Below is a preliminary Mackerras pendulum/table based on current results. The first thing to note is that the Liberals seem to be enjoying one-way traffic in late counting. They have taken the lead in Dickson, Swan and Bowman, appear home-and-hosed in La Trobe and are strongly placed in Macarthur. An 862 vote lead in McEwen would also normally be a basis on which to claim victory, but there are reports of “the discovery of about 3000 votes wrongly sent to neighbouring Scullin” which don’t seem to have been factored in yet. Only in Herbert has late counting actively improved Labor’s position. They are also keeping their noses in front in Solomon, although the imminent count of electronically lodged military votes might narrow the gap. If these trends continue Labor will end up with a relatively disappointing haul of 84 seats, against 64 for the Coalition and two independents. In that case it would take a loss of only nine seats at the next election for Labor to lose its majority, which would occur on a uniform swing of just 1.7 per cent. Bennelong again emerges as the litmus test seat: Labor can take comfort in the likelihood that it will swing heavily to them in John Howard’s absence. The next seat up the pendulum is Petrie in northern Brisbane, where Labor currently leads by 2.3 per cent.
Labor supporters might assume that federal politics will now follow the precedent established time and again at state level, where Labor enjoyed landslide re-election wins after establishing themselves in power. However, the historical record at the federal level offers the unhappy precedent of first-term swings against every post-war government (though only in 1998 was it greater than 1.7 per cent). I have a high enough opinion of Malcolm Turnbull to imagine he can steer the party clear of many of the obstacles that have faced it at state level, should the party be sensible enough to make him leader. Whoever takes the mantle, they will face the severe difficulty of a party room dominated by members from Western Australia, whose sensitivity to the national mood is indicated by today’s front page headline in The West Australian: “WA Libs demand party stands by WorkChoices”.
|
26.5 Batman 25.4 Grayndler 24.1 Throsby 23.6 Melbourne 23.3 Wills 22.0 Gellibrand 21.2 Scullin 21.0 Chifley 21.0 Gorton 21.0 Watson 20.0 Port Adelaide 20.0 Sydney |
New England 24.6 (IND vs NAT) Mallee 21.6 |
|
19.5 Calwell 19.2 Blaxland 18.9 Fowler 18.5 Cunningham 17.0 Reid 16.4 Hunter 15.9 Newcastle 15.8 Lalor 15.6 Denison 15.6 Fraser 15.3 Maribyrnong 15.3 Werriwa 15.1 Shortland |
Murray 18.3 O’Connor 16.6 Kennedy 15.9 (IND vs ALP) Riverina 15.7 |
|
14.9 Oxley 13.9 Prospect 13.7 Hotham 13.6 Kingsford Smith 13.5 Capricornia 13.3 Charlton 13.1 Lingiari 12.5 Barton 12.5 Griffith 12.3 Holt 12.0 Rankin 11.8 Canberra 11.2 Banks |
Moncrieff 14.4 Curtin 14.3 Bradfield 13.6 Maranoa 13.0 Mackellar 12.6 Parkes 12.4 Mitchell 11.4 Calare 11.3 Farrer 11.3 Fadden 10.4 |
|
9.5 Corio 9.5 Fremantle 9.5 Richmond 9.4 Perth 9.2 Jagajaga |
Warringah 9.5 Moore 9.3 Barker 9.1 Pearce 9.1 Indi 9.0 |
|
8.7 Bruce 8.6 Ballarat 8.6 Lilley 8.6 Lyons 8.5 Adelaide 8.0 Melbourne Ports |
Kooyong 8.9 Tangney 8.8 Berowra 8.7 McPherson 8.7 Lyne 8.4 Wide Bay 8.3 Groom 8.1 |
|
7.9 Isaacs 7.8 Makin 7.5 Chisholm 7.4 Lowe 7.4 Macquarie 7.2 Parramatta 7.1 Lindsay 7.0 Brisbane |
Flinders 7.8 Wannon 7.3 Cook 7.1 |
|
6.9 Wakefield 6.1 Brand 6.0 Bendigo |
Higgins 6.8 Mayo 6.8 Casey 6.1 |
| 5.1 Hindmarsh |
Forrest 5.8 Gippsland 5.7 Menzies 5.7 Goldstein 5.6 Canning 5.4 North Sydney 5.2 Aston 5.1 |
|
4.9 Blair 4.8 Bonner 4.8 Moreton 4.7 Leichhardt 4.6 Kingston 4.5 Franklin 4.1 Dobell 4.1 Eden-Monaro |
McMillan 4.9 Greenway 4.6 |
|
3.7 Longman 3.5 Dawson 3.1 Forde |
Grey 3.9 Ryan 3.8 Wentworth 3.7 Dunkley 3.5 Gilmore 3.4 Hume 3.4 |
|
2.6 Flynn 2.4 Page 2.3 Petrie |
