• I’ve variously heard it said that this election was Labor’s biggest ever win, and their biggest ever swing. I presume this is because nobody can be bothered looking past 1949, a benchmark year due to the expansion of parliament, the election of the Menzies government and the fact that the AEC’s historical two-party preferred figures don’t go back any further than this. However, John Curtin’s wartime victory of 1943 had it all over Rudd’s performance. Curtin won 66 per cent of the seats from a primary vote of 49.94 per cent, up 9.78 per cent from 1940. Rudd has won probably 58 per cent of the seats from a two-party swing currently at 6.5 per cent. I personally am not willing to call this a “slide”, be it of the land- or Rudd- variety, given the score on the primary vote is 43.95 per cent to 42.68 per cent (UPDATE: Coalition vote now 41.54 per cent). I was actually expecting the Labor vote to be slightly higher, hence my exaggerated expectations for the Greens in the Senate.
• It is a remarkable fact that there are two seats which the Liberals might gain from Labor, given that there were only four seats in the land which swung to them. The potential gains are the Perth seats of Cowan and Swan, the former of which has definitely been won while the latter is once again going down to the wire. The 2.2 per cent swing in Cowan can be readily explained by the popularity of retiring sitting member Graham Edwards, but rapid suburban expansion in the seat would also have been a factor. The swing in Swan, while only 0.2 per cent at this point of the count, is coming off a disastrous campaign from an accident-prone candidate in 2004. Other seats in Perth swung slightly to Labor. The 3.1 per cent swing that won them Hasluck was at the upper end of the range.
• Interestingly weak swings to Labor in McMillan and Gippsland, which were also areas of weakeness for Labor at last November’s state election.
• A little further to the west, swings were in the exact 5 per cent to 6 per cent range Labor was shooting at. Deakin has been won for only the second time in its history, while McEwen and La Trobe are still in doubt.
• Not hard to spot the odd seat out in South Australia: with swings elsewhere of between 4.3 per cent and 11.0 per cent, Nicole Cornes could manage only 2.0 per cent in Boothby. Makin and Wakefield swung heavily enough that they’re outside the Labor marginal zone, but not so Kingston, which produced the state’s second smallest swing at 4.3 per cent.
• The Liberal vote proved curiously resilient in the Australian Capital Territory: they were down only 3.7 per cent in the Senate, enough that Gary Humphries retains his seat, with swings of below 2 per cent in the two lower house seats.
• This election produced even less support for the “doctors’ wives” thesis than 2004. There was very little movement in inner Sydney and Melbourne, either in safe Labor or safe Liberal seats. The most notable beneficiary was Joe Hockey in North Sydney, where a harmless 4.3 per cent swing was nonetheless a relatively poor result by inner urban standards. Sophomore surges for Julie Owens in Parramatta (7.7 per cent) and Chris Bowen in Prospect (7.3 per cent).
• Outer Sydney swung as heavily this time as it famously did in 1996: Chifley (8.3 per cent), Greenway (8.4 per cent), Lindsay (9.8 per cent), Macarthur (11.0 per cent), Mitchell (9.6 per cent) and Werriwa (7.9 per cent).
• A diverse range of Queensland seats produced double digit swings: Dawson and Leichhardt in the north, Longman in northern Brisbane and the neighbouring Brisbane hinterland seats of Groom, Blair and Forde. Groom was the only survivor. Retiring sitting members were a factor in Forde and especially Leichhardt. Ryan failed to live up to the hype, with a 6.8 per cent swing that was very modest by Brisbane standards. I’d be interested to know why Longman swung so heavily.
• Labor’s two party share of the remote mobile votes from Lingiari was up from 78.7 per cent to 88.4 per cent.
• While enough to bag two seats, swings in Tasmania were relatively mild. Franklin was one of the four seats to swing to the Liberals, a testament to Harry Quick’s personal vote.
• A noteworthy outcome in Melbourne, where Greens candidate Adam Bandt will likely overcome the Liberal candidate to take second place, a first for the party at a general election. Lindsay Tanner made it academic by winning more than 50 per cent of the primary vote, but the seat will be marginal after preferences.
