Below is a preliminary Mackerras pendulum/table based on current results. The first thing to note is that the Liberals seem to be enjoying one-way traffic in late counting. They have taken the lead in Dickson, Swan and Bowman, appear home-and-hosed in La Trobe and are strongly placed in Macarthur. An 862 vote lead in McEwen would also normally be a basis on which to claim victory, but there are reports of “the discovery of about 3000 votes wrongly sent to neighbouring Scullin” which don’t seem to have been factored in yet. Only in Herbert has late counting actively improved Labor’s position. They are also keeping their noses in front in Solomon, although the imminent count of electronically lodged military votes might narrow the gap. If these trends continue Labor will end up with a relatively disappointing haul of 84 seats, against 64 for the Coalition and two independents. In that case it would take a loss of only nine seats at the next election for Labor to lose its majority, which would occur on a uniform swing of just 1.7 per cent. Bennelong again emerges as the litmus test seat: Labor can take comfort in the likelihood that it will swing heavily to them in John Howard’s absence. The next seat up the pendulum is Petrie in northern Brisbane, where Labor currently leads by 2.3 per cent.
Labor supporters might assume that federal politics will now follow the precedent established time and again at state level, where Labor enjoyed landslide re-election wins after establishing themselves in power. However, the historical record at the federal level offers the unhappy precedent of first-term swings against every post-war government (though only in 1998 was it greater than 1.7 per cent). I have a high enough opinion of Malcolm Turnbull to imagine he can steer the party clear of many of the obstacles that have faced it at state level, should the party be sensible enough to make him leader. Whoever takes the mantle, they will face the severe difficulty of a party room dominated by members from Western Australia, whose sensitivity to the national mood is indicated by today’s front page headline in The West Australian: “WA Libs demand party stands by WorkChoices”.
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26.5 Batman 25.4 Grayndler 24.1 Throsby 23.6 Melbourne 23.3 Wills 22.0 Gellibrand 21.2 Scullin 21.0 Chifley 21.0 Gorton 21.0 Watson 20.0 Port Adelaide 20.0 Sydney |
New England 24.6 (IND vs NAT) Mallee 21.6 |
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19.5 Calwell 19.2 Blaxland 18.9 Fowler 18.5 Cunningham 17.0 Reid 16.4 Hunter 15.9 Newcastle 15.8 Lalor 15.6 Denison 15.6 Fraser 15.3 Maribyrnong 15.3 Werriwa 15.1 Shortland |
Murray 18.3 O’Connor 16.6 Kennedy 15.9 (IND vs ALP) Riverina 15.7 |
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14.9 Oxley 13.9 Prospect 13.7 Hotham 13.6 Kingsford Smith 13.5 Capricornia 13.3 Charlton 13.1 Lingiari 12.5 Barton 12.5 Griffith 12.3 Holt 12.0 Rankin 11.8 Canberra 11.2 Banks |
Moncrieff 14.4 Curtin 14.3 Bradfield 13.6 Maranoa 13.0 Mackellar 12.6 Parkes 12.4 Mitchell 11.4 Calare 11.3 Farrer 11.3 Fadden 10.4 |
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9.5 Corio 9.5 Fremantle 9.5 Richmond 9.4 Perth 9.2 Jagajaga |
Warringah 9.5 Moore 9.3 Barker 9.1 Pearce 9.1 Indi 9.0 |
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8.7 Bruce 8.6 Ballarat 8.6 Lilley 8.6 Lyons 8.5 Adelaide 8.0 Melbourne Ports |
Kooyong 8.9 Tangney 8.8 Berowra 8.7 McPherson 8.7 Lyne 8.4 Wide Bay 8.3 Groom 8.1 |
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7.9 Isaacs 7.8 Makin 7.5 Chisholm 7.4 Lowe 7.4 Macquarie 7.2 Parramatta 7.1 Lindsay 7.0 Brisbane |
Flinders 7.8 Wannon 7.3 Cook 7.1 |
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6.9 Wakefield 6.1 Brand 6.0 Bendigo |
Higgins 6.8 Mayo 6.8 Casey 6.1 |
| 5.1 Hindmarsh |
Forrest 5.8 Gippsland 5.7 Menzies 5.7 Goldstein 5.6 Canning 5.4 North Sydney 5.2 Aston 5.1 |
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4.9 Blair 4.8 Bonner 4.8 Moreton 4.7 Leichhardt 4.6 Kingston 4.5 Franklin 4.1 Dobell 4.1 Eden-Monaro |
McMillan 4.9 Greenway 4.6 |
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3.7 Longman 3.5 Dawson 3.1 Forde |
Grey 3.9 Ryan 3.8 Wentworth 3.7 Dunkley 3.5 Gilmore 3.4 Hume 3.4 |
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2.6 Flynn 2.4 Page 2.3 Petrie |
Boothby 2.9 Fairfax 2.6 Fisher 2.6 |
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1.7 Bennelong 1.7 Deakin 1.5 Braddon 1.4 Hasluck |
Hughes 1.8 Kalgoorlie 1.6 Cowan 1.4 Hinkler 1.2 Paterson 1.2 Stirling 1.1 Cowper 1.0 Sturt 1.0 |
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0.9 Bass 0.9 Corangamite 0.8 Solomon 0.5 Robertson 0.4 Herbert |
La Trobe 0.5 McEwen 0.5 Macarthur 0.4 Bowman 0.02 Swan 0.02 Dickson 0.01 |
720 Comments
This pendulum is still fluid yet still so much better than the last one.
Be it 84, 85, 86 seats to Labor, it is a hefty mandate that has it well placed in 2010 or 2011. A 2% swing to Labor next time around will give it 98 seats and a majority of 46. Malcolm Turncoat - have a nice time!
OMG imagine a 2% swing to Labor next time around. I got to stop taking Hubris pills……very addictive!
In 1977 there really was only a negligible swing back to Labor of around 1.1%. This was after a huge loss in 1975 when you’d expect there would ordinarily be a larger swing. Now this could be put down to the fact Gough stupidly stayed on, but I suppose that’s just to say that really anything could happen.
I don’t happen to share William’s high opinion of Malcolm Turnbull and honestly see him flopping within 2 years time. Still, Labor will need to work hard to consolidate their marginals and possibly win a few in the next election.
I don’t think Turnbull or anyone can really help the Libs now. After reading Simon Benson’s article in the DT, I am convinced that not only do the Libs NOT need to merge with the Nationals as one party, they need to split themselves a la the Labor Party circa 1954. The factions within the Liberal party are so deep and divided that they can’t mend them. Whether or not that split is along geographical lines (WA Libs split and form their own party) or ideological lines, it must happen if they are to survive in any functional capacity. This is proven by the fact that they are now out of power everywhere.
http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/simonbenson/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/liberals_must_split_from_nationals/
All the more reason to push for the Double Dissolution.
Here’s hoping the libs still don’t get it.
Even if there is a swing to the Coalition at the next election, they would still need a 2.6% swing in their own right to gain a majority.
I think what constitutes the term “relatively disappointing” could benefit from further elucidation by William Bowe.
If the Coalition had won 84 seats, this would have been considered one of Howard’s greatest triumphs.
It matters infinitesimally little, either in the Parliament or the next election, how many of these knife-edge marginals you win. The demographic changes alone between now and next election will be greater than their current % margins.
Also next time it will boost Labor’s vote to have one or more Coalition state governments. Too bad NSW won’t be gone before then, but people will have it in mind that it’s only 5 months away before they can flush Iemma as long as they’ve already retained Labor in Canberra.
Wow. After the biggest result for the ALP in decades, they still only have a wafer thin majority.
This changes the nature of the game a bit. For instance, everybody seems to be assuming that the Coalition turn inward and eat itself in despair. But why should they? They have a reasonable chance of winning government back after only one term in Opposition.
Thus I expect the Coalition will actually get its act together quite effectively betwen now and the next election.
the wa dominance over the liberals is quite interesting. bishop should be a shoe in given she will be picking up wa and moderate support (at least second preferences).
Is there anywhere I can find out how particular booths swung. I am interested in two specific booths in different electorates to see a) if my observations on the day were accurate and b) in one booth see how a particular behaviour translated.
William, I wouldn’t call 84 seats for Labor disappointing! It’s more than I predicted they’d win. And let’s not give up yet on Swan, Dickson and Bowman as potential Labor wins. Am I correct that Labor does better in absentees and provisionals than postals?
It’s a damn shame Rodney Cocks won’t win La Trobe - he would have been a good addition to the parliament. Maybe the ALP can find something else for him, or Rudd can appoint him to some body.
Hemingway, I don’t think Morris Iemma will last until 2011: the N.S.W ALP will dump him in favour of John Watkins(who did a lot to help Maxine McKew win Bennelong)
Harry…
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseTppByDivision-13745-NAT.htm
Just click on any division, then on Two Candidate Preferred By Polling Place.
cheers.
London Eye @ 2 - “Malcolm Turncoat”
What an excellent slur, i will be sure to use that to get in the faces of lib supporters.
Additional consideration is that out that 5 of the 6 remaining Coalition incumbent doubtfuls were not even considered remotely marginal three years ago. Only La Trobe was down near 5%. Macarthur was over 10%.
Conversely, Swan could be a Labor incumbent loss with a miniscule swing of 0.1% and Cowan less than 1%. Are Swan and Cowan now the Anti-bellweather electorates?
As a general observation, there seem to be more seats with very small margins (less than 1%) now than in the previous parliament. Is this true?
Howard Hater @ 13.
Hope you are correct about dumping Iemma for Watkins, even though don’t know how they can survive when we don’t need them to protect us from the big, bad Howard Government anymore.
Watkins is a great choice. When he was education Minister for about a year before the 2003 election, he even managed to get along with the Teachers Federation!
84 seats would make your prediction spot on, well done William
BTW, regardless of mandates, I think Rudd got elected because he was competent and harmless, promising only to do what was needed. But I found Rudd’s comments on Bernie Banton, visiting homeless shelters, and even Ross Gitten’s comments in SMH this morning all heartening. They all spoke about a desire for a more decent government, as well as just being efficient and doing the obvious (scraping Workchoices, signing Kyoto). People said that this election made no difference, but we have already seen that it has mattered a great deal.
Howard got relected promising to raise standards, then didn’t. He over promised, and under delivered. If Rudd can do the opposite, I would be very pleasantly surprised.
HH
I wouldn’t be sorry to see Iemma go, but if we are going to be honest about NSW Libs and their toxic crew, then similarly I have to say that a lot more than Iemma need to go in NSW State Labor. He is the tip, but unfortunately there is a very slimy berg underneath.
Fargo61 Thank you!!! It confirmed my sense of the vibe and it also tells me the behaviour I was observing was people carrying mini baseball bats in their pockets.
John Watkins has turned a formerly marginal Liberal seat of Ryde into a safe Labor seat, he’s a good media performer, and a thoroughly nice bloke.
In comparison, Iemma is a tongue tied, accident prone buffoon.
Robertson is an interesting one. On election night Labor looked to have won comfortably; now there’s a only 0.5% lead. Postals must be breaking pretty strongly for Jim Lloyd, and depending how many are remaining it could still be pretty close.
Marcus: Belinda Neale claimed victory in Robertson. Maybe she should have waited for the postals to be counted? LOL
Extraordinary.
The ALP achieves a very large swing ~ 6%, the third largest in history since the war, equals the ALP TPP vote in 1983, and holds a 20+ seat majority, all in the best economic times in our history, and it’s a disappointing result!
Now we have people forecasting how the next election will play out and who will gain seats and who will lose seats, it’s quite extraordinary.
Three things came out of Saturday, and all of them are good:
1. The Howard era is over. The era of the wedge, the race card, the divisiveness, and the mean spririted behaviour is over. The Crosby-Textor view of the political world is over. Not only did Howard lose the election, he lost his seat, another record.
2. Kevin Rudd has been elected, and if anyone saw the 7.30 report last night, you began to see what he will be like. He will be a first rate PM.
3. The Liberal party will once again return to being a Liberal party. Turnbull, Nelson, Bishop ,and Pyne, are all Liberals. This can only be good for the nation.
The backward looking, divisive, petty and mean spirited nature of recent politics will be gone for good. Thank heavens!
Thanks William. The final count doesn’t look too much like a landslide now does it? Regardless, interesting times for 2010 with so many marginals.
Two Points:
1. Can someone explain what’s meant by “imminent count of electronically lodged military votes”. I’m worried about the electronic lodgment bit - given how bad electronic voting has been in the USA, I hope it’s not coming here.
2. Those suggesting a Double Dissolution, keep in mind that with a DD the quota required for a seat is halved. Some may think this will be good for the Greens but it will also be so for Family First, One Nation, and other right nutters. The threat of One Nation getting a number of seats in the Senate is supposedly part of the reason Howard never called a DD in his early terms.
I know it’s been mentioned before, but do we have any actual read on how the preferences in O’Connor are developing?
SMH Report
Apparently (??) the national is widely respected as an environmentalist and so maybe enough of the greens will follow the HTV cards and edge the Nats ahead of hte ALP.
If everyone follows the HTVs then Tuckey loses - FF, the CEC and the Greens send the Nats ahead of Labor. Tuckey needs (irnoically enough) lots of green voters to give their second preferences to the ALP (against the green HTV card).
Did anyone here scrutineer in O’Connor? Their the only one’s likely to know the real answer.
In Robertson if the postals break the same way as the Pre-poll Lloyd will be returned. Which would be… OK.
Its possible that both Hasluck and Bennalong will move into the less than 1.0% margin before counting is finished.
Last election Bennalong picked up about +0.8% in swing from postals, absents etc
Its also fun seeing the national 2PP swing to ALP bouncing around as the postal, pre-poll and absent votes are getting counted.
From memory, election night left the 2PP swing to ALP at 6.3%.
Its now down to 5.9% and deflating slowly.
I just can’t see WA sticking to [insert leader here] like they stuck to Howard.
I would assume that Labor would do better in the west.
I also reckon that there would be a swing to the ALP in the east also - assuming Rudd delivers and in the absence of some stunning cock-up.
Watkins is almost the only saving grace in NSW parliament. He has performed like a superstar especially given the team of duds surrounding him. But it seems a bit of a stretch to think that the NSW right would allow someone from the left to take the top job.
Rudd hasn’t started governing yet and already people are predicting he’ll lose the next election? LMAO
Over at the Manly Daily yesterday they were trying to cinvince the locals that the Liberals had won. They had something about ‘bucking the trend’. Any swing against ‘The Mad Monk’ is a positive, even if ~ 2%. I expect though that when your head is firmly up your arse for so long you just don’t notice the stench.
