Below is a preliminary Mackerras pendulum/table based on current results. The first thing to note is that the Liberals seem to be enjoying one-way traffic in late counting. They have taken the lead in Dickson, Swan and Bowman, appear home-and-hosed in La Trobe and are strongly placed in Macarthur. An 862 vote lead in McEwen would also normally be a basis on which to claim victory, but there are reports of “the discovery of about 3000 votes wrongly sent to neighbouring Scullin” which don’t seem to have been factored in yet. Only in Herbert has late counting actively improved Labor’s position. They are also keeping their noses in front in Solomon, although the imminent count of electronically lodged military votes might narrow the gap. If these trends continue Labor will end up with a relatively disappointing haul of 84 seats, against 64 for the Coalition and two independents. In that case it would take a loss of only nine seats at the next election for Labor to lose its majority, which would occur on a uniform swing of just 1.7 per cent. Bennelong again emerges as the litmus test seat: Labor can take comfort in the likelihood that it will swing heavily to them in John Howard’s absence. The next seat up the pendulum is Petrie in northern Brisbane, where Labor currently leads by 2.3 per cent.
Labor supporters might assume that federal politics will now follow the precedent established time and again at state level, where Labor enjoyed landslide re-election wins after establishing themselves in power. However, the historical record at the federal level offers the unhappy precedent of first-term swings against every post-war government (though only in 1998 was it greater than 1.7 per cent). I have a high enough opinion of Malcolm Turnbull to imagine he can steer the party clear of many of the obstacles that have faced it at state level, should the party be sensible enough to make him leader. Whoever takes the mantle, they will face the severe difficulty of a party room dominated by members from Western Australia, whose sensitivity to the national mood is indicated by today’s front page headline in The West Australian: “WA Libs demand party stands by WorkChoices”.
|
26.5 Batman 25.4 Grayndler 24.1 Throsby 23.6 Melbourne 23.3 Wills 22.0 Gellibrand 21.2 Scullin 21.0 Chifley 21.0 Gorton 21.0 Watson 20.0 Port Adelaide 20.0 Sydney |
New England 24.6 (IND vs NAT) Mallee 21.6 |
|
19.5 Calwell 19.2 Blaxland 18.9 Fowler 18.5 Cunningham 17.0 Reid 16.4 Hunter 15.9 Newcastle 15.8 Lalor 15.6 Denison 15.6 Fraser 15.3 Maribyrnong 15.3 Werriwa 15.1 Shortland |
Murray 18.3 O’Connor 16.6 Kennedy 15.9 (IND vs ALP) Riverina 15.7 |
|
14.9 Oxley 13.9 Prospect 13.7 Hotham 13.6 Kingsford Smith 13.5 Capricornia 13.3 Charlton 13.1 Lingiari 12.5 Barton 12.5 Griffith 12.3 Holt 12.0 Rankin 11.8 Canberra 11.2 Banks |
Moncrieff 14.4 Curtin 14.3 Bradfield 13.6 Maranoa 13.0 Mackellar 12.6 Parkes 12.4 Mitchell 11.4 Calare 11.3 Farrer 11.3 Fadden 10.4 |
|
9.5 Corio 9.5 Fremantle 9.5 Richmond 9.4 Perth 9.2 Jagajaga |
Warringah 9.5 Moore 9.3 Barker 9.1 Pearce 9.1 Indi 9.0 |
|
8.7 Bruce 8.6 Ballarat 8.6 Lilley 8.6 Lyons 8.5 Adelaide 8.0 Melbourne Ports |
Kooyong 8.9 Tangney 8.8 Berowra 8.7 McPherson 8.7 Lyne 8.4 Wide Bay 8.3 Groom 8.1 |
|
7.9 Isaacs 7.8 Makin 7.5 Chisholm 7.4 Lowe 7.4 Macquarie 7.2 Parramatta 7.1 Lindsay 7.0 Brisbane |
Flinders 7.8 Wannon 7.3 Cook 7.1 |
|
6.9 Wakefield 6.1 Brand 6.0 Bendigo |
Higgins 6.8 Mayo 6.8 Casey 6.1 |
| 5.1 Hindmarsh |
Forrest 5.8 Gippsland 5.7 Menzies 5.7 Goldstein 5.6 Canning 5.4 North Sydney 5.2 Aston 5.1 |
|
4.9 Blair 4.8 Bonner 4.8 Moreton 4.7 Leichhardt 4.6 Kingston 4.5 Franklin 4.1 Dobell 4.1 Eden-Monaro |
McMillan 4.9 Greenway 4.6 |
|
3.7 Longman 3.5 Dawson 3.1 Forde |
Grey 3.9 Ryan 3.8 Wentworth 3.7 Dunkley 3.5 Gilmore 3.4 Hume 3.4 |
|
2.6 Flynn 2.4 Page 2.3 Petrie |
