard crashed the car, and handed Peter Costello the keys.”
Morning bludgers…oh my head!
How many seats to Labor… oh my head.
Much work to do….
Oh well, tomorrow is another day.
Happy it was a good win for the lower house, disappointed over the Senate and that the extra green seat didn’t get up in the ACT.
Gary Humphries was popular with older age groups, the “grey vote”, from his years in local politics.
The Senate falls on quotas, (I think) and with only 2 Senate seats, they only need to get a third of the vote, which is about what Liberals get in the ACT generally with a rough 60/30 Labor/Liberal split. The green Senate candidate we were hoping would oust the Liberal, actually needed to steal votes from the existing Liberal support base.
There was still around 2% to Labor, but that swing was supposed to go to Greens – such Labor safe seats, didnt need the extra swing.
As for cutting the public service, well thats an age-group thing, and a time-in-service thing, and where-in-service thing. Every change of govt does that, but for those of us older pubes, who have been through such changes, we *know* that the Coalition are far more vicious and politicised and scary than Labor.
Labor only get rid of the dead wood of the ‘old guard’ (some of whom have already cut-and-run in these last weeks anyway).
many older pubes, in line policy portfolio agencies (not the administrative ones), have been waiting a long time to actually start doing *real* work again – ie start working on sensible policies, programs etc in health, education, transport, communications etc – to rebuild neglected and deteriorated infrastructure and services.
Younger age-groups, with less service time, knowing no different, are terrified. They’ll learn in time, it aint so scary
The rest of the Labor support in the ACT, I think comes from the rather large and growing private sector. Coalition govts tend to really punish the city and its micro-economy. Some of us who lived through the smashing of the city’s microeconomy in 96-98 remember!. Howard’s refusal to live in the Lodge, is just an outward ‘F*ck You’ symbol of that, and it got worse when we shifted to a Labor ACT govt. Local businesses, even major companies with their head offices located here have been pissed off.
Hey William, our 87 seats isn’t looking all that shabby at the moment.
Forde is interesting. I said a couple of days ago that it may be a possible ALP gain, given that it was a three-cornered contest, with both the ALP and Nationals running candidates. With a candidate having the aesthetic appeal of the National’s Hajnal Ban (http://www.hajnalban.com.au/), surely some votes would have gone her way. Anyone know whether this split the conservative vote and delivered the ALP victory?
I didn’t place any monetary bets (more fool me), but I still have something to collect on:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/507?cp=all
42
Just Me Says:
July 14th, 2007 at 3:30 am
Steven Kaye Says:
“Simply put, a booming economy combined with a popular PM will see the Government re-elected. Mark my words, kiddies.”
Bookmarked for future reference. Question is, if your bold prediction is wrong, do you have sufficient humility and decency to turn up here and face psephological reckoning?
Well, do you?
128
Steven Kaye Says:
July 15th, 2007 at 2:19 am
Just Me asked of me the following: “Question is, if your bold prediction is wrong, do you have sufficient humility and decency to turn up here and face psephological reckoning?
Well, do you?”
Of course I do. Do you?
Hello? Steven? Where are you?
Yeah, petty and immature of me, I know.
But damn it feels good.
••••••••••••••••••••
37
Geepee Says:
I got $700 on Maxine @ $3.65 months ago.
Now that’s a nice bonus. Spend it wisely. Or don’t.
disasterboy: the problem with the large proportion of BTLs in the ACT is they’re not going to do the Greens any good at all; since Humphries won’t get a brass razoo above the line, anything below the line that gets to him is a lost vote for the Greens. So Humphries would need to drop not just fractionally below a quota, but significantly below it, to lose. Although I predicted Humphries to win despite the widespread belief he would go, I am still not calling ACT Senate – the Greens improved their position in Tasmania on postal votes in 2004 and I do not assume that it cannot happen again.
Jen #45 – the Senate isn’t bucking the trend. It’s just that 53-47 is enough of a majority to win lots of lower house seats, but in reality it’s not that different from 50-50. 53-47 always divides the seats 3-3.
I just read one of Grattan’s articles
Michelle Grattan
And if Costello does take the leadership he’s going to have a very big problem: Namely that he can no longer call on Treasury – he needs to do the work himself.
59
Kevin Bonham
What you say makes sense to me, except for Liberal BTLs that start with their lower candidate(s) in the group. I don’t expect many of them, so they don’t really count.
disasterboy: Unfortunately, Humphries is back. He’s already got the necessary quota.
I have to say that I’m a bit bemused by these results. The Greens actually did really well in the ACT, lifting their primary vote quite substantially (pretty much a best-case scenario IMHO), and in line with the Senate polls that had Tucker winning. What I didn’t see coming is the surprisingly low Labor vote – Kate Lundy’s only polled about the same as in 2004, and Humphries hasn’t dropped much. I’d have expected that to be much higher, thus taking down Humphries’ primaries and passing surplus preferences onto the Greens, but it didn’t eventuate.
My guess at this point would be that the pledge to slash the public service might be the cause, because I simply can’t see any reason why the swing to Labor was lower than anywhere else in the country at a time when the Liberals are badly on the nose here.
Actually, the Coalition didn’t do particularly well in the senate this time around – they got three seats fewer than Labor+Greens.
The problem is that they did spectacularly well in the senate last election, so the six-yearly elections are going to leave us with a Howard/Latham legacy in the Senate for another three years.
The Greens can’t ever hold the BOP the way the Democrats used to – in the Senate they are effectively to Labor what the Nationals are to the Coalition, since most people who vote Green would otherwise vote Labor. So in a 50:50 TPP election I would expect equal numbers in the senate for Green+Labor and Liberal+National+possible FF/CDP/other right-wing minors.
The end of the Democrats in this election was entirely expected but still entirely depressing.
William Bowe
Did you get the greenie?
If you run short, you know my addy.
Great site and I thank all that contribute.
To help clear the hangover. A little bit of analysis on average swing in different types of seats
Seat Average Swing (%)
Safe ALP seats (>5%) 4.7
Marginal ALP (<5%) 4.9
Marginal Lib (Tier I) (<5%) 5.3
Marginal Lib (Tier II) (10%) 5.1
There might be a more pronouced effect if you control for state effects. But, on there numbes there is not a lot of evidence that the swings were different in the marginals.
mmm tables don’t post so well. I’ll try again
Safe ALP seats (>5%) ——– 4.7
Marginal ALP (<5%) ———–4.9
Marginal Lib (Tier I) (<5%)—–5.3
Marginal Lib (Tier II) (10%) ———— 5.1
Still not right
Safe ALP ——- 4.7
Marginal ALP — 4.9
Tier I Lib/Nat—-5.3
Tier II Lib/Nat—6.2
Safe Lib/Nat —5.1
i’m waiting for the ‘jilted lover’ to come on at 9am (here in sunny Griffith!)
So which state government will be the first to fall?
So John Hewson got it right after all: Howard has to be carried out of Kirribili House in a CAGE
Good riddance! I might as well throw in a walking stick for him as a departure gift.
Good riddance, indeed
the one with a state liberal exec that can get its act together.
disasterboy: yep, those that are BTL for the other Liberal candidate can indeed leak against Humphries. However, she probably won’t have more than 1000 votes and he would be unlucky to lose anything over 100 or so out of that.
If he drops below a quota as postals are included I’ll rig up a BTL calculator spreadsheet (as I did with Milne vs Petrusma for Tassie in 2004) to follow roughly what proportion of the other BTLs he needs to get elected. I don’t expect that this will happen, but who knows?
Rebecca: Humphries only has a provisional quota based on the votes counted so far. As more votes go in, the quota rises, so if, once prepolls and postals are added, his percentage of the vote drops, he can still slip below a quota (and, in theory, lose if he goes down far enough).
Another pretty disappointing Senate result for the Greens the way things are looking at the moment. I cautioned that they would not get the swag some were predicting, but I expected four or five and it looks like they only won three.
Does anybody know what this means:
The national two-party preferred swing to Labor of 6.3per cent was the second-largest since World War II, bettered only by Gough Whitlam in 1975. Labor looked certain to secure 86 of the 150 House of Representative seats and hoped for 90 – a gain of at least 30 seats.
It’s from here
Surely she means AGAINST whitlam. Ye Gods.
Interesting figures Albert F.
So with a TPP of 53.4 (as just reported on Insiders), this is the largest Labor TPP in history. I was informed that the swing under Fraser was larger – but does this mean that this majority is now “swing-proof” through the next election? Has there been enough of a movement of the pendulum to keep it on the Left-of-Centre for six years?
And, do we know how many Labor seats are owed to Greens preferences?
Ha! where’s paul kelly…. not on insiders…. hahaha.
Geez, Andrew Bolt has been on the road to Damascus, he made a lot of sense this morning.
Poor old Dolly, he is on his way to resigning, that much was obvious from his responses this morning, oh well, back to the family pile, bloody good riddance too!
Loks like Maxine has secured Bennelong inlatest counting http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-13745-105.htm move by 1% on 2PP overnight
Where does this result leave Gerard Henderson who was not prepared to put forward a prediction, except that no one would take any noticed of the polls in future. I think the polls have done well?
Tears of joy rolled down my face last night (couldn’t help hit) @ Suncorp. It doesn’t get any better than this. Kjin with respect to Wayne Goss I shook hands with him last night & told him “I got share’s in Ausenco & I love it” – he laughed. He’s on the board.
For those who don’t know Ausenco is a engineering based in Brisbane that has up to $10 billion of current & future work set for the next 5 years world wide. I bought in the day after it listed in May 2006 – ($1) next day $1.47. On Monday 19th it reached a high of $16.11. Its gone down since then on share market trend but its been a solid above average performer & just powers onwards & upwards.
The evil dwarf is DEAD & so is his government. To day is a beautiful day & I can rest. Thank you all.
OH GEEUZZ I was wanting to go to 53.4 but thought Id stick with 53.7!!
We’re now in uncharted waters, watching Howard concede last night I couldn’t believe it was happening.
aussieguru01. oh what a night! brilliant.
So how about the purportedly “Christian” microparties!
CDP & FF both lost Senate votes.
Bucking the trend:
Family First 0.59% increased +0.03% in NSW. CDP lost more than that, there.
Family First 2.61% increased +0.73% in Vic: benefits of Steve Fielding?
Christian Democrats ran in Queensland (not having ran there last time). FF lost more than CDP’s 0.24%
Christian Democrats ran in SA, as in Queensland FF lost more than CDP’s 0.14%
In the HoR CDP picked up slightly. I have not checked but they may have just run more candidates than last time. FF drop by even less than CDP picked up.
FF did (from a dodgy count on my part) get over 4% in the HoR in 17 seats. Thats more money than getting just over 4% in the Senate in WA. Not bad for a net drop in vote.
On a separate note.
I expect Adam Carr will analyse the Australian Democrats vote in absorbing detail
A little confused guys – is Maxne in? When will we know for sure? When can we open the bottle of bubbles?
A bigger swing than 96 and almost identical TPP. Perhaps there were some baseball bats out there after all …
just a little clarity pls
79, razz, I am getting more optimistic about my $100 on maxine as the day goes on, nice margin now.
Morning bludgers. Nursing a monster hangover. Some observartions (apologies if they were made on last night’s threads.)
1. The myth of the marginal seat campaigning needs to be put to rest for all time. Like I tried to explain to the nervous nellies – and weren’t there a few of those after Galaxy and newspoll? – if you get 52%, you win big.
2. Maxine McKew is a star. Whoever had the idea to put her in Bennelong is a genius.
3. Big, big thanks to Jackie Kelly. Her “it was just like a chaser stunt” interview cost the PM his seat. Congratulations Jackie. You’ve made history.
4. Tony Jones is a c*nt. He should be strung up by his thumbs.
Paul Kelly gave great commentary on insiders
Spiro
Why tony Jones???
Ditto Gerr… this election has been a fine result for Australians and goes a fair way to restoring my faith in the public after ‘04.
The absolute rejection of John Howard, with him looking likely to lose his own seat is a rejection of the race-based politics he has employed since his successful Tampa ‘01 election. We can thank Jackie Kelly for something at least…
I look forward to analysis from right-wing pundits of where it all went wrong for them…
Spiros. what prompted point 4?
gerr. he hasn’t shown up the QLD version yet. Jim Middleton did the opening overview.