Watkins gets all the hard portfolios, like police and transport, and does a fair job with them! Iemma will no doubt stick him in health next, because you can be sure Reba Meagher won’t last in that portfolio.
Who have the N.S.W right got to offer? Sartor, Tripodi, Costa? Watkins trumps the lot of them.
With prepolls running so strongly in favour of the LNP one has to wonder what the true effect of the Lindsay pamphlet scandal was.
Why does it take you lot so long to count the votes?
In UK we do it in 24 hours…………..
Viva la coalition 2010
Kruddites, deal with it: the new Government’s majority is underwhelming, certainly when measured up against every other first term government since the Depression, the notable exception being E.G. Whitlam. Furthermore, the swing required for a change of government is also relatively modest. Its all about the Liberals…if they get their act together (I acknowledge a big ‘if’) they are a huge chance, especially if their is a recession (unfortunately for the country, not such a big ‘if’)
A sign of what Turnbull might be like as a leader, with an early attempt at either outflanking (or maybe just decency)?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/28/2103199.htm?section=justin
“Turnbull backs ’sorry’ promise”
HH - Costa can’t be leader as he would have to move from Legco the lower house. And there is no way the ALP would win a state by-election at the moment. Besides, he is a country member.
Hey Ave it!
“Ave it 07 Says:
November 5th, 2007 at 7:07 am
162 LOL
View from england - we think the Coalition will hold on!
Could be as big as 10 maj for Coalition….. a long night of disappointment for Labor….”
Close, boss! Good to see you keeping your chin up.
I suspect the Liberals, for superficial reasons only, will go for Julie Bishop as deputy. This woman is typical Perth Western Suburbs - expensive private schools, flash houses, and perpetual cocktail circuits. Hence the headline in today’s Worst Australian about keeping workchoices - “That will keep those working class bludgers in their place won’t it”.
It just demonstrates how thick she really is. Surely all the negative stats that the Howard Govt. wouldn’t release will soon be made public, and this blight on our industrial relations history will be rubbed out for all time. Even Howard knew this when he said that if this IR system was disposed of now, it could never be introduced again in the future.
They will elect her, and they will regret it.
Er…mainly because we make sure that everybody votes here in Australia so we don’t have a government winning with the votes of less than 25% of the population, there’s two-candidate preferred counting to do, and it’s geographically more challenging. For starters.
42 LOL
Quite like Mia Handshin tho’
Perhaps she could come over to UK!
Does anyone think that the Liberals are in danger of becoming the “me too” party.
If they rush to the centre, where is the difference from the “real thing”, ie, Ruddy labor?
38 : ever heard of preferences?
Chris@39, wasn’t 16 seats a huge ask, and beyond what was possible given a decade of government and a strategic marginals campaign? So what does that make a 26 (or thereabouts) gain? The Liberals have no money and no power base. I wouldn’t be holding my breath if I were you.
38 Ave it 07 Says
Why does it take you lot so long to count the votes?
In UK we do it in 24 hours……
Because we have a democracy of the whole people not just those who can be cajoled into voting plus:
1) Absentee ballot papers have to be sent from the booth they were cast to the relevant Divisional counting office. In a big country this takes time.
2) Time has to be allowed for Postal Vote ballots to get to the relevant Divisional counting office.
3) We have automatic recounts in this country.
47 - FPTP = proper voting.
Con wins it in two hours proper election
OK we havent had that since 1992.
There is a good deal of anger and resentment among older people that they were largely ignored by both parties in the run up to the election. Given that the proportion of older people in the electorate is increasing inexorably and that their vote will become more and more important, Rudd might usefully think about their needs and wants. It is clear that many older people have gladly supported Rudd for the concern he has shown for thei children and grandchildren, but that gratitude may be quickly dissipated if he appears careless of their influence.
I predict Macolm Turnbull as opposition leader and Julie Bishop as deputy.Sort of like Ken and Barbie. LOL
Well, I suspect that given the number of seats won byu the ALP on Green prefereces, in FPTP voting the Liberals would have been returned - despite over 50% of the primary going to either the ALP or the Greens.
I hardly call that “proper voting”.
49 hahahahahahaha
You cant beat proper british voting!!!!!!
the cradle of democracy!!!!!!!!!
53 - LOL
IE labor have no mandate.
That means Coalition would have won which is good for you.
No labor required.
Speaking of swings, the Libs will only need just a small 2.7% swing to win the next election. Looks like Rudd will have to stay conservative for his first term. Then again, he’s always been conservative, LOL.
54 & 55 As far as Trolls go you’re hopeless.
Reba Meagher personifies all that is stuffed about the NSW Branch of the Labor Party and serves as a sobering lesson that Rudd’s “brutal” point last night about reviewing ministers’ performances periodically is absolutely critical to the success of his government.
Some NSW Federal Labor members get pre-selection due to factional deals or other non-merit criteria. For example, Bob Debus (my local member for many years) was hardly a brilliant Minister in the Carr Government, though better than most of those turkeys, and no doubt he will be considered for a Rudd ministry straight away since he passes the experience test. He might be able to pull off a John Fahey a make some reasonable contribution.
Granny Anny
If the 2007 Federal Election has taught us anything, it is:
The. Deputy. Leader. Of. The. Opposition. Doesn’t. Matter.
I think Julie Bishop would make a good deputy, and the pure politics make sense, as either Turnbull or Nelson would need to keep the WA Libs on side.
57 LOL
Labor already have no mandate!
Wipe the gloss over your lucky win!
Hehe australia economy # now.
Australia taken over by PNG 2008
Almost taken from the north 1941 - coming true in 2008.
LOL australia.
Maccatas @ 51
I’ll wait until we’ve got age-based stats before worrying about how many older voters “glady supported Rudd”, since the opinion polls showed Labor’s swings were in the younger and baby-boomer age groups.
In fact, I’d predict that the “narrowing” during the campaign is greater as you get into the older voter range.
In 1999, the Coalition only needed something like a 0.1% swing to win Government in NSW (they only needed 1 seat I think - Bathurst was on 0.1%).
Most of the media thought it would be close.
The result? Mega-landslide to Labor as Kerry Chika-boom! imploded so spectacularly that the seat of Southern Highlands became a cliffhanger…
Aristotle 26
Quite right my philosophical friend. You said what I was trying to say but much more neatly. Its like a breath of fresh air blowing through a rather fetid swamp.
Oh, and I forgot to mention the Sun Herald’s headline that day:
CHIKA-ROLLED!
‘ave it, I must admit your posts are rather neatly impressionistic.
In a few words, you can conjure up the braying laugh … the weak chin … the self-satisfied ignorance … the smirky smugness …
I just wonder why you bother. Got any more likeable characters?
60 The constant LOL??? Are you on some medication??? Living where you do you’d probably need to.
Make a break for your health and come and join us in the Peoples Republic of Ruddland
61 - good call. The older voters are more experienced and wouldnt believe labor #.
Still the young must learn musnt they?
RE: #41 - “Costa can’t be leader as he would have to move from Legco the lower house. And there is no way the ALP would win a state by-election at the moment. Besides, he is a country member.”
Yes I remember, he certainly is.
Ahhh Hansard Jokes….
I can’t see the party splitting - too much institutional inertia holding it together. If the extremists take over, though, it’s nice to fantasize about a mass defection by liberals to the Australian Democrats - perhaps the only thing that might revive them now.
William -
Wonder if you could answer an interesting query that I have.
If we redistribute booth results back to 2004 election boundaries, would Howard still have lost Bennelong (I’m guessing not)? I recall you did your own calculations following the redistribution so it may be easy for you to reverse engineer these calculations.
These are the sort of things that keep me awake at night!
Swing Lowe, I’m sure it won’t happen this time federally. The Libs only need a small 2.7% swing to them to win the next election. Watch out!
72 - YES LIB 2010!!!!!!!!
Ave It 07, are you a cricket tragic like our former PM? There has been a strong element of tragedy in english cricket in recent times.
Also, since you are in england, interested in politics, and given the modernity of your views, who is your favourite Minister in Thatcher’s cabinet? Do you expect her to run again? Or are you still worried about that young blighter, Tony Blair?
For your education, Iceland was the cradle of modern democracy. Why not emigrate?
Surely the key dynamics of this term up to the next election depend on two three things: the credibility of the opposition, the economy and the fights the opposition chose to have with the Govt in the senate.
The reality is that the Howard Govt did most things poorly. Name a Fed Govt dept or agency that runs well? The economy, Keating’s economy carried them for almost the whole 11 years, aided by fear and racism.
So long as the economy goes ok and the unions stay under control, in three years time you have a young Govt with energy and passion but without the fear campaign and with any ‘fear of change’ factor in their favour. Economy tanks labor is probably doomed no matter how well they do; unless they can spend the whole three years blaming the previous Govt successfully.
The opposition generally has a bit of work to do. Do they pick Chris (I just spent an whole election complaining about what Labor did 17 years ago but you can’t talk to me about the Govt I was in a month ago that is history) Pyne who can’t remember workchoices, or Julie who loves it still or robot machine man Robb. Leader seems even harder.
Then what fights do they pick, or do they leave it to the greens and the other senators to be the trouble makers, hoping they drive the Govt to the left leaving room in the centre?
Will be lots of fun.
Ave it 07
RIP Democrats 2007
RIP Liberals 2010
74 - its a bit cold in iceland
72 - YES LIB 2010!!!!!!!!
Ave 07, glad to see you are planning to continue your winning streak of backing losers.
53
well the people who voted Labor did not vote the greens
the people who voted the greens did not vote labor
labor won the election dispite 6 in 10 people did not vote for them
I would be pretty upset if I had the highest vote, but becuase other people “swapped preferences” they beat me.
I do not think it is that bad a system
..or.. they could stick together and be back in power in six to fourteen years.
Which is almost certainly what will happen.
Wait until all the dirt comes out on the Howard era, the Libs can forget any chance in 2010.
78: H to the A to the H to the A…….
Introducing preferential voting in the UK would be good but also introducing multi-member electorates would mean that the system became proportional which would mean that it was properly democratic. No more pandering to the marginals (if there are a sufficient number of seats per electorate) but campaining and governing for all of the jurisdiction (geographicly anyway). Multi-member electorates would also help Australia.
83 - we like marginals
And we like the uk swingometer
but we miss peter snow (he’s not doing it next time)
does mia handshin know anything about swingometers……..
dovif
Bob Brown was running around telling people before the election that you could effectively ‘vote twice’ by voting Green, because you could vote Green and then preference another Party. That is the nature of the system and people are no so dumb as to not appreciate that.
The ALP was easily the most preferred party both in terms of primary votes and 2PP votes. The Tories lost. Move on.
to Pollio at #71 - If we did un redistribute as you suggested, perhaps JWH would’ve held his seat. But then others such as my own Greenway would’ve fallen. It’s all swings and roundabouts really!
If they ALP had put the same effort into Grey as in Boothby and Sturt, it would have won back this seat which it has held for much of the past.
Before we start believing that the end of the Liberal Party is nigh.
Don’t forget our party was dessimated in 1996 with the loss of 28 seats and a primary vote swing against us of 6.1% (nearly 2% greater than what the Libs copped this election)
We came back, admittedly it took us 11.5 years, but it would have been 3 years earlier if it had not been for that bipolar lunatic Latham being made Labor Leader.
AM 81
Quite right. Labor doesn’t even need to dig it up. The Haneef case is still before the courts and Hicks’ gag order expires in early 2008. Both will be acutely embarrassing for Andrews and Ruddock, without a politically directed AFP to protect them.
Multi-member electorates in the lower house would be disasterous.
One of the great things about Australian democracy is we know on election night who the Prime Minister is.
Imagine having to negotiate with the Greens to form government? Or Family First?
Single member electorates means stability, one of the reasons we have such a benign attitude to politics, and a low (physical) casualty rate.
The people who vote Green and preference Labor are saying that they want the Greens but if they can`t have them they`ll have Labor and I think that alot of the Labor voters would prefer the Greens to the the Libs and some would if they understood the levrel of right wingness in modern Labor would prefere the Greens to the Labor.
HC @ 90
I couldn’t agree with you more.
Let’s not look to Italian politics as a role model
Aristostle @ 26
Absolutely right, Rudd isn’t even sworn in and people are getting nervous about losing the next election. How surreal!
Just watching Mr Rudd on the 7.30 Report last night, two words came to mind: ‘relaxed’ and ‘comfortable’, and so all the nervous nellies should take a nice cup of tea an iced vovo and chill out a bit.
Watching him raise a few laughs with Kerry while assuredly taking the party through transition to government, I suddenly realised that this guy is headed ultimately to the ranks of international statesman. Rudd looks over the horizon and knows where he wants to go, which is why he never stooped to look down at the little man he defeated, and wasted no time with self glory and indulgent vanquishing of the last government.
This is the true man of steel, with his eye firmly on the ball. Howard was given that epithet as a reward for the most cringing sycophancy to the mad neoconservative administration in Washington, and he never deserved it. Rudd on the other hand will earn it, every hour of every day.
From day one Rudd is making his plans to get his government on the ground, among us, and engaged with the real world, and watch him establish Labor as the party of the people, not just of unions or the left. There is a revolution coming, and it has great promise to be a re-engaging of the populace with the process of government rather than what it has become under the Howard years, a resigned apathy and smouldering resentment.
Instead of playing the caustic partisan games of the last decade, maybe it’s time to accentuate the positive, move on, and mould a new paradigm. It’s time, sieze this moment, Australia has voted for it.
William,
Thank you for providing this site over the campaign.
At times it was hard work going through all the posts here - any jewels were buried under too much noisy nonsense. Your tolerance of the silly, the rude and occasionally offensive contributors is understood; it did become easier to skip the consistent no-quality entries.
But to the true debaters, the writers of considered opinions, thanks to you.
As I said early in the campaign, ALP in the low eighties was the result expected.
The number of close seats held on Green preferences will make the 2011(?) election another interesting occasion. (e.g. my electorate Bass, a Green delivery to ALP with previous Liberal member just edged out - despite the pulp mill imbroglio.)
Now I’m off back to the real job for a couple of years …..
Apologies in advance, but this idea of the `shoe in` seems to have taken hold. It`s all very well to put the boot/slipper/shoe in to someone, but if you think something is a foregone conclusion it`s a shoo in. Ah, that feels better.
54 Typical British Tory Hubris. My friend it is the French which “cradled” democracy in the modern age. You pommies were scared sh*tl*ss (not uncommon for you cowering lot).
Kirribilli and Aristotle
I agree, Rudd so far looks better than I’d dare hope. A strong mood of change is in the air, as demonstrated by the Liberals desperate hurry to jettison some of their own policies. The fact that people criticised the campaign for not having enough difference hardly implies that they didn’t want Rudd to make a difference!
