A more lucid analysis will have to wait for tomorrow. For the moment I can only offer some swing breakdowns: 5.6 per cent in Sydney, 5.5 per cent in the rest of New South Wales; 5.4 per cent in Melbourne, 4.7 per cent in the rest of Victoria; 7.8 per cent in Brisbane, 8.5 per cent in the rest of Queensland; 1.4 per cent in Perth, 4.1 per cent in the rest of WA; 5.8 per cent in Adelaide, 9.2 per cent in the rest of SA (Mayo, Barker and Grey); 2.5 per cent in Tasmania; 1.7 per cent in ACT; 2.8 per cent in NT.
I think I can also manage an overview for the Senate, which has produced a surprisingly strong result for the Coalition and a number of disappointments for the Greens. Kerry Nettle is gone in NSW, with three seats each for Labor and the Coalition. It’s looking like the same result in Victoria, although Greens candidate Richard di Natale might yet take the final seat from the third Liberal candidate Scott Ryan. The Greens also seem to be falling short in Queensland, their candidate 2.4 per cent behind Labor’s third for the final seat. Better news for the Greens from Western Australia, which turned in its expected result of three Liberal, two Labor, one Greens, and South Australia, where their candidate looks likely to just keep ahead of Labor at the second last exclusion and win the final seat on their preferences. Tasmania is a clear three for Labor, two for Coalition and one for Greens, and Australian Capital Territory and Northern Territory split one Labor and one (Country) Liberal as normal.
Assuming the Greens don’t get up in Victoria, and unless my late night/early morning arithmetic leads me astray, that points to 18 seats out of 40 for both Labor and the Coalition, three for the Greens and one for Nick Xenophon. Combined with ongoing Senators, that means 37 for the Coalition (one short of a blocking majority) and 32 for Labor, with the balance consisting of five for the Greens, one Family First and one Nick Xenophon. The Greens will thus not hold the balance of power in their own right, with the Coalition being able to stitch together a blocking majority with Fielding or Xenophon or an absolute majority with them both. Interesting times ahead.
1,248 Comments
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Steven Kaye,
nice point.
Just remember, when you walk down the street, the majority of the people are dumb enough to not think what you think.
Good luck with that, it’s not easy.
Has anyone seen the Great Possum’s GIANT KILLER Howardista 5000
ROFL
http://possumcomitatus.files.wordpress.com/2007/11/the-howardista5000.jpg
Triffid. what sort of indescretions?
Steven K, I strongly suggest you seek counselling. John Howard, and his nasty, small minded, divisive claque have been utterly rejected. That includes you. Please take you bilious spew, and rank flatus elsewhere.
cheers,
Alan H
middle man… if you trawl through Andrew Landeryou’s blog you will probably find something of interest.
I think it’s above us all here to rehash gossip and innuendo.
Yay, won some good money there. I had $1200 about a month ago, but chickened out when the polls started picking up a smaller swing in NSW. Will still pick up about $450 on her though. Thanks Max!!! An official labor legend.
La Trobe falls:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22818152-29277,00.html
The real challenge now is for the Liberals to reinvent as a true Liberal, or even as a true Conservative party. They have allowed the infiltration of ratbag neo-cons, religious wingnuts and other assorted fascist baggage. They have now paid the price. We do indeed live in interesting times.
We probably need a bennelong thread…
One item of note, Yusuf Tahir – the unknown out-of-towner who did little more than put his name on the ballot paper – has so far polled 60% more votes than the Citizens Electoral Council (79 to 49) in bennelong. You have to wonder why CEC bother wasting their time and money. They’d be better off electorally not being a party.
Triffid and Basil – pls spell out what Pyne is up to?
Sarah,
Some sexual indiscretions that have never been proven and so shouldn’t be repeated on this site…
What a mean-minded vindictive poor loser Steven K is.
But then, he’s a Lib.
What would you expect?
79 votes in Sturt now!!!
Libs will never win with Cossie and they know it. It’s only a atter of time before they reinvent themselves behind Turnbull. And what do we call them not that tey’re not Team Rodent? Team Smirk doesnt work, coz there aint much smirking now.
Bolt is amazingly rational on Insiders.
Swing – comprehendo. Mucho gracias.
Mmmmmm…….waking up….too much sparkling shiraz…..memories of lots of people….orange balloons….hugging. What was it? Oh riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight. WE WON!!! No we didn’t win, WE THRASHED THEM!
And this morning, as bright sunshine washes over my beautiful city, my beautiful country, I feel I can stall tall again. Our chance now to move forward with compassion and regard for all our fellow citizens – and those who wish to be.
Now, about that poll.
The Tories are in complete denial. Dolly looked like he wish he had accepted that Jim Jones Kool-aid drink offered to him last night after all. They just don’t get it, and until they do get it the ‘coalition of swill’ will languish in the wilderness – which, I must admit, is not such a bad thought.
Eleven months ago, I put $3,000 on Rudd to win when the ALP was at $2.55. I was encouraged to do this by Steven Kaye and Nostradamus. I would just like to take this opportunity to thank them both for their encouragement and their personal venom.