Boothby 2.9 Fairfax 2.6 Fisher 2.6 |
|
1.7 Bennelong 1.7 Deakin 1.5 Braddon 1.4 Hasluck |
Hughes 1.8 Kalgoorlie 1.6 Cowan 1.4 Hinkler 1.2 Paterson 1.2 Stirling 1.1 Cowper 1.0 Sturt 1.0 |
|
0.9 Bass 0.9 Corangamite 0.8 Solomon 0.5 Robertson 0.4 Herbert |
La Trobe 0.5 McEwen 0.5 Macarthur 0.4 Bowman 0.02 Swan 0.02 Dickson 0.01 |
720 Comments
Pages: « 1 … 11 12 [13] 14 15 » Show All
The Senator is calling you home LTEP!
Jen,
Eff is not a word!
Union rule 26. “Every employee must win ‘Worker of the Week’ at least once, regardless of gross incompetence, obesity, or rank odor.” Heh heh heh heh.
I suppose that means Sharron Burrows would have at least won it once lol.
Jen,
I watched the chaser and found the backs turned moment to be worthy of laughter as much as anything else on their show
Kevin Rudd made no mention of his intention to apologise before the election, now he confirms he will apologise at some point before he is sworn in
Any conservative voter who was persuaded by his me-toosim will feel tricked today
Mr. Squiggle, Garrett did say they’d change it all once they got in, we were warned werent we??
Aaaaaaaaaaah, the Chasers!
His way!
605 Glen, yes, the mean and tricky days are over.
I tend to think that some people those who have never experienced a Labor government in their voting lives voted Liberal this election due to them being unsure or concerned about what Labor stood for or who were scared off by the Liberal scare campaign. Next election this may change, if the economy holds up.
Turnbull if elected leader will be a formidable opponent, however,as he has charisma, attractiveness and an ability to speak to the common person. Although i can’t appreciate his background and what he stands for, Labor will have to be on it’ guard over the next three years.
Although on saying this they maybe able to wedge him on health, education and industrial relations. Not being a Queenslander will also harm his chances.
Well, fellow bludgers, you’ve continued to be a source of useful information, occasionallly funny insults, and bloody good company especially for a mostly lurker. Thank you very much, and thank you, William.
I suppose not saying sorry was a non-core promise LOL!
Bulldust Mr Squiggle Rudd mentioned it last week in an interview, although he was asked six times whether he would he finally answered yes.
GG
It’s not Efff I was moderated for ( even though the F Word is used by DH Lawrence and JJJ and everything.)
I hate being censored.
Loved the final song on the chaser and now its goodbye to that Pri*k.
The Weirdest of Oz.
A new conservative alliance is needed to challenge Labor
Letters Blog | November 28, 2007 | 30 Comments
MOST TALKED ABOUT
THE NEXT STEPS
THE entirely predictable landslide to Labor has occurred because the Liberals became a soft-left political party.
They not only moved to the centre, they crossed the centre line.
Accordingly, Australian voters were given no distinctive choice _ whoever you voted for you got a soft-left government. Liberal and Labor policies were the same. So Australia voted against the tired, lacklustre party and for the newly invigorated one.
The landslide result is good for Australia for two reasons. First, it gives Kevin Rudd a mandate (and an obligation) to introduce or continue the Liberal Party policies he stole.
Second, it partly disposes of my greatest concern _ the power of the Left in a Labor government. Mr Rudd’s victory is so complete that it will be very difficult for Labor to replace him with Julia Gillard in the foreseeable future, or at all.
And what of the Liberals? They are finished as a political party. They have lost everything throughout Australia. The time has now come for a conservative rejuvenation. Conservatives all over Australia must join together to build a new conservative alliance.