Boothby 2.9 Fairfax 2.6 Fisher 2.6 |
|
1.7 Bennelong 1.7 Deakin 1.5 Braddon 1.4 Hasluck |
Hughes 1.8 Kalgoorlie 1.6 Cowan 1.4 Hinkler 1.2 Paterson 1.2 Stirling 1.1 Cowper 1.0 Sturt 1.0 |
|
0.9 Bass 0.9 Corangamite 0.8 Solomon 0.5 Robertson 0.4 Herbert |
La Trobe 0.5 McEwen 0.5 Macarthur 0.4 Bowman 0.02 Swan 0.02 Dickson 0.01 |
720 Comments
Pages: « 1 … 10 11 [12] 13 14 … 15 » Show All
I still don’t get how the ABC website says Labor will win 6 of the ‘close’ seats when in some of them postals haven’t been counted yet. I’ll give them 1 but think they won’t get the other 5, plus probably not Robertson. I think they’ll end up with 79 seats.
I know the Libs don’t want to look in disarray for too long, but with a few seats undecided, why aren’t they waiting a few more days for the leadership vote?
The Nats are choosing their leader (if they can find one) on Monday, which seems more sensible.
Hunstundho Says:
“Sorry to be off topic - but noticed that Rudd arrived here in Canberra in an airforce jet. How did he get around when in opposition? was it on commercial airlines?”
Yes, on commercial airlines (VIP service though) and sometimes hiring private planes. Opposition MPs dont get all that many perks, they use cabs mostly too (though with commercial contract services for the VIP cab service).
There was a cute meet-the-neighbours scene the other night on Skynews too. On Sunday morning Kev and Therese’s suburban street was full of security, government cars etc - and the journos interviewed the neighbours on the street, on how they felt about “Living Next-Door to Kevin”
I reckon that whether or not Turnbull gets it will depend on how much of the Howard agenda they are willing to dump. Turnbull has said publically what he would dump and therefore, having laid his cards on the table, if that is too much for other mp’s to go there, they would then vote for Nelson I suspect. Mind you too, that although he has had experience prior to joining parliament, Turnbull has only had one full term in parliament, whereas Nelson has had more than that I think. More parliamentary experience ought to count for something. Since I am a left leaning Labor voter, I can speculate on their leadership with an open mind, I don’t care who bloody gets in
Seajay (502),
Any increase in the House of Representatives wuld have to be to c180 because it must be twice the size of the Senate, and the original states must have the same number of senators each at each election. The next step for the Senate is thus 88 (6 states by 14, plus the 4 territory senators).
Any referendum to remove this nexus will be rightly defeated, as was the 1967 attempt even though it had the support of both major parties, by the Australian people who have defeated every attempt to reduce the power of the Senate.
Seajay 502 - I have also been thinking maybe it’s time to look at the size of Federal Parliament. The House of Reps has to stay about a 2:1 ratio to the Senate according to the Constitution I think (thus the expansion from ~125 to ~150 when the Senate went from 10 per state to 12).
The Northern Territory may be seen to be “over-represented” in the Lower House with 2 seats but with a population of ~200,000 more of its people are either under 18 or not enrolled in the NT (more transient non-aboriginal population than other jurisdictions). It certainly is “under-represented” in the Senate (as is the ACT) in comparison with Tasmania.
The Statehood proposal for the NT in 1998 included a formula for increasing Senate representation as NT’s population inevitably increased.
I think bothe the ACT and NT should have more Senators, which would then allow a “two-for-one” increase in the Lower House. This also would help prevent rural seats around the country becoming bigger and bigger in area, and even more unwieldy for their travel-weary MPs.