Saw a post earlier saying that our government would now be cold-shouldered by the Village Idiot. Oh good, does that mean that they wont expect any more of our young men and women to go and die in their filthy greed driven wars of opportunism. BTW, if the Democrats ever get any balls, they will impeach the Idiot and the Prince of Darkness Cheney anyway soon.
If costello was leader the loss would probaly have been greater, however this is a great victory for all Australians and the direction of Australia has now been altered for the better, it will take time for the new Government to bring about changes, however it is important that the LNP extreme policy direction has now come to a screeching halt with the new ALP Government able to now steer the country in a new direction.
We will still have to live and reap what JWH has sowed but at least his sowing has come to an end and Rudd can now start sowing new seeds to alter the future of Australia.
WB:
Thankyou for the this site, it is credit to you, I appreciate all your hard work that has made this site a great success.
Sarah, Bennelong has moved overnight. Now up to 5.97% swing – should be enough to do it, 51.84 of the vote. Moneys will be paid out with the declaration from the AEC of the winner – don’t know when that will happen.
Can’t really think of anythng much to say……
a) You better believe it.
b) This is one for the non-believers.
c) We’re back
d) All of the above.
And I hope we’re charging market rates for Kirribillie House from this morning. Like to see the Rattus family at Centrelink looking for emergency rental assistance on Monday morning, ‘What do you mean my $100K+ pension disqualifies me!’
Bolt on Insiders was very interesting. He was making a case for Turnbull to be Op. leader and couched it in the need for the Libs to get back to their small L liberal progressive background. If he thought that was so important then why didn’t he (and the Lib progressives) speak out on Hansonism, Tampa, Siev X, Rau etc. They might be getting their epiphany now but it’s a bit late for the party.
Really? Middleman? Ok, I came in late, is downer being interviewd?
Thanx Chino just wasnt sure how long until we knew about Max for sure – great win last night (musta been our outfits that did it!)
Gerr. he’s on right now.
Swan has also pulled back for Labor and they are now leading.
It’s quite possible WA may break even for the ALP (on seats).
best insiders for a long time today – Bolt looking objectively and having a real debate of ideas with Mega and Lenore. Talking Pictures great as well – the accuracy of the cartoonists is in no doubt!
Oh so we are going to be given the cold shoulder by George W?
There’s a downside?
Im suprised W is still there (in body anyway)
dolly is really deflated. reckons they only lost cause people just wanted a change, like they dont think any deeper. in denial.
Gee I wish Id taped Insiders and Sunday this morning.
Are they repeated? Are they on net?
not for long now for the village idiot
insiders is on ABC radio [news radio] at 11
So which Poll was Closest? Morgan?
Thanks Chino
chino, I think we have about a fortnight before the AEC declares.
I generally can’t stand talking pictures, but this morning’s had one particularly hilarious moment:
Mike Bowers: Bill, what will you miss about drawing John Howard?
Bill Leak: (pauses) Nothing
113
Dan Says:
November 25th, 2007 at 10:23 am
I generally can’t stand talking pictures, but this morning’s had one particularly hilarious moment:
Mike Bowers: Bill, what will you miss about drawing John Howard?
Bill Leak: (pauses) Nothing
I was ROFL!!!
Basil Fawlty – that is going to be an excruciating wait for those of us with some roubles riding on it……….
middle man 93
when he asked Nicole Cornes and asked her whether she was relieved that she didn’t win.
Sub text: “admit you’re a bimbo who would have been out your depth as a member of parliament”.
73
Kevin Bonham Says:
Thanks, I’ll keep checking the ACT count. But I am travelling at the mo’.
I don’t think the vote is that disappointing for The Greens, theres been a enough elections now, where pollsters Upperhouse figures have overstated the Greens vote. (I remember a time when they understated them or ignored them, but hey) Its still growing steadily. Still might get 4 Senators this round.
Who knows when the button gets pressed, possible that they get none. I hope they get Parliamentary Party status.
I hope there is no DD.
Dan. i cant wait to get to that bit! hour behind up here.
William can we have a why is it so speculation thread.
Just to throw the jas amoungst the wolves I am going to suggest that the ‘Mad Mark’ theorem, including the handshake from hell, so popular with fans of the former Govt is almost worthless and cannot explain the result in 2004.
Which leaves us with interest rates.
And I’ll be more troublesome by suggesting Workchoices should, in hindsight, be put significantly behind ‘cost of living’ factors.
Insiders is available online here, may have to wait for this weeks for a bit.
http://www.abc.net.au/insiders/
That was really awful of Jones, I think. What did he expect her to say “oh yes, now I can just go shopping”.
spiros. fair call then. putting yourself up for office is gutsy no matter who you are. what a turd.
Yes Gerr, on current count Morgan was extremely close on the 2PP. It appears that they were also closest on the primaries of both parties.
ACN was furthest on all counts.
except I think they may have got closest to the Coalition primaries now that I think of it.
Yeah spiros, I like Tony Jones but I thought he was pretty annoying during that Nicole interview, patronising in extremis. However, I thought she handled it very well, quite dignified.
I have to agree with Spiros at 89 re Tony Jones. Thought his interview with Nicole Cornes was utterly patronising rubbish. The way she handled it was, in my opinion fantastic though, and if she’d given a performance like that at the start of the campaign I doubt we would have heard so much crap spouted about her (such as the blind commuter story).
Agree about Tony Jones’ questioning of Cornes. My wife almost jumped through the TV and ripped his head off. I got screamed at just for being male. The phrase “sexist and patronising” was mentioned at very high volume!!
Oh how I enjoyed seeing the faces of the born to rule mob at the Rodent sendoff at the Wentworth, priceless. And never again will i have to listen to his annoying voice, or see the hideous ratwalks.
exactly
Basil. what about the howls of “nooooo” when he said he might not win Bennelong. hilarious. so pained!
God, they are so pathetic, see how they cope with 12 years in opposition, can I buy shares in a cyanide factory?
As a Bennelong ALP supporter, that made me smile. Only postal vote to be counted now and Maxine looks pretty certain for a win.
Calloo Callay, o frabjous day!
Maxine and Kevin have delivered. The nasty small-minded amoral twerp is gone! Now we can get on with being a proper country, of generous, understanding and just plain pleasant people, again. The relief is palpable, the world looks bright and new.
The Libs have lost Mal Brough and gained Alex Hawke; nothing could illustrate the depths of their ongoing problem more starkly.
Thankyou William for allowing me to be part of the adventure for the past several months.
Cheers to all, even poor sad Glen, and pompous deluded EStJ.
Alan H
Paul Kelly has shown his noggin. Stating this is the largest Labor victory. Victory… hmmm… that sounds good!
I actually thought Mr Bolt made some very good points this morning. Made a whole lot of sense… and was glad to see George raise the heckling at the NPC earlier this week which was disgraceful.
I haven’t had as much pleasure watching Insiders in ages.
Can I just say thig – HOW GOOD DOES IT FEEL TO WIN???
Cant wait to see/hear piers and the dwarf’s take on all this. Hahaaahaa ha!
Alan, we have to admire Glen, he at least had the bottle to cop the abuse levelled at him, and ESJ for that matter. more bottle than some of the so called leaders anyway.
I had an insurance bet of $100 at 3.05 on the Liberals placed about three months ago. Decided two weeks ago that I Labor was home and hosed so I covered it (and some more) with $400 on Labor at $1.35.
Also had/have $300 (including Sportingbet free $100) on Maxine at $2.85.
Milne was on Sky News Agenda this morning – he pretty much said that the Libs made a fatal mistake by not handing over to Costello earlier. Not particularly surprising…
Amusing that Pyne is “not ruling out” a tilt at the Deputy Leader position. His lead over Handshin currently stands at 79 votes; perhaps he wants to go out like a real leader at the next election?
I also gather that Matt Price may be on the mend, does anyone here have any information, really miss Matt, and of course George Mega has emerged from this whole saga standing even higher in my estimation.
Is that so Pyne can spend even more time away from home
Wink wink nod
Basil, I’ve heard that his tumours are in fact malignant unfortunately. Best wishes of course.
Swing – did Milne have msgs of the long term opposition prospects for Costello along the same lines as the bolter or was he just playing the blame game?
Hi guys
We need to wait until counting starts again, does anyone know when that is?
Well. A shock. Not the result, per se, but the magnitude of the swing and the influence in Queensland. Not a lot of polling was indicating this level of swing and outside Brisbane too.
Senate
Well, I am quietly chomping on an old straw hat here as Jeff Buchanan is shell-shocked about not securing a senate seat for FFP. However, the fact that we have a two-party split in NSW, QLD and VIC just shows that this election was a two horse race, very presidential, and that the minor parties suffered:
Dems: Gorn. No surprises.
FFP: Some minor gains in 2 states but drops elsewhere. About .3% down Nationally
Greens: up .6% on last count. However, this should be construed as a poor result. Climate Change has rated the third most important issue in this campaign and the Greens harvested a sizeable chunk of the Dems. If this is subtracted from the Greens total, then there is a slight net loss to the Greens as the majors have some CC platforms now.
ONP: Dead.
Pauline: Alive and squirming but off her 2004 total.
The big factor, however, is Xenophon and Steve Fielding with the Senate balance of power. This will be a powerful filter and, if as Gillard claims, the ALP won’t negotiate on IR, then could trigger a DD. This would then entirely be a minor party election. No one would want Labor with such an overwhelming HOR majority and a senate majority and no one wants to see a coalition dominated senate blocking supply.
I heard that they dont count on Sundays…….
Ball, 2010 I think
Sarah,
Milne wasn’t as negative as Bolt about the long term Coalition prospects. But he did say now it is time for the Liberals to assess whether they need Costello atm, as he may be perceived as being too connected to the Howard era.
I guess we’re going to have to wait a few days before we get any hard hitting insights of the future directions of the Liberal party. At this stage, though, it still looks likely that Costello will be elected leader.
Electing Costello leader will be the worst thing they can do. He’s associated with the past, with Howard, with WorkChoices. They would be far smarter to look to Turnball for a completely new direction.
Shouldn’t there be a “Photo Finish: Sturt” thread?
I’d support a Downer/Pyne ticket leadership ticket
meltown in the chijoff house
“Mrs Chijoff’s husband, Greg, has quit the Liberal Party in disgrace and his wife does not seem to know what has happened to him. “I haven’t spoken to him today and I don’t know where he is,” she said before being driven away.”
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/from-jesters-to-brides-we-have-our-say/2007/11/24/1195753371193.html
Who in the coalition could we award the “Comical Ali” award too, as in “what american tanks, I cant see any american tanks here”.
KT. i didnt think that sort of ‘ticket’ was lawful in this country yet.
Swing – elected leader to an imploding party I think. If Turnbull is smart, he will let Costello shovel the shit for a while and contest after Costello looses at the next election. Hard for the libs with the amazing fresh talent elected into the ALP and so, so exciting for us!
I woke this morning, so excited about the future, opportunities and the possibility that I could be proud of the country I was born in…
KT, tee hee
150
Basil Fawlty Says:
November 25th, 2007 at 10:45 am
Ball, 2010 I think
I meant when does the counting for the new senate start, because it hasn’t finished yet.
I think they start tomorrow.
Sarah, my estimate is for 12 weeks at the most before a spill.
I wonder if now the media in this country will start weaning themselves off the pollsters, none of whom covered themselves with glory this year. Remember all those polls that got you Lefties all orgasmic, the ones with Labor’s primary vote in the high 40s or low 50s? So what did it turn out to be?
43.5%.
Pretty paltry, actually, for an allegedly fresh new leader allegedly sweeping aside an allegedly tired old regime. I’d advise Labor not to get too carried away.
Meanwhile, John Howard was up and about today on his usual morning walk. And he can leave politics with his held high, as the second-longest serving and best PM, and having left Australia in immeasurably better shape than in 1996. He can now enjoy retired life as a new grandfather, soothed of course by the millions his political career has earned him.
