Below is a preliminary Mackerras pendulum/table based on current results. The first thing to note is that the Liberals seem to be enjoying one-way traffic in late counting. They have taken the lead in Dickson, Swan and Bowman, appear home-and-hosed in La Trobe and are strongly placed in Macarthur. An 862 vote lead in McEwen would also normally be a basis on which to claim victory, but there are reports of “the discovery of about 3000 votes wrongly sent to neighbouring Scullin” which don’t seem to have been factored in yet. Only in Herbert has late counting actively improved Labor’s position. They are also keeping their noses in front in Solomon, although the imminent count of electronically lodged military votes might narrow the gap. If these trends continue Labor will end up with a relatively disappointing haul of 84 seats, against 64 for the Coalition and two independents. In that case it would take a loss of only nine seats at the next election for Labor to lose its majority, which would occur on a uniform swing of just 1.7 per cent. Bennelong again emerges as the litmus test seat: Labor can take comfort in the likelihood that it will swing heavily to them in John Howard’s absence. The next seat up the pendulum is Petrie in northern Brisbane, where Labor currently leads by 2.3 per cent.
Labor supporters might assume that federal politics will now follow the precedent established time and again at state level, where Labor enjoyed landslide re-election wins after establishing themselves in power. However, the historical record at the federal level offers the unhappy precedent of first-term swings against every post-war government (though only in 1998 was it greater than 1.7 per cent). I have a high enough opinion of Malcolm Turnbull to imagine he can steer the party clear of many of the obstacles that have faced it at state level, should the party be sensible enough to make him leader. Whoever takes the mantle, they will face the severe difficulty of a party room dominated by members from Western Australia, whose sensitivity to the national mood is indicated by today’s front page headline in The West Australian: “WA Libs demand party stands by WorkChoices”.
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26.5 Batman 25.4 Grayndler 24.1 Throsby 23.6 Melbourne 23.3 Wills 22.0 Gellibrand 21.2 Scullin 21.0 Chifley 21.0 Gorton 21.0 Watson 20.0 Port Adelaide 20.0 Sydney |
New England 24.6 (IND vs NAT) Mallee 21.6 |
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19.5 Calwell 19.2 Blaxland 18.9 Fowler 18.5 Cunningham 17.0 Reid 16.4 Hunter 15.9 Newcastle 15.8 Lalor 15.6 Denison 15.6 Fraser 15.3 Maribyrnong 15.3 Werriwa 15.1 Shortland |
Murray 18.3 O’Connor 16.6 Kennedy 15.9 (IND vs ALP) Riverina 15.7 |
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14.9 Oxley 13.9 Prospect 13.7 Hotham 13.6 Kingsford Smith 13.5 Capricornia 13.3 Charlton 13.1 Lingiari 12.5 Barton 12.5 Griffith 12.3 Holt 12.0 Rankin 11.8 Canberra 11.2 Banks |
Moncrieff 14.4 Curtin 14.3 Bradfield 13.6 Maranoa 13.0 Mackellar 12.6 Parkes 12.4 Mitchell 11.4 Calare 11.3 Farrer 11.3 Fadden 10.4 |
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9.5 Corio 9.5 Fremantle 9.5 Richmond 9.4 Perth 9.2 Jagajaga |
Warringah 9.5 Moore 9.3 Barker 9.1 Pearce 9.1 Indi 9.0 |
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8.7 Bruce 8.6 Ballarat 8.6 Lilley 8.6 Lyons 8.5 Adelaide 8.0 Melbourne Ports |
Kooyong 8.9 Tangney 8.8 Berowra 8.7 McPherson 8.7 Lyne 8.4 Wide Bay 8.3 Groom 8.1 |
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7.9 Isaacs 7.8 Makin 7.5 Chisholm 7.4 Lowe 7.4 Macquarie 7.2 Parramatta 7.1 Lindsay 7.0 Brisbane |
Flinders 7.8 Wannon 7.3 Cook 7.1 |
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6.9 Wakefield 6.1 Brand 6.0 Bendigo |
Higgins 6.8 Mayo 6.8 Casey 6.1 |
| 5.1 Hindmarsh |
Forrest 5.8 Gippsland 5.7 Menzies 5.7 Goldstein 5.6 Canning 5.4 North Sydney 5.2 Aston 5.1 |
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4.9 Blair 4.8 Bonner 4.8 Moreton 4.7 Leichhardt 4.6 Kingston 4.5 Franklin 4.1 Dobell 4.1 Eden-Monaro |
McMillan 4.9 Greenway 4.6 |
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3.7 Longman 3.5 Dawson 3.1 Forde |
Grey 3.9 Ryan 3.8 Wentworth 3.7 Dunkley 3.5 Gilmore 3.4 Hume 3.4 |
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2.6 Flynn 2.4 Page 2.3 Petrie |
Boothby 2.9 Fairfax 2.6 Fisher 2.6 |
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1.7 Bennelong 1.7 Deakin 1.5 Braddon 1.4 Hasluck |
Hughes 1.8 Kalgoorlie 1.6 Cowan 1.4 Hinkler 1.2 Paterson 1.2 Stirling 1.1 Cowper 1.0 Sturt 1.0 |
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0.9 Bass 0.9 Corangamite 0.8 Solomon 0.5 Robertson 0.4 Herbert |
La Trobe 0.5 McEwen 0.5 Macarthur 0.4 Bowman 0.02 Swan 0.02 Dickson 0.01 |
720 Comments
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No but if a religions discriminates based on sex then the State where it has the power should ban such acts ie hijab/burka IMHO. But apart from that i’ve got no problems with religion, though i don’t believe in any.