Of interest is what could happen on the 2007 vote if you increase the NT/ACT Senate numbers. (obviously things would be different with bigger campaigns by minor parties and lots of soul-searching by the majors on preferences)
NT - 2 gave 1 CLP, 1 ALP
- 3 gives 1 CLP, 2 ALP
- 4 gives 2 CLP, 2 ALP
- 5 gives 2 CLP, 2 ALP, 1 GRN probably
ACT - 2 gave 1 LIB, 1 ALP
- 3 gives 1 LIB, 1 ALP, 1 GRN
- 4 gives 1 LIB, 2 ALP, 1 GRN
- 5 gives 2 LIB, 2 ALP, 1 GRN
I think I will send this to Antony Green and ask if he can put up Senate Calculators for the NT and ACT with different numbers of Senators.
#551 I don’t think the ABC has given any doubtful seats definitely to the ALP (apart from Bennelong). It simply says they’re “ahead” in some seats, and a swag are listed as “too close to call”.
Swan, Bowman, Herbert and Dickson seems the tightest races.
Here’s the latest:
85.3 Bowman LIB 8.9 50.0 8.9% to ALP ALP AHEAD
19:54 85.1 Corangamite LIB 5.3 50.5 5.8% to ALP ALP AHEAD
17:49 87.7 Dickson LIB 8.9 50.2 8.7% to ALP LIB AHEAD
15:18 83.8 Flynn NAT 7.7 50.4 8.1% to ALP ALP AHEAD
19:04 85.3 Herbert LIB 6.2 50.1 6.3% to ALP ALP AHEAD
16:09 84.6 La Trobe LIB 5.8 50.5 5.3% to ALP LIB AHEAD
18:08 85.0 Macarthur LIB 11.2 50.5 10.7% to ALP LIB AHEAD
19:39 82.3 McEwen LIB 6.4 50.5 5.9% to ALP LIB AHEAD
20:04 82.2 Robertson LIB 6.9 50.6 7.5% to ALP ALP AHEAD
14:48 81.4 Solomon LIB 2.8 50.5 3.3% to ALP ALP AHEAD
18:29 83.6 Swan ALP 0.1 50.1 0.2% to LIB LIB AHEAD
There’s certainly going to be a smorgasbord of marginals at the next election. It’ll keep both sides on their toes, and that’s a good thing.
There are currently 9 “close” seats on the AEC website.
I’d give Labor 3 - Corangamite, Flynn and Solomon - with a 50/50 chance of holding Robertson (Neal seems to be doing pretty well on the pre-polls but we need to see what happens with the postals). The rest (Swan, Dickson, Macarthur, La Trobe, Bowman and Herbert) are gone.
That comes to 82 or 83 seats overall, then (not far from my original prediction of 81…)
Onya, Rain. I was having a similarly dark teatime of the soul when I started getting the reports of the shift back to the LNP, and wanted to either run screaming from the room, hurl the computer through the window, give myself a stiff upper cut for not being able to follow what was happening on the AEC site, brain various people for frightening the bejeasus out of me about the over all result and Bennelong in particular. Like you, post vent, if Labor have won by one (that being Bennelong), that’s enough to start turning the place around. I think that’s true even if globally things get grim, economically and climactically.
535 - They could still win if Robb launches his legal challenge against the inelligible candidates
Glen and Seajay
I strongly agree on your comments about the Senate. Tasmania’s over-representation vis-a vis Northern Territory and ACT is undemocratic. And Brian Harradine’s antics prove that it can get rorted. Consider even “normal” government spending - why should there be a freight equalisation scheme for businesses in Tasmania to get goods to the mainland, when places like the Kimberley or NT face far higher freight costs, yet get no assistance. And it allows a sense of “unreality” about Tasmanian economic management to continue. It should be stopped.
Trouble is, under our not-so-great constitution, a change would need to be passed in a majority of States, including small ones like SA, WA and Tas! I can’t see them voting for a change that reduces their influence.
The ghost of times past. No, No, not the Narrowing!
Get thee behind me, Satan!
