• I’ve variously heard it said that this election was Labor’s biggest ever win, and their biggest ever swing. I presume this is because nobody can be bothered looking past 1949, a benchmark year due to the expansion of parliament, the election of the Menzies government and the fact that the AEC’s historical two-party preferred figures don’t go back any further than this. However, John Curtin’s wartime victory of 1943 had it all over Rudd’s performance. Curtin won 66 per cent of the seats from a primary vote of 49.94 per cent, up 9.78 per cent from 1940. Rudd has won probably 58 per cent of the seats from a two-party swing currently at 6.5 per cent. I personally am not willing to call this a “slide”, be it of the land- or Rudd- variety, given the score on the primary vote is 43.95 per cent to 42.68 per cent (UPDATE: Coalition vote now 41.54 per cent). I was actually expecting the Labor vote to be slightly higher, hence my exaggerated expectations for the Greens in the Senate.
• It is a remarkable fact that there are two seats which the Liberals might gain from Labor, given that there were only four seats in the land which swung to them. The potential gains are the Perth seats of Cowan and Swan, the former of which has definitely been won while the latter is once again going down to the wire. The 2.2 per cent swing in Cowan can be readily explained by the popularity of retiring sitting member Graham Edwards, but rapid suburban expansion in the seat would also have been a factor. The swing in Swan, while only 0.2 per cent at this point of the count, is coming off a disastrous campaign from an accident-prone candidate in 2004. Other seats in Perth swung slightly to Labor. The 3.1 per cent swing that won them Hasluck was at the upper end of the range.
• Interestingly weak swings to Labor in McMillan and Gippsland, which were also areas of weakeness for Labor at last November’s state election.
• A little further to the west, swings were in the exact 5 per cent to 6 per cent range Labor was shooting at. Deakin has been won for only the second time in its history, while McEwen and La Trobe are still in doubt.
• Not hard to spot the odd seat out in South Australia: with swings elsewhere of between 4.3 per cent and 11.0 per cent, Nicole Cornes could manage only 2.0 per cent in Boothby. Makin and Wakefield swung heavily enough that they’re outside the Labor marginal zone, but not so Kingston, which produced the state’s second smallest swing at 4.3 per cent.
• The Liberal vote proved curiously resilient in the Australian Capital Territory: they were down only 3.7 per cent in the Senate, enough that Gary Humphries retains his seat, with swings of below 2 per cent in the two lower house seats.
• This election produced even less support for the “doctors’ wives” thesis than 2004. There was very little movement in inner Sydney and Melbourne, either in safe Labor or safe Liberal seats. The most notable beneficiary was Joe Hockey in North Sydney, where a harmless 4.3 per cent swing was nonetheless a relatively poor result by inner urban standards. Sophomore surges for Julie Owens in Parramatta (7.7 per cent) and Chris Bowen in Prospect (7.3 per cent).
• Outer Sydney swung as heavily this time as it famously did in 1996: Chifley (8.3 per cent), Greenway (8.4 per cent), Lindsay (9.8 per cent), Macarthur (11.0 per cent), Mitchell (9.6 per cent) and Werriwa (7.9 per cent).
• A diverse range of Queensland seats produced double digit swings: Dawson and Leichhardt in the north, Longman in northern Brisbane and the neighbouring Brisbane hinterland seats of Groom, Blair and Forde. Groom was the only survivor. Retiring sitting members were a factor in Forde and especially Leichhardt. Ryan failed to live up to the hype, with a 6.8 per cent swing that was very modest by Brisbane standards. I’d be interested to know why Longman swung so heavily.
• Labor’s two party share of the remote mobile votes from Lingiari was up from 78.7 per cent to 88.4 per cent.
• While enough to bag two seats, swings in Tasmania were relatively mild. Franklin was one of the four seats to swing to the Liberals, a testament to Harry Quick’s personal vote.
• A noteworthy outcome in Melbourne, where Greens candidate Adam Bandt will likely overcome the Liberal candidate to take second place, a first for the party at a general election. Lindsay Tanner made it academic by winning more than 50 per cent of the primary vote, but the seat will be marginal after preferences.