And as for Howard, yes he had the “courage” to promote his own prejudices, while calling anyone with a different view “un-Australian”. Gone but not forgiven.
Soozie #86 - absolutely. Not at all trying to turn this into a “Howard was unlucky” story.
I just enjoy the historical quirks that occasionally get thrown up like this. I think Andrew Leigh had a paper which showed a few pollies (Beazley was one I think) who would have lost elections had they not been listed in the top spot on the ballot paper.
The fact that Howard not only lost the election but also lost his seat will (I think) seriously tarnish his legacy [and deservedly so in my opinion
]
Unless Labor has a disaterous 3 years, I don’t beleive the Libs have any chance in 2010, it is more likely to be worse for the Libs.
It is obvious the Liberal scare campaign and media bias reduced the swing to Labour, in 2010 it is possible that the full swing will then become realised, without the media bias and a Liberal Party scare campaign based on the past.
AM
Regarding Labor in 2010, yes not only all of what you said, but more. By then quite a few Liberal pigeons will have come home to roost, including inflation, scandals, and even further adverse impacts from climate change.
96 LOL bet you were worried in 1941 - you would have lasted 2 days if the japanese had invaded! hehehehehe
90 ‘One of the great things about Australian democracy is we know on election night who the Prime Minister is.’ - subject to counting the rest of the votes - can howard still win hehehehe
“can howard still win hehehehe”
Ave it 07, No, Howard is gone.
Last election he picked up an extra 0.8% swing from postals etc.
He is currently 1.7% behind, so no miracle story can be expected there
How the Left in the USA views the Howard defeat:
Good riddance to John Howard
http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/2007/11/24/howard/index.html
.
.
.
How the Right in the USA views the Howard defeat:
John Howard was characteristically graceful in defeat
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MmI0N2YyNjQyOGY2ZmYwMWJlZWU5YWJjY2IwZjE1N2I=
TO WILLIAM BOWE
William your opening comment of the one way late count to LCP is confirmed by the EXTRAORDINARY SWING TO LCP OF 55.89% since midnight Sat nite !!
midnight Sat nite total 2PP votes were 10,045,871 Labor 5,365,501
midnight Mon nite total 2PP votes were 10,294,616 Labor 5,475,230
Of the 248,745 2PP votes since counted the LCP has 55.89% & Labor 44.11%
One assumes the subsequent count would have been over all 150 seats , so William
how can such a massive swing to LCP occur on such a large sample
of 2.41% of ALL votes counted ???
104 - 2.41%
and there is still 20% to be counted!
LOL Coalition could win by 53/47 overall!
Coalition REGAIN Forde!
Hehehehehe
105 LOL Howard moving back in to berri berri or whatever its called next week!
Glad we have proper elections in uk!!!!!!
What was going on? Was it national? At my polling booth in Kings Park (Greenway) many things had changed since the State Election, as well as previous Federal and Council elections. We were removed from our normal positions in the car park, where we were more than 6m from the entrance door. The site has a fence and gate at about 6m, so it has a natural barrier. But on Saturday, we were sent out onto the very inadequate footpath ( it was grassy, uneven, very narrow, too many entrances). In my view, we i.e. Lib, ALP, GRN, should all have been fined for obstruction, as no one could get past.
The worst indignity, however, was that we had to go elsewhere to go to the t*ilet!! Previously, we were allowed inside as long as we covered up or removed any party insignia. I was given a spiel about OH&S and WorkCover, but it all seemed dodgy to me. Thankfully it was not too hot, so we were able to limit liquid intake. But I was working all day. It was most distressing to have to call home to be collected when I needed to wee! At least I am a local, unlike the shipped in Liberals!
There were also issues with the witnessing of the empty ballot boxes and security tagging. Previously, this was done by one of the party scrutineers. We (that is the Libs and I) have no idea who did it this time. All we saw was a scribble. Also, we did not witness the removal of the security tags at the end of polling. Normally, a scrutineer checks those too. This bit makes me wonder - election fraud? Seems a possibility.
I’m not having a shot at the staff at the booth (well, perhaps I am), as the bloke in charge seemed to be reading from the book the entire time. MMMM, I wonder, where was that efficient woman from the state election?
I am in the process of writing to the AEC as it bothers me that procedures were changed with no notification etc.
I was wondering if anyone else had the same or similar experiences?
Ave it - Bennelong. Have a look at a synopsis here: http://www.cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au/barani/themes/theme7.htm
a 1.5% or 2% swinf to ALP next election and it will hold about 2/3 of the floor
It doesn’t look like Parliament will be sitting before the end of the year, so 2011 will probably be the next poll (excluding a DD of course).
By that time, there’ll be a whole new politican dynamic, with Labor having set the agenda for the preceding 3 years.
It is pointless, at this point, to try and pontificate about what that dynamic might be.
There’ll be Labor stuff-ups, certainly. No-one is error-free. The telling issue will be how Rudd deals with the screw-ups. If he faces-up to them and is seen correcting the mistakes, this could well be a positive after years and years of Howard’s “I’m never wrong” denialism.
There will also be the continuing fallout from WorkChoices (remember, Labor has said it will let current AWAs run to term, so there will be people in 2012 still getting screwed at work, courtesy of the Howard Government and the Liberal Party). This won’t help the Libs, especially if they are stupid enough to hold onto WorkChoices in some form as policy.
Finally, as Socrates says, there will be a certain amount of dirt exposure covering the Howard years.
Aside from any enquiries or Royal Commissions Rudd may set-up (and he might well choose not go down this path. Remember that not many Governments are keen on “investigating” their predecessors’ misdeeds, lest someone do it to them later), there’ll be the usual leaks and buckets that emerge from time to time from a disunited, faction-riven and struggling opposition.
Lets face it, if the moderates like Turnbull win leadership, there’ll be a load of pissed-off rightwingers and vice-versa.
And the traditional remedy for such people (on both sides of politics) has always been The Well-Placed Leak.
“Imagine having to negotiate with the Greens to form government?”
Works foine for the Tories in Ireland.
Seriously though - this dodgy looking figure of LNP 55/ ALP 45: is that simply because they’re counting pre-polls, and lots of oldies were involved?
In which case, should postals/ absents swing it back? What order are things being counted in?
On other matters: The Libs are pissing on Howard bigtime today. His legacy hasnt lasted a week after being electorally smashed by Rudd. This is a particularly enjoyable read:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/lib-moderates-ditch-workchoices/2007/11/27/1196036892879.html
eg Victorian MP Russell Broadbent said the party must end the shift to the right that occurred under John Howard. In a declaration that positions him to the left of Kevin Rudd, Mr Broadbent blasted as “ridiculous” and “berserk” the decision to give millionaires tax breaks on their private school fees.
BAHAHA!!!
Howard “ridiculous” and “beserk”!!
Lefty E, John Howard was no right wing nutter. His profligate spending is a testament to that fact.
William
the time frames are midnight Sat nite to midnight Tues nite
More praise of Howard’s legacy. Methinks Hendy’s trying desperately trying to claw back his rputation. Slimey little so and so
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22833978-5013946,00.html
My God this is enjoyable. Anyone else having fun?
So was it a landslide or not? Lets get an independant view from The Economist:
http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10143228
Good news Glen and other Lib supporters, it wasn’t a landslide, just a “crushing defeat”.
Plus, like just about every other international news agency, they have reported the fact that Howard has lost his own seat, and that that is unusual in Australian politics.
re 102.
Also, I understand that he doesn’t want to win - he apparently didn’t have anyone scrutineering on Sunday, and since.
Perusal of the individual booth results on the aec website provides some interesting reading. Before the election there was some talk about what effect the equine flu issue might cause - check out the booth results in the seat of Hunter: 2PP swings against the coalition of more than 20% in Scone and nearby Aberdeen and Murrurundi with Labor winning all the booths in those towns, not something that I think has happened before!
Also interesting to note very big swings to Labor in Nambour with Labor winning all the booths there bar one, and very close in the one it didn’t get, that must be a first. Could this have anything to do with Rudd’s personal connection to this town?
Soozie
The use of toilets and the placement of the boundary marker of the polling booth at a Federal election are all within the remit of the AEC official in charge of the polling place.
Kings Park booth is in fact Kings Park Childcare Centre. Perhaps the Director of the centre had specified that the toilets were not to be opened to the public - which is what you were on the day ie. HTV hander outers are not in any way “official”
As to the sealing and opening of ballot boxes you should have your candidate make a formal complaint if you truly believe there are grounds to do so.
In 40 years of screw-in-earing I have never seen one instance of malfeasance by an AEC official (or for that matter at state or local level). Mistakes yes but not of a nature that would cause an election result (even at booth level) to be brought into question.
We can be very proud of the way elections are conducted in this country.
HAHHAHAHAHA Dr Flegg walks out of leadership meeting.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22835542-5001028,00.html
He didn’t even hang around to vote.
“Generic Person Says:
November 19th, 2007 at 12:54 am No 49
What a joy it will be on Saturday evening, when I will no longer have to argue with petulant school children; John Howard securing a fifth term in office with the largest majority in Australian history.”
keep it up Pancho
soozie
The rules defining the ‘polling place’ had in fact changed. Where I was they said 6m from the ‘polling place’ sign. The AEC official said that they could enforce the entire grounds of the ‘polling place’. I guess that’s what happened in your circumstance.
Yes - it’s very much at the discretion of the officer in charge. The OIC at my booth made it quite clear that he didn’t care where we were as long as we weren’t actually inside the booth.
For those who have jumped on the bandwagon in the last week to have a gloat, I am a self-confessed Liberal supporter and voter, who (like many) had trouble in believing in JH in his later days. I argued vigorously for a switch to Costello a few months back, but sadly nobody who had a vote in these matters read my posts here on PB. Pity that.
Having had various discussions with supporters and members of the Party since the election, I can tell you many were thinking along similar lines. Nobody there wants Labor in power, but the point had been reached where it was probably to our advantage for it to happen. It’s probably good for the COUNTRY for this to happen, the only way a generation shift was going to take place was for us to lose. As hard as it can be to believe, as a Liberal supporter I love my country and want her to see her reach her potential. As such, I understand that a new generation has to come through, and that political parties should never take the public for granted. Thus the loss is a good think in many ways,
Talk of the Liberal Party becoming a minority party is laughable for two reasons. First, there’s nobody genuine to step up and replace them, second, this sort of talk would have been exactly the same for the Labor party if they had lost. Can you imagine for one second the recriminations that would eventuate if Labor had (SNIP - Please don’t swear, people: your comment will go into moderation, often for a very long time, and will usually get deleted altogether - PB) this up? I recall vividly a few years that there was talk of Labor heading to the trash, I rolled my eyes then as I do now.
Already there is talk of renewal. I’m split between Nelson and Turnball for the leader - in one respect I would hope Nelson leads for a year or so, before Turnball takes over closer to the election. But that’s not going to happen, so I hope Turnball gets it.
I also don’t buy this apparent belief that Labor has secured two terms in office. Pretty much every election comes with it predictions that the winner has secured it’s legacy. Three years ago, it was inconceivable that Howard could come close to losing, but look what happened. A competent opposition will grab a couple of percentage points back without raising a sweat - mainly because the noose of Workchoices and John Howard will be removed from the parties neck, along with the ending of the ‘It’s Time’ factor. People who think that this isn’t worth a point or two are kidding themselves. The question is whether this will be capitalised on to get even more of a swing to form government.
Labor will also have a tough time convincing people that it wasn’t their fault interest rates rose, given their blaming of Howard this year. It could come back to bite them as much as it did for Howard. We will see.
My hope is that the gloating and cheering which has dominated these threads for the past few weeks (months?) will evaporate soon, and in it’s place a decent debate of policies and ideas.
Time to ‘SCHOOL YOU’ ya POMMY nitwit.
In Australia we have a preference system that allows for the elected candidate to have a 50 + .01% to claim a constituency.
For eg …
Labor = 45%
Liberals = 45%
Greens = 10%
Because there is no candidate that has 50% + then the candidate with the least votes has their vote counted first until it is exhausted. That would be the Greens. If the Greens had a preference deal with Labor & lets say that all the green voters followed the ‘how to vote card’ that is give their 2nd preference to Labor then that magical democratic no of 50% + is reached.
Labor = 55%
Liberal = 45%
Greens = exhausted.
The winner is Labor in this scenario. In POM land you have what is called a ‘First past the post’ system where the candidate with the most votes outright wins the constituency. For example if a candidate in a count got 30% of the vote and the rest individually got less than that then that one with 30% wins. Even if 70% of voters did not vote for him/her. What kind of democracy is that?
Looks like us Australians have a far superior model for vote counting and our Labor government is legitimate with over 50% of the vote.
Talk about Labor government isn’t that what you have in the UK? Piss off you sore LOSER you have no business here!
PS - Apologies to William if I’m a little forth rite.
Rates Analyst @ 53, you’re almost certainly wrong. Although there may be a few changes (in either direction) in the final count, at present there are only eight seats where Labor is behind on primaries but ahead on preferences: Bass, Corangamite, Deakin, Hasluck, Herbert, Page, Robertson, and Solomon. Even without all of those, Labor would still have won the election.
Rates Analcyst you seem to have forgotten all those elections where the Libs rode to “victory” on DLP preferences.
Pancho 121 that is really funny.
GP, if you are not busy shredding incriminating documents, would you please make a similar prediction for 2010. Nothing would give me mroe confidence in the result.
So, if the count progresses along these lines, Labor will be on 84, coalition on 64.
The tories would therefore need 12 seats in 2010, and the 12th seat, as I see it, is Flynn, on 2.6%.
Interesting. Swings are never uniform blah blah blah….
If we are serious about political leaders then one must conclude that
Turnbull & Nelson are flakey & support any issue that wins votes ala Howard
but Abbott IS a conviction politican who I would NEVER vote for
but who I respect for speaking the policys he believes in.
Alas , he will not be given the chance over time to persuade voters of his views as the Liberals are looking for short time voter perception to win
I was defending the proportional system - and trying to suggest that the left-wing mandate is as strong as it has ever been, arguably.
I accept that I may have overstated the number of seats where the ALP wins on preferences - though 76 is only the smallest of victories and the overall point stands.
It’s a myth that right wingers aren’t big spenders. I lived in the USA during the Ronald Reagan era and his spending dwarfed anything before him.
How many seats will the ALP win in 2010 if there is something like a 1.5% swing too the ALP?
re Soozie 107
Where I was, central Queensland, the local AEC officials took the opposite approach, allowing booth workers inside the school grounds to take advantage of the shelter that was available, this hasn’t happened previously and appeared to be widespread across booths in Flynn, Capricornia and Dawson.
