That lucid analysis I promised two posts ago will still have to wait another day. In the meantime, I have added a new “photo finish” thread below for Dickson, where Labor’s lead is an uncomfortable 389 votes, to those already existing for Swan, Solomon, McEwen, Macarthur, La Trobe, Herbert, Bowman and the Victorian Senate. It would also be remiss of me not to note the very sad passing of Matt Price, taken far too young at 46.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
1,367 Comments
Here’s the eternal diplomat, Jeff Kennett, offering a few kind words of consolation to old pal Peter Costello:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/costello-shows-his-lack-of-mettle/2007/11/25/1195975866027.html
Hilarious.
Whilst it’s entirely off-topic, may I add that Kennett’s mo on election night looked appallingly Hitler-esque. He should be taken to a barber’s union somewhere, to have it shaved off.
Vale Matt Price, sadly missed.
Idle curiosity question
Norfolk Island residents
I can’t find a booth on norfolk in the results. Are they all postal votes or something?
Alan Ramsey provides an interesting analysis of the future for the liberal party here
But why didn’t he write like that a few years ago?
Divisive leader who squandered Australia’s hopes – Paul Keating article in SMH
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/divisive-leader-who-squandered-australias-hopes/2007/11/25/1195975870462.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
You know all things said I felt sorry for Howard on Saturday night. Why didn’t the silly old bugger go out gracefully. I felt empathy rather than jubilation at getting the icing on the cake. What an insult to lose your own seat!
I am glad Turnbull has put his hand up. You need a credible opposition and new leadership with fresh ideas.
An Honest Mistake – yeah, right.
The SMH letters page includes this pearler of a paragraph.
Mantras about “children overboard”, “never, ever GST” and other concoctions became such a feature of reporting that even the most knowledgeable voter would have concluded these were Machiavellian actions by Howard aimed at manipulating a naive electorate. The anti-Howard lobby would never allow the PM the benefit of an honest misunderstanding about children overboard, and that an election over GST was about the most honourable thing he could have done to ensure he had a mandate to introduce it.
An honest misinderstanding? Spin the onther one.
Link here
Matt Price was an inspiring journalist in a field of uninspiring hacks. He was equally good in print, television and radio. His lack of involvement in this election was a huge void. I will miss him and his obituary on the Australian site this morning, where his blog used to be headlined, made me very sad this morning.
centaur, for the way that Howard played with and divided Australia, I can’t say I’m not glad to see him gone with the extra humiliation and repudiation of losing his seat. He can take Tampa, Siev-X and his beloved dog-whistle with him.
Rates Analyst – that letter is hilarious. It seems that the Liberals have a few Kroger types in the field still prepared to call black ‘white’ in a desire to continue their culture wars (with all that they have come to entail). Unfortunately they no longer have the high-ground, will be inreasingly isolated, and publicly embarrassed by the flawed logic they hold so dear.
RA
That is a fantastic letter.
I suppose the invasion of Iraq was just an honest misunderstanding too? You know, troops were bored sitting at home and we sent them out for a walk and waddyaknow, they wandered into a battle….
A lecture from Jeff Kennett on “character.” How truly sick-making. I’m glad to see the back of Howard and Costello, but there has been no more truly detestable person, both politically and personally, in Australian politics in my lifetime, not even Joh Bjelke-Petersen, not even John Kerr, than Jeff Kennett. When oh when will he just shut up and go away?
Having lied about his intentions regarding a GST, taking the policy to the electorate in 98 was about as reasonable as he could have been.
But to me “Machiavellian actions by Howard aimed at manipulating a naive electorate” seems an almost perfect description.
I note that not even the letter-writer can defend AWB.
Happy Revolutionary @ 1:
Jeff Kennett’s mo is for Movember, raising money for mens’ health.
http://www.movember.com/au/whatismov/07/What-is-Movember/?=adwords
re Matt Price – his passing is desperately sad. An entertaining, informed and informative writer – a solo act in Australian journalism.
Kennett was on Newsradio this morning making an a$$ of himself.
He spent the entire time pretty much refusing to answer any questions.
Indeed, Adam, that was my reaction.
Jeff Kennett lecturing about the necessity of “compassionate leadership.”
Utterly nauseating.
Here’s an image to cut and keep, as brought to us by the Daily Telegraph:
http://www.news.com.au/common/imagedata/0,,5768685,00.jpg
I must be honest I thought JWH handled it well, a couple of vague things about better and stronger, but I was impressed. Rudd too. But those idiots who ran around starting the greatest pm / treasurer team in the universe stuff …. it is nasty but someone on our side needs to be minister for making sure these lies don’t stick. Perhaps Stephen Smith could have a portfolio including the portfolio for making sure lies like that get torpedoed.
Perhaps they should fun a dedicated ‘The Wasted Years’ channel for the ABC to run 24 hours a day.
THR @ 1
“even though the Government had overseen the 11 best economic years since white settlement”
Is Kennett implying that the indigenous custodians of our land where/are better economic managers?
A few have already joined the dots between the Lindsay pamphlet and the narrow defeat of Howard in Bennelong. If the ALP get wins in McEwen and Latrobe I think you could conclude Jackie Kelly got them over the line there.
Any other seats?
The Lindsay pamphlet was not an isolated incident. It was the last in a long line of attempts to stir up fear of the ALP by aligning them with people’s prejudices.
The only difference between something like the capricious treatment of Haneef and the Lindsay pamphlet was the level of incompetence shown.
Its not a question of whether it was “officially” sanctioned by the Liberal Party. It was the Liberal party.
I’m pleased to see the moderates in the Party are finally starting to act.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/factions-turn-inwards-as-middle-ground-lost/2007/11/25/1195975870423.html
I would love to see Mal Brough given a job as he is now unemployed and unelectable in Queensland. Given his background can I suggest that he be now given the plum job of Ambassador to Iraq.
Goodbye to Matt Price – what a bloody awful loss. Matt was smart, funny, insightful, professional and humane. He always played witrh a straight bat and I always admired him for that. Warmest wishes to Sue and the kids. It’s always hard to find a good man in politics and journalism – it just got a whole lot harder. I’ll miss you Matt.
On another matter, ABC radio in Melbourne is suggesting Clare Martin will resign as NT Chief Minister today, possibly to play a role in the new federal government.
BV @ 16
There is not going to be any mercy for Howard. It has to be the most malevolent photo I have ever seen of a public figure.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/opinion/animations/0,25199,19,00.html
nicholson made laugh all through the campaign..
Steve (20)
I think the “the plum job of Ambassador to Iraq” should be offered to John Howard. After all he was partly responsible for ‘liberating’ them and bringing them ‘democracy’. I am sure the relatives of 600,000 dead and 2 million refugees will welcome him with open arms.
Now Pete the Dud has committed political ??, does this open the way for Bro. Tim to throw his hat in the ring?
And if he does which party does he join?
Heard Andrew Robb on RN Breakfast this morning. He talked about numerous issues that brought the Coalition down – Howard’s staying too long, the “it’s time” factor – but he avoided mentioning even once the main and biggest issue the party had – WorkChoices.
If the Liberals are not eyes wide open to that piece of electoral poison, long may they wallow in the pooh of Opposition.
The new leader and shadow frontbench (whoever they turn out to be) need to completely and very publicly disassociate themselves from the hard right position on IR if they are to become viable again as an electable federal entity.
Now Pete the Dud has committed political oibara, does this open the way for Bro. Tim to throw his hat in the ring?
And if he does which party does he join?
Polls (mostly) got it right.
The following compares the final polls with the TPP as of Sumday (53.3%). “N” is the number sampled. “Lower” is the lower limit of the 95% confidence band for that pollster, “Upper” is the upper 95%CL. Error is the amount by which the poll differed from the actual result
TPP N 95%CL Lower Upper Error
Morgan f2f 56.5 900 3.1 53.4 59.6 -3.2
Morgan phone 53.5 2115 2.1 51.4 55.6 -0.2
Galaxy 52 1200 2.8 49.2 54.8 1.3
Newspoll 52 2614 1.9 50.1 53.9 1.3
AGBN 57 1400 2.6 54.4 59.6 -3.7
Average 53.6 8229 1.2 52.4 54.8 -0.3
Morgan phone was closest, the all-poll average next. The Morgan f2f was just outside the 95% CL (but 10 days old), the AGBN was well outside it.
The weighted mean TPP projection from all specific electorate polling was 53.7%, very clearly a good estimate and something to remember for next time.The MimeMSN Passion Poll mid-way through the campaign predicted 53.6%- but this might have been more arse than class.
All except AGBN picked up the swing in the middle of the week. The trend line built from all polls during the campaign showed a likely TPP of 55.1%, the true TPP was outside the likely error range for a linear projection, a clear indication of a last minute acceleration of mood.
If a last-minute swing really did occur, the Pre-poll and Postal votes, which would have been cast before any swing set in, may show it and pull the final TPP up a little.
Adam @ 11
I was no Kennett fan but I must say this for him. When Pauline Hanson was first elected and making headlines, JWH looked like a bunny caught in the headlights. He didn’t know how to respond to her. This was when I started to become seriously dejected about him being our PM, after the guns buy-back and Timor triumphs. Kennett had no hesitation in denouncing her, in his usual blunt way, as stupid and dangerous. Unlike Howard he didn’t worry about what racist/redneck conservative voter he might alienate. For this I’ve always felt a degree of gratitude towards him – oh, and the Beyond Blue involvement is also something he deserves recognition for.
It is obvious that the Iraq Ambassador job should go to the former Foreign Minsiter, Downer. Wouldn’t the Yanks get a kick outta seeing him do that fishnet stockings number in the troops canteen.
Kennett’s comments must be seen through the prism of Victorian Liberal factional politics. The two factions are the “Kennett” faction and the “Costello” faction and they hate each other, as do the two men who give the factions their names.
This hatred is all the more intense because their differences are based on personality not ideology.
I’d be very interested to know whether Morgan used different sampling techniques or weighting for their final polls.
Rx @ 27,
Let’s hope they’re not listening, so they can wallow a good deal longer.
Geoff @ 29,
what’s AGBN?
The Iraq Ambassador job should go to Kevin Andrews.
Jude #30
Fair points about Kennett. I had forgotten his prompt and clear repudiation of Hansonism. And his BeyondBlue work is commendable.
He deserves credit for those things.
You’ve left AC Nielsen out of your table.
I would also like to know how far out they were on primaries too. I think Galaxy had them level on primaries when they 2.5 apart.
Geoff @ 29, what’s AGBN?
My long-term abbreviation for what has been Nielsen in recent times, but was AGB McNair some years ago.
Maybe he was feeling sad for the people in detintion centres, the drowned SIEV X people, for letting Hicks rot for 5 years, for the torture of Habib, the gaoling and political persecution of Haneef, for AWB….nahhh…as usual he would be feeling sorry for himself.
The deeds of the Howard government do need to be exposed, not as revenge but as a warning and lesson to the public and the press.
Note, there are lots of wheelie bins in the ministerial wing of parliament house today. Seriously…
Geoff Lambert @29
Geoff, I’m not trying to dispute your conclusions, but I simply find it hard to understand how the final Newspoll 52% is “mostly” right. I have a math background, but not stats.
Newspoll chief was on Skyness this morning smugly bragging about their primary vote prediction, and then saying his combined last two 2PP’s nailed it. Sorry, but that’s not just not the reality of how significantly lower 52% was to the final outcome. We’ll never know how much those final Galaxy and Newpoll 52% impacted on the voters after the media played them up hugely all Friday and Saturday.
Newspoll chief’s other big boast was about picking up 8% swing in QLD, and he said the Rudd swing is not a landslide.
LETP, Ramsay in the Saturday SMH had this hilarious and enormously telling detail of hundreds of wheelie bins in the PH carpark BEFORE the election. Perhaps the presence and number of bins could be a predictive indicator for future elections. Binwatch?
Also, forgot to ask Geoff Lambert. Why are you avoid using the term “narrowing” rather than “last minute acceleration of mood”? Or have I just completely missed your meaning there?
Rates Analyst @4
That has been Ramsey’s take on Howard for years, and one of the the very few journalists to express his contempt for the rodent publicly and vociferously. You can’t mark down Ramsey on that score!
I think this is the best, most succinct summary:
As for this last election, the one that kills Howard off politically, along with the nastiest, meanest, most miserable, self-absorbed Commonwealth government to blight Australia in living memory, Rudd out-campaigned him, with discipline and immense energy, like Howard has never previously been thrashed in his 33 years in political life
Wooohoooo! In a nutshell!
Now we are at the stage when the AEC data files is missing information.
The AEC has recorded the polling postal vote statistics (The file has not been updated since Nov 20.)
Postal votes and prepoll votes where stopped being issued before the election. (Surely they have this data by now)
Missing from the AEC polling place returns and data files is the number of prepoll votes issued. The total number of absentee and provisional votes issued.
There is no reason why a summary of this information can not be provided. (Certainly before the final counts begin later today. All this information is available and is included in the polling place/divisional office returns.
http://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/federal_elections/2007/data_extracts/
Sum of AEC and Parties AEC Other Liberal Labor Country Libs National Greens Democrat Total Postal Votes to Date (Incl. GPV)
ACT 8250 4083 3 3019 1135 - 10 - - 10825
NSW 165334 50096 1450 46859 54573 19 12337 - - 226859
NT 2293 1297 5 21 353 613 4 - - 4078
QLD 128120 42949 720 33688 34815 11 15937 - - 164988
SA 43689 17268 28 16070 10308 5 10 - - 54389
TAS 15092 7976 14 4006 3080 1 15 - - 17396
VIC 187635 56116 919 78053 48536 7 4004 - - 227358
WA 38941 20031 1267 13492 4050 6 95 - - 55199
National Total 589354 199816 4406 195208 156850 662 32412 - - 761092
No, the Ambassodor to Iraq can wait until Ruddock retires! Send him, nothing to lose as he is already dead!