re Bass; sorry i meant 1000, missed a zero (as you do).
Closer look at Bennelong; Howard has no hope at all of recovery.
When i look at the votes remaining to be counted in the close seats i don’t think Labor can possibly lose; in both Braddon and Bass the count is very advanced so they are safe.
However, I think 83 is about the best the ALP can win. In the end it makes no difference, especially as caucus no longer votes for the ministry.
The overall 2PP vote is moving very close to 53%, a good victory but not a landslide by my reckoning.
Overall swing should be about 5.5%.
Maybe it is also time to look at enlarging the federal parliament. Tassie seats have average enrolments of about 70,000, NT even less at about 60,000. ACT seats have ~120,000 so this needs to be addressed. I know constitutionally Tassie must have 5 seats but with the mainland states all having enrolments of about 90,000 the gap is starting to be a bit undemocratic. So maybe three ACT seats and maybe a general reduction of mainland seats to about 75 or 80,000 enrolments; so increasing the parliament to 165 or even 170 seats may be in order.
I think there is plenty of room in the new parliament house.
Surely any liberal society should have freedom of religion tempered by an equally powerful right to be free of religion.
The problem for me is that as soon as a religion organisation retains members by coercion, then it is directly challenging liberalism, and any such practices should rightly be curtailed by the government, in the interests of defending liberty.
502
)
seajay – i agree but i don’t think the Territory should be just one seat that’s undemocratic, but i can see the ACT needing another seat (though it would be a Labor one
I think constituencies should be 75,000 because how on earth can 1 person reasonably represent 85 or 90,000 people?
“im left in some areas like abortion but right in areas of gay marriage.”
What sort of postmodern tripe is this? These aren’t Left/Right issues.
Opposition to abortion and gay marriage is reactionary!
So does this mean anything non-reactionary is Left?
Get a grip and do some reading.
503
ShowsOn – Hear Hear.
Nico, Dutton has picked up 650 votes since Monday – there’s 16% left so unless you know how the postal system works (eg all the nursing homes and retirement villages would be counted in one group and we still may have several thousand 18-50’s still to go) then I think she’s stuffed. I agree with Glen though – based on changing demographics Dickson will be a difficult seat for the Libs to hang onto.
seejay
agree totally. The one person one vote concept is absent in Australia and we are fast on the track to having the ridiculous uneven electorates like those in the US House.
The Senate is hideously anti-democratic. But so is the House. Taswegians are shamelessly over represented. Why does the ACT have to have the most over populated electorates? (Forget stupid Kalgoorlie, Fraser is Australia’s largest electorate). Why are the ACT’s and the NT’s laws less valid and subject to federal override?
It’s unjustifiable.
The fact that people even entertained the idea of H*ward being elected with 48% TPP was sick and scary.
It’s not how the votes are cast that counts, it’s how and where they are counted that matters.
Glen: “No but if a religions discriminates based on sex then the State where it has the power should ban such acts ie hijab/burka IMHO. But apart from that i’ve got no problems with religion, though i don’t believe in any.”
Ok, fair enough. So, should male circumcision also be banned for J-ws and M-slims? That practice discriminates against boys in those religions… Do you think the state should intervene there?
The fact that the libs released their tax policy on the first day of the election could be a factor their numbers going so well in pre poll/absentee votes
South Australian seats each have 10,000 more electors than those of the other mainland states. This is because seats are allocated on the basis of population, not enrolled voters. SA has a higher proportion of its population enrolled than the other states.
507
the skip – if Dutton holds on it will only be because its Dutton as much as you may dislike him.
Herbert and Bowman: last 5% of vote counting hasnt altered much. ALP still has nose in front at 85%, much as it did at 80%
maybe the pro-lib postals are done?
RE: 511
Phil, we lost a referendum in 1974 under Gough that sought to have seats based on population rather than enrolled votes; i think you will find that still applies. i suspect it will turn out that SA is on the borderline for having an extra seat.
