• I’ve variously heard it said that this election was Labor’s biggest ever win, and their biggest ever swing. I presume this is because nobody can be bothered looking past 1949, a benchmark year due to the expansion of parliament, the election of the Menzies government and the fact that the AEC’s historical two-party preferred figures don’t go back any further than this. However, John Curtin’s wartime victory of 1943 had it all over Rudd’s performance. Curtin won 66 per cent of the seats from a primary vote of 49.94 per cent, up 9.78 per cent from 1940. Rudd has won probably 58 per cent of the seats from a two-party swing currently at 6.5 per cent. I personally am not willing to call this a “slide”, be it of the land- or Rudd- variety, given the score on the primary vote is 43.95 per cent to 42.68 per cent (UPDATE: Coalition vote now 41.54 per cent). I was actually expecting the Labor vote to be slightly higher, hence my exaggerated expectations for the Greens in the Senate.
• It is a remarkable fact that there are two seats which the Liberals might gain from Labor, given that there were only four seats in the land which swung to them. The potential gains are the Perth seats of Cowan and Swan, the former of which has definitely been won while the latter is once again going down to the wire. The 2.2 per cent swing in Cowan can be readily explained by the popularity of retiring sitting member Graham Edwards, but rapid suburban expansion in the seat would also have been a factor. The swing in Swan, while only 0.2 per cent at this point of the count, is coming off a disastrous campaign from an accident-prone candidate in 2004. Other seats in Perth swung slightly to Labor. The 3.1 per cent swing that won them Hasluck was at the upper end of the range.
• Interestingly weak swings to Labor in McMillan and Gippsland, which were also areas of weakeness for Labor at last November’s state election.
• A little further to the west, swings were in the exact 5 per cent to 6 per cent range Labor was shooting at. Deakin has been won for only the second time in its history, while McEwen and La Trobe are still in doubt.
• Not hard to spot the odd seat out in South Australia: with swings elsewhere of between 4.3 per cent and 11.0 per cent, Nicole Cornes could manage only 2.0 per cent in Boothby. Makin and Wakefield swung heavily enough that they’re outside the Labor marginal zone, but not so Kingston, which produced the state’s second smallest swing at 4.3 per cent.
• The Liberal vote proved curiously resilient in the Australian Capital Territory: they were down only 3.7 per cent in the Senate, enough that Gary Humphries retains his seat, with swings of below 2 per cent in the two lower house seats.
• This election produced even less support for the “doctors’ wives” thesis than 2004. There was very little movement in inner Sydney and Melbourne, either in safe Labor or safe Liberal seats. The most notable beneficiary was Joe Hockey in North Sydney, where a harmless 4.3 per cent swing was nonetheless a relatively poor result by inner urban standards. Sophomore surges for Julie Owens in Parramatta (7.7 per cent) and Chris Bowen in Prospect (7.3 per cent).
• Outer Sydney swung as heavily this time as it famously did in 1996: Chifley (8.3 per cent), Greenway (8.4 per cent), Lindsay (9.8 per cent), Macarthur (11.0 per cent), Mitchell (9.6 per cent) and Werriwa (7.9 per cent).
• A diverse range of Queensland seats produced double digit swings: Dawson and Leichhardt in the north, Longman in northern Brisbane and the neighbouring Brisbane hinterland seats of Groom, Blair and Forde. Groom was the only survivor. Retiring sitting members were a factor in Forde and especially Leichhardt. Ryan failed to live up to the hype, with a 6.8 per cent swing that was very modest by Brisbane standards. I’d be interested to know why Longman swung so heavily.
• Labor’s two party share of the remote mobile votes from Lingiari was up from 78.7 per cent to 88.4 per cent.
• While enough to bag two seats, swings in Tasmania were relatively mild. Franklin was one of the four seats to swing to the Liberals, a testament to Harry Quick’s personal vote.
• A noteworthy outcome in Melbourne, where Greens candidate Adam Bandt will likely overcome the Liberal candidate to take second place, a first for the party at a general election. Lindsay Tanner made it academic by winning more than 50 per cent of the primary vote, but the seat will be marginal after preferences.
• Links for the “photo finishes” series of posts have been added to the sidebar. The most notable development of the past few days has been very strong performances for the Liberals on postal votes in the neighbouring seats of La Trobe and McEwen.
802 Comments
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My ideas are not that radical, believing in G1 ownership of infrastructure and essential services, getting rid of the private health rebate scheme, and spending on rich schools and more action on climate change. And perhaps scrapping negative gearing or slowly dismantling it and scrapping the capital gains bonuses on home ownership also.
Put simply not much else.
But we cannot do these things. What is wrong with government ownership of the Commowealth Bank or Telstra.
