• I’ve variously heard it said that this election was Labor’s biggest ever win, and their biggest ever swing. I presume this is because nobody can be bothered looking past 1949, a benchmark year due to the expansion of parliament, the election of the Menzies government and the fact that the AEC’s historical two-party preferred figures don’t go back any further than this. However, John Curtin’s wartime victory of 1943 had it all over Rudd’s performance. Curtin won 66 per cent of the seats from a primary vote of 49.94 per cent, up 9.78 per cent from 1940. Rudd has won probably 58 per cent of the seats from a two-party swing currently at 6.5 per cent. I personally am not willing to call this a “slide”, be it of the land- or Rudd- variety, given the score on the primary vote is 43.95 per cent to 42.68 per cent (UPDATE: Coalition vote now 41.54 per cent). I was actually expecting the Labor vote to be slightly higher, hence my exaggerated expectations for the Greens in the Senate.
• It is a remarkable fact that there are two seats which the Liberals might gain from Labor, given that there were only four seats in the land which swung to them. The potential gains are the Perth seats of Cowan and Swan, the former of which has definitely been won while the latter is once again going down to the wire. The 2.2 per cent swing in Cowan can be readily explained by the popularity of retiring sitting member Graham Edwards, but rapid suburban expansion in the seat would also have been a factor. The swing in Swan, while only 0.2 per cent at this point of the count, is coming off a disastrous campaign from an accident-prone candidate in 2004. Other seats in Perth swung slightly to Labor. The 3.1 per cent swing that won them Hasluck was at the upper end of the range.
• Interestingly weak swings to Labor in McMillan and Gippsland, which were also areas of weakeness for Labor at last November’s state election.
• A little further to the west, swings were in the exact 5 per cent to 6 per cent range Labor was shooting at. Deakin has been won for only the second time in its history, while McEwen and La Trobe are still in doubt.
• Not hard to spot the odd seat out in South Australia: with swings elsewhere of between 4.3 per cent and 11.0 per cent, Nicole Cornes could manage only 2.0 per cent in Boothby. Makin and Wakefield swung heavily enough that they’re outside the Labor marginal zone, but not so Kingston, which produced the state’s second smallest swing at 4.3 per cent.
• The Liberal vote proved curiously resilient in the Australian Capital Territory: they were down only 3.7 per cent in the Senate, enough that Gary Humphries retains his seat, with swings of below 2 per cent in the two lower house seats.
• This election produced even less support for the “doctors’ wives” thesis than 2004. There was very little movement in inner Sydney and Melbourne, either in safe Labor or safe Liberal seats. The most notable beneficiary was Joe Hockey in North Sydney, where a harmless 4.3 per cent swing was nonetheless a relatively poor result by inner urban standards. Sophomore surges for Julie Owens in Parramatta (7.7 per cent) and Chris Bowen in Prospect (7.3 per cent).
• Outer Sydney swung as heavily this time as it famously did in 1996: Chifley (8.3 per cent), Greenway (8.4 per cent), Lindsay (9.8 per cent), Macarthur (11.0 per cent), Mitchell (9.6 per cent) and Werriwa (7.9 per cent).
• A diverse range of Queensland seats produced double digit swings: Dawson and Leichhardt in the north, Longman in northern Brisbane and the neighbouring Brisbane hinterland seats of Groom, Blair and Forde. Groom was the only survivor. Retiring sitting members were a factor in Forde and especially Leichhardt. Ryan failed to live up to the hype, with a 6.8 per cent swing that was very modest by Brisbane standards. I’d be interested to know why Longman swung so heavily.
• Labor’s two party share of the remote mobile votes from Lingiari was up from 78.7 per cent to 88.4 per cent.
• While enough to bag two seats, swings in Tasmania were relatively mild. Franklin was one of the four seats to swing to the Liberals, a testament to Harry Quick’s personal vote.
• A noteworthy outcome in Melbourne, where Greens candidate Adam Bandt will likely overcome the Liberal candidate to take second place, a first for the party at a general election. Lindsay Tanner made it academic by winning more than 50 per cent of the primary vote, but the seat will be marginal after preferences.
• Links for the “photo finishes” series of posts have been added to the sidebar. The most notable development of the past few days has been very strong performances for the Liberals on postal votes in the neighbouring seats of La Trobe and McEwen.
802 Comments
I have been watching the AEC website on the 7 tight races around the country….nail biting stuff. My prediction is Labor will get 88. I was hoping for 90 but a win is a WIN.
I probably should begin to stop posting here… but alas… a sad day for Australians.
Bernie Banton dead
http://www.smh.com.au/news/general/bernie-banton-dead/2007/11/27/1196036838655.html
I’m glad Mr Rudd acknowledged this great Australian on Saturday night.
Percy Bysshe Shelley on the decline and fall of Howardism:
Ozymandias –
I met a traveller from an antique land,
Who said: Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert. Near them, on the sand,
Half sunk, a shattered visage lies, whose frown
And wrinkled hp and sneer of cold command,
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read,
Which yet survive stamped on these lifeless things,
The hand that mocked them, and the heart that fed;
And on the pedestal these words appear:
‘My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
Look on my works, Ye Mighty, and despair!’
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.
I wish I could explain why Hughes in SW Sydney didn’t turn as much as all of the other seats in our area.
I live in Werriwa and according to your intro, William, we recorded a 7.9 swing to us in a safe Labor seat. I don’t know what Fowler had (another safe Labor seat and the third of the trio that cover Liverpool here in SW Sydney). I just DON’T get it. It can’t be Vale’s performance as I read letters to the editor weekly in the local paper and the people are really put out with her if the letters are anything to go by.
LTEP: Yes, this is truly sad, and I hope that Bernie’s life and passing are properly marked by our new government.
Seeing Cornes’ performance on TV on election night I think brought home the truth to all non-SA residents regarding her suitability as a candidate. BUT is there any possibility that this was all part of a cunning plan by Labor to make the Libs focus their efforts on saving Southcott, at the expense of other SA seats (including the near-run in Sturt)?
Just wondering if anyone is bothering to count preferences at O’Connor. On the current count Tuckey has 45.25% with ALP second with 12,896 and National party thrid on 11,603. The Green vote was 4217. It was my understanding that all non-liberal candidates were going to distribute their second preference to the National Party. Of course the Nats second preference goes to the Libs. Now if the Green preferences (along with all the minor party/independents) do go this way – then that will put the Nationals candidate ahead of the Labour candidate which will mean that the Labour candidate prefs get distributed (to the Nats) and Tuckey loses.
I’m not sure whether I’ve got the subtleties of the preferential system right and I’d be interested in other thoughts on this one. Love to see him go. The Nat candidate Phillip Gardiner is a nice bloke who is happy to talk and work with those who don’t support his point of view, whereas Tuckey has always been a bastard when it comes to that part of the electorate that doesn’t vote for him. He was complaining about the ‘conspiracy’ in the Albany Advertiser the week before but really he has only himself to blame IMHO.
kyangadac this may assist you to understand:
http://www.aec.gov.au/Voting/counting/hor_count.htm
From that page… ” [If] Nobody has gained an absolute majority… the person with the lowest number of first preferences is excluded”
This means that, as you say, if all the non-Liberal Party’s are directing preferences to the Nats, if the Nats leap-frog over Labor then they should be elected, unless a substantial number of people direct preferences differently than the HTV’s suggest.
Is there a minor party directing prefs to Libs?
I wouldn’t, however, be completely surprised if Greens voters avoided the HTV’s and preferenced Labor en masse, I think something like 80% of Greens voters don’t follow the HTVs.
In this case the Nats probably wouldn’t be able to overcome Labor’s primary and Tuckey would be easily elected.
Greens “preferences” are quite meaningless. I got asked whether I would claim credit for my preferences electing the ALP in Macarthur by a journo (if Labor gets over the line – which is the less likely scenario) and I pointed it was Greens voters, not the Greens ourselves. They do what they want. I saw that in my seat where the voters in the Campbelltown areas went straight to Labor in huge numbers while the voters in Picton ignored our HTVs completely.
Hughes is not merely a SW Sydney seat like Werriwa & Fowler. Liverpool is at the western end of the seat, but it also encompasses most of the Sutherland Shire, which is at the south/south-eastern end of Sydney. Liverpool is strong ALP, but the rest of the seat is more the mortgage belt/aspirational type voters that have been more attached to the Coalition lately. A lot of them swung to the ALP this election (some nice double digit swings in some booths), but they just fell short. I think it’s a solid effort by the ALP in this seat.
William, thanks for all your work on this great site, sterling job.
While this may not be Labor’s biggest ever swing, it is certainly the most significant , this election represented a watershed in Australian politics, to have lost would have consigned the movement to the dustbin of history. As it turned out, it now seems that it may be in fact the Liberals will be the ones consigned to that fate.
Leadership, smeadership who cares. Watch them as they fall like 10 pins at a bowling alley!
William,
Thanks for yet another cogent analysis.
Two serious questions I hope you’ll answer.
1. Regarding a “Slide”. Since I have no idea what your criteria are for that term, could you give us an example of a “Slide” since 1972? Or haven’t there been any since Curtin’s?
2. Why are Boothby and the W.A. seats the only “oddities” you mention? I reckon Wentworth was a weird seat both in terms of the counter swing to Turnbull and the bizarre melodramatic behaviour of the candidates.
Again, well done, mate.
H
Whilst we’re making some random notes, it appears that there will be a lot of low-hanging fruit at the next election for Labor. This will make it even harder for the Libs to fight back, as they will have to defend a lot of seats that Labor could feasibly win. I’m looking at:
Victoria: La Trobe, McEwen, Dunkley, Aston, Casey, Menzies, McMillan
New South Wales: Macarthur, Hughes, Cowper, Paterson, Hume
Queensland: Fisher, Fairfax, Ryan
Western Australia: Cowan, Stirling, Canning, Kalgoorlie
South Australia: Boothby, Sturt
All up, almost half of all Coalition seats are marginals now.
If the Liberals go backwards (as I expect) over the next 12 months, I’m expecting Rudd to seize the chance of a double dissolution, where he could easily increase his majority.
Interesting analysis on Possum’s site today.
Surely the fact that the Curtin 1943 win happened during the dark days of 1943 – with the Japanese still poised to invade the mainland – has something to do with the size of the Labor victory? While 2007 isn’t the largest Labor victory in absolute terms (and, yes, psephologically speaking, that is what counts), the 1943 win is always going to have that footnote next to it, while 2007 is pure and unadulterated…
If the Liberals go backwards (as I expect) over the next 12 months, I’m expecting Rudd to seize the chance of a double dissolution, where he could easily increase his majority.
The other thing is that a number of relatively marginal ALP seats will now require a whopping swing before they fall. It’s incredible how many already safe seats increased their buffer, compensating for the anti-Latham swing, and then some. Unless there’s either a miracle, or some major volatility in the electorate, it’s hard to see how the Libs could win in one term. On the basis, why would anyone other than a masochist put their hand up for the leadership.
Regarding the “low” swing against Joe Hockey.
His seat and others in north of the Harbour (Bishop, Abbott, Nelson) are not only hugely wealthy with no balance from lower income pockets (such as with the cityside pockets of Turnbull’s seat), but there’s been little change of demographics. If any new building has gone on there since 2004, only equally rich people could afford to buy them.
Under the circumstance, Hockey took a good whacking. He knows it and wisely has ruled out running for a leadership spot.
This election produced even less support for the “doctors’ wives” thesis than 2004. There was very little movement in inner Sydney and Melbourne, either in safe Labor or safe Liberal seats.
But it provided a lot of support for a class analysis hypothesis, namely, that electorates voted along class lines. Some sizeable booths in the poorer parts of outer-suburban Melbourne (such as Broadmeadows, or Lalor) got 2PP figures of around 85%. On the other hand, the Liberal Wets in the leafy neighbourhoods held their collective noses and, for the most part, voted Rodent once again.
Foillowing up William’s final dot point. There has certainly been a strong result for the Liberals in the postal vote count in McEwan and Latrobe, enough to move these two doubtfuls from possible ALP gains to probable Liberal holds. On the other hand in all the remining doubtful seats, Dickson, Herbert, Bowman, MacArthur and Swan, the postals have yet to be counted. That’s quite worrying for those of us hoping for a still higher inbalance in the House of Reps.
Does anyone know what margin (roughly) Labor will be sitting on? My guess is 2.5%?
I’m glad for the election of Hanson-Young – it fights ageism-”adultism” – there should be an affirmative action policy to promote candidates under 30 – the stereotype is that they are “inexperienced” – but how can they get experience with all the age discrimination?
Latest count for Ryan shows a 7.39% swing to Labor (up from the 6.8% swing reported above).
See http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-13745-177.htm
If this sticks, Ryan will be a 3 percent-er next time around. Thanks owed to the excellent Labor candidate, Ross Daniels.
ESJ,
Not quite sure what your question refers to, but Peter Brent answers it, I believe.
http://www.mumble.com.au/
Meng 6
While I agree that Nicole Cornes, though given a too harsh ride by the media, was not ultimately a sufficiently strong candidate, I don’t agree on Sturt. As a resident I saw a very large Liberal effort in the final weeks with many large post-outs. Pyne was desperate, even using the cowardly wive’s letter mail out tactic of Turnbull. Hence I don’t agree with the diversion of resources argument. Mia Handshin was simply a better candidate – more articulate and with a better grasp of the issues. I think she could have won Boothby, and definitely should be given more runs in the future, and more support.
Well here is a very amusing column from Gerard Henderson, finally admitting the truth:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/if-only-hed-retired-gracefully/2007/11/26/1196036809908.html
Curious that Gerard couldn’t bring himself to admit this in a memorable exchange with Andrew Bolt a few weeks before the election. Still, whos ays you can’t teach an old dog new tricks? You just have to beat it about the marginals 26 times.
Also vale Bernie Banton. Given the suffering involved in that sort of illness, it is perhaps a relief that he has passed away. But I’m glad he lived to see Saturday’s result.
William can you please clarify.
According to AEC historical data in the 1969 election Labor achieved a 7.1% swing to it and gained 16 seats from the opposition. It just didn’t win the election.
In 1983 (the greatest Labor leader outside of Curtin) Bob Hawke gained 24 seats from the opposition in a parliamnet of 125 seats.
So whilst this is a geat win it is not the greatest ever.
Someone has been having fun on ebay!
http://cgi.ebay.com.au/Liberal-Party-Leadership_W0QQitemZ320187798110QQihZ011QQcategoryZ581QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem
1969 was very significant in changing the political perceptions. !983 was huge in tat it buried the 1975 scare campaign.@007 is right behind themfor labor imo.
Sorry folks -a better post here. I think 1969 then 1983 then 2007 as representing large shifts in perceptions.
In individualtransformations – it would have tobe Malcolm Fraser.
It is interesting that the doctors’ wives seats (Ryan, Higgins, Goldstein, Kooyong, North Sydney) swung so little. I reckon the voters’ there were convinced by the Liberals’ scare campaign. The people who live in those places never get to meet any actual unionists, so they are liable to convinced by tales of union thuggery.
The centrepiece of the Liberal campaign thus enabled them to hold seats they were never going to lose, Ryan possibly excepted. It failed in all other respects.
On whether it was a landslide, primary vote comparisons with the distant past are irrelevant, because now there is a party to the left of the ALP, which gets 8 per cent of the vote. This wasn’t the case in Curtin’s day, or even Whitlam’s, or even Hawke’s.
The Labor + Green primary vote exceeded 50%. This is, I think, the first time in Australian history that the left of centre primary vote has exceeded half the total. It is a hugely significant event.
GG,
According to the AEC figures (assuming Labor has 89 seats and wins all the doubtfuls) it would take a 2.66% swing in 2010 to lose 14 seats and government, but then a 1% swing to the Government would deliver similar numbers.
William, thanks once again for your brilliant work! Poll Bludger is an invaluable resource and discussion board for all political junkies!
RIP Bernie Banton: you will be greatly missed! What a courageous man!
I doubt Labor will get to 89 seats, indeed they might only stay on a total of 83.
Perhaps a more likely total is 85 – Labor holds Swan and wins one of the doubtful QLD seats – Herbert or Dickson?
Nicely summarised, William.
My own additional thoughts….
* The doctor’s wives effect may have been offset by the genuine prospect of transition to Costello this term. I think the Wets gritted their teeth and thought “it’s only another 18 months……only 18 months…..” Maybe this helps explain the Libs holding up in the ACT as well?
* McMillan and Gippsland: The loss of Christian Zhara’s personal vote, esp in the Latrobe Valley, would have hurt Labor in both these seats. Also, Gippsland swung 10% to Labor between 1996 and 2001 (reason unknown), so perhaps there was room for a bounce-back.
* Who said any publicity isn’t good publicity? Tony Abbot had a hilariously gaffe-prone campaign, yet suffered one of the Liberal party’s smallest swings in his own seat. Warringah-ites must be a very forgiving bunch.
* I saw that Nicole Cornes ‘interview’ too: I think the SA ALP deserve some sort of award for finding the only person in the country who’s a bigger waste of space than Andrew Southcott to run in Boothby.
* We’ll have to think of a new name for the “Howard battlers” now they’ve moved back to Labor….”Kev’s Kath & Kim’s” perhaps?
* The Queensland result has been reported as an “extraordinary” and “remarkable” result: it’s not really. Barring Dawson, all these seats were held by Labor going into the 1996 election. The Libs got an enormous swing at that election which basically stuck until now, so there was always going to be a rebound.
* The Wentworth result proves how much better a party can do with an aggressive campaign rather than playing dead: 5-10% swings to Turnball in Darlinghurst and Paddington.
Antony’s page is now predicting 86.
Do we know what time Dolly is bleating today?
Nelson calls for return to ‘fundamental liberal values’
Liberal Party leadership hopeful Brendan Nelson says the party needs to recognise that Australians expect more from their government than economic management.
Dr Nelson said the Liberals would need to articulate a “human and social” vision if they were to recover from the weekend’s humiliating election defeat.
“Symbolism is extremely important,” he said.
“I think we also need to make sure that we ensure that the fundamental liberal values for which we have always stood, in terms of creating not just an economic vision of our future but also a human and a social one, are no less important to us than getting the economic fundamentals right.”
Anyone know the deal with Fisher? It looks as though radio bird Caroline Hutchence preferenced labour and liberal equally. all the pretence in the daily about her trying to knock off Peter Slipper and it looks as though she helped him keep his seat. I know my mum voted for her if i was her i’d feel stooged a bit.
Interesting booth data from Lingiari: in communities affected by the NT intervention, the ALP vote was as high as 94%.
A ringing rejection of Brough’s policy.
ESJ,
1. Assumes a uniform swing.
2. Assumes there is no boundary changes between now and then.
But, yes, Libs only need 49% to win if an election were held tomorrow.
Two questions out of this thread for me.
Didn’t the SA branch of the party want Nicole Corne’s husband, Graham Cornes (popular former footballer) to run but when he declined she put her hand up?
Next time they should get Graham to run.
Also, I have a concern that the flow of Green preferences to us for this election. Does this mean that “the piper must be paid” and those far Left lunatics are going to start to make demands of Kevin Rudd?
This just hit my inbox, not sure where it originated:
“On Saturday 24 November at 3.30pm I arrived at Epping West Public School on the Rights At Work bus where the then Prime Minister John Howard was also in attendance.
As I walked into the polling booth with a bright orange Rights At Work t-shirt about to see the PM not sure how to make this situation a success rather than an uncomfortable crossing of paths a smart alec Liberal worker offered me a Liberal Party how to vote which I happily took.
What happened next is a piece of political history.
I waited while the PM signed autographs for some kids. He then looked up and said “Nice to see you John. Is the top lip just for this month?”
I replied “Yes I’m doing Movember.”
I then asked him if he would sign the how to vote I had been given by the Liberal Party worker. He said “Yes” and I passed it over.
He wrote on it and then passed the how to vote back and said “Nice to meet you.”
I thanked him and walked back to the bus in absolute amazement.
He wrote the following:
“To John
Warm Wishes
& not enough votes
John Howard”
In light of the fact that this is only the second time in history that a Prime Minister has lost an election and his seat, this will remain a precious piece of history.
Regards, John Robertson
Secretary, Unions NSW
Level 3, Trades Hall
4 Goulburn Street
SYDNEY NSW 2000″
The two worst ALP candidates this election were Nicole Cornes and George Newhouse: both Boothby and Wentworth were winnable.
On the other hand, Darren Cheeseman and Mike Symon, written off by most people here as morons, won.
I know it doesn’t figure highly in the minds of most of you but for a labor supporter to live in both the Hume(Fed) and Burrinjuck(state) electorates wher both Libs and nats have firmly entrenched positions it was significant to us that Hume is now on a 3.4% margin to Alby Shultz. Having been alongside the Eden -Monaro electorate and witness to the electoral largesse lavished on them we in Hume look forward to being a Marginal next time round.
HH,
Ironic isnt it that Maccas guy and SAS guy go down and the real hacks get up?
I thought of another “Any publicity is good publicity” winner: Andrew Laming, who may still hold his seat despite single-handedly taking out two of his colleagues over Shreddergate.
Any publicity is good publicity, Case Against: Jackie Kelly, who seems to have gone from Liberal party hero to The Woman Who Single-Handedly Cost Howard Victory (TM) in less than a week…
The near parity on the primary vote is interesting, does anyone know whether this is the slimmest / closest margin ever achieved for a party which won government?
How long do we think it is before one of the Lib leadership candidates announces that we should say ‘Sorry’ to indigenous Australians?
And who will get there first?
Still got those mischievous rose coloured glasses on ESJ! As someone who was disillusioned with the ALP for a long time, I look at the team that they have/are assembling with great hope.
RE: Boothby and Cornes. Tom Koutsantonis took a bullet for Kevin Foley on this yesterday (Monday) in accepting full responsibility for the debacle. Foley’s limited mental faculties were out to lunch when when he cooked up this hair brained scheme, I supposed he imagined it would elevate him in the empty head social circles in which he moves.
The concern for Labor in SA is the dearth of talent in the SA Labor, typified by the ascendancy of Foley as the heir apparent to Rann, those with talent and ability are attracted to the bright lights of Canberra.
Labor’s dominance in SA is largely a result of the even shallower gene pool from which the Liberals draw, where Dolly Downer is the self proclaimed intellectual giant.
ESJ,
I think it is clear that the 2010 election will have a lot more marginal seats on both sides – the Libs look like having about 6 seats on 1.5% and less, with Labor having a similar number.
watching pyne on LL lastnight crapping on like he wants to be PM. all i could think of was yr toast net time on yr 1 % margin. damn shame mia missed out though.
Gunns has suspended trading on the ASE and has announced a statement is imminent.
At least the next Liberal PM won’t have been born in 1939 and won’t have been shaped by the ’40s and ’50s.
Further to Socrates link at number 27, I recommend that those who haven’t done so have a read of Phillip Adam’s column in the Australian today.
Australians did the right thing on Saturday. I remember the 1950’s when there were large numbers of immigrants from Southern Europe, and many of these weren’t treated well. The Whitlam years didn’t last long enough to develop a sense of social inclusion but the seed was certainly sown. I think the best years in living memory were during the time of Bob Hawke. I hope Rudd can replicate that.
Looking at the way the pre-polls and postals are flowing in, the Liberals will win almost all the “photo finishes”.
Jackie Kelly – along with her idiot husband – should be rewarded with a plumb diplomatic posting. Seeing as though they are both great fans of Middle Eastern culture, Lebanon or Iraq would suit them well.
ESJ: the “Maccas Guy” is still 300 odd votes ahead in Herbert, and according to another person commenting on another thread, the postals will favour him 58-42.
@Socrates 26
My question was posed tongue-in-cheek; blame me for not being particularly funny though
@All
As a former (but long disillusioned) AMA member, I have to say that Brendan Nelson back in the day was the standout AMA President of the last generation, drawing attention to important public health issues including indigenous health. His career as a Liberal politician has been less distinguished, but I reckon apart from his obvious flaw (i.e., boring as bats**t), the Liberals could do a lot worse than choose him. And that, even though the last Liberal leader-doctor (Flegg, in Qld) has proven to be an abject failure.
Kroger from Lateline, 2 November
“There may be people smarter than me in the political world that basically say you can’t get to 16 seats, that you can be 53-47 or closer on election day – which people think is going to happen – and that Labor can’t get to 16 because some of the marginals are out of their reach.”
I agree with The Speaker @ 58. It’s not looking great for Labor in all of those seats.
Re: the poor showing in the ACT that was almost certainly due to Rudd and Swan hammering the razor gang line in the last few weeks of the campaign. It got a lot of publicity in Canberra. The ACT economy was devastated in 1996 when Howard came in and did just that. You can’t blame them for being a little reluctant to experience that all over again.
I thought Kerrie Tucker was in with a brilliant chance of picking up Humphries’s seat until that act of utter stupidity on the behalf of the ALP.
You’d think that weighing things up a friendly Senate was worth more than the handful of votes they would receive by bleating about having a razor gang.
I do think the public service is in need of some serious reorganisation at the very least, mind you.
Misty
As a servant of the crown, i don’t think many of us are/were particularly worried about the ‘razor gang’ comment. We know how it works…the new govt comes in, fires the old SES (which bloats under any govt) and installs their new people.
The rest of us just get on with our jobs….