How about this for the senate, half (ie 6) seats are fixed for each state, so of the 72 senate seats 36 would be fixed. The other half are population based, so NSW would get about 12 extra seats (about 18 all up) and tassie would get 1 extra (7 all up), Vics 15, Qld 13, WA 10, SA 9. Sounds about right.
I realise this would require a referendum that would probably never ever get up but hey, this is, in the end a psephology blog not a party rant, let’s fantasise about an even fairer electoral system.
Solomon and Robertson holding up for ALP as well.
Swan is looking incredibly similar to 2004. Wonder is Wilkie can jag the provisionals once more?
Has the count stopped at Bennelong, for the moment?
Good grief, this is almost as excruciating as election night. Lefty E, can you please explain where you’re getting the updates. I’ve tried different ways of trying to find the info., but am clearly clueless.
Crikey Whitey, don’t torture me. I thought Bennelong was pretty much a done thing for Maxine?
http://www.aec.gov.au
Predictions:
I think the ALP will hold up in Solomon (just) (going off of figures for postals etc. from the ‘04 election).
They’ll lose Swan, won’t win Herbert or Bowman and probably not Robertson or Flynn.
Truss v Joyce for Nats leadership:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22836664-5014046,00.html
LTEP – ALP to win Solomon, Flynn, and one of Bowman/Herbert.
Lefty E, Megan at 463 asked a question to which you may know the in depth answer.
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-13745-105.htm
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseIncumbentTrailing-13745.htm
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseCloseSeats-13745-NAT.htm
Individidual links.
Your’e tortured!
Nico, if the rest of the postals run the same way as they have been so far the ALP will be 500 votes behind in Flynn.
It doesn’t worry me that the ALP may only have a small margin. It’s good for democracy: the onus is on them to deliver and if they don’t, they must suffer at the ballot box in three years’ time. Besides, the Libs will be forced to the center by then anyway, if Turnbull’s rhetoric is to be believed.
ALP to win Swan, Solomon, Bowman, Herbert, Flynn.
Btw, I think Labor will hold on in Flynn and Solomon.
I don’t see the Nats maintaining a 71/29 split in the postals in Flynn – that number has got to narrow. There’s also 2500 pre-polls left, which split 59/41 to Labor. Ultimately, it will come down to the 7000 absentee ballots, which should (based on history) favour Labor.
Herbert will be decided by the absentee and provisional ballots – no idea how they fell in 2004, but they should favour Labor, particularly as Labor is only 51/49 behind in pre-polls and 57/43 behind in postals. Still, it’s way too close to call at this stage.
Bowman is gone, Swan could still be tight and Robertson looks tough for Labor. Does anyone know what happened to the 3000 missing ballots in McEwen?
SL, I think the ALP will get up in Robertson.
Good thinking, 502 seajay.
If new seats are created, can Kev say only candidates for Labor are allowed to stand?
These last trickle-votes are disappointing, a very stubborn Liberal vote, also shown in how many of the majority seats are now marginal too.
Unusual also to see such negligible swings in the safe seats. There may have been some who didn’t like Howard the person, but generally they remained Liberal Party faithful.
That *HUGE* effort to switch even 5% of voters, with a suspicion that many of whom felt very uncomfortable in the switching, and now warily watching Rudd and his team for the slightest harmless miss-step.
I’ve often thought its not the govt, or the personalities/policies of the individuals who lead it, it reflects the Australian people, no matter how you draw up the electorate boundaries.
Lets face it folks. The majority of Aussies are a***holes, and stubbornly proud of it. They will always outnumber the rest of us. The rise of the Liberal right, One Nation and so on, couldn’t be only due to ‘deluded fools’ being sucked in by spin and propaganda. It must have been there all along.
Its one of the reasons I was distrustful of Republicanism, whether voted in or appointed by a right-wing fascist govt. Australians are such idiots, at best we would end up Chaser, Norman Gunston, Dame Edna, a popular bimbo TV soap-opera star, cricket or football players etc — or at worst, we’d probably end up with another Robert Mugabe. Pol Pot anyone? How about Pinochet – that seems to be the sort of “image” the majority of Aussies want.
Perhaps thats why Canadians are also distrustful of Republicanism, with much less historical/cultural ties to old England than we have. The G-G and the Queen are mostly harmless compared to some of the alternatives.
Interesting that centrebet is offering odds on the next election as follows:
Prime Minister:
Australian Labor Party: $1.16
Any Other Party: $4.60
Maybe the punters are of the view that the Libs may not be around under that name by 2010??
