A more lucid analysis will have to wait for tomorrow. For the moment I can only offer some swing breakdowns: 5.6 per cent in Sydney, 5.5 per cent in the rest of New South Wales; 5.4 per cent in Melbourne, 4.7 per cent in the rest of Victoria; 7.8 per cent in Brisbane, 8.5 per cent in the rest of Queensland; 1.4 per cent in Perth, 4.1 per cent in the rest of WA; 5.8 per cent in Adelaide, 9.2 per cent in the rest of SA (Mayo, Barker and Grey); 2.5 per cent in Tasmania; 1.7 per cent in ACT; 2.8 per cent in NT.
I think I can also manage an overview for the Senate, which has produced a surprisingly strong result for the Coalition and a number of disappointments for the Greens. Kerry Nettle is gone in NSW, with three seats each for Labor and the Coalition. It’s looking like the same result in Victoria, although Greens candidate Richard di Natale might yet take the final seat from the third Liberal candidate Scott Ryan. The Greens also seem to be falling short in Queensland, their candidate 2.4 per cent behind Labor’s third for the final seat. Better news for the Greens from Western Australia, which turned in its expected result of three Liberal, two Labor, one Greens, and South Australia, where their candidate looks likely to just keep ahead of Labor at the second last exclusion and win the final seat on their preferences. Tasmania is a clear three for Labor, two for Coalition and one for Greens, and Australian Capital Territory and Northern Territory split one Labor and one (Country) Liberal as normal.
Assuming the Greens don’t get up in Victoria, and unless my late night/early morning arithmetic leads me astray, that points to 18 seats out of 40 for both Labor and the Coalition, three for the Greens and one for Nick Xenophon. Combined with ongoing Senators, that means 37 for the Coalition (one short of a blocking majority) and 32 for Labor, with the balance consisting of five for the Greens, one Family First and one Nick Xenophon. The Greens will thus not hold the balance of power in their own right, with the Coalition being able to stitch together a blocking majority with Fielding or Xenophon or an absolute majority with them both. Interesting times ahead.
1,248 Comments
So do we interpret that the Senate swing has not matched that in the House of Reps?
Hi William,
Do you mean ACT and NT splitting one ALP and one LP (CLP) as normal?
Have to say I am really disappointed that Humphries got his quota in ACT. Real shame, I think Tucker would have been an infinite improvement on that cretin.
I would also like to say that the wonders of modern communication meant I was able to watch the entire ABC election coverage, and part of rage, live from Wimbledon. Marvellous stuff. Made me really homesick!
Have corrected that point of confusion in my post, Dogford. Liberal vote in ACT is 34.07 per cent, so Gary Humphries home and hosed.
How did others make out with the bookies? We found out in this house how futile betting really is. We bet on 5 individual seats, won in only two of those and made a grand total of $1 compared to our initial layout. Have Mal Brough to thank for that, otherwise we would have lost $50 compared to the inital layout.
How did others do?
I cleaned up.
Made a nice little profit, well worth the effort!
This thread does not come up with the initial load of the PB page. You have to go to the end of the old thread and get it through your link, William. Is that a problem with my computer or if not, will you load it to the main page? The first thread I see is one of the special threads for monitoring the seats that are too close to call.
Well done William. Which seats did you bet on? Corangimite?
I made money only on Bennelong, and that was with a free bet. I was counting on North Sydney.
Morning tragics.
QUEENSLANDER.
Petrie, Richmond, Macquarie, Deakin, Braddon, Moreton, Bonner and Greenway. $2500 payout on $1300 outlay. Only bet that didn’t come in was a speculative $20 flutter on Wentworth at 6-1.
Re 7,
Thanks, William
Wiliam,
My I ask if you need more donations for running the site? Your bandwidth has served us well in the last few days.
I take it you’re not still getting that problem Julie?
William, first thanks for the great work.
Congrats on nailing the Labor seat total.
This is an excellent Senate update which the silly tv networks totally ignore.
My only comment at this stage is that thankfully the Family First Senator promised to abolish WorkChoices in his electoral advert on television, which is the most important legislation for Rudd Labor to get through.
Presumably it can’t be until after 1 July, or will it be allowed to go through earlier? Minchin on ABC didn’t sound inclined to give Labor a mandate free pass, saying that Labor previously held up the GST and other legislation for which Howard had won a mandate in an election.
Then again, it will be Opp. Leader Costello calling the shots, and he might be more than happy to see the Workchoices albatross cut down sooner rather than later, and being obstructionist for the sake of a few months is not a good look. It will be an indicator whether he’s going to show a different style of leadership than never give an inch Howard.
13, No William, it cleared itself up as soon as I noted the problem. Seems the gremlins out there heard me
William, do you keep a count of the number of posts since the campaign was launched, must be in the many thousands.
QUEENSLANDER. YES we hand cricket bats in both hands. Interesting the guy who made the baseball quote Goss Now works for his former employees wife and his former employee is now PM
(10) Impressive. I wish I’d bet on Dickson. Dutton was a cretin, and really had to go. I am really pleased to see the parliament rid of a few first class idiots. None more so that Dutton, and maybe Dave Tollner. Gee whizz, how did these guys ever get in there?
On Gary Humphries winnng in ACT. Can we take it that Rudd’s threat to drastically slash the Public Service might have hurt Labor there?
Julie,
I lost a bunch of lettuce betting on Howard to win, way back when the odds were almost even at 2 to 1 because I so desperately wanted Howard to lose.
Obviously doesn’t matter compared to the Homeric Ruddslide (biggest swing since Fraser’s over Whitlam?).
“Oh,happy days, oh happy day……” -haven’t felt so good in years!!!!
Just a small niggle-there should have been some official acknowledgement by Labor of the contribution that the Greens made in their win they would not have won it without them. And good to see John Faulkner receive a public thanks for all the work he has done….such good value. Lastly,relieved that Petro Georgiou has retained his seat as he had the courage to speak up re asylum issues.
May the phoenix that rises from the Lib ashes be truly liberal and humanitarian.
Thanks,William ….a priceless site. And thanks to all of you who provided this ‘L’ plater with so much insight and humour.
I also did ok on betting. Had 2k on Labor @ 1.22, 40 on McKew @ 2.85 and the free $10 on Wentworth. Shame about Wentworth, but so happy that the direction of the ation will change for the better.
Happy happy day.
Yesterday I dared not hope, but today I feel like a big weight has dropped from my shoulders. Look forward to all the post-analysis here. What will Dennis, Milne, Bolt, Akerman etc have to say???
Ok everyone – last night had to be a rogue poll right??
Did labor win?
Hehe
Good luck to you labor supporters – and all you australians under labor
feeling abit hazey today…but I suppose you also mean that it will be interesting to see how far the Libs go with trying to block the IR rollback that KR will no doubt claim a big mandate for – then interesting to see if they can stitch that opposition together.
Ding dong the witch is dead!
QLD’ers were waiting. We’re a harsh bunch when we want to be.
Good morning all. How good was that night????
Nick Minchin on the ABC last night was already saying that the Labor didnt necessarily have a mandate to roll back Workchoices… and that he couldn’t guarantee that the Libs would pass it. If that’s any sign of what’s to come, things could get interesting. Nick X and the Greens could be in a powerful position. But then again what does Fielding have to gain by helping the Lib’s to block?
If the Senate screws Rudd over, there will be a DD election. Only question might be how far into the piece?
My prediction of a 53.4% 2PP is looking good at the moment as this is the exact figure quoted on the ABC News special this morning at 8am.
My seat prediction was 83. Haven’t got a clue how that’s going.
I lost my $10 on Mike Bailey, and my $20 on Peter Tilney.
However, I won with my $100 on Maxine at $2.85. So I guess that’s $155 nett winnings, which is nice as yesterday I paid a $145 fine for not voting in a local government council election 8 months ago.
Ka-ching…
Therefore, I’m ten bucks ahead on electoral matters this weekend.
At least I broke even, which is happily more than I can say for the Rodent.
I had $500 on Maxine @ $2.85, and some smaller bets on Page, and the only loser was a wild one, Cowper (ok, Sportingbet’s money, so no harm done)
But frankly, the sheer joy of seeing that lot depart was worth more than money!
Senate sounds like a bit of a worry though, and why such a strong showing for the coalition? The senate voting always seems like the dark arts are involved, and dark deals done, and is all rather opaque. On the one hand, a nice clean sweep in the House, but all that murky stuff ‘upstairs’.
Julie. And you can only imagine the electorate would punish those blocking.
Would the remaining rump have the hubris to block when there is a clear mandate?
YES
And if they do, then we can get rid of the rest of them!
But the balance could be with the greens, nick x and FF. These parties would have nothing to gain by blocking.
The only danger would be if Fielding tries to demand something in return for his vote like banning dancing in public or putting decent coverings on table legs.
The Libs will have nothing to gain by blocking roll back
‘morning all.
It was raining last nite, and this morning it’s sunny.
I got $700 on Maxine @ $3.65 months ago.
Und Glen ist noch nicht aufgestanden.
There is a God.
I cleaned up in Forde and Petrie, optimistic in Bennelong and Dickson, lost in McPherson because that is my local electorate, more of a patriotic bet than reality.
Ave it 07 #25,
Don’t think that we’ll forget your trolling. We won’t – neither side likes trolls.
Overall –
Pity about the Senate figures – I’d hoped for a big swing there, but it didn’t happen.
Posted on the other thread, however wanted to share my ranting with everyone on this new one
I would just like to apologise for my rather intemperate and vindictive post at 1.21am this morning (#787). I rather think it was the copious amounts of Scotch and half dozen beers I had consumed.
I dont believe the Unions are coming back, and I haven’t been a Unionist for decades (although I do work for a membership organisation with 115,000 members, where my co-workers dont find it very funny when I DO refer to us as a Union
). Prime Minister Rudd (oh that sounds good), will keep his promise to work with Australians of all persuasion ad the Unions are only a small part of the overall picture.
One thing I will not apologise for is my attack on the insidious, hatefilled, ideological attack on Australians through the Tories unauthorised and unheralded Workchoices crime. This legistlation, this vindictive, arrogant, extremist legistlation attacked not only current and future generations, but the memory of working Australians who fought and suffered for our basic working conditions.
Bob Hawke is deadset correct that every man and woman in the workforce owes the Union movement a debt for Annual Leave, Sick Leave, LSL, a five day working week, redundancy pay, and other. The basic rights of a decent country that respects and honours its citizens. These right wing extremists and ideologues wanted to strip us of our basic rights and our history.
Well Australians have spoken. Most Australians dont “hate” Unions like Jackie Kelly’s stupid husband. Australians see a Bernie Banton and what the Union movement and Bill Shorten did for him and his cause. That is decency, and that is right.
A couple of thank you’s.
1) Mark Latham.- Just over three years ago I sat watching Howard making his customary gloating victory speech after Latham had gone off the rails. I was mortified. The Labor party was going to be out of power for at least 6 years. What was worse was that the Tories had control of the senate. An unmittigated disaster.
Well hows that for irony. Through Mark Latham and his performance we got the conditions where the arrogant, born to rule, hubris laden government could finally drop their sheeps clothing and inflict on Australian working men and woman the hated Workchoices.
2) John Howard – Mr Howard, you have always been at the forefront of the NSW right uglies. You hounded the wets out of your party in the late 80’s and early 90’s, you attacked the weak in our society, you dog whistled and appealed to the basest of the electorates fears and prejudices and used these prejudices to wedge and divide the nation, you made our country bigoted, xenophobic, insular, and inward looking. And you did all this with the smug reassurance of a man who thinks he is so clever that the people will be fooled forever.
You allowed hubris and your insane extremist right wing views to allow you to believe that you had a mandate to attack the very people that elected you in the first place, the so called “Howard Battlers”. How a politician could be so arrogant to believe that they could get away with this is astounding.
Well Mr Howard your enduring legacy will not be the destructiion of the labour movement. Your legacy will be swept away by the new Labor Govt. Your legacy is now your epithaph.
You will have no victory lap, you will not be known in history as Menzies lite, you will be remembered for plunging our country into fear and for that crime being thrown out of not just office, but parliment alltogether.
I will not thank K-Rudd, Julia Gillard or my local member Nicola Roxon. Your work is in front of you. Time to walk the walk.
A final thank you to William Bowe for this tremendous site, and to all the other bludgers (especially the Keating lovers
) who has made me feel I am in a room full of fellow true believers.
The sun is up – its a new dawn, a new day, and Australia is once again back on an even keel.
End of rant
did someone say something about a narrowing ???
What a great morning. A bit disappointed by the Senate. The DD may be on now.
Want a good laugh? Here’s a snippet of Miranda Devine’s comments from the Wentworth Hotel last night:
Baume’s theory is that Howard has worked himself out of a job. The aspirationals who voted for him in 1996 and remained loyal through four elections “have achieved the great bulk of what they aspired to,” he said.
But then they wanted more, And “if you don’t get three cars in your garage rather than two, you’re p…ed off with someone”.
Dame Leonie Kramer agreed. “Once you start aspiring you never stop,” she said.
Constitutional Monarchist David Flint, another True Believer in the Wentworth ballroom, blamed internal Liberal fighting and media bias for the poor Coalition showing and giving Kevin Rudd “a dream run”.
He also blamed “a member of cabinet” who he would not name who he suspected of having leaked information detrimental to the Liberal cause, first that the Prime Minister had lost the confidence of Cabinet later APEC, and then that Malcolm Turnbull had tried to get him to ratify Kyoto. The Liberal party will be “shaken” for some time,” he said.
….don’t ya just love Dame Leonie’s comment? Oh, they really don’t get it, do they?
And oh yes, all that ‘media’ bias to Rudd!!!!!
The born to rule set always love to blame their inferiors, don’t they? God, it’s so hilarious watching them fall over themselves to bleat how wronged they are!
39 lol – never forget ave it!
but you probably wont hear too much from me going forward……
But for regular insight on uk politics try politicalbetting.com …….
Wonderful day for Australia.
Just don’t get the Senate though – it seems to be bucking the trend of the entire election.
Anyway, I am still hopeful for Richard DN in Victoria, and won’t feel that the election is really decided until the senate vote is finalised.
In the meantime, thanks for making this entire campaign (the one that actually started in Januuary), so much more enjoyable. I have had some great laughs, and the odd moment of irritation (you know who you are Glen), all of which has spiced up an otherwise contrived and boring campaign – apart from Tony Abbott and Jackie Kelly ,who win the for Most Entertaing and Gobsmackingly Stupid Behaviour Award.
William , you are a gem.
The booth I was handing out ‘How to vote’ did not have a Green’s and only had FF for the 1st 4 hours. Same at the Booth I scrutineered. So the Green’s did not help our cause at Hinkler, which was closer than I thought.
I was delighted to see Lord Downer’s margin sliced dramatically. He is going to have to work hard next time (if he doesn’t defect to state politics instead).
this is my post-victory music tip
‘I’m never talking to you again’ by Husker-Du
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AGd53tESmmk
My heart still went out to Latham.
But remember last night’s ancient proverb -
With a Rudd in the hand, do not consider the Latham in the bush.
Consider the dead rodent at your feet.
Does the counting continue today? Can’t find an answer on the AEC site. Might be my bleary eyes though.
“my chains fell off, my heart was free”
As a “union thug”, last night was incredible.
All I need to say.
I still think Kerry Tucker is in with a chance. If the rest of the count and postals and pre-polls have the Liberals under 31% that could bring them under quota on the total count. That and BTLs can make the difference. I think ACT has a fairly high BTL count historically. I expect we’ll have to wait a couple of weeks. I hope Kerry Tucker gets in. That way the Greens can embarrass the ALP into undoing Workchoices. Also make sure they sign Kyoto.
What a classic line from Jim Middleton: “It’s as though John Howard crashed the car, and handed Peter Costello the keys.”
Morning bludgers…oh my head!
How many seats to Labor… oh my head.
Much work to do….
Oh well, tomorrow is another day.
Happy it was a good win for the lower house, disappointed over the Senate and that the extra green seat didn’t get up in the ACT.
Gary Humphries was popular with older age groups, the “grey vote”, from his years in local politics.
The Senate falls on quotas, (I think) and with only 2 Senate seats, they only need to get a third of the vote, which is about what Liberals get in the ACT generally with a rough 60/30 Labor/Liberal split. The green Senate candidate we were hoping would oust the Liberal, actually needed to steal votes from the existing Liberal support base.
There was still around 2% to Labor, but that swing was supposed to go to Greens – such Labor safe seats, didnt need the extra swing.
As for cutting the public service, well thats an age-group thing, and a time-in-service thing, and where-in-service thing. Every change of govt does that, but for those of us older pubes, who have been through such changes, we *know* that the Coalition are far more vicious and politicised and scary than Labor.
Labor only get rid of the dead wood of the ‘old guard’ (some of whom have already cut-and-run in these last weeks anyway).
many older pubes, in line policy portfolio agencies (not the administrative ones), have been waiting a long time to actually start doing *real* work again – ie start working on sensible policies, programs etc in health, education, transport, communications etc – to rebuild neglected and deteriorated infrastructure and services.
Younger age-groups, with less service time, knowing no different, are terrified. They’ll learn in time, it aint so scary
The rest of the Labor support in the ACT, I think comes from the rather large and growing private sector. Coalition govts tend to really punish the city and its micro-economy. Some of us who lived through the smashing of the city’s microeconomy in 96-98 remember!. Howard’s refusal to live in the Lodge, is just an outward ‘F*ck You’ symbol of that, and it got worse when we shifted to a Labor ACT govt. Local businesses, even major companies with their head offices located here have been pissed off.
Hey William, our 87 seats isn’t looking all that shabby at the moment.
Forde is interesting. I said a couple of days ago that it may be a possible ALP gain, given that it was a three-cornered contest, with both the ALP and Nationals running candidates. With a candidate having the aesthetic appeal of the National’s Hajnal Ban (http://www.hajnalban.com.au/), surely some votes would have gone her way. Anyone know whether this split the conservative vote and delivered the ALP victory?
I didn’t place any monetary bets (more fool me), but I still have something to collect on:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/507?cp=all
42
Just Me Says:
July 14th, 2007 at 3:30 am
Steven Kaye Says:
“Simply put, a booming economy combined with a popular PM will see the Government re-elected. Mark my words, kiddies.”
Bookmarked for future reference. Question is, if your bold prediction is wrong, do you have sufficient humility and decency to turn up here and face psephological reckoning?
Well, do you?
128
Steven Kaye Says:
July 15th, 2007 at 2:19 am
Just Me asked of me the following: “Question is, if your bold prediction is wrong, do you have sufficient humility and decency to turn up here and face psephological reckoning?
Well, do you?”
Of course I do. Do you?
Hello? Steven? Where are you?
Yeah, petty and immature of me, I know.
But damn it feels good.
••••••••••••••••••••
37
Geepee Says:
I got $700 on Maxine @ $3.65 months ago.
Now that’s a nice bonus. Spend it wisely. Or don’t.
disasterboy: the problem with the large proportion of BTLs in the ACT is they’re not going to do the Greens any good at all; since Humphries won’t get a brass razoo above the line, anything below the line that gets to him is a lost vote for the Greens. So Humphries would need to drop not just fractionally below a quota, but significantly below it, to lose. Although I predicted Humphries to win despite the widespread belief he would go, I am still not calling ACT Senate – the Greens improved their position in Tasmania on postal votes in 2004 and I do not assume that it cannot happen again.
Jen #45 – the Senate isn’t bucking the trend. It’s just that 53-47 is enough of a majority to win lots of lower house seats, but in reality it’s not that different from 50-50. 53-47 always divides the seats 3-3.
I just read one of Grattan’s articles
Michelle Grattan
And if Costello does take the leadership he’s going to have a very big problem: Namely that he can no longer call on Treasury – he needs to do the work himself.
59
Kevin Bonham
What you say makes sense to me, except for Liberal BTLs that start with their lower candidate(s) in the group. I don’t expect many of them, so they don’t really count.
disasterboy: Unfortunately, Humphries is back. He’s already got the necessary quota.
I have to say that I’m a bit bemused by these results. The Greens actually did really well in the ACT, lifting their primary vote quite substantially (pretty much a best-case scenario IMHO), and in line with the Senate polls that had Tucker winning. What I didn’t see coming is the surprisingly low Labor vote – Kate Lundy’s only polled about the same as in 2004, and Humphries hasn’t dropped much. I’d have expected that to be much higher, thus taking down Humphries’ primaries and passing surplus preferences onto the Greens, but it didn’t eventuate.
My guess at this point would be that the pledge to slash the public service might be the cause, because I simply can’t see any reason why the swing to Labor was lower than anywhere else in the country at a time when the Liberals are badly on the nose here.
Actually, the Coalition didn’t do particularly well in the senate this time around – they got three seats fewer than Labor+Greens.
The problem is that they did spectacularly well in the senate last election, so the six-yearly elections are going to leave us with a Howard/Latham legacy in the Senate for another three years.
The Greens can’t ever hold the BOP the way the Democrats used to – in the Senate they are effectively to Labor what the Nationals are to the Coalition, since most people who vote Green would otherwise vote Labor. So in a 50:50 TPP election I would expect equal numbers in the senate for Green+Labor and Liberal+National+possible FF/CDP/other right-wing minors.
The end of the Democrats in this election was entirely expected but still entirely depressing.
William Bowe
Did you get the greenie?
If you run short, you know my addy.
Great site and I thank all that contribute.
To help clear the hangover. A little bit of analysis on average swing in different types of seats
Seat Average Swing (%)
Safe ALP seats (>5%) 4.7
Marginal ALP (<5%) 4.9
Marginal Lib (Tier I) (<5%) 5.3
Marginal Lib (Tier II) (10%) 5.1
There might be a more pronouced effect if you control for state effects. But, on there numbes there is not a lot of evidence that the swings were different in the marginals.
mmm tables don’t post so well. I’ll try again
Safe ALP seats (>5%) ——– 4.7
Marginal ALP (<5%) ———–4.9
Marginal Lib (Tier I) (<5%)—–5.3
Marginal Lib (Tier II) (10%) ———— 5.1
Still not right
Safe ALP ——- 4.7
Marginal ALP — 4.9
Tier I Lib/Nat—-5.3
Tier II Lib/Nat—6.2
Safe Lib/Nat —5.1
i’m waiting for the ‘jilted lover’ to come on at 9am (here in sunny Griffith!)
So which state government will be the first to fall?
So John Hewson got it right after all: Howard has to be carried out of Kirribili House in a CAGE
Good riddance! I might as well throw in a walking stick for him as a departure gift.
Good riddance, indeed
the one with a state liberal exec that can get its act together.
disasterboy: yep, those that are BTL for the other Liberal candidate can indeed leak against Humphries. However, she probably won’t have more than 1000 votes and he would be unlucky to lose anything over 100 or so out of that.
If he drops below a quota as postals are included I’ll rig up a BTL calculator spreadsheet (as I did with Milne vs Petrusma for Tassie in 2004) to follow roughly what proportion of the other BTLs he needs to get elected. I don’t expect that this will happen, but who knows?
Rebecca: Humphries only has a provisional quota based on the votes counted so far. As more votes go in, the quota rises, so if, once prepolls and postals are added, his percentage of the vote drops, he can still slip below a quota (and, in theory, lose if he goes down far enough).
Another pretty disappointing Senate result for the Greens the way things are looking at the moment. I cautioned that they would not get the swag some were predicting, but I expected four or five and it looks like they only won three.
Does anybody know what this means:
The national two-party preferred swing to Labor of 6.3per cent was the second-largest since World War II, bettered only by Gough Whitlam in 1975. Labor looked certain to secure 86 of the 150 House of Representative seats and hoped for 90 – a gain of at least 30 seats.
It’s from here
Surely she means AGAINST whitlam. Ye Gods.
Interesting figures Albert F.
So with a TPP of 53.4 (as just reported on Insiders), this is the largest Labor TPP in history. I was informed that the swing under Fraser was larger – but does this mean that this majority is now “swing-proof” through the next election? Has there been enough of a movement of the pendulum to keep it on the Left-of-Centre for six years?
And, do we know how many Labor seats are owed to Greens preferences?
Ha! where’s paul kelly…. not on insiders…. hahaha.
Geez, Andrew Bolt has been on the road to Damascus, he made a lot of sense this morning.
Poor old Dolly, he is on his way to resigning, that much was obvious from his responses this morning, oh well, back to the family pile, bloody good riddance too!
Loks like Maxine has secured Bennelong inlatest counting http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-13745-105.htm move by 1% on 2PP overnight
Where does this result leave Gerard Henderson who was not prepared to put forward a prediction, except that no one would take any noticed of the polls in future. I think the polls have done well?
Tears of joy rolled down my face last night (couldn’t help hit) @ Suncorp. It doesn’t get any better than this. Kjin with respect to Wayne Goss I shook hands with him last night & told him “I got share’s in Ausenco & I love it” – he laughed. He’s on the board.
For those who don’t know Ausenco is a engineering based in Brisbane that has up to $10 billion of current & future work set for the next 5 years world wide. I bought in the day after it listed in May 2006 – ($1) next day $1.47. On Monday 19th it reached a high of $16.11. Its gone down since then on share market trend but its been a solid above average performer & just powers onwards & upwards.
The evil dwarf is DEAD & so is his government. To day is a beautiful day & I can rest. Thank you all.
OH GEEUZZ I was wanting to go to 53.4 but thought Id stick with 53.7!!
We’re now in uncharted waters, watching Howard concede last night I couldn’t believe it was happening.
aussieguru01. oh what a night! brilliant.
So how about the purportedly “Christian” microparties!
CDP & FF both lost Senate votes.
Bucking the trend:
Family First 0.59% increased +0.03% in NSW. CDP lost more than that, there.
Family First 2.61% increased +0.73% in Vic: benefits of Steve Fielding?
Christian Democrats ran in Queensland (not having ran there last time). FF lost more than CDP’s 0.24%
Christian Democrats ran in SA, as in Queensland FF lost more than CDP’s 0.14%
In the HoR CDP picked up slightly. I have not checked but they may have just run more candidates than last time. FF drop by even less than CDP picked up.
FF did (from a dodgy count on my part) get over 4% in the HoR in 17 seats. Thats more money than getting just over 4% in the Senate in WA. Not bad for a net drop in vote.
On a separate note.
I expect Adam Carr will analyse the Australian Democrats vote in absorbing detail
A little confused guys – is Maxne in? When will we know for sure? When can we open the bottle of bubbles?
A bigger swing than 96 and almost identical TPP. Perhaps there were some baseball bats out there after all …
just a little clarity pls
79, razz, I am getting more optimistic about my $100 on maxine as the day goes on, nice margin now.
Morning bludgers. Nursing a monster hangover. Some observartions (apologies if they were made on last night’s threads.)
1. The myth of the marginal seat campaigning needs to be put to rest for all time. Like I tried to explain to the nervous nellies – and weren’t there a few of those after Galaxy and newspoll? – if you get 52%, you win big.
2. Maxine McKew is a star. Whoever had the idea to put her in Bennelong is a genius.
3. Big, big thanks to Jackie Kelly. Her “it was just like a chaser stunt” interview cost the PM his seat. Congratulations Jackie. You’ve made history.
