Below is a preliminary Mackerras pendulum/table based on current results. The first thing to note is that the Liberals seem to be enjoying one-way traffic in late counting. They have taken the lead in Dickson, Swan and Bowman, appear home-and-hosed in La Trobe and are strongly placed in Macarthur. An 862 vote lead in McEwen would also normally be a basis on which to claim victory, but there are reports of “the discovery of about 3000 votes wrongly sent to neighbouring Scullin” which don’t seem to have been factored in yet. Only in Herbert has late counting actively improved Labor’s position. They are also keeping their noses in front in Solomon, although the imminent count of electronically lodged military votes might narrow the gap. If these trends continue Labor will end up with a relatively disappointing haul of 84 seats, against 64 for the Coalition and two independents. In that case it would take a loss of only nine seats at the next election for Labor to lose its majority, which would occur on a uniform swing of just 1.7 per cent. Bennelong again emerges as the litmus test seat: Labor can take comfort in the likelihood that it will swing heavily to them in John Howard’s absence. The next seat up the pendulum is Petrie in northern Brisbane, where Labor currently leads by 2.3 per cent.
Labor supporters might assume that federal politics will now follow the precedent established time and again at state level, where Labor enjoyed landslide re-election wins after establishing themselves in power. However, the historical record at the federal level offers the unhappy precedent of first-term swings against every post-war government (though only in 1998 was it greater than 1.7 per cent). I have a high enough opinion of Malcolm Turnbull to imagine he can steer the party clear of many of the obstacles that have faced it at state level, should the party be sensible enough to make him leader. Whoever takes the mantle, they will face the severe difficulty of a party room dominated by members from Western Australia, whose sensitivity to the national mood is indicated by today’s front page headline in The West Australian: “WA Libs demand party stands by WorkChoices”.
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26.5 Batman 25.4 Grayndler 24.1 Throsby 23.6 Melbourne 23.3 Wills 22.0 Gellibrand 21.2 Scullin 21.0 Chifley 21.0 Gorton 21.0 Watson 20.0 Port Adelaide 20.0 Sydney |
New England 24.6 (IND vs NAT) Mallee 21.6 |
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19.5 Calwell 19.2 Blaxland 18.9 Fowler 18.5 Cunningham 17.0 Reid 16.4 Hunter 15.9 Newcastle 15.8 Lalor 15.6 Denison 15.6 Fraser 15.3 Maribyrnong 15.3 Werriwa 15.1 Shortland |
Murray 18.3 O’Connor 16.6 Kennedy 15.9 (IND vs ALP) Riverina 15.7 |
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14.9 Oxley 13.9 Prospect 13.7 Hotham 13.6 Kingsford Smith 13.5 Capricornia 13.3 Charlton 13.1 Lingiari 12.5 Barton 12.5 Griffith 12.3 Holt 12.0 Rankin 11.8 Canberra 11.2 Banks |
Moncrieff 14.4 Curtin 14.3 Bradfield 13.6 Maranoa 13.0 Mackellar 12.6 Parkes 12.4 Mitchell 11.4 Calare 11.3 Farrer 11.3 Fadden 10.4 |
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9.5 Corio 9.5 Fremantle 9.5 Richmond 9.4 Perth 9.2 Jagajaga |
Warringah 9.5 Moore 9.3 Barker 9.1 Pearce 9.1 Indi 9.0 |
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8.7 Bruce 8.6 Ballarat 8.6 Lilley 8.6 Lyons 8.5 Adelaide 8.0 Melbourne Ports |
Kooyong 8.9 Tangney 8.8 Berowra 8.7 McPherson 8.7 Lyne 8.4 Wide Bay 8.3 Groom 8.1 |
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7.9 Isaacs 7.8 Makin 7.5 Chisholm 7.4 Lowe 7.4 Macquarie 7.2 Parramatta 7.1 Lindsay 7.0 Brisbane |
Flinders 7.8 Wannon 7.3 Cook 7.1 |
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6.9 Wakefield 6.1 Brand 6.0 Bendigo |
Higgins 6.8 Mayo 6.8 Casey 6.1 |
| 5.1 Hindmarsh |
Forrest 5.8 Gippsland 5.7 Menzies 5.7 Goldstein 5.6 Canning 5.4 North Sydney 5.2 Aston 5.1 |
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4.9 Blair 4.8 Bonner 4.8 Moreton 4.7 Leichhardt 4.6 Kingston 4.5 Franklin 4.1 Dobell 4.1 Eden-Monaro |
McMillan 4.9 Greenway 4.6 |
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3.7 Longman 3.5 Dawson 3.1 Forde |