Thanks, Crikey, hadn’t seen that particular bit of the AEC site (the close seats bit). For reasons that clearly have to do with my own psychopathology, even if the margin to Labor is small in a particular seat, I’d rather have just a couple more. Similarly, it probably has more to do with my own idiosyncracies, but I’ll prefer it when the bloody Lib. leadership thing is done and over with, and we can get on with treating them to relevance deprivation. Thanks for what I’m assuming was your attempt to help, Glen, but I can find the AEC site, and truly, sincerely, genuinely, passionately want this country to be different in ways that only Labor can deliver, i.e., less me, me, me, and bugger the rest, more creativity in science and business, less picking on those who are vulnerable or who can’t defend themselves. You know the line. Maybe, a few of your lot might know it too, but have been too stymied by their relationship to Howard and to the myth of Howard, to challenge.
Sorry to be off topic – but noticed that Rudd arrived here in Canberra in an airforce jet. How did he get around when in opposition? was it on commercial airlines?
There’s a nice picture on the ABC website of him emerging from “Rudd 1″
CAN the Liberals STILL win the Election OR make it a CLIFFHANGER IN SEATS
Presently the AEC shows Labor 81 , LCP 59 Independents 2 , Doubtful 8
The 8 Doubtful seats are :Bowman , Dickson , Solomon , Flynn , Herbert Latrobe
Macarthur & Swan
Of the 440,313 2PP votes counted since midnight Sat nite to now , LCP is 54.09%
On this basis LCP would win all 8
This means ALP wins 81 IF all marginals allegedly allocated as “Labor wins” hold
These close marginals are following showing
win % margin needed to win (current swing)…% counted
Hasluck -1.82(-3.26)…79.82%
Bennelong -4.13 (-5.76)…81.68%
Deakin -4.97 (-6.69)…81.04%
Corangamite -5.32 (-6.03)..84.06%
Bass -2.63 (-3.56)…90.88%
Cowan 0.78 (-2.23)…84.44%
Braddon -1.13 (-2.54)..91.39&
Can these 7 marginals withstand the current 54.09% swing on all remaining 2PP votes counted per seat
So, if Dutton gets back in won’t he go for L2? Will the Lib L vote happen before clearances? Does not seem very fair.
Rain, I understand your take on the Australian people, having met and had to deal with some of the worst drongos you could possibly imagine, including some very bad people. However, I think that leadership in whatever field, is about finding ways to deal with the worst of human excess by containing the contamination humanely, treating those hurt with compassion, and fixing the fundamental roots of what’s producing the problem/s in the first place. Educating people rather than dumbing down the population seems a pretty reasonable contribution.
Ron Brown,
Simple answer – yes. Howard needs about 68% of the postal vote (which is not going to happen) to win Bennelong. No chance of a Lib victory.
If you look at the current counts on the AEC site regarding postals, pre-poll and absentees, the answer is a resounding no. There is no significant consistent trend to the Coalition in their own marginals – in a couple yes, but the ALP are doing well in others.
Btw, Cowan isn’t a Labor marginal under the AEC – it’s a Lib marginal.
WA Libs also headed for a leadership spill
http://www.theage.com.au/news/National/WA-Libs-leader-faces-possible-challenge/2007/11/28/1196036977674.html
HURRAY THERE IS A GOD!
Ding Dong The Schmuck is dead which old Schmuck = Paul Omodei
Corangamite is now close, but Labor should still win. The Libs need to win 58% of the remaining ballots to tie it up, which is doable but unlikely, considering that most postals have been counted but no absentee and provisional ballots (which should favour Labor more).
The Liberal state MPs here in Qld are going from mere absurdity to high farce, where they are now implacably split into 2 opposing Gangs of Four (yes for a total of 8 MPs). They can’t go back, they can’t go forth, they’re locked in a deadly embrace, and thus stuck with Doctor Flogg for the foreseeable future. Still another 3 years until an election comes along to put them out of their misery…
Yea like an unelectable conservative party is going to make a great contribution to the direction of the nation.
I do agree with you Harry ‘Snapper’, well said – and while I really do have *some* hope that this time, that the much needed education, compassion and “healing” – going to the root of the problem – might ultimately happen, (given time and half a chance!) reviewing these latest figures was a somewhat *crushing* blow – if you know what I mean? Especially after such a hard-fought struggle during the campaign.
Apologies for the vent!
On the bright side, if its as bad I painted it, then moving even that %age of the population was a task of Herculean proportions and should be celebrated as a great achievement!!
NO, 81 is greater than 75,
So folks who’ll be on the 7:30 Report tomorrow night, Brendan Nelson or Malcolm Turnbull.
I want Turnbull but i think Nelson will get it.
Turnbull seems to be the favourite still. Wouldn’t put any money on it though…
guys ave it 07 is a goose how does he get let on here anyway worked my usual train to eastwood today spoke to afew people they were pretty pleased with maxines win
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