• I’ve variously heard it said that this election was Labor’s biggest ever win, and their biggest ever swing. I presume this is because nobody can be bothered looking past 1949, a benchmark year due to the expansion of parliament, the election of the Menzies government and the fact that the AEC’s historical two-party preferred figures don’t go back any further than this. However, John Curtin’s wartime victory of 1943 had it all over Rudd’s performance. Curtin won 66 per cent of the seats from a primary vote of 49.94 per cent, up 9.78 per cent from 1940. Rudd has won probably 58 per cent of the seats from a two-party swing currently at 6.5 per cent. I personally am not willing to call this a “slide”, be it of the land- or Rudd- variety, given the score on the primary vote is 43.95 per cent to 42.68 per cent (UPDATE: Coalition vote now 41.54 per cent). I was actually expecting the Labor vote to be slightly higher, hence my exaggerated expectations for the Greens in the Senate.
• It is a remarkable fact that there are two seats which the Liberals might gain from Labor, given that there were only four seats in the land which swung to them. The potential gains are the Perth seats of Cowan and Swan, the former of which has definitely been won while the latter is once again going down to the wire. The 2.2 per cent swing in Cowan can be readily explained by the popularity of retiring sitting member Graham Edwards, but rapid suburban expansion in the seat would also have been a factor. The swing in Swan, while only 0.2 per cent at this point of the count, is coming off a disastrous campaign from an accident-prone candidate in 2004. Other seats in Perth swung slightly to Labor. The 3.1 per cent swing that won them Hasluck was at the upper end of the range.
• Interestingly weak swings to Labor in McMillan and Gippsland, which were also areas of weakeness for Labor at last November’s state election.
• A little further to the west, swings were in the exact 5 per cent to 6 per cent range Labor was shooting at. Deakin has been won for only the second time in its history, while McEwen and La Trobe are still in doubt.
• Not hard to spot the odd seat out in South Australia: with swings elsewhere of between 4.3 per cent and 11.0 per cent, Nicole Cornes could manage only 2.0 per cent in Boothby. Makin and Wakefield swung heavily enough that they’re outside the Labor marginal zone, but not so Kingston, which produced the state’s second smallest swing at 4.3 per cent.
• The Liberal vote proved curiously resilient in the Australian Capital Territory: they were down only 3.7 per cent in the Senate, enough that Gary Humphries retains his seat, with swings of below 2 per cent in the two lower house seats.
• This election produced even less support for the “doctors’ wives” thesis than 2004. There was very little movement in inner Sydney and Melbourne, either in safe Labor or safe Liberal seats. The most notable beneficiary was Joe Hockey in North Sydney, where a harmless 4.3 per cent swing was nonetheless a relatively poor result by inner urban standards. Sophomore surges for Julie Owens in Parramatta (7.7 per cent) and Chris Bowen in Prospect (7.3 per cent).
• Outer Sydney swung as heavily this time as it famously did in 1996: Chifley (8.3 per cent), Greenway (8.4 per cent), Lindsay (9.8 per cent), Macarthur (11.0 per cent), Mitchell (9.6 per cent) and Werriwa (7.9 per cent).
• A diverse range of Queensland seats produced double digit swings: Dawson and Leichhardt in the north, Longman in northern Brisbane and the neighbouring Brisbane hinterland seats of Groom, Blair and Forde. Groom was the only survivor. Retiring sitting members were a factor in Forde and especially Leichhardt. Ryan failed to live up to the hype, with a 6.8 per cent swing that was very modest by Brisbane standards. I’d be interested to know why Longman swung so heavily.
• Labor’s two party share of the remote mobile votes from Lingiari was up from 78.7 per cent to 88.4 per cent.
• While enough to bag two seats, swings in Tasmania were relatively mild. Franklin was one of the four seats to swing to the Liberals, a testament to Harry Quick’s personal vote.
• A noteworthy outcome in Melbourne, where Greens candidate Adam Bandt will likely overcome the Liberal candidate to take second place, a first for the party at a general election. Lindsay Tanner made it academic by winning more than 50 per cent of the primary vote, but the seat will be marginal after preferences.