• Links for the “photo finishes” series of posts have been added to the sidebar. The most notable development of the past few days has been very strong performances for the Liberals on postal votes in the neighbouring seats of La Trobe and McEwen.
802 Comments
Pages: « 1 … 3 4 [5] 6 7 … 17 » Show All
Im a bit annoyed that nothing ever changes on the AEC senate tally for VIC.
Also, as noted above: AEC has coalition primary at 41.8, not 42.6.
Has PB got more advanced figures? Or does the post above need correction?
Or am I bananas?
Neilbris…
No, they shouldn’t hide it but they should be careful to sell it in the right way. I’m sure you understand the dangers of callously pushing a progressive platform. I’m also sure you know what will happen if they don’t sell it properly, the Liberals would be back in again.
Remember Howard campaigned by saying Keating governed for minority interests and the elites, while he stood ‘for all of us’. This is the danger a party opens themselves up to if they’re seen to be pushing the agenda’s of particular groups (eg. refugees, same sex couples). It’s also why Labor tends to push their more socially progressive policies at the beginning of terms, so they’re forgotten by the time the next election rolls around.
William,
Don’t know if anyone else has asked it, but will we soon get an additional picture (one of Rudd) at the top of the home page?
Are the CDP (3% of primaries) in O’Connor preferencing the Libs or the Nats?
If they preference the Libs, it’s all over. If they preference the Nats, then the Nats should get over the top of Labor if the Greens prefs split 50/50…
Ron Brown (169) As someone who has been a Divisional Returning Officer with the Australain Electoral Commission I can provide the following information:
1. There IS a recount of all booth figures back at the office, usually commencing on the Monday following polling day.
2. Pre-poll votes come in two types – those issued in the home Division and those issued in other Divisions or overseas.
3. Most of the pre-polls issued in the home Division are opened and counted on the Sunday after polling day.
4. About the middle of the week after polling day, there is an exchange between Divisions of all the absent votes, together with the postals and pre-polls which were not issued in the home Divisions. This is a massive operation to co-ordinate and involves sending everything to a central location where it is all re-sorted and sent on to the appropriate Divisions. The home Divisions usually receive this material for processing on the Thursday.
5. Absent, postal and pre-poll votes are all in envelopes and before the envelopes are opened there has to be a check of all the signatures and then the names have to be marked off the roll. For those names not found on the roll (quite a lot) a full investigation of the eligibility of the voters has to be carried out, before each vote is either accepted or discarded.
6. There is also another smaller category of votes in envelopes, called unenrolled, or provisional vores. These are issued by the home Division’s poling booths to electors whose names cannot be found on the roll. All of these votes have to be checked back at the office for eligibility. This eligibility check is usually done on the Sunday and Monday after polling day It takes a lot of time and the votes are usually added to the count early in the week.
7. Regarding the overall numbers of postals, pre-polls and absents, these have been increasing massively over the past few elections. The involvement of the parties now in sending out masses of postal vote applications (once unheard of) has been a big factor in this.
8. Ron questions whether the 22% of votes yet to be counted can be accounted for in terms of the above mentioned types of votes and the answer is an unqualified – YES. It is a pains taking and often frustrating process for all concerned and it cannot be rushed.
Sorry this has been so long but thought it might help for those interested. Feel free to ask any questions.
Libs to vote for leader on Thursday
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22822535-5013650,00.html
7:30 Report and Lateline will probably have the leading contenders on tonight.
#206
That should get them killer ratings
Still more interesting than Kev answering his own questions RW.
Glen,
You’ve got at least 3 years of Kev answering his own questions. So you better get used to it…
That is one thing i wont get used to and neither will ya’ll lol.
#206
Looks like I’ll get a few tasks done and an early night this evening.
LAMING, Andrew Liberal 35,864 50.02%
83.35% counted Lamington is ahead hussar!