To put up Turnbull now would be only to burn him off too soon.
They need to burn some losers first so they will recognise the need for a Turnbull and so will support him. Turnbull really needs to learn some political skills and speaking skills. He just waffles too much rubbish.
The polls in the next few months will probably indicate the LNP at its lowest and maybe reveal what their real base support is. Will be interesting to see the level of rusted on regardless supporters the Liberal party has.
Geoff L said:
“The weighted mean TPP projection from all specific electorate polling was 53.7%, very clearly a good estimate and something to remember for next time.”
Good summary. I still think we’ll stress over individual polls
The Greens in Victoria are looking more and more of losing again.
With Labor securing three quotas in their own right their only hope is a unlikely swing in postal and absentee votes. The postal votes stats indicate that 33% of postal vote application are unknown.. Of that the greens can expect at best 15%. Problem is that the Liberal Party (The party they have to beat) have the lions share of the postals.. Labors surplus is insufficient to deliver the greens the number of votes they require.
As predicted the Liberals do now find themselves in the equivalent of the “post-Thatcher” leadership vacuum. Like most people, I can’t have any sympathy for Howard, who was as ruthless a user of power as any on the national stage in my life time.
I can only see some hope for the Liberals if they cut deep now and try to reposition themselves. Otherwise its Kevin 2020.
I can see some issues that will challenge Rudd and Labor, although I am impressed by the energy he has already shown.
Climate change will be one of the biggest for him now. Signign Kyoto is one thing. Managing the economy in a world trying to reduce teh burnign of ocal will be another, and that will hurt in Queensland. For the record, I am a sceptic on clean coal. Nobody has got it to work yet. On the plus side, WA’s gas reserves will rise in value with emission trading.
Kina, I’d like to see Turnbull leading. He is someone who presumably would push Labor, or at least offer bipartisan support, on climate and environment, as well as multiculturalism and other social issues. And the republic question.
Hemingway: Its called consolidation, Voters realize that the minor parties will not deliver the required outcome.
Melbcity,
Do you think that there was increased level of “consolidation” from last two elections or not?
Hi all. I’m a longtime, avid lurker here; but as I can now safely avoid this site for a while and get my life and productivity back, I want to share a moment from election night before I go.
I was at the party for Labor volunteers in the seat of Melbourne, having decided to attend only after receiving Antony Green’s assurances on TV that we were likely to win. The wife and I had sprung up, called a taxi, commandeered the Indian driver’s car radio to keep up with results, and arrived at the Collingwood Town Hall just as the ABC’s seat counter ticked over to ALP: 76.
Among the crowd of party workers there were a group of Sudanese guys, part of the large African community in the electorate. I don’t know if they had been involved in the campaign, or invited to the party as guests. In any case, when local member Lindsay Tanner made his victory speech in due course, he included the following (as well as I can remember his words): “No matter whether you’re Sudanese-Australian, Ethiopian-Australian, Greek-Australian or whatever; in any government I’m a part of, you will always be welcome”.
Huge cheer from the assembled crowd, much rejoicing from the Sudanese guys, and a warm feeling of inclusion with many a tear to the eye. It was a great moment.
I also spoke next day to my Sudanese friends (who had fled Sudan as political refugees) who had recently gained citizenship and had voted for the first time – not just in an Australian election, but ever. They were excited that their first election as voters was such a significant one, as my first in 1983 had been. It’s humbling to realise how much you can take your vote for granted, living in Australia.
It was a great weekend.
I would like to extend my congratulations to Mr. Rudd and the Labor party for winning this years general election.
To all the Labor supporters on this Blog congratulaions.
May Kevin be a great Prime Minister.
Oh and may the Liberal party come back renewed and refreshed ready to take on the challenges of the future.
Good on you John. Cheers. Your contributions have been interesting to read.
I can’t believe that freak Abbott is going to run…Mayby they will let him have it for abit just to punish him for his role in their demise
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22820416-5001021,00.html
Hear Hear.
A Gentlemen of Melbourne too, it seems.
Well spoken John. Thanks. I think you are heading for ‘interesting’ times on your side. It won’t be dull.
kudos John
just heard on ABC ( i think correctly) that Abbott is in the race?
Sky confirms Abbot’s in the race
It’s hard to be humble when your side loses big time. Well done John.
I hope the people in the Liberal party get rid of the right wing nutters that control it. Especially the NSW Branch. Otherwise they will be in opposition for a long time.
Kevin Rudd will be a good PM. He will surprise many people. I hope our great country can now move forward and we can leave a lot of the fear,divisiveness, and class wars behind.
Thanks Pancho.
I think Costello did the right thing declaring that he won’t contest the Leadership. I would still like to see him as PM as I think he would be a great PM. I’m dark on JWH and the Liberal party for not going for generational change, they only have themselves to blame. In my opinion the Liberal party owes costello not Costello the Libeeral party!
Chris Pyne on Adelaide local radio bleating about the media not being their friend over the six weeks of the campaign.
Alternatively.
Many tributes being made in respect of Matt Price, a wonderful and ever promising journalist.
Vale, Matt.
I hope Abbott wins. It would be an entertaining interval in the Liberal leadership until the Real Leader (Turnbull?) comes along.
The new Govt will absolutely be jumping for joy if Abbott wins. !
John of Melbourne,
A most gracious comment. As one of the Labor supporters here, it is greatly appreciated. I sincerely hope that the Liberal Party returns to values that Fraser and many others espoused in many important policy areas.
We need a strong opposition to reduce the new government’s chances of letting too many easy election victories turn them in the direction of the woeful Carr/Iemma regimes.
All the best, mate.
Thanks all
Even though I am a Liberal supporter and I think JWH did good things for Australia. I think that no one associated with JWH’s government should be in a Leadership role at the moment.
We need new faces and time for people to disassociate Liberal members form the past regime.
At least you know where you stand with Abbott…
RE: Abbott getting up. Gillard, Plibersick (?sp), Wong and evry other female Labor MP will be hoping and praying. He can’t handle women. They know, he knows it and what’s more female voters know it.
Abbott will be Gillard’s plaything.
Sounds like Pyne is desperately trying to take over Downer’s role as chief Liberal party whinger. Lord knows, he qualified enough…
Petro Georgiou for Liberal leader!
John @ 74: That would be a great start if they did. !
A couple of unlikely winners from the election were:
1. The much maligned Gary Morgan, whose last phone poll was spot on.
2. Malcolm Mackerras, whose long range forecast was somewhat disparaged but proved largely correct in terms of the Labor majority and the defeat of John Howard.
A large slice of humble pie for me, who, as a life member of the pessimists club, consistently but erroneously foretold a win of two seats either way.
Go Abbott!!
56 JoM. Thanks to you for that. Mr Squiggle, and Stephen, also showed similar integrity and generosity of spirit. Full credit to you (and any other coalition suporters here who also did likewise).
I too wish for the (new) opposition to regroup, reform (very important), and become a strong force again. Democracy only works with a healthy contest and genuine choice. Might take them a while, though.
••••••••••••
And, for what little difference it makes, this is my last post. The rest of my life is suffering from serious neglect, and I also need a long break from this stuff, about 2.5 years, I reckon.
Thanks to William, and the participants in this community. This was my first online election, it has been a great experience and I have learned an awful lot. Hope you all have too.
Ciao.
RE Leadership. Wouldn’t it be fun if Downer got up
I think it’s highly disturbing for the Lib side if him, Abbott and Robb are being considered.
paladin @ 72
{RE: Abbott getting up. Gillard, Plibersick (?sp), Wong and evry other female Labor MP will be hoping and praying. He can’t handle women. They know, he knows it and what’s more female voters know it.}
Too right. You can add Roxon to that list.
Just me @ 78. Me Too. Is there a strategy for being weened of this intellectual crystal meth? Is there any subsidies avauilable via Medicare
55 Melbourne Resident
Well said. What it’s all about really.
Agree re productivity loss. Back to 12 hr days for a while.
Now now now, yes yes yes, now now …
Abbott would be a joke
Yer sure thing ’stuart’ @ 71, you forgot to put in ‘love him or loath him’ as well. We all no where Pauline Hanson stands too. BTW Hanson appears to to have fallen over the 4% line which qualifies her for public funding, about $160K, not bad for a couple of months work.
First thing for the Liberals is to wina state election.
Does anyone know which is the next state to have elections?
22 Confirmed that Clare Martin and Deputy have resigned
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/clare-martin-and-deputy-quit/2007/11/26/1195975915525.html
The truth
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22820883-5007146,00.html
John of Melbourne, congratulations on being so well mannered and good-spirited, even in defeat.
Let’s hope that public life and discourse can proceed on this basis.
Bye, Just Me. I think we all know exactly what you mean!
Robb! Terrific choice!
Yep, let’s have the very guy who 24 hours after the exposure of Lindsay pamphlet Liberal thugs, claimed on Lateline that the Party had strongly dealt with them, BUT he could not name them because he never asked who they were.
Tony Jones was gobsmacked, and Albanese just rode it for all it was worth.
Not to mention, that the last word that springs to mind when thinking of Robb and Downer is “fresh”. They would smell like rotting fish to the electorate.
Petro Georgiou -I’ll second that!!
And maybe someone could persuade Bruce Baird to change his mind……with either of these two at the helm I may vote for the Liberals again.
56 John of Melbourne – Thanks John – as opposed to some conservative supporters on this blog you have made a positive contribution and your good wishes are much appreciated.
JoM @ 87, fascinating ain’t it? It’s also ultimately revenge against Howard, as Costello’s decision potentially leaves the party in greater ruin than if there’d been an orderly succession. The worse condition the Liberal party is in, the longer their recovery period, the more tattered will Howard’s legacy seem. Howard may love the Liberal party for the rest of his days but it’s unlikely to be reciprocated.
I can see valid reasons for Costello’s decision, but I think it’s hard to avoid concluding that he expected to be handed the leadership of the government on a platter. Leadership of the opposition wasn’t good enough.
I propose Ruddock as Leader and Andrews as his deputy.
JoM @ 65
I know there is a general inclination of many to call Costello gutless but I think it takes a lot for someone to look an unpleasant message in the face and accept that they are a part of the problem, not the solution.
He (unlike abbott) can see that the Liberal party needs a clean separation between the howard years and what is to come. So kudos for putting ones ego to one side and doing the right thing by his team.
Maybe he would have been a good prime minister, I don’t know. I just feel that yesterday was the first time we have seen humility from Costello, an attribute that a prime minister needs in spades, and an attribute that howard lost.
Either way the liberal party needs more moderates and Costello may have been a smarmy git, but he wasn’t a complete bastard. Let’s hope his “mentoring” has a positive effect on the attitudes of the parliamentary Liberal party.
Bruce Baird stripped off his charm mask during the last week of the campaign and was very rude to Penny Wong in a Skynews joint interview with Helen Dally.
Baird hogged the time with waffle and scaremongering, then kept trying to interrupt Wong.
Fortunately, Wong just ignored him and kept going with positive points, so Baird became agitated to the point of bright redness in his neck and face.
It truly looked like Baird was going to have a stroke.
The AEC may have chosen wrong TPP in Melbourne. The Greens look like they will top the liberals but its only academic as the ALP has over 50% of the primary… But a marginal 2PP percentage either way
So by my count the Liberal Party has 14 members (and 11 Senators) with previous experience of opposition but with that number including Ruddock, Downer and Costello there may yet be a further drop.
If Ruddock resigns (and Howard stays down
, Tuckey will become Father of the House, no?
Slackboy,
At least Costello was for a Republic, which probably added motivation to Howard’s determination to shaft him.
The feeling at my union today is incredible. Everyone is buoyed and hopeful.
Happiest.Monday.Evar!
Hemingway Says: Quotable Quotes thread at 835.
November 26th, 2007 at 8:22 am
“Fat chance. Fraser’s landslide was all about the economy, stupid. Just as Hawke’s landslide and then Howard’s would be.
Kerr and Fraser split this country into such entrenched divisions that Fraser was unwilling to be as economically conservative as Howard (first elected in Bennelong during the Sneddon election) and other right-wingers wanted to go.
Howard’s humiliation is the final chapter in the saga of The Dismissal”.
Hemingway, yours is a most astute observation. I felt there was something else, though couldn’t finger it. But you are dead right. May I suggest you send it to the Age, apropos Paul Keating’s article in today’s Age, ‘The Liberals must purge the reactionaries’ November 26, 2007
Second yours and others to John of Melbourne, this thread.
John.
I’ll go Petro!
It’ll never happen though – But from all the election results on Saturday night, there can be no greater rejection of the Howard agenda than the fact that Georgio recorded absolutely 0% swing against him.
JoM – fair play to you and congrats on the quality of your posting here in the face of concerted majority opposition.
Some of you will remember I was running a “seats that will change” prediction contest a few weeks back, where specific seats needed to be nominated. The winner is yet to be determined, depending on the undecided results. However it would appear that BenC or SwingLowe will be the likely winners. Special mention to Ruawake who was the only one to mention Dawson as a Labor gain !!
Crikey Whitey @ 101
Thanks, mate. I might do that.