If there’s a swing against the ALP, good luck everyone. The Libs just need a small 2.7% swing to win the next election!! LOL!
Liberal MPs in marginal seats seem to be better organised when it comes to postal votes. It explains why time and time again, they can be anything up to 2% behind in election night, yet still retain the seat after postals and absentees have been counted. A classic example was Trish Worth, former MP for Adelaide, retaining her seat after trailing by something like 1000 votes on election night.
That’s because he was working on the “starve the beast” plan, you know, put the government in so much debt that his political opponents can’t propose to spend more money.
Why is everyone worrying about 2010 or 2011? You’re underestimating Rudd if you think he’ll meekly hand government back to the Liberals.
Is anyone surprised that Downer is doing the numbers for Turnbull?
I thought he’d be doing the numbers for Abbott, because Abbott is the “Keep the Howard Legacy Alive” candidate.
Might Labor legislate for the South Australian system where boundaries are supposed to ensure that the 2PP winner has a majority of seats?
Early prediction - Labor to pick up seats in 2010, 4 or 5 at least.
Ha. Sportingbet has already opened a 2010/11 betting market. ALP 1.18, Libs 4.50. Shorter than going into this election…trying to draw some Lib money while they can?
Downer and Abbott don’t really like each other. It was obvious when Downer was asked his opinion of the likely candidates for Opposition Leader and said some nice things about Nelson and Turnbull but really struggled to say anything good about Abbott. It’s a surprise considering Abbott’s “good people skills”.
aussieG - a general election (first past…) in New Guinea some 15 years ago resulted in one constituency delivering the winning candidate with slightly less than 5% of the popular vote. Tribal loyalties were at the heart of this exaggerated outcome.
So there’s democracy and there’s democracy - and results like this would foster feelings, for many voters, of being effectively disenfranchised.
Preferential voting, two candidate preferred (TCP), isn’t perfect but is much more likely to deliver a winning candidate with broad support.
In the U.S. AP reports that an 83 year old businessman gets prison for violating the oil for food progamme. http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hE-e-1lra65DSczBsRtXMi_R2sQwD8T6B1B00 . This is how it should be done. Howard,Dolly and Vaile rigged the system so that they could not be held to account.Lets hope this crime gets reviewed and leads to charges being laid.
When was the last time there was a new government on such a narrow margin?
The Liberals have had a significant advantage in organisation and demographic regarding declaration votes and pre-polls. The organisation is that it is drummed into booth workers to hand out statewide HTV’s to any who seem unsure, each booth receives 100 or more of these. The second feature is the elderly and generally well off nature of Liberal voters ensures they are either absent or voting from home. There has been a gentle change in the declaration votes over the last thirty years. Originally heavily Liberal, then slightly Liberal, now back to strongly Liberal. It is a measure of whether the retirees and elderly are happy with the Liberals.
The national press club on the ABC are remembering Matt Price just now
AussieGuru-Excellent summary. The twit is unlikely to pi#s off though. He enjoys his little hit and run tactics before he has his cocoa and gets tucked into bed by ‘mummy’.
I think it was a feature of the Thatcher years that the non-tory parties always achieved the higher percentage of the vote but remained powerless. You would have thought Blair/Brown would have changed FPP and they did look at doing some form of PR but then realised that the current boundaries privelege Labour at the moment and decided they would do nothing.
The Tories still need s sizeable swing to unseat Labour at the next election and are well on the way given the troubles Labour are having at the moment.
I think that Labor could bar an economic crash pick up seats in 2010 or a double dissolution before then peticularly in W.A. like Bracks did in 2002.
The Liberals obviously use their electoral funding to mail out the poastal vote form. Anyone here live in a Labor electorate, and received from their MHR the postal vote form?
Maybe this will change to Labor at the next election.
Also. at the pre-poll, no significant restrictions on the reason. So lots of people were pre-polling.
I also had the Labor HTVs for State/National, although no real need for them, about 6 enquiries, and that’s in a tourist area.
Elections since 1983 where the winning party had 51% TPP or less
Election year ALP Coalition
1987 50.8W 49.2
1990 49.1W 50.9
1998 51.1 48.9W
2001 49.0 51.0W
Tom a hell of a lot of Liberals voted for Labor, now if just a handful of those change their votes next time round Labor marginals will be brought into play, at least with the massive amount of seats under 2.5% this makes 2010 interesting.
Sorry that didn’t come out properly.
Elections since 1983 where the winning party had 51% TPP or less
1987 ALP 50.8%
1990 ALP 49.1%
1998 Lib/Nats 48.9%
2001 Lib/Nats 51%
Glen, have you gotten used to the sound of ‘Rudd Labor Government’ yet?
Tim @ 147
Going through the vote types, there is quite a wide disparity in how successful the libs were in harvesting the pre poll vote in particular. It would be interesting to know how much of this reflects on local organisations.
In most seats, the lib pre polls were well ahead of their ‘booth’ vote - i.e in Paterson Bob Baldwins booth vote was just over 50%, but on prepolls he was 58/42. Compare that to Robertson where the ALP pre poll was higher than their booth vote - the prepolls were not much higher in Macarthur and Dobell either.
It would be interesting to hear from any insiders who can shed more light on the differences between seats.
Yes, though ive not got used to having the Liberals on so little on the news, but we are in Opposition
just got to deal with it, it aint easy after being in power for almost 12 years but meh you got to roll with the punches ND.
Generic Person Says: “Lefty E, John Howard was no right wing nutter.”
Yes, Virginia, there is an Easter Bunny…
Cheer up Glen, once a few cases hit the courts, several Liberal will be in the news in the new year
I still can’t believe the Liberals’ primary vote is worse than Labor under Latham.
That’s a stunning achievement.
Dutton is looking safer each time i refresh the AEC election results close seats page.
He is pulling away and is ahead by 257 votes with 86.43% of the vote counted
Labor squeaking home in any of the seven or so ultra-marginals still being counted won’t affect the notional swing needed to lose in 2010.
We also need to factor in, on Labor’s side for 2010, the enormous incumbency benefit to flow to MPs especially sophomores, and to the executive government generally.
Let’s see what Labor really does with government advertising for example. (Which only backfired partly on the Libs, because the WC ads were over the top in number and focused on a negative for them, but even then, Labor’s lead on IR slipped over 2007 when the ads were less partisan or at least more clever than in 2005).
The Iemma Government is the worst Government in the country in my memory, and that includes the despised Howard outfit. Iemma himself is utterly devoid of vision, Watkins is a good campaigner and the rest are utterly incompetent and malicious. In my life I have only voted Liberal twice. The last time was March 2007 and March 2011 will make it 3.
The Iemma government is a cancer in the Labor party and it must be cut out before spreads and kills the good bits of the party.
Howard Hater (138) No one is ‘underestimating Rudd’. Indeed, he has a lot of goodwill at the moment. We know he can ‘talk the talk’. We are waiting to see if he can ‘walk the walk’. My guess is that global circumstances (mainly economic) mean harder times are ahead for the party in government in Australia. We can leave the assessment of who is going to win the next election until objective observers see how Mr. Rudd handles the inevitable hard times in the next 2 to 3 years.
Incumbency didnt save Stuart Henry or Richardson or Fawcett…
Geoff Robinson @ 140, the answer to your question is ‘No’, for two reasons: the South Australian experience has demonstrated that it doesn’t work, and the need to distribute each State separately makes it impossible at Federal level.
THE AUSTRALIAN
Telstra accused of rushing AWAs
By Denis Peters | November 28, 2007
TELSTRA is rushing to sign up thousands of staff to five-year individual work contracts before the new Labor government has time to abolish them, the public service union says.
Community and Public Sector Union (CPSU) national secretary Stephen Jones accused the national carrier of engaging in a cynical post-election move.
Telstra says there is no compulsion for staff to sign the Australian Workplace Agreements (AWAs).
AWA ombudsman takes on Donut King
November 28, 2007
AUSTRALIA’S Workplace Ombudsman is taking on a Donut King franchisee
November 28, 2007
AUSTRALIA’S Workplace Ombudsman is taking on a Donut King franchisee who allegedly tried to force an employee onto an Australian Workplace Agreement (AWA).
It is alleged the Donut King at Greensborough in Melbourne’s north applied duress to a 23-year-old female employee after the management decided to move staff off the National Fast Food Retail Award 2000 and onto AWAs.
The Ombudsman said Donut King cut the woman’s hours from 36.5 hours per week to 15 hours after she refused to accept the conditions offered under the AWA.
No wonder we’re so far behind in Queensland State wise, Flegg shoud have done a Gorton and voted to remove himself, 8 State MPs that is not a bad its shameful.
Howdy Doody rejects leadership of the National Agrarian Socialist Workers Party of Australia
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/mcgauran-rejects-nats-leadership/2007/11/28/1196036948421.html
No, but fortunately the voters saved us from them.
Showson:
Out of interest, have you added the Nationals and CLP vote to the Liberal tally to perform a fair comparison ?
Peter Lindasy in Herbert is just 44 votes behind the ALP with 15% left to count.
Andrew Laming is 21 votes behind the ALP with 15% left to count.
It’s a squeaker ladies and gents.
In Parramatta we received a postal voting application form from both major parties.
AB in Melbourne Ports we received postal voting forms from both parties too, if Labor didnt do it in some seats its their own fault, though im not complaining.
.
.
Collecting the driftwood after the ship has gone down.
Seeing debates about different electoral systems, as a general comment there is no electoral system that guarantees a perfect translation from voters will to seats in parliament. Not only that, but political parties are not dumb actors and will actively seek to exploit any distortion in the system that works to their own rational self interest.
Further, regardless of which system we debate, the closer you get to a 50/50 split between two parties, the greater the risk that a side receiving less than 50% of teh vote may win the majority of the seats. In Australian history, if the margin gets within 1%, it is a lottery. But above that, it is rare for the will of the majority to be denied.
So what is my point? Simply that I am not really bothered about debates about first past the post versus preferences and so on. In discussing any meaningful reform, that is not the key issue. The real reform issues are transparency, accountability, disclosure of funding sources, minimising the powers of encumbancy (media $, choice of timing), and lessening the politicisation of the public service. That is where I would like to see some action.
Instead of another republic referendum why not a Constitutional Convention to write a new constitution?
Plenty of countries have had many constitutions - a lot of the text doesn’t match what we actually do and we can insert human rights clauses like Germany that cannot be amended or removed.
130 Ron Brown
Howard supports anything that wins votes? Would that be the GST, Iraq War or Workchoice
Maybe you mean the guy who wants to be a social conservative?
People skills man claims underdog status: http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/im-the-underdog-abbott/2007/11/28/1196036951844.html
Laming was leading this morning. If he is now behind that means he is gone.
[People skills man claims underdog status: http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/im-the-underdog-abbott/2007/11/28/1196036951844.html
Bull$hit! He isn’t an under dog, he’s just a dog.
Jasmine we don’t need a bill of rights, our rights are protected by common law.
Rudd will save all those things, incl a Republic for his probable second term, he’ll be as conservative as possible in his first IHMO.
180
ShowsOn - Laming is behind by 21 votes with 15% left to count, it’s hardly over for Lamington.
Pancho@179
I read that Mad Monk article now I’m depressed.
“I’m here for the long haul. I regarded myself as a career politician ever since I entered parliament and that’s not changing.”
Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo………………………
George Williams, from http://evatt.org.au/publications/papers/165.html:
“Australia is now the only democratic nation without a national Bill of Rights. Indeed, some form of protection for and exception about basic rights is seen as an essential component of democratic governance around the world. I am not aware of any nation that has gained a new Constitution in the last two decades that has not included some form of bill of rights, nor am I aware of any democratic nation that has ever done away with its Bill of rights once it has been enacted.
Indeed, we now find ourselves in the strange position of supporting such instruments overseas but not in Australia. In 2004, Prime Minister John Howard stated that he “strongly supports” the “adoption of a new constitution in Iraq, including a Bill of Rights.” It is not clear why a Bill of Rights is appropriate for the people of Iraq but not for the people of the Australia. This is despite our recent history on matters ranging from the stolen generations through to the mandatory detention of asylum seekers to the banning of speech in the name of the wear of terror.”
Socrates - perhaps there should be some party list candidates elected to the lower house ie. elected in proportion to their party’s % of the national vote.
This might also have the attraction of encouraging non-political careerists into throwing their hat into the party ring as they would not have to campaign in a local electorate.
Something I haven’t seen much commentary on: the number of ALP voters who tactically voted Green (and preferenced ALP) to encourage the ALP to take more notice of the environment.
I and many people I know did this, in the knowledge that our real vote would go to Labor. I’m in Cunningham, where the Green’s Michael Organ (great name - he’s called locally “The Green Member”) was briefly in the Reps after a byelection in 2002. That was ALP voters sending a message to get rid of Crean.
This ALP-supporters-tactically-voting-Green phenomenon is very real, and is something that Nick Minchin (what a thoroughly nasty piece of work he is) ignores when he skites about the Lib’s primary vote being nearly as high as Labor’s.
And, BTW, loved Crikey’s description yesterday of Brendan Nelson as “not a real person., more like a photocopy of a real person” …
Glen 182
“Jasmine we don’t need a bill of rights, our rights are protected by common law.”
While I respect your views normally, this is utter rubbish. Common Law at best protects you against other citizens, it certainly doesn’t protect you from the government. Glen, have you ever read Edmund Burke, JS Mill or the other founders of Liberalism? If yes, you could not type that without wincing.
I think many Australians have never even read our constitution and do not realise how few rights they have. Most of those we do have are only implied after a few High Court cases, and could just as easily be wiped out by an act of parliament because they are not constitutionally protected. The regrettable anti-terror legislation, both ineffective and unjust, demonstrates this all too well. Indeed, many rights that were enshrined by enactments of British legislation after 1901 were Not enacted here once our legal systems becamse separated, so arguably an Australian citizen has far fewer rights at law than a British one does.
We badly need a better constitution, regardless of whether we become a republic or not. If you don’t believe me, just ask David Hicks. Sorry your not allowed to.
I never had any empathy for David Hicks Socrates, i don’t feel sorry or upset about the treatment of convicted terrorists.
If you want to see what a mess a Bill of Rights creates just ask the Canadians.
Socrates im sure if Rudd gets a second term, he may push for a Bill of Rights because some of the Labor States have said they want to make their own if the Feds don’t enshrine one in the constitution.
Glen Says: “I never had any empathy for David Hicks Socrates, i don’t feel sorry or upset about the treatment of convicted terrorists.”
Wow, another one to add to the list of idiot beliefs by Glen - and now you support torture. Just brilliant.
Glen: You do realise Victoria has a bill of rights don’t you?