Lets just hope this puke-inducing moral and intellectual slug Krudd and his band of retards and criminals don’t stuff things up too badly.
Bennelong in the bag for Maxine. About 5,000 postal votes to count. Howard needs 2,700 more votes than Maxine or about 75-80% of all postal votes which looks to be impossible.
Howard emerges for morning walk
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2007/11/25/1195925651995.html
I can’t wait for Mr Howard to have the traditional handing over of the keys to The Lodge.
I want to thank Jackie Kelly and friends for acting true to type. What happened in Lindsay gives future historians a hook to analyse the divisive thrust of Howard’s tenure. His dog whistle politics will not be forgotten
Chino – Downer was starting to split at the seams a little this morning and I am sure it hasn’t even started to sink in. Someone who is talented enough to fit two feet in their mouths (Abbot?) might even give us some pearls of soundbites before the weeks end (methinks)
Wooohooooo! Last night was fun. Can’t remember how many times I said “f#*k off Howard” to my TV screen.
Now who were the doubting Thomases who warned against reading too much in to the exit poll yesterday?
Another disappointing night for the greens, again they have spent the entire election campaign predicting great things, only to fall dramatically short, if they didn’t talk themselves up so much (or rather if Bob Brown didnt) this could be considered a good night for them!
Steven Kaye, The Liberal Party recorded their lowest 2PP in history.
Mr Howard lost his seat, the second sitting PM in history to do so.
This election loss is worse than the loss in ‘04 for Mr Latham.
In that respect Australia has rejected Howard moreso than they did Latham.
Swing Lowe, Milne doesn’t ‘get it’ either. Costello is not popular, was not popular, and never will be popular, even more so now that the ship has hit the iceberg and all but a few were saved.
To try and claim captain’s rights after standing on the bridge through that disaster is not going to be seen as ‘new leadership’ (hmm, that’s a nice sounding slogan, maybe they should try it).
Maybe for the immediate period while they’re still in shell shock, but as they recover what senses they have left, Costello will be seen as political baggage. All this huff and puff about his great experience, blah blah, will count for nothing when they realise he is also a corpse, and the stinking remains will be unceremoniously dumped.
Thought Tony Jones on the ABC was quite boorish to all the losing candidates. He seemed to be equally rude to both sides, but surpassed himself when speaking to Cornes attempting “gotcha” questions ad nauseum.
The main ABC panel of Green, O’Brien, Gillard and Minchin were excellent. Minchin’s professionalism and grace under fire was remarkable.
Senate overall votes for major condenders..
Australian Labor Party 3,993,501 40.74% +5.72%
Liberal/Nationals 2,954,642 30.14% -4.09%
Liberal 867,252 8.85% -1.55% (the AEC have these seperated for some reason)
The Greens 884,252 9.02% +1.35%
Democrats 124,175 1.27% -0.82%
Family First 162,773 1.66% -0.10%
CDP Christian Party 92,198 0.94% -0.24%
DLP – Democratic Labor Party 86,732 0.88% +0.39%
Pauline 107,217 1.09% +1.09%
Independants (mostly to Nick Xenaphon) 152,789 1.56% +0.05%
Look at moiy Steven Kaye, look at moiy ! I have one thing to say to you Steven Kaye—————BULL BUTTER !!!
SK. So gracious. Mate more concerning for the Libs is the joint primary vote of Labor and the Greens. Thats not a shift to the centre or the right.
Suffer in your jocks cry baby.
where are you guys geting your updates on Swan?
Ladies and gentlemen, let me present Steven Kaye, the sore loser!
Steven, you’re exactly the kind of reason why the Liberals lost. I hope the new Liberal party moulds itself around people like you, because it will ensure they remain in opposition for years to come.
Turnball-Minchin team would be the only chance for the Libs to rebuild. Costello has become a liability to the party and will never be PM.
161
John Howard has left in a disgrace, being the 2nd prime minister ever to lose his own seat. And where did these polls say there was going to be a 50% primary for labor?
After volunteering for Darren Cheeseman in Corangamite over the last 3 months, I have to say that I am extremely happy, and still a little incredulous, that we managed to achieve a 7.23% swing to Labor (with the help of Green’s preferences).
This result in Corangamite, and also in Deakin in fantastic in terms of outdoing the state-wide swing. I am so proud of all of the people who have worked to achieve such a fantastic result here in Victoria, and I look forward to hearing our new MP’s maiden speeches on News Radio.
I say union, you say…
ABC Insiders is being re-broadcast on ABC NewsRadio now.
BBD, you can get updates on Swan at the AEC website.
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-13745-247.htm
159, my response was said firmly tongue in cheek, sorry for any confusion.
Aaah. Dolly admits that he has been lying to the public all year about the coalition’s reelection prospects and doesn’t know if he’ll serve out his full term. Add one more to the ALP majority when that happens.
I don’t usually make comments to the various trolls that appear here, as their cretinous remarks speak for themselves, but Steven Kaye, for you I will make one exception.
The overwhelming majority of Australians have voted out John Howard and his government with an historic victory to Labor and Kevin Rudd.
You, on the other hand, have been nothing but wrong on all counts, and as a personal observation, a nasty little toe-rag as well.
He he SK….u ain’t seen nothing yet, cos now we’re in, we’re gunna change EVERYTHING!!!!!
Uh, Steven Kaye. Got anything to say, re #58?
Just Me
The worst thing was Downer saying a State Parliament would be below him.
would it comfort Steven to know that they not only lost government they lost a refferendum on the role of unions in the workplace and in politics PLUS a referendum on wall-to-wall Labor.
In case any libs want to suggest otherwise I have 10km of bunting that says that was what the vote was about and it has Lib/Nat authorisation all over it.
I may have to say this more than once. I eat my own words. I was wrong and I accept that. I didn’t expect QLD to swing, the other yes but not QLD. So how many people are still going to be around now that the election is over?
I’m a Sydneysider, and know nothing about Nick Xenophon. Can someone tell me how likely he is to vote with the Libs in the Senate? Does anyone have a sense of whether he’s pro or anti-Workchoices? Is he is a rightwing religious wingnut, or what?
The bloodletting that will inevitably occur in the next few weeks is going to be particularly engrossing. I might not even be too disappointed to see the rodent win in Bennelong just so he can hang around for three years to watch the party he led implode. Watching Downer on Insiders this morning was VERY FUNNY. Bolt was right when he said Downer just didn’t get it. The way the Libs allowed standards of public administration to lapse over the last 11 years just proves they had no idea how to govern. The Australian people trusted Howard with the economy but they have spoken loudly and clearly that the economy is not everything. They expect much more integrity from their politicians. We are all winners out of this process whether we appreciate it or not.
I’ve got some brickbats and bouquets for the campaign.
Brickbats-
Overington complete disgrace to her profession. Might have to feel sorry for her as I suspect she is not well though.
Shamaham-Senator Ray said it all last night when he asked viewers to compose a 500 word Shama article on the Great Howard Victory
Sol Lebovic- Contorted himself up his own a*sehole trying to explain how the “preferred economic manager” could lose the poll. Unable to understand that there is more to life than greed.
Bouquets-
The people labelled “so-called experts” by the MSM, ie Possum, Lambert, William, Jackman etc. In the face of vitriol from the MSM and sometimes from Labor pessimists they proved that reason will always beat emotion and spin.
All the bludgers who kept putting their money on Maxine.
Why are you guys giving SK the honour of responding to him, he is an irrelevance.
‘I thought we would lose’: Downer
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/25/2100474.htm
Mr Kaye.
For a lesson in how to lose graciously, see Stephen @ 188.
Thank you Stephen.
192
Basil Fawlty
Cause it is fun.
Betamax Says:
November 25th, 2007 at 11:04 am
I’m a Sydneysider, and know nothing about Nick Xenophon. Can someone tell me how likely he is to vote with the Libs in the Senate? Does anyone have a sense of whether he’s pro or anti-Workchoices? Is he is a rightwing religious wingnut, or what?
Hes a more labor guy. He’ll go with labor on workchoices etc.
Betamax, he will be moderate on industrial relations and will likely fall somewhere between Labor and the Coalition.
However he will most likely support the ALP, with some sort of token amendments for ’small business’ that he can do media releases on.
Insiders repeats on ABC Newsradio at 11:00am Sydney time. It’s AM630 in Sydney
Having been involved as a volunteer with the Sturt campaign, its hard not to get caught up thinking about what might have been with a few more votes.
So close …..
I could well be wrong here, but I suspect if Pyne keeps on pushing for leadership opportunities, details of his personal indescretions may well be leaked by the Right. Now that they have lost government, I’d have thought all discipline within the party will be put aside for a time, & those who are not liked or are a threat will be eliminated.
Xenophon is anti-WorkChoices. He is pretty centrist over all, he deals with each issue as it comes.
Steven Kaye,
nice point.
Just remember, when you walk down the street, the majority of the people are dumb enough to not think what you think.
Good luck with that, it’s not easy.
Has anyone seen the Great Possum’s GIANT KILLER Howardista 5000
ROFL
http://possumcomitatus.files.wordpress.com/2007/11/the-howardista5000.jpg
Triffid. what sort of indescretions?
Steven K, I strongly suggest you seek counselling. John Howard, and his nasty, small minded, divisive claque have been utterly rejected. That includes you. Please take you bilious spew, and rank flatus elsewhere.
cheers,
Alan H
middle man… if you trawl through Andrew Landeryou’s blog you will probably find something of interest.
I think it’s above us all here to rehash gossip and innuendo.
Yay, won some good money there. I had $1200 about a month ago, but chickened out when the polls started picking up a smaller swing in NSW. Will still pick up about $450 on her though. Thanks Max!!! An official labor legend.
La Trobe falls:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22818152-29277,00.html
The real challenge now is for the Liberals to reinvent as a true Liberal, or even as a true Conservative party. They have allowed the infiltration of ratbag neo-cons, religious wingnuts and other assorted fascist baggage. They have now paid the price. We do indeed live in interesting times.
We probably need a bennelong thread…
One item of note, Yusuf Tahir – the unknown out-of-towner who did little more than put his name on the ballot paper – has so far polled 60% more votes than the Citizens Electoral Council (79 to 49) in bennelong. You have to wonder why CEC bother wasting their time and money. They’d be better off electorally not being a party.
Triffid and Basil – pls spell out what Pyne is up to?
Sarah,
Some sexual indiscretions that have never been proven and so shouldn’t be repeated on this site…
What a mean-minded vindictive poor loser Steven K is.
But then, he’s a Lib.
What would you expect?
79 votes in Sturt now!!!
Libs will never win with Cossie and they know it. It’s only a atter of time before they reinvent themselves behind Turnbull. And what do we call them not that tey’re not Team Rodent? Team Smirk doesnt work, coz there aint much smirking now.
Bolt is amazingly rational on Insiders.
Swing – comprehendo. Mucho gracias.
Mmmmmm…….waking up….too much sparkling shiraz…..memories of lots of people….orange balloons….hugging. What was it? Oh riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight. WE WON!!! No we didn’t win, WE THRASHED THEM!
And this morning, as bright sunshine washes over my beautiful city, my beautiful country, I feel I can stall tall again. Our chance now to move forward with compassion and regard for all our fellow citizens – and those who wish to be.
Now, about that poll.
The Tories are in complete denial. Dolly looked like he wish he had accepted that Jim Jones Kool-aid drink offered to him last night after all. They just don’t get it, and until they do get it the ‘coalition of swill’ will languish in the wilderness – which, I must admit, is not such a bad thought.
Eleven months ago, I put $3,000 on Rudd to win when the ALP was at $2.55. I was encouraged to do this by Steven Kaye and Nostradamus. I would just like to take this opportunity to thank them both for their encouragement and their personal venom.
“The Australian people will never vote John Howard out of office. never.”
How sweet it is, Steven.
And, to cap off a beautiful result, the future of the Liberal Party belongs to Uglies like Alex Hawke and Steven himself.
I think the expression “hoo hah” pretty well sums it up.
Pyne losing would be the second layer of icing on an already well iced cake.
It’s funny isn’t it. Howard talked about how good the liberal party has been to him, but what did he do to it?
His greed and lust for power has left it decimated, a total trainwreck.