Btw, Maxine looks set for the back bench…
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22830039-5001021,00.html
Swan – Labor ahead by 16 votes 78.53% counted, the tories are doing well on postals
Well we got close in Kalgoorlie. Even won Cable Beach for the first time. Next time, as we St.Kilda supporters are wont to say.
‘Labor View from Broome’
205
Darn Says:
November 27th, 2007 at 2:25 pm
thanks mate for the inside aec info
We now know that due to the increase in postal & prepolls (plus absentees) that 22% is a feasible figure for this group
Heaven help us if we ever have a real cliff hanger
Glen,
Labor is expected to do better on postals (good enough to win the seat) in Bowman.
See the Bowman thread for details.
“The former foreign affairs minister, Alexander Downer, that old flirt, showed a tantalising flash of leg yesterday but eventually threw in the towel on the 7.30 Report last night.
His comments during the day were laced with the trademark Downer graciousness and tact.
“You can imagine, after I’ve been the Opposition leader once before and I’ve been the foreign minister for so long, I don’t sort of leap out of bed in the morning thinking I’d love to be the Opposition leader now. I find it a bit hard to get enthusiastic about it.”
Well, when you put it like that.
It’s kind of hard to imagine where he’s going to find post-political work with an attitude like that. Can you picture it?
“Mr Downer, thank you for applying for the position of chief executive. The board is pleased you could be here for this interview.”
“Yeah, well, you know. I’ve been the foreign affairs minister for 11½ years, so as you can probably imagine, the prospect of running your two-bit investment bank is not exactly a big thrill or anything.”
Luckily, as Tony “People Skills” Abbott reminded us on grainy video footage during the campaign, there are plenty of jobs out there, so I guess even chronic recalcitrants are in with a fighting chance.”
Annabel Crabb
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/nothing-makes-sense-in-this-new-world-disorder/2007/11/26/1196036812250.html
Well the Tories look set to win most of those undecideds thankgod!
Anyway we’ll see who comes out ontop soon, they’re obviously doing counting today.
For John Howard to beat Maxine McKew in Bennelong he will need to receive roughly 67.37% of postals and pre-polls.
Either Andrew Robb or Christopher Pyne would be perfect deputy Liberal leaders – neither of them have any chance of becoming leader.
Not going to happen, he is currently getting about 52%
Thanks Darn, excellent info well presented.
As for McKew, I think she needs some hardening in the ways of the big house, but will undoubtedly be a great asset to the government.
219
Glen Says:
November 27th, 2007 at 2:38 pm
Well the Tories look set to win most of those undecideds thank god!
So you are reduced to this as ” a win ”
after not only losing the election but also having your 2 hero’s leave in humiliation
Well i dont think they were humiliated by i guess your trots friends have told u they were but a seat is a seat and we need as many as possible no duh!
Glen at 212, It’s not Laming, it’s Leming. Those little creatures that follow the leader to oblivion. It sounds like the perfect new name for the Liberal party.
Vote 1 for the Lemmings!!
Oh and the Gnats- pesky little bugs
Did anyone mention that the Qld Libs have a leadership spill?
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Queensland-Liberals-seek-new-leader/2007/11/27/1196036868097.html
LETP, I don’t think even Glen would claim Howard will hold it now.
For Liberals Bennelong is the lost seat that none dare speak its name. After all, with an average income of just $1510 per week, or 1.4 times the national average (from the Australian) it is such a marginal seat. LOL
Ron, well said,
A good guide is to look at the Fraser/Howard years. Fraser is seen as fine human being but the government dithered about key reforms and wasted their time in office. It took Hawke and Keating to push things forward.
Howard’s reform of the tax base is his only lasting positive reform (maybe gun reform as well). Getting a broad-based revenue base is rather important to underpin an effective govt – but heck, no-one is going to get teary remembering it.
Howard’s corrosive effect on all our public institutions and his shameless demonising of minorities and the vulnerable is how many if not most will remember him.
Howard losing his seat, as Keating put it, is the exclamation point at the end.