Comments 20, 37. The ‘docters wives’ had moved to Labor well before this election. Maybe the Liberal camapign was about winning back ‘Republican Liberals’, Turnbull excelled in this Howard did not.
Re: Longman
I’ve heard the following reasons/excuses
1. Nuclear reactor on Bribie Island
2. Longman has a lot of single mothers who Brough alienated by work for welfare
3. There are a number of new housing estates from Caboolture through to Mango Hill. The electorate is mortgage belt like Lindsay. Work choices went down badly there.
4. The Kevvie effect
Gunn’s has suspended trading on the ASX, pending an announcement which will be made by Thursday (ABC Online). Any thoughts? Couldn’t be a reaction to a new political landscape, could it?
sunnyboy @ 67,
I read somewhere on an earlier blog that Brough had some family problems. Were they a factor?
17 re Curtin in 43:
I think that was also the election when Eddie Ward brought out the Brisbane Line against the Tories, unless it was the one after.
Yo ho ho @ 65 as someone who lived eight years of their life in the ACT I beg to differ.
You may not have been but plenty of people with weaker political affiliations are affected by things like that.
Tucker needed voters to actively switch their Senate votes from Humphries to her or the ALP. The switch from Coalition to the ALP is perhaps an easier one than a switch from Coalition to Green. In the end she picked up a lot of votes, some from Humphries but mostly from the ALP itself. The ALP failed to pick up some of those swinging more conservative types so Humphries held his seat.
I think Rudd’s threat of a razor gang on the public servants was what cost the greens the ACT senate position
A-C
If you’re talking about at any election… no in 1987, for instance the gap was only 0.15%.
If you’re talking about at any ‘change of government’ election, the gap’s certainly smaller at this election than the ‘96 election, but I’m not sure you can really compare much due to the rise of the Greens . Also the drop in the Nationals vote was substantially less than the Liberal Party’s vote.
Interesting to note is that this is the best primary vote result for the ALP since 1993 and the worst for the Liberal Party since 1990.
Can’t help myself, wasn’t going to post anymore! My theory about doctors’ wives is that they swung in 2004, and there weren’t anymore wives to swing in 2007. I noticed too that they (based on a quick look at the swings) voted for the Greens in 2004 and Labor in 2007.
Thank God for the “f—-ing Chinese” (as described by a Lib staffer who blamed them for Howard’s loss in Bennelong). My faith in my own ethnicity has been restored!
Does anyone know why 75% of votes were counted Sat night from 6PM to 11.30PM….and only about 4% since ???
Oh No – the Labor margin is small!
Maybe the RuddStar should concede?
Maybe everyone meant to vote for the tories!
I thin a win is a win and the tories should get over it.
Actually I don’t care if they don’t get over it.
Ron Brown – I dunno. But Antony will NOT be happy.
Piers Akerman, writing in the Daily Telegraph on Tuesday, 27 November, confirms what most of us knew – he doesn’t know what principle means. Akerman writes pompously: “Costello’s principle, if not only role in this changeover, would be to call a party meeting at which he would declare the leadership vacant.” Poor Piers, if he had used the shorter word main, he would not have changed the meaning or exposed his ignorance.
71 You’re spot on Misty. The Razor Gang that had a devastating effect on Canberra was Malcom Frasers’ when 20,000 lost jobs and supressed the local economy. It’s a very different place now in private/public mix. Many see a cut to the PS as opportunity for private jobs.
Even if the seats are reasonably close, try putting a 53% vote for the LNP into a pendulum, that’s the moral authority the ALP has.
Rudd on 2UE with John Laws at the moment. Gee he sounds good. Here’s hoping he makes a top class PM.
in fact , the aec site still shows Howard’s seat Sat night’s count of 79.09% ?
@ 43, DLP Said…….”November 27th, 2007 at 9:49 am Also, I have a concern that the flow of Green preferences to us for this election. Does this mean that “the piper must be paid” and those far Left lunatics are going to start to make demands of Kevin Rudd?”
Whatever the price turns out to be, it won’t be within cooee of the massive rural seats’ welfare payments which the “Left Lunatics” called the National Party extort from the Liberal Party both in open ongoing “development” handouts and in their incessant covert regional funding slush-fund rorts.
The Nats’ Deputy PM uses these bribes to keep their seats from being hived off by former party members who become “Independents” when they lose pre-selection or don’t feel they were given a big enough slice of the agri-business welfare pie.
Only need to look at how little assistance an Equine Flu devastated area like the Labor seat of Randwick will get for a similar “natural disaster” as a drought, despite E.I. being caused by the Howard Government’s incompetence due to lack of thorough checks on imported horses.
At least the ‘Lunatics” to the left of Labor are not like the Liberals’ welfare Lunatics in a formal Coalition where they are simply gifted a proportionate number of the government’s ministers to clearly undeserving Nat’s in comparison with some Lib younger members stuck on the backbenches. In turn, this makes it much harder to facilitate younger talent up through the ranks and avoid running out of ideas.
Re 50,
VoterBoy of Over the Water Says:
Not sure but IF Rudd does this from Parliament (when it happens), he will force the Coalition to accept it by having them sit there while it happens or force them to look like the biggest lot of idiots ever if they walk out.
Ron Brown, they still have not counted postals and provisionals.
Good on Rudd for making the final pilgrimage to the Golden Microphone.
Hey, Lawsie deserves one last forelock-tug from a PM before checking into a former radio-jock’s power-addicted rehab facility.
Howard would have been on there getting all choked-up by his own profound humility while having a natta with Lawsie on Monday morning if he’d won.
So William, why is Howard’s election victory in 1996 considered to be a landslide when it delivered him a swing of 5% and 29 seats (with the Coalition), yet the ALP victory in 2007 can’t be considered a landslide, even though it had a HIGHER swing to them (6%) and delivered just about the same amount of seats (28)? I’m baffled.
Ron Brown @ 75
The AEC people and party scrutineers are recounting the original ballots first before the postals. The Sydney media have mentioned that Howard has no scrutineers on duty for the Bennelong recount, tellingly.
Ron Brown @ 75
I surmise this the big recount is done first because it would take a couple of days to, for instance, transfer votes from people who voted outside their electorates back to the correct counting centre.
Spiros: “The Labor + Green primary vote exceeded 50%. This is, I think, the first time in Australian history that the left of centre primary vote has exceeded half the total. It is a hugely significant event.”
Thats my major take on Election 07 too. And the Megalogenis thesis coming to fruition (the future belongs to new demographics, woman, migrants)
On postals: my ALP staffer mate tells me the Libs were WAY more organised on postals.
ALP needs together that act together next time.
PS Unless Im reading it wrong, the actual primaries are 43.95 v 41.83 (not 42.68)
??
Hmm, can’t find Sportingbet’s book on the Liberal ‘leadership’ stoush. (That word is so oxymoronic in that context, isn’t it?)
I have long known Hendo was a w#nker but honestly, the arrogance of his column today is astounding. Vacillating over how he has ’suspected’ exactly what was in Howard’s head for the last 11 years, then he decides that since he had the astonishing insight that rudd should step up last year, he can follow it up with the even more amazing call that mal should be shoved into the liberal leadership.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/if-only-id-retire-too/2007/11/26/1196036809908.html
IT was a Ruddslide in my view . Its only the stellar polls earlier in the campaign confusing anybody on that score.
So many people are feeling sorry for Nicole Cornes after her interview with Tony Jones on election night. I believe such feelings derive mainly from a sexist origin. If Cornes wasn’t a woman, especially a young and attractive woman, she wouldn’t be garnering one percent of this sympathy.
Francis – Henderson’s soothsaying also included the fable that after this election no one would be paying attention to opinion polls anymore. He’s an inwards looking blockhead, not an analyst.
Saw it reported somewhere today that the postals that had been counted so far were “permanent” postal voters (who would be mostly elderly or in remote areas) – if this is true you’d expect that batch to strongly favour the Coalition.
Francis – Here’s some advice – Don’t read Henderson or listen to him on the telly – to do so is a waste of time.
Is it just me, or is Senator Erica Betz voice even more annoying now he is in opposition?
Gerard Henderson said that he was smart because he didn’t provide predictions before the event. The only predictions you will ever get out of Gerard are out of hinsight, and that he was ever so smart for doing things this way.
What a tool.
By “landslide” they probably mean the final majority of the government over the opposition, not the total swing and seats won.
Labor had a smaller majority going into 1996, so Howard’s 5% swing netted him a majority of about 46 (97-51 I think?). Rudd needed a bigger swing just to win government, so 5% will only give him a majority of about 24 (let’s say 86-62). Hence 2007 is a comfortable win, but not a landslide on par with 1996.
Its Eric Abetz, by the way. He is/was a Costello backer, and I don’t think he is any more annoying, if for no other reason that he was already scoring 11/10 on the annoying scale while in Government.
James over on the McEwan post says they have found 3000 votes from working class areas that were accidently sent ot Scullin
Go Rob Mitchell.
Everyone knows his nickname is Erica.
paul k if you are here
the libs may be in opposition for a while yet
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/27/2102325.htm
Minchin warns Labor on Senate mandate
Liberal Senator Nick Minchin says the new Labor Government should not expect blanket upper-house support for its new legislative program.
Labor’s incoming leaders Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard say the party has won a mandate to scale back the WorkChoices legislation, and is not prepared to negotiate any changes in the Senate.
But Senator Minchin says that when it was in power, the Howard Government also claimed a mandate for taxation changes, the sale of Telstra, and changes to unfair dismissal laws.
In regard to the Bennelong count:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/pms-people-didnt-think-we-had-it-in-us/2007/11/26/1196036812278.html
“A spokeswoman for the commission said new counting was unlikely until later this week”
Why is that ?
It’s funny it’s taking a while to get used to this. The headline on SMH is ‘Praise for battler Banton’ and then underneath that the words ‘Prime Minister’ and my inner monologue is already ranting ‘oh that scumbag would have choked him to death himself if he thought it would get a good headline’ and then i read ‘Kevin Rudd’ and, woops, that’s right, the PM now has a halo instead of a yawning black soul, remember
I’ll presume soon the reflex gag at the words ‘prime minister’ will be gone… but i wonder how long it will take to come back again….
Hugh Mackay’s follow up to his great piece of a couple of months ago about awaking from a slumber:
“We are awake, now. We have changed. We are feistier, less acquiescent, more engaged. We are hungry for inspiration.
The big picture is coming back into focus. We are still struggling against feelings of powerlessness, but there’s renewed optimism that we might be able to do something to improve the state of the world – in the local neighbourhood and on the planet at large.”
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/sleepers-awoke-from-slumber-of-indifference/2007/11/26/1196036809914.html
We are really having ourselves on when we talk about landslides in Australia, last weekends TPP was 53.5/46.5. In other words if 4 people in every hundred had voted a different way the result would have been the other way, so lets stop all this talk about crushing victories and smell the roses in a Labor governed ( 70% trade union approved) Aus.
What Rudd has to do is bring in laws that will facilitate the underlying support for trade unions being translated in union OK cards. For all the Hawke governments pro union sentiment union membership significantly decline under that government.
If Rudd is serious about strengthening the organizational capacity of the Labor Party into an the election winning machine it once was then he must facilitate the modernisation of its industrial wing.
Australia was less than 3.6% away from witnessing the annihilation of its trade union movement, no wonder they fought as fiecly as they did.
Speaking of coalition bloodletting, its one thing to talk about leadership and portfolios, but what about the “unrepresentative swill”? A number one or two Senate position for Labor or Liberal is basically giving someone a job for six years. Will there be any pressure on these sitting Liberal senators to resign and put in better performers? In the era of Howard control post 2004, the Senate has been a rubber stamp providing no input, and watching a fax machine is more enjoyable.
Again, the Liberal Senate ranks are not exactly brimming with intellect and charisma. Minchin is at least diplomatic, but after that Barnaby Joyce is their next best. How does someone like Bill Heffernan survive the “barren years” without a benefactor? Some of the losers must be looking jealously at these seat holders now.
The question is whether the Libs and Nats act as a coalition. Barnaby Joyce has already signalled he is prepared to consider Labor legislation on it’s merits. A DD will not work out too well for the Nats and would probably increase the number of Green Senators.
I reckon Labor will get their legislation through without the Libs. Minchin is about to learn about relevance deprivation syndrome.
GG
I agree – Fielding too would have to be suicidal to want a DD. I was more interested in the general question of how the Libs rebuild themselves. So far peopel have only talked about the leadership and candidates. But I think their senate list also needs a hard look too.
105. The way counts usually work is that on the night there is a big staff who do a 2pp count. In close seats the votes are all recounted the following week, by a much smaller staff. This happens before pre-polls and postals are even looked at.
This method means that we usually get a result on election night, but it also keeps the cost down and ensures accuracy in close seats. During the second count it’s not unusual to have more scrutineers in the room than AEC counters, so if there are no Libs watching the Bennelong count everything else is a formality.
I was just looking at the latest data on Andrew Landeryou’s Election Map and there are 13 seats within 1%. Ok I know that as the election progresses it is hard to peg back the results If within 0.5% it is worth a recount. BUT 1% at this stage is like skating on thin ice.
a href=”http://ocdevelopment.googlepages.com/OCMap.html”>Andrew Landeryou’s Election Map has a filter pan option. You click on the media stop button and if you change the margin setting or select the pendulum sort option then hit play it loads up a selection of electorates which you can then use the left and right media buttons to pan through the electorates. It takes a while to load the data but once leaded the results are easy to view.
Andrew Landeryou’s Election Map has a filter pan option. You click on the media stop button and if you change the margin setting or select the pendulum sort option then hit play it loads up a selection of electorates which you can then use the left and right media buttons to pan through the electorates. It takes a while to load the data but once leaded the results are easy to view.
107
Pancho
Yeah, Mackay was on the money with his ‘waking up’ call a while back. I knew he was right then, you could feel the sap rising and a sense of renewal in the air. Howard was done for, and the Labor campaign as tight as a drum, marched him off the political stage with military precision.
It was truly historic stuff, with lots of political deaths and hari-kiri and some tragically poignant passings, like Banton and Price.
We won’t be forgetting Kevin 07 for a very, very, very long time.
I don’t like how NSW-centric the leadership contenders for the Liberal Party is.
I think we need a leader or at least deputy from States other than Victoria and NSW.
Francis says:
“I’ll presume soon the reflex gag at the words ‘prime minister’ will be gone… but i wonder how long it will take to come back again….”
In my own case I’m expecting
1st term – happy camper
2nd term – mildy distrubed about the rise of spin over substance – but that’s politics – so ok
3rd term – hey fella you’re spinning the wheels now
4th term – I don’t want to go there – its a dark place
This is pretty much the path Steve Bracks was on – but he wisely went out on top – as did Beattie.
Glen 117,
I agree and think the shift to a Qld focus has done Labor good. Looking at both Liberals and Labor, it seems to me that the most toxic, combative, ideologically entrenched branches of both parties are in Sydney, and they would do well to look outside. To be non-partisan about it, I similarly think that the NSW State Labor government is one of Australia’s weakest, surviving only because of even weaker opponents. Surely both sides have better in other states, as Labor proved.
In this respect I suppose Julie Bishop would be a good move, tying into the one palce where the Libs have some genuine strength. Not so sure about Robb though.
Glen, is that your pro Julie Bishop call redirected through an equity rather than attraction channel?
Labor leaders seem to have been remarkably adept at reading the writing on the wall.
Let’s hope it remains so. I’m sure Kev would be astute enough to recognise in another the sympotms of longevity.
As for himself, that’s a question we won’t need to ask for at least 7 or 8 years.
Bishop aside, I still agree with the general point though Glen. Half the former inner cabinet came from north shore electorates within walking distance of each other.
Was Howard’s victory in ‘96 a landslide? If that was then this surely is.
As Melbcity points out, there are 13 seats within 1%. This means that determination of whether 2007 is a landslide cannot be dependent on the final number of seats. It matters zilch whether Team Rudd wins a half-dozen less knife-edge marginal seats than the 95 which Team Howard won in 1996. Just changing demographics alone could cause all 13 to fall the other way by 2010.
Therefore, I reckon that the relevant benchmark for a landslide is the 2 Party Preferred percentage:
In 1996, Team Howard got 53.63%, and that was widely accepted as a landslide by all sides of politics.
As of two minutes ago, the AEC virtual tally room has Labor on 53.24%.
Assuming Labor’s final % is lower because of postal votes going against them, I’m still calling it a landslide if Team Rudd’s final tally is above 53%.
.
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Long Live the Rudder of the Nation. May his reign be a long one.
It’s stupid to have 3 leadership contenders from NSW when we’ve got just 12 MPs there i mean seriously wake up. Labor have had since Keating, a sandgroper, a victorian, another NSWman and a QLDer. Since we need $$ and WA is our last bastion it would be crazy for us not to have Julie Bishop in the leadership team, i think Julie will run for the leadership if she can win if not she’ll go for deputy i thinks that’s whats taking her so long. She’d have a good shot with possibly 11 MPs plus WA Senators = 30% of Liberal Parliamentary members but we’ll see.
On Rudd and stepping aside before overstaying his welcome, I think he has a much better chance of doing it than Howard. Reason: Rudd had, and could have again, a life outside of politics. Howard didn’t and couldn’t. Moving on after 10 years for Howard was terrifying, for Rudd it might be a relief.
There’s a message in this for both parties, don’t go too far left or right otherwise the voters will ‘have you’.
Glen,
You have the hots for Bishop real bad.
Gary
The real danger lately in Australia and the US, is that some leaders seemed to beleive that they could do that and take the people with them. Manipulative buggers.
So you think the only thing Julie would bring is her good looks Paul, women are more than their looks you know
Glen,
I’m not the one who is obsessed with her. There isn’t a day when you don’t go on about her. I couldn’t care less what she looks like.
If you call that an obsession than many of you lot would be obsessed with KR lol.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22829277-661,00.html
Libs leadership: just $9.49
All those saying this wasn’t a landslide, get your heads out of your as*es. 6% swing, nearly 30 seats. It was a LANDSLIDE.
yep Glen…if they choose two from NSW its suicide…how deep can that hole get. Given the first term doenst matter and the previous Costello issues the leader will want a non-aspirational deputy. The choices are only WA, QLD or SA. The LIBS aslo need to do a me-too on the ‘female’ thing, to counter Julia and to shake the Abbott Vs ALL women factor. So your logic makes sense. Having said that to be serious about winning they need to be from QLD or VIC.
What a f’ing rip off!
Pancho @ 107
Thanks for the heads-up on MacKay’s article.
Mackay nailed the 2004 result on Skynews the day election was called because his social research groups had picked up no evidence of a mood for change.
A month ago on Skynews, MacKay said that his research showed a significant increase in people wanting a change in the nation’s priorities away from solely economic management. (Newspoll’s chief finally admitted this was true on Skynews this week, after denying it throughout the campaign.) Much of the shift to was due to Baby-boomers reviving their Sixties’ values.
Other than the fact that he’s always held a grudge against baby-boomers (nasty younger siblings I’d imagine), the bloke is a legend.
Our talent from QLD and VIC has been depleted not that we had much to begin with from there so i doubt we can do this unless Andrew zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Robb is deputy.
It needs to be Nelson and Bishop or Turnbull and Bishop IMHO.
Yes, but Glen, you forget about factions and such like.
Julie Bishop has scary eyes, and that has nothing to do with her gender. Michael Brissenden’s on ABC’s “7:30 Report” are just as scary. I reckon that even when sleeping, neither of them can close their eyes.
That Ebay add for Libeal leadership has got cheek! They want somene to pay them, and be the leader of the Liberal Party too! The price should be -$1,000,000.
This illustrates the fundamental philosophical problem the Liberals have with market solutions for everything, instead of a focus on badly needed skills. Rather than try to sell the leadership, they should be trying to advertise for a leader, since they clearly don’t have one
Our factions need to ask themselves do they wanna win again or f around like the 80s and get nowhere…they’ll come around…
I dunno Glen@142, the Alex Hawkes of the party don’t strike me as particularly open to such rational argumentation. I have a feeling its gonna get worse for your lot before it gets better.
Who cares who the Liberal leader is? Look at history, both state and federal. The Libs will lose the next election and dump whomever they choose now.
History would have said Rudd couldn’t win in 2007 and he did CC, id hold your tounge just for the time being…
While the LIBS are still getting news access at the moment, this will shortly dry out. The female face needs to be Bishop not Coonan. (senators in my opinion are nothing more than a single issue distraction in the overall scheme of things. As soon as they elect a leader they will know their place). Considering I know very little about Nelson hard for me to comment. Will he be able to get his face on the news? Turnball will have no probs with this aspect.
Glen,
But I said he would win in February – and I never wavered. You can laugh at me in one, two or three years if I am proved wrong.
I wouldn’t agree with Glen on many things, but this whole “Glen must have the hots for JB” malarkey really doesn’t wash, even as a joke, it’s just not funny. She may be okay as deputy, but the job of party leader is difficult enough without the additional burden of an increased number of transcontinental flights – remember Kimbo had the same problem. No, the leader will be from the east coast, and, as already noted, this time from NSW.
Glen, for once I agree with you totally. The Liberal factions will “come around” because the thirst for power is the greatest motivator.
Thus, Kroger on Skynews yesterday was saying you could immediately reform the Liberal Party by adopting some of the ALP model with the leadership group having more power to intervene in branch selections etc.
In NSW, I see O’ Farrell talking up the Lindsay culprits getting criminal charges this week, and Debnam’s Kyoto speech was very telling in last week.
Whether the factions will come around in time for next Fed. election is uncertain, but it’s clear that there won’t be wall-to-wall state and territory Labor governments in a few years.
Neither Brendan Nelson nor Tony Abbott would do anything to lift Liberal support. It has to be Malcolm Turnbull of those three. The profile of the deputy is less important because there is a behind-the-scenes role to do too, so some charismaless operator might be a good choice.
The first Labor Government to fall will be WA’s. 1) Labor did poorly there on Saturday. 2) The state government has made an unbelievable mess of education.
The laptop is on reserve battery power, so I will depart. I will return.
I see that Wayne Swan is going to open a Treasury office in Brisbane so he can run the economy and still be able to duck home for dinner.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22828312-5013650,00.html
Let’s just be done with it and move the whole capital to Brissie!
Sportingbet’s back up on the Lib vulture contest:
Malcolm Turnbull
1.18
Dr Brendan Nelson
3.60
Tony Abbott
9.00
Any Other Candidate
21.00
Julie Bishop
21.00
Danna Vale
21.00
So who will get the Liberal Party cadaver to feast upon for their moment in the sun?
The Liberal Party will had to adjust to not being the centre of attention. That will come as a shock to a lot of them.
They’ll soon realise that life in the Opposition isn’t fun and it’s hard work every day to even try and get a bit of attention. I still don’t think it’s completely sunk in yet but when it does that’s when the depression will sink in.
I think Mr Mackay (and all you who agree with him) are putting too much faith in Australians’ interest in politics. While the result was emphatic, I think you’ll find that most Australians’ views on reconciliation, border protection, immigration, drug reform, foreign relations and other non-economic issues remain the same as they were 24 months ago.
Australians will now retreat back into their day-to-day lives, and most will wait for the next interest rise, for which they will blame the previous administration. They won’t pay too much attention to the government saying sorry or other things of that nature, but if the economy goes south they will start to think the ALP is focussing on the wrong things, like they believed Keating was in his last term.
Finally, it is, of course, most insulting to most Australians, to suggest that the only reason they voted for Howard was some sort of induced coma. If Rudd deserved his victory, then Howard deserved his.
Hockey says that Rudd has the right to tear up Workchoices:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/27/2102325.htm
1) Why is Danna Vale even included as a possibility
2) Who’d be silly enough to bet on her?
Check this out:
[img]http://www.ozforums.com.au/uploads/140_liberal.jpg
From this address
http://www.liberal.org.au/info/multimedia/
Look at the dates on the top 3 videos:
“Goals for the Future”
Monday, 26 November 2007
“Making Australia Stronger”
Sunday, 25 November 2007
“The Liberals Plan to Grow Australia – Seniors”
Sunday, 25 November 2007
“The Liberals Plan to Grow Australia”
Sunday, 25 November 2007
Notice anything strange about these videos???
Well, there are 2 things:
1. they are POSITIVE messages, which we didn’t see very much on our television sets during the campaign; and
2. according to the Liberal’s websites THEY WERE POSTED A_F_T_E_R THE ELECTION!!!!!!!!
WTF?!?!?!
Who thought up this brilliant piece of campaigning?!?! Seriously, this is insanity!!! Is there some kind of “if you are hearing this, I have been [electorally] killed” message in there?!?!
My goodness.
LTEP,
That’s odd – Dana was at $34 yesterday, yet she’s fallen into $21 today. By implication, that means there have been people stupid enough to bet on her…
.
.
For Pete’s sake Meng, the whole teasing Glen about Julie thing has been going on for months and Glen has never complained and joked around as well. Most people know none of it is serious. You would have to be the only person to have said he is offended. Lots of the Posters here tease each other, especially late at night and if we’ve had a few drinks. God, do we always have to be politically correct?