4. Tony Jones is a c*nt. He should be strung up by his thumbs.
Paul Kelly gave great commentary on insiders
Spiro
Why tony Jones???
Ditto Gerr… this election has been a fine result for Australians and goes a fair way to restoring my faith in the public after ‘04.
The absolute rejection of John Howard, with him looking likely to lose his own seat is a rejection of the race-based politics he has employed since his successful Tampa ‘01 election. We can thank Jackie Kelly for something at least…
I look forward to analysis from right-wing pundits of where it all went wrong for them…
Spiros. what prompted point 4?
gerr. he hasn’t shown up the QLD version yet. Jim Middleton did the opening overview.
Saw a post earlier saying that our government would now be cold-shouldered by the Village Idiot. Oh good, does that mean that they wont expect any more of our young men and women to go and die in their filthy greed driven wars of opportunism. BTW, if the Democrats ever get any balls, they will impeach the Idiot and the Prince of Darkness Cheney anyway soon.
If costello was leader the loss would probaly have been greater, however this is a great victory for all Australians and the direction of Australia has now been altered for the better, it will take time for the new Government to bring about changes, however it is important that the LNP extreme policy direction has now come to a screeching halt with the new ALP Government able to now steer the country in a new direction.
We will still have to live and reap what JWH has sowed but at least his sowing has come to an end and Rudd can now start sowing new seeds to alter the future of Australia.
WB:
Thankyou for the this site, it is credit to you, I appreciate all your hard work that has made this site a great success.
Sarah, Bennelong has moved overnight. Now up to 5.97% swing – should be enough to do it, 51.84 of the vote. Moneys will be paid out with the declaration from the AEC of the winner – don’t know when that will happen.
Can’t really think of anythng much to say……
a) You better believe it.
b) This is one for the non-believers.
c) We’re back
d) All of the above.
And I hope we’re charging market rates for Kirribillie House from this morning. Like to see the Rattus family at Centrelink looking for emergency rental assistance on Monday morning, ‘What do you mean my $100K+ pension disqualifies me!’
Bolt on Insiders was very interesting. He was making a case for Turnbull to be Op. leader and couched it in the need for the Libs to get back to their small L liberal progressive background. If he thought that was so important then why didn’t he (and the Lib progressives) speak out on Hansonism, Tampa, Siev X, Rau etc. They might be getting their epiphany now but it’s a bit late for the party.
Really? Middleman? Ok, I came in late, is downer being interviewd?
Thanx Chino just wasnt sure how long until we knew about Max for sure – great win last night (musta been our outfits that did it!)
Gerr. he’s on right now.
Swan has also pulled back for Labor and they are now leading.
It’s quite possible WA may break even for the ALP (on seats).
best insiders for a long time today – Bolt looking objectively and having a real debate of ideas with Mega and Lenore. Talking Pictures great as well – the accuracy of the cartoonists is in no doubt!
Oh so we are going to be given the cold shoulder by George W?
There’s a downside?
Im suprised W is still there (in body anyway)
dolly is really deflated. reckons they only lost cause people just wanted a change, like they dont think any deeper. in denial.
Gee I wish Id taped Insiders and Sunday this morning.
Are they repeated? Are they on net?
not for long now for the village idiot
insiders is on ABC radio [news radio] at 11
So which Poll was Closest? Morgan?
Thanks Chino
chino, I think we have about a fortnight before the AEC declares.
I generally can’t stand talking pictures, but this morning’s had one particularly hilarious moment:
Mike Bowers: Bill, what will you miss about drawing John Howard?
Bill Leak: (pauses) Nothing
113
Dan Says:
November 25th, 2007 at 10:23 am
I generally can’t stand talking pictures, but this morning’s had one particularly hilarious moment:
Mike Bowers: Bill, what will you miss about drawing John Howard?
Bill Leak: (pauses) Nothing
I was ROFL!!!
Basil Fawlty – that is going to be an excruciating wait for those of us with some roubles riding on it……….
middle man 93
when he asked Nicole Cornes and asked her whether she was relieved that she didn’t win.
Sub text: “admit you’re a bimbo who would have been out your depth as a member of parliament”.
73
Kevin Bonham Says:
Thanks, I’ll keep checking the ACT count. But I am travelling at the mo’.
I don’t think the vote is that disappointing for The Greens, theres been a enough elections now, where pollsters Upperhouse figures have overstated the Greens vote. (I remember a time when they understated them or ignored them, but hey) Its still growing steadily. Still might get 4 Senators this round.
Who knows when the button gets pressed, possible that they get none. I hope they get Parliamentary Party status.
I hope there is no DD.
Dan. i cant wait to get to that bit! hour behind up here.
William can we have a why is it so speculation thread.
Just to throw the jas amoungst the wolves I am going to suggest that the ‘Mad Mark’ theorem, including the handshake from hell, so popular with fans of the former Govt is almost worthless and cannot explain the result in 2004.
Which leaves us with interest rates.
And I’ll be more troublesome by suggesting Workchoices should, in hindsight, be put significantly behind ‘cost of living’ factors.
Insiders is available online here, may have to wait for this weeks for a bit.
http://www.abc.net.au/insiders/
That was really awful of Jones, I think. What did he expect her to say “oh yes, now I can just go shopping”.
spiros. fair call then. putting yourself up for office is gutsy no matter who you are. what a turd.
Yes Gerr, on current count Morgan was extremely close on the 2PP. It appears that they were also closest on the primaries of both parties.
ACN was furthest on all counts.
except I think they may have got closest to the Coalition primaries now that I think of it.
Yeah spiros, I like Tony Jones but I thought he was pretty annoying during that Nicole interview, patronising in extremis. However, I thought she handled it very well, quite dignified.
I have to agree with Spiros at 89 re Tony Jones. Thought his interview with Nicole Cornes was utterly patronising rubbish. The way she handled it was, in my opinion fantastic though, and if she’d given a performance like that at the start of the campaign I doubt we would have heard so much crap spouted about her (such as the blind commuter story).
Agree about Tony Jones’ questioning of Cornes. My wife almost jumped through the TV and ripped his head off. I got screamed at just for being male. The phrase “sexist and patronising” was mentioned at very high volume!!
Oh how I enjoyed seeing the faces of the born to rule mob at the Rodent sendoff at the Wentworth, priceless. And never again will i have to listen to his annoying voice, or see the hideous ratwalks.
exactly
Basil. what about the howls of “nooooo” when he said he might not win Bennelong. hilarious. so pained!
God, they are so pathetic, see how they cope with 12 years in opposition, can I buy shares in a cyanide factory?
As a Bennelong ALP supporter, that made me smile. Only postal vote to be counted now and Maxine looks pretty certain for a win.
Calloo Callay, o frabjous day!
Maxine and Kevin have delivered. The nasty small-minded amoral twerp is gone! Now we can get on with being a proper country, of generous, understanding and just plain pleasant people, again. The relief is palpable, the world looks bright and new.
The Libs have lost Mal Brough and gained Alex Hawke; nothing could illustrate the depths of their ongoing problem more starkly.
Thankyou William for allowing me to be part of the adventure for the past several months.
Cheers to all, even poor sad Glen, and pompous deluded EStJ.
Alan H
Paul Kelly has shown his noggin. Stating this is the largest Labor victory. Victory… hmmm… that sounds good!
I actually thought Mr Bolt made some very good points this morning. Made a whole lot of sense… and was glad to see George raise the heckling at the NPC earlier this week which was disgraceful.
I haven’t had as much pleasure watching Insiders in ages.
Can I just say thig – HOW GOOD DOES IT FEEL TO WIN???
Cant wait to see/hear piers and the dwarf’s take on all this. Hahaaahaa ha!
Alan, we have to admire Glen, he at least had the bottle to cop the abuse levelled at him, and ESJ for that matter. more bottle than some of the so called leaders anyway.
I had an insurance bet of $100 at 3.05 on the Liberals placed about three months ago. Decided two weeks ago that I Labor was home and hosed so I covered it (and some more) with $400 on Labor at $1.35.
Also had/have $300 (including Sportingbet free $100) on Maxine at $2.85.
Milne was on Sky News Agenda this morning – he pretty much said that the Libs made a fatal mistake by not handing over to Costello earlier. Not particularly surprising…
Amusing that Pyne is “not ruling out” a tilt at the Deputy Leader position. His lead over Handshin currently stands at 79 votes; perhaps he wants to go out like a real leader at the next election?
I also gather that Matt Price may be on the mend, does anyone here have any information, really miss Matt, and of course George Mega has emerged from this whole saga standing even higher in my estimation.
Is that so Pyne can spend even more time away from home
Wink wink nod
Basil, I’ve heard that his tumours are in fact malignant unfortunately. Best wishes of course.
Swing – did Milne have msgs of the long term opposition prospects for Costello along the same lines as the bolter or was he just playing the blame game?
Hi guys
We need to wait until counting starts again, does anyone know when that is?
Well. A shock. Not the result, per se, but the magnitude of the swing and the influence in Queensland. Not a lot of polling was indicating this level of swing and outside Brisbane too.
Senate
Well, I am quietly chomping on an old straw hat here as Jeff Buchanan is shell-shocked about not securing a senate seat for FFP. However, the fact that we have a two-party split in NSW, QLD and VIC just shows that this election was a two horse race, very presidential, and that the minor parties suffered:
Dems: Gorn. No surprises.
FFP: Some minor gains in 2 states but drops elsewhere. About .3% down Nationally
Greens: up .6% on last count. However, this should be construed as a poor result. Climate Change has rated the third most important issue in this campaign and the Greens harvested a sizeable chunk of the Dems. If this is subtracted from the Greens total, then there is a slight net loss to the Greens as the majors have some CC platforms now.
ONP: Dead.
Pauline: Alive and squirming but off her 2004 total.
The big factor, however, is Xenophon and Steve Fielding with the Senate balance of power. This will be a powerful filter and, if as Gillard claims, the ALP won’t negotiate on IR, then could trigger a DD. This would then entirely be a minor party election. No one would want Labor with such an overwhelming HOR majority and a senate majority and no one wants to see a coalition dominated senate blocking supply.
I heard that they dont count on Sundays…….
Ball, 2010 I think
Sarah,
Milne wasn’t as negative as Bolt about the long term Coalition prospects. But he did say now it is time for the Liberals to assess whether they need Costello atm, as he may be perceived as being too connected to the Howard era.
I guess we’re going to have to wait a few days before we get any hard hitting insights of the future directions of the Liberal party. At this stage, though, it still looks likely that Costello will be elected leader.
Electing Costello leader will be the worst thing they can do. He’s associated with the past, with Howard, with WorkChoices. They would be far smarter to look to Turnball for a completely new direction.
Shouldn’t there be a “Photo Finish: Sturt” thread?
I’d support a Downer/Pyne ticket leadership ticket
meltown in the chijoff house
“Mrs Chijoff’s husband, Greg, has quit the Liberal Party in disgrace and his wife does not seem to know what has happened to him. “I haven’t spoken to him today and I don’t know where he is,” she said before being driven away.”
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/from-jesters-to-brides-we-have-our-say/2007/11/24/1195753371193.html
Who in the coalition could we award the “Comical Ali” award too, as in “what american tanks, I cant see any american tanks here”.
KT. i didnt think that sort of ‘ticket’ was lawful in this country yet.
Swing – elected leader to an imploding party I think. If Turnbull is smart, he will let Costello shovel the shit for a while and contest after Costello looses at the next election. Hard for the libs with the amazing fresh talent elected into the ALP and so, so exciting for us!
I woke this morning, so excited about the future, opportunities and the possibility that I could be proud of the country I was born in…
KT, tee hee
150
Basil Fawlty Says:
November 25th, 2007 at 10:45 am
Ball, 2010 I think
I meant when does the counting for the new senate start, because it hasn’t finished yet.
I think they start tomorrow.
Sarah, my estimate is for 12 weeks at the most before a spill.
I wonder if now the media in this country will start weaning themselves off the pollsters, none of whom covered themselves with glory this year. Remember all those polls that got you Lefties all orgasmic, the ones with Labor’s primary vote in the high 40s or low 50s? So what did it turn out to be?
43.5%.
Pretty paltry, actually, for an allegedly fresh new leader allegedly sweeping aside an allegedly tired old regime. I’d advise Labor not to get too carried away.
Meanwhile, John Howard was up and about today on his usual morning walk. And he can leave politics with his held high, as the second-longest serving and best PM, and having left Australia in immeasurably better shape than in 1996. He can now enjoy retired life as a new grandfather, soothed of course by the millions his political career has earned him.
Lets just hope this puke-inducing moral and intellectual slug Krudd and his band of retards and criminals don’t stuff things up too badly.
Bennelong in the bag for Maxine. About 5,000 postal votes to count. Howard needs 2,700 more votes than Maxine or about 75-80% of all postal votes which looks to be impossible.
Howard emerges for morning walk
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2007/11/25/1195925651995.html
I can’t wait for Mr Howard to have the traditional handing over of the keys to The Lodge.
I want to thank Jackie Kelly and friends for acting true to type. What happened in Lindsay gives future historians a hook to analyse the divisive thrust of Howard’s tenure. His dog whistle politics will not be forgotten
Chino – Downer was starting to split at the seams a little this morning and I am sure it hasn’t even started to sink in. Someone who is talented enough to fit two feet in their mouths (Abbot?) might even give us some pearls of soundbites before the weeks end (methinks)
Wooohooooo! Last night was fun. Can’t remember how many times I said “f#*k off Howard” to my TV screen.
Now who were the doubting Thomases who warned against reading too much in to the exit poll yesterday?
Another disappointing night for the greens, again they have spent the entire election campaign predicting great things, only to fall dramatically short, if they didn’t talk themselves up so much (or rather if Bob Brown didnt) this could be considered a good night for them!
Steven Kaye, The Liberal Party recorded their lowest 2PP in history.
Mr Howard lost his seat, the second sitting PM in history to do so.
This election loss is worse than the loss in ‘04 for Mr Latham.
In that respect Australia has rejected Howard moreso than they did Latham.
Swing Lowe, Milne doesn’t ‘get it’ either. Costello is not popular, was not popular, and never will be popular, even more so now that the ship has hit the iceberg and all but a few were saved.
To try and claim captain’s rights after standing on the bridge through that disaster is not going to be seen as ‘new leadership’ (hmm, that’s a nice sounding slogan, maybe they should try it).
Maybe for the immediate period while they’re still in shell shock, but as they recover what senses they have left, Costello will be seen as political baggage. All this huff and puff about his great experience, blah blah, will count for nothing when they realise he is also a corpse, and the stinking remains will be unceremoniously dumped.
Thought Tony Jones on the ABC was quite boorish to all the losing candidates. He seemed to be equally rude to both sides, but surpassed himself when speaking to Cornes attempting “gotcha” questions ad nauseum.
The main ABC panel of Green, O’Brien, Gillard and Minchin were excellent. Minchin’s professionalism and grace under fire was remarkable.
Senate overall votes for major condenders..
Australian Labor Party 3,993,501 40.74% +5.72%
Liberal/Nationals 2,954,642 30.14% -4.09%
Liberal 867,252 8.85% -1.55% (the AEC have these seperated for some reason)
The Greens 884,252 9.02% +1.35%
Democrats 124,175 1.27% -0.82%
Family First 162,773 1.66% -0.10%
CDP Christian Party 92,198 0.94% -0.24%
DLP – Democratic Labor Party 86,732 0.88% +0.39%
Pauline 107,217 1.09% +1.09%
Independants (mostly to Nick Xenaphon) 152,789 1.56% +0.05%
Look at moiy Steven Kaye, look at moiy ! I have one thing to say to you Steven Kaye—————BULL BUTTER !!!
SK. So gracious. Mate more concerning for the Libs is the joint primary vote of Labor and the Greens. Thats not a shift to the centre or the right.
Suffer in your jocks cry baby.
where are you guys geting your updates on Swan?
Ladies and gentlemen, let me present Steven Kaye, the sore loser!
Steven, you’re exactly the kind of reason why the Liberals lost. I hope the new Liberal party moulds itself around people like you, because it will ensure they remain in opposition for years to come.
Turnball-Minchin team would be the only chance for the Libs to rebuild. Costello has become a liability to the party and will never be PM.
161
John Howard has left in a disgrace, being the 2nd prime minister ever to lose his own seat. And where did these polls say there was going to be a 50% primary for labor?
After volunteering for Darren Cheeseman in Corangamite over the last 3 months, I have to say that I am extremely happy, and still a little incredulous, that we managed to achieve a 7.23% swing to Labor (with the help of Green’s preferences).
This result in Corangamite, and also in Deakin in fantastic in terms of outdoing the state-wide swing. I am so proud of all of the people who have worked to achieve such a fantastic result here in Victoria, and I look forward to hearing our new MP’s maiden speeches on News Radio.
I say union, you say…
ABC Insiders is being re-broadcast on ABC NewsRadio now.
BBD, you can get updates on Swan at the AEC website.
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-13745-247.htm
159, my response was said firmly tongue in cheek, sorry for any confusion.
Aaah. Dolly admits that he has been lying to the public all year about the coalition’s reelection prospects and doesn’t know if he’ll serve out his full term. Add one more to the ALP majority when that happens.
I don’t usually make comments to the various trolls that appear here, as their cretinous remarks speak for themselves, but Steven Kaye, for you I will make one exception.
The overwhelming majority of Australians have voted out John Howard and his government with an historic victory to Labor and Kevin Rudd.
You, on the other hand, have been nothing but wrong on all counts, and as a personal observation, a nasty little toe-rag as well.
He he SK….u ain’t seen nothing yet, cos now we’re in, we’re gunna change EVERYTHING!!!!!
Uh, Steven Kaye. Got anything to say, re #58?
Just Me
The worst thing was Downer saying a State Parliament would be below him.
would it comfort Steven to know that they not only lost government they lost a refferendum on the role of unions in the workplace and in politics PLUS a referendum on wall-to-wall Labor.
In case any libs want to suggest otherwise I have 10km of bunting that says that was what the vote was about and it has Lib/Nat authorisation all over it.
I may have to say this more than once. I eat my own words. I was wrong and I accept that. I didn’t expect QLD to swing, the other yes but not QLD. So how many people are still going to be around now that the election is over?
I’m a Sydneysider, and know nothing about Nick Xenophon. Can someone tell me how likely he is to vote with the Libs in the Senate? Does anyone have a sense of whether he’s pro or anti-Workchoices? Is he is a rightwing religious wingnut, or what?
The bloodletting that will inevitably occur in the next few weeks is going to be particularly engrossing. I might not even be too disappointed to see the rodent win in Bennelong just so he can hang around for three years to watch the party he led implode. Watching Downer on Insiders this morning was VERY FUNNY. Bolt was right when he said Downer just didn’t get it. The way the Libs allowed standards of public administration to lapse over the last 11 years just proves they had no idea how to govern. The Australian people trusted Howard with the economy but they have spoken loudly and clearly that the economy is not everything. They expect much more integrity from their politicians. We are all winners out of this process whether we appreciate it or not.
I’ve got some brickbats and bouquets for the campaign.
Brickbats-
Overington complete disgrace to her profession. Might have to feel sorry for her as I suspect she is not well though.
Shamaham-Senator Ray said it all last night when he asked viewers to compose a 500 word Shama article on the Great Howard Victory
Sol Lebovic- Contorted himself up his own a*sehole trying to explain how the “preferred economic manager” could lose the poll. Unable to understand that there is more to life than greed.
Bouquets-
The people labelled “so-called experts” by the MSM, ie Possum, Lambert, William, Jackman etc. In the face of vitriol from the MSM and sometimes from Labor pessimists they proved that reason will always beat emotion and spin.
All the bludgers who kept putting their money on Maxine.
Why are you guys giving SK the honour of responding to him, he is an irrelevance.
‘I thought we would lose’: Downer
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/25/2100474.htm
Mr Kaye.
For a lesson in how to lose graciously, see Stephen @ 188.
Thank you Stephen.
192
Basil Fawlty
Cause it is fun.
Betamax Says:
November 25th, 2007 at 11:04 am
I’m a Sydneysider, and know nothing about Nick Xenophon. Can someone tell me how likely he is to vote with the Libs in the Senate? Does anyone have a sense of whether he’s pro or anti-Workchoices? Is he is a rightwing religious wingnut, or what?
Hes a more labor guy. He’ll go with labor on workchoices etc.
Betamax, he will be moderate on industrial relations and will likely fall somewhere between Labor and the Coalition.
However he will most likely support the ALP, with some sort of token amendments for ’small business’ that he can do media releases on.
Insiders repeats on ABC Newsradio at 11:00am Sydney time. It’s AM630 in Sydney
Having been involved as a volunteer with the Sturt campaign, its hard not to get caught up thinking about what might have been with a few more votes.
So close …..
I could well be wrong here, but I suspect if Pyne keeps on pushing for leadership opportunities, details of his personal indescretions may well be leaked by the Right. Now that they have lost government, I’d have thought all discipline within the party will be put aside for a time, & those who are not liked or are a threat will be eliminated.
Xenophon is anti-WorkChoices. He is pretty centrist over all, he deals with each issue as it comes.
Steven Kaye,
nice point.
Just remember, when you walk down the street, the majority of the people are dumb enough to not think what you think.
Good luck with that, it’s not easy.
Has anyone seen the Great Possum’s GIANT KILLER Howardista 5000
ROFL
http://possumcomitatus.files.wordpress.com/2007/11/the-howardista5000.jpg
Triffid. what sort of indescretions?
Steven K, I strongly suggest you seek counselling. John Howard, and his nasty, small minded, divisive claque have been utterly rejected. That includes you. Please take you bilious spew, and rank flatus elsewhere.
cheers,
Alan H
middle man… if you trawl through Andrew Landeryou’s blog you will probably find something of interest.
I think it’s above us all here to rehash gossip and innuendo.
Yay, won some good money there. I had $1200 about a month ago, but chickened out when the polls started picking up a smaller swing in NSW. Will still pick up about $450 on her though. Thanks Max!!! An official labor legend.
La Trobe falls:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22818152-29277,00.html
The real challenge now is for the Liberals to reinvent as a true Liberal, or even as a true Conservative party. They have allowed the infiltration of ratbag neo-cons, religious wingnuts and other assorted fascist baggage. They have now paid the price. We do indeed live in interesting times.
We probably need a bennelong thread…
One item of note, Yusuf Tahir – the unknown out-of-towner who did little more than put his name on the ballot paper – has so far polled 60% more votes than the Citizens Electoral Council (79 to 49) in bennelong. You have to wonder why CEC bother wasting their time and money. They’d be better off electorally not being a party.
Triffid and Basil – pls spell out what Pyne is up to?
Sarah,
Some sexual indiscretions that have never been proven and so shouldn’t be repeated on this site…
What a mean-minded vindictive poor loser Steven K is.
But then, he’s a Lib.
What would you expect?
79 votes in Sturt now!!!
Libs will never win with Cossie and they know it. It’s only a atter of time before they reinvent themselves behind Turnbull. And what do we call them not that tey’re not Team Rodent? Team Smirk doesnt work, coz there aint much smirking now.
Bolt is amazingly rational on Insiders.
Swing – comprehendo. Mucho gracias.
Mmmmmm…….waking up….too much sparkling shiraz…..memories of lots of people….orange balloons….hugging. What was it? Oh riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight. WE WON!!! No we didn’t win, WE THRASHED THEM!
And this morning, as bright sunshine washes over my beautiful city, my beautiful country, I feel I can stall tall again. Our chance now to move forward with compassion and regard for all our fellow citizens – and those who wish to be.
Now, about that poll.
The Tories are in complete denial. Dolly looked like he wish he had accepted that Jim Jones Kool-aid drink offered to him last night after all. They just don’t get it, and until they do get it the ‘coalition of swill’ will languish in the wilderness – which, I must admit, is not such a bad thought.
Eleven months ago, I put $3,000 on Rudd to win when the ALP was at $2.55. I was encouraged to do this by Steven Kaye and Nostradamus. I would just like to take this opportunity to thank them both for their encouragement and their personal venom.
“The Australian people will never vote John Howard out of office. never.”
How sweet it is, Steven.
And, to cap off a beautiful result, the future of the Liberal Party belongs to Uglies like Alex Hawke and Steven himself.
I think the expression “hoo hah” pretty well sums it up.
Pyne losing would be the second layer of icing on an already well iced cake.
It’s funny isn’t it. Howard talked about how good the liberal party has been to him, but what did he do to it?
His greed and lust for power has left it decimated, a total trainwreck.
Who do they have to lead them… Costello? He is already essentially a already a PM election loser.
Turnballs might be their best hope, but geez, if that’s the best they got they are in trouble.
All in all though, they will be in the wilderness for the next 3 years, and I suspect many more.
A fitting outcome for a mean spirited, ruthless party. I noticed on insiders they mentioned the mean spirit of the Liberals (ie heckling female reporters at the press club), and it’s so good that that kind of nastiness got the boot.
On the flip side, hope Kev now gets on with the job of fixing this country. I must say its like their is a new vibe to the place, and I like it a lot!
Nice little bundle there, Snakeboy. Enjoy it.
Geepee #212,
I’ve run online into a number of LP’ers who have been courteous in defeat. The best, in my opinion, of conservatism – true courtesy to all, combined with a genuine (if somewhat paternalistic) caring for the electorate.
I hope that the LP can change to represent more people like these, and less like Alex Hawke, Stephen Kaye and other rabid neo-conservatives.
Hey Billy
Hope things a well for ya.
There’s something going on she said I can feel it in the air.
As per the election- meh.
Your friend, Tom – Melbourne
Tabitha needs to show up for one last couplet.
#177 –
“And where did these polls say there was going to be a 50% primary for labor?”
Just taking Newspoll as an example, they had 21 polls this year that had Labor’s primary vote at 47% or above, and 6 of them had them at 50% or above. There were plenty of Nielsens and Morgan that recorded similar results.
I repeat, there’s something drastically wrong with the methodology of these polls when they result in such an inflated Labor vote.
#194 –
“For a lesson in how to lose graciously, see Stephen @ 188.”
Lose graciously, when the result is such a contemptible act of national cretinism? Not on your life!
222, yes I was so impressed by Mal Brough last night, gracious and good humoured in very distressing circumstances for him, top marks.
What I want to see now is inquiries into things like:
Iraq
David Hicks
AWB
Haneef
Deportation of Aussies
Tampa affair
Regional infrastructure corruption
etc etc
The LNP may have lost, but they have many questions to answer, and now that they have been dislodged from power perhaps the truth can come out.
Congradulation to the Australian Labor Party
A great victory for all of its supporters
Our best years are ahead of us
The Australian people are ALWAYS RIGHT
Kirrabilli Removals -
Didn’t expect to see you here this morning. Don’t you have a job scheduled for this morning? Or did Hyacinth ring to delay you to this arvo?
Basil Fawlty wanted a nomination for the Comical Ali of the campaign. Stephen Kaye appears to have put in a nomination for himself with the spin above about Labor’s primary being “only” 43.5. Stephen, if you’re reading, there were 2 left parties in this election and the other one got 7.8%.
My nomination for Comical Ali, however, is not Stephen or a poli. It’s Piers, Rupert’s pet toad. I missed him on Insiders this morning, desperately trying to pretend that Rudd hadn’t won.