Who do they have to lead them… Costello? He is already essentially a already a PM election loser.
Turnballs might be their best hope, but geez, if that’s the best they got they are in trouble.
All in all though, they will be in the wilderness for the next 3 years, and I suspect many more.
A fitting outcome for a mean spirited, ruthless party. I noticed on insiders they mentioned the mean spirit of the Liberals (ie heckling female reporters at the press club), and it’s so good that that kind of nastiness got the boot.
On the flip side, hope Kev now gets on with the job of fixing this country. I must say its like their is a new vibe to the place, and I like it a lot!
Nice little bundle there, Snakeboy. Enjoy it.
Geepee #212,
I’ve run online into a number of LP’ers who have been courteous in defeat. The best, in my opinion, of conservatism – true courtesy to all, combined with a genuine (if somewhat paternalistic) caring for the electorate.
I hope that the LP can change to represent more people like these, and less like Alex Hawke, Stephen Kaye and other rabid neo-conservatives.
Hey Billy
Hope things a well for ya.
There’s something going on she said I can feel it in the air.
As per the election- meh.
Your friend, Tom – Melbourne
Tabitha needs to show up for one last couplet.
#177 –
“And where did these polls say there was going to be a 50% primary for labor?”
Just taking Newspoll as an example, they had 21 polls this year that had Labor’s primary vote at 47% or above, and 6 of them had them at 50% or above. There were plenty of Nielsens and Morgan that recorded similar results.
I repeat, there’s something drastically wrong with the methodology of these polls when they result in such an inflated Labor vote.
#194 –
“For a lesson in how to lose graciously, see Stephen @ 188.”
Lose graciously, when the result is such a contemptible act of national cretinism? Not on your life!
222, yes I was so impressed by Mal Brough last night, gracious and good humoured in very distressing circumstances for him, top marks.
What I want to see now is inquiries into things like:
Iraq
David Hicks
AWB
Haneef
Deportation of Aussies
Tampa affair
Regional infrastructure corruption
etc etc
The LNP may have lost, but they have many questions to answer, and now that they have been dislodged from power perhaps the truth can come out.
Congradulation to the Australian Labor Party
A great victory for all of its supporters
Our best years are ahead of us
The Australian people are ALWAYS RIGHT
Kirrabilli Removals -
Didn’t expect to see you here this morning. Don’t you have a job scheduled for this morning? Or did Hyacinth ring to delay you to this arvo?
Basil Fawlty wanted a nomination for the Comical Ali of the campaign. Stephen Kaye appears to have put in a nomination for himself with the spin above about Labor’s primary being “only” 43.5. Stephen, if you’re reading, there were 2 left parties in this election and the other one got 7.8%.
My nomination for Comical Ali, however, is not Stephen or a poli. It’s Piers, Rupert’s pet toad. I missed him on Insiders this morning, desperately trying to pretend that Rudd hadn’t won.
Thanks Mathew @ 222
Yes, many, like EsJ. But the bile on the ABC site o’nite from Tories was extraordinary. Venom and vindictiveness come so much easier to the Tories, exp when they lose.
Latrobe to Labor
That’s “esp” when they lose
Keep that shit up, Steven Kaye, and you will be enjoying the fruits of opposition for a very long time.
Your dishonesty and bile is just sad.
Bye.
Just on Sky News
I’m thrilled about La Trobe swinging. Some of my comrades put in hard work there and I had a great time yesterday handing out HTVs in Berwick.
Marko, I reckon she has probably chained herself to the fence, cut her arm off Kirribilli.
If Liberals have this sort of arrogant attitude to the result then they won’t govern for another 20 years.
la trobe to labour………yippeee……getting sun burnt handing out htv was well worth it
Steven Kaye –
I repeat, there’s something drastically wrong with the methodology of these
(elections)
when they result in such an inflated Labor vote.
red wombat – which booth were you at?
Seems there is counting today, the AEC website just updated.
rgee what booth were you at
Its getting tighter in Sturt – Mia is only 79 votes behind on 2PP.
Come on, Mia, do it.
Berwick Lodge … the primary school
berwick lodge, mansfield street
hahahahahaha
HAHAHAHAH!!! I was the heavily tattooed guy in the YR@W tshirt. I was there from 9-12.
Sarah @ 210.
It should be said that the Pyne indescretions are only rumours (spread by the Liberal Party themselves)
So, given the jostling for positions withing the Party after defeat, if ever evidence were to come out, one would suspect it would be now.
me mark
#177 -
Lose graciously, when the result is such a contemptible act of national cretinism? Not on your life!
What an utterly contemptible lot the Libs and their followers are!! With an attitude like this is absolutely no wonder the electorate voted Howard and crew out of office.
And I’m sure SK and his ilk were first in line with “Suck It Up” and “If you don’t like it, leave the country” comments after the last three elections. Maybe time to follow _that_ advice Mr. Kaye.
hilarious! pludgers everywhere…
# 225 – Steven, it is so much fun reading your posts. Your anger and mean-spiritedness is more fun than laughing. Please, please keep it coming in spades. I’m loving it.
If I recall correctly it was Jordan and Thommo particularly who tried to dismiss exit polls out of hand… How wrong they were.
this is the page to watch
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseCloseSeats-13745-NAT.htm
like every 5 mins until it disapears in two weeks time
QUESTION
Di you guys over east see life sized Joe MacDonald and Kevin Reynolds Lib/Nat posters at your booths?
anyone now if corflute and bunting recyclable ………….boot chockers…
Thanks BBD
Maxine @ 51.84%, swing 5.87%, looks reasonably safe.
#237 -
“If Liberals have this sort of arrogant attitude to the result then they won’t govern for another 20 years.”
Oh, come on! How about a bit of honesty for a change? Like Labor ever accepted the legitimacy of John Howard’s victories – please don’t pretend you people meekly accepted your defeats with grace and dignity, because we all know how bitter and hateful you’ve all been over the last 11 years.
Anyway, now the Coalition have to hold Krudd to account. Lets see which of his grand promises he reneges on first.
SK #225,
You truly are a small-minded slug. Do you really believe that anytime hte electorate votes for you, they are smart, and whenever they vote for the other lot, they are dumb?
What an arrogant, born-to-rule attitude. Hopefuly, public displays of that kind from Downer et al will keep your lot in Opposition for at least 10 years, until the moderates can get in again and retake the party.
BBD. nothing over here, but then again i voted at the same booth as Kev. so that might not be the best pointer.
i must admit the support of the yr@w people was incredible…..the booth i was at wasn’t a major one (last elction 2500 votes) but we had at least half a dozen there all day handing out their htv. well done guys
Democrats facing Senate wipe-out
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/24/2100365.htm
The best piece of analysis on The Insiders todays was (bolt i think) observing two key things in the finals days of the election:
1) The Libs stacked the press club lunch then heckled and intimidated journalists
2) A group of long serving Liberals hatched the idea of the racist pamphlet in Lindsay and Jackie Kelly finding in “funny”.
Both of the these point to the liberals having lost their moral compass.
This is why they hold no state or federal office.
259- Steven Kaye
You have to hold your first party meeting before that happens- does anyone know where the Libs can rent a phone box?
Looks like no greens in vic and Queensland, however its still early days.
red wombat – I’ll pass that back to Michelle, Lita and Bec. They’ll be most pleased.
Dickson still knife edge after 9% swing, ALP 50.35 tpp, I’ve got a poultice on this one.
#250 -
“And I’m sure SK and his ilk were first in line with “Suck It Up” and “If you don’t like it, leave the country” comments after the last three elections. Maybe time to follow _that_ advice Mr. Kaye.”
Hmmm, you may be right – I may just emigrate. I think I’ll move to a country led by someone with more integrity, decency and economic know-how than Krudd. Zimbabwe looks good. Maybe North Korea.
You’re obviously very upset. Why don’t you go for a long walk? Or get drunk?
You should do anything other than write things on the internet that you’ll quickly regret.
Greens are definitly in WA and TAS.
Greens probably in SA. That makes 3 new and 2 old, so 5 overall.
Isn’t Steven Kaye pathetic? Keep it up, mate, reminds us of just how sweet it is to see you lot out.
#269 – Please don’t go, Steven. Without you, I would be thousands of dollars poorer. I love having you here.
Good morning (cough)
A note on OH&S.
John Howard’s “legacy” is about to be placed at the bottom of a 1880s cess pit. The object will be tossed into the pit and various workers will cover remains with clean fill, watching at all times for toxic leakage. Mario, a concrete worker of many years experience, will then manufacture in his wheelbarrow what he calls a “strong mix …” Do not approach Mario. He is at work. The concrete will then be used to seal the pit.
Children are allowed to watch, with approved gas masks. Also, do not forget your sun screen!
OK, time to commence the new movement, Republic 2008, Paul Keating for inaugural President.
The Liberal Party became John’s toy to play with and enjoy until he broke it. Then he gave it back.
Hope Returns
‘The Great South Land can be as great as the one it could have been’
Midnight Oil
Someone asked for a conservative view on where it went wrong.
-Desire for change after a long time government (biggest factor)
-Workchoices: too much reform, too fast
-Hometown Queensland support
-Lindsay (I would not be surprised if this cost about 1-2% nationally, several seats in NSW, including Bennelong)
-I hadn’t thought of it, but now that Megalogenis mentions it, welfare to work.
Congratulations, you must all be very happy today. Obviously, today I am not, but although I don’t always believe the public get it right, they deserve the right to make that choice.
It’s quite funny – the strong ALP primary vote in NSW has probably resulted in the Nationals retaining Calare.
Labor ran dead in Calare, but still picked up 25.3% of the vote – 2% more than the independent challenger, who probably would have won on the back of Labor and Greens preferences if he had got ahead of Labor on primaries.
The same thing seemed to have also happened in Parkes.
Ah well, such is life…
264 – I think it was George M but the point is a good one, there’s a real nastiness in some sections of both parties, but the libs have really degenerated int hat regard lately.
Bolt put it best when he said you have to have a moral message, not just an economic lone.
“Hmmm, you may be right – I may just emigrate. I think I’ll move to a country led by someone with more integrity, decency and economic know-how than Krudd. Zimbabwe looks good. Maybe North Korea”
lol – SK both would suit a rigid thinking extremist sook.
OH BTW dont let the door hit you on the arse on the way out
277
the munz of mosman Says:
The Liberal Party became John’s toy to play with and enjoy until he broke it. Then he gave it back.
In fairness, he did take full responsibility for the loss in his concession speech last night.
One of the most ironically delicious parts of last night’s thumping – the largest Labor victory in Australian history – is that the kiddies will be reading all about this in Howard’s mandated year 10-11 history courses…
It’s interesting to note that Morgan, the pollster so reviled by the Uglies, got closest to the final result.
As was once before, taking account of bias, the Libs won the election!
wpc, it is a great opportunity for true liberals to build a new and decent party out of the ashes if they care to take it, otherwise they will become increasingly irrelevant. And thanks for the congrats, like you I still believe in the collective wisdom, with hindsight they made the right decision about Latham.
Actually, if the independent candidate in Parkes had gotten ahead of Labor on primaries (at this stage, they stand at IND 21.36%, LAB 25.93%), they almost certainly would have won, as the Nationals only picked up 45.88% of the primary vote.
Hmm…if only Labor had ran even more dead…
In regards to mandates and senates and what Nick Minchin said last night. Nick ( although can’t stand the guy) is right, Labor never passed their legislation so why should the Libs, serves Labor right.
Must say though Minchin was the best i have seen him last night.
One last comment, for once i thought Howards’ speech was far better than Rudds’ , Rudd to me was full of himself and was talking like he was at a Christian gathering. The ABC should not have covered it all.
Nonetheless i am pleased with this result but would have preferred the Greens to have done better.
279
wpc Says:
Someone asked for a conservative view on where it went wrong.
-Workchoices: too much reform, too fast
In all seriousness, don’t fall for the view that you just didn’t sell it properly. That would be a serious mistake.
It was the wrong kind of reform. It will never be accepted in this country. Go back to the drawing board.
283.. Yes I heard that, but I stopped believing John a long time ago.