Despite the fact that we have wall-to-wall socialist governments, I believe that Australians are essentially conservative people. We need a new party that actually offers them distinctive policies _ and policies that are unashamedly to the Right. We need a party that offers strong policies which are, by definition, politically incorrect. We need policies that are strong on law and order, immigration, support of the family unit, support of marriage, proper education, the defeat of multiculturism, support for country people and, above all, close ties with the US.
In short, we need to become patriots.
Peter Faris, QC
Melbourne, Vic
Comment by me. Actually accepted.
Peter Faris.
What a curiously wrong footed, poorly judged, strangely reasoned , astonishing piece of work.
In the face of the choice of the people. Only recently, as I remember.
One part struck a chord.
‘And what of the Liberals? They are finished as a political party’.
Peter Faris, you are the ultimate in vacillation.
Having wormed your way into my respect, at a certain point in the Haneef affair, you have absolutely lost it.
The True Un Believer. Of the wish and intention of the electorate.
Now hear this, Peter Faris.
Howard and Company and the dirty direction you outline, as your preference, are out.
It’s over.
Got it?
Written and spoken by an Australian, and proud of it.
Again.
Irons ahead by 153 votes in Swan, he should get a vote tomorrow 4 Julie.
They aren’t missing. What a beat up.
You will find that Scullin have a pre-poll centre near the divisional boundary with McEwen. They issued over 3000 McEwen pre-poll votes that have yet to be exchanged and counted. That will occur in the coming days.
They also issued a lot of pre-poll votes for neighbouring Jaga Jaga. It happens in the real world.
Marky Mark,
Rudd squeaked out an answer on the issue of an apology after she was pressed by a radio show. She flim-flammed for a moment before giving an answer that I still can’t work out.
For God’s sake, it was hardly part of the me-too-ism platform….
,,,,,and yet this issue has headline status in Victoria via The Age, it has priority over Kyoto issues, before he is even sworn in
This is an indication of how he will operate, tell the people one thing, do another
Missing ballots-
It’ like a Labor preselection ballot.
Mr Squiggle that description sounds a bit like Jim Hacker?
You will find that saying sorry has always been Labor’ policy.
State parliaments have done it.
Agree does not deserve front page news.
Yes Glen
But at least Jim hacker was well advised and had a sense of humour
All kevin Rein has is a media consultancy in his corner and a good make up artist
it worked though…..
INtersting point Marky,
Are you saying it is OK to have something in your long term policy, avoid dicsussion of it during an election and still be justified in doing it???
That’s what JWH did on Workchoices,,,
The differnece is JWH had been a known conservative on Industrial relations issues for about 25 years,
The only thing I know for certain about Kevin Rein is that he married well and likes the taste of his own earwax
Mr Squiggle -
you say that you laughed at the silent and profound symbol of the indigeneous people turning their backs on the leader of the governement of the (yester) Day. Good for you.
Feel proud.
Oh look Mal is going to “meeee-tooooo”
http://www2.skynews.com.au/news/article.aspx?id=203667
Saying sorry and workchoices, surely their is no comparision.
Sorry is a symbolic gesture and if you wish to continue on with this line maybe you should read Malcolm’ comments regarding what labor is doing.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/28/2103199.htm?site=elections/federal/2007
Harry ‘Snapper’ Organs at 609.
You are surely not considering retirement?
Kev’s going to kick the hospitals into gear, if you need anything new.
Besides, it ain’t over till it’s over.
Bennelong awaits.
Watch out Mr Squiggle they may want your land and the house you sleep in, watch out the money in your bank may be taken as well. What next.
Marky,
The first thing that Turnbull should apologise for is the colour scheme of his house. Looks like the entrance to an Oxford St. bath house.
Jen.
its not pride I feel, its relief,
Imagine a democratic process that could find a statement of reconcilation that takes into account the reality of:
1) acts of colonisation and dispossession
2) a century of time passing between Federation and today.
That would be worth voting for
Please take into account the following:
1) 1 in 4 Australians are born overseas- exactly what should they apologise for? (sorry for coming here? building a new life, surviving the civil wars I left behind?)
