• I’ve variously heard it said that this election was Labor’s biggest ever win, and their biggest ever swing. I presume this is because nobody can be bothered looking past 1949, a benchmark year due to the expansion of parliament, the election of the Menzies government and the fact that the AEC’s historical two-party preferred figures don’t go back any further than this. However, John Curtin’s wartime victory of 1943 had it all over Rudd’s performance. Curtin won 66 per cent of the seats from a primary vote of 49.94 per cent, up 9.78 per cent from 1940. Rudd has won probably 58 per cent of the seats from a two-party swing currently at 6.5 per cent. I personally am not willing to call this a “slide”, be it of the land- or Rudd- variety, given the score on the primary vote is 43.95 per cent to 42.68 per cent (UPDATE: Coalition vote now 41.54 per cent). I was actually expecting the Labor vote to be slightly higher, hence my exaggerated expectations for the Greens in the Senate.
• It is a remarkable fact that there are two seats which the Liberals might gain from Labor, given that there were only four seats in the land which swung to them. The potential gains are the Perth seats of Cowan and Swan, the former of which has definitely been won while the latter is once again going down to the wire. The 2.2 per cent swing in Cowan can be readily explained by the popularity of retiring sitting member Graham Edwards, but rapid suburban expansion in the seat would also have been a factor. The swing in Swan, while only 0.2 per cent at this point of the count, is coming off a disastrous campaign from an accident-prone candidate in 2004. Other seats in Perth swung slightly to Labor. The 3.1 per cent swing that won them Hasluck was at the upper end of the range.
• Interestingly weak swings to Labor in McMillan and Gippsland, which were also areas of weakeness for Labor at last November’s state election.
• A little further to the west, swings were in the exact 5 per cent to 6 per cent range Labor was shooting at. Deakin has been won for only the second time in its history, while McEwen and La Trobe are still in doubt.
• Not hard to spot the odd seat out in South Australia: with swings elsewhere of between 4.3 per cent and 11.0 per cent, Nicole Cornes could manage only 2.0 per cent in Boothby. Makin and Wakefield swung heavily enough that they’re outside the Labor marginal zone, but not so Kingston, which produced the state’s second smallest swing at 4.3 per cent.
• The Liberal vote proved curiously resilient in the Australian Capital Territory: they were down only 3.7 per cent in the Senate, enough that Gary Humphries retains his seat, with swings of below 2 per cent in the two lower house seats.
• This election produced even less support for the “doctors’ wives” thesis than 2004. There was very little movement in inner Sydney and Melbourne, either in safe Labor or safe Liberal seats. The most notable beneficiary was Joe Hockey in North Sydney, where a harmless 4.3 per cent swing was nonetheless a relatively poor result by inner urban standards. Sophomore surges for Julie Owens in Parramatta (7.7 per cent) and Chris Bowen in Prospect (7.3 per cent).
• Outer Sydney swung as heavily this time as it famously did in 1996: Chifley (8.3 per cent), Greenway (8.4 per cent), Lindsay (9.8 per cent), Macarthur (11.0 per cent), Mitchell (9.6 per cent) and Werriwa (7.9 per cent).
• A diverse range of Queensland seats produced double digit swings: Dawson and Leichhardt in the north, Longman in northern Brisbane and the neighbouring Brisbane hinterland seats of Groom, Blair and Forde. Groom was the only survivor. Retiring sitting members were a factor in Forde and especially Leichhardt. Ryan failed to live up to the hype, with a 6.8 per cent swing that was very modest by Brisbane standards. I’d be interested to know why Longman swung so heavily.
• Labor’s two party share of the remote mobile votes from Lingiari was up from 78.7 per cent to 88.4 per cent.
• While enough to bag two seats, swings in Tasmania were relatively mild. Franklin was one of the four seats to swing to the Liberals, a testament to Harry Quick’s personal vote.
• A noteworthy outcome in Melbourne, where Greens candidate Adam Bandt will likely overcome the Liberal candidate to take second place, a first for the party at a general election. Lindsay Tanner made it academic by winning more than 50 per cent of the primary vote, but the seat will be marginal after preferences.
• Links for the “photo finishes” series of posts have been added to the sidebar. The most notable development of the past few days has been very strong performances for the Liberals on postal votes in the neighbouring seats of La Trobe and McEwen.
802 Comments
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Yes i probably did perhaps hold it up on the pedestal, and was overly proud of socialist model, and as i said all forms of government have probs but i would much our governments spent our money on policies which help the nation, help the disadvantaged and not on helping the weathly. If the rich want to be rich than let them go out their and do better without government help.
Now i know someone is going to something about investment and globalisation, can see it coming.
I thought you were thinking of bringing back Andrew Peacock.
