That lucid analysis I promised two posts ago will still have to wait another day. In the meantime, I have added a new “photo finish” thread below for Dickson, where Labor’s lead is an uncomfortable 389 votes, to those already existing for Swan, Solomon, McEwen, Macarthur, La Trobe, Herbert, Bowman and the Victorian Senate. It would also be remiss of me not to note the very sad passing of Matt Price, taken far too young at 46.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
1,367 Comments
Here’s the eternal diplomat, Jeff Kennett, offering a few kind words of consolation to old pal Peter Costello:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/costello-shows-his-lack-of-mettle/2007/11/25/1195975866027.html
Hilarious.
Whilst it’s entirely off-topic, may I add that Kennett’s mo on election night looked appallingly Hitler-esque. He should be taken to a barber’s union somewhere, to have it shaved off.
Vale Matt Price, sadly missed.
Idle curiosity question
Norfolk Island residents
I can’t find a booth on norfolk in the results. Are they all postal votes or something?
Alan Ramsey provides an interesting analysis of the future for the liberal party here
But why didn’t he write like that a few years ago?
Divisive leader who squandered Australia’s hopes – Paul Keating article in SMH
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/divisive-leader-who-squandered-australias-hopes/2007/11/25/1195975870462.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
You know all things said I felt sorry for Howard on Saturday night. Why didn’t the silly old bugger go out gracefully. I felt empathy rather than jubilation at getting the icing on the cake. What an insult to lose your own seat!
I am glad Turnbull has put his hand up. You need a credible opposition and new leadership with fresh ideas.
An Honest Mistake – yeah, right.
The SMH letters page includes this pearler of a paragraph.
Mantras about “children overboard”, “never, ever GST” and other concoctions became such a feature of reporting that even the most knowledgeable voter would have concluded these were Machiavellian actions by Howard aimed at manipulating a naive electorate. The anti-Howard lobby would never allow the PM the benefit of an honest misunderstanding about children overboard, and that an election over GST was about the most honourable thing he could have done to ensure he had a mandate to introduce it.
An honest misinderstanding? Spin the onther one.
Link here
Matt Price was an inspiring journalist in a field of uninspiring hacks. He was equally good in print, television and radio. His lack of involvement in this election was a huge void. I will miss him and his obituary on the Australian site this morning, where his blog used to be headlined, made me very sad this morning.
centaur, for the way that Howard played with and divided Australia, I can’t say I’m not glad to see him gone with the extra humiliation and repudiation of losing his seat. He can take Tampa, Siev-X and his beloved dog-whistle with him.
Rates Analyst – that letter is hilarious. It seems that the Liberals have a few Kroger types in the field still prepared to call black ‘white’ in a desire to continue their culture wars (with all that they have come to entail). Unfortunately they no longer have the high-ground, will be inreasingly isolated, and publicly embarrassed by the flawed logic they hold so dear.
RA
That is a fantastic letter.
I suppose the invasion of Iraq was just an honest misunderstanding too? You know, troops were bored sitting at home and we sent them out for a walk and waddyaknow, they wandered into a battle….
A lecture from Jeff Kennett on “character.” How truly sick-making. I’m glad to see the back of Howard and Costello, but there has been no more truly detestable person, both politically and personally, in Australian politics in my lifetime, not even Joh Bjelke-Petersen, not even John Kerr, than Jeff Kennett. When oh when will he just shut up and go away?
Having lied about his intentions regarding a GST, taking the policy to the electorate in 98 was about as reasonable as he could have been.
But to me “Machiavellian actions by Howard aimed at manipulating a naive electorate” seems an almost perfect description.
I note that not even the letter-writer can defend AWB.
Happy Revolutionary @ 1:
Jeff Kennett’s mo is for Movember, raising money for mens’ health.
http://www.movember.com/au/whatismov/07/What-is-Movember/?=adwords
re Matt Price – his passing is desperately sad. An entertaining, informed and informative writer – a solo act in Australian journalism.
Kennett was on Newsradio this morning making an a$$ of himself.
He spent the entire time pretty much refusing to answer any questions.
Indeed, Adam, that was my reaction.
Jeff Kennett lecturing about the necessity of “compassionate leadership.”
Utterly nauseating.
Here’s an image to cut and keep, as brought to us by the Daily Telegraph:
http://www.news.com.au/common/imagedata/0,,5768685,00.jpg
I must be honest I thought JWH handled it well, a couple of vague things about better and stronger, but I was impressed. Rudd too. But those idiots who ran around starting the greatest pm / treasurer team in the universe stuff …. it is nasty but someone on our side needs to be minister for making sure these lies don’t stick. Perhaps Stephen Smith could have a portfolio including the portfolio for making sure lies like that get torpedoed.
Perhaps they should fun a dedicated ‘The Wasted Years’ channel for the ABC to run 24 hours a day.
THR @ 1
“even though the Government had overseen the 11 best economic years since white settlement”
Is Kennett implying that the indigenous custodians of our land where/are better economic managers?
A few have already joined the dots between the Lindsay pamphlet and the narrow defeat of Howard in Bennelong. If the ALP get wins in McEwen and Latrobe I think you could conclude Jackie Kelly got them over the line there.
Any other seats?
The Lindsay pamphlet was not an isolated incident. It was the last in a long line of attempts to stir up fear of the ALP by aligning them with people’s prejudices.
The only difference between something like the capricious treatment of Haneef and the Lindsay pamphlet was the level of incompetence shown.
Its not a question of whether it was “officially” sanctioned by the Liberal Party. It was the Liberal party.
I’m pleased to see the moderates in the Party are finally starting to act.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/factions-turn-inwards-as-middle-ground-lost/2007/11/25/1195975870423.html
I would love to see Mal Brough given a job as he is now unemployed and unelectable in Queensland. Given his background can I suggest that he be now given the plum job of Ambassador to Iraq.
Goodbye to Matt Price – what a bloody awful loss. Matt was smart, funny, insightful, professional and humane. He always played witrh a straight bat and I always admired him for that. Warmest wishes to Sue and the kids. It’s always hard to find a good man in politics and journalism – it just got a whole lot harder. I’ll miss you Matt.
On another matter, ABC radio in Melbourne is suggesting Clare Martin will resign as NT Chief Minister today, possibly to play a role in the new federal government.
BV @ 16
There is not going to be any mercy for Howard. It has to be the most malevolent photo I have ever seen of a public figure.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/opinion/animations/0,25199,19,00.html
nicholson made laugh all through the campaign..
Steve (20)
I think the “the plum job of Ambassador to Iraq” should be offered to John Howard. After all he was partly responsible for ‘liberating’ them and bringing them ‘democracy’. I am sure the relatives of 600,000 dead and 2 million refugees will welcome him with open arms.
Now Pete the Dud has committed political ??, does this open the way for Bro. Tim to throw his hat in the ring?
And if he does which party does he join?
Heard Andrew Robb on RN Breakfast this morning. He talked about numerous issues that brought the Coalition down – Howard’s staying too long, the “it’s time” factor – but he avoided mentioning even once the main and biggest issue the party had – WorkChoices.
If the Liberals are not eyes wide open to that piece of electoral poison, long may they wallow in the pooh of Opposition.
The new leader and shadow frontbench (whoever they turn out to be) need to completely and very publicly disassociate themselves from the hard right position on IR if they are to become viable again as an electable federal entity.
Now Pete the Dud has committed political oibara, does this open the way for Bro. Tim to throw his hat in the ring?
And if he does which party does he join?
Polls (mostly) got it right.
The following compares the final polls with the TPP as of Sumday (53.3%). “N” is the number sampled. “Lower” is the lower limit of the 95% confidence band for that pollster, “Upper” is the upper 95%CL. Error is the amount by which the poll differed from the actual result
TPP N 95%CL Lower Upper Error
Morgan f2f 56.5 900 3.1 53.4 59.6 -3.2
Morgan phone 53.5 2115 2.1 51.4 55.6 -0.2
Galaxy 52 1200 2.8 49.2 54.8 1.3
Newspoll 52 2614 1.9 50.1 53.9 1.3
AGBN 57 1400 2.6 54.4 59.6 -3.7
Average 53.6 8229 1.2 52.4 54.8 -0.3
Morgan phone was closest, the all-poll average next. The Morgan f2f was just outside the 95% CL (but 10 days old), the AGBN was well outside it.
The weighted mean TPP projection from all specific electorate polling was 53.7%, very clearly a good estimate and something to remember for next time.The MimeMSN Passion Poll mid-way through the campaign predicted 53.6%- but this might have been more arse than class.
All except AGBN picked up the swing in the middle of the week. The trend line built from all polls during the campaign showed a likely TPP of 55.1%, the true TPP was outside the likely error range for a linear projection, a clear indication of a last minute acceleration of mood.
If a last-minute swing really did occur, the Pre-poll and Postal votes, which would have been cast before any swing set in, may show it and pull the final TPP up a little.
Adam @ 11
I was no Kennett fan but I must say this for him. When Pauline Hanson was first elected and making headlines, JWH looked like a bunny caught in the headlights. He didn’t know how to respond to her. This was when I started to become seriously dejected about him being our PM, after the guns buy-back and Timor triumphs. Kennett had no hesitation in denouncing her, in his usual blunt way, as stupid and dangerous. Unlike Howard he didn’t worry about what racist/redneck conservative voter he might alienate. For this I’ve always felt a degree of gratitude towards him – oh, and the Beyond Blue involvement is also something he deserves recognition for.
It is obvious that the Iraq Ambassador job should go to the former Foreign Minsiter, Downer. Wouldn’t the Yanks get a kick outta seeing him do that fishnet stockings number in the troops canteen.
Kennett’s comments must be seen through the prism of Victorian Liberal factional politics. The two factions are the “Kennett” faction and the “Costello” faction and they hate each other, as do the two men who give the factions their names.
This hatred is all the more intense because their differences are based on personality not ideology.
I’d be very interested to know whether Morgan used different sampling techniques or weighting for their final polls.
Rx @ 27,
Let’s hope they’re not listening, so they can wallow a good deal longer.
Geoff @ 29,
what’s AGBN?
The Iraq Ambassador job should go to Kevin Andrews.
Jude #30
Fair points about Kennett. I had forgotten his prompt and clear repudiation of Hansonism. And his BeyondBlue work is commendable.
He deserves credit for those things.
You’ve left AC Nielsen out of your table.
I would also like to know how far out they were on primaries too. I think Galaxy had them level on primaries when they 2.5 apart.
Geoff @ 29, what’s AGBN?
My long-term abbreviation for what has been Nielsen in recent times, but was AGB McNair some years ago.
Maybe he was feeling sad for the people in detintion centres, the drowned SIEV X people, for letting Hicks rot for 5 years, for the torture of Habib, the gaoling and political persecution of Haneef, for AWB….nahhh…as usual he would be feeling sorry for himself.
The deeds of the Howard government do need to be exposed, not as revenge but as a warning and lesson to the public and the press.
Note, there are lots of wheelie bins in the ministerial wing of parliament house today. Seriously…
Geoff Lambert @29
Geoff, I’m not trying to dispute your conclusions, but I simply find it hard to understand how the final Newspoll 52% is “mostly” right. I have a math background, but not stats.
Newspoll chief was on Skyness this morning smugly bragging about their primary vote prediction, and then saying his combined last two 2PP’s nailed it. Sorry, but that’s not just not the reality of how significantly lower 52% was to the final outcome. We’ll never know how much those final Galaxy and Newpoll 52% impacted on the voters after the media played them up hugely all Friday and Saturday.
Newspoll chief’s other big boast was about picking up 8% swing in QLD, and he said the Rudd swing is not a landslide.
LETP, Ramsay in the Saturday SMH had this hilarious and enormously telling detail of hundreds of wheelie bins in the PH carpark BEFORE the election. Perhaps the presence and number of bins could be a predictive indicator for future elections. Binwatch?
Also, forgot to ask Geoff Lambert. Why are you avoid using the term “narrowing” rather than “last minute acceleration of mood”? Or have I just completely missed your meaning there?
Rates Analyst @4
That has been Ramsey’s take on Howard for years, and one of the the very few journalists to express his contempt for the rodent publicly and vociferously. You can’t mark down Ramsey on that score!
I think this is the best, most succinct summary:
As for this last election, the one that kills Howard off politically, along with the nastiest, meanest, most miserable, self-absorbed Commonwealth government to blight Australia in living memory, Rudd out-campaigned him, with discipline and immense energy, like Howard has never previously been thrashed in his 33 years in political life
Wooohoooo! In a nutshell!
Now we are at the stage when the AEC data files is missing information.
The AEC has recorded the polling postal vote statistics (The file has not been updated since Nov 20.)
Postal votes and prepoll votes where stopped being issued before the election. (Surely they have this data by now)
Missing from the AEC polling place returns and data files is the number of prepoll votes issued. The total number of absentee and provisional votes issued.
There is no reason why a summary of this information can not be provided. (Certainly before the final counts begin later today. All this information is available and is included in the polling place/divisional office returns.
http://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/federal_elections/2007/data_extracts/
Sum of AEC and Parties AEC Other Liberal Labor Country Libs National Greens Democrat Total Postal Votes to Date (Incl. GPV)
ACT 8250 4083 3 3019 1135 - 10 - - 10825
NSW 165334 50096 1450 46859 54573 19 12337 - - 226859
NT 2293 1297 5 21 353 613 4 - - 4078
QLD 128120 42949 720 33688 34815 11 15937 - - 164988
SA 43689 17268 28 16070 10308 5 10 - - 54389
TAS 15092 7976 14 4006 3080 1 15 - - 17396
VIC 187635 56116 919 78053 48536 7 4004 - - 227358
WA 38941 20031 1267 13492 4050 6 95 - - 55199
National Total 589354 199816 4406 195208 156850 662 32412 - - 761092
No, the Ambassodor to Iraq can wait until Ruddock retires! Send him, nothing to lose as he is already dead!
To put up Turnbull now would be only to burn him off too soon.
They need to burn some losers first so they will recognise the need for a Turnbull and so will support him. Turnbull really needs to learn some political skills and speaking skills. He just waffles too much rubbish.
The polls in the next few months will probably indicate the LNP at its lowest and maybe reveal what their real base support is. Will be interesting to see the level of rusted on regardless supporters the Liberal party has.
Geoff L said:
“The weighted mean TPP projection from all specific electorate polling was 53.7%, very clearly a good estimate and something to remember for next time.”
Good summary. I still think we’ll stress over individual polls
The Greens in Victoria are looking more and more of losing again.
With Labor securing three quotas in their own right their only hope is a unlikely swing in postal and absentee votes. The postal votes stats indicate that 33% of postal vote application are unknown.. Of that the greens can expect at best 15%. Problem is that the Liberal Party (The party they have to beat) have the lions share of the postals.. Labors surplus is insufficient to deliver the greens the number of votes they require.
As predicted the Liberals do now find themselves in the equivalent of the “post-Thatcher” leadership vacuum. Like most people, I can’t have any sympathy for Howard, who was as ruthless a user of power as any on the national stage in my life time.
I can only see some hope for the Liberals if they cut deep now and try to reposition themselves. Otherwise its Kevin 2020.
I can see some issues that will challenge Rudd and Labor, although I am impressed by the energy he has already shown.
Climate change will be one of the biggest for him now. Signign Kyoto is one thing. Managing the economy in a world trying to reduce teh burnign of ocal will be another, and that will hurt in Queensland. For the record, I am a sceptic on clean coal. Nobody has got it to work yet. On the plus side, WA’s gas reserves will rise in value with emission trading.
Kina, I’d like to see Turnbull leading. He is someone who presumably would push Labor, or at least offer bipartisan support, on climate and environment, as well as multiculturalism and other social issues. And the republic question.
Hemingway: Its called consolidation, Voters realize that the minor parties will not deliver the required outcome.
Melbcity,
Do you think that there was increased level of “consolidation” from last two elections or not?
Hi all. I’m a longtime, avid lurker here; but as I can now safely avoid this site for a while and get my life and productivity back, I want to share a moment from election night before I go.
I was at the party for Labor volunteers in the seat of Melbourne, having decided to attend only after receiving Antony Green’s assurances on TV that we were likely to win. The wife and I had sprung up, called a taxi, commandeered the Indian driver’s car radio to keep up with results, and arrived at the Collingwood Town Hall just as the ABC’s seat counter ticked over to ALP: 76.
Among the crowd of party workers there were a group of Sudanese guys, part of the large African community in the electorate. I don’t know if they had been involved in the campaign, or invited to the party as guests. In any case, when local member Lindsay Tanner made his victory speech in due course, he included the following (as well as I can remember his words): “No matter whether you’re Sudanese-Australian, Ethiopian-Australian, Greek-Australian or whatever; in any government I’m a part of, you will always be welcome”.
Huge cheer from the assembled crowd, much rejoicing from the Sudanese guys, and a warm feeling of inclusion with many a tear to the eye. It was a great moment.
I also spoke next day to my Sudanese friends (who had fled Sudan as political refugees) who had recently gained citizenship and had voted for the first time – not just in an Australian election, but ever. They were excited that their first election as voters was such a significant one, as my first in 1983 had been. It’s humbling to realise how much you can take your vote for granted, living in Australia.
It was a great weekend.
I would like to extend my congratulations to Mr. Rudd and the Labor party for winning this years general election.
To all the Labor supporters on this Blog congratulaions.
May Kevin be a great Prime Minister.
Oh and may the Liberal party come back renewed and refreshed ready to take on the challenges of the future.
Good on you John. Cheers. Your contributions have been interesting to read.
I can’t believe that freak Abbott is going to run…Mayby they will let him have it for abit just to punish him for his role in their demise
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22820416-5001021,00.html
Hear Hear.
A Gentlemen of Melbourne too, it seems.
Well spoken John. Thanks. I think you are heading for ‘interesting’ times on your side. It won’t be dull.
kudos John
just heard on ABC ( i think correctly) that Abbott is in the race?
Sky confirms Abbot’s in the race
It’s hard to be humble when your side loses big time. Well done John.
I hope the people in the Liberal party get rid of the right wing nutters that control it. Especially the NSW Branch. Otherwise they will be in opposition for a long time.
Kevin Rudd will be a good PM. He will surprise many people. I hope our great country can now move forward and we can leave a lot of the fear,divisiveness, and class wars behind.
Thanks Pancho.
I think Costello did the right thing declaring that he won’t contest the Leadership. I would still like to see him as PM as I think he would be a great PM. I’m dark on JWH and the Liberal party for not going for generational change, they only have themselves to blame. In my opinion the Liberal party owes costello not Costello the Libeeral party!
Chris Pyne on Adelaide local radio bleating about the media not being their friend over the six weeks of the campaign.
Alternatively.
Many tributes being made in respect of Matt Price, a wonderful and ever promising journalist.
Vale, Matt.
I hope Abbott wins. It would be an entertaining interval in the Liberal leadership until the Real Leader (Turnbull?) comes along.
The new Govt will absolutely be jumping for joy if Abbott wins. !
John of Melbourne,
A most gracious comment. As one of the Labor supporters here, it is greatly appreciated. I sincerely hope that the Liberal Party returns to values that Fraser and many others espoused in many important policy areas.
We need a strong opposition to reduce the new government’s chances of letting too many easy election victories turn them in the direction of the woeful Carr/Iemma regimes.
All the best, mate.
Thanks all
Even though I am a Liberal supporter and I think JWH did good things for Australia. I think that no one associated with JWH’s government should be in a Leadership role at the moment.
We need new faces and time for people to disassociate Liberal members form the past regime.
At least you know where you stand with Abbott…
RE: Abbott getting up. Gillard, Plibersick (?sp), Wong and evry other female Labor MP will be hoping and praying. He can’t handle women. They know, he knows it and what’s more female voters know it.
Abbott will be Gillard’s plaything.
Sounds like Pyne is desperately trying to take over Downer’s role as chief Liberal party whinger. Lord knows, he qualified enough…
Petro Georgiou for Liberal leader!
John @ 74: That would be a great start if they did. !
A couple of unlikely winners from the election were:
1. The much maligned Gary Morgan, whose last phone poll was spot on.
2. Malcolm Mackerras, whose long range forecast was somewhat disparaged but proved largely correct in terms of the Labor majority and the defeat of John Howard.
A large slice of humble pie for me, who, as a life member of the pessimists club, consistently but erroneously foretold a win of two seats either way.
Go Abbott!!
56 JoM. Thanks to you for that. Mr Squiggle, and Stephen, also showed similar integrity and generosity of spirit. Full credit to you (and any other coalition suporters here who also did likewise).
I too wish for the (new) opposition to regroup, reform (very important), and become a strong force again. Democracy only works with a healthy contest and genuine choice. Might take them a while, though.
••••••••••••
And, for what little difference it makes, this is my last post. The rest of my life is suffering from serious neglect, and I also need a long break from this stuff, about 2.5 years, I reckon.
Thanks to William, and the participants in this community. This was my first online election, it has been a great experience and I have learned an awful lot. Hope you all have too.
Ciao.
RE Leadership. Wouldn’t it be fun if Downer got up
I think it’s highly disturbing for the Lib side if him, Abbott and Robb are being considered.
paladin @ 72
{RE: Abbott getting up. Gillard, Plibersick (?sp), Wong and evry other female Labor MP will be hoping and praying. He can’t handle women. They know, he knows it and what’s more female voters know it.}
Too right. You can add Roxon to that list.
Just me @ 78. Me Too. Is there a strategy for being weened of this intellectual crystal meth? Is there any subsidies avauilable via Medicare
55 Melbourne Resident
Well said. What it’s all about really.
Agree re productivity loss. Back to 12 hr days for a while.
Now now now, yes yes yes, now now …
Abbott would be a joke
Yer sure thing ’stuart’ @ 71, you forgot to put in ‘love him or loath him’ as well. We all no where Pauline Hanson stands too. BTW Hanson appears to to have fallen over the 4% line which qualifies her for public funding, about $160K, not bad for a couple of months work.
First thing for the Liberals is to wina state election.
Does anyone know which is the next state to have elections?
22 Confirmed that Clare Martin and Deputy have resigned
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/clare-martin-and-deputy-quit/2007/11/26/1195975915525.html
The truth
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22820883-5007146,00.html
John of Melbourne, congratulations on being so well mannered and good-spirited, even in defeat.
Let’s hope that public life and discourse can proceed on this basis.
Bye, Just Me. I think we all know exactly what you mean!
Robb! Terrific choice!
Yep, let’s have the very guy who 24 hours after the exposure of Lindsay pamphlet Liberal thugs, claimed on Lateline that the Party had strongly dealt with them, BUT he could not name them because he never asked who they were.
Tony Jones was gobsmacked, and Albanese just rode it for all it was worth.
Not to mention, that the last word that springs to mind when thinking of Robb and Downer is “fresh”. They would smell like rotting fish to the electorate.
Petro Georgiou -I’ll second that!!
And maybe someone could persuade Bruce Baird to change his mind……with either of these two at the helm I may vote for the Liberals again.
56 John of Melbourne – Thanks John – as opposed to some conservative supporters on this blog you have made a positive contribution and your good wishes are much appreciated.
JoM @ 87, fascinating ain’t it? It’s also ultimately revenge against Howard, as Costello’s decision potentially leaves the party in greater ruin than if there’d been an orderly succession. The worse condition the Liberal party is in, the longer their recovery period, the more tattered will Howard’s legacy seem. Howard may love the Liberal party for the rest of his days but it’s unlikely to be reciprocated.
I can see valid reasons for Costello’s decision, but I think it’s hard to avoid concluding that he expected to be handed the leadership of the government on a platter. Leadership of the opposition wasn’t good enough.
I propose Ruddock as Leader and Andrews as his deputy.
JoM @ 65
I know there is a general inclination of many to call Costello gutless but I think it takes a lot for someone to look an unpleasant message in the face and accept that they are a part of the problem, not the solution.
He (unlike abbott) can see that the Liberal party needs a clean separation between the howard years and what is to come. So kudos for putting ones ego to one side and doing the right thing by his team.
Maybe he would have been a good prime minister, I don’t know. I just feel that yesterday was the first time we have seen humility from Costello, an attribute that a prime minister needs in spades, and an attribute that howard lost.
Either way the liberal party needs more moderates and Costello may have been a smarmy git, but he wasn’t a complete bastard. Let’s hope his “mentoring” has a positive effect on the attitudes of the parliamentary Liberal party.
Bruce Baird stripped off his charm mask during the last week of the campaign and was very rude to Penny Wong in a Skynews joint interview with Helen Dally.
Baird hogged the time with waffle and scaremongering, then kept trying to interrupt Wong.
Fortunately, Wong just ignored him and kept going with positive points, so Baird became agitated to the point of bright redness in his neck and face.
It truly looked like Baird was going to have a stroke.
The AEC may have chosen wrong TPP in Melbourne. The Greens look like they will top the liberals but its only academic as the ALP has over 50% of the primary… But a marginal 2PP percentage either way
So by my count the Liberal Party has 14 members (and 11 Senators) with previous experience of opposition but with that number including Ruddock, Downer and Costello there may yet be a further drop.
If Ruddock resigns (and Howard stays down
, Tuckey will become Father of the House, no?
Slackboy,
At least Costello was for a Republic, which probably added motivation to Howard’s determination to shaft him.
The feeling at my union today is incredible. Everyone is buoyed and hopeful.
Happiest.Monday.Evar!
Hemingway Says: Quotable Quotes thread at 835.
November 26th, 2007 at 8:22 am
“Fat chance. Fraser’s landslide was all about the economy, stupid. Just as Hawke’s landslide and then Howard’s would be.
Kerr and Fraser split this country into such entrenched divisions that Fraser was unwilling to be as economically conservative as Howard (first elected in Bennelong during the Sneddon election) and other right-wingers wanted to go.
Howard’s humiliation is the final chapter in the saga of The Dismissal”.
Hemingway, yours is a most astute observation. I felt there was something else, though couldn’t finger it. But you are dead right. May I suggest you send it to the Age, apropos Paul Keating’s article in today’s Age, ‘The Liberals must purge the reactionaries’ November 26, 2007
Second yours and others to John of Melbourne, this thread.
John.
I’ll go Petro!
It’ll never happen though – But from all the election results on Saturday night, there can be no greater rejection of the Howard agenda than the fact that Georgio recorded absolutely 0% swing against him.
JoM – fair play to you and congrats on the quality of your posting here in the face of concerted majority opposition.
Some of you will remember I was running a “seats that will change” prediction contest a few weeks back, where specific seats needed to be nominated. The winner is yet to be determined, depending on the undecided results. However it would appear that BenC or SwingLowe will be the likely winners. Special mention to Ruawake who was the only one to mention Dawson as a Labor gain !!
Crikey Whitey @ 101
Thanks, mate. I might do that.
I think the liberal party loss is solely due to Howard hanging on for so long. He should have handed over te reigns of power long ago. He has only himself to blame.