Thanks Mathew @ 222
Yes, many, like EsJ. But the bile on the ABC site o’nite from Tories was extraordinary. Venom and vindictiveness come so much easier to the Tories, exp when they lose.
Latrobe to Labor
That’s “esp” when they lose
Keep that shit up, Steven Kaye, and you will be enjoying the fruits of opposition for a very long time.
Your dishonesty and bile is just sad.
Bye.
Just on Sky News
I’m thrilled about La Trobe swinging. Some of my comrades put in hard work there and I had a great time yesterday handing out HTVs in Berwick.
Marko, I reckon she has probably chained herself to the fence, cut her arm off Kirribilli.
If Liberals have this sort of arrogant attitude to the result then they won’t govern for another 20 years.
la trobe to labour………yippeee……getting sun burnt handing out htv was well worth it
Steven Kaye –
I repeat, there’s something drastically wrong with the methodology of these
(elections)
when they result in such an inflated Labor vote.
red wombat – which booth were you at?
Seems there is counting today, the AEC website just updated.
rgee what booth were you at
Its getting tighter in Sturt – Mia is only 79 votes behind on 2PP.
Come on, Mia, do it.
Berwick Lodge … the primary school
berwick lodge, mansfield street
hahahahahaha
HAHAHAHAH!!! I was the heavily tattooed guy in the YR@W tshirt. I was there from 9-12.
Sarah @ 210.
It should be said that the Pyne indescretions are only rumours (spread by the Liberal Party themselves)
So, given the jostling for positions withing the Party after defeat, if ever evidence were to come out, one would suspect it would be now.
me mark
#177 -
Lose graciously, when the result is such a contemptible act of national cretinism? Not on your life!
What an utterly contemptible lot the Libs and their followers are!! With an attitude like this is absolutely no wonder the electorate voted Howard and crew out of office.
And I’m sure SK and his ilk were first in line with “Suck It Up” and “If you don’t like it, leave the country” comments after the last three elections. Maybe time to follow _that_ advice Mr. Kaye.
hilarious! pludgers everywhere…
# 225 – Steven, it is so much fun reading your posts. Your anger and mean-spiritedness is more fun than laughing. Please, please keep it coming in spades. I’m loving it.
If I recall correctly it was Jordan and Thommo particularly who tried to dismiss exit polls out of hand… How wrong they were.
this is the page to watch
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseCloseSeats-13745-NAT.htm
like every 5 mins until it disapears in two weeks time
QUESTION
Di you guys over east see life sized Joe MacDonald and Kevin Reynolds Lib/Nat posters at your booths?
anyone now if corflute and bunting recyclable ………….boot chockers…
Thanks BBD
Maxine @ 51.84%, swing 5.87%, looks reasonably safe.
#237 -
“If Liberals have this sort of arrogant attitude to the result then they won’t govern for another 20 years.”
Oh, come on! How about a bit of honesty for a change? Like Labor ever accepted the legitimacy of John Howard’s victories – please don’t pretend you people meekly accepted your defeats with grace and dignity, because we all know how bitter and hateful you’ve all been over the last 11 years.
Anyway, now the Coalition have to hold Krudd to account. Lets see which of his grand promises he reneges on first.
SK #225,
You truly are a small-minded slug. Do you really believe that anytime hte electorate votes for you, they are smart, and whenever they vote for the other lot, they are dumb?
What an arrogant, born-to-rule attitude. Hopefuly, public displays of that kind from Downer et al will keep your lot in Opposition for at least 10 years, until the moderates can get in again and retake the party.
BBD. nothing over here, but then again i voted at the same booth as Kev. so that might not be the best pointer.
i must admit the support of the yr@w people was incredible…..the booth i was at wasn’t a major one (last elction 2500 votes) but we had at least half a dozen there all day handing out their htv. well done guys
Democrats facing Senate wipe-out
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/24/2100365.htm
The best piece of analysis on The Insiders todays was (bolt i think) observing two key things in the finals days of the election:
1) The Libs stacked the press club lunch then heckled and intimidated journalists
2) A group of long serving Liberals hatched the idea of the racist pamphlet in Lindsay and Jackie Kelly finding in “funny”.
Both of the these point to the liberals having lost their moral compass.
This is why they hold no state or federal office.
259- Steven Kaye
You have to hold your first party meeting before that happens- does anyone know where the Libs can rent a phone box?
Looks like no greens in vic and Queensland, however its still early days.
red wombat – I’ll pass that back to Michelle, Lita and Bec. They’ll be most pleased.
Dickson still knife edge after 9% swing, ALP 50.35 tpp, I’ve got a poultice on this one.
#250 -
“And I’m sure SK and his ilk were first in line with “Suck It Up” and “If you don’t like it, leave the country” comments after the last three elections. Maybe time to follow _that_ advice Mr. Kaye.”
Hmmm, you may be right – I may just emigrate. I think I’ll move to a country led by someone with more integrity, decency and economic know-how than Krudd. Zimbabwe looks good. Maybe North Korea.
You’re obviously very upset. Why don’t you go for a long walk? Or get drunk?
You should do anything other than write things on the internet that you’ll quickly regret.
Greens are definitly in WA and TAS.
Greens probably in SA. That makes 3 new and 2 old, so 5 overall.
Isn’t Steven Kaye pathetic? Keep it up, mate, reminds us of just how sweet it is to see you lot out.
#269 – Please don’t go, Steven. Without you, I would be thousands of dollars poorer. I love having you here.
Good morning (cough)
A note on OH&S.
John Howard’s “legacy” is about to be placed at the bottom of a 1880s cess pit. The object will be tossed into the pit and various workers will cover remains with clean fill, watching at all times for toxic leakage. Mario, a concrete worker of many years experience, will then manufacture in his wheelbarrow what he calls a “strong mix …” Do not approach Mario. He is at work. The concrete will then be used to seal the pit.
Children are allowed to watch, with approved gas masks. Also, do not forget your sun screen!
OK, time to commence the new movement, Republic 2008, Paul Keating for inaugural President.
The Liberal Party became John’s toy to play with and enjoy until he broke it. Then he gave it back.
Hope Returns
‘The Great South Land can be as great as the one it could have been’
Midnight Oil
Someone asked for a conservative view on where it went wrong.
-Desire for change after a long time government (biggest factor)
-Workchoices: too much reform, too fast
-Hometown Queensland support
-Lindsay (I would not be surprised if this cost about 1-2% nationally, several seats in NSW, including Bennelong)
-I hadn’t thought of it, but now that Megalogenis mentions it, welfare to work.
Congratulations, you must all be very happy today. Obviously, today I am not, but although I don’t always believe the public get it right, they deserve the right to make that choice.
It’s quite funny – the strong ALP primary vote in NSW has probably resulted in the Nationals retaining Calare.
Labor ran dead in Calare, but still picked up 25.3% of the vote – 2% more than the independent challenger, who probably would have won on the back of Labor and Greens preferences if he had got ahead of Labor on primaries.
The same thing seemed to have also happened in Parkes.
Ah well, such is life…
264 – I think it was George M but the point is a good one, there’s a real nastiness in some sections of both parties, but the libs have really degenerated int hat regard lately.
Bolt put it best when he said you have to have a moral message, not just an economic lone.
“Hmmm, you may be right – I may just emigrate. I think I’ll move to a country led by someone with more integrity, decency and economic know-how than Krudd. Zimbabwe looks good. Maybe North Korea”
lol – SK both would suit a rigid thinking extremist sook.
OH BTW dont let the door hit you on the arse on the way out
277
the munz of mosman Says:
The Liberal Party became John’s toy to play with and enjoy until he broke it. Then he gave it back.
In fairness, he did take full responsibility for the loss in his concession speech last night.
One of the most ironically delicious parts of last night’s thumping – the largest Labor victory in Australian history – is that the kiddies will be reading all about this in Howard’s mandated year 10-11 history courses…
It’s interesting to note that Morgan, the pollster so reviled by the Uglies, got closest to the final result.
As was once before, taking account of bias, the Libs won the election!
wpc, it is a great opportunity for true liberals to build a new and decent party out of the ashes if they care to take it, otherwise they will become increasingly irrelevant. And thanks for the congrats, like you I still believe in the collective wisdom, with hindsight they made the right decision about Latham.
Actually, if the independent candidate in Parkes had gotten ahead of Labor on primaries (at this stage, they stand at IND 21.36%, LAB 25.93%), they almost certainly would have won, as the Nationals only picked up 45.88% of the primary vote.
Hmm…if only Labor had ran even more dead…
In regards to mandates and senates and what Nick Minchin said last night. Nick ( although can’t stand the guy) is right, Labor never passed their legislation so why should the Libs, serves Labor right.
Must say though Minchin was the best i have seen him last night.
One last comment, for once i thought Howards’ speech was far better than Rudds’ , Rudd to me was full of himself and was talking like he was at a Christian gathering. The ABC should not have covered it all.
Nonetheless i am pleased with this result but would have preferred the Greens to have done better.
279
wpc Says:
Someone asked for a conservative view on where it went wrong.
-Workchoices: too much reform, too fast
In all seriousness, don’t fall for the view that you just didn’t sell it properly. That would be a serious mistake.
It was the wrong kind of reform. It will never be accepted in this country. Go back to the drawing board.
283.. Yes I heard that, but I stopped believing John a long time ago.
With 5 Senators the Greens will earn official party status and take over the old Democrats Party Room that has been vacant for the past 3 years.
Betamax @ 189: Some info on Nick Xenophon
http://www.xen.net.au/html/faq.html
so long sad times
go ‘long bad times
we are rid of you at last
Howdy gay times!
Cloudy grey times
you are now a thing of the past!
happy days are here again the skies above are clear again
let’s sing a song of cheer again happy days are here again!
Altogether shout it now
There’s no one can doubt it now let’s tell the world about it now
Happy days are here again
with thanks 1932 FDRoosevelt democrats
now for their battle against mr g w bush.
@ William Bowe Says:
Tinny
SENATE ANAYLIS – READ
For the Greens to take power in the ACT the libs need to lose a OVERALL swing of 1% which is very unlikely. This is due to some ALP votes heading towards the Liberals before the greens (under 10% of them) But there still is a chance with 27% of the vote still be counted.
So was the QLD swing as big as the anti-Keating swing there in 1996?
Hi all
Love the commentary,enjoying the early christmas present. Highlights. Janette is cement, Downer thinks state politics is a toilet bowl well below him.He knew it was all over in Feb and Andrew Bolt thinks the Liberal Party itself is damaged beyond repair. Blown out of existence
Sweet victory. The repudiation of all Howard stood for. A bigger beating than keating in 1996.
SENATE ANAYLIS PART 2
Current:
Australian Labor Party 40.72%
Liberal Party 34.07%
The Greens 21.91%
Australian Democrats 1.74%
What Women Want 0.58%
Climate Change Coalition 0.53%
Liberty and Democracy Party 0.23%
Nuclear Disarmament Party 0.20%
Needed for Greens to get in: (this assumes that all the swing goes to Labor, if some goes to the greens the libs don’t need to lose as much)
Australian Labor Party 41.71%
Liberal Party 33.10%
The Greens 21.91%
Australian Democrats 1.74%
What Women Want 0.58%
Climate Change Coalition 0.53%
Liberty and Democracy Party 0.23%
Nuclear Disarmament Party 0.20%
Using Anthony Greens Calculator.
73.19% counted so far.
Always knew the QLD’s would come to the rescue….they just hate anyone south of the border, Kev and co. were a shoe-in up there.
God, just woke up and by the size of this hangover I’m assuming we won… we did right?
‘oh the pain…the pain”
1996 swing in Qld was 8.6%
Google election page not updated yet – looking forward to seeing all that blue shrivel up and wither away..
Labor did win
259- Steven Kaye
Anyway, now the Coalition have to hold Krudd to account. Lets see which of his grand promises he reneges on first
“I will consult with John Howard”
What a nice day it is today. Don’t know what it is, but something just feels good. A sense of hope and confidence I haven’t noticed in a long time.
I think I might get me one of those “Australia – Love it or Leave it” stickers for the car. To sit next to a Kevin 07 sticker.
Maybe all those who have had a win betting on the election can make a small donation for SK’s one way ticket to Pyongyang. We’ll miss your thoughtful and considerate commentary mate. Say G’Day to Kim for us.
304 JFC
hahahaha
Sounds like a lovers tiff between Newhouse and Overington. Is the investigation into Kellys Heroes still going forward. I am disappointed that 23 thousand still voted for them in Lindsay. Makes you wonder what the Libs would have to do to lose some people.I like to think that most people I know would jump ship if our local member was involved in that sort of behavior.
Workchoices to me was part of it, but i think to have a leader from Queensland helped significantly. They perhaps as a friend commented to me last night are very parochial, and i think Anna Bligh is also a great asset.
Stephen Kaye you lost and now, you are a loser. Deal with it. Anyone heard from Nostrodamus or Tabitha?
Steven Kaye,
Neither North Korea nor Zimbabwe would let you in. Even morally repugnant, extremist, ratbag regimes would draw the line with you. Afterall, they must have some standards.
Oh yeah, of course,,, my centre bet account!… I forgot…
Wow, I only been awake 10 mins and I really like today already
2007 in Qld so far swing 8.38%, so not quite as big as 96 yet
Those Senate Analyses were for ACT above.
279 Firstly I am a not a Liberal, I am a conservative. I voted for an independent in my seat, with preferences to the Nationals. I belong to a union, and I am fairly ambivalent about workchoices. My votes towards conservatives has only a little to do with economic policy.
I didn’t say they just didn’t sell it well enough, I said the changes were too quick. Any reform should have been minor, Australians don’t like sudden changes.
Just woke up – howdy everyone… didn’t get to bed until 5am – seems our good mate Steven Kaye is still hanging around – whatever the f*ck for mate?! Please, do yourself a favour and go sulk somewhere for a while, get it out of your system. Bitter and twisted doesn’t even begin to describe your situation. It may be that you work for someone in Federal Libs maybe? And now, no job for you, State or Federal (remember, “wall to wall”). But stiff upper chin old chap, and all! The Libs have kept banging on about the excellent job prospects we all have – so you’ll find a job in no time….
What a glorious day – maybe some late lunch/early dinner in a couple of hours, and just take it all in. No I-told-you-so’s from me, but I never lost hope and certainly the polls and the campaign strategies being played out never made me feel that we were not in line for a big win. William, thanks for this site and the excellent analysis. Possum, what can I see – just brilliant!
Centaur_001, you lurking around? Bugger all happened in Higgins, which was a disappointment – it was fun though
And now Alxenader Downer is telling us on the news that the best thing the Liberals can do is get behind Peter Smirk… I mean, does it get any better?
I nominate Bolt for the “most likely to improve” award in the “previously dubious journalists” category today
Steve Kaye your bad luck could not be worse. Korea and Zimbabwe return refugees and white trailer trash like you back to their country of origin. I am sure you used to support such policies in the very recent past. So there is no escape from your ruddhell. We will do you slowly mate…
chino @ 316, I agree… at the GG though, boy where to begin? Janet Achtung, Shama, Kelly? What hope?
Costello looked really chuffed last night didn’t he? My GF said “I’ve never seen him so relaxed and… likeable”. LOL. I said, well he knows Howard is finally off his back doesn’t he!
Yes chino, I did hear a rumour that he was on a road to Damascus on foreign assignment and there was this bloody great clap of thunder……….. you know the rest
Hey Laborites. I thought you guys said Rudd was going to bring the rain and break the drought. Where’s the rain? Or are we still going with Turnbull’s rain making machine?
Thanks Bennelong, for the cherry on top. EMBRUCED!!
Howard really deserved to go out with lashings of extra humiliation on top.
The Age dead tree version has gone easy on him hehe… I give you the headlines:
“Rudd romps to historic win as Howard is humiliated”;
followed by:
“Love me or loathe me, he said: We now have the people’s verdict”
And great to see that tosser Brough electorally rogered. He deserved it – what a tool. Longman has one of the highest % of single mothers in the land live – he’s been hoisted on the petard of his own putrid welfare to work measures.
just gotta post Clarke and Dawe ‘politics of fear again’ priceless julia gillard julia gillard julia gillard
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/
Politics can’t dictate the weather #321.
They’re take action on climate change though.
I drove around Bennelong last night with a huge smile on my face. SO proud to live in Bennelong.
My wife was visiting Cairns for her brother’s 50th at the same time Howard was there. She clearly outcampaigned the rodent and henceforth in Wannon will be known as the master strategist. And thankyou all for the stimulation, anguish and joy of the last six weeks. I am in your debt, William.
Ashley, I agree. It is the first time I think I have seen Costello genuinely smile. He looked like he’d had a few as well.
Hey George…Well for a start we need to find a new name for the ‘previously referred to as’ GG paper.
Early thoughts were for the not hugely funny ‘OG’ [O as in opposition].
Any bright ideas everyone? It also depends on their own road to damascus – they may see the light and become the Rudd Gazette?!!!
Well, what a great night. Still celebrating here.
I am a bit concerned about the senate though. I saw Bob Brown talking to the media last night and form what he was saying, it sounded like the Greens had done better than we find out today.
Brown also said last night that the overall Greens vote was higher in Melbourne than it was for the Libs. Not so sure about this… I haven’t read it anywhere else. I presume that he was talking about the senate? Anyone know anything about this?
How much bloody fun was last night? The live chat was fantastic and went a long way to inform our livingroom of events happening outside of the ABC. Thanks PB!
For those who missed it and the Newsradio replay (I was nursing a sore, but very happy head), it is repeated on ABC2 at 6:30am tomorrow morning.
I wish they would hurry this count up, I made a small profit on Corangamite, Leichhardt and Bennelong (after picking some duds – McMillan and Wentworth I am looking at you) but need McEwen, Herbert and Sturt to come in before baby gets new shoes!
#332-”embruced” classic LOL. Congrats Maxine. What a star!!
Sorry – I meant the Insiders replay at 331
Greens have picked up 2 definite (WA & Tas), 1 propable seat (SA) and may get one in vic and theres a possibility for ACT. Queensland and NSW nearly impossible to get any greens seats.
Steven Kaye lets get one point straight right at the outset. Labor keeps its election promises and doesn’t hive them off into core and nonccore as the Libs have over the past 12 years. If holding Labor to account is the best you can come up with then you are in for an easy but unfruitful time in opposition.
It is interesting that Rudd went to church down the road again today. It was no stunt he is always going there when in town.
Implications DO THE RUDDs TILHE ie put 10 % of there income in the plate. If they do, the minster must be on a very good wicket. The little packet made thicks with notes must be a weekly comfort. All church of England minsters in QLD must be going after the Bulimba posting
Brian Coster on The National Interest (ABC RN) says we could have a DD by this time next year. Carmen Lawrence on now.
Excepts from “A guide to being a Liberal Supporter on the morning of 25 November 2007″:
Chapter 1: Just accept it. Our leader accepted the loss with style and grace, so should we.
more to come…..
BY the way, how disappointing was the last AC Neilson figure? I can’t believe it was Morgan who was closest
What is Pyne on? In the Sunday Mail he says “Whatever way I look at it, it is a wonderful result for the Liberal Party inSturt and for me personally.” He’s up by 74 votes and had a 6.6% swing against him. What a deluded moron.
I too think Bob Brown should reign in his pre-election hype, he always tends to over-estimate Green success. But make no mistake, this is a great result for the Greens in very difficult electoral conditions. This was always going to be a Howard referendum (which he overwhelmingly lost, OH YEAH!!!!!), and many people voted Labor to get rid of the Rodent. For the Greens lower house vote to hold up and grow slightly is a great result. Almost all other parties and minors slipped back, the Nationals and Family First among them.
The Senate count is not over, but it seems the balance of power wont go to the Greens alone. They might lose Kerry Nettle, which will be a great shame. She was one of the few activists in Parliament, a brave soul not afraid to stand up for Palestinians and West Papuans, when others were too scared to touch it. Thanks Kerry, you’ll be missed. Party status, and the Democrats’ old office in the Senate, will do wonders for the Greens campaign for 2010, when the air will be clearer. This election was not about policy, which is always going to hurt a party strong on vision, but in three years, with wall-to-wall Labor and no-one else to blame, the Greens will have their long-awaited day.
321, there were major downpours/flooding in drought areas west of Brisbane yesterday, also over Brisbane dam catchments, looks as though we are close to a major break in the weather.
#334…not to mention losing Kerry Nettle, very sad about that
Just watched Insiders (had taped it).
Can I say a big thank you to the ABC for not putting Piers Ak on, and for also getting Downer to reinforce to everyone that the Libs don’t get it.
And thank you to sportingbet for the $100 free bet! Go Maxine you good thing!
Thanks Ball Lightning. So what is the likely total number of Greens seats? I am finding it difficult to get information on this as it is all focused on the two major parties.
Speaking of Albrecht-stein,
just imagine the next meeting of the ABC Board.
Good luck with that, Keith and Janet.
A double dissolution by next year? I heard that too. I wonder if the new leader of the Liberals will be so bold as to attempt to blcok ALP legislation with the election result so clear. Also, self preservation is a very powerful motivator. The Senators may just tell the leader they are not prepared to frustrate the Govcernment’s legislative program. Rudd is NOT Whitlam.
Has newspoll lost cred?
The Senate with no upsets will be:
Liberal/National Coalition 37
Australian Labor Party 32
The Greens 5 (will go with labor on many things)
Family First 1 (will go with liberals on many things)
Others 1 (will go with labor on many things)
Greens may get 1 more possibly.
Strange….woke up this morning and the world was still here…The sun rose and there was no 4 horsemen of the Apocalypse (Union Bosses) riding down the street….
I don’t understand. John told me the country would change. I feel cheated
Noocat 329
He would have been talking about the Lower House seat of Melbourne
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/guide/melb.htm
Greens are slightly behind the Liberals on primaries as I type this, but may have been ahead at the time.
5 overall. With a possible 2 more. Both not to likely.
I also have to say how happy I am the Democrats are gone as of July 1st. They have lost all their principles since Chippy retired.
264
Spot on Albert F – the heckling of anyone asking questions about Lindsay of Howard was disgusting. Those hecklers don’t even have enough perspective of their world to realise that sort of thing should be forcing them to seriously question their own beliefs – not tacitly supporting the action. It’s like Ruddock – he didn’t even ask who those expelled were BECAUSE HE DIDN’T WANT TO KNOW.
208 Basil
Conservative Liberals…
I actually don’t think there are any in this country….that are prepared to become politicians, and I think that’s the real problem. As of this morning the shining conservative liberal light is Andrew Bolt. Longer term, I think liberalism is like the plight of the greens – in the same way that environmental issues have moved into the mainstream, small ‘l’ liberalism is also accepted to such an extent that the ALP now fits into the circle too. It’s not a big enough differentiator on it’s own to base a party around. I think the Lib fringe will rise further in the short term, and that’s not good for anyone.
Betting
This election is the first thing I’ve ever bet on in my life. Like a novice better all my eggs are in one basket. They’re not home yet, but look likely. It appears from the admissions here so far that I’m a tad more committed….
I was actually surprised by how little it took to move a market, and I think some pretty shonky things were going on in the betting world.
And no, I’m not tempted to head further into betting – the cost on my nerves is too much!
Ball Lightning: But Family First will help get rid of Work Choices methinks….
Correct, both in VIC and ACT the greens need a swing of 1% away from the Liberals to get in. VIC more likely then the ACT.
They may, i’m not entirely sure about that. I don’t know to much about FF.
Thanks again Ball Lightning. It would be great if the Greens can get one more. We’ll see. With Xenophon, that would put the Coalition and FF out of the picture for a number of bills and save us from going to a DD.
Congratulations are due to William for this site, and all the Your Rights people for not giving in. The Rights at Work co-ordinators are very special people. The ones in Victoria that I met were really good. Katie Hall and Linda Carghill take a bow. The Corangamite co-ordinator was very good too. These people changed their country, and for the better!
OK, what officially happens now?
Does JWH have to hand in his resignation to Governor General? Does the Governor have to formally ask Rudd to form government? When does he do this?
What are the rules about swearing in?
I notice that SMH is giving ALP La Trobe. Has anyone given McEwen to Labor yet?
Also, hardly anyone has mentioned Macarthur. Farmer is only 225 votes in front. Wasn’t this a 13% seat?
Intrigueingly, Costello now has the very real option of usurping territory to the left of Rudd, on social issues – most notably Aboriginal issues where Rudd disgracefully backed away from his earlier pledge to back the referendum on the constitutional preamble. The shameful display was compounded by Penny Wong on TV trying to bignote the fact that Rudd had used the phrase “indigenous Australians” in his victory speech. As if that means a damn thing.
Costello could really put the small ‘l’ back in Liberal and create a very interesting political playing field. In terms of his economic/IR attitudes, I say Costello will have learnt a bitter lesson on WorkChoices and will emerge more realistic.
Do we mourn the passing of the Democrats? I personally feel they brought on themselves. Have the Greens become the 3rd force now in people’s perception?
the munz and others: Howard had to claim the defeat as his very own, because it largely was, and no one else in the party has the cojones (yet) to slag him for staying well past his use by date.
I loved the way Dolly waffled on, (and he looked like someone who was just dragged from a train wreck). It was just people wanting a change! Sure they did, a very bloody big one as it turns out. But that was magnified by the Rodent’s selfishness in hanging on and telling his cabinet to ’stick it’ when they told him otherwise.
Bolt, for once, is very right on this, the Libs are decimated across the nation, have no ‘moral compass’, and have seriously ‘damaged goods’ as their stand-in leader.
Now, time to look at all the positives coming our way with a new shiny government. Let’s not spend too much energy kicking the carcass (oh well, a week or two should suffice! LOL)
FF are anti WC, according to S. Fielding (FF Senator)
I agree that FF will be inclined to side with Labor over ditching WorkChoices. Fielding has been critical of the impact of WorkChoices on families. He recognises the inherent unfairness in it, so I’m not too worried about that. On the other hand, when the times comes for some more socially progressive legislation, things will take a different turn with FF.
We need 6 Greens.
It looks like a 3 Libs and 3 Labor in VIC, with a 1.33% gap between Liberal and the Greens at the end. Its still possible.
The Greens v Libs contest for the 6th spot in Vic seems pretty important. Id rather the ALP only needed Greens + Xenophon.
People more in the know than me: what are di Natale’s realistic chances, % wise?
Having said that…. the nightmare scenarios of LNP majority of 39, or even blocking vote of 38 has been averted. Realisitically, that has to be seen as a good result on the back of 04.
Good riddings to Kerry Nettle. Greens are all about p**sing in the wind. All TALK.
Lib and Labour have to govern
That is the general feeling.
We do, but its not to likely.
Having just been swept out of office essentially due to Workchoices, the Tories would be well advised to re-write their IR policies.
In which case they might end up with something similar to the ALP’s policy, in which case there would be very little reason to block the ALP’s policy in the senate.
LOL. Too true. My ‘crazy warehouse guy’ confidence at 5.30pm turned to nerves at 6.30pm when it looked like there might be a bit of a contest on. But then at 8pm I was back into ‘this-government-is-walking-out-the-door, never-to-be-repeated!’ mode. LOL
Where was Piers today on the insiders? I used to hang on each incisive word from his lips, I hankered all week for his nonpartisan opinions and meaningful advice.