• Links for the “photo finishes” series of posts have been added to the sidebar. The most notable development of the past few days has been very strong performances for the Liberals on postal votes in the neighbouring seats of La Trobe and McEwen.
802 Comments
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Spot on Greensborough, just to trying to ascertain if you have links to him or are friends.
GG I am optimistic about a Labor win in 2010, does that shock you?
Hey, I think Robb deserves a go because of the strong action he took to deal with the Lindsay racists. On Lateline the next night, he said he didn’t know who the 3 expelled from the Party were.
“But, didn’t you ask?” barked Tony.
“No”, replied Robb.
GG your not Landeryou are you?
John Ryan-re mental health. couldn’t agree more! High percentage of homeless and prisoners have mental illness and instead of being confined in hospitals where they are treated, medication supervised and are protected while vulnerable we now lock them up in prisons and can be incarcerated indefinitely. Plus they have the added burden of a criminal record. The whole process needs to be reviewed urgently and compared to best practice overseas.
Rud is a going to be a great PM. Turnbull and Bishop are the only options for the libs. They need fresh ideas and new leadership (and to be beaten around the head by bad polls for 10 years) if they ever want to be competitive.
I think they should play the right bower (500 terms) and not the red 4 (abbot) or the 9 (nelson).
Since you claim the right to slander other people from behind your coward’s castle of pseudonymity, Edward, you can’t expect other people to identify themselves at your behest.
ESJ,
Me = Landeryou. No!
Labor winning the next election (not necessarily 2010) bank it!
Adam,
I’m done with trading insults with you.
I am trying to be a better person and not do it anymore.
It’s a pity that the Steven Kaye and Tabbys have disappeared. I had saved several of their more hilarious posts to ask them about after the fact. Thay are prolly busy shredding and/or packing up offices now.
Pancho,
Please eke them out anyway.
Rudd looks great as PM. At long last, someone who really does want to have a go. I can’t say how relieved and happy I am.
I’ll believe it when I see it.
Gee Hyacinth better get use to going with Jho on his morning walks once he loses his security entourage because the way he has forgotten things lately there’s every chance he wont find his way back.
A lot of you are missing the point.
Visiting a homeless shelter, a school, an indigeneous community, whatever is not going to fix the problem. But it will raise an awareness in the minds of the people who are about to take over the leadership of this country.
Human beings ( and politicians mostly are made up of these,with the possible exception of Philip Ruddock) are impacted upon by their personal experiences. This then informs the decisions they make.
It may appear to be tokenism, but in fact it is about gaining first hand knowledge of a world that they are otherwise sheltered from.
It is how effective policy should be generated.
Ok – they’re in a word doc not with me. I’ll hit you with some non-sequiturs tomorrow.
Go easy on me Pancho, i did watch ‘Downfall’ yesterday as i promised last week.
Viewing the data on the Landeryou Election Map The greens are within 30 votes of out polling the Liberal Primary. If I was a Green I would not get my hopes up and I do not think Tanner will lose any sleep. The drift away from the minor parties would not see an upset. Besides I guess it might be seen as some sort of Victory to force a change in the expected TCP. (lol) But in reality we will never know as Tanner looks like wining on primary alone. Now 14 seats within 1%. As the count progresses we need to move the barrier of doubt to less then 0.5%
Jen,
Pure and simple, you are right!
Pancho at 710,
I asked Stephen K why those 6 liberal-voting teachers weren’t enought to swing Qld to Howard and suggested he should have attended more BBQs, but he didn’t answer yesterday.
Been out, tonight.
Maggie Beer, Meet the Author. In the electorate of Boothby.
Great speaker, Maggie. Passionate, personable, human. Spoke of water, food, fresh, grow your own, teach the kids.
Maggie spoke of Stephanie Alexander’s great school kitchen gardens project, and especially of ALP policy, in this regard.
Refreshing myself on this, it is:
‘Federal Labor tackles childhood obesity by bringing the kitchen to the classroom
Media Release 20th August 2007
A Rudd Labor Government will provide $12.8m over four years to fund a Kitchen Garden Pilot Program in 190 primary schools across Australia.
Based on the successful Stephanie Alexander Kitchen Garden Program in Victoria, the program tackles the rising trend of childhood obesity by giving children hands on experience in healthy eating.