Grey 3.9 Ryan 3.8 Wentworth 3.7 Dunkley 3.5 Gilmore 3.4 Hume 3.4 |
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2.6 Flynn 2.4 Page 2.3 Petrie |
Boothby 2.9 Fairfax 2.6 Fisher 2.6 |
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1.7 Bennelong 1.7 Deakin 1.5 Braddon 1.4 Hasluck |
Hughes 1.8 Kalgoorlie 1.6 Cowan 1.4 Hinkler 1.2 Paterson 1.2 Stirling 1.1 Cowper 1.0 Sturt 1.0 |
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0.9 Bass 0.9 Corangamite 0.8 Solomon 0.5 Robertson 0.4 Herbert |
La Trobe 0.5 McEwen 0.5 Macarthur 0.4 Bowman 0.02 Swan 0.02 Dickson 0.01 |
720 Comments
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Once this Lib leadership is over the Libs wont get any coverage unless one of them is caught stewing kittens.
Looks like Feb 5 is Super Tuesday next year. Over 20 states are holding primaries then.
Oh god, here they come…
I should point out that RP is not someone I would actually vote for. But you have to respect his integrity and logically thought through policy positions, even if you don’t agree with them.
Nervous nellies the absentee votes wil be similar to the “normal” vote.
Re the count, just check the status of the declaration votes choice on the menu for each seat, right now have any absents been counted, if no then don’t worry just yet they should do well for the ALP not least because at least in Qld the ALP HTV card had all Qld seat HTVs on the back of it while the silly Tories had their’s banging on about some crap 6 or was it 9 point plan to further stuff Australia.
I agree ruawake – those trailing need to win their seats on Postals/Pre-polls.
Absentees are unlikely to have any particular political persuasion.
Labor’s margin in Bass is 1000 votes, not 100 votes as someone said above.
And Bass is a case in point – Absentees favouring ALP, while Pre-Poll and Postals favour Libs.
Going on last election’s results, the one party that is favoured by absenteee votes is the Greens. However [ALP + Greens] is basically the same for absentees and ordinary.
Lol check out the front runner for leading the Liberals in Queensland, as on the courier mail poll: http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/poll/1,,952-5031903,00.html
Over 70% of courier mail readers think Mickey Mouse is the best candidate to lead the Qld Libs!
Yeah, looks like a chance in the future to place your bets.
“Certainly I would be very surprised if at some point in the future I [wasn't] a candidate for the leadership.”
Abbott.
Jerk.
Who organises votes for people in retirement villages,nursing homes,etc? Are their postal votes delivered and collected by the incumbents? Who helps with filling out the forms? Are these scrutineered ? I have privately visited these places and am nervous that they could be exploited.
I’ve tried to deliver leaflets for Independent candidates but have never had any access. (Funny how wearing an opposing candidate’s T-shirt can close doors!)
Am also aware of a couple heading o/s who were told they coudn’t vote because it was too early. They were not going to be be near cities. How far ahead of election day can people vote?
Feel there is a need to have independent Information spot where general information to help new Australians,the frial and the timid …currently they are just pounced on by the first HTVer (usually Libs have staked the most prominent spots around our way) and herded away to show what to do. They walk past the rest not accepting others. Wonder if they really wanted to vote for them or are too confused to deal with anything else.
461
Sinic – i voted for Mickey Mouse and im a Tory!
Flynn heading back to Labor on the pre-polls.
Probably been mentioned, but the 80.61% counted in Bennelong below, for example, would relate to the enrolled figure. The final number of votes, of course, is unknown. Federally, in 2004, 94.9% of the enrolment actually voted – of this number 5% were informal.
All things being equal, the 80.61% already counted should read something like
84.86% counted (with something slightly less to account for informals).
Of those undecideds, Labor should get at least 2. That makes it 84-64-2. Anything else is gravy.
I not that Andrew Laming has dipped below the line again.