And just when he had the opportunity of influencing the incoming government with the benefit if his unsurpassed wisdom, he disappears from his usual podium and seemingly out of our post election world.
Ah well, as was said on Star Trek, “It’s life John, but not as we know it….”
Flash: Considering Rudd mentioned Indigenous Australian’s almost immediately, we have a noticable shift in language….think about what JWH would have said “I work for the battlers, small business….blah, blah. I think it is, at the very least, encouraging. I’m hoping for the big SORRY very soon. At least it’s back on the agenda.
The democrats definitely brought it on themselves. They forgot whatever it was they stood for. Meg Lees treachery in voting for the GST was just the beginning. Sure the tax system was broken but what we ended up with is just a mess. It affects small bsuiness (the real engine of the economy) worst of all.
Beyond the Labor win the best thing about this election was the bad form of the Greens.
I’ll judge Rudd on his actions during this term of government… not on what he said and did during the election campaign.
Wasnt it a great moment when the ABCs annoyingly incorrect list of “won seats” at the bottom of screen shifted to somehting saner?
It was rubbish till about 8pm.
Lefty E: we had meltdowns over that too! hopeless.
‘Bad form of the greens’?
Thye got a national swing even though ALP got a record 2pp, and have bagged at least 3 senators.
I look forward to more ‘bad form’ like it.
Yeah, I was like WTF is going on?!!
“Costello could really put the small ‘l’ back in Liberal and create a very interesting political playing field.”
If you are thinking that Costello would do a Cameron (UK Conservatives), I think it will be an uphill battle. The problem with the Liberal Party of today is that it has been burdened with a large number of Christian fundamentalists and other very socially conservative types.
This was highlighted a couple of months back when the Howard cabinet met to decide whether to give gay people greater rights when it comes to some financial/legal areas, such as superannuation. This was not getting anywhere near gay marriage or anything like that, but they couldn’t even bring themselves to do this small thing. Some voted in favour, but the majority voted against.
Shifting the Liberal Party to the Left will be a HUGE task. And that is why they are suffering so badly now and probably will do so for a long time. To be out of government everywhere, with the highest senior position being the Lord Mayor of Brisbane is not only a humiliation for the party, it is a reflection of a party that has become increasingly irrelevant to mainstream Australian. But the problems seem to be so entrenched, it will take a lot of work to actually pull off a transformation.
And if it gets too hard, then they will have to split. A new, more genuine Liberal party will come into being, and a smaller conservative group will be the waste material.
So will the rest of Australia.
K Jin Says:
“Beyond the Labor win the best thing about this election was the bad form of the Greens.”
put down the crack pipe, please. clearly not everyone is as keen as you are to swap liberal domination for labor domination.
toobie Says: “Lefty E: we had meltdowns over that too! hopeless.”
This was hilarious – I was on the laptop looking at a variety of sites (inluding the ABC) that where showing seat by seat counts and I had to yell out to everyone in the other room to “relax” – they were horrified when they saw the graphic – bunch of wallies
Lefty E- That killed me too. I think we could have put in a class action against the ABC for undue stress.
George: all part of the fun! A nite to remember
One thing I guess to take from this election: Wentworth and North Sydney are now safe – if they coulnd’t be lost in this, they never will be (I know Haocky was at 10%, but the polls were saying some danger).
The voters of Warringah obvioulsy don’t care who runs for them so long as he is a Liberal, because after almost the worst campaign in history, Abbott only lost .99% of his primary vote.
Also the voters of Charlton don’t care where Greg Combet lives.
On 2GB this morning still spinning a Liberal victory with whingeback callers suggesting that it was all the fault those nasty union booth workers and Liberal workers being too afraid to front.
In Chifley at Doonside North the only Liberal workers who fronted were Filipino-background people who stood around talking amongst themselves frequently not even trying to give every voter an HTV even to the extent that voters determined to vote for that nice Mr Howard often had to ask where they could get one.
The candidate Jess Diaz turned up for about an hour and embarrassed a lot of those with the same background by speaking to them in Tagalog. Many of them would not look at him in the eye.
The Filipino ALP workers eschewed the opportunity to greet their fellows in the same way. “We are in Australia, we are educated and we speak Enlish” one opined.
FFP and ONP did not front at this big booth.
^^^ “Enlish” which of course they pronounced properly (and no doubt can spell correctly).
I don’t know if anyone has mentioned the complete failure of the Exclusive Brethren to make any impact in this election. I hope the tax office go through them like a dose of salts. In fact the new Commonwealth DPP should be sicked onto them for their money laundering activities as well.
As others have pointed out, it looks like Labor will need the support of the single Family First senator AND Nick Xenophon(IND) to get legislation through the senate. Some seem to think FF will help the liberals block bills.
However:
Both FF and Mr X support ratifiying the Kyoto protocol.
Both were opposed to Workchoices.
Both favour a more compasionate stance on immigration.
FF may ask for a higher tax-free threshold in exchange for their co-operation (to help poorer families).
Nick Xenophon will ask for federal legislation to remove ATMs from poker machine venues.
Labor is likely to find it can work with both on the key issues.
Grog: Abbott is the biggest twat of the lot! A twat for a twat electorate. I have friends there and feel for them. I’m in Bradfield mind you…Brenden not much better. My street now knows how I voted (street dancing a bit of a give away
) I won’t be popular. LOL
Is there any counting today?
I want to know so I can keep track on the AEC website. I won’t bother if there is no new results.
If everyone who is currently leading wins their seat, it will be 88-60 with 2 independents,
Meaning the Coalition will need 16 seats in 2010.
There’s that number again. Ironic, isn’t it?
(I don’t think it will end up 88-60, probably 87-61 or 86-62, don’t postals/prepolls favour the coalition?)
Green 3 seat gain in the upper house. Big Deal !! Come on lets be honest They had hopes of nearly double that. All they did was swap with the Dems.
I am all for the enviroment etc but in the light of day GREENS are bad for trees. They would rather see millions of miles of bush burnt each summer then save it in winter by back burning.
Flash.
Not so sure about Costello taking over some of the social issues you mention. Following Howard he’s likely to be a cautiously populist as Rudd on those issues. THats gonna be part of the Howard legacy…the libs to be viable in the future will need to make some inroads in those battler/outer suburban seats and you dont get respect out there by making reconciliation one of your priorities (unfortunate but true).
The right wing to remain viable has to appeal outside of its grassroots demographic. Costello will choose the Howard line on social issues. People seem to think cos he walked for reconciliation in 2000 that he’s progressive. They forget that on almost every other wedge issue dredged up by Howard Costello was supportive and in some cases more hardline.
The problem for Costello and the reason why he’s not a viable leadership alternative is that he’s forever going to be associated with Workchoices. Labor have already started that narrative about his HR Nicols connections and hardline IR views. Workchoices is effectively going to make Costello electorally impotent to the battler electorates that he will need.
This being the case, the only option for the Libs is turnbull. But you can bet they won’t go near him. Why – cos as the Howard debacle has shown the party is full of second rate spineless time servers and wimps. Costello’s sense of entitlement is almost pathological and he will intimidate those who might want to question his leadership entitlement. They’ll elect him leader. Labor will hammer him as an extremist for the next 3 years (god I can’t wait to see him cop it like a lame duck in question time) and Turnbull will take over in 2010..
costello resigns
Noocat @ 380
I agree, the Liberals will do well to recover quickly from this. Now that they are out of Government, and now that the cult of personality around Howard is gone, it does make you wonder what will happen to them. There are a lot of wacked out Christian Right Wingers in the Liberals who have adopted the politics of the US Republican Party, but Australia is not that sort of place where that sort of divisive, Karl Rove approach to politics will work (in fact even the US Republicans are in a state of disrepair, as per the mid terms elections of 2006).
If the Liberals move more to the right, where people like Alex Hawke would want them to be, they will be in opposition for a long time. These right wingers are just too far outside of the mainstream to be electable, in much the same way the the Left wing of the ALP is too far away from the mainstream.
The Liberals need to move to the middle and adopt some progressive social policy. If it one thing the Liberals really never had while they were in office, it was a coherent social policy. They were only ever about the economy and negative scare tactics. And now they are the first Government to get pitched out during an economic boom. Go figure.
Oh it just gets better
how many more will go ?
Geez Donwer on Insiders was incredible – fancy scoffing at the thought of belittling himself by going into state parliament. And he wonder why the Libs can’t win state elections.
His attitude suggests there’ll be a bi-election in Mayo soon (although I bet he fancies himself as sticking aroung being the “puppet master” lol).
At the St Andrews booth, one of the non-hippy voters had been an Australian resident for 48 years who had just become a citizen. He gave one reason as so he could vote against the Liberals’ IR laws.
John V Russell (373),
Meg Less committed no act of treachery in voting for the GST. The Democrats promised before the lection that they would do so. She was following the promise she was elected on.
I am not surprised by the result. Below are a few of my earlier posts, predicting a Labor victory from February.
260107 (Idle speculation about the federal election)
‘The only prediction I make is one I have been making for years: the Democrats are finished. No ifs, no buts – they will lose all their Senate seats – and it will be their own fault.’
280207 (Idle speculation: late February edition)
‘I’ve just looked through Labor’s National Curriculum Policy. Kevin Rudd will retain the initiative all year. He is absolutely determined. He will hit hard and fast and without warning from every direction under the sun. He will keep the government on the run, and he will win. If I’m right, I’ll claim bragging rights. If I’m wrong, I hope you will all forget I said this – I will.’
120307 (Idle speculation: mid- March edition)
‘It would be foolish to say that Kevinism is unstoppable, but I still think Labor will win and win clearly. I’ll leave the numbers till later. This is not 2001, or 2004, or even 1969. This is 1972, but with the advantage of no Whitlam government at the end of it.’
190307 (Idle speculation: 61-39 edition)
‘The Howard government has become a joke. This is more likely to be fatal than being called evil by the usual suspects.
‘If Christopher Pearson reflects the continuing Liberal line with his statement, ”The idea of Rudd as a hostage to Burke, rather than merely his dupe, will begin to trouble more of those who already feel he hasn’t been completely truthful’ (“The overdrawn account”, The Weekend Australian, March 17, 2007), then the government is gone’
290307 (Idle speculation: late March edition)
‘The 2004 ALP-DLP-FF deal was designed to elect Jacinta Collins (the No. 3 ALP candidate). It was reported in the press before the election. Any ALP member who did not know about it did not take enough interest in politics to justify being a member of a political party. I am certain there will not be the same deal this time, not because of anything to do with “progressive” policies”, but because the practicalities of the next election will be different.’
030607 (Idle Speculation: annihilation edition)
‘I still think Labor will win, and do so convincingly. (I’ll leave the figures till later.) The Liberals have been totally ineffective in countering the Labor message since last year. I think many are being misled by the previous Liberal victories from behind and cannot risk believing that Labor will finally do it, in case the disappointment is too great. At the same time, there is northing inevitable about a Labor victory. The spin from The Australian is the most entertaining I have seen in 40 years, but very few people read that paper, and its stance is so obvious that no one will not see through it.
‘The Liberal misreading of the minds of voters is the greatest I have ever seen too. This suggests to me that they have simply lost it.’
and
‘I predict Labor to gain 22 seats. I should add that, as a person with little interest in football, I have entered only one football tipping competition in my life. I won.
‘I think there is a chance that the coalition will gain only two Senate seats in one state, which would leave it with the ability to block Labor legislation on its own but take away its ability to carry any bills, amendments or motions without the support of Family First.
‘I will revise my predictions in July. If there is no budget bounce by then, that’s it.’
140607 (Idle speculation: Bryan overboard edition)
‘I’ll argue the toss. Kevin Rudd has set the agenda since the start of the year, which gave him a commanding lead. He has not finished setting the agenda. Labor will maintain its lead until the election. The Liberals have wasted six months in trivial attacks on him and his party, and they have not landed a blow. The polls will move up and down and the future is not set in stone, but I am confident of a Labor victory. The only advice I would give him is to be clear and stop jumping all over the place on IR. He should take my advice, just like Frank McManus should have in 1974.’
My Senate prediction was Labor 34, Coalition 37, Greens 3, FF 1, Nick Xenophon 1. It looks like Labor will be a little lower and the Greens a little higher, but the other three seem spot on at this stage of the count.
I am surprised at the fall in the DLP Senate vote in Victoria. It was even outpolled by the Democrats here, while it has done better in other states where it has not existed for more than 30 years.
I have had a look at the Andrew Bolt Forum and the Liberal supporters are predicting the end of civilisation, just as they did in the press the week after the 1999 Victorian election. Civilisation got better, and Labor followed up with two landslides, in 2002 and 2006. Kevin Rudd will win the next federal election with a further swing to the ALP.
Adam (if you are viewing),
In ‘Idle speculation about the federal election’ (10/2/2007), you said that a “Rudd government will probably be the nearest thing to a Christian Democrat government Australia has ever had”. Do you maintain that view? I have said on one thread that Kevin Rudd will be our first DLP prime minister. I just wanted to say it first, but I am sure someone else in the ALP or the media will say it at a future date, just as they said that Steve Bracks was Victoria’s first DLP premier.
I also wonder how soon the usual suspects will start attacking the Rudd Government on the same issues as they attacked the Howard Government and how the ALP will deal with the internal tensions that arise from Mr Rudd’s election-winning conservatism and the ALP activists’ trendyism.
Costello Resigns???
Where, where, WHERE??????
What a gutless wonder.
pathetic.
PK was right – low altitude flyer.
Rudd wants to govern for ‘all Australians’. There have also been parallels drawn between what he wants to do and British Labour. I wonder if he will attempt to draft any Liberals into a ministry as Brown has sought to do with both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems? Petro in multiculturalism for instance? And I wonder what the response of these people would be in that event?
He just said that he will not seek the leadership, but retain his seat.
401 Sky News
fifth time this gutless turd would not take the leadership
Costello is a gutless wonder Howard was right about him all along.
Greg S: “He just said that he will not seek the leadership, but retain his seat.”
too good…
380
Noocat Says:
The problem with the Liberal Party of today is that it has been burdened with a large number of Christian fundamentalists and other very socially conservative types.
Not to mention its meanness of spirit and total self-absorption (I’m doing ok so bugger off anyone who’s not). This was very evident in JH’s address at the Press Club, where the Liberal rent-a-crowd booed respected commentators like Michelle Grattan. Hard to see how they can rebuild.
what????????????? resigns from what????
HOW F’ING GUTLESS CAN THIS GUY GET!?
#406 Who wants to lead a bunch of loosers LOL. Gutless and spineless nonetheless. A better man/woman would see the challenge and rise to it. Not Costello!
Costello won’t even seek leadership??
Unbelievable. PJK you picked him right all along .
It’s probably a smart move. He can sweep in at a later date. Still won’t change a thing. He is unelectable.
Get yer hand off it, K jin.
Getting a national swing *while the ALP scored itshighest 2PP in postwar history* is an excellent performance.
They now have 5 senate seats, and may yet get 6.
They have also comprehensively vanquished the democrats, and are now the ONLY third force / minor party in the country (leaving aside the one accidentally elected loser FF senator, which was just an Vic ALP stuff up).
All in all – top result.
Shame actually. Smirk would have ensured at least one more Rudd term he’s so appalling. Please let Dolly go for it.
This is the more difficult decision for Costello to take in some ways. It would have been more of the same from him to just take the leadership.
today does feel the best. i handed out in Corangamite for Your Rights at Work yesterday, and the Libs knew by 11AM they were in for a hiding. Rights at Work had more people on the booth than Labor or Liberal. bye bye Howard. No-one liked you anyway.
Not to forget Lefty E that the Greens will now have official party status. More staff, etc.
How are the postal votes going LTEP? Still pointing to a shock Coalition victory with 48% of the 2PP?
Just wanted the Prime Ministership given to him.
Fair Dinkum has there been a better example of a born to ruler than this fraud.
What an absolute pea heart coward.
I cant believe the lack of guts.
And they used to go o about Beazleys tickers.
Liberal frauds.
LTEP. Nope. If he won’t take it now, he wil forever be branded as the most spineless political figure in Australian politics.
I mean Howard just told the nation the LIberals should get behind Tip.
Downer just said the LIberals should get behind Tip.
I don’t usually refer to people by their nicknames here, but sh*t, he REALLY IS ALL TIP.
See the GG had one final slap at Labor yesterday.
Award-winning journalist Caroline Overington hurled abuse at Labor candidate for Wentworth George Newhouse before slapping him across the face at a polling station in Sydney’s east, witnesses say.
Ms Overington, a Walkley winning reporter who works for The Australian newspaper, has been embroiled in a dispute involving a series of emails to independent candidate Dani Ecuyer urging her to preference Wentworth Liberal MP Malcolm Turnbull.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/journo-slaps-candidate/2007/11/24/1195753358992.html
He should at least CHALLENGE for the leadership to demonstrate he wanted it.
Even if he lost, at least he would’ve demonstrated that he WANTED it.
Yeah thats a pity if true cos costello as leader was a guaranteed second term for Labor..
Do you expect anything else from her?
@ 414 Lose the election please Says:
Costello the man who had the effrontery to attack Beazley who picked up the ALP pieces twice as having “no ticker” now reveals himself a gutless wonder.
We forget that the polls had started to turn before Rudd moved.
So is Turnbull now the front runner?
Yes
I think, or at least hope, it will be come increasingly apparent that one of the main reasons Rudd won so comfortably is his intellect.
Many go on about Howard being a canny, cunning, tough politician. Science, innovation and techology have been horrendously neglected in this country while continuing to become more important. Global issues continue to become more complex, and it takes a keen intellect to simplifying enough to see solutions, without simplifying to much to leave only ideology, and no evidence, to inform direction.
I think Rudd has demonstrated a quite stunning capacity to understand and negotiate the political issues by understanding that their roots lie in substantive issues and changes in the world. One of the most difficult things to do is to peel back layers of complexity to get to the essence of key problems. Part of this means taking advice wherever it is needed. SOLUTIONS ARE OFTEN MUCH SIMPLER THAN ANYONE IS LED TO BELIEVE BY POLITICAL RHETORIC.
I don’t want a leader who is canny, I want a leader who has the intellectual power to genuinely grasp the issues we are all faced with, and to tackle those issues strategically.
Whether or not Howard was canny, he was all but anti-intellectual. This is something we can ill afford in 2007. The most fundamental thing I believe he underestimated is the difference between genuine intellect and political “savvy”.
It’s a good day — a new beginning, I hope, of an age of smart solutions that will make all our lives simpler and better.
I take it people have noticed Labor has pulled in front in McEwen.
Labor may win McEwan
Peter Costello has announced his intention to refuse the Liberal Party leadership and quit politics for business following the Howard Government’s election defeat.
Mr Costello made the announcement to journalists in Melbourne this afternoon.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/costello-wont-lead-libs/2007/11/25/1195947541130.html
This is best for the Libs in the long run.
Costello won’t run again
There’s some nonsense in comments above about the Greens doing badly.
On current AEC figures, the Green share of the national senate vote
is 9.02%, up 1.35%. (Other environmental parties: the Climate Change
Coalition scored 0.56% and Conservatives for Climate and Environment
0.07%, replacing Liberals for Forests with 0.90% at the last election.)
Three senate seats may not be as much as some had hoped for, but is
still a damn good result. And Victoria and Queensland may yet deliver more
(I’m pretty sure the ACT is not going to happen).
And that spineless turkey would have taken the PMship had Howard won?
What a weak-kneed pissant.
Why the f*ck did he run in Higgins then? What a loser.
Yeah, the threat of unions in small businesses was so strong that people just voted in a Labor government.
OH DEAR LORD, Costelo’s wife is weirder than Tip.
Steven Kaye, about your emigration plans.
If you promise never to come back, I promise to pay your departure tax.
Otherwise, enjoy the next decade. I certainly will.
Holy Cow!!! and still blabbing the scare campaign!!! i’m scared for Oz, union heavies on the doorstep of small business. what a gutless wonder.
I actually think this is a smart move by Costello. He knows his chances of ever being PM are virtually zero now.
Isn’t Costello the most dishonest gutless spineless loser!
Listen to this lovely comment in this story:
Howard likely to lose in Bennelong
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2007/11/24/1195753377773.html
“When Ms McKew appeared on giant screens around the Wentworth Hotel ballroom, filmed being feted by the Labor faithful at her Bennelong function, loud boos rang out. Some Young Liberals abused the Labor candidate, one yelling “get a facelift, you slag”"
On the topic of churches and exclusive bretheren and their ilk, perhaps now is a good time to look at taxing them as corporations. Why not? They seem to exhibit the same disregard for the welfare of society, and they have their Lear jets and all the trappings. They are a useless anachronism, full of nitwits who could not hold a job in the real world. Their main reason for existence these days seems to be kiddy fiddling, ship the lot of em out I say. Tax em on their massive property holdings too.
And Bishop will be deputy? – To fight Julia with anaother woman?
STOP PRESS:
Steve Kaye is actually Peter Costello and he on the run trying to escape ruddhell…
Costello obviously wants to be shadow foreign affairs for a term or two before challenging Turnbull in 5 years time.
I’m assuming he wants to stay on the front bench.
AHHAHAHAHHA Now Costello is accusing the ABC of bias!
439
Spiros Says:
Steven Kaye, about your emigration plans.
If you promise never to come back, I promise to pay your departure tax.
I’d chip in for the airfare.
Now its the ABC’s fault that Lindsay got all the coverage and the Libs couldn’t get their message out.
Can these people be any more deluded.
Policies were good AUstralians “just wanted change”.
You keep believing that smirk. – Idiot.
re: 443: http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200709/r175611_667513.jpg
Its certainly in the best interests of the Libs. No way Smirker would have worried Rudd in 2010.
Turnbull will do a better job.
C’mon people. You know Costello has no chance of winning the next election. If he takes the leadership he will lose the election (if he gets that far) and then get knifed by Turnbull.
I think it’s the only sensible option open to him. At least he knows when he is f$*ked… unlike Howard.
The best campaign manager in the history of democracy says:
Liberals will not fall apart: Loughnane
Costello quits.
No wonder they lost the election
Ah, good morning all. Here in Robertson Belinda is still trying to find a way to lose yet again against a weak local member. Lucky it wasn’t crucial.
SirEggo – I reckon Macathur is still alive too on those figures – how do we find out how many postal there are?
The age says he is quitting politics for business.
I couldnt help but laugh when Howard timed his concession pefectly to interrupt Costello.
John Hunt, I had Steven Kaye as Downer.. but he could be a chimera of them both.
I love how not 3 hours ago Downer just told the naiton that Turnbull doesn;t have the experience to be leader!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/25/2100474.htm
Leadership
Mr Downer says he supports Mr Costello as the next leader of the Liberal Party.
“No one in the party has the experience of Peter Costello and I think there shouldn’t be a contest for the leadership, it should just go straight to Peter Costello,” he said.
Experience
Mr Downer says Mr Costello will made a formidable opposition leader, and he will have Mr Rudd’s measure.
these guys are soooooo deluded….. they cant believe that arn’t ruling anymore. over the course of the next few months these guys are really going to show how much they are out of touch. He virtually accused the public of not knowing what they were doing. what an arrogant Fwit.
what a prick. we didnt know what we were voting for!
Costello bagging Labor now is hilarious. Because whatever he says about Labor, the voters have just said that the Liberals are worse.
Its a smart move by Costello. He will now be the one to carp at Turnbull (or whoever) from the back benches. He was damaged goods and there is no way he had any hope of lasting the next three years. On the back bench he will try and rehabilitate his image by doing soft appearances on the morning shows etc.
I have no doubt that he still desires the PM’s position and this is the only way he believed he could achieve it.
He will still never be PM.
Turnbull isn’t exactly mr. popular either.
Costello still sniping. This is petty stuff. Just take the decision.
so who guessed it right? Does the fact that Morgan got it reasonably close mean that they are out of the doghouse and AC Nielsen are out?
Wonder if he will be tempted to tip a big bucket over some of Ratboy’s little skeletons in the closet
Oops should have read the story closer. Didn’t realise he was quitting politics altogether. My bad.
Can’t believe it!
The guy was annointed as Howard’s successor, and he won’t take his medicine and sit in the opposition leader’s chair. Absolutely gutless…….
Who’s going to be opposition leader now?
Turnbull, Downer, Nelson, Bishop?
Gulp……Abbott?
What aboput his effing wife piously and earnestly reading out part of a CJ Dennis poem.
FFS these tories are weirdo’s and cowards.
How the flipping hell did they get 46% tpp is beyond me.
God what a train wreck.
Please let it be Dolly
Oh please, please, please.
So the implosion begins. Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of bastards! The final irony: while the senior Liberal in the country is Campbell Newman, Lord Mayor of Brisbane, the senior Coalition person is Karlene Maywald, a National Party member, who is (get this, folks) a Minister in Rann’s Labor Govt in SA. Delicious!
How prophetic
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rnwn4q_ZE9c
Nelson might be a dark horse, notwithstanding his shocking series of blunders in Defence. Surely Downer wouldn’t delude himself he could do any better than last time.
Turnbull is not Mr Popular. He did the Republic cause no good. He is also not great in parliament.
Costello will be savaged for this.
He will be mud in the Liberal Party.
My sister just rang, apparently Pyne has said something about going for the deputy leadership. lol
Their update now says that he will stick around “to mentor new MPs” but is implying that he will leave at some stage to move into business.
Is he quitting politics altogether? The story says he’s staying on in Higgins and seeking employment in the private sector?
Does that mean he’s staying on until the next election and then leaving?
Flash Says: “Surely Downer wouldn’t delude himself he could do any better than last time.”
We can only live in hope Flash…
But Turnbull is the guy Labor would least want to face next time around. He is smart, reasonably progressive, and very marketable notwithstanding the wealth factor (Rudd is hardly a battler of course).
So I guess we will never see the Abbott and Costello Show?
That seems to be the implication. Of course he could change his mind between now and the next election.
Their update now says that he will stick around “to mentor new MPs” but is implying that he will leave at some stage to move into business.
Code decryptor… coming through now…
to mentor new MPs…… to heap shit on whoever is the leader and generally stuff things up for the rest of you bastards!
LTEP – will stay for the term but reckons he is looking at post politics.
Core or non core retirement?
The legacy of JW Rodent is the wreck of Menzies child.
Oh the joy – the joy.
You live for days like today.
Turnbull-Pyne – the new “dreamteam”
he’s not quiting. he’s staying on to serve his constituents.
SirEggo,
“Who’s going to be opposition leader now?
Turnbull, Downer, Nelson, Bishop?”
Do you mean Bronnie? hahaha
Yes George, wouldn’t it be marvellous if Downer snared it. He would certainly be more popular at a personal level.
And yes Costello will bow out of politics at the end of this term, to enter “the commercial world” which could translate I suppose as trying to winner another Dollar Sweets type case.
Small problem for Pyne,
Don’t you have to win your seat first before you have a go at the deputy leadership?
Walk before you can run Christopher…….
Costello knows he’d be opposition leader for at least 6 years and that Costello would most likely get him after the 2010 loss. Given his strutting tough slob behaviour in parliament, he probably can’t stomach the idea of being humiliated by Labor on the floor of parliament. The ‘tickerless’, ‘gutless’ line would have been brutal. Bullies usually run a mile when the odds turn against them.