Glen
The problem was how David Hicks was treated before he was convicted of anything. Or what about Haneef? Do you think he was a terrorist, or that his treatment is OK? The point is not the person who is the example; it is that our system permits such things. Read your history books. We have dealt with terrorists effectively in western countries going back to the 60s without such laws.
A bill of rights is only one of many solutions. I didn’t suggest one. MO our constitution simply doesn’t define the balance of power between individuals, courts and government very clearly. The only time it faced a crisis (1975) it failed. We are a stable country because of our circumstances and traditions based on British institutions. I certainly don’t think its because of our constitution.
George where did i say i supported torture???
Just because i don’t feel sorry for him doesn’t mean i don’t like certain methods being used period.
I used to back torture but ive gone off it in recent times, just because i don’t like torture doesn’t make me feel sorry for what happened to a traitor and a terrorist like David Hicks.
Glen, how do you respond to George Williams’ argument, partly above? Why should we not have some democratically arrived at guiding principles? These will not be laws set in stone, but ideas to protect and illuminate societal ideals.
Asanque - and the ACT
Glen
I advocate abolishing the 1901 constiution and writing a completely new one that reflects what our government actually does and is in touch with the twenty-first century.
Absolutely: the ALP primary vote needs to be gauged against the Greens starting to push strategic Greens 1 ALP 2 voting this time - and in fact, I bet it becomes bigger factor next time around.
My sense is the Greens are getting better at doing the things that work. Long way to go though.
I live(d) in a Lib marginal (Moreton). Hardgrave’s postal vote form was clearly at taxpayers expense. My dim recollection is that Labor’s may also have been, at least I assumed it came via some Senator’s office. I could be wrong, but I recall looking for the obvious ‘not produced at taxpayer’s expense’ tag.
Labor has swung back in the lead in Bowman, receiving about 51% of the postals at the moment.
How does ‘Ave it all’ justify his waste of oxygen?
On a lighter note, Janet Albrechtsen (Nazi lite) is in the AUStralian today…with another liteheaded delusional frankly retarded piece. How is this person with so many recalcitrant and racsist views a public figure?????? Time she was relegated to the Courier mail or the daily telegraph with the other repulsive trogs. She should run on the One Nation ticket. Read her delusions…and be afraid that a trog like this has national exposure and censure from a so called ‘newspaper’.
Does she remind anyone else of Geobels wife in the german fim ‘Downfall’??? Geez the similarities are stunning.
195
Pancho - while i know ya’ll are supporting it because you are progressives and you are in it for a good cause, protecting human rights but Bills of Rights can be messy all you have to do is look at Canada.
Glen says: “Rudd will save all those things, incl a Republic for his probable second term, he’ll be as conservative as possible in his first IHMO.”
It will be interesting to see how this (republic const. reform)plays out with Turnbull as part of the leadership.
Perhaps, if we are lucky, we will have have Federation PartII.
Jasmine
I agree but think the problems in our constitution go far deeper than its dated language. The US consititution is over 100 years older but is clearer, better written and based on a coherent political philosophy. (Of course, I know the US system has many flaws). Our constitution was written by lawyers, for lawyers. It has enough loopholes to drive a GST through it.
Hmm its it just me or is the ALP starting to claw back, ever so slightly, in Bowman?
Robertson still looks ok, and Solomon’s home for ALP - the rest are looking like Lib held marginals.
Are we expecting things to drift the other way again ie have absent votes (which I gather are less pro-lib) been counted yet?
I hope Laming loses in Bowman. Having the AFP under Keelty say there was not enough evidence to warrant a prosecution for misuse of his printing entitlements, after a prolonged investigation that was never made public, is hardly a ringing endorsement.
And if he was innocent, then he never got a chance to clear his name!
If McGauran doesn’t want the Nats leadership, who’s going to get it?
Truss is considered to be too old (there’s no generational change when the new leader is 60), so does that leave Kay Hull as the only viable candidate left?
Fancy that - the Nationals could be the first major political party to have a woman as its national leader…
I hope they dont waste Turnbull this time, they should put Abbot in and Bishop and Pyne (Howard lite) until 2013 when Turnbull can be pm. I might even vote for him…..naaaaa.
Glen: your arguments against a bill of rights is simply incoherent.
If the threshold for rejecting an idea because it is ‘messy’ and has had ‘problems’ elsewhere, then nothing would ever get done.
Lefty E, yes it looks like Bowman will be extremely close… cross your fingers on the absentees and provisionals which usually work in Labor’s favour and Laming will be out.
Swing Lowe, I’ve heard Kay Hull is getting the Nats leadership.
Swing Lowe
I don’t know much about Kay Hull, but surely Barnaby Joyce would at least be considered? He has a 3 digit IQ, and is young enough to be around to rebuild.
Glen - The Canadian Bill of Rights (1960) was not a mess. It was simply thought ineffective. It was bolstered in 1982 by a Charter of Rights and Freedoms. You are not presenting an argument, or outlining why you think Australia should be the only democratic state in the world without a bill of rights.
Pancho @ 121,
Very funny.
I reckon you could start up your own desk calendar series with all the hits and memories you have cached.
Seeing the Libs will probably be broke in 2010 they’ll need to to pull a few stunts to get publicity. Are we likely to see Turnbull in speedos trying to prove how energetic and young he is?
Asanque,
“A decent idea, but it would be hard to do so we won’t bother” is the essence of conservative philosophy!!!
RA and Asanque
You kow, if they had applied that logic to WorkChoices, they might still be in government! Good thing they are hypocritically inconsistent
GG - Good idea. I’ll call it ‘The Great Credibility Extractor’.
Socrates,
Can a Senator become leader of the Nats, since they already have representation in the House?
Whilst Barnaby is their best leader, unless they parachute him into a House seat (I’m thinking Wide Bay if Truss decides to up and quit), I find it unlikely that the Nats would elect him as their leader. That said, stranger things have happened (look at the Qld Libs, for example…)
Swing Lowe
Sorry, good point. I really don’t kow what the rules are. Party leadership is another of those concepts not mentioned by our wonderful constitution.
I might be proved wrong but I supsect the party leader is whoever the party says it’s leader is.
It would have to be the consitituion of the National Party that prohibits a Senator.
If the Libs want a show in 2011 maybe they could start standing up to this sort of behaviour:
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=230382
Lefty E: Herbert is looking good for a possible ALP gain, the one close seat in which postal vote counting has actually gone the ALP’s way, so far at least.
The leader of the National Party would also be Deputy Prime Minister when in government. The Deputy Prime Minister, by convention is a member of the House of Representatives.
Howard Hater, postal voting is also going Labor’s way in Bowman.
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Swing Lowe
Michael Organ got elected as Green in Cunningham by-election in 2005. He became the only Greens HOR MP. Surely he should not have become the leader of the greens?
John Gorton was the last Senator that became leader of the Liberals. But to do it, he had to move to the House of Reps and then won Government and the PM position.
Barnaby , would have to find a safe seat in the reps, but unlike Gorton could never be PM unless the Nats can improve their position over the Libs and combined they have the numbers to form Government.
this is not going to happen, so Barnaby, has no incentive to put it all on the line.
Oh, and Howard Hater, if you look at the AEC now it looks like the postals are now running the Libs way, it’s very tight.
Who really cares about the leader of the minority party within the opposition coalition? The seats the Nats lost this time will either stay in Lab hands or go to the Libs at the next election due to the 3 cornered race.
Actually at my nooth in Henley Brook, it was the opposite, the ALP Booth Captain had the statewide HTV cards and the libs had none, so the poor lib guy had to send absentee people to us for it
IF anyone has or hears of ANY leaks regarding Labors front bench between now and when it is officially announced, PLEASE share them
I will be out tomorrow from early and not returning until almost 3pm [Sydney]. I absolutely hate being out of the information loop 
Now Costello wont eat with JHo
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22836103-12377,00.html
Did Cossie ever get that private dinner with the Howards at Kirribilli? I know he was there recently with other ministers but what about a private dinner?
Regarding the swing required to for the ALP to lose in 2010 - won’t the new incumbents now experience the sitting member factor? thus making it harder the make the 1.7% swing in these seats.
GER @ 201,
Oh dear, that poor liddle Ann Coulter wanna be! Albrechtsen and Devine are the doppleganger evil twin sisters to the great Coulter, and even in abject defeat just cannot stop looking at their reflections in that cesspool of neoconservatism.
I guess the clock is now ticking on her ABC board position, so she better enjoy what’s left of it, because she won’t be getting any more crumbs from the government’s table for her able work under it!
Barnaby Joyce = National leader, God help everyone on earth
Barnaby Joyce….the man who gave JHo the majority in the senate……now an ALP hero….long live Barnaby!
Letter to George Bush.
After numerous rounds of “We don’t even know if Osama is still alive,” Osama himself decided to send George Bush a letter in his own handwriting to let him know he was still in the game.
Bush opened the letter and it contained a single line of Coded message:
370H SSV 0773H
Bush was baffled, so he e-mailed it to Condoleezza Rice. Condi and her aides had not a clue either, so they sent it to the FBI. No one could solve it at the FBI so it went to the CIA, then to NSA.
Eventually they asked Britain ’s MI-6 for help. Within a minute MI-6 cabled the White House with this reply:
“Tell the President he’s holding the message upside down.”
Barnaby actually wasn’t the person who gave Howard the majority in the Senate.
That honor goes to Russel Trood.
Well there seems to be two schools of thought re 2010/11.
One - that federal govts generally receive a swing against them after their first term and therefore it will be tight.
Two - that it will mirror the result that state ALP govts achieved in Vic, NSW and Qld after their first terms - ie total routs with huge swings to the govt.
I’ve posted previously in favour of scenario two and I continue to favour that outcome.
Mainly because everything that the Coalition campaigned on this time around won’t work in 3 years time (assuming the global economy doesn’t go belly up, or too hot either). The unions will have shown that they are not eceonomy destroyers, and the whole ‘we have the experience’ line will no longer apply. Rudd will occupy the centre leaving the opposition to chose between being radical or irrelevant - both losing positions.
I think the factor that will break the historical pattern is the (almost) merging of the two main parties into the centre of the political spectrum. There is just very little for a centrist voter to complain about with an at least half-competent, centrist new government.
Victorian Senate is a lose for the Greens. Ther just is not enough minor party votes to see them above the line.
The Green vote (7%) dropped from 2004
The Liberals have 2.73 Quotas, The ALP 2.96 Quotas and the Greens 0.71 Quotas
Mod (1) the ALP and Liberal Vote
ALP 96% LIB 73% Greens 71% of a Quota.. (Others 60%)
The Others 60% splits (28% (LIBS) 8.79% (ALP) 20.65%)
The ALP 96%plus 8.79% has a surplus of 5% Quota Even assuming 100% ALP surplus transfer to the Greens (Carried by the ALP ATL vote)..
The Liberal Party end up with 1.01 Quotas and the Greens left with only 0.96…The minor party and the ALP can not carry them. The below the line vote for teh Greens is lock in and accounted for on the above data I do not see a hugh below the line vote for the other minor parties making up the short fall.
The Greens are the wasted quota having failed to obtain the 8.5% threshold. They were better off with David Risstrom. WHo poled 1% more then Di Natali.
For those who missed it, here’s a snippet from Miranda Devine’s dribble from the SMH the day after the election. She was, of course, ‘on hand’, at the Wentworth hotel to see the Great Leader go down:
Anthony Baume, the former Liberal member for Macarthur, had spent the day in Leumeah helping Pat Farmer’s campaign in the south-western Sydney seat, won in 1996 from Labor as a “Howard ” prize.
“Pat’s done well to resist as well as he can,” said Baume, with Farmer looking a fairly good thing to hang on to his seat.
Baume said Macarthur is really more a bellwether seat than Eden-Monaro, which star recruit Mike Kelley took for Labor from Gary Nairn.
Baume’s theory is that Howard has worked himself out of a job. The aspirationals who voted for him in 1996 and remained loyal through four elections “have achieved the great bulk of what they aspired to,” he said.
But then they wanted more, And “if you don’t get three cars in your garage rather than two, you’re p…ed off with someone”.
Dame Leonie Kramer agreed. “Once you start aspiring you never stop,” she said.
…there’s more if you can stomach it:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/night-of-blue-believers/2007/11/24/1195753380797.html
So remember these people, as they one by one, crawl back under the rocks from whence they came, because they are truly venemous. Never forget they are there, brooding and breeding, and waiting to come out and bite us should we ever become even half as hideous as them.
Regarding Turnbull, I think it could end up being a disaster for the Liberals. For now, he is their best option, and he will be made leader, because the party is desperate and he has the greatest public appeal.
But as he tries to shift the party to the Left, he will meet a lot of resistance. Already we are seeing splits emerging regarding the party’s support of WorkChoices. And the same thing will happen when Rudd and Labor start proposing anything that looks even mildly socially progressive. The Liberals will be VERY easy to wedge. Basically, the Abbott forces will want to push to the Right, along with the likes of Alex Hawke and others, while the Turnbull forces will want to shift Left.
And then with some of the state organisations filled to the bream with religious crazies and other extremists, Turnbull will have a massive task ahead of him to create any sense of unity. In fact, he could end up being a leader with minority rather than majority support behind him, which will be very destabilising.
John @ 239
I tend to agree. Not because of anything to do with past state governments but because of the other reasons you put forward. I think Rudd will be cautious, but will also set the agenda for the next 3 years, making it very hard for the Opposition to put together a strong argument for election in 2010/11.
Wouldn’t it be funny if the Turnbull- Barnaby team won the next election (obviously not the 99.8% of ALP supporters here) and Barnaby loses his senate seat to the Liberals
Now wouldn’t that be a great victory speech
242
Noocat - so long as Malcolm does well in the polls as Rudd did he shouldnt find it hard to take on the far right of the Libs.
If anything should be a guide it was Rudd’s rise to power, that’s how Malcolm should do it and i think he can.
@226 STAR Says:
Biggles became PM on 10th January 1969. He resigned as a Senator on 1st February 1969. He was elected as member for Higgins just over three weeks later. Between 1 February and 24 February he was a member of neither house of parliament.
Barnaby is no different then Brian H in Tasmania. FF vote will see the Liberals win a 3rd spot in Victoria. There is not enough postal votes in the system or minor party votes. There was a consolidation of the vote to the main players.
All Minor parties have registered a lower voter support. (As we had been predicting)
At he next election Labor will use Workchoices in the same way the Libs used 17%. We know which was more potent don’t we? It will take a long time for the coalition to live that one down.
Make that “the” not “he”.