The program teaches children in years 3 to 6 how to grow, harvest and cook produce as part of the school curriculum.
By introducing children to the pleasures of growing and preparing fresh food and sitting around a table to share a meal, the Kitchen Garden Program provides an opportunity to develop positive behaviour in children’s early years.
This curriculum-based health initiative gets children interested in healthy eating, not because it’s “healthy” but because it is fun and the food tastes great.
A Rudd Labor Government will:
Fund the Stephanie Alexander Kitchen Garden Foundation to establish the Kitchen Garden Pilot Program, train teachers and staff and oversee the administration of the program.
Establish an infrastructure fund to provide grants of up to $60,000 to 190 schools to fit out kitchen and garden facilities’.
Etc.
Huge round of applause.
Suggested to the organiser that Maggie may consider candidature in Boothby, next time round.
Thanks GG
it’s why I really think we voted Howard out –
People do actually give a toss after all.
Night.
Do we have any further intelligence on the subject of Tuckey losing O’Connor to the Nats?
Go jen! Not in a catching up mood, but can I throw in from here that these charges of ‘tokenism’ are also what we referred to, about 12 years ago, as ‘leadership’ or ’symbolism’. You know, the kind of semiotic politics that made people hopeful and future minded before we mortally feared ricketty boats and INTEREST RATES! I am grateful they’re coming back like a charging Joe McDonald.
Liberals and leadership spills. Can’t organise a root in a brothel with a fist full of fifties.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/27/2103066.htm
Glen@717 – you were tough but fair. Hoping against hope in the same way I was in the leadup to the Latham debacle. No gripes against you here. Some of your pals on the other hand…
Where are these Libs meeting in a telephone booth?
#727
Two man tent
Actually how about a two man canoe going over a waterfall?
I agree with various posters here who were impressed with Rudd’s effort on 7:30 report.
A PM talking of measurable targets, accountability and transparency – how fresh the air smells.
I did notice what may well be Rudd’s template for picking away at Howard’s middle class welfare.
Step 1: Define a target (in this case a PC for every student above year 9)
Step 2: Measure the current state
Most private schools – shed load of PCs.
Most govt schools – golly not that many PC’s
Step 3: Determine how to reach the target – Direct more funding to Govt schools
In the campaign, this approach would have been open for attack. It is much harder for a well fed right winger in opposition to challenge. Particularly if they are trying to shake the “mean” and “greedy” tags.
Does anyone know when the polls on the Senate will be finally decided- when will they be declared. Is it possible it may be next year?
Albert F – I agree. He can’t be seen to be making any overt ideological moves, and nor does he want to – he’s too politically astute. Neither can he make cuts to things that a lot of the party would find disagreeable, like the private health rebate of the school funding formula. I envisage incremental creeping generally, along the lines of greater funding to public works, while current private subsidies are kept in place.
Crikey Whitey #721 Stephanie Alexander is actually the niece of Wilfred Burchett. Given Margaret Fulton’s recent revelation that she used to be in the Communist Party and Stefano Di Piero’s well known left-wing affilliations I’m not at all surprised that Maggie Beer is on the side of the angels.
Crikey Whitey #721 Stephanie Alexander is actually the niece of Wilfred Burchett. Given Margaret Fulton’s recent revelation that she used to be in the Communist Party and Stefano Di Piero’s well known left-wing affilliations I’m not at all surprised that Maggie Beer is on the side of the angels.
Pancho,
“Politically astute” is spot on. I suspect we (and the liberals) are just finding out how astute.
I’m reminded of Tony Blair who during his first campaign was dubbed “Tony Blur” because he appeared to stand for nothing and spoke in cliches.
Once in power his message and methods become more focused – much to the the detriment of the conservative party.
If Tony is any guide the Liberals need only wait ten years before the Rudd effect wears thin.
If Blair hadn’t allowed himself to be conned by Bush into the Iraq War he’d still be PM today. The Tories never laid a glove on him, it was the Bush connection that brought him down. Rudd won’t make that mistake.
Food for thought, thanks to you, among others, who take the time to seriously observe.
It is important. Very.
Did not see the 7.30 Report. Heart lifted even more at posts commenting on Kevin’s words.