Interesting to see that 5.58% (or 750000+ people) of the voting population didn’t vote at the last election.
http://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/HouseTurnoutByDivision-12246-NAT.htm
Most seats will likely get to 92-94% voter turnout when counting finishes.
The TCP data is not a complete set.. But I assume the hsitorical swings are on track.
Divison, formal 1st prefs TCP flag Diff
Parkes 67232 67232 64606 Check 2626
Gorton 76016 76016 73456 Check 2560
O’Connor 63150 63150 61129 Check 2021
Warringah 68869 68869 67339 Check 1530
Kalgoorlie 54048 54048 52552 Check 1496
Berowra 68414 68414 67126 Check 1288
Leichhardt 71219 71219 70306 Check 913
Gellibrand 71973 71973 71127 Check 846
Sydney 58621 58621 57836 Check 785
Blaxland 65750 65750 65114 Check 636
Gilmore 61258 61258 60756 Check 502
Hasluck 62568 62568 62310 Check 258
Fraser 86816 86816 86590 Check 226
Greenway 68901 68901 68746 Check 155
Richmond 66271 66271 66169 Check 102
Grayndler 69078 69078 69027 Check 51
Forrest 75438 75438 75404 Check 34
Melbourne Ports 62373 62373 62344 Check 29
Tangney 67163 67163 67141 Check 22
Bradfield 66330 66330 66316 Check 14
Canning 72352 72352 72338 Check 14
Prospect 68336 68336 68323 Check 13
Wentworth 67914 67914 67904 Check 10
Wide Bay 68891 68891 68881 Check 10
Hume 71781 71781 71778 Check 3
La Trobe 75732 75732 75729 Check 3
Bennelong 73064 73064 73062 Check 2
Capricornia 72252 72252 72250 Check 2
Eden-Monaro 68619 68619 68617 Check 2
Fadden 70272 70272 70270 Check 2
Page 75477 75477 75475 Check 2
Ballarat 75204 75204 75203 Check 1
Barton 69511 69511 69510 Check 1
Chifley 68420 68420 68419 Check 1
Gippsland 72895 72895 72894 Check 1
Hotham 66357 66357 66356 Check 1
New England 73806 73806 73805 Check 1
Throsby 68585 68585 68584 Check 1
Wills 71313 71313 71312 Check 1
Braddon 62526 62526 62527 Check -1
Brand 69677 69677 69678 Check -1
Lingiari 36804 36804 36805 Check -1
Melbourne 65210 65210 65211 Check -1
Shortland 72000 72000 72002 Check -2
Holt 77114 77114 77117 Check -3
Lalor 79596 79596 79599 Check -3
North Sydney 66849 66849 66853 Check -4
Fisher 71945 71945 71956 Check -11
Obviously people can’t vote until ballot papers are printed.
Ballot papers can’t be printed until after the declaration of candidates, which can’t happen until the date specified on the writs.
For this election, candidates were declared on 2nd November and ballot papers printed within a few days. Postal voting and early voting began the following week (around 5th November).
So a bit less than three weeks, which really is as early as can possibly be done.
What with all these postals my no 85 bottle of bundy is not looking too flash. Is it true that the Lib leadership vote in Queensland ended 4:4 because Flegg walked out, or is that just a nasty remour?
True, and Fleg voted to save himself.
I’ve never understood why anyone felt the need to blindly follow a party, for no other reason, but because they have always followed the party.
Glen: if the Liberals changed all their policies would you still be a member?
I gather they elected a mouse called Michael. Can anyone confirm this? Or was it perhaps an unemployed rodent?
On an entertaining note, Old Lightning has started freaking out about this new, topsy turvy world
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/turnbull_hands_rudd_a_stick/#commentsmore
Ah, must be physician heal thyself time! With numbers like that it must be practically eyeball to eyeball stuff.
So can we assume that Hockey, Abbott, Pyne (assuming Bishop new L2), the loser out of Turnbull and Nelson, Costello, Dolly, whatsis in Victoria (been a bad day for me, forgotten his name… the one with charisma), will all be potential leadership aspirants biding their time in one way or another? Should make for interesting restaurant discussions.
TO WILLIAM BOWE
LCP gains 54.09% of 2PP counted votes since Sat midnight till Today 5.30PM
(of the 2PP 440,313 2PP counted votes)
William , is there any reason for this trend ?