#560 Good point PICH! And then there’d be a by-election in Wentworth, and George Newhouse could defeat the new Liberal Leader, Turnbull. Turnbull’s deputy, Andrew Robb, would then become Liberal Leader, this bringing to fruition a long-planned coup.
How’s that for a conspiracy theory?
I suspect Robb and Caroline Overington have been working on this plan together.
does it matter who becomes the lib leader tomorrow? how likely are they to have a spill before the next election?
A small margin in seats is better than a large margin in seats in terms of discipline during the life of the current parliament. Fewer troublemakers with nothing to do. A small margin means fewer incumbent advantages in the next election. A small margin at this stage of the count might mean more seats on a very small swing to Labour in the next election. Still I would have liked to have seen a bigger margin.
Definitely hope the conservatives get their act together at state/territory level. Good government definitely needs having oppositions capable of putting the frighteners into governments. Current situation is appalling.
ACT libs remoured to be thinking about a leadership change. It must be about time. They haven’t had one for a couple of months.
Glen: “No but if a religions discriminates based on sex then the State where it has the power should ban such acts ie hijab/burka IMHO. But apart from that i’ve got no problems with religion, though i don’t believe in any.”
Ok, fair enough. So, should male circumcision also be banned for Jews and Muslims? That practice discriminates against men in those religions… Do you think the state should intervene there?
I’ll stick my neck out and predict Labor wins Solomon, Flynn, Herbert and Bowman. I don’t think they need to worry about Corrangamite or Robertson.
Unfortunately, Swan will go to the Liberals, and Dutton will retain Dickson.
Agreed, Boerwar. The margins.
It doesn’t matter, because we have seen what happens to those with even the largest of margins.
Small margins are good for the soul. And the Government.
Our Government, says proudly.
“I think they’ll end up with 79 seats.”
Do you have a private raincloud following you around LTEP? Amazing stuff.
Latest background on the Queensland Libs debacle.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/no-factional-war-games-nicholls/2007/11/28/1196036975167.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lHHEvedhZ-4 hehehe Sir Joh lol!
566
John Ryan - i think perhaps we should stick to politics and the polls
Steve can’t they just bring Dave Tollner over to Brisbane and sort it out i mean the CLP is a good model for the Tory parties over in Queensland.
Although I have found LTEP’s extreme pessimism a bit annoying at times I am in agreement on this one - 79 seats.
Dave Tollner is going to be busy.. still being the Member for Solomon, by about 100 votes.
“Anyone know why there is a separate independent contest for deputy? Couldn’t the Libs benefit from Turnbull and Nelson occupying the two leadership positions?”
I presume that whichever one lost the leadership could then run for deputy. Can’t see why not. Have either Turnbill or Nelson ruled it out?
I doubt that Turnbull would run for deputy if he didn’t get leader, but Nelson might. The MSM don’t seem to have thought about a Turnbull/Nelson team (or vice-versa). I’d guess that Nelson might have more support for deputy that Bishop or Robb.
It’s not pessimism, it’s doing the maths, if you go in and calculate how the votes will go down in each vote type for the close seats I think you’ll see most of the close ones will go to the Libs, except Solomon. I’d also throw Robertson in since they haven’t started counting postals yet. That gives you 79 seats.
I think this election will also help us put to rest the “You can’t win an election with only 48% of the 2PP” nonsense. If you calculate precisely the number of votes needed in the close seats to put them in front by 1 vote in each seat you’ll see they could do it with 48% or so of the 2PP. In the end, that’s all that matters, that you get the majority of seats.
Is there a chance that Turnbull could be further to the left than Rudd?? Could he take the Libs on a step to the left while Rudd takes Labor skipping to the right?? Could they perhaps cross each other? Who would I vote for then???? I’m an avowed Lefty and could never vote Liberal. But if Liberal was more left than Labor……….??? All my paradigms are shifting!!!!!!!!!!!
Neilbris, they’d still be the same Liberal Party, don’t believe the hype.
572 [Steve can’t they just bring Dave Tollner over to Brisbane and sort it out i mean the CLP is a good model for the Tory parties over in Queensland.]
I don’t think so Glen, after their performance at both state and Federal level,it appears that the only way to stop the factional brawling of the Queensland Liberal Party is to disendorse the whole eight Liberal members, let them all lose their seats and start from scratch with a new lot.