I think the liberal party loss is solely due to Howard hanging on for so long. He should have handed over te reigns of power long ago. He has only himself to blame.
Re Costello why would you take on the leadership of a losing party and do a Snedden. Chances are you will lose the next election. By the time Costello has a real chance to win he will be seen as the duck that could not fly. Problem is that on hearing Downer this morning on ABC radio he is pitching the line that he is the elder statesman and has experience as opposition leader, If the Liberal appoint Alex as their no one then the Liberals will undergo a serious demoralisation. Its already happening as the factions in the Liberal Party are bitching as we speak/write/
Whats clear is that Labor is pitching for the middle ground and it is unlikely they will falter come the next election (We should have four-year terms).
I would not expect much significant change in the way Australia operates BUT it will be a bit of fresh air and a sense of revival.
I suspect a Nelson and Bishop (Julie) will become the leader for the libs with Turnbull taking over Nelson in a few years. Just pure speculation but that seems to be the best possible course of action for them. If Abbott or any of the others take over, I believe that the Libs would self destruct even more and force themselves into exile for an even longer period.
Well I said last week that it was all over bar the bitter recriminations, and we are clearly into that phase.
Given JOM’s gracious statement, to be constructive in return, I agree you must elect someone as leader who was not closely connected to Howard. Otherwise they are just a liability. So Abbott, Andrews and Ruddock are non starters IMO.
Greens polled highest in the State in Mayo, caller says.
Still speculating on radio about possibility Downer hinted at earlier, that he may go.
Clare Martin has resigned.
Would Downer ever put the (tacit) proposition “appoint me leader or I’ll resign from the parliament”? That’s the sounds he seems to be putting forward.
While Petro is the last bastion of lower-l liberals, he is no leader. He nearly sent the Kooyong branch broke without fundraising. He just might take on some front bench of the opposition. Given that the battle looks to be Turnbull and Abbott, I don’t think there is room for a third.
is it possible pete the meek is being strategic in not running for lib leader at this stage? given aussie elector’s propensity to give new governments a second term perhaps he could have a tilt at the leadership when the then lib leader resigns after rudd’s first re-election. “he’s coming back!”. get him some braces.
well amused by the enthusiam for abbott as leader in this blog. i think his tenure would be filarious. mind you he’s got about as much chance of that as he has of getting to heaven.
Who thinks Abbott will turn up on time to the leadership ballot?
st admit I’m a little dissapointed that Peter Costello wont be taking up the Liberal leadership. I was entertaining the delightful irony of a Abbott and Costello.
Wouldn’t Turnbull and Abbott simply be almost a vote on how the Libs see their future?
I’d be massively concerned (if i was a lib voter) if Abbott was elected – unless the purpose was to have him as a ‘caretaker’ leader to give the Libs some guff after a tough loss, and then to shaft him 18 months from the election.
Although, i can’t see abbott taking the job as a ‘caretaker’…..
Shoul read: I must admit…
Matthew Sykes @ 104,
Yay! This gets better and better… Do I win a prize
John of Melbourne, as others have already said, thanks for your comments in regards to the Labor’s victory. As with others, I do wish the Liberals well in rebuilding as only with a strong opposition can governments be held accountable.
Can’t imagine Downer would have, or even believe himself to have, the internal fortitude to pull the Libs together. He needs to pull himself together first. He seems to have been on the brink of hysteria most of the year. 11 years as Foreign Minister would be a particularly hard act to follow. I reckon he’ll be leaving soon.
I’ve heard Abbot has majority support in the party. Please let it be true.
Calm down Sing Lowe, you haven’t won yet
You’ve done well in your predictions, the only one you’ve got wrong so far is your prediction of a Labor win in Stirling.
As for a prize … I can blow you a kiss if you like !! Or if you’re ever in Adelaide, I’ll shout you a beer.
Yo ho ho @ 116 – That is what is needed. A vote for Turnbull is a vote for lower-l liberals. Abbott would be slaughtered by the front bench full of female ministers, and would probably turn women away from the Liberals.
Abbott is also too close to the policies of the past, including WorkChoices. If he gets up he will try to block the ALP’s new IR policy, which seems that the ALP is going to get businesses and the unions to have a say in. Blocking the IR policy only make people cement their ideas about IR. It’s time for the Liberals to be progressive.
Still, I think Turnbull is not experienced enough, and Abbott is too close to the past. What the party does is up to them, but navel gazing shouldn’t be one of them.
LTEP,
Yesterday the story was that Nelson had the majority support of the party. What I’m guessing is that the leaks saying this sort of stuff are from members of the anti-Turnbull camp in the Liberal party, who seem to be doing anything to stop Turnbull from becoming Opposition Leader.
P.S. Let me take the time to thank JoM for his gracious comments and his valuable commentary on this site. Without people like him, this blog would be a much less interesting (and intellectually stimulating) site than it is. Thank you.
Costello isn’t going to hang around on the backbench for nothing. Clearly he doesn’t want the heavy load of opposition leader in Labors first term. The second term would be a different matter, particularly if the economy is slowing down. He could set himself up as Australia’s economic saviour.
I know, I know, it’s not a time to start worrying about winning the next election/elections. But just indulge me for a moment.
Ross Gittins is now saying there’s quite a likely chance of a recession hitting Australia, through no fault of Labor. What will the fallout be if this happens?
The obvious thing you fear is that tough economic times will hit, and Rudd will get blamed for it. And the Libs will spin this into a story about their superior economic management.
well said J of M! That’s the spirit.
I tend to agree with you, moreover, that anyone senior minister associated with Howard era should probably move on now. Id say Downer will resign from the shadow frontbench tomorrow. He and Tip have no doubt done the right thing.
Hopefully, it should serve as an example to Abbott. Its over. Abbott is the main rep of a political tendency within the Libs that has been thoroughly rejected by the public. He should probably leave parliament altogether. His mere presence will retard the sort of changes they’ll need to make themselves electable again.
Nelson is just new enough to hang on, and obviously Turnbull Bishop etc. Nelson is probably a good choice for a stop-gap – they guy who wont ever be elected, but can start the renewal process.
LTEP – Stop teasing us. What’s your new name going to be?
(PS – Good to see you flying the ALP flag so strongly over the past few days, putting the lie to those absurd suggestions from some that you were a tory troll in disguise. I never believed that for a moment).
slackboy at 95.
Honestly!
The best Costello mentor for the Liberal party would be Tim.
Problem with Turnbull is that his constituency (high-income yuppies stuck with the Liberals) stuck with the Liberals. He won’t be distinctive enough from Labor to give voters a reason to switch, whereas Abbott is too distinctive.
I can more easily (and very happily
) see Abbott getting the numbers than Turnbull. Mind you, at this stage I’m thinking Nelson could end up being the consensus candidate that both sides of the party will settle for. I’d be just as happy with that, to be honest.
Bring on the DD election, and 100 Labor seats.
106 – Melbcity – yes, the Libs lost a chance at renewal and it can be a powerful factor in re-electing governments with waning popularity and policy agendas (e.g. NSW Labor). But the moment has passed. The Libs will need more that leadership renewal, they will now need significant policy renewal, and they are in the unenviable situation of being forced to side with FF in the senate if they want to vote down Labor legislation. This will make it difficult to take the fight to Labor on the middle ground and give Labor huge wedge opportunities.
peter hendy on abc news looks like he is happy (NOT)
oops the abc just lost the feed just as he started gasbagging lol
I’m betting Alexander Downer steps down tomorrow.
It’s a shame some vile Liberal Party members are scurrying away before I get to watch them sulk from the opposition seats in parliment.
Sean, You speak wisely.
Costello would relish being “forced” to cancel his retirement plans and humbly assume the Leadership.
Sounds like the way Lazarus with a triple bypass was humbly “forced” to return as Opp. Leader when Downer came a cropper. They’re never gone until they’re gone.
Darn… I don’t know to be honest!
How about… Let Them Eat Pork?
Betamax @ 126, I think Rudd better start crafting the lines now, just as Howard honed them over the years, you know the sort of thing “Labor’s $X debt”, “17% interest rates under Labor” etc. Rudd’s lines would emphasise Howard’s failure to invest in infrastructure that could have led to productivity growth, squandering the dividend of the mining boom, ignoring education, huge foreign debt etc.
A compunding problem as the Liberals squabble over the spoils of defeat will be that they will very likely not have sufficient funds to mount a campaign state or Federal for many years. If I was a Businessman I certainly would be reticent to pour good money into any Liberal campaign in the next five years.
Hemingway-
missed that Baird performance. Thanks for bringing me back to reality.I am really fossicking for some granules of gold in the ashes.
Ruddock and Andrews? Surely tongue -in-cheek?
Will consolidate Labor even furth….ahhhhh……(the sound of a penny dropping) !
hendy is back -asked question re unions -worried labor will be beholden to them lol
they still dont get it
the people have spoken
Jude @137, the problem with the tactic is that it has a shelf life. It is backward looking and is part of the reason for the defeat. The lines become a mantra and then a prism through which all policy is seen. It is a very difficult habit to break. I hope we have seen the end of governments that bring up 20, 30, 40 year old government decisions in an attempt to be re-elected.
Abbott looks to me like the Liberal-version of Keating. Good performer in Parliament who always puts up a fight, but also manages to piss off a lot of people. That probably works better in Government than in Opposition, but who knows…?
Spot on, Steve. Turnbull can’t fund everything! (In Wentworth we were getting glossy pamphlets in the mail just about every day in the last weeks.) Much as I’d like to see Turnbull as a future leader, I can’t see him having much appeal to the “Howard battler” constituency. Even though he’s a self-made man he’d be seen as too much of a silvertail. Point Piper’s a long way from Struggle St.
Pyne still saying he is running for Deputy Leader even though he hasn’t won a seat yet. The story of postal votes is another factor working against the Libs at the next election as it worked for them at the weekend.
http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/pyne-still-considering-leadership-role/20071126-1ct1.html
Steve,
Pyne looks safe in Sturt. And he’s probably not going to get the deputy leadership (Bishop and Robb look to be favourites).
Re Costello staying. Someone wrote yesterday that Costello maxes his super if he stays till 18th march 2008.
I would suggest that will be an important date regardigng possible resignation. The other imprtant thing will be to get his mate Michael Kroger the pre-selection in Higgins.
Given Kennett’s contribution this morning, it could be a bloody fight.
I guess Howard didn’t have a mandate after all when he lied about the GST.
http://news.theage.com.au/labor-has-no-mandate-for-ir-changes/20071126-1csr.html
Re 134,
The Duke Says:
That wouldn’t surprise me one bit for a variety of reasons.
1. rumours flying over the last 3 to 6 months about his interest in state politics
2. his interview on Insiders Sunday morning (pre Costello announcement btw) – he looked like death warmed over he was so upset (maybe he had been crying all night or had little or no sleep). I can’t imagine he will be happy at all on the back bench.
3. Another PB’r posted information after he got home from working a booth in Mayo on Saturday. Don’t remember who it was but he would recognize himself if he reads this comment. He said that they were told when they took the bunting down to “be careful” with it as it might be needed for a by-election.
As much as I hate to acknowledge it, if Costello had even half the single minded determination Howard had throughout the eighties and nineties to become Prime Minister he would not be cutting and running now. When Howard famously declared that Kim Beazley didn’t have the ticker for the job, it would have been much more accurate if he’d said it of his own treasurer.
Having said that, I can in a way understand why Costello is giving them the finger.
It was obvious that Howard had lied in denying the commitment he had given to him to hand over the Prime Ministership after a couple of terms, in return for a clear run at the leadership – a win, win for both of them – and the party knew that. Now they expect him to pick up the pieces. But the fact remains, if Costello wanted the top job badly enough – as Howard did – he would stay.
Here it is – Howards gone.
McKew claims PM’s seat
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007/mckew-claims-pms-seat/2007/11/26/1196036777768.html
Sky just announced that Downer will address his future tomorrow. This came on the heels of a story about the Lib leadership options. David Spears says it wouldn’t surprise him one bit if Downer steps down.
Observer @ 150,
I don’t see how the situation has changed since yesterday. Nothing has been counted since 4:30pm, so why didn’t she claim victory last night?
Dolly will retire tomorrow. AWB hangs over him like a giant storm cloud.
If the moderates win and elect Turnbull now, the uglies will go feral on them. They are always in the mood for a fight and are in a position of strength at the moment internally in the Party.
If Nelson(the man with the immoveable face) gets elected we will all die of boredom. And superhornetgate hangs over his head as a problem for him.
If Abbott gets elected you can bank on a DD election and a Lib slaughter.
Good work Johnny. In the name of your own self interest you have destroyed the immediate (and maybe longterm) future of the Liberal Party.
Also wouldn’t be surprised to see the Nats go it alone pretty soon. Led by Bananaby
El Nino @ 141, but it worked for Howard the first couple of times. As with all his tactics, he tried it on once too often and this election no one was listening any more, and it just cemented the idea of an old guy with no new ideas.
Labor has to come up with some way of disassociating itself in the popular mind with economic downturn, as the electorate is not sophisticated enough to understand there is not always a causal connection. Howard benefited from good timing with the boom, and was absolutely shameless in claiming all the credit. Whatever else his legacy, in the popular mind, if a recession hits, the Howard era will be thought of as “the good old days”.
Swing Lowe@142
The Mad Monk’s days in public office are over, even at school he was renown for turning debating into a blood sport. Parliament doesn’t need that. Change the Government – Change the Country. He should get out.
