• I’ve variously heard it said that this election was Labor’s biggest ever win, and their biggest ever swing. I presume this is because nobody can be bothered looking past 1949, a benchmark year due to the expansion of parliament, the election of the Menzies government and the fact that the AEC’s historical two-party preferred figures don’t go back any further than this. However, John Curtin’s wartime victory of 1943 had it all over Rudd’s performance. Curtin won 66 per cent of the seats from a primary vote of 49.94 per cent, up 9.78 per cent from 1940. Rudd has won probably 58 per cent of the seats from a two-party swing currently at 6.5 per cent. I personally am not willing to call this a “slide”, be it of the land- or Rudd- variety, given the score on the primary vote is 43.95 per cent to 42.68 per cent (UPDATE: Coalition vote now 41.54 per cent). I was actually expecting the Labor vote to be slightly higher, hence my exaggerated expectations for the Greens in the Senate.
• It is a remarkable fact that there are two seats which the Liberals might gain from Labor, given that there were only four seats in the land which swung to them. The potential gains are the Perth seats of Cowan and Swan, the former of which has definitely been won while the latter is once again going down to the wire. The 2.2 per cent swing in Cowan can be readily explained by the popularity of retiring sitting member Graham Edwards, but rapid suburban expansion in the seat would also have been a factor. The swing in Swan, while only 0.2 per cent at this point of the count, is coming off a disastrous campaign from an accident-prone candidate in 2004. Other seats in Perth swung slightly to Labor. The 3.1 per cent swing that won them Hasluck was at the upper end of the range.
• Interestingly weak swings to Labor in McMillan and Gippsland, which were also areas of weakeness for Labor at last November’s state election.
• A little further to the west, swings were in the exact 5 per cent to 6 per cent range Labor was shooting at. Deakin has been won for only the second time in its history, while McEwen and La Trobe are still in doubt.
• Not hard to spot the odd seat out in South Australia: with swings elsewhere of between 4.3 per cent and 11.0 per cent, Nicole Cornes could manage only 2.0 per cent in Boothby. Makin and Wakefield swung heavily enough that they’re outside the Labor marginal zone, but not so Kingston, which produced the state’s second smallest swing at 4.3 per cent.
• The Liberal vote proved curiously resilient in the Australian Capital Territory: they were down only 3.7 per cent in the Senate, enough that Gary Humphries retains his seat, with swings of below 2 per cent in the two lower house seats.
• This election produced even less support for the “doctors’ wives” thesis than 2004. There was very little movement in inner Sydney and Melbourne, either in safe Labor or safe Liberal seats. The most notable beneficiary was Joe Hockey in North Sydney, where a harmless 4.3 per cent swing was nonetheless a relatively poor result by inner urban standards. Sophomore surges for Julie Owens in Parramatta (7.7 per cent) and Chris Bowen in Prospect (7.3 per cent).
• Outer Sydney swung as heavily this time as it famously did in 1996: Chifley (8.3 per cent), Greenway (8.4 per cent), Lindsay (9.8 per cent), Macarthur (11.0 per cent), Mitchell (9.6 per cent) and Werriwa (7.9 per cent).
• A diverse range of Queensland seats produced double digit swings: Dawson and Leichhardt in the north, Longman in northern Brisbane and the neighbouring Brisbane hinterland seats of Groom, Blair and Forde. Groom was the only survivor. Retiring sitting members were a factor in Forde and especially Leichhardt. Ryan failed to live up to the hype, with a 6.8 per cent swing that was very modest by Brisbane standards. I’d be interested to know why Longman swung so heavily.
• Labor’s two party share of the remote mobile votes from Lingiari was up from 78.7 per cent to 88.4 per cent.
• While enough to bag two seats, swings in Tasmania were relatively mild. Franklin was one of the four seats to swing to the Liberals, a testament to Harry Quick’s personal vote.
• A noteworthy outcome in Melbourne, where Greens candidate Adam Bandt will likely overcome the Liberal candidate to take second place, a first for the party at a general election. Lindsay Tanner made it academic by winning more than 50 per cent of the primary vote, but the seat will be marginal after preferences.
• Links for the “photo finishes” series of posts have been added to the sidebar. The most notable development of the past few days has been very strong performances for the Liberals on postal votes in the neighbouring seats of La Trobe and McEwen.
802 Comments
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From Crikey for all you cricket lovers.