“The Australian people will never vote John Howard out of office. never.”
How sweet it is, Steven.
And, to cap off a beautiful result, the future of the Liberal Party belongs to Uglies like Alex Hawke and Steven himself.
I think the expression “hoo hah” pretty well sums it up.
Pyne losing would be the second layer of icing on an already well iced cake.
It’s funny isn’t it. Howard talked about how good the liberal party has been to him, but what did he do to it?
His greed and lust for power has left it decimated, a total trainwreck.
Who do they have to lead them… Costello? He is already essentially a already a PM election loser.
Turnballs might be their best hope, but geez, if that’s the best they got they are in trouble.
All in all though, they will be in the wilderness for the next 3 years, and I suspect many more.
A fitting outcome for a mean spirited, ruthless party. I noticed on insiders they mentioned the mean spirit of the Liberals (ie heckling female reporters at the press club), and it’s so good that that kind of nastiness got the boot.
On the flip side, hope Kev now gets on with the job of fixing this country. I must say its like their is a new vibe to the place, and I like it a lot!
Nice little bundle there, Snakeboy. Enjoy it.
Geepee #212,
I’ve run online into a number of LP’ers who have been courteous in defeat. The best, in my opinion, of conservatism – true courtesy to all, combined with a genuine (if somewhat paternalistic) caring for the electorate.
I hope that the LP can change to represent more people like these, and less like Alex Hawke, Stephen Kaye and other rabid neo-conservatives.
Hey Billy
Hope things a well for ya.
There’s something going on she said I can feel it in the air.
As per the election- meh.
Your friend, Tom – Melbourne
Tabitha needs to show up for one last couplet.
#177 –
“And where did these polls say there was going to be a 50% primary for labor?”
Just taking Newspoll as an example, they had 21 polls this year that had Labor’s primary vote at 47% or above, and 6 of them had them at 50% or above. There were plenty of Nielsens and Morgan that recorded similar results.
I repeat, there’s something drastically wrong with the methodology of these polls when they result in such an inflated Labor vote.
#194 –
“For a lesson in how to lose graciously, see Stephen @ 188.”
Lose graciously, when the result is such a contemptible act of national cretinism? Not on your life!
222, yes I was so impressed by Mal Brough last night, gracious and good humoured in very distressing circumstances for him, top marks.
What I want to see now is inquiries into things like:
Iraq
David Hicks
AWB
Haneef
Deportation of Aussies
Tampa affair
Regional infrastructure corruption
etc etc
The LNP may have lost, but they have many questions to answer, and now that they have been dislodged from power perhaps the truth can come out.
Congradulation to the Australian Labor Party
A great victory for all of its supporters
Our best years are ahead of us
The Australian people are ALWAYS RIGHT
Kirrabilli Removals -
Didn’t expect to see you here this morning. Don’t you have a job scheduled for this morning? Or did Hyacinth ring to delay you to this arvo?
Basil Fawlty wanted a nomination for the Comical Ali of the campaign. Stephen Kaye appears to have put in a nomination for himself with the spin above about Labor’s primary being “only” 43.5. Stephen, if you’re reading, there were 2 left parties in this election and the other one got 7.8%.
My nomination for Comical Ali, however, is not Stephen or a poli. It’s Piers, Rupert’s pet toad. I missed him on Insiders this morning, desperately trying to pretend that Rudd hadn’t won.
Thanks Mathew @ 222
Yes, many, like EsJ. But the bile on the ABC site o’nite from Tories was extraordinary. Venom and vindictiveness come so much easier to the Tories, exp when they lose.
Latrobe to Labor
That’s “esp” when they lose
Keep that shit up, Steven Kaye, and you will be enjoying the fruits of opposition for a very long time.
Your dishonesty and bile is just sad.
Bye.
Just on Sky News
I’m thrilled about La Trobe swinging. Some of my comrades put in hard work there and I had a great time yesterday handing out HTVs in Berwick.
Marko, I reckon she has probably chained herself to the fence, cut her arm off Kirribilli.
If Liberals have this sort of arrogant attitude to the result then they won’t govern for another 20 years.
la trobe to labour………yippeee……getting sun burnt handing out htv was well worth it
Steven Kaye –
I repeat, there’s something drastically wrong with the methodology of these
(elections)
when they result in such an inflated Labor vote.
red wombat – which booth were you at?
Seems there is counting today, the AEC website just updated.
rgee what booth were you at
Its getting tighter in Sturt – Mia is only 79 votes behind on 2PP.
Come on, Mia, do it.
Berwick Lodge … the primary school
berwick lodge, mansfield street
hahahahahaha
HAHAHAHAH!!! I was the heavily tattooed guy in the YR@W tshirt. I was there from 9-12.
Sarah @ 210.
It should be said that the Pyne indescretions are only rumours (spread by the Liberal Party themselves)
So, given the jostling for positions withing the Party after defeat, if ever evidence were to come out, one would suspect it would be now.
me mark
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