LTEP – “Let Them Eat Pork” sounds pretty good to me, given the amount of pork barrelling our desperate former Prime Minister indulged in to try and bribe his way back into power. Yes, I think I like that.
Of course you could also consider – “Thanks For Losing The Election”.
Hmm… If Abbott doesn’t get the Leadership, will he resign? Or will he go for Shadow Treasurer?
I’m sure he doesn’t want to get stuck in Health again…
Isn’t it possible, and I’d argue likely, that Costello was ‘nudged’ out of contention? The Libs will want to move away from the Right wing nut jobs that have plunged them so deeply into electoral oblivion. Costello is a voice of the past and I suspect the moderates with the Liberal party know this.
LTEP,
My suggestion for your new name is “Thank God It’s Over”. Coz that’s how I’ve been feeling for the last couple of days…
Max the Axe claims Bennelong
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007/mckew-claims-pms-seat/2007/11/26/1196036777768.html
Abbott would be a highly amusing choice as leader of the liberal party, if only for the fact he is barking mad. After his election campaign though, he has no chance. Turnbull seems the best choice, but I suspect the boring graduate from my alma mater, Brendan Nelson, will win the role.
Spare a thought for the Exclusive Bretheren. They must be feeling that the world truly is coming to end. I hope it would for them. Nasty piece of work and I only hope that we’ll see the end of this sort of thing. Rudd should set up an enquiry/Royal Commission and get to the bottom of all these things.
Petro Georgio as leader and Malcolm Turnbull as Treasurer.
Noel@113
“well amused by the enthusiam for abbott as leader in this blog. i think his tenure would be filarious. mind you he’s got about as much chance of that as he has of getting to heaven. ”
Gee that’s s bit severe – not even I would bash him that hard. Anyway, I doubt he’d be welcome in Hell.
Congratulations to Prof. Beazley on his new job:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22822197-29277,00.html
William, does this mean that you’ll soon be working with the Bomber?
JoM – Turnbull would take the first opportunity to knife Georgio. He’s clearly a man who thinks he was born to rule.
I made this observation yesterday, that Labor now needs to create its own mantra that enters the sub-concious of the public much in the way of Keating’s 17% and they should be:
1. this is a Keating/China/Global boom economy that has given prosperity
2. decade of wasted prosperity, leaving us behind the world
3. Liberal social divided the country
4. Liberals lived off the politics of fear and intolerance
5. Liberals had no respect for democracy
6. Liberals have given us a inflationary economy
They need to run these lines over and over from now on until the next election – until people take them for granted.
Darn, his ego sure is up there.
If he does succeed lets give him a chance he may have some very good ideas.
So who won the most money? I reckon I’m up for $279 for $30 invested. We should have elections as often as the horseys. I could retire now
LassetersSport offers betting on Next Liberal Party Leader:
TURNBULL, Malcolm: 1.20
NELSON, Dr Brendan: 4.50
ABBOTT, Tony: 9.00
BISHOP, Julie-LIB: 13.00
Any Other Candidate: 21.00
HOCKEY, Joe-LIB: 26.00
DOWNER, ALexander: 34.00
VALE, Danna-LIB: 34.00
“Any other candidate” is a shorter price than Shrek or Dolly?
I like those odds
Dpuble disolusion?
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22821779-601,00.html
Different odds at Sportingbet on the Lib leadership:
Malcolm Turnbull 1.45
Tony Abbott 3.75
Brendan Nelson 4.75
Joe Hockey 7.00
Julie Bishop 9.00
Any Other 10.00
Dana Vale 17.00
Why they are offering odds on Dana Vale is beyond me, but anyway…
167 – Labor now needs to create its own mantra
They need to hammer workchoices – how far it went, and how far it could have gone under a re-elected Liberal govt. The biggest myth pushed by the Howard govt has been the claim of economic management credentials – most of which was due to Hawke/Keating reforms.
Labor made a big mistake in letting the kudos for this slide, so they need to lock in Workchoices as Howard’s “17%”.
JoM – Turnbull may well have some good ideas, but he’d better make sure some version of Workchoices isn’t one of them.
#169, I may have imagined it, but I’m sure someone wrote in an earlier thread they had won of the order of $10,000 on election betting. I’m not sure how much they staked though !
The leadership of the Liberal Party won’t mean anything for 6 years with this win.
A clean out of this lot will be good and I hope that it will be the death of the neo conservatives.
I thought Kevin was all class in his acceptance speech on Saturday and his press conference yesterday. I can’t say the same for Keating in today’s SMH who gave us just as bigger loss as Howard has suffered and is still under the impression that he was loved by the country.
As you can tell I prefer the Hawke style of concensus and nation building than a style of divsion and neglect.
I think Kevin Rudd has this approach and I hope that the party factions know (as it was in 1983). He won the election and he calls the shots.
SL @ 165 – he’ll only be there for a while before taking up the ambassadorship in Washington, I would have thought.
Dana vale as opposition Leader!!!!!! Tell me i’ve died and gone to heaven.
She will ask a question about the economy to the Attorney General. Or maybe she will just fax her questions.
$1.45 on Turnbull seems pretty good odds to me. I can’t see anyone else in that field of alternatives being electable – unless the Liberals are prepared to elect an interim leader, knowing that they will be despatched before the next election..
JOM
The Coalition won’t be able to count on Barnaby Joyce if they resist Workchoices reform. They may not have the numbers
Paladin(169) I had $600 on at $1.95 about four months ago. Net profit – $570.
John of Melbourne… no because the Greens, Steve Fielding and Nick Xenephon will both support some type of amendment to the current Workplace laws.
DLP you’re right. Barnaby Joyce has been very impressive pre and post election. He should move to the lower house and take the Nationals Leadership he definitely has appeal.
LtEP that is post June until then the Coalition has control of the Senate.
Danna Vale might just be stupid enough to have put her hand up. LMAO.
Re 165,
Swing Lowe Says:
Guess that this means Rudd will have to find someone else for the UN and Washington
The Coalition is not suicidal enough to go to a DD election – they would hand Labor a Senate majority and destroy their chances in the lower house for the two elections after that at least, assuming they had any seats left whatsoever. Those ministers in suddenly very marginal looking seats (Pyne etc) would also be rather keen to avoid a DD election which would end their federal careers.
As such, expect a bit of fuss followed by Labor’s anti-WC amendments sailing through the senate with no amendments.
Sorry, I should have said “…those SHADOW ministers…”
I can’t get used to that… but I like the way it sounds!
JoM: Given how maverick Joyce has been, do you think the Libs would want to be in a coalition with Joyce as the leader? It would spell trouble. Some Libs would be very annoyed with the Nats not following the line, even though it would better suit the Nats.
Re 172,
John of Melbourne Says:
Bring it on, bring it on
I want to see triple digit numbers for the ALP seat count 
I meant ‘Joycs as the leader of the Nats’.
***Vale Matt Price, a bright-burning candle, alas too brief***
Re Costello: what a weak, whimpish -and wonderfully welcome- exit he has made from the main stage, tail drooping. Obviously he won’t stay long (March 18 sounds about right) as his “time to forge a new career” comment suggests. He is a smarmy, self-absorbed man, whose brand of parliamentary schtick was lauded by the commentariat but which I always found laborious, poorly constructed, predictable and unfunny. His punchlines were telegraphed and suffered from the smugness inherent in their delivery. WILL NOT BE MISSED.
LTEP -how about “Let Them Eat Pork”? And please, mate, could you predict that the Dockers will narrowly lose next year’s Grand Final? That would give me great hope.
In other news, I have heard an interesting if slightly implausible rumour – Julian Burnside QC to replace Gleeson CJ as Chief Justice of the High Court.
Maybe not as crazy as it sounds, but it would be a brutal correction to Howard’s years of stacking the Court.
Incidentally, it’s worth reflecting how important this election result is to the future of the Australian legal system. Another two Howard appointments and independent legal though would have been in real danger on the High Court.
In addition, it’s interesting to reflect that Howard has managed to stack the Court, get the WorkChoices decision in favour of the Commonwealth, and then hand power straight to his ideological nemesis to do what it will with the unfettered power that results…
The Dockers will lose next year’s Grand Final in the same way that the Shooters Party lost this year’s federal election.
Regards,
A Geelong Supporter
LTEP, got a new name for ya:
“I Can’t Believe It’s Not Opposition”
I wonder if John Howard has worked out yet that the beginning of the end for him was when he introduced workchoices. There are none so blind as those who will not see.
I think the new Opposition’s best bet would be to bring back Richard Alston.
JoM: Brandis is a fool. The Business Council of Australia is welcoming a clear result and is willing to work with Labor on IR. Economists have come out in saying that scrapping AWAs will not be inflationary, which takes the wind out of the sails of Libs attack on the Labor’s IR policy. Also the election may not have been totally about IR, but it was a big issue and any attempt by the new opposition to keep WorkChoices will look very badly on them.
I’m sure the Rudd government will be willing to risk a DD given the majority it has. Are the Libs in a financial position to go round 2 with Labor?
Finally, doesn’t seem like parliament will sit until February, so that would mean May would be the 2nd time to put the legislation through, and almost a waste of time to go for a DD once a less hostile Senate is around in July.
The budget will the big thing in May, if the Libs block it (or talk about blocking it) they will pay a price too.
This will be the coalition’s last battle really, and in that sense they will look like poor losers if they try to force Rudd’s hand on a DD.
167 and others on Labor’s need for a new mantra
Good call, a mantra is exactly what Labor needs. I think it needs to be a single soundbyte — like “Beazley’s black hole” — that sums up the way the Libs have let Australia slide during their watch, by not investing in education, technology and infrastructure. Something like the “lost years”, perhaps.
I also agree that Labor needs to start properly “branding” its history, and the Hawke/Keating economic reforms. You can understand why they haven’t done this during the election campaign; Keating’s perceived “baggage”, the recession we had to have, and all the rest of it.
To repeat myself, though, most of all I hope they start using a mantra to sum up the Howard years. If we do hit economic tough times, people need to be able to understand that one of the reasons they have happened has been this lack of investment in infrastructure, training, broadband, research, science, and so on.
However, I’m not sure they will. Remember that the FIRST THING Rudd did in his victory speech was pat Howie on the back (something that went down like a lead balloon in the Randwick Labor Club, let me tell you — can you imagine Keating doing it?). I fear that the new Labor team might see this as too negative and too much the “politics of the past”, a laudable attitude but one that could really work against them.
Patrick Bateman,
There is no way Rudd will replace Gleeson with Burnside. Burnside is too much of a loose cannon and conservative commentators everywhere will shows that it is evidence of the culture wars being reignited – exactly what Rudd doesn’t need at the start of his term.
My tip for Gleeson’s replacement will be Jim Spiegelman, Chief Justice of the NSW Supreme Court. He’s liberal (in the American sense) to please the Labor Left (he was the complainants’ barrister in the Stolen Generations case), but with enough judicial experience to quell any conservative concerns.
If the Coalition block the repeal of WorkChoices they will have no chance of winning the 2010 election.
147 Brandis certainly seemed in believe in the Mandate theory in this Maxine McKew interview in 2005.
GEORGE BRANDIS: Well, I think in the first place, it will mean that the government will be able to deliver on the mandate that it’s received. If you look at the legislation that’s been held up in the Senate in the past, most of that legislation is legislation for which the government has received a mandate, not once, but now at four successive elections, most notably the industrial relations legislation. Now, I’ve lost count, honestly, of the number of times on which that package of bills has been knocked back. Last time I counted, I think it was about 17 times. That has been a manifesto commitment of the government at each one of the last four federal elections, but our Labor opponents, under the Whip from the trade unions, have knocked it back. We’ll be able to pass it and so give effect to the people’s expressed wishes at the election. Can I broaden that point to make a different point? Just because the government has a majority in the Senate, where does the notion come from that that’s un-democratic? I remember in years gone by when Mr Keating and Mr Hawke and before that Mr Whitlam were the Prime Minister, the Labor Party would say, “Well, how undemocratic can this be, that the Senate is holding up legislation which we the Labor Government committed to at elections?” When the boot’s on the other foot, somehow the argument changes.
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2005/s1321817.htm
Labor needs to create a few economic mantras in case the world economy turns down or inflation keeps rising.
They need to put it firmly in the mind of the electorate that it is the fault of the Liberal party – ie Decade of wasted prosperity, Decade of misspent surpluses increasing infalation, the prosperous economy that we have had firmly identified with Keating and the current boom times; noting that Howard and Co basically did nothing.
This will be an important mantra to create – because we don’t know how the world economy is going to progress over the next few years, especially the USA.
My Saturday night euphoria was slightly tempered by the return of Michael Keenan in Stirling, albeit with his slender margin further thinned. I met Peter Tinely at my local service station about 10.30 Saturday night and he looked pretty well knackered. I commiserated and offered the consolation that at least we were in government, and there was always 2010/2011. “Are you up for another go?” I asked as he turned towards his car. He turned back. His face lit up. “Shit yeah!”
Good find steve.
steve @ 138
“A compunding problem as the Liberals squabble over the spoils of defeat will be that they will very likely not have sufficient funds to mount a campaign state or Federal for many years.”
Does anyone have a read on their current financial position. They chewed through a shed load of cash at this campain – the cupboard may be bare.
Labor should say that the economy is a means to improve living standards, it isn’t an end unto itself.
If people don’t benefit from a growing economy, then there is no point growing the economy.
Maxine has claimed Bennelong.
Well she kind of did and kind of didn’t.