And now the sporting news, with thanks to A Certain Contributor:
The Old PM’s XI
J Howard c McKew b Hubris 0
P Costello stpd on wkt 0
M Brough c Pantsdown b Swing 0
M Turnbull lbw Pulpmill 12
M Vaile awb Scandal 0
A Downer b Ponce 0
P Ruddock b Disgrace 0
T Abbott c Foot b Mouth 0
B Nelson b Kovko 0
K Andrews b Astard 0
C Pyne b Joke 0
Sundries 1
Total 13
The New PM’s XI
McKew c Huge b Smile 86
K Rudd c Brevity b F-cksake 07
J Gillard Not out 824
P Garrett Not out 0
D Mocracy
W Swan
S Smith
G Combet
N Roxon
M Kelly
B Brown
Sundries 14
Total 941 for 2
“Obviously Rudd’s PR team picked up that he needs to talk about homeless people to keep his popularity…”
Or, alternatively, Rudd actually does care about the homeless. I know, I know, Glen, after nearly 12 years of Howard it is hard to imagine a politician ever doing anything purely for the national interest, but believe me, sometimes politicians, and even PMs do care about their fellow human beings…
Yes, quite agree, symbolic nonsense.
Now, flagpoles and donkey posters. Those are results!
Noocat, the thing is if a Tory leader did that you you’d call it cynical so i believe im justified in calling this stunt in a long line of Rudd stunts.
He’s always in it for image that’s it.
Peter from Bonner, not necessarily if it’s bad legislation.
Scrutiny and accountability is good for a government. If Labor can’t propose legislation that is acceptable to the Senate then the Senate has a mandate to block it.
Yes, that’s right people, the Senate has it’s own mandate. In fact, any party has it’s mandate. Labor can wait until July ‘08 to pass certain legislation and I’d be extremely surprised if the Coalition blocked the Budget next year.
One of the bad things about the Government controlling the Senate is that they remove checks and balances and ways to hold the Executive to account. For instance, they stop committees from investigating into the effects legislation could have on Australians, can refuse to answer questions on notice (for instance on the impact of AWAs) can refuse to allow witnesses to give evidence at Senate hearings etc.
The previous government in fact blocked very simple inquiries, such as creating a map of Australia’s coast line and how it would be effected by different rises in sea level. You’d assume this would be of interest no matter what your belief in Climate change is.
Glen, has her majesty’s loyal opposition announced any intiatives in the last 72 hours, I seem to have misssed them?
“Rudd is all about appearance, looking as if he’s doing something but he’s doing nothing.”
So declares Glen, after only three days of the new government having been elected and not even been sworn in yet. Yep, you’re right Glen, Rudd should have implemented his policy platform by now. It is clear that he only ever talks the talk and never walks the walk.
Glen although i can’t stand your political neo con beliefs, but on this you are absolutely right.
I actually in a way don’t see a problem with the members visiting places, what i have a problem with is the grandstanding and idea that they are doing things being put out their but realistically they are doing nothing.
Oh yes you have problems at your school, we will look into it but in the end not much is done.
It was a landslide. No party in the past 60 years (at least) has come back from 16 seats down to win an election.
Glen,
How do you feel about your best ally against Rudd being the far Left? You and Marky will have lots of fun.
Thanks Lose the election – I agree
“Noocat, the thing is if a Tory leader did that you you’d call it cynical so i believe im justified in calling this stunt in a long line of Rudd stunts.”
Actually, Glen, you’re wrong about that. There are plenty of “symbolic” things that I often wished Howard had done.
HI GUYS DO YOU THINK THERE WILL BE A BY ELECTION IN HIGGINS SOON
Glen, I have just awarded you the ‘Comical Ali’ for Election 2007, you persist as though it is not all over. Get used to it mate, you LOST, save your protestation until about 2018, that’s how long your mob have got in the wilderness.
As i said previously their are number of bloggers on this blog who rarely say anything against their party allegiances. Ideas come from orginal thought and i feel as if many of you have no ideas- that goes for you to Glen.
Yes we’re having a leadership election on Thursday.
Marky the thing is these new MPs as candidates should of been doing this stuff and yet they’re doing it now as a nice media plug that’s the issue.
Last time i heard i thought Rudd had policies on education so why does he need more feedback, but then again Garrett did say they’d change it all when they got in, watch this space.
Malcolm Turnbull
Julie Bishop
The dream team is a firm favourite.
Good to hear from you again Paul K. Left supporter in disguise.