Among others, not least.
377 gough
435 El Nino
437 paladin
443 Grog
467 Antonio
474 William Bowe
521 Peter from Bonner
523 Lefty E
So far.
Great, Robert Bollard.
Great, Robert Bollard.
xxx
Just thought I’d resurrect this Article from Janet Albrechtsen in early 2006:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,18471186-601,00.html
Her response to speculation about Gillard becoming leader of the opposition at that time:
“Gillard is single and childless, has the Mark Latham albatross hanging around her neck and has been a strident critic of the US alliance. Add the scary robot voice and you have more than certain defeat at any foreseeable future election: you may well have the recipe for the collapse of Labor as the natural alternative to the Coalition at federal level.”
Well Janet, she’s now the deputy PM-elect of this nation. And I can only forsee the Coalition possibly collapsing as the natural alternative to the ALP at federal level! How rapidly things change.
The pre-polls are having a dramatic effect on Rudd’s majority. Seats with ALP TPP greater than 50% are down from 89 at the close of counting on Saturday, to 84 at the close of counting on Tuesday. That’s a cut of 10 in the majority. Postals and Absents could send it back the other way though.
Sinic
I look at the ‘oz’ online for “George Mega” and occasionally Paul Kelly
I ignore their ‘news’ and all other bloggers like Janet , heridan , , Shanahan etc as they so right wing
Adam,
Certainly Blair following Bush into Iraq drained much of his political capital (as it has for Bush, Howard, the spanish guy etc etc). I think the good ship Rudd will, over the years, collect some barnicles and slow down – but I’m very optimistic, excited even, that we have at least two good terms of government ahead of us. We might even see our first female PM after that.
Albrechtsen has said some stupid things in the past. I remember an article earlier this year where she was trying to suggest that generation Y are “young-fogies” who adore John Howard. But ever since then, polls have shown that the biggest anti-Howard vote has been amongst the 18-24 year old group.
Albrechtsen lives in an extreme-right wing fantasy world where everything that happens points to the end of Labor and the rise and rise of Howard and conservatism. She must be in serious psychological conflict now that the Liberals are out of government everywhere and her hero, Howard, has even lost his seat. Somehow, though, I don’t think there will be a reality check for her. She will happily continue to live in her parallel universe, perhaps coming out long enough to talk up the prospects of a resurrection-style return of Howard. If The Australian cuts her lose, then she is one journalist that I will not miss. She is irrelevant in the age of Rudd.
740
Geoff Lambert Says:
November 28th, 2007 at 12:35 am
The pre-polls are having a dramatic effect on Rudd’s majority
I kept the aec 2 PP totals at midnight Sat nite compared to 2 PP midnight tonight
- there have been 248,745 2PP votes allocated since with the Liberals getting
2PP 139015 of them being 55.89% !
But I have not calculated which seats the 248,730 was counted in
However the Labor @PP has dropped 1/4 % on 2PP in 48 hours
from 53.41% 2PP to 53.19% 2PP
Albert F yeah, Julie Bishop could make a fine first female PM.
if Julie did not have a skirt , glen would not be interested
probably would go for Dolly Downer
740 Geoff Lambert
That’s pretty scary.
I was chatting at the booth with someone (Labor) who had worked on the pre polling in Aged Care Homes.
As a sample of Hmm.
Without suggesting that first in best dressed, may influence the voter, I was left with a distinctly uneasy feeling.
Not that he had influenced the voter, but the ease of it.
My dear old late Mum, a Labor voter all her life, a Howard Hater, but in a nursing home, suffering a degree of dementia, said to me prior to the last election, when trying to discuss with her current events, that John Howard was a good bloke.
I resisted the impulse.
Rudd was back to his old cliches and phraseology on the 7.30 report. A totally unremarkable performance. Dry and daft.
Ah, I shall miss the days of the comedy half-hours between Kerry and Howard/Costello.
Ha even Ron the ‘red’ likes Julie
lol Ron cracks me up and enough of the gay jokes they only reflect on you lol!
Glen, we might have to wait on that one. My suspicion is that Bishop won’t hold up without all the accoutrements of government backing her up. But if she makes deputy we’ll start to find out.
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