Spiros @ 33 said [quote]The Labor + Green primary vote exceeded 50%. This is, I think, the first time in Australian history that the left of centre primary vote has exceeded half the total. It is a hugely significant event.[/quote]
I fail to see how you could call the ALP left of centre these days. There is a disturbing trend in Aus and world politics of parties drifting to the right. The fact that my beloved democrats (RIP) who are a centre-line party seem like raging loony-lefties compared to the ALP should give you a clue that the vast-vast-majority of people still are right of centre. A disturbing trend – I hope that Rudd will move his party back toward the left.
Amusing coincidence, from the GG from the week before the election:
November 12, 2007
APPARENTLY today is the start of national recycling week, which seems a little odd, given most Australians have been recycling every week for the past decade.
…yep, and they even recycled their government into the wheelie bins.
Agreed LTEP…wait till they realise they only the Opp leader and the deputy will be of any interest. The only time the others will get attention is when they stuff up.
To go off on a tangent, if the Nats go for McGauran, they will be in big trouble when the horseflu inquiry comes in and finds serious quarantine failures (as I believe it will). He was the minister in charge at the time.
Plus, he’s a terminal idiot.
Hard to know who else they’ve got though. They are terminal the Nats, someone ought to put them down.
I’ve heard Kay Hull may get the Nats leadership.
Nayto @ 162. The chances of PM Rudd moving Labor to the left are exactly zero. As PM Blair said, “We’re all Thatcherites now!”
Paul K,
Got no problem with your comment about Glen.
But about being “politically correct”.
It does no more good to throw that accusation to silence someone you disagree with than it was before “PC” came along to be calling people racist or sexist as a way of shutting them up.
By resorting to that, you undermined the strength of the point you made.
some have blogers have said the aec recount BEFORE doing the postals & pre-polls
Accept what you say but per aec there is only 77.84% counted out of 13,645,073
ie. 3 million and 23 thousand are UNCOUNTED
thats alot of pre polls & postals ??
Surely we should be referring to the Australian newspaper as the OG now -as in Opposition Gazette? They haven’t had time to get stuck into Labor yet, but we know it’s coming, sure as eggs.
Turnbull/Bishop would be the best option for the Libs -but not until after another pair has been sacrificed at the next election. Maybe they should give old Wilson a go. Let’s face it, he’s had more experience than anyone else. Tuckey/Ruddock -they’d be my nomination for a Liberal “Scream-Team” leadership ticket.
Ron, not everyone that’s enrolled votes.
Ron, a rule of thumb for our elections; 80% ordinary votes, 15% Sundry votes & 5 % no-show. And of course of that 95% turnout, 5% of them are informal. Undertsandably, the remoteness of the NT means much lower turnout.
#
171
Lose the election please Says:
November 27th, 2007 at 1:16 pm
Ron, not everyone that’s enrolled votes.
the 13,645,073 IS the number enrolled per the aec web site
the aec seeing are showing labor & Liberal 2PP total votes as 10,204,937
I do not get it that there are just over 3 million postal & pre polls & informals
anyone got an idea BECAUSE IF THE ELECTION WAS CLOSE , no one would know as of now who won
Ozy
I agree, though I’d prefer to call the Australian, the Land-Fill (LF) because for me its irrelevant, until they prove otherwise. Andrew Bolt has improved but as long as others can’t admit they were wrong, (and why is Overington even still on their staff?) then I won’t buy it. I don’t mean I want them to be pro-Labor either. I want balance and real research.
Of course Ron, don’t you remember them saying before the election that if it was close we wouldn’t know the result for a week/weeks?
It wasn’t close enough for the postals, pre-polls etc. to have an impact on the overall result (ie. who forms government).
172
stark world Says:
November 27th, 2007 at 1:17 pm
Ron, a rule of thumb for our elections; 80% ordinary votes, 15% Sundry votes & 5 % no-show.
are you saying 15% IS pre polls and postals ‘Stark World’?
Socrates: Do we even have such a newspaper in this country?? The Age probably comes closest, but the Murdoch press certainly doesn’t put a premium on journalistic research or integrity. We are not well served in Australia when it comes to our print media.
15% postals/pre-polls seems a little high. It’s more around 5-10% for the combined postals/pre-polls.
Informals tend to be around 8%.
Flynn is an interesting seat. Notionally it was NP but there has been a 9% swing to Labor and what was a Brick house looks like tumbling…
The SEC has posted stats on the number of postals votes issued. It includes a break down of Party Application and AEC applications. This is a factor that should be considered. Unfortunately there is no stats on Absentee and pre-poll votes issued. There should be by now,,,
Sorry SEC should be AEC
like I said “rule of thumb”… actual statistics will vary a little
http://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/HouseStateFirstPrefsByPartyByVoteType-12246-NAT.htm
Neilbris
Yes, perhaps that is why I spend so much time reading blogs and internet news sites, often BBC. A lot of blogs are written by people with PhDs who are leading figures in their field, whereas too many journos are too lazy/busy to research beyond the supeficial.
We do still buy the SMH (and Age occaisionally). They have some good writers, especially Kohler and Gittens on economics. I have enjoyed Annabel Crabb’s coverage of this campaign too.
I agree that overall, they follow too much a trend in journalism that annoys me: the “fairest” way to cover any story is to get a commentator representing the most extreme positions for and against the issue in question. So the nutbars (left and right) dominate debate. My academic wife has been asked by media to comment on issues in her field but the journalists in question wanted her to push a particular angle. She refused.
Nayto @ 162
God I hope that Mr Rudd doesn’t move us away from our current centre left position.
If he does it will cost him.
He won this election on being a economic “safe pair of hands” but delivering the right balance of social justice.
Labor is now the most centralist party in Australia. The domain of a long forgotten Liberal Party and an extinct Democrats.
We need to maintain a Rudd agenda not a Whitlam agenda.
PK @161
Perhaps you’re right and I have a humour deficit – but doesn’t an old joke get stale? I certainly wasn’t implying that the joke was offensive from a sexist or other angle, just that it doesn’t make me laugh. Anyhow, I won’t dwell on it if you won’t.
Glen I think there is only one serious contender with any credibility:
Kevin Andrews for Liberal Leader
#
178
Swing Lowe Says:
November 27th, 2007 at 1:34 pm
15% postals/pre-polls seems a little high. It’s more around 5-10% for the combined postals/pre-polls.
Informals tend to be around 8%.
aec says informals are 3.87% – give up ,got me where the 22.14% uncounted is
DLP: Labor is centre left now?? When did that happen?? Centrist maybe, centre right definitely, but there’s not much left of the Left. Hopefully they will resurrect their (and Australia’s) altruism and I certainly hope they show more respect for justice, inclusion and the rule of law. Don’t be too tough of Whitlam. His values were admirable and inspiring, though his administration was lacking. For all that he did help Australia to grow up and get over our regressive isolationism. He will remain a hero.
Socrates, I agree that Fairfax is still worth a read but sadly we only have Murdoch in Qld. You’re correct that the media have no interest in facts – only in controversy, hence the appeal to the nutters on each side of a debate. The blogs may be our saviours – and the MSM’s greatest challenge.
Has anyone other than kyangadac @ 7 noticed O’Connor?
TUCKEY, Wilson Liberal 28,574 45.25 -8.00
GARDINER, Philip Warren Nationals 11,603 18.37 +8.93
ROSE, Dominic Australian Labor Party 12,896 20.42 +1.85
Is there any good reason to think Gardiner can’t pull ahead of Rose on minor preferences and then defeat Tuckey with Labor preferences?
On O’Connor, well there goes my prediction for seat with the smallest swing! Damn 3 cornered contests. Looking at the Nats and Libs, its hard to know who is the more desperate for an extra seat. I’d hardly miss Tuckey though.
In 20 years , what will history say about Howard , Costello & Downer
My view is
Howard: lost his seat , rip of work choices , couldn,t see climate, wasted the boom
Costello: no ticker in office, then did a dummy spit , bought votes with boom gains
Downer: known as Dolly Downer , in black stockings whilst
oversaw $300 million in AWB bribes to our military enemy
If Wilson Tuckey goes, who will be the next leader of the Liberals?:P
William, it depends on whether a significant number of Greens voters go against the HTV and preference the Rose above Gardiner.
Neilbris… I’d say Labor are centre left. It really is a personal way of looking at it. What’s left to you probably appears far left to others. What’s centre to you probably appears centre-left to others.
All these left/right dichotomies however, I think are essentially useless and hold us back.
Ron, history is rarely kind to the conservatives. I think your summation of these three will be about right.
Dear William
The Greens are currently polling 6.68%, with others polling 9.23%. The Green vote will ensure that the ALP doesn’t finish 3rd, and the leakage from the Green+ALP+Others may be enough to see Tuckey over the 50% mark from his current primary of 45.25%. Very unlikely Tuckey loses (sadly).
Kevin Andrews has all the personality of a ironing board.
Ron using the rule of the thumb lets say
Enrollment is 100,000 for an electorate
Count of the ordinary Votes will most likely come to 80,000
(this includes informal because it’s still a counted vote)
Which means that 20,000 (20%) enrollments are still to be counted at this point.
LETP, I don’t think I’ve ever been thought of as far left. Of course, these days with the ALP following the Thatcher road I may well now be far left. I remain hopeful though that, as I said above, Labor will continue to be the party of altruism, combing compassion and justice with its managerialism. I don’t like the “economic conservative” tag (though I understand the realpolitik behind it). Labor should never hide its progressive credentials.
Of course. Yes, agreed, false alarm from O’Connor – unless non-Greens minor party votes lock in extremely tightly behind the Nationals.
re 155,
Lose the election please Says:
Yes, and life in Opposition WILL include passing work chocies legislation in the Senate. If they continue on their obstructionist path indicated today by Senators like Minchin, they are signing their own death warrant with a DD election.
Im a bit annoyed that nothing ever changes on the AEC senate tally for VIC.
Also, as noted above: AEC has coalition primary at 41.8, not 42.6.
Has PB got more advanced figures? Or does the post above need correction?
Or am I bananas?
Neilbris…
No, they shouldn’t hide it but they should be careful to sell it in the right way. I’m sure you understand the dangers of callously pushing a progressive platform. I’m also sure you know what will happen if they don’t sell it properly, the Liberals would be back in again.
Remember Howard campaigned by saying Keating governed for minority interests and the elites, while he stood ‘for all of us’. This is the danger a party opens themselves up to if they’re seen to be pushing the agenda’s of particular groups (eg. refugees, same sex couples). It’s also why Labor tends to push their more socially progressive policies at the beginning of terms, so they’re forgotten by the time the next election rolls around.
William,
Don’t know if anyone else has asked it, but will we soon get an additional picture (one of Rudd) at the top of the home page?
Are the CDP (3% of primaries) in O’Connor preferencing the Libs or the Nats?
If they preference the Libs, it’s all over. If they preference the Nats, then the Nats should get over the top of Labor if the Greens prefs split 50/50…
Ron Brown (169) As someone who has been a Divisional Returning Officer with the Australain Electoral Commission I can provide the following information:
1. There IS a recount of all booth figures back at the office, usually commencing on the Monday following polling day.
2. Pre-poll votes come in two types – those issued in the home Division and those issued in other Divisions or overseas.
3. Most of the pre-polls issued in the home Division are opened and counted on the Sunday after polling day.
4. About the middle of the week after polling day, there is an exchange between Divisions of all the absent votes, together with the postals and pre-polls which were not issued in the home Divisions. This is a massive operation to co-ordinate and involves sending everything to a central location where it is all re-sorted and sent on to the appropriate Divisions. The home Divisions usually receive this material for processing on the Thursday.
5. Absent, postal and pre-poll votes are all in envelopes and before the envelopes are opened there has to be a check of all the signatures and then the names have to be marked off the roll. For those names not found on the roll (quite a lot) a full investigation of the eligibility of the voters has to be carried out, before each vote is either accepted or discarded.
6. There is also another smaller category of votes in envelopes, called unenrolled, or provisional vores. These are issued by the home Division’s poling booths to electors whose names cannot be found on the roll. All of these votes have to be checked back at the office for eligibility. This eligibility check is usually done on the Sunday and Monday after polling day It takes a lot of time and the votes are usually added to the count early in the week.
7. Regarding the overall numbers of postals, pre-polls and absents, these have been increasing massively over the past few elections. The involvement of the parties now in sending out masses of postal vote applications (once unheard of) has been a big factor in this.
8. Ron questions whether the 22% of votes yet to be counted can be accounted for in terms of the above mentioned types of votes and the answer is an unqualified – YES. It is a pains taking and often frustrating process for all concerned and it cannot be rushed.
Sorry this has been so long but thought it might help for those interested. Feel free to ask any questions.
Libs to vote for leader on Thursday
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22822535-5013650,00.html
7:30 Report and Lateline will probably have the leading contenders on tonight.
#206
That should get them killer ratings
Still more interesting than Kev answering his own questions RW.
Glen,
You’ve got at least 3 years of Kev answering his own questions. So you better get used to it…
That is one thing i wont get used to and neither will ya’ll lol.
#206
Looks like I’ll get a few tasks done and an early night this evening.
LAMING, Andrew Liberal 35,864 50.02%
83.35% counted Lamington is ahead hussar!
Btw, Maxine looks set for the back bench…
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22830039-5001021,00.html
Swan – Labor ahead by 16 votes 78.53% counted, the tories are doing well on postals
Well we got close in Kalgoorlie. Even won Cable Beach for the first time. Next time, as we St.Kilda supporters are wont to say.
‘Labor View from Broome’
205
Darn Says:
November 27th, 2007 at 2:25 pm
thanks mate for the inside aec info
We now know that due to the increase in postal & prepolls (plus absentees) that 22% is a feasible figure for this group
Heaven help us if we ever have a real cliff hanger
Glen,
Labor is expected to do better on postals (good enough to win the seat) in Bowman.
See the Bowman thread for details.
“The former foreign affairs minister, Alexander Downer, that old flirt, showed a tantalising flash of leg yesterday but eventually threw in the towel on the 7.30 Report last night.
His comments during the day were laced with the trademark Downer graciousness and tact.
“You can imagine, after I’ve been the Opposition leader once before and I’ve been the foreign minister for so long, I don’t sort of leap out of bed in the morning thinking I’d love to be the Opposition leader now. I find it a bit hard to get enthusiastic about it.”
Well, when you put it like that.
It’s kind of hard to imagine where he’s going to find post-political work with an attitude like that. Can you picture it?
“Mr Downer, thank you for applying for the position of chief executive. The board is pleased you could be here for this interview.”
“Yeah, well, you know. I’ve been the foreign affairs minister for 11½ years, so as you can probably imagine, the prospect of running your two-bit investment bank is not exactly a big thrill or anything.”
Luckily, as Tony “People Skills” Abbott reminded us on grainy video footage during the campaign, there are plenty of jobs out there, so I guess even chronic recalcitrants are in with a fighting chance.”
Annabel Crabb
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/nothing-makes-sense-in-this-new-world-disorder/2007/11/26/1196036812250.html
Well the Tories look set to win most of those undecideds thankgod!
Anyway we’ll see who comes out ontop soon, they’re obviously doing counting today.
For John Howard to beat Maxine McKew in Bennelong he will need to receive roughly 67.37% of postals and pre-polls.
Either Andrew Robb or Christopher Pyne would be perfect deputy Liberal leaders – neither of them have any chance of becoming leader.
Not going to happen, he is currently getting about 52%
Thanks Darn, excellent info well presented.
As for McKew, I think she needs some hardening in the ways of the big house, but will undoubtedly be a great asset to the government.
219
Glen Says:
November 27th, 2007 at 2:38 pm
Well the Tories look set to win most of those undecideds thank god!
So you are reduced to this as ” a win ”
after not only losing the election but also having your 2 hero’s leave in humiliation
Well i dont think they were humiliated by i guess your trots friends have told u they were but a seat is a seat and we need as many as possible no duh!
Glen at 212, It’s not Laming, it’s Leming. Those little creatures that follow the leader to oblivion. It sounds like the perfect new name for the Liberal party.
Vote 1 for the Lemmings!!
Oh and the Gnats- pesky little bugs
Did anyone mention that the Qld Libs have a leadership spill?
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Queensland-Liberals-seek-new-leader/2007/11/27/1196036868097.html
LETP, I don’t think even Glen would claim Howard will hold it now.
For Liberals Bennelong is the lost seat that none dare speak its name. After all, with an average income of just $1510 per week, or 1.4 times the national average (from the Australian) it is such a marginal seat. LOL
Ron, well said,
A good guide is to look at the Fraser/Howard years. Fraser is seen as fine human being but the government dithered about key reforms and wasted their time in office. It took Hawke and Keating to push things forward.
Howard’s reform of the tax base is his only lasting positive reform (maybe gun reform as well). Getting a broad-based revenue base is rather important to underpin an effective govt – but heck, no-one is going to get teary remembering it.
Howard’s corrosive effect on all our public institutions and his shameless demonising of minorities and the vulnerable is how many if not most will remember him.
Howard losing his seat, as Keating put it, is the exclamation point at the end.
Guys the Labor Party historically does not win with postals (no history on pre polls)
Sat night the 2PP was 6.03%
but even with the trickle of votes counted Sunday , Monday and today
I have watched it DROP by 0.01% EVENLY TIMEWISE ever since…now 5.97%
When the remaining 22% uncounted IS counted I expect 2PP will be 52.75% approx
ie I would NOT expect to win any of the 7 doubtful seats (6 LCP and 1 ALP)
still gives Labor 83 seats…would you have taken 83 Sat morning ? …I would have
LETP@202 Yes I do understand the need for wisdom in selling the message. Yes Howard did accuse Keating of pandering to sectional interests. Then he became PM and pandered to his own sectional interests while victimising the sectional interests of Keating. In the end I’m more interested in the work that is done than the words that are said. Labor is not conservative (though I suspect it will be more economically conservative than Howard) and Australia doen’t need it to be. Like Hawke in 83 Rudd inherits a deeply divided Australia. The task is to heal the wounds and bring the nation together to progress the future.
correction 53.75 2PP not 52.75 2PP
Actually, Ron, the ALP looks pretty good in Solomon and Robertson, even as the postals progress.
Which gets us pretty close to the 85 I punted on!! (and many others, for that matter)
LTEP
Then prepolls for bennelong have alreadybeen counted
Ron – 78% count is showing 53.24 and dropping: http://vtr.aec.gov.au/
forget earlier figures – swing back to 5.98%
Sat nite Labor 2 PP was 53.41%
now its 53.24%
due to postals expect 53.00% 2PP AFTER remaining 22% uncounted is counted
meaning do not expect to win any of the 7 doubtfuls
Colbran getting 58.54% of postals in Herbert.
ALP still ahead in Dickson (Qld) by around 450 votes
Off topic question: how do Australians living overseas vote in HoR? What electorate etc?
Dutton behind by 238 votes he’s closing the gap….
And then when do these numbers come in?
Was Howard a racist? A look at his record makes it hard to claim otherwise. As Keating said in the Herald this week, and Phillip Adams reiterated in today’s Australian, nothing will protect Howard from claims of racism. It is what he always was – an old white supremacist – and he deserves to carry that tag as the defining characteristic of his repugnant legacy.
Did anyone mention that the Qld Libs have a leadership spill?
They can hold their meeting in a Tarago!!
Its not a spill, its a drip.
Cut the rush! Found my own answer about where but anyone on when and whether overseas voters are significant?
“Persons with no fixed address must enrol in the Division in which they were last entitled to enrolment. If they have not previously been entitled to enrolment they can enrol for the division in which their next of kin is enrolled, or, if there is no next of kin, the division in which they were born. Electors not born in Australia can enrol in the division with which they have the closest connection.”
205 Darn -
thanks for that info. One thing that concerned me on polling day was a couple of people from interstate who came to vote were told they couldnot do so at the booth they were at. Their choices were 3 others, all at least 35 mins to an hour’s drive away. One guy showed up at about 5:45 so he wouldn’t have made it even if he had wanted to.
(they all wanted to vote Green too -bugger).
So, will they be fined for not voting, even though they had attempted to?
Obviously they couldn’t be crossed off the roll, so what happens???
Neilbris @242
Whether John Howard is a racist is something that each of us can decide.
However, I certainly don’t listen the chardonnay socialist type like Adams.
I definitely don’t listen to a former Prime Minister who gave our party the 2nd largest electoral defeat since 1949 (after Whitlam) and hasn’t realised that he lost the election and needs to move on.
I will take my lead from the consensus, rebuilding style of Mr Rudd and Mr Hawke.
Yeah for Macca’s guy!
Will he be offering discount “meals” to his parliamentary colleagues who come up and visit?
If you fail to vote, basically you complete a stat dec and maybe supply documentary evidence if relevant. Essentially the AEC will let it pass.
I expect if you fail to respond or give a smart-arse answer – then you cop a fine.
Pancho an overseas voter’s electorate is the one they were enrolled in when living in Australia.
But if you can register an interstate vote at some booths why not all larger ones, or is it too impractical?
Hahahahaha…….this should really scare the bejesus out of the ALP………… South Australian Liberal MP Christopher Pyne has announced he will stand for the party’s deputy leadership.
It will be interesting for the “Macca’s Guy”, George Colbran and his position on industrial relations.
I didn’t see him championing workers rights as a franchisee when I was under the Golden Arches. I wonder if he has allowed access for union representation at his stores yet and what his poistion now is on minimum wage?
It has been a while since I worked there so, maybe he has been on his own “road to Damascus” since then.
Was it just the vodka, or did anyone else glimpse the message: KALGOORLIE -SURPRISE WIN TO ALP flash up on the ABC’s results bar at about 7.30 on Saturday night?
Maybe DLP Macca’s Guy will be some kind of deputy IR minister to Oskar Mk2?
OK it was just the vodka then.
The QLD Liberals Leadership battle should be a cracker. The winner has to just get 5 votes (inlcuding their own).
Tim Nicholls is my local member. He won a blue ribbon seat by 500 votes against a former scandal ridden minister. In the ALP, we are hoping he wins the leadership. The more he is seen, the more disliked he will be.
Not as funny as the Democrats leadership battle
ALP now 2 votes behind in Swan.
Jen, 246. They would not be fined, as they have an excuse for not voting (being interstate on polling day). They should have pre-polled. It’s another quirk of the federal system.
No – I saw that ALP WIN KALGOORLIE things too. It was real. A little premature, but they put it up. ABout 8:15 or 8:30 Sydney time I believe.
254 Ozymandias – no I saw it too re Kalgoorlie and I didn’t have any vodka at all – I was saving up for the champagne and mandarin juice later in the evening
The following are the ONLY 7 doubtful seats
On Sat nite , labor looked like winning most…best maybe 3
Labor in front:
Herbert 560
Dickson 234
Labor now behind
swan 2 ….Labor lost 0.08% since Sat
Bowman 27 … Labor lost 0.08% since Sat
Macarthur 317
Latrobe 433 ….Labor lost 0.19% since Sat
McEwan 506
others no change
% may look small but labor lead in Bowman by 402 votes Sat nite..now -27
Caroline Overton ‘oz’ today claims “scoop”
surprise ALP win in Kalgoolie
Fantastic Result!!!!!
Does anybody know how the Sturt count is going?
I thought we were going to hear from Condoleezza’s golf partner today. Whatever happened to that, or did I miss it?
RB,
Its still a very solid win for Labor, it doesnt qualify as a landslide only because Labor was coming off a low base last time. To me a landslide requires a figure less than 40% of the seats in outcome, ie less than 60 and probably closer to 50.
Assuming Labor governs from the centre I imagine they will try very hard to consolidate in QLD and look to extend their gains to some of the marginals they just missed out on this time, eg Macarthur, Hughes in which member retirements are highly likely AND invest in WA big time to pick up from a low base. Of course if the Liberals blow up this would be a good prospect.
For the Liberals ditch WorkChoices, bring in new blood, stay united and wait seems like the best strategy. There will be a real honeymoon for 18-24 months so not much point doing anything radical and hoping for Labor to blow it or for the economy to blow up is probably the best bet. Its also the best time for the internal abbatoir work – moving on some of the logs particularly in NSW could be a productive use of time and working behind the scenes on good candidate selection seems the best bet.
Of course it was ESJ. Just suck it up.
Will you settle for a serious a*se kicking?
If Labor ends up with 83 seats, it isn’t going to be a landslide. I think a party needs to get 90 seats to seriously claim that it is a landslide…
Pancho,
Have not heard anything. My guess is there will be a bye election in Mayo next year.
I second what DLP was saying about Phillip Adams. His usefulness is in his ability to get really interesting guests on his show. That’s about it though.
The Cate Blanchett brigade is no help, really. They’re just different stripe to the David Flints and Pru Gowards of this world.
Try working for a tough post-working class suburb like Lockridge, in Perth, for a member of parliament. That’s what being in the ALP is all about. Or should be.
Turnbull’s SCARY history
1/ he is presently one of many DEFENDANTS in the H.I.H case before the NSW
Supreme Court
2/ read Turnbull’s business career with Kerry Packer’s deals and discussions on ‘bottom of the harbour’
read Paul Barry’s biography uncut 2007 : ‘the rise & rise of Kerry packer’
bet the Liberal MP’s have not read it
273
Yes, but he was Peter Wright’s lawyer in the Spycatcher case, which is kind of cool.
ESJ says
IMHO, it may be more appropriate to send the old cows to the abattoirs and the logs to a sawmill.
RB @ 273
Thanks for reminding me.