With 5 Senators the Greens will earn official party status and take over the old Democrats Party Room that has been vacant for the past 3 years.
Betamax @ 189: Some info on Nick Xenophon
http://www.xen.net.au/html/faq.html
so long sad times
go ‘long bad times
we are rid of you at last
Howdy gay times!
Cloudy grey times
you are now a thing of the past!
happy days are here again the skies above are clear again
let’s sing a song of cheer again happy days are here again!
Altogether shout it now
There’s no one can doubt it now let’s tell the world about it now
Happy days are here again
with thanks 1932 FDRoosevelt democrats
now for their battle against mr g w bush.
@ William Bowe Says:
Tinny
SENATE ANAYLIS – READ
For the Greens to take power in the ACT the libs need to lose a OVERALL swing of 1% which is very unlikely. This is due to some ALP votes heading towards the Liberals before the greens (under 10% of them) But there still is a chance with 27% of the vote still be counted.
So was the QLD swing as big as the anti-Keating swing there in 1996?
Hi all
Love the commentary,enjoying the early christmas present. Highlights. Janette is cement, Downer thinks state politics is a toilet bowl well below him.He knew it was all over in Feb and Andrew Bolt thinks the Liberal Party itself is damaged beyond repair. Blown out of existence
Sweet victory. The repudiation of all Howard stood for. A bigger beating than keating in 1996.
SENATE ANAYLIS PART 2
Current:
Australian Labor Party 40.72%
Liberal Party 34.07%
The Greens 21.91%
Australian Democrats 1.74%
What Women Want 0.58%
Climate Change Coalition 0.53%
Liberty and Democracy Party 0.23%
Nuclear Disarmament Party 0.20%
Needed for Greens to get in: (this assumes that all the swing goes to Labor, if some goes to the greens the libs don’t need to lose as much)
Australian Labor Party 41.71%
Liberal Party 33.10%
The Greens 21.91%
Australian Democrats 1.74%
What Women Want 0.58%
Climate Change Coalition 0.53%
Liberty and Democracy Party 0.23%
Nuclear Disarmament Party 0.20%
Using Anthony Greens Calculator.
73.19% counted so far.
Always knew the QLD’s would come to the rescue….they just hate anyone south of the border, Kev and co. were a shoe-in up there.
God, just woke up and by the size of this hangover I’m assuming we won… we did right?
‘oh the pain…the pain”
1996 swing in Qld was 8.6%
Google election page not updated yet – looking forward to seeing all that blue shrivel up and wither away..
Labor did win
259- Steven Kaye
Anyway, now the Coalition have to hold Krudd to account. Lets see which of his grand promises he reneges on first
“I will consult with John Howard”
What a nice day it is today. Don’t know what it is, but something just feels good. A sense of hope and confidence I haven’t noticed in a long time.
I think I might get me one of those “Australia – Love it or Leave it” stickers for the car. To sit next to a Kevin 07 sticker.
Maybe all those who have had a win betting on the election can make a small donation for SK’s one way ticket to Pyongyang. We’ll miss your thoughtful and considerate commentary mate. Say G’Day to Kim for us.
304 JFC
hahahaha
Sounds like a lovers tiff between Newhouse and Overington. Is the investigation into Kellys Heroes still going forward. I am disappointed that 23 thousand still voted for them in Lindsay. Makes you wonder what the Libs would have to do to lose some people.I like to think that most people I know would jump ship if our local member was involved in that sort of behavior.
Workchoices to me was part of it, but i think to have a leader from Queensland helped significantly. They perhaps as a friend commented to me last night are very parochial, and i think Anna Bligh is also a great asset.
Stephen Kaye you lost and now, you are a loser. Deal with it. Anyone heard from Nostrodamus or Tabitha?
Steven Kaye,
Neither North Korea nor Zimbabwe would let you in. Even morally repugnant, extremist, ratbag regimes would draw the line with you. Afterall, they must have some standards.
Oh yeah, of course,,, my centre bet account!… I forgot…
Wow, I only been awake 10 mins and I really like today already
2007 in Qld so far swing 8.38%, so not quite as big as 96 yet
Those Senate Analyses were for ACT above.
279 Firstly I am a not a Liberal, I am a conservative. I voted for an independent in my seat, with preferences to the Nationals. I belong to a union, and I am fairly ambivalent about workchoices. My votes towards conservatives has only a little to do with economic policy.
I didn’t say they just didn’t sell it well enough, I said the changes were too quick. Any reform should have been minor, Australians don’t like sudden changes.
Just woke up – howdy everyone… didn’t get to bed until 5am – seems our good mate Steven Kaye is still hanging around – whatever the f*ck for mate?! Please, do yourself a favour and go sulk somewhere for a while, get it out of your system. Bitter and twisted doesn’t even begin to describe your situation. It may be that you work for someone in Federal Libs maybe? And now, no job for you, State or Federal (remember, “wall to wall”). But stiff upper chin old chap, and all! The Libs have kept banging on about the excellent job prospects we all have – so you’ll find a job in no time….
What a glorious day – maybe some late lunch/early dinner in a couple of hours, and just take it all in. No I-told-you-so’s from me, but I never lost hope and certainly the polls and the campaign strategies being played out never made me feel that we were not in line for a big win. William, thanks for this site and the excellent analysis. Possum, what can I see – just brilliant!
Centaur_001, you lurking around? Bugger all happened in Higgins, which was a disappointment – it was fun though
And now Alxenader Downer is telling us on the news that the best thing the Liberals can do is get behind Peter Smirk… I mean, does it get any better?
I nominate Bolt for the “most likely to improve” award in the “previously dubious journalists” category today
Steve Kaye your bad luck could not be worse. Korea and Zimbabwe return refugees and white trailer trash like you back to their country of origin. I am sure you used to support such policies in the very recent past. So there is no escape from your ruddhell. We will do you slowly mate…
chino @ 316, I agree… at the GG though, boy where to begin? Janet Achtung, Shama, Kelly? What hope?
Costello looked really chuffed last night didn’t he? My GF said “I’ve never seen him so relaxed and… likeable”. LOL. I said, well he knows Howard is finally off his back doesn’t he!
Yes chino, I did hear a rumour that he was on a road to Damascus on foreign assignment and there was this bloody great clap of thunder……….. you know the rest
Hey Laborites. I thought you guys said Rudd was going to bring the rain and break the drought. Where’s the rain? Or are we still going with Turnbull’s rain making machine?
Thanks Bennelong, for the cherry on top. EMBRUCED!!
Howard really deserved to go out with lashings of extra humiliation on top.
The Age dead tree version has gone easy on him hehe… I give you the headlines:
“Rudd romps to historic win as Howard is humiliated”;
followed by:
“Love me or loathe me, he said: We now have the people’s verdict”
And great to see that tosser Brough electorally rogered. He deserved it – what a tool. Longman has one of the highest % of single mothers in the land live – he’s been hoisted on the petard of his own putrid welfare to work measures.
just gotta post Clarke and Dawe ‘politics of fear again’ priceless julia gillard julia gillard julia gillard
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/
Politics can’t dictate the weather #321.
They’re take action on climate change though.
I drove around Bennelong last night with a huge smile on my face. SO proud to live in Bennelong.
My wife was visiting Cairns for her brother’s 50th at the same time Howard was there. She clearly outcampaigned the rodent and henceforth in Wannon will be known as the master strategist. And thankyou all for the stimulation, anguish and joy of the last six weeks. I am in your debt, William.
Ashley, I agree. It is the first time I think I have seen Costello genuinely smile. He looked like he’d had a few as well.
Hey George…Well for a start we need to find a new name for the ‘previously referred to as’ GG paper.
Early thoughts were for the not hugely funny ‘OG’ [O as in opposition].
Any bright ideas everyone? It also depends on their own road to damascus – they may see the light and become the Rudd Gazette?!!!
Well, what a great night. Still celebrating here.
I am a bit concerned about the senate though. I saw Bob Brown talking to the media last night and form what he was saying, it sounded like the Greens had done better than we find out today.
Brown also said last night that the overall Greens vote was higher in Melbourne than it was for the Libs. Not so sure about this… I haven’t read it anywhere else. I presume that he was talking about the senate? Anyone know anything about this?
How much bloody fun was last night? The live chat was fantastic and went a long way to inform our livingroom of events happening outside of the ABC. Thanks PB!
For those who missed it and the Newsradio replay (I was nursing a sore, but very happy head), it is repeated on ABC2 at 6:30am tomorrow morning.
I wish they would hurry this count up, I made a small profit on Corangamite, Leichhardt and Bennelong (after picking some duds – McMillan and Wentworth I am looking at you) but need McEwen, Herbert and Sturt to come in before baby gets new shoes!
#332-”embruced” classic LOL. Congrats Maxine. What a star!!
Sorry – I meant the Insiders replay at 331
Greens have picked up 2 definite (WA & Tas), 1 propable seat (SA) and may get one in vic and theres a possibility for ACT. Queensland and NSW nearly impossible to get any greens seats.
Steven Kaye lets get one point straight right at the outset. Labor keeps its election promises and doesn’t hive them off into core and nonccore as the Libs have over the past 12 years. If holding Labor to account is the best you can come up with then you are in for an easy but unfruitful time in opposition.
It is interesting that Rudd went to church down the road again today. It was no stunt he is always going there when in town.
Implications DO THE RUDDs TILHE ie put 10 % of there income in the plate. If they do, the minster must be on a very good wicket. The little packet made thicks with notes must be a weekly comfort. All church of England minsters in QLD must be going after the Bulimba posting
Brian Coster on The National Interest (ABC RN) says we could have a DD by this time next year. Carmen Lawrence on now.
Excepts from “A guide to being a Liberal Supporter on the morning of 25 November 2007″:
Chapter 1: Just accept it. Our leader accepted the loss with style and grace, so should we.
more to come…..
BY the way, how disappointing was the last AC Neilson figure? I can’t believe it was Morgan who was closest
What is Pyne on? In the Sunday Mail he says “Whatever way I look at it, it is a wonderful result for the Liberal Party inSturt and for me personally.” He’s up by 74 votes and had a 6.6% swing against him. What a deluded moron.
I too think Bob Brown should reign in his pre-election hype, he always tends to over-estimate Green success. But make no mistake, this is a great result for the Greens in very difficult electoral conditions. This was always going to be a Howard referendum (which he overwhelmingly lost, OH YEAH!!!!!), and many people voted Labor to get rid of the Rodent. For the Greens lower house vote to hold up and grow slightly is a great result. Almost all other parties and minors slipped back, the Nationals and Family First among them.
The Senate count is not over, but it seems the balance of power wont go to the Greens alone. They might lose Kerry Nettle, which will be a great shame. She was one of the few activists in Parliament, a brave soul not afraid to stand up for Palestinians and West Papuans, when others were too scared to touch it. Thanks Kerry, you’ll be missed. Party status, and the Democrats’ old office in the Senate, will do wonders for the Greens campaign for 2010, when the air will be clearer. This election was not about policy, which is always going to hurt a party strong on vision, but in three years, with wall-to-wall Labor and no-one else to blame, the Greens will have their long-awaited day.
321, there were major downpours/flooding in drought areas west of Brisbane yesterday, also over Brisbane dam catchments, looks as though we are close to a major break in the weather.
#334…not to mention losing Kerry Nettle, very sad about that
Just watched Insiders (had taped it).
Can I say a big thank you to the ABC for not putting Piers Ak on, and for also getting Downer to reinforce to everyone that the Libs don’t get it.
And thank you to sportingbet for the $100 free bet! Go Maxine you good thing!
Thanks Ball Lightning. So what is the likely total number of Greens seats? I am finding it difficult to get information on this as it is all focused on the two major parties.
Speaking of Albrecht-stein,
just imagine the next meeting of the ABC Board.
Good luck with that, Keith and Janet.
A double dissolution by next year? I heard that too. I wonder if the new leader of the Liberals will be so bold as to attempt to blcok ALP legislation with the election result so clear. Also, self preservation is a very powerful motivator. The Senators may just tell the leader they are not prepared to frustrate the Govcernment’s legislative program. Rudd is NOT Whitlam.
Has newspoll lost cred?