Steve @ 570 ‘Langbroek’ means ‘long pants’ literally but really meant ‘adult’ in the days when kids wore short pants. This could be relevant.
Don’t forget. Chaser’s War.
I’ve booked my break.
Steve i’d rather have a Country Liberal Party in Queensland State wise and a Federal Liberal and Federal National Party.
Steve i voted for Mickey Mouse i think they are a joke, Bruce Flegg makes Paul Omodei look good and that’s terrible. They dont understand if they act competent and united they could win office eventually, never if they continue with this bull butter.
A Turnbull Leadership will not be the problem for the Libs. It will be the followship!
You mean Tony Abbott GG?
Im going to stick my neck out a say the ALP will now start closing on all the seats. After all, most have a swing against the LIbs overall - and there’s only so many postals.
Evidence at hand: ALP has pulled ahead in robertson and herbert since last i looked at 6pm
582 I think that Flegg might actually be the pick of the crop. The rest of them are showing all thee intestinal fortitude of Costello when it comes to leadership issues.
Lefty E, yes it does look like Colbran and Neal are getting very lucky. It’ll be very interesting to see how the provisionals and absentees go. If they’re above 50% for the ALP they should be home in those seats (hopefully).
Did a quick calculation and figured the Coalition could currently be in front in a majority of seats with a change of only 9583 votes, and a 2PP of 47.01%.
Glen, there is no way the Nat/Libs will win office in Qld in the foreseeable future. Both leaders a dreadful (Seeney is a disgraceful, barely literate redneck and Flegg is incompetent and barely visible). One of the problems they face is that the shifting demographics, the depopulation of the bush and the growth of the south east will make it nearly impossible for a National Party dominated coalition to win power. The southeast will not cop a National premier and without the southeast you will never govern. The only chance is for the Libs to become the dominant conservative force - which wont happen anytime soon. Amalgamation isn’t the answer either as it would just mean a National takeover of the Libs which would simply disenfranchise what’s left of the Libs urban voter base.
Glen,
Not really. Who is the potential leader tearing up the Howard legacy on economics, Work Choices, The Sorry discussion. I reckon there still might be some MPs on the Lib side that still believe in the policies they have espoused forever.
What do they owe Turnbull?
Lefty E @ 585.
Agree, Labor will improve in those seats where absentees have yet to be counted. Not counting anything in or out but watch for movement in seats like McEwan.
587 Lose the election please - that’s a “if your aunty had small spherical things below the waste she’d be your uncle” type statement.
I could be wrong but noone said you can’t win the election with 48% TPP. They said it was highly unlikely. I stilll believe this to be the case.
Imagine Warwick Parer the former Senator involved in a shareholding conflict of interest scandal who refused to step down from the ministry having the hide to tell anyone to step down. Talk about do as I say and not as I do.
DEFIANT Liberal leader Bruce Flegg appears to have only delayed the inevitable, with party president Warwick Parer now calling on him to step down.
Mr Parer was this afternoon attempting to contact Dr Flegg to issue him with the demand to resign the leadership, in the wake of a challenge by Member for Clayfield Tim Nicholls.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22833800-952,00.html
Warwick Parer was a stong influence in JWH’s embracing Nuclear power
Remember, they used to share a unit in Canberra when JWH was opposition leader
594 And then there was this.
http://dailyflute.com/?p=829
With all these Lib challenges going on, do they have any opp leaders in this country at present?
William - my apologies for the language, but I feel strongly - so I will try again…
Just watched the Chaser, which was all very entertaining until they showed Aboriginal people with their (silently bowed) backs to Howard.
I feel ashamed to be associated as a nation with such harshness and cruelty.
Good Riddance.
Lose the Election Please, since you consistently predicted that Howard would win the election, and took great pleasure in speading doom and gloom about Labor’s chances, why should we pay any attention to your pessimistic prognostications now?
BTW-
Wiliam : is the Eff word not acceptable on Pb??
If Malcolm wants to win over the trogladytes in the Libs he might start by playing this Connie Francis classic. Music to calm the savage beasts and all that.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=TjHJ_snG3RI
Pages: « 1 … 10 11 [12] 13 14 … 15 » Show All