I thought the latest was that she expects a result by Friday.
darn – i think serfchoices, whilst a big factor, was not the only reason for the baseball bats swinging. i’d like to think that it was a pattern of behaviour that eventually caught up with howard et al. and omigod, a GIFT to the ALP – that ridiculous transition-to-the smirk scenario.
I would love to see the Mad Monk as leader with the Stroke Victim as deputy. What a classic combination that would be! lol
Vaile’s press conference to resign his leadership is coming up soon – 2pm.
Good to hear. Tinley is a top notch candidate.
Would you dare utter the words ‘dream team’, Dario?
ELECTION FALLOUT – Sky News has scheduled a media conference for Mark Vaile shortly live on Sky. NO hint as to the content of his statement.
“The Wasted Years” has already been said a few times on this blog. I suggest that as the “mantra” description of Howard/Costello.
It’s got the added advantage of explinaining why you shouldn’t vote Liberal in 2010 even if the economy is slowing. It’s their fault – they wasted the good times.
Great get Steve @ 205.
Will Vaile announce the Nats will break the Coalition too? Please God, let it be true.
I don’t think the Nationals have a future anyway (and don’t care), but does anyone know if the nats have someone to succeed Mark Vaile, or will it just be a differently branded sheep in the top paddock?
Three coalition leaders taken out in one election – eat that Malcolm Fraser!
Is the Stroke Victim Warren Truss?
It would be hilarious if the Howdy Doody man of Australian politics – Peter Maguaran – became deputy leader of the Opposition.
Labor will be better for regional Australia than the Coalition ever was.
Look at Dawson! 20% swings to Labor in some booths.
Nah, Robb
Absolutely!
The most important influence Howard’s defeat will have on the future of Australian politics, I believe, will be in underlining the fact that current and future high profile politicians will have a much-reduced shelf-life. The ubiquity of modern media and the intensity of its scrutiny mean that PMs, in particular, appear so often on our TVs that we tire of them so much sooner. Menzies’ reign would not have been half as long in the modern era.
I believe Rudd is astute enough to recognise this factor and will be Australia’s first PM since Menzies to leave at a time of his own choosing -I’m guessing in seven to eight years- and handing over to our first-ever female PM. Julia Gillard will easily defeat Julie Bishop at the 2016 election, during which the Liberals will be replaced by the Greens as the major Opposition party
lol with you Dario@212. they’d be hard pressed to come up with a grimmer pairing.
ShowsOn: Yeah, amazing! Though, for the Tories to be powerful again both parties need to rebuild. Only way the Nats can rebuild is by breaking away from the Libs and actually voting for/against policy based on their party’s ideology not the Libs.
The only reason the Nats and Libs haven’t merged is due to QLD and the fact the Nats are the senior party of the coalition there. Until the Nats in QLD become minor, I dare say the QLD coalition will merge. The only other thing is for the other states to start the ball rolling and leave the QLD branches the last to do anything (as usual).
oops, dario, i assumed ’stroke victim’ was brendan nelson….but on reflection he’s more like Ruddock of the Undead.
On second thought, The Mad Monk should be the leader of the Liberals. At the infamous meeting at Manl-Warringah Leagues Club he said something about giving someone a boot up the arse. Maybe we could compile a list for him, lets see who needs a good boot up the bum – Julie Bishop, Alexander Downer, Malcolm Turnbull, Christopher Pyne ….
Better still they could do it as fund raiser!
I always thought of Ruddock as a stroke victim.
Mouth is all smiles but the eyes are dead.
http://www.ag.gov.au/agd/WWW/rwpgslib.nsf/GraphicFilesPersonal/(CFD7369FCAE9B8F32F341DBE097801FF)~Ruddock+FLC/$FILE/Ruddock+Philip25percent.jpg
Melbourne is tipped to be a marginal seat. Greens have jumped over Libs on pre-postals and prefs favour them from Socialists and Democrats.
Lisa: Intersting.
Doesn’t Tanner still have 50% primaries though?
Mark Vaile is a complete personality vacuum.
He has just resigned from the leadership of the Nationals.
Yes, 50.82
Plus, a lot of the Liberal votes will leak to Tanner anyway.
After nearly 12 years, we finally have a Deputy Prime Minister to be proud of.
Vaile resigns??
Benelong gone to Maxine…
This just gets better and better. If Richard DN gets into the senate my joy will be complete.
I certainly believe the ALP would be wise to bring forward their IR legislation while the Libs control the senate.
Either they back down, or they block it till July.
Either way, its a PR win for Rudd.
Did anyone hear Keating on The World Today?
He called Abbott a Young Fogey – Howard was the Old Fogey – Abbott is just the same, but younger.
I completely agree with him, Abbott as leader would be going backwards, because Abbott won’t admit that anything Howard did was wrong.
Oh- forgot to mention another bit of icing – a big swing against Sophie Mirrabella. In the order of 8%….lol.
Popcorn (211) I agree with you that there were other causes as well, but it was evident in the polls at the time that workchoices started the big slide and Howard never recovered after that.
She’s my new De-Anne Kelly. Hopefully she gets kicked out at the next election, her only redeeming feature is her Labor voting husband.
Leaving with dignity
Noticed on ABC that McKew has all but claimed victory in Bennelong saying “Bennelong is now a Labor seat”. Her lead can’t be passed on postals.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/26/2101269.htm
Point is, under Westminster conventions the beaten candidate is supposed to concede before the winner claims victory. But Howard is dragging his feet.
Vaile’s gone!
That’s my (more believable) mail too – apparently the deal is done for Spiegelman. As I said, the Burnside thing was implausible, but I do think it’s not completely unimaginable.
I would love to see French J get the nod – unfortunately I think he has some Lib connections in WA though, but from a purely legal point of view he’d be gold.
SMH has just got a story up about Vaile resigning. Wants a new career in the portk industry.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007/new-shock-as-vaile-quits/2007/11/26/1196036785226.html
I think Howard pretty well conceded Bennelong on Saturday night.
Re Bennelong, the AEC site still shows about 1400 absent and postals not counted, but she’s ahead enough to win, apparently. That’s how it appears to me.
Further to what ShowsOn says about Abbott not being prepared to admit any errors on the part of Howard:
No senior member of the Coalition has publicly denounced Howard or his policies, despite their comprehensive vote of no confidence in him as leader weeks ago.
I don’t think the Coalition will be in a position to rebuild until it can publicly admit the errors and missed opportunities of the Howard years.
So while many might delight in the carnage of Vale and Brough losing their seats, Costello quitting politics and Vaile resigning the Nats leadership, these are the very things that will allow the Coalition to start again and challenge in 2013/2016.
Vaile’s resigning before the inevitable inquiry.
Maxine will win by over 1000 votes. My analysis suggest around 1350 votes. No problem.
Vaile in the pork industry! LOL
Oh, too clever!
The party slogan was always “Let them eat pork”, huh?
Isn’t Keating in the pork industry?
The new Liberal leader needs to:
1) Support the ratification of Kyoto, to prove he isn’t a climate change denier.
2) Let Labor pass all their I.R. amendments
3) Support Australia becoming a Republic
Basically they need to get all those issues out of the way within the first 6 months so they can start defining what they stand for.
Vaile quits. Nice one Mark. How many more rats are there on board? In this picture for the GG website Vaile indicates just how small he feels after Saturday’s debacle
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/
I’ve always thought of Sophie Mirabella as a young Bronny Bishop.
Speaking of young fogeys, I didn’t hear Keating today but he used that line about Abbott years ago, and it was funnier then cos Abbott was only in his 30s.
John of Melbourne Says:
Isn’t Keating in the pork industry?
Yes, but thankfully for us, he is using his own money.
Kirribilli Removals, maaaaaate.
Can you leave that job in the wine cellar for a minute, mate, and hive over to the Vote Counting Depot?
Them slackers need a bloody rocket up them!!!!
He was a skater boy
She said “see ya later boy”
He wasn’t good enough for her
Now he’s a superstar
Slammin on his guitar
Does your pretty face see what he’s worth?
He was a skater boy
She said “see ya later boy”
He wasn’t good enough for her
Now he’s a superstar
Slammin on his guitar
Did your pretty face see what he’s worth?
Good riddance Vaile. The Forrest Gump of Australian politics: always in the background but with no obvious reason for existence. In his early days as a Minister he was run by a particularly rank office staff and I saw no signs of improvement more recently.
Marvellous Marvin 249
You are right. As long as the Liberals can’t admit where they failed, its the decade in opposition they had to have
Vaile’s turning to professional skateboarding.
The Liberal’s attack on Keating’s piggery was always based around the class notion that a Labor politician shouldn’t own a business, and especially not a livestock business.
BV – I hope Michael Brissendon uses that song under his story tonight.
The Nationals should set up a roster for being leader, and rotate it every 3-6 months. They don’t have many to choose from.
Amanda Vanstone is also into pork.
Loving the recriminations and latter-day recantations at the GG: Pm’s Hubris leaves Liberal party in ruins! etc.
hehe. Will be enjoying reading the GG for weeks.
Yes John of Melbourne, Keating and the Labor Party just killed the pig!
I can’t recall the ALP ever renouncing the Hawke/Keating years in order to help them rebuild post 96. I doubt there will be too much public renouncing from the Coalition either. They do need a generational shift though. One of Beazley’s problems was his association with the Hawke/Keating government (though I still think he’d have made a wonderful PM). For now I think they will stick to what they know….Turnbull is still too green (in terms of experience if not politics); Nelson has no balls and Downer is a joke. I’m guessing they’ll go for Abbott to try and take it up to Kevin in parliament. It won’t work of course but first term opposition leaders rarely do.
ShowsON
“The Liberal’s attack on Keating’s piggery was always based around the class notion that a Labor politician shouldn’t own a business, and especially not a livestock business.”
Its really a confusing position, isn’t it ShowsOn. I mean, if Labor politicians become capitalists, Liberals criticise. Yet if they stay union officials, they are criticised more. Quite hard to please, these Liberals. I think they really want a one-party State (not that they’re communists or anything!) So you can either be Liberals (ruling class) or workers (serving class). What would we do without them to guide us?
Don’t know if anyone has posted this nice little update yet, enjoy!
http://www.domain.com.au/Public/PropertyDetails.aspx?adid=2006832414
Don’t tell me the Minister for Horseflu is a chance of becoming a Leader of a Federal Party. It doesn’t get better than that does it?
http://www.nationals.org.au/ourteam/mps/mcgauran_p.asp
LeftE
I’m looking forward to the story “Milne and Shanahan’s Hubris leaves Howard’s sense of reality in ruins” LOL
Its amusing seeing all the right wing print journos repositioning themselves as people who “saw it coming”. Even funnier will be the light weight TV reporters who said on Friday night “its too close to call” spending this week saying why Saturday’s result was inevitable.
If Nelson wins the Liberal leadership, Labor will probably run a scare campaign on evil Union leaders dominating and owning the Party.
Hey Neilbris, are you related to Hughbris?
Just a personal reflection, but I really cannot see Turnbull getting the numbers, despite his oversized ego, he is not experienced enough, is not trusted enough, and is way too ‘liberal’ for the hardnuts. Of course he’ll try, so get ready for a very fine show.
Big problem of course is that they need someone with experience but who is not tainted with the craven power games of Howard. Hmm, hard to see who could fit the bill, so they’ll have to compromise (what else?).
My gut feeling is that they’ll need a tough guy to reign in the factions and someone to take the barrage that awaits them when their bums hit the opposition benches. This person is Abbott, hide like a rhino and maybe with enough testosterone left after the party’s ballot whipping.
Whatever, it’s going to be a knock’em down fist fight. Get ya popcorn ready.
I live in Lowe (seat next to Bennelong), but can someone please tell me where the f*** is the suburb of Balaclava (in Bennelong) is?
I have lived here for 18 years and I have no idea where Maxine McKew was talking about in the ABC article, where she said there was a big swing in Balaclava…
There’s no suburb called Balaclava, but there is Balaclava Road in Marsfield, which is what I imagine she’s talking about.
Hi Jude.
No. Why?
239 Show’s On:
re the libs leadership, PJK also said:
He preferred Nelson when he had an earring, and
Referring to his (PK’s) famous cracker night speech, he said Turbull reminded him of the big Red bunger – “you know, you light it up, and you expect a big bang, but mostly it just goes “Pfft”".
Ah, that makes sense Steph. Thanks
Balaclava – Epping Boys High School, Vimiera Rd, MARSFIELD NSW 2122
Guys, can you give Kirribilli Removals my message at 258. When he shows up. I gotta go for a while.
Thanks.
I think Abbott would be a huge mistake for the Liberals
He doesn’t believe in climate change
He is a monarchist
He won’t admit that WorkChoices was a factor in the loss
Basically he would continue Howard’s legacy, instead of repudiating parts of it.
But if the Liberals want an opposition leader who they can get rid of in 2 or 3 years then he is probably ideal. He won’t win an election though.
Balaclava ?
maybe Maxine was referring to a big swing in where the balaclava (baseball) bat
was heading
Jude @ # 275
LOL
PJK certainly loves his fireworks analogies doesn’t he?
KR. I agree that they’ll go for Abbott – which should at least make for some fireworks in question time. The smell of Howard will hang around his neck like a dead dog though. I doubt he’ll remain leader till the next election.
Kirribilli 276
I agree with your reasoning and I’d lvoe to see Abbott as Liberal leader, but not for the Liberal’s sake. Abbott is a typical bully character – on the attack when the referee (PM and speaker) is on his side). But in parliament as an opposition leader, with a speaker who will pull him into line for behavioural issues, he will struggle. The first time a social issue like access to RU486 comes along, he could go ballistic. Should be fun to watch.