Leader of the opposition is a hard, thankless job and for a guy like Costello who’s a lazy, unimaginative, born to rule kind of guy, the idea of actually having to do some work would have disturbed him. No more brilliant macro economic figures effortlessly flowing in that he can take credit for, no more treasury holding his hand, he’d have to get out of the hammock. No wonder he’s getting out.
Probably the greatest lame arsed patsy in the history of australian politics.
I think he’ll be retiring some time during this term. Possibly might stay on until the end of the term but there’s no way he will contest it. Plenty of $ to be made in the business world for someone with his connections.
As an ALP supporter I can say we have gotten too used to being in opposition and losing at the crucial moment.
Here we are not 24 hours after the greatest Labor win in history, and there people getting nervous about 2010!
lol
481: Turnbull-Pyne – the new “dreamteam”
Turnbull better watch his back then!
Basil Fawlty
I meant Julie Bishop. But Bronwyn couldn’t do any worse.
Oh god, what am I saying?
*uppercut to self*
Just woke up. Got a massive hangover. Very pleased with winning but entirely gutted by my fellow west australians. How the f**k did they not see Rudd as an asset to our future. Handed out pamphlets for Liz Prime in Cowan all bloody day… had a chat to her and she seemed really nice.. but WA knobs voted for that mungbean Simpkins. It’s got me stuffed.
Just goes to show that maybe Former Lib Premier Richard Court was right to suggest that WA secede from the Commonwealth of Australia 10 years ago. We are a totally different breed and don’t deserve to call ourselves Australian.
DavidS- You are right. But Rory McEwan is in the same boat as Minister for Agriculture in SA as a National.
When I said Downer would be more popular personally, I mean more popular among the parliamentary Liberal party than Turnbull, who is not liked.
Oh yes and its official as far as Im concerned: Morgan the undisputed poll winner!!
Shock result, no?
Sunday November 25, 12:38 PM
http://au.news.yahoo.com/071018/2/14pm7.html
Morgan wins pollster title
For pollsters the result that mattered most was their final pre-election prediction and how closely it matched reality.
The winner was the Morgan Poll which came within 0.9 per cent of tipping the two-party preferred vote – Labor 53.41 coalition 46.59 – with its final poll on Friday evening.
Morgan also tipped correctly that outgoing environment minister Malcolm Turnbull would hold onto his marginal Sydney seat of Wentworth but might be wrong with its prediction that outgoing prime minister John Howard would hang on in Bennelong.
The Neilsen poll, published in Fairfax newspapers on Friday, was the least accurate of the major opinion polls with its prediction of a 57-43 win for Labor.
Newspoll and Galaxy, which both predicted a close-run race following a late surge to the coalition, also got it wrong predicting a 52-48 margin to Labor.
Yeah SirEggo, i realised who you meant, but the devil made me do it.
Has anyone asked David Clarke or Alex Hawke what they think of Malcolm? I can guess, and the fireworks between the Lib factions now will be superb to watch. Sit back, relax and enjoy the ride
Red Under the Bed… I hear you… Luke Simpkins is terrible. Chin up though, Ms Jackon is back and Kim Wilkie may hang on yet.
Turnbull will never be PM.
McKewen WAS a National, but he lost a pre-selection contest. He still won the seat as an independent.
RUdd will win 2010 – Im sure of that.
Libas are scrabbling over a tilt in 2013.
So, maybe, just maybe, Smirk’s doing a Keating, and will sit out the 2010 loss?
Cossie can’t be serious – he can’t sit on the backbench brooding and taking advice from Danny Nalliah. His position is untenable surely?
The exit poll was 53/47 – same as the AEC figure (although I know the exit was 54/46 extended beyond the Lib marginals)
#495 it goes to show that each election a different poll is going to be the one.
The Sky Exit poll did very well and was spot on.
Even last night Howard had no idea that Costello was going to retire. I think that sums up their relationship, but didn’t even tell each other what they intended to do after the election.
Costello has announced he won’t contest the leadership. He’s seen the writing on the wall! What the hell do they do now?
Yep Turnbull on the sruface looks smart – but he has no support in the parliamentary party.
Bishop could be a smokey. If she isn’t given the deputy that Libs will be very stupid – WA was the only state to hold for them. They have to be rewarded.
I bet Turnballs will get it, but do you really want such a job? Anyone who gets it now won’t hold on to it for long enough to become the next PM. Best to swoop in later.
K Jin, you might want to reflect on the fact that without substantial Greens prefs that Howard would still be in Kirribilli.
You might want to consider , too, that more people now vote for the Greens in Australia than for the Nats, and that the Labor Party will most certainly need Greens support to get anything through the senate.
Two very positive things for me about this election have been:
1) The Greens have moved from being a “boutique” party with great ideas on some things and pretty fuzzy ones on others to a party whose policy is developing a coherence and direction that was previously lacking.
2) While “working a booth” yesterday the much more positive co-operation between Greens and Labor than in the past.
For most of my life I’ve voted Labor (and worked for them occasionally in elections in the past). The shift to the centre or centre right by Labor has taken them a bit out of my own orbit in recent times and the emergence and development of The Greens means that instead of being involved in interminable wrangling within the Labor ranks there is a “natural” alternative for me. I suspect this is actually on balance good for the ALP, as long as The Greens and Labor can remain in a loose alliance against the forces of the harder right and the Fundamentalist Christian and Supremacist-Nationalist lobbies.
Cheers
Rod
Wonder how the good burghers of Higgins feel now?
Tip no iceberg. What a wimp! Doesn’t want to risk facing what he’s been dishing out.
LETP 498
Whether we get up in Swan isn’t the thing that bites me… its the fact that it shouldnt even be an issue… WA people are just f**kwits for even making Swan marginal, losing Cowan and not winning Stirling.
What a Hissy Fit !!!!
Rudd thought Lucks a fortune before the Election.
My pick——– Miss Prim Julie Bishop to replace Turnbull in 2 years time
Still, it is amusing to watch this implosion, reminds of that film, oh what was it called… ‘Downfall’ i think;)
If Turnbull gets the leadership he will need to bag out Howard and come clean that he wanted to ratify Kyoto.
Yeah, time to start collecting gasoline
Is there a final word on whether Costello is retiring for good from politics or just going to the backbench? The Age article says he’s getting out to go into business (not of course, real business, just lazing around on corporate boards.)
They wont go with Pyne for deputy for several reasons. He interviews terribly and would reinforce the “born to rule” image that killed them. Lots of the party hate him with a passion. And his margin is so small that if Mia runs against him next election he will lose.
In the states where greens can get some seats, this is how far behind they are:
NSW: 4.8% to Liberal over Greens
VIC: 1.33% to Liberal over Greens
QLD: 1.43% to Labor over Greens
ACT: 1.02% to Liberal over Greens
Very hard for a Sandgroper to lead nationally as the Bomber demonstrated. There are only so many times a body can cope with that flight to and from home.
He is going to the back bench now and intends to retire at the next election.
Sean. i watched the speech. he’s staying to serve. he just spoke about his need to start thinking about a life after politics.
Bet there are a few big corporations nervous today, there will be some scrutiny of who gave what to whom I reckon.
Costello staying on as member for Higgins
Costello has the heart the size of a split pea,jellyfish spineless twat,Parliament will be worth watching now ,the week gets better and better.
Looks like Labor will pick up Higgins at the next federal election if not before. Costello is a wimp. Didn’t he go straight to the ministry without ever spending a single day as a backbencher nor in opposition? Paul Keating was right when he recently described Costello as the laziest treasurer this country has ever seen. This gutless act (I wonder if he even discussed it with Downer before his dummy spit) will ensure he has a smell about him for the rest of his time in business or in public life. Loser!
Keating was right again, Costello is GUTLESS
Rod @ 509 – Exactly how I feel. Great summary of the situation . That’s why it would be terrific if the greens won another senate position so Fielding didn’t have the power
Nelson or Bishop for deputy I would say.
I hope Bishop. Because the more people see of her, the less impressed they will be IMHO. Never thought much of her in QT – Her references to “noodle nation” were limp, adn only played to the front bench.
They are cleaning house. But remember in 3 years time they won’t be able to run a fear campaign on risking Rudd.
And you can bet your house, car and life on the fact Rudd will stay in the centre and give the Libs nowhere to go but right.
The Greens have no chance in NSW. I think Queensland is actually the biggest chance, because of the large BTL vote and all the minors. They’ve won on Pauline’s preferences before! And Victoria is a chance. I think the ACT is no hope, because they need the Liberals to get less then 1/3 of the postals.
Victoria (or ACT) is the interesting one from a BOP perspective.
Thanks ShowsOn
THat sounds dubious to me. Might be selling someone else the dummy pass of oppositoin leader for the next 3 years (a no win gig) – thus giving some time for the stench of his Howard association to die down, and then coming back to the leadership after the next election…….
How long will Downer hang around? Not long, I imagine, he’s seen as a bit too close to Howard.
So Turnbull looks like it – if I were a Liberal supporter, I’d be happy with that: a more moderate leader who isn’t going to follow the traditional Liberal practice when losing elections of lurching to the Right and guaranteeing three terms in opposition. Though, his margin didn’t change much – sure he got a swing but he’s still sitting on about 3.5%. I think he may well switch seats as soon as possible.
I will confess to being a heretic: I quite liked Costello, I think he was reasonably socially progressive and was held back by Howard. But of course, he lacked testicular fortitude and PJK did get his character right. Keating has known it since 1995: http://youtube.com/watch?v=aaLLP4sc_6Q
I agree with you on NSW. The ACT is not likely at all but it is a possibility.
Whoever leads the Libs will have voted for Serfchoices and Labor will NEVER let anyone forget that.
Told you so !!!
Gloating over, here’s some observations from the small (915 votes) booth I ran for Maxine in North Ryde, and I also was an ALP scrutineer.
BTW, there 71 informal votes (7.8%) of which for half the intent was clear but mistakes were made like duplicate numbers. This was about even between Howard and Maxine voters. It’s just sad that the rules are so strict and the no-hoper independents only devalue democracy by making the the ballot paper more confusing. I’d fix this by allowing a single 1 as a formal vote.
But back to the main story. Many Lib voters did not follow their slate. Although a minority, maybe 5% of my fellow residents put 1 for Howard but 2 for Maxine. These were not the votes of the politically ignorant. They were all formal, which was no mean feat with 13 candidates. My point being that unlike us unrepresentative swill on these blogs, many people vote for different reasons to our policy and point-scoring perspective. Rudd will run a good government and the Libs will be busy in-fighting for the next 3 years. And so Maxine’s margin will surely lift to make this a safe Labor seat. She was the right candidate and her profile is excellent. As a new member of a fresh government she will attract yet more votes. Whon knows, in 2013 she may win on primaries !
Lateline should get Keating on for Monday night.
The problem is Turnbull is he is not popular in the parliamentary party, so I am not sure they will go for Turnbull if there is another nominee. Here’s hoping that Downer or Nelson throw their hat into the ring.
Over time they will see that Turnbull is their only choice, but not until after a lot of self inflicted damage.
Brough would have been a good deputy. Rightly or wrongly, he was one of the few perceived not to have a busted moral compass.
Turnball / Bishop would be my guess but I think they will prove to be just a bit brittle for the job.
Low altitude flier, he got it so right.
You gutless gutless coward Costello.
I bet you he made up his mind to do this the very moment after Julia Gillard stared down the chamber bully on the last sitting day and absolutely tore strips off the smug pr*ck. I don’t think i have ever known such a gutless coward.
He had to stay and lead and cop the flak for 2 years to at least prove he had any ticker,and give his party some solidity and breathing space, but he wasn’t up to even 1 day.
All tip no iceberg….indeed.
Maybe. But this means he has now dodged the Leadership of the Liberal party for so many times:
1994, 1995, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2007
Labor can paint him as a gutless wonder.
I know the greens give Labour there prefs but so what !! So did Pauline Hanson up here in QLD.
I remember walking to vote 10 years ago and a green handed me a HTV saying save the Trees.
Thats like a nazi saying Save the Fatherland That worked at well.
It was Labour who saved the Franklin !!!
It was T R a REP who set up Yellowstone the first national park in the world. It is not that Greens are bad for the economy. They are bad for TREES
If you retire you retire, you don’t pi.s around on the backbench for 3 years. Costello’s planning on coming back, no question..
Costello is a good example for his kids,just give up kids when the going gets tough,good riddance you knob.
Imagine if Rudd puts the Republican issue back on the table now we will have the Rightwingers going one way and Turnbull and co. another. Interesting times indeed.
I guess the Libs could throw a disposable like Nelson into the leadership while the fires burn and then elevate Turnball.
… actually now that I have pictured Nelson in the leadership role … nope
No, you do piss around on the backbench for 3 years if you have just been elected. Costello is finished. Done like dinner. Dead meat. No coming back.
How are they bad for trees? They don’t have any forestry policies which say cut down trees to they now?
#512 –
“WA people are just f**kwits for even making Swan marginal, losing Cowan and not winning Stirling.”
Yes, they are a wonderfully astute bunch over in WA, aren’t they? They can see right through Krudd.
For a great re-cap of the year – The ex-GG have now put up the Leak boxing match cartoons in one gallery:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/gallery/0,25198,5027659-20581,00.html
Costello is an honorable man. He put party loyalty ahead of his own ambition time and again. He is doing so again now.
Your hate and bile is blinding you.
Poor Milne must wonder whom he ties his wagon to now.
Yes Grog, now is the time to restore PJK to his rightful exhalted place, one of the true greats of Australian politics. We owe our good economy to him, not the other swill.
So the Libs are leaderless atm. Hahaha.
Bishop is a c-grade candidate best left to yap on Lateline when everyone else is asleep. Not smart enough, simple as that.
Superhornet Nelson has the personality of a plank of wood. No charisma.
The only guy who is sem-bankable is Turnballs, but there is an air of dodgyness about him, and for a supposed smart guy he has yet to do anything of note (apart from sell his soul to the rodent and co).
Man, the liberals are a mess, what a beautiful sight.
547 Steven Kaye ditto that for the whole Liberal party, they are lost in space without a compass or map.
So was Howard but they loved once he won. They want to win and won’t care about popularity within the party.
[ Labor can paint him ( Costello ) as a gutless wonder.
What’s the point if he’s a back bencher? Why would Labor waste their time and money attacking Costello if he’s moving on.
537 Deo who is popular in the Lib parliamentary party AND popular in public???
I hope we have a vote on the republic at the next election “Do you want Australia to become a Republic? Yes or No”.
Then at the 2013 election we have a plebecite on the precise model.
If he still wants a press secretary job, he should tie his wagon to Rudd.
548
Ball Lightning Says:
Greens are bad for trees because: They stop back burning during the winter and so in the summer, the bonfire of the bush is all the bigger.
Note I have no sympathy for people who build there house on the edge of bushland and then carry on when there house it burnt down. They are stupid and so probably vote green in any case.
The Bottom line is Costello is a lazy gutless prick who cant hack the idea of putting in the hard yards as opposition leader with a little prospect of re-election in the short term. Every thing the guys done has been handed to him on a platter. Now he’s gonna take it easy on the backbench while some other poor plodder has to actually make the hard yards as opposition leader. He knows the libs won’t get in for at least another 2 terms..Then of course when the cycle’s more favourable, he’ll perk up and start tapping people on the shoulder.
He really is an absolute embarresment. I hope Labor nail him on the backbench
When are the AWB charges going to be laid, don’t think Dolly will cope with prison.
Will the Nats shaft Vaille? I reckon hes a gonner
Paul Keating for Governor General would work a treat.
Labor also get to appoint the next 3 High Court justice who will return in the current term, including Justice Michael Kirby.
no wonder the Bolter tipped a bucket on Jellyback Peter on Insiders this morning.
You are correct in this, but this is only one thing which the greens do. OVERALL they are better for trees then Labor or Liberal.
This is so wonderful. The libs have no leader, and no one capable.
Well, it’s been fun and I’ve enjoyed everyone’s post. Time to bid adieu and get back to my mounting in-tray. Thanks everyone and William too. It has been a very sweet victory indeed.
Steve K
They said the same about Howard in 1989. Costello’s read that book..
K Jin,
actaully the Greens do support controlled burns for assett protection, but hey! you”re telling the story…
And Basil it would be nice to hear PJK send off Howard and Costello in style.
Wonder how Big Mal Fraser is feeling today, one word, VINDICATED perhaps.
570
jen Says:
‘assett protection’ that you mention sounds like a tax I used to pay when I caught a plane.
568, I’d go further: “Bliss it was in that dawn to be alive, but to be young was very heaven” (Wordsworth, for the philistines). Great to see my teenage daughter and her generation enjoying the moment. Even the dog had the tee shirt. Reminiscent of 1972 for the older generation.
Yes Grog, I could watch his speeches all day, especially when he hits his straps, there is no-one comparable. Thank god for youtube
Maybe we will see a Forde and Mark Vaile will skate into the leadership.
#571 Revenge is a dish best served cold.
I’ll wait with relish to hear PJK’s comments on Howard but especially Costello.
Oh day of days.
566
Speaking of trees…. the Great Southern Cross Project plans to establish two trillion trees in the next twenty years.
Impossible?…….not in a positive society!
561 Sean, I think you’re right about Costello being lazy. I spoke during the week to a guy who was a Ministerial adviser in 97-98 and said the same thing.
Kim Beazley should be allowed one final slap at Costello, the cr*p he had to go through about not having the ticker.
So I think we can say this election will be remembered for a lot of things, but 2 of them will be:
Howard losing his seat; and
Costello losing any credibility.
So I guess this was a victory for the true believers after all.
Who do you trust to lead the opposition? Don’t try someone who has no experience in the job! This is glorious!
#572 who would have thought we would all be in Mal Frasiers camp?
I reckon within the next year, Barnaby Joyce should challenge Mark Vaile for the Nats leadership! I would pay to see that!
Viggo, oh the irony.
574 DavidS – even better when you have 2 young kids, knowing they’re going to grow up in an Australia to be truly proud of.
Hey, check this out for sour grapes in my seat of Macarthur… He hasn’t even lost and he is whinging. http://camden.yourguide.com.au/news/local/general/pat-speaks-of-his-disappointment/1092338.html
Today Tonight had a coup last monday – the condemned – lolololololololololol
There were some surprises on election night. I wasn’t expecting Labor to win Dawson and there were some big swings on the NSW North Coast to Labor. Perhaps the results in this election were the worst for the National Party.
Can’t Penny Wong just proscribe the Liberal Party as a terrorist organisation, and put them out of their misery?
KJin, you’re spouting nonsense caricatures about the Greens. Go and have a nice cup of tea, and a quiet lie down.
What a gutless wimp Costello has really proven himself to be. And I’m with Grog…the low altitude flyer has just crashed.
Why not Joe Hockey for Liberal leader (once he stops blubbering)?
I don’t think Turnbull has enough party room support, neither does Nelson…and considering that his great mate Kevin is now the Prime Minister, the affable Hockey would be a latter-day Peacock in 1983.
Certainly a better choice than just about anybody else left in the federal Liberal party at the moment…
Costello doesn’t have the heart to do what Beazley did for Labor after 96. Or should I say he lacks the ticker.
Turnbull would make a worthy opponent for Rudd – indeed he’d come across as more passionate and empathetic than Rudd. But his seat is marginal: that will play on Libs minds for some time now. Ditto for Pyne etc.
The Senate looks v.tough for Labor, though I doubt Rudd is losing much sleep over it. The Coalition will have to use its ’swill’ carefully because it will fear an early election with its margins now whittled down.
From the SMH:
Mr Costello looked strained as he and his wife, Tayna, walked into today’s press conference.
Tears appeared to brim in his eyes as he announced that his time in politics was coming to an end.
He seemed to regain a level of comfort only when he started to retreat into the same political rhetoric about the Liberal government’s achievements while in power.
Says it all really. “Political rhetoric”. What a great legacy, Tip.
Glenn Milne is so plugged into what’s happening in Australian politics. This is from his piece today:
“There is unlikely to be any credible challenge to Mr Costello when he formally stands as leader at the first Liberal Party caucus meeting.”
Well, if the Libs can’t prove that it was just a rogue poll and the result has to stand, I think we should name a new electorate in John Howards honour in the recognition of all his years of service. Obviously it should be a safe Coalition area so as to ensure that the Libs can have the sitting member. I beleive that this is only fitting after the great things this man has done for this nation and in recognition of the level of service given by John Winston Howard, I beleive that the only truly apt name for this new electorate will be “BRUCED”!
KJin,
might be worth remembering that Green’s preferences got Howard out of office. Aoart from that, enjoy your unjustified resentment.
Thank god for WA!
#574 -
“Great to see my teenage daughter and her generation enjoying the moment.”
If she’s a typical example of her generation, then perhaps we do need an education revolution. Unless you’ve been filling her empty little head with Lefty bilge, which is tantamount to child abuse.
Anyway, Krudd-lickers, enjoy your moment of glory. With all your hubris, Krudd’s unsuitability for the job of PM, and the rabble behind him jockeying for power, it will be a very fleeting moment indeed.
Speaking of National Party, how long before the agrarian socialists disappear up their collective a###
593 ShowsOn LMFAO!!!!!!!
Great post.
Glen(s) and Steven K,
did Janette give you a break from packing?
jen @ 595
Most of the green vote would have come from the Labor left. It was Rudd pulling the missle vote which won him the election.
Glen, you’re back!!!!!!
Yeah, it really helped your mob big time.
The election was already over before counting started there.
Oh, and by the way Glen, I told you Mal Brough would lose he seat, but you refused to believe me.
The sooner the better.
Still waiting on your response to #58, Steven Kaye.
Your credibility is currently sitting around -38.
You were completely wrong, weren’t you?
A simple yes is all that is required.
G’day Glen, good on you for popping up.
Steven Kaye, you sound like a very small unintelligent man. The sort that might try to boo a journo at the Press Club or eat a party’s from the inside out. Take it easy man, and have a rethink of your tactics. They obviously aint working.
Steven Kaye
You strike me as a bitter and sad character. I suspect you’ve got lots of issues in life to deal with. Glad we could give you another one last night..
597, Steven Kaye, If I ever being to have a concern that the Libs will get back in, I will just have a re-read of your posts today.
Pathetic
Even Bolt declared the ALP is getting a shirtload of talent comming into parliament.
And do you think Bolt knew about Tip not standing? He really got off the Costello wagon this morning…
601
“missle vote”?
590,Hockey would throw all the good work on obesity out the window,he would legislate for free Maccas every Wenesday.
AEC showing 74.5% counted. 2PP vote 53.4/46.6.
The dog dogs it eh?
Pete, I found your spine – it’s in this box of matches.
Tim Gartrell was asked by Oakes this morning what the result would have been if the libs had gone for Smirker. No hesitation – it would have been worse for the government.
Low altitute flyer alright. Hand it to me on a platter or I’m simply not interested. The trashing of his record will go hand in hand with the trashing of Howards, and frankly I think Costello deserves it even more. Stood for nothing except being handed the Prime Ministership without ever having had the cajones to actually get it. Howard had him figured out long ago – probably fed the all Tip line to Keating.
sorry middle vote
or swing vote
Sturt showing 76.5% counted.
Pyne: 36,280
Handshin: 36,201
612 -thought so.
Makes me feel better about my own typing.
I think the smirk has made a smart decision for himself considering the options. Let someone else do the dirty work plus the lib loss was the rodent’s fault. Let someone else ride the broken bike (Daws and Clark I am sure will have a treat for us on Thurs).
509 is right: if the Greens didn’t exist Labor would have to invent them. But it’s an odd and barely symbiotic relationship. Rudd can tack to the centre-right, happy in the knowledge left-wing voters he loses to the Greens come back in preferences.
The Greens in the Senate will quickly learn they can stymie Labor measures – and hence exact greater leverage – if they start dealing with the Coalition. Whether the Coalition will want to be so associated is another matter.
NO MORE COSTELLO!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/costello-wont-stand-for-leadership/2007/11/25/1195947541163.html
Libs losing ground in McEwen:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22818226-29277,00.html
Sarah @ 616
I expect that had Costello taken over the swing would have been 8% rather than 6%. Costello was impossible to sell and Howard was a better choice to go to the election with.
Every position the greens have, is just a Labour point with a unrealistic Halo
A poster up above had it right Greens and their voters are just useful idiots.
My wife votes greens. SAVE THE TREES-Screw the workers
I hope tories can hold Dickson (Dutton) and Bowman (Laming) i really do, the last thing we want is to have less than 60 seats in Parliament. The last thing i want is less talent in the Liberal Party as well as we are heading into the valley of tears (though i did not shed one last night, i was pissed off but i like Downer on Insiders explained saw it coming a mile away so it didn’t hurt as much).
While i didn’t say the tories would win for sure i said it was possible my prediction of a possible win was therefore incorrect, as was my prediction of 78 seats.
Actually ShowsOn it did and we should have a net gain of 1 seat.
Thus WA is a Tory rock now soon to be 11 seats out of 15.
Yes i refused to believe they’d vote for a nobody instead of the much like Mal Brough. I fear the people of Longman have been sold a pig in a poke if u ask me.
Basil i posted last night at 2am half german half english and a bit of Julie Bishop thrown in for good measure.
I seriously dont want Pyne as Deputy, Julie forever Pyne NEVER!
Personally i think Rudd has a mandate to do what the people elected him to do as much as i may disagree with some of his policies the people voted for them the last thing i want is the Watermelons influencing policy but alas that seems inevitable next July.
Getting sunburnt and tired doesn’t feel too great when you get pumped but u gota take the sweet with the bitter and as i told ya’ll last week tonight im watching ‘Downfall’ instead of ‘Its a wonderful life’.
Anybody know updated results from: Dickson
Bennelong
Solomon
Swan
Poem read out by Costello’s wife at press conference. “Yeh live, yeh love, yeh learn; an’ when yeh come / To square the ledger in some thortful hour / The everlastin’ answer to the sum / Must allus be, ‘Where’s sense in gittin’ sour?’”
I think labor ’squaring the legder’ is what Tip feared most.
JULIE BISHOP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Fran Bailey
Going, going,….
Basil Fawlty Says:
November 25th, 2007 at 1:44 pm
Speaking of National Party, how long before the agrarian socialists disappear up their collective a###
I’ll first declare my interest…I’m a NSW Upper House member for the Nats. Whilst I come on to this site most days I was unable to make comment leading up to the election.
The answer to your question is: We are not going anywhere…
I knew it had to arise, the old rehearsal that we are headed for extinction.
We had a net loss of one, suffering in the swing in Queensland, and obviously on the northern NSW coast.
In the circumstances of this election that is not too bad at all IMO.
Trev
Glen Updates from Bennelong
You are still in DENIAL.
Stick it up your ass Ave It 07. We won. You lost. You were wrong. Really really wrong. Hubris * 100
What do you mean denial, its all over K Jin i accept that?
K Jin,
so this is actually about your marriage.
I completely understand – i used to be married to labor voter.
I think that Howard, Downer and Hill (and maybe a few others) should be shipped off immediately to the International Criminal Court. I know this sounds harsh but weren’t the Siev-x and the Tampa refugees made an example of to discourage the others. Maybe putting OUR war criminals on trial would discourage any future Australian government committing the country to illegal wars. Iraq at the moment is just one step short of a genocide and we have to shoulder our burden of guilt.