No, no they wanted to elect a mouse called Michael.
They had to settle for someone less talented.
In the old days, the main prepoll booth in Adelaide had Liberal and Labor people handing out HTVs for interstate voters. My one day at the Adelaide prepoll this time was early in the piece and neither party had anything for interstate voters. I had three days at the Marion prepoll and it was the same story, except that at the end the Libs did have sheets for interstate voters and Labor did not.
Abbot out of the race.
Leaves it between Dr Nelson and Turnbull now, with dumb as dog sh-t Bishop, Pyne and Robb all chasing the deputy role.
Anyone know why there is a seperate independent contest for deputy? Couldn’t the Libs benefit from Turnbull and Nelson occupying the two leadership positions?
Update on Swan
Wilkie now 50 behind and some (all?) of the absentee votes have been counted.
This leaves Provisionals.
In 2004 Wilkie won them by 130.
In 2001 Wilkie won them by 80.
So he is still in the race.
What’s the closest final result in a seat?
That would have to be Chris Gallus in Hawker in 1990 – she got up by 14 votes, I believe.
Hawker in 1900 – 14 votes
Ballarat in 1919 was 1 vote, but challenged and a by-election took place.
Yes, 1990 – not 1900.
473
Asanque – If they became a left wing party i wouldn’t like it, but so long as they are hard fiscal conservatives and they don’t have a completely left wing social agenda ill still be a member. But yes if they became a left wing party id not be a member.
Turnbull seems a lock though regardless it will be close between Nelson and Mr. T, and Bishop is clearly the lock for the Deputy Leadership she’ll be able to do the rounds in WA picking up cheques
Glen: What do you consider to be a left wing social agenda?
What do you consider to be a right wing social agenda?
Flegg is completely disgusted in his party but won’t let go!
I just don’t understand his motives at all.
He was contacted a while back concerning a breakaway group from both sides to unseat Labor at the next state election and responded by saying he will stay where he is.
It just don’t make no sense.
Well Asanque im left in some areas like abortion but right in areas of gay marriage.
I am hard right when it comes to fiscal policy, but socially that brings me more into the centre-right group.
Anything to the left of Attila the Hun.
Glen, I’m just curious as to what constitutes right and left wing social agendas.
For example, I’m pro abortion and choice, and pro death penalty (in highly limited circumstances). I’m ambivalent about gay marriage.
What other issues remain in contention?
Ive just checked the latest counting and Labor have been reduced to 81 seats. They may hang onto Solomon and Herbert but even they are doubtful – the best for Labor now is 83 seats. On Monday it looked like 87 certain and possible 89 but we have been slaughtered in the postals and preposts. I feel sorry for the Labor candidate in Dickson – the Sunday CM had a big picture of her celebrating her victory over that prat Dutton but he’s definitely back stuff it! Well they are in range for 2010 but Labor may only have 6 seats up – not a healthy lead if the economy runs into trouble in the nex couple of years.
Taxation principals are about the last issue I can see.
To me, whether you choose a progressive taxation system or not is different from insisting on a balanced budget. The former is a social issue the later a fiscal.
And, assuming most accept the rich should pay higher tax rates than the poor, by how much more?
Isn’t pro-death penalty a right wing thing, i support it fully but it would never get back.
I have no problems with civil partnerships for homosexuals.
493
the skip – she obviously showed a lot of hubris on Saturday, im sure she’ll get another run at Peter in 2010.
Mickey Mouse now at 72% the Qld Libs are coming back hahahahahahahahah
Glen,
What about religious freedom? Do all religions have the right to be practised? To what extent?
Do parents have the right to raise their children in a religion? And again, to what extent? (eg. can they have their boys circumcised? can their girls be made to wear a hijab/headscarf?)
Are certain religions more “equal” than others?
Speaker at 414 said:
“The Greens also benefit from the backpacker vote. Bob Brown amusingly said “bushwalker” vote on election night – but meant backpacker.”
I’m glad you clarified that – when I heard Brown talk about the Bushwalker vote I was wondering WTF he was on about. I thought there must have been some new ageing hippy bushwalker demographic I hadnt heard about
493
Only 250 odd votes in it, not over yet in Dickson.
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