Gary Bruce WC was only in for 2 years, Labor’s High interest rates were around for 13 years…oh and if he does do that we’ll show him complaining about the Libs doing the mother of all scare campaigns so then Rudd = hypocrite.
Glen, it’s true that Labor had to unite its various factions in order to win and this required many compromises. But I think the Liberal Party will find it much harder to do this. The problem with those coming from the religious Right, such as Abbott, Hawke, and many others, is that their beliefs, especially on the social front, are inflexible.
I think the Liberal Party is going to find it very tough to form a neat consensus of the kind that Labor did prior to the recent election. There will be an ongoing tension between trying to look and sound publicly appealing (aka Turnbull) versus sticking to core beliefs and therefore policy inclinations. This spells a great deal of future friction.
Rudd will pick up on this, and although I don’t expect him to employ wedge politics anywhere near to the extent that Howard did, it will all too easy to wedge the Liberals and create disunity. In fact, it could just happen inadvertently.
I expect the Howard years will be a past memory by the time the next election is called. So, predictions on the validity of their current campaign projected into the next campaign are pretty pointless given that new issues will no doubt have arisen by then. I would expect it will stay a close election given the statistical improbability of a wide margin federally on TPP terms. No prediction as to the winner although I beleive it will take a full 3 years for Labor to implement its platform promises (at least!)
William,
I’m not really sure if I fully agree with this. If you look at the specifics of the elections in question it looks a bit different.
In 1975 Fraser’s TPP was 55.7%. That’s a huge number and unsustainable for too long. So 1977 was bound to go down no matter what.
In 1984 Hawke called an early election which peeved off a lot of people and as I remember it, it was a terrible campaign. In the debate between between Hawke and Peacock, Bob appeared disinterested and tired. He also made the mistake of allowing a long campaign.
In 1998 Howard was fighting for the GST so it really wasn’t a normal election. Without the GST around his neck Howard may very well have done better.
I’m not saying Rudd will increase his vote, just that you need to look at the details to see if he has a chance or not.
Yes Glen but wait until Rudd releases the data about WC that Shrek wouldn’t.
Dream on all of you who think the next opposition leader (whomever he or she is) will win the next election or ever become PM for that matter. One thing this blog has taught me is that history is a powerful predictor. I can’t recall an opposition leader winning who was appointed after an electoral defeat federally.
If Turnbull is the best the Tories have they shouldn’t waste him now. I would argue that Turnbull will struggle, I already love his me tooism to rudd’s Labor with W/choices, sorry, Kyoto. why would an elctorate want to elect Rudd lite!!!
god its good to laugh at the hopeless joke that is the Tories, federally shambolic then as I live in Qld the local crowd are dead set comedy hour!
MelbCity I’m pleased to note that I predicted all along that the minor party vote would drop and that the Senate split would be three-three everywhere except Tas and probably WA. That prediction was made before Xenophon jumped in the race, electing himself and a Green with his surplus, so I am claiming I was broadly correct. I agree that di Natale is not likely to get up. I haven’t heard anything recently about Tucker’s prospects in ACT as the BTL vote comes in. Any opinions?
Also, any news on Tuckey and O’Connor? Are the Greens preferences going to the Nats?
Then he’ll have to release how many people lost their jobs because Rudd brought back unfair dismissals.
All this talk about wasting leaders is bull butter.
The Libs got bitch slapped on Saturday, we need a good leader and a fresh one who’s not tainted by the Howard years in anyway.
If we wait until 2010 before we put in Malcolm, he’ll be 56 by the time he’s leader and by 2013 he’ll be 59 almost 60, he’ll be too old by then. That’s why we need Turnbull and Bishop for 2010 and 2013 to give us a shot if we don’t we’ll be out for a long time to come.
Of course he won’t Glen, we all know about selective release of data and the spinning of said data by now.
Don’t be surprised if they come up with a new and more accurate figure for unemployment too.
Its four days after the 2007 election bit early for 2010 predictions.
Only 2 things are certain:
1) The state of the economy will be a factor ( and who knows what that will be in 2010)
2) And; The decisions or decisions not taken by the Government in the next 12-18 months
will be decisive. ie governments lose elections so to a large degree what the Turnbully does will not matter its what the government does that matters.
I would not be surprised if KR governs from the centre with a view to a thumping win in 2010.
Ave it 07,
Had the feared but unlikely Japanese invasion of Australia occurred, it would certainly have taken them a lot longer then two days to occupy the country. In fact, they probably would never have been able to do it. In any case, the first Japanese defeat in the Second World War was at the hands of Australian troops in New Guinea; and the first German defeat was partly at the hands of Australian troops in North Africa. Then we can look at the First World War and the significant contribution to warfare by the Australian Lieutenant General (later General) John Monash, who successfully integrated infantry with armour to push back the German lines.
You have a government elected with not much more than 30 per cent of the vote because of your first past the post system. Preferential voting is much more democratic, as is having polling day at the weekend, as is compulsory voting, as is an elected Upper House, particularly one elected by STV, the system now applied in Scotland and Northern Ireland, as is federalism (though the UK is slowly moving in that direction).
Wow Dave Tollner is now just 427 votes behind in Solomon with 19% still to count, he could scrape in by a whisker, looks like the postals are favouring him…
I think that if the Libs want Turnbull he’ll have to go in now. He doesn’t seem the type to hang about for 6 years on the opposition benches before having a crack. Libs will have to ask whether they want Turnbull for 2010 or not at all.
Solomon is now in the doubtful category with Labor now on 50.47 2PP. Postal votes running Tollner’s way 59:41.
Glen @ 258, Turnbull if elected now won’t last after a 2010 defeat and it will be a defeat especailly if Turnbull’s strategy is Rudd’s me tooism (the Tories are too sheel shocked to do anything else). Labor has the strategic high ground now by virtue of office, look how poorly Beasley went trying to ape Howard early on.
Exactly Edward St John, I think the Liberal Party will really need to get used to being virtually irrelevant, not being able to draw on the resources of departments for policy formation and receiving a lot less attention from the media.
After, perhaps an initial surge of interest by any new leadership it’ll be all hard slog from there. It’s possible they could win, but I think parties often underestimate how much harder it is in Opposition.
Solomon is just updated - Tickner has picked up 0.5% swing and the seat is now in the AEC’s official “close seat” category
Tollner is coming in fast from behind yeeeehaaaa (redneck voice).
The NSW hard-right Libs wont give up their position without a bloody fight; Bishop is trying to grandstand for the sake of show in WA and, the rest are trying to accept reality and build some credibility.
Don’t under estimate how insideous the NSW right are, some would rather stay out of power than give up their control. There is a whole lot of bitching to look forward to.
Hopefully the Labor party factions are smart enough to keep their problems behind the scenes.
The easiest way to make money in Australia over the last 11 years has been to borrow at half the Australian rate form OS, and lend it to Australians at blown out interest rates. If you think Australia had had low interest rates you’ve been whacking your head againt a wall.
Kina just how many of the so called ‘NSW Right’ have seats in Parliament after the 2007 election???
Queensland, Victoria, SA and WA + NT (should Tollner hang on) will cast ballots too i hardly think the socalled NSW Right will have much influence after the leadership ballot.
Bishop will get in as deputy, im not disappointed a Victorian wont be in a leadership position we’ve not got top class talent as in other states.
ESJ. Me thinks your on to something!!
I love it when Tories hold out for false hope. yes the postals have favoured you but the absent votes will not be as good as they are cast on polling day and take full account for the whole campaign (Kellygate in Lindsay for instance). Absents are often cast in metro areas in different seats by workers who this time will be voting against W/choices.
Yeah, look how lucky we are in SA with Chris Pyne and Andrew Southcott.
Bishop, Pyne or Robb. Mmm, the phrase “embarrassment of riches” springs to mind.
The skanky ho in the Oz (now to be known as the National Apologist or The N/A) on one of Howards legacies:
“Western values and multiculturalism could be discussed among rational people of differing opinions.”
Much like Cronulla in 2005? I’m sure at certain points during any given day all those involved are capable of being rational.
Kina @ 269 -
The housecleaning of the Liberal party begins in NSW, and that’s one reason why I reckon Malcolm will get the top job. It’s now fairly conclusive from the tracking polls that the Jackie Kelly stunt in the last week of the election cost the Government that little extra support which would have made this election almost too close to call. This means that the web Libs now have a target, and a reason to go in and razor out all of the Right Libs - with prejudice.
If they can do that - with Barry O’Farrell’s generous help, of course, they might just win the next NSW State election - and keep their campaign together for the next Federal election, whenever that might be.
Boll u attack our talent but if hypothetically Rudd lost and he resigned and then Julia Gillard said she didnt want to be Opposition leader who would Labor have, Swan LOL?
The SA Liberals now consist of the lame duck Downer, the oleaginous Pyne, two useless backbenchers (Southcott and Secker) and one newbie (Ramsey). In the Senate they have Minchin, who is nasty but at least competent, and three newbies. Minhcin might now be tempted to neck Secker and move downstairs.
ESJ 260
Actually I agree with almost every word. For both economic and political reasons, KR would be prudent to just deliver his major promises (Kyoto, Education, Workchoices) and budget as though a recession may be coming. If it doesn’t, he’s been conservative as promised. If it does, he can blame the Libs previous over spending.
Glen,
Tony Burke.
Adam, I’ve always thought there would be a possibility that Downer could step aside for Minchin. As horrible as he is he’s a smooth political operator and I think he’d be a far better choice than Turnbull (politically).
Hmm. Abbott just pulled out.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/abbott-pulls-out/2007/11/28/1196036951844.html
LOL that’s one person but we have 3 potential candidates for the leadership and three for deputy and yet the Laborites say we are without any talent HA!
Nick will jump at the opportunity for Mayo LTEP and Adam and after 1.5 years or so Downer will be gone. Nick doesnt need to neck Secker he just has to wait for Alexander.
283
Marko - AHAHAHAHAH so much for the theories of the NSW Right having any power lol!
Abbott was a dingbat to think he could be our leader what a fool!
283 - oh no! Where is his sense of comedy? Warms the crowd up with his ‘people skills’, then this? What a tease.
Too bad Pancho your ‘dream’ team of Abbott and Robb wont be so, depends if Abbotts supporters back Nelson now?
Which begs the question, why didn’t they do this behind closed doors?
Is Abbott doing the rhythm method? Sorry, but ‘Abbott just pulled out’ needed a Catholic joke.
Very Mal Meninga of you Tony.
Glen, after 11 or so years in government you would expect some cream to have risen to the top.
Will - call of the day, call of the day mate!
285 - Glen
It’s worse. the NSW Uglies have no power, but they stack the branches. so they’ve effectively hamstrung the party.
Glen: Looks like Turnbull is getting up. If he does, the Libs may as well be the ALP, as Turnbull is advocating all their policies.
Good riddance to Howard conservatism.
Will - Some jokes write themselves. Anything I added (and I considered it) would have been gilding the lily.
Pancho, probably because Turnbull came out publicly on Sunday, so they all had to do it. Also by coming out they are deflecting some of the coverage on Mr Rudd.
When was the last time the ALP leader was more (socially) conservative than the Liberal leader?
If it’s Rudd vs Turnbull it’s a close call.
Asanque, more to the point Rudd has made the ALP into the Liberal Party.
On Abbott pulling out: Very disappointing. This means that the Liberal Party leadership contest will be between two moderates, Turnbull and Nelson. After more than 12 years of Howard, the Liberal Party will no longer have truly Conservative leadership. Instead, we have got Labor lite!
A sad day for the nation. Bah, humbug!
Glen - Does that mean you’re joining the ALP now?
“im not disappointed a Victorian wont be in a leadership position”
But Glenister the Deputy PM is from Vic albeit via SA.
Flynn now too close on AEC but ALP still looks most likely. Looking at the breakdown of declaration numbers issued I reckon that the ALP is looking a chance in Bowman, Robertson and Swan, with Dickson going either way within a bees d@@k.
Alright! Let’s have a race to the left (while remaining economically conservative of course).
If it is Turnbull and Rudd, what will the so-called culture warriors spend their time doing?
Yes, the ALP really need to do something about their postals for the next election. They’re getting absolutely killed on them. 70% to the Nats in Flynn? Ouch.
“Nostradamus Says:
November 23rd, 2007 at 4:12 pm
Denial - is that all you leftards can manage?”
Marko, id be more likely to if Abbott was our leader anyway im centre-right.
Haha Al but i meant the Liberal leadership sorry for the confusion.
Don’t worry Nostro if we get in we’ll just change it all like Labor
Actually if Julie Bishop gets the deputy’s job that will mean we will have female deputies from both liberal and labor who were educated in South Australia. (ie Bishop SA-WA and Gillard SA-VIC).
Pancho @ 302 -
Writing bitchy letters to Quadrant.
2% gain on 1 day in Flynn Is Flynn over?
earlier today we were saying Flynn was the “lose government” seat for Rudd.
Of course Marko. Under the stewardship of that intellectual genius Keith Windschuttle now I believe?
Well we’re doing pretty good on postals - the question is, is it well enough to turn the election around? With about 15% of the vote left to count, we may well be able to.
Hussar for Postals and Absentee votes Hussar!!!
The Tories could pick up a further 8 seats wowsa! But that is best case Scenario.
Why are the AEC so slack in Robertson, they’ve been on 79% counted for 2 days now WTF?
That’s pretty good Nostrils.
My #310 post was serious!
Glen the word you want is “huzzah”. A hussar was a kind of cavalry soldier.
yeah I think it’s a definate possibility the Nats could win Flynn. If the rest of the postals break in the same way they should be about 509 votes in front, and I wouldn’t bet on the absentees breaking well for Labor.
Definite seat count down to 80 seats for the ALP.
Glen: If the ALP are the Liberals, then why did you vote for Howard?
Because Howard made the Liberals into the neoconservative party.
Yes but that’s what i meant, our MPs are like hussars galloping towards a possible victory!
Glenn Churchill for Nats Leader!
Because the Liberals are the original centre-right party, why vote for a wannabe Party?
Galloping towards Sitting Bull
Howard Hater,
Only 739 votes in Robertson, lets hope a lot of those conservative Central Coast retirees did their civic duty and filled out their postal vote forms.
Antony has ALP seats down to 79 with a predicted 85.
Wow how many marginals will there be for 2010, so many marginals so much pork!
which no doubt will get loving attention from the government Glen.
In about a week, Howard will return triumphantly to Canberra after stealing the election on postals!
I am in a marginal, I want 3 day weekends and a themepark in my electorate
Good luck with that Nostradamus.
Leave the conservative ‘wanking contest’ for the parliamentary Liberal Party boys!