• Links for the “photo finishes” series of posts have been added to the sidebar. The most notable development of the past few days has been very strong performances for the Liberals on postal votes in the neighbouring seats of La Trobe and McEwen.
802 Comments
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Grog – Absolutely!
“And I’d even recommend that teachers/educators get broadband in their homes at specially reduced rates. Sort of like the educational tax benefit, but for the educators.”
They can, of course, claim it all on tax. Just about everybody with a home computer manages to claim some, if not all, of it on tax anyway.
That’s why Rudd’s education rebate is quite clever. People with home computers currently claim them on tax, but they won’t be able to do so if they claim the education rebate for the expense. It may not cost the government as much as people think…quite a smart fiscal move really.
Grog Says:
November 27th, 2007 at 8:22 pm
smeghedd, I think Rudd will first just want to make sure that any Royal Commission into AWB will get the result he wants.
What do you think he wants ?
I’m not sure he said much about desired outcomes in the election campaign and indeed much of 2007, however when we were in the thick of the scandal in 2004/2005 he was pretty aggessive in his attacks on Downer et al.
Hopefully he will pick things up from there.
497 Antonio – I guess I was being a bit cynical – I am more in your camp . I think he will first want to find out if it is worth it all. What I mean by wanting to know the result, was he would take advice on the likelihood of new evidence, convictions etc.
If he is advised that the chances of anything comming out of it a low, I would suggest he’ll drop it.
Funny cartoon of Howard and Skippy in the UK Times Online http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/cartoon/
Antonio – Good point. But I don’t know any educators who have thought about about it this way. I’ll spread the word.
William and LTEP, the whole “doesnt feel like a landslide” thing is such waffle, and sounds like Coalition sore-loser crap. But hang on, you dont support them do you???
William @ 474,
It’s not technically a landslide and in truth the Libs are only a few percent away from taking back government but in the end it just depends on your own definition of ‘landslide’. Considering they were repeatedly told they could never capture 17 seats the Labor side probably feels like it’s a landslide and considering the Libs lost much of their leadership they probably feel it as bad as a landslide. Howard was probably closest by calling it an emphatic win.
Antonio,
Yes, some don’t, but more and more do. I increased my department’s usage back in the 1990s simply by getting one put in the English staffroom.
Marko,
The content matters more than the technical means, so let us hope that teachers have some good content to work with.
I thought Rudd on the 7:30 report just then was at his most impressive since he was shadow foreign affairs. He spoke more openly than he ever did in the campaign, and whilst his inner technocrat did come out, everything he said was reasonable. I was seriously impressed with his making every Labor MP visit schools and now homeless shelters. I’m becoming more hopeful all the time.
Chris -
The Medium is the Message; it’s not easy to separate content from the technology. Particularly where the net is concerned. We’ve got to teach the teachers how the medium works before they can even get to the message.
Funnily enough you don’t need to support a political party to have an objective opinion as to what qualifies a ‘landslide’. I’m not saying it doesn’t feel like a landslide. I’m saying it’s not a landslide. Maybe next election.
Nick @ 510
I heart Rudd the Technocrat! He’s boring to tears: steady, stable, reliable and looking for results. I find it very soothing after the peripatetic talking heads of the Coalition. Who somehow always seemed off their meds…
I’d rate the election as somewhere between a comfortable win and a landslide. Despite the disparity in the number of seats, it wouldn’t be a substantial swing needed for the Coalition to regain government at the next election. But they won’t do it, unless there’s a recession.
I was interested in Rudd sucking up to the Treasury in his 7.30 Report tonight, praising their interest in “micro-economic reform” blah blah. Shades of Keating in the way Rudd talked. Labor will use “Treasury advice” whenever it suits them to renege on a spending promise or introduce something harsh. And they’ll get away with it, provided they do it early enugh in their term.
I think its a 2%2PP swing for Labor to lose in 2010 so definitely not a landslide.
