A more lucid analysis will have to wait for tomorrow. For the moment I can only offer some swing breakdowns: 5.6 per cent in Sydney, 5.5 per cent in the rest of New South Wales; 5.4 per cent in Melbourne, 4.7 per cent in the rest of Victoria; 7.8 per cent in Brisbane, 8.5 per cent in the rest of Queensland; 1.4 per cent in Perth, 4.1 per cent in the rest of WA; 5.8 per cent in Adelaide, 9.2 per cent in the rest of SA (Mayo, Barker and Grey); 2.5 per cent in Tasmania; 1.7 per cent in ACT; 2.8 per cent in NT.
I think I can also manage an overview for the Senate, which has produced a surprisingly strong result for the Coalition and a number of disappointments for the Greens. Kerry Nettle is gone in NSW, with three seats each for Labor and the Coalition. It’s looking like the same result in Victoria, although Greens candidate Richard di Natale might yet take the final seat from the third Liberal candidate Scott Ryan. The Greens also seem to be falling short in Queensland, their candidate 2.4 per cent behind Labor’s third for the final seat. Better news for the Greens from Western Australia, which turned in its expected result of three Liberal, two Labor, one Greens, and South Australia, where their candidate looks likely to just keep ahead of Labor at the second last exclusion and win the final seat on their preferences. Tasmania is a clear three for Labor, two for Coalition and one for Greens, and Australian Capital Territory and Northern Territory split one Labor and one (Country) Liberal as normal.
Assuming the Greens don’t get up in Victoria, and unless my late night/early morning arithmetic leads me astray, that points to 18 seats out of 40 for both Labor and the Coalition, three for the Greens and one for Nick Xenophon. Combined with ongoing Senators, that means 37 for the Coalition (one short of a blocking majority) and 32 for Labor, with the balance consisting of five for the Greens, one Family First and one Nick Xenophon. The Greens will thus not hold the balance of power in their own right, with the Coalition being able to stitch together a blocking majority with Fielding or Xenophon or an absolute majority with them both. Interesting times ahead.
1,248 Comments
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I’m sooooo pleased to be able to say that “I told you so”!
The Smirk, the Cheshire Grin, will now fade to obscurity (from whence he came) and leave nothing but the memory of his godawful grimace.
It was always going to be two for the price of one: kill the rodent and get the smirk free!
Ladies and gentlemen, Her Majestys’s Opposition is a vanishing act, come see it before it totally vanishes.
Talk about slaying the Jabbawocky! oh frabjous day!
(And yeah, whatever happened to the Nantucket Sleigh Ride? Did Antony just get too excited and forget?)
Kirribilly, have you got the old tart out yet
the sad part is these guys are happy to take revenge on ordinary people through workchoices but expect no retribution when they get done (and they wont get any either).
Glen,
There aren’t many but I managed to think of a few good points for the Conservatives:
1/ a chance to reorganise and rejuvenate.
2/ Labor will have a huge number of marginals to protect in places not traditionally Labor areas at the next election and will be unlikely to increase their numbers.
3/ On Primaries the Conservatives are still in the ball park.
4/ The economy over the next few years will be difficult with interest rate rises in the pipeline and a possible recession in the USA
5/ Rudd is conservative for a Labor leader so a lot of left wingers may become disillusioned causing friction in the ranks
Unfortunately for the Conservatives there are also a large number of negatives for them.
But what about the smart money on the Libs to make a comeback?????!!
Surely its not too late…. perhaps if John Howard jumps into his time machine…..
Costello Has finally made it On SKY ACTIVE he has his own channel constantly replaying his surrender. SWEET !!!!!!!!!! Save the tress of course, Goes without saying.
“And yeah, whatever happened to the Nantucket Sleigh Ride? Did Antony just get too excited and forget?”
Anthony seemed to be fighting his computer most of the night. It took about 2 hours before they corrected the seats won display in the bar at the bottom of the screen.
I don’t think he was on his A game last night. He’s still a legend though.