Abbott has announced he’s out of the race
More like………….in about a week, Howard will return triumphantly to Canberra and go “postal”
Nostradamus …. you are like ….. Nostradamus ….. raving lunitics who occassionaly gets 3 words correct in a row
If this landslide gets much smaller it will have headlines “Ruddslide: Labor claims minority government”
#298
Not to worry, Nostradamus. BTW it’s good to see you’re back.
You should be happy that the Lefties / “moderates” are going to get the leadership at this stage. They’ll probably get burned next election and a rightwinger will be there to pick up the pieces. Abbott (or even Minchin) may be back.
#289
I wonder how tolerant others on this blog would be if I made a “Moslem joke”?
Hey if we can make catholic jokes we can make Islamic jokes, its a free country for god’s sake!
A-C, as an aside to a tangent, I think ‘muslim’ is the accepted spelling these days. I haven’t seen ‘moslem’ for about a decade or so.
Spelling Moslem “Muslim” is yet another product of political correctness, it is like the Chinese forcing us to spell Peking “Beijing” and Canton “Guangzhou”. They certainly don’t call Moscow “Moskva”. Double standards and hypocrisy galore!
Ruddslide: 2 days after swearing in his govenment, Rudd found himself sliding out of the lodge
LTEP,
In Flynn, a lot of the postals will be farmers on relatively remote properties. Not many votes for Labor, there I suspect.
You have to feel sorry for the poor voters in Robertson. There they were faced with the choice of Useless Jim and the Loathsome ‘linda.
I don’t think it’s political, just listening to the pronunciation that people themselves use and trying to adapt it as best we can in English. General pronunciation, as far as I can tell, is ‘muss-lim’.
Btw, It doesn’t bother me at all if you say or write moslem, you just seem silly.
Nostradamus sees “political Ccorrectness” everywhere. Tory conspiracy mindset.
298 - Maybe you could start voting for the Citizens Electoral Council candidates?
You may enjoy reading some of their esteemed publications like - “Children of Satan III - The Sexual congress for Cultural Fascism”
PS Im not joking - thats really the name of a current pamphlet!
Extreme enough for you?
http://www.cecaust.com.au/main.asp?sub=pubs&id=publications.htm
ESJ - have you just got down to the library to use the public terminals. That’s old news about Robertson - “Updated: 27/11/2007 8:36:18 PM”
At our Booth in Chisholm, we had at least 10 informal votes where they’d voted for Labor but had not put a number in the box for the CEC, i wasn’t complaining lol
ESJ - by the way I agree with you… Robertson will stay with the Liberals. Which will be good since it will mean that we will have seen the last of La Neal and ALP might be minded o put up a half way decent candidate the next time around.
Glenister - one useful electoral reform could be that so long as the first two preferences are clear then the ballot should be counted as formal.
Glen - so long as all the other boxes were numbered that’s a valid vote for the ALP!!!
Actually no RA all the boxes need to be filled or it is invalid/informal.
The ALP scrutineers were pissed off about that lol.
Unless it’s different state by state that’s not true.
If all bar one are numbered the vote is formal in NSW.
Albert Ross or we could just ban the CEC from running in elections, either way?
Nostrodamus: you are living in fairy land if you think the Liberals can still win the election. Oh, I forgot, you are a prized wanker!
Labor back ahead in Bowman, by 26 votes.
The AEC agrees with me
Note that if a House of Representatives ballot paper has all squares numbered but one then it is assumed that the unmarked square constitutes the last preference and the ballot paper will be deemed formal.
Glen: the sad truth is most informal votes are usually attempted Labor ones.
Some people just can’t handle numbering every square on a ballot paper.
Of the 9 in doubt seats I wouldn’t count of any of them being won by Labor unless someone’s seeing something I’m not.
The AEC set out that ballots require all boxes to be numbers as shown on the ballot paper if the ballot paper has not been properly filled out the vote in informal.
Does anyone else know why Turnbull’s second name is Bligh? I do it relates to the rum rebellion.
Turnbull a self man man, bollocks. He is landed gentry.
There would still be overseas votes to come in, which would Labor, I assume, particularly those from the UK.
LETP the only thing going for the Tories is they are doing well on postals but this doesnt assure victory in any of these seats, still it could be worse.
I can imagine Glen as the ruthless Liberal scrutineer, throwing away all those Labor votes LOL
From the AEC website:
Note that if a House of Representatives ballot paper has all squares numbered but one then it is assumed that the unmarked square constitutes the last preference and the ballot paper will be deemed formal.
The AEC agrees with me
It’s a little bit down the page, about 3/4, and below the initial screen on most monitiors but it’s there.
All bar one is formal.
Oh well, a majority of 10 is OK, about what I predicted!
From Rates Analysts link:
“Note that if a House of Representatives ballot paper has all squares numbered but one then it is assumed that the unmarked square constitutes the last preference and the ballot paper will be deemed formal.”
He is a descendent of Governor Bligh on his mother’s side. He is thus a distant cousin of Qld Premier Anna Bligh.
Postal votes running at 70/30 to the Nats in Flynn and 80/20 in Maranoa and 80/20 to Bob Katter in Kennedy is beyond belief. If the Nats steal Flynn on postals their rorting of postal votes will be exposed once and for all.
I believe Turnbull is a decendent of Bligh.
Hence the name. It was in a book I read recently but it was on a 24 hour flight and my brain got gooey.
Yes, as the ALP seats tally drifts back towards 80, my prediction is becoming more accurate. Naturally I’d rather be wrong.
Well Adam tell that to the AEC RO who deemed those ballots informal. Meh either way im sleeping easy tonight
RA, how hard is it to put a number in for the CEC meh it doesnt matter anyway Chisholm is fairly safe for Labor atm.
Ruthless Liberal scrutineer ha, well i did get a vote for the Greens thrown out because they’d put a 7 in and we only had 6 candidates lol
Election after election, Labor loses these seats on postal votes! Sorry to say the Conservatives are much better at the caper! What could have been a decent majority for Rudd is being whittled away, all because of the inepitude of the ALP in some of these seats.
RA, obviously you were correct though from what i was told scrutineering that that was an informal vote, well im all the wiser now
I thought the general idea was that if the intention was clear the vote was counted. Therefore if it went 1 2 3 4 5 7 you’d count that vote as valid.
For eg, I got in my letterbox a postal vote application form from Ruddock, nothing from Labor: seems like this was typical in many places.
Glen if I’d been scrutineering in Ports as I usually do we might actually have met. Wot a scary thought. Good thing I was posted to a distant suburb (where we had an 11% swing - the Lib scrute left in disgust halfway through.)
Yes Howard Hater, I had the same thing and I live in Eden Monaro, a marginal seat.
But the bloke had missed a 2 in there as well that’s how the voter did a 7.
I know that 1 2 4 5 is invalid (no 3)
I know that 1 2 3 [ ] is valid (blanks are allowed)
Not sure about 1 2 3 5 though…. The intent is pretty clear, however.
Howard Hater
Overseas votes are 2 types
a. back packers tends to vote Labor, if they remember to go to an embassy to vote
b. business types working in London, HK and NY etc tends to vote the coalition
LTEP: just as well Mike Kelly is far enough ahead not for it to matter!
When I voted at Australia House in 2004 there were loads of suits voting.
Rates Analyst
I agree their intent is pretty clear …… they can’t count and need to go back to school
The Turnbull family was a backer of Governor Bligh. It support the first born male child has always had Bligh as a second name.
2 years till the next mutiny?
It will be very interesting to have a forensic examination of who the postal voters in Flynn are. The ALP resourced and ran a postal vote campaign in Flynn, the Nats have spent 30 years building a pool of phantoms. You know work for a year on a property out west you move on but your vote doesn’t. The AEC is illequipped to deal with this longstanding NPA rort.
In fact I think I may have received two applications in the mail from Nairn.
Ooops In support.
372
Adam - ha well i was in Chisholm where were you?
Where did you vote, i went to the Alfred i suppose you’re out St. Kilda way?
The Greens scrutineer kept having ago at us calling us environmental terrorists, we took a mobile phone video of the Labor and Greens HTV people at our booth as they were within the 6 meters and the Greens lady asked if we were going to send it to ASIO, hilarious stuff.
Nostradamus at 335
One of the traditional tenets of Western culture is civilised politeness. If people want to be described by one term rather than another, it is polite to accede.
This has nothing to do with political correctness.
Your point about the Chinese names is even more poorly informed. For example. the characters for Beijing have been exactly the same for over three or four millennia! “Beijing” is a lot closer to modern Chinese pronunciation than “Peking”, “Pekin”, or “Peiping”, all of which from time to time have been used in English.
Now I know why the Nationals refused to concede Flynn!
Albert Ross,
There could be lots of “reasons” the Robertson seat count hasnt been updated since 20.49 yesterday evening.
Generally,
What will we do once the undecideds are settled and the ministry and shadows are announced, I think it is at least 2 years until an election somewhere isnt it?
I wonder if it narrows anymore will the myth of this election be that it was Lindsay pamphlets wot won it?
LOL My prediction of 79 seats is starting to look very good!
William, do I get a prize?
Green HTV cards
I am just flabbergasted, how many trees did they killed to create those HTV, they better be using recycle paper
What a bunch of hypocrates
Glad to see the Group I “Anarchists” in the Vic Senate attracted a higher vote than either of the socialist groupings.
Actually ours were more environmentally friendly we gave them hell about it lol!
Yes dovif, they are recycled. I think that’s pretty obvious.
Given Given Labor’s some 700,000 vote lead, I doubt the Lindsay pamphlets had anything other than a negligible affect on the outcome.
That being said, Jackie Kelly is still a moron.
Democratic primary starts first week of January.
HAHAHAHHAH Tony Abbott pulls out of the leadership race, because he couldn’t guarantee he would make it to the party room on time.
Well A-C if Newspoll was correct and it was 52-48 in the middle of last week and momentum stopped and reversed by 1% it could have been significant not in itself but in stopping momentum?
Take 1% of the swing and the election could have been anybodys?
Having said that I think in hindsight it was Labor’s year - everything went wrong for JWH and “events” like the pamphlets tend to fit the narrative in retrospect. Much like the forged letters in 1996 - although I recall PJK did use them as an excuse for losing.
Yep the postals are going rather badly. No point denying that.
However, I am noticing a slowing in the -ve trend in certain seats.
Can someone authoritatively inform us what order the various vote types are counted in? Again, it does make sense that absent votes would be better for ALP than postals.
Or is it seat by seat? With no regular pattern?
And finally yes, clearly the ALP needs to GET ACT TOGETHER on postals!
True ShowsON,
But I think the US and the UK elections are foregone conclusions?
Substitute Brown for Howard in the UK and Hilary is on the way to a coronation (or restoration) depending on your view.
Although the first Tuesday in November every fourth year is such an unproductive day for me - watching the results come in.
Are you a horse-racing fan ESJ?
The US elections are the Tuesday after the first Monday and so are, every so often, the second Tuesday of November.
That was un-called for. My apologies.
Discussing scrutineering invokes the logic part of my brain a little too much.
Turnbull will prevail tomorrow (prob unanimously).
All this (humourous) talk of Labor not gaining enough seats to form govt has opened up some possibilities for a surprised Prime Minister Turnbull.
What would he then do with Costello and Howard (if Howard retains Bennelong)?
The Ministries of Gutlessness (or Courage) and Deceit (or Truth) respectively could be created especially for these two outstanding candidates.
Lol Rates Analyst
Trent Lott annouced he is not re-contesting in Mighty Miss (so his seat goes up in 2010 I think?)
Suggests he thinks the Republicans are going to get a thumping Nov next year. It seems the wheel turns worldwide.
I’d like to imagine this site will at least split 3 ways instead of 2 for the US season, Obama supporters, Hillary supporters, Horrible Horrible Republican candidate supporters.
This late counting is getting a bit worrying, now only three seats in reserve with nearly 20% of vote to be counted. Only 800 vote margin on Corangamite, 100 in Bass, 1800 in Hasluck, 1900 in Braddon. I reckon nealry all of the present ‘close’ seats on the AEC list are going to the coalition.
Am i being too paranoid?
I don’t understand how the ABC can predict 85 seats for the ALP… which 6 doubtful seats do they predict the ALP will win out of the 9?
Election after election, Labor loses these seats on postal votes! Sorry to say the Conservatives are much better at the caper! What could have been a decent majority for Rudd is being whittled away, all because of the inepitude of the ALP in some of these seats.
You’re right. I rang Garrett’s office looking for one for my old man. It never arrived. I wonder how many times that happened?
I wouldnt be running the bath water and opening the veins just yet seajay.
seajay: No you aren’t paranoid. I said yesterday almost all the close seats will go coalition, and that’s what’s going to happen.
Well Seajay it looks like the ALP have lengthened their lead slightly in Robertson to 803 votes, after 81.57%.
Yes, they’ve taken Robertson out of the ‘close seats’ category again.
Yeah but they’ve put Solomon and Flynn back in the close seat category, ill trade that lol
BTW I don’t think its horrible to support Rudy Giuliani he’s a moderate Republican.
Roy Orbison: It’s nothing to do with Labor ineptitude. It’s demographic.
Most farmers, businessman, overseas holiday goers etc are conservative voters.
The Greens also benefit from the backpacker vote. Bob Brown amusingly said “bushwalker” vote on election night - but meant backpacker.
I’m defintiely barracking for Giuliani, since McCain seems to have no chance.
Flynn is lengthening again also now that pre-polls are being counted - seems the Postals were the anomoly there… 70% TPP Lib.
The Speaker, it is also to do with Labor ineptitude. I’ve heard a few stories about problems with Labor’s postal application campaigns and have heard a few people say they didn’t receive one in the mail.
And Romney is a Mormon.
Go RUDY!
Its just like over here, the Republicans know in the US if they don’t put a moderate in they’ve got no chance in 08 likewise we tories have to put a moderate in if we’re going to be electable atm.
The “close” reference in the AEC’s VTR is automatic when there is less that 1% in it at a given time. This isn’t discretionary.
Giuliani the crossdresser why not seeing as you have Chucklenuts there already
Oh, I didn’t mean any Republican candidate specifically, I think they are uniformly horrible. The Republican debates have been an awe inspiring crazyfest. Part of me wants a republican to win again just to see what transpires for next 4-8 years.
And I’m not too worried about these close seats, I’d traid all but for 78 of them if it meant that the greens got up in Vic, the excess seats aren’t much more than bragging rights if a majority can be formed.
Even so he’s still better than Bil i mean Hillary Clinton.
RW he did it for charity, can’t people do stuff for charity or a good cause and not get trashed for it.
Nico, there are some seats with less than 1% that aren’t listed in the ‘close seats’ category.
Let’s not get bogged down in this right now, but if you think that Giuliani is a moderate you haven’t been paying attention.