Or that old guy with the bushy eye brows, you know, what’s his name? Jeff Howard?
Julie Bishop is a joke and makes Dana Vale look considered and intelligent.
Dana Vale for deputy!
Or a prawn head
Mungo is a gem, great article on Howard here.
http://www.crikey.com.au/Politics/20071127-Mungo-The-dubious-legacy-of-John-Winston-Howard.html
Gerard Henderson and Peter van Onselen are on Lateline to discuss the Hward history.
Can anyone explain the AEC figures for Melbourne? The Greens (good on ‘em!) have pulled ahead of the Liberals on primaries, albeit only by two votes! However the Dems, the SEP and the independent (who is actually a Socialist Party candidate) have a much bigger vote that the Larouchites and FF. So the Liberals should clearly be eliminated before the Greens. Yet the AEC still gives a 2pp figure based on the ALP versus the Libs.
‘Yet the AEC still gives a 2pp figure based on the ALP versus the Libs.’
RB, you see these sort of glitches everytime the Greens pull ahead of a major.
Software is yet to catch up with political trends.
Peter van Onselen the one who suggested yesterday that Howard was a great economic reformer. Is he for real?
Not a mention of the previous governments efforts.
And Gerald Henderson a person who will pour cream all over his eleven years and not one word of dissent.
643 Peter from Bonner
Your father was one of many, sadly. Bernie Banton stands for all those who got on with their lives despite the fact that their health suffered because of unsafe workplaces. All the more reason to support the trade union movement, because you can’t rely on the likes of James Hardie to look after their workers.
646, 647
As well as suffering homelessness, people with psychiatric disorders are far more likely to be in prison and to be sex workers than ’sane’ members of society. More power to Rudd if MPs become better-informed about these issues.
The only politicians I ever saw when I was working with the homeless were the Libs who came to close the shelter down, to ’save costs’. Bastards.
Glen,
While I don’t disrespect your personal preference for Bishop in the forthcoming battle, the reasons you have identified would be more appropriate in an election at the local kindergarten.
There is no appreciation of the Melbourne/Sydney block that has always driven Liberalism in this country. The assertions about working in the back ground to manage the party are highly dubious. She is also ambitious for herself. What leader being put into a “pig in the poke” scenario facing the next Lib leader would want an ambitious 2IC?
I have never heard her spoken of as an intellect or a policy driven neophyte. Her debating skills are ordinary. What does she stand for? (apart from smelling nice and wanting to be considered important).
You have to admire Glen for continuing to show up after what would have been a traumatic Saturday night for him! He’s got more courage than the rest of the conservatives. What on earth happened to Steven Kaye, Nostrodamus, Isabella and Ave 07? It’s funny that the trolls haven’t been sighted on this board since November 24 LOL
Can we get some views from the Lib sore losers on how Rudd is performing so far???
To me this guy is a real high achiever. Exactly 2 days after his stunning win he is off visiting schools and unleashing his education revolution plans and hitting the media.
If this was Howard we would have had 1 week of Howard on the champagne celebrating his win and a murmur 3 weeks later from him on TV.
How about Tabitha? maybe she chucked the computer out the window.
And if anyone understands what it’s like to be homeless, it’d be Rudd – being forced to live in a car at the age of 10 has a dramatic impact on the rest of your life.
Glen = Good Conservative
Tabitha = ignorant troll bitch!
655 marky marky
Thanks for this. Mungo gets it absolutely right.
That’s right HH.
Whereas John H*ward was at his mum’s until he was 32!
Actually that is a good point Howard Hater about Rudd i like it.
Beautiful Ryan.
Now i know this will seem childish to some people but there is a game called nostrodamus – the last prophecy. I thought it was fitting somehow
http://www.nostradamus-thegame.com/
Is it wrong of me to say I’d happily have Belinda Neale lose if it meant George Colbran won Herbert? I think a small businessman and McDonalds franchise owner would make a greater contribution to parliament than a proven failure and timeserver.
HH,
Steven Kaye turned up the other night all sour and bitter and has not been seen since. Thommo wrote to the London Times to express his disappointment. But sadly not here.
The others were genuine trolls living under bridges. Apparently Rudd has sent his MPs to check on their status. What a caring sharing guy.
According to Peter O, Andrew zzzzzzzz Robb is firming as deputy for the love of god why would you elect him as deputy??????
Supposedly we got hammered by the female vote and we’re going to put in a man who can make you fall asleep in 1min, say it is not so!
I don’t think Robb has the numbers, but Peter O probably knows the inside feelings of the Party at the moment but still the NSW MPs wont back him and neither will the WA MPs thats a sizable block lost to Robb.
Colbran better win, otherwise we miss out on our V8 supercar track AGAIN!!