Re Costello why would you take on the leadership of a losing party and do a Snedden. Chances are you will lose the next election. By the time Costello has a real chance to win he will be seen as the duck that could not fly. Problem is that on hearing Downer this morning on ABC radio he is pitching the line that he is the elder statesman and has experience as opposition leader, If the Liberal appoint Alex as their no one then the Liberals will undergo a serious demoralisation. Its already happening as the factions in the Liberal Party are bitching as we speak/write/
Whats clear is that Labor is pitching for the middle ground and it is unlikely they will falter come the next election (We should have four-year terms).
I would not expect much significant change in the way Australia operates BUT it will be a bit of fresh air and a sense of revival.
I suspect a Nelson and Bishop (Julie) will become the leader for the libs with Turnbull taking over Nelson in a few years. Just pure speculation but that seems to be the best possible course of action for them. If Abbott or any of the others take over, I believe that the Libs would self destruct even more and force themselves into exile for an even longer period.
Well I said last week that it was all over bar the bitter recriminations, and we are clearly into that phase.
Given JOM’s gracious statement, to be constructive in return, I agree you must elect someone as leader who was not closely connected to Howard. Otherwise they are just a liability. So Abbott, Andrews and Ruddock are non starters IMO.
Greens polled highest in the State in Mayo, caller says.
Still speculating on radio about possibility Downer hinted at earlier, that he may go.
Clare Martin has resigned.
Would Downer ever put the (tacit) proposition “appoint me leader or I’ll resign from the parliament”? That’s the sounds he seems to be putting forward.
While Petro is the last bastion of lower-l liberals, he is no leader. He nearly sent the Kooyong branch broke without fundraising. He just might take on some front bench of the opposition. Given that the battle looks to be Turnbull and Abbott, I don’t think there is room for a third.
is it possible pete the meek is being strategic in not running for lib leader at this stage? given aussie elector’s propensity to give new governments a second term perhaps he could have a tilt at the leadership when the then lib leader resigns after rudd’s first re-election. “he’s coming back!”. get him some braces.
well amused by the enthusiam for abbott as leader in this blog. i think his tenure would be filarious. mind you he’s got about as much chance of that as he has of getting to heaven.
Who thinks Abbott will turn up on time to the leadership ballot?
st admit I’m a little dissapointed that Peter Costello wont be taking up the Liberal leadership. I was entertaining the delightful irony of a Abbott and Costello.
Wouldn’t Turnbull and Abbott simply be almost a vote on how the Libs see their future?
I’d be massively concerned (if i was a lib voter) if Abbott was elected – unless the purpose was to have him as a ‘caretaker’ leader to give the Libs some guff after a tough loss, and then to shaft him 18 months from the election.
Although, i can’t see abbott taking the job as a ‘caretaker’…..
Shoul read: I must admit…
Matthew Sykes @ 104,
Yay! This gets better and better… Do I win a prize
John of Melbourne, as others have already said, thanks for your comments in regards to the Labor’s victory. As with others, I do wish the Liberals well in rebuilding as only with a strong opposition can governments be held accountable.
Can’t imagine Downer would have, or even believe himself to have, the internal fortitude to pull the Libs together. He needs to pull himself together first. He seems to have been on the brink of hysteria most of the year. 11 years as Foreign Minister would be a particularly hard act to follow. I reckon he’ll be leaving soon.
I’ve heard Abbot has majority support in the party. Please let it be true.
Calm down Sing Lowe, you haven’t won yet
You’ve done well in your predictions, the only one you’ve got wrong so far is your prediction of a Labor win in Stirling.
As for a prize … I can blow you a kiss if you like !! Or if you’re ever in Adelaide, I’ll shout you a beer.
Yo ho ho @ 116 – That is what is needed. A vote for Turnbull is a vote for lower-l liberals. Abbott would be slaughtered by the front bench full of female ministers, and would probably turn women away from the Liberals.
Abbott is also too close to the policies of the past, including WorkChoices. If he gets up he will try to block the ALP’s new IR policy, which seems that the ALP is going to get businesses and the unions to have a say in. Blocking the IR policy only make people cement their ideas about IR. It’s time for the Liberals to be progressive.
Still, I think Turnbull is not experienced enough, and Abbott is too close to the past. What the party does is up to them, but navel gazing shouldn’t be one of them.
LTEP,
Yesterday the story was that Nelson had the majority support of the party. What I’m guessing is that the leaks saying this sort of stuff are from members of the anti-Turnbull camp in the Liberal party, who seem to be doing anything to stop Turnbull from becoming Opposition Leader.
P.S. Let me take the time to thank JoM for his gracious comments and his valuable commentary on this site. Without people like him, this blog would be a much less interesting (and intellectually stimulating) site than it is. Thank you.
Costello isn’t going to hang around on the backbench for nothing. Clearly he doesn’t want the heavy load of opposition leader in Labors first term. The second term would be a different matter, particularly if the economy is slowing down. He could set himself up as Australia’s economic saviour.
I know, I know, it’s not a time to start worrying about winning the next election/elections. But just indulge me for a moment.
Ross Gittins is now saying there’s quite a likely chance of a recession hitting Australia, through no fault of Labor. What will the fallout be if this happens?
The obvious thing you fear is that tough economic times will hit, and Rudd will get blamed for it. And the Libs will spin this into a story about their superior economic management.
well said J of M! That’s the spirit.
I tend to agree with you, moreover, that anyone senior minister associated with Howard era should probably move on now. Id say Downer will resign from the shadow frontbench tomorrow. He and Tip have no doubt done the right thing.
Hopefully, it should serve as an example to Abbott. Its over. Abbott is the main rep of a political tendency within the Libs that has been thoroughly rejected by the public. He should probably leave parliament altogether. His mere presence will retard the sort of changes they’ll need to make themselves electable again.
Nelson is just new enough to hang on, and obviously Turnbull Bishop etc. Nelson is probably a good choice for a stop-gap – they guy who wont ever be elected, but can start the renewal process.
LTEP – Stop teasing us. What’s your new name going to be?
(PS – Good to see you flying the ALP flag so strongly over the past few days, putting the lie to those absurd suggestions from some that you were a tory troll in disguise. I never believed that for a moment).
slackboy at 95.
Honestly!
The best Costello mentor for the Liberal party would be Tim.
Problem with Turnbull is that his constituency (high-income yuppies stuck with the Liberals) stuck with the Liberals. He won’t be distinctive enough from Labor to give voters a reason to switch, whereas Abbott is too distinctive.
I can more easily (and very happily
) see Abbott getting the numbers than Turnbull. Mind you, at this stage I’m thinking Nelson could end up being the consensus candidate that both sides of the party will settle for. I’d be just as happy with that, to be honest.
Bring on the DD election, and 100 Labor seats.
106 – Melbcity – yes, the Libs lost a chance at renewal and it can be a powerful factor in re-electing governments with waning popularity and policy agendas (e.g. NSW Labor). But the moment has passed. The Libs will need more that leadership renewal, they will now need significant policy renewal, and they are in the unenviable situation of being forced to side with FF in the senate if they want to vote down Labor legislation. This will make it difficult to take the fight to Labor on the middle ground and give Labor huge wedge opportunities.
peter hendy on abc news looks like he is happy (NOT)
oops the abc just lost the feed just as he started gasbagging lol
I’m betting Alexander Downer steps down tomorrow.
It’s a shame some vile Liberal Party members are scurrying away before I get to watch them sulk from the opposition seats in parliment.
Sean, You speak wisely.
Costello would relish being “forced” to cancel his retirement plans and humbly assume the Leadership.
Sounds like the way Lazarus with a triple bypass was humbly “forced” to return as Opp. Leader when Downer came a cropper. They’re never gone until they’re gone.
Darn… I don’t know to be honest!
How about… Let Them Eat Pork?
Betamax @ 126, I think Rudd better start crafting the lines now, just as Howard honed them over the years, you know the sort of thing “Labor’s $X debt”, “17% interest rates under Labor” etc. Rudd’s lines would emphasise Howard’s failure to invest in infrastructure that could have led to productivity growth, squandering the dividend of the mining boom, ignoring education, huge foreign debt etc.
A compunding problem as the Liberals squabble over the spoils of defeat will be that they will very likely not have sufficient funds to mount a campaign state or Federal for many years. If I was a Businessman I certainly would be reticent to pour good money into any Liberal campaign in the next five years.
Hemingway-
missed that Baird performance. Thanks for bringing me back to reality.I am really fossicking for some granules of gold in the ashes.
Ruddock and Andrews? Surely tongue -in-cheek?
Will consolidate Labor even furth….ahhhhh……(the sound of a penny dropping) !
hendy is back -asked question re unions -worried labor will be beholden to them lol
they still dont get it
the people have spoken
Jude @137, the problem with the tactic is that it has a shelf life. It is backward looking and is part of the reason for the defeat. The lines become a mantra and then a prism through which all policy is seen. It is a very difficult habit to break. I hope we have seen the end of governments that bring up 20, 30, 40 year old government decisions in an attempt to be re-elected.
Abbott looks to me like the Liberal-version of Keating. Good performer in Parliament who always puts up a fight, but also manages to piss off a lot of people. That probably works better in Government than in Opposition, but who knows…?
Spot on, Steve. Turnbull can’t fund everything! (In Wentworth we were getting glossy pamphlets in the mail just about every day in the last weeks.) Much as I’d like to see Turnbull as a future leader, I can’t see him having much appeal to the “Howard battler” constituency. Even though he’s a self-made man he’d be seen as too much of a silvertail. Point Piper’s a long way from Struggle St.
Pyne still saying he is running for Deputy Leader even though he hasn’t won a seat yet. The story of postal votes is another factor working against the Libs at the next election as it worked for them at the weekend.
http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/pyne-still-considering-leadership-role/20071126-1ct1.html
Steve,
Pyne looks safe in Sturt. And he’s probably not going to get the deputy leadership (Bishop and Robb look to be favourites).
Re Costello staying. Someone wrote yesterday that Costello maxes his super if he stays till 18th march 2008.
I would suggest that will be an important date regardigng possible resignation. The other imprtant thing will be to get his mate Michael Kroger the pre-selection in Higgins.
Given Kennett’s contribution this morning, it could be a bloody fight.
I guess Howard didn’t have a mandate after all when he lied about the GST.
http://news.theage.com.au/labor-has-no-mandate-for-ir-changes/20071126-1csr.html
Re 134,
The Duke Says:
That wouldn’t surprise me one bit for a variety of reasons.
1. rumours flying over the last 3 to 6 months about his interest in state politics
2. his interview on Insiders Sunday morning (pre Costello announcement btw) – he looked like death warmed over he was so upset (maybe he had been crying all night or had little or no sleep). I can’t imagine he will be happy at all on the back bench.
3. Another PB’r posted information after he got home from working a booth in Mayo on Saturday. Don’t remember who it was but he would recognize himself if he reads this comment. He said that they were told when they took the bunting down to “be careful” with it as it might be needed for a by-election.
As much as I hate to acknowledge it, if Costello had even half the single minded determination Howard had throughout the eighties and nineties to become Prime Minister he would not be cutting and running now. When Howard famously declared that Kim Beazley didn’t have the ticker for the job, it would have been much more accurate if he’d said it of his own treasurer.
Having said that, I can in a way understand why Costello is giving them the finger.
It was obvious that Howard had lied in denying the commitment he had given to him to hand over the Prime Ministership after a couple of terms, in return for a clear run at the leadership – a win, win for both of them – and the party knew that. Now they expect him to pick up the pieces. But the fact remains, if Costello wanted the top job badly enough – as Howard did – he would stay.
Here it is – Howards gone.
McKew claims PM’s seat
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007/mckew-claims-pms-seat/2007/11/26/1196036777768.html
Sky just announced that Downer will address his future tomorrow. This came on the heels of a story about the Lib leadership options. David Spears says it wouldn’t surprise him one bit if Downer steps down.
Observer @ 150,
I don’t see how the situation has changed since yesterday. Nothing has been counted since 4:30pm, so why didn’t she claim victory last night?
Dolly will retire tomorrow. AWB hangs over him like a giant storm cloud.
If the moderates win and elect Turnbull now, the uglies will go feral on them. They are always in the mood for a fight and are in a position of strength at the moment internally in the Party.
If Nelson(the man with the immoveable face) gets elected we will all die of boredom. And superhornetgate hangs over his head as a problem for him.
If Abbott gets elected you can bank on a DD election and a Lib slaughter.
Good work Johnny. In the name of your own self interest you have destroyed the immediate (and maybe longterm) future of the Liberal Party.
Also wouldn’t be surprised to see the Nats go it alone pretty soon. Led by Bananaby
El Nino @ 141, but it worked for Howard the first couple of times. As with all his tactics, he tried it on once too often and this election no one was listening any more, and it just cemented the idea of an old guy with no new ideas.
Labor has to come up with some way of disassociating itself in the popular mind with economic downturn, as the electorate is not sophisticated enough to understand there is not always a causal connection. Howard benefited from good timing with the boom, and was absolutely shameless in claiming all the credit. Whatever else his legacy, in the popular mind, if a recession hits, the Howard era will be thought of as “the good old days”.
Swing Lowe@142
The Mad Monk’s days in public office are over, even at school he was renown for turning debating into a blood sport. Parliament doesn’t need that. Change the Government – Change the Country. He should get out.
LTEP – “Let Them Eat Pork” sounds pretty good to me, given the amount of pork barrelling our desperate former Prime Minister indulged in to try and bribe his way back into power. Yes, I think I like that.
Of course you could also consider – “Thanks For Losing The Election”.
Hmm… If Abbott doesn’t get the Leadership, will he resign? Or will he go for Shadow Treasurer?
I’m sure he doesn’t want to get stuck in Health again…
Isn’t it possible, and I’d argue likely, that Costello was ‘nudged’ out of contention? The Libs will want to move away from the Right wing nut jobs that have plunged them so deeply into electoral oblivion. Costello is a voice of the past and I suspect the moderates with the Liberal party know this.
LTEP,
My suggestion for your new name is “Thank God It’s Over”. Coz that’s how I’ve been feeling for the last couple of days…
Max the Axe claims Bennelong
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007/mckew-claims-pms-seat/2007/11/26/1196036777768.html
Abbott would be a highly amusing choice as leader of the liberal party, if only for the fact he is barking mad. After his election campaign though, he has no chance. Turnbull seems the best choice, but I suspect the boring graduate from my alma mater, Brendan Nelson, will win the role.
Spare a thought for the Exclusive Bretheren. They must be feeling that the world truly is coming to end. I hope it would for them. Nasty piece of work and I only hope that we’ll see the end of this sort of thing. Rudd should set up an enquiry/Royal Commission and get to the bottom of all these things.
Petro Georgio as leader and Malcolm Turnbull as Treasurer.
Noel@113
“well amused by the enthusiam for abbott as leader in this blog. i think his tenure would be filarious. mind you he’s got about as much chance of that as he has of getting to heaven. ”
Gee that’s s bit severe – not even I would bash him that hard. Anyway, I doubt he’d be welcome in Hell.
Congratulations to Prof. Beazley on his new job:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22822197-29277,00.html
William, does this mean that you’ll soon be working with the Bomber?
JoM – Turnbull would take the first opportunity to knife Georgio. He’s clearly a man who thinks he was born to rule.
I made this observation yesterday, that Labor now needs to create its own mantra that enters the sub-concious of the public much in the way of Keating’s 17% and they should be:
1. this is a Keating/China/Global boom economy that has given prosperity
2. decade of wasted prosperity, leaving us behind the world
3. Liberal social divided the country
4. Liberals lived off the politics of fear and intolerance
5. Liberals had no respect for democracy
6. Liberals have given us a inflationary economy
They need to run these lines over and over from now on until the next election – until people take them for granted.
Darn, his ego sure is up there.
If he does succeed lets give him a chance he may have some very good ideas.
So who won the most money? I reckon I’m up for $279 for $30 invested. We should have elections as often as the horseys. I could retire now
LassetersSport offers betting on Next Liberal Party Leader:
TURNBULL, Malcolm: 1.20
NELSON, Dr Brendan: 4.50
ABBOTT, Tony: 9.00
BISHOP, Julie-LIB: 13.00
Any Other Candidate: 21.00
HOCKEY, Joe-LIB: 26.00
DOWNER, ALexander: 34.00
VALE, Danna-LIB: 34.00
“Any other candidate” is a shorter price than Shrek or Dolly?
I like those odds
Dpuble disolusion?
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22821779-601,00.html
Different odds at Sportingbet on the Lib leadership:
Malcolm Turnbull 1.45
Tony Abbott 3.75
Brendan Nelson 4.75
Joe Hockey 7.00
Julie Bishop 9.00
Any Other 10.00
Dana Vale 17.00
Why they are offering odds on Dana Vale is beyond me, but anyway…
167 – Labor now needs to create its own mantra
They need to hammer workchoices – how far it went, and how far it could have gone under a re-elected Liberal govt. The biggest myth pushed by the Howard govt has been the claim of economic management credentials – most of which was due to Hawke/Keating reforms.
Labor made a big mistake in letting the kudos for this slide, so they need to lock in Workchoices as Howard’s “17%”.
JoM – Turnbull may well have some good ideas, but he’d better make sure some version of Workchoices isn’t one of them.
#169, I may have imagined it, but I’m sure someone wrote in an earlier thread they had won of the order of $10,000 on election betting. I’m not sure how much they staked though !
The leadership of the Liberal Party won’t mean anything for 6 years with this win.
A clean out of this lot will be good and I hope that it will be the death of the neo conservatives.
I thought Kevin was all class in his acceptance speech on Saturday and his press conference yesterday. I can’t say the same for Keating in today’s SMH who gave us just as bigger loss as Howard has suffered and is still under the impression that he was loved by the country.
As you can tell I prefer the Hawke style of concensus and nation building than a style of divsion and neglect.
I think Kevin Rudd has this approach and I hope that the party factions know (as it was in 1983). He won the election and he calls the shots.
SL @ 165 – he’ll only be there for a while before taking up the ambassadorship in Washington, I would have thought.
Dana vale as opposition Leader!!!!!! Tell me i’ve died and gone to heaven.
She will ask a question about the economy to the Attorney General. Or maybe she will just fax her questions.
$1.45 on Turnbull seems pretty good odds to me. I can’t see anyone else in that field of alternatives being electable – unless the Liberals are prepared to elect an interim leader, knowing that they will be despatched before the next election..
JOM
The Coalition won’t be able to count on Barnaby Joyce if they resist Workchoices reform. They may not have the numbers
Paladin(169) I had $600 on at $1.95 about four months ago. Net profit – $570.
John of Melbourne… no because the Greens, Steve Fielding and Nick Xenephon will both support some type of amendment to the current Workplace laws.
DLP you’re right. Barnaby Joyce has been very impressive pre and post election. He should move to the lower house and take the Nationals Leadership he definitely has appeal.
LtEP that is post June until then the Coalition has control of the Senate.
Danna Vale might just be stupid enough to have put her hand up. LMAO.
Re 165,
Swing Lowe Says:
Guess that this means Rudd will have to find someone else for the UN and Washington
The Coalition is not suicidal enough to go to a DD election – they would hand Labor a Senate majority and destroy their chances in the lower house for the two elections after that at least, assuming they had any seats left whatsoever. Those ministers in suddenly very marginal looking seats (Pyne etc) would also be rather keen to avoid a DD election which would end their federal careers.
As such, expect a bit of fuss followed by Labor’s anti-WC amendments sailing through the senate with no amendments.
Sorry, I should have said “…those SHADOW ministers…”
I can’t get used to that… but I like the way it sounds!
JoM: Given how maverick Joyce has been, do you think the Libs would want to be in a coalition with Joyce as the leader? It would spell trouble. Some Libs would be very annoyed with the Nats not following the line, even though it would better suit the Nats.
Re 172,
John of Melbourne Says:
Bring it on, bring it on
I want to see triple digit numbers for the ALP seat count 
I meant ‘Joycs as the leader of the Nats’.
***Vale Matt Price, a bright-burning candle, alas too brief***
Re Costello: what a weak, whimpish -and wonderfully welcome- exit he has made from the main stage, tail drooping. Obviously he won’t stay long (March 18 sounds about right) as his “time to forge a new career” comment suggests. He is a smarmy, self-absorbed man, whose brand of parliamentary schtick was lauded by the commentariat but which I always found laborious, poorly constructed, predictable and unfunny. His punchlines were telegraphed and suffered from the smugness inherent in their delivery. WILL NOT BE MISSED.
LTEP -how about “Let Them Eat Pork”? And please, mate, could you predict that the Dockers will narrowly lose next year’s Grand Final? That would give me great hope.
In other news, I have heard an interesting if slightly implausible rumour – Julian Burnside QC to replace Gleeson CJ as Chief Justice of the High Court.
Maybe not as crazy as it sounds, but it would be a brutal correction to Howard’s years of stacking the Court.
Incidentally, it’s worth reflecting how important this election result is to the future of the Australian legal system. Another two Howard appointments and independent legal though would have been in real danger on the High Court.
In addition, it’s interesting to reflect that Howard has managed to stack the Court, get the WorkChoices decision in favour of the Commonwealth, and then hand power straight to his ideological nemesis to do what it will with the unfettered power that results…
The Dockers will lose next year’s Grand Final in the same way that the Shooters Party lost this year’s federal election.
Regards,
A Geelong Supporter
LTEP, got a new name for ya:
“I Can’t Believe It’s Not Opposition”
I wonder if John Howard has worked out yet that the beginning of the end for him was when he introduced workchoices. There are none so blind as those who will not see.
I think the new Opposition’s best bet would be to bring back Richard Alston.
JoM: Brandis is a fool. The Business Council of Australia is welcoming a clear result and is willing to work with Labor on IR. Economists have come out in saying that scrapping AWAs will not be inflationary, which takes the wind out of the sails of Libs attack on the Labor’s IR policy. Also the election may not have been totally about IR, but it was a big issue and any attempt by the new opposition to keep WorkChoices will look very badly on them.
I’m sure the Rudd government will be willing to risk a DD given the majority it has. Are the Libs in a financial position to go round 2 with Labor?
Finally, doesn’t seem like parliament will sit until February, so that would mean May would be the 2nd time to put the legislation through, and almost a waste of time to go for a DD once a less hostile Senate is around in July.
The budget will the big thing in May, if the Libs block it (or talk about blocking it) they will pay a price too.
This will be the coalition’s last battle really, and in that sense they will look like poor losers if they try to force Rudd’s hand on a DD.
167 and others on Labor’s need for a new mantra
Good call, a mantra is exactly what Labor needs. I think it needs to be a single soundbyte — like “Beazley’s black hole” — that sums up the way the Libs have let Australia slide during their watch, by not investing in education, technology and infrastructure. Something like the “lost years”, perhaps.
I also agree that Labor needs to start properly “branding” its history, and the Hawke/Keating economic reforms. You can understand why they haven’t done this during the election campaign; Keating’s perceived “baggage”, the recession we had to have, and all the rest of it.
To repeat myself, though, most of all I hope they start using a mantra to sum up the Howard years. If we do hit economic tough times, people need to be able to understand that one of the reasons they have happened has been this lack of investment in infrastructure, training, broadband, research, science, and so on.
However, I’m not sure they will. Remember that the FIRST THING Rudd did in his victory speech was pat Howie on the back (something that went down like a lead balloon in the Randwick Labor Club, let me tell you — can you imagine Keating doing it?). I fear that the new Labor team might see this as too negative and too much the “politics of the past”, a laudable attitude but one that could really work against them.
Patrick Bateman,
There is no way Rudd will replace Gleeson with Burnside. Burnside is too much of a loose cannon and conservative commentators everywhere will shows that it is evidence of the culture wars being reignited – exactly what Rudd doesn’t need at the start of his term.
My tip for Gleeson’s replacement will be Jim Spiegelman, Chief Justice of the NSW Supreme Court. He’s liberal (in the American sense) to please the Labor Left (he was the complainants’ barrister in the Stolen Generations case), but with enough judicial experience to quell any conservative concerns.
If the Coalition block the repeal of WorkChoices they will have no chance of winning the 2010 election.
147 Brandis certainly seemed in believe in the Mandate theory in this Maxine McKew interview in 2005.
GEORGE BRANDIS: Well, I think in the first place, it will mean that the government will be able to deliver on the mandate that it’s received. If you look at the legislation that’s been held up in the Senate in the past, most of that legislation is legislation for which the government has received a mandate, not once, but now at four successive elections, most notably the industrial relations legislation. Now, I’ve lost count, honestly, of the number of times on which that package of bills has been knocked back. Last time I counted, I think it was about 17 times. That has been a manifesto commitment of the government at each one of the last four federal elections, but our Labor opponents, under the Whip from the trade unions, have knocked it back. We’ll be able to pass it and so give effect to the people’s expressed wishes at the election. Can I broaden that point to make a different point? Just because the government has a majority in the Senate, where does the notion come from that that’s un-democratic? I remember in years gone by when Mr Keating and Mr Hawke and before that Mr Whitlam were the Prime Minister, the Labor Party would say, “Well, how undemocratic can this be, that the Senate is holding up legislation which we the Labor Government committed to at elections?” When the boot’s on the other foot, somehow the argument changes.
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2005/s1321817.htm
Labor needs to create a few economic mantras in case the world economy turns down or inflation keeps rising.
They need to put it firmly in the mind of the electorate that it is the fault of the Liberal party – ie Decade of wasted prosperity, Decade of misspent surpluses increasing infalation, the prosperous economy that we have had firmly identified with Keating and the current boom times; noting that Howard and Co basically did nothing.
This will be an important mantra to create – because we don’t know how the world economy is going to progress over the next few years, especially the USA.
My Saturday night euphoria was slightly tempered by the return of Michael Keenan in Stirling, albeit with his slender margin further thinned. I met Peter Tinely at my local service station about 10.30 Saturday night and he looked pretty well knackered. I commiserated and offered the consolation that at least we were in government, and there was always 2010/2011. “Are you up for another go?” I asked as he turned towards his car. He turned back. His face lit up. “Shit yeah!”
Good find steve.
steve @ 138
“A compunding problem as the Liberals squabble over the spoils of defeat will be that they will very likely not have sufficient funds to mount a campaign state or Federal for many years.”
Does anyone have a read on their current financial position. They chewed through a shed load of cash at this campain – the cupboard may be bare.
Labor should say that the economy is a means to improve living standards, it isn’t an end unto itself.
If people don’t benefit from a growing economy, then there is no point growing the economy.
Maxine has claimed Bennelong.
Well she kind of did and kind of didn’t.
I thought the latest was that she expects a result by Friday.
darn – i think serfchoices, whilst a big factor, was not the only reason for the baseball bats swinging. i’d like to think that it was a pattern of behaviour that eventually caught up with howard et al. and omigod, a GIFT to the ALP – that ridiculous transition-to-the smirk scenario.
I would love to see the Mad Monk as leader with the Stroke Victim as deputy. What a classic combination that would be! lol
Vaile’s press conference to resign his leadership is coming up soon – 2pm.
Good to hear. Tinley is a top notch candidate.