Talkon.. My history not that strong but is the following correct? Curtin won big in 1943 and Menzies, who had been sidelined, returned to take leadership of the new Liberal Party in 1945?
If so, I suppose that example is valid, except to the extent that Menzies wasn’t exactly Opposition Leader right after the 1943 Labor win.
It’s a lot more than symbolism. They have to find out information on setting up the computer system. It is getting feedback, communicating with the schools. Which Howard did not do with his History thing, his funding for priests in schools. His flag poles. WTF. I could go on.
Marky,
You can voice any opinion you want but that’s not all that you do.
First you pretend to be an authority by over and over again saying “As a member of the Labor Party”. It doesn’t impress anyone or make you better than anyone else.
Second, you condemn people and sterotype them. Anyone who doesn’t agree with you is automatically labelled as a brain washed Capitalist. No one who disagrees with you can possibly be genuine. They must a fraud, e.g. “Left supporter in disguise”
Third, you have a holier than thou attitude. Anyone who doesn’t share your puritanical Socialist view of the Universe msut be corrupt.
You are totally up yourself. I repeat you’re just a left wing version of Howard.
After we have visited a homeless shelter what do you all think we should do to help the homeless or what do you think causes it?
Glen I wouldn’t jinx Turnbull and Bishop by calling them the “dream team”. This is what Iain Evans and Vickie Chapman were referred to in SA after the 2006 state election. They barely lasted a year as a double act before Iain Evans was blasted out by Martin Hamilton-Smith. Vickie Chapman is now practically invisible !
Flash says “What political leader, state or federal, has been elected opposition leader after a bad defeat – and has then gone onto become prime minister or premier?”
As well as Mike Rann and Bob Carr, whom others have suggested, you could also argue that John Brumby has now done it…in a rather roundabout way!
Weren’t Downer and Costello also a “dream team”?
The main threat for Turnbull will be the idoits in New South Wales Liberal Party, they perhaps can’t stand him. Along with the George Pells and Professor Flintstone.
601 marky marky They are gone, the government is far more effective in bringing in strong legislation. The old PMG has gone we are in a new era with new technology.
I notice the bitter Liberal troll in disguise is still here ranting against Rudd after three days of being voted in. Very patient of them, couldnt wait to get the bile out. Don’t worry mate, I know exactly what you are.
Marky Marky,
You haven’t mentioned business tax rates – I thought this was a central plank of your manifesto? And you haven’t responsed to my question yesterday as to what you think of France’s subsidies to farmers to let fields lie fallow (thus driving up food prices) when half the developng world is starving. Is that socialism?
Marky there are only 12 NSW Liberal MPs and however many Senators and then maybe a 1/3 are hard right they dont have the clout they did before the election trust me, and if Bishop is smart she’ll try and get numbers from the 30% of members from WA to back Turnbull.
#605 marky
Rudd said that homeless shelters he’d visited had a turn-away rate of 80 per cent or so. He said that shouldn’t happen in a society as wealthy as ours, and he would spcifically ask MPs to report back to him on the turn-away rate in their areas. This, in my opinion, is a bit more than just a token visit. Presumably he wants to fund more homeless shelters, and his election promises included an expansion of welfare housing.
Do you have a problem with this?
Marky Marky, the thing about visiting a homeless shelter is it becomes harder to avoid dealing with the problem.
Most MPs are out of touch so it’s good to give them some reminders.
I suppose you’d think it’d be a bad idea for them to visit Indigenous housing as well.
How about inter-parliamentary delegations… obviously a symbolic waste of time.
I’m really impressed by Rudd’s strategy of sending his MPs out into their electorates to gather information. It not only gives the MPs a much higher profile in their electorate, its the sort of practical, reasoned policy-making that will result in real improvements, not just shallow tokenism like Howard’s flagpoles.
Julie Bishop is about as smart as the rotting prawn heads that Hyacinth has taped under the desks in Kirribilli House.
She’ll only embarrass and ridicule what’s left of the Liberal Party further. The fact she’s being muted as a possible deputy just shows the dire straits the Liberals now find themselves in.
I can’t see the point arguing about the past , Rudd won fair and square , the ALP won a lot of seats so I gather a lot of people like myself decided Mr Howard had to go . Mr Rudd is the PM and perhaps we might see things change like the waste of money – 6 Billion I think on F 18’s that can be run down by Russian SU fighters , I saw this on 4 Corners – this also helped change my vote . I understand other money was being wasted , something had to give – and it did . We changed the Government – its only been a couple of days I look foward to the Parliament sitting. And for the record I am a former service man .