Labor lead in Swan is now UP to 44 votes – that seat is going down to the wire…
The WORST POLITICALLY (for labor) as opposition leader would be Turnbull
Hopefully the Liberals disagree and go for Nelson who has the numbers
(per Centrebet)
Shrek has dropped out of the leadership race.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22822394-601,00.html
Swing Lowe at 277
She’s talking about the polling booth at Epping Boys High, on Balaclava Rd in Marsfield.
According to the AEC site there was an 8% TPP swing to her in that booth.
What was that nauseating comment of Abbott’s years ago? Something like if he were twice the man he (Abbott) is, he’d only be half the man Howard is. He could run for the leadership on the grounds that he’s only a quarter John Howard.
Please let it be Tony Abbott.
I’m not sure who else is left to yell at on the telly anymore.
Abbott – the leader with 75% less Howard. Might just work
288
Neilbris
The prospect is just so damn tantalizing isn’t it? The Mad Monk V Bankbull, it’s kinda God V Mammon!
In some ways I want to see an old Howardista in the front seat, because they really deserve to get the blowtorch. A neophyte like Malcolm can dodge a lot of it, which is one reason he may in fact get up, but they’d be holding their noses.
It depends on whether or not they still want to hold onto the Great Leader’s mythology, or if they’ve got the nads to repudiate it. This will be a great dividing line, like the remnant backbone to the rotting cadaver that they have become.
i don’t know what shrek has been smoking – he’s going to “work tirelessly for liberal re-election in three years time”. i don’t think so.
Keating was funny but I think Rudd approached the acknowledgement to Howard in the appropriate manner, as did Gillard.
Whether we like it or not, any hubris at this stage would be political poison.
Remember how the Libs used that footage of Labour celebrating a win by dancing and enjoying themselves to devestating effect, could not bear that sort of crap happening again.
No need to twist the knife given the huge win and the way the Libs are imploding. Sit back and enjoy.
Swing Lowe at 201
Hmmnn Don’t forget that before the MUA case Burnside was an establishment lawyer. I think Justice Vincent from the VSCA would be a strong contender.
Jen, I’m sure we’ll all start to yell at Kevin soon enough.
Neilbris at 296 – LOL
Speaking of using/abusing the powers of government (Abbott and access to RU486) I have heard some disturbing anecdotal stories about Nelson knocking back ARC research grant proposals along politicla lines. Do any academics present have any views on the truth of this? Moreover, does anyone know what Labor plans to do with this body?
Another issue that burns in tertiary education is the nitroduction of the “research quality framework” which has been an albatross around the necks of many university departments for some 18 months. It is one of those “can’t win” type issues. The RQF was badly thought out and some details stll haven’t been amde clear after over a year. Meanwhile academic departments have spent millions getting ready for it, so junking it will not be easy either. But it does need fixing – yet another idealogically driven coalition policy mess. Xanthippe has threatened to look for another career if it stays the same, and that concerns Socrates deeply. Midn, if Rudd wants to stop academics leaving the system, RQF is a good place to start looking at.
IMO there is a need for reform to several tertiay education structures, not just more money. Has anyone seen any Labor policy detail?
Kim Wilkie’s lead is down to 44 votes in Swan.
Socrates, Nelson is notorious for knocking back ARC research proposals that were perceived as not flattering to the government, or were centred around what Miranda Devine and her ilk termed worthless – eg gender society, cultural studies etc. He also stacked the board of the ARC with Liberal supporters.
Looks like Mark Vaile will have lots more time to spend skateboarding.
EXCLUSIVE: Mark Vaile resignation speech
“My mouth is in indirect proportions to my brain. I wish I could have shut up a lot more, not because I would have come across as half coherent, but because of the amount of flies I had to swallow in my career…”
No doubt Abbott is putting it all on the line. If he loses will he quit too? Being passed over at this stage would not auger well for his future prospects. Does he sit on the back bench brooding and plotting or does he get out and get a real job.
The fallout from Saturday is like being at a ten green bottle party.
Steph
Yes that is pretty much what I have heard too. In some cases the board was just plain ignorant, knocking back people who were good researchers and quite apolitical, because (I presume) they didn’t appreciate the significance of the reasearch. If my information is correct, that body bady needs a clean out.
ALP was making very negative noises about the RQF about two weeks ago, Socrates.here’s hoping.
And yes, Nelson used to bump ARC off the final list prepared by the Council. He used to recruit Windschuttle and Bolt to help out – they’d read the titles and 100 word summaries for that purpose – ie have no real idea what it was about.
Once again, it demonstrated the coalition’s shaky grip of democratic governance. They figured it means ‘they decide everything’ – where in fact, in means they decide policy settings, and the public service applies those rules neutrally, according to meritocratic principles, and due process.
Actually Swing Lowe… it’s up. It was lower than that this morning.
#307
Yes, I heard the same speech. He continued on… “I wish I hadn’t fallen off my skateboard so often, or at least worn a helmet. Let this be a lesson to you young kids.”
KR. Jesus reckoned that mammon would always beat God – in the battle for human loyalty at least. In this case I think god will beat mammon. They probably don’t want to see Turnbull destroyed just yet…..or maybe they do! And I agree – there will be some satisfaction in seeing Abbott plastered with all the sins of the Howard years and slowly (cos Labor will want to do him slowly) disappearing under a pile of sh*t
The leadership ballot will be interesting only in how close it will be. If it is a narrow win the Libs are split down the middle – probably fatally for many years.
I suspect this will be the case, will it be the uglies or the moderates who get up?
Looks like support for Abbott is becoming universal.
http://theorstrahyun.blogspot.com/2007/11/tony-abbott-i-want-to-lead-liberal.html
Lest we forget: see (courtesy of Crikey) http://www.motherjones.com/mojoblog/archives/2007/11/6277_a_look_back_at.html?source=cmailer
Abbott as leader will guarantee that the coalition will not rebuild its women’s vote before 2010. So lots of new Labor members in now marginal Labor seats should love that.
The real issue should be this, every one of the Liberal leadership potentials (leader and deputy leader) could be into their sixties before we get back in so nearly 10 years, thus we’re going to take a punt on Turnbull we might as well do it now though i believe Nelson would hold the Party together better than Mr T.
Julie Bishop will be the deputy leader IMHO.
Liberal 2007 FM: where the hits just keep on coming!
Oh boy, this sentence from P-Dwarf’s column at the GG is deeply gratifying:
“Even during the campaign Costello was giving private assurances he was in for the long haul. But on Saturday night as he watched the Coalition defeat unfold things were changing. “It was the magnitude (of the loss) that did it,” says one Liberal who watched the process of conversion.”
Ah, the GG. So many quality articles to enjoy… I could watch them eat crow forever….
Is anyone serious in suggesting Turnbull will make a good opposition leader?
He couldn’t even get the Republiuc up even though 70% of the country wanted one.
Surely the Labor line on Turnbull will be, ‘Do you really believe that a man who doesn’t think you are smart enough to elect your own President will govern in your interest?’
For all of the bleating of the latte lappers and doctor’s wives during the campaign, in the end they still felt they had more in common with Howard’s vision of Australia than Rudd’s.
It was the workers what done the Coalition in. These are the people that the Liberals have to win back and Turnbull has sweet f a chance of doing that.
I can’t think of anyone on the opposition benches who will win back the middle ground for the Coalition.
Kennett has demonstrated his ability to win the middle ground in the past and will have no fear in taking the stick to the radical right of the Liberal party.
Tony Abbott reciting Downer – ‘The things that batter’
Vaile is gone so who’ll lead the Nats, McGauran, Truss?
Agree with punters and bookies.
Turnbull is Liberal’s best bet given their current resource.
Anybody else, say Abbott, Nelson…, and Coalition will stay in opposition for as long as these idiots leading the Liberal.
I do wonder if, having had some time to think it over, Turnbull isn’t regretting rushing into the race so early. Shame his brain doesn’t match his ego.
Realistically if Turnbull takes it now he’ll be destroyed. Actually, realistically anyone who takes it now will be destroyed. Might as well make it the Monk I suppose and let him cop the flak. Might be the best thing in the long-term – their support is going to plummet which might (that’s might) send a message to the religious right.
Mind you, if Rudd calls a DD with Abbott still as leader, they’re screwed.
Regarding the ARC research proposals, there were about 2 or 3 instances where Nelson rejected them AFTER they had been allocated money by the ARC college of experts, and deigned worthy of funding. That is the particular thing that academics are unhappy about, as this is clearly a breach of academic freedom and to me, as an academic, is one of the most contemptuous things about the Howard government.
Glen,
To be fair, I agree with you that it should be Nelson ahead of Abbott. Nelson is not exciting, but wont offend people and won’t cost any more votes. Hence you could rebuild a little. Abbott by contrast is both closely linked to Howard and capable of saying somethign that could offend at any time. You can’t afford that.
That beign said, I do think Nelson has some baggage on ARC dealings that will embarrass when it comes out. But Abbott probably still ahs more.
HAHAHHAHAHAHAH Christian Kerr (former Liberal staffer) says that when Costello resigns from parliament his successor in Higgins should be Michael Kroger!
http://www.crikey.com.au/Election-2007/20071126-Kerr-Costello-bastardry-and-brilliance.html
If we go with Malcolm he’s our brightest star, if we use him up now we’re f’ed in future. I say go with Nelson if he loses 2010 meh, then get Malcolm in.
Julie, Julie, Julie, Julie, Julie, Julie, Julie, Julie, Julie, Julie, Julie, Julie 4 deputy.
Pyne – noooooo way!
Robb – zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz!
322 [Vaile is gone so who’ll lead the Nats, McGauran, Truss?]
Glen, I seriously doubt that Truss could lead a horse to water.
Geez Glen, Nelson has a hard time holding himself together. What makes you think he can hold a disspirited Coalition team together?? The neocons don’t trust him and the wets now hold their meetings in a cubicle of the parliamentary mens room (so as not to be noticed by the neocons). The loos are comfortable and all but way too big for the number of wets who meet there. So who is going to ensure Nelson gets the numbers and what makes you think he will suddenly grow sufficiently sized testicles to keep what’s left of his party from feasting on each other’s dying corpses???
Glen @ 318
WOuldn’t you be concerned with putting Turnbull in now? I see him as the most electable of the Libs (which is a loaded statement really, given that i’d never vote Liberal). If he’s put in now, he’d face all the disadvantages that face new oppositions and probably be tapped on the shoulder after losing the next election anyway…..
If he took it now then I would disagree. Labor is almost guaranteed two terms, and all that time as opposition leader would not be good for Turnbull IMO. I think his best bet would be to wait in the wings and take over around a year after the next election.
I am sceptical that he would have the numbers right now in any case. His self-obsessed performance this election will not have endeared him well with his colleagues, in particular the uglies.
326
Socrates – true nobody is perfect, and neither is Rudd but we need stability and i think Nelson could do this for us.
The problem is most of these Ministers, Bishop, Turnbull, Nelson, Abbott are all in their 50s or mid 50s so by the time we get back in they’ll be into their sixties some of them. We’ve got to in a 1 years time boot half a dozen MPs and hold by-elections to replace old used up MPs to get some young ppl in or we will be f’ed.
It doesn’t really matter who the Liberals make opposition leader now because he or she has next to no chance of ever becoming P.M.
The next Liberal P.M. probably isn’t in parliament yet.
He’ll probably pick up the West Australians, many NSW MPs and a few Queenslanders if he works with Julie Bishop. Nelson has been in Parliament for 11 years he’ll have the numbers its just whether he wants it.
glen, seriously, julie bishop?? i understand that you’re pushed for talent in the liberal party but you’re gonna have to raise your standards if you don’t want to remain in the wilderness for more than a decade!
btw, some interesting inside word from the union movement contact down here:
Q: Which two seats were the big focus of the “your Rights at Work” campaign in VIC?
A: Deakin and Corangamite
Popcorn – If you’re interested this article by Shaun Carney in The Age on the part Workchoices played in the downfall of Howard and Costello is a good read.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/escaping-the-wreckage/2007/11/25/1195975866024.html
The unfortunate thing for political parties with all-powerful autocratic leaders like John Howard, is when they leave, an inevitable power vacuum is left behind. The liberals now find themselves in a similar situation to the British conservative party post Thatcher in 1990. The only difference is her own party skewered her when she was losing the plot, before she lead them into the electoral abyss, and surprisingly gained an extra term out of John Major.
334
ShowsOn – no they are but we won’t use our cannon (Turnbull) till he can have a big effect.
Barring a global recession, the Libs have got 6 years to get their act together.
Forget 2010.
you are so right, showson – none of this current crop of losers is going to be PM.
Or you could just parachute in some of your talent from the State branches. Oh wait…
Glen well done on sticking around here despite your party’s disaster on the weekend.
I think Turnbull is the best bet but much better to wait a term then take over from the leader who loses in 2010. Abbott is the best option if you want a 3 + terms in opposition
He’ll be 60 years old before he has a chance of becoming P.M.
By then Bill Shorten will be Prime Minister – 15 years his junior.
darn @ 338 – thanks, darn, i’ll check it out.
326 [we need stability and i think Nelson could do this for us.]
Glen, I personally think that is a great idea put up two failed education ministers and let Labor flog them for three years with their education revolution. All I can say for the libs if they go down that high risk path is ‘forgive them for they know not what they do.’