Would you dare utter the words ‘dream team’, Dario?
ELECTION FALLOUT – Sky News has scheduled a media conference for Mark Vaile shortly live on Sky. NO hint as to the content of his statement.
“The Wasted Years” has already been said a few times on this blog. I suggest that as the “mantra” description of Howard/Costello.
It’s got the added advantage of explinaining why you shouldn’t vote Liberal in 2010 even if the economy is slowing. It’s their fault – they wasted the good times.
Great get Steve @ 205.
Will Vaile announce the Nats will break the Coalition too? Please God, let it be true.
I don’t think the Nationals have a future anyway (and don’t care), but does anyone know if the nats have someone to succeed Mark Vaile, or will it just be a differently branded sheep in the top paddock?
Three coalition leaders taken out in one election – eat that Malcolm Fraser!
Is the Stroke Victim Warren Truss?
It would be hilarious if the Howdy Doody man of Australian politics – Peter Maguaran – became deputy leader of the Opposition.
Labor will be better for regional Australia than the Coalition ever was.
Look at Dawson! 20% swings to Labor in some booths.
Nah, Robb
Absolutely!
The most important influence Howard’s defeat will have on the future of Australian politics, I believe, will be in underlining the fact that current and future high profile politicians will have a much-reduced shelf-life. The ubiquity of modern media and the intensity of its scrutiny mean that PMs, in particular, appear so often on our TVs that we tire of them so much sooner. Menzies’ reign would not have been half as long in the modern era.
I believe Rudd is astute enough to recognise this factor and will be Australia’s first PM since Menzies to leave at a time of his own choosing -I’m guessing in seven to eight years- and handing over to our first-ever female PM. Julia Gillard will easily defeat Julie Bishop at the 2016 election, during which the Liberals will be replaced by the Greens as the major Opposition party
lol with you Dario@212. they’d be hard pressed to come up with a grimmer pairing.
ShowsOn: Yeah, amazing! Though, for the Tories to be powerful again both parties need to rebuild. Only way the Nats can rebuild is by breaking away from the Libs and actually voting for/against policy based on their party’s ideology not the Libs.
The only reason the Nats and Libs haven’t merged is due to QLD and the fact the Nats are the senior party of the coalition there. Until the Nats in QLD become minor, I dare say the QLD coalition will merge. The only other thing is for the other states to start the ball rolling and leave the QLD branches the last to do anything (as usual).
oops, dario, i assumed ’stroke victim’ was brendan nelson….but on reflection he’s more like Ruddock of the Undead.
On second thought, The Mad Monk should be the leader of the Liberals. At the infamous meeting at Manl-Warringah Leagues Club he said something about giving someone a boot up the arse. Maybe we could compile a list for him, lets see who needs a good boot up the bum – Julie Bishop, Alexander Downer, Malcolm Turnbull, Christopher Pyne ….
Better still they could do it as fund raiser!
I always thought of Ruddock as a stroke victim.
Mouth is all smiles but the eyes are dead.
http://www.ag.gov.au/agd/WWW/rwpgslib.nsf/GraphicFilesPersonal/(CFD7369FCAE9B8F32F341DBE097801FF)~Ruddock+FLC/$FILE/Ruddock+Philip25percent.jpg
Melbourne is tipped to be a marginal seat. Greens have jumped over Libs on pre-postals and prefs favour them from Socialists and Democrats.
Lisa: Intersting.
Doesn’t Tanner still have 50% primaries though?
Mark Vaile is a complete personality vacuum.
He has just resigned from the leadership of the Nationals.
Yes, 50.82
Plus, a lot of the Liberal votes will leak to Tanner anyway.
After nearly 12 years, we finally have a Deputy Prime Minister to be proud of.
Vaile resigns??
Benelong gone to Maxine…
This just gets better and better. If Richard DN gets into the senate my joy will be complete.
I certainly believe the ALP would be wise to bring forward their IR legislation while the Libs control the senate.
Either they back down, or they block it till July.
Either way, its a PR win for Rudd.
Did anyone hear Keating on The World Today?
He called Abbott a Young Fogey – Howard was the Old Fogey – Abbott is just the same, but younger.
I completely agree with him, Abbott as leader would be going backwards, because Abbott won’t admit that anything Howard did was wrong.
Oh- forgot to mention another bit of icing – a big swing against Sophie Mirrabella. In the order of 8%….lol.
Popcorn (211) I agree with you that there were other causes as well, but it was evident in the polls at the time that workchoices started the big slide and Howard never recovered after that.
She’s my new De-Anne Kelly. Hopefully she gets kicked out at the next election, her only redeeming feature is her Labor voting husband.
Leaving with dignity
Noticed on ABC that McKew has all but claimed victory in Bennelong saying “Bennelong is now a Labor seat”. Her lead can’t be passed on postals.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/26/2101269.htm
Point is, under Westminster conventions the beaten candidate is supposed to concede before the winner claims victory. But Howard is dragging his feet.
Vaile’s gone!
That’s my (more believable) mail too – apparently the deal is done for Spiegelman. As I said, the Burnside thing was implausible, but I do think it’s not completely unimaginable.
I would love to see French J get the nod – unfortunately I think he has some Lib connections in WA though, but from a purely legal point of view he’d be gold.
SMH has just got a story up about Vaile resigning. Wants a new career in the portk industry.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007/new-shock-as-vaile-quits/2007/11/26/1196036785226.html
I think Howard pretty well conceded Bennelong on Saturday night.
Re Bennelong, the AEC site still shows about 1400 absent and postals not counted, but she’s ahead enough to win, apparently. That’s how it appears to me.
Further to what ShowsOn says about Abbott not being prepared to admit any errors on the part of Howard:
No senior member of the Coalition has publicly denounced Howard or his policies, despite their comprehensive vote of no confidence in him as leader weeks ago.
I don’t think the Coalition will be in a position to rebuild until it can publicly admit the errors and missed opportunities of the Howard years.
So while many might delight in the carnage of Vale and Brough losing their seats, Costello quitting politics and Vaile resigning the Nats leadership, these are the very things that will allow the Coalition to start again and challenge in 2013/2016.
Vaile’s resigning before the inevitable inquiry.
Maxine will win by over 1000 votes. My analysis suggest around 1350 votes. No problem.
Vaile in the pork industry! LOL
Oh, too clever!
The party slogan was always “Let them eat pork”, huh?
Isn’t Keating in the pork industry?
The new Liberal leader needs to:
1) Support the ratification of Kyoto, to prove he isn’t a climate change denier.
2) Let Labor pass all their I.R. amendments
3) Support Australia becoming a Republic
Basically they need to get all those issues out of the way within the first 6 months so they can start defining what they stand for.
Vaile quits. Nice one Mark. How many more rats are there on board? In this picture for the GG website Vaile indicates just how small he feels after Saturday’s debacle
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/
I’ve always thought of Sophie Mirabella as a young Bronny Bishop.
Speaking of young fogeys, I didn’t hear Keating today but he used that line about Abbott years ago, and it was funnier then cos Abbott was only in his 30s.
John of Melbourne Says:
Isn’t Keating in the pork industry?
Yes, but thankfully for us, he is using his own money.
Kirribilli Removals, maaaaaate.
Can you leave that job in the wine cellar for a minute, mate, and hive over to the Vote Counting Depot?
Them slackers need a bloody rocket up them!!!!
He was a skater boy
She said “see ya later boy”
He wasn’t good enough for her
Now he’s a superstar
Slammin on his guitar
Does your pretty face see what he’s worth?
He was a skater boy
She said “see ya later boy”
He wasn’t good enough for her
Now he’s a superstar
Slammin on his guitar
Did your pretty face see what he’s worth?
Good riddance Vaile. The Forrest Gump of Australian politics: always in the background but with no obvious reason for existence. In his early days as a Minister he was run by a particularly rank office staff and I saw no signs of improvement more recently.
Marvellous Marvin 249
You are right. As long as the Liberals can’t admit where they failed, its the decade in opposition they had to have
Vaile’s turning to professional skateboarding.
The Liberal’s attack on Keating’s piggery was always based around the class notion that a Labor politician shouldn’t own a business, and especially not a livestock business.
BV – I hope Michael Brissendon uses that song under his story tonight.
The Nationals should set up a roster for being leader, and rotate it every 3-6 months. They don’t have many to choose from.
Amanda Vanstone is also into pork.
Loving the recriminations and latter-day recantations at the GG: Pm’s Hubris leaves Liberal party in ruins! etc.
hehe. Will be enjoying reading the GG for weeks.
Yes John of Melbourne, Keating and the Labor Party just killed the pig!
I can’t recall the ALP ever renouncing the Hawke/Keating years in order to help them rebuild post 96. I doubt there will be too much public renouncing from the Coalition either. They do need a generational shift though. One of Beazley’s problems was his association with the Hawke/Keating government (though I still think he’d have made a wonderful PM). For now I think they will stick to what they know….Turnbull is still too green (in terms of experience if not politics); Nelson has no balls and Downer is a joke. I’m guessing they’ll go for Abbott to try and take it up to Kevin in parliament. It won’t work of course but first term opposition leaders rarely do.
ShowsON
“The Liberal’s attack on Keating’s piggery was always based around the class notion that a Labor politician shouldn’t own a business, and especially not a livestock business.”
Its really a confusing position, isn’t it ShowsOn. I mean, if Labor politicians become capitalists, Liberals criticise. Yet if they stay union officials, they are criticised more. Quite hard to please, these Liberals. I think they really want a one-party State (not that they’re communists or anything!) So you can either be Liberals (ruling class) or workers (serving class). What would we do without them to guide us?
Don’t know if anyone has posted this nice little update yet, enjoy!
http://www.domain.com.au/Public/PropertyDetails.aspx?adid=2006832414
Don’t tell me the Minister for Horseflu is a chance of becoming a Leader of a Federal Party. It doesn’t get better than that does it?
http://www.nationals.org.au/ourteam/mps/mcgauran_p.asp
LeftE
I’m looking forward to the story “Milne and Shanahan’s Hubris leaves Howard’s sense of reality in ruins” LOL
Its amusing seeing all the right wing print journos repositioning themselves as people who “saw it coming”. Even funnier will be the light weight TV reporters who said on Friday night “its too close to call” spending this week saying why Saturday’s result was inevitable.
If Nelson wins the Liberal leadership, Labor will probably run a scare campaign on evil Union leaders dominating and owning the Party.
Hey Neilbris, are you related to Hughbris?
Just a personal reflection, but I really cannot see Turnbull getting the numbers, despite his oversized ego, he is not experienced enough, is not trusted enough, and is way too ‘liberal’ for the hardnuts. Of course he’ll try, so get ready for a very fine show.
Big problem of course is that they need someone with experience but who is not tainted with the craven power games of Howard. Hmm, hard to see who could fit the bill, so they’ll have to compromise (what else?).
My gut feeling is that they’ll need a tough guy to reign in the factions and someone to take the barrage that awaits them when their bums hit the opposition benches. This person is Abbott, hide like a rhino and maybe with enough testosterone left after the party’s ballot whipping.
Whatever, it’s going to be a knock’em down fist fight. Get ya popcorn ready.
I live in Lowe (seat next to Bennelong), but can someone please tell me where the f*** is the suburb of Balaclava (in Bennelong) is?
I have lived here for 18 years and I have no idea where Maxine McKew was talking about in the ABC article, where she said there was a big swing in Balaclava…
There’s no suburb called Balaclava, but there is Balaclava Road in Marsfield, which is what I imagine she’s talking about.
Hi Jude.
No. Why?
239 Show’s On:
re the libs leadership, PJK also said:
He preferred Nelson when he had an earring, and
Referring to his (PK’s) famous cracker night speech, he said Turbull reminded him of the big Red bunger – “you know, you light it up, and you expect a big bang, but mostly it just goes “Pfft”".
Ah, that makes sense Steph. Thanks
Balaclava – Epping Boys High School, Vimiera Rd, MARSFIELD NSW 2122
Guys, can you give Kirribilli Removals my message at 258. When he shows up. I gotta go for a while.
Thanks.
I think Abbott would be a huge mistake for the Liberals
He doesn’t believe in climate change
He is a monarchist
He won’t admit that WorkChoices was a factor in the loss
Basically he would continue Howard’s legacy, instead of repudiating parts of it.
But if the Liberals want an opposition leader who they can get rid of in 2 or 3 years then he is probably ideal. He won’t win an election though.
Balaclava ?
maybe Maxine was referring to a big swing in where the balaclava (baseball) bat
was heading
Jude @ # 275
LOL
PJK certainly loves his fireworks analogies doesn’t he?
KR. I agree that they’ll go for Abbott – which should at least make for some fireworks in question time. The smell of Howard will hang around his neck like a dead dog though. I doubt he’ll remain leader till the next election.
Kirribilli 276
I agree with your reasoning and I’d lvoe to see Abbott as Liberal leader, but not for the Liberal’s sake. Abbott is a typical bully character – on the attack when the referee (PM and speaker) is on his side). But in parliament as an opposition leader, with a speaker who will pull him into line for behavioural issues, he will struggle. The first time a social issue like access to RU486 comes along, he could go ballistic. Should be fun to watch.
Labor lead in Swan is now UP to 44 votes – that seat is going down to the wire…
The WORST POLITICALLY (for labor) as opposition leader would be Turnbull
Hopefully the Liberals disagree and go for Nelson who has the numbers
(per Centrebet)
Shrek has dropped out of the leadership race.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22822394-601,00.html
Swing Lowe at 277
She’s talking about the polling booth at Epping Boys High, on Balaclava Rd in Marsfield.
According to the AEC site there was an 8% TPP swing to her in that booth.
What was that nauseating comment of Abbott’s years ago? Something like if he were twice the man he (Abbott) is, he’d only be half the man Howard is. He could run for the leadership on the grounds that he’s only a quarter John Howard.
Please let it be Tony Abbott.
I’m not sure who else is left to yell at on the telly anymore.
Abbott – the leader with 75% less Howard. Might just work
288
Neilbris
The prospect is just so damn tantalizing isn’t it? The Mad Monk V Bankbull, it’s kinda God V Mammon!
In some ways I want to see an old Howardista in the front seat, because they really deserve to get the blowtorch. A neophyte like Malcolm can dodge a lot of it, which is one reason he may in fact get up, but they’d be holding their noses.
It depends on whether or not they still want to hold onto the Great Leader’s mythology, or if they’ve got the nads to repudiate it. This will be a great dividing line, like the remnant backbone to the rotting cadaver that they have become.
i don’t know what shrek has been smoking – he’s going to “work tirelessly for liberal re-election in three years time”. i don’t think so.
Keating was funny but I think Rudd approached the acknowledgement to Howard in the appropriate manner, as did Gillard.
Whether we like it or not, any hubris at this stage would be political poison.
Remember how the Libs used that footage of Labour celebrating a win by dancing and enjoying themselves to devestating effect, could not bear that sort of crap happening again.
No need to twist the knife given the huge win and the way the Libs are imploding. Sit back and enjoy.
Swing Lowe at 201
Hmmnn Don’t forget that before the MUA case Burnside was an establishment lawyer. I think Justice Vincent from the VSCA would be a strong contender.
Jen, I’m sure we’ll all start to yell at Kevin soon enough.
Neilbris at 296 – LOL
Speaking of using/abusing the powers of government (Abbott and access to RU486) I have heard some disturbing anecdotal stories about Nelson knocking back ARC research grant proposals along politicla lines. Do any academics present have any views on the truth of this? Moreover, does anyone know what Labor plans to do with this body?
Another issue that burns in tertiary education is the nitroduction of the “research quality framework” which has been an albatross around the necks of many university departments for some 18 months. It is one of those “can’t win” type issues. The RQF was badly thought out and some details stll haven’t been amde clear after over a year. Meanwhile academic departments have spent millions getting ready for it, so junking it will not be easy either. But it does need fixing – yet another idealogically driven coalition policy mess. Xanthippe has threatened to look for another career if it stays the same, and that concerns Socrates deeply. Midn, if Rudd wants to stop academics leaving the system, RQF is a good place to start looking at.
IMO there is a need for reform to several tertiay education structures, not just more money. Has anyone seen any Labor policy detail?
Kim Wilkie’s lead is down to 44 votes in Swan.
Socrates, Nelson is notorious for knocking back ARC research proposals that were perceived as not flattering to the government, or were centred around what Miranda Devine and her ilk termed worthless – eg gender society, cultural studies etc. He also stacked the board of the ARC with Liberal supporters.
Looks like Mark Vaile will have lots more time to spend skateboarding.
EXCLUSIVE: Mark Vaile resignation speech
“My mouth is in indirect proportions to my brain. I wish I could have shut up a lot more, not because I would have come across as half coherent, but because of the amount of flies I had to swallow in my career…”
No doubt Abbott is putting it all on the line. If he loses will he quit too? Being passed over at this stage would not auger well for his future prospects. Does he sit on the back bench brooding and plotting or does he get out and get a real job.
The fallout from Saturday is like being at a ten green bottle party.
Steph
Yes that is pretty much what I have heard too. In some cases the board was just plain ignorant, knocking back people who were good researchers and quite apolitical, because (I presume) they didn’t appreciate the significance of the reasearch. If my information is correct, that body bady needs a clean out.
ALP was making very negative noises about the RQF about two weeks ago, Socrates.here’s hoping.
And yes, Nelson used to bump ARC off the final list prepared by the Council. He used to recruit Windschuttle and Bolt to help out – they’d read the titles and 100 word summaries for that purpose – ie have no real idea what it was about.
Once again, it demonstrated the coalition’s shaky grip of democratic governance. They figured it means ‘they decide everything’ – where in fact, in means they decide policy settings, and the public service applies those rules neutrally, according to meritocratic principles, and due process.
Actually Swing Lowe… it’s up. It was lower than that this morning.
#307
Yes, I heard the same speech. He continued on… “I wish I hadn’t fallen off my skateboard so often, or at least worn a helmet. Let this be a lesson to you young kids.”
KR. Jesus reckoned that mammon would always beat God – in the battle for human loyalty at least. In this case I think god will beat mammon. They probably don’t want to see Turnbull destroyed just yet…..or maybe they do! And I agree – there will be some satisfaction in seeing Abbott plastered with all the sins of the Howard years and slowly (cos Labor will want to do him slowly) disappearing under a pile of sh*t
The leadership ballot will be interesting only in how close it will be. If it is a narrow win the Libs are split down the middle – probably fatally for many years.
I suspect this will be the case, will it be the uglies or the moderates who get up?
Looks like support for Abbott is becoming universal.
http://theorstrahyun.blogspot.com/2007/11/tony-abbott-i-want-to-lead-liberal.html
Lest we forget: see (courtesy of Crikey) http://www.motherjones.com/mojoblog/archives/2007/11/6277_a_look_back_at.html?source=cmailer
Abbott as leader will guarantee that the coalition will not rebuild its women’s vote before 2010. So lots of new Labor members in now marginal Labor seats should love that.
The real issue should be this, every one of the Liberal leadership potentials (leader and deputy leader) could be into their sixties before we get back in so nearly 10 years, thus we’re going to take a punt on Turnbull we might as well do it now though i believe Nelson would hold the Party together better than Mr T.
Julie Bishop will be the deputy leader IMHO.
Liberal 2007 FM: where the hits just keep on coming!
Oh boy, this sentence from P-Dwarf’s column at the GG is deeply gratifying:
“Even during the campaign Costello was giving private assurances he was in for the long haul. But on Saturday night as he watched the Coalition defeat unfold things were changing. “It was the magnitude (of the loss) that did it,” says one Liberal who watched the process of conversion.”
Ah, the GG. So many quality articles to enjoy… I could watch them eat crow forever….
Is anyone serious in suggesting Turnbull will make a good opposition leader?
He couldn’t even get the Republiuc up even though 70% of the country wanted one.
Surely the Labor line on Turnbull will be, ‘Do you really believe that a man who doesn’t think you are smart enough to elect your own President will govern in your interest?’
For all of the bleating of the latte lappers and doctor’s wives during the campaign, in the end they still felt they had more in common with Howard’s vision of Australia than Rudd’s.
It was the workers what done the Coalition in. These are the people that the Liberals have to win back and Turnbull has sweet f a chance of doing that.
I can’t think of anyone on the opposition benches who will win back the middle ground for the Coalition.
Kennett has demonstrated his ability to win the middle ground in the past and will have no fear in taking the stick to the radical right of the Liberal party.
Tony Abbott reciting Downer – ‘The things that batter’
Vaile is gone so who’ll lead the Nats, McGauran, Truss?
Agree with punters and bookies.
Turnbull is Liberal’s best bet given their current resource.
Anybody else, say Abbott, Nelson…, and Coalition will stay in opposition for as long as these idiots leading the Liberal.
I do wonder if, having had some time to think it over, Turnbull isn’t regretting rushing into the race so early. Shame his brain doesn’t match his ego.
Realistically if Turnbull takes it now he’ll be destroyed. Actually, realistically anyone who takes it now will be destroyed. Might as well make it the Monk I suppose and let him cop the flak. Might be the best thing in the long-term – their support is going to plummet which might (that’s might) send a message to the religious right.
Mind you, if Rudd calls a DD with Abbott still as leader, they’re screwed.
Regarding the ARC research proposals, there were about 2 or 3 instances where Nelson rejected them AFTER they had been allocated money by the ARC college of experts, and deigned worthy of funding. That is the particular thing that academics are unhappy about, as this is clearly a breach of academic freedom and to me, as an academic, is one of the most contemptuous things about the Howard government.
Glen,
To be fair, I agree with you that it should be Nelson ahead of Abbott. Nelson is not exciting, but wont offend people and won’t cost any more votes. Hence you could rebuild a little. Abbott by contrast is both closely linked to Howard and capable of saying somethign that could offend at any time. You can’t afford that.
That beign said, I do think Nelson has some baggage on ARC dealings that will embarrass when it comes out. But Abbott probably still ahs more.
HAHAHHAHAHAHAH Christian Kerr (former Liberal staffer) says that when Costello resigns from parliament his successor in Higgins should be Michael Kroger!
http://www.crikey.com.au/Election-2007/20071126-Kerr-Costello-bastardry-and-brilliance.html
If we go with Malcolm he’s our brightest star, if we use him up now we’re f’ed in future. I say go with Nelson if he loses 2010 meh, then get Malcolm in.
Julie, Julie, Julie, Julie, Julie, Julie, Julie, Julie, Julie, Julie, Julie, Julie 4 deputy.
Pyne – noooooo way!
Robb – zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz!
322 [Vaile is gone so who’ll lead the Nats, McGauran, Truss?]
Glen, I seriously doubt that Truss could lead a horse to water.
Geez Glen, Nelson has a hard time holding himself together. What makes you think he can hold a disspirited Coalition team together?? The neocons don’t trust him and the wets now hold their meetings in a cubicle of the parliamentary mens room (so as not to be noticed by the neocons). The loos are comfortable and all but way too big for the number of wets who meet there. So who is going to ensure Nelson gets the numbers and what makes you think he will suddenly grow sufficiently sized testicles to keep what’s left of his party from feasting on each other’s dying corpses???
Glen @ 318
WOuldn’t you be concerned with putting Turnbull in now? I see him as the most electable of the Libs (which is a loaded statement really, given that i’d never vote Liberal). If he’s put in now, he’d face all the disadvantages that face new oppositions and probably be tapped on the shoulder after losing the next election anyway…..
If he took it now then I would disagree. Labor is almost guaranteed two terms, and all that time as opposition leader would not be good for Turnbull IMO. I think his best bet would be to wait in the wings and take over around a year after the next election.
I am sceptical that he would have the numbers right now in any case. His self-obsessed performance this election will not have endeared him well with his colleagues, in particular the uglies.
326
Socrates – true nobody is perfect, and neither is Rudd but we need stability and i think Nelson could do this for us.
The problem is most of these Ministers, Bishop, Turnbull, Nelson, Abbott are all in their 50s or mid 50s so by the time we get back in they’ll be into their sixties some of them. We’ve got to in a 1 years time boot half a dozen MPs and hold by-elections to replace old used up MPs to get some young ppl in or we will be f’ed.
It doesn’t really matter who the Liberals make opposition leader now because he or she has next to no chance of ever becoming P.M.
The next Liberal P.M. probably isn’t in parliament yet.
He’ll probably pick up the West Australians, many NSW MPs and a few Queenslanders if he works with Julie Bishop. Nelson has been in Parliament for 11 years he’ll have the numbers its just whether he wants it.
glen, seriously, julie bishop?? i understand that you’re pushed for talent in the liberal party but you’re gonna have to raise your standards if you don’t want to remain in the wilderness for more than a decade!
btw, some interesting inside word from the union movement contact down here:
Q: Which two seats were the big focus of the “your Rights at Work” campaign in VIC?
A: Deakin and Corangamite
Popcorn – If you’re interested this article by Shaun Carney in The Age on the part Workchoices played in the downfall of Howard and Costello is a good read.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/escaping-the-wreckage/2007/11/25/1195975866024.html
The unfortunate thing for political parties with all-powerful autocratic leaders like John Howard, is when they leave, an inevitable power vacuum is left behind. The liberals now find themselves in a similar situation to the British conservative party post Thatcher in 1990. The only difference is her own party skewered her when she was losing the plot, before she lead them into the electoral abyss, and surprisingly gained an extra term out of John Major.
334
ShowsOn – no they are but we won’t use our cannon (Turnbull) till he can have a big effect.
Barring a global recession, the Libs have got 6 years to get their act together.
Forget 2010.
you are so right, showson – none of this current crop of losers is going to be PM.
Or you could just parachute in some of your talent from the State branches. Oh wait…
Glen well done on sticking around here despite your party’s disaster on the weekend.
I think Turnbull is the best bet but much better to wait a term then take over from the leader who loses in 2010. Abbott is the best option if you want a 3 + terms in opposition
He’ll be 60 years old before he has a chance of becoming P.M.
By then Bill Shorten will be Prime Minister – 15 years his junior.
darn @ 338 – thanks, darn, i’ll check it out.
326 [we need stability and i think Nelson could do this for us.]
Glen, I personally think that is a great idea put up two failed education ministers and let Labor flog them for three years with their education revolution. All I can say for the libs if they go down that high risk path is ‘forgive them for they know not what they do.’
If Mal Brough had have retained Longman, I suspect he would have at least been a candidate for the deputy leadership. I actually agree with Glenn, Julie Bishop would be a good choice as deputy.
Steve @ 322,
The problem for the Nats is that there aren’t that many people who could run to be their leader.
If it’s not Truss, it’s McGauran (who’s rubbish). If it’s not the above two, who else could it be? Cobb in Calare? Forrest in Mallee?
Their best chances of some sort of generational change (Parr and Hartsuyker) are both stuck in marginal seats (Hinkler and Cowper respectively), meaning that they are unlikely to want to take on the responsibility of being leader of the party.