Guys the Labor Party historically does not win with postals (no history on pre polls)
Sat night the 2PP was 6.03%
but even with the trickle of votes counted Sunday , Monday and today
I have watched it DROP by 0.01% EVENLY TIMEWISE ever since…now 5.97%
When the remaining 22% uncounted IS counted I expect 2PP will be 52.75% approx
ie I would NOT expect to win any of the 7 doubtful seats (6 LCP and 1 ALP)
still gives Labor 83 seats…would you have taken 83 Sat morning ? …I would have
LETP@202 Yes I do understand the need for wisdom in selling the message. Yes Howard did accuse Keating of pandering to sectional interests. Then he became PM and pandered to his own sectional interests while victimising the sectional interests of Keating. In the end I’m more interested in the work that is done than the words that are said. Labor is not conservative (though I suspect it will be more economically conservative than Howard) and Australia doen’t need it to be. Like Hawke in 83 Rudd inherits a deeply divided Australia. The task is to heal the wounds and bring the nation together to progress the future.
correction 53.75 2PP not 52.75 2PP
Actually, Ron, the ALP looks pretty good in Solomon and Robertson, even as the postals progress.
Which gets us pretty close to the 85 I punted on!! (and many others, for that matter)
LTEP
Then prepolls for bennelong have alreadybeen counted
Ron – 78% count is showing 53.24 and dropping: http://vtr.aec.gov.au/
forget earlier figures – swing back to 5.98%
Sat nite Labor 2 PP was 53.41%
now its 53.24%
due to postals expect 53.00% 2PP AFTER remaining 22% uncounted is counted
meaning do not expect to win any of the 7 doubtfuls
Colbran getting 58.54% of postals in Herbert.
ALP still ahead in Dickson (Qld) by around 450 votes
Off topic question: how do Australians living overseas vote in HoR? What electorate etc?
Dutton behind by 238 votes he’s closing the gap….
And then when do these numbers come in?
Was Howard a racist? A look at his record makes it hard to claim otherwise. As Keating said in the Herald this week, and Phillip Adams reiterated in today’s Australian, nothing will protect Howard from claims of racism. It is what he always was – an old white supremacist – and he deserves to carry that tag as the defining characteristic of his repugnant legacy.
Did anyone mention that the Qld Libs have a leadership spill?
They can hold their meeting in a Tarago!!
Its not a spill, its a drip.
Cut the rush! Found my own answer about where but anyone on when and whether overseas voters are significant?
“Persons with no fixed address must enrol in the Division in which they were last entitled to enrolment. If they have not previously been entitled to enrolment they can enrol for the division in which their next of kin is enrolled, or, if there is no next of kin, the division in which they were born. Electors not born in Australia can enrol in the division with which they have the closest connection.”
205 Darn -
thanks for that info. One thing that concerned me on polling day was a couple of people from interstate who came to vote were told they couldnot do so at the booth they were at. Their choices were 3 others, all at least 35 mins to an hour’s drive away. One guy showed up at about 5:45 so he wouldn’t have made it even if he had wanted to.
(they all wanted to vote Green too -bugger).
So, will they be fined for not voting, even though they had attempted to?
Obviously they couldn’t be crossed off the roll, so what happens???
Neilbris @242
Whether John Howard is a racist is something that each of us can decide.
However, I certainly don’t listen the chardonnay socialist type like Adams.
I definitely don’t listen to a former Prime Minister who gave our party the 2nd largest electoral defeat since 1949 (after Whitlam) and hasn’t realised that he lost the election and needs to move on.
I will take my lead from the consensus, rebuilding style of Mr Rudd and Mr Hawke.
Yeah for Macca’s guy!
Will he be offering discount “meals” to his parliamentary colleagues who come up and visit?
If you fail to vote, basically you complete a stat dec and maybe supply documentary evidence if relevant. Essentially the AEC will let it pass.
I expect if you fail to respond or give a smart-arse answer – then you cop a fine.
Pancho an overseas voter’s electorate is the one they were enrolled in when living in Australia.
Pages: « 1 … 3 4 [5] 6 7 … 17 » Show All