My preferred Republican would be Ron Paul. There is a lot of stuff he says that I don’t agree with, but he is constitutionally superb and bang on the money in foreign policy.
which seats LTEP?
Dangerous he’s a moderate compared to Thompson and Romney.
Ron Paul should be a Democrat.
Which ones LTEP?
Giuliani has had a lot of making up to the Christians in the US, after the few times he has done drag.
I also doubt he would do well outside of NY. I lived in the USA for 3 years (moved there just before 9/11), not so popular outside of NYC really. Though if he could win NY for the EC then that would definitely tip him over to win.
424 - god help this site if the RP nutjobs find it. And I won’t use his name in case in their random googling it helps them to find it.
poor Howard,
his Bennelong seat is lost out-right, not even a close seat
good riddance to Howard
The close seats cutoff is 0.5%, I think you’ll find.
Yes sorry, misread. .5 either way would be a gap of 1%
Matt D - a 0.5% lead = a 1% differential. That was what I meant. Apologies is unclear.
“if” unclear*
Mr Speaker,
It’s got everything to do with it when the paperwork doesn’t arrive and a vote is wasted. As this one was. Do you think this was the only place it happened?
Then again, hardly surprising as I am trying to deal with a lazy slob called Kristina Keneally in the equivalent State Government seat. You can see Iemma getting rolled a mile off with the galoots that the ALP employs in the back rooms.
How do they calculate their predictions on the abc site? Is it by subtracting the general swing from the old postal/prepoll/absent/provisional figures?
Ron Paul maybe liked by the voters, but the GOP don’t like him and have gone out of their way to make sure him and his supporters aren’t heard. Though the internet has ways of making people heard.
Re 405,
Erytnicam Says:
I get to vote postal vote for this, I am a dual citizen. I am voting Obama in the primary election but don’t think he will seriously get up across all 50 states. I will voter for whomever does get up in the general election, most likely Hillary at this point. My states primary election is 15 January so not too far away [Michigan]
Might add for those who aren’t clear on how the US elections work. We have primary and general elections so you vote 2 times over the course of the year. In most states, primaries are “closed”. That means in this instance you have to declare your party affiliation to get a ballot and you get that parties ballot. In a few states, the primaries are open but in those instances, while you don’t have to declare your party affiliation, you still only get one ballot. So for instance, in an open primary, if you are a Republican and you KNOW that your man is going to get up with the nomination from that state, you could do a Democratic vote in the primaries “under cover” and vote against the front runner if you wanted to make mayhem
Julie, isn’t there one weird state with a “wide-open” primary which give you two votes - one in each primary? Washington from memory.
Julie, do you know what percentage of the population votes in primaries as compared to the general election?
Oh no i used it for the love of GOD i hope they don’t.
“aimee
27 Nov 2007 03:56 PM
I love you ron paul! I work in a dental office, and everytime i seat a patient or see a patient i try to spark up a convo about u and educate these people. And i have your newsletter in the waiting room. And friday when i get paid. Im going to go buy car markers and write vote ron paul 2008 on the back of my car. I think everyone should do it. And i could be this web page on the bottom. I want to spread the word. I will be waving my sign on the first!”
From RP’s MySpace, WTF is with these people?
update from Bennelong: Howard 48.33% / McKew 51.67%
(80.61% vote counted)
Howard getting just over 50% in the new votes - would need 60% of them to win it. No postals counted yet, however.
That means McKew has extended her lead by about 100 votes since this morning.
Hey 438, whats your opinion on the Primaries moving ever earlier, and the importance of winning the first primary? Do you think it is wrong that one state can have an undue influence compared to other states?
I reckon the “Close Seats ” criteria ought to be widened. It currently lists seats that are within 50.5 - 49.5 but I believe should be seats within 51 - 49. This is especially so when there are still 20% of votes still to be counted.
As we have seen in Flynn postal votes can wipe 2% off in the twinkling of an eye.
439 Rates Analyst,
I have no idea, sorry. With 50 states and each having their own rules, I don’t know enough to answer your question.
440 Pancho,
As you know, the US doesn’t have compulsory voting. Therefore, the percentage is much lower in primaries compared to the general election. People rekcon “whats the point?”. A good turnout in a general election might be 55 - 60%. In a primary you are lucky if you can manage 15 to 20% I reckon but I have never seen any hard figures on this. I will try, if I can, to determine percentages voting in my state of Michigan and report back on those in late January.
Ron Paul is the most conservative candidate! For example,
But at the same time he is as anti-abortion as they come and doesn’t think there should be a role for the federal government in health or education (they should be state issues, according to him).
I like him because he is the only serious candidate aggressively challenging America’s addiction to ruling the world through superior military force and acting as an empire. No Democrat would dare to do that…
Flynn is lookin scary. ALP margin is down to ~600 votes and 70% of the postals favour the Coalition. Similar for Herbert. Lokks loke the ALP will finish up with 81 or 82 seats.
Tony Abbott has not ruled out challenging in the future for the leadership.
I smell a little bit of division.
Once this Lib leadership is over the Libs wont get any coverage unless one of them is caught stewing kittens.
Looks like Feb 5 is Super Tuesday next year. Over 20 states are holding primaries then.
Oh god, here they come…
I should point out that RP is not someone I would actually vote for. But you have to respect his integrity and logically thought through policy positions, even if you don’t agree with them.
Nervous nellies the absentee votes wil be similar to the “normal” vote.
Re the count, just check the status of the declaration votes choice on the menu for each seat, right now have any absents been counted, if no then don’t worry just yet they should do well for the ALP not least because at least in Qld the ALP HTV card had all Qld seat HTVs on the back of it while the silly Tories had their’s banging on about some crap 6 or was it 9 point plan to further stuff Australia.
I agree ruawake - those trailing need to win their seats on Postals/Pre-polls.
Absentees are unlikely to have any particular political persuasion.
Labor’s margin in Bass is 1000 votes, not 100 votes as someone said above.
And Bass is a case in point - Absentees favouring ALP, while Pre-Poll and Postals favour Libs.
Going on last election’s results, the one party that is favoured by absenteee votes is the Greens. However [ALP + Greens] is basically the same for absentees and ordinary.
Lol check out the front runner for leading the Liberals in Queensland, as on the courier mail poll: http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/poll/1,,952-5031903,00.html
Over 70% of courier mail readers think Mickey Mouse is the best candidate to lead the Qld Libs!
Yeah, looks like a chance in the future to place your bets.
“Certainly I would be very surprised if at some point in the future I [wasn't] a candidate for the leadership.”
Abbott.
Jerk.
Who organises votes for people in retirement villages,nursing homes,etc? Are their postal votes delivered and collected by the incumbents? Who helps with filling out the forms? Are these scrutineered ? I have privately visited these places and am nervous that they could be exploited.
I’ve tried to deliver leaflets for Independent candidates but have never had any access. (Funny how wearing an opposing candidate’s T-shirt can close doors!)
Am also aware of a couple heading o/s who were told they coudn’t vote because it was too early. They were not going to be be near cities. How far ahead of election day can people vote?
Feel there is a need to have independent Information spot where general information to help new Australians,the frial and the timid …currently they are just pounced on by the first HTVer (usually Libs have staked the most prominent spots around our way) and herded away to show what to do. They walk past the rest not accepting others. Wonder if they really wanted to vote for them or are too confused to deal with anything else.
461
Sinic - i voted for Mickey Mouse and im a Tory!
Flynn heading back to Labor on the pre-polls.
Probably been mentioned, but the 80.61% counted in Bennelong below, for example, would relate to the enrolled figure. The final number of votes, of course, is unknown. Federally, in 2004, 94.9% of the enrolment actually voted - of this number 5% were informal.
All things being equal, the 80.61% already counted should read something like
84.86% counted (with something slightly less to account for informals).
Of those undecideds, Labor should get at least 2. That makes it 84-64-2. Anything else is gravy.
I not that Andrew Laming has dipped below the line again.
Interesting to see that 5.58% (or 750000+ people) of the voting population didn’t vote at the last election.
http://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/HouseTurnoutByDivision-12246-NAT.htm
Most seats will likely get to 92-94% voter turnout when counting finishes.
The TCP data is not a complete set.. But I assume the hsitorical swings are on track.
Divison, formal 1st prefs TCP flag Diff
Parkes 67232 67232 64606 Check 2626
Gorton 76016 76016 73456 Check 2560
O’Connor 63150 63150 61129 Check 2021
Warringah 68869 68869 67339 Check 1530
Kalgoorlie 54048 54048 52552 Check 1496
Berowra 68414 68414 67126 Check 1288
Leichhardt 71219 71219 70306 Check 913
Gellibrand 71973 71973 71127 Check 846
Sydney 58621 58621 57836 Check 785
Blaxland 65750 65750 65114 Check 636
Gilmore 61258 61258 60756 Check 502
Hasluck 62568 62568 62310 Check 258
Fraser 86816 86816 86590 Check 226
Greenway 68901 68901 68746 Check 155
Richmond 66271 66271 66169 Check 102
Grayndler 69078 69078 69027 Check 51
Forrest 75438 75438 75404 Check 34
Melbourne Ports 62373 62373 62344 Check 29
Tangney 67163 67163 67141 Check 22
Bradfield 66330 66330 66316 Check 14
Canning 72352 72352 72338 Check 14
Prospect 68336 68336 68323 Check 13
Wentworth 67914 67914 67904 Check 10
Wide Bay 68891 68891 68881 Check 10
Hume 71781 71781 71778 Check 3
La Trobe 75732 75732 75729 Check 3
Bennelong 73064 73064 73062 Check 2
Capricornia 72252 72252 72250 Check 2
Eden-Monaro 68619 68619 68617 Check 2
Fadden 70272 70272 70270 Check 2
Page 75477 75477 75475 Check 2
Ballarat 75204 75204 75203 Check 1
Barton 69511 69511 69510 Check 1
Chifley 68420 68420 68419 Check 1
Gippsland 72895 72895 72894 Check 1
Hotham 66357 66357 66356 Check 1
New England 73806 73806 73805 Check 1
Throsby 68585 68585 68584 Check 1
Wills 71313 71313 71312 Check 1
Braddon 62526 62526 62527 Check -1
Brand 69677 69677 69678 Check -1
Lingiari 36804 36804 36805 Check -1
Melbourne 65210 65210 65211 Check -1
Shortland 72000 72000 72002 Check -2
Holt 77114 77114 77117 Check -3
Lalor 79596 79596 79599 Check -3
North Sydney 66849 66849 66853 Check -4
Fisher 71945 71945 71956 Check -11
Obviously people can’t vote until ballot papers are printed.
Ballot papers can’t be printed until after the declaration of candidates, which can’t happen until the date specified on the writs.
For this election, candidates were declared on 2nd November and ballot papers printed within a few days. Postal voting and early voting began the following week (around 5th November).
So a bit less than three weeks, which really is as early as can possibly be done.
What with all these postals my no 85 bottle of bundy is not looking too flash. Is it true that the Lib leadership vote in Queensland ended 4:4 because Flegg walked out, or is that just a nasty remour?
True, and Fleg voted to save himself.
I’ve never understood why anyone felt the need to blindly follow a party, for no other reason, but because they have always followed the party.
Glen: if the Liberals changed all their policies would you still be a member?
I gather they elected a mouse called Michael. Can anyone confirm this? Or was it perhaps an unemployed rodent?
On an entertaining note, Old Lightning has started freaking out about this new, topsy turvy world
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/turnbull_hands_rudd_a_stick/#commentsmore
Ah, must be physician heal thyself time! With numbers like that it must be practically eyeball to eyeball stuff.
So can we assume that Hockey, Abbott, Pyne (assuming Bishop new L2), the loser out of Turnbull and Nelson, Costello, Dolly, whatsis in Victoria (been a bad day for me, forgotten his name… the one with charisma), will all be potential leadership aspirants biding their time in one way or another? Should make for interesting restaurant discussions.
TO WILLIAM BOWE
LCP gains 54.09% of 2PP counted votes since Sat midnight till Today 5.30PM
(of the 2PP 440,313 2PP counted votes)
William , is there any reason for this trend ?
No, no they wanted to elect a mouse called Michael.
They had to settle for someone less talented.
In the old days, the main prepoll booth in Adelaide had Liberal and Labor people handing out HTVs for interstate voters. My one day at the Adelaide prepoll this time was early in the piece and neither party had anything for interstate voters. I had three days at the Marion prepoll and it was the same story, except that at the end the Libs did have sheets for interstate voters and Labor did not.
Abbot out of the race.
Leaves it between Dr Nelson and Turnbull now, with dumb as dog sh-t Bishop, Pyne and Robb all chasing the deputy role.
Anyone know why there is a seperate independent contest for deputy? Couldn’t the Libs benefit from Turnbull and Nelson occupying the two leadership positions?
Update on Swan
Wilkie now 50 behind and some (all?) of the absentee votes have been counted.
This leaves Provisionals.
In 2004 Wilkie won them by 130.
In 2001 Wilkie won them by 80.
So he is still in the race.
What’s the closest final result in a seat?
That would have to be Chris Gallus in Hawker in 1990 - she got up by 14 votes, I believe.
Hawker in 1900 - 14 votes
Ballarat in 1919 was 1 vote, but challenged and a by-election took place.
Yes, 1990 - not 1900.
473
Asanque - If they became a left wing party i wouldn’t like it, but so long as they are hard fiscal conservatives and they don’t have a completely left wing social agenda ill still be a member. But yes if they became a left wing party id not be a member.
Turnbull seems a lock though regardless it will be close between Nelson and Mr. T, and Bishop is clearly the lock for the Deputy Leadership she’ll be able to do the rounds in WA picking up cheques
Glen: What do you consider to be a left wing social agenda?
What do you consider to be a right wing social agenda?
Flegg is completely disgusted in his party but won’t let go!
I just don’t understand his motives at all.
He was contacted a while back concerning a breakaway group from both sides to unseat Labor at the next state election and responded by saying he will stay where he is.
It just don’t make no sense.
Well Asanque im left in some areas like abortion but right in areas of gay marriage.
I am hard right when it comes to fiscal policy, but socially that brings me more into the centre-right group.
Anything to the left of Attila the Hun.
Glen, I’m just curious as to what constitutes right and left wing social agendas.
For example, I’m pro abortion and choice, and pro death penalty (in highly limited circumstances). I’m ambivalent about gay marriage.
What other issues remain in contention?
Ive just checked the latest counting and Labor have been reduced to 81 seats. They may hang onto Solomon and Herbert but even they are doubtful - the best for Labor now is 83 seats. On Monday it looked like 87 certain and possible 89 but we have been slaughtered in