Is Pyne safe yet?
@ 621 K Jin Says:
Having to cook your own tea these days are you?
Why do you want updates from Bennelong even the old man know he has gone.
So has anyone been able to answer Bolt’s question: What do the Libs stand for?
Kim Beazley a while back said this election was the most crucial for a generation.
If the ALP lost, they would struggle to get back in power in Canberra for another 6 years. (Howard would retire, new leadership etc, Brough and Co would still be around, heaps of confidence, referendum on LIberal way of doing things.. etc etc)
And if the Libs lost, they are out everywhere, and don’t have the great broad union/ALP base to fall back on.
Well the Libs lost, and the rats are jumping ship pretty quick:
My picks to retire:
Costello (of course), Downer, Ruddock, Coonan… must be others.
At hits rate they’ll need to have stars like Sophie Mirabella on the front bench lol.
BENNELONG UPDATE:
Howard gone
KIRRIBILI UPDATE:
Howard gone
Trevor Khan,
Haven’t the Nationals had a net loss of 2 seats (Dawson and Page)? Unless you’re counting Calare as an independent gain?
And what about Flynn – a notionally Nationals seat that is now held by Labor?
1996 – 2004 they stood for whatever it took to retain government.
2004 – 2007 they didn’t stand for anything, because the things they stood for didn’t enable them to remain in government.
Would be interested in seeing a statistical tracking of where ex-Dems went. I assume that most went to either Lab or Greens, the key issue being that about half of their second prefs did not bleed back to Libs as per previous elections. This would account for a percent or two of the swing to Lab. Howard’s battlers deserted him when they realized that he intend to create more of them – another per cent or two. The race dog whistle tunes (Haneef, Sudanese migrants, Lindsay) were no longer enough to whistle up this mob. Subsets of the battlers would be workers and AWAs and social security recipients who were being globalised back into the workforce when they were not ready for it. More percent(s) came from wets who finally protested against moral bankruptcy. Lab needed to head for the centre to attract these wets. The battlers and social security mob had no where else to go. While true that Green prefs made a systemic difference, the reality is that they had nowhere else to go. They were certainly not going to go to a Government where the Deputy Leader was still denying climate change and the Leader opining that it was not the end of the Earth. Right or wrong, lots of Greens think it will come close to being just that. As for younger voters, lots of them in first jobs, at uni (hecs, end of all sorts of student union facilities et cetera), part-time and temp jobs, earning in industries (eg hospitality) which were always going to go for the throat on employment conditions and pay rates via AWAs. Nowhere for these folk to go except to Lab, perhaps via Green second prefs. Last clincher for young folk, H had had his 15 minutes of fame. Time to be moving right along in the world of the 30 sec sound bite. Finally, minorities who had been emotionally bashed about by Anglo-Saxon triumphalism and sundry related dog whistle exhibitions for the past ten years overcame other interests to remind folk that in some electorates they essentially constitute the difference between victory and defeat of the main candidates.
What a beautiful day
Just a few things
Costello has partially made the right decision today, the Libs need a new approach and he can’t provide it. I would hate to see him doing work outside of politics while he is an MP though so the right thing to do is to quit fully alhough i guess you can’t do that the day after the election. I agree he is gutless in that he had to challenge Howard last year instead of just carrying on about it, didn’t have the numbers but should’ve had a crack
Nick Minchin was very good last night, must have been incredibly hard sitting there with Julia, especially with all the cheering she was getting. He was very gracious in defeat
Hopefully the senate numbers will change, otherwise SA or Vic will be the places to live. I can’t see either Fielding or Nick X voting against too many things, it’s highly unlikely they would want a double dissolution
Thanks to William for running the site, it’s been sensational , keep it up
Congrats to all those that won with bets, for those with the $100 free bet i’ll look forward to hearing about what you’ll bet on to free up your winnings
Congrats to the unions and all union members that have paid the levy, made donations, marched, etc – your efforts played a HUGE part in this result
and finally, Well done Kevin, Julia and the team – campaign was focussed and on message the whole way through. Me too worked a treat and to screw Howard over by stopping spending a week and a bit out, well saying you would even if you didn’t, was a stroke of brilliance.
WAHOO
Bennelong can be pretty much called. 47 of 48 booths counted.
McKew: 37,101
Howard: 34,472
A few people on here will be collecting a few bucks from Michael Sullivan.
How good was it that the Nationals lost Dawson!
Not having to hear De-Anne Kelly will improve parliament immeasurably.
And now for the Hillary campaign starting in Iowa Jan 3rd. Here is the latest: http://www.electoral-vote.com
The Liberals have people like Petro Georgiou and Marise Payne – it’s just a pity they’re not running the party.
A strong economy (budget surplus’s, fiscal conservatism, tax cuts)
Strong national security (border protection, regional security in pacific/asia, fighting the war on terror)
Education (supporting independent as well as public schools and not starting class warfare, making it easier to chose where your child can go to school, better teaching standards, performance based pay for teachers)
EWPR (full employment, flexibility in the workplace, no unfair dismissal laws but with a safety net to prevent abuses)
Health (hospital boards, private health insurance rebate, medicare safety-net)
There is more Grog but there you go to answer Bolts question.
Well at least we have Julie Bishop and Malcolm Turnbull they’ll be our new leadership team with Malcolm as leader i think.
I wonder how long it will take for Marise Payne to cross the floor. I imagine there will be a lot of Labor legislation that she would like to support.
Prime Minister Rudd is on TV now…
Maybe the Libs should put an ad in the paper for a new leader.
Can’t see any reasonable candidates among the survivors.
God I hope Pyne loses – fancy wanting to be deputy leader before you’ve even confirmed that you’ve won your seat!
HAHHAHAAHH their health policy includes the Mersey Hospital take over which couldn’t even buy a seat.
A ‘comtemptible act of national cretinism’, says Mr Kaye. It reminds me of a quote from the great Professor Allan Bullock, in Hitler, A Study in Tyranny – went something like this:
” Nazi Germany was a ‘cesspool of vice and depravity’ marked by ‘moral and intellectual cretinism’. ” Sounds a bit like the Liberal Party at the moment, especially in NSW. Blame the Lindsay Leafleteers, for The Rodent’s seat loss – he had a chance of hanging on to his own seat prior to that).
Our former PM only has himself to blame for his ideological class war against workers and their unions, which had the effect of mobilising about a million unionists against him, which then acted as a lightning rod for other issues, like interest rates and petrol prices, which hit 1.49 in Sydney days before the poll.
At my booth weren’t the Libs disturbed by Climate Change Coalition, the Greens and Get Up! Poor Lib blue-rinser couldn’t understand that a ‘Coalition’ could actually be anything but two political parties, but an amalgam of groups coming together for a common purpose ( something like a partnership) – it was the classic metaphor for generational change which Rudd presented and the Libs couldn’t do by running with the ‘Rodent/Smirk ‘team’.
The only thing that looked like a ‘team’ in this election was Rudd/Gillard, the ‘dream team’, as Gerard Henderson said a couple of years ago. And who will ever forget Saint Maxine? A Labor Saint she be, in Yoda speak. Did Peter Garrett ever get mobbed like she did last night?
As Jackie Gleeson said: “How Sweet it is”.
The Libs just looked ‘off the bit’ through most of the campaign – when they got no bounce from the Budget, Crosby Textor certainly knew they were in deep trouble.
Kevvie may have to risk a DD if he really wants to get Work Choices repeal up within 6 months though. Maybe he’ll wait until the new Senate takes its place in July next year, but he may not wait that long. A DD might actually be sensible earlier in 08 if there is a US recession looming, as it may not bite here until the second half of next year, if at all. He may punt on it not biting and just put up with a hostile Senate, but it will be a tough call.
When the final seat count comes in, I will e-mail you William for payment method, as Labor will no doubt have a few more than 80 seats in the new parliament and I pledged $20 for each seat above 80 and happy to cough up on this undertaking. ( oh yea of little faith in the likes of William and other learned Psephs like the Possum – whom I understand has a ‘day job’ and must therefore remain mysteriously anonymous, despite legions of faithful followers – write a book and wear a mask like Zorro and you will make millions Possum!)
Too bad the Daily Double of Bennelong/Wentworth didn’t get up too, but that might always have been a bit of a fantasy, given Malcolm’s financial resources. The Newhouse campaign did not go well, but for Malcolm to get a 1% swing to him ( AEC says .84% at the moment) was extraordinary, given the swing against Howard in Bennelong in particular – I doubt Maxine would have beaten Malcolm, but she had the bigger fish to fry – and what a catch it was!
All you misguided green posters. Did you not watch the TV last night. The party for the Pulp Mill beat the other Party for the Pulp Mill. The party against the Plup Mill got about what 4 to 6 percent ?. Personally I think the pulp Mill looks a bad idea but I have never been to Tassie So I realise me having any position ion it s like me having a position on wage levels in South Africa.
PS My wife is just making Lunch
PPS I do not let her see these posts.
George Mega’s comments this morning about some of the nasty people in the Libs weaves into a greater story about how the Liberal Party has become a party of hate. It now attracts the worst of the religious nutters, the rascists, the xenophobic twits and sundry hangers on, many of them One Nation supporters who found a new home after that party collapsed.
The Liberals have found themselves unelectable in state elections because of these extremists that have overrun the organisation. Unfortunately this weak opposition has been to the detriment of good Government in many states. I am sure that the Iemma Government would not be in power in NSW if there was a competent and stable opposition that held them to account.
Where to now for the Liberal Party. If you listened to Andrew Bolt’s last remark this morning on The Insiders he was pessimistic the Liberal Party will exist to much longer. Whilst not going that far I would hope that the Conservatives look much closer at Libertarian style politics as a basis for a ideological basis to their party. What really destroyed this government was the handout mentality and some terrible middle class welfare decisions by Howard. By going down the Libertarian route I hope it gives the Libs a chance to distance themselves from the religious and rascist nutters that now infect Tory politics.
653, zedder spot on about the party of hate.
eg. Sophie Mirrabella in Question Time on 18 September 2007 taunting Albanese:
Mrs Mirabella—Mr Speaker, I rise on a point of order. I am not aware that there is any minister in this House that goes by the title of ‘envinement’. If there is, could you please—
To say something like that in the Australian Parliament shows an amazing amount of contempt. Pity she’s in such a safe seat.
Potential Leaders of Liberal Party:
Malcolm Turnbull
Julie Bishop
that’s about it the rest are outa there
The Unions own the Liberal party. Seriously, you ran so hard on an anti union line and you could not even sure up some of your safe seats. The Liberals are just a bunch of losers who got owned by the Unions in this campaign.
“Swing Lowe Says:
November 25th, 2007 at 2:03 pm
Trevor Khan,
Haven’t the Nationals had a net loss of 2 seats (Dawson and Page)? Unless you’re counting Calare as an independent gain?
And what about Flynn – a notionally Nationals seat that is now held by Labor?”
SL, I take your point, but I do consider Calare a gain.
Flynn is a disappointment, but when you consider what has happened in Queensland you can hardly put it down to anything but the overall swing in that state.
Trev
652
re keeping wife away from posts.
you are wiser than I suspected!
I wonder if Dennis Shanahan will now concede that the polls indicate that John Howard may now actually lose, or is he going to keep himself surrounded by fantasy?
And how does Glenn Milne, aka the poisoned dwarf, feel now that his man Costello has been kicked out of government and taken his bat and ball and gone home?
Glenn fancied himself as not just a journalist but an actual power player in the big political game. Maybe you should be grateful Glenn just to be a journalist, as you’re lucky to still have a job.
“Someone asked for a conservative view on where it went wrong.
-Workchoices: too much reform, too fast
In all seriousness, don’t fall for the view that you just didn’t sell it properly. That would be a serious mistake.
It was the wrong kind of reform. It will never be accepted in this country. Go back to the drawing board.”
I completely agree, given that this was the first opportunity the electorate had to express its view of workchoices I would say it is a complete rejection of its changes.
If you listened to the Liberal view about how well we were all doing, it was an actof ultimate stupidity (and probably greed) by the harder right of the party to punish workers for their contribution to our increasing national wealth. Totally small minded legislation and completely at odds with the Liberals own view that the trickle down affect of improving wealth via the private secotr would benefit us all.
An analogy…..I give you $1,000,000 to mind and manage until I need it, say for retirement. Approaching the day you recall the many years of good lifestyle you have had living off my management fees. When I ask for it back, you say “I’ve changed my mind, how about I let you have half of it back and we split the rest among me and my mates who after all helped too” ….Dont think so.
I have to admit to favoring industrial democracy, loyal workers that make the business successful deserve a slice of ownership in my book, unfortunately Im in the minority
AJ II
Zedder.
Do you really think that Morrison (Cook) and Hawke (Mitchell) are about to let that happen?
The Libs should put out some ads on TV with whatever money they can get from Malcolm Turnbull to run this week with Joe McDonald and Kevin Rynolds saying ‘we’re coming back and tell em to f off’ that would be funny lol!
Labor now in front in McEwen. Could be 4 wins for them in Vic
Serenity NOW!
I read that the rodent was out an about on his routine walk this morning. Shouldn’t he be packing? Will someone please tell these squatters to get the f*ck out of our house!
Trevor Khan,
So you’re a bunch of Political Change as well Climate Change deniers?
Yesterday when handing out how to vote cards I found the Liberals to just be brain dead, and completely unaware of who or what they were actually promoting.
The real nut cases were the volunteers from Family First. They repeatedly made derogatory comments about people who refused to take their How to Vote cards, and even accused the Labor candidate of being a drug addict.
There must be a few journos around who have now lost some seriously good contacts…
(and a few like Michael Brissendon who must be laughing their a**es off)
I just luv Lib Thug Barry Cassidy Carrying on about Julia. How Rudds win is already undermined. Expect Cassidy in his role as former adviser to Bob Hawke to appear in the 2010 election adds for the Libs ‘Rudd cannot stand up to the ABC board He could not save me’
I notice that they myth making has already started.
There are strengths in the economy, but a balanced assessment of the economy would need to consider: The gross size of the national debt (note that the debt truck did not get a run in this election), the age structure of the workforce, the skills structure of the workforce, the loss of about(?) 1 million Aussies to overseas economies, the persistent balance of trade deficits, an ageing infrastructure with serious bottlenecks, the suburban settlement patterns (not amenable to rapid restructuring to meet climate change drivers), the lack of economic diversification due to major losses in the manufacturing sector, the deterioration in some sectors of education (eg low entry scores for science and maths disciplines), 62% of the population being on the public purse to some extent, decreasing self-reliance in oil, the erosion of the tax base and the dangerous over-reliance on favourable terms of trade which will disappear when the Chinese economy stops growing at 10 per cent a year, as it will.
Beware the myth makers.
Glen: OWNED.
Barrie Cassidy may be a thug (who knows) but he is not a Lib, surely?
Or is there something about Hawke we don’t know …
SC in Fiji have some respect you scumbag Howard was the second longest serving PM in our History is it too much to ask for to have some respect for him!
ShowsOn the Greens and Labor were handing out HTV cards less than 6m from the booth so we put them on a mobile phone video and they said it was harrasment lol.
Any serious chance of anyone but Turnbull getting the Lib leadership?
The difference between Howard and Rudd is that Rudd can afford a House on Sydney Harbour. Howard needed the people to pay for his. Talk about middle cast welfare
Julie Bishop has more experience than Malcolm Dyno she could be a shot id say.
The Labor machine – in government – would destroy her.
K Jin, calm down he didn’t suggest Rudd’s win was undermined. He merely reported what we all sawlast night – until 11pm it was all about Julia and Maxine.
Look Barry got snippy about Rudd not comming on his show, but he did predict the ALP would win, and win well. He’s a believer.
.
.
.
Just listening to Tip on the ABC. geez going on about the future fund.
Just p*ss off. If he’s so worried about defending it, step up to the plate.
WHO ELSE is there #674? Maybe they could move Bill Heffernan out of the Senate into a safe Liberal seat? Or perhaps give it to Danna Vale or Pat Farmer? hahahaha.
Glen, you’re a brave and resilient character and I hope you get a decent leader soon. However it’s hard to see who from the current crop …
The Prime Minister Kevin Rudd gave an impressive performance in front of the press. This PM clearly has an appetite for hard work and will implement his agenda with verve. No senior public servant will be able to run rings around himcos he knows all the tricks.
ShowsOn they’ve got nothing on her, she’s politically clean no matter what the teachers Unions say or do.
Julie Bishop or Brendan Nelson, Malcolm wont want a pumping in 2010.
since when does length of service = amount of respect due? you are confusing quantity with quality. howard will be judged on his deeds, and the verdict won’t be favourable.
Albert – #661, absolutely not. Wrong candidates and wrong policies. The Liberals must provide product differentiation and I would hope that libertarian policies provide that choice. Someone with policies like Arnold Schwarzenegger provides the template of a libertarian style Tory candidature.
The way things are headed I can only see the Liberals out of power for another generation. Ask the Queensland Nats how that feels…
Except Sir Humphrey Appleby, Tory Crimes lol
Howard’s a better person than most of his detractors in my view.
I certainly didn’t agree with a number of things he did, but I’d struggle to see the average pollie turn up and give an off-the-cuff, 15 minute concession speech as good as last night’s.
I reckon he’s just figuring – “none of this is my problem any more”. Which no doubt brings an element of relief with the disappointment.
Will be interesting to see if he gets the classic ex-PM syndrome – our last three ex-PMs all seem to have had personal upheavals after politics.
Watching Costello’s press conference I can only think how lucky we are not to have had him as PM.
Danna Vale for Leader. She could really combat the ALP on climate change.
I forgot to add what a great 24 hours ALP to power, Liverpool win, and that rat ba#stard costello has all but quit politics. What a gutless, insipid damp squib he turned out to be.
I just turned on the ABC to watch the scheduled “Heaven on Earth: The Rise and Fall of Socialism”, and there was Kevin Rudd!
The verdict wont be favourable if it were written by you, but if you read the editorials and see what they list as Howards achievements they deserve respect as far as im concerned.
Jeanette will leave John. She is a power hungry. She will move on to the next power man.
She can’t match up against the heavy hitters on the Labor side in parliament. She would need Tony Abbott to protect her all the time which would just make her look weak.
Forget about it Glen, she is a MAYBE deputy leader to go against Gillard. But that’s about it.
It’s happening already! More rain!
Brendan Nelson will be crucified in Parliament – Super Hornets anyone?
Turnbull is an aweful performer in Parliament.
Julie Bishop may be handed the poisoned chalice?
Glen I told you Brough could not win Longman
This is like a red rag to Turnbull’s bullish ego.*
He’ll become leader for sure and Labor will just demolish him at the next election. Then the NSW right will cannibalise him and install Hockey.
* I’m sure I could have come up with a better pun but I’m not in the mood for thinking on THIS particular Sunday
The biggest taxing, and biggest spending government of all time.
Megalogenis summed it up well, it was the Frequent Flyer government, that just wasted the boom.
I’m still amazed by the results! Never in my wildest dreams did I think Labor could win seats like Longman, Forde and Petrie! Both Rudd and Howard were very dignified last night, although the Rodent’s concession speech was spoilt by those drunken Young Libs in the audience(that must have been where Steven Kaye and Nostrodamus were hanging out LOL).
Captain Smirky: gutless wanker! I guess it’ll be between Turnball and Nelson?
Glen: I feel bad for you! You’re a good conservative. What the Liberals need is some urgent reflection and renewal!
Glen
Check out
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-13745-105.htm.
They have constant updates.
hockey aint a member of the right.
678
Grog Says:
Folks where switching channels last night so I missed that it was all about Julia and Maxine. Until 11.00 (10 pm QLD TIME THE NEW STANDARD TIME) I thought is was all about Howard and then and now is was about Rudd. In the news conference just on Sky I must have looked away when Julia was featured. Barry Cassidy is the new Piers
Who is a heavy hitter on the Labor side, Tony Burke, Nicola Roxon good luck all you have is Albanese and Tanner, Swan is weak as piss LOL?
Anyway we’ll have Abbott as headkicker…Anyway she could still call Kevin a naughty boy and go to the naughty corner LOL!
Then all we got is Nelson and Turnbull according to you hmmmmmmmm.
slackboy,
Labor’s ability to demolish anyone will depend on the economy.
Stay tuned to the sub-prime crisis in the US – if it gets big, Labor will struggle.
Glen at 673
You sir are the scumbag for supporting such a morally bankrupt, disgustingly selfish excuse for a human being. Just because he served for 11 years doesn’t mean he deserved to, you prat. He was f*cking peoples lives while you were getting your blue ribbon ar*e wiped by your Volvo driving mummy.
The people of Australia have spoken so, again, get that dirty dog turd of my carpet, I just got it cleaned yesterday….oh, and Glen…do go f*ck yourself.
Thanks ViggoP
HH i agree with you we do need renewal and fast maybe it was better Cossie bowed out we can have a fresh start in the Valley of Tears.
ohhh my aching head! i couldnt sleep so i stayed up all night and watched the Insiders and the ch9 wrapup till 11 am, i’ve just had a nap and here i am– very much the worse for wear, i put $100 of my own money and my $100 free bet on Maxine so i guess i’ll have to wait and see if she brings home the bacon, i’m not used to this betting thingy, if she wins is there any suggestions on what i can bet my winnings for my free bet on? i think i read i’ll have to rebet it and how do i go about collecting my winnings? even if she loses it was worth it lol, she’ll get in when Howard officially resigns.
it looks like both Downer and Costello wont be sticking around, they both say they’ll serve their terms out but whats the bet they wont? the humiliation of sitting on the opposition benches will be too much for their pride.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/
Favorable editorials by tory toe-rags… That isn’t how the history books will assess the Howard legacy.
SC in Fiji @ 704,
Thanks for your well-thought out contribution!
Yep, Barry Cassidy looked very pissed off this morning! A good panel discussion though! Bolt is good value for a conservative, Meglogenis I’m always impressed with, and Lenore Taylor speaks a lot of sense.
The ABC coverage last night was only watchable because of Antony Green’s excellent work. The rest of the time was wasted on boring Liberal losers.
@ 676 Glen Says:
Or to put another way “the eyes have it”
But seriously I doubt if someone who is deliberately barren would be acceptable to the rump of the Parliamentary Liberal Party.
ShowsOn wasnt that a good display of Labor supporters and their manners like SC in Fiji…im glad he’s not on our side LOL!
M&Ms revenge
I am sure it will be analysed and dissected elsewhere, but the two most derided political forecasters in the country may well have demonstrated uncanny accuracy this election. The final Morgan poll predicted 53.5% ALP (current two party-preferred is 53.41%), and Malcolm Mackerras guessed 89 seats ALP, which is exactly the number in which they now lead the TPP.
Calm down “SC in Fiji”.
Glen – well done for showing up today – you’ve got more guts than Costello.
I expect my local member Ruddock won’t last the next 3 years, we’ll have a byelection in Berowra soon enough, and there will be a conga line of Liberals queueing up for this seat.
Albert Ross 710 – LOL!
Still she is an experienced Minister who would come across well i think and a massive change from Howard and Costello it could help but i see your point about ‘the eyes having it’.
Its between 3 really as i see.
Brendan Nelson
Julie Bishop
Malcolm Turnbull
Parliament is a lot easier when you sit to the right of the speaker’s chair.
If she does this she will just look like an idiot (again) and nobody will take her seriously.
Last night was nothing compared with what will happen if she is Liberal leader. Labor would get 55% 2pp and win over 100 seats.
According to me you’ve got nothing. Or more to the point, it doesn’t matter what you’ve got. For the next 5+ years Rudd can do as he likes, voters won’t pay much attention at all to whatever the Liberals say or do.
You are right Glen about the guy from Fiji. He was carrying on like a Lib at the Press Club last Thursday
Turnbull has got to be favourite for the leadership now. Bishop just doesn’t seem like leadership material (yet), Downer has too much baggage and is too old, Abbott has a nasty reputation as being the Coalition’s headkicker-in-chief whilst Nelson was fairly incompetent as Defence Minister.
Hockey would possibly be the other choice, but I fear that people will consider him too lightweight to be leader now. He also has the problem for being the former-Minister for “Workchoices”.
The best possible outcome for the Libs IMHO would be, however, a Turnbull-Hockey team (Turnbull as leader). That, of course, will never happen as the Victorian Libs will demand the deputy leadership, meaning some idiot like Hawker or Andrews will end up as deputy leader. It’s a pity for them that their best leadership prospects are all in NSW…
“stand for” has two meanings in our wonderful language.
Costello won’t stand for the Liberal Party leadership.
Nor will many others.
Howard Hater – Get Mal Brough down there!
And Labor supporters should be gracious in victory! I’m not going to sink the boot into Glen, we all should know how he’s feeling today!
I would expect someone like Kroger to stand in the Berowra by-election. He’s the sort of guy the Libs need in their parliamentary party…
Will the Libs lay off the Unions now and move elsewhere?
My prediction is…
Opp Leader: Malcolm Turnbull
Deputy Leader: Julie Bishop
I wonder if the Nats will roll Vaile he lost 3 seats (Flynn, Dawson and Page) he’s got to be held accountable for that get rid of him i reckon.
Glen: the local Liberal mayor has been eyeing off Berowra for some time.
I was shocked Mal Brough lost, didn’t see that one coming.
Oh please let it be Julie Bishop, she represents all that is out of touch with the Libs, transfered to the next generation.
What, to host a special episode of Family Feud?
722
Swing Lowe – Good observation, a possible choice but he’d probably want a Victorian seat.
The Nationals only have 10 seats now? Yep, Vaille ought to go today!
Replace him with Kay Hull!
Glen,
I’d expect Vaile to resign pretty soon as Nationals leader. I reckon there may be a decent chance that he’ll resign as MP for Lyne. Not sure about that though…
My God, the GG is a bitter mob of losers:
He (Barrie Cassidy) accused Kevin Rudd of deliberately avoiding scrutiny by any but the softest media and urged journalists to “declare war” on the Opposition Leader. I think it would have been in the national interest and in the best interests of voters if the nation’s journalists had risen to Cassidy’s challenge.
One senior journalist, I won’t say who, said to me yesterday: ‘We all know we have to go to war against Kevin Rudd as soon as the election campaign is over.’ Perhaps we should have declared it earlier.”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22810937-5013596,00.html
If 1983 is any guide, they will talk about unions in parliament more than any other issue. It is the only thing that binds them that they will all be willing to debate about.
On all other issues they will be in disarray.
Costello just said in a replay of his NC ‘Many people have asked me to become the leader in the last 24 hours after discussing this with my Family and my wife who is here next to me’
Has he quit now because the bigamy scandel was about to break ??
Qld was interesting. Thing is, out of 29 seats in Qld, there’s always going to be about 20 marginal(ish) ones. More than half of which are now Labor-held.
Maybe the Libs’ best attack on Rudd would be to accuse him of not really being a Qlder!
Swing Lowe – but Kroger is a Costello man isn’t he?
HH not sure what you’re on about with Barry Cassidy. I’m watching Insiders again and he looks no different at all.
Does anyone have the link to teh article he did predicting an Rudd win – he was very confident.
Seeing Mal Brough concede was probably the worst moment of the night for me, that’s went it came home that we were finished and i really felt for Mal.