The schools visit is just tokenism
David Beckham is almost getting Kevin Rudd like attention from the school kids.
Funnily enough Edward I actually think it’s good to get the members out there and doing some work in the community. Certainly a lot more effective than just throwing money at the electorates once every three years.
“Yes, some don’t, but more and more do. I increased my department’s usage back in the 1990s simply by getting one put in the English staffroom.” (re computer usage by teachers)
Yes Chris you’re right. Put the computers there and the teachers will learn to use them. But some will have to change their teaching methods. And you don’t really understand what computers can do unless you use them for pleasure as well as business (like those of us on Poll Bludger!).
Look at how the whole Irish economy revived by turning IT into a national industry. Australia, with its place in Asia and its English language skills, is ideally suited to doing the same. Computers and broadband in every home is the way to get started, and we finally have a government which at least knows in which direction to head.
ESJ – a 2% swing to the ALP in 2010, will mean you’ll need a landslidde in 2013…
Well regardless of all the votes and swings , Rudd has a clear majority from the people to goven . I was stunned to hear various Liberals saying that any attempt to repeal workchoices would be blocked in the senate . I can remember the 1970’s and the blocking of supply etc , I’ve just seen history repeated- Stanley Bruce and his attempt to ditch Industrial laws and John Howard and his attempt . The remains of the Liberal right wing travellers just don’t get it , the people have spoken so respect their wishes .
And yes I voted ALP this time and so did my wife, her wage rise this year was 50 cents a week, yes 50 cents a week under workchoices, all legal. We want it scrapped .
Perhaps we should look at the Brits and the House of Lords which I understand can’t block bills from the Commons .
I want steady government and stable government – I voted for and so did thousands of others – so let it happen
ESJ “The schools visit is just tokenism”
Better than sitting in the office photocopying fliers bagging Muslims.
Yes, I for one wont miss the hectoring, schoolmarmish, hysterical tone of nearly all the coalition policy pronouncements – particularly those on education.
Rudd’s a breath of fresh air. Boring measurement based policy, rather than faux outrage, pillars of rhetoric, and then generally hapless follow up.
ESJ @ 516. Your comments are typical of the cynicism, excuses, & lack of willingness to get involved with serious issues we’ve come to get used to in the last 11 years.
Thankfully we now have the opportunity to move on, & views like yours will no longer be relevant.
ESJ “The schools visit is just tokenism”
Nope – it’s symbolism. Something you guys should have thought more about for the past 11 years.
Postal votes favour the libs becase more elderly ppl use them
I almost cried when Rudd started talking about the homeless on the 7.30 Report. Finally, I feel like we’re getting our country back.
In the first 48 hours Rudd has focussed on two of the most marginalised and dispossessed people in our country – indigenous and homeless.
I feel very hopeful that at last we have a leader with a heart, as opposed to”ticker”.
Postal votes favour the Libs because Lib voters are scared to attend the polling booths on election day in case Muslim voters appear with suicide bombs and try to eat their babies.
School visits and Homeless shelter visits is just tokenism like ESJ said its Rudd trying to maintain his ‘fuzzy’ warm image with voters. While his new MPs are there perhaps they can report on how they’ve been let down by State ALP Governments???
Dickson and Bowman should still be Tory seats, Herbert i think is a Labor seat as is Robertson and Solomon, but Swan, Macarthur and LaTrobe and McEwen should remain Blue.
ESJ,
As always, the cynical impugning of people’s motives. It must be awfully difficult to watch others “do” when you know in your heart it should be you in charge. You haven’t done anything to deserve it, but your born to rule temprement means you must bitch.
Symbolism is important. Rudd is starting off on a very positive note.
As a Labor member i agree with ESJ it is gimmicky rubbish.
If the members have not been to a school previously, and after they have visited the school what exactly do they attend to achieve? Getting out in the community is not going to a school it is actually particapting in comminity groups or sporting clubs. Going to schools is a silly idea, pure grandstanding rubbish.