ESJ,
I reckon if you actually listen to what Rudd says and watch what he does, rather than interpret everything through your all knowing, all singing I know it all bullshit generator, then things might be sweet.
I have said before, you really are a glass half empty sort of person.
But, I suppose you will now try to change the subject.
564
Basil Fawlty – so according to you i can’t criticise the new government and if i criticise them then it means ive not got over being beaten in a landslide. Your reasoning is very poor tonight Basil.
I got over the loss on Sunday, im looking forward to Malcolm Turnbull and Julie Bishop getting to work on ACME fightback lol.
Spiros yes no party has come back but what did Labor just do.
Marky,
For Pete’s sake Rudd has only just won the election and hasn’t had time to scratch his bum yet and you are condemning him already. You think you’re so morally pure and above everyone else. You’re just a far left version of Howard. Always condemning and acting like you’re better than everyone else.
The language of politics is full of high-blown rhetoric, often using over-the-top metaphors: “down to the wire”, “cliff-hanger”, “crushing defeat”, “boil-over”, “dog-fight”, “battleground electorate”.. and so forth.
In that context, landslide seems a pretty reasonable description of what happened on Saturday. Somehow it feels better to see it that way too.
I hope Turnbull doesn’t become leader now, I think he is their best bet, but if he gets it now, he is like a ‘transitional man’ ie the guy you go out with after you leave a really long relationship, and transitional man never has a future with you, you use him to get back in the game and then move on.
ESJ. I have always had time for you even if we dont share the same view of the world. But your comment on “tokenism” by our new PM Kevin Rudd either slaps of envy or arrogance. GET A GRIP OF YOURSELF. The best ‘need to know’ comes from the front line not the ivory towers of Canberra.
William I think it is a big reach to say that Franklin was only one of four seats to swing to the Libs in the country because of the personal attraction of the previous Labor member.
Quick was a dill. The swing is more likely to have been related to the damage Quick caused by not backing the original Labor candidate and the presence of a popular Liberal candidate who had more time to campaign.
But better for the ALP if Mal is used up and spat out now! then there will be no-one left of any use or popularity with the people (Malcolm is popular with most people I find except maybe his own party lol)
Cat @ 563.
If there is, it will be after March 18, 2008 when Costello maximises his super payout.
“if Howard had told his new MPs to go to schools and homeless shelters in 1996 you’d have said it was tokenism.”
No. If Howard had done this in 2007, I’d have labelled it tokenism. If he’d done it in 1996, I’d have applauded it. But he didn’t, of course.
Funny how he suddenly discovered the need for aboriginal reconciliation just before his final election. Was this tokenism? Or perhaps his PR team decided he needed to talk about it in order to remain popular….eh Glen?
Only 37 days to go till the Iowa primary, in an election that will change the USA and the world.
http://www.electoral-vote.com
All a bit new to me all this stuff, my family are swinging voters , I voted for Rudd , I hated workchoices as I said it directly affected my family , I am very prepared to give Rudd a go – I voted for him and want to see where it goes , if he is no good well we can make that decision in 3 years time . But I agree he has just got there and a lot of water has to pass under the bridge yet , as for the Liberal team – Turnbull may be it , I understand he agrees with a republic , perhaps that needs to be re-visited is there a chance of agreement between both parties on this one ? and why not on other things too . Julie Bishop – no don’t think so there must be someone else .
Actually Glen,
There are two issues that won Howard a lot of respect from across the political divide.
1. Gun Control Laws after the Port Arthur Massacre.
2. East Timor
535 marky marky Interesting you say you are a Labor member, then you refer to Labor supporters as “you” instead of we.
Someone on radio posed a very interesting question today:
What political leader, state or federal, has been elected opposition leader after a bad defeat – and has then gone onto become prime minister or premier?
The suggestion was that it has never happened. Think Peacock, Beazley, Hayden etc
Flash… Mike Rann?
Peter from Bonner,
LTEP has put my thoughts quite well.
As for the overall Rudd Government, it’s utterly predictable. Kevin Rudd will let the Left have the symbols and the Right will run the country, and in case I haven’t already said it on this thread, Labor will win the next federal election too.
583
BOB CARR
Paul K, i was critical of the schools idea but i can’t do that?
I voice my opinions on things but i can’t do that. It is a democracy and i am thankful that in this country i can voice an opinion.