2) At the last census, the median Australian age was 33 (ie born in the mid 1970’s)
What should they apologies for (sorry I was Born?, sorry I breathe? )
No Government can claim to speak for all Australians and apologise at the same time, its just laughable
“The difference is JWH had been a known conservative on Industrial relations issues for about 25 years”
I thought “conservative” meant disinclined to change, or supportive of the status quo.
It would be fair to say that Howard was a “radical” rather than a “conservative” on IR.
Liberals who support a backdown on WorkChoices are actually taking a conservative position.
Howard is (was?) genuinely “conservative”, though, on many issues, including the monarchy, opposition to gay marriage, support for tougher national security laws, refusal to say sorry to aborigines.
At least he has the guts and compassion within himself to do so, unlike Howard Squiggle who still believes that aboriginal people are primitive and never existed.
Well when he does it you stick your fingers in your ears and you wont know its happened.
630 – Antonio
The correct term is “reactionary” – Howard strove to set IR back well over a hundred years. To a time before workers collectively fought for – and secured – their rights.
Dollar $weets, anyone?
632,
And then there’ll be earwax for everyone.
If you have a family Mr Squiggle, I ask this question, how would like it if a government offical came around and took your children away?
Lose The Election Please: Where would we be without your daily pessimism?
Even if Rudd had won by 40 seats, you would have found something to bitch about!
Glen: I don’t take pleasure in Kim Wilkie losing his seat, but that’s politics for you, there are winners and losers!
Lateline,
Monday conservatives
Tuesday again one liberal and a conservative commentator
Wednesday another conservative
Lateline not much has changed.
So which bit have I got wrong?
How does it make sense for a government in 2007 to apologise for events that are at least 50 years old?
My expectation is that a consensus government would work towards finding an expression of reconciliation that works for the full community, and doesn’t just represnt the twits on the left who climb up onto the cross next to the real people who suffered
ie indiginous australians
I’ve given up on Lateline: pretentious crap! Tony Jones is as much of a hack as Barry Cassidy. It’s Uncle Kerry for me, thanks very much!
Don’t bother arguing with Mr Squiggle – he can’t see that an apology for past wrongs and hurt will acheive anything. He’ll ahve to vote one nation next election now that the Libs have me-tooed on ‘Sorry’.
“Malcolm is a primal force of nature.”
Would that be a cyclone, drought, or an asteroid impact?
Marko,
He is about to learn about gravity, methinks
Antonio
Depends on which part of conservative you are talking about. Yes conservative can means doing nothing.
But in the case of Workplace relation, “doing nothing” means letting market forces dictate what a person is paid, therefore only 1 employer and 1 employee is involved, no unions, and if the employee does not like what the employer says, he goes somewhere else.
Good point: the fat cat who sits in the corner and does no work gets another job and is forced to work, get paid by performance etc
bad point: Evil Employers, scare campaign etc
You would think that some people are positively drooling with anticipation of Rudd doing the first thing they can complain about. Until he gets sworn in and starts doing things, some people need to calm down a bit. He will make mistakes in due time, and you can bash him to your hearts content!
Robertson much safer for Labor: Belinda Neale now more than 900 votes ahead
Labor 108 ahead in Herbert: going down to the wire!
Unfortunately my prediction of Labor winning 79 seats is looking mare and more a reality. Much preferred when it was 83. Sometimes I don’t mind being wrong
Marko@641
I think the Mad Monk’s problem is that Turnbull assesses issues makes a plan and gets thing done, he thinks and acts. The Mad Monk can’t wipe crap off his bottom without a political angle, funding, lunch, and a staffer.
Try this, if and when in doubt.
John Howard, Australian conservative
(by Dr Geoff Robinson)
Dr Geoff Robinson is a lecturer in Australian Studies and Politics at Deakin University.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/25/2100432.htm
How many postal votes are there?! Who’s doing the counting – Stevie Wonder?. How long does it take for f**k’s sake. It’s been about 4 days since election night, it’s not like they’re counting every vote in the nation. Geez, hurry up guys!
Why doesn’t Tony Abbott admit it, Malcolm Turnbull is an absolute ar******, good to see Abbott and Turnbull in years ahead feuding.
Abbott put simply is not electable and he should realise it.
Pages: « 1 … 11 12 [13] 14 15 » Show All