I hear on the grapevine that Malcolm maybe in for some mud sticking to him in the HIH trial.
It could cost him his political aspirations.
Pity, he is the only one of that lot that I find interesting enough to not push the mute button.
Behind by 2 in Swan. I also saw Kalgoolie go with a huge swing and also sturt with 12%. it was just a flash in the pan
Wasn’t dear Mal working for Goldman Sachs and advising on the sale of FAI to HIH……could it have been “pass the parcel”?
LOL Barry, wasnt quite mixed metaphors but point taken.
Looks like the Liberals will pick up most of the undecideds.
Is there an incumbency factor with undecideds?
There’s an inucmbancy factor with Postals – which amounts to the same thing.
AEC website (as at 4.10 pm) shows:
1. Libs have hit the front in Swan (albeit by 2 votes) and Bowman; and
2. McEwen no longer considered “doubtful” (ie Liberal 2PP now greater than 50.5)
Herbert looks the only winner out of the undecideds. 84 seats was what William tipped, wasn’t it?
“84 seats was what William tipped, wasn’t it?”
Dunno but it’s what I tipped
Interesting pseph points:
1. The interest rate/vote link is bunk
2. The Liberal leafy suburb safe seats stayed safe.
3. Swing marginals stay swinging marginals regardless of pork, eg Eden Monaro, Macarthur
4. A narrowing did happen from 55/56 to 53, would have been interesting if the Libs got to 48
5. KR broke a number of records/ myths with this win. The experience thing and the boom economic times thing
6. When people make up their mind you are stuffed and not much will change it, people made up their mind after about a year concerning JWH and nothing he did changed it.
Jen (246)
It’s always up to the Divisional Returning Officer concerned to make the decision in these cases. But there is a category of “attempted” when deciding if non voters should be excused and if it was me, based on the info you have given, I would not fine them.
A lot of people don’t know that you can’t go to a normal polling place to vote when you are interstate, so there is a fair amount of tolerance on that score.
The ones most likely to end up with a fine are those who didn’t bother to try.
Is solomon still in doubt?
Ozymandias at 254: We saw that and got more than a little excited at the time.
I didn’t really imagine that the ALP could have won Kalgoorlie though, and it seems I was right. It was a very cruel thing to do to us.
ESJ @ 285
JWH broke a myth at the 2004 election. The government that introduces a broad based consumption tax loses the next election. He just deflected that myth on to the Democrats and they eventually upheld it.
I predicted 83 or 84 seats until that Lindsay thing.
Then I got cocky and went for 86.
For someone that never followed the elections in the past…not a bad call.
If it wasn’t for PB or possum I would not have learnt much at all. Thanks guys.
Dario@258
”
“[The QLD Liberals Leadership battle should be a cracker. The winner has to just get 5 votes (inlcuding their own).]
Not as funny as the Democrats leadership battle
More people voted in a Democrat leader ballot than in a Labor, Lib or Nationals leadership ballot, by an order of several magnitudes (even at the end).
Libs now 63 votes ahead in Swan.
Re Phillip Adams:
My unpublished Sunday letter to The Australian:
‘Thank you, Australia. You have saved us all from another three years of Phillip Adams banging on about John Howard.’
‘Yours sincerely,
Chris Curtis
‘e-mailed to: letters@theaustralian.com.au
as Phillip and John, it’s over’
But I spoke too soon, so I had to send another today:
‘I had hoped that the election result would mean the end of Phillip Adams banging on about John Howard. Apparently not (“Ten reasons why it’s great to see him go”, 27/11).
‘Yours sincerely,
Chris Curtis
‘e-mailed to: letters@theaustralian.com.au
as Too much to hope for’
And I bet the WA Lib rabble are not far off something similar….
In fact I’ll include the Greens in that list of undemocratic parties because as far as I can tell the leader is chosen by a small number of delegates.
EsJ is right… it was an ass-whoopin, but wasn’t really a landslide.
That’s what’s going to happen in about six months with the double-dissolution.
I agree with comment over the long running Gerard Henderson Presents stage play, Two of the Monkeys, in which he played both starring roles.
(Run ended on 24/11/07, after 11 years, to rapturous applause, due to the retirement of the management).
It was indeed a fine piece of theatre, which satisfied his audience’s need for suspension of belief, as all good theatre should. The play also afforded many other fine actors a chance to showcase and hone their talents.
But that is the art of theatre. Illusion. To which even the actors may succumb, recovering only upon their return to the world of reality.
Gerard’s article is actually a print of his address to the crowd at the final cast party.
I read it as a rather interesting public exercise in humble pie consumption, plenty of which was available at the party.
For a person whose career could endow one with a certain sense of hubris, I thought Gerard’s address quite gracious and endowed with a sense of humility.
There certainly has been one myth busted – “16 seats is a lot of seats to fall ergo the government can hang on.”
Flegg tried to bring the spill on at 5:00PM today, 4 members could not make it in time.
Looks like its still 4-4
Poll prediction
I think Bluebottle took this over but just in case; according to my records the people that picked 86 on the 26/10/2007 where:
Burgey:
Sinowestie:
sondeo:
Bluebottle:
Burgey:
Fagin:
And 86 was the Pollbludger average (the wisdom of crowds).
I believe the Libs will avoid a DD. Just listening to some of them the last few days, they really aren’t rusted on to Workchoices now. Fancy having to try and fight for the retention of that bucket of crap again.
dembo, as I understand it, the Greens only officially made Brown leader during the last term (feel free to correct me Greens folks), and he is largely a ceremonial leader. I don’t think your local groups are bound by Bob’s decisions, for better or worse.
Does anyone know how the libs elect the leader. Is it just one ballot and the person with the most votes wins? (Maybe a minority of votes) or does the guy who gets least votes drop out – then it is between the last two standing?
Paul B said that Julie Bishop was running for Deputy.
It’s a three way bet.
Mr Turnbull.
Mr Nelson.
Mr Abbott.
and for deputy
Ms Bishop
Mr Robb
Mr Pyne
#300
I picked 86 too
303 ruawake – I reckon they’ve forgotten how it’s done. It has been so long.
Swan – has Irons ahead of Wilkie by 63 votes, almost one to chalk up on the board for the Tories with 81.5% counted and postals in favour of Irons…sweet!
Sorry for what is probably a stupid question – but the ABC website lists total ALP seats as 81. There are 8 Lib seats in doubt and 1 ALP.
Of the 81 – Bennelong is listed as an ALP gain – but postals have not been counted yet.
I know Max looks like she has enough of a swing to win it – but how many others in that 81 are still to be decided??
Personally Glen I’d love to see Abbott and Pyne. However I think that combination has got Buckley’s of getting up.
Do postals tend to favour the sitting member?
tess wall in the fight for the libs leader
I know you would, but wouldn’t abbott and robb be better in your humble opinion.
My prediction of a Nelson/Bishop or Turnbull/Bishop is looking swell atm.
Given there is less than 20% of the vote to go and the tories being so close, we could pick up the rest of those ‘close’ seats…
Nelson and Robb in my opinion.
Lets keep the removal of unfair dismissal laws.
JOHN HOWARD 4 KEVIN RUDD
Glen do you think the Nationals and Liberals will merge?
I think the Liberals should block Labors IR policy unless it keeps out unfair dismissals if they try and bring it back, block it.
Rudd doesn’t have the gonads for a DD election and he risks a swing against him…
I was listening to Branaby on the radio if they do I hope the Libs adopt the Nationals policy making ways, ie from the grass roots.
They should but they wont John, its a joke we have two tory parties but we’ve just got to work with them and concentrate on winning back our seats for 2010.
Kevin would love a DD. Clean up the rest.
Are postal votes becoming the third force in Australian politics?
What if Turnbull, Nelson and Abbott all have about 17 votes in the party room?
Imagine the chaos.
If it’s a DD becuse the Senate won’t repeal WC then I think PM Rudd would be more than happy to take his electoral chances
I think the reason Julie Bishop has yet to nominate is she thinks she might have support to be the Leader not just deputy, especially considering 30% of the Libs parliamentary party is from WA but she’d have nominated already if she wanted deputy she might want the whole deal…
And 84 seats is what I tipped. Do I get a prize?
I think we should all acknowledge that Glen said ages ago that the ALP would lose Swan and Cowan, and that seems to be the case. And he hasn’t said ‘told you so’ once yet, I don’t think!
2010 starts now.
Policy 1: Hopsitals to be owned and funded excuslively by the federal government but run by boards.
Policy 2: Education to be funded exclusively by the Commonwealth.
I hope the ALP keeps the building site watch dog, didn’t productivity improve after its introduction?
How do they decide who gets to vote? Isn’t it supposed to be member sof the parliamentary party?
Aren’t there as many as 6 votes currently in the “too close to call” column?
That’s about 10% of the votes available in the leadership contest!
You meant 2013.
It could be even worse in 2010, if the experience of one term state Labor governments is any guide.
We’ll see Dangerous there’s still less than 20% to be counted according to the AEC but Steve Irons will probably fly to Canberra id think on Thursday to vote if his numbers hold.
I thought we’d hold Stirling but i wasn’t confident about Hasluck so my prediction about WA was close to it.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/27/2102887.htm?section=justin
Bishop urged to contest liberal leadership
“The Federal Member for Kalgoorlie, Barry Haase, has urged former Education Minister Julie Bishop to run for the position of leader of the Liberal Party.”
Mr Haase says Ms Bishop would make an ideal party leader.
“She deserves to have a crack at leadership, and I would urge her to do so,” he said.
“Julie you would be immensely capable of assisting in the solution to some of those problems by the development of good policy.”
I think Turnball/Bishop is most likely.
Given that, what do people think will be the first socially progressive wedge the ALP apply. The republic is an obvious one – but I reckon they will save that one for the next election.
QANTAS signs an enterprise agreement with staff – expects to employ an extra 2,000 workers as a result.
AWAs in the garbage bin.
Given Wentworth Gay Rights would be interesting. Though Kev seems a little conservative on that front.
Maybe Malcolm could wedge KR on gay rights lol ohhh the irony…
I can’t see Turnbull as leader of the liberal party as too many right wingers hate his guts.
Glen @ 333. That would be priceless! First, the aboriginals, next the gays.
Julie Bishop could be a Federal equivalent of Kerry Chikarovski.
I can see it now.
Leader Of the Opposition Turnbull introduces a Private Members Bill allowing Gay Marriages and then lets the Coalition vote on conscience….
MS how many right wing Liberals copped it in the 2007 election??
If it’s a few then Malcolm has a good chance…as does Julie Bishop a four way contest would be interesting.
They will put Mal in and then “burn” him
They will leak stories that his budgie is gay and his dog a crack user.
337 = Do you think a bill allowing gay marriages would pass the HoR under a conscience vote?
Anyone know how Rudd voted on the NT euthanasia bill?
Surely when we all vote at the next election there will be a referendum that simply states “Should Australia become a Republic? YES or NO” Once that passes by 55 – 60% the parliament can debate a series of models that voters will get to choose from at the 2013 election.
I always felt Howard would be the last monarchist political leader in Australia.
The biggest policy debate will come when the carbon tax is introduced and every bodies bills become dearer. Rates analyst how much pressure wll this put onto rates?
John of Melbourne – it depends on how much new industry and economy a carbon tax generates. Could well be an economic positive.
A DD needs the bill to be rejected once by the Senate and then again 6 months later, given Labor has said it wont have parliament sit until the new year (and the complexity of new legislation being drafted) the second rejection wont happen until after control of the senate changes hands.
“Maybe Malcolm could wedge KR on gay rights lol ohhh the irony…”
The door stop interviews with Heffernan would be a hoot as well.
I believe it passed a bill in 1997, before Rudd entered parliament.
342= Rudd wasn’t in Parliament when the bill was passed
I agree Albert F maybe he’ll defect to the Nations like Julian McGauran who defected to us lol!
It’s 3 months. Section 57 says:
“If the House of Representatives passes any proposed law, and the Senate rejects or fails to pass it, or passes it with amendments to which the House of Representatives will not agree, and if after an interval of three months the House of Representatives…”
Is there any site that is going to maintain a daily diary of the Rudd govt’s term?
They should just merge. How about “The National Agrarian Socialist and Liberal Alliance Party of Australia”?
Costello the $10m man
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22828684-952,00.html
You’d probably know more about the right wing composition of the liberal party than I would Glen, but I would have thought that people like Alex Hawke would move heaven and earth to make sure Malcolm didn’t become leader ? Especially if he is as influential as the media portray.
I am not sure why the Nats and the Libs merging would be a good outcome for the conservatives. Keeping them separate enables a bit of brand separation. Keeping them separate is still probably the best way of harnessing a dwindling demographic. Imagine the broad church trying to keep both the urban and the rural uglies under the one steeple? There would be constant breakouts.
Alex Hawke would obviously be voting for Abbott. Abott is the messiah of the Taliban-Right of the Young Liberals.
Yes indeed ShowsOn. I guess my question is more to how much influence the likes of Hawke actually have … is he a true king of the dark arts of political deal-making ?
Alex Hawke and Heff are about the only people who’d vote for Abbott.
What about Sophie ?
You just don’t get it John, the carbon economy is not going to go on forever, a county has two choices , make money out of the change of try and fight it.
To put it into a historic context, we can stick with the horses or buy tractors. The people that brought tractors when everyone else tried to stick with horses made a lot of money, the tractor buyers sold the hay.
In three years time the change will be in full swing, to get a feel for what it looks like get of your backside and visit Europe, things are well under way there.
If the Liberal party wants to get back into power it has to move to the center and stop looking in the rear view mirror.
Maybe sophie too but that’s it, so we can chalk up 3 votes for Tony abbott.
I think the increase in the cost of electricity would most likely put downwards pressure on rates….
It does increase CPI, true, but it will be like the GST which increased CPI massively for a few months. The RBA will ignore a one-off increase in CPI if there is no reason for it to continue.
Essentially an accross the board increase in electricity costs is like the opposite of a tax cut. It draws extra money OUT of the economy. And since the money is used producing electricity in a more expensive manner it’s not a transfer. It
The only reason it might put upwards pressure in interest rates is if the CPI effect is ongoing as more business pass on the higher costs of electricity slowly. But I think the main effect would be to reduce the productive capacity of the econonmy. So rates go lower.
Complicated question though.
Charles I was at the World Cup last year
Isn’t a large amount of Europe beholden to Russian oil for its energy?
I hope Nelson wins, if only for the fact he will be the first leader of the liberal party from the Flinders University Medical School, my current employer.
Doesn’t it strike you odd why they’d bother to have 3-way races? Why not just sort it out behind closed doors privately and elect someone unopposed.
At least that’d give the public the impression of a unified team. I can understand 2 way races by 3 ways? What are they thinking?
Obviously they didn’t have much of a plan for going into Opposition.
Does Abbot get to vote for himself or not? He might get 4 votes?
How about Heffernan? Bernardi? Lightfoot?
My other reason for thinking Nelson will win is that he might be the “compromise” candidate.
Wouldn’t three options be preffered to two as this will not split the parliamentary down the middle.
LTEP
It is odd, if one of them does not pull out of the contest it means the Libs are very divided.
Usually in 3-cornered leadership contests, the one with the lowest vote is knocked out first. Presumably that would be Abbott, and all of his votes would then surely transfer directly to Brendan Nelson. I’m assuming that Nelson would be less hated by the right than Turnbull.
No, it is Dave Clarke, the guy who controls Alex Hawke that you have to worry about.
Clarke is probably rounding up votes for Abbott as we speak.
Abbott is the “Howard was right, voters are wrong” candidate
Turnbull is the “Howard was wrong, I was right” candidate
Nelson is the “Everyone except for Turnbull is right” candidate.
JOM
There has already been economic modelling of carbon taxes. Even if they put the supply cost up by 30% to 50%, that only puts up the retail cost to households by half that. The real impact is in places like the Latrobe valley and Central Qld where the at risk jobs are.
There is a real issue here in the long term. As the world demand for coal starts to level out or even drop, it will affect both the demand and wholesale price for coal. This might takea few years but it must harm the Qld and NSW economy. I am a sceptic on clean coal; even if it works the cost is so high that coal usage will stil take a major hit.
JOM 364
Its not the oil so much – a big chunk of Europe is beholden to Russian gas for winter heating especially. They turned the supply off at a critical time last winter for political and economic reasons. This is why Finladn is building a new nuclear reactor adn germany, despite claims to the contrary, has put on hold plans to close its own nuclear reactors.
Nelson has been assiduous in chalking up favours behind the scenes for some time. He will rate second of three in round one. Abbott will be third in round one. The Abbott votes will then go to Nelson in round two because they definitely will not go to Turnbull. This should be enough. Bishop will go deputy because they will want to hold onto the WA gains in the next election and there is plenty of money over there for the party. That pairing will do what is needed: don’t get noticed, bore the socks of everybody, and get to work fixing the organisational wing for a couple of years of honeymoon for Rudd.
Hubris got Howard in the end. Bit sad as he really had so little to be boastful of.
Public never liked Howard. As Paul Keating once mentioned he was struck in the arse by a rainbow at birth. He won elections through a combination of pure luck and rodent bastardry.
1996 – Costello’s stage fright cost him the election. Howard’s battlers or Pauline’s white trash deserted ‘Placido’ in droves. They didn’t want or understand recocilliation or an engagement with Asia. Abos and asians were for laughing at and abusing. Wogs were only a little less problematic. With baseball bats at the ready they were ready to gove PJK a belt.
1998 – The never ever GST election and with Joe Cocker and a few spare million of taxpayers money, Honest John convinced enough ‘battlers that the tax system was broken and scraped back in – However his low standing amongst voters was shown by him losing the popular vote despite being only two years into his term. Again breaking non core promises didn’t phase the battlers as the dog whistles and the new political correctness was still resonating and Pauline really did look so lovely in those New Idea pics. Always amazed that not enough punters understtod that a ‘broken” tax system meant that the government wasn’t collecting as much tax as it wanted.
2001 – Howard mean and tricky and on the nose and headed for oblivion. Howard reneges on his deal with Tip and starts kicking his legs and flailing mud and excrement at all comers in a desperate bid to be re -elected. Takes advice from the republican dirt unit on how to redefine his opponent. Howard outgunned by the beazer in the substance and credibility stakes so starts a campaign based in dishonesty based on a story big Kim tells caucus about his daughter and the failing hospital system. Assisted by the MSM this and other ridculous smears are played into ‘credibility’ and ‘ticker’ issues, ironically by the spine and truth challenged libs. Big naive prolix Kim trys to reason this out rather than laughing these attacks off. Still would have won bar 9/11 (Howard on the spot in USA – a signal from tory gods that he was the chosen one) and Tampa. The white trash cant resist a good anti muslim line and really who would want the type of people that throw their kids in the water. We prefer a government who takes pictures of another event on another day – cuts off the captions and presents it to the world at large as evidence of those type of people.
2004 – Our glorious leader’s war on terror by ignoring al quaeda and securing USA security and economic interest in Iraq is starting to fade like a queenslander’s curtains by 2004 but useful enough to see out Crean with help from a jittery alp back bench. While Simon does not capture the public’s imagination, polls show ALP regularly in front on TPP. Indeed I would hazard a gues that over 11 and a half years ALP would have been preferred in TPP polls in over half that time. A pretty good clue to how ‘not loved’ Honest Johny was. Latham comes onto the scene and again Howard flounders like a fish out of water. Scary to think how many times Latham bested him and boxed him in the year leading up to the election. Another scare campaign with the tampa full of hostaged interest rates rather than terrified and dehydrating refugees – poorly manged campaign by the ALP team and an imploding Latham (health and decision making wise) sees Howard in again – despite an obvious disike for him by the punters. Again the irony of utilising interest rates by a prime minister who through the first home grant and capital tax changes and a banking industry that would lend money to pirates, vagabonds, scallywags gamblers and drunken sailors (hello to the Liberal NSW branch) drove house prices up and average mortgages into the stratosphere (lucky they weren’t ozone depleting) and by a person who has treasurer gave us 22% interest rates, high inflation, high unemployment, a wages expolision and a recession almost destroying the australian economy single handed (they shouldn’t really give a person who failed general maths at HSC a job dealing with numbers) was gob smakingly surreal. So the battlers looked to the important issues – their house prices and repayments. They hated the little bastard but they trusted him. They were confused that they got 8 dolar tax cuts while the top brakets got hundreds, accepted that more money should go to private schools and health should become more expensive through a tranfer to the private sector. Also rich kids should enter unis on the back of daddy’s largess and not merit. After all rich people are better at handling money you know. It confused them a bit but then you always had those f’en mossies and terrorist out there who Dolly and the undertaker were keeping out. So Latho out and Johny back in.
2007 – Throughout almost all of the term Johny is on the nose. Beazer has him covered but then Ruddy blows him out of the water. Its funny, I think Julius Caesar is attributed to saying that all you have to do to keep the mob happy is give them bread and circuses. For about 8 or 9 years Howard gave the battlers circuses gicvng them the equivalent of roman christian sacrifices in asians, aboriginals, arabs etc. They never even noticed Johny’s hand in their pockets all this time – increase in taxes as a proportion of GDP, finding more money for home loan repayments, childcare costs, retirement home costs (not touched on by anyone to my knowledge) and having to find even more money through the privatisation of health and education – but when they touched their pay and conditions through work choices those slowly moving wheels in the battlers heads finally twigged – it was OK bashing abos, wogs, mossies, leaos, greenies and poofs but now they are bashing me – Bingo!! game over
Didn’t matter if Kevin attended strip bars, ate his ear wax or was so boring you’d put on Kenny Gee CDs for exitement – the tribe had spoken.
They always hated Howard’s guts but weren’t too fussed when he did their dirty work for him. It took them a long time to fugure out that he had little regard for the “mob” (his reference) – when they did he was always a goner.
Howard’s standing in the public was always illusory. Fear played on people’s ignorance and overcame their distates for the little man. When the reality dawned the battlers took pleasure in repudiating this stain on Australia’s soul.
Thanks ShowOn and Socrates.
Herbert is looking more promising for Labor: George Colbran now 560 votes ahead.
Labor still ahead in Dickson by a little more than 200 votes
The Liberals ahead in all other doubtfuls.
So perhaps it’ll be 84 or 85 seats for Rudd?
Will the Lins do polling of Queensland seats that swung heaps to gauge why they turned?
Good; did you fly over Germany and Austria, windfarms everywhere. Sweden, Norway, hydro power fully developed. Development of solar power in full swing. The cars are small with most are running on diesel ( the diesel cycle is much more efficient ).
Did you note that the issue was not only Global warming, but acid rain. It’s over Europe will be moving away from a carbon economy as fast as they can.
The Liberal party has just been creamed. I happen to think they haven’t been creamed enough for party destruction, but if party destruction is to be avoided members have to face up to the future.
Is the Liberal party about being an alternative party for government or about outdated idealogical crap.
I would like 85. It gets me a bottle of bundy.
Glen: my picks for your side would be Turnball and Julie Bishop.
Any reason why Labor is doing better in postal votes for Herbert?
Charles I’ll see your wind mills and raise you a nuclear power plant.
Charles
Last time I was in Holland they were pumping millions of cubic meters of sand onto the dunes to strengthen the coastal defences, raising, strengthening and widening the sea dykes and making arrangements for major rivers to have more controlled flood room. There were wind generators everywhere. They know it is coming. No Dutch Government will survive letting the sea in.
As I said yesterday, if we use the actual figures for Swan from 2004
then Wilkie will catch up about 170 votes when the absentee and
provisional votes get counted later in the week.
See the results at:
http://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/HouseDivisionFirstPrefsByVoteType-12246-247.htm
At the moment he is only 63 votes behind so I would not write him off yet.
And isn’t it interesting; Europe built their plants 30 years ago and are now faced with the problem, “how in the hell do we dismantle these things” and Howard starts banging on about how we need them.
It’s about renewable energy, not about creating another problem for our children.
Thanks for answering, Rates Analyst at 363. Completely right.
And for the record, a carbon tax is very unlikely — they will go the cap and trade route! Of course, economically speaking, they have a very similar effect (exactly the same assuming certainty/full info – which there isn’t).
I reckon Nelson will get it. So I put $20 bucks on @ $4.80. Great value IMO, whereas Turnbull was bad value @ 1.55
Charles 380
You are right about the acid rain. Western countries paid eastern bloc countries millions at the end of the cold war to get them to shut down old coal fired plants in eastern europe. The funny (not) thing is that they were technically comparable to Victoria’s plants.
Despite my comments on Finnish nuclear plants I stilla gree with others that in the short term the best solution for Australia is to greatly increase use of solar and wind power. That will not be the total solution though. I don’t know what teh long term answer is.
AEC is showing Robertson as a “close seat” again. Neal of the ALP ahead by 641 (50.4 2PP), but if the postals split strongly towards the Coalition (like in some of the other tight seats in this election), this could be a tight one.
Howard’s nuclear plants were always intended to be a wedge, as in: Labour can’t be serious about climate change if it opposes nuclear power plants.
He knew there wasn’t a cracker of a chance that they would be built in Australia for price reasons.
He got the reverse wedge: OK. You are serious. In whose backyard?
It was another sign of someone who had lost judgement.