So my guess is that Truss will become leader, McGauaran deputy and the rest will either be looking forward towards retirement or hanging onto their seats next time around…
Left E – Corangamite wasn’t main focus due to a whole host of issues, but a number of unions funded it regardless. Deakin and La Trobe were the main two.
The other option for the Nats is to call it a day and merge with the Libs. Given the current leadership vacuum in both parties, it may be time to pull the pin – nobody will get their nose out of joint by losing a leadership position.
Glen,
As I said before, I think the Nats should just rotate their leaders every 3-6 months, like having a roster or something. It’s not like they count these days.
As for the Liberal leadership, that’s got to be a hard choice. Turnbull should not of put his hand up, and he should of went for deputy and shadow treasurer. If he loses the ballot, he can be sure to only be a junior shadow minister if anything.
I’ll leave it to the powers that be, but I still think the next Lib PM will not be in parliament at the moment.
Ptobias i guess you and Wilson Tuckey have something you agree on.
I think its a joke the Nats havent merged with us but meh?
Reflecting on the election makes me wonder whether there have been three major wins:
unions will not be demonised again
fairness in the workplace is not a given
a mantra of economic good times will never be enough to win support (and a side issue is how this claim has been contested so it may finally be acknowledged that the electorate is more politically savvy than the mainstream media give us credit for)
Ok, RGee – well, that will make it doubly interesting if latrobe sneaks home for ALP.
‘Your Rights at Work’ really did a lot of the hard yards, no?
I think Julie Bishop is a poor choice. I hate to say it, but she is just too creepy.
If I were a Lib, I would want to see Nelson (OL) and Robb (Dept) with Turnbull in a position like Shadow Treasurer.
As a Union Thug, I’d love to see Abbott and Dolly take the leadership roles…
@ 354
I meant fairness in the workplace is now a given
Glen possibly because the Nats don’t want to. Why would they do it and put themselves out of power? They would lose complete control of their own party.
Lefty E – Yes.. for 2+ years.
Is a coalition in opposition worthwhile?? Why would Libs want to give the deputy opposition leader position to a party with only 10 members? Besides, the Nats need to be free to develop some seriously rural-focussed policies.
Who are these gnats of which you speak?
What is their purpose?
The National Party ist Kaput!
Yes, Peterm – and I think a wider significance will be the political death of a very shallow neo-liberal notion of “the economy”.
its gotta work for people – not just the big end of town.
Landeryou is suggesting that the Lib Wets have thrown their support behind Turnbull, with the Right throwing their support behind Abbott. Seems like Nelson is going to get squeezed…
The big issue for the Nats is whether to break the Coalition and go it alone. This was an effective tactic for the Nats in Victoria, who survived by going back to being an old-style Country Party while Bracks decimated the Libs.
However, it’s a divisive issue, and could split a party that’s barely big enough to split any more!
Another option is a merger of the conservative parties, which is quite sensible, but merger moves would end up with the right of the Nats and the left of the Libs being violently opposed.
There are no senior Nats left who’d be remotely appealing to the electorate as Leader, or who would have the skills to head the parliamentary party. Truss might make a stopgap, but he’s too old. The one thing he has in his favour is that he’s a Queenslander. If the Nats ever needed a Queenslander to lead them, it’s now.
In short, the Nats are stuffed even more than the Liberals. They rely on the Coalition agreement to stop the Libs taking their seats. And whenever they lose a seat (eg Farrer and Murray), it’s gone forever. Maranoa and Mallee will be the last bastions, and even they could get knocked off by a good local independent one day.
Oh Ho – Glen
Keating stirs the Liberal leadership pot
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/keating-stirs-the-liberal-leadership-pot/2007/11/26/1196036789843.html
Is Landeryou still blogging after last weekend?
Someone should give Keating a full-time talk back show.
Glen,
The reason the Nats won’t merge is because of QLD. Their only bastion of hope of ever being in power.
As I said, the other state branches should start the ball rolling and leave it up to QLD to being last as usual.
The Nats talk the talk of conservatives but walk the walk of socialists
As I said before, the Nats were bloody lucky to hold onto Parkes and Calare. The only thing that saved them was the surprisingly high Labor vote in those electorates (around 25%) when they were running dead, which meant they finished higher than the independents running in those seats.
If the independents had finished higher than Labor, then they would likely have won on the back of Labor and Greens preferences. The Nats primary in both those seats was around 45-47% – not enough to hold on…
Antonio – be interesting to see the ALP invest more in the Country Labor brand.
Always thought that was a good idea. Times are changing outback- with signal issue like climate change cutting across old ideological lines.
I AGREE WITH PAUL J KEATING WTF?????
Well i guess i agree with Mr Recession after all.
Interesting to hear on the news last night that the Libs didn’t have screw-in-ears at the Bennelong count.
They obviously don’t want any arguments about the validity of any ballot paper being claimed as a vote for the ALP as a primary or by way of preference or claim any for the Liberals.
The Rodent obviously wants out at any cost.
Judi Moylan saying that Bishop should be the next leader on 702.
Clearly she hates her guts.
In Bowman, the Labor lead is now down to 55 votes. In Swan, it is down to 42. That said, I’m surprised the Labor vote in Swan has held up this far, given how advanced the count is…
ourassem – you mind stopping with the spam.
It’s a trifecta, Howard, Costello and Vaile dethroned.
Downer will go tomorrow. Abbott after he loses the leadership battle.
You didn’t select Bowman either Swing Lowe, in your seat predictions …
John Howard is Mr Recession, he gave us the biggest recession since the great depression.
It’s victors justice AM just like at Nuremberg, the Tory leadership has faced the drop and they’ve copping it one by one, better to get it out of the way now so that we can get on with rebuilding.
Abbott is a lock for Manager of Opposition Business.
Turnbull if he is to be a successful leader needs time to build personal support, build more politicl skills and hone his rhetoric. At the moment he is totally green and most of the Labor front bench would cream him. He is desireable because he is much moderate and thus palatable to the Australian public – but his time is not now.
Keating sort of supported Julie Bishop.
Swing Lowe @ 364,
Maybe, maybe not re Nelson.
In the end Nelson may be the compromise candidate. Apparently, he is popular with back benchers.
He could be the Jim Hacker of Australian politics.
yes, kina, but keating was surely having a laff.
PS I want Ruddock/ Andrews. aka ‘the Dead Pedant Society’
Matthew Sykes,
The way the count is going, that’s probably a good thing…
Lefty E @ 337
Thats right, YR@W campaigned in Deakin and Corangamite, and also McMillan and Latrobe, another 2 ’safe’ coalition seats on the cusp of falling – if not before this poll is declared then at the next election, following the Rudd Labor government being seen to act on its commitment to repeal serf choices and re-instate workplace rights for ordinary working Australians and their families.
As one of those ordinary Ausie workers, I’m pleased that the union movement has demonstrated how ‘irrelevant’ it is – “NOT”.
Andrews/Macfarlane lol
Still sounds better than
Crean/Macklin lol
384 [Abbott is a lock for Manager of Opposition Business]
That’s the sort of thinking that the Liberal Party needs to keep itself in opposition for the next twenty years. Howard has sapped the Liberal Party of any concept of renewal.
If the right have swung behind Abbott then he will be leader. Turnbull just won’t get the numbers from the wets.
bull butter
Barry, and thats a good sign in general.
Bit of grass roots stuff is exactly what the TU movement needs.
Nah, a nothing job like Manager of Opposition Business would be ideal for Abbott.
He is pure electoral poison as leader or even deputy. It would be completely back to the future.
Glen, what are the numbers ? moderates v conservative ?
Glen,
Is the criteria of who could lead a merger with the Nationals a valid selection point for a leader? That is, if you can’t have an election winner, at least chose an internal reformer? Is there someone in the Libs who could work with Barnaby Joyce?
Otherwise, I agree with Julie Bishop for other reasons. She shores up WA, your best terrain. You also badly need to broaden the Libs appeal to women. Though a younger, smarter one would be much better. Still…
Jesus, don’t ya miss the old PJK – he was a great PM, and his language just always seems to get it right. Agree with him about Julie Bishop – the Libs should put her in, and send a signal to the world that they have changed as a party, that they are modernisers and straighteners – not narrowers.
Glen: “Crean/Macklin lol”
Ok – historic moment. I agree with Glen.
Was there ever a worse deputy than Macklin? Frigging useless. Deadweight. Oxygen depleter. I could go on.
socrates, all the young and smart women are in the ALP.
passthepopcorn
Yes that was my point
The trick for the Libs is to understand why that is so.
I don’t really understand how putting Julie Bishop in would demonstrate they’re modernisers. Just because she’s a woman? Or is it some other policy difference I’m unaware of?
I name the Member for Warringah – can’t wait to hear it.
One of the truest statements ever posted on PB?
Is there any website that splits the Libs into wet/ugly factions? Just interested in the breakdown of the remaining federal members and the alignment of those who lost their seats.
From all accounts Turnbull is not very popular within the party – perhaps the uglies will elect him leader so they can actively undermine and destroy him to get rid of him for good?
Laming is catching up in Bowman, he’s now only 55 votes behind. He is getting nearly 55% of pre-poll votes.
I know they let PJK out of his box earlier this year, but I think he is enjoying this win a bit too much. He is like a predator smelling death from a rotting carcass, and he just wants to make sure there is nothing left of it.
Mind you, I’m enjoying reading his pieces.
401 [socrates, all the young and smart women are in the ALP.]
Bet they are laughing at the liberals of having all this trouble trying to solve the case of the vanishing potential Leader and what should be done about it.
Although Julie Bishop is a bit eccentric, I personally think she’s quite a polished media performer.
I agree, if we put Julie in it would be an experiment and it would be a massive change from Howie so its a possibility.
If we go with Nelson – its for stability
If we go for Abbott – its because Heffs spent the last few days on the phone telling everyone that Julie is baron.
If we go for Malcolm – our best shot will be blown in 2010 and then where to we go from their Alex Hawke lol!
Deputy leadership
Pyne – no thank you!
Robb – zzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Andrews – no please no!
J. Bishop – if she doesnt get leader she should get this we cant afford to lose WA or we will be f’ed.
You can come up with as many potential LNP leaders as you like: they all have baggage. And, as I’ve said before “Who do you trust to lead when they have no leadership experience?” They are stuffed.
does anyone know the number of postal & absentee votes there are in Bennelong ?
The member for Mayo is warned!
The member for O’Connor will remove himself from the chamber under standing orders 4A.
ON SA matters. Kevin Foley and the SA state executive need to be flogged hard over dropping Cornes into Boothby. It was a unmitigated disaster and all the namby, pamby whinging about how hard the media was…. It’s tough for everybody. Harden the f##k up!.
Really pi##ed about this. Mia would have been in paliament if she had been given this seat. Possibly one of the worst sitting memebers to knock off and it wasn’t even close.
Cronyism at it’s worse.
Lefty E,
Totally agree. Macklin is a hack.
One of the issues for the ALP is to conduct some sort of renewal process for the next election. Old-timers and hacks like Macklin, Crean, the Fergusons, Price and Kerr should be retired and some new blood injected into those safe seats.
People like Mia Hanshin and George Williams are the sort of people Labor should have in Parliament. They shouldn’t make the same mistakes as the Coalition and allow the rust to build up on their parliamentary caucus…
What makes you think you’re not already?
412 Interesting point viggop where are the experienced leaders of the Liberal Party?
What a barren, desert their landscape is.
It doesn’t really matter. McKew leads by 2500 votes, and Howard is only getting 52% of the pre-poll votes.
Numbers are looking decent for Labor in McEwen – up by 321 votes, but postals have not been included. Hoping that the numbers hold up here (it’s always good to knock off a sitting Minister)…:-)
I heard 8,000 mentioned somewhere but don’t take that as gospel
Nelson – 11 years in Parliament 6 or more years as Minister
Bishop – 9 years in Parliament 4 years as Minister
Turnbull – 3+ years in Parliament, 2 as Minister
Glen,
No the best will be, ‘I name the Member for Wannon’, political justice for the worst Speaker in recent history.
Where have Ovaries and Shenanigan disappeared to these days…they seem to think they knew how to read the political tea leaves and predict the future. Now they are AWOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!
I’m for Julie. Gosh Pyne.
Ha Hawker without the power of the chair will hardly make a peep in Parliament i reckon.
Mia wanted Sturt because she grew up in the electorate.
The leader of the S.A. Right has personally taken the blame for running a bad campaign. He said he shoudl’ve gone more negative on Southcott’s nothing record.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22819284-5014474,00.html
Will Julie turn up in her dominatrix outfit and tell Ruddy that he has been a naughty boy? So naughtly he got the keys to the Lodge.
He’ll probably resign before the next election.
It looks like Turnbull may rise from the ashes to lead the Libs, they could do a lot worse than him! Abbot maybe?
So if its Turnball versus Abbott…
… a case of embarrassingly rich versus richly embarrassing
Or they could follow the feminist methodolgy of the ALP at state level – pop one of the ladies in to carry the can while the blokes fight out the back for the spoils.
Glen @ 426,
Hawker should resign. The Libs won’t lose the seat in a by-election and there’s gotta be better people around to sit in Parliament.
422 Yes long time there with little to show for it except people sitting around scratching their heads wondering, what now? Not my idea of inspiring leadership.
ShowsOn you can’t have it all.
ha ha, pathological logic! indeed, you’d be hard pressed to think of a more f^^^ed party.
Now that the Liberals are on the left of the chair they can’t get away with that patronising born to rule crap. They’ll actually have to come up with some new ideas that voters actually like.
I understand that, I’m not a Liberal.
Good, more new blood into Parliament for the Tories we’re gonna need it.
If Abbott is the leader ill find it hard voting for the Libs, ill do it, but i won’t like it. I don’t want Abbott as our leader.
Before entering Parliament Julie did Afternoon Talkback (usually lightweight fluff pieces) on 6PR in Perth, hence her good media skills.
ShowsOn
I am not in the Labor Party (or any other) but since there seem to be a few of us in Sturt, we must catch up some time. We seem to agree on a lot here.
Btw, does anyone find it amusing that it is looking more and more likely that Sophie Mirrabella is going to be a Shadow Minister this time around?
Coz that’s got to be the best example of the dearth of talent in the current batch of Liberals in Parliament…
Glen,
At least it’s not going to be Abbott and Costello!
Heather Ridout from the Australian Industry Group on the one hand says Peter Costello was a great economic manager, then on the other hand says the inflation genie is right out of the bottle.
Is it one or the other?
Or is she saying that inflation got out of control some time between John Howard’s concession speech, and Keven Rudd’s victory speech?
Anyone noticed that Mark Vaile resigned?
401
passthepopcorn Says:
“socrates, all the young and smart women are in the ALP.”
Spot on but it is expected given that Labor is a party of progressives.
444 – no one noticed he was ever there!
How can you tell. He never led the party anyway.
Glen
On Abbott, its not just you who won’t like it; a lot of people don’t like him. He’s too antagonistic. He is an attack dog best suited for operating from behind the safety of a (partisan) speakers chair. He won’t rebuild anything. And while not explicitley masogonistic, after his time as Health Minister, I literally don’t know a single adult female who would vote for him.
Dolly has pretty much ruled himself out, with a frankness that I actually admire: http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/26/2101511.htm
“Remember I was many, many years ago – and quite unsuccessfully – was many years ago leader of the opposition, so I’ve kind of done that,” Mr Downer told ABC Radio in Adelaide.
ShowsOn
The share market was up at midday, buoyed by mining stocks. Same cause of prosperity as before. So much for the sky falling.
Abbott would make a good temporary leader to fill in time while they reorganise but electorally he is poison. The best bet for the next election would be Turnbull as leader and Bishop as deputy. They could paint the party as renewed or at least try to.
If Abbott becomes leader of the Libs they will be spending a long time in opposition.
444 [Anyone noticed that Mark Vaile resigned?]
Know anyone under 60 who can take his place?
Vaile was last seen skateboarding into the sunset.
The Libs will sort themselves out.
Matt Price when asked on his death bed about the election said the one thing that will be replayed all the time will be PM Rudd saying the buck stops with me. he comented that that statement will be used by the media and his political rivals for eveything.
“Know anyone under 60 who can take his place?”
Aren’t they all still in Young Nationals?
I am barracking for Brendan Nelson to get the job now
rather than Abbott or Bishop who are are unelectable & would be replaced in 2009
and would be replaced by Turnbull
Abbott could stitch up the Jesuit vote.
On the other hand, I think some would find him as appealing as Latham in terms of a certain brutish quality.
This can’t be right! The unions were going to force Labor to end the mining boom by shutting every mine in the country!
Everyone must listen to Paul Keating’s assessment of the election. It will be added to this page soon:
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/
Kirribilli is again up for sale
… do not know if this is the original ad posted by someone else last last week or if this is a new one…
http://www.domain.com.au/Public/PropertyDetails.aspx?adid=2006832414
This was my prediction about 2 weeks ago and it’s very close.
Note: The labor victory was more a repudiation of Howard and his “toxic” ideals than an acceptance of Rudd.
I’ll be watching Rudd carefully, and too much me tooing with Howard and I’ll only be too happy to stick with a prgressive moderate like Turnbull.
1. According to Nostradamus LNP 61: ALP 87, IND2
Quatrain 34 – Anno Domini – 2nd Millennium
Verse 16:
In the distant southern great land
The princely serpent with wavering tongue shall rise,
The wheelwright’s son of complete ordinariness,
Will vanquish the noveau proletariat – his name : Johward
Verse 17:
For a decade and 1, he will rule unchallenged;
Subservient only to a distant King and Queen of expired empire
He will banish the wretched moor on the water to the desolate land
Denial of world heating with fear and greed he shall rule
With new tax the proletariat will feast on Pork and be happy,
Verse 18
From the rural and oriental Rudvin shall rise with Sun Tzu,
Of similar blandness with difference shall decimate Joward’s forces to 3 score + 1,
He will control the Balded one 180 degrees on weather,
His barren Princess assigned will lance Joward’s heart in Bene-Lon
Held in high esteem, Joward’s legacy tarnished thereafter
Glen, even if Abbott is given the leadership I doubt you’ll get the chance to vote for him as I doubt he’ll last that long. I’d give him 18 months and the writing will be on the wall. In fact, I think that whoever becomes leader will probably not be the one facing the next election as the polling will be disastrous for the Libs for quite some time.
The Nats have to get that gay farmer from Big Brother on if they want to be seen as a youthful party. It would of course wreck the rest of their redneck voter base.
Kim Wilkie increases lead from 44 to 53 in Swan
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-13745-247.htm
Ptobias 449
What do you expect them to do – fall on the ground and grovel, eat dirt? I mean, get real.
yes, kate ellis for PM @ 445, that’s true. i can’t think how any woman with self-respect would associate with that bunch of backward-thinking losers.
turnbull would be a good choice because he would run to win…. i understand the difficulties re 2010, but turnbull is a winner, so he would run to win…. even if he did not get there, it is the right strategy.
two terms strategies are never the right way to go
When I heard the Mad Monk announce his canidature for Liberal I was ROTFLMFAO.
Tony Abbott: “I think there are going to be some tricky problems of party management but I think I have reasonably good people skills.”
I am sure Bernie Banton will give him a good reference attesting to Tony’s people skills. Go Tony ! Leading the Liberals to a greater train wreck than Howard.
Turnbull won’t win in one or even two terms. Really, if you pay attention to him you’ll see he just doesn’t have it.
OH STOP IT!
Now the Liberals are just trying to be funny! W.A. Opposition leader Paul Omodei has endorsed Julie Bishop as leader or deputy leader!
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22822499-29277,00.html
Abbott seems to be saying “sacrifice me – save someone better for 2016″
“that bunch of backward-thinking losers” beat Labor 4 elections in a row and are now despite all the hype only three and a half percent away from taking power back one day. They may not be “losers” for ever. Labor has knocked the beast off it’s feet but it hasn’t killed it.
JULIE JULIE JULIE JULIE JULIE JULIE JULIE JULIE JULIE JULIE (chanting)
Radio Bludger…. Stereo for Pseph-Heads
Don’t think Paulie needs the bananas, Happy. Special guest appearances, as with Alexandra Kirk on ABC radio today and the occasional column in the SMH will suit him just fine, imho. Talk-back overexposure would dilute the potency of his vitriol and dull the acuity of his political hawk eye.
468 Vote1Maxine
Aprt from many other reasons, I’m glad Bernie lived long enough both to get the Hardies settlement and see Saturday night’s result. I hope he enjoyed it.
He has no chance. He will be 60 before he has a real chance, and I don’t think Australians will want to elect a 60 year old when Labor would be moving to another 45 – 50 year old.
At least Turnbull could finance the next Lib campaign all by himself
LTEP, I disagree – he is far more talented than the vast majority, if not all, of the current crop of parliamentarians on both sides…. his resume proves that.
10pse….Turnbull….Mr Rainmaker….Mr Rain-using-taxpayers-money-to-fund-one-of-my-financial-backers-Maker is a winner??? Labor and the opinion polls will batter him all over the parliamentary floor and his party will lovingly kick his bleeding carcass out the door within 18 months…..make it 12.
Marke Vaille STILL doesn’t get it. In his resignation speech he talked about how there is no public debt, but he failed to mention people live on credit more now than ever.
No wonder his mob lost.
470 [W.A. Opposition leader Paul Omodei has endorsed Julie Bishop as leader or deputy leader!]
Isn’t he the man who specialises in seeing the Liberals falling into self – made ditches? How is his 3000 kilometer ditch going? Did it ever get off the ground?
he would be 56 next time not 60, and would be 59 in 2013… not 60. And Rudd would be 56… so three years difference only…. unless you are suggesting Rudd will hand over (forget that) or be rolled after winning the next election (laugable)
It needs to be some one not associated with JWH. Petro Georgiou and Peter Dutton.
415
I completely agree paladin. Mia would have easily won Boothby. It baggers belief that state Labor would pick Nicole as an ALP candidate who admitted to have voted for Howard at the last election!
Speaking of finance, I don’t mean to sink the boot in to Glen or others on line today but, are the Libs broke? There were rumours about their State level finances in Qld even before the campaign. I understand debts lingering from that State campaign were the motive for the alleged printing expense rort involving Laming and others. Now they have just run an expensive campaign, lost, and have few tax payer funded office to hide in. Where do they get cash from now?
I know they are great economic managers but, can they manage their own fiannces?
LTEP you must be PLEASED that your side LOST THE ELECTION
The postal votes will do Wilkie in, unfortunately.
Shows on says
“Everyone must listen to Paul Keating’s assessment of the election. It will be added to this page soon:”
His interview on news radio today was brilliant.
I think the ALP should put him on a retainer to pop-up every so often and continue the revision of the Howard years.
Have you ever talked to a regular person who has been impressed by Malcolm Turnbull? He is a Kim Beazley… too much talk and all woffle. Just wait and see though…
I know plenty of people that were originally impressed by Turnbull… but the more they see of him the less they like.
Julie Bishop
That look of deranged earnestness would unsettle even the good folk out at hillsong. God knows what it would do to the australian electorate. I swear those eyes are revolving!
She’s utterly hopeless. The performance in parliament when she tried to ape the smirk (’you naught boy, you naughty boy’) was the most cringeworthy moment in aust politics that i’d seen since Alexander Downer as leader pouted at Keating across the dispatch box. Her ‘look at me Mr Howard’ attempts to get the cultural wars going in relation to the education curriculum smacked of the actions of a brainless ideologue on the make (remember the maoist line).
Surely the lib gene pool isn’t this shallow….. Maybe it is. If they’re gonna consider Julie then in the interests of fairness, they really should consider Bronwyn Bishop.
Hot diggetty dog, Glen. You are such a TOTAL fan.
Nice kid, Julie, but there’s that “intensity problem” thing. She needs to get it worked on.
485
Socrates – it does help having the Unions give the ALP millions of dollars, we have to fend for ourselves, it will be tough especially since we’re in Opposition. Thankfully we have Malcolm Mr Moneybags.
The thing about Turnbull is that he is exceptionally bright, and importantly is actually a policy thinker – the Libs will need to carve out an agenda, and he is well suited to that task
high farce when tony abbott is saying he’s got good people skills.
paul k, they’re going to need a mega defibrillator to get that beast back up on its feet. they’ll need to get one custom-made, and it’ll take a good 4 terms before it’s available.
Yes Glen, it is hard when you only have Multi-Millionaires and Billionaires to support you.
hahahahahahh Tim Fischer can’t bring himself to endorse either Peter Maguaran or Warren Truss.
Yeah but they are scrooges paul k cmon. You get more money from the Unions than we do from the wealthy.
494
passthepopcorn – correction he said he had ‘reasonable’ people skills (that’s bullsh&t)
LTEP
I don’t think Turnbull is that bad but yes, a lot of people from the Corporate world are less impressive up close than their PR people claim.
That is why I thought it was a pitty in the long term that the Libs lost Brough. He had flaws, and probably badly needs to improve his understanding of social issues. Still, to me he had integrity and ideas and hence potential as a long term leader. Most of the rest seemed to be just followers.
Turnball isn’t likely to get the support of the dominant (neocon) faction. He has seriously pissed them off. He could, however, just buy the Liberal Party and appoint himself leader for life. I’m told they need the cash.
481
What’s wrong with “ditches?”
I’m planning to get one dug from Port Augusta to Lake Ayre.
Why????
hey, on the aec tally site, does the total number of polling booths include postals
Brendan Nelson is officially in according to the Tele
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22822501-5001021,00.html
passthepopcorn,
Sometimes I think you guys learnt nothing in 11 years of Opposition. Just look at the history of both parties when defeated in landslides. The Libs will be competitive within two elections if they can get the right leader. The Labor side are sounding more and more like the Libs did when Fraser first beat Gough. All thinking Fraser would be PM for ever. Also if I had a dollar for every time I’d heard the Libs were finished for good when Hawke became PM I’d be a very wealthy man. I repeat despite the hype you are only three and a half percent away from defeat on TPP.
Paul K
Live in the now. Just enjoy watching the Libs bicker and destroy each other and be happy.
paul k 503
to be fair Libs were in the wilderness for 13 years. that is an eternity in politics as is 11 years. and if you are saying the political wheel will turn again…der
I don’t think so. That’s seperate.
I think Rudd has the potential to be a great PM but we shouldn’t kid ourselves about the Libs. They’re not dead. That’s all I’m saying.
Those wise folks in Bennelong clearly saved themselves another wasted Saturday afternoon:
From the ABC website on Vaile resigning:
“I am here today to announce I will not be a contender for the leadership of the National Party when that takes place.”…
Before the election, Mr Vaile had said he would stay on as leader, regardless of the result.
Well another non-core promise from a coalition leader. Who’d a thunk it?
If no one has already noted, Bankbull’s odds are shortening on Sportingbet, come into 1.22 and Abbott out to 5.50
Of course Bankbull would have a lot of well heeled mates willingly to have a fling on the Rain Man of Wentworth.
Paul k assuming the end of the libs would be arrogant would it not?