The Senate with no upsets will be:
Liberal/National Coalition 37
Australian Labor Party 32
The Greens 5 (will go with labor on many things)
Family First 1 (will go with liberals on many things)
Others 1 (will go with labor on many things)
Greens may get 1 more possibly.
Strange….woke up this morning and the world was still here…The sun rose and there was no 4 horsemen of the Apocalypse (Union Bosses) riding down the street….
I don’t understand. John told me the country would change. I feel cheated
Noocat 329
He would have been talking about the Lower House seat of Melbourne
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/guide/melb.htm
Greens are slightly behind the Liberals on primaries as I type this, but may have been ahead at the time.
5 overall. With a possible 2 more. Both not to likely.
I also have to say how happy I am the Democrats are gone as of July 1st. They have lost all their principles since Chippy retired.
264
Spot on Albert F – the heckling of anyone asking questions about Lindsay of Howard was disgusting. Those hecklers don’t even have enough perspective of their world to realise that sort of thing should be forcing them to seriously question their own beliefs – not tacitly supporting the action. It’s like Ruddock – he didn’t even ask who those expelled were BECAUSE HE DIDN’T WANT TO KNOW.
208 Basil
Conservative Liberals…
I actually don’t think there are any in this country….that are prepared to become politicians, and I think that’s the real problem. As of this morning the shining conservative liberal light is Andrew Bolt. Longer term, I think liberalism is like the plight of the greens – in the same way that environmental issues have moved into the mainstream, small ‘l’ liberalism is also accepted to such an extent that the ALP now fits into the circle too. It’s not a big enough differentiator on it’s own to base a party around. I think the Lib fringe will rise further in the short term, and that’s not good for anyone.
Betting
This election is the first thing I’ve ever bet on in my life. Like a novice better all my eggs are in one basket. They’re not home yet, but look likely. It appears from the admissions here so far that I’m a tad more committed….
I was actually surprised by how little it took to move a market, and I think some pretty shonky things were going on in the betting world.
And no, I’m not tempted to head further into betting – the cost on my nerves is too much!
Ball Lightning: But Family First will help get rid of Work Choices methinks….
Correct, both in VIC and ACT the greens need a swing of 1% away from the Liberals to get in. VIC more likely then the ACT.
They may, i’m not entirely sure about that. I don’t know to much about FF.
Thanks again Ball Lightning. It would be great if the Greens can get one more. We’ll see. With Xenophon, that would put the Coalition and FF out of the picture for a number of bills and save us from going to a DD.
Congratulations are due to William for this site, and all the Your Rights people for not giving in. The Rights at Work co-ordinators are very special people. The ones in Victoria that I met were really good. Katie Hall and Linda Carghill take a bow. The Corangamite co-ordinator was very good too. These people changed their country, and for the better!
OK, what officially happens now?
Does JWH have to hand in his resignation to Governor General? Does the Governor have to formally ask Rudd to form government? When does he do this?
What are the rules about swearing in?
I notice that SMH is giving ALP La Trobe. Has anyone given McEwen to Labor yet?
Also, hardly anyone has mentioned Macarthur. Farmer is only 225 votes in front. Wasn’t this a 13% seat?
Intrigueingly, Costello now has the very real option of usurping territory to the left of Rudd, on social issues – most notably Aboriginal issues where Rudd disgracefully backed away from his earlier pledge to back the referendum on the constitutional preamble. The shameful display was compounded by Penny Wong on TV trying to bignote the fact that Rudd had used the phrase “indigenous Australians” in his victory speech. As if that means a damn thing.
Costello could really put the small ‘l’ back in Liberal and create a very interesting political playing field. In terms of his economic/IR attitudes, I say Costello will have learnt a bitter lesson on WorkChoices and will emerge more realistic.
Do we mourn the passing of the Democrats? I personally feel they brought on themselves. Have the Greens become the 3rd force now in people’s perception?
the munz and others: Howard had to claim the defeat as his very own, because it largely was, and no one else in the party has the cojones (yet) to slag him for staying well past his use by date.
I loved the way Dolly waffled on, (and he looked like someone who was just dragged from a train wreck). It was just people wanting a change! Sure they did, a very bloody big one as it turns out. But that was magnified by the Rodent’s selfishness in hanging on and telling his cabinet to ’stick it’ when they told him otherwise.
Bolt, for once, is very right on this, the Libs are decimated across the nation, have no ‘moral compass’, and have seriously ‘damaged goods’ as their stand-in leader.
Now, time to look at all the positives coming our way with a new shiny government. Let’s not spend too much energy kicking the carcass (oh well, a week or two should suffice! LOL)
FF are anti WC, according to S. Fielding (FF Senator)
I agree that FF will be inclined to side with Labor over ditching WorkChoices. Fielding has been critical of the impact of WorkChoices on families. He recognises the inherent unfairness in it, so I’m not too worried about that. On the other hand, when the times comes for some more socially progressive legislation, things will take a different turn with FF.
We need 6 Greens.
It looks like a 3 Libs and 3 Labor in VIC, with a 1.33% gap between Liberal and the Greens at the end. Its still possible.
The Greens v Libs contest for the 6th spot in Vic seems pretty important. Id rather the ALP only needed Greens + Xenophon.
People more in the know than me: what are di Natale’s realistic chances, % wise?
Having said that…. the nightmare scenarios of LNP majority of 39, or even blocking vote of 38 has been averted. Realisitically, that has to be seen as a good result on the back of 04.
Good riddings to Kerry Nettle. Greens are all about p**sing in the wind. All TALK.
Lib and Labour have to govern
That is the general feeling.
We do, but its not to likely.
Having just been swept out of office essentially due to Workchoices, the Tories would be well advised to re-write their IR policies.
In which case they might end up with something similar to the ALP’s policy, in which case there would be very little reason to block the ALP’s policy in the senate.
LOL. Too true. My ‘crazy warehouse guy’ confidence at 5.30pm turned to nerves at 6.30pm when it looked like there might be a bit of a contest on. But then at 8pm I was back into ‘this-government-is-walking-out-the-door, never-to-be-repeated!’ mode. LOL
Where was Piers today on the insiders? I used to hang on each incisive word from his lips, I hankered all week for his nonpartisan opinions and meaningful advice.
And just when he had the opportunity of influencing the incoming government with the benefit if his unsurpassed wisdom, he disappears from his usual podium and seemingly out of our post election world.
Ah well, as was said on Star Trek, “It’s life John, but not as we know it….”
Flash: Considering Rudd mentioned Indigenous Australian’s almost immediately, we have a noticable shift in language….think about what JWH would have said “I work for the battlers, small business….blah, blah. I think it is, at the very least, encouraging. I’m hoping for the big SORRY very soon. At least it’s back on the agenda.
The democrats definitely brought it on themselves. They forgot whatever it was they stood for. Meg Lees treachery in voting for the GST was just the beginning. Sure the tax system was broken but what we ended up with is just a mess. It affects small bsuiness (the real engine of the economy) worst of all.
Beyond the Labor win the best thing about this election was the bad form of the Greens.
I’ll judge Rudd on his actions during this term of government… not on what he said and did during the election campaign.
Wasnt it a great moment when the ABCs annoyingly incorrect list of “won seats” at the bottom of screen shifted to somehting saner?
It was rubbish till about 8pm.
Lefty E: we had meltdowns over that too! hopeless.
‘Bad form of the greens’?
Thye got a national swing even though ALP got a record 2pp, and have bagged at least 3 senators.
I look forward to more ‘bad form’ like it.
Yeah, I was like WTF is going on?!!
“Costello could really put the small ‘l’ back in Liberal and create a very interesting political playing field.”
If you are thinking that Costello would do a Cameron (UK Conservatives), I think it will be an uphill battle. The problem with the Liberal Party of today is that it has been burdened with a large number of Christian fundamentalists and other very socially conservative types.
This was highlighted a couple of months back when the Howard cabinet met to decide whether to give gay people greater rights when it comes to some financial/legal areas, such as superannuation. This was not getting anywhere near gay marriage or anything like that, but they couldn’t even bring themselves to do this small thing. Some voted in favour, but the majority voted against.
Shifting the Liberal Party to the Left will be a HUGE task. And that is why they are suffering so badly now and probably will do so for a long time. To be out of government everywhere, with the highest senior position being the Lord Mayor of Brisbane is not only a humiliation for the party, it is a reflection of a party that has become increasingly irrelevant to mainstream Australian. But the problems seem to be so entrenched, it will take a lot of work to actually pull off a transformation.
And if it gets too hard, then they will have to split. A new, more genuine Liberal party will come into being, and a smaller conservative group will be the waste material.
So will the rest of Australia.
K Jin Says:
“Beyond the Labor win the best thing about this election was the bad form of the Greens.”
put down the crack pipe, please. clearly not everyone is as keen as you are to swap liberal domination for labor domination.
toobie Says: “Lefty E: we had meltdowns over that too! hopeless.”
This was hilarious – I was on the laptop looking at a variety of sites (inluding the ABC) that where showing seat by seat counts and I had to yell out to everyone in the other room to “relax” – they were horrified when they saw the graphic – bunch of wallies
Lefty E- That killed me too. I think we could have put in a class action against the ABC for undue stress.
George: all part of the fun! A nite to remember
One thing I guess to take from this election: Wentworth and North Sydney are now safe – if they coulnd’t be lost in this, they never will be (I know Haocky was at 10%, but the polls were saying some danger).
The voters of Warringah obvioulsy don’t care who runs for them so long as he is a Liberal, because after almost the worst campaign in history, Abbott only lost .99% of his primary vote.
Also the voters of Charlton don’t care where Greg Combet lives.
On 2GB this morning still spinning a Liberal victory with whingeback callers suggesting that it was all the fault those nasty union booth workers and Liberal workers being too afraid to front.
In Chifley at Doonside North the only Liberal workers who fronted were Filipino-background people who stood around talking amongst themselves frequently not even trying to give every voter an HTV even to the extent that voters determined to vote for that nice Mr Howard often had to ask where they could get one.
The candidate Jess Diaz turned up for about an hour and embarrassed a lot of those with the same background by speaking to them in Tagalog. Many of them would not look at him in the eye.
The Filipino ALP workers eschewed the opportunity to greet their fellows in the same way. “We are in Australia, we are educated and we speak Enlish” one opined.
FFP and ONP did not front at this big booth.
^^^ “Enlish” which of course they pronounced properly (and no doubt can spell correctly).
I don’t know if anyone has mentioned the complete failure of the Exclusive Brethren to make any impact in this election. I hope the tax office go through them like a dose of salts. In fact the new Commonwealth DPP should be sicked onto them for their money laundering activities as well.
As others have pointed out, it looks like Labor will need the support of the single Family First senator AND Nick Xenophon(IND) to get legislation through the senate. Some seem to think FF will help the liberals block bills.
However:
Both FF and Mr X support ratifiying the Kyoto protocol.
Both were opposed to Workchoices.
Both favour a more compasionate stance on immigration.
FF may ask for a higher tax-free threshold in exchange for their co-operation (to help poorer families).
Nick Xenophon will ask for federal legislation to remove ATMs from poker machine venues.
Labor is likely to find it can work with both on the key issues.
Grog: Abbott is the biggest twat of the lot! A twat for a twat electorate. I have friends there and feel for them. I’m in Bradfield mind you…Brenden not much better. My street now knows how I voted (street dancing a bit of a give away
) I won’t be popular. LOL
Is there any counting today?
I want to know so I can keep track on the AEC website. I won’t bother if there is no new results.
If everyone who is currently leading wins their seat, it will be 88-60 with 2 independents,
Meaning the Coalition will need 16 seats in 2010.
There’s that number again. Ironic, isn’t it?
(I don’t think it will end up 88-60, probably 87-61 or 86-62, don’t postals/prepolls favour the coalition?)
Green 3 seat gain in the upper house. Big Deal !! Come on lets be honest They had hopes of nearly double that. All they did was swap with the Dems.
I am all for the enviroment etc but in the light of day GREENS are bad for trees. They would rather see millions of miles of bush burnt each summer then save it in winter by back burning.
Flash.