Mike Rann’s turnround in the SA ALP’s vote is quite remarkable after the ALP’s cataclysmic election defeat in 1993:
1993: 30.4% (ALP primary vote)
1997: 35.2%
2002: 36.3%
2006: 45.3%
So an increase in the primary vote of just under 15% ! Not a bad effort.
616 Steph
Yes, when KOB questioned him about this strategy, he said he wanted the MPs to all report back at the same time on particular issues, to both assist in providing information to the government, and so they could participate better in caucus discussions on these issues. Sounds bloody sensible and practical to me.
Maybe all the Labor MPs should also be sent out to inspect Howard’s flagpoles, to report back on what difference they’ve made to education standards at the schools.
On universities: I hope Labor will pursue its education agenda more deeply. In universities, there is merit in attracting high performing researchers & helping out with the training of maths & science school teachers, but what about some funding support for the system as a whole which is frankly in a parlous state. The “dog’s bodies” who have carried the burden of underfunding, ridiculous class sizes & the extra load that comes with for example foreign students should also be assisted, for it is all too often their research & the quality of debate which has suffered as a result of this shameful destruction of our universities. Some attention must also be paid to problems with standards & plagiarism which are all too often tolerated because the fees money is so desperately needed. It is pointless to improve school standards for so many career options if these issues are not addressed too. The notion that research quality is some simple thing to measure also needs to be subjected to serious scrutiny.
Again as i said you entitled to your opinion Paul K.
Will admit perhaps the Labor line is stupid.
What do you what me to say Paul K, i agree with you.
Please get over it.
But i see you as someone who has few ideas, a blogger who mostly agrees with most things by the dominant party.
But if you think i love myself fine. I look at all ideas and question them and listen and take on board all opinions and then state my view. That is what politics is about.
Marky Marky,
I don’t think your ideas are that radical in the sweep of history. I too believe in government ‘ownership of infrastructure and essential services, getting rid of the private health rebate scheme…more action on climate change’ and ‘government ownership of the Commowealth(sic) Bank [and] Telstra’ and I’m a former official of the Victorian DLP. I also believe in stronger pro-worker IR laws than we are going to get, but politics is about compromise.
I was thinking about Howards total abhorrer about resigning and had an epiphany, hell he’s just like me, I will stalk and talk quiet. By nature I’m one of those “waits in the tall grass” kind of ppl. (not saying it’s a good thing, it’s just my reality)
But when confronted with opponents that leap out of the grass, I usually react in the same way.
I knew you were coming and figured you’d strike soon, times suit you and your feeling is that I have no choice because to fight will mean I lose , and I will lose more by fighting back
I usually decide to fight even though I will lose and lose more
I just know that’s the only way YOU never win
Steph and Antonio
You are both right , it won’t hurt the federal members to get out and meet the people , our last member here in Bonner was never seen among the people . After all we are their employers
Marky Marky, I have worked as a social worker in a homeless shelter setting, and by far the major cause of homelessness today is mental illness. When people were de-institutionalised they were promptly deserted by our so called compassionate society. That is the first challenge, to seek new ways to house the mentally ill, it is possible to do so in a setting that gives them dignity and meaning, not to mention proper nutrition and care. While this society is more obsessed with ever increasing tax cuts for the already wealthy, and pandering to the sickening greedy aspirationals, then we can forget any pretensions of compassion.
617 John Ryan
Julie Bishop is about as smart as the rotting prawn heads that Hyacinth has taped under the desks in Kirribilli House.
John, I think in this case you have exaggerated her intelligence, at least the prawns were once useful
yes Basil
I agree , my Reseve Unit used to give its time to help out the homeless , it made your heart bleed , mental illness was so hard to understand seeing people of all ages with the voices . A change in the direction of the country won’t hurt at all .
I never suggested going to a homeless shelter was a terrible thing. More homeless shelters would be a good idea but not a panacea.
But do we all think causes homelessness?
Unaffordabilty of homes, rent prices, no employment, crime, drugs, alcohol disease, lack of spending on homeless services, family breakdown…
Chris yes i agree with you this is a bad thing. All systems i do agree have faults but i think capitalism has the most. No government to me is pure, everyone makes mistakes.
I am not overly happy about using government money to help farmers, especially here.
Chris B, communications is a mess, here we have a government using its money to pay a private company to provide us with a worldclass broadband network, which is ten years overdo, pathetic.
Julie Bishop is as talented if not more so than Julia Gillard you hacks just can’t get over the fact that besides being as intelligent or more so than Julia she’s also a spunk for her age.
#602 Flash
I thought about Menzies, but he doesn’t really fit the criteria. He actually formed his own party in 1945, after Curtin’s big win in 1943. And Menzies had been Prime Minister before the war.