Sure we’re f’ed in the a atm but we’ll be back…
The Daily Flute has a swing at the Liberal brawling consequences.
http://dailyflute.com/?p=1328
Paul K
Approx four terms for a govt is standard
Hawke and keating had 5 election victories, Howard 4, Fraser 3, Before that Mezies/holt/Gordon approx 6?.
The only post war govt that got less than 4 terms were Frasers (3) and Whitlam (2).
Australians tend to give their governments a fair run..
Is Caroline Overington now just referred to as “The Slapper”
That sounds familiar, Glen.
Andrew Bolt seems to be the one pushing the “Libs are Dead” thesis, and that there may need to be a new national conservative party.
510 – You have to be back – in their current state there would be no accountability from opposition. Look at some of the state Labor governments, they would benefit from some accountability
[Is Caroline Overington now just referred to as “The Slapper”
Colourful Slapper
glen, i think you should come over to the light side, get some piercings…
paul k, allow us a little gloating. it’s well-deserved. we’re doing it for kevin, ’cause he has the good sense to not do it [publicly] himself. imagine the gloating by the coalition if the rodent had got back in.
Yes i’m for Barnaby Joyce for the nationals and Heartsucker for deputy.
Turnbull and Bishop for libs. You will still lose the next election but claw back seats rather than go further in thec red which is what will happen with any other choice. Even my MIL and wife like Turnbull, and women are good judges of character.
Glen: you mean ‘We’re coming back! We’re coming back!’
hmmm no we may be f’ed in the a but it will be interesting times for the Liberal Party and i intend to watch over all of it closely.
While I understand the coments on average length of governments, I think Bolt has a point. Whitlam was preceded by a recession and departed amid high inflation; Fraser lost after a quite sharp recession in 1983; Keating lost after the “recession we had to have” and withdrawn tax cuts, but Howard had no recesion yet still lost. Clearly, there are other things going on besides the economy.
Who would you vote for as Leader and Deputy Leader, given that there is next to no chance of the first opposition leader after a change of government becoming P.M.
After thinking about it, I think the Libs should go for Nelson.
I think he is an odious twerp who would sell his own grandmother to get ahead, but I think he would hold the line at the next election and they could then shaft him to let Turnbull have a real go the time after that.
If they elect Abbott they are deranged. They would go backwards.
The Nationals should stay out of the coalition and try and be a real rural voice. It’s the only way they can possibly survive. I don’t think it will work, but they are doomed as a separate force if they keep going the way they are going.
I’m interested in Rudd’s front bench. I hope he dumps some of the useless time server oxygen thiefs like Ferguson, M and Macklin. I think Crean should be in the cabinet, because as uninspiring as he is, I think he is competent. Would be a decent Trade minister or something like that.
{[Turnbull won’t win in one or even two terms. Really, if you pay attention to him you’ll see he just doesn’t have it.]
He has no chance. He will be 60 before he has a real chance, and I don’t think Australians will want to elect a 60 year old when Labor would be moving to another 45 – 50 year old.}
Turnbull will only be 56 in 2010. The same age Howard was when he won.
This will be his best chance to become PM. He will run to win, which is what is needed. Two term stratergies are diasters.
I would support Turnbull
You never know what is in the future!
I think the main problem for the liberals is they thought 2004 was all about how wonderfully brilliant they were at running the nation. Of course, the suspicion surrounding Mark Latham’s ability to be prime minister was the principal reason.
Nelson (OL) and Julie Bishop (DL)
A WOMAN will run Australia for the first time in history next week when the new prime minister is overseas.
Labor’s Julia Gillard is deputy prime minister-elect following last Saturday’s federal election which brought up to nine new women into the House of Representatives.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22822470-12377,00.html
Not long until we get our first female GG.
521 It will probably better and more exciting to come back in fifteen years time when the people who are now three (and can’t remember the nightmare 12 year Howard reign) will vote liberal thinking they are a nice clean alternative.
Like many, I want a feel for the way the votes are breaking in the wash of close seats. I have the VTR pages of the AEC open to Close Seats and I’ve checked Declaration Vote Scrutiny Progress, but I’m little the wiser. Any suggestions?
PS: great mood at school today!
My guess is we will have a female govenor general for the first time late next year.
glen, whoever just referred to nelson as an odious twerp was on the money. and julie bishop has those creepy dolls eyes. she looks like she’s on something.
From watching Agenda today, it seems clear that Kroger will never run for Parliament – even if Costello resigns in Higgins. So that’s another potentially good parliamentarian lost for the Liberal party…
I’m surprised to see Ciobo come out on national TV and endorse Turnbull unconditionally. Are the Turbullites trying to send out a message to The Uglies not to mess with their candidate?
WTF?
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/dennisshanahan/index.php/theaustralian/comments/new_pm_on_the_edge_of_greatness
New PM on the edge of greatness by Dennis Shannan
I think the GG thing sticks – they just change their blue ties for red ones!
But Higgins is the seat reserved for the most gutless Liberal in Victoria, making it perfect for Kroger.
McGauran expected to be the new Nats leader:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22822510-29277,00.html
[McGauran expected to be the new Nats leader:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22822510-29277,00.html
THE HOWDY DOODY MAN as a political leader!?
Wow!
what about Kennett ShowsOn lol?
Does anyone know Rudd’s views on a republic? He has already flagged fixed four year terms, which would be a constructive reform. Would be go further? I suspect Paul K would be willing to take the job
@ 484. Not many mistakes, tactically by Labor, in the campaign but this was certainly their biggest. The swing was on for young and old in SA and they allowed an easy ongoing free kick. Missed out a certain seat IMO
She was a hopeless candidate. And yes I did see her in action. She was personable but there is certainly no force of personality. She wasn’t a whole package. Mia, Kate are.
Also, should have also sunk a lot more resources into Grey. That was also there to be taken IMO. Look at the swing 9.75% with absolutely a shoe-string budget
Passthepopcorn
No apologies to glen.
Its never as mild as ‘gloating’ when the libs win. Its full blown abuse.
The day after the 2004 election I had a quick look over at Tim Blair’s blog and it was like a pack of redneck boguns let loose in a whore house. If they could have strung up a labor voter they would have.
Apparently when maxine Mckew was on the Tv on sat night, someone at the liberal function yelled out ‘why don’t you get a face lift you ugly bitch’. Thats pretty standard stuff. George M made a similar observation about the nastiness in lib ranks on the Insiders yesterday.
Ugly stuff that makes left wing blogs look like a tea party by comparison.
Glen,
Has Kennett ever expressed an intention to enter into federal politics? And if so, has he done it recently?
In the Liberal Party’s hour of need, they need strong and upstanding statesmen with impeccable integrity and decency: Where are Ruddock and Andrews when you need them most?
Socrates
There is a lot of bullsh*t about the economic good times, article in the Sun-Herald yesterday said that for people to eat properly and healthy would cost @ $250 pw on average wage of $690. Also said that food had gone up twice the rate of inflation and frsh food higher again.
Add petrol prices, rents/ interest rates to that and there is a lot of people hurting in this marvellous economy of ours.
Gillard said labors will first concentrate on industrial relations, cost of living and climate change. They know that there is a problem out there and the bull that was families have never been better off.
S
I agree on the GG – I don’t want them to swap from painfully pro-Liberal to painfully pro-Labor either. Rudd will make mistakes and we ought to hear about them.
By comparison, just because the SMH has criticised Howard, it didn’t stop them bagging Bob Carr, Carl Skully and the NSW Labor right crew, as they should have. Hence I still buy their paper. Earth to Oz: I’d like some journalism with my fish-wrap thanks.
I agree with your analysis on Boothby Paladin, but not on Grey. I think there were a stack of votes to be won back in Grey in the iron triangle towns (some horrific swings against the ALP in Whyalla in 2004), but after that it was always hard to see where the rest of the labor votes were going to come from. The margin is probably now back to its more natural state.
Neither Nicole Cornes nor Mia Handshin was ever going to win (because of the filthy rich at the southern end of Sturt and the eastern end of Boothby). Internal Labor polls before the election showed they were ahead in both seats, with Cornes the more likely to win. She did raise a lot of money personally, but her minders stuffed her up from the start. Nevertheless the Libs were forced to focus on these two seats, to the detriment of their campaigns elsewhere. Robotic phone calls from John Howard flooded Boothby. Christopher Pyne used a similar technique in Sturt.
Labor’s vote in Adelaide was not quite as good as expected, except in Makin. It was disappointing in Boothby and Kingston. It was OK in Mayo and soared in the country seats of Grey and Barker.
Petrol is at $1.40/lt in Melbourne and rising. How will the PM fix this?
Socrates: He is a republican, but he doesn’t see it as a first term agenda. It’s ashame as it needs momentum. Keating gave it momentum but Howard derailed it.
BTW, I’m looking at setting up a website as an online forum to promote the republic debate. Stay tuned.
Arbie Jay
I totally agree, especially for those struggling with large mortgages. But I think that is a product of the way the cake is being distributed. My point was simply that the cake wasn’t about to shrink, just because Labor took charge.
Chalamber @ 530
Top line shows how many votes are to be counted that were not submitted at the polling booths.
The bottom line shows how many of those have been counted.
McGauran as Nats leader.
Are the Nats crazy?
McGauran is nothing more than a rich, well-schooled git from the rural aristocracy.
A great choice if they are seeking to go backwards into the future.
Then again who else have the Nats got? Kay Hull?
507 paul k
The Libs could be in opposition for a very long time. It will take a quite some time for them to understand what happened on Saturday.
This from the Rodent Servant:
“This morning Liberal Senator George Brandis said he did not regard Labor as having a mandate to impliment changes to the Coalition’s current industrial legislation.”
Nice, from Guy Rundle in Crikey;
…And in matters of this sort, the symbolic is as important as the real. I mean, come on. If the real deal happens, and John Howard is replaced by a FEMALE, LABOR, ABC JOURNALIST, how could you not see, in her sparkling eyes, a reflection of the light on the hill?
*sigh*
Who else have they got? Warren Truss is the only alternative, and he sounds deader than Ruddock.
It’s Howdy Doody McGuaran, or nobody:
http://files.intellisite.com/3/9/3/4/5.jpg
http://www.maff.gov.au/gallery/McGauran/IMG_2985.JPG
Poor Karen Chijoff. Boo Hoo. Give her & Jackie Kelly Labor Party Membership.
http://www.liberal.org.au/locallib/karenchijoff/
“My guess is we will have a female govenor general for the first time late next year.”
Any guesses? Mary Gaudron? Lowitja O’Donoghue?
Labor lead in McEwen down by 10 to 311 votes. The Labor vote seems to be holding up decently – but I don’t know how many postals are expected there…
#557
Jennifer Hawkins
Martin B @ 557,
Gaudron won’t be the first female GG. I believe she is very sick – cancer, from my recollection. Marie Bashir (or Dawn Fraser, for that matter) may be better bets…
@ 546. I agree to a point, but looking at some of those Whyalla & Pt Augusta booths I still reckon the Lib vote is a little inflated. Similarly with Pt Lincoln (I know there’s some very rich fishing people there, but still…).
If it reached nearly 10% without any resources a little nudging might have got it in the bag. remember Howie got down on bended knee to try and keep the sitting member from retiring. Must have been something in it…?
I wonder if that is just posturing from Brandis? Couldn’t Labor pass legislation with retiring Democrats, Greens, and Fielding now or Labor, Grens, Xenophon and Fielding in the new Senate? Xenephon and the Greens would not defend Workchoices. I can’t imagine Fielding risking Double Disolution extinction to vote to keep Workchoices either. He is on less than 2% of the vote and only got elected by a mathematical accident last time.
yes, sean @ 541, i wildly understated. you’re right, it would have been putrid.
i’ve looked at tim blair’s blog – (i met him just before the 2004 election – didn’t set out to, though!) – once or twice but decided life’s way too short to waste any of it on that kind of filth.
Whoever it is, hopefully it will be our last Govenor General.
Best to stick to military types for GG, know how to keep their mouth’s shut.
“I believe she is very sick – cancer, from my recollection”
Oh I didn’t know that. That’s sad.
No way – its President or nothing
)
Paladin: The libs were obviously worried about Grey; Nick Minchin said as much on the ABC coverage on Saturday night. I think it was probably indicative of the full-scale panic they viewed SA with. I guess with Boothby and Sturt in the firing line, the resources can only go so far.
Just to reminisce I reread a few comments from the Friday “Newspoll: 52-48″ post……..1500 comments and 90% of them worried about the results, who would have though that this is where we would be today?…..disusing who out of Trunbul, Nelson and Abott???? will lead up the liberal party and what chance they will have to win in 2 elections time……..it weird how things have changed so drastically in 3 days…..how the mighty have fallen, how people who at least appeared so powerful and so in control just a few days ago are now descending into a rabble….
There are heaps ALP leaders who have quit or been rolled, denying electors chance to come after them with the baseball bat:
Hawke, Carr, Bracks, Beattie, Martin, Wran.
But I can’t think of a single example since Askin where the Tories have done the same. Maybe Joh got rolled in the party room, or was he voted out? Seems once a Tory leader is voted in it’s up to the electors to get him out, he won’t resign gracefully, and their isn’t the internal discipline to jettison a failing leader.
Seems to be a hell of a competitve advantage that the ALP is occosioanlly able to renew like that.
Are anybodies groceries cheaper yet? Lol, lol, lol.
In polls the absurd measurement of who is a better economic manager means nothing! The only measure that counts is preffered PM.
Good political parties know when their leaders are politically dead.
George Colbran has a lead of 392 votes in Herbert. The problem here will be the military on deployment and other postal votes.
For Maxine “the Magnificent” McKew – the Hero of Election 2007. She chose Everest and she F***** climbed it:
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=pvvSQjqPDNQ
Joh was eventually rolled by the Nats in Qld
Drew
Good points on Libeal leaders. I think Joh was voted out by his party room – was Ahern the National leader beaten by Goss? I think Bill Gunn was the deputy. But he was beaten internally so yes, the Qld Nats could see the writing on the wall.
Brandis better pull his head in. He’s in deep trouble if he keeps that attitude up.
I don’t know if only military types pass the ‘keep your mouth shut’ test, but I don’t think Dawn Fraser does.
Bashir’s current term in NSW goes until 2012 so she’d have to be headhunted by Rudd
@ 545 Disgaree. Kate Ellis did really well and record a 6.7% swing to her. That’s got to be up there with the swings recorded for SITTING Labor members.
Last time (2004) there were 6798 postal votes, so expect over 7000 this time, perhaps 7400, since the electoral roll has increased by 8 or 9%. It went 60:40 to the Liberals last time. The swing was about 6.6% this time, so expect about 54:46 to the Libs in the postal vote this time. McEwen will probably go to the Libs by a few hundred votes.
546 [Petrol is at $1.40/lt in Melbourne and rising. How will the PM fix this?]
By refusing to govern in the way that Howard and Costello have left us this legacy. He will focus on having a low inflation and low interest rate economy unlike the Treasurer and PM who has just been turfed out of their jobs for failing in these important economic areas.
“was Ahern the National leader beaten by Goss”
Russell Cooper, who rolled Ahern.
Paladin,
Kate Ellis did do well in Adelaide. However, the expectation was that she would get a swing of 10%+. That’s why the 6.7% swing looks small…
Ahh yes it’s coming back – Joh was rolled – but only after the Fitzgerald Royal commission came sniffing.
Even an agrarian socialist could see that writing on the wall.
Was the swing in Eden – Monaro indicative of the National swing?
Ahern was rolled by Cooper after a very short time as premier. Cooper was the choice of the Nationals old guard. He was then flattened by Goss a few short months later. I’m guessing the Nats will never again rule Qld. The only hope for the coalition forces her is for the Libs to become the dominant party…but I wouldn’t hold my breath.
Herbert will go right down to the wire.
48- not sure John, but tbf he hasn’t been sworn in yet.
Nevertheless I went into my kids’ kindy class this morning and lo and behold, it was raining computers!!
BTW, your comments earlier today after a tough loss were very gracious and a credit to you.
Well played sir.
JofM,
The swing in E-M is currently at 7.4%. The current national swing is 6%.
The 2 Coalition leaders in Q’LD are not inspiring
If we’re honest, quite a few of those close seats seem more than likely to go to the liberals after the postals have been counted. Anything less than a 500 vote lead would be pretty ropey I would think. Robertson and Solomon are the only ones I’d be confident of. I’d say Bowman and Swan are gone with less than a 100 vote lead.
I wonder if the union effort on absentee votes will save a couple of tight labor seats? I think there were a record number of people voting in other countries.
Eden-Monaro swing was 7.4%, NSW swing was 6.4%, National 6.0%.
NeilBris
Didn’t the Qld Nats have a lot fo semi-rural/semi-urban fringe seats in Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast? Now that those areas are basically cities their natural base must be shrinking.
Cheers
581. I (and Kate I would expect) will take that any day
Never believed the 13.5% swing rubbish the Tiser was peddling anyway. Adelaide is a very diverse electorate and it’s a massive swing in my book.
Bowman is still looking good for Labor. In 2007 postal votes weren’t that strong for the Liberals. Add the current swing to the 2004 postal vote, and Labor could get more than 50% of the postals.
can not believe Abbott thought he could win…..he is un-electabe to most women
Ron, the Qld coalition is a mess. The Nats leader is a bigotted, red neck and the Libs leader a buffoon. They’re broke and can’t attract recruits. They’ve been in the wilderness for nearly a decade and will continue to be for a very long time.
#584
Jho didn’t even get Dr Flogg to mc the Lib launch…..shite get the local mayor hahahaha
I’d be very wary of reading the 2004 postal split as rote for this years. More than likely the postals this time around will reflect the greater swing in that electorate, and then some.
Expect all of the current Labor swing numbers to go down by a bit as postal votes are counted.
Flegg has come out in support of a Lib-Nat merger. (If the parties agree – tosser).
Socrates. Yes in the 80’s the Nats actually had a 6pack of Gold Coast seats and even had a couple in the Brisbane metro area. At that time the ALP was a small infighting rump. The Nats will never hold urban electorates again and with the rural sector depopulating their natural base is shrinking. I’m really not sure how the conservatives will ever mount a challenge to the ALP up here. Even as an ALP voter I can see that this isn’t good for democracy or good governance.
I reckon Liberals should focus on the states – god knows the NSW dilemma government is rotten to the core, and now voters don’t need protection from workchoices Iemma just needs an opposition with a pulse to knock him over.
Brough for QLD opposition leader.
They need a power base.
So of the 7 undecided seats, does anyon know how many Labor expects to win, say Socrates hopefully, sitting on a prediction of 87 seats?
546 John – come on John, you know Rudd said he didn’t have a magic bullet but would try to do something about the cost of living problems.
588 [The 2 Coalition leaders in Q’LD are not inspiring]
Both are under threat from their nonperformance since the last election Seeney from Springborg and Flegg from Nicholls. More a matter of when than if by the way things are shaping up.
I’ve heard Novemeber elections tend to mean a higher than normal number of students in the postal votes.
As this election was just after Uni exams, there’ll be plenty of students’ votes in there.
Have we seen many days like today?
1. Clare Martin & her deputy resign.
2. Nat’s leader resigns
3. Fall out from Costello refusing the poisoned chalice and the school yard bullies lining up for a showdown for the scraps of defeat.
Heady days my fiends. Heady days.
7.30 report will need to run for 2 hours tonight
Share market up 2%
We’re coming back!
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,22821755-31037,00.html
In regards to the potal vote, it all depends on whether the party assigned the expensive postal vote campaign or the cheap one. I remember a state seat that we were leading but lost on postal votes. we had the cheap campaign and despite losing which was redistributed favourin the libs, the expensive campaign hepled us
Yes, Dario, you should add the swing numbers to the postal votes. So, for example, if in 2004 the postal vote was 60:40 to the Libs, and in this election there was an 8% swing to Labor, then expect 52:48 to the Libs. Of course, this will ignore the realities on the ground, e.g. maybe there was a push this election to increase the postal vote in seat X.
Neilbris
Yes, I have noticed that trend, with Beatty winnig even after that aweful hospitals mess. That is exactly why I hope the Libs chose leaders wisely and have tried to be constructive in my comments on that subject . I don’t want them to be so weak in parliament that an otherwise very good Labor team gets careless and eventually out of touch. Nobody is imune to the laws of human nature.
Socrates, I’m expecting 86 seats, maybe 85, maybe 87.
Socrates: If Labor win 4 of the 7 undecided I think that would be a pretty good achievement.
Currently ALP leads:
Swan 53
Bowman 55
McEwen 311
LaTrobe 378
Dickson 389
Herbert 392
Solomon 723
(Robertson 914)
I’m assuming you’re calling Robertson, so I reckon Solomon is the only other one I’d be confident about.
Ijon
Thanks. Go 87! I’d love to see a cricket tragic lose by a number that is a bd cricketing omen.
Socrates: My pessimism comes from watching Steve Georganas twice get rolled on postals in Hindmarsh after an approximate 600 vote lead after election night.
I wonder what their new name might be? The ‘Laterals’, or the Naberals’? Maybe the ‘F**kwit Right Wing Semi-agrarian Scum’ might be more apt
Socrates: If Labor win 4 of the 7 undecided I think that would be a pretty good achievement.
Glad we were not relying on ANY of these 7 seats to win the election ??
RUawake, have you got a link for the Flegg story, saw Springborg on about it last night but haven’t seen the Flegg quote?
Socrates, the problem for the Qld conservatives is they have a very small pool to choose from. It’s very hard to choose wisely when your most wise choice will still be a poor one. Having said that I thing Springborg is a decent enough option who will at least minimise the losses. He wants an amalgamated conservative party, but if you were the Qld Libs all this would mean is that your party would be swallowed by the Qld Nats. The reality is that the Nats and Libs in Qld now have very little in common other than a desire to beat the ALP. Thats not enough of a reason to amalgamate. Urban Libs would be disenfranchised in such an arrangement and the ALP would govern till the Second Coming.
PJK for President @565
I’ll vote for that!
Re Brandis and work choices, I wonder whether that is more a party internal signal rather then real opposition.
It will be interesting what sort of an L (plate) will be painted on the name of HMS L/liberal.
Liberal now leading in LaTrobe
Wilkie is now increasing his lead in Swan
Springborg has gone back to farming – Seeney is the Nat leader in Qld. The Borg wanted the parties to merge but the Libs disagreed.
steve – no link just heard it on ABC radio Brissy.
I really hope Rodney Cocks gets up in La Trobe. I sent an email to smarmy deadhead Jason Wood a month ago about Workchoices and got a letter back declaring the incredible benefits to Australia re Workchoices……..smartarse p#ick
I wonder how long Abbott will stay in the leadership race???
Perhaps his pitch will be “We will decide who is destroyed as the first opposition leader after a landslide, and the circumstances in which they are crushed”?
Or just maybe:
“Go For Grouch!”
Very unlikely, Wood is getting 65% of the postal votes.
Petter Dutton looks gone in Dickson.
Couldn’t happen to a nicer smug idiot.
623 [Springborg has gone back to farming]
Like every tory in the country at present, the only farming Springborg is doing is the groundwork for a leadership challenge to Seeney. Springborg has become far more vocal over the last few months as Seeney struggles to keep on his game.
The New York Times take on the ALP victory:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/26/world/asia/26australia.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
BV,
Actually Abbott’s pitch was that he has the “people skills’ required for the Opp. Leadership. Which only goes to show that he is, tragically, unhinged.
Shows On, any more news on Wilkie?
nooooooooooo Dutton!!!!
Wilkie will lose on postals…
Bowman is very close Lammington could get across the line
Geez Steve, Seeney was NEVER on his game. He is such an ill informed red neck that it’s embarrassing. Springborg is all they’ve got and he is already a 2 time loser.
Wilkie now up by 64 votes. His vote is increasing as the numbers come in – good sign for him.
La Trobe looks gone. Bowman unlikely. Macarthur is gone. I still hold out hope for McEwen, Dickson and Herbert.
The only people skills that Abbott has is the uncanny ability to inspire revulsion and disgust in people by the mere mention of his name.
I want him to take on the Liberal Party leadership, though, just to see Gillard, Roxon, Wong etc. whip his ass in parliament. It should be extremely entertaining.
Of course. Are they calling such talents “people skills” in Guantanamo Bay these days? Wonders never cease.
Is Australia a signatory on the International Convention Against People Skills?
Brendan Nelson is having a go.
The man is a spiv.
He’s like the poor man’s Malcolm Turnbull from 12 years ago.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/26/2101752.htm
How Laming survives but Brough doesn’t is one of the great mysteries of this election. Oh well…
I wouldn’t bet the house on that, Glen.
Especially considering that he got a big majority on the provisionals in 2004, and had a well drilled postal campaign this time.
Could go either way still.
629
“Under Mr. Rudd, the most notable foreign policy changes will be on the environment, nuclear issues and Iraq, said a veteran Australian diplomat, who requested anonymity because he feared that Mr. Rudd would not look kindly on a public servant speaking out on foreign policy.”
umm.. not feared..its a fact!
its not his fricken job to and he knows it no matter who runs the country.
It’s only fair that the Libs elect Abbott as leader – we gave them Latham. It’s our turn to point and laugh!
Swing Lowe id swap them if Lamington survives for sure.
The problem with poor old Bishop is that she’s as dumb as a post and has an unbecoming “rabbit-in-your-headlights” stare when ‘performing’ on TV.
But she’d be a good stop-gap leader to take a beating in 2010.
Rudd will say sorry early:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/26/2101780.htm
So when is Rudd phoning Osama to tell him we’re surrendering in Iraq?
Amazing – not a vote counted in Bennelong today. What a joke!
639 Laming by not being a minister in the Howard Government probably did less stupid things than Brough who was given free reign and ran amok.
645
Dr Good – he may say sorry but im not.
#646
So when is JHo’s two sons joining the ADF and heading off to Iraq?
78 vote margin in Swan for Labor – Wilkie looking better and better…
Add another year in opposition for arrogance.
SL in Swan only 77.30% of the vote has been counted and you’re happy about a 78 vote lead lol.
Glen I hear there’s plenty of work for you in Iraq at the moment. Why not join the forces and help out? Or perhaps work with an NGO?
Yeah… Didn’t think so….
Dario 617
Why not just call the Liberal – National merger the Conservative Union? Slogan: “Your Right-Wingers at work”.
Other helpful choices:
The Unholy Alliance, Marriage of Convenience, Australian Conservatives (AusCon for short), NeoCon Party, Road to Serfdom Party, The Very Silly Party, Agrarian Fascism Party, The Old Money Party, City Country Coalition Party (CCCP hehehe).
ROTFL
The Bolshification of the North Shore in Sydney continues!
2004 election – ALP wins only one booth in Bradfield & Berowra, zero in North Sydney
2007 election – ALP wins six booths in Berowra & Bradfield (Chatswood in Bradfield was a narrow miss by 0.3%), wins five in North Sydney. It appears they have won the majority of booths in Hornsby (spread over Bradfield & Berowra).