[Iraq at the moment is just one step short of a genocide and we have to shoulder our burden of guilt.] 632
Do not blame me, Tidyup. I voted Labor in 2004.
BREAKING NEWS Researchers in Victoria have shown you cannot grow a spine in a invertabrate SOURCE CJ DENNIS
#904.
But I think there are a few Coalition Marginals such as Hughes and Macarthur with popular local members (the only reason the seats did not fall) who may not want to fight on in a marginal and thus retire thus giving Labor a great opportunity to pick up a few seats.
The program we know as Tabitha was presumably terminated at 6pm AEDT, along with the government.
As a swinging voter I’ve sat on the sidelines on this site as my vote’s my own business. But word of warning to the ALP, I concurr fully with the earlier comments regarding the tone of K-Rud’s acceptance speech last night which was appalling, a real turn off. Second, anything the AKP does economically will be compared to the Libs. You’ve big shoes to fill there and long memories.
Finally …. Glen, admire you getting on this site today. Give’m hell.
#912 – What was the appalling tone?
LD
Sit on the fence why don’t you.
Do not forget MAXINE is a QUEENSLANDER 2. We up here are the last, best, hope. Thanks accepted very humbly
Actually, I think Newspoll did rather well.
They got the Labor primary vote spot on (final poll predicted 44, actual result = 44.06). As I said at the time Labor was going to win comfortably on a 44 primary, and they got that right.
Also, if you look at the Newspoll state by state breakdown it was predicting a 24 seat win to Labor… again, pretty good result.
They screwed up on the lib primary (43 vs 41.36) and the final TPP was a bit off, but as everyone points out — it’s the primary vote they are measuring, and the TPP is only estimated.
It’s also a bit silly to be judging them purely on their final poll. Given the MOE their final two results of 54 and 52 for Labor can’t exactly be described as rotten.
Galaxy, on the other hand, has showed up a pro-Liberal house effect throughout their polls. Their final poll underestimated the Labor primary by 1.5% and overestimated the Lib’s by 1.15%. Not a good result for them, especially since they seemed to consistently give results below Newspoll.
Appalling tone? It was a bit boring, but I didn’t think offensive.
I agree that the speech seemed to start out dull but as it continued I realised that he was speaking for history, not the half-drunk crowd. It was actually a pretty good speech (in the sense that it contained sensible ideas, not that it stirred the masses) and a very reassuring one.
Hi Guys!!! William. CONGRATULATIONS!!!!!!!
Phew! That was some wedding.
Now for the second honeymoon.
K Jin – About bloody time.
Hit the road John Don’t you or Glen come back no more, no more .
I know this sounds mad, but if I was Rudd I’d be on the phone to Turnbull to offer him Minister for Environment if he doesnt get opposition leader. He’d be better than Garrett, Tim Flannery has endorsed him and he’s the biggest threat to Labor in the future. Rann has done it before and they do it all the time in the US.
LD @ 912, so you’re a fence-sitter but you have an opinion about Rudd’s speech being “appalling” and a “real turn off”, Labor has “big shoes to fill”, and you “admire” Glen, who should give us “hell”.
See ya troll.
pity fairfax didn’t go to labor
Off topic – ABC has just announced that Matt Price has passed away. Their lead item on radio news. Feel very sad.
894 George. I can assure you I am not uncomfortable discussing the above, I just find it leads nowhere. But, as you wish:
“Using racism”: Where? Because he would like to see us all as one people? Considering that mutliculturalism (in its ethnic separitism form) is a complete disaster in Europe, I don’t consider that a bad thing. But, tell me if you are referring to something else, unless it is just the usual left “anyone who disagrees with me is a racist”
“Embracing Hansonism”: As you say, hogwash. He ignored it. Hanson is a xenophobic protectionist, who I note returned to her real constituency by preferencing Labor this time.
“US President/War”: Bush Derangement Syndrome is everywhere! We are never going to agree on this one. I fully support the war effort, and am certainly not uncomfortable about it. Are you against Afghanistan and East Timor?