He for one didnt deserve to lose his seat, say what you will about the Stuart Henry’s and Ross Vastas and Gary Hardgraves but Mal Brough didn’t deserve to lose, that was probably the worst part of the night for me anyway
Come on, you can`t just turn up here and tell Glen where to go. He`s an institution…of sorts.
Telling the Howards where to go, and how quickly? No problem.
Sorry Glen and other Tory apologists imo Howard and co have debased the polity of this country in ways that we havent even seen yet. It will take a while for Rudd and Labor to change things. the former PM appealed to the baser instincts of peoples nature, stoked racism, oversaw massive transfers of public $ to people who neded it least, squeezed wokers who trusted him, and his Canute like stubborness on climate change has put this country behind the 8 ball environmentally.
Glen,
You’re doing well to turn up here today: credit to you.
I know how you’re feeling, man: ‘96 hurt for a long time.
K Jin @ 733,
Either tell us more, or don’t drop in with this kind of rubbish!
Tony Abbott as Leader
Alex Hawke as Deputy and Treasurer
Kevin Andrews as Foreign Affairs
Sophie M as Health
oh i can’t go on
Cassidy will be on insiders an enemy of RUDD so he should be crushed.
WTF happened in Dawson? Work Choices must have bitten hard up there.
North QLD was a disaster for the Coalition, although they may hang on to Herbert.
There was a lot of noise at my party so I may have missed it, but I don’t recall heaing Antony refer to a Nantucket sleigh ride…
Glen,
The only problem regarding to Kroger finding a seat in Victoria is trying to find a vacant seat there for him. The only seat that I see could be suitable for him (I’m sure they’ll want to parachute him into a safe seat) is Wannon, where Hawker may resign. However, I’m not sure if Kroger wants to be a representative for a rural seat…
I think he deserved to lose, because he didn’t win enough votes.
“Desert” is something you eat after dinner, he has nothing to do with who should and shouldn’t win an election.
TC @ 738,
There’ll be plenty of opportunities for the new shiny Govt to tap into people’s baser instincts. I reckon they’ll take up at least some of those opportunities!
But I’ll be happy to be proven wrong over time.
Costello’s record is impressive. He is 11 1/2 per cent TIP and 0 per cent BERG
Perhaps Brough didn’t spend enough time shoring up his seat because he was too busy with the aboriginal intervention policy? Or was it a demographic thing in Longman?
# 673 – Glen, I respect you for showing up here today. But Howard deserves no such thing. He is a man characterised by mendacity, small-mindedness and spite. He has no saving graces and I look forward to his legacy rotting on the garbage heap of history. If I never hear his voice again, it will be too soon.
I bet by mid 2008, there will be byelections in Higgins, Mayo and Berowra.
John Hunt, he sought to keep the Berg between the stated 2-3% band.
I felt bad about Brough losing his seat, because its one more nail in the idea of one day having a sensible Liberal party. The less Brough’s there are and the more Alex Hawkes, the more stuffed the Libs will be, and nothing should be of bigger concern for either party that the idea of a government that is unaccountable due to ineptitude of opposition
I was so scared when old Stewie McArthur lost Corangomite.
we’ve been told for weeks that he was the only person who could control crime on the streets and hoons.
as Clarke and Daw would say:
boooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
HH @ 749,
Single mums apparently. Longman has one of the highest proportions of single mums. Evidently Brough made some off-the-cuff comment about them that didn’t go down too well.
Mal Brough didn’t deserve to lose – he seemed like a competent performer and a decent minister. Hopefully (for the Libs’ sake), he re-enters politics soon, either at a state or federal level.
However, the person I felt the most sorry for last night was Hockey. If anyone doubted his commitment and passion for the Liberal cause, such doubts would have been dispelled last night. What I think, though, is that Hockey will use this experience to set him on a path ultimately towards the Liberal leadership.
Last night, I think I saw the next great leader of the Liberal party – and his name was Joe Hockey.
If there is one Tory MP that you Laborites shouldnt hate its Mal but i guess in victory even some of you will be prepared to say he should have been dumped for a complete nobody. Mal was an innocent victim on Saturday and i think its a shame he’s gone, he will be sorely missed.
If as a Labour guy John Howard is my enemy. I think that reflects well on Australia. We have never had any left or right extremes come to power in Australia. Good on us and our forebears !!!
I think whoever gets the most votes should win.
It’s called DEMOCRACY.
Longman is safe Labor in a State context – Brough was against a well known local candidate and the swing was too great.
He only had a small margin, crushed by the swing. It really was obvious although I seem to be the only one who called it.
@ 722 Swing Lowe Says:
You obviously didn’t see his absolutely disgraceful performance on LL on Friday night.
To have someone who has never run for public office let alone achieve everything Bob Carr has done in his life to accuse Carr of suffering from “relevance deprivation” is the height of hubris.
The fellow is not worth a pinch of cold cocky turd.
Brough masterminded and trumpetef the welfare to work stuff, and was done in by it. All the single mothers in Caboolture decided they didnt like the sound of it.
cant blame them.
Brough has no one to blame but himself, Im afraid.
#745 How about Higgins?
756 SL,
I actually think big Joe might consider a transfer to the State arena, especially now Turnbull’s Federal path seems set (even if he doesn’t get leader now, he’ll roll Nelson or Bishop within three years).
Dyno- dog whistling to racists wont be one of them nor will ‘all middle eastern people are terrorists who will sacrifice their children wihout a second thought’
As a True labour Guy I do not think is a bad thing to have policies that try to stop young women have babies on welfare.
757- Innocent victim
No innocent victims Glen- every Lib voted 23 times for workchoices- every senator voted to guilotine debate and rush it through.
Every Lib contributed to thier government turning thier back on the Aussie battlers.
746 ShowsOn – spot on. In politics there is only one criteria for deserving to be an MP – getting enough votes.
Nicole Cornes was killed by the media because they didn’t think she deserved to be elected. BUt there is only one prerequisite for being an MP. That you got elected. PhD? MBA? Great personality? don’t mean squat.
And on Brough. Yes he may have his heart in the right place, but I don’t take the view that everything they’re doing in the NT is being done purely to help the kids. The Children are Sacred report has been mostly used as a cover to push a Liberal agenda, and they sold it as though if you don’t agree with it you must obviously be uncaring about kids.
Basically a slight variation on the you’re either with us or you’re for the terrorists line of a sales pitch.
Joe Hockey will never be PM. WorkChoices has tarnished him forever.
I hope Uncle Buck stays in Parliament, he’s a softer face of the Tories and we’ll need that if we’re to get back into office.
761 AR,
Day after day I get on this blog and see all sorts of people accuse Australia’s second-longest serving PM of all sorts of things. I have no problem with that, it’s called democracy and freedom of speech.
But tell me – why do you think Bob Carr (of all people!) deserves to be a protected species?
It’s not good for the Liberals when their only injection of new talent is a right wing religious fanatic in the shape of Alex Hawke.
Boll @ 763,
I’m going on the assumption that Costello will stick to his promise and not resign from parliament. Of course, if Higgins opens up, Kroger would be the favourite to stand there…
I;m sorry…am I being a “bad winner”? Yes, perhaps you’re right, Glen is an amazingly brave and inspiring character to front up this morning blah blah blah. Do you think the Libs stayed in for eleven years with this attitude. If they had won they’d be kicking our collective corpses around for the next six months and using their pathetic hacks to completely destroy what would be left.
How soon you all forget. I know…the forgiveness starts now, plllleeaasssee. I’m out of this love in. ALP had better toughen up or the evil will once again infiltrate.
Big air kisses to all. mwah, mwah
Shows you how fast the meadia cycle is now. Just on Sky now.
1st Story PM elect Rudd…….
2nd Costello ……
3rd John Howard ……
Swing Lowe id put money on your prediction.
Either that or Jeff Kennett maybe??
In hindsight, the ALP should have put Mia Handsin into Boothby/
I felt sorry for Nicole last night however, Tony Jones was fairly rude to her on the ABC.
Amen to that Snakeboy. I think Howard will suffer greatly from relevance deprevation syndrome, he will fade fast. Not fast enough for me Im afraid.
765 TC, Let’s see – as I said, time will tell. The Labor front bench is pretty untried and I reckon there are plenty of ways in which they could disgrace themselves.
Happy to be proven wrong in the fullness of time.
LTEP @ 769,
The one thing that saves Hockey from the “Workchoices” brush is that he wasn’t the minister that introduced Workchoices – Andrews was.
P.S. I’m going to miss having these conversations with you once this whole thing is over…
I’d like Abbott as leader (always have). Bishop for deputy.
Re: Dawson: The local paper made the Age look like a conservative rag, plus general swing, plus demographic change.
Her replacement seems a nice guy, but he is a buffoon. The local paper will protect him as much as possible, but I would put him a good chance of being a one termer.
To be fair to Nicole, she needed more grooming to be a candidate then she’d have performed better. It’s fairly evident the media partly cost her a chance to be an MP but Southcott has been from all reports a half decent member. Though he’ll no longer be able to partake in his renowned dorothy dixers lol!
Speaking of the GG, I wonder how Shanahan will spin the election result.
In a coup of stunning proportions, Mr. Howard has thrown down the gauntlet to Rudd and the Labor party. He has completely out manouvered his opponents showing skill and daring. The voters may have completely repudiated the Liberals and Howard, put a sword through their tiresome tirade of lies and conceit and consigned the Liberal party to years of unhappy opposition. But, Howard is still the leader when people are asked who is the better on economic manager.
And, that is clearly the most important finding from Saturday’s election.
Tony Jones Like Barry Cassidy needs to be finished off. Never heard from again.
All Power To the incoming Labour media adjustment squad.
780
Swing Lowe – dont worry the ACT election is next year!
Hockey had obviously been in denial all year about the result – Minchin knew what was coming, accepted it, and was able to smile.
Hoickey and his “my poor sacked staff” line, (echoed again by Downer this morning) is pathetic. Being a Minister is not a job for life, and if his staff didn’t realise it, then they must be as deluded as he is.
Glen,
Kennett will never be Liberal leader. Far too much “baggage” from his time as Victorian Premier…
Did you know that Hockey is in fact Joseph Benedict Hockey.
Named by his parents after one Joseph Benedict…….Chifley!!!
I wonder what they think of him?
Another thing is we can finally put this ‘economic manager’ thing to rest. Polling on economic management has nothing to do with the election outcome.
Joe Hockey Not the next Lib leader. The next Jenny Craig front guy.
A shame Rodney Cocks doesn’t seem to have won. How on earth could the folks of La Trobe reelect that Liberal imbecile Jason Wood?
And Hughes should be a labor seat – that one really confounds me!
Not leader but if Kroger doesn’t want it Kennett could get Higgins.
Glen @ 785,
Joy! We can see whether the Liberals can actually win an election in this country!!!
776 Glen, Jeff Kennet will need to first get rid of his moustache… I’m sure it was done for Movember, but geez it was a bad look!
Glen 785,
ACT Libs have no class. They booed Michelle Grattan at Howard’s NPC do. Jacqui Burke is a goose.
Still letting the victory soak in:
Rudd had to overcome.
1) A party whose perceived competence was grossly exaggerated by a mining boom.
2) A party with no moral compass so they where willing to use all the resources of govt to aid their own cause. Basic human rights where ignored to appeal to the darker side of some.
3) A party in control of both houses and willing to rush any wedge legislation through regards of its merits.
4) The ALP was massively out spent.
All this set against the backdrop of the healthiest economic environment Australia has ever enjoyed.
And the ALP won their biggest post-war victory. The Libs lost it. My faith in the decency of my country is restored.
In the 2010 election all of these key advantages will be gone. The mining boom is set to roll on until the end of the decade so the “Labor can’t manage the economy” line will be gone too.
Why did they lose? Many reasons, but the main two are Howard wanting one more term and framing workchoices to destroy the unions and thus the ALP power base.
It was an audacious attempt to permanently silence his opponent. Had it worked, had he won another term, the ALP the union movement would never have been able to mount another campain with the strength of 2007.
It failed and it may yet silence his own party.
How long before we see WorkChoices AWA data released?
Howard Hater, on current count Rodney Cocks is in front. That could swing back once postals and pre-polls are counted though. There’s only 400 votes in it at the moment.
Kroger is friends with Peter Costlelo, which means he will be extremely gutless, and thus an ideal candidate for Higgins.
HH,
Earlier today, http://www.news.com.au called La Trobe for Labor.
On the AEC website, Cocks is still up 50.3/49.7 on TPP…
@ 772 Howard Hater Says:
Don’t forget the other Hillsonger recipient of Liberal Govt largesse Scott Morrsion who squandered millions on the semi-pornographic “Where the bloddy hell are you” campaign.
I see from his website that he and his missus have recently spawned after 17 years of marriage. Just in time for the election and good for warding off malicious rumours,
786- Hockeys sacked staff
I wonder if he was refering to the biassed staff running the Workplace Ombudsmen and the other turd of a department that hangs off its arse.
They are all on AWAs and wont be getting redundancies.
Swing Lowe, i wont put my hopes up this is the ACT we’re talking about LOL!
791
Howard Hater – because Jason Wood didn’t put Howard on his campaign material and said he was against Nuclear Power lol!
Seriously there are a few Tory seats held by less than 1% after this election, should the ALP have got 55-45 then they’d be close to 100 seats than 90 seats.
Yes Jeff Kennett looked like a Poormans Peepshow Errol Fylnn. No wonder he is depressed. A intervention is in order.
Dyno- im sorry but if youre suggesting that they will debase themselves by appealing to the rank, white, racist redneck , keep foreigners out like Howard did you are off with the pixies. I ve no doubt they will do as much as it takes to stay in power over the years and I have no illusions whatoever about how conservative the ALP is but I think you are way off to suggest they will act like the Tories on issues of race.
Barry Cassidy, Tony Jones, Chris Uhllmann, Mark Colvin: all disgraced themselves this election campaign. The ABC’s blatant currying favour with the Liberals was disgraceful. And if they don’t get the children’s digital channel from Rudd, they’ll be even worse.
HH but now you know that in government what’s its like with the ABC lol god i hate them but god i shall love them if they rag on Prime Minister Kevin Rudd.
The Labor bloke in Deakin is by all reports an idiot, but he somehow won!
The swing has no regard for intelligence, except in the case of Nicole Cornes LOL
Howard Hater u did not mention the worst of all on Mornings RN. I guess that is a result of the programs dismal ratings. What is her name ??
Anyone else find the fact Morgan got the closest poll amusing?
Things that didn’t matter:
QLD council mergers (lol, they REALLY didn’t matter)
Best economic manager
Steve Price
“Hubris”
$34 billion
$700 off school fees
“Inexperience”
False dawn
Brian Burke (I mean Brian Who?)
Scores
Julia’s con man
I have in my hand the names of 13 ineligible candidates
and
.
.
70% Union front bench
That i have heard and Phil B in Deakin was a good local member, ids swap him for Jason Wood anyday, it’s a fair trade HH dont you think?
And the Liberals perhaps should have realised that people in Corrangamite might be getting sick of having a corpse for their local member LOL
AEC is still showing Cocks 408 votes ahead in LaTrobe, and Handshin 80 votes behind in Sturt. It’s a bit premature to write off their chances just yet.
Big Blind Dave – Morgan must be laughing his absolute a** off this morning.
It was more unexpected than the Bennelong result (which of course he picked! – guess all those soft ALP votes got hard!)
I liked our policies but we didn’t campaign for s%$t that’s one explanation for us losing as we did, and yes those predicting a Ruddslide were correct. It was.
Yes, add Fran Kelly to the list. WTF was she doing last night on the ABC? Interviewing tourists outside the national tally room: gee, high brow journalism there.
813
Howard Hater – I agree still Stewie power walks more than Cheeseman lol but Stewie fought off a pre-selection battle lol what fools they were down there not to send him packing lol.
811- Grog
I disagree- the 70% union front bench issue was a significant question for the Libs to put to the australian people.
“All those Australians in favour of a union dominated ALP raise you hand….motion carried”
“All those Australians in favour of wall-to-wall Labor raise your hand….motion carried”
Glen Says: “I liked our policies but we didn’t campaign for s%$t that’s one explanation for us losing as we did”
WRONG.
HH Fran had to start off the night by interviewing Coonan – after that any one would need to leave the room.
Glen, your side should go with Turnball/Bishop(Julie, not Brony)
Sid Marris gets the first jab in:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22818393-5013481,00.html
more will follow.
Howard’s sad legacy
Iraq War, Workchoices, Children Overboard, AWB… The list is endless.
How much more morally corrupt and thoroughly indecent can a man get.
History is Howard’s harshest critic as he will go down as the man who stayed too long, loved power more than anything else and destroyed not only the Liberal Party for his own glory but dragged our country down to his level.
There is nothing more natural and healthy in a democracy than to have good and regular bowel movements. Good riddance Mr Howard.
At least after this election it is obvious to ALL that Howard is a failure. Surely there will be no more of this “greatest PM of all time” fluff after Howard has led his party to profound defeat, and with NO short/medium term prospects of renewal.
Apart from all the reasons that ALP/Green supporters have for hating Howard, LNP supporters who don’t subscribe to his personality cult will condemn the odious little twit for leaving them so badly in the lurch. No planning for succession,continuity, or renewal, just a plan for his own aggrandizement, that has failed since he has lost his seat. A sad little git, enamored of his own “legend”.
His only competence was in keeping power, and he will go down as the most deliberately divisive figures in out political history. Good riddance.
Big blind dave, why amusing morgan closest in poll? what i find amusing is that people take so seriously every little fluctuation, particularly at the end. the final result was smack bang where it was headed for most of an entire year.
Yes, and we can’t write off Kim Wilkie in Swan either. I remember Beazley once only winning that seat by 200 votes. It’s a classic nail biter marginal.
Go Rodney Cocks!
BBD you’re right.
But it was nice of the Libs to think it was working. lol Loved how Downer this morning praice Brian L for running a great campaign.
Delusion is a strong emotion.
imacca Says: “Surely there will be no more of this “greatest PM of all time” fluff after Howard has led his party to profound defeat”
No objection from me on that one imacca
Hubris got Howard in the end. He should have gone 12 months ago in a dignified send off. I bet privately many Liberals are cursing him today.
Thanks for reminding me of that one Glen, that was a bit saucy of her, I reckon she could move into B&D if politics doesn’t work out, the idea of her in black leather ……………… (smacks self on wrist)
I was thinking more of Kate Ellis in black leather
HH, fine with me, i like viewing in stereo
Rex mortuus est, vivat rex, vivat regnum!
Everything must come to an end.
I thought the winner on the night would get somewhere in the order of 83 seats; I did think it was going to be the incumbent.
Howard and Costello did not appear hungry enough for another term. Howard seemed to think it was more or less a birthright; Costello, as it turns out, has been too risk-averse even to stand on his own.
Amusing thing from PM & C: Mt Bennelong will now disappear from air traffic controllers’ charts. The demise of this instituion, which has its origins in the “No Third Runway” movement and the “No-Aircraft Noise” party of the early to mid 90s has been long in coming.
Big Blind Dave Says:
November 25th, 2007 at 3:04 pm
Anyone else find the fact Morgan got the closest poll amusing?
Yep, very amusing. Its a bit like a busted clock being perfectly accurate twice a day.
so it now turns to speculation on the labor front bench. how long before rudd announces it? will all those workplace authorities be turfed? i hope there is a massive immediate cleanout of them
imacca and george: you might not like it, but Howard will be looked on with more respect as time goes on, the same as every other PM, including Keating, until they slowly shift from “respected former PM” to historical figure.
He won 4 elections, he is the 2nd longest serving PM. That’s just the facts. Along with Menzies and Hawke, he is one of the great figures of modern Australian politics.
have the alp conceded macarthur?
Howard Hater you’re right, but insiders have firmed the chances of Brendan Nelson ‘Mr Invisible’ from the 2007 campaign – no wonder he had such a small swing against him lol!
829
Howard Hater – according to some sources, Howard wanted to go 4 months ago but was coaxed into staying, guess we’ll have to wait for the autobiography.
NEWSPOLL where their rotten Poll got it wrong
Before you start having sympathy for Newspoll , read the conclusion
Seeing they are silly enough to only quote round numbers ,
i will use it AGAINST them to show their incompetence
Newspoll: liberal primary 43% VS ACTUAL 41.34 overstated by 1.66%
Newspoll: greens primary 7% VS ACTUAL 7.64% understated by 0.64%
Newspoll: others primary 6% VS ACTUAL 6.95% understated by 0.95%
Newspoll 2 PP Labor 52 VS ACTUAL 53.39 UNDERSTATED by 1.39%
The 2PP error is the difference between a cliff hanger and an emphatic victory
NEWSPOLL will claim the 1.66% error in Liberals primarys as a proportion of
their stated 43% liberal primary = ONLY a 3.86% error
but seeing the 1.66% represents a cliff hanger VS an emphatic victory , it
is more logical to say Liberals primary had been 40% for a whole year to 48 hours before an election.
The most it could move is a band from 40 to 44% being a total band movement of 4%. Newspoll were out by 1.66% on a total potential band of 4%
= Newspoll’s error of 41.5%
Poll experts will say this is an unfair method to judge & quote the MOE
What a + or – 3% margin = 6% band their poll result can be out by but still right
(therefore none of the 4 pollsters were wrong) ….after adjusting ACN’s pref’s
Feedback ?
PS/ before anyone jumps ACN , their poll correctly showed the big swings in Q’ld AND SA AND their poll correctly showed the strong swing in NSW
BUT their Vic component overstated the swing and had a problem with pref’s
Any idea how Rudd is going to deal with the senate. He has a mandate for almost anything he wants but it is going to be hard to get thing through.
Bit rich Glen with you calling for respect for Howard.
When Howard won he was an ungracious winner, putting the boot into Labor and particularly Keating. And then most of you Liberal sycophants followed his lead by heaping abuse on Keating…I don’t recall any respect there Glen.
So what makes you think Howard deserves our respect?
11 years of lies and deceit?
11 years of cutting back the safety net of the lowest paid workers?
11 years of marginalising and demonising minorities who already have the least power?
11 years of doing bugger all about education, health and climate change?
11 years of pouring taxpayers money into private schools and health funds?
The lying rodent will get no respect from me whatsoever, and I suspect most others that deliberately voted against him.
So here’s a tip buddy, save yourself the emotional damage and just let go of the idea that Howard deserves respect.
It’s like asking to show respect to someone who just trashed your house at your expense.
Were coming back,
I doubt it. They’re only trailing by 225 votes on TPP atm.
And how do those Liberal appointed ABC board members now feel?
As to La Trobe result, i really want a byline saying “COCKS TO GET WOOD”.
839
Check out
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-13745-131.htm
Farmer is 225 TPP in front.
Sideline Eye @ 843
I think every PM deserves respect this include Howard and Keating. To not respect the PM is to not respect democracy. This is probably the reason Costello never became PM.
Stephen, as long as its not too progressive socially I’d imagine he’d be fine getting the support of Steve Fielding, Mr Xenephon and the Greens.
In addition, there may be some pieces he may be able to break the Nationals away from the Libs for support if something’s thrown in for them. There may also be one or two Lib senators who will cross the floor on particular pieces of legislation.
But postals and pre-polled should assist Pat Farmer, Swing Lowe?
843
Sideline Eye – there is a difference, Howard made the Australia nation a better place by the time he left office, Keating left us a mess created by the mismanagement of the Hawke-Keating years especially economically speaking. He deserves respect as a PM Keating though i dislike him but his tenure deserves little.
Get over yourselves seriously, the left is going to find it hard to create the new Howard boogyman to bash us with now that he’s gone…
On the topic of Liberal staff losing their jobs – what sort of numbers are we talking about.
I have a vision of a scene from “Dawn of the Dead” with thousands of zombie liberal staffers wandering about seeking vengence on the living.
wpc Says:
“imacca and george: you might not like it, but Howard will be looked on with more respect as time goes on, the same as every other PM, including Keating, until they slowly shift from “respected former PM” to historical figure.
He won 4 elections, he is the 2nd longest serving PM. That’s just the facts. Along with Menzies and Hawke, he is one of the great figures of modern Australian politics.”
wpc, that’s hog wash. A respected PM is not one that has won a number of elections. That’s a political skill and nothing to do with the legacy he has left behind. His legacy? Using racism to his political advantage, dog whistling, embracing Hansonism, supporting an idiot US President and a war that has killed a million (mainly young) Iraqis, ruling by dividing and not by building consensus, dumbing down our institutions, wasting the largest prosperity this country has seen, and obsessed with changing the cultural and ideological landscape of Australia, even when it meant it would bring around his (and the Liberal’s) ultimate demise.
the libs would be mad to oppose the alp in abolishing workchoices in the senate .
Oh and other things that didn’t matter:
The narrowing!!!
Glen, I honestly don’t believe Australia is a better place after the Howard years and I think a lot of people would agree with me on that. But each to their own.
Hey guys when’s the next newspoll coming out???
LOL!
849
I would agree with that. The Nationals may be in a better bargaining position now than under the Coalition.
By needing Fielding’s vote, don’t expect a loosening of censorship rules
Just had a look at the aec site for updates.
Labor 700 votes ahead in Solomon
Labor 400 -600 votes ahead in Dickson, McEwen, La Trobe, Bowman and Swan.
But, thousands of postals yet to be counted.
PLEASE let Mia beat Pyne in Sturt. Valuable addition to Parliament and government versus smarmy waste of space with ideas above his station (Deputy Leader LOL).
Janet AL is getting those molls removed from her face. She will soon reappear as Caroline Overington.
I think the AEC needs a rocket, their feed of Qld figures last night was abysmal And why haven’t they counted prepolls yet. Seems to be in need of a major rejig to me.
859 – weak seriously weak.
I want Solomon and Dickson and Swan. You guys can have McEwen, LaTrobe and maybe Bowan.
I still can’t understand the result in Stirling. Labor had an outstanding candidate in Peter Tinley up against a nonentity in Keenan. YR@W has run a strong community campaign all year and were out in force at booths yesterday. GetUp has also run a community campaign and had people in some booths yesterday making a presence. Stirling is a seat which has regularly swung between Labor & Libs. Keenan won it from Labor in 2004 with a 2% margin on the back of the Latham factor and interest rates.
With all that, Labor hardly put a dent in the margin this time. Hasluck, the adjacent seat in similar circumstances went back to Labor. Please explain as someone once said.
Still, it will be like purgatory for Keenan without having Howard as his mentor in Canberra. No prospect of handouts for roads or dealing with graffiti.
Handing out HTVs for the Greens in a Liberal area I felt quite positive vibes that Keenan would be outed but not to be. I will check booth figures shortly to find more detail.
I think there were 2 factors in the Greens result not being as good as hoped. Firstly, voters were so keen to get rid of Howard they just went straight to Labor rather than make a protest vote via the Greens. Secondly, they might have been midful of not giving Labor/Greens control of the Senate and voted for the Libs as insurance.
Finally, let me say
TABITHA, TABITHA, TABITHA
HA,HA,HA,HA,HA,HA,HA,HA
Re 565,
Lose the election please Says:
You must be joking …….. and if you are not, here is the simple reason why he wouldn’t take it. Keating wants a Republic; first, last and always. Accepting a position of Governor General would be repudiating everything he believes in. He wouldn’t put himself in any chain of authority involving the Queen.