It’s not the 78 vote lead I’m happy about – it’s the fact that it’s increased from 39 votes this time yesterday. I’m hoping that the trend holds up in the postals – they are, after all, supposed to favour the incumbent…
The London Times thinks we’re about to sack the Queen:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/article2943486.ece
Seeing how Iraq is doing so much better JR…yet even you would say its lost, take one less year in government for arrogance.
Forget Swan, postals haven’t been counted and *will* favour Liberals or you can call me Susan.
This Iraq talk is insanity. Surely our troops have more important peacekeeping work to do at home, with the Great Liberal War breaking out on our own shores?!
And here’s a transcrip of that wonderful interview with Keating on the World Today
http://www.abc.net.au/cgi-bin/common/printfriendly.pl?http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2007/s2101252.htm
Swing Lowe, that must be the recount of the booth votes – because the additional vote counter hasn’t moved for hours.
Elsewhere, I think Julie Bishop would be looking good for the deputy Liberal leadership. Not only does it place a WA person in a prominent position after their relatively good result here, but it would be a perfect “me-too” riposte to Julia Gillard. Never mind that her presentation needs a LOT of work…
Spoertingbet has Abbott moving out and Nelson moving in:
Malcolm Turnbull
1.24
Tony Abbott
7.00
Dr Brendan Nelson
4.00
Any Other Candidate
13.00
Julie Bishop
17.00
Alexander Downer
34.00
Danna Vale
34.00
Joyce a sense of reason:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22822570-29277,00.html
Swan is still a good chance. Wilke is ahead by about 80.
Postals have not been counted and may favour Libs by 100
(if same as last election).
But absents have also not been counted and last time favoured
Wilkie by 20.
And provisionals have not been counted and last time favoured
Wilkie by 137.
That would give it to Kim.
Will the ALP sell the Mersy back to the Tasi government?
All Hail Mark Riley he’s said Julie Bishop will have the deputy leadership if she wants it. Cmon Julie show those eyes for the media so we can know you’re fair dinkum about being deputy leader.
The NYT article is interesting. They clearly expect Carr or Beazley to be the next Ambassador to the US.
Problem is that Carr ruled that out on LL last week, whilst Beazley just got a new job at UWA today. That said, it seems likely that Beazley will get the gig – perhaps the UWA job was just to kill some time before the appointment occurs.
If Andrew Robb is in the leadership/deputy race, the other contenders would want to make sure any websites are updated so as not to show any previously held positions.
Once that guys gets near Google, there’s no stopping him!
Wahts all the fuss about being deputy opposition leader after an election loss?
Bigger office maybe.
In the WA Labor held seat of Swan, the flow of votes is closer, with the Liberals Steve Irons picking up 889 additional primary votes to sitting member Kim Wilkie’s 797, reducing Labor’s wafer thin margin to 53 votes, once preferences are distributed.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22822567-601,00.html
Queensland Libs call for renewal. Looks like Nicholls is getting ready to stike at Flegg.
The next generation of Liberal politicians in Queensland has called on the party to “pull up its socks” and embrace change.
Saturday’s stunning electoral defeat has left the federal Liberals with a maximum of 10 seats in Queensland and Brisbane Lord Mayor Campbell Newman as the most senior elected Liberal in the country.
State MP Tim Nicholls echoed the call of federal member for Ryan Michael Johnson for the party to refresh and renew in a bid to turn around its dismal state and federal fortunes.
With 78.6 per cent of the vote counted in the weekend’s federal poll, the Liberals have lost seven seats to the ALP in Queensland and another three are expected to go in the coming weeks.
The party is in equally bad shape at a state level, holding just eight of the Queensland Parliament’s 89 seats.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/queensland-libs-need-a-change/2007/11/26/1196036798188.html
We turned down a UN request to do peace keeping in Dafur because of Iraq. If we get out of Iraq we can do some real peace keeping duty instead of just providing Bush with political cover.
Thankyou ViggoP @ 549.
Why dont the French, Germans or Italians send troops to Darfur they aren’t heavily involved in Afghanistan those bludgers?
Paul K, I assume you noted the humour in the remainder of my post?!
Less than half of the pre-poll vote has been counted in Swan.
Glen @ 646
I am a Vietnam Vet, who lost mates who were killed and maimed, and you have finally written a post which it’s impossible for me not to reply. To send anyone into harm’s way on lies and false intelligence is one of the worst acts that a government can perpetrate upon its military.
You know full well that Saddam Hussein, as thoroughly evil as he was, had nothing to do with the 9/11 American attacks or with Osamba Bin Laden’s people.
You know full well that by our invasion of Iraq, the Coalition of the Willing not only diverted precious military sources away from seeking out and killing or capturing Bin Laden, but created a new recruitment and resource base in Iraq for Bin Laden and his allies.
I implore you to cease any further comment about Iraq war. From what I’ve read of your posts, normally you are a decent bloke with a good sense of humour, so please let go of this line of satire and avoid the acrimony it would generate, okay?
Ruawake, it has finally dawned why Flegg would suddenly embrace amalgamation, that way he keeps Nicholls at bay. The Nats have the numbers to be the leader of the amalgamated party in Queensland.
Rattus Rattus bites again.
He’s reversed the position on SerfChoices – It wasn’t his policy after all.
Who will he bite next?
And overall in Swan there has been a slight swing in the ordinary vote against Labor (-0.17%).
Ok Hemingway you are most wise, i shall refrain from comment on Iraq i know how the left dislikes my views on it and all it does is stir up a hornets nest.
To each his own. I respect your position, though i may not entirely approve of it.
Glen,
Australia has lost 4 soldiers in Afghanistan. Those bludgers you are referring to have lost 48 soldiers or 12 times our causalities.
On the other hand, there seems to be a good swing to Labor in Swan pre-polls so far. I give up.
I did BV. I quoted you but I was reacting to Glen usual dumb and ill informed comments about the War.
Ijon Tichy, let’s just agree it’s on a knife edge…
If Glen wants to make a difference in Iraq, here’s where he can sign up, could be there by the end of the week.
http://www.blackwaterusa.com/
Glen, I sincerely appreciate your accepting my request. Obviously, you are the decent bloke that I thought you were. All the best,mate.
“The Bolshification of the North Shore in Sydney continues!”
The Hills District is getting even more bolshie as well. In the seat of Parramatta, Carlingford booths are about 55/45 Labor, a 16% swing in Baulkham Hills (maybe attributed to the polarising force known as the Alex Hawke affect). The only booths lost in Parramatta were Oatlands and North Parramatta, and the redistributed territory in Winston Hills, Kings Langley and North Rocks. At the same time coupled with double-digit swings in Northmead, Toongabbie, Blacktown, Lalor Park (well almost 9.93%) and Seven Hills, would suggest Labor got a lot of its base vote back, and is a very strong position in three years time. On this info Julie Owens has done remarkably well, the biggest swing out of all the Labor marginals.
So what are everone’s predictions on the Liberal Cream Team.
For me, it will be Nelson and Robb.
Abbott will play kingmaker. Robb will get the nod because he is a backroom machine man and has no propspects of being leader. It also preserves the Melbourne/Sydney sharing of power.
79.70% counted in McEwen, Fran Bailey ahead on 50.31%, still close but better to be ahead.
And for the Tories who thought the Future Fund was a good idea – here’s what the real thing is capable of:
China whispers, Rio soars
http://business.smh.com.au/china-whispers-rio-soars/20071126-1cti.html
For the sheer delicious irony please chose Nelson.
At least then the Opposition will have a leader who was once a union boss, unlike Labor.
Nelson
Turnbull
Abbott
Who is the odd man out? Two of the above have admitted to voting for Labor in the past.
Out of Abbott, Nelson and Turnbull, I personally would advise non of the above. I know he is no spring chicken. But i say give John Hewson a by election. May i recomend Berowa? I also think Ian Macfarlane should not be overlooked for the depty leadership, if they want to rebuild to counter the parochial Rudd-Swan Queenslander vote. He was also a CABINET minister but with less baggage than many of his cabinet collegues(tho too much to be leader). Even if Dutton got back in i think he would be a bad choice. Same with that winger Pyne. Bishop Too would be a good deputy leader for electability and in fact would prob be a preferable opposition leader than Abbott or Nelson. The libs do need to counter the large swing away of female voters. With one of those combinations even i would consider voting for them.
But as an Alp leaning man I would love to see Abbott as leader. I honestly believe he could beat Dowenr for shortest time as a serious opposition leader. Many women dont like him and more secular liberals arnt big on him either. Recipe for disaster.
Yep, postals just came in McEwen and they’re running 62/38 in favour of Bailey. That looks gone too.
In La Trobe, postals are running 65/35 in favour of the Libs. There’s now a pretty decent chance that Labor could lose all of the ‘close’ seats on postals…
Nelson was an ALP member:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/the-evolution-of-brendan-nelson/2005/12/22/1135032135726.html
If you are going to look for Parliamentary outsiders to lead the Libs don’t forget Andrew Bolt or our favorite Piers Ackerman.
Ian Macfarlane the head of the Greenhouse Mafia. Har ha de har ha.
Interesting article by Ross Gittins in today’s SMH (I haven’t got the time to trawl back through several pages of leftist idiocy to see if someone’s already mentioned it). Here’s an excerpt:
“This is a bad election for Kevin Rudd to win…the chances of a recession occurring sometime during his reign are high – almost guaranteed. Worse, the chances of a recession in the next three years are high.
…[S]hould the recession occur during his first term it’s easy to see Mr Rudd being dispatched at the first opportunity.
…Rudd has taken charge at a point where most of the nice aspects of the boom have passed and we’re on to the nasty bit: the regular rate rises, which get progressively more unpopular.”
Looks like all the Libs have to do is stay united, bide their time, and they’ll be back in their rightful place – the Treasury benches, natch – before too long.
Tony Abbott has admitted he voted for Barry Unsworth in a NSW election.
Steven Kaye,
Did you see the collapse and panic in the Share Market today, just like you predicted? No?
Steven Kaye
Rio Tinto just announced they expected the demand for Iron Ore will triple in the next 3 years.
Ross Gittens is a dill.
And if it does happen Rudd can say ‘didn’t i tell you the libs pissed it all up against the wall”
Yes, because of his impressive record, in the event of an economic catastrophe, the voters will run back to opposition leader… Costello?
Bahahahahaa!!!
@701
The article is saying that the ALP may be blamed for a possible cyclical downturn in the (International) economy.
Since Costello warned us all of the upcoming “economic tsunami”, I think most people will realise that it is due to international factors.
Costello gave the ALP a “Get Out Of Jail Free” card on this one.
Sorry, red wombat. The electorate will always associate the Coalition with superior economic management. When inflation, interest rates and unemployment start to rise they’ll flock back to them and quickly forget all the crap about Kyoto and broadband.
Steven Kaye: If we head into recession its entirely the fault of the Liberals.
But never mind, with the entire leadership of the Liberals decimated, they will soon follow the path of the Democrats into oblivion.
Good riddance to you and any other like minded morons.
Swing Lowe @ #697
It looks like they haven’t started counting Absentees yet. Hopefully they will favour Labor.
Somebody on here before (LTEP)? suggested that Turnbull was in the same class as Beazley – all bluff and no traction.
Give me a break – Turnbull has not the hint of a toenail’s clipping of Beazley’s genorosity of spirit – how you could compare the two is bullshit
Brendan, Alexander or Tony for L/eader of the L/iberals!
Any one of these have the skills to keep The Evil Doers out of power and in the political desert for the best part of a generation.
As for Malcolm, well he is just another nasty spiv. He might have a go at being PM some time in the early 2020s.By which time he will be just another twisted old cricket loving bastard like Winston.
Just desserts. Just deserts.
Steven Kaye, interesting to see you haven’t lost any of your arrogance and born to rule attitude despite being absolutely electorally thumped by a good million or so votes. Unfortunately for you, the Coalition is showing anything but unity, they’re jumping like rats from a sinking ship – Costello has shown us all he doesn’t have the ticker to be opposition leader, let alone PM, Downer’s been in the game long enough to know that it’s a poisoned chalice and has said as much, Vaile has also jumped ship and rejected the Libs (we’ll see how long the Coalition lasts) and Turnbull has slagged off the ex-government’s Kyoto policy already, and he wants to be leader…and it’s been less than 48 hours since they lost the election…who knows where they’ll be in 3 years time….
Steven Kaye, you’re swinging after the bell mate.
Unless the economy implodes under Rudd, the Liberals have no chance of winning an election for many years. With Howard and Costello out of the picture they will have no-one with the experience to manage a trillion dollar economy. And we know how important experience is to the Liberals – they have told us often enough during the campaign.
As for Swan, its not over until its over. Kim has won it before on a handful of votes.
Regarding Ross Gittins- I think he ought to have applied some micro economics to his own self. He ought to have got out more & then might not have been diagnosed with diabetes .
He has spent decades telling us how bad its going toget he forgot tolookat himself.
See Vaille on the ABC news nearly got blubbery…..Hockey Sat night, Costello yesterday……soft you know whats.
ruawake Says:
November 26th, 2007 at 6:10 pm
Wahts all the fuss about being deputy opposition leader after an election loss?
The biggest advantage is that you get a bigger staff, which means you have more people to help keep you from making a fool of yourself.
First shot tonight on the 7.30 Report is going to be of Big Red rolling on the floor p#ssing himself laughing.
Big Red “WTF Happened?”
“701
Steven Kaye Says:
November 26th, 2007 at 6:46 pm
Looks like all the Libs have to do is stay united, bide their time, and they’ll be back in their rightful place – the Treasury benches, natch – before too long.”
It doesn’t surprise me that you’d believe that, as you’re both politically and economically illiterate. But if you can put your spite-filled prejudices aside for one moment, and pause from relishing the idea of economic disaster befalling your fellow Australians simply because they had the cheek to vote for the other side, you might want to think on this: if it were so likely that the Libs would be back on the Treasury benches in no time, why did that spineless lazy blowhard Costello bale out at the first instance? Three years surely isn’t so long to wait for the Liberal Party’s very own jilted bride par excellence, who was left waiting for his big day for nearly a decade by Cunning John.
Go ahead and delude yourself with thoughts of a quick return, just as you and some of your Tory mates on here have deluded themselves throughout this campaign and beyond with your brave and empty boasting about how you’ld be coming back – about how Howie would cream Krudd, about how those scumbags Roxon and Gillard would be humiliated by voters.
If I thought that you were at all serious about discussing politics then it would be interesting to look at Gittins’ comments (which I believe are broadly right), and discuss the extent to which a Labor Govt can insulate itself from world shockwaves.
But after seeing your outpourings of semi-literate drivel over the past few weeks, why bother?
PS: I’m hoping and praying that Turnbull gets up. 1. Because I like him. 2. Because he’ll keep the Opposition relevant. 3. Because he’s a ruthless arrogant bastard and one of the first things he’ll do within the party is marginalise people like you and your neanderthal mates who hang around here.
Yeah, I doubt it Steven Kaye. If it’s anything like the past cycle, it’ll take Labor about 10 or so years to fix up whatever underlying mess we’re currently in, then the Coalition will be back to scoop up the cream and take credit for it.
You are an absolute wanker Steven Kaye! Get used to being in opposition for the next 10 years plus!
Can you lefties at least give Howard credit that he didn’t blubber like Malcolm Fraser aka ‘no pants’.
#
722
Ville Says:
November 26th, 2007 at 7:17 pm
Yeah, I doubt it Steven Kaye. If it’s anything like the past cycle, it’ll take Labor about 10 or so years to fix up whatever underlying mess we’re currently in, then the Coalition will be back to scoop up the cream and take credit for it.
Ville doesn’t that sound familiar…a Tory Government just in for 11.5 years good economic managers, massive surplus’s and a new ALP government to spent all the money and take all the credit…
Didn’t say he did
Swing Lowe @ 697,
I would expect the overall proportion to drop to 55/45 in both seats. early postals will be older people (Howard’s demographic). All these seats are absolutely too close to call atm.
Glen
Vaille had a mini blub – does that count?
My BHP Shares up $1100 today… I am feeling the hardship under Labor already
Ok, I give him credit for not blubbering like Malcolm Fraser.
Glen,
How’s this for what the MSM are going to do to Howard now that he is finished. BV posted this earlier today.
http://www.news.com.au/common/imagedata/0,,5768685,00.jpg
PM’s hubris leaves the Liberal Party in ruins – Glenn Milne
YOU have to hand it to John Howard. The man who immortalised himself as “Lazarus with a triple bypass” has reached from just beyond the point of political extinction to achieve his ultimate personal aim; denying Peter Costello his chance to lead the Liberal Party.
There is only one conclusion here; Howard has likely incinerated two generations of Liberal leadership on the bonfire of his own vanity.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22819422-33435,00.html
Why would we give Howard credit that he did not cry? It just proves what we have assumed all along – the man has no heart.
Glen,
Why would he cry? He knew he’d just destroyed Peter Costello’s career, so the night wasn’t a complete write-off for him.
You know I wondered if Keating would still be great to listen to once we got back in power. The answer is, yes it’s even better:
ELEANOR HALL: Now what sort of a prime minister do you think Kevin Rudd will make?
PAUL KEATING: I think he’ll be terrific.
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2007/s2101252.htm
Quick Big Red get off the floor!
You think Michael Brissendon is happy Costello has dropped out?
Lovely stuff from the Deposed Government Gazette (DGG)
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22822460-601,00.html
“This morning Mr Abbott also announced he would run.
“I’m offering myself to my colleagues as a candidate … I will be a candidate,” he told reporters in Sydney.
He admitted he did not have the best of campaigns, but said he had demonstrated “reasonably good people skills” and that he could “give a knock and take a knock”. ”
Reasonably good people skills. For Abbott that means not actually pushing Bernie Banton out of his wheelchair.
Still, good luck to him. And perhaps one of the psephy types on here can confirm whether it is possible for the Libs to return to power without receiving any female votes whatsoever. I assume that Abbott’s campaign team have already crunched these numbers themselves.
VoterBoy, “crunched” would be the operative word there…
Ross Gittens is a f^cking idiot. A bad election to win? What a turkey. That’s a bad Melbourne Cup to win because the track was heavy. I think Ross has forecast 6 of the last 2 recessions. The test for Labor will be to set the economy to take advange of the positive influences and insulate it from global ructions. Skills, education, an independent Reserve Bank, counter cyclical fiscal policy would all be a good start
Ruawake. In reguards to Ian Macfarlane ur comments may be true. however in 3-6 years that will not have anywhere near the same resonance. It is also why he can never be opposition leader. What u have to remember is there is not a large pool of “likeable” experienced liberals in a position to lead(if any). Paul K that is a very cynicle comment lol.
Downer on 7:30 report NSW
‘Peter Costello is no Paul Keating.’
I laughed and laughed
Quite a bit of irritation around the blog here. Neurons a bit dehydrated?
Can they have a Deputy Leader in the Senate? How about Christopher Pyne as Leader and Bill Heffernan as Deputy Leader? Should be a dynamic duo.
we finally get rid of these hacks after 11 1/2 years and on the first 7.30 Report of the new era we get the biggest irrelevant hack of them all
Alexander “ABC f*ckin love child”
Downer.
FFS
Downer on the 7:30 report
“He (costello) never had the numbers”
i.e. He never worked for it.
Why on earth is Downer on, again. Sick to death of the spoilt child.
HarryH, my interpretation was: That he would stay for three years but was setting himself up as a suitable gifted person for some international enterprise or for academia. Looks like his only real challenge is that he has not had a suitable offer yet. Given his linguistic skills, Paris would be a good bet. Merde. He, Vaile and Tiptoe will all do a smokey. This will give the oppos a change to recruit some much needed talent.
He had the sincere desire but his colleagues did not like him and the punters did not like him.
“Can you lefties at least give Howard credit that he didn’t blubber like Malcolm Fraser aka ‘no pants’.”
Actually Glen, I thought Howard’s concession speech was very dignified. It was probably the best he could do under the circumstances, so my hat goes off to Howard for that.
As for his legacy, well, that’s a very different story…
Newspoll tip for tomorrow???
MUST. KICK. THE. HABIT.
What Costello forgets when he talks about a majority of the party didn’t agree with him is that Keating didn’t have the numbers the first time either. It wasn’t numbers that Costello lacked…
750 Tim – early word is there has been some narrowing.
JFC at 742, I burst out laughing too. For the first time in my memory, Dolly said something I wholeheartedly agree with!
Think you’re aiming a bit high Steven Kaye!
See if you can win control of a local council first, mate.
While I loathed him as FM I have to say I’m going to miss Dolly. He was always good for a laugh. He is a real character who was entertaining but thankfully no longer has any real power.
Did anybody see Michael B’s spot, Julie was lookin’ fineee
I really hope she runs probably for deputy leadership as she probably doesnt have the numbers for the top job, but she should get deputy. She’ll cream Comrade Julia in Parliament
Pru Howard…oops Goward singing Rodents praises.
Still got one fan Rodent, but dont lett Mrs Bucket know.
HAHAHAHAHAH on The 7:30 Report Alexander Downer is wearing his Blue, Red, Gold South Australia tie that he used to wear when he was Leader of the Opposition!
I think Turnbull will be made leader. He is clearly the favourite in terms of public opinion, so on that basis alone, Turnbull would make a good start for the Liberal Party’s future hopes.
However, there is one big problem. Turnbull is a moderate. He has a seat with a large gay population and will have trouble getting around developing policies for extending gay rights. He also has a seat filled with people who have a social conscience, so it will be hard for him to avoid being socially progressive.
This will all be in direct conflict with many others in the party, notably the right wing extremists and religious nuts. So, despite Turnbull being the most publicly popular option the Liberals have right now, he is unlikely to be a unifying force in the party. In fact, many will hate him and will seek to undermine him.
Paul K,
How are you enjoying your company on PB?
Howard could save us a few bob by ditching the bodyguards.
No need to fear the grassy knoll, anymore.
Not as gracious as some, in his case, I am sure we all wish him a long life.
Not the 80s again pulease for the love of god i hope we Libs can not shoot ourselves in the foot again.
756
Glen Says:
‘[Julie] will cream Comrade Julia in Parliament
Only if she has a brain transplant.
758 ShowsOn
Looks a bit outdated, really, doesn’t it?
Noocat,
I think we’ll soon see how much power the right-wing nutjobs have in the Federal Liberal Party. If they’ve got the numbers, Abbott will become Opposition Leader. If not, expect either Turnbull or Nelson…
The Libs arent stupid Swing Lowe and Nelson or Turnbull’s election as leader will tell you that our party has not been taken over by the hard right.
Oh Glen, c’mon don’t you know the 80s are back in fashion?
On reflection, the Libs will give it to Malcolm:
a) the hardnuts hate him
b) he will be the least Howardised
c) he will fail to control the looney toones
…and then they hand it back to Abbott when Malbull has fallen on his face. They will want to keep Abbott out of the firing line for a while to recuperate, and for the electorate to forget his more ugly features.
Watch in awe as the big Mal blunders with his massive ego into this porridge!
YOU SIR, ARE NO PAUL KEATING: Dumbo Downer
Howard’s concession speech showed four things. The first was that he still had not grasped why he had got whacked. The second was that he was already trying to protect his legacy. The third was that Hyacinth had to prompt him twice when he forgot his lines. Done discreetly by the H, but done nevertheless. The fourth was his concession to Rudd was appropriately gracious.
There were several signs during the campaign of a person who may have been in the early stages of mental decline. These may have been due simply to the extreme stress he was under. It might also have been due to what may have been a fair bit of pain from what appears to be a dodgy left hip – he often favoured his left side towards the end of the day, quite often held his left side and often had his left hand in his pocket.
But I suggest that we may well have seen something a bit more. I suggest that it was one reason why the H was constantly by his side after a few ’senior moments’ early in the campaign. It would also help explain the lethargy, the crankiness and the poor judgement shown at many turns during and preceding the campaign. These were all very uncharacteristic of the former Howard.
Where the hell is Kirribilli Removals?
The workforce has already gone to the dogs.
Not if we want to be out on our asses for 13 years.
All the federal parliamentary liberal party is look at their state counter parts as an example of disunity and what happens when you elect a deadbeat leader…
Brendan Nelson is the favourite, but Turnbull could win too.
Julie Bishop is my lock for the Deputy job should she want it.
Glen,
After the John Brogden incident, I have learnt not to underestimate the stupidity of the NSW Right of the Liberal party. So forgive me for my caution regarding Turnbull or Nelson’s elevation to the federal party leadership…
Glen,
Will they sell the DVDs over the internet? Can’t wait for ‘Julie Does Julia’.
I think Downer had a few hits of laughing gas before going on tonight.
Glen @ 766
But they will pull the strings. So many so called moderates and the evil empire bloc. Who will sup with the Devil?
Bishop – Mr Speaker my Question is to the Deputy Prime Minister…
30 Secs of crud.
Gillard – 3 minutes of answer…
Glen – do you get it? Its called opposition.
Grog,
Many thanks for the Keating transcript link. It’s a pearler!
While I might not totally agree with his assessment of his own legacy, I certainly think he’s spot on about the ultimate historical verdict on Howard’s record as PM.
The only person the 7.30 Report could get to stick up for JHo was old Pru……hahaha
Noocat
Turnbull is just like Peacock. Aussies will not vote for a multi-millionaire PM and Labor would have a field day with it.
His victory speech was disgraceful. What a hero, you know he once mixed with the unwashed masses at the beach in bondi, unbelievable. I think the member for Wentworth has got his hand on his member rather than finger on the pulse
Voter Boy @ 721. Lovely post. You Stephen Kaye are in need of therapy. You have such a distorted perspective on you’re own importance. Much like the rest of your party.
Glen I love how you think Julia will get creamed by Bishop. Abbott couldn’t dent her. And that was with the most weak a**ed speaker in history.
Bishop couldn’t even put away Stephen Smith.
That said she is in your top 2.
Edward,
I’ll be glad when all the childish stuff is over and we can start having some serious discussions.
Paul K,
So who do you think will be in Rudd’s cabinet and what positions will they get? We obviously know about Tanner, Swan and Gillard…
Let’s put to bed this myth of the conservative’s superior economic management. The Tories have a history of economic laziness and social dislocation. They thrash the economy till they leave it smoking and smashed on the side of the road. That’s when the electorate invariably turns to Labor to fix the mess and steer the country through the economic hard times created by conservative stupidity – and to do it while offering a helping hand to those hurt by the economic downturn. Once she’s up and humming again the Tories are re-elected and go about handing out the freebies to the big end of town till the poor old dear is out of juice again. Labor are always the economic fixers, the ones left holding the can and having to manage the country in the hard times. They do it by bringing together all the stakeholders in this country – unions, business, the bush – and creating a cooperative spirit to rebuild the nation. Howard’s legacy to Labor is yet again an economy and a society badly in need of repair.
Nice of 730 report to give Dolly 10 mins to spruik for a job.