Not so sure about Costello taking over some of the social issues you mention. Following Howard he’s likely to be a cautiously populist as Rudd on those issues. THats gonna be part of the Howard legacy…the libs to be viable in the future will need to make some inroads in those battler/outer suburban seats and you dont get respect out there by making reconciliation one of your priorities (unfortunate but true).
The right wing to remain viable has to appeal outside of its grassroots demographic. Costello will choose the Howard line on social issues. People seem to think cos he walked for reconciliation in 2000 that he’s progressive. They forget that on almost every other wedge issue dredged up by Howard Costello was supportive and in some cases more hardline.
The problem for Costello and the reason why he’s not a viable leadership alternative is that he’s forever going to be associated with Workchoices. Labor have already started that narrative about his HR Nicols connections and hardline IR views. Workchoices is effectively going to make Costello electorally impotent to the battler electorates that he will need.
This being the case, the only option for the Libs is turnbull. But you can bet they won’t go near him. Why – cos as the Howard debacle has shown the party is full of second rate spineless time servers and wimps. Costello’s sense of entitlement is almost pathological and he will intimidate those who might want to question his leadership entitlement. They’ll elect him leader. Labor will hammer him as an extremist for the next 3 years (god I can’t wait to see him cop it like a lame duck in question time) and Turnbull will take over in 2010..
costello resigns
Noocat @ 380
I agree, the Liberals will do well to recover quickly from this. Now that they are out of Government, and now that the cult of personality around Howard is gone, it does make you wonder what will happen to them. There are a lot of wacked out Christian Right Wingers in the Liberals who have adopted the politics of the US Republican Party, but Australia is not that sort of place where that sort of divisive, Karl Rove approach to politics will work (in fact even the US Republicans are in a state of disrepair, as per the mid terms elections of 2006).
If the Liberals move more to the right, where people like Alex Hawke would want them to be, they will be in opposition for a long time. These right wingers are just too far outside of the mainstream to be electable, in much the same way the the Left wing of the ALP is too far away from the mainstream.
The Liberals need to move to the middle and adopt some progressive social policy. If it one thing the Liberals really never had while they were in office, it was a coherent social policy. They were only ever about the economy and negative scare tactics. And now they are the first Government to get pitched out during an economic boom. Go figure.
Oh it just gets better
how many more will go ?
Geez Donwer on Insiders was incredible – fancy scoffing at the thought of belittling himself by going into state parliament. And he wonder why the Libs can’t win state elections.
His attitude suggests there’ll be a bi-election in Mayo soon (although I bet he fancies himself as sticking aroung being the “puppet master” lol).
At the St Andrews booth, one of the non-hippy voters had been an Australian resident for 48 years who had just become a citizen. He gave one reason as so he could vote against the Liberals’ IR laws.
John V Russell (373),
Meg Less committed no act of treachery in voting for the GST. The Democrats promised before the lection that they would do so. She was following the promise she was elected on.
I am not surprised by the result. Below are a few of my earlier posts, predicting a Labor victory from February.
260107 (Idle speculation about the federal election)
‘The only prediction I make is one I have been making for years: the Democrats are finished. No ifs, no buts – they will lose all their Senate seats – and it will be their own fault.’
280207 (Idle speculation: late February edition)
‘I’ve just looked through Labor’s National Curriculum Policy. Kevin Rudd will retain the initiative all year. He is absolutely determined. He will hit hard and fast and without warning from every direction under the sun. He will keep the government on the run, and he will win. If I’m right, I’ll claim bragging rights. If I’m wrong, I hope you will all forget I said this – I will.’
120307 (Idle speculation: mid- March edition)
‘It would be foolish to say that Kevinism is unstoppable, but I still think Labor will win and win clearly. I’ll leave the numbers till later. This is not 2001, or 2004, or even 1969. This is 1972, but with the advantage of no Whitlam government at the end of it.’
190307 (Idle speculation: 61-39 edition)
‘The Howard government has become a joke. This is more likely to be fatal than being called evil by the usual suspects.
‘If Christopher Pearson reflects the continuing Liberal line with his statement, ”The idea of Rudd as a hostage to Burke, rather than merely his dupe, will begin to trouble more of those who already feel he hasn’t been completely truthful’ (“The overdrawn account”, The Weekend Australian, March 17, 2007), then the government is gone’
290307 (Idle speculation: late March edition)
‘The 2004 ALP-DLP-FF deal was designed to elect Jacinta Collins (the No. 3 ALP candidate). It was reported in the press before the election. Any ALP member who did not know about it did not take enough interest in politics to justify being a member of a political party. I am certain there will not be the same deal this time, not because of anything to do with “progressive” policies”, but because the practicalities of the next election will be different.’
030607 (Idle Speculation: annihilation edition)
‘I still think Labor will win, and do so convincingly. (I’ll leave the figures till later.) The Liberals have been totally ineffective in countering the Labor message since last year. I think many are being misled by the previous Liberal victories from behind and cannot risk believing that Labor will finally do it, in case the disappointment is too great. At the same time, there is northing inevitable about a Labor victory. The spin from The Australian is the most entertaining I have seen in 40 years, but very few people read that paper, and its stance is so obvious that no one will not see through it.
‘The Liberal misreading of the minds of voters is the greatest I have ever seen too. This suggests to me that they have simply lost it.’
and
‘I predict Labor to gain 22 seats. I should add that, as a person with little interest in football, I have entered only one football tipping competition in my life. I won.
‘I think there is a chance that the coalition will gain only two Senate seats in one state, which would leave it with the ability to block Labor legislation on its own but take away its ability to carry any bills, amendments or motions without the support of Family First.
‘I will revise my predictions in July. If there is no budget bounce by then, that’s it.’
140607 (Idle speculation: Bryan overboard edition)
‘I’ll argue the toss. Kevin Rudd has set the agenda since the start of the year, which gave him a commanding lead. He has not finished setting the agenda. Labor will maintain its lead until the election. The Liberals have wasted six months in trivial attacks on him and his party, and they have not landed a blow. The polls will move up and down and the future is not set in stone, but I am confident of a Labor victory. The only advice I would give him is to be clear and stop jumping all over the place on IR. He should take my advice, just like Frank McManus should have in 1974.’
My Senate prediction was Labor 34, Coalition 37, Greens 3, FF 1, Nick Xenophon 1. It looks like Labor will be a little lower and the Greens a little higher, but the other three seem spot on at this stage of the count.
I am surprised at the fall in the DLP Senate vote in Victoria. It was even outpolled by the Democrats here, while it has done better in other states where it has not existed for more than 30 years.
I have had a look at the Andrew Bolt Forum and the Liberal supporters are predicting the end of civilisation, just as they did in the press the week after the 1999 Victorian election. Civilisation got better, and Labor followed up with two landslides, in 2002 and 2006. Kevin Rudd will win the next federal election with a further swing to the ALP.
Adam (if you are viewing),
In ‘Idle speculation about the federal election’ (10/2/2007), you said that a “Rudd government will probably be the nearest thing to a Christian Democrat government Australia has ever had”. Do you maintain that view? I have said on one thread that Kevin Rudd will be our first DLP prime minister. I just wanted to say it first, but I am sure someone else in the ALP or the media will say it at a future date, just as they said that Steve Bracks was Victoria’s first DLP premier.
I also wonder how soon the usual suspects will start attacking the Rudd Government on the same issues as they attacked the Howard Government and how the ALP will deal with the internal tensions that arise from Mr Rudd’s election-winning conservatism and the ALP activists’ trendyism.
Costello Resigns???
Where, where, WHERE??????
What a gutless wonder.
pathetic.
PK was right – low altitude flyer.
Rudd wants to govern for ‘all Australians’. There have also been parallels drawn between what he wants to do and British Labour. I wonder if he will attempt to draft any Liberals into a ministry as Brown has sought to do with both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems? Petro in multiculturalism for instance? And I wonder what the response of these people would be in that event?
He just said that he will not seek the leadership, but retain his seat.
401 Sky News
fifth time this gutless turd would not take the leadership
Costello is a gutless wonder Howard was right about him all along.
Greg S: “He just said that he will not seek the leadership, but retain his seat.”
too good…
380
Noocat Says:
The problem with the Liberal Party of today is that it has been burdened with a large number of Christian fundamentalists and other very socially conservative types.
Not to mention its meanness of spirit and total self-absorption (I’m doing ok so bugger off anyone who’s not). This was very evident in JH’s address at the Press Club, where the Liberal rent-a-crowd booed respected commentators like Michelle Grattan. Hard to see how they can rebuild.
what????????????? resigns from what????
HOW F’ING GUTLESS CAN THIS GUY GET!?
#406 Who wants to lead a bunch of loosers LOL. Gutless and spineless nonetheless. A better man/woman would see the challenge and rise to it. Not Costello!
Costello won’t even seek leadership??
Unbelievable. PJK you picked him right all along .
It’s probably a smart move. He can sweep in at a later date. Still won’t change a thing. He is unelectable.
Get yer hand off it, K jin.
Getting a national swing *while the ALP scored itshighest 2PP in postwar history* is an excellent performance.
They now have 5 senate seats, and may yet get 6.
They have also comprehensively vanquished the democrats, and are now the ONLY third force / minor party in the country (leaving aside the one accidentally elected loser FF senator, which was just an Vic ALP stuff up).
All in all – top result.
Shame actually. Smirk would have ensured at least one more Rudd term he’s so appalling. Please let Dolly go for it.
This is the more difficult decision for Costello to take in some ways. It would have been more of the same from him to just take the leadership.
today does feel the best. i handed out in Corangamite for Your Rights at Work yesterday, and the Libs knew by 11AM they were in for a hiding. Rights at Work had more people on the booth than Labor or Liberal. bye bye Howard. No-one liked you anyway.
Not to forget Lefty E that the Greens will now have official party status. More staff, etc.
How are the postal votes going LTEP? Still pointing to a shock Coalition victory with 48% of the 2PP?
Just wanted the Prime Ministership given to him.
Fair Dinkum has there been a better example of a born to ruler than this fraud.
What an absolute pea heart coward.
I cant believe the lack of guts.
And they used to go o about Beazleys tickers.
Liberal frauds.
LTEP. Nope. If he won’t take it now, he wil forever be branded as the most spineless political figure in Australian politics.
I mean Howard just told the nation the LIberals should get behind Tip.
Downer just said the LIberals should get behind Tip.
I don’t usually refer to people by their nicknames here, but sh*t, he REALLY IS ALL TIP.
See the GG had one final slap at Labor yesterday.
Award-winning journalist Caroline Overington hurled abuse at Labor candidate for Wentworth George Newhouse before slapping him across the face at a polling station in Sydney’s east, witnesses say.
Ms Overington, a Walkley winning reporter who works for The Australian newspaper, has been embroiled in a dispute involving a series of emails to independent candidate Dani Ecuyer urging her to preference Wentworth Liberal MP Malcolm Turnbull.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/journo-slaps-candidate/2007/11/24/1195753358992.html
He should at least CHALLENGE for the leadership to demonstrate he wanted it.
Even if he lost, at least he would’ve demonstrated that he WANTED it.
Yeah thats a pity if true cos costello as leader was a guaranteed second term for Labor..
Do you expect anything else from her?
@ 414 Lose the election please Says:
Costello the man who had the effrontery to attack Beazley who picked up the ALP pieces twice as having “no ticker” now reveals himself a gutless wonder.
We forget that the polls had started to turn before Rudd moved.
So is Turnbull now the front runner?
Yes
I think, or at least hope, it will be come increasingly apparent that one of the main reasons Rudd won so comfortably is his intellect.
Many go on about Howard being a canny, cunning, tough politician. Science, innovation and techology have been horrendously neglected in this country while continuing to become more important. Global issues continue to become more complex, and it takes a keen intellect to simplifying enough to see solutions, without simplifying to much to leave only ideology, and no evidence, to inform direction.
I think Rudd has demonstrated a quite stunning capacity to understand and negotiate the political issues by understanding that their roots lie in substantive issues and changes in the world. One of the most difficult things to do is to peel back layers of complexity to get to the essence of key problems. Part of this means taking advice wherever it is needed. SOLUTIONS ARE OFTEN MUCH SIMPLER THAN ANYONE IS LED TO BELIEVE BY POLITICAL RHETORIC.