If Mal Brough had have retained Longman, I suspect he would have at least been a candidate for the deputy leadership. I actually agree with Glenn, Julie Bishop would be a good choice as deputy.
Steve @ 322,
The problem for the Nats is that there aren’t that many people who could run to be their leader.
If it’s not Truss, it’s McGauran (who’s rubbish). If it’s not the above two, who else could it be? Cobb in Calare? Forrest in Mallee?
Their best chances of some sort of generational change (Parr and Hartsuyker) are both stuck in marginal seats (Hinkler and Cowper respectively), meaning that they are unlikely to want to take on the responsibility of being leader of the party.
So my guess is that Truss will become leader, McGauaran deputy and the rest will either be looking forward towards retirement or hanging onto their seats next time around…
Left E – Corangamite wasn’t main focus due to a whole host of issues, but a number of unions funded it regardless. Deakin and La Trobe were the main two.
The other option for the Nats is to call it a day and merge with the Libs. Given the current leadership vacuum in both parties, it may be time to pull the pin – nobody will get their nose out of joint by losing a leadership position.
Glen,
As I said before, I think the Nats should just rotate their leaders every 3-6 months, like having a roster or something. It’s not like they count these days.
As for the Liberal leadership, that’s got to be a hard choice. Turnbull should not of put his hand up, and he should of went for deputy and shadow treasurer. If he loses the ballot, he can be sure to only be a junior shadow minister if anything.
I’ll leave it to the powers that be, but I still think the next Lib PM will not be in parliament at the moment.
Ptobias i guess you and Wilson Tuckey have something you agree on.
I think its a joke the Nats havent merged with us but meh?
Reflecting on the election makes me wonder whether there have been three major wins:
unions will not be demonised again
fairness in the workplace is not a given
a mantra of economic good times will never be enough to win support (and a side issue is how this claim has been contested so it may finally be acknowledged that the electorate is more politically savvy than the mainstream media give us credit for)
Ok, RGee – well, that will make it doubly interesting if latrobe sneaks home for ALP.
‘Your Rights at Work’ really did a lot of the hard yards, no?
I think Julie Bishop is a poor choice. I hate to say it, but she is just too creepy.
If I were a Lib, I would want to see Nelson (OL) and Robb (Dept) with Turnbull in a position like Shadow Treasurer.
As a Union Thug, I’d love to see Abbott and Dolly take the leadership roles…
@ 354
I meant fairness in the workplace is now a given
Glen possibly because the Nats don’t want to. Why would they do it and put themselves out of power? They would lose complete control of their own party.
Lefty E – Yes.. for 2+ years.
Is a coalition in opposition worthwhile?? Why would Libs want to give the deputy opposition leader position to a party with only 10 members? Besides, the Nats need to be free to develop some seriously rural-focussed policies.
Who are these gnats of which you speak?
What is their purpose?
The National Party ist Kaput!
Yes, Peterm – and I think a wider significance will be the political death of a very shallow neo-liberal notion of “the economy”.
its gotta work for people – not just the big end of town.
Landeryou is suggesting that the Lib Wets have thrown their support behind Turnbull, with the Right throwing their support behind Abbott. Seems like Nelson is going to get squeezed…
The big issue for the Nats is whether to break the Coalition and go it alone. This was an effective tactic for the Nats in Victoria, who survived by going back to being an old-style Country Party while Bracks decimated the Libs.
However, it’s a divisive issue, and could split a party that’s barely big enough to split any more!
Another option is a merger of the conservative parties, which is quite sensible, but merger moves would end up with the right of the Nats and the left of the Libs being violently opposed.
There are no senior Nats left who’d be remotely appealing to the electorate as Leader, or who would have the skills to head the parliamentary party. Truss might make a stopgap, but he’s too old. The one thing he has in his favour is that he’s a Queenslander. If the Nats ever needed a Queenslander to lead them, it’s now.
In short, the Nats are stuffed even more than the Liberals. They rely on the Coalition agreement to stop the Libs taking their seats. And whenever they lose a seat (eg Farrer and Murray), it’s gone forever. Maranoa and Mallee will be the last bastions, and even they could get knocked off by a good local independent one day.
Oh Ho – Glen
Keating stirs the Liberal leadership pot
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/keating-stirs-the-liberal-leadership-pot/2007/11/26/1196036789843.html
Is Landeryou still blogging after last weekend?
Someone should give Keating a full-time talk back show.
Glen,
The reason the Nats won’t merge is because of QLD. Their only bastion of hope of ever being in power.
As I said, the other state branches should start the ball rolling and leave it up to QLD to being last as usual.
The Nats talk the talk of conservatives but walk the walk of socialists
As I said before, the Nats were bloody lucky to hold onto Parkes and Calare. The only thing that saved them was the surprisingly high Labor vote in those electorates (around 25%) when they were running dead, which meant they finished higher than the independents running in those seats.
If the independents had finished higher than Labor, then they would likely have won on the back of Labor and Greens preferences. The Nats primary in both those seats was around 45-47% – not enough to hold on…
Antonio – be interesting to see the ALP invest more in the Country Labor brand.
Always thought that was a good idea. Times are changing outback- with signal issue like climate change cutting across old ideological lines.
I AGREE WITH PAUL J KEATING WTF?????
Well i guess i agree with Mr Recession after all.
Interesting to hear on the news last night that the Libs didn’t have screw-in-ears at the Bennelong count.
They obviously don’t want any arguments about the validity of any ballot paper being claimed as a vote for the ALP as a primary or by way of preference or claim any for the Liberals.
The Rodent obviously wants out at any cost.
Judi Moylan saying that Bishop should be the next leader on 702.
Clearly she hates her guts.
In Bowman, the Labor lead is now down to 55 votes. In Swan, it is down to 42. That said, I’m surprised the Labor vote in Swan has held up this far, given how advanced the count is…
ourassem – you mind stopping with the spam.
It’s a trifecta, Howard, Costello and Vaile dethroned.
Downer will go tomorrow. Abbott after he loses the leadership battle.
You didn’t select Bowman either Swing Lowe, in your seat predictions …
John Howard is Mr Recession, he gave us the biggest recession since the great depression.
It’s victors justice AM just like at Nuremberg, the Tory leadership has faced the drop and they’ve copping it one by one, better to get it out of the way now so that we can get on with rebuilding.
Abbott is a lock for Manager of Opposition Business.
Turnbull if he is to be a successful leader needs time to build personal support, build more politicl skills and hone his rhetoric. At the moment he is totally green and most of the Labor front bench would cream him. He is desireable because he is much moderate and thus palatable to the Australian public – but his time is not now.
Keating sort of supported Julie Bishop.
Swing Lowe @ 364,
Maybe, maybe not re Nelson.
In the end Nelson may be the compromise candidate. Apparently, he is popular with back benchers.
He could be the Jim Hacker of Australian politics.
yes, kina, but keating was surely having a laff.
PS I want Ruddock/ Andrews. aka ‘the Dead Pedant Society’
Matthew Sykes,
The way the count is going, that’s probably a good thing…
Lefty E @ 337
Thats right, YR@W campaigned in Deakin and Corangamite, and also McMillan and Latrobe, another 2 ’safe’ coalition seats on the cusp of falling – if not before this poll is declared then at the next election, following the Rudd Labor government being seen to act on its commitment to repeal serf choices and re-instate workplace rights for ordinary working Australians and their families.
As one of those ordinary Ausie workers, I’m pleased that the union movement has demonstrated how ‘irrelevant’ it is – “NOT”.
Andrews/Macfarlane lol
Still sounds better than
Crean/Macklin lol
384 [Abbott is a lock for Manager of Opposition Business]
That’s the sort of thinking that the Liberal Party needs to keep itself in opposition for the next twenty years. Howard has sapped the Liberal Party of any concept of renewal.
If the right have swung behind Abbott then he will be leader. Turnbull just won’t get the numbers from the wets.
bull butter
Barry, and thats a good sign in general.
Bit of grass roots stuff is exactly what the TU movement needs.
Nah, a nothing job like Manager of Opposition Business would be ideal for Abbott.
He is pure electoral poison as leader or even deputy. It would be completely back to the future.
Glen, what are the numbers ? moderates v conservative ?
Glen,
Is the criteria of who could lead a merger with the Nationals a valid selection point for a leader? That is, if you can’t have an election winner, at least chose an internal reformer? Is there someone in the Libs who could work with Barnaby Joyce?
Otherwise, I agree with Julie Bishop for other reasons. She shores up WA, your best terrain. You also badly need to broaden the Libs appeal to women. Though a younger, smarter one would be much better. Still…
Jesus, don’t ya miss the old PJK – he was a great PM, and his language just always seems to get it right. Agree with him about Julie Bishop – the Libs should put her in, and send a signal to the world that they have changed as a party, that they are modernisers and straighteners – not narrowers.
Glen: “Crean/Macklin lol”
Ok – historic moment. I agree with Glen.
Was there ever a worse deputy than Macklin? Frigging useless. Deadweight. Oxygen depleter. I could go on.
socrates, all the young and smart women are in the ALP.
passthepopcorn
Yes that was my point
The trick for the Libs is to understand why that is so.
I don’t really understand how putting Julie Bishop in would demonstrate they’re modernisers. Just because she’s a woman? Or is it some other policy difference I’m unaware of?
I name the Member for Warringah – can’t wait to hear it.
One of the truest statements ever posted on PB?
Is there any website that splits the Libs into wet/ugly factions? Just interested in the breakdown of the remaining federal members and the alignment of those who lost their seats.
From all accounts Turnbull is not very popular within the party – perhaps the uglies will elect him leader so they can actively undermine and destroy him to get rid of him for good?
Laming is catching up in Bowman, he’s now only 55 votes behind. He is getting nearly 55% of pre-poll votes.
I know they let PJK out of his box earlier this year, but I think he is enjoying this win a bit too much. He is like a predator smelling death from a rotting carcass, and he just wants to make sure there is nothing left of it.
Mind you, I’m enjoying reading his pieces.
401 [socrates, all the young and smart women are in the ALP.]
Bet they are laughing at the liberals of having all this trouble trying to solve the case of the vanishing potential Leader and what should be done about it.
Although Julie Bishop is a bit eccentric, I personally think she’s quite a polished media performer.
I agree, if we put Julie in it would be an experiment and it would be a massive change from Howie so its a possibility.
If we go with Nelson – its for stability
If we go for Abbott – its because Heffs spent the last few days on the phone telling everyone that Julie is baron.
If we go for Malcolm – our best shot will be blown in 2010 and then where to we go from their Alex Hawke lol!
Deputy leadership
Pyne – no thank you!
Robb – zzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Andrews – no please no!
J. Bishop – if she doesnt get leader she should get this we cant afford to lose WA or we will be f’ed.
You can come up with as many potential LNP leaders as you like: they all have baggage. And, as I’ve said before “Who do you trust to lead when they have no leadership experience?” They are stuffed.
does anyone know the number of postal & absentee votes there are in Bennelong ?
The member for Mayo is warned!
The member for O’Connor will remove himself from the chamber under standing orders 4A.
ON SA matters. Kevin Foley and the SA state executive need to be flogged hard over dropping Cornes into Boothby. It was a unmitigated disaster and all the namby, pamby whinging about how hard the media was…. It’s tough for everybody. Harden the f##k up!.
Really pi##ed about this. Mia would have been in paliament if she had been given this seat. Possibly one of the worst sitting memebers to knock off and it wasn’t even close.
Cronyism at it’s worse.
Lefty E,
Totally agree. Macklin is a hack.
One of the issues for the ALP is to conduct some sort of renewal process for the next election. Old-timers and hacks like Macklin, Crean, the Fergusons, Price and Kerr should be retired and some new blood injected into those safe seats.
People like Mia Hanshin and George Williams are the sort of people Labor should have in Parliament. They shouldn’t make the same mistakes as the Coalition and allow the rust to build up on their parliamentary caucus…
What makes you think you’re not already?
412 Interesting point viggop where are the experienced leaders of the Liberal Party?
What a barren, desert their landscape is.
It doesn’t really matter. McKew leads by 2500 votes, and Howard is only getting 52% of the pre-poll votes.
Numbers are looking decent for Labor in McEwen – up by 321 votes, but postals have not been included. Hoping that the numbers hold up here (it’s always good to knock off a sitting Minister)…:-)
I heard 8,000 mentioned somewhere but don’t take that as gospel
Nelson – 11 years in Parliament 6 or more years as Minister
Bishop – 9 years in Parliament 4 years as Minister
Turnbull – 3+ years in Parliament, 2 as Minister
Glen,
No the best will be, ‘I name the Member for Wannon’, political justice for the worst Speaker in recent history.
Where have Ovaries and Shenanigan disappeared to these days…they seem to think they knew how to read the political tea leaves and predict the future. Now they are AWOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!
I’m for Julie. Gosh Pyne.
Ha Hawker without the power of the chair will hardly make a peep in Parliament i reckon.
Mia wanted Sturt because she grew up in the electorate.
The leader of the S.A. Right has personally taken the blame for running a bad campaign. He said he shoudl’ve gone more negative on Southcott’s nothing record.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22819284-5014474,00.html
Will Julie turn up in her dominatrix outfit and tell Ruddy that he has been a naughty boy? So naughtly he got the keys to the Lodge.
He’ll probably resign before the next election.
It looks like Turnbull may rise from the ashes to lead the Libs, they could do a lot worse than him! Abbot maybe?
So if its Turnball versus Abbott…
… a case of embarrassingly rich versus richly embarrassing
Or they could follow the feminist methodolgy of the ALP at state level – pop one of the ladies in to carry the can while the blokes fight out the back for the spoils.