721 VBOW,
Interesting to ponder how a Rudd Govt would insulate itself against a recession – I personally reckon they’d struggle, if the Opposition had its act together (big if I know). The Labor “brand” is still vulnerable on economic management – they’ll need a trouble-free term or two to shake that monkey completely off the back.
As for Gittins (who’s a pretty smart guy by the way), I think (as someone else said) he probably has predicted six out of the last two recessions. Still, if you keep on making the same prediction you must be right eventually…
There are no bad elections to win. But (if Gittins is proved right) the point could end up being that 2004 was a very bad one for Labor to lose.
“766
Glen Says:
November 26th, 2007 at 8:13 pm
The Libs arent stupid Swing Lowe and Nelson or Turnbull’s election as leader will tell you that our party has not been taken over by the hard right.”
Glen, I know a lot of people have picked you up on your slipshod grammar and punctuation over the past weeks, and in some cases I’ve let it slide, but in this instance I can’t.
One must never begin a sentence with the words “The Libs aren’t stupid”.
Paul K,
A little triumphalism is to be expected for the first week, after all it is like the weak kid finally knocking over the school bully.
Still comments like 780 make me laugh considering Australians did just vote for a multi-millionaire as PM. And I do get a strong sense of deja vu re 1996 and 2007.
Just because we have had a 12 year and a 13 year govt doesnt mean the next one will be the same duration, more like 7-8 is the natural duration unless there is a fu*k up by the opposition on the way.
Yeah, its true. The VIC ALP really wedged Bailleau over his personal fortune, subtly enough, but effectively….
Plus he’s far too inexperienced to be PM, wouldn’t you say Glen
In any case, the next Liberal PM probably isnt in parliament*
(*try saying this over the next few days, at work, or at social occasions. You’d be amazed how much enjoyable it is. Highly recommended!).
drew – loved how he wanted to make use all his experience of foreign affairs.
Yes, being able to ignore all those cables about AWB does show some skill. Bet there a lots of govenrments wanting to know how he got away with that.
I reckon Garrett will get shunted over to Indigenous Affairs. Not sure who’d they pull up for Environment though.
Testing new name
Kerry O’Brien might pull the pin. Who better to slot in but Alexander Downer. Goodness, he has done enough job interviews on the ABC.
789
Sorry, I meant Merchant Banker multi-millionaire, or is it white collar gambler ?
The only model you can look to for the Federal govt is the NSW State government and that is a worry. Hopefully whilst they may use NSW Labor spin they dont use NSW Labor management techniques.
Or briefer, zappier version. The Sports Model.
Penny Wong in Environment? Or will they pick someone from the House?
If so, I guess you could go with Albanese…
Intersting from Sid Marris:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22822480-5013481,00.html
The Rudd Government will move from re-stating what its work agenda is to unveiling it. Come Friday, and a likely ministry, the dynamic changes.
And so it continues into the New Year. If the inflation figures are worse than thought, the economic greatness will begin to gather rust. Or watch for the demolition of characters as an Opposition-turned Government gets another go at prosecuting the case on the Australian Wheat Board scandal.
.
.
.
perhaps thoughts of a royal commission are not quite trashed yet.
“If they’ve got the numbers, Abbott will become Opposition Leader. If not, expect either Turnbull or Nelson…”
Very true, should be revealing.
But if the Libs do put Abbott in as leader, then that would be a very BAD move. He is hated out there in voterland and is a LONG way from being PM material. Of course, Abbott may just be the stand-in for now. But even with the job of rebuilding the party, Abbott would send the Libs even further to the Right. They would go from bad to worse and be no better than some of their state counterparts.
Albanese was rumoured a few weeks back.
Kirribili Removals (one of the best ever Nicks, by the way!)
Good point that Malcom Turnbull has a massive ego, but don’t all three of the contenders deserve equal rating on that quality?
Okay, I might concede Nelson is only a 9/10 because anyone who’s done an M.D. internship would have endured his share of vomit and blood.
But Abbott is an 11/10 given that he boasted of having good “people skills” today when that’s the last thing he should draw attention his colleague’s attention to.
Turnbull, as you suggest, probably won’t last in 3 years, but by then we’ll be a Republic if Rudd wants to have a go.
The Tele suggested KR will knife the Fergusons.
Problem is if you knife one factional dud you have to cross factionally knife the duds to be fair.
Neilbris @ 785,
Even if you’re right (and I reckon you’re only half right) about economic management, just ponder these six words: “the recession we had to have”. One Keating self-indulgence too far.
Those words have already helped the Libs win four elections, if there’s a recession expect to hear them quoted again and again and again …
Politics is a lot about perception. The Labor brand still has catching up to do on economic management. Assuming Rudd is anywhere as near as clever in Government as he has in Opposition, a recession is probably the only thing that can Labor the next election. But it could cost them, there’s no doubt about that.
Rudd will be there for 7 – 8, then it will be over to Bill Shorten.
Unlike Howard, Rudd won’t over stay his welcome, the Labor caucus won’t let him.
“The only model you can look to for the Federal govt is the NSW State government and that is a worry.”
Why would this be the ONLY model?
Dyno @ 787. I broadly agree with you here – especially on Gittins, btw, but also on your nuanced take on 2004 being a bad one to lose (except, of course, for the fact that it would have delivered Mad Mark to the Lodge). We’ll just have to see – you get the circumstances you get, I suppose.
Well, for what its worth I am impressed by the following
Howards “I’m done” speach…
Cossie’s “I’m done” speech…
The Bombers “he will be judged worse then he deserves” speech
John of Melbourne for his post
Glen for showing up
ESJ @ 803,
I hope Rudd knifes the Fergusons. People like Fitzgibbon, Crean and Macklin should go too…
Swing Lowe,
IMO he’ll only make minor changes just to show everyone who the boss is. It will basically be the same team as he went to the election with. Obviously Garrett’s job may be changed but he can’t push a high profile candidate like that too far out into the cold.
803 EsJ Got a link?
I think one problem may be if he selects too many parl secs. Imagine if say Combet or Shorten is your parl sec. You’d know it’s just a matter of time…
Apparently, Matt Price said the “Buck stops with Me” comment by Rudd will haunt Rudd at some time in the future.
He might be right!
RIP Matt Price.
Word is that Laurie the Dulux Dog is headed for the back bench.
Paul K,
Will he bring in people like Combet, Shorten, McKew, Debus and Kelly into the ministry immediately (as well as Clare in Blaxland and Dreyfus in Isaacs)? Or will they get shunted onto the backbench or parliamentary secretary positions?
807 VBOW,
Yes, if Mad Mark had got to the Lodge in 2004 then we’d now be discussing the new PM, Peter Costello, IMO.
What I meant was that if Labor had picked a leader with a normal psychological profile in 2004 and won that election, they’d by now presumably have had three years of economic boom. Which would have helped the Labor brand a lot on the economic management front.
Because Noocat the State governments have largely modelled themselves on Carr.
Yeah dream on ShowsON – you seem to thing it can all be conveniently mapped out like an Indonesian puppet show, Whilst the ALP understandably would be overjoyed at the win – the facts and history mean the next ALP prime minister after KR will probably go through a period of opposition before becoming PM or at best get 18 months before a loss.
The office tends to make anyone think they are God. Imagine for instance JWH its been 12 years since he drove a car or bought groceries or paid a bill, you do tend to get out of touch. I think the ALP rather than restraining KR will be straining to get all four trotters well and truly into the trough.
I believe JWH understood like the Godfather real power was taken not given.
Yeah, time for shake up at ALP as well.
I’d lose Macklin, anyone called Ferguson, and Bevis for that matter.
Im not sentimental about McMullan or Crean either, but I suppose they’d best keep em for a term to keep up Ministerial experience appearances.
To be fair to KR it would be extremely hard to tap someone on the shoulder after waiting 12 years and tell them they had missed out on a ministry, but I guess thats leadership.
I believe he will put some of his people in place but not try to rock the applecart too much.
816 ESJ,
One thing about Rudd that I don’t understand is “who are his friends in the party?”.
Even JWH had a couple, Minchin, Downer, Abbott, maybe even (in a funny sort of way) Ruddock (though they weren’t at all close earlier in their careers).
Who are Kevin’s?
Every PM needs some, otherwise they have no idea what all those idle hands are really up to.
Swing Lowe,
Ultimately it probably depends on how many people he thinks he can piss off and not have to worry about. I’d certainly agree on getting rid of Crean and Macklin for some of the Young Turks but how many enemies can Rudd afford to make so early on?
805 ShowsOn. I think you;re right about SHorten (though Combet will want the job as well I suspect).
My sister tells the story of the time she went along to a recievers meeting of a bankrupt company as representatives of one of the creditors. Shorten was their arguing that the entitlements of the staff should come first.
She said by the time he finished speaking she felt as low as you could get, and wanted to get money out of her purse and give it to the workers. (Course the guys from KPMG she was with didn’t quite have the same reaction!)
Further to 819, maybe Swan’s a mate of Rudd’s?
I’m not sure.
Shorten is not leadership material, Labor will never win with him. To assume that Rudd will win next time is crazy, i think at present maybe but to me Rudd is no Keating or Hawke and if he is facing Turnbull next time it will be tough. Turnbull is smart and attractive and if he is leader and handles the far Right well he maybe the next PM.
The only downside is that he is from a wealthy background and that he comes from New South Wales, a downside in regards to grabbing seats in Queensland.
To me Shorten is not personable and unattractive and this is downside.
In regards to workchoices and mandates i believe that the Labor has no right to suggest that the Coalition should allow their legislation through before July, as Labor did exactly the same when the Coalition were in government. Thanks to idiot Beazley.
Ah! The Liberals, the gift that just keeps on giving. Keep it up sports, in terms of denying what has happened and specifically, the impact of Serfchoices. You’ll be in opposition for a decade at least.
I’m with you Next Lib. Keep Crean and McMullin for at least 18 months. You want to have some guys who won’t get all giddy first time they walk into a Ministers office!
I also think everyone will be on notice not to assume they’ve got the job for the next 3 years.
HSO @ 824,
WorkChoices was deadly, no doubt about that. The Libs will have to find a way of letting the repealing legislation through the Senate without looking like hypocrites.
“Because Noocat the State governments have largely modelled themselves on Carr.”
So… therefore they will model themselves on Iemma? Hmm. That is completely illogical, ESJ. Why on earth would all state governments, plus the federal government, model themselves on the NSW state government?
If anything, Rudd has picked up more tips from Beattie than he has from Iemma.
ESJ, you are just talking nonsense. Why don’t you ask the infinitely more important question of why things have gone so terribly wrong for the Liberal Party. Being out of government everywhere is humiliating. The party can’t even get Lord mayor in our major cities apart from Brisbane.
How could it all end up like this? Any ideas?
FIJI is the epicentre of the Pacific. Melanesian, Polynesian, Indian, Chinese, Eurpoean, Explorers and Settlers. (One big happy family – a real mixed beautiful bag and melting pot of the modern Pacific Islands!). Let us hope and pray that the people who have the privillege and wisdom to lead us through these difficult times will bring peace, prosperity, joy and happiness to the people who give so much to her neighbours and our travelling friends. If you have never taken a trip to Fiji, first stop, Nadi Town and experienced the warmth and beauty of this country and its people then I encourage you to do so as it will open your eyes. Sincerity and genuine human compassion beyond anything you could compare to in Oz. You will feel welcome, safe, truly wind down and relaxed, it will be your holiday you will never forget. I talk as an aussie who has lived in the islands for 10 years. Please look East to our neighbour. She is our friend and needs our help and support.
God Bless Fiji
827 Noocat:
How could it all end up like this? Any ideas?
Because life is just.
The smell of Workchoices will always haunt the Libs……like when you chuck in the car, you just never get the stink out.
The Guardian’s pretty incisive editorial on the Australian election.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/australia/story/0,,2217006,00.html
And a couple of pieces on the Labor victory.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/australia/story/0,,2216949,00.html
http://www.guardian.co.uk/australia/story/0,,2217015,00.html
And OMG, we’re signing Kyoto and saying ’sorry’ (but are we apologising as well?), what a difference a couple of days make – I can stop pretending I’m a Kiwi now!
As a Labor member i wish would stop be arrogant and suggest that Liberals will be in opposition for a long time, as it is possible they will come back quickly. This country now has Labor governments everywhere, and any slight prob their will be no excuses, no suggesting it is their fault. For a time interest rates if they continue to rise they will be able to blame the former government but in perhaps six months this will wear off, and if times suddenly go downhill a bit Labor may in serious trouble everywhere. To me they made some promises in campaign which were silly and they will have abide by them and they may regret them.
VoterBoy, did you end up talking to your Liberal insider since the election? If so, did you post anything? Thanks
The problem for the Libs is very deep – if you’re out of govt everywhere, all your best cadre leave for private sector jobs.
I dont think there’s any doubt – they’re in serious trouble organisationally.
yep WorkChoices is to the Libs what the 17% interest rate was to the ALP.
but worse.
The Liberals big plank is “reform” of industrial relations. Under Howard especially it was the whole point of their existence. Now they can’t go there.
The ALP had to convince the public it wouldn’t cause an increase in interest rates. The Libs will have to do the same with IR. But the difficult thing is it is so central to what the LIberal Party is – all for individuals; all against unions.
Good luck.
Chris, I felt the same today.
Workchoices flushed, a national apology to indigenous people, signing Kyoto.
Now, THIS is the country I remember.
On a different topic – the other night people were talking about whether 52% would be enough for Labor. Labor got 53.4% and looks like 86 seat. Take 1.4% off uniformly and look at the seats the Coalition would have held of been line ball in… by my calcs it is in the order of 8-11. So Labor would have been looking at 75-78 seats with 52%, give or take a seat. Basically, as I suggested beforehand, 52% would have made a very tight election
Signing Kyoto and saying sorry are symbolic policies, could someone please tell me what big changes other than workchoices that Labor will be implementing to change our lives. Whitlam, Hawke and Keating were reforming politicians but this one? I will have to wait and see but i doubt it will do much.
I’d like the Liberal leadership team to be the idiot son of the Adelaide establishment and his bastard son (Downer and Pyne, for the unititiated)
Good point Dyno about “friends”, I think Shorten has a few friends in caucus already, feeney,marles and I think Rudd will v.much keep Shorten in his place at least early on – I think a junior ministry or parl sec.
The leader never makes it easy for potential dauphins, Labor or Liberal.
Noocat, yes of course the State governments, they keep getting re-elected where else would federal labor look too?
Retrospectives for the Liberals, its time, WorkChoices and a positive strong leader on the other side. All three will be missing next time with a Turnbull. Competition its good for the soul.
Of course the Liberals have a lot of duds who need to go but no doubt their hackfactor will be reduced by the loss.
10pse – exactly right. They went backwards by 1-1.5% in the last 3 days.
And no doubt Chinster many Liberals would be hoping for Belinda Neal and Mike Symon to get senior cabinet posts.
838
Rudd doesn’t have to do as much reforming as Whitlam, Hwake and Keating, because Whitlam, Hawke and Keating did a lot of reforming!
20% reusable energy by 2020 is a good start.
The education revolution will come, because Rudd actually does believe in it.
And dopey as it is, one of the best things he will reform is “the vibe” of the country.
Who will be minister for the “vibe” Grog?
i soooo want abbott to get the job…would be kinda like having mark latham but much funnier….
I think he’ll be remembered as the PM who set Australia on the renewables course.
In latter 21st century history, that will count as a ‘major’ reformer.
Lefty E at 836, tell me about it – I haven’t felt this happy in years – no more dog-whistling, no more divisiveness, no more appealing to fear and greed. Does it get any better than this?
On a personal level – as a member of a dog-whistled minority group, I’m so glad the nasty party has gone.
I am not suggesting the Libs were ever at 48%-52%…. quite plausible it was just MOE…. but i am just saying that those who said that 52% always transalates to a victory should have a look at the facts… at 52% (had that been the case) it would have been very tight
Work Choices is NOT going to be much of an issue in the future if the Libs don’t have control of the Senate and if they have a leader who says it was Howard’s policy and not his. Turnbull might be able to deny Work Choices but Abbott, Hockey and Nelson probably couldn’t.
841 EsJ All this talk about the polls moving assumes the polls were correct.
All the Liberals need to do is say:
1) We lost an election on this
2) We dont want to lose further elections the public pronounced its view and:
3) Assuming KR has sensible legislation say this now reflects the public consensus which we support
End of story.
827 Noocat,
A lot of the Liberal economic agenda has been accomplished, and fully agreed to by Labor (for now anyway). Quite a lot of it done when Labor was in power, in fact.
If you got in a time machine and went back 25 years, it would have seemed like a Liberal wet dream to have:
- the financial markets substantially deregulated
- lower personal and corporate tax rates, and a GST
- industrial relations much more deregulated (still will be the case even after the WorkChoices repeal)
- union membership at all time lows
- heaps of stuff privatised
- etc.
At State level Labor now stands for managerialism rather than much in the way of welfare or left-leaning reform. I won’t bore you with examples.
Sure, the social landscape has moved away from the traditional conservative mores, but most people realise that’s not really controlled by Governments anyway. And most Liberal voters (as opposed to party activists) don’t think the Government should be interfering in people’s bedrooms, to use the old cliche.
Labor just doesn’t provide nearly as much for professionals and business people to fear as it used to. Not only does this cost the Libs votes, it saps them of money and volunteer time – even people who vote Liberal aren’t necessarily so fussed about it that they’re going to donate or hand out HTVs.
And this flows through to a lack of quality candidates and an “enthusiastic amateur” flavour in much of the campaigning. Labor is much slicker, especially at State level.
And Howard has been looking like a dinosaur for most of the last term – since he’s been by far the most prominent Liberal, that hasn’t helped.
That’s basically why the Libs are out of office everywhere.
When is Andrew Robb going to launch his legal challenge against all the inelligible Labor candidates ?
Watching Downer on 7.30 Report, I can’t wait for the first tell all book on the Howard years. I think there will be a race amongst former ministers to place their version of history on the record.
The Liberals are making the right moves already, with Costello, Vaile and Downer all going to the backbench. To me a Turnbull and Bishop team will be difficult for Labor to counter and in regards to ideology it may be good as it may move Labor to a Centre Leftist position, instead of being solely Centre Right. However it may also be difficult for the Libs to have policies which attract people if Labor is very much the same as them on policies.
844 EsJ.
Well Hockey would probably want the Shadow role.
Will Says:
Will, I think that honorific is reserved for Leapin’ Leo McLeay.
Dyno,
True but to a certain extent the “managerialism” of State Labor governments has been masked by a strong economy.
Dont forget Dyno, by year 2 the left will be saying KR doesnt stand for anything.
853
Petrie is Coming Home Says:
November 26th, 2007 at 9:04 pm
When is Andrew Robb going to launch his legal challenge against all the inelligible Labor candidates
You think that might get a work out in Question Time?
Surely he would have to be referred to as “the Member for Google”
ESJ,
Not sure about other States but in NSW they’ve pretty much floated along on stuff like stamp duty from the property boom. The economic good times have made life easier for all govts, not just the Feds.
I find it amusing that Robb could become the Deputy Leader of the Libs. It speaks volumes regarding the dearth of talent in the current Liberal caucus that he is considered a very serious contender for the job…
I agree Kyoto and Sorry are symbolic, but that’s where the previous govt let us down so much. They didn’t lead on anything, they just divided and appealed to the worst in people.
I remember when New Labout first got into power in the UK, nearly everything they did cited Australian Labour govt policy as progressive examples of what they were trying to achieve. No-one followed Howard anywhere.
858 EsJ, but the left say that about every leader. Hawke, Keating….
It does them good to say it, but no one really cares (not even them).
Workchoices will be remembered by a core group of people, and people will remember it when it comes to the industrial relations policies of the two parties. Nevertheless, if the economy goes bad than workchoices will be totally forgotten about and not managing the economy for Labor will be remembered for a generation.
Minister for the Vibe is Maxine.
Was just re-reading some of Matt Price’s blogs. His one after Rudd stuffed up the tax brackets had this great response:
From Damon:”So I won’t be asking Kevin to help me with my next tax return—but I guess he will be too busy running the country anyway …”
touche GG
“833
Triffid Says:
November 26th, 2007 at 8:52 pm
VoterBoy, did you end up talking to your Liberal insider since the election? If so, did you post anything? Thanks.”
I did. He didn’t have much gossip as such – for once everyone is keeping things close to their chest. But a few quotable quotes:
“There are now 500 Liberal advisers on the market looking for jobs, and not one PR firm or government relations outfit wants to touch them.”
I asked how Brian was going. “It’s ugly. The campaign material was 10 years old, and that wasn’t Howard’s fault, that was Brian’s.”
I asked how long he thought Rudd had. “He’s got at least six years. But I’ll tell you something that we’ve picked up from looking at the states – these guys are really good at digging themselves in. And I think Rudd will dig himself in.”
Everyone thinks Downer’s going to quit. He expects some others, but no names as yet.
People are very p’d off with Costello. He says his faction is now in absolute meltdown.
As for leadership, he’s got no idea.
He was shell-shocked. I said a few kind, patronising things about Howard, made my excuses and left.
An overview from the reactions from the UK papers:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22824446-23109,00.html
Things the next Liberal Leader will do:
1/ Only refer to the previous government and it’s policies as ‘the Howard government’, never the Coalition or Liberal government.
2/ Tell everyone WC is dead and in the same way you accepted the judgment of the Australian people on Medicare you accept it on WC. The Party has moved on.
But will the Libs fall into the trap of denying the predecessor like Labor did Paul K?
Would Rudd have won in ‘04? I think he would have given it a hell of a shake.
Yes of course 872 – reports are only now coming to light of people being healed by touching the hem of his coat.
Other things the next Liberal leader will do:
1. Accept that climate change is a real threat and advocate the signing of Kyoto (if it hasn’t happened already).
2. Insist that anything bad that happens in the economy over the next 3 years is solely the fault of the Rudd Government…
I don’t think even 3 years ago that he would have been as easy to demonise as Latham. He could hardly have done worse.
Sounds like a Liberal troll making out to be a Labor supporter. Or do we have a bitter Labor supporter already trashing Rudd after two days, predicting a Liberal victory on the basis of untested and politically inexperienced Turnbull. Amazing.
With supporters of this nature no wonder Labor spent 11 years in opposition. I gather Rudd must have upset some favourite faction of the Labor party for this early condemnation to be taking place.
Edward,
They will give the stock standard answer all Pollies do: ” The Australian people are only interested in the future and that ’s what they want us to talk about. No one cares about the past. If you want to talk about the past let’s talk about Kevin Rudd’s promises. “
Chris you are right. To me though the number one issue is Climate Change it overtakes all other issues and to me dramatic action needs to occur on this now. Getting rid of diesel fuel rebates, tax breaks on company cars, stopping a pulp mill, doing more on public transport. To assume that business will do things on renewals is crazy, governments must do it themselves and enact policies to stop people from creating carbon emissions. This is what i want from a Labor government real reforms, because at present the Arctic may be gone in thirty years or less and we may be require air conditioners on in winter.
marky marky Says:
To assume that Rudd will win next time is crazy,
…
In regards to workchoices and mandates i believe that the Labor has no right to suggest that the Coalition should allow their legislation through before July,
…
Signing Kyoto and saying sorry are symbolic policies, could someone please tell me what big changes other than workchoices that Labor will be implementing to change our lives
…
The Liberals are making the right moves already,
…
Nevertheless, if the economy goes bad than workchoices will be totally forgotten about and not managing the economy for Labor will be remembered for a generation.
…
Geez, if you are a “Labor member”, you must be a real hoot at branch meetings.
Rudd would probably have lost in 2004 – no Workchoices, the interest rate scare campaign, the Iraq issue – all of these would have been detrimental to his campaign. Whilst he may have done better (probably quite a bit better) than Latham, he probably still would have lost.
And that would have been worse – his reputation would have been tarnished, with the likely result being that Latham would probably have been in charge of the ALP this time around.
So, with the benefit of hindsight, Latham’s calamitous loss in 2004 has ended up working pretty well for the ALP…
How insecure are we? Who bloody well cares what other countries think of us. America rarely ever mentiions Australia at all but we do every day.
How long is it since any government changed in Australia? 6 years? 22 elections? Something like that.
When NSW’s inept, developer-hugging, decayed-infrastructre, hospital-meltdown ALP got back in a landslide earlier this year democracy was looking sick… if not dead.
It’s refreshing that somehow the electorate broke out of it’s “I’m OK jack” torpor to sweep the Tories aside. But it’s probably only workchoices that scared them into action.
[An overview from the reactions from the UK papers:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22824446-23109,00.html
God U.K. papers are funny. Why the hell do they think their opinion will influence when Australia becomes a republic?
Why don’t they write about when the U.K. should become a series of republics?
I was speaking to mate in the ALP today – and he was commenting that the ‘04 loss really killed off the worst excesses of factional infighting.
In that sense, they thank Latham – in retrospect, as it were
Maxine McKew! Go you good thing!
William I suspect when the payout is made on Bennelong there will be a few of us visit the paypal button on your home page to say thanks for this blog. Verdict: 5+ Bennelong polls look to have been right on the money.
Democracy suffers when incumbency has so many advantages: More electoral allowance, more staff, Public service to number crunch, government advertising dollars to splurge, election dates to set.
Isn’t it amazing how quickly things change, seemed like the rodent and his gang would be around for ever, and then in the blink of an eye the whole thing collapses like the Berlin Wall.
These ugly mugs that we have been forced to look at for the last 11.5 years are now nobodies, a bunch of has-beens and in the case of Costello never-was-beens. All firmly rejected by the electorate along with their misbehaving the last 11 years (overlooking the fact most of them should be on trial).
What a mess Howard has left, I mean if I was a liberal party member I would be pissed, he has completely trashed the party, not that he cares, he’s off to retire. I wonder if those geniuses who are left in the Lib party, those who spout about his legacy realise what he has really done to them. I heard the Libs are broke, is this true? Suppose Turnballs could bankroll them.
In any case, what a poor choice now, the best of the bunch is Turnbull, last thing he did of note was completely bugger up the republic issue (which was really quite remarkable considering how simple it was).
I think the best thing would be for the Liberals to implode completely and a new party feel the vacuum.
ShowsOn @ 883,
When I was in the UK recently, I remember reading The Daily Telegraph editorial advocating that Rudd should not hold a referendum on the republic. Looks like they haven’t changed their tune now that Rudd has been elected. That said, they don’t call it The Daily Tory-graph for nothing…
Turnbull has to be leader (even though Kina and others are right to point out his inexperience).
He ticks most of the boxes:
- seems like a guy who might know something about economics (no worse placed than Rudd on that, anyway)
- reasonably well positioned on the environment
- very well positioned on the Republic, and at least ok on other symbolic issues
- self-made man
- thick skin
- smart
- ruthless so-and-so who really wants to be PM.
He’ll struggle with the NSW Right, but I reckon the Victorians will help him pull them into line, and in any case if the Libs think he can win, they’ll probably back him.
Abbott would be a disaster (albeit an entertaining one), and Nelson has the personality of a dead fish.
