That lucid analysis I promised two posts ago will still have to wait another day. In the meantime, I have added a new “photo finish” thread below for Dickson, where Labor’s lead is an uncomfortable 389 votes, to those already existing for Swan, Solomon, McEwen, Macarthur, La Trobe, Herbert, Bowman and the Victorian Senate. It would also be remiss of me not to note the very sad passing of Matt Price, taken far too young at 46.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
The day after the day after
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Patrick Bateman,
There is no way Rudd will replace Gleeson with Burnside. Burnside is too much of a loose cannon and conservative commentators everywhere will shows that it is evidence of the culture wars being reignited – exactly what Rudd doesn’t need at the start of his term.
My tip for Gleeson’s replacement will be Jim Spiegelman, Chief Justice of the NSW Supreme Court. He’s liberal (in the American sense) to please the Labor Left (he was the complainants’ barrister in the Stolen Generations case), but with enough judicial experience to quell any conservative concerns.
If the Coalition block the repeal of WorkChoices they will have no chance of winning the 2010 election.
147 Brandis certainly seemed in believe in the Mandate theory in this Maxine McKew interview in 2005.
GEORGE BRANDIS: Well, I think in the first place, it will mean that the government will be able to deliver on the mandate that it’s received. If you look at the legislation that’s been held up in the Senate in the past, most of that legislation is legislation for which the government has received a mandate, not once, but now at four successive elections, most notably the industrial relations legislation. Now, I’ve lost count, honestly, of the number of times on which that package of bills has been knocked back. Last time I counted, I think it was about 17 times. That has been a manifesto commitment of the government at each one of the last four federal elections, but our Labor opponents, under the Whip from the trade unions, have knocked it back. We’ll be able to pass it and so give effect to the people’s expressed wishes at the election. Can I broaden that point to make a different point? Just because the government has a majority in the Senate, where does the notion come from that that’s un-democratic? I remember in years gone by when Mr Keating and Mr Hawke and before that Mr Whitlam were the Prime Minister, the Labor Party would say, “Well, how undemocratic can this be, that the Senate is holding up legislation which we the Labor Government committed to at elections?” When the boot’s on the other foot, somehow the argument changes.
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2005/s1321817.htm
Labor needs to create a few economic mantras in case the world economy turns down or inflation keeps rising.
They need to put it firmly in the mind of the electorate that it is the fault of the Liberal party – ie Decade of wasted prosperity, Decade of misspent surpluses increasing infalation, the prosperous economy that we have had firmly identified with Keating and the current boom times; noting that Howard and Co basically did nothing.
This will be an important mantra to create – because we don’t know how the world economy is going to progress over the next few years, especially the USA.
My Saturday night euphoria was slightly tempered by the return of Michael Keenan in Stirling, albeit with his slender margin further thinned. I met Peter Tinely at my local service station about 10.30 Saturday night and he looked pretty well knackered. I commiserated and offered the consolation that at least we were in government, and there was always 2010/2011. “Are you up for another go?” I asked as he turned towards his car. He turned back. His face lit up. “Shit yeah!”
Good find steve.
steve @ 138
“A compunding problem as the Liberals squabble over the spoils of defeat will be that they will very likely not have sufficient funds to mount a campaign state or Federal for many years.”
Does anyone have a read on their current financial position. They chewed through a shed load of cash at this campain – the cupboard may be bare.
Labor should say that the economy is a means to improve living standards, it isn’t an end unto itself.
If people don’t benefit from a growing economy, then there is no point growing the economy.
Maxine has claimed Bennelong.
Well she kind of did and kind of didn’t.
I thought the latest was that she expects a result by Friday.
darn – i think serfchoices, whilst a big factor, was not the only reason for the baseball bats swinging. i’d like to think that it was a pattern of behaviour that eventually caught up with howard et al. and omigod, a GIFT to the ALP – that ridiculous transition-to-the smirk scenario.
I would love to see the Mad Monk as leader with the Stroke Victim as deputy. What a classic combination that would be! lol
Vaile’s press conference to resign his leadership is coming up soon – 2pm.
Good to hear. Tinley is a top notch candidate.
Would you dare utter the words ‘dream team’, Dario?
ELECTION FALLOUT – Sky News has scheduled a media conference for Mark Vaile shortly live on Sky. NO hint as to the content of his statement.
“The Wasted Years” has already been said a few times on this blog. I suggest that as the “mantra” description of Howard/Costello.
It’s got the added advantage of explinaining why you shouldn’t vote Liberal in 2010 even if the economy is slowing. It’s their fault – they wasted the good times.
Great get Steve @ 205.
Will Vaile announce the Nats will break the Coalition too? Please God, let it be true.
I don’t think the Nationals have a future anyway (and don’t care), but does anyone know if the nats have someone to succeed Mark Vaile, or will it just be a differently branded sheep in the top paddock?
Three coalition leaders taken out in one election – eat that Malcolm Fraser!
Is the Stroke Victim Warren Truss?
It would be hilarious if the Howdy Doody man of Australian politics – Peter Maguaran – became deputy leader of the Opposition.
Labor will be better for regional Australia than the Coalition ever was.