Obviously Rudd’s PR team picked up that he needs to talk about homeless people to keep his popularity…
Peter from Bonner,
The House of Lords is not elected. The Senate is, and by a more democratic method than the House. I am completely unfazed by its blocking anything because the Constitution has the remedy – a double dissolution.
As usual Labor supporters who support everything labor does. Don’t any of you have any contrary opinions. I suppose if Rudd told all the members to go to Jonestown you’d all go.
Glen @ 533. As long as he’s not Howard & not in the Coalition, his popularity will be fine for the moment.
Now I know Rudd is doing something right. We’ve got Edward and Glen from the Right attacking him and Marky attacking him from the Left. The Australian people will love him.
#516
esj
At least this “tokenism” will get much needed repairs done to those schools that were deprived of funds because of howard’s meanness towards education, hopefully all schools will benefit. At least these pollies are getting out and about and not hiding in their offices like the Libs used to.
from Mrs Gusface
Participating in sporting clubs Marky Mark? How is that of any use?
To me, visiting schools on a regular basis would be far more participatory than participating in a sports club. Quite frankly, schools don’t get enough attention and I’m please that they’re being made a priority.
Honestly, some people are so cynical it surprises me. How about we wait for them to disappoint us before starting on all this rubbish. Surely you don’t think sending MPs to visit schools is harmful.
MM, give me a break. He hasn’t even been sworn in and you think he has failed to go for the Light on the Hill.
If the Liberals block labor’ mandate than really it is doing only what Labor did to its mandate, that being block it.
Idoit Beazley was responsible for that, nonetheless if they block workchoices it will be a stupid thing for a new leader to do.
marky marky, its not a case of agreeing with everything. Its a case of supporting someone who’s willing to take a fesh approach. Given Howard has done nothing, ANY effort is welcome & applauded.
Only those willing to give something a chance will achieve anything. Sniping from the sidelines does nothing.
Marky Marky, I consider myself quite independent thinking, I fail to see how sending MPs to visit schools and report back is a negative thing.
Of course it’s not going to solve anything… but you’re seriously attacking them for it? Very constructive… perhaps they can go and kick a football and solve the world’s problems.
GG
LOL, we will see.
Coming from NSW we know all about symbolism from Labor governments. Addressing real issues costs money and a determination to tax and spend wisely to achieve results.
I dont have a problem with symbols but lets see if there is substance too or just an attempt to chase the headline.
If I had a born to rule attitude I would not be blogging GG, its a bit like teaching.
Marky Marky they would only go to Jonestown if the rate of TA was increased and a special hardship allowance was paid.
Well thanks for your “concern” Marky
I suppose it would be better for these politicans to remain removed from the problems in their constituency – who wants informed decision making. Marky Mark would probably prefer them to be visting the stock exchange.
Marky Marky & Glen: Attacking Rudd and his ministers over visiting some schools is ridiculous. You are both just whinging for the hell of it. Even if these visits were nothing more than symbolism, what possible harm is in it?
Thanks Chris Curtis
I am not an expert , just a working tax paying family man , I gather a double dissolution cost lots of money , I’ve just voted and after 3 years I’ll vote again , I don’t really want to go to another election in a year or so . Perhaps there needs to be change in the way we are governed , if I under stand this right , if a government has the control of both houses then there is no need for a double dissolution , I further understand the recent Howard government was lucky to get the senate last time . The Senate blocking bills from the elected Government is wrong
Settle down.
Let them go to schools, okay let them but surely the members know what goes on in the classroom already.
Would love to know what does he hope to achieve.
What ideas will come from it, or perhaps they had no ideas on education before the election.
It makes Rudd look stupid IMHO, why haven’t these Labor MPs gone to schools and homeless shelters and childcare places to make reports before being elected, isn’t that their job.
And paul k, if Howard had told his new MPs to go to schools and homeless shelters in 1996 you’d have said it was tokenism.
Rudd is all about appearance, looking as if he’s doing something but he’s doing nothing.
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