Peter Lindsay has had over 10 years to bring the V8’s to Townsville, and every year he has failed miserably.
Colbran might not be any better, but my guess is if Lindsay wins the V8’s won’t come here simply because he is a Liberal member.
How do time servers get preselected Howard Hater?
GG,
How has Landeryou coped with his wrong predictions?
Marky Marky
Theyll accuse you of all sorts of crimes if you dare to question.
ESJ,
Being wrong has never been an impediment to any journalist.
Good to see the big policies issues get precedence Labor Voter, please don’t tell me you voted labor because of this.
GG, Do you regard him as a journalist?
ESJ
they will put me jail if they could, crimes against speaking wrongly about Labor and Rudd and not sharing the hoop la of winning.
Marky,
Thanks ever so much for the Mungo link. One of the most insightful autopsies I’ve read this week.
Saturdsy evening, enormous relief that we did not go permanently to the dark side with Darth Howard is also the way I felt about his defeat.
Glen, I agree with you(surprisingly). Andrew Robb sends me to sleep: the man is a cure for insomnia! Is he permanently on some sort of medication?
Julie Bishop for Deputy!
I have just used Antony Green’s senate calculator on the ABC website to examine the ACT senate vote. Based on the current AEC vote tally, a further swing of just 1% against the Liberal Party would have seen the Greens candidate elected. It was a very close run thing indeed, and whilst I don’t see the political climate being favorable for a Greens win there in the next few elections, a future Greens win there at some future point seems to me to be a realistic possibility.
Greensborough Growler at 664 – what the disgusting Bishop stands for is the WA branch of the Liberal Party, which is already gearing itself up to prevent any backtracking e.g. on Workchoices. The fact that the Libs survived so much better in WA is going to give them much more power in the party. Did you see Wilson Tuckey sticking his oar in? They want to prevent the party from drifting to the centre.
So Greensborough Growler you like Landeryou or like what he writes?
Yes Marky critical thought is not welcome under New Labor, you disguised Liberal troll you!
Hard to decide who’s worse, Henderson or van Onselen—the old fogey or the young fogey.
ESJ,
It’s a Thomas the Tank engine Thing.
He thinks he is, so he is!
I have always admired Mungo because he is insightful and writes it for what it is. Pity their are not more mungo’ around today.
Has the Rodent finished cleaning out the office and shredding all the naughty documents?
I do want your right hand shaking my left Edward.
whoops i left out the not.
Glen, I share your disdain for Andrew Robb. I just don’t see what anyone sees in him. Do they honestly think he has a chance of connecting with ordinary Australians? Seriously… some of these people contesting… Abbot?! Pyne?! Robb?!
When you look at that… suddenly Danna Vale doesn’t sound so kooky after all.
I hope Marise Payne makes it to the Opposition front bench… she’s been wasted for years.
Marky,
I have posted previously about Landeryou as follows.
I find his blog a cross between The New Yorker , Mad Magazine and the old style pamphleteers. The delicious thing is you never quite know which style is playing on any particular day.
He is quite passionate about the causes he supports and scathing of lefties, political correctness and the Greens. I agree his proximity to the truth, at times, is sometimes mediocre (but no worse than the Australian).
He has also broken some good stories and usually has had excellent insights into the Right wing machinations of the ALP.
His personal style is “robust” and has clearly upset many people with his loving caring and sharing attitude. If you judge a man by the qualities of the enemies he makes, then he is very successful.
There are a number of anti-Landeryou sites in operation that spend an inordinate amount of time providing character references, grooming advice and blowing raspberries. For someone so unimportant, he keeps an army of antagonists very, very busy.
My advice is to visit his site, familiarise yourself with his style, pick the bits you like and leave the rest behind.
No doubt others will disagree with this assessment.
Charisma Turnbull and Dull Robb a perfect team.
Jenny @ 687 –
Any thoughts on who do you see Bishop aligning with then of the 3 leadership hopefuls – obviously not Turnbull – but would Bishp/WA go with the Monk or is Brendan far enough right for them?
685
Howard Hater – Robb is as boring as Wayne Swan, though Robb im sure would do a good job of organising the party behind the scenes and with fund raising we need renewal not another 56 year old who’ll be 59 by 2010, Julie Bishop will be by 2010 54 and Pyne will be 43 (though he’s not leadership material IMHO).
The Libs are going to change alot, we’ve won the battle of ideas with Labor but we’re out on our asses because Unca Howie by all accounts outstayed his welcome. It’s going to be tough because not alot separates the major parties now, Unfair dismissals and the War in Iraq is about it as far as i can see and a few things in health and education by they are minor.
Hendo likes my dream team but Peter O reckons Julie will lose to Robb my response = zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.
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