“Ruled by dividing”: When your side does something, it is concensus, when the other side does something, it is divisive.
“Dumbing down institutions”: I’m not really sure what you mean, but as unis, arts, etc are controlled by leftists, I’m not sure why you are blaming him.
“Wasting prosperity”: He helped create the conditions that made this prosperity. The states are just as much to blame for any waste, maybe more.
“Obsessions”: He was too obsessed with workplace reform, and it did help lead to his demise, I’ll give you that.
I don’t really have to convince anyone, I cast a vote the same as everyone else. But I can surre you that with the exception of the last, none of those points had anything to do with the election.
“pity fairfax didn’t go to labor”
Bleedin Buderim booths
that’s terrible… best wishes to Mr Price’s family.
925 — Holy sh1t, that’s terrible!!!
That’s terrible news about Matt Price. Bloody young.
Diogenes,
It’s an entirely different system of govt in the USA. They cross the floor over there all the time. It’s not the same parliamentary system we have here. There’s no way a Federal Labor Leader is going to give Turnbull anything and there is no way that Turnbull would accept if offered.
Diogenes – I was thinking that he might do something similar given his goal of ‘governing for all’. But maybe with the likes of Petro.
On the other hand, there are so many in the ALP now who will almost command a position in the ministry, it will be hard to get interlopers in. Also can’t see Turnbull accepting a drafting.
I think Garrett is in real trouble actually. I do not know if he will keep Environment
That is very sad about Matt Price BUT DIABOLICAL 4 Brarry Cassidy to mention him at the end of insiders this morning . He should be shunned by all. CASSIDY IS WORSE THAN HOWARD
Yes, only a month or so ago I saw Matt Price and he looked perfectly healthy.
Turnbull being Minister in an ALP Government turn the other one. That is as a funny as suggestions the Unions control the ALP.
WTF?
Sorry to see Matt go. He’ll be missed here.
That’s silly and a bit disrespectful K Jin. Cassidy was a big fan of Price.
wpc, thank you for proving to everyone why you guys failed and will continue to do so. Keep saying all those things, keep telling us how good and honourable and inclusive Howard was, and how good we’ve had it as a country. In decades to come, only a few words will define Howardism: racist, divisive, backward thinking, ideologically driven.
Cassidy did not know Price was dead he was just trading of the fact he knew a potenially dead young person. Cassidy is as bad as Brian Cortice a real RAT
Very sad about Matt Price.
I missed insiders. What did Cassidy say???
In SA we have a National Party Minister for Environment and an independent ex-National Party Minister for Agriculture. Turnbull may well be the best person for the job and if we are governing in Australia’s interests we should have him. Obviously, there would be some little political hurdles to overcome!
RGee, he said the election circus was poorer without Price’s input and wished him well.
You have 2 call it as you c it. WHY DID CASSIDY mention Matt Price (RIP) this morning. He is a rat and a total user (as proved by the end of the Insiders this morning) SHUN HIM
K Jin is on drugs. Cassidy gave us an update on Matt and said he was positive and strong, and also said that Matt reckoned Rudd would live to regret his “The buck stops with me line”.
Obviously Matt must have gone downhill rapidly since Cassidy last spoke to him, cause otherwise he wouldn’t have said he was “strong and positive”.
So, in case you didn’t see Insiders, Cassidy was nothing but supportive and concerned for Matt.
K Jin — stupid statement without any basis. Suggest you retract it.
No. There would be HUGE political hurdles to overcome. It aint going to happen. Turnbull is a potential Leader of the Opps and PM. Even if Rudd offered it wouldn’t be accepted. Turnbull would be committing political suicide.
And wpc, Australian multiculturalism IS integration. Pay attention over the next few years and you will come to realise this. Half-baked analogies with Europe are irrelevant – you cannot compare apples and oranges.
(*sigh*) looks like K Jin must be the ALP version of Tabitha.
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