Albert
That’s a fairly ridiculous analogy. Whether you like it or not, Morgan regained much of its lost credibility last night. They were almost dead right.
The sky has started to fall in. It is a bad thing I guess, but very spectactular to watch
I was joking Julie.
Have the counters taken Sunday off??? Sturt hasn’t been updated all day
Hi,
With this great result could we put the hard word on the Pope while he’s here,
(enjoying our $100m largesse), to fasttrack the Beatification of Saint Maxine of Bennelong…the Patron Saint of Greatly Desired Causes?
“And the Liberals perhaps should have realised that people in Corrangamite might be getting sick of having a corpse for their local member LOL”
Last night on ABC radio someone said that retirement due to age was not allowed by the Libs this election – it would have made Howard look bad.
Bill Hayden was Governer General.
ANOTHER BLOODY QLDER !!!
Keenan forever Tinley NEVER.
Keenan won because he’s been a good local candidate, Tinley was a blow in and WA is solid Blue mostly. I suspect Keenan could increase his margin next time but obviously a very good result for him not to end up like Stuart Henry.
Glen, you love Dave Tollner that much?
Petrie was another shock: I thought Gambaro was supposedly going to romp it in, due to her high local profile.
Hello just got up. Has Howard left the building
And I see only a 1.26% swing against informal… obviously a strong Liberal vote there.
Glen @ 850,
You’d expect Farmer to hold on from where he is. But it’s still to close to call, officially.
From the seats that seem close, you’d expect Labor to hold on in Robertson (1000+ vote margin) and Solomon.
I’d also expect Labor to win McEwen, as one of the booths that haven’t reported back is Melbourne (McEwen), which is a booth that should favour Labor. However, it’s still too close to call.
Dickson, Bowman, La Trobe, Herbert, Sturt, Macarthur and Swan are also too close to call at the moment.
WA will soon have the NT treatment The army to move in and set things right. John Curtin wood be turning in his grave. SHAME WA SHAME You are just a wantabe QLDER !
875
Howard is out of sight and out of mind.
I think the Senate vote proves that a number of normally dyed-in-the-wool Liberal voters shifted in the HOR this election…but couldn’t quite bring themselves to go the whole hog, so they voted Liberal in the Senate as usual.
On the subject of the betting markets, I indulged in a number of “aspirational” bets, such as Fadden, North Sydney, Sturt and Mayo. I did, however, come up trumps in Bennelong (20.00 stake) when Maxine was @ $ 2.85, Deakin and my $100 free bet was on Labor to win the election @ $1.40. All in all, I think I came out in front
850 Glen:
“Get over yourselves seriously, the left is going to find it hard to create the new Howard boogyman to bash us with now that he’s gone…”
Don’t underestimate us!
Prediction: Fraser will be invited to the next Liberal Party campaign Launch… but Howard will not…. LOL
Dave Tollner, what’s not to love, he’s a redneck cmon and he’s worth a laugh now and again. I wonder how he did on postals in 2004???
WA is now what QLD used to be for us a Tory Rock!
Every other State has the ALP on a majority of Seats but WA, maybe its the water lol?
Please more knives in the back. Just one more
hughes is down to 2%?
Am I right the Liberals poured a lot of money into Stirling to help Keenan?
And WA is on a completely different axis to the rest of the country. If Labor wins Hasluck but loses Cowan, that’s probably the best they can hope for in the current climate.
852 George. Yes, I’ve heard the left Talking Points. They don’t seem anymore believable written down by you.
I could give debate, but it is not like you are going to be convinced, is it?
Hockey isn’t the soft face of the Liberals – he’s the soft head. Will make great viewing seeing him blustering “union bosses, union bosses, union bosses” from the opposition benches for the next three years. Intellect inversely proportional to his girth.
His lament for his poor sacked staff almost brought a tear to my eye. No matter mate. Just give em the same advice Abbott is giving his staff – you don’t need job security when the economy is so good you can easily find another job.
I wonder where Steve Price’s wife will end up?
Take these AEC results with a grain of salt. Postals always favour the Tories heavily, and will probably allow them to overcome small current Labor leads; that’s why the ABC has got the Libs ahead in several seats where Labor is currently ahead narrowly. Postals will also affect the national 2PP, so expect that to fall somewhat to around 53%. Polls should be compared with final figures, not election night figures, so, using final figures, Morgan will probably be out by 0.5%, and Newspoll and Galaxy by 1%.
Late Finish Says:
November 25th, 2007 at 3:28 pm
Albert
That’s a fairly ridiculous analogy. Whether you like it or not, Morgan regained much of its lost credibility last night. They were almost dead right.
Yep, but more luck than any ongoing accuracy in their poll. This is the same lot that gave us a 62/38 poll with a few weeks to go.
Good luck to them – Its great marketing material.
Hey now that Labor are in, when are they going to change it all lol?
HA HA Glen!
You can bet Garrett won’t be Environment Minister.
Thinking about the betting markets, it was obvious that all the sites correctly predicted a big Labor win.
What’s more interesting is the performance of the individual seat-by-seat markets. Once again, there was a demonstration of an incumbency bias in most seats.
The markets didn’t predict the following seats to fall:
Leichhardt
Forde
Dawson
Flynn
Deakin (on some sites)
Corangamite (on Centrebet)
Longman
Petrie (on some sites)
Bennelong
Cowan
Swan (if it falls)
However, they did predict the following seats to fall to Labor which haven’t (or are still too close to call):
Herbert
La Trobe
Bowman
So it seems that if the incumbent party is only a marginal favourite in a seat in the seat-by-seat betting market, they most likely will lose it at the election. This seems to reflect the results that occurred in the NSW State Election.
wpc Says:
“852 George. Yes, I’ve heard the left Talking Points. They don’t seem anymore believable written down by you.
I could give debate, but it is not like you are going to be convinced, is it?”
Your problem is wpc that you are in denial about the Howard legacy. You think he was a great Prime Minister, you think he achieved a lot. He achieved nothing.
And it’s not ME you need to convince, it’s the 54% who voted for the other guy. You might not like what I’ve written down, but that’s cause it resonates. Almost every single Liberal supporter I spoke to in the last 12 months never wanted to discuss what I’ve written above. Too uncomfortable for them – they always tried to bring the conversation around to “the economy”. Are you ashamed of those “other” Howard achievements? You shouldn’t be, that’s what you supported in Howard, now live with how history will record it.
Funny about cosi, looking at the interview last night, he looked terrible, at the time I posted on the IRC chat that “he would be gone in 6 months – the paris option”
Even if he stays around, it is a waste of a safe liberal seat – how many do they have now?
The president of the Business Council of Australia, Greig Gailey, says he is not worried about the role unions will play under the new Labor government.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/25/2100508.htm
Could’ve spoken up sooner Mr Gailey.
Lose the election please Says: “The president of the Business Council of Australia, Greig Gailey, says he is not worried about the role unions will play under the new Labor government.”
How surprising
Ltep, I have always been more concerned about the role large corporations played anyway, witness visy et al
Arise Brisbane Lord Mayor, Campbell Newman. The most senior Liberal office holder in the land!
Don’t you just love that?
The idea of Shrek as a parking inspector in Adelaide St, now there’s a vision
I’m sooooo pleased to be able to say that “I told you so”!
The Smirk, the Cheshire Grin, will now fade to obscurity (from whence he came) and leave nothing but the memory of his godawful grimace.
It was always going to be two for the price of one: kill the rodent and get the smirk free!
Ladies and gentlemen, Her Majestys’s Opposition is a vanishing act, come see it before it totally vanishes.
Talk about slaying the Jabbawocky! oh frabjous day!
(And yeah, whatever happened to the Nantucket Sleigh Ride? Did Antony just get too excited and forget?)
Kirribilly, have you got the old tart out yet
the sad part is these guys are happy to take revenge on ordinary people through workchoices but expect no retribution when they get done (and they wont get any either).
Glen,
There aren’t many but I managed to think of a few good points for the Conservatives:
1/ a chance to reorganise and rejuvenate.
2/ Labor will have a huge number of marginals to protect in places not traditionally Labor areas at the next election and will be unlikely to increase their numbers.
3/ On Primaries the Conservatives are still in the ball park.
4/ The economy over the next few years will be difficult with interest rate rises in the pipeline and a possible recession in the USA
5/ Rudd is conservative for a Labor leader so a lot of left wingers may become disillusioned causing friction in the ranks
Unfortunately for the Conservatives there are also a large number of negatives for them.
But what about the smart money on the Libs to make a comeback?????!!
Surely its not too late…. perhaps if John Howard jumps into his time machine…..
Costello Has finally made it On SKY ACTIVE he has his own channel constantly replaying his surrender. SWEET !!!!!!!!!! Save the tress of course, Goes without saying.
“And yeah, whatever happened to the Nantucket Sleigh Ride? Did Antony just get too excited and forget?”
Anthony seemed to be fighting his computer most of the night. It took about 2 hours before they corrected the seats won display in the bar at the bottom of the screen.
I don’t think he was on his A game last night. He’s still a legend though.
[Iraq at the moment is just one step short of a genocide and we have to shoulder our burden of guilt.] 632
Do not blame me, Tidyup. I voted Labor in 2004.
BREAKING NEWS Researchers in Victoria have shown you cannot grow a spine in a invertabrate SOURCE CJ DENNIS
#904.
But I think there are a few Coalition Marginals such as Hughes and Macarthur with popular local members (the only reason the seats did not fall) who may not want to fight on in a marginal and thus retire thus giving Labor a great opportunity to pick up a few seats.
The program we know as Tabitha was presumably terminated at 6pm AEDT, along with the government.
As a swinging voter I’ve sat on the sidelines on this site as my vote’s my own business. But word of warning to the ALP, I concurr fully with the earlier comments regarding the tone of K-Rud’s acceptance speech last night which was appalling, a real turn off. Second, anything the AKP does economically will be compared to the Libs. You’ve big shoes to fill there and long memories.
Finally …. Glen, admire you getting on this site today. Give’m hell.
#912 – What was the appalling tone?
LD
Sit on the fence why don’t you.
Do not forget MAXINE is a QUEENSLANDER 2. We up here are the last, best, hope. Thanks accepted very humbly
Actually, I think Newspoll did rather well.
They got the Labor primary vote spot on (final poll predicted 44, actual result = 44.06). As I said at the time Labor was going to win comfortably on a 44 primary, and they got that right.
Also, if you look at the Newspoll state by state breakdown it was predicting a 24 seat win to Labor… again, pretty good result.
They screwed up on the lib primary (43 vs 41.36) and the final TPP was a bit off, but as everyone points out — it’s the primary vote they are measuring, and the TPP is only estimated.
It’s also a bit silly to be judging them purely on their final poll. Given the MOE their final two results of 54 and 52 for Labor can’t exactly be described as rotten.
Galaxy, on the other hand, has showed up a pro-Liberal house effect throughout their polls. Their final poll underestimated the Labor primary by 1.5% and overestimated the Lib’s by 1.15%. Not a good result for them, especially since they seemed to consistently give results below Newspoll.
Appalling tone? It was a bit boring, but I didn’t think offensive.
I agree that the speech seemed to start out dull but as it continued I realised that he was speaking for history, not the half-drunk crowd. It was actually a pretty good speech (in the sense that it contained sensible ideas, not that it stirred the masses) and a very reassuring one.
Hi Guys!!! William. CONGRATULATIONS!!!!!!!
Phew! That was some wedding.
Now for the second honeymoon.
K Jin – About bloody time.
Hit the road John Don’t you or Glen come back no more, no more .
I know this sounds mad, but if I was Rudd I’d be on the phone to Turnbull to offer him Minister for Environment if he doesnt get opposition leader. He’d be better than Garrett, Tim Flannery has endorsed him and he’s the biggest threat to Labor in the future. Rann has done it before and they do it all the time in the US.
LD @ 912, so you’re a fence-sitter but you have an opinion about Rudd’s speech being “appalling” and a “real turn off”, Labor has “big shoes to fill”, and you “admire” Glen, who should give us “hell”.
See ya troll.
pity fairfax didn’t go to labor
Off topic – ABC has just announced that Matt Price has passed away. Their lead item on radio news. Feel very sad.
894 George. I can assure you I am not uncomfortable discussing the above, I just find it leads nowhere. But, as you wish:
“Using racism”: Where? Because he would like to see us all as one people? Considering that mutliculturalism (in its ethnic separitism form) is a complete disaster in Europe, I don’t consider that a bad thing. But, tell me if you are referring to something else, unless it is just the usual left “anyone who disagrees with me is a racist”
“Embracing Hansonism”: As you say, hogwash. He ignored it. Hanson is a xenophobic protectionist, who I note returned to her real constituency by preferencing Labor this time.
“US President/War”: Bush Derangement Syndrome is everywhere! We are never going to agree on this one. I fully support the war effort, and am certainly not uncomfortable about it. Are you against Afghanistan and East Timor?
“Ruled by dividing”: When your side does something, it is concensus, when the other side does something, it is divisive.
“Dumbing down institutions”: I’m not really sure what you mean, but as unis, arts, etc are controlled by leftists, I’m not sure why you are blaming him.
“Wasting prosperity”: He helped create the conditions that made this prosperity. The states are just as much to blame for any waste, maybe more.
“Obsessions”: He was too obsessed with workplace reform, and it did help lead to his demise, I’ll give you that.
I don’t really have to convince anyone, I cast a vote the same as everyone else. But I can surre you that with the exception of the last, none of those points had anything to do with the election.
“pity fairfax didn’t go to labor”
Bleedin Buderim booths
that’s terrible… best wishes to Mr Price’s family.
925 — Holy sh1t, that’s terrible!!!
That’s terrible news about Matt Price. Bloody young.
Diogenes,
It’s an entirely different system of govt in the USA. They cross the floor over there all the time. It’s not the same parliamentary system we have here. There’s no way a Federal Labor Leader is going to give Turnbull anything and there is no way that Turnbull would accept if offered.
Diogenes – I was thinking that he might do something similar given his goal of ‘governing for all’. But maybe with the likes of Petro.
On the other hand, there are so many in the ALP now who will almost command a position in the ministry, it will be hard to get interlopers in. Also can’t see Turnbull accepting a drafting.
I think Garrett is in real trouble actually. I do not know if he will keep Environment
That is very sad about Matt Price BUT DIABOLICAL 4 Brarry Cassidy to mention him at the end of insiders this morning . He should be shunned by all. CASSIDY IS WORSE THAN HOWARD
Yes, only a month or so ago I saw Matt Price and he looked perfectly healthy.
Turnbull being Minister in an ALP Government turn the other one. That is as a funny as suggestions the Unions control the ALP.
WTF?
Sorry to see Matt go. He’ll be missed here.
That’s silly and a bit disrespectful K Jin. Cassidy was a big fan of Price.
wpc, thank you for proving to everyone why you guys failed and will continue to do so. Keep saying all those things, keep telling us how good and honourable and inclusive Howard was, and how good we’ve had it as a country. In decades to come, only a few words will define Howardism: racist, divisive, backward thinking, ideologically driven.
Cassidy did not know Price was dead he was just trading of the fact he knew a potenially dead young person. Cassidy is as bad as Brian Cortice a real RAT
Very sad about Matt Price.
I missed insiders. What did Cassidy say???
In SA we have a National Party Minister for Environment and an independent ex-National Party Minister for Agriculture. Turnbull may well be the best person for the job and if we are governing in Australia’s interests we should have him. Obviously, there would be some little political hurdles to overcome!
RGee, he said the election circus was poorer without Price’s input and wished him well.
You have 2 call it as you c it. WHY DID CASSIDY mention Matt Price (RIP) this morning. He is a rat and a total user (as proved by the end of the Insiders this morning) SHUN HIM
K Jin is on drugs. Cassidy gave us an update on Matt and said he was positive and strong, and also said that Matt reckoned Rudd would live to regret his “The buck stops with me line”.
Obviously Matt must have gone downhill rapidly since Cassidy last spoke to him, cause otherwise he wouldn’t have said he was “strong and positive”.
So, in case you didn’t see Insiders, Cassidy was nothing but supportive and concerned for Matt.
K Jin — stupid statement without any basis. Suggest you retract it.
No. There would be HUGE political hurdles to overcome. It aint going to happen. Turnbull is a potential Leader of the Opps and PM. Even if Rudd offered it wouldn’t be accepted. Turnbull would be committing political suicide.
And wpc, Australian multiculturalism IS integration. Pay attention over the next few years and you will come to realise this. Half-baked analogies with Europe are irrelevant – you cannot compare apples and oranges.
(*sigh*) looks like K Jin must be the ALP version of Tabitha.
K Jin, you are acting like a jilted lover re Cassidy. I suggest you shut up.
paul k – not to mention Rudd committing political suicide
I don’t like name calling, but I’m getting pretty close with you K Jin.
What do you think happened? Cassidy heard that Matt was about to pass away and thought, ‘aha! I’ll tell the audience he is staying strong!’.
If you think before you speak, you’ll realise that obviously Cassidy was unaware that Matt had rapidly gone backwards. Otherwise he would have probably said nothing, or got more advice from the family on what they wanted him to say.
K Jin, what are you on?! What is your problem with Barry Cassidy?
I just read Matt Price died.
Vale.
Give me a break I did not use Matt Price this morning YOUR RAT DID
940 George. As I said, it leads nowhere. You will think you won election because of various left Talking Points from years ago, despite the fact that they never caused him to lose at the time.
I really care only somewhat whether Australia accepts my beliefs (and I am fully prepared to concede that Australia is slowly drifting further and further towards pragmatic socialism), they are my beliefs and I won’t bend them for popularity’s sake.
And, yes, we have had it good as a country. We always have.
Terribly, terribly sad about Matty Price.
I’ve been looking on the AEC web site, but I can’t find it. Does anyone know what was the exact swing to the ABC?
It’s just unbelievable how quickly cancer can take some people. I wish we spent far less on tax cuts, and much more on research.
If Rudd’s a Socialist then I’m a Tea Pot.
/ignore K Jin
Damn.. that only works on IRC.
It’s a shame about Matt Price. I remember first reading his sports columns in the Advertiser with a kid -never afraid to back Freo.
Ijon: http://vtr.aec.gov.au/
Ijon Titchy
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-13745-105.htm
Ashley 960
Exactly.
News of Matt’s passing
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/25/2100609.htm
wpc, with statements like these from you, I don’t really need to respond:
“Australia is slowly drifting further and further towards pragmatic socialism”
” Considering that mutliculturalism (in its ethnic separitism form) is a complete disaster in Europe, I don’t consider that a bad thing.”“anyone who disagrees with me is a racist”
““Embracing Hansonism”: … He[Howard] ignored it”
“I fully support the war effort, and am certainly not uncomfortable about it”
“but as unis, arts, etc are controlled by leftists, I’m not sure why you are blaming him.”
“He helped create the conditions that made this prosperity. The states are just as much to blame for any waste, maybe more.”
Turnbull’s announced he’s running for the leadership.
961. paul K What Rudd really is remains to be seen. But I said Australia, not Rudd.
960 Ashley- I imagine Matt had brain metastases. They can progress very quickly and raise the pressure on the brain which is difficult to treat. The end is often very sudden and mercifully is not painful. He will be greatly missed.
K Jin -
are you Sir Cedric reborn as a Labor voter?
Using Matt Price’s tragic death to point score against Barry Cassidy is utterly disgraceful.
K Jin, I’m tempted to ban you purely on grounds of stupidity.
Warning WARNING WARNING WILL ROBINSON!!!!!
Big alert to anyone out there who hasn’t yet realised it:
Malcolm Turnbull is a knob, self-centred and egomaniacal, and lose with other people’s money.
He just plonked $10m of ‘our’ dosh into a company part owned by his own benefactor, Matt Hanbury, for research into what is the scientific equivalent of the Magic Puddin’ and you are talking about him being a leader of the Liberal Party?
My god, if only!
If you think Howard took 11 years to ruin the party, Malcolm could have done it a lot quicker.
They will rue the day they elect Turnbull as leader, and that is for certain.
Hi,
This may seem like an odd question. I voted for the first time yesterday and was surprised and shocked to discover that you dont need ID to vote. What stops me from saying i am my house mate (i know his full name and address) and voting, and then going to another polling booth and voting as someone else? And then to another polling booth saying i am someone else.
Matt Price has passed away
how awful thats terrible! 
Guys,
Ijon was joshing.
You poor fools. Can’t you see that Krudd is in a dilemma, caught between an imperative to emulate John Howard (the best PM we’ve ever had) and an imperative to emulate that sentient liver spot Gough Whitlam (the worst PM we’ve ever had) and of course they are irreconcilable positions. The ensuing paralysis will be a pleasure to behold. A lot of people – a LOT – are going to be very disappointed.
Guess that rules out my master-plan of having Turnbull Minister for Environment! Still, he’ll be very unhappy if he loses!
Oh well Steven Kaye. Howard’s time is up. He’s gone. Dumped from government in a huge swing and rejected by his own constituents.
He’s made history alright.
Gezze ignore me.
I was posting 6.30 last night that the swing in QLD was 10% I said at 6.40 Dawson was very hopeful. What was anyone else here posting. That turned out to be true. STOP buying into the media industrial complex.
The media will never stop trying to tell you what to think. And on the evidence here You guys are taken in by even the ABC at 9.00 on a Sunday morning. Indeed you are not Howard Battlers but Howards boobs even if u vote Labour
Just read that Price died. His poor family. I rarely agreed with him, but there are a multitude of journalists in this country far more deserving of a painful demise.
Matt Price will be greatly missed.
When I go to his second last thread, I now understand more than I knew.
A sad day.
Steven Kaye is back! And here I thought it couldn’t get any better today! And he’s been on the pipe again – oh joy!
wpc,
I’m an ex-Liberal supporter and this is the first election where I’ve ever supported the Labor side so I can’t accept we’ve moving toward socialism. Both the major political parties moved sharply to the right in recent years and all that is happening now is that people are moving back to the centre where the parties should have been all along. If you look at Liberal Party policy back in the 90’s before Howard took over you’ll see they were no where near as far right as they are now and in many ways not much different to where the Labor Party is now.
Quite shocked about Matt Price. K Jin got it wrong about Barry Cassidy. Although I was under the impression he was on the improve.
968 George. You accused conservatives of being too uncomfortable to talk about these issues. So I did. You don’t like what I believe. No surprise. It isn’t that conservatives are uncomfortable talking to the left about these things. It is just that they know there is no point.
Steven Kaye’s “there are a multitude of journalists in this country far more deserving of a painful demise” scores pretty high on the stupid-meter as well. What the hell is wrong with you people?
Jason, actually you’d be better off going around the booths and voting as yourself each time. That way no-one is going to come in to vote and find their name alreasy crossed off. The chances of all the roll lists being compared are pretty low*.
(* that used to be the case, anyway. Maybe now they are scanned-in and computer matched?. I doubt it, though.)
Another poster who is the embodiment of tact. Steven, surely no one deserves it. Not even journalists you don’t like.
Hi,
This may seem like an odd question. I voted for the first time yesterday and was surprised and shocked to discover that you dont need ID to vote. What stops me from saying i am my house mate (i know his full name and address) and voting, and then going to another polling booth and voting as someone else? And then to another polling booth saying i am someone else.
William B @ 973 – I heartily second your motion.
Glen – I admire your pluck enormously. Maybe you should run for the leadership? At least you’ve got some guts! A few more libs with guts and a brain and we might have a better democracy than we’ve had in recent years.
I actually worry about Rudd et al confronted by a relatively bad opposition – there are plenty of inexperienced and fairly loose labor members who could cause much grief and plenty of trouble for the leadership – they need to bed things down and start well with their agenda. Maybe he can make them all work their butts off on committees and inquiries and so on to keep them out of mischief.
Hear,Hear William –
is this the real result of 11 years of heartless Government?
- a heartless people.
Ltep, good one.
Well, that will be my memory from this election, Kerry’s wonderful gaffe.
Did I say relatively bad opposition? Sorry, must be still a little light headed. I meant ‘really bad opposition’
Although i am not happy with only a slight increase in my vote in Kingston it was sill good to be close to bokenshire considering his high profile. What i see as the reason for my vote not increasing much was the YR@W group dropping me in the last 2 weeks to support a right wing ALP candidate. I have resigned my union delegate position and will also be reviewing my membership of the AMWU
Environment Minister?? Watch Debus
Kerry Obrien ‘A Swing to the ABC’ LOL
Debus could be AG?
William I had a go at people using someone death. I never said “there are a multitude of journalists in this country far more deserving of a painful demise”
Is it wrong to point out when people stand up on the bodies of others. AS TONY ABBOTT WOULD SAY AM I NOT PURE OF HEART.
In case anyone else wants to say something stupid, here’s a hint: Glen’s response at 976 is entirely appropriate. You can always cut and paste instead of saying something offensive.
wpc: “It isn’t that conservatives are uncomfortable talking to the left about these things. It is just that they know there is no point.”
Then don’t make blanket statements about us not understanding or accepting the Howard Legacy. If you want to sprout rubbish about your hero then you have to accept that people like me will reject it as strongly as possible.
Jason @ 991 – it is a great Australian tradition to turn up at the polling place, tell them who you are, and get the ballot papers. It’s the origin of the old traditional Carringbush saying – ‘vote early and vote often’ … I actually quite like it. It smacks of arcane egalitarianism.
Very sorry about Matt Price, over so quickly
Haha. When was this?
1003 CL
can you get caught though?
I never said you said that, K Jin. I said Steven Kaye said that. Other than that, your point is too stupid to merit a response.
I’m pitching a new ABC doco: “The Costello Hours”
Re Kerry O – that’s funny. I also thought Tony Jones was hilarious last night – seemed to be off the leash and just savaging everyone.
#980 –
“Oh well Steven Kaye. Howard’s time is up. He’s gone. Dumped from government in a huge swing and rejected by his own constituents.”
After having completely transformed Australia over the last 11 years. For the better, of course. And after having ensured that all successful political leaders in this country have to copy him.
And you realise, don’t you, that this election result was simple about Workchoices? The most foolish thing the ALP can do is believe that the electorate has embraced it and Krudd, because it hasn’t. Labor’s low primary vote is evidence of that. Voters have simply installed Labor to dump Workchoices (and even then they’ll still end up retaining huge chunks of it).
I imagine that among the staff for whom Hockey is concerned would be Barbara Bennett?
985 paul k. That may be true, I suppose it depends on what you define as socialism. The dependence on government to fix everything is getting worse, and we have more and more regulations on our private lives. It is an offence to: kill canetoads without freezing them, leave your car unlocked, cut a tree down without red tape, etc.
K Jin
“as Tony Abbott would say…”
says it all really.
Ashley it was during the coverage i pre-recorded the ABC’s coverage and Kerry said at some point late in the evening, that there’s been ‘a significant swing to the ABC’ it was hilarious lol!
For God’s sake, K Jin, most viewers of Insiders would have been fans of Matt Price and wondering how he was. Barry was just letting everyone know of Matt’s insight into the campaign, which most people watching would have appreciated. How you can turn that into Barry Cassidy somehow ‘using’ Matt Price is beyond me!!
Sorry, Steven Kaye, have you had a look at the scoreboard?