Glen @ 426,
Hawker should resign. The Libs won’t lose the seat in a by-election and there’s gotta be better people around to sit in Parliament.
422 Yes long time there with little to show for it except people sitting around scratching their heads wondering, what now? Not my idea of inspiring leadership.
ShowsOn you can’t have it all.
ha ha, pathological logic! indeed, you’d be hard pressed to think of a more f^^^ed party.
Now that the Liberals are on the left of the chair they can’t get away with that patronising born to rule crap. They’ll actually have to come up with some new ideas that voters actually like.
I understand that, I’m not a Liberal.
Good, more new blood into Parliament for the Tories we’re gonna need it.
If Abbott is the leader ill find it hard voting for the Libs, ill do it, but i won’t like it. I don’t want Abbott as our leader.
Before entering Parliament Julie did Afternoon Talkback (usually lightweight fluff pieces) on 6PR in Perth, hence her good media skills.
ShowsOn
I am not in the Labor Party (or any other) but since there seem to be a few of us in Sturt, we must catch up some time. We seem to agree on a lot here.
Btw, does anyone find it amusing that it is looking more and more likely that Sophie Mirrabella is going to be a Shadow Minister this time around?
Coz that’s got to be the best example of the dearth of talent in the current batch of Liberals in Parliament…
Glen,
At least it’s not going to be Abbott and Costello!
Heather Ridout from the Australian Industry Group on the one hand says Peter Costello was a great economic manager, then on the other hand says the inflation genie is right out of the bottle.
Is it one or the other?
Or is she saying that inflation got out of control some time between John Howard’s concession speech, and Keven Rudd’s victory speech?
Anyone noticed that Mark Vaile resigned?
401
passthepopcorn Says:
“socrates, all the young and smart women are in the ALP.”
Spot on but it is expected given that Labor is a party of progressives.
444 – no one noticed he was ever there!
How can you tell. He never led the party anyway.
Glen
On Abbott, its not just you who won’t like it; a lot of people don’t like him. He’s too antagonistic. He is an attack dog best suited for operating from behind the safety of a (partisan) speakers chair. He won’t rebuild anything. And while not explicitley masogonistic, after his time as Health Minister, I literally don’t know a single adult female who would vote for him.
Dolly has pretty much ruled himself out, with a frankness that I actually admire: http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/26/2101511.htm
“Remember I was many, many years ago – and quite unsuccessfully – was many years ago leader of the opposition, so I’ve kind of done that,” Mr Downer told ABC Radio in Adelaide.
ShowsOn
The share market was up at midday, buoyed by mining stocks. Same cause of prosperity as before. So much for the sky falling.
Abbott would make a good temporary leader to fill in time while they reorganise but electorally he is poison. The best bet for the next election would be Turnbull as leader and Bishop as deputy. They could paint the party as renewed or at least try to.
If Abbott becomes leader of the Libs they will be spending a long time in opposition.
444 [Anyone noticed that Mark Vaile resigned?]
Know anyone under 60 who can take his place?
Vaile was last seen skateboarding into the sunset.
The Libs will sort themselves out.
Matt Price when asked on his death bed about the election said the one thing that will be replayed all the time will be PM Rudd saying the buck stops with me. he comented that that statement will be used by the media and his political rivals for eveything.
“Know anyone under 60 who can take his place?”
Aren’t they all still in Young Nationals?
I am barracking for Brendan Nelson to get the job now
rather than Abbott or Bishop who are are unelectable & would be replaced in 2009
and would be replaced by Turnbull
Abbott could stitch up the Jesuit vote.
On the other hand, I think some would find him as appealing as Latham in terms of a certain brutish quality.
This can’t be right! The unions were going to force Labor to end the mining boom by shutting every mine in the country!
Everyone must listen to Paul Keating’s assessment of the election. It will be added to this page soon:
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/
Kirribilli is again up for sale
… do not know if this is the original ad posted by someone else last last week or if this is a new one…
http://www.domain.com.au/Public/PropertyDetails.aspx?adid=2006832414
This was my prediction about 2 weeks ago and it’s very close.
Note: The labor victory was more a repudiation of Howard and his “toxic” ideals than an acceptance of Rudd.
I’ll be watching Rudd carefully, and too much me tooing with Howard and I’ll only be too happy to stick with a prgressive moderate like Turnbull.
1. According to Nostradamus LNP 61: ALP 87, IND2
Quatrain 34 – Anno Domini – 2nd Millennium
Verse 16:
In the distant southern great land
The princely serpent with wavering tongue shall rise,
The wheelwright’s son of complete ordinariness,
Will vanquish the noveau proletariat – his name : Johward
Verse 17:
For a decade and 1, he will rule unchallenged;
Subservient only to a distant King and Queen of expired empire
He will banish the wretched moor on the water to the desolate land
Denial of world heating with fear and greed he shall rule
With new tax the proletariat will feast on Pork and be happy,
Verse 18
From the rural and oriental Rudvin shall rise with Sun Tzu,
Of similar blandness with difference shall decimate Joward’s forces to 3 score + 1,
He will control the Balded one 180 degrees on weather,
His barren Princess assigned will lance Joward’s heart in Bene-Lon
Held in high esteem, Joward’s legacy tarnished thereafter
Glen, even if Abbott is given the leadership I doubt you’ll get the chance to vote for him as I doubt he’ll last that long. I’d give him 18 months and the writing will be on the wall. In fact, I think that whoever becomes leader will probably not be the one facing the next election as the polling will be disastrous for the Libs for quite some time.
The Nats have to get that gay farmer from Big Brother on if they want to be seen as a youthful party. It would of course wreck the rest of their redneck voter base.
Kim Wilkie increases lead from 44 to 53 in Swan
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-13745-247.htm
Ptobias 449
What do you expect them to do – fall on the ground and grovel, eat dirt? I mean, get real.
yes, kate ellis for PM @ 445, that’s true. i can’t think how any woman with self-respect would associate with that bunch of backward-thinking losers.
turnbull would be a good choice because he would run to win…. i understand the difficulties re 2010, but turnbull is a winner, so he would run to win…. even if he did not get there, it is the right strategy.
two terms strategies are never the right way to go
When I heard the Mad Monk announce his canidature for Liberal I was ROTFLMFAO.
Tony Abbott: “I think there are going to be some tricky problems of party management but I think I have reasonably good people skills.”
I am sure Bernie Banton will give him a good reference attesting to Tony’s people skills. Go Tony ! Leading the Liberals to a greater train wreck than Howard.
Turnbull won’t win in one or even two terms. Really, if you pay attention to him you’ll see he just doesn’t have it.
OH STOP IT!
Now the Liberals are just trying to be funny! W.A. Opposition leader Paul Omodei has endorsed Julie Bishop as leader or deputy leader!
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22822499-29277,00.html
Abbott seems to be saying “sacrifice me – save someone better for 2016″
“that bunch of backward-thinking losers” beat Labor 4 elections in a row and are now despite all the hype only three and a half percent away from taking power back one day. They may not be “losers” for ever. Labor has knocked the beast off it’s feet but it hasn’t killed it.
JULIE JULIE JULIE JULIE JULIE JULIE JULIE JULIE JULIE JULIE (chanting)
Radio Bludger…. Stereo for Pseph-Heads
Don’t think Paulie needs the bananas, Happy. Special guest appearances, as with Alexandra Kirk on ABC radio today and the occasional column in the SMH will suit him just fine, imho. Talk-back overexposure would dilute the potency of his vitriol and dull the acuity of his political hawk eye.
468 Vote1Maxine
Aprt from many other reasons, I’m glad Bernie lived long enough both to get the Hardies settlement and see Saturday night’s result. I hope he enjoyed it.
He has no chance. He will be 60 before he has a real chance, and I don’t think Australians will want to elect a 60 year old when Labor would be moving to another 45 – 50 year old.
At least Turnbull could finance the next Lib campaign all by himself
LTEP, I disagree – he is far more talented than the vast majority, if not all, of the current crop of parliamentarians on both sides…. his resume proves that.
10pse….Turnbull….Mr Rainmaker….Mr Rain-using-taxpayers-money-to-fund-one-of-my-financial-backers-Maker is a winner??? Labor and the opinion polls will batter him all over the parliamentary floor and his party will lovingly kick his bleeding carcass out the door within 18 months…..make it 12.
Marke Vaille STILL doesn’t get it. In his resignation speech he talked about how there is no public debt, but he failed to mention people live on credit more now than ever.
No wonder his mob lost.
470 [W.A. Opposition leader Paul Omodei has endorsed Julie Bishop as leader or deputy leader!]
Isn’t he the man who specialises in seeing the Liberals falling into self – made ditches? How is his 3000 kilometer ditch going? Did it ever get off the ground?
he would be 56 next time not 60, and would be 59 in 2013… not 60. And Rudd would be 56… so three years difference only…. unless you are suggesting Rudd will hand over (forget that) or be rolled after winning the next election (laugable)
It needs to be some one not associated with JWH. Petro Georgiou and Peter Dutton.
415
I completely agree paladin. Mia would have easily won Boothby. It baggers belief that state Labor would pick Nicole as an ALP candidate who admitted to have voted for Howard at the last election!
Speaking of finance, I don’t mean to sink the boot in to Glen or others on line today but, are the Libs broke? There were rumours about their State level finances in Qld even before the campaign. I understand debts lingering from that State campaign were the motive for the alleged printing expense rort involving Laming and others. Now they have just run an expensive campaign, lost, and have few tax payer funded office to hide in. Where do they get cash from now?
I know they are great economic managers but, can they manage their own fiannces?
LTEP you must be PLEASED that your side LOST THE ELECTION
The postal votes will do Wilkie in, unfortunately.
Shows on says
“Everyone must listen to Paul Keating’s assessment of the election. It will be added to this page soon:”
His interview on news radio today was brilliant.
I think the ALP should put him on a retainer to pop-up every so often and continue the revision of the Howard years.
Have you ever talked to a regular person who has been impressed by Malcolm Turnbull? He is a Kim Beazley… too much talk and all woffle. Just wait and see though…
I know plenty of people that were originally impressed by Turnbull… but the more they see of him the less they like.
Julie Bishop
That look of deranged earnestness would unsettle even the good folk out at hillsong. God knows what it would do to the australian electorate. I swear those eyes are revolving!
She’s utterly hopeless. The performance in parliament when she tried to ape the smirk (’you naught boy, you naughty boy’) was the most cringeworthy moment in aust politics that i’d seen since Alexander Downer as leader pouted at Keating across the dispatch box. Her ‘look at me Mr Howard’ attempts to get the cultural wars going in relation to the education curriculum smacked of the actions of a brainless ideologue on the make (remember the maoist line).
Surely the lib gene pool isn’t this shallow….. Maybe it is. If they’re gonna consider Julie then in the interests of fairness, they really should consider Bronwyn Bishop.
Hot diggetty dog, Glen. You are such a TOTAL fan.
Nice kid, Julie, but there’s that “intensity problem” thing. She needs to get it worked on.
485
Socrates – it does help having the Unions give the ALP millions of dollars, we have to fend for ourselves, it will be tough especially since we’re in Opposition. Thankfully we have Malcolm Mr Moneybags.
The thing about Turnbull is that he is exceptionally bright, and importantly is actually a policy thinker – the Libs will need to carve out an agenda, and he is well suited to that task
high farce when tony abbott is saying he’s got good people skills.
paul k, they’re going to need a mega defibrillator to get that beast back up on its feet. they’ll need to get one custom-made, and it’ll take a good 4 terms before it’s available.
Yes Glen, it is hard when you only have Multi-Millionaires and Billionaires to support you.
hahahahahahh Tim Fischer can’t bring himself to endorse either Peter Maguaran or Warren Truss.
Yeah but they are scrooges paul k cmon. You get more money from the Unions than we do from the wealthy.
494
passthepopcorn – correction he said he had ‘reasonable’ people skills (that’s bullsh&t)
LTEP
I don’t think Turnbull is that bad but yes, a lot of people from the Corporate world are less impressive up close than their PR people claim.
That is why I thought it was a pitty in the long term that the Libs lost Brough. He had flaws, and probably badly needs to improve his understanding of social issues. Still, to me he had integrity and ideas and hence potential as a long term leader. Most of the rest seemed to be just followers.
Turnball isn’t likely to get the support of the dominant (neocon) faction. He has seriously pissed them off. He could, however, just buy the Liberal Party and appoint himself leader for life. I’m told they need the cash.
481
What’s wrong with “ditches?”
I’m planning to get one dug from Port Augusta to Lake Ayre.
Why????
hey, on the aec tally site, does the total number of polling booths include postals
Brendan Nelson is officially in according to the Tele
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22822501-5001021,00.html
passthepopcorn,
Sometimes I think you guys learnt nothing in 11 years of Opposition. Just look at the history of both parties when defeated in landslides. The Libs will be competitive within two elections if they can get the right leader. The Labor side are sounding more and more like the Libs did when Fraser first beat Gough. All thinking Fraser would be PM for ever. Also if I had a dollar for every time I’d heard the Libs were finished for good when Hawke became PM I’d be a very wealthy man. I repeat despite the hype you are only three and a half percent away from defeat on TPP.
Paul K
Live in the now. Just enjoy watching the Libs bicker and destroy each other and be happy.
paul k 503
to be fair Libs were in the wilderness for 13 years. that is an eternity in politics as is 11 years. and if you are saying the political wheel will turn again…der
I don’t think so. That’s seperate.