Look at Dawson! 20% swings to Labor in some booths.
Nah, Robb
Absolutely!
The most important influence Howard’s defeat will have on the future of Australian politics, I believe, will be in underlining the fact that current and future high profile politicians will have a much-reduced shelf-life. The ubiquity of modern media and the intensity of its scrutiny mean that PMs, in particular, appear so often on our TVs that we tire of them so much sooner. Menzies’ reign would not have been half as long in the modern era.
I believe Rudd is astute enough to recognise this factor and will be Australia’s first PM since Menzies to leave at a time of his own choosing -I’m guessing in seven to eight years- and handing over to our first-ever female PM. Julia Gillard will easily defeat Julie Bishop at the 2016 election, during which the Liberals will be replaced by the Greens as the major Opposition party
lol with you Dario@212. they’d be hard pressed to come up with a grimmer pairing.
ShowsOn: Yeah, amazing! Though, for the Tories to be powerful again both parties need to rebuild. Only way the Nats can rebuild is by breaking away from the Libs and actually voting for/against policy based on their party’s ideology not the Libs.
The only reason the Nats and Libs haven’t merged is due to QLD and the fact the Nats are the senior party of the coalition there. Until the Nats in QLD become minor, I dare say the QLD coalition will merge. The only other thing is for the other states to start the ball rolling and leave the QLD branches the last to do anything (as usual).
oops, dario, i assumed ’stroke victim’ was brendan nelson….but on reflection he’s more like Ruddock of the Undead.
On second thought, The Mad Monk should be the leader of the Liberals. At the infamous meeting at Manl-Warringah Leagues Club he said something about giving someone a boot up the arse. Maybe we could compile a list for him, lets see who needs a good boot up the bum – Julie Bishop, Alexander Downer, Malcolm Turnbull, Christopher Pyne ….
Better still they could do it as fund raiser!
I always thought of Ruddock as a stroke victim.
Mouth is all smiles but the eyes are dead.
http://www.ag.gov.au/agd/WWW/rwpgslib.nsf/GraphicFilesPersonal/(CFD7369FCAE9B8F32F341DBE097801FF)~Ruddock+FLC/$FILE/Ruddock+Philip25percent.jpg
Melbourne is tipped to be a marginal seat. Greens have jumped over Libs on pre-postals and prefs favour them from Socialists and Democrats.
Lisa: Intersting.
Doesn’t Tanner still have 50% primaries though?
Mark Vaile is a complete personality vacuum.
He has just resigned from the leadership of the Nationals.
Yes, 50.82
Plus, a lot of the Liberal votes will leak to Tanner anyway.
After nearly 12 years, we finally have a Deputy Prime Minister to be proud of.
Vaile resigns??
Benelong gone to Maxine…
This just gets better and better. If Richard DN gets into the senate my joy will be complete.
I certainly believe the ALP would be wise to bring forward their IR legislation while the Libs control the senate.
Either they back down, or they block it till July.
Either way, its a PR win for Rudd.
Did anyone hear Keating on The World Today?
He called Abbott a Young Fogey – Howard was the Old Fogey – Abbott is just the same, but younger.
I completely agree with him, Abbott as leader would be going backwards, because Abbott won’t admit that anything Howard did was wrong.
Oh- forgot to mention another bit of icing – a big swing against Sophie Mirrabella. In the order of 8%….lol.
Popcorn (211) I agree with you that there were other causes as well, but it was evident in the polls at the time that workchoices started the big slide and Howard never recovered after that.
She’s my new De-Anne Kelly. Hopefully she gets kicked out at the next election, her only redeeming feature is her Labor voting husband.
Leaving with dignity
Noticed on ABC that McKew has all but claimed victory in Bennelong saying “Bennelong is now a Labor seat”. Her lead can’t be passed on postals.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/26/2101269.htm
Point is, under Westminster conventions the beaten candidate is supposed to concede before the winner claims victory. But Howard is dragging his feet.
Vaile’s gone!
That’s my (more believable) mail too – apparently the deal is done for Spiegelman. As I said, the Burnside thing was implausible, but I do think it’s not completely unimaginable.
I would love to see French J get the nod – unfortunately I think he has some Lib connections in WA though, but from a purely legal point of view he’d be gold.
SMH has just got a story up about Vaile resigning. Wants a new career in the portk industry.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007/new-shock-as-vaile-quits/2007/11/26/1196036785226.html
I think Howard pretty well conceded Bennelong on Saturday night.
Re Bennelong, the AEC site still shows about 1400 absent and postals not counted, but she’s ahead enough to win, apparently. That’s how it appears to me.
Further to what ShowsOn says about Abbott not being prepared to admit any errors on the part of Howard:
No senior member of the Coalition has publicly denounced Howard or his policies, despite their comprehensive vote of no confidence in him as leader weeks ago.
I don’t think the Coalition will be in a position to rebuild until it can publicly admit the errors and missed opportunities of the Howard years.
So while many might delight in the carnage of Vale and Brough losing their seats, Costello quitting politics and Vaile resigning the Nats leadership, these are the very things that will allow the Coalition to start again and challenge in 2013/2016.
Vaile’s resigning before the inevitable inquiry.
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