Turnbull (probably with Julie Bishop as deputy) is also the most likely to be able to raise big money. They need it.
Turnbull and Bishop are the Liberal Dream Team but the point is are we going to go for a two election strategy or go balls out for 2010 to regain 10+ seats
Nelson and Bishop would make an equally good team IMHO.
Malcolm Turnbull will be as popular as batsh*t.
Here we go again stab at Latham. At least Latham had some policies. Yep Education revolution says Rudd but what does this mean. A few computers to kids and very little else and it is not means tested. Yep Greed is good, i think Murdoch and Foxtel will be rapt here more users of computers and more money to be made in regards to Foxtel bundling with Telsta.
But we will continue to give private rich schools their handouts and allow universities to charge mega bucks for degrees. And on Health care yep we will allow to have the private health rebate. I think some of you have been brainwashed by the media and the Labor rightwingers.
Latham in his article just recently summed it up well,
Labor will be about legitmacy, trying to make themselves a legitmate government in the eyes of business and media elites to run this country.
Kevin Rudd wasn’t popular until he became leader GG.
Exactly Swing Lowe at 888 – The Telegraph is a bit on an anacronism…..it’s for the tweed-wearing, hunting, Troy, country set. The firmly believe no change is good.
Glen,
In public they will say it’s a a one term strategy but privately and in reality it will be a two term strategy.
But the Guardian and Independent are what most progressive thinkers read.
They obviously have a lot of time on their hands. Whether we hold referendums or not is none of their business, they should stick to worrying about their own country.
Glen,
Two election strategies are rubbish.
Nick Greiner is about the only person I can think of who has ever pulled it off (and that was basically him being smart enough to know he couldn’t beat Wran in 1984, and managing the Party’s expectations accordingly).
Gough in ‘69 doesn’t count, that was a one election strategy that (just) fell short.
Go with your best leader (Malcolm T) and go for broke in 2010!
Kevin Rudd is and always was about process and outcomes. Turnbull is in it for himself. Otherwise he would have got to politics a lot sooner.
That’s the trouble if its a one-term strategy its Malcolm if its a two term then its Brendan.
Regardless Julie Bishop will be deputy, Robb and Pyne are lightweights and Albanese and Tanner will rip them to shreads.
MM,
Are you from the Socialist Left of Labor? Coz the main policy failings of the Latham era were these:
1. Private school hitlist
2. Medicare Gold
3. Changes to private healthcare regime
These were the key reasons why Labor lost so badly in 2004. By coming out with these 3 policies, Latham managed to single-handedly alienate every community that he needed to win over.
Rudd (and the ALP) have realised that class warfare is a 20th century battle that should remain in the 20th century. Labor has realised that it needs to govern for ALL Australians – not just the underprivileged.
Bob Carr pulled it off though
ESJ- I hope you don’t do female impersonations!
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22818394-5006301,00.html?from=mostpop
I’m off to read “Dark Victory”. I couldnt face reading it while the Rodent, Dolly and the Grim Reaper were still in power but I’m going to enjoy it now.
890 Glen,
Turnbull has done well to put his hand up (shows he wants it, not like Costello), but I think this would be a good constest to lose.
Dyno is right though about the money factor…
Geez you guys have got it tough. At least Costello would have bought you 18 months.
He must be despised in the party right now.
On how Howard will be remembered. Because the Libs will have to turn on him somewhat (as the ALP did to Keating). He will not be mentioned with much warmth for a while.
But Keating has come back because he is still young enough to go on the ABC and launch broadsides. In 10 years can anyone see Howard going on LL to re-establish his legacy?
GG @ 899,
We’ve never had a PM in my time (Gough onwards) who wasn’t in it for himself. I’ll suspend judgment on Rudd but I’m pretty sure he’s the same as all the others in that regard.
902 HE,
Good point – must be something about NSW. I still wouldn’t have it as a starting plan, though.
ive never thought JWH was as good a political operator as he was made out to be;
against a good opponent, one who wouldnt fall for his one trick wedge he was all at sea.
for all those that think otherwise (to paraphrase jack nicholson)
if jwh was such a goddam political genius why is he so goddam politically dead?
cheers
Chris in London,
From my impression, The Independent was a paper targeted at Liberal Democrats voters (however many there are…), whilst The Guardian’s letter-pages seemed to be filled with Labour voters still lamenting the fact that the British Labour Party didn’t espouse the values of socialism…
Overall, I found UK papers all too politically partisan (and shameless in that approach). It made me value the relative political fence-sitting that you tend to see in Australian newspapers.
Glen if Turnbull gets close next time it will silly not going with him. Turnbull has the smarts about him and is presentable and he speaks well. Although i for one can’t stand his background and his rich pedigree i would stick with him. Nelson is unattractive, unpresentable and has no charisma.
Dyno @ 905,
We will have to disagree.
Watch while Rudd changes the political landscape in front of your very own eyes.
Dolly is going to run……………………Dolly the sheep that is
Rudd is as ambitious and as ‘in it for himself’ as Malcolm but that’s politics for you.
907 h’s end:
Couple of things:
- Howard’s win-loss record is 4-2, which isn’t too bad.
- but I agree in the sense that he (and many others) interpreted 2004 as a vindication for him, when it was probably more of a vote against Loony Latham (who says the voters don’t know what they’re doing?).
I am still not sure whether 2007 was mainly a vote for Rudd or a vote against Howard.
912 Bull butter.
Anybody who wants the job of PM is in it for themselves because they wanted it NSMM, Howard was the same so was Paul J Keating and so on. That doesn’t mean they don’t want to do what’s best for Australia it just means they are in part in it for themselves.
MM is right to the extent that back in 04 everyone thought 16 seats was a 2 term majority.
BUT
Rudd isn’t about to bring in workchoices.
Rudd hasn’t been PM for 11 years.
Rudd won’t be announcing he will retire in 2011-12
Rudd won’t be seen as a man of the past.
Rudd won’t be seen as a lap dog of the most unpopular American president in history.
etc etc
Turnbull, Nelson whoever, the Libs only chance in 2010 is that the economy goes belly up.
Dont know if this has been mentioned before but on insider told me Pyne wants Foreign Affairs and is a good chance to get it.
Now we know that Costello was more interested in a job at MacBank than ever being P.M.
853: Dyno
And the Liberals are going to find it even tougher to attract good talent, donations, and other resources now that they are out of government everywhere. The party offers little hope to prospective supporters.
But one thing I do find interesting is the irony in Howard’s attempts to weaken the Labor Party organisation through WorkChoices. We all know it was designed, at least in part, to destroy the union movement and therefore eliminate a major funding source and talent pool for Labor. But in the end, it has been WorkChoices that has been a major contributor to the Liberal Party’s worst defeat ever in terms of 2PP vote. And now that the party is out of office everywhere, it is they who will struggle to maintain a support base.
Howard went for a major power grab, but only to further undermine his beloved party.
This is so sad, Handshin only needed 1500 votes to send him into the Age Care industry.
Petit Mal (as some genius so bewdifully described him), will be the fall guy. Does anyone here really believe that picking up the corpse of the (il)Liberal party is anything but a great way to contract the political variant of ebola?
Turnbull is going to take the bait and die vomiting it up.
Watch and enjoy the vicious machinations give it to him (in both senses!)
Julie Bishop should get Foreign Affairs if she’s deputy leader not Pyne.
Pyne should get education.
Abbott should get IR.
Hockey should get health.
On the altruistic argument about politicians, I think both sides are right. The reason for this is that many politicians are so narcissistic that they are convinced that if something is good for them, it is good for the country. It is pathognomonic of a dictator.
Glen – and treasury?
Maybe the Libs should put Ruddock and Robb up for six months while they work it out. Whoever they put in then would only drive the poll ratings north again. They could then crap on how about how “popular” the new leadership team was.
Hope i have not interrupted you whilst you read your book on Mangerial Economics. Swing Lowe it is obvious to me you must have private health insurance and you went to a private school. To me Latham lost because of the Forestry policy and the CFMEU and interest rate scare.
How do you expect to create a better country if we do nothing meaningful on education and healthcare. We are spending billions on helping the wealthy in these areas but to you that is okay. Why have two tiers of healthcare and education. Labor did not have these policies ten years ago.
I don;t belong in any faction but yep i believe in socialism. And i am not afraid to state it.
So when are we going to see the 20 staff that Hockey had to sack today bitching about AWA’s on TT or ACA?
Nelson or Turnbull depending on whose the leader.
Or Dutton if he holds Dickson which is 50/50 atm.
Has anyone heard anything from Nifty, either about the win or his ex business associate Malcolm?
Out of all the Senate candidates in Qld, the last spot was fought over by the ALP and Pauline Hanson. While the ALP won it, Pauline still polled over twice as many votes as the Democrats. We still have a lot of growing up to do in this state.
Glen-does J Bishop want Foreign Affairs though? Its a crap one to do from WA isnt it?
Not necessarily considering the rise of India and China all closer to WA and all wanting WA resources. Though if Julie was deputy she could have any position bar treasury, perhaps health maybe???
Glen, the Libs have only one winner perhaps Bishop but Turnbull should be their choice and they should stick with him. They have little else. Turnbull makes you watch and listen, the rest pathetic.
I just hope that old Malcolm fails in his attempt not to be dragged into the FAI and HIH court cases. Some dirt might come out that isn’t real pretty.
The debate about who will lead the libs is academic, the reality is that the party is virtually bankrupt, both financially and ideologically. And where do they thing they will replenish their coffers from now, business will avoid them like the plague. A pox on their houses, the bastards deserve everything they get.
919 Noocat,
Anything which helps the other side re-connect with their traditional support base is dumb politics.
Which is why politics will get interesting if Labor re-introduces unfair dismissals for small employers – this would make small business get interested in the Liberals like they haven’t been since before the GST.
Sure, not many votes (majority of small business people still vote Liberal), but it would certainly help the Libs get people involved in the party.
I assume Rudd wouldn’t be silly enough to do this …
Hockey is another one of those Liberals with his brain in strange places. Was he trying to make voters guilty for voting the Coalition out? Was he foreshadowing challenging his loss of a ministerial job as grounds for an unfair dismissal claim?
Does he still think he should be paid $410,000 a year?
All this speculation about the Libs.
It really is going to be, “Who wants to lie in front of the steam roller?”
Marky Marky,
I have Private Health Insurance and I’m proud of it. Does that make me a Capitalistic whore or something? When are you lefties going to get the idea that the Australian people don’t want a left wing PM. Or a right winger either. They want a moderate one and that’s what Rudd is. Probably the most moderate leader since Hawke.
Bishop would be at home, as WA is foreign anyway.
Nelson has the zero personality. If they pick him then they got no hope in hell.
935 Basil,
Assuming this is true, the culture of the Labor Party will change massively over the next decade as the Liberals collapse.
Will be interesting to watch all those new recruits from business fight to wrest control of the ALP from the traditional owners…
A complete Liberal collapse will have plenty of unforeseen consequences for the ALP.
Is anyone else waiting anxiously for the next Newspoll on Lateline, or just me?
The Libs could always make some money by packaging their leadership brawl as “Opposition Leader Idol”
I have nothing against private health insurance, what i am against is the government paying money to people to join or be members.
What i do love is the selfishness of people, i get the best care but i get it because i can afford it but you can’t so i get the better care.
Private health can exist but i don’t want the government paying for it.. simple. And the carpeted floors and the champagne. I hope you like these indulgences Paul.
Just to clarify the choices
Malcom “climate change doesn’t require imeadiate action” Turnbull
Julie “we dont need to fix education” Bishop
Tony “we dont need to fix health” Abott
Brendan “my party wouldn’t even let me out from the attic during the campaign” Nelson
and
Joe “honestly workers do like workchoices” Hockey
For me I like Julie Bishop because she represents all that is out of touch about the Liberals, carried on to the next generation.
GB that is fantastic. I just love it.
Marky mark,
You’ve picked me correctly – yes, I do have private health insurance and yes, I went to a private school (Sydney Grammar, in fact – the same as Turnbull). But I vote Labor. And it’s people like me – yuppies, I guess – who are attracted to Rudd for being economically conservative, but socially more progressive than Howard. Labor has finally realised that class politics belongs in the 20th century and that the private sector is more important in modern Australian than the public. It’s time for the Labor Socialist Left to realise that too…
Swing Lowe, the reason Latham lost had nothing to do with policy at all, it was almost entirely due to his style and persona being scary to the electorate.
FYI, Beazley had very similar schools policies in 98 and 01, and people blame that (and other things) for his loss too. However anyone that thinks that was the reason for the loss is deluded.
It should be noted that he actually did VERY WELL in 98, winning the 2PP and narrowly failing to make the Howard govt a 1 term govt. Go do some research and tell us how long ago it was that we had a 1 term federal govt!
Likewise 2001, given Tampa + S11 to only suffer a 2% swing is incredible, and indeed a credit to the rest of the campaign and policy. Even a win at this time would have been impressive and astounding.
That said, Latham did do a bad job selling some of the policies.
we need a new phrase. It’s the political cycle, stupid.
Glen- I agree with you about Lib leaders. I think Turnbull with Bishop. I think Bishop should take Health as it is going to be much more important federally now under Rudd. As a doctor working in a public hospital, I can say with confidence that he is going to regret taking it over. There will be endless stuffups that he is responsible for, its a bottomless money pit and there is no hope of turning it around. If I was looking for a great, high profile job in opposition, it would be Health.
Any Nationals up for their prized leadership?
DOGS – I hear the Nats are booking a phonebooth to have their leadership ballot in.
.
.
Barnaby for PM
Actually yes because Malcolm has to go balls out to win by 2013 or else he’s finished i mean he’ll be into his 60s if he’s not PM by 2013.
Malcolm Turnbull – Opposition Leader and Leader of the Liberal Party
Julie Bishop – Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party and Shadow Minister for Health
Peter McGauran – Deputy Opposition Leader and Shadow Minister for Transport and Regional Services.
Brendan Nelson – Shadow Treasurer.
Warren Truss – Deputy Leader of the National Party and Shadow Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry.
Joe Hockey – Shadow Minister for Environment.
Ian Macfarlane – Shadow Minister for Industry, Tourism and Resources.
Tony Abbott – Shadow Minister for Employment and Workplace Relations.
Andrew Robb – Shadow Attorney General.
Bruce Billson – Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs.
Pat Farmer – Shadow Minister for Education.
Christopher Pyne – Shadow Minister for Citizenship and Multicultural Affairs
Helen Coonan – Shadow Minister for Families, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs
That’s just a few predictions.
Interesting predictions Glen, Probably not too far off.
Andrew Robb for AG is funny given his incredible legal mind. (Web search smear). A grade A fool who got caught.
954
You think Tony Abott will be responsible for repairing the damage done to the party with workchoices?
Glen has given their whole parliamentary team a gig ,every player wins a prize.
Glen,
Swap Billson for Pyne and get rid of Farmer and that sounds about right for me. Expect Andrews and MacGauran to get something (not education for either). I’m thinking Morrison (in Cook) getting education – he’s supposed to be a smart guy, so chances are they’ll put him there.
Also expect Hawke to get a junior ministry somewhere (and perhaps Mirrabella)…
Glen-will the Libs announce shadow after Labor to match up strengths and weaknesses?
Mr Shadow Treasurer,
How many Super Hornets could you buy for one trillion dollars?
959- Diogenes
hahahahahaha
950 Dio,
As a doctor’s husband (that crucial demographic!) I agree with you about Health – no political good can ever come from owning it.
With the ageing population and the ability we have now to keep people (expensively) alive for years the costs are just going to keep rising exponentially. The increasing Health bureaucracy doesn’t help either.
And people’s expectations are (understandably) high – you can forgive the government for cancelling your favourite bus so you have to get up 20 minutes earlier each day, but not for letting mum die because the emergency dept was under-staffed.
Still, the man famously said that the buck stops with him …
the libs should go for the guy that the opposition would least like to face;
for me thats Turnbull
with Turnbull at the helm, a more moderate set of policies from the libs…it wont take too much economic strife to make them electable again..especially since they will run the labor cant manage the economy mantra
963 howards end
yes the managing the ecconomy mantra works so well for them
Well Robb would fill the role of the Vampire who most certainly will go to the backbench to count his retirement stipend lol.
Here’s a few more
Dr Dennis Jensen -Defence
Michael Keenan – Shadow Minister for Local Government, Territories and Roads (he likes Roads funding in Stirling
)
Andrew Southcott – Shadow Special Minister of State
Peter Dutton – Shadow Minister for Trade (if he’s elected)
Oh and Kevin Andrews – Minister for Community Services
I havent been watching news but are Downer, Ruddock and Andrews politically dead?
BBD @ 964,
It will work for them if there’s a down turn. If the economy runs well they can forget 2010 anyway.
h’s end, agree, Turnbull’s a no-brainer in my view.
obviously didnt work this time….but i think the its time factor swamped the economy this time
Howard has moved to Pru’s for a sleepover.
Laborites would love to face Malcolm Turnbull or Tony Abbott…hence Malcolm Turnbull will win.
Swing Lowe, their are socialist governments in Europe creating decent societies but we can’t because we are an appendage of America. What i love is this innate view that the private world creates better lives for us all. Yep those executives are doing so well whilst workers struggle and work long hours to survive and people work two or three casual jobs to live but yep you have had it all and never seen disadvantage a model of new Australian we must create.
You obviously believe that the private sector would create a better world with profits and harbour boats and big houses and more greenhouse luxuries.
Yep the private sector is doing so much for us that is why we have a monster foreign debt and unaffordable homes.
Yep the private sector treats us so well that is why we sit down for dinner and get a phone call from a infrastructrue company asking us to join their same as other because they have some bettter service to provide. Yep the private sector is doing us so well that a government has to come along and do something about our poor broadband service because Telstra now a privatised company can’t afford it . Get Real.
His going to need to be given a more senior shadow ministry.
Christopher Pyne is the Liberals future Glen – suffer.
its hard to tell whether ruddock is alive or dead politically or otherwise
noooooooooooooooooooo fine then Let him have Shadow Special Minister of State
948
Swing Lowe
How is subsidising private healthcare and private schooling particularly economically conservative??? I don’t have any problem with people chosing these options, but I don’t think the current funding is a good use of tax payers money in many ways.
Actually Christopher Pyne will be learning how to door knock and visit child care centres for the next three years
Pyne is like a pale imitation of Downer. At least the real Downer is only funny, not creepy.
Glen,
So which Libs are we going to try to get to retire at the next election to make way for fresh blood? I think they need to get rid of:
Peter McGauran
Tony Abbott
Andrew Robb
Christopher Pyne
Helen Coonan
you didnt find downer in fishnets creepy dyno?
Dyno-despite appearances Downer and Pyne hate each other. Pyne virulently hated the Rodent and hence Downer.
Andrew Robb for Attorney General?
Mr Shadow AG, will you make sure you do a full google search before determining the guilt or innocence of any terrorist?
Not really creepy h’s end, more humorous. Perhaps I need professional assistance?
Darryl @ 975,
Those are fair points, but what pisses me off more about the Howard government was their middle-class welfare policies. If you’re going to give money back to people, why don’t you just cut the tax rates!!! Anyway…
I forgot to mention that Moylan should be in the ministry. As should Tuckey.
And – if private schooling was subsidised, less people would be able to attend those schools, meaning that the public system would be overburdened. Same principles apply regarding private healthcare…
BBD — Hows the vibe in the union office? Pretty chuffed I would imagine ?
Won’t all this shadow ministry malarkey depend on who Costello’s camp lines up behind? (That’s if it can stay in one piece). It’s not big, but it would have to wield some influence. Equally, did Dolly have some numbers?
I heard Bruce Baird being a little distant about Malcolm this morning. I don’t know about Petro, although I know he doesn’t rate Abbott, and of course Downer was behind the push to have him knocked off (forcing Cos to come to the rescue).
And yes, as noted by Swing Lowe at 958, the unspeakable Mirabella will no doubt have to get a guernsey. Let’s hope Malcolm wins. He could give her Northern Ireland.
Glen,
You talk like a Liberal insider, but you really are a fatuous nobody.
If the Libs are serious about regeneration, here are a few names that might fill the bill.
Sharman Stone
Greg Hunt
Chris Pearce
If you don’t know who they are, just watch the papers in the next fes weeks.
workplace relations shadow?
who will it be?
how will they reverse the damage- which may not be reversable for some time?
would going moderate on IR cost them their financial base aswell, which is all they have left?
Good point. It would be a huge risk having a deputy opposition leader who only holds his seat by 1500 votes.
pk @ 978,
Abbott will still have his uses as a head-kicker who doesn’t give a stuff what the other side tries to do to him. Not in charge of any real policy, though.
Agree with you about the rest.
Any predictions on what might happen to the Coalition itself? I.e. will the Libs and Nats keep the marriage going? I think it could be headed for a nasty, almost DLP type split that would keep them out of power for a very long time.
Firstly, the Nationals didn’t lose this election – Howard and the Libs did. It was the Libs who were more responsible than anyone for the drop in the National primary vote and the loss of three National seats, more so than Labor or the Nationals.
Secondly, the Nationals could walk away with some dignity if they ditch the Liberals soon, and divorce themselves from Howard & WorkChoices (to an extent), and divorce themselves completely from the bitchy shitfight that will be the Liberal party for at least the next three years.
Thirdly, a Coalition is no use when you’re in opposition, it’s only needed to win power. If the Nats are prepared to face it, they’ll know that they aren’t headed for power, even in Coalition, for a long time, so why stick with the bad smell that is the Liberal Party?
If the Nationals do end the relationship, they only way I think they’ll stay relevant and politically alive is to somehow get along with Labor – if not in an official coalition, then in a similar relationship to the one which the ALP has with the Greens.
If Rudd really wants to secure the middle policital ground and (this is a bold prediction I know) install Labor as the natural party of government – then he could appoint Barnaby Joyce and Bob Brown to his cabinet, but not until a second or third term. It would be radical, but imagine the political mileage he would get out of it – representing a diverse range of interests, governing for all Australians etc etc.
There’s a bit to think about there, sorry for the long post.
Cheers,
Nick
I thought Liberal insiders were fatuous nobodys?
10 pse, you couldn’t be more wrong. It is meaningless to take 1.5% off uniformly, because if Labor had got “just” 52% it would have been distributed un-uniformly.
You can always create hypothetical scenerios where a party gets 52% and loses. But it would never happen in practice.
Never.
Ever.
None of the above…
Downer
Georgiou
Hawker
Macfarlane
B. Bishop
Ruddock
Somlyay
Tuckey
Costello
That should free up a few spots for some talent…
Yeah g’day ESJ
Mostly very happy at the ACTU, still some work to go to get the laws thrown out, which is what our campaign aim is, so we wont be puting our feet up for a while yet.
23/24 seats we ran community campaign (dirty tricks mannual) were winners.
ESJ- please see 903. I think someone’s been a bad, bad man (or woman). And Kevin’s going to sue!
But Tuckey and Bishop had no role anyway
I’m sure this applies to some people, but I guess the question is does to amount of subsidy equal the outcomes generated by moving these people from public to private?
For the people that were already in the private service the outcome from subsidy is approaching zero.
Grog those people i just outline should be eliminated by 2010 to free up for new talent.
Latham lost because he could not sell his policies or because he was a nasty man. Fair dinkum what next. You have been brainwashed by the Murdoch papers simple. They hated him because unlike Rudd Latham wanted nothing to do with them.
As Ken Davison says in todays Age
Murdochs’ power is based on ownership of two thirds of newspaper circulation in Australia and is power is based on the gullibility of politicians. Rudd is no exception. After running a bitter and blatant campaign to shift policies and a failed attempt to shift public opiniion, Murdoch editorialised to back Rudd in three of his biggest papers. He wants to support winners.
In return Rudd has taken on board most of agenda.
990 Nick,
I think what you’re saying is the sort of thing Rudd would love to do. I also think he’d give Howard some kind of sinecure if Howard’s reputation hasn’t been totally trashed by then.
I’m not sure if the ALP would let him do this kind of stuff, though.
im not sure if u guys have this feeling…..after the euphoria of finally getting rid of the rancid rodent….i dont know…..theres this feeling of what now?… Not sure if this is because we basically are getting Howard lite (without the divisiveness)…theres not a sense of true believers about this……
Glen, a few more suggestions for Liberal Shadow Cabinet: Greg Hunt and Chris Pearce. And keep Bruce Billson – I like him actually, seems to be a decent chap.
As for the other side of politics: I predict Rudd will promote Combet, Shorten, Maxine, Debus and maybe Mark Dreyfuss also.
I don’t feel so bad, it sucks but the ALP have elected its most conservative Labor leader. I fear that Rudd’s election has been an anti-climax for you Labor supporters.
I agree with Billson and Pearce.
HH the trouble is Kev is going to disappoint a lot of hacks if he does this lol?
1001
howard’s end
A bit of – glad to finally see the back of Howard, but wait and see what happens with Rudd.
An apology to the Stolen Generations, the Republic and a few other things championed by the “Cafe Latte” set don’t matter much to me, I won’t lose any sleep if Rudd doesn’t pursue them. The only way a Labor leader gets elected to office in this country is to be as conservative as possible.
Glen for once i agree with you. All these brain washed people who join a party hoping a party will do something great and will create a better world but in the end if they think about it not much has happened. Except for Murdoch and his the rich.
This is terrible. Howards gone. What will happen to the poor orangutangs now?
Look out for Mark Buttler in upcoming cabinate reshuffles- he wasn’t retired to Port Adelaide, he is a very talented, experienced, but still yound rising star with massiive cross factional respect and support.
Just teaching the slow learning Sane Lib how to use the site.
If she manages to post a comment, be kind, please.
LL – Tony Jones ‘ Mark Vaile has fallen on his skate board’
hahaha
Debus is a good chance for Attorney General. Isn’t he already 64 years old? I doubt he will be around for more than two terms.
Tony’s doing stand up on LL.
“Mark Vaile falls on his skateboard!!”
Love it. And our favourite prissy private school boy Christopher Pyne is coming up. YAY!
Can we put together a list of Coalition MPs who have been supporters of Peter Costello? I’m aware of the following – George Brandis, Brett Mason, Chris Pearce, Greg Hunt, Tony Smith and Christopher Pyne. I’m guessing Russell Broadbent, Judi Moylan and Petro Georgiou were also included in the ‘25-30′ supporters he was usually said to have in the party room.
Who were some of the others? I’m planning to watch how they vote in the upcoming ballot closely, to see whether they’re positioning Costello for a move closer to the 2010 election.
Glen, I’d hope Rudd gets quite a bit of deadwood out of the cabinet.
Even a Labor supporter like me would concede that a good proportion of the shadow cabinet was mediocre: Laurie Ferguson and Alan Griffin come to mind.
And Simon Crean outlived his usefulness years ago.
My suggestion for new Nationals leader: Kay Hull
Hurray that means Julie is doing the numbers ATM not Pyne
Many of them seem to be moving to the back bench.