Belinda Neale has already claimed victory. It’d be embarrassing for her if she lost the seat on postals LOL
388 Economan
For power generation I totally agree (cap and trade preferable) however for my field (transport) a carbon tax will be unavoidable, with the tax level based on the cap and trade market price. BTRE has already analysed it and for industries with a large number of small emitters, like transport, the transaction cost of cap and trade is unworkable. The tax revenue will be needed to fund new infrastructure.
I hope Labor gets good advice on this issue – it is not simple (this is not an add – they should talk to people in AGO and BTRE). Their overall policy direction is correct but they could still easily be embarrassed if they get the details wrong.
Does Howard declare defeat or does he say nothing and let Maxine declare victory?
Wilkie catching up again in Swan: only 30 votes behind
as more postal votes are counted.
Absentee and Provisional still to go.
People, people, can we PLEASE stop referring to Turnbull as ‘Malcom’. The correct form of address is ‘Bunger’, as in big red bunger. Tip is dead, Long live Bunger!!.
Socrates, I agree in theory. But I’m not holding my breath for governments introducing “a new tax” any time soon. Broadest coverage of cap and trade might be as good a ’second-best’ as we’re gonna get. And they should auction all permits, no grandfathering or giveaways — but they probably won’t. Again, political realities will probably lead to some compromise on ‘first-best’
They should talk to more than AGO and BTRE. They should also talk to Treasury, Productivity Commission, ABARE (emissions of agriculture etc), and probably many others.
“it is not simple”
Couldn’t agree more!
I like “Petit Mal” i think its better then “bunger”
Dutton now 12 ahead in Dickson
I’ll predict Labor gets to 85: wins Herbert and either Dickson or Swan.
Note to all Tories:
Please oh please block us in the Senate, we can’t wait to wipe the rest of you out, broom cupboard will do you lot then, oh the rapture. BRING IT ON IF YOU HAVE THE BALLS!
Anyone know how the Orangutang vote fared following Howard’s masterful intervention on this front? Got any booth-specific counts from Taronga?
BV: will the 10 year old boy ask PM Rudd to save the monkeys?
384 John of Melbourne That’s exactly why the Liberals will be in opposition for a long time. Keep it up.
I notice Brandis has come out in favour of Turnbull. I suspect this means he’ll hope Turnbull supports Pyne
So how does everyone think i went on Saturday?
HH I think Howard had actually apporved the money before the election – he just waited till during the campaign to announce it (you know becasue it was going to win the eleciton for him)
Grog, I think you are correct – it was announced during the campaign (not that it was a bad policy at all, more that it wasn’t what I would call come-from-behind material…).
Are you disappointed FF beat you Bill? (Mind you they only got a .05% swing…)
Julie Bishop is as dumb as dog sh-t and has the personality of a frying pan.
She’s also one of the most out of touch members of the now deposed H*ward Government.
Nominate her for even more years in the wilderness!
85 may come good…. damn, wish Id put some money on the seat figure! Be getting interesting about now….
Well, there’s certainly going to be some razor thin marginals to pick up next time.
I still reckon ALP looks for Robertson.
Plus the AEC has taken Solomon off the close seats list – they’re giving it to ALP.
AS we speak, officially 82-59-2 with 7 doubtfuls at AEC.
You didn’t mention Kalgoorlie in the context of Western Australia – but what’s happening there is pretty remarkable.
The WA swing was only around the 2% mark, the ALP looks like it could actually come out of this election LESS one seat.. but in Kalgoorlie the swing is 4.7 and has been climbing the entire time. (Margin previously 6.7)
This despite the fact that the incumbent Haase has been around for ages, has a big profile and that the ALP didn’t prioritise the seat.
Makes for pretty interesting viewing this time around and is absolutely going to be one to watch next election..
I just read something at news.com that puzzles me.
Howard might retain his seat????
Get the wooden stakes out if this happens.
So was Leichardt the biggest swing?
Bill
You beat I.N. Formal well done.
BV @ 401.
I heard the Orang-utan vote was what got Hockey over the line in North Sydney. But I don’t think it was because of H*wards Orang-utan intervention though…
I can tell you Howard is currently a country mile behind (2400 votes). If there’s still any alleged ‘doubt’, it cant be much!
Unless news.com.au staffers were stuffing postal votes for Uncle H*ward under instructions from Murdoch. Perhaps they know something we don’t.
she’s alright scaper…
Isn’t it the case he would have to get a significantly higher postal etc vote than last time?
Hi Bill Weller
just checked out Kingston result – 0.2% .
Probably like most Greens I wish we had polled more, although it is great that SA got Sarah in , so well done to all candidates that helped get another senator in.
We (in Vic) are still waitijng to see what happens with Richard DN- could be a long wait!
We did well in Indi – Helen Robinson scored a 1.8 % swing so in 3 elections we’ve gone from about 2.7 to almost 8 , so we are happy with that.
The senate result is around 8% which is pretty good for this elecrorate – and Sophie Mirrabella had about 9% swing against her, so she got a whack, which was great.
Hope you are enjoying the after parties.
Cheers, Jen.
News.com site
“OUTGOING prime minister John Howard’s Sydney-based seat of Bennelong is not among the six being listed as still in doubt as vote counting continues after Saturday’s federal election.
With preferences distributed, former high profile ABC journalist Maxine McKew looks to have stripped Mr Howard of the north-western seat he has held for 33 years.”
Scaper, they are saying it is not in doubt, meaning they assess that it is already won by Max (may her name be praised)
Has anyone been able to put forward a decent theory on why Abbott is nominating?
How many votes?
Heef, Mirrabella, Fierrevantti-Welles??
Are there any other looneys? (yes there are, but THAT looney?)
#
408
Grog Says:
November 27th, 2007 at 6:52 pm
Are you disappointed FF beat you Bill? (Mind you they only got a .05% swing…)
Grog they had a ’star’ candidate and could not pull much ahead of us. We also increased even with the Rudd slide. The ACTU after telling me they would run a split ticket between myself and Rishworth decided to stab me in the back so i am very happy with our vote in Kingston. Brokenshire must be shitty and had a dig at us in the Sunday Mail. We lost the soft Green vote back to the ALP but gained from First time voters and the elderly. That has to worry the major parties
421 Grog
Abbot is nominating because of his personal skills.
jen Says:
November 27th, 2007 at 7:01 pm
Hi Bill Weller
just checked out Kingston result – 0.2%
Thats +0.2% lol
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/27/2102976.htm?section=justin
Bishop to contest Liberal deputy spot
She’s got my vote and so does Turnbull.
Because he can take a knock
Well John Ryan. he is a people person.
I love how on the Today Show this morning when the news item was on the leadsership challenge they showed footage of the three candidates. The bit they showed of Abbott was him saying “That’s B*llsh*t”.
and this from a program on which he is a regular guest!
DUTTON’S AHEAD!! and with less than 16% to go…he’s certainly got a chance to hang in there phew!
Bill I just checked out Jim Rainey on the FF website. “Star candidate” is not the first phrase that comes to mind!
http://www.familyfirst.org.au/ffimages/File/Victoria/Bios/Indi%20Rainey_Jim%20bio.pdf
yep Glen – up by 12 votes. Put down your glasses folks!
Glen,
I’m sure that will mean a lot to them but it’s a pity they don’t even know you exist.
How do you know paul k – Glen may be Peter Dutton in disguise
Well if by chance they stumble onto pollbludger they would but yes they don’t.
Still Paul k who’s your pick for the Labor Ministries???
William’s sober observations above reflect my feelings from polling day. It did not feel like a landslide. I think the best way to think of this win is a superb use of polls, focus groups and a tight small target strategy. In an ideology-devoid world landslides are not driven by collective consciousness but by coincidental intersection of self-interest.
There are economic “storm clouds” emerging and they cannot all be blamed on international conditions. Over-reliance on the commodity economy, housing affordability and an over-geared consumer debt market are all directly related to poor Howard-Costello economic policy. Unfortunately for Rudd, these will probably not start to really bite on the local economy until about the time of the next election.
The job of the Rudd government is to either mitigate the fallout of this economic mismanagement or else find a way to pin this on the previous government (it’s a little too complicated for many Lindsay voters if 4-Corners is anything to go by).
If Rudd fails in doing this and the Opposition can deal with its own internal factionalism, resurrect the myth of Labor as economic mis-managers and run a tight marginal seta campaign in 2010 there is every chance that this government could be a one-termer.
Ther are a lot of ifs here, but I just want to put a wet cloth on the Whitlam Its-Timers posting here.
“Has anyone been able to put forward a decent theory on why Abbott is nominating?”
Well according to the Mad Monk himself he “is an excellent people manager”.
I guess in the same way that Jackie Kelly is a tasteful, witty, insightful satirist.
Gee Tanner is a legend. He’s straight into it, crunching the numbers. Not sure giving the Economic Unrationalists so much free access to the books is all that clever mind you. I wouldn’t.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22827010-5013871,00.html
Glen,
I’d tell you but then you’d just say ” I’m sure that will mean a lot to Rudd but it’s a pity he doesn’t even know you exist. “
Bill, Jim Rainey forgot to mention Jesus in his profile. I guess he’ll be going straight to hell for that one.
Well you know that Rudd is and has always been like an episode of Big Brother, it may be exciting and fresh but when the big night comes, and people actually have a closer look and they look at the detail its just a load of crap. Well the Australian people voted for Rudd and so there’s nothing we can do to change it, only keep Mr Rudd accountable.
Dutton could be shadow Treasurer or finance minister under Malcolm Turnbull should he holds on he’s got a load of talent and he’s a Queenslander.
Bill, will you do it again?
Why are we bothered who that shower picks for chief poohbah, they are an irrelevant rabble, soon to be in the dustbin of history.
Glen – I have to admit “Assistant Treasurer” under Costello meant you got all the dud parts to play.
No doubt everyone has read the bit about Costello by Peter Marten?
If not:
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2007/11/peter-costello-at-close-quarters.html
Grog Says:
November 27th, 2007 at 7:11 pm
Bill I just checked out Jim Rainey on the FF website. “Star candidate” is not the first phrase that comes to mind!
Grog i was referring to Brokenshire in Kingston
paladin – Tanner is an absolute gun. Swan will have to be on his game if he wants to keep the top money job.
Hi there
Just letting you all know that Rudd will be on the 7.30 Report tonight if your interested
If you knew already ignore this post
thanks
Swan won’t last a year as Treasurer, Grog that’s my prediction. Swan is a lightweight has no charisma and is not know for anything during his time in Opposition. Oh and Kevin Rudd hates him because he backed Uncle Buck (Kim).
#
440
paladin Says:
November 27th, 2007 at 7:18 pm
Bill, will you do it again?
After the response i received at polling booth where people i did not know came up and shook my hand i would consider it. There is a mood here for a big vote in both the State and Fed election. We have increased our membership by 40% and there is still more joining everyday
Glen
It does not matter who the opposition shadows are, they will be irrelevant until the next election – same with the deputy leader. They will have to hope and beg to get media coverage as all oppositions do.
The Libs think the media are interested in their internal leadership? It will be forgotten by monday.
Irrelevance is a hard master – especially when you stare 2.5 years of it in the face.
Rudd on 7.30 report.
Terrible howler by Richard Herr from Pol Sci at Tas Uni over the weekend and again on radio on Monday, claiming that Andrew Wilkie has some sort of chance (however remote) in the Tassie Senate because below-the-lines have not been counted yet and more Greens vote below the line.
He doesn’t realise the BTLs are counted on the night – just not sorted. I rang the AEC up at a previous election to make absolutely sure because people were spouting the same sort of nonsense last time.
If anything having more of your party’s votes BTL is a disadvantage.
There’s been a lot of (well deserved) derision and flak for Ferguson for refusing to concede Bass even though he is >1000 behind. There should be more for Bob Brown for refusing to concede that Wilkie can’t win in the Senate – Wilkie is only out of it by about 16,000 after all!
Re-reading my post @ 434 (aside from spelling errors), I want to clarify what I mean about “ideology-devoid”. It sounds like that I don’t understand that Adam Smith’s “invisible hand” is not an expression of ideology. I do. But given about three decades of economic policy being driven by this ideology, the result is that the Australian society is now conforming to this idea (rather than the economic motivation being a priori). Curse these short posts. I hope I am not being too deep.
“The United Union for Folding Chairs”
Hey. That’s my Union he’s making fun of.
paul k @ 452 – you think that is funny – my old union was the Australian Theatrical Amusement Employees Association. Seriously. Try saying ATAEA after three beers!
El nino @ 451 You’d think with all the advances in technology since Wealth Of Nations someone would have found the “invisible hand” by now?
Bill, please tell me you were joking when you said this “That has to worry the major parties”
yep, I’m sure their terrified of a .2 lol…srry .02 swing to you
lmfao, srry but thats too funny. Considering what a total wasteland Kingston is thats just classic.
Christ you could open up the back of your panel van on any corner in Happy Valley, hand out 10 free cans of “ole crow” , 5 packs of “Winnies” and 2 sticks and get a better result then that !
Mark @ 454 its not the ‘invisible hand’, its the ‘invisible goose’ that I am worried about. I’m sure that’s coming.
Belinda Neale slipping – there is justice in this vale of tears Howard Hater.
If preferences run the same way they did in ‘04 Maxine should win by about 300 votes, worked out by applying the .33% swing evidenced in the pre-poll votes.
To retain the seat Mr Howard will need to do better than his ‘04 proportions.
Here is a take from Andrew Landeryou on the Julestar.
http://www.apachost.com/downloads/GAMEONJulieBishopPutsHerHandUpForDeputy_1050D/juliebishop.jpg
455 misanthrope – sorry but in Kingston it would be a 5 packs of “Escort”
misanthrope Says:
November 27th, 2007 at 7:45 pm
Bill, please tell me you were joking when you said this “That has to worry the major parties”
yep, I’m sure their terrified of a .2 lol…srry .02 swing to you
lmfao, srry but thats too funny. Considering what a total wasteland Kingston is thats just classic.
Christ you could open up the back of your panel van on any corner in Happy Valley, hand out 10 free cans of “ole crow” , 5 packs of “Winnies” and 2 sticks and get a better result then that !
Watch and learn my dear friend
I admire the idealism of the Greens.
misanthrope,
That’s not very fair. After all if the Greens just keep on increasing their vote in Kingston by .02% every election then Bill is bound to win the seat sometime before his 500th birthday.
Bill,
I had the same experience throughout the camapaign -people were really interested in wanting to better understand what our policies are, and lots of non-Greens were very supportive of us as a party, and of Bob as a decent politiian in amongst such glaring cynical power grabbing as we have lived with for the past 11 years.
To all you sceptics: check out the results in Melbourne.
For Glen and others who like to think the election was just a bad dream, the AEC still gives you hope:
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseSeatsWhichChangedHands-13745-NAT.htm
Well I just watched Rudd on the 7.30 Report. It’s a really odd feeling seeing this guy and realising he’s the Prime Minister. And while all governments go to pot after a few years, I have to say I’m impressed with his start.
Sure, he spruiked the jargon. He’s a technocrat – he believes in performance indicators and strategy review and all that stuff.
But when Kerry asked him about his order to MPs to each visit two schools in their electorate in the next week, he actually explained his reasons well, and then he said his next task was to send each of his MPs to a homeless shelter! He said it was disgraceful that in a country like ours there were so many homeless people being turned away from a bed.
Well stuff me. You would never have heard that from John Howard (or even Peter Costello, though you would have heard it from his brother). Rudd may be centrist, he may be a supposed fiscal conservative, but at least he’s showing signs of giving a shit about those who need a shit given about.
The other thing I liked about Rudd was that he didn’t promise too much. He didn’t claim there’d be a computer for every student straight away, or that every school would get a technical wing. He said he’d set targets and publicly report on press in meeting the targets. That’s just sensible, sober government.
There is no doubt that Australia is going to change,slowly but surely. It happens with every change of government, and there’ll be a limit to the “mee-tooism” (which, I must say, is a great addition to our political vocab…though it has been used before in the US).
jen
33,127 is the only relevant figure in Melbourne.
Mark @ 454 -
Someone did.
http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9149142
ruawake
The homeless stuff impressed me too. There’s a heart inside the technocrat.
I was there in 89 when Goss got elected – we didnt see much of this (and thats despite homeless shelters being much more a state issue).
I reckon he might surprise a few people, the Ruddster.
Antonio @ 466 -
The whole laptops in schools thing is a huge ask. I’ve been working with educators over the last 18 months, helping them to wrap their minds around the network revolution. It’s a hard slog, not least because there’s so much that educators have to consider that throwing them a curve ball like the Web (which is brand-new, in educational terms) will upset the curricula a lot.
I reckon this is actually Rudd’s Trojan Horse in the education revolution. Get the laptops into the schools and you inevitably revolutionize the entire educational infrastructure: teaching, curriculum, administration – the whole ball of wax.
There’s a huge danger of a rebellion in the front-line troops – the teachers. So it is best done slowly, over years. But it is best done.
466 Antonio – when I heard him mention homeless shelters I near fell off my chair. I was expecting hospital emergency rooms or child care centres… but the homeless?? Wow!
This guy is good.
But I wouldn’t want to be the first Minister to stuff up.
Going back a little: Since when did anyone refer to an election as a “landslide” on the basis of the swing? By Dario’s logic, we should refer to the “Whitlam landslide of 1969″.
Having fully computerised schools will greatly aid the delivery of national curricula – the trojan horse is an astute analogy Marko
ruawke-
cute.
give us some credit – we have outpolled the libs.
Mind you I willl admit that at the moment my cocker spaniel would outpoll the libs (no disrespect to Adam Bandt).
Lefty E -
Yes, and no. The laptops are useful for a lot more than just the delivery of curricula. But, most significantly, they represent a seismic change in the role of educator. It’s a transition from the role of teacher as instructor to the role of teacher as guide/mentor to the much larger world of information that’s available outside the classroom walls. How can we teach kids to surf through the B.S. to arrive at some real understanding? That’s something they’re not getting at all, from anywhere. And it’s something that these kids badly need.
Will – in terms of modern campaigns, I am also cautioning against “landslide” being defined by number of seats won.
So let me get this straight: “16 = mount everest” but “25 doesn’t = landslide?”
re the term Landslide -
how about Massacre/ blood bath/ annhialation/ really F*cking Fantastic result then.
Lefty E – me @ 435
Comfortable win?
Marko,
Kevin Rudd hasn’t said, as far as I know, that there will be laptops, but computers. Schools have had computers for years. Teachers use them. Reports asre done on them. Timetables are done by them. Box and whisper graphs are produced by them. Students use them. Lessons are presented on them. Students download assignments and research via the internet. Work comes in over the net. Kids make Power Pointless Presentations – just like boring PD presenters. Having a lot more of them won’t be revoutionary. What’s to rebel against?
Well, yes MArko – and it all depend on the pedagogy in the end. Puters are just tools and delivery formats. The hard yards are all in the content.
Marko good point, just hope the laptops mean the Year 12’s don’t learn about politics on pollbludger – wouldn’t want their productivity to decrease as much as ours did over the past 6 weeks.
Marko@471
Yes, you are spot on. My partner is a music teacher, who is extremely computer-literate and is into music technology and digital recording. But she says many of the other teachers know buggerall about computers, far less than the kids. They don’t use them in the classroom, unlike people (like her) who’ve also worked in the administrative or business worlds, who’ve learnt about computers.
She also raised an interesting issue – every school will need better security, because kids will STEAL the computers!
But all the high-end private schools demands that kids have their own laptops. (A women I work with gets email messages from her daughter at Wesley College in Melbourne remarking about how boring her current class it, and how the teacher thinks she’s doing classwork!) But computers is state schools are essential in restoring equity. And Rudd is also providing assistance for kids to get computers at home.
I can’t believe that the Coalition has been so off the ball on this stuff. I can only explain it by thinking that people like Howard and Vaile are in the wrong generation, and just don’t get it. So much has changed in 11 years, and they’ve been cocooned by staff who do all their admin for them.
The Libs were found so badly wanting when Labor came up with stuff like the Kevin07 site and Rudd’s Facebook page. Yet they had all the resources and advice of government to help them.
Marko,
I think we are starting to turn aganst the 1970s view of the teacher as ‘guide/mentor’ and going back to the teacher as ‘teacher’ in the light of the 500,000 studies that Dr Ken Rowe of ACER says prove students learn better when they are actually taught.
Not the ideal response (or at least not the one I wanted to hear) from Rudd on the AWB question from Kerry (which I was so glad to have heard asked), but very impressive otherwise and promising (even at such an early stage – technically he is’nt PM yet).
Hopefully the advice that Rudd will get will result in positive action. We shall see.
Is it true that the time limit on laying charges is due soon ? If charges are not laid against anybody does the whole tawdry affair disappear into the ether never to be heard of again.
Pesumably if people do end up in court then there will be some light shed on why DFAT did’nt know what was going on.
Antonio says:
“… Yet they had all the resources and advice of government to help them”
Yes but it doesn’t help when:
a) they ignore the advice; and
b) the public service thinks more about what they think the government wants to hear, rather than what they need to hear.
Grog – Yeah but they’d be able to go into post-graduate psephology programs afterward…
Chris – the underlying sense I’ve gotten from the IT folks who have been spending the last six months preparing their tenders, is that there will be laptops. Were I designing the programme, I would have a issued with a laptop which would be theirs for 3 years. This would keep the random and petty vandalism to a minimum. And having a laptop means their own files, creative work, etc., are portable. Which is important. (Yes, yes, they’ll use servers, etc., but having the work locally is also good.)
I’ve talked to a lot of educators in the past 18 months. Most of them are excited by the prospect of computers taking a larger role in education, but most of them are really aware of the disconnect between pedagogy as it is now (and as it evolved in the 1940s-1950s) and where it has to be in say, 2010. It’s a big gap.
#483 Chris Curtis. Yes and no. Some teachers know how to use computers, some don’t. Those who don’t will need to learn quickly! No doubt they’ll be given KPIs to meet….
smeghedd, I think Rudd will first just want to make sure that any Royal Commission into AWB will get the result he wants.
Typing lessons for primary school kids would also be a good program for the government to implement. My 76-year-old mother has recently bought a computer and learned to use it. Her problem is not the computer, it’s her inability to type. It takes her so long to write me an amail that she usually ends up ringing me anyway.
Antonio @ 491
A big part of what the Government (god it feels good to say that) must offer is comprehensive training for teachers to bring them up-to-speed in all things digital. There isn’t nearly enough of that going on, or even available, for public school teachers. The Federal Government is going to have to take the initiative on this, or this programme is just going to fall over.
And I’d even recommend that teachers/educators get broadband in their homes at specially reduced rates. Sort of like the educational tax benefit, but for the educators.
I agree with William, it wasn’t a landslide. Let’s hope Labor improve on their position in 3 years time by consolidating their marginals and possibly winning a few of the Coalition’s.
Needless to say I’m glad that won’t be for another 3 years.
#492Grog. I didn’t get the impression from Rudd, though, about exactly what result he wanted. Downer and Vaile don’t deserve to escape punishment for AWB, but I suspect Rudd will just put it in the too-expensive basket. It will cose the government a lot of money to re-investigate AWB with wider terms of reference.
Really, if the AWB thing had been about something more sexy thanwheat, it would have brought the government down. Paying bribes to the leader of the country we’re at war with is an absolute outrage.
Antonio
I am sooo with your mother. I have neber learned to type and spend ages rewritin my posts,a nd then get left behind. (that could be because I am a Green of course – …just thought I’d get in first…)
495 marko – anything that makes teaching an attractive career is good policy.
that would be Never and Rewriting.
Grog – Absolutely!
“And I’d even recommend that teachers/educators get broadband in their homes at specially reduced rates. Sort of like the educational tax benefit, but for the educators.”
They can, of course, claim it all on tax. Just about everybody with a home computer manages to claim some, if not all, of it on tax anyway.
That’s why Rudd’s education rebate is quite clever. People with home computers currently claim them on tax, but they won’t be able to do so if they claim the education rebate for the expense. It may not cost the government as much as people think…quite a smart fiscal move really.
Grog Says:
November 27th, 2007 at 8:22 pm
smeghedd, I think Rudd will first just want to make sure that any Royal Commission into AWB will get the result he wants.
What do you think he wants ?
I’m not sure he said much about desired outcomes in the election campaign and indeed much of 2007, however when we were in the thick of the scandal in 2004/2005 he was pretty aggessive in his attacks on Downer et al.
Hopefully he will pick things up from there.
497 Antonio – I guess I was being a bit cynical – I am more in your camp . I think he will first want to find out if it is worth it all. What I mean by wanting to know the result, was he would take advice on the likelihood of new evidence, convictions etc.
If he is advised that the chances of anything comming out of it a low, I would suggest he’ll drop it.
Funny cartoon of Howard and Skippy in the UK Times Online http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/cartoon/
Antonio – Good point. But I don’t know any educators who have thought about about it this way. I’ll spread the word.
William and LTEP, the whole “doesnt feel like a landslide” thing is such waffle, and sounds like Coalition sore-loser crap. But hang on, you dont support them do you???
William @ 474,
It’s not technically a landslide and in truth the Libs are only a few percent away from taking back government but in the end it just depends on your own definition of ‘landslide’. Considering they were repeatedly told they could never capture 17 seats the Labor side probably feels like it’s a landslide and considering the Libs lost much of their leadership they probably feel it as bad as a landslide. Howard was probably closest by calling it an emphatic win.