A very good example which has just come to my mind is John Bannon. The Corcoran Labor Government lost to the Liberals, led by David Tonkin, with an 11 per cent swing, yet Bannon regained government in one term.
BTW I think the Tonkin Government, back in the 70s, was the last genuine one-term government anywhere in Australia. There was also the two-year Rob Borbidge National Party reign in Queensland, which began with a by-election rather than a full election.
Which doesn’t augur well for Malcolm Turnbull or whoever will next lead the Federal Liberals to the next election…
Not being a hack by any means , Julie Bishop as a leader no thanks
well glen, my gram’s pretty good for her age too, but she told me to let ya know that she’s taken
Glen, so being a spunk is a qualification as far as you are concerned, well come to the Gold Coast mate and I will show you about 25,000 potential liberal party leaders on any day in the streets.
Peter, she’s running for deputy not for leader.
misanthrope, that’s not cool, not cool…
Basil i didnt say that i said that she merits the position but that as she’s not half bad to look at she can better sell the party than Andrew zzzzzzzz Robb and Christopher whiner Pyne.
Marky Marky,
I’m not against capitalism. I just think it needs to be restrained.
I couldn’t care less if Julie floats Glen’s depraved boat.
She’s as dumb as two piles of dog sh-t and in no position to occupy a serious job. She’ll make Abbot look like a genius.
Basil you are spot on, recently i did Jury Service and two cases i got in court but not a member of the jury involved middle to late aged people with mental disablity problems who were accused of molesting people between the age 10 to 15 years of age, to me it is of grave concern that these people are in many cases being poorly looked after. If such cases did occur or did not their are no winners for the families of the people who may or may not have committed such and the people who such acts it may have been done.
I went home that day very disillusioned with the kind of society we have today and money we are wasting on court cases and problems to all concerned, and here we are on this arguing over middle class welfare, realistically governments today in my view have little idea.
BAsil Fawlty are you BLUEBOTTLE?
I think to be fair to Marky Marky we all seem to agree homelessness is a terrible problem related to mental illness, I think it is reasonable to expect for mine that the government demonstrates substance to go with the imagery before we wildly applaud.
As much as homelessness is a big problem, none of the State governments have fallen over themselves to raise funding either.
I sure hope we get a break from campaigning. It’s been a whole year and we hardly need more. I think Australia will thank Kevin and Malcolm if they have a long break.
Yeah Glen, I go to bed every night and dream of her in black leather and thigh boots, telling me that I have been a bad boy. Maybe you are right after all, hmmmmm
Good one Basil
I am off for the night , I enjoyed hearing the other people on the site .
But for the record – VALE Bernie Banton .
My own father died in 1995 of asbestos cancer , he was the best man I ever knew , served in WW2 in the 29/46 Australian Battalion and worked as a Carpenter after the war , he thought it was cutting in the light fittings in the fribro ceilings that got him . He was another of those unsung australians that got on with life and did the right thing .
This Asbestos thing must be stopped .
Regards everybody
Peter
Glen,
Please explain what you think the role of the Deputy Leader is. Then try and fit who would be the apprpriate candidate.
Marky Marky, fair enough, but that’s not wehat you were saying yeseterday. Yesterday, you were holding the old french socialist government up as some paragon of virtue. I’m not sure if you’ve spent any time in France or spoken to french people, but they have their own set of problems: integration of immigrants, unemployment, inflexible labour laws (The company I work for had to negotiate with unions for 2 weeks to allow my team of 12 to work on a Sunday to upgrade their IT system). It’s not the socialist heaven you hold it up to be any more than I think Kevin07-10 is the solution to all our problems. Paris has homeless people, poverty and crime too.
Mental health is the biggest health and social crisis that faces the country. It impacts all aspects of our lives. It creates poverty, crime and it destroys families.
Even the Immigration disasters of 2005, were strongly linked to our bureaucracy not being equipped to deal people who suffer from mental illness.
Peter my sentiments entirely.
Yes both the State and Federal governments have done little on services for the mentally ill and for homeless people.
I for one am not a big believer of charities, we elect governments to look after the forgotten and that to me is what they should do.
ESJ, BAsil Fawlty are you BLUEBOTTLE?
No I cannot claim that distinction.
I agree that we need substance, but that will only come after this society begins some rigorous self-examination. What should our priorities be? I personally am happy to forego tax cuts, I have all I need. I would be much happier knowing that my government was caring for those who cannot care for themselves. As far as the states go, of course they have to share the burden, hopefully now we will not have to endure the blame game we have had in recent times, Fed vs State.
Someone who can work well with the leader, someone who can compliment the leaders strengths, someone who can sell the party, someone who can help manage the party behind the scenes, someone with experience.
= Julie Bishop
Sounds like Julia G and Penny Wong to me Glen
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