As i said last night you are entitled to your opinion, just that i dont agree. This site would not exist if it is dull and boring and everyone agreed.
The view that i think my opinion is better than everyone fine, think that way, but if i see an idea that is worth following i go with it or if i see something with my own i will be very willing to change tack.
What i see on this site is a complaceny of ideas and to much metooism, but if i suggest this i am called overly opinionated and better than everyone else. Paul K if you wish to get personal fine.
For heaven sake you need to take into account as to where Labor came from. They were over 4% behind and now are 2% ahead. That in my mind is a landslide. Under normal cerumstances you wouldn’t have expected Labor to make up that deficit.
AG01 and GG,
Fair comment, I admit to the sin of cynicism and I’d be happy to be proved wrong by the new government. In a country as wealthy as ours its a crime that people are homeless and kids do not have access to computers if the new government addresses those issues for real then more power to them.
BTW Glen, I absolutely agree with your “dream team” of Turnbull and Bishop (though I must confess, I don’t have dreams like that). They’re the best combination to get the Liberal Party going again and give Rudd a run for his money. A good Opposition is essential.
And I don’t agree with those who say Turnbull shouldn’t seek the leadership now, because he’d be unlikely to last to be Prime Minister. Costello made the mistake, several times, of not taking the leadership when he had the chance. Howard, on the other hand, grabbed it whenever he could, and sought it again when he lost it. The party eventually turned to him again, when others had tried and failed, and he was still there ready to take over. People with the intellect and talent of Turnbull can get there in the end, if they persist.
I never had much time for John Howard, but he showed the value of persistence. Like a wombat at an electric fence.
Marky Marky
WTF do you want? Your ideas will never be accepted by the vast number of voters that put the ALP in power (particularly the swinging voters). If you dont like the way the ALP will probably govern do us all a favour and p off. If the Government carried out your wishes the ALP would never be elected.
Rudd was great on 7.30 report. He is off to a flyer.
On Sky News Active, I see in the press conference he held today he was aksed “Why he drove himself to work today ?”. He replied that “he wanted to drop his son to school”.
It reminded me of Jim Soorley getting the ferry to work on his first day as Brisbane Lord mayor in 1991.
Well, I suggest we wait out the next few by-elections before we conclude on the number of seats won, and its “landsliditude” or otherwise.
Wont surprise me if Kevin07 is up a few more in a couple of months!
Thanks gg @ 551 – that’s a classic.
Been on the road all day – has there been any news or discussion about the opposition carry-on?
I see you’ve been doing a Kroger, ESJ, about the relative magnitude of the swing, but the truth is the raw percentage difference in landslide elections like the one we just had may not look like much, but the impact is totally crushing on the losers – as in a real landslide. Just look at the total disarray in the LNP.
I’m more interested in the Xmas pantomime that is the LNP transition to opposition than the Rudd ascendancy. The former might tell us more about the future equation. Interesting comments by Farry O’Barrell about the Opus Ugly Dei sect and wanting to take disciplinary measures further over the Lindsay thing. He obviously believes they’re a real threat. So does Baird who effectively said on radio yesterday that they have control in NSW and it’s too late to do anything about it. Look out other Lib state branches.
So what do we see in the leadership candidates –
1. Malcolm leading the wets – Giorgiou, Moylan and co..
2.the Monk as the opus dei champion supported by Alex Hawke, D Clarke etc.,
3. Brendon for the mere Dries, who used to be the far right but who now look like compassion itself beside the Clarkists.
What a set up for the next act of the pantomime – I think this year it will be done in togas.
Oh I see.. Thanks chaps. Mike Rann and Bob Carr. There goes that theory. But it would appear to hold true on the federal scene.
At least the ALP are actually going into the schools, the Libs just stopped and looked at the shiny new flagpole then p#ssed off
Symbolism, tokenism, whatever you call it, I think it’s a great idea. I’m going to ask Rudd to visit schools on a regular basis and not just during election campaigns.
I bet Jackie Kelly had no idea if there were homeless people in Lindsay.
Yes, I’m still here, hard to wean myself.
Flash – Robert Menzies after 1943?
Comment on Random notes by Greeensborough Growler02:23 11/27/2007, Greeensborough Growler, Comments for The Poll Bludger
Actually Glen,
There are two issues that won Howard a lot of respect from across the political divide.
1. Gun Control Laws after the Port Arthur Massacre.
2. East Timor
>/b<
hear hear
soz about the formatting…
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