I don’t want a leader who is canny, I want a leader who has the intellectual power to genuinely grasp the issues we are all faced with, and to tackle those issues strategically.
Whether or not Howard was canny, he was all but anti-intellectual. This is something we can ill afford in 2007. The most fundamental thing I believe he underestimated is the difference between genuine intellect and political “savvy”.
It’s a good day — a new beginning, I hope, of an age of smart solutions that will make all our lives simpler and better.
I take it people have noticed Labor has pulled in front in McEwen.
Labor may win McEwan
Peter Costello has announced his intention to refuse the Liberal Party leadership and quit politics for business following the Howard Government’s election defeat.
Mr Costello made the announcement to journalists in Melbourne this afternoon.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/costello-wont-lead-libs/2007/11/25/1195947541130.html
This is best for the Libs in the long run.
Costello won’t run again
There’s some nonsense in comments above about the Greens doing badly.
On current AEC figures, the Green share of the national senate vote
is 9.02%, up 1.35%. (Other environmental parties: the Climate Change
Coalition scored 0.56% and Conservatives for Climate and Environment
0.07%, replacing Liberals for Forests with 0.90% at the last election.)
Three senate seats may not be as much as some had hoped for, but is
still a damn good result. And Victoria and Queensland may yet deliver more
(I’m pretty sure the ACT is not going to happen).
And that spineless turkey would have taken the PMship had Howard won?
What a weak-kneed pissant.
Why the f*ck did he run in Higgins then? What a loser.
Yeah, the threat of unions in small businesses was so strong that people just voted in a Labor government.
OH DEAR LORD, Costelo’s wife is weirder than Tip.
Steven Kaye, about your emigration plans.
If you promise never to come back, I promise to pay your departure tax.
Otherwise, enjoy the next decade. I certainly will.
Holy Cow!!! and still blabbing the scare campaign!!! i’m scared for Oz, union heavies on the doorstep of small business. what a gutless wonder.
I actually think this is a smart move by Costello. He knows his chances of ever being PM are virtually zero now.
Isn’t Costello the most dishonest gutless spineless loser!
Listen to this lovely comment in this story:
Howard likely to lose in Bennelong
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2007/11/24/1195753377773.html
“When Ms McKew appeared on giant screens around the Wentworth Hotel ballroom, filmed being feted by the Labor faithful at her Bennelong function, loud boos rang out. Some Young Liberals abused the Labor candidate, one yelling “get a facelift, you slag”"
On the topic of churches and exclusive bretheren and their ilk, perhaps now is a good time to look at taxing them as corporations. Why not? They seem to exhibit the same disregard for the welfare of society, and they have their Lear jets and all the trappings. They are a useless anachronism, full of nitwits who could not hold a job in the real world. Their main reason for existence these days seems to be kiddy fiddling, ship the lot of em out I say. Tax em on their massive property holdings too.
And Bishop will be deputy? – To fight Julia with anaother woman?
STOP PRESS:
Steve Kaye is actually Peter Costello and he on the run trying to escape ruddhell…
Costello obviously wants to be shadow foreign affairs for a term or two before challenging Turnbull in 5 years time.
I’m assuming he wants to stay on the front bench.
AHHAHAHAHHA Now Costello is accusing the ABC of bias!
439
Spiros Says:
Steven Kaye, about your emigration plans.
If you promise never to come back, I promise to pay your departure tax.
I’d chip in for the airfare.
Now its the ABC’s fault that Lindsay got all the coverage and the Libs couldn’t get their message out.
Can these people be any more deluded.
Policies were good AUstralians “just wanted change”.
You keep believing that smirk. – Idiot.
re: 443: http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200709/r175611_667513.jpg
Its certainly in the best interests of the Libs. No way Smirker would have worried Rudd in 2010.
Turnbull will do a better job.
C’mon people. You know Costello has no chance of winning the next election. If he takes the leadership he will lose the election (if he gets that far) and then get knifed by Turnbull.
I think it’s the only sensible option open to him. At least he knows when he is f$*ked… unlike Howard.
The best campaign manager in the history of democracy says:
Liberals will not fall apart: Loughnane
Costello quits.
No wonder they lost the election
Ah, good morning all. Here in Robertson Belinda is still trying to find a way to lose yet again against a weak local member. Lucky it wasn’t crucial.
SirEggo – I reckon Macathur is still alive too on those figures – how do we find out how many postal there are?
The age says he is quitting politics for business.
I couldnt help but laugh when Howard timed his concession pefectly to interrupt Costello.
John Hunt, I had Steven Kaye as Downer.. but he could be a chimera of them both.
I love how not 3 hours ago Downer just told the naiton that Turnbull doesn;t have the experience to be leader!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/25/2100474.htm
Leadership
Mr Downer says he supports Mr Costello as the next leader of the Liberal Party.
“No one in the party has the experience of Peter Costello and I think there shouldn’t be a contest for the leadership, it should just go straight to Peter Costello,” he said.
Experience
Mr Downer says Mr Costello will made a formidable opposition leader, and he will have Mr Rudd’s measure.
these guys are soooooo deluded….. they cant believe that arn’t ruling anymore. over the course of the next few months these guys are really going to show how much they are out of touch. He virtually accused the public of not knowing what they were doing. what an arrogant Fwit.
what a prick. we didnt know what we were voting for!
Costello bagging Labor now is hilarious. Because whatever he says about Labor, the voters have just said that the Liberals are worse.
Its a smart move by Costello. He will now be the one to carp at Turnbull (or whoever) from the back benches. He was damaged goods and there is no way he had any hope of lasting the next three years. On the back bench he will try and rehabilitate his image by doing soft appearances on the morning shows etc.
I have no doubt that he still desires the PM’s position and this is the only way he believed he could achieve it.
He will still never be PM.
Turnbull isn’t exactly mr. popular either.
Costello still sniping. This is petty stuff. Just take the decision.
so who guessed it right? Does the fact that Morgan got it reasonably close mean that they are out of the doghouse and AC Nielsen are out?
Wonder if he will be tempted to tip a big bucket over some of Ratboy’s little skeletons in the closet
Oops should have read the story closer. Didn’t realise he was quitting politics altogether. My bad.
Can’t believe it!
The guy was annointed as Howard’s successor, and he won’t take his medicine and sit in the opposition leader’s chair. Absolutely gutless…….
Who’s going to be opposition leader now?
Turnbull, Downer, Nelson, Bishop?
Gulp……Abbott?
What aboput his effing wife piously and earnestly reading out part of a CJ Dennis poem.
FFS these tories are weirdo’s and cowards.
How the flipping hell did they get 46% tpp is beyond me.
God what a train wreck.
Please let it be Dolly
Oh please, please, please.
So the implosion begins. Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of bastards! The final irony: while the senior Liberal in the country is Campbell Newman, Lord Mayor of Brisbane, the senior Coalition person is Karlene Maywald, a National Party member, who is (get this, folks) a Minister in Rann’s Labor Govt in SA. Delicious!
How prophetic
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rnwn4q_ZE9c
Nelson might be a dark horse, notwithstanding his shocking series of blunders in Defence. Surely Downer wouldn’t delude himself he could do any better than last time.
Turnbull is not Mr Popular. He did the Republic cause no good. He is also not great in parliament.
Costello will be savaged for this.
He will be mud in the Liberal Party.
My sister just rang, apparently Pyne has said something about going for the deputy leadership. lol
Their update now says that he will stick around “to mentor new MPs” but is implying that he will leave at some stage to move into business.
Is he quitting politics altogether? The story says he’s staying on in Higgins and seeking employment in the private sector?
Does that mean he’s staying on until the next election and then leaving?
Flash Says: “Surely Downer wouldn’t delude himself he could do any better than last time.”
We can only live in hope Flash…
But Turnbull is the guy Labor would least want to face next time around. He is smart, reasonably progressive, and very marketable notwithstanding the wealth factor (Rudd is hardly a battler of course).
So I guess we will never see the Abbott and Costello Show?
That seems to be the implication. Of course he could change his mind between now and the next election.
Their update now says that he will stick around “to mentor new MPs” but is implying that he will leave at some stage to move into business.
Code decryptor… coming through now…
to mentor new MPs…… to heap shit on whoever is the leader and generally stuff things up for the rest of you bastards!
LTEP – will stay for the term but reckons he is looking at post politics.
Core or non core retirement?
The legacy of JW Rodent is the wreck of Menzies child.
Oh the joy – the joy.
You live for days like today.
Turnbull-Pyne – the new “dreamteam”
he’s not quiting. he’s staying on to serve his constituents.
SirEggo,
“Who’s going to be opposition leader now?
Turnbull, Downer, Nelson, Bishop?”
Do you mean Bronnie? hahaha
Yes George, wouldn’t it be marvellous if Downer snared it. He would certainly be more popular at a personal level.
And yes Costello will bow out of politics at the end of this term, to enter “the commercial world” which could translate I suppose as trying to winner another Dollar Sweets type case.
Small problem for Pyne,
Don’t you have to win your seat first before you have a go at the deputy leadership?
Walk before you can run Christopher…….
Costello knows he’d be opposition leader for at least 6 years and that Costello would most likely get him after the 2010 loss. Given his strutting tough slob behaviour in parliament, he probably can’t stomach the idea of being humiliated by Labor on the floor of parliament. The ‘tickerless’, ‘gutless’ line would have been brutal. Bullies usually run a mile when the odds turn against them.
Leader of the opposition is a hard, thankless job and for a guy like Costello who’s a lazy, unimaginative, born to rule kind of guy, the idea of actually having to do some work would have disturbed him. No more brilliant macro economic figures effortlessly flowing in that he can take credit for, no more treasury holding his hand, he’d have to get out of the hammock. No wonder he’s getting out.
Probably the greatest lame arsed patsy in the history of australian politics.
I think he’ll be retiring some time during this term. Possibly might stay on until the end of the term but there’s no way he will contest it. Plenty of $ to be made in the business world for someone with his connections.
As an ALP supporter I can say we have gotten too used to being in opposition and losing at the crucial moment.
Here we are not 24 hours after the greatest Labor win in history, and there people getting nervous about 2010!
lol
481: Turnbull-Pyne – the new “dreamteam”
Turnbull better watch his back then!
Basil Fawlty
I meant Julie Bishop. But Bronwyn couldn’t do any worse.
Oh god, what am I saying?
*uppercut to self*
Just woke up. Got a massive hangover. Very pleased with winning but entirely gutted by my fellow west australians. How the f**k did they not see Rudd as an asset to our future. Handed out pamphlets for Liz Prime in Cowan all bloody day… had a chat to her and she seemed really nice.. but WA knobs voted for that mungbean Simpkins. It’s got me stuffed.
Just goes to show that maybe Former Lib Premier Richard Court was right to suggest that WA secede from the Commonwealth of Australia 10 years ago. We are a totally different breed and don’t deserve to call ourselves Australian.
DavidS- You are right. But Rory McEwan is in the same boat as Minister for Agriculture in SA as a National.
When I said Downer would be more popular personally, I mean more popular among the parliamentary Liberal party than Turnbull, who is not liked.
Oh yes and its official as far as Im concerned: Morgan the undisputed poll winner!!
Shock result, no?
Sunday November 25, 12:38 PM
http://au.news.yahoo.com/071018/2/14pm7.html
Morgan wins pollster title
For pollsters the result that mattered most was their final pre-election prediction and how closely it matched reality.
The winner was the Morgan Poll which came within 0.9 per cent of tipping the two-party preferred vote – Labor 53.41 coalition 46.59 – with its final poll on Friday evening.
Morgan also tipped correctly that outgoing environment minister Malcolm Turnbull would hold onto his marginal Sydney seat of Wentworth but might be wrong with its prediction that outgoing prime minister John Howard would hang on in Bennelong.
The Neilsen poll, published in Fairfax newspapers on Friday, was the least accurate of the major opinion polls with its prediction of a 57-43 win for Labor.
Newspoll and Galaxy, which both predicted a close-run race following a late surge to the coalition, also got it wrong predicting a 52-48 margin to Labor.
Yeah SirEggo, i realised who you meant, but the devil made me do it.