Antonio,
Yes, some don’t, but more and more do. I increased my department’s usage back in the 1990s simply by getting one put in the English staffroom.
Marko,
The content matters more than the technical means, so let us hope that teachers have some good content to work with.
I thought Rudd on the 7:30 report just then was at his most impressive since he was shadow foreign affairs. He spoke more openly than he ever did in the campaign, and whilst his inner technocrat did come out, everything he said was reasonable. I was seriously impressed with his making every Labor MP visit schools and now homeless shelters. I’m becoming more hopeful all the time.
Chris -
The Medium is the Message; it’s not easy to separate content from the technology. Particularly where the net is concerned. We’ve got to teach the teachers how the medium works before they can even get to the message.
Funnily enough you don’t need to support a political party to have an objective opinion as to what qualifies a ‘landslide’. I’m not saying it doesn’t feel like a landslide. I’m saying it’s not a landslide. Maybe next election.
Nick @ 510
I heart Rudd the Technocrat! He’s boring to tears: steady, stable, reliable and looking for results. I find it very soothing after the peripatetic talking heads of the Coalition. Who somehow always seemed off their meds…
I’d rate the election as somewhere between a comfortable win and a landslide. Despite the disparity in the number of seats, it wouldn’t be a substantial swing needed for the Coalition to regain government at the next election. But they won’t do it, unless there’s a recession.
I was interested in Rudd sucking up to the Treasury in his 7.30 Report tonight, praising their interest in “micro-economic reform” blah blah. Shades of Keating in the way Rudd talked. Labor will use “Treasury advice” whenever it suits them to renege on a spending promise or introduce something harsh. And they’ll get away with it, provided they do it early enugh in their term.
I think its a 2%2PP swing for Labor to lose in 2010 so definitely not a landslide.
The schools visit is just tokenism
David Beckham is almost getting Kevin Rudd like attention from the school kids.
Funnily enough Edward I actually think it’s good to get the members out there and doing some work in the community. Certainly a lot more effective than just throwing money at the electorates once every three years.
“Yes, some don’t, but more and more do. I increased my department’s usage back in the 1990s simply by getting one put in the English staffroom.” (re computer usage by teachers)
Yes Chris you’re right. Put the computers there and the teachers will learn to use them. But some will have to change their teaching methods. And you don’t really understand what computers can do unless you use them for pleasure as well as business (like those of us on Poll Bludger!).
Look at how the whole Irish economy revived by turning IT into a national industry. Australia, with its place in Asia and its English language skills, is ideally suited to doing the same. Computers and broadband in every home is the way to get started, and we finally have a government which at least knows in which direction to head.
ESJ – a 2% swing to the ALP in 2010, will mean you’ll need a landslidde in 2013…
Well regardless of all the votes and swings , Rudd has a clear majority from the people to goven . I was stunned to hear various Liberals saying that any attempt to repeal workchoices would be blocked in the senate . I can remember the 1970’s and the blocking of supply etc , I’ve just seen history repeated- Stanley Bruce and his attempt to ditch Industrial laws and John Howard and his attempt . The remains of the Liberal right wing travellers just don’t get it , the people have spoken so respect their wishes .
And yes I voted ALP this time and so did my wife, her wage rise this year was 50 cents a week, yes 50 cents a week under workchoices, all legal. We want it scrapped .
Perhaps we should look at the Brits and the House of Lords which I understand can’t block bills from the Commons .
I want steady government and stable government – I voted for and so did thousands of others – so let it happen
ESJ “The schools visit is just tokenism”
Better than sitting in the office photocopying fliers bagging Muslims.
Yes, I for one wont miss the hectoring, schoolmarmish, hysterical tone of nearly all the coalition policy pronouncements – particularly those on education.
Rudd’s a breath of fresh air. Boring measurement based policy, rather than faux outrage, pillars of rhetoric, and then generally hapless follow up.
ESJ @ 516. Your comments are typical of the cynicism, excuses, & lack of willingness to get involved with serious issues we’ve come to get used to in the last 11 years.
Thankfully we now have the opportunity to move on, & views like yours will no longer be relevant.
ESJ “The schools visit is just tokenism”
Nope – it’s symbolism. Something you guys should have thought more about for the past 11 years.
Postal votes favour the libs becase more elderly ppl use them
I almost cried when Rudd started talking about the homeless on the 7.30 Report. Finally, I feel like we’re getting our country back.
In the first 48 hours Rudd has focussed on two of the most marginalised and dispossessed people in our country – indigenous and homeless.
I feel very hopeful that at last we have a leader with a heart, as opposed to”ticker”.
Postal votes favour the Libs because Lib voters are scared to attend the polling booths on election day in case Muslim voters appear with suicide bombs and try to eat their babies.
School visits and Homeless shelter visits is just tokenism like ESJ said its Rudd trying to maintain his ‘fuzzy’ warm image with voters. While his new MPs are there perhaps they can report on how they’ve been let down by State ALP Governments???
Dickson and Bowman should still be Tory seats, Herbert i think is a Labor seat as is Robertson and Solomon, but Swan, Macarthur and LaTrobe and McEwen should remain Blue.
ESJ,
As always, the cynical impugning of people’s motives. It must be awfully difficult to watch others “do” when you know in your heart it should be you in charge. You haven’t done anything to deserve it, but your born to rule temprement means you must bitch.
Symbolism is important. Rudd is starting off on a very positive note.
As a Labor member i agree with ESJ it is gimmicky rubbish.
If the members have not been to a school previously, and after they have visited the school what exactly do they attend to achieve? Getting out in the community is not going to a school it is actually particapting in comminity groups or sporting clubs. Going to schools is a silly idea, pure grandstanding rubbish.
Obviously Rudd’s PR team picked up that he needs to talk about homeless people to keep his popularity…
Peter from Bonner,
The House of Lords is not elected. The Senate is, and by a more democratic method than the House. I am completely unfazed by its blocking anything because the Constitution has the remedy – a double dissolution.
As usual Labor supporters who support everything labor does. Don’t any of you have any contrary opinions. I suppose if Rudd told all the members to go to Jonestown you’d all go.
Glen @ 533. As long as he’s not Howard & not in the Coalition, his popularity will be fine for the moment.
Now I know Rudd is doing something right. We’ve got Edward and Glen from the Right attacking him and Marky attacking him from the Left. The Australian people will love him.
#516
esj
At least this “tokenism” will get much needed repairs done to those schools that were deprived of funds because of howard’s meanness towards education, hopefully all schools will benefit. At least these pollies are getting out and about and not hiding in their offices like the Libs used to.
from Mrs Gusface
Participating in sporting clubs Marky Mark? How is that of any use?
To me, visiting schools on a regular basis would be far more participatory than participating in a sports club. Quite frankly, schools don’t get enough attention and I’m please that they’re being made a priority.
Honestly, some people are so cynical it surprises me. How about we wait for them to disappoint us before starting on all this rubbish. Surely you don’t think sending MPs to visit schools is harmful.
MM, give me a break. He hasn’t even been sworn in and you think he has failed to go for the Light on the Hill.
If the Liberals block labor’ mandate than really it is doing only what Labor did to its mandate, that being block it.
Idoit Beazley was responsible for that, nonetheless if they block workchoices it will be a stupid thing for a new leader to do.
marky marky, its not a case of agreeing with everything. Its a case of supporting someone who’s willing to take a fesh approach. Given Howard has done nothing, ANY effort is welcome & applauded.
Only those willing to give something a chance will achieve anything. Sniping from the sidelines does nothing.
Marky Marky, I consider myself quite independent thinking, I fail to see how sending MPs to visit schools and report back is a negative thing.
Of course it’s not going to solve anything… but you’re seriously attacking them for it? Very constructive… perhaps they can go and kick a football and solve the world’s problems.
GG
LOL, we will see.
Coming from NSW we know all about symbolism from Labor governments. Addressing real issues costs money and a determination to tax and spend wisely to achieve results.
I dont have a problem with symbols but lets see if there is substance too or just an attempt to chase the headline.
If I had a born to rule attitude I would not be blogging GG, its a bit like teaching.
Marky Marky they would only go to Jonestown if the rate of TA was increased and a special hardship allowance was paid.
Well thanks for your “concern” Marky
I suppose it would be better for these politicans to remain removed from the problems in their constituency – who wants informed decision making. Marky Mark would probably prefer them to be visting the stock exchange.
Marky Marky & Glen: Attacking Rudd and his ministers over visiting some schools is ridiculous. You are both just whinging for the hell of it. Even if these visits were nothing more than symbolism, what possible harm is in it?
Thanks Chris Curtis
I am not an expert , just a working tax paying family man , I gather a double dissolution cost lots of money , I’ve just voted and after 3 years I’ll vote again , I don’t really want to go to another election in a year or so . Perhaps there needs to be change in the way we are governed , if I under stand this right , if a government has the control of both houses then there is no need for a double dissolution , I further understand the recent Howard government was lucky to get the senate last time . The Senate blocking bills from the elected Government is wrong
Settle down.
Let them go to schools, okay let them but surely the members know what goes on in the classroom already.
Would love to know what does he hope to achieve.
What ideas will come from it, or perhaps they had no ideas on education before the election.
It makes Rudd look stupid IMHO, why haven’t these Labor MPs gone to schools and homeless shelters and childcare places to make reports before being elected, isn’t that their job.
And paul k, if Howard had told his new MPs to go to schools and homeless shelters in 1996 you’d have said it was tokenism.
Rudd is all about appearance, looking as if he’s doing something but he’s doing nothing.
From Crikey for all you cricket lovers.
And now the sporting news, with thanks to A Certain Contributor:
The Old PM’s XI
J Howard c McKew b Hubris 0
P Costello stpd on wkt 0
M Brough c Pantsdown b Swing 0
M Turnbull lbw Pulpmill 12
M Vaile awb Scandal 0
A Downer b Ponce 0
P Ruddock b Disgrace 0
T Abbott c Foot b Mouth 0
B Nelson b Kovko 0
K Andrews b Astard 0
C Pyne b Joke 0
Sundries 1
Total 13
The New PM’s XI
McKew c Huge b Smile 86
K Rudd c Brevity b F-cksake 07
J Gillard Not out 824
P Garrett Not out 0
D Mocracy
W Swan
S Smith
G Combet
N Roxon
M Kelly
B Brown
Sundries 14
Total 941 for 2
“Obviously Rudd’s PR team picked up that he needs to talk about homeless people to keep his popularity…”
Or, alternatively, Rudd actually does care about the homeless. I know, I know, Glen, after nearly 12 years of Howard it is hard to imagine a politician ever doing anything purely for the national interest, but believe me, sometimes politicians, and even PMs do care about their fellow human beings…
Yes, quite agree, symbolic nonsense.
Now, flagpoles and donkey posters. Those are results!
Noocat, the thing is if a Tory leader did that you you’d call it cynical so i believe im justified in calling this stunt in a long line of Rudd stunts.
He’s always in it for image that’s it.
Peter from Bonner, not necessarily if it’s bad legislation.
Scrutiny and accountability is good for a government. If Labor can’t propose legislation that is acceptable to the Senate then the Senate has a mandate to block it.
Yes, that’s right people, the Senate has it’s own mandate. In fact, any party has it’s mandate. Labor can wait until July ‘08 to pass certain legislation and I’d be extremely surprised if the Coalition blocked the Budget next year.
One of the bad things about the Government controlling the Senate is that they remove checks and balances and ways to hold the Executive to account. For instance, they stop committees from investigating into the effects legislation could have on Australians, can refuse to answer questions on notice (for instance on the impact of AWAs) can refuse to allow witnesses to give evidence at Senate hearings etc.
The previous government in fact blocked very simple inquiries, such as creating a map of Australia’s coast line and how it would be effected by different rises in sea level. You’d assume this would be of interest no matter what your belief in Climate change is.
Glen, has her majesty’s loyal opposition announced any intiatives in the last 72 hours, I seem to have misssed them?
“Rudd is all about appearance, looking as if he’s doing something but he’s doing nothing.”
So declares Glen, after only three days of the new government having been elected and not even been sworn in yet. Yep, you’re right Glen, Rudd should have implemented his policy platform by now. It is clear that he only ever talks the talk and never walks the walk.
Glen although i can’t stand your political neo con beliefs, but on this you are absolutely right.
I actually in a way don’t see a problem with the members visiting places, what i have a problem with is the grandstanding and idea that they are doing things being put out their but realistically they are doing nothing.
Oh yes you have problems at your school, we will look into it but in the end not much is done.
It was a landslide. No party in the past 60 years (at least) has come back from 16 seats down to win an election.
Glen,
How do you feel about your best ally against Rudd being the far Left? You and Marky will have lots of fun.
Thanks Lose the election – I agree
“Noocat, the thing is if a Tory leader did that you you’d call it cynical so i believe im justified in calling this stunt in a long line of Rudd stunts.”
Actually, Glen, you’re wrong about that. There are plenty of “symbolic” things that I often wished Howard had done.
HI GUYS DO YOU THINK THERE WILL BE A BY ELECTION IN HIGGINS SOON
Glen, I have just awarded you the ‘Comical Ali’ for Election 2007, you persist as though it is not all over. Get used to it mate, you LOST, save your protestation until about 2018, that’s how long your mob have got in the wilderness.
As i said previously their are number of bloggers on this blog who rarely say anything against their party allegiances. Ideas come from orginal thought and i feel as if many of you have no ideas- that goes for you to Glen.
Yes we’re having a leadership election on Thursday.
Marky the thing is these new MPs as candidates should of been doing this stuff and yet they’re doing it now as a nice media plug that’s the issue.
Last time i heard i thought Rudd had policies on education so why does he need more feedback, but then again Garrett did say they’d change it all when they got in, watch this space.
Malcolm Turnbull
Julie Bishop
The dream team is a firm favourite.
Good to hear from you again Paul K. Left supporter in disguise.
ESJ,
I reckon if you actually listen to what Rudd says and watch what he does, rather than interpret everything through your all knowing, all singing I know it all bullshit generator, then things might be sweet.
I have said before, you really are a glass half empty sort of person.
But, I suppose you will now try to change the subject.
564
Basil Fawlty – so according to you i can’t criticise the new government and if i criticise them then it means ive not got over being beaten in a landslide. Your reasoning is very poor tonight Basil.
I got over the loss on Sunday, im looking forward to Malcolm Turnbull and Julie Bishop getting to work on ACME fightback lol.
Spiros yes no party has come back but what did Labor just do.
Marky,
For Pete’s sake Rudd has only just won the election and hasn’t had time to scratch his bum yet and you are condemning him already. You think you’re so morally pure and above everyone else. You’re just a far left version of Howard. Always condemning and acting like you’re better than everyone else.
The language of politics is full of high-blown rhetoric, often using over-the-top metaphors: “down to the wire”, “cliff-hanger”, “crushing defeat”, “boil-over”, “dog-fight”, “battleground electorate”.. and so forth.
In that context, landslide seems a pretty reasonable description of what happened on Saturday. Somehow it feels better to see it that way too.
I hope Turnbull doesn’t become leader now, I think he is their best bet, but if he gets it now, he is like a ‘transitional man’ ie the guy you go out with after you leave a really long relationship, and transitional man never has a future with you, you use him to get back in the game and then move on.
ESJ. I have always had time for you even if we dont share the same view of the world. But your comment on “tokenism” by our new PM Kevin Rudd either slaps of envy or arrogance. GET A GRIP OF YOURSELF. The best ‘need to know’ comes from the front line not the ivory towers of Canberra.
William I think it is a big reach to say that Franklin was only one of four seats to swing to the Libs in the country because of the personal attraction of the previous Labor member.
Quick was a dill. The swing is more likely to have been related to the damage Quick caused by not backing the original Labor candidate and the presence of a popular Liberal candidate who had more time to campaign.
But better for the ALP if Mal is used up and spat out now! then there will be no-one left of any use or popularity with the people (Malcolm is popular with most people I find except maybe his own party lol)
Cat @ 563.
If there is, it will be after March 18, 2008 when Costello maximises his super payout.
“if Howard had told his new MPs to go to schools and homeless shelters in 1996 you’d have said it was tokenism.”
No. If Howard had done this in 2007, I’d have labelled it tokenism. If he’d done it in 1996, I’d have applauded it. But he didn’t, of course.
Funny how he suddenly discovered the need for aboriginal reconciliation just before his final election. Was this tokenism? Or perhaps his PR team decided he needed to talk about it in order to remain popular….eh Glen?
Only 37 days to go till the Iowa primary, in an election that will change the USA and the world.
http://www.electoral-vote.com
All a bit new to me all this stuff, my family are swinging voters , I voted for Rudd , I hated workchoices as I said it directly affected my family , I am very prepared to give Rudd a go – I voted for him and want to see where it goes , if he is no good well we can make that decision in 3 years time . But I agree he has just got there and a lot of water has to pass under the bridge yet , as for the Liberal team – Turnbull may be it , I understand he agrees with a republic , perhaps that needs to be re-visited is there a chance of agreement between both parties on this one ? and why not on other things too . Julie Bishop – no don’t think so there must be someone else .
Actually Glen,
There are two issues that won Howard a lot of respect from across the political divide.
1. Gun Control Laws after the Port Arthur Massacre.
2. East Timor
535 marky marky Interesting you say you are a Labor member, then you refer to Labor supporters as “you” instead of we.
Someone on radio posed a very interesting question today:
What political leader, state or federal, has been elected opposition leader after a bad defeat – and has then gone onto become prime minister or premier?
The suggestion was that it has never happened. Think Peacock, Beazley, Hayden etc
Flash… Mike Rann?
Peter from Bonner,
LTEP has put my thoughts quite well.
As for the overall Rudd Government, it’s utterly predictable. Kevin Rudd will let the Left have the symbols and the Right will run the country, and in case I haven’t already said it on this thread, Labor will win the next federal election too.
583
BOB CARR
Paul K, i was critical of the schools idea but i can’t do that?
I voice my opinions on things but i can’t do that. It is a democracy and i am thankful that in this country i can voice an opinion.
As i said last night you are entitled to your opinion, just that i dont agree. This site would not exist if it is dull and boring and everyone agreed.
The view that i think my opinion is better than everyone fine, think that way, but if i see an idea that is worth following i go with it or if i see something with my own i will be very willing to change tack.
What i see on this site is a complaceny of ideas and to much metooism, but if i suggest this i am called overly opinionated and better than everyone else. Paul K if you wish to get personal fine.
For heaven sake you need to take into account as to where Labor came from. They were over 4% behind and now are 2% ahead. That in my mind is a landslide. Under normal cerumstances you wouldn’t have expected Labor to make up that deficit.
AG01 and GG,
Fair comment, I admit to the sin of cynicism and I’d be happy to be proved wrong by the new government. In a country as wealthy as ours its a crime that people are homeless and kids do not have access to computers if the new government addresses those issues for real then more power to them.
BTW Glen, I absolutely agree with your “dream team” of Turnbull and Bishop (though I must confess, I don’t have dreams like that). They’re the best combination to get the Liberal Party going again and give Rudd a run for his money. A good Opposition is essential.
And I don’t agree with those who say Turnbull shouldn’t seek the leadership now, because he’d be unlikely to last to be Prime Minister. Costello made the mistake, several times, of not taking the leadership when he had the chance. Howard, on the other hand, grabbed it whenever he could, and sought it again when he lost it. The party eventually turned to him again, when others had tried and failed, and he was still there ready to take over. People with the intellect and talent of Turnbull can get there in the end, if they persist.
I never had much time for John Howard, but he showed the value of persistence. Like a wombat at an electric fence.
Marky Marky
WTF do you want? Your ideas will never be accepted by the vast number of voters that put the ALP in power (particularly the swinging voters). If you dont like the way the ALP will probably govern do us all a favour and p off. If the Government carried out your wishes the ALP would never be elected.
Rudd was great on 7.30 report. He is off to a flyer.
On Sky News Active, I see in the press conference he held today he was aksed “Why he drove himself to work today ?”. He replied that “he wanted to drop his son to school”.
It reminded me of Jim Soorley getting the ferry to work on his first day as Brisbane Lord mayor in 1991.
Well, I suggest we wait out the next few by-elections before we conclude on the number of seats won, and its “landsliditude” or otherwise.
Wont surprise me if Kevin07 is up a few more in a couple of months!
Thanks gg @ 551 – that’s a classic.
Been on the road all day – has there been any news or discussion about the opposition carry-on?
I see you’ve been doing a Kroger, ESJ, about the relative magnitude of the swing, but the truth is the raw percentage difference in landslide elections like the one we just had may not look like much, but the impact is totally crushing on the losers – as in a real landslide. Just look at the total disarray in the LNP.
I’m more interested in the Xmas pantomime that is the LNP transition to opposition than the Rudd ascendancy. The former might tell us more about the future equation. Interesting comments by Farry O’Barrell about the Opus Ugly Dei sect and wanting to take disciplinary measures further over the Lindsay thing. He obviously believes they’re a real threat. So does Baird who effectively said on radio yesterday that they have control in NSW and it’s too late to do anything about it. Look out other Lib state branches.
So what do we see in the leadership candidates –
1. Malcolm leading the wets – Giorgiou, Moylan and co..
2.the Monk as the opus dei champion supported by Alex Hawke, D Clarke etc.,
3. Brendon for the mere Dries, who used to be the far right but who now look like compassion itself beside the Clarkists.
What a set up for the next act of the pantomime – I think this year it will be done in togas.
Oh I see.. Thanks chaps. Mike Rann and Bob Carr. There goes that theory. But it would appear to hold true on the federal scene.
At least the ALP are actually going into the schools, the Libs just stopped and looked at the shiny new flagpole then p#ssed off
Symbolism, tokenism, whatever you call it, I think it’s a great idea. I’m going to ask Rudd to visit schools on a regular basis and not just during election campaigns.
I bet Jackie Kelly had no idea if there were homeless people in Lindsay.
Yes, I’m still here, hard to wean myself.
Flash – Robert Menzies after 1943?
Comment on Random notes by Greeensborough Growler02:23 11/27/2007, Greeensborough Growler, Comments for The Poll Bludger
Actually Glen,
There are two issues that won Howard a lot of respect from across the political divide.
1. Gun Control Laws after the Port Arthur Massacre.
2. East Timor
>/b<
hear hear
soz about the formatting…
My ideas are not that radical, believing in G1 ownership of infrastructure and essential services, getting rid of the private health rebate scheme, and spending on rich schools and more action on climate change. And perhaps scrapping negative gearing or slowly dismantling it and scrapping the capital gains bonuses on home ownership also.
Put simply not much else.
But we cannot do these things. What is wrong with government ownership of the Commowealth Bank or Telstra.
Talkon.. My history not that strong but is the following correct? Curtin won big in 1943 and Menzies, who had been sidelined, returned to take leadership of the new Liberal Party in 1945?
If so, I suppose that example is valid, except to the extent that Menzies wasn’t exactly Opposition Leader right after the 1943 Labor win.
It’s a lot more than symbolism. They have to find out information on setting up the computer system. It is getting feedback, communicating with the schools. Which Howard did not do with his History thing, his funding for priests in schools. His flag poles. WTF. I could go on.
Marky,
You can voice any opinion you want but that’s not all that you do.
First you pretend to be an authority by over and over again saying “As a member of the Labor Party”. It doesn’t impress anyone or make you better than anyone else.
Second, you condemn people and sterotype them. Anyone who doesn’t agree with you is automatically labelled as a brain washed Capitalist. No one who disagrees with you can possibly be genuine. They must a fraud, e.g. “Left supporter in disguise”
Third, you have a holier than thou attitude. Anyone who doesn’t share your puritanical Socialist view of the Universe msut be corrupt.
You are totally up yourself. I repeat you’re just a left wing version of Howard.
After we have visited a homeless shelter what do you all think we should do to help the homeless or what do you think causes it?
Glen I wouldn’t jinx Turnbull and Bishop by calling them the “dream team”. This is what Iain Evans and Vickie Chapman were referred to in SA after the 2006 state election. They barely lasted a year as a double act before Iain Evans was blasted out by Martin Hamilton-Smith. Vickie Chapman is now practically invisible !
Flash says “What political leader, state or federal, has been elected opposition leader after a bad defeat – and has then gone onto become prime minister or premier?”
As well as Mike Rann and Bob Carr, whom others have suggested, you could also argue that John Brumby has now done it…in a rather roundabout way!
Weren’t Downer and Costello also a “dream team”?
The main threat for Turnbull will be the idoits in New South Wales Liberal Party, they perhaps can’t stand him. Along with the George Pells and Professor Flintstone.
601 marky marky They are gone, the government is far more effective in bringing in strong legislation. The old PMG has gone we are in a new era with new technology.
I notice the bitter Liberal troll in disguise is still here ranting against Rudd after three days of being voted in. Very patient of them, couldnt wait to get the bile out. Don’t worry mate, I know exactly what you are.
Marky Marky,
You haven’t mentioned business tax rates – I thought this was a central plank of your manifesto? And you haven’t responsed to my question yesterday as to what you think of France’s subsidies to farmers to let fields lie fallow (thus driving up food prices) when half the developng world is starving. Is that socialism?
Marky there are only 12 NSW Liberal MPs and however many Senators and then maybe a 1/3 are hard right they dont have the clout they did before the election trust me, and if Bishop is smart she’ll try and get numbers from the 30% of members from WA to back Turnbull.
#605 marky
Rudd said that homeless shelters he’d visited had a turn-away rate of 80 per cent or so. He said that shouldn’t happen in a society as wealthy as ours, and he would spcifically ask MPs to report back to him on the turn-away rate in their areas. This, in my opinion, is a bit more than just a token visit. Presumably he wants to fund more homeless shelters, and his election promises included an expansion of welfare housing.
Do you have a problem with this?
Marky Marky, the thing about visiting a homeless shelter is it becomes harder to avoid dealing with the problem.
Most MPs are out of touch so it’s good to give them some reminders.
I suppose you’d think it’d be a bad idea for them to visit Indigenous housing as well.
How about inter-parliamentary delegations… obviously a symbolic waste of time.
I’m really impressed by Rudd’s strategy of sending his MPs out into their electorates to gather information. It not only gives the MPs a much higher profile in their electorate, its the sort of practical, reasoned policy-making that will result in real improvements, not just shallow tokenism like Howard’s flagpoles.
Julie Bishop is about as smart as the rotting prawn heads that Hyacinth has taped under the desks in Kirribilli House.
She’ll only embarrass and ridicule what’s left of the Liberal Party further. The fact she’s being muted as a possible deputy just shows the dire straits the Liberals now find themselves in.
I can’t see the point arguing about the past , Rudd won fair and square , the ALP won a lot of seats so I gather a lot of people like myself decided Mr Howard had to go . Mr Rudd is the PM and perhaps we might see things change like the waste of money – 6 Billion I think on F 18’s that can be run down by Russian SU fighters , I saw this on 4 Corners – this also helped change my vote . I understand other money was being wasted , something had to give – and it did . We changed the Government – its only been a couple of days I look foward to the Parliament sitting. And for the record I am a former service man .
Mike Rann’s turnround in the SA ALP’s vote is quite remarkable after the ALP’s cataclysmic election defeat in 1993:
1993: 30.4% (ALP primary vote)
1997: 35.2%
2002: 36.3%
2006: 45.3%
So an increase in the primary vote of just under 15% ! Not a bad effort.
616 Steph
Yes, when KOB questioned him about this strategy, he said he wanted the MPs to all report back at the same time on particular issues, to both assist in providing information to the government, and so they could participate better in caucus discussions on these issues. Sounds bloody sensible and practical to me.
Maybe all the Labor MPs should also be sent out to inspect Howard’s flagpoles, to report back on what difference they’ve made to education standards at the schools.
On universities: I hope Labor will pursue its education agenda more deeply. In universities, there is merit in attracting high performing researchers & helping out with the training of maths & science school teachers, but what about some funding support for the system as a whole which is frankly in a parlous state. The “dog’s bodies” who have carried the burden of underfunding, ridiculous class sizes & the extra load that comes with for example foreign students should also be assisted, for it is all too often their research & the quality of debate which has suffered as a result of this shameful destruction of our universities. Some attention must also be paid to problems with standards & plagiarism which are all too often tolerated because the fees money is so desperately needed. It is pointless to improve school standards for so many career options if these issues are not addressed too. The notion that research quality is some simple thing to measure also needs to be subjected to serious scrutiny.
Again as i said you entitled to your opinion Paul K.
Will admit perhaps the Labor line is stupid.
What do you what me to say Paul K, i agree with you.
Please get over it.
But i see you as someone who has few ideas, a blogger who mostly agrees with most things by the dominant party.
But if you think i love myself fine. I look at all ideas and question them and listen and take on board all opinions and then state my view. That is what politics is about.
Marky Marky,
I don’t think your ideas are that radical in the sweep of history. I too believe in government ‘ownership of infrastructure and essential services, getting rid of the private health rebate scheme…more action on climate change’ and ‘government ownership of the Commowealth(sic) Bank [and] Telstra’ and I’m a former official of the Victorian DLP. I also believe in stronger pro-worker IR laws than we are going to get, but politics is about compromise.
I was thinking about Howards total abhorrer about resigning and had an epiphany, hell he’s just like me, I will stalk and talk quiet. By nature I’m one of those “waits in the tall grass” kind of ppl. (not saying it’s a good thing, it’s just my reality)
But when confronted with opponents that leap out of the grass, I usually react in the same way.
I knew you were coming and figured you’d strike soon, times suit you and your feeling is that I have no choice because to fight will mean I lose , and I will lose more by fighting back
I usually decide to fight even though I will lose and lose more
I just know that’s the only way YOU never win
Steph and Antonio
You are both right , it won’t hurt the federal members to get out and meet the people , our last member here in Bonner was never seen among the people . After all we are their employers
Marky Marky, I have worked as a social worker in a homeless shelter setting, and by far the major cause of homelessness today is mental illness. When people were de-institutionalised they were promptly deserted by our so called compassionate society. That is the first challenge, to seek new ways to house the mentally ill, it is possible to do so in a setting that gives them dignity and meaning, not to mention proper nutrition and care. While this society is more obsessed with ever increasing tax cuts for the already wealthy, and pandering to the sickening greedy aspirationals, then we can forget any pretensions of compassion.
617 John Ryan
Julie Bishop is about as smart as the rotting prawn heads that Hyacinth has taped under the desks in Kirribilli House.
John, I think in this case you have exaggerated her intelligence, at least the prawns were once useful
yes Basil
I agree , my Reseve Unit used to give its time to help out the homeless , it made your heart bleed , mental illness was so hard to understand seeing people of all ages with the voices . A change in the direction of the country won’t hurt at all .
I never suggested going to a homeless shelter was a terrible thing. More homeless shelters would be a good idea but not a panacea.
But do we all think causes homelessness?
Unaffordabilty of homes, rent prices, no employment, crime, drugs, alcohol disease, lack of spending on homeless services, family breakdown…
Chris yes i agree with you this is a bad thing. All systems i do agree have faults but i think capitalism has the most. No government to me is pure, everyone makes mistakes.
I am not overly happy about using government money to help farmers, especially here.
Chris B, communications is a mess, here we have a government using its money to pay a private company to provide us with a worldclass broadband network, which is ten years overdo, pathetic.
Julie Bishop is as talented if not more so than Julia Gillard you hacks just can’t get over the fact that besides being as intelligent or more so than Julia she’s also a spunk for her age.
#602 Flash
I thought about Menzies, but he doesn’t really fit the criteria. He actually formed his own party in 1945, after Curtin’s big win in 1943. And Menzies had been Prime Minister before the war.
A very good example which has just come to my mind is John Bannon. The Corcoran Labor Government lost to the Liberals, led by David Tonkin, with an 11 per cent swing, yet Bannon regained government in one term.
BTW I think the Tonkin Government, back in the 70s, was the last genuine one-term government anywhere in Australia. There was also the two-year Rob Borbidge National Party reign in Queensland, which began with a by-election rather than a full election.
Which doesn’t augur well for Malcolm Turnbull or whoever will next lead the Federal Liberals to the next election…
Not being a hack by any means , Julie Bishop as a leader no thanks
well glen, my gram’s pretty good for her age too, but she told me to let ya know that she’s taken
Glen, so being a spunk is a qualification as far as you are concerned, well come to the Gold Coast mate and I will show you about 25,000 potential liberal party leaders on any day in the streets.
Peter, she’s running for deputy not for leader.
misanthrope, that’s not cool, not cool…
Basil i didnt say that i said that she merits the position but that as she’s not half bad to look at she can better sell the party than Andrew zzzzzzzz Robb and Christopher whiner Pyne.
Marky Marky,
I’m not against capitalism. I just think it needs to be restrained.
I couldn’t care less if Julie floats Glen’s depraved boat.
She’s as dumb as two piles of dog sh-t and in no position to occupy a serious job. She’ll make Abbot look like a genius.
Basil you are spot on, recently i did Jury Service and two cases i got in court but not a member of the jury involved middle to late aged people with mental disablity problems who were accused of molesting people between the age 10 to 15 years of age, to me it is of grave concern that these people are in many cases being poorly looked after. If such cases did occur or did not their are no winners for the families of the people who may or may not have committed such and the people who such acts it may have been done.
I went home that day very disillusioned with the kind of society we have today and money we are wasting on court cases and problems to all concerned, and here we are on this arguing over middle class welfare, realistically governments today in my view have little idea.
BAsil Fawlty are you BLUEBOTTLE?
I think to be fair to Marky Marky we all seem to agree homelessness is a terrible problem related to mental illness, I think it is reasonable to expect for mine that the government demonstrates substance to go with the imagery before we wildly applaud.
As much as homelessness is a big problem, none of the State governments have fallen over themselves to raise funding either.
I sure hope we get a break from campaigning. It’s been a whole year and we hardly need more. I think Australia will thank Kevin and Malcolm if they have a long break.
Yeah Glen, I go to bed every night and dream of her in black leather and thigh boots, telling me that I have been a bad boy. Maybe you are right after all, hmmmmm
Good one Basil
I am off for the night , I enjoyed hearing the other people on the site .
But for the record – VALE Bernie Banton .
My own father died in 1995 of asbestos cancer , he was the best man I ever knew , served in WW2 in the 29/46 Australian Battalion and worked as a Carpenter after the war , he thought it was cutting in the light fittings in the fribro ceilings that got him . He was another of those unsung australians that got on with life and did the right thing .
This Asbestos thing must be stopped .
Regards everybody
Peter
Glen,
Please explain what you think the role of the Deputy Leader is. Then try and fit who would be the apprpriate candidate.
Marky Marky, fair enough, but that’s not wehat you were saying yeseterday. Yesterday, you were holding the old french socialist government up as some paragon of virtue. I’m not sure if you’ve spent any time in France or spoken to french people, but they have their own set of problems: integration of immigrants, unemployment, inflexible labour laws (The company I work for had to negotiate with unions for 2 weeks to allow my team of 12 to work on a Sunday to upgrade their IT system). It’s not the socialist heaven you hold it up to be any more than I think Kevin07-10 is the solution to all our problems. Paris has homeless people, poverty and crime too.
Mental health is the biggest health and social crisis that faces the country. It impacts all aspects of our lives. It creates poverty, crime and it destroys families.
Even the Immigration disasters of 2005, were strongly linked to our bureaucracy not being equipped to deal people who suffer from mental illness.
Peter my sentiments entirely.
Yes both the State and Federal governments have done little on services for the mentally ill and for homeless people.
I for one am not a big believer of charities, we elect governments to look after the forgotten and that to me is what they should do.
ESJ, BAsil Fawlty are you BLUEBOTTLE?
No I cannot claim that distinction.
I agree that we need substance, but that will only come after this society begins some rigorous self-examination. What should our priorities be? I personally am happy to forego tax cuts, I have all I need. I would be much happier knowing that my government was caring for those who cannot care for themselves. As far as the states go, of course they have to share the burden, hopefully now we will not have to endure the blame game we have had in recent times, Fed vs State.
Someone who can work well with the leader, someone who can compliment the leaders strengths, someone who can sell the party, someone who can help manage the party behind the scenes, someone with experience.
= Julie Bishop
Sounds like Julia G and Penny Wong to me Glen
Yes i probably did perhaps hold it up on the pedestal, and was overly proud of socialist model, and as i said all forms of government have probs but i would much our governments spent our money on policies which help the nation, help the disadvantaged and not on helping the weathly. If the rich want to be rich than let them go out their and do better without government help.
Now i know someone is going to something about investment and globalisation, can see it coming.
I thought you were thinking of bringing back Andrew Peacock.
Or that old guy with the bushy eye brows, you know, what’s his name? Jeff Howard?
Julie Bishop is a joke and makes Dana Vale look considered and intelligent.
Dana Vale for deputy!
Or a prawn head
Mungo is a gem, great article on Howard here.
http://www.crikey.com.au/Politics/20071127-Mungo-The-dubious-legacy-of-John-Winston-Howard.html
Gerard Henderson and Peter van Onselen are on Lateline to discuss the Hward history.
Can anyone explain the AEC figures for Melbourne? The Greens (good on ‘em!) have pulled ahead of the Liberals on primaries, albeit only by two votes! However the Dems, the SEP and the independent (who is actually a Socialist Party candidate) have a much bigger vote that the Larouchites and FF. So the Liberals should clearly be eliminated before the Greens. Yet the AEC still gives a 2pp figure based on the ALP versus the Libs.
‘Yet the AEC still gives a 2pp figure based on the ALP versus the Libs.’
RB, you see these sort of glitches everytime the Greens pull ahead of a major.
Software is yet to catch up with political trends.
Peter van Onselen the one who suggested yesterday that Howard was a great economic reformer. Is he for real?
Not a mention of the previous governments efforts.
And Gerald Henderson a person who will pour cream all over his eleven years and not one word of dissent.
643 Peter from Bonner
Your father was one of many, sadly. Bernie Banton stands for all those who got on with their lives despite the fact that their health suffered because of unsafe workplaces. All the more reason to support the trade union movement, because you can’t rely on the likes of James Hardie to look after their workers.
646, 647
As well as suffering homelessness, people with psychiatric disorders are far more likely to be in prison and to be sex workers than ’sane’ members of society. More power to Rudd if MPs become better-informed about these issues.
The only politicians I ever saw when I was working with the homeless were the Libs who came to close the shelter down, to ’save costs’. Bastards.
Glen,
While I don’t disrespect your personal preference for Bishop in the forthcoming battle, the reasons you have identified would be more appropriate in an election at the local kindergarten.
There is no appreciation of the Melbourne/Sydney block that has always driven Liberalism in this country. The assertions about working in the back ground to manage the party are highly dubious. She is also ambitious for herself. What leader being put into a “pig in the poke” scenario facing the next Lib leader would want an ambitious 2IC?
I have never heard her spoken of as an intellect or a policy driven neophyte. Her debating skills are ordinary. What does she stand for? (apart from smelling nice and wanting to be considered important).
You have to admire Glen for continuing to show up after what would have been a traumatic Saturday night for him! He’s got more courage than the rest of the conservatives. What on earth happened to Steven Kaye, Nostrodamus, Isabella and Ave 07? It’s funny that the trolls haven’t been sighted on this board since November 24 LOL
Can we get some views from the Lib sore losers on how Rudd is performing so far???
To me this guy is a real high achiever. Exactly 2 days after his stunning win he is off visiting schools and unleashing his education revolution plans and hitting the media.
If this was Howard we would have had 1 week of Howard on the champagne celebrating his win and a murmur 3 weeks later from him on TV.
How about Tabitha? maybe she chucked the computer out the window.
And if anyone understands what it’s like to be homeless, it’d be Rudd – being forced to live in a car at the age of 10 has a dramatic impact on the rest of your life.
Glen = Good Conservative
Tabitha = ignorant troll bitch!
655 marky marky
Thanks for this. Mungo gets it absolutely right.
That’s right HH.
Whereas John H*ward was at his mum’s until he was 32!
Actually that is a good point Howard Hater about Rudd i like it.
Beautiful Ryan.
Now i know this will seem childish to some people but there is a game called nostrodamus – the last prophecy. I thought it was fitting somehow
http://www.nostradamus-thegame.com/
Is it wrong of me to say I’d happily have Belinda Neale lose if it meant George Colbran won Herbert? I think a small businessman and McDonalds franchise owner would make a greater contribution to parliament than a proven failure and timeserver.
HH,
Steven Kaye turned up the other night all sour and bitter and has not been seen since. Thommo wrote to the London Times to express his disappointment. But sadly not here.
The others were genuine trolls living under bridges. Apparently Rudd has sent his MPs to check on their status. What a caring sharing guy.
According to Peter O, Andrew zzzzzzzz Robb is firming as deputy for the love of god why would you elect him as deputy??????
Supposedly we got hammered by the female vote and we’re going to put in a man who can make you fall asleep in 1min, say it is not so!
I don’t think Robb has the numbers, but Peter O probably knows the inside feelings of the Party at the moment but still the NSW MPs wont back him and neither will the WA MPs thats a sizable block lost to Robb.
Colbran better win, otherwise we miss out on our V8 supercar track AGAIN!!
Peter Lindsay has had over 10 years to bring the V8’s to Townsville, and every year he has failed miserably.
Colbran might not be any better, but my guess is if Lindsay wins the V8’s won’t come here simply because he is a Liberal member.
How do time servers get preselected Howard Hater?
GG,
How has Landeryou coped with his wrong predictions?
Marky Marky
Theyll accuse you of all sorts of crimes if you dare to question.
ESJ,
Being wrong has never been an impediment to any journalist.
Good to see the big policies issues get precedence Labor Voter, please don’t tell me you voted labor because of this.
GG, Do you regard him as a journalist?
ESJ
they will put me jail if they could, crimes against speaking wrongly about Labor and Rudd and not sharing the hoop la of winning.
Marky,
Thanks ever so much for the Mungo link. One of the most insightful autopsies I’ve read this week.
Saturdsy evening, enormous relief that we did not go permanently to the dark side with Darth Howard is also the way I felt about his defeat.
Glen, I agree with you(surprisingly). Andrew Robb sends me to sleep: the man is a cure for insomnia! Is he permanently on some sort of medication?
Julie Bishop for Deputy!
I have just used Antony Green’s senate calculator on the ABC website to examine the ACT senate vote. Based on the current AEC vote tally, a further swing of just 1% against the Liberal Party would have seen the Greens candidate elected. It was a very close run thing indeed, and whilst I don’t see the political climate being favorable for a Greens win there in the next few elections, a future Greens win there at some future point seems to me to be a realistic possibility.
Greensborough Growler at 664 – what the disgusting Bishop stands for is the WA branch of the Liberal Party, which is already gearing itself up to prevent any backtracking e.g. on Workchoices. The fact that the Libs survived so much better in WA is going to give them much more power in the party. Did you see Wilson Tuckey sticking his oar in? They want to prevent the party from drifting to the centre.
So Greensborough Growler you like Landeryou or like what he writes?
Yes Marky critical thought is not welcome under New Labor, you disguised Liberal troll you!
Hard to decide who’s worse, Henderson or van Onselen—the old fogey or the young fogey.
ESJ,
It’s a Thomas the Tank engine Thing.
He thinks he is, so he is!
I have always admired Mungo because he is insightful and writes it for what it is. Pity their are not more mungo’ around today.
Has the Rodent finished cleaning out the office and shredding all the naughty documents?
I do want your right hand shaking my left Edward.
whoops i left out the not.
Glen, I share your disdain for Andrew Robb. I just don’t see what anyone sees in him. Do they honestly think he has a chance of connecting with ordinary Australians? Seriously… some of these people contesting… Abbot?! Pyne?! Robb?!
When you look at that… suddenly Danna Vale doesn’t sound so kooky after all.
I hope Marise Payne makes it to the Opposition front bench… she’s been wasted for years.
Marky,
I have posted previously about Landeryou as follows.
I find his blog a cross between The New Yorker , Mad Magazine and the old style pamphleteers. The delicious thing is you never quite know which style is playing on any particular day.
He is quite passionate about the causes he supports and scathing of lefties, political correctness and the Greens. I agree his proximity to the truth, at times, is sometimes mediocre (but no worse than the Australian).
He has also broken some good stories and usually has had excellent insights into the Right wing machinations of the ALP.
His personal style is “robust” and has clearly upset many people with his loving caring and sharing attitude. If you judge a man by the qualities of the enemies he makes, then he is very successful.
There are a number of anti-Landeryou sites in operation that spend an inordinate amount of time providing character references, grooming advice and blowing raspberries. For someone so unimportant, he keeps an army of antagonists very, very busy.
My advice is to visit his site, familiarise yourself with his style, pick the bits you like and leave the rest behind.
No doubt others will disagree with this assessment.
Charisma Turnbull and Dull Robb a perfect team.
Jenny @ 687 –
Any thoughts on who do you see Bishop aligning with then of the 3 leadership hopefuls – obviously not Turnbull – but would Bishp/WA go with the Monk or is Brendan far enough right for them?
685
Howard Hater – Robb is as boring as Wayne Swan, though Robb im sure would do a good job of organising the party behind the scenes and with fund raising we need renewal not another 56 year old who’ll be 59 by 2010, Julie Bishop will be by 2010 54 and Pyne will be 43 (though he’s not leadership material IMHO).
The Libs are going to change alot, we’ve won the battle of ideas with Labor but we’re out on our asses because Unca Howie by all accounts outstayed his welcome. It’s going to be tough because not alot separates the major parties now, Unfair dismissals and the War in Iraq is about it as far as i can see and a few things in health and education by they are minor.
Hendo likes my dream team but Peter O reckons Julie will lose to Robb my response = zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.
Spot on Greensborough, just to trying to ascertain if you have links to him or are friends.
GG I am optimistic about a Labor win in 2010, does that shock you?
Hey, I think Robb deserves a go because of the strong action he took to deal with the Lindsay racists. On Lateline the next night, he said he didn’t know who the 3 expelled from the Party were.
“But, didn’t you ask?” barked Tony.
“No”, replied Robb.
GG your not Landeryou are you?
John Ryan-re mental health. couldn’t agree more! High percentage of homeless and prisoners have mental illness and instead of being confined in hospitals where they are treated, medication supervised and are protected while vulnerable we now lock them up in prisons and can be incarcerated indefinitely. Plus they have the added burden of a criminal record. The whole process needs to be reviewed urgently and compared to best practice overseas.
Rud is a going to be a great PM. Turnbull and Bishop are the only options for the libs. They need fresh ideas and new leadership (and to be beaten around the head by bad polls for 10 years) if they ever want to be competitive.
I think they should play the right bower (500 terms) and not the red 4 (abbot) or the 9 (nelson).
Since you claim the right to slander other people from behind your coward’s castle of pseudonymity, Edward, you can’t expect other people to identify themselves at your behest.
ESJ,
Me = Landeryou. No!
Labor winning the next election (not necessarily 2010) bank it!
Adam,
I’m done with trading insults with you.
I am trying to be a better person and not do it anymore.
It’s a pity that the Steven Kaye and Tabbys have disappeared. I had saved several of their more hilarious posts to ask them about after the fact. Thay are prolly busy shredding and/or packing up offices now.
Pancho,
Please eke them out anyway.
Rudd looks great as PM. At long last, someone who really does want to have a go. I can’t say how relieved and happy I am.
I’ll believe it when I see it.
Gee Hyacinth better get use to going with Jho on his morning walks once he loses his security entourage because the way he has forgotten things lately there’s every chance he wont find his way back.
A lot of you are missing the point.
Visiting a homeless shelter, a school, an indigeneous community, whatever is not going to fix the problem. But it will raise an awareness in the minds of the people who are about to take over the leadership of this country.
Human beings ( and politicians mostly are made up of these,with the possible exception of Philip Ruddock) are impacted upon by their personal experiences. This then informs the decisions they make.
It may appear to be tokenism, but in fact it is about gaining first hand knowledge of a world that they are otherwise sheltered from.
It is how effective policy should be generated.
Ok – they’re in a word doc not with me. I’ll hit you with some non-sequiturs tomorrow.
Go easy on me Pancho, i did watch ‘Downfall’ yesterday as i promised last week.
Viewing the data on the Landeryou Election Map The greens are within 30 votes of out polling the Liberal Primary. If I was a Green I would not get my hopes up and I do not think Tanner will lose any sleep. The drift away from the minor parties would not see an upset. Besides I guess it might be seen as some sort of Victory to force a change in the expected TCP. (lol) But in reality we will never know as Tanner looks like wining on primary alone. Now 14 seats within 1%. As the count progresses we need to move the barrier of doubt to less then 0.5%
Jen,
Pure and simple, you are right!
Pancho at 710,
I asked Stephen K why those 6 liberal-voting teachers weren’t enought to swing Qld to Howard and suggested he should have attended more BBQs, but he didn’t answer yesterday.
Been out, tonight.
Maggie Beer, Meet the Author. In the electorate of Boothby.
Great speaker, Maggie. Passionate, personable, human. Spoke of water, food, fresh, grow your own, teach the kids.
Maggie spoke of Stephanie Alexander’s great school kitchen gardens project, and especially of ALP policy, in this regard.
Refreshing myself on this, it is:
‘Federal Labor tackles childhood obesity by bringing the kitchen to the classroom
Media Release 20th August 2007
A Rudd Labor Government will provide $12.8m over four years to fund a Kitchen Garden Pilot Program in 190 primary schools across Australia.
Based on the successful Stephanie Alexander Kitchen Garden Program in Victoria, the program tackles the rising trend of childhood obesity by giving children hands on experience in healthy eating.
The program teaches children in years 3 to 6 how to grow, harvest and cook produce as part of the school curriculum.
By introducing children to the pleasures of growing and preparing fresh food and sitting around a table to share a meal, the Kitchen Garden Program provides an opportunity to develop positive behaviour in children’s early years.
This curriculum-based health initiative gets children interested in healthy eating, not because it’s “healthy” but because it is fun and the food tastes great.
A Rudd Labor Government will:
Fund the Stephanie Alexander Kitchen Garden Foundation to establish the Kitchen Garden Pilot Program, train teachers and staff and oversee the administration of the program.
Establish an infrastructure fund to provide grants of up to $60,000 to 190 schools to fit out kitchen and garden facilities’.
Etc.
Huge round of applause.
Suggested to the organiser that Maggie may consider candidature in Boothby, next time round.
Thanks GG
it’s why I really think we voted Howard out –
People do actually give a toss after all.
Night.
Do we have any further intelligence on the subject of Tuckey losing O’Connor to the Nats?
Go jen! Not in a catching up mood, but can I throw in from here that these charges of ‘tokenism’ are also what we referred to, about 12 years ago, as ‘leadership’ or ’symbolism’. You know, the kind of semiotic politics that made people hopeful and future minded before we mortally feared ricketty boats and INTEREST RATES! I am grateful they’re coming back like a charging Joe McDonald.
Liberals and leadership spills. Can’t organise a root in a brothel with a fist full of fifties.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/27/2103066.htm
Glen@717 – you were tough but fair. Hoping against hope in the same way I was in the leadup to the Latham debacle. No gripes against you here. Some of your pals on the other hand…
Where are these Libs meeting in a telephone booth?
#727
Two man tent
Actually how about a two man canoe going over a waterfall?
I agree with various posters here who were impressed with Rudd’s effort on 7:30 report.
A PM talking of measurable targets, accountability and transparency – how fresh the air smells.
I did notice what may well be Rudd’s template for picking away at Howard’s middle class welfare.
Step 1: Define a target (in this case a PC for every student above year 9)
Step 2: Measure the current state
Most private schools – shed load of PCs.
Most govt schools – golly not that many PC’s
Step 3: Determine how to reach the target – Direct more funding to Govt schools
In the campaign, this approach would have been open for attack. It is much harder for a well fed right winger in opposition to challenge. Particularly if they are trying to shake the “mean” and “greedy” tags.
Does anyone know when the polls on the Senate will be finally decided- when will they be declared. Is it possible it may be next year?
Albert F – I agree. He can’t be seen to be making any overt ideological moves, and nor does he want to – he’s too politically astute. Neither can he make cuts to things that a lot of the party would find disagreeable, like the private health rebate of the school funding formula. I envisage incremental creeping generally, along the lines of greater funding to public works, while current private subsidies are kept in place.
Crikey Whitey #721 Stephanie Alexander is actually the niece of Wilfred Burchett. Given Margaret Fulton’s recent revelation that she used to be in the Communist Party and Stefano Di Piero’s well known left-wing affilliations I’m not at all surprised that Maggie Beer is on the side of the angels.
Crikey Whitey #721 Stephanie Alexander is actually the niece of Wilfred Burchett. Given Margaret Fulton’s recent revelation that she used to be in the Communist Party and Stefano Di Piero’s well known left-wing affilliations I’m not at all surprised that Maggie Beer is on the side of the angels.
Pancho,
“Politically astute” is spot on. I suspect we (and the liberals) are just finding out how astute.
I’m reminded of Tony Blair who during his first campaign was dubbed “Tony Blur” because he appeared to stand for nothing and spoke in cliches.
Once in power his message and methods become more focused – much to the the detriment of the conservative party.
If Tony is any guide the Liberals need only wait ten years before the Rudd effect wears thin.
If Blair hadn’t allowed himself to be conned by Bush into the Iraq War he’d still be PM today. The Tories never laid a glove on him, it was the Bush connection that brought him down. Rudd won’t make that mistake.
Food for thought, thanks to you, among others, who take the time to seriously observe.
It is important. Very.
Did not see the 7.30 Report. Heart lifted even more at posts commenting on Kevin’s words.
Among others, not least.
377 gough
435 El Nino
437 paladin
443 Grog
467 Antonio
474 William Bowe
521 Peter from Bonner
523 Lefty E
So far.
Great, Robert Bollard.
Great, Robert Bollard.
xxx
Just thought I’d resurrect this Article from Janet Albrechtsen in early 2006:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,18471186-601,00.html
Her response to speculation about Gillard becoming leader of the opposition at that time:
“Gillard is single and childless, has the Mark Latham albatross hanging around her neck and has been a strident critic of the US alliance. Add the scary robot voice and you have more than certain defeat at any foreseeable future election: you may well have the recipe for the collapse of Labor as the natural alternative to the Coalition at federal level.”
Well Janet, she’s now the deputy PM-elect of this nation. And I can only forsee the Coalition possibly collapsing as the natural alternative to the ALP at federal level! How rapidly things change.
The pre-polls are having a dramatic effect on Rudd’s majority. Seats with ALP TPP greater than 50% are down from 89 at the close of counting on Saturday, to 84 at the close of counting on Tuesday. That’s a cut of 10 in the majority. Postals and Absents could send it back the other way though.
Sinic
I look at the ‘oz’ online for “George Mega” and occasionally Paul Kelly
I ignore their ‘news’ and all other bloggers like Janet , heridan , , Shanahan etc as they so right wing
Adam,
Certainly Blair following Bush into Iraq drained much of his political capital (as it has for Bush, Howard, the spanish guy etc etc). I think the good ship Rudd will, over the years, collect some barnicles and slow down – but I’m very optimistic, excited even, that we have at least two good terms of government ahead of us. We might even see our first female PM after that.
Albrechtsen has said some stupid things in the past. I remember an article earlier this year where she was trying to suggest that generation Y are “young-fogies” who adore John Howard. But ever since then, polls have shown that the biggest anti-Howard vote has been amongst the 18-24 year old group.
Albrechtsen lives in an extreme-right wing fantasy world where everything that happens points to the end of Labor and the rise and rise of Howard and conservatism. She must be in serious psychological conflict now that the Liberals are out of government everywhere and her hero, Howard, has even lost his seat. Somehow, though, I don’t think there will be a reality check for her. She will happily continue to live in her parallel universe, perhaps coming out long enough to talk up the prospects of a resurrection-style return of Howard. If The Australian cuts her lose, then she is one journalist that I will not miss. She is irrelevant in the age of Rudd.
740
Geoff Lambert Says:
November 28th, 2007 at 12:35 am
The pre-polls are having a dramatic effect on Rudd’s majority
I kept the aec 2 PP totals at midnight Sat nite compared to 2 PP midnight tonight
- there have been 248,745 2PP votes allocated since with the Liberals getting
2PP 139015 of them being 55.89% !
But I have not calculated which seats the 248,730 was counted in
However the Labor @PP has dropped 1/4 % on 2PP in 48 hours
from 53.41% 2PP to 53.19% 2PP
Albert F yeah, Julie Bishop could make a fine first female PM.
if Julie did not have a skirt , glen would not be interested
probably would go for Dolly Downer
740 Geoff Lambert
That’s pretty scary.
I was chatting at the booth with someone (Labor) who had worked on the pre polling in Aged Care Homes.
As a sample of Hmm.
Without suggesting that first in best dressed, may influence the voter, I was left with a distinctly uneasy feeling.
Not that he had influenced the voter, but the ease of it.
My dear old late Mum, a Labor voter all her life, a Howard Hater, but in a nursing home, suffering a degree of dementia, said to me prior to the last election, when trying to discuss with her current events, that John Howard was a good bloke.
I resisted the impulse.
Rudd was back to his old cliches and phraseology on the 7.30 report. A totally unremarkable performance. Dry and daft.
Ah, I shall miss the days of the comedy half-hours between Kerry and Howard/Costello.
Ha even Ron the ‘red’ likes Julie
lol Ron cracks me up and enough of the gay jokes they only reflect on you lol!
Glen, we might have to wait on that one. My suspicion is that Bishop won’t hold up without all the accoutrements of government backing her up. But if she makes deputy we’ll start to find out.
Get use to it GP….WE’RE BACK……WE’RE BACK
True but either way we should be open to idea of a woman as PM, but Gillard i don’t think would wash well with the electorate and who knows about Julie Bishop.
Rudd on 7.30 Report said he would take ‘advice’ whether to persue AWB bribe scandal
Bet Dolly Downer is sweating now…Dolly may end up in remand
..maybe with gays is OK
Dolly meet BUBBA!!!!!!!!!!!!!…..hahahaha
752
Glen Says:
November 28th, 2007 at 12:55 am
True but either way we should be open to idea of a woman as PM, but Gillard i don’t think
Well seeing the Liberals are going to be out of power for min 2 terms ,
you need to back your statement with a suggested LABOR MP
Glen, do you really think she will stick around for that long?
Julie Bishop is just another airhead like her mum Bronwyn Bishop
Oh, my God. The kids are on the loose, again.
This is mine to Possum, today. Just a reminder. Glen and Co. World as it is.
Unsurprised to find tears streaming down.
As I read. As I listen.
Possum Comitatus, The Pollbludger, the bloggers, the MSM commentators and opinionists of regard, the talkback callers and letter writers, expressing their exit poll emotions.
Of recognition, acknowledgement, sadness, betrayal, anger, bitterness, shared and long held surfacing pain.
Of relief, joy, humble pride, hope, a tempered optimism.
Thank you. There must be a God, as Tony Abbott and others may yet conclude.
Advance Australia.
Fair.
She’s only 51 atm, she could go another 10 years in Parliament it’s possible who knows next time i see her ill ask James.
red wombat Says:
November 28th, 2007 at 1:01 am
Julie Bishop is just another airhead like her mum Bronwyn Bishop
Now I have to defend Glen’s ‘Julie fantasy
…she is not as bad as ‘points of order Mr Speaker’ Bromwyn Bishop surely
One thing is for sure B. Bishop will be making lots of points of orders in the next Parliament, she’ll probably be thrown out for making so many lol.
Did anyone read that Turnbull is one of many defendants in the NSW Supreme Court case re the collapse of HIH…he was an adviser TO Rodney Adler of FAI !!
talk about poor judgement with Adler who was sent to jail
not a good look for a new opposition leader
#
761
Glen Says:
November 28th, 2007 at 1:08 am
One thing is for sure B. Bishop will be making lots of points of orders in the next Parliament, she’ll probably be thrown out for making so many lol.
She is not even as talented as Jenny Macklin
Yeah, there’s a pong about postals.
First, the Libs sent out official looking packages about postals (could have passed for Oz governemnt)
Then, when a voter indicated they wanted one, the Libs were able to coordinate sending a packet of Lib info at the time the postal vote arrived from the AEC.
Im not saying this is overly dodgy – Im more thinking the ALP should get as organised next time.
764
Lefty E Says:
November 28th, 2007 at 1:12 am
Yeah, there’s a pong about postals.
This warrants investigation surely
you expect this type of voting corruption in the USA
What about Turnbull’s conflict of interest in giving ten million dollars to one of the chief financiers of his Wentworth campaign for the “rainmaker”? do you think this baggage might hold him up if he gets the leadership?
764
Lefty E Says:
November 28th, 2007 at 1:12 am
Yeah, there’s a pong about postals.
First, the Libs sent out official looking packages about postals (could have passed for Oz governemnt)
If you send details of your info to at least TWO Labor MP’s it might get checked out
Clearly this is an abuse by ANY incumbent government labor or liberal
No 765
It hardly got any coverage gaz, and will have no effect on Turnbull’s prospects, just like the Heiner affair did not damage Rudd’s ability to win office.
If I was Turnbull, I would run dead in this ballot. Let Nelson take the heat for the next loss and then come in as the white knight rescuer of the party.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/cashedup-wa-key-to-bishops-bid/2007/11/27/1196036892882.html
Cashed-up WA key to Bishop’s bid
Michelle Grattan
“Ms Bishop said the Liberals had to consolidate their traditional base and build support among young people, women and disaffected Liberals.
People would feel “quite liberated” to express their views about the direction in which the party should go, she said. While the public acknowledged what the last government had done on the economic side, the party needed to look at areas of social policy where it had lost support, including environment, health and welfare.”
As told to me by an ALP senator’s staffer, Ron.
So I guess at least one knows.
Umm, they are not related – Bronwyn’s offspring is the equally vacuous Angela of Network Ten infamy.
On the topic of Bronnie. Why does she bother, its not as if she still has delusions of leadership or anything is it? She is taking up space in Mackeller one of the safest seats in the country and not really making any sort of useful contribution to the Liberals. The womans a lawyer, so why doesnt she get out and make a quid?
If HIH as a waiting in the wings, for Turnbull, is no problem for an intending Liberal leader, what hope for them?
No 772
The Liberal Party could use dead candidates in Mackeller and Berowra and still win.
This is good for a wee laugh: Howard packs up the office.
Warning: 500 former Lib staffers looking for work. Will wedge for food.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/leavin-on-a-free-plane/2007/11/27/1196036892885.html
Pardon me, 773.
Rhetorical.
Lefty E Says:
November 28th, 2007 at 1:20 am
As told to me by an ALP senator’s staffer, Ron.
So I guess at least one knows.
Fair dinkum Left I would let another know BECAUSE as I blogged earlier
there has been 248,745 2PP votes counted since Sat mid night
with the LCP getting 55.89%
and as there are a further 3.2 million votes to count
Nice to see they are suitably dressed, in mourning colours, Lefty E.
For themselves, one says, hard heartedly.
my point was you expect the 248,745 votes counted to be
reasonably spread ALL OVER the 150 seats ,
so the 2PP 55.89% defies the previous 10 million votes counted over the same 150 seats ?
Okay… Who is impressed with Rudd so far???
This bloke just won an election and he is out there visiting schools and setting policy timelines.
How the hell does this guy have this much drive?!?! He’s just had the political fight of his life for a campaign that ran for 12 months(forget the “6 week campaign” BS) and he’s out there the next day visiting schools and holding press conferences, and laying out what policies will be put through and in what order, as well as setting benchmarks.
I have to say I’m a little jealous of how much drive this bloke has… it’s incredible.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22832056-7583,00.html
…and thus does Pearson apply the Fuglies kiss of death to Abbott’s candidacy. Damnation! I was hoping to see Abbott get it – that would have been funnier than a barrel of neocon orang-utans on a Nantucket sleigh ride…
Righto, bones, arse.
From Tony Wright’s associated article.
‘Mr Howard will be given an office, a staff member, a driver and a gold card allowing him and his wife free travel for life, plus an annual pension of about $330,000′.
Bob Brown wants $30 a week for pensioners.
Any quick math mind out there?
No 780
Actually, given that John Howard suffered such a disappointing defeat on Saturday, I was surprised that he could still get out of bed the next morning to go for a walk.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22832057-7583,00.html
The Liberal future lies with Turnbull
Support for the Tream Team, Turnbull and Bishop continues to build.
783
Crikey Whitey Says:
November 28th, 2007 at 1:38 am
Righto, bones, arse.
From Tony Wright’s associated article.
Crikey ,
the ALP believes in ‘equity’ both in opportunity and for those on hard times
the LCP believes in every man for himself
(camoflaged as the rights of the individual” and ‘freedom of choice”
780 LaborVoter
A thing of beauty.
Should you read back, LaborVoter, you will find satisfaction on the topic of Kevin the Keen 07, 08, 09, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14….
Good lad, that Kev!
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/rare-loss-looms-in-the-west/2007/11/27/1196036893166.html
Rare loss looms in the West
Hussar!!!
“WEST AUSTRALIAN Kim Wilkie is at risk of earning the unwanted distinction of being the only sitting Labor member to lose his seat.
Mr Wilkie, the member for the Perth seat of Swan since 1998, was trailing the Liberal Steve Irons by 30 votes late yesterday.”
Night ya’ll.
about time, glen.
Glen 784
‘Tream Team’?
Actually, there are some interesting anagrams for Turnbull/Bishop;
Hubris Bunt Poll, Blot Blur Punish, Troll Bub Push In, Stubborn Uphill,
Rubbish Null Top, Blob Hurls Input…
F**k me, I haven’t stopped laughing or three days!!!!
I certainly don’t think you have won the battle of ideas Glen – at the very least that is a contestable proposition. And your defeat had a bit more than Howard just outstaying his welcome.
I think it’s interesting to revisit the observations of Koutsoukis a couple of months ago on where the Liberals find themselves:
“Just weeks away from a federal election they seem destined to lose, these are dark days indeed for the Liberal Party.
“Out of government in every state and territory, losing power in Canberra will leave the Liberals very nearly bankrupt. And not just financially.
“After 11 years of being run by a policy contortionist, it’s difficult to see why the Liberals want to be in government.
“They don’t stand for paying less tax, not for less regulation, not for smaller government, not for protecting civil liberties, not for investing in universities, not for the arts or sciences, not for a fair go in the workplace, not for states rights, not for an open economy, not for less welfare, not for caring for the planet and not for respecting international law.
“About the only thing it does stand for is John Howard. A man who in nearly 13 years never had the courtesy to invite his own deputy over for a meal — an act of selfishness almost unparalleled in Australian politics.”
The Liberals’ only major reform of the last three years, Workchoices, was totally rejected. More to the point, Workchoices was held up as an article of faith by the party – Howard said so himself, in exactly those words. What does that suggest about the Libs’ future ideological underpinnings?
The overriding impression given off over the last three years (I’m being generous by restricting it to that) has been of a government which, having accomplished most of its ideological agenda, was intellectually bankrupt.
I am reluctant to say at this stage that the population has seen the ugly face of neoliberalism which the Liberals espouse, and rejected it comprehensively. I think it’s too early to make a determination on whether this election was anti-Howard, or pro-Rudd (I suspect a bit of both, but mainly the former). But to borrow a phrase, you guys got whacked. This simply wasn’t an election which Labor should have been in with a chance of winning, but they did, comfortably.
Certainly, Labor has shifted to the right, out of political necessity – experience tells us how ruthless Howard has been at playing the wedge on anything he could. I’m not too happy about it, but I accept it because it’s reality. Fact is, ideals don’t count for jack when you’re in opposition. But now that Howard has gone, I like to think that Rudd can concentrate on doing his thing, rather than worrying about the possibilities for wedge. It’s underplayed in the mass media, but this is (IMHO) one of Howard’s most damaging long-term legacies – that he has forced convergence between both major parties on so many policies. And as you say Glen, it has now also made it very difficult for you guys.
Having said that, if one accepts the argument that JWH was the driving force behind the Liberals’ electoral success over the last decade, as I think is the case, it is also possible to make the case that his overwhelming rejection is a rejection of the ideas platform that he stood for. Howard’s policies have always been anti-worker – what Workchoices did was come to exemplify the totem of Liberal Party ideology in all its ‘glory’, and finally drive home to “Howard’s battlers” that the guy was not, in fact, on their side. If Labor can find a way to make that message resonate, that will be immensely damaging to perceptions of the Liberals as competent governors in the interests of all Australians. It will take a long time to wear off, too.
From the Oz.
Teaser for you.
Howard went too far, say employers
Brad Norington and Ewin Hannan | November 28, 2007
FLAWS in the ousted Howard government’s workplace laws and its failure to woo public support for them attracted strong criticism from employers yesterday.
What a surprise they somehow didn’t find the opportunity to do that before the election.
I hope Rudd gives them the reception they deserve (wishful thinking I know).
This is actually a silly comment. The Liberal party actually came out of it quite well, I truly thought it was the end of the party and quite angry about the damage done by the right wing nutters and liberals like me who didn’t get involved in politics and face them. The position is a little worse than the low point of the labor party but not much. You may have noticed the labor party came back with centralist policies and took government in every state and federally. If Turnbell gets the leadership, moderate liberals rejoin the party and good candidate material comes forward there is some hope of the liberals once again taking control of the party and government.
At the moment the Federal Labor party has one big strength and weakness, Rudd. If anything happens to Rudd politically then I think Labor will be in trouble. As a deputy Gillard is to be admired (very capable and astute women), but I doubt she could run the show ( but I wouldn’t put money on it).
On the other hand, if Rudd survives ( as I believe he will) he will probable be crowned the best liberal prime minister Australia has had ( I believe the crown is currently held by Keating, I know some would argue Hawk). Howard was a right wing reactionary prime minister who had very little respect for our institutions, if your into that sort of thing I am sure he is the best of the set, but as I know very little of Australian politics pre war I am not in a position to judge.
The problem for the Liberal party is Rudd may end up being the longest serving prime minster. However I can’t see labor surviving in all states if the Liberal party put up viable alternatives. The NSW labor government is a mess ( unfortunately the Liberal party is a bigger mess) and the Victorian Labor government carries a lot of baggage ( Brumby however may hold it together), the Liberal party in Victoria is in a OK state.
Nothing is certain in politics.
I think its about time the lack of anonymity was looked at. The RAA (SA auto club) provides two envelopes with its postal ballots. You place the ballot paper in the unmarkd one which then goes into the outer addressed one which has your name, membership number etc. Once these are checked the inner envelope is removed and tossed into a pile with the others before being opened so maintaining anonymity. OTOH, the AEC person opening postal ballots knows who you are and can check who you voted for. Not good enough, IMHO.
OMG! Better get mum to shred her stack of old Women’s Weeklys and MF cookbooks before ASIO start taking an interest!
#734 Robert Bollard
If memory serves me correct, Robert, Maggie was actually one of many that was inspired by Don Dunstan.
What a dill that Foley was/is. If he wanted a celeb candidate and she was willing to run, she’d ave won it in a canter.
Glen, during the campaign she washed pretty well with the voters. That is why the ALP used her so much. Get used to it. She’s not a liability. Nor is Swan for that matter.
Running late, but the ACT issue caught my eye.
The public-service axeing announcement lost some votes, among younger age-groups unfortunately.
These younger people, and lower-level public servants are/were terrified and have been for months. They are also more likely to have been cushioned or protected from the real politicisation by their mid-level managers, and also more likely to be in that nervous mortgage-belter demographic.
Also, as in any heirarchical organisation, there are more people at the bottom of the organisation, than at the top.
Labor did make a mistake in that announcement, mostly because it alienated the younger age-group vote and mortgage-belt demographic. It was these young voters, and ANU student voters, (many of which would be looking for careers post-graduation in the PS) who were supposed to help elect Kerrie Tucker by turning to the Greens, and also running on the back of Rudd’s popularity with the “youth vote” nationally. Labor?? Don’t scare the children! LOL
Middle-level older ones (and some SES) who went through the before and after the tsunami of 96, and especially those who remember working under previous Labor too, have been praying for a Labor victory for 4 freaking looooong elections, in order to get on with the job of developing sensible national policies, programs and service-planning, and know that its the old-guard SES that gets most culled.
Some of the small and medium business sector alienated as well, because they are dependent on local clients. If you sack too many public servants, as Howard did in 96, it causes a “ripple effect” onto the local city micro-economy.
Restaurants, entertainment, shopping centres, clothing stores, garden supplies – you-name-it etc… everybody sees a downturn in business, as they sure did in 96, and it *hurt*. Many businesses went to the wall and fell like dominoes within weeks. Took several years for the city’s business community to recover, and Rudd’s announcement might have sent a shock-wave through some of these sectors.
I certainly remember how the real-estate market plummeted so suddenly and my house was suddenly worth 20% less than the insured replacement value!
Labor also did not campaign much in the ACT at all, being ’safe’ it was left alone as it usually is, but Liberals did more than they usually do, and they targeted both the “grey vote”, as well as the younger nervous mortgage-belters on housing affordability, in our own outer suburban housing developments. (Yes, Canberra does have them too!)
TO WILLIAM BOWE
LCP gains 54.09% of 2PP counted votes since Sat midnight till Today 5.30PM
(of the 2PP 440,313 2PP counted votes)
William , is there any reason for this trend ?
Corangamite, which was given to labor on the AEC website, is now listed as doubtful. Macarthur seems to be making a late come back, only 800 odd votes behind on TCP (85.1% counted):
CHEESEMAN, Darren; ALP; 40,305 votes; 50.48%
McARTHUR, Stewart; Liberal; 39,538 votes; 49.52%
anyone willing to comment on the likelihood of Macarthur making a late comeback?
ESJ-GG may not be Slanderyou but sounds like an apologist. GG is either not familiar with the trail of devastation left by AL or doesnt believe it. If he wants to read all about it there is a Liquidators report into the former Melbourne Univesity Student Union Inc that details the exploits available at Victorian Supreme Court.
Im not sure there are any sites left up about him anymore but the wheels of justice turn very slowly and I guess thats what motivates people. I keep hearing that the Police are going to be turning up on his door step any day but alas nothing happens.
800 comments ! bloody hell – i had to use the find button to keep up!
Further to O’Connor and Wilson Tuckey’s fate – ALL the parties are giving the Nats first preference ahead of the libs and labour, including the CDP.
Tuckey called this a ‘conspiracy’ in the Albany Advertiser on the Thursday before the elections. However, it may have something to do with his personality. He’s declared that he reckons there will be plenty of leakage from the Greens giving their 2nd preference to Labour instead of following the How to Vote card. But ask yourself this – what Green vote is going to resist the temptation to oust Tuckey against the long shot of a 21 year old ALP neophyte?
There will be some leakage from the Green HTV card but all the other minor candidates are preferencing the Nats ahead of the libs and nearly all these candidates represent various right wing causes. So there’s no reason why their voters won’t follow the card. As someone pointed out the CDP votes alone are enough to put the Nats ahead of Labour (and hence the Labour prefs go to the Nats) – if we assume the CDP prefs go 100% to the Nats that leaves the Nat candidate 2139 votes behind Tuckey. The Greens have 4200 votes to be distributed and there’s 3900 odd minor party/ind. preferences all of which have how to vote cards going to the Nats. Only 75-80% of these votes need to go to the Nats to beat Tuckey by my reckoning!
Mind you there are still 7 booths to be counted including postals and absentees etc. But anybody who thinks